A Line in the Sand – Victory or Death for Maryland Racing?

18 12 2009

I know things have been rather quiet here on the horse racing front lately.  I’ve obviously taken a bit of a sabbatical following the fever pitched excitement of the 2009 season, and admittedly have been somewhat devoted to other causes in recent weeks (Roll Tide).  Today though, it’s time to discuss a cause much more close to home and much more dear to my heart: Maryland thoroughbred racing.

On Saturday, racing enthusiasts in the “Old Line State” will have a chance to take in both an important race for the future of Maryland, as well as to attend an important rally for the same cause.  The irony of this being that an important date for a state that remembers itself as the “Old Line State” may well be our Alamo.

If you know any of the folklore surrounding that pivotal battle for Texan Independence in the 19th century that resulted in the deaths of mythical figures Jim Bowie and Davey Crockett, then you no doubt are familiar with the moment when Colonel William Barret Travis, himself just 27-years-old when the siege of the Alamo began in February 1836, purportedly drew the infamous “line in the sand” after declaring to the 180-or-so defenders of the Texas mission that no help was on its way, and that those that chose to stay would most likely perish for their cause.  Depending on which version of events is retold, either any man unwilling to sacrifice their life was asked to step forward, or any man willing to do so came forward.  No matter which version is told, all but one indicated their devotion to their duties, even in the face of certain death.  They resolved that they had been pushed as far as they would go, and that from here on out they would live by the salutation their young commander had offered the nation in his pledge for reinforcement, supply, and liberty:  “Victory or Death!”

Colonel William Barret Travis and the "Line in the Sand" at the Alamo. Depending on which version of the "Line in the Sand" story is told, either those willing to risk their lives move forward, or those unwilling to do so moved forward. Either way, apart from one man, the garrison resolved to stay where they were and slug it out with the feared Mexican Army that had already nearly surrounded the fort and begun siege style artillery bombardment for days on end.

While human life is obviously not directly at stake in Maryland racing at the moment, one could easily argue that the livelihood of many folks, and horses, is very much up in the air.  And at some point, wasn’t livelihood and the ability to prosper central to what many of those defending the Alamo perimeter were standing for those fateful “13 days of glory” at San Antonio, TX?  I like to think so.  Especially considering the number of “volunteers” who answered the call from neighboring states to fight for the rights of others in the name of liberty.  Think of  Crockett and his Tennessee troopers that defended the palisade near the chapel, thought to be the “weak point” in the outer defenses but perhaps being one of the final positions to fall into enemy hands – the Mexican army having blasted through the North Wall on the opposite side of the perimeter and precipitated a general retreat to the long barracks and chapel courtyard for the “final stand” of the defenders.

Were their other motivators?  Certainly – but for many men of that time, the romantic notion of fighting and giving all for ideals was celebrated and venerated to a level we may struggle to understand properly today.  And for us today, one cannot but help feeling that we are penned up inside some adobe walled fort, a besieging host of problems taking position just outside of our walls, pounding us day and night in a ceaseless bombardment of long-range, destructive forces.  We look outside our walls for the sign of diehards like ourselves rallying to cause of salvation, only to feel time and time again that no help is on its way.

For fans of Maryland racing, that help was supposed to come in the form of slot machines being installed at the local tracks.  After years of wrangling and political infighting, finally the legislature decided to approve “limited slots” – however the issue of where those slots would be located is still, as of yet, unresolved.  All that should be changing shortly though.  Very soon, definitive word will come.  Much like the defenders of the Alamo had been teased with the prospect of reinforcement from Sam Houston’s army or from Colonel Fannin’s troops at Goliad, only to see that hope squashed with news that they were definitively on their own just as the noose the Mexican Army was preparing around the fort tightened, so Maryland racing fans now face the prospect that the slots they “need” may well be going in – just not in any location that stands to benefit the local horse racing industry.

The challenge facing the Maryland racing industry today has been dubbed by some as a “life or death” struggle.  The central issue at hand is the impending vote from the Anne Arundel County Council on the location of slot machines.  The proverbial wisdom being that if the slots are placed at tracks like Laurel Park, that the racing industry might see a boost in purse money that would attract (or at least maintain) horsemen and members of the industry and perhaps stem the tide of talent exiting the area in recent years for the greener pastures of West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Delaware – all fueled with slots inflated purse money waiting to be had.  In short, if the slots are placed in another location, such as the current proposal to install the machines at the Arundel Mills shopping mall, that the nail is in the coffin and it may be a foregone conclusion that the state will lose lucrative and celebrated moments such as the annual running of the Preakness Stakes (one of the largest money-making single days in the entire year for Maryland) to locations that have more support from their local legislatures, if not more support from slots money.

Let me be frank about this:  I don’t think slots are the “salvation” of the horse racing industry in Maryland or across the nation.  At best, I see them as a sort of temporary field dressing or tourniquet that is applied to stop the bleeding until a true remedy can be procured and administered.  I also don’t hold any misguided notions that the ultimate “cure” for racing would likely not come at the price of certain “amputations” to cut off dead limbs in order to preserve the body.  In other words, I understand that we might need to shrink the size of the sport before it’s able to grow healthily again in the future.  I get that, I really do.

That being said, much like Colonel Travis and his predecessor (and early co-commander of the fort, before becoming bed ridden with illness), the famed knife fighter Jim Bowie, were originally ordered to demolish the Alamo and retire from San Antonio and yet wound up falling in love with the mission and calling it the “key to Texas”, so can I not let go of the mystic beauty of Maryland tracks like Laurel Park and Pimlico and feel that I must defend their walls to my last gasp of air.  I know most folks have trouble seeing their beauty, but if residents of the state would only remember their proud history – a history which gave them the Baltimore “Colts” and bore witness to such classic moments as Seabiscuit against War Admiral in the greatest match race in history – then perhaps they too would rally to the cause and draw their own lines in the sand.

Baltimoreans in particular should be sensitive to such occasions.  Recall that it was they who watched an army of Mayflower trucks cart off their precious football franchise, named in honor of the state’s proud thoroughbred racing and breeding tradition, to greener stadiums in Indianapolis during the winter of 1984.  The fans stood helpless, heart-broken, and mystified.  How could it have come to this?   And yet here we stand again in almost the same position.  The Preakness is OUR race.  It’s OUR tradition.  We SHARE it with the rest of the world, but it is OURS….unless of course we turn our back on the entire sport here in the state and allow it to die a slow, cruel death.

For Travis and many of the Alamo defenders, at least death came rather quickly.  With the help of the fort’s defensive artillery batteries, the first rush of the Mexican Army was actually repulsed.  Despite that early success, however, as the Mexican soldiers attempted to shy away from the blasts of deadly cannister and grape-shot that ripped through their lines, they wound up rushing for the safety they found near the base of the North Wall.  A veritable mass of humanity grouping together as columns originally intended to strike 3 separate locations of the fort’s defenses instead converged under fire and found common protection under the guns of the North Wall.  The defenders, you see, could not suppress the barrels of their cannons to shoot the attackers below them at such close range, and instead had to expose themselves by leaning over the wall to fire downward.

Indeed, leaning over the wall to administer a point-blank shotgun blast early in the fight, Colonel Travis was shot in the head and tumbled backwards, landing near the base of the artillery ramp for the North Wall battery.  He died within minutes.  With him went any hope for a unified and well coordinated defensive effort.  From here on out it would be every man for himself.

Colonel William. B. Travis, shown here atop the North Wall in the center of the painting with his sword over his head, reached over the wall to administer a shotgun blast to the mass of Mexican soldiers clamoring underneath. Travis was shot in the head, tumbled backward, and died at the foot of the ramp used to position the artillery pieces of the North Wall battery.

Soon after the death of Travis, the Mexican Army skillfully climbed the North Wall, overwhelmed the defenders there, and then burst through the breach in the wall, allowing entire attacking columns to spill into the interior plaza, effectively outflanking the western and eastern defenses of the perimeter.

In other words, the game was up.  Every position inside the walls had been immediately rendered untenable.  While it was a fight to the finish, the rules were clear.  No quarter was given, even, as we are told, if it was asked.

Diagram of the Alamo defenses. Colonel Travis fell near the artillery position along the North Wall depicted on the left of this map. Crockett's men held the position on the right that connected the South Wall to the Alamo chapel itself. The "last stands" occurred in the long barracks and around the courtyard of the chapel.

The lesson to be learned from this?  The Maryland Legislature and local county level governments (and others…there’s no shortage of guilt to go around) do not seem to appreciate that once our version of the North Wall falls, our entire position, like the Alamo, becomes untenable.  In other words, despite it not being a fix-all for the ills of racing, if Laurel doesn’t get slot machines, then it really may well be our last stand.  If so, god help all of those whose livelihood is made on the backstretch or behind the scenes supporting the sport.  Especially in these economic times.

And don’t, for the love of god, tell me that the politicians of Maryland, whether local or state level,  are “concerned” about the morality of gambling and it’s potential impact on the inner city. Disgraced mayor of Baltimore Sheila Dixon was just recently convicted of using gift cards intended for poor inner city families to purchase lavish gifts for herself and friends.  Yes, this is the face of the corrupt political machine that gets to decide the fate or racing in the state.

The irony here being that both the U.S. Government and the recently declared Independent Govt. of Texas were unable or unwilling to assist the Alamo defenders.  Their memory was not invoked in glorified fashion until weeks later when Sam Houston would annihilate Santa Anna’s army at the battle of San Jacinto.

That’s all well and good.  But Maryland racing does not want to become another state’s rallying cry.  We have no interest in seeing racing in the state become a martyr for racing elsewhere.

So what can you, the reader, do about this?

First, get off your you-know-whats and tell the local councilmen voting on this issue that the slots machines need to be at Laurel Park, where the racing is, rather than at Arundel Mills Mall.  Here’s a few email addresses of council members who will voting on the issue that you can contact to express your opinion:

  • District 1 – Daryl Jones: daryl.jones@aacounty.org
  • District 3 – Ronald C. Dillon: rdillon@aacounty.org
  • District 4 – G. James Benoit: james.benoit@aacounty.org
  • District 5 – Cathleen M. Vitale: cvitale@aacounty.org
  • District 7 – Tricia L. Johnson: tricia.johnson@aacounty.org

Second, and most importantly, get down to the Laurel Park paddock for a rally tomorrow morning (Saturday 12/19/09) at 11 AM.

This may be it folks.  This may well be our “line in the sand.”

Who will stand up with us now?

And while your there, don’t forget to take in a day of beautiful racing action at Laurel Park.  Old man winter just might have a little something to say with the snow expected to fall, but the feature race of the day, the Juvenile Fillies Championship, ought to be a good one.  For the record, here’s my picks that I gave out over on CaseTheRace.com.

I went with #6 Popeye’s Lady (3/1) for the win, although I respect the morning line favorite, #5 Jim’s Prospect (5/2*) that I’ll include her on top in my Exacta play.  Underneath I tend to prefer #2 Molly Molly Molly (10/1) , and #11 Smart Tori (4/1).

  • W- #6 Popeye’s Lady (3/1)
  • P – #5 Jim’s Prospect (5/1*)
  • S – #2 Molly Molly Molly (10/1)
  • Exacta:  5,6 with 2,5,6, 11
  • Trifecta:  6 with 2,5,11 with 2,3,4,5,9, 11

Best of luck to all, and special thanks to those who take the time to contact the Anne Arundel County (MD) Council members listed above and/or attend the rally at the Laurel Park paddock on Saturday morning (12/19) at 11 o’clock AM.


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De Francis Dash – The Race That Wouldn’t Die

23 10 2009

Maryland racing.  It might not get the glamour and top notch billing that it did in it’s prime (a prime that was relevant enough to see the city of Baltimore’s NFL franchise adorned with the name “Colts” in honor of the state’s rich history of racing and thoroughbred breeding), but for homegrown fans like me there’s simply nothing more special than a day of great racing at either Laurel Park or Pimlico. 

This Saturday gives us just such an opportunity with the 19th running of the Grade 1 De Francis Dash along with the undercard $50,000 Find Handicap and the $50,000 Twixt Stakes.  The Dash, it must be noted, is but one of only three remaining Grade 1 races run at Maryland tracks these days – with the others being the Preakness and the Pimlico Special (of Seabiscuit and War Admiral fame), and was not carded last year due to purse shortage concerns. 

Why the focus on Maryland this weekend?  Two reasons really.  Firstly, it’s my “home circuit” – the mystic dirt of home, and one of my original goals when this site was incepted was to do every little bit I could to help promote Maryland racing.  Will it ever return to the level it enjoyed back  in it’s “glory days?”  Probably not, but the fact that it once impacted the naming of an NFL franchise speaks volumes of the distinguished history the area has with respect to horse racing – and if I’m nothing else, I’m a sucker for historical significance. 

Secondly, I’ve simply had Baltimore on the brain lately.  Obviously this has nothing to do with my lowly Orioles (who are only trumped in terms of lowliness by my equally beloved St. Louis Rams…man, thank god I’ve got horse racing and the Alabama Crimson Tide to cheer for).  Instead, I think this began with the fantastic “Band That Wouldn’t Die” film – one of the specials being offered by ESPN under the banner of “30 for 30′ (30 films for their 30 years of operation). 

 

 

The episode in particular was quite revealing about the passion and diehard sports obsession that many Baltimoreans possess.  When the NFL took their team away, they refused to accept that the city that helped put the sport on the map would be overlooked in the modern era of NFL expansion.  

(Note: For any wondering what I mean about “the city that put the sport on the map”- consider the historical impact of the famed Colts/Giants championship game of 1958 that is widely considered the “greatest game ever played” and used as an iconic starting point for the uber-popularity that the game of pro football now enjoys)

Anyone else find it ironic that the same city that once put pro football on the map, only to have their dignity swiped from them in the middle of the night by the arrival of an army of Mayflower moving trucks also happens to find itself potentially on the brink of having it’s proud tradition of thoroughbred racing greatness stripped away?  My, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

The current state of affairs has apocalyptic doomsday scenario questions worrying all fans of Maryland racing – such as how long we’ll be able to hold on to our beloved Preakness and how long the hallowed grounds of Pimlico race course, which have witnessed nearly every great North American thoroughbred in history for the last century, may remain open?

It just strikes me as painfully odd that the same city faces reminiscent challenges regarding two of it’s more cherished past times just decades apart. 

The similarities are right in front of us.  Old Memorial Stadium was falling apart and Colts owner Bob Irsay wanted a state of the art facility.  The politicians wrangled over when/where/and how much to spend on the project, and ultimately the city lost the team to Indianapolis. 

Fast forward to today, and the story has similar parallels.  We all know Pimlico is need of major renovations to keep it afloat.  The once proud Pimlico meets have been reduced to just a 4 week blip on the racing calendar.  Fans like me have to endure constant razzing from visitors about the current condition of the track (giving truth to the axiom that “one man’s treasure is another man’s garbage”).

It’s within the bumbling of the government itself though that things get really interesting.  I won’t attempt to explain the entire complexity of the situation, as to be honest it gives me headaches at times.  First there was the battle of the slots.  “To slot or not to slot? That is the question!”  Passionate arguments were made on both sides.  Ultimately the decision was given a go (at least theoretically, if not practically) – but in typical Maryland fashion it was bungled to the extreme and we now wind up with slots that won’t actually be at Pimlico (if they ever get all the zoning and licensing straightened out) - instead they will be at OTB and other satellite locations sprinkled throughout the state.

My personal opinion on the slots question?  As a typical Maryland resident (or more correctly, a former Maryland resident who now resides within walking distance of the Mason Dixon Line)- I’m fence sitting a bit on this.  I can see both sides.  On the one hand, it’s clear that Maryland racing is impeded in their ability to compete with neighboring states and put on a consistently competitive product whilst competing with slots infused purses in West Viriginia, Delaware, and Pennsylvania.

On the other hand, you can count me firmly among the believers that if slots money is considered our savior – that it’s already too late.  We need to treat the illness – not the symptoms.  I know, I know – one of the most horribly overused phrases of our time.  There are simply so many things broken with the models employed at tracks throughout the land (Maryland being no exception), that I’m not sure slots would amount to anything more than a temporary “fix” to a problem that will continue to grow over time.  It’s a necessary temporary fix – I just hope folks have the ability to see past what happens when the slots well eventually runs dry.

Anyhow, If you missed the ESPN film on the Colt’s marching band – it’s one I highly recommend.  You don’t have to be a Baltimorean to enjoy the film.  All you need is an ability to sympathize with folks who love a sport with all their heart and then have that which they love taken from them.  Also note that a similar film about the Triple Crown campaign (and subsequent drama and tragedy) surrounding Charismatic is set to debut in early 2010.

For now though, inspired by the members of the Colts marching band who refused to let the tradition of their beloved team fade into the night along with the hopes and dreams of an entire city, and inspired by the return of one of Maryland’s proud (but few) Grade 1 races, it’s time to give picking a few winners at Laurel Park the old college try. 

The De Francis Memorial Dash

Vineyard Haven, the highly touted son of Lido Palace who once sat atop many a Kentucky Derby rankings list at the end of last year, comes into town seeking redemption in the Dash.  He had the Grade 1 King’s Bishop in his grasp at Saratoga on August 29th, but was DQ’d and dropped down to 2nd by the stewards following some action in the stretch.   The horse has been working lights out for this effort, and at this moment in time Godolphin Stables seems to be hitting on all cylinders, making him a very worthy favorite at 8/5. 

 

 

The field for the Dash isn’t filled with pushovers, though.  Fleet Valid comes into the race having won 4 straight victories.  Amazingly, this horse was claimed a few years ago for just $14,000?  Talk about a solid claim!

Another favorite of mine, Saratoga Russell, is back looking for glory in the Dash.  ‘Russell has finished in the exacta in 6 of 8 career races, and certainly offers some value at 20/1.

Another horse who might get overlooked is Ravalo, who while he has faced lesser competition throughout much of the year should certainly find this race within his reach, having prevailed 9 times already at this distance.  I have a tendency to focus on runners who perform well on Preakness Day, and this guy won the Maryland Sprint Handicap that day against a very competitive field – so I know he’s got some guts.

Then of course there’s the victor of the Maryland Million Sprint – Roaring Lion.  The son of Lion Hearted races for the always dangerous Bruce Levine barn and will be stepping up in class to take on the likes of Fleet Valid, Ravalo, and Vineyard Haven.

I like Vineyard Haven to roll here (despite the short odds of 8/5), and underneath will be using 4 horses on my exacta and trifecta tickets:  Ravalo, Fleet Valid, Roaring Lion, and Saratoga Russell.

1/ 2,3,4,8/ 2,3,4,8

In the undercard races on the day, I like the improving #3 Target Sighted in The Find Handicap (Race 8) at 9/2.  Obviously there’s a few other horses in here to pay attention to, including #4 Baltimore Bob (3/1).  The winner of the Maryland Million Classic #11 Sumacha’hot (7/2 in his 4th turf attempt) and my original pick for the Maryland Million Classic, #13 Regal Solo (20/1) will also give it a go, but they don’t seem to  have enough enticing turf form for my tastes.

In the Twixt (Race 7), I’m going to roll the dice looking for a bit of a price with Alan Garcia aboard the sneakily versatile #2 Miss Dartmouth.  This field just looks very evenly matched to me, so a horse that could be on the lead but doesn’t necessarily have to be looks enticing – especially with odds of 5/1.  As an interesting side note – take a look at who beat Miss Dartmouth in her debut- none other than Sara Louise, the last horse to defeat Rachel Alexandra.  True, she didn’t run particularly well against her, but it’s still noteworthy.  Underneath I think you’ve got to look at #8 Princess Malka, #1 Love’s Blush, and #5 Southern Charmer.

Best of luck to all!


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Maryland Million Selections

25 09 2009

It’s that time of year again – the 2nd biggest day on the Maryland thoroughbred racing calendar, overshadowed by only the Preakness itself.  It’s Jim McKay Maryland Million time!  Twelve races, and 114 entries to cover here – a veritable handicapping marathon.  What follows is a quick analysis of each of the races on the card and some advance selections.  Weather could still play a factor in how this all plays out, but for now I’ve assumed we’ll still have fast/firm conditions come Saturday afternoon.

 

Race 1 – The Maryland Million Sprint Starter Handicap – 6 Furlongs

We kick things off with a six horse sprint for three-year-olds and upward.  I’ll get right to the point here as the morning line favorite, #3 VISTA MOON, looks very tough to beat on paper. The son of Malibu Moon has won 5 of his last 6 races, all at the 6 furlong distance.  Beat him to cash, but good luck doing so.  Of the other contenders in the field, #6 LITE UP THE NITE and #2 TAKE DOWN TWO would appear to present the largest challenges.  LITE UP THE NITE exits back-to-back scores at Delaware Park and Laurel, where importantly he has shown an affinity for the Maryland dirt.  TAKE DOWN TWO is the first of many Not For Love offspring on the card and was beaten by a neck after attempting to wire the field last out at Delaware.  He’ll be running for trainer Steven Brown for the first time on Saturday, and note that Brown is 29% first off the claim.  I wouldn’t leave #1 LATE NIGHT LOVER out of the mix underneath in the exotics either, as he’s been a part of the superfecta in all of his last 8 races going back to December of last year.

Selections:

  • #3 Vista Moon (3/5*)
  • #6 Lite Up the Nite (6/1)
  • #2 Take Down Too (5/1)

 

Race 2 – The Maryland Million Starter Handicap – 1 1/8 Miles

The morning line favorite for the 2nd race happens to be #1 SUMACHA’HOT who is also entered elsewhere on the card.  I think this spot makes the most sense for him, although he’s never been the distance before.  The son of Mojave Moon is 3 for his last 4, and has been in the exacta in 8 straight races – how’s that for some consistency, eh?  The one thing working against him (beyond the added distance) is the fact that he needs a bit of pace in front of him.  That should come from #4 GAMMY’s A WINNER- a wire to wire winner last out at historic Timonium race course.  These two have banged heads before, with SUMACHA’HOT getting the best of GAMMY’s A WINNER on August 22.  I’m going to back GAMMY’s A WINNER for the win here in the hopes that he gets loose on the lead.  #5 BELLE’S BROKER and #3 HAM AND ERNIE make some sense in here as well should the top two encounter some trouble, and should definitely be considered underneath in the exotics.

Selections:

  • #4 Gammy’s a Winner (5/2)
  • #1 Sumacha’hot (7/5*)
  • #4 Belle’s Broker (5/1)

 

Race 3 – The Maryland Million Oaks – 1 Mile

The ladies get their first shot of the day with the 24th running of the Oaks.  This race should be all about the pace scenario.  #5 LOVE THAT DANCE should be a big part of that pace setup, as should #3 LORI Z’s PUNCH, and possibly the outside runner, #8 BRIGHT GEM.  I think that should set things up nicely for #1 BLIND DATE, who happens to be your 7/5 favorite.  Also working in BLIND DATE’s favor is that she’s picked up the services of jockey Ramon Dominguez, who returns to Maryland for the day and looks to have a big shot here.  But for one dull effort at Monmouth back in June we’d be talking about a horse with 6 consecutive victories here with BLIND DATE.  I’ll keep LOVE THAT DANCE and BRIGHT GEM underneath in my selections.  I’d probably consider using LORI Z’s PUNCH at the bottom of the trifecta, and if you twisted my arm I might add in #4 FOOLS IN LOVE as well.  As an interesting closing note, 5 of the 8 horses in this race are daughters of Not For Love, who obviously has been enjoying his stud duty.

Selections:

  • #1 Blind Date (7/5*)
  • #5 Love That Dance (5/2)
  • #8 Bright Gem (5/1)

 

Race 4 – The Maryland Million Ladies – 1 1/8 Miles (Turf)

We head to the turf for the first time in the day with the 24th running of the Maryland Million Ladies.  I’ll be honest here – my selection has both practical and personal reasons.  First the personal – #7 AMIE’S LEGEND is a horse I’ve backed before (specifically in the Shine Again back on May 23).  Furthermore, the daughter of (who else?) Not For Love runs for trainer Graham Motion, who always gets bonus points in my book for the absolutely top notch stable he runs at Fair Hill, MD.  Lastly, her name is “Amie” – and considering my wife is of the same name (though spelled differently), could I really go any other way?  I don’t think so.  Luckily for me, she makes some sense here, although she is seeking her first career turf victory – that is something to keep in mind before accepting a short price.  #4 ZIGGLY makes a lot of sense here as well, having prevailed in 5 of 15 lifetime turf races.  Note that she ran respectably against Julia Tuttle last out, who I think would be a logical selection if entered in this race.  The other horse I’m interested in seeing here is #6 TALKIN’ ABOUT LOVE.  I don’t think 3/1 is a very attractive price for a horse making their turf debut, but her closing style and a decent workout over the Monmouth grass on 9/2 make her a possibility. 

Selections:

  • #7 Amie’s Legend (4/1)
  • #4 Ziggly (7/2)
  • #6 Talkin About Love (3/1*)

 

Race 5 – The Maryland Million Nursery – 6 Furlongs

It’s time for some babies, as we move to a 2-year-old event in the aptly named Maryland Million Nursery.  We’ll keep this one simple. #9 TOBOGGAN SLIDE is the most accomplished of these young runners, having prevailed in both lifetime starts (last out in a dead heat).  Now he just needs to prove he can run as effectively going an extra furlong, which I don’t anticipate being a tremendous challenge.  Two other horses appear to have chances to me should the favorite falter.  #2 CACTUS CHARLIE has been improving up at Monmouth against Maiden Special Weight competition and could sit a perfect stalking trip through the early going.  #5 LOVE WHO (quick – guess who his sire is???) also appears to be developing nicely and picks up the services of Ramon Dominguez.  It wouldn’t be a surprise to see this runner in the winner’s circle.  As for the exotics, I think #4 MORUMSCO makes some sense underneath as he’s working lights out (4 furlongs in :45 and 4) and had the lead at the top of the stretch in the debut.  Improvement should be expected in his 2nd career start. 

Selections:

  • #9 Toboggan SLide (8/5*)
  • #5 Love Who (6/1)
  • #2 Cactus Charlie (7/2)
  • (Note: I’d take a long look at #4 Morumsco in the paddock as well)

 

Race 6 – The Maryland Million Turf Sprint Handicap – 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

I don’t know that I’ve ever met a turf sprint that I like, especially not one without a Linda Rice runner (she’s my savior in these races!).   Since I know such races are not my strongest plays, I’ll keep this one brief.  I like #1A HEROS REWARD here, although 3/5 in a turf sprint does not sound very appetizing.  I just know how this would go if I didn’t play him, he’d win.  If I cover him, well, you know how this story goes.  #8 NATURAL SEVEN also warrants some strong consideration here for trainer Ben Feliciano. He’s got 7 wins at the distance, which suggests he’s better at figuring out turf sprints than I am.  Add Ramon Dominguez to the mix and here’s your value horse.  #11 CITIFEST rounds out my selections.  #10 SANDBAGIN’ LOVER also makes some sense here as well.  Of the rest, #4 LYCURGUS is a horse that usually winds up in my selections, so if I play a trifecta here I’ll add him into the equation.  I might also consider #3 DISCO DANDY, who could be part of the pace and gets one of my favorite turf jockeys in the colony; Luis Garcia.

Selections:

  • #1A Heros Reward (3/5*)
  • #8 Natural Seven (8/1)
  • #11 Citifest (8/1)

 

Race 7 – The Maryland Million Distaff Handicap – 7 Furlongs

Oh, that tricky 7 furlong distance!  That’s what we’re up against here in the Distaff Handicap.  There are several directions one could go here.  The favorite is #8 ALL GIVING, a 5-year-old daughter of Allen’s Prospect who has racked up 5 lifetime victories at Laurel Park.  She’s also proven he can handle the 7 furlong distance.  That being said, the most accomplished runner at this distance is #3 SAXET HEIGHTS, a horse who might offer some value on the tote board should you be willing to take a chance.  Ultimately, I went with the chalk here, figuring she might simply be the best horse in the race.  #4 MET A MINER looks very capable as she either wins or runs a clunker.  Note that she hasn’t put two clunkers together in a row lately, so might that mean a trip to the winner’s circle is in order?   If she were running at 6 furlongs I’d say so, but so far she hasn’t been as proficient going 7 furlongs.  I think she makes more sense as an underneath play here.  Don’t overlook #2 LOVE FOR NOT, either.  On her best stuff she can make some noise here.

Selections:

  • #8 All Givin (7/5*)
  • #4 Met a Miner (3/1)
  • #3 Saxet Heights (5/1)
  • (Note: don’t forget #2 Love For Not, who has a chance here)

 

Race 8 – The Maryland Million Lassie – 6 Furlongs

Forgive me, but when I handicap this race I can’t help but hear the theme music from Lassie in the background.  “What’s that Lassie?  Timmy has a 2-year-old filly he likes in the 8th race?”  Ah, if only it was that simple. This looks like a race to take a chance, and I’ve settled on #4 LIL KIARA.  The daughter of Lion Hearted broke her maiden last out in the Monmouth slop and likes to be forwardly placed early on (though not on the lead).  That could set her up well for a big run here.  #9 FOR ROYALTY looks like the horse to beat, having tested the Stakes waters in her last two efforts.  Obviously it would be no surprise if she proved much the best.  I don’t usually advocate supporting first time runners in a race like this, but #13 BEAR CAVE looks playable to me.  I like the recent workout tab and trainer Rodney Jenkins is fairly accomplished with debut horses.  I’d also pay some attention to #2 BEN’S BOOTS in the post parade, if only because Ramon Dominguez is aboard.  If you’re looking for a real bomber, note that Pino is aboard a 20/1 here who defeated claimers last out at Laurel, #1 POLISH DANCE.  Interesting race.

Selections:

  • #8 Lil Kiara (4/1)
  • #9 For Royalty (2/1*)
  • #13 Bear Cave (8/1)

 

Race 9 – The Maryland Million Sprint Handicap – 6 Furlongs

The Sprint Handicap is usually one of the more exciting races on the card.  This year’s edition appears to be up to the task of continuing that history.  #3 NOT FOR SILVER ran into a monster last out in Vineyard Haven, who was once considered the top 3-year-old in training by many. I think he’ll appreciate the drop in class on Saturday, as well as the cut back to 6 furlongs, a distance he is 3 for 4 at lifetime.  This runner should be mighty tough here given his affinity for Laurel Park.  #4 ROARING LION is capable of triple digit Beyer figures, but hasn’t put such races together in back-to-back fashion yet.  In fact, depending on how you handicap, this horse could be a “bounce candidate” here.  I think his penchant for setting the pace makes him a player here, along with the switch to trainer Bruce Levine’s barn two races back.  Even so, I’m not going to accept 2/1 on him (at least not from a straight win bet perspective).  I’ll make him beat me at that price and look for more value elsewhere.  I’ve only briefly mentioned Pino’s name thus far, but I think he might be on a live one here as well with #9 GREAT LOVE.  We’re talking about a horse who seems to always run a big race at this track and distance.  He’s a player in here for sure, and 6/1 is decent enough value to be worth a shot if he makes a positive impression in the post parade. 

Selections:

  • #3 Not for Silver (5/2)
  • #4 Roaring Lion (2/1*)
  • #9 Great Love (6/1)

 

Race 10 – The Maryland Million Turf – 1 1/8 Miles

The turf feature awaits bettors in the 10th race on the card.  I’ll be honest and admit this is the race I have the weakest opinion on throughout the entire day.  I could make a case for #10 IZZY SPEAKING, #9 SIR TOGO, #8 MOON ALA MODE, and #7 POCKET PATCH.  Of course, I must also mention that #5 MOTOWN SHUFFLE destroyed one of my Pick 4 plays on Preakness day this year.  Pick your poison.  This is actually a very good betting race – I just didn’t feel very strongly either way. 

Selections:

  • #10 Izzy Speaking (8/5*)
  • #8 Moon Ala Mode (9/2)
  • #9 Sir Togo (8/1)

 

Race 11 – The Maryland Million Classic – 1 1/8 Miles

Behold:  The Classic!  While it  might not have the luster of it’s Breeders’ Cup namesakes, any racing fan understands the significance of a “classic.”  Last year we only had 5 horses in this race, so it’s a very positive development to have a field of 10 this year.  I’ve posted my picks for this race over on Case The Race, and you’re welcome to read the full review there.  Suffice to say, I’m taking a stand on someone other than the chalk – in this case #6 REGAL SOLO.  Why?  Well, for starters let’s continue the mojo that horses with “Regal” in their name have recently earned (Regal Ransom).  All joking aside, this horse appears to be in top form for trainer Damon Dilodovico, who is both lethal with fresh off the claim runners and knows a thing or two about wining the Classic.  I’ll take 6/1 all day long.  Don’t get me wrong, I think the favorites (#1 BROADWAY PRODUCER and #8 RHYTHMN MASTER) have BIG shots here as well, I just figured I’d look for a price here and try to beat them if I could, and REGAL SOLO had enough angles going for him to warrant making him the selection.  I’ll add in #10 SWEET GOODBYE underneath as she should be part of the pace. I might do the same for #9 IN THE JUICE who seems capable on his best stuff.  As for last year’s champion, #2 CUBA?  I thought he was an obvious single last year.  This year I think he’s more of an underneath play in the exotics. 

Selections:

  • #6 Regal Solo (6/1)
  • #1 Broadway Producer (9/5*)
  • #8 Rhythmn Master (3/1)

 

Race 12 – The Maryland Million Distaff Starter Handicap – 1 Mile

We end the day with a group of hard knocking ladies battling it out over a mile distance over the Laurel main dirt track.  #8 SCHEING E JET must be quite a good looking horse, as she’s been claimed in virtually every race she’s run in the last year.  What’s more impressive is that despite the constant scenery changes, she’s been little miss consistency turning out solid performances every time she goes to post.  I love horses like this -and think she’s the obvious selection here.  As for the rest of the field, #4 SERENADIA really stepped up last time out.  Another performance like that makes here a contender here.  #11 FOUR KARATS is another runner I’m familiar with having seen her live on Black Eyed Susan Day and in the Shine Again.  I think she makes quite a bit of sense underneath, especially at 12/1 (she’s been in-the-money in 5 of 9 starts this year).  As for the horses that might be so apparent to all, I could make a case for #1 WITH PURPOSE for trainer Peter Kazamias.  This daughter of Rock Slide seems to run a good race whenever she gets a chance to go a mile.  Plus she’s a chestnut, and we all know my affinity for them.  :-)

Selections:

  • #8 Scheing E Jet (7/5*)
  • #4 Serenadia (5/1)
  • #11 Four Karats (12/1)

 

Best of luck to all!


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Saturday Selections – 8/22/09

21 08 2009

After an exciting week that included an opportunity to feature a new guest writer break his blogging maiden successfully with California Flag on Wednesday in the Green Flag Handicap, we return this weekend with Saturday Selections for the major races at Monmouth Park, Laurel Park, Saratoga, and Del Mar. 

Obviously the big news of the weekend is the possibility that Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta could meet in the Beldame Stakes at Belmont Park on October 3, with TVG-Betfair upping the stakes by $400k and promising a $1 million total purse if both super horses wind up competing.  It’s probably still unlikely this will happen as we all want, but If nothing else it feels the closest we’ve been all year to the much anticipated and hoped for matchup.  Only time will tell if it comes to fruition. 

For now though, we’ll focus on the runners who are definitely racing (late scratches obviously exempted from that statement) this weekend.

 

Monmouth Park – Race 9 – The Phillip H. Iselin (Grade 3) – 1 1/8 Miles

  • #5 Coal Play (2/1*)
  • #4 You and I Forever (6/1)
  • #3 Solar Flare (3/1)

We kick things off with the 75th running of the Phillip Iselin at Monmouth Park.  The entire field is filled with “older” horses (over 3-years-old), and some familiar names dot the list including Coal Play, Solar Flare, Chirac and Researcher.

Coal Play is the obvious “horse for the course” selection by virtue of his 3 wins in 5 starts over the Monmouth dirt, as well as place and show finishes.  He’s got the speed to really take it to this grouping provided he gets a good trip.   No doubt he’ll be hammered at the betting windows, so if you’re looking for a price you won’t be happy.

The rest of the field appears relatively evenly matched on paper, but two horses jump out to me; You and I Forever and Solar Flare.  If you can forgive the last our performance against weaker competition over the slop at Churchill, You and I Forever has some sneaky class to consider.   If you’re a Beyer Speed Figure player, note that he posted a 104 mark at this distance last summer at Saratoga.  That being said, he is winless at 4 tries going a mile and an eighth.  Still, I give him a big chance to hit the board here.

Solar Flare has the always dangerous Larry Jones/Gabriel Saez combination working in his favor (26% in the last year).  Like the favorite, who he’s chased before, he seems to enjoy the surface at Monmouth.  I prefer his recent form over that of other contenders like Researcher and Chirac.

I’ll play the heavy favorite on top with Solar Flare and You and I Forever underneath in the exacta.  For the trifecta, you can add in Researcher, Chirac, and Actin Good to the bottom of the ticket.

  • $1 Exacta: 5/3,4 ($2)
  • $1 Trifecta: 5/3,4/ 1,2,3,4,7 ($8)

 

Laurel Park – Race 9 – The  Pearl  Necklace ($50k) – 1 1/16 Miles – Turf

  • #9 Blind Date (7/5*)
  • #7 Ravenous (5/2)
  • #2 Hogan Beach (8/1)

Saturday’s running of the Pearl Necklace at Laurel Park for Maryland bred 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/16 miles over the turf appears to be a two horse race on paper.

Hamilton Smith sends out Blind Date who will be looking for her 5th victory in her last 6 starts.  The daughter of Not For Love (Mr. Prospector) towers over the competition from a class perspective by virtue of being the only stakes winner in the field (and in her case, a multiple stakes winner, including the Grade 3 Virginia Oaks).

To win, she’ll need to chase down the speedy Ravenous from trainer Richard Small’s barn. The daughter of Bowman’s Band would appear to be the likely pace setter, and while she’s bound to get her stiffest test yet has shown the ability to wire the field at this distance.

I’ll play the class of Blind Date on top with the speedy Ravenous underneath. To round out the trifecta, I’d consider using both #2 Hogan’s Beach and #1 Southern Charmer, who could both be moving well late.

  • $1 Exacta: (Box) 7,9 ($2)
  • $1 Trifecta: 9/7/1,2 ($2)

 

Saratoga – Race 10 – The Alabama (Grade 1) – 1 1/4 Miles

  • #8 Milwaukee Appeal (9/2)
  • #3 Funny Moon (4/1)
  • #5 Careless Jewel (5/2*)

We move to the hallowed grounds of Saratoga for the 129th running of the Alabama, a race that has a bit of extra meaning for being as that I’m a native son of the land of the Crimson Tide.  You know one thing about us Alabamians – having been spoiled with the greatness of Bear Bryant, we like winners…and consistency.

If we were going to go just on straight winning consistency, we’d be winding up with the chalk, Careless Jewel as our top selection.  Obviously the daughter of Tapit has been a model of consistency winning three straight races since her debut, largely in speedy gate-to-wire fashion, including a smashing domination of the Delaware Oaks last out on July 18.  Two things stack up against her here today, however; class and distance.  She’s thus far unproven going the 1 1/4 mile distance, and clearly, despite being a certified Grade 2 winner, she’s never faced quite as tough a field as this.

For those reason, and in an effort to try and beat the chalk with at least one of these picks, I’m turning my attention to the Canadian bred filly Milwaukee Appeal.  I actually liked this filly against the Canadian boys in the Princes of Wales and the Queens Plate, and she ran very respectably in each race.  I’m hoping her odds hold close to the morning line of 9/2, as she offers real value at that price, but I suspect they’ll come down just a bit once wagering opens.  She ran her heart out in the Prince of Wales, which tells me she’s versatile enough to handle the dirt just fine.  Her Beyer figures might not be sexy, but she’s a tough cookie in the stretch. 

Funny Moon also warrants a good deal of respect.  Remember that consistency angle I mentioned earlier? Well, it’s hard to be more consistent than jockey Alan Garcia has been so far at the Saratoga meet.  He’s managed to really shine in an incredibly tough jockey colony at Saratoga and gives his horses a big shot in seemingly every race. 

This is a very deep field, so it’s not like the other horses I haven’t mentioned don’t have solid chances as well.  I could make a case for just about anyone, but would definitely think about including Don’t Forget Gil and Casanova Move on the exotics. 

This ought to be a good one, arguably the “race of the day.”

  • $1 Exacta: 3,8/ 3,5,8 ($4)
  • $1 Trifecta: 3,8/3,5,8/3,4,5,7,8 ($12)

 

Del Mar – Race 8 – The Del Mar Oaks (Grade 1) – 1 1/8 Miles – Turf

  • #5 Well Monied (5/2*)
  • #8 Hameildaeme (12/1)
  • #9 Lexlenos (8/1)

The 53rd running of the Del Mar Oaks would seem to be all about Well Monied, the impressive daughter of Maria’s Mon (Wavering Monarch) who has run big at both the Grade 2 and Grade 1 level in recent efforts and owns a perfect 2 for 2 record at the 1 1/8 mile distance.  Taking her on will be two stakes winners in Strawberry Tart, and Starlarks.  While I like the favorite here on top, I’m looking for value underneath. Well Monied will be a force if she runs her patented race – that much is certain.  I’m not sure if any of the horses in this field can beat her without a bit of racing luck, but there could definitely be some shots that hit the board underneath her.

That being said, do be a bit careful in banking too heavily on Well Monied, as jockey Joel Rosario, despite having a sensational Del Mar meet, has had some trouble getting wins over the turf.  If she falters, which is definitely possible, then we’d probably see a price explosion on the tote. The only trouble is that chalk has been exceptionally tough to defeat at Del Mar so far this week.  Thursday was a veritable chalk-fest, and as of this writing, the Friday card seems to be much the same.

Hameildaeme is a runner who seems to be slowly putting it all together.  If you read Jay Hovdey’s excellently insightful article in the Saturday edition of the Daily Racing Form, you know that her connections feel she may be a good one…if they can get her into the gate without losing her mind.  I went back and looked at her effort in the San Clemente against Starlarks and Strawberry Tart and saw enough to give her a shot here to turn the tables on them with a better overall trip. 

Lexlenos has run into Well Monied in consecutive races, as well as the very sharp Gozzip Girl, who is probably a shade better right now than Well Monied as far as 3-year-old turf fillies are concerned (as evidenced by Gozzip Girl’s 3 1/4 length victory over Well Monied in the Grade 1 American Oaks).  If those fillies are among the best of the 3-year-old turfers, than Lexlenos has to be respected as an exacta/trifecta consideration by virtue of her 3rd place finishes in the last two efforts.

This might be a race to go a bit deep underneath, for as mentioned earlier, it’s filled with horses who have a shot.  I’ll add in Internallyflawless, Strawberry Tart, and Starlarks to the equation underneath.

  • $1 Exacta: 5/ 8,9 ($2)
  • $1 Trifecta: 5/ 8,9/ 1,6,7,8,9 ($8)

Best of luck to everyone and happy Saturday betting!


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Categories : Del Mar, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Laurel Park, Monmouth Park, Rachel Alexandra, Saratoga, Zenyatta

Sleepy Saturday

21 02 2009

As many of you know, I’ve been an advocate of  an idea I call ‘“Take Back Saturday” that involves telling a continuous story to as wide an audience as possible from the Triple Crown through the Breeder’s Cup – focusing on our marquee racing action every Saturday afternoon.  The Road to the Roses races provide an excellent opportunity to illustrate how this is possible, as numerous horses competing for eligibility in the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May are knocking heads at tracks in New York, Florida, Arkansas, Louisiana, California, and soon will be adding Kentucky to that list as well.   That’s why I’m focusing so heavily on these preps right now. 

That being said, this Saturday is a bit of a sleeper.  The only main action occurring is the Turf Paradise Derby, a race that does not feature any big name runners.  As such, I’m not taking the usual vigilant “weekend warrior” stance here.  I’m only going to play lightly and I”ll use this opportunity to catch up on other chores that will undoubtedly go unfinished while my ever decreasing attention span is focused on races like the Fountain of Youth and Sham Stakes next weekend.

If you’ve been following along with the series “Jockeys” on Animal Planet each weekend, you’ve no doubt become more familiar with the Santa Anita jockey colony (personally I’ve noticed that I find something strangely attractive about Kayla Stra, but that’s a story for another time).   Today’s action at Santa Anita consists of a Pick 6 sequence with a $100,000 carryover.   Not a bad betting opportunity as aspiring horseplayers try their luck at becoming the next “Jimmy the hat.” 

Looking over that sequence, two races stand out to me.  The most interesting race of the sequence in my opinion is the maiden special weight contest in race 8. Ten maidens are going 6 furlongs over the main track, and I think this could be a race to catch a sweet price.   The worthy favorite is Zensational in post #4.   Enunciating the name of this runner invokes images of Zenyatta, but “slow cheetah“ he is obviously not.   This horse has every reason to improve off his debut effort and run this field out of it’s shoes, however, before eating chalk in this effort, cast your eyes down to #7 Off the Wall at very juicy morning line odds of 8/1.  

Off the Wall has very impressive pedigree and should under no circumstances be dismissed here if he makes any kind of appearance in the post parade.  I’ll be honest and admit that I’d consider making this horse an aggressive single in the Pick 6, if I weren’t so fond of choosing runners with a race under their belt over first time starters.  As such, I think you cover Off the Wall and Zensational on the ticket.   Don’t be fooled by the 0% stat with first time starters as trainer Bruce Headley knows how to get a horse cranked up for their debut.  Also note that the Candy Ride offspring have been having a sensational year so far, and are definite horses to watch out west when they debut.  If you happened to pick up a Saturday edition of the Daily Racing Form, you’ll be further encouraged by some of the “closer look” comments concerning Candy Ride and Off the Wall’s dam, Diablo’s Peace.  Giddyup!

I’m not going to go through each race on the card in one of my marathon handicapping posts here, but I also want to spend a little time talking about the Valentine Dancer Handicap.  Of particular interest is that a horse who played a role in last night’s episode of Jockeys, #8 Onebadkitty, is entered in today’s race.  In the episode, Onebadkitty reared up in the gate, tossing Gryder to the ground just two days before he was to pilot Well Armed in a bid for a Breeders’ Cup entry.  The two are paired up once again today. 

This race is actually stacked with horses you have to give a fighting chance to.   Tiz a Blend would probably be my top choice, if only for my affinity to horses with “Tiz” in their name (technically it’s more of a direct Tiznow affinity, but I’m also fond of anything sired by his daddy, Cee’s Tizzy). Chrsitiana’s Heat has had a bit of seconditis lately but figures to have  a shot in here as well.  Then you’ve got the recent darkened form of Bel Air Sizzle that might result in a slightly better value play at the windows. Don’t forget about Waveline, North Rodeo, and Swiss Diva.  I still give Tiz a Blend a slight edge, but not by much.  You might want to cover several options here if you can.

The other big race of the day at Santa Anita is the San Carlos Handicap.  I thought Mike Watchmaker summed this one up perfectly in his selections for the day.  I won’t steal any of his thunder, but suffice to say I think this one comes down to Georgie Boy and Past the Point.  I’m quite fond of Georgie Boy, so I’ll take him for the win, but he is a bit vulnerable here if he doesn’t get anything to run at.

One other quick pick for the day, and it’s more of a local one for me.  In the Maryland Media Handicap we appear to have a two horse race between All Smiles and Hello Poochi Pooh.  I’m taking All Smiles by virtue of the better odds despite the fact that ‘Hello should be loose on the lead.  I actually expected the odds to be reversed on these two, and bettors might make that a reality by post time, but if All Smiles is available at 5/2 he’ll be the play. 

That’s all for this weekend.  We’ll be back in full force next week to gear up for the Fountain of Youth and the Sham, two very important races in the Road to the Roses.  Best of luck to all.


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Friday Selections

19 12 2008

We’re almost to the holidays, and if you’re like me you are probably hurting a little bit in the wallet after crossing off all the items on the various Christmas lists you’ve been given.  We’ve got an unexpected day off today as we prepare for doctors visits surrounding the impending birth of our 2nd child, and I figured I’d go pick 4 chasing today hoping for some early holiday cheer.  I’ve got a late pick 4 at Hollywood for this afternoon and a pick 4 for Laurel earlier in the day that hinges on a single in the first leg.

Laurel Pick 4 (races 6-9):

4/1,4,5,6/8,9/1,2,6 ($24)

My Laurel pick 4 starts out with a “Captain Obvious” single in race 6 on #4 Italiano, who appears to be the lone speed of the field.  If he can kick clear of the rest of the group in the early going and settle down comfortably, he should be able to hang on.  Two dangers present themselves however.  Firstly, I”m sure the other jockeys see this and you never know who may decide to rain on your parade, and the fact that the 6th race is at the tricky 7 furlong distance.  The horses I’ll be fearing here as early ticket busters are New York Style, pressing the pace from down on the rail, and Kijabe, who looks dangerous here from a Beyer figure standpoint alone.

In the 7th race I counted numerous horses that could get the job done, so I spread deep andwent with my top four selections.  Pure Granit comes off 4 solid efforts for this level and sports a victory at the 7 furlong distance.  Monarch’s Mystery is a 3-year-old son of Monarchos shipping in from Philadelphia Park who looked somewhat dangerous to me as well.   He hasn’t matched up well with older horses yet in his career, but I think you’ve got to respect the shippers in this one.   That holds true for Out Kissin as well.  He’ll make his first appearance at Laurel in 13 lifetime races and has been working decently.   Indran is another who looks competitive here.  The only one I liked that I didn’t include on my ticket was the outside horse, Lord Willing, for famed trainer King Leatherbury.  Hopefully that won’t be a fatal mistake.

The 8th race to me was all about the two outside horses, Masala T andVirginia Minstrel.   Virginia Minstrel took a while to clear the Maiden Special Weight ranks, but has always shown a hint of talent.  He’s probably a better turf runner overall, but trainer Hamilton Smith has hit at 20% going from turf to dirt, so clearly he knows what he’s doing.  Add to that jockey Anna Napravnik staying on board (it’s great to see her back in action) and what’s not to like?   Masala T, like Virginia Minstrel, should be able to rally from off the pace in this one.  He’s coming off a sharp win and would appear to be in fine form based on 3 of his last 4 efforts.   I did like Max’s Bid and Pattysbuddy in here as well, but was concerned about what might happen up front early on with them, Jamaican Express, and Malibu Moon Coma.

We wind up the day at Laurel in race 9 with $10k maiden claimers going 1 mile over the main track.  I kept this one simple.  The two inside runners, Bungalow Babe and Shocking Development, look like the best fits to me.  both should be in good position right from the start and are cutting back slightly in distance from there last efforts.  With 3 races each under their belts, they ought to be able to put it all together against this field.  Since these are maidens, and anything that can happen will happen, I also tossed in Sky Clipper who is dropping in class for trainer Hamilton Smith.  As an interesting aside, a lady I work with is affiliated with #7 Here Comes Mikey - who I note is adding blinkers today.  I’ll probably have a side bet on him just for fun.

 

Hollywood Park Late Pick 4 (races 5 – 8):

2,3,6,7/4,6,8/2,6/3,11 ($48)

I’ve got no singles in my Hollywood Late Pick 4.  There just wasn’t anyone I felt that comfortable with.  The theme of this ticket is survival, andhopefully going 4 deep in the first leg gives me a chance to be around late when it counts.  In the opening turf sprint, I thought you had to respect Linda Lou, Lemon Punch, Waveline, and Schill.  Actually, this is a race you could conceivably hit “all.”  Schill is my top pick for trainer Jerry “the king” Hollendorfer.  Five solid efforts in a row merit that kind of respect.  Waveline I thought was very dangerous here and might get overlooked at the windows, although the presence of Bejarano all but kills any chance of that.   Linda Lou could be any type of horse.  She’s obviously moving up in class from the special weight ranks, but she’s got a chance in here.  Lemon Punch is the one I’m least expecting a big performance on.  If we  were going a longer distance I’d like her more, but I’m not sure 6 furlong sprints are her cup of tea, even though she does have a victory at this distance. 

In the 6th race we get maiden claimers sprinting over the main track.  Smokey Beau is my top choice here.  He’s dropping from the $80k level and has obviously faced tougher.  He just looks like a formidable force on paper against maiden claimers, although you do have to worry whenever a $115k purchase is being offered for $32k in just their 4th career race.  Ultimately I think that’ s just because he doesn’t have the talent to live up to his purchase price, but he’s probably got enough to beat these.  Convenient Memory is an interesting 2nd time starter for trainer Doug O’Niell.  The obvious attraction being at least partly to do with jockey Rafael Bejarano getting the call.  I also tossed in Cesium Fountain here and thought we may catch a price on this one.  Jeff Mullins runners in their 2nd time out are usually ready to improve on their debut efforts, and this one flashed speed as well – which means he’s likely to be a part of whatever is going on early in this race.  Can he hang on?  Who knows, but I respected his chances enough to include him.

The 7th race was a two horse race to me between Miss Singhsix and Carmel Coffee.  ’Coffee you might recall from Zenyatta’s debut win last November.  She’s really never run a bad race in her career and could be head and shoulders above this field by the time they hit the wire.  Miss Singhsix is a tough, consistent runner that I thought would be the beneficiary if somehow Carmel Coffee wasn’t the horse I thought she was. 

Winding up in the 8th at Hollywood, we’ve got maiden claimers agian going 5 1/2 furlongs over the main track. Thor’s Bullet looks like the standout here.  He posted a 72 Beyer last out and could show early speed as well, which in a short sprint is definitely a plus.  Apart from him, I’ll go for a price at 8/1 with Incandescenza.  The son of Elusive Quality looks primed to me, even though trainer Steve Knapp doesn’t usually have them ready to roll in their debut efforts.  I’m also encouraged that jockey Johnathan Roasario is aboard in the irons.  This isn’t the toughest field – if he’s got talent he should be able to threaten here.

Best of luck to each of you – as always be sure to check for late scratches/changes.


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Maryland Million Selections

3 10 2008

Finally, the weekend hath arrived!  The highlight of this early October weekend for yours truly will be the Maryland Million card tomorrow (Saturday) at Laurel Park.  Twelve races, each of them competitive in their own right, showcase the best that Maryland has to offer outside of the more famous Preakness, Pimlico Special, and Black Eyed Susan races in May.  Upon returning from the NTRA marketing summit in Las Vegas a few weeks ago, I decided it was high time I give my local tracks some additional coverage – as they were so crucial in my formative years as a budding horseplayer.  This Saturday is the perfect opportunity to focus some attention on Laurel Park, and I strongly encourage players from all over the country to consider joining in and playing along.  With that statement out of the way, let’s take a look at each race.  What follows are my initial thoughts – and it goes without saying they are subject to change and further scrutiny (especially with respect to the post parades).

Race 1: The Maryland Million Starter Handicap ($50,000) – 1 1/8 Miles

  • #10 Morethanclever (6/5*)
  • #4 Let Me Be Frank (4/1)
  • #5 Belle’s Broker (5/1)

Let Me Be Frank will have a chance to wire the field in the opener if all goes well, and if he makes a decent appearance on the track could be the win play at the windows.  To prevail he’ll have to hold off the classiest horse of the field, Morethanclever, who has been running well against significantly better horses and picks up the services of recently maligned jockey Jeremy Rose.  There are several horses that could be moving well in the stretch late, including Belle’s Broker,  Rooteen Hero,  Rubi Echo, and the back class play Off the Glass.  I’ll probably try and beat the favorite in the opener with the early speed, although Morethanclever does look formidable here and should get a clean trip breaking from the outside.

Trifecta Selections:  4/2,10/2,5,7,8,10 ($8)

Race 2: The Maryland  Million Sprint Handicap ($150,000) – 6 Furlongs

  • #2 Jazz Seeker (10/1)
  • #6 Grand Champion (6/5*)
  • #4 Lemons of Love (8/5)

On paper and from a quick look at the odds, this race appears to be a two horse race between last year’s winner Grand Champion and the always game Lemons of Love.  In the infamous words of ESPN College Football analyst Lee Corso:  “not so fast, my friends!”  I think that Jazz Seeker has a chance to get out in front here, and at 10/1 and coming off back-to-back close victories (by a nose and a neck, respectively)is worth a long look in the post parade as a potential win candidate.  Grand Champion is the obvious favorite, but the last time he exited a similar layoff (in March of 2008), he turned in his worst race in over 2 years.  Granted, that was against a monster of a horse in Commentator, but still, if you’re looking for chinks in the armor of a 6/5 longshot, you’ve got to be willing to accept such angles.   Grand Champion should get an excellent stalking trip and has every reason to run down Jazz Seeker in the stretch with his superior class.  Lemons of Love is usually right there and has finished as little as a head behind Grand Champion in the past.  I’m not sure the inside horse, Broadway Producer, will run in this race as he’s the likely favorite later on in the card in the Maryland Million Turf (race 4).  That would leave just two other runners, and of them I’d tend to prefer Celtic Innis over Rubi Echo as he’s more accomplished at the 6 furlong distance.

Trifecta Selections: 2/4,6/3,4,6 ($4)

Race 3: The Maryland Million Distaff Starter Handicap ($50,000) – 1 Mile

  • #6 Auntie Millie (7/2)
  • #12 Doolittle (8/1)
  • #7 All Attitude (3/1*)

This race is absolutely wide open with no standout favorite, as evidenced by the less-than-solid 3/1 morning line favoritism on All Attitude.  Figuring out how this group will handle the 1 mile distance is a tricky proposition.  The favorite didn’t come up in my top 2, but I wouldn’t advocate leaving All Attitude off any multi-race exotic wagers either. Really there are several more directions you could logically go, with #8 Heart Striker, #13 Star Mom, and #5 Kenaharra having some playable angles as well.  In the end I sided with jockey Gabriel Saez and Auntie Millie at 7/2.  This horse has been up and down on the Beyer scale jumping all over from a class standpoint, and hopefully a solid jockey like Saez can get the best of her. What I really like is that she’s used to going this distance on the grass, and while he was beaten by 4 lengths in her initial dirt mile attempt.  I think she can improve off that.  Doolittle is a horse I think you’ve got to use in the trifecta as she seems to hit the board lately. She’s probably a better turf sprinter than dirt miler, but she does pick up Jeremy Rose and trainer Hamilton Smith hasn’t made many wrong moves so far this meet. 

Trifecta Selections: 6/7,12/5,7,8,12,13 ($8)

Race 4: The Maryland Million Turf ($200,000) – 1 1/8 Miles – Turf

  • #1 Broadway Producer (8/5*)
  • #3 Into the WInd (12/1)
  • #4 Dr. Rico (9/5)

The Maryland Million Turf is an interesting race that could break several ways. As noted before, Broadway Producer is entered in race #2 as well, but this is the likely spot he’ll actually run.  He makes an appealing favorite with a nice late kick on the grass that has earned him Beyer figures in excess of 85 in his last 5 trips over the lawn.  I would not sell Into the Wind too long at odds of 12/1 as I think this one has a right to be there as part of the pack moving well late.  Jockey Julian Pimentel has ridden this son of Partner’s Hero well before and you have to go all the way back to the first race showing on his past performances in the Daily Racing Form to find a race he really didn’t show up for.   Dr. Rico will obviously take a lot of play with that last race Beyer of 91.  All of these three will be depended upon some decent early splits for a turf route race, but they should be set up well by Gammy’s a Winner and Hound. 

Trifecta Selections: 1/3,4/1,2,3,4,5  ($8)

Race 5: The Maryland Million Nursery ($150,000) – 7 Furlongs

  • #8 Mr. Keeper (2/1)
  • #3 Juke Joint (8/5*)
  • #9 Callmemisterlouis (8/1)

If you love 2-year-olds, this race is for you.  The favorite is #3 Juke Joint, who has demolished the two fields he’s faced thus far in impressive fashion – and they weren’t slouches, we’re talking Maiden Special Weight $48k runners, and a state-bred stakes group.  Note the comments in the running lines:  “lightly roused” and “impressive, handily” – you know you’ve got a runner here.  The only thing is, there may be others that try to go with him early on and test him.  He’s run against comparatively small fields in those two races (5 and 6 horses, respectively), and with a full field of 11 runners today, anything can happen.  Mr. Keeper is the horse I’ll use for the slight upset most likely.  I think he could sit behind Juke Joint and whomever decides to tangle with him and look to make one move turning for home.  He’s only one horse away from being a perfect 3 for 3 and like Juke Joint has been facing decent foes for this level.  Callmemisterlouis could be the forgotten man here, but note that he was favorite in his debut, but then lost the rider after moving out.  He’s one of what seems to be 10,000 sons of Lion Hearted on the card today, and I’m curious to see how he looks in the post parade. Stone in Love is a bit interesting as well, though a shade below the previously mentioned rivals in my opinion.  You also get a whopping 3 horses if you work the Robb John coupled contingent of Crafty Lion, In the Juice, and Great Love into your play.  It’s always worth considering playing 3 horses when you’re getting them at 12/1, right? 

Trifecta Selections: 8/3,9/1,3,6,9 ($6)

Race 6: The Maryland Million Turf Sprint Handicap ($100,000) – 5 1/2 Furlongs – Turf

  • #7 Natural Seven (3/5*)
  • #4 Kosmo’s Buddy (9/2)
  • #5 Lycurgus (6/1)

I’m fairly “Captain Obvious” here siding with the 3/5 favorite in Natural Seven.  It’s hard not to like a horse that has reached the 100 Beyer level in a field like this. Consider that the horse just to his inside (#4 Six String) is exiting a pair of races where he earned Beyer figures in the 40′s.  Yeah, it’s that kind of race.  Kosmo’s Buddy could make it interesting if the favorite doesn’t show up. He’s got some speed and he’s also rated a bit before as well. Of course, the same can be said for Natural Seven, which makes this appear to be a two horse race.  The thing is – I’m sure you guys know how that usually tends to wind up – someone coming through the stretch late at long odds that makes people scream, curse, and stomp their feet.  I’m guessing that might be Lycurgus from the 5 hole.  I like what he’s done at Laurel and this distance and that last bullet blowout on 9/20 tells me he’s ready to roll.  I’ll likely be standing on the two “obvious” choices in my pick 4, but if you’re looking to beat the favorites that’d be my play. 

Trifecta Selections: 7/4,5/1,2,4,5 ($6)

Race 7:  The Maryland Million Ladies ($200,000) – 1 1/8 Miles – Turf

  • #10 Maddy’s Heart (3/1*)
  • #2 Debbie Sue (9/2)
  • #3 Absolute Heaven (7/2)

It seems like every turf race I handicap seems more “wide open” than the dirt races.  I’m probably just a crappy turf handicapper, but I digress.  The favorite Maddy’s Heart hasn’t won since last October, although that was in this very race.  She is vulnerable, although she has been running against Dreaming of Anna and Rutherienne – two horses I think would each be favored over this field if they were here today.  In actuality, 3/1 isn’t a half bad price on her, but she’s a far thing from being a “lock.”  Debbie Sue looks very interesting to me and I could see this one running big through the stretch late.  Absolute Heaven will be more forwardly placed than Debbie Sue and should be very close to Maddy’s Heart as they enter the stretch.  Another I wouldn’t totally count out of this is Miss Lombardi breaking from the 11 hole.

Trifecta Selections: 10/2,3,11/2,3,4,11 ($9)

Race 8: The Maryland Million Lassie ($150,000) – 7 Furlongs

  • #7 Blind Date (5/1)
  • #3 Miss Charm City (4/1)
  • #9 Fools In Love (5/2*)

Back to the dirt track we go in race 8.  This is an exceptionally tough race to decipher.  Miss Charm City is coming off back-to-back impressive wins to begin her career.  The question for her (and indeed all of these runners) is how she will handle the tricky 7 furlong distance.  Fools in Love is the favorite at 5/1 based off three solid efforts so far.  I thought Blind Date was a logical candidate to pull of the upset here.  She should have an easier trip relaxing early on, and there seems to be some speed to run at here.  Note that she was bumped in her debut, so that 74 Beyer could’ve wound up somewhat higher without that trip trouble.  Of course ,the same could be said for the 73 Beyer figure that Fools In Love earned last out, so just keep that in mind.  Onearmedbandit and You Rock also look like factors in here.

Trifecta Selections: 7/3,9/3,8,9,10 ($6)

Race 9: The Maryland Million Oaks ($150,000) – 1 Mile

  • #4 Saxet Heights (4/1)
  • #2 Sweet Goodbye (5/2*)
  • #8 Heavenly Moon (6/1)

There’s a decent field here of 9 horses for the 23rd running of the Maryland Oaks.  Most will figure this to be a two horse race between Saxet Heights and Sweet Goodbye.  Saxet Heights is 5 for 5 to start her career and has a habit of gunning other runners down in the stretch.  She’ll need her best to gun down Sweet Goodbye, who should be more forwardly placed and will likely get first jump on the pace set by either Church Bells, Love Co, or some combination thereof.  Obviously if we’re talking a dirt route (1 mile) than whoever gets the lead is a serious candidate to hit the board.  Still, I sided with the somewhat versatile Heavenly Moon for third selection.  This horse just always seems to be there and would appear to be in solid form.  I’m not sure we can totally dismiss Love for Not either in this one.

Trifecta Selections: 4/2,8/2,3,8,9 ($6)

Race 10: The Maryland Million Distaff Handicap ($150,000) – 7 Furlongs

  • #4 Spectacular Malibu (5/1)
  • #9 Lexi Star (4/1)
  • #8 Fancy Diamond (3/1*)

We’ve got another good one in the Maryland Million Distaff Handicap.  Really, any of these 3 horses could win, and I’d add Jet Away Jane to that mix of possibilities as well.  Fancy Diamond will likely look to wire the field with Jeremy Rose aboard.  These two got to know each other in her impressive 15 3/4 length debut victory last February here at Laurel.  She’ll have to get the full 7 furlongs today, and that might be an angle to consider playing against her if you wish to beat the favorite.  Spectacular Malibu gives you a proven runner at the 7 furlong distance at odds of 5/1.  She’s also run well at the mile distance over the synthetics, so the distance should not be an issue today.  Note that this horse took on Ginger Punch in the Grade 1 Phipps Handicap back on June 14.  Since then she’s dipped in class, but has what it takes to get the job done here today. Lexi Star is another classy mare I always seem to play. She’s gone up against Hystericalady and didn’t embarrass herself.  Jet Away Jane should be right there as well, and with the way La Chica Rica has been finishing in the exactas lately, I’ll add her to the mix at 10/1.

Trifecta Selections: 4/8,9/1,3.6,8,9 ($8)

Race 11: The Maryland Million Classic ($300,000) – 1 3/16 Miles

  • #2 Cuba (6/5*)
  • #3 Five Steps (7/5)
  • #4 Evil Storm (6/1)

The feature race of the day is actually one of the more disappointing from an overall betting standpoint.  We’ve only got 5 horses, so if anyone scratches you can kiss the trifecta wagering goodbye.  I’m not a fan of these small fields as it seems virtually anything can (and will) happen.  Cuba is a horse I’ve been looking to catch here at Laurel.  I was hoping he’d come south for this and  he has.  Commentator dusted him (and everyone else for that matter) in his last race, and if you scratch that and his Grade 3 try against Grasshopper and Honest Man, suddenly you’ve got a live one here. Five Steps has some impressive Beyers (104, and 100 – for example), but his last two races are a bit troubling.  Evil Storm has actually defeated Five Steps in the past, which is largely why he wound up as my third selection.  Use the favorite on top, and then hope a longshot hits the board in the bottom places, that’s really the only chance for a big score here unless the favorites melt down and you were incredibly confident with one of the longshots.

Trifecta Selections: 2/3,6/1,3,4,5,6 ($8)

Race 12: The Maryland Million Sprint Starter Handicap ($30,000) – 6 Furlongs

  • #12 Mass Charles (3/1)
  • #9 All Star Prospect (7/2)
  • #10 Allen’s Close Call (5/1)

We wind up with a starter sprint going 6 furlongs on the main track.  I’m going to be all about #12 Mass Charles for my friends over at That’s Amore Stables.  I’ll be cheering my guts out for you guys.  What a way to end a day at the races if he can pull it off.  All Star Prospect and Allen’s Close Call looked like the logical threats to me.  I’m being brief here because my one and only play is going to be on Mass Charles.  Let’s go Horacio (Karamanos)! 

Of course I’ll be wading into the Pick 4 pools as well.  We’ve actually got 2 of them, one beginning in race 3 and another starting in race 8. Here’s my initial thoughts on those tickets.

Early Pick 4 (races 3 through 6):

  • Race 3: 6,7,8,12
  • Race 4: 1,3,4
  • Race 5: 3,8
  • Race 6: 4,7

Total Cost ($48)

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Late Pick (races 8 through 11):

  • Race 8: 3,7,9
  • Race 9: 2,4
  • Race 10:  4,6,8,9
  • Race 11:  2,3

Total Cost ($48)

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Best of luck to all and here’s hoping for some good weather and a fabulous day at Laurel Park.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Laurel Park

Gearing up for the Maryland Million

1 10 2008

Now that Curlin has settled things and passed Cigar on the all-time earnings list, what’s the next “big thing” to focus on?  Obviously the Breeder’s Cup comes to mind, but that’s still several weeks away.  What’s a horseplayer living in the Mid-Atlantic to do in the interim?

In a word (really two words), Maryland Million.  Beyond the Preakness Stakes each May, the Maryland Million is the biggest day in racing just south of the Mason Dixon line.  I’ve already started handicapping the card, and while I won’t have any picks published until Friday (I’m only through race 4 at the moment), the card looks pretty competitive. 

Sweetening things a bit is the fact that Carrie Everly of the Maryland Jockey Club (VP, Marketing) sent us a care package after meeting in Las Vegas for the NTRA Marketing summit.  Would you believe I’ve already got my hands on  the 2008 Maryland Million hat?  That may not be a big deal to some, but I absolutely love getting hats at each of the tracks I go to.  It really all goes back to the merchandising component in the report we (the online task force) created for the NTRA.  What do fans look like?  Well, we wear hats for starters! I’ve still got the hats from the past few years of Maryland Million days and wear them with pride.  I like to think of them as a conversation piece – much like an interesting coffee mug or picture in an office serves.  It lets people know “that guy’s a racing fan!”

There were also other items in the package – including some fabulous shirts and a coloring book that my 4-year-old already adores.  He keeps asking me which one of the horses in his coloring book is Curlin – so I’ve picked out a few that I’ve said are him and given him instructions to color Curlin in a proper chestnut hue – although knowing this kid the horse is likely to wind up chartreuse or vermilion (two colors he learned from the infamous Blues Clues program).

Speaking of shirts, I’ve got to give a bit of public thanks to my buddy Teresa over at Brooklyn Backstretch.  She came through for me on Jockey Club Gold Cup day and shipped one of the “Curlin: Racing’s $10 Million Man” t-shirts to me.  Needless to say I was pumped.  While my ever-more-girlish looking figure probably won’t fit into the shirt enough for me to wear in public, it’s an heirloom I’ll treasure and hang on to for eternity. 

I’d also like to point out that our RSS feed for the TBA (Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance) has changed recently. If by chance you were previously subscribed to that feed, you’ll need to change the subscription.  The little RSS feed button I have over in the right hand column showing all the TBA blogs should be able to accomplish this for you.  It was a technical thing – just wanted to make sure everyone was aware. 

In other news, I see that Zenyata will run in the Ladies Classic as her owner has no interest in facing the boys.  If she wins and for some reason Curlin or Big Brown do not prevail in the Classic, I think you’d have to make her the front runner for Horse of the Year.  She’ll be doing her best Personal Ensign impression in October trying to remain undefeated for 2008.   Not bad for a horse that started out as an unknown maiden earlier in the year.

As for Curlin, I’ve got some private messages on facebook from folks who are hearing he “looks good” at Santa Anita.  We’ll find out more definitive information on Monday when he has his first scheduled work as right now it’s all just talk, speculation, and a good deal of hay eating.  I like the move to get him out there and get acclimated.  The more of a chance he has to get used to the new surface, the better. 

Here’s hoping I see some of you at the Maryland Million at Laurel on Saturday. I’m hoping for a good turnout for my beloved Maryland track.  They’ll be a small contingent of friends and friends of friends there with us.  If you spot me, stop on down and say hello – don’t be stranger!  I’ll be back on here on Friday with some picks for the 12 race event.


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Laurel Park, TBA

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