These were the words of encouragement I spoke to my wife on Thursday morning at Pimlico when we arrived to see the final Preakness workouts. ”He”, of course, referred to her favorite 3-year-old in training, Shackleford, who had turned for home in the Derby in what seemed to be excellent shape after setting amazingly slow early fractions. However, as we all know, it simply was not meant to be for Shackleford and his supporters on the first Saturday in May. Instead the final few hundred yards of Churchill stretch were to be all about Animal Kingdom. As attention shifted to Baltimore, hardly anyone gave the front-running colt as much as a puncher’s chance.
Yet there he was this week looking regal as ever coming back from his gallop. The son of Forestry strikes quite the figure on the track with his gorgeous chestnut coat. As they brought him passed the stands, I blurted out somewhat awkwardly “Hey Shack – here’s your biggest fan!” while gesturing emphatically to my wife. We snapped what photos we could while she commented on what a beautiful horse he was. He had looked amazing in the Churchill paddock as well – at least as far as we could tell from the NBC broadcast in the comfort of our living room – but seeing him up close took things to a whole new level and left her somewhat breathless.
Shackleford working out on Thursday morning at Pimlico prior to his victory in the 2011 Preakness.
Later that morning she was able to speak with trainer Dale Romans and recount her Kentucky Derby experience. When Shackleford cut that corner and came into the stretch, she had lept to her feet and began screaming her rear-end off. Then she was forced to watch in dignified humility as the horse her husband was cheering for sailed passed her longshot in deep stretch. ”My husband’s horse beat me in the Derby – I need you guys to get him this time around!” she joked to Dale as he signed a track program. Upon returning from her encounter she promptly declared that Shack was going to be her Preakness pick and the only horse she would bet on to win.
Autograph of Dale Romans - trainer of 2011 Preakness champion Shackleford
“No way!” I scoffed. “Why throw your money away like that?”
After all, If the horse couldn’t win after those Derby fractions, what chance would he have against a hotter pace in the Preakness? Such considerations were trivial in her eyes. Forget all the handicapping, the fractional times, and the supposed knowledge of the sport. Sometimes it pays to have blind faith. All that mattered to her was that she had found a horse to cheer for and believed in her heart of hearts actually had a chance. In truth she did have a minor handicapping angle – repetitively insisting that the shorter distance of the Preakness would be more to Shackleford’s liking than it would Animal Kingdom’s – but it was the heart she was speaking with more than the mind (she had originally liked the horse because it reminded her of the alter ego of the character Dale Gribble, aka Rusty Shackleford, in the cartoon King of the Hill).
And it was the heart she was cheering with as her boy once again cut the corner and turned for home in the Preakness on Saturday. At first glance I thought he was going to be swept passed by several horses yet again, but then he found more; picking ‘em up and putting ‘em down with determined effort. My eyesight isn’t what it used to be when watching the track monitors, and it took me sometime in the confusion of the infield to figure out that the horse racing after him in the center of the track was my boy, Animal Kingdom. Suddenly our voices rose as the excitement reached fever pitch. Me screaming for my horse, and she for hers. Down the stretch and into history.
If there’s one thing I have learned over the years following this game, it’s that things are cyclical – even if the connection is obfuscated at first glance. It had been 4 years ago that we confidently strode into the Grandstands to see my beloved Curlin upset the Kentucky Derby winner. Two years prior we had danced with joy near the winner’s circle as her beloved Rachel Alexandra held off another Derby winner (Mine That Bird) at the wire. The in between years had been rather “meh” for us, as we were not fans of Big Brown or his trainer, Rick Dutrow (thanks to the absurd “paper rivalry” between he and Curlin), and hadn’t really felt an affinity with any of the 3-year-olds in last year’s crop once my boy Odysseus went down.
Had I been paying closer attention to that form cycle of on-off-on Preakness emotions, I may have walked out of the track with a lot more money in my pockets. Paying greater attention to Shackleford himself would’ve done even greater good.
All week long my wife was subjected to the musings of everyone with a voice (including me) about what the horse couldn’t do. She took it all in stride with dignified grace and quiet confidence. All she cared about was what he could do. For my part, I went into the race believing, as I always do, that the best 3-year-old wins the Preakness. I believe strongly that recent history invites such a conclusion. I just couldn’t see how Shackleford could be that horse? Looking back at that Derby defeat, I think I do see it now. The inside running lanes at Churchill may have simply been dead that weekend, and to the horse’s credit he did initially repel a very big move by Nehro before finally surrendering in deep stretch to the top 3 finishers.
Nobody was getting passed Shackleford today though. In my heart I’ll always believe the Animal would’ve reeled him in with another few hundred yards, but such arguments are trivial. The only thing that matters now is that for the rest of our lives, whenever we raise our Preakness glasses at Pimlico for a sip of tasty Black Eyed Susans – there he will be. Shackleford – enshrined along with the names of some of the greatest race horses to have ever lived.
It just wouldn’t be Preakness without some picks here at the Aspiring Horseplayer, would it? Much has happened between the last time I had the opportunity to post and now. Most significantly, I managed to nail my first Kentucky Derby winner correctly since Barbaro in 2006 when Animal Kingdom soared home at 21/1. Feels good to get that monkey off my back! That was likely the loudest I’ve screamed since another certain chestnut who was the subject of many a post here race his last race. The victory connected my hometown roots with my Derby selections once again – as Fair Hill (home of the late Barbaro and now Animal Kingdom) was the spot were my lifelong love affair with horse racing first began within walking distance of my boyhood home. What remains to be seen is if my streak of correct Preakness selections stretching back to Curlin in 2007 is now about to change as well?
Will there be enough magic in the Maryland air to bring us yet again within sight of the elusive Triple Crown that has remained just out of reach since the first month of my life in 1978? In 24 hours we’ll know for sure. Before we get to the big event, let’s spend some time going over the undercard races to see if we can pick a few winners.
Race 1: Alw 31000 N1X (6 Furlongs)
We start things off with a 6 furlong conditional allowance event on the main track. This one is for the early birds as post time is slated for 10:45AM. Speed seemed to be holding up fairly well from what I could tell on Friday, so I wouldn’t have any concern going with a front runner if you land on one – but definitely pay attention to how that plays all day. I went with #2 Boreal Forest as the horse most likely to shake loose in the opener and look to wire the field. #8 Forest King has served as his main rival in the last two starts, and they appear destined to renew that matchup today. If you’re looking for a price horse, #3 Devilish Gait makes some sense rolling from farther back in the pack at 12/1. I might be tempted to use #1 Issues And Answers and #9 Technique (homer Graham Motion pick) on the bottom of the exotics.
#2 Boreal Forest (9/5*)
#8 Forest King (7/2)
#3 Devilish Gait (12/1)
Race 2: Hcp 75002 (1 1/16 Miles)
A field of nine Maryland-breds awaits in the 2nd race of the day. #2 Joel’s Touch may be able to get loose on the lead in a race that looks fairly paceless on paper, which would boost his chances significantly, but it’s hard to back a horse that is 0 for 5 at the distance and appears to want shorter. #5 Heavenstmurgatroid took a huge move forward last out, and will probably have every bounce player in the country betting against him. He should get a nice trip once again and anything close to that last effort would be good enough. #9 No Brakes may be the best horse of the field, but he didn’t get a lot of pace to close into and the post position Gods were less than kind. Another horse I thought rated a shot is #1 Say Now at 12/1. This horse has won 3 of his last 4 starts and drew a favorable rail position, although he has been off since February. Lastly, there’s West Virginia invader #6 Across The Wind at 10/1. Winner of 4 straight starts last fall who, judging by the last 3 efforts, may have found his way again.
#5 Heavenstmurgatroid (8/5*)
#9 No Brakes (9/5)
#1 Say Now (12/1)
Race 3: Alw 29000 N1X (1 1/16 Miles – Turf)
The presence of #6 Battleground and #8 Gotta Believe Me should ensure a decent pace in the 3rd race of the day on the turf track. I thought this might set things up very well for the man of the hour, trainer Graham Motion, and his #5 Golden Causeway making his first career turf start. He should be able to sit stalk behind the leaders and if he takes to the Pimlico grass will have a big chance. Likewise, there are positives about Graham’s other entry #11 Rampaige coming out of flat effort on the Keeneland plastic. #9 Double Eagle has the gaudy speed figures that many will focus on, but is clearly beatable having not won since last June. Similarly, #12 Live The Dash has some impressive figures, but on paper is a one-turn sprinter. Perhaps Julien Leparoux can get Majestictroubadour figured out and turned back in the right direction?
This race is all about #4 Life At Ten. If the horse that many felt was a lock for the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic last fall before a post time debacle of epic proportions show up in her 2nd start of the year, this one could be over before it’s run. The main threat may come from the former Black Eyed Susan champion #2 Payton D’oro, who has the strong tandem of trainer Larry Jones and jockey Gabriel Saez in her corner. #6 Check Point is a fairly consistent daughter of Posse who should be able to give a good account of herself as well. Then you have #3 Decelerator, who should be on the gas trying to gun for the lead. If she gets there, an upset could be in the making. Still think that even not on her best that Life At Ten is simply too much for this field.
#4 Life At Ten (4/5*)
#2 Payton D’oro (4/1)
#3 Decelerator (5/1)
Race 5: OC 25000 N2X (5 Furlongs – Turf)
Turf sprints – my arch nemesis. I’ll try to keep things simple here. #4 Princess Malka exists back to back scores against similar, the last victory came despite being steadied. With Sheldon Russell in the irons, I think this is the horse to beat. #11 Toni’s The Won also exits consecutive victories, but drew a bit more unfavorably for a 5 furlong sprint. Then there’s #8 Easy Ashley who like the others mentioned has a mini winning streak going – but will return to the grass this time out. #1 Belarus should be moving well late and may have a chance to spring the upset.
#4 Princess Malka (9/2)
#11 Toni’s The Won (5/1)
#8 Easy Ashley (7/2*)
Race 6: Chick Lang Sprint (6 Furlongs)
This is one tough race. You could make a case for each of the 9 entries to win this thing as they aren’t separated by much. I gave the checkmark to Todd Pletcher’s #4 Escort, who defeated 12 and posted a huge speed figure at Gulfstream 3 races back. I”m willing to forgive the Keeneland debacle last out. Since it’s such a contentious field, I’m also going to take a swing with #2 Chipshot at 10/1 on my deepest exotics. If you’ve been burned by this guy before, today may be the day to catch him at a decent price. #6 Road Ready looks ready to roll as well, but you can’t overlook the class of the field in #5 Vengeful Wildcat at 3/1.
#3 Vengeful Wildcat (3/1*)
#4 Escort (7/2)
#2 Chipshot (10/1)
Race 7: JW Murphy Sprint (1 Mile – Turf)
We move back to the grass for the 7th race. This field was somewhat difficult for me to separate. Starting from the inside, you have the always dangerous Ramon Dominguez aboard #1 Master Dunker. Ultimately I liked the two outside runners best, #9 Humble And Hungry - who’s van I think I passed on the road shipping in from Sagamore, and the classy #10 Joe’s Blazing Aaron for trainer Michael Maker. #4 Lil Bit O Fun and #1 Master Dunker have me on the fence about using, and the longshot I’d like to play on the bottom of my tickets is #7 Broad Rule.
Ready for another sprint? #3 Nathan’s H Q should be be the speed in this race, and that should set him up nicely for a big run. I”m not a big fan of the 8/5 favorite, #5 Ventana as I feel I’ve burned too many tickets over my life on that horse when he runs for minor awards. #8 Safety Check looks interesting with a strong debut effort for the 2011 campaign last out. I feel obligated to use #7 China because I’ll never hear the end of it from my wife, who happens to be Chinese, if/when the horse runs big. Lucky for me he actually turned up in my handicapping as a possibility.
I’m still kicking myself for not having used my boy Graham Motion’s big winner on Breeders’ Cup weekend last fall in #6 Shared Account. Gone are the prospects for anything like the 46/1 odds her supporters reaped that day. Instead I’ll have to settle on 4/5 chalk. There are a few other horses I think are worth covering in the late Pick 4 that begins on this race. #7 Desert Sage makes some sense exiting back-to-back victories for trainer Chad Brown. #2 No Explaining is a consistent Irish-bred filly who can make some noise in this race. Lastly, you have to pay attention to the outside runner, #8 Dyna Waltz. She may want more ground in an ideal setup, but I think you play against classy Dynaformers on the turf (especially with Dominguez aboard) at your own risk.
#6 Shared Account (4/5*)
#7 Desert Sage (5/1)
#2 No Explaining (4/1)
Race 10: Grade 3 William Donald Schaefer Memorial (1 1/16 Miles)
There’s a bit of intrigue in the WD Schaefer this year as #3 Eighttofasttocatch is also entered in the Dixie Stakes – but this race would appear to make much more sense for the son of Not For Love as he’s won back-to-back starts over the Laurel main track. He’ll need to bring his A-game wherever he winds up, as some classy horses await, including the 3rd place finisher from the 2008 Preakness, #5 Icabad Crane. ”Icky”, as some of us refer to him, has always thrived at Pimlico and should have a good shot here if he can get a target to run at. He’s been on the shelf since February, so he may need a race, which is why you have to spread things around a bit and also cover #2 Apart and the speedy #8 Colizeo on the multi-race exotics.
The Dixie has long been my nemesis. Ever since Shakis failed in the 2008 running of the marquee turf race of the weekend, I’ve been unable to cash a single ticket on this race. I even covered the entire field last year save for one horse, and I’m sure I don’t need to tell you what wound up happening to me. Thankfully, the racing Gods have given me a small field to work with this year, but I can almost see Admiral Akbar warning me from the start; “It’s a trap!”
What makes this race difficult to decipher is that the attention on the tote board will be focused on last year’s 3rd place finisher in the Kentucky Derby, #4 Paddy O’Prado. The son of El Prado is obviously more at home on grass than on dirt, but he’s also making his first start since last November. That’s a heckuva time to be on the shelf. If he shows up even with his B-game he likely beats this field, but he’s also the most vulnerable single folks will be standing on in the Pick 3′s, 4′s, and 6′s all weekend. So who has a chance to pull the upset? I think you start with #5 Baryshnikov at 10/1 with Leparoux in the saddle. This Empire Maker colt has won 5 of his last 6 starts and offers double digit value on the morning line. How often do you see that? The ubiquitous Graham Motion barn also has an interesting shooter in #6 Slews Answer – a Ghostzapper gelding who has progressed nicely in 3 lifetime races.
#4 Paddy O’ Prado (4/5*)
#5 Baryshnikov (10/1)
#6 Slews Answer (6/1)
Race 12: Grade 1 Preakness Stakes (1 3/16 Miles)
Is this the year we finally get to bust out of the Triple Crown nightmare we’ve been stuck in for 33 years? Everything now depends on the wild man himself, KY Derby champion #11 Animal Kingdom. Folks, I think we’re looking at a special race horse here. I don’t think this year’s crop is particularly deep or challenging, and certainly he hasn’t scared off the competition – as we are constantly reminded of the full field here in Baltimore for the Preakness Stakes – but just look at that form cycle. If not for some traffic in the debut and an awkward start at Gulfstream Park, we’d be looking at an undefeated Derby winner. Ironically, he’s oft-mentioned as a turf horse, or at least that was the knock against him going into the Derby, but so far the grass remains the lone surface he’s not won over. So much for the smart guys, eh?
The Animal will not arrive until Saturday morning, but if he steps off that van in anything like the form he showed in Kentucky, well, good luck to the rest of ‘em. The other contenders are not without hope though – as the pace setup for this race should be completely different. Gone will be the slow 48-and-change fractions set by #5 Shackleford, as new shooters #4 Flashpoint and #8 Dance City will ensure a faster pace this time around.
Ultimately I see this race as being very formful. I expect #11 Animal Kingdom to be flying down the stretch, coming from a bit closer than he was in the Derby. I think #9 Mucho Macho Man will actually get first jump on the pace setters and that both Animal and #10 Dialed In will be gunning for that one in the stretch. Of the new faces in the crowd, I’d anticipate the best run coming from #1 Astrology, who has really made an impression on me this week. My wife will be rooting for #5 Shackleford like she was in the Derby, but beyond her steadfast support I can’t see that horse improving off the Derby setup. You might be able to twist my arm and get me to do something with #6 Sway Away as well.
As the field turned for home in Preakness 135 on Saturday afternoon at Pimlico, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert got exactly what he was looking for – a little luck. On Thursday morning at the annual Alibi breakfast, Baffert had declared that his only desire was to see Lookin at Lucky “have a chance” turning for home. As if sending us all an omen of what was to come, Baffert also joked around while being interviewed during an awkward moment when he noticed that the cameras were focused on the back of his white-haired head. Little did we know that just a short while later the competition would be staring at the back of his Eclipse Award winning colt as the field hit the wire.
Whether it was the highly publicized jockey switch from Garrett Gomez to Martin Garcia, a better post position, or perhaps just a tad of mercy from the racing gods up above on high is anyone’s guess. No matter which way you slice it, ‘Lucky has firmly entrenched himself atop the 3-year-old division, knocking off Kentucky Derby champion Super Saver in convincing style. Despite jockey Calvin Borel’s boasts that Super Saver would win the Triple Crown, the Derby champion could fare no better than 8th – which winds up as the worst finish of a Derby winner in the Preakness since 1970 when Dust Commander was dusted and finished 9th. Of course, Barbaro’s breakdown still stands as the worst nightmare suffered by a Derby champion in the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown, but thankfully we appear to have avoided the injury bug during this renewal.
It’s amazing how fast the pendulum of opinion in racing can swing in an extremely short amount of time. Two weeks before the 2010 Kentucky Derby, Lookin’ at Lucky was thought of as a “stand out” amongst the 3-year-old division by many racing fans. The colt had encountered trouble in the Santa Anita Derby and fought back for 3rd when many horses would’ve quit, and conventional wisdom held that with a better trip in the Derby, he’d find a way to prove he was the most talented 3-year-old in racing. Then came the debacle of his horrific Derby trip, in which he was essentially knocked out of contention before the 1st turn.
Headed into the Preakness, the racing world was divided into two camps. One thought Super Saver was so far superior that he could not be caught, even on Lucky’s best day. The other thought the colt still deserved a shot and that if he ever got into the stretch without encountering trouble would show the world who he was. I noted in several discussions that this felt quite a bit like 2007 with Curlin and Street Sense, and that though I did feel Super Saver deserved to be favored and given a slightly better chance that I couldn’t help but feel for that underdog role of Lucky, as many of the same angles seemed present this year.
With just a few minutes to post, the odds on the tote board reflected this close division amongst fans, with both colts showing 2/1 odds in the win pool. Super Saver was slightly favored and wound up going off as such at 9/5, but the Lucky faithful seemed to be growing by the minute. When asked, I advised all listening that I was playing them both, as I envisioned them hitting the wire essentially together with perhaps the bob of a head being the difference of separation.
I can only imagine that for his diehard fans the moment Lucky turned for home was eerily reminiscent of my own experience in 2007 when I was there to cheer home Curlin. You KNEW he had what Baffert wanted – a chance – and you knew it was going to take everything he had. Could he summon the will power necessary to chase down the horse in front of him, or would another opportunity to cement his greatness slip passed him? Despite having no personal affinity either way (my favorite 3-year-olds Odysseus, Eskendereya, and Endorsement all having been sidelined with injuries), I found myself subconsciously willing the horse on. I guess there’s that little part of all of us that wants to see grit, hard work, and sheer determination justly rewarded.
When Lucky crossed the wire in 1:55.47, he did so by the slimmest margin since Curlin had nosed Street Sense and Calvin Borel in 2007. The victory also tied Bob Baffert with D. Wayne Lukas for active trainers with the most Preakness victories (5). For Baffert, it was the first since 2002 with War Emblem. Meanwhile, trainer Todd Pletcher, who had only two weeks ago finally got the 0-for-24 Kentucky Derby monkey off his back, is now 0-for-6 in the Preakness.
Of course, some will view the result of the race with a bit of remorse, as Lucky’s victory ensures the continued Triple Crown drought that has plagued the sport since Affirmed took home the coveted honor in 1978. If there’s a big loser from the day’s events – it’s probably the folks at NYRA at Belmont Race Track. By Sunday morning news was confirmed that neither the Kentucky Derby or Preakness winners would be heading to the Belmont on June 5th – assuring an anti-climatic aura of deflated excitement from what might have been had either Super Saver prevailed or one (or both) of the champions this year decided to make the trip.
For both horses though, the decision makes sense. Super Saver just didn’t seem his usual self. Pletcher and Borel commented that they thought the 2 weeks between the Derby and Preakness were too short for him. Of course, it would’ve been nice to have heard the information earlier in the week that NBC relayed as the field was being loaded into the gatethat Super Saver had lost weight in between the two races, but I digress. For Lucky the move is equally sensible, as he’s shipped all over the nation and battled ferociously everywhere he’s been. A rest has been earned, and there’s no reason to push the colt further now that he’s validated his 2-year-old champion status.
Arguably the most awkward moment of the entire Preakness was the scene near the winner’s circle as the Baffert clan attempted to storm the old clubhouse for the requisite photo opportunity. Security officials and Bob Baffert could be seen shouting and even using some physical force to push or pull people, sometimes in opposite directions at the same time, as split-second decisions were made as to who was allowed entrance and who had to remain outside.
Oddly enough, Baffert went into the fray several times whilst carrying his son Bode. Former Vikings coach Mike Tice was amongst those allowed in. I guess nobody wanted to squabble with a former NFL player. Personally I should’ve seen the omens as Tice, upon arriving at Pimlico, passed by me with a crowd of Lookin at Lucky’s connections from which several loud “Roll Tide!!!’ cheers erupted at the sight of my “lucky” Bama hat.
Shoulda known, huh?
The surprise of the Preakness has to be considered First Dude. Congratulations if you successfully identified him as a likely pace candidate. For some reason I thought he’d be in more of a stalking position in the early going, and looking back I can already see the error of my ways. The son of Stephen Got Even was widely dismissed at 24/1 (though I’m sure we’ll now be swamped by the Monday Morning quarterbacks all insisting they had him, despite the fact that only a few brave souls touted the horse publicly – including ESPN’s AWESOME Claire Novak- to whom I give much credit and respect for fantastic coverage of the Derby and Preakness), but fought on gamely for a determined second place finish. When the opening half mile clicked off in :46.47, I assumed he’d be fading badly at the wire, but this was not the case at all. ’Dude nearly stole the entire race if not for ‘Lucky’s heart and determination.
With the major players out of the Belmont, the possibility would seem to exist for a rather interesting race being setup behind a front running First Dude, looking to once again steal the race on the lead ala Da’ Tara in 2008, and Ice Box, the dead-late closer that was flying at Super Saver late in the Kentucky Derby. It’s just a shame that most of America won’t be watching due to the lack of a Triple Crown hopeful. That’s okay though – they never seem to know what they’re missing…and maybe there’s something special about the spectacle of horse racing being our own little secret wonder of a sport. Still, I hope that at least some of the fans who beheld their first horse race during the Derby or the Preakness will stick around and become larger fans of the sport. What they saw was just the tip of the iceberg.
On a personal note, I wish to thank the folks fromCBS Radio and the Leffler Agency for having me on-site for handicapping assistance. Ironically, I was positioned just across from our good friend Gary Quill – who was providing similar assistance to another group of distinguished guests. We had a blast – and hopefully helped create a few new fans of the game. My top 3 picks that “couldn’t lose” all came home on top, even if they were heavy chalk (Comedero, Blame, and Rainbow View), and technically I can add NorthPoint Costas to that mix as well. The two horses we didn’t have that would’ve made for a day of EPIC proportions were Taqarub in the Maryland Sprint (pace handicapping having killed me again), and of course Strike A Deal in the Dixie – which continues to be my nemesis since that infamous photo of Amy and I being knocked from the 2008 Pick Six by Pays to Dream first surfaced.
The memory that will stay with me forever actually came during Rainbow View’s victory in the Gallorette. Some of our hosts were “lucky” enough to witness a classic “Kevin moment” as she turned for home. You may recall that I had the honor of covering the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic last fall for the NTRA? Rainbow View was my pick in that race and, despite losing, the filly who most dearly stole my heart. In deep stretch she appeared to be in trouble, but true to her class and style, she thundered home in that final furlong to beat Quiet Meadow by a half-length – all the while with me running amok along the turf rail shouting at the top of my lungs “C’mon Rainbow!!! C’mon baby girl!!!! Show ‘em who you are!!!”
The Woodland Vase - trophy of the Preakness Stakes
Preakness 135 – the day is FINALLY upon us. After a fairly brutal afternoon at Pimlico on Friday (due to the heat, my lousy selections, and of course the spill in the Black Eyed Susan) – it’s time to make amends and “get our Preak on” with the selections. As a much more learned man than I once opined (the great Master of Ceremonies himself – Hammer): It’s time to turn this mutha out!
We’ll focus on the major stakes races on the day, starting with the 6th (The Chick Lang Stakes). You’re on your own for the early races – which I generally don’t do that well on anyway. Overall, I’ll say that I though Friday was a much better day to play “beat the favorite” and that several of the favorites on Saturday’s card look more formidable – which of course means the exact opposite will probably happen, so wager accordingly!
Race 6 – Grade 3 Chick Lang Stakes – 6 Furlongs
The race named for the legendary “Mr. Preakness” himself, the late, great Chick Lang kicks off the major racing action for the day. It’s not a very big field, so expect this to be a rather bland wagering opportunity.
#3 Comedero (7/5) – Worthy favorite is 6 for 6 sprinting. His only loss came trying to go 1 Mile back in December. Respect.
#4 Quiet Invader (5/2) – Top challenger defeated Hurricane Ike last out. If not for a freak injury earlier this week, Hurricane Ike would’ve been a popular betting interest in the Preakness.
#5 Latigo Shore (5/1) – Son of Malibu Moon has been steadied twice in 3 lifetime races. His only clean trip he won for fun against Maidens. Expect improvement.
Race 7 – The James W. Murphy Stakes – 1 Mile (Turf)
The JW Murphy came up a fairly tough race to decipher. Several contenders are making their first turf start – so quite literally anything can (and likely will) happen. I focused on those with turf experience, though the “dirt” horses are bound to offer better value on the tote board.
#11 Thunder Brew (5/1) – Exits back to back scores against softer competition. Is also 2 for 2 at the mile distance.
#1 Cat Park (4/1) – Part of coupled entry for trainer Graham Motion that also includes #1A Vamos a Ver. Was dusted by Paddy O’Prado and Dean’s Kitten 2 races back. On his best stuff he makes sense here.
#2 Beau Choix (5/1) – No excuse for getting “caught” in last race. Working like he wants to make amends.
Race 8 – Grade 3 William Donald Schaefer Stakes – 1 1/16 Miles
I joke that this race was almost changed to the Sheila Dixon stakes. It’s a Baltimore thing.
#7 Blame (8/5) – Makes first start of 2010 campaign, but could be sitting on a big race.
#3 Understatement (2/1) – The most accomplished of the early-speed types in this race. Seems to excel at this distance – though those wins all came at Aqueduct.
#1 Bullsbay (10/1) – May have lost a step, but he should get a solid pace to run at. Never count a son of Tiznow out of any fight.
Race 9 – Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
I counted 5 runners here that I thought had a decent shot to win. In addition to the selections listed below, #5 Quiet Meadow (10/1) and #2 Love’s Blush (20/1) warrant some attention as well in my opinion. That being said, I’m a fairly big Rainbow View fan. I’m fond of the filly – and hope she shows up with her best stuff. I don’t think she’s a lock though by any stretch of the imagination.
#4 Rainbow View (1/1) – Classy filly has run respectably against the likes of Goldikova and Sariska. Should improve on 2nd start of most recent form cycle.
#8 Shared Account (6/1) – Cuts back in distance where her early speed running style could set her up nicely.
#7 Denomination (10/1) – Smart Strike filly may finally be figuring out U.S. turf racing.
Race 10 – Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap – 6 Furlongs
Looks like another tough renewal of the MD Sprint. The race seems wide open as just about the entire field is capable on their best stuff. Beyond the listed selections,#11 Half Metal Jacket is another I’d give serious consideration despite the outside post draw. The 11 hole seemed to do quite well on Friday. That probably had more to do with the horses than the post, but suffice to say you might not want to automatically toss the outside runners.
#1 Snapshot (3/1) Thought the son of Awesome Again rated the best shot in this field. The horses who have beaten him lately (Warrior’s Reward and Custom for Carlos) are pretty tough customers.
#3 Roaring Lion (6/1) – I don’t know that he absolutely needs the lead, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt.
#7 Ravalo (5/1) – Should appreciate return to dirt surface after pedestrian effort on synthetics.
Race 11 – The Grade 2 Dixie – 1 1/8 Miles – Turf
Over the years, this race has been my nemesis. I’m captured in a Cindy Pierson Dulay photo of the 2008 renewal as longshot Pays to Dream crossed the line and knocked me out of a Pick 6 wager that was singled on Big Brown in the Preakness. Thus, it comes as no surprise that I think 6 of the 13 horses in this field (nearly 50%) are threats to win the race and will be spreading DEEP here on the exotics. Outside of the picks listed below, I’ll also be thinking about #9 Rahystrada (6/1), #6 Picou (10/1), and #5 Forgotten Dynasty (10/1).
#4 Just As Well (3/1) – I went “Captain Obvious” with the top selection as I thought this son of A.P. Indy might be the best horse in the field. He hasn’t won since last July, but he’s faced the likes of Vodka, Champs Elysees, and Gio Ponti in that stretch. He should find this field easier – with “should” being the operative term.
#2 Grassy (5/1) – A very well regarded son of El Prado (same sire as Paddy O’Prado) that just missed last out. Could be ready to improve in 2nd start this year.
#13 Nicanor (8/1) – Forget those Preakness connections with Grassy I just mentioned…this here is Barbaro’s little brother! He’s got some speed too, which he’ll likely have to flash from the 13 hole. Even so he may need some angels on his withers when they enter deep stretch – but what a story it would be if pulled it off?
Race 12 – The 135th Preakness Stakes – 1 3/16 Miles
Here we go folks, the reason we are all here. Will Super Saver march on to the Belmont with a pair of Triple Crown jewels in his pocket or will a rival jump up and snatch victory from Calvin Borel at the wire the way Curlin did in 2007? We’ve already posted an initial “get to know the Preakness contenders” bit, so I’ll spare you the full field rundown.
Ultimately, I think 4 horses make logical win contenders here. Obviously there’s Super Saver – that’s a no brainer. Lookin at Lucky “should” get a better trip and has a chance to be right there at the wire. Paddy O’Prado would be no surprise either – and by all accounts he’s looked well since arriving (just as he did at Churchill Downs 2 weeks ago). Lastly, there’s Caracortado – who is becoming the “wiseguy’ horse of this Preakness.
As for the rest of the field, while conventional wisdom maintains that you focus only on horses that have run in the Kentucky Derby when searching for a Preakness winner (the only exceptions in recent memory being Rachel Alexandra in 2009, Bernardini in 2006, and Red Bullet in 2000), you might be interested to know how many times in the 13 renewals of the Preakness since 1997 in which a horse that did NOT run in the Kentucky Derby has finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd. Check out page 7 of Derek Simon’s Preakness Betting Guide for what I feel is a telling illustration. If you’re looking for value horses to fill out the Exacta and Trifecta – be not afraid – recent history is on your side!
Caracortado would seem to be the logical “non-Derby starter” of this bunch to hit the board – but I’ll be honest and admit that I’m also keeping an eye on the odds for Yawanna Twist as well. Just a hunch – nothing more. If anyone’s going to play the role of Macho Again from 2008 (the longshot who lit up the tote board under obvious favorite Big Brown), my gut says Yawanna Twist might be the one.
#8 Super Saver (5/2) – The Derby winner’s race to lose. Has the tactical speed to prevail from either the lead or just off the early pace.
#7 Lookin at Lucky (3/1) – The time is now if he’s ever going to have his day.
#10 Paddy O’Prado (9/2) – Should be right next to Super Saver every step of the way. If the Derby winner gets beat, this horse will likely have a great deal to do with it.
#9 Caracortado (10/1) – “Scarface” has plenty of buzz around him. Apparently he figures “another furlong, they’ll love me again.”
#5 Yawanna Twist (30/1) – My longshot bomber. Light it up, baby. Light up that tote board. Evacuate the grandstand – we’re twisting on the dance floor!
Well folks – by the time this one goes official, the whole weekend will be a historical footnote. Another memory quickly stuffed away and brought back only as a reference point for a particular story, or to illustrate a particular point. Hopefully you’ve enjoyed yourself and spent some time living in the moment – and hopefully you’ve cashed a healthy amount of wagers along the way.
Now, readers, march away: and how thou pleasest, Preakness Gods, dispose the day!
Those of you who have followed along here over the years know the drill this time of year. Preakness week is when we go a little crazy and start doing some marathon blogging efforts to try to bring as much attention to the racing action at Pimlico as we possibly can. Fortified with a healthy dose of Black Eyed Susan’s from this morning’s Alibi Breakfast at Old Hilltop, we’ve jumped right into the task at hand and are prepared to offer selections for ALL 13 races on Friday. Saturday’s picks will be coming tomorrow night.
I’m following the standard “quick pick” format here – three selections for each race. Where possible I’ve noted other runners I consider to have a serious chance at pulling off the victory. I’d love to break them all down even more in-depth for you, but that can be a bit taxing with so many races to cover in so little time.
Before we begin, I need to do some quick shout-outs to folks:
To the folks at WOYK 1350AM (in particular Craig Lehman) for having me on this morning to talk horses.
To Ray Paulick- whom I bumped into today and was kind enough to relay that Satish Sanan (owner of my beloved Odysseus) was fond of the satirical parody video I did following the colt’s injury. Made my entire day.
To Gary Quill, who I was able to bump into briefly today but sadly did not get the chance to converse with for long. Gary – the work you do to bring attention to Maryland racing is commendable, my friend.
ToThorofan for giving me the privilege of posting their featured Preakness article.
To all of my fellow TBA bloggers for their continued devotion to covering the game.
To Tencentcielo for never fearing to “give his ten cents” and leading anyone willing to listen to numerous sweet scores
To Carrie Everly of Pimlico for, well, for being Carrie Everly!
To the folks at 105.7 The Fan in Baltimore for allowing me to spend the weekend with them “talking horses.”
To Derek Simon of YouBet.comfor his awesome-terrific Preakness Betting Guide. Derek allowed me the honor of contributing to his Kentucky Derby guide, and suffice to say I look forward to seeing what he puts together for the Belmont.
And of course, last but certainly not least, to all of you for continuing to fuel me with the inspiration necessary to keep this little venture going – especially in the darker days of the year when we don’t have Triple Crown races just around the corner to look forward to. I’m forever indebted – and honored each time you visit.
Now, let us move forward, as the races – with all expedience – shall march upon us! (gratuitous Henry V quote)
Race 1: Optional Claimer $25k N1X – 6 Furlongs
I’m playing to beat the favorite (#2 Yogi’ssplashofgold – 2/1) right out of the gate on Friday as I feel she may be vulnerable at the 6 furlong distance and better suited to 5 furlongs.
#7 I’llthinkofsumthin (5/1) – 7 wins at this distance, that’s 7 more than the favorite
#6 Tidal Change (9/2) – has a tendency to weaken late but might find this field easier to handle than last she faced
#5 Lucky You (3/1) – might best to use on the bottom of Exactas/Trifectas
Race 2: State-Bred Handicap $7500s – 1 1/16 Miles
Very tough race to decipher – even tougher to drill down to 3 selections. Lots of evenly matched horses on paper.
#6 Swear Allegiance (9/2) – has a “win every other race” style, and thus is due
#2 May One (4/1) – has fired from a 45+ day layoff in the past
#4 Goodness Greatness (8/1) – on her best stuff she can dance with these girls
A dreaded “turf sprint”. These are not my strong suit. I’ll favor the runners from the inside post positions for now. Also note that the favorite, #9 Norjac (8/5), has never been on the grass before, so I’ll play against the chalk once again here.
#1 Titanic Win (7/2) – have to excuse last race when he broke from the 11 hole
#3 California Cool (9/2) – ran into traffic trouble last out, before that had 3 straight wins
#2 Skeleton Crew (4/1) – had his career best effort at this track/distance in May ’09
Race 4: Allowance $30k N1X – 6 Furlongs
While this might seem a nondescript race at first glance, do note the appearance of numerous female jockey “legends.” This one could get crazy as many of them haven’t raced in quite some time.
#5 Rasher (5/2) – should appreciate the cutback to 6 furlongs today
#11 Sun Dance Moon (5/1) – son of Malibu Moon must handle winners for 1st time
#2 Cleric (5/1) – has been in-the-money in 8 of 10 lifetime starts
Race 5: Allowance $30k N1X – 6 Furlongs
Unfortunately I’m on the chalk here in back-to-back races as far as my top selection goes. Those responsible have been sacked.
#6 Back to Therapy (2/1) – riding 3 straight victories and has won 4 of last 5 starts
#8 Got It Covered (4/1) – Very nice debut victory last out and working like she means business
#3 Alwaysacontest (7/2) – switches to successful trainer (Damon Dilodovico)
Race 6: The Very One Stakes ($70k) – 5 Furlongs (Turf)
Another blasted turf sprint! My one rule of thumb in turf sprints is to always play anything trainer Linda Rice sends to post – and lucky for me she has 3 of them in this race! I’d cover ‘em all. Nobody gets horses ready for a turf sprint like Linda Rice.
#5 Ahvee’s Destiny (5/1) – expecting improvement in 2nd start of campaign and with Ramon Dominguez aboard
#11 Lady Rizzi (8/1) – offers solid value on the morning line and fits with this group nicely on paper – but must overcome outside post position draw
#7 Canadian Ballet (3/1) – has speed – which comes in handy in turf sprints
Race 7: Allowance $30k N1X – 1 1/16 Miles
One of the lease exciting races of the day to handicap. The only horses I fear could beat my picks here are the 3 inside runners in posts 1, 2, and 3.
#7 Squabble (4/1) – hard trying type gets services of jockey Javier Castellano
#6 Lily Quatorze (8/1) – her daddy won the 1996 Preakness. I’ve no clue who her dam was
#5 Pink Sand (7/2) – have a feeling she’ll like the slight cutback in distance today
The name says it all – another turf sprint and I’ve no Linda Rice horses to bank on. Whatever shall we do? Honestly, I could make a case for half the field in this one. The picks below are the ones I thought offered the most favorable risk/reward potential.
#11 Sacred Journey (10/1) – rolling the dice here, but he was close against Vineyard Haven last out, who would be heavily favored in this race
#10 Central City (5/1) – Just missed at the Grade 3 level last out vs. better
#1 Cardashian (12/1) – think it’s a mistake if he goes off anywhere near 12/1
The Ms. Preakness is usually a fun race to watch, even if it’s not the best wagering opportunity on the card.
#3 Cuff Me (4/5*) – the “Captain Obvious” selection
#6 Starlite Starbright (9/2) – heavily bet in Stakes debut, but was “caught in last stride” – very capable of pulling the mild upset
#7 Argent Affair (8/1) – has been in the Exacta in all 6 lifetime starts
Race 10: Allowance $26k N1X – 5 Furlongs (Turf)
Would you believe it…another turf sprint? Must be my lucky day…or something like that…and it’s sandwiched right in the late Pick 4 sequence? Somebody get Mike Gathagan on the phone – NOW!
#6 I Can Do It (10/1) – disclaimer time – I know someone connected with this horse, so it’s a bit of a “heart play” rather than an actual selection
#11 Phosphorescent (5/2) – would be the clear choice if he hadn’t drawn such an outside post position
#4 Oh My Me My (8/1) – Hasn’t won since last August, but has many angles pointing to an improved performance
Race 11: The Skipat Stakes ($70k) – 6 Furlongs
I counted 5 horses I thought could win this race. Besides my top 3 selections listed below, I also think #1 Streetscape (15/1) and #6 Lights Off Annie (9/2) are also capable.
#8 All Giving (5/1) – with tons of speed in this race, I put the checkmark on this runner coming from just off the pace
#2 Sweet Goodbye (3/1) – hard not to like 10 wins in 15 starts
#9 Rightly So (5/2) – has been in-the-money in all 8 lifetime starts, but may run into a hot pace battle here – which could compromise her chances
Race 12: Grade 2 Black Eyed Susan – 1 1/8 Miles
The feature race of the afternoon. Similar to the Skipat, I counted 5 horses with a shot in here. In addition to the 3 runners below, I’d give #5 Harissa (5/1) and #9 Diva Delite (8/1) a puncher’s chance.
#8 Tidal Pool (8/5) – Show horse from the G1 Kentucky Oaks has two solid efforts in a row against the top 3-year-old filly in the land (Blind Luck). Should find things slightly easier today
#2 Seeking The Title (5/1) – sneaky horse – expecting big time improvement as her first try against winners was at the Grade 2 level and she ran very well
#1 No Such Word (7/2) – well beaten by Tidal Pool last out in the G2 Fantasy. Bullet workout on 5/9 at Delaware Park suggests she’s on her toes
Race 13 – The Hilltop Stakes ($70k) – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
We end the day with a nice turf route. Hopefully by now we’ve all padded the bankrolls and can skip out early to start looking at the Preakness card for Saturday.
#5 Joharmony (5/1) – Three straight wins AND Javier Castellano on the turf? Yes please.
#6 Smart Seattle (3/1) – Trainer Graham Motion is a class act and deserves a victory on the Friday card
#8 Summer Shade (10/1) – Miss looks like she fits with this bunch. Not sure why she’s listed at 10/1?
Best of luck, and may all your wagers be winners!
I’ll be posting our picks for the entire Preakness card as soon as we return from Pimlico Friday evening.
It’s time, folks. Preak-week is officially here in Baltimore, meaning that if you haven’t already done so, it’s time to officially get your Preak on. With so much to do in so little time, let’s run down the list of contenders for Preakness 135.
Super Saver
As George C. Scott once opined in the approximate likeness of General George S. Patton: “America loves a winner!” Indeed we do, and here he is – your Derby winner, chicken dinner. The talented son of Maria’s Mon galloped off into history under the confident guide of jockey Calvin Borel. With the slightly shorter distance of the Preakness up next, his tactical speed should give him a clear advantage and make him the worthy favorite. All signs point to a successful invasion of Baltimore.
Lookin at Lucky
Stop me when this sounds familiar. A highly regarded son of Smart Strike contests for favoritism on the tote board on Derby morning, and then suffers a horrific trip that essentially eliminates him from contention. He returns to the Preakness where he’s promptly given no chance to stage the upset against a seemingly dominant Derby champion, whose initials happen to be S.S., and his equally dominant jockey Calvin Borel. Shades of 2007, anyone? The only thing amiss is that Lucky happens to be the defending 2-year-old champion. Perhaps the most unlucky horse in all of racing. Anyone who watched his “trip from hell” in the Santa Anita Derby probably thought that was as bad as things could possibly get for Lucky. Not so, unofortuately, as he was smashed by Stately Victor in the early going of the Derby. The colt fought on for a 6th place ribbon that, all things considered, was better than he should’ve finished. He’s shipped all over the nation so far in this campaign. If he ever gets his day where the racing gods decide to show some mercy – he’s good enough to be right there at the wire. Martin Garcia will be aboard for the Preakness.
Paddy O’Prado
In a Kentucky Derby FILLED with “wise guy” horses, this was perhaps the wisest of them all. The son of El Prado had been reportedly working very sharp for that effort on the first Saturday in May, and despite some wild weaving throughout the race, showed that he was clearly one of the top contenders. On paper he didn’t look like that intimidating a dirt horse, but if he takes to the Pimlico surface at all like he did at Churchill Downs, he’d be one to watch again.
Caracortado
I picture good ole “Scarface” in his stall two weekends ago watching the chaos of the Derby and remarking: “Do you know what a haza is, Mike (Machowsky)? It’s a horse – who don’t run straight!” All he has in this world are his guts and his heart. He began with 5 consecutive victories, entrenching himself as a weekly “Cris Carter” reference on our Derby watch lists. However, the world was not his, and his empire collapsed around him with back to back losses (including the Santa Anita Derby). He’s back now, and he’s ready to eat the competition for breakfast. He also thinks girls like ice cream, but I digress.
Pleasant Prince
His connections were dreaming when they wrote this, so sue them if this goes astray. When he woke up this morning coulda swore it was Derby day. Anyone with Eastern European ancestory already knows this, but as Pleasant Prince and Ice Box learned so well earlier in the year: “what a difference a nose can make!” The prince was nosed by Ice Box in the Florida Derby, who went on to explode for 2nd in the Kentucky Derby. Last out he was 3rd in the Derby Trial behind Hurricane Ike and Aikenite. A nose, a nose, his kingdom for a nose!
Dublin
Big, beautiful chestnut will once again go to post for legendary Preakness trainer D. Wayne Lukas. You know me – I’m a sucker for chestnuts, but I’m on the fence with this guy. Each race he seems to unleash a fairly solid move – and then suddenly runs flat the rest of the way. Then again, he is a son of Afleet Alex, and all one need do is remember the magic of the 2005 Preakness. I’m expecting improvement this weekend.
Hurricane Ike
I like Ike. The winner of the Derby Trial is trainer John Sadler’s first Preakness runner. Took six tries to break his maiden but has shown marked improvement since, including a 2nd place finish two races back to Eightyfiveinafifty in the G3 Bayshore. If he can handle the distance, he’s got a shot to make some noise this weekend.
Yawanna Twist
Earned some praise by finishing 2nd in the G3 Gotham to Awesome Act and the Grade 3 Illinois Derby to American Lion, but the performances of those two in the Kentucky Derby did little to flatter his chances. He does have tricky Rick Dutrow in his corner though. Stranger things have happened.
Jackson Bend
Routinely lampooned during the Derby prep season despite running his heart out for 2nd place finishes to Eskendereya on separate occassions. So distance and class finally caught up with him in the Derby, where he finished 12th. If you go back and watch that trip, considering how wide he was, that actually isn’t as bad as it seems.
First Dude
Became the dude that benefitted from the scratch of A Little Warm. Hasn’t won since the end of January (1/30 at Gulfstream), but has finished 5th in the G1 Florida Derby and 3rd in the G1 Toyota Bluegrass. Got a feeling he’s improving at the right time, but it would still be a surprise to see him in the winner’s circle.
Schoolyard Dreams
A victory by he or Super Saver and the legend of Odysseus will live on forever. Tough to remember that this horse had that Tampa Bay Derby won, only to lose in the final stride. The son of Stephen Got Even drilled 5 furlongs in :59.60 on 5/7. Would need to improve to threaten.
Aikenite
We’ve seen this story before, haven’t we? Stablemate to the Derby winner and perhaps another contender in Mission Impazible. A forgotten horse totally written off and thought to have no chance? He’s a one-run closing type that will need some help in front, but his coworkers ought to help with that. His 2nd in the Derby Trial and 3rd in the Bluegrass suggests he’s moving forward. I’m considering adding him into my exotic plays on Preakness day as I suspect he’ll be dismissed by most.
Northern Giant
On the plus side, he was 2nd to Dean’s Kitten in the G2 Lane’s End, and 3rd in the G2 Risen Star. On the down side he was 9th in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. No rider has been named yet, but the horse helps mark the 11th time D. Wayne Lukas has sent multiple entries to post in the Preakness.
So there you have ‘em, folks – you’re 2010 Preakness contenders. The obvious question for all is: Who do you like in the Preakness?
We’ll be back later in the week for a recap of the Alibi Breakfast at Pimlico on Thursday morning. Selections for the Black Eyed Susan card on Friday will follow, and then our picks for all of the races on Preakness Day will be up Friday night and into Saturday.
Rachel Alexandra - Photo by Jim McCue of the Maryland Jockey Club
I’ve posted this on Twitter, placed it in recent articles, and feel very strongly about the matter. Following Rachel Alexandra’s victory against older males in the Woodward on Saturday at Saratoga, the race for Horse of the Year would appear to be over. I realize that might be a bold statement considering there are several huge races left to be run this year. I can’t see how anyone else’s campaign could possibly top what we’ve seen unfold before our eyes. The filly who was once rejected by her mother (Lotta Kim) has reached the top of the mountain as the finest horse in racing in all of North America.
This isn’t just a Horse of the Year campaign, it’s a campaign for all times. Arguably the start to a Hall of Fame career. Every time she runs, decades worth of history come crashing down like so many dominoes. She lays waste to the competition, conquers every track she encounters, and can lay claim to achieving truly unprecedented results.
“…any talk of another horse being worthy of Horse of the Year honors is patently absurd.”
Interestingly, I actually believe that if the Zenyatta camp had travelled east to face Rachel in the Woodward, they would’ve had a very big shot to prevail. Especially considering how the pace setup ultimately played out. The closers (Bullsbay and Macho Again) were rolling late with every chance to catch Rachel. You’d have to think Zenyatta would’ve been coming gamely in the stretch. We must also factor in that Zenyatta would’ve been returning to dirt in a relatively fresh condition.
I just don’t see what Zenyatta can do now to surpass what Rachel has done this year? There would’ve been an opportunity to keep pace by moving up the class ladder and taking on older males in the Pacific Classic, but that didn’t happen. We KNOW that Rachel is the dominant horse of the U.S. east of the Mississippi. Zenyatta? Well, the picture’s a little cloudy for her. She’s a champion and undefeated mare who deserves a great deal of respect, that much is certain.
Don’t you have to feel though that the older male division in California has been somewhat ripe for the taking? I thought Zenyatta would’ve made a lot of sense as a logical contender in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. Sadly, we’ve never had the chance to find out. Hopefully that changes in the future, but even so it might be a case of too little too late.
Even if Zenyatta manages to win the Classic, and let’s assume for a moment that she does win in electrifying fashion against top flight competition, would that be enough to leapfrog everything Rachel has accomplished already? Not in my mind. Of course, this doesn’t even factor in that Zenyatta might run into a horse like Sea the Stars in the Classic. As much respect as I have for her, the 2009 campaign so far does not stack up favorably against the accomplishments of Rachel.
Too strong an opinion? Perhaps, but let’s review that list of accomplishments for Rachel:
Runners who have flattered Rachel with NEXT OUT Stakes wins: -Just Jenda ( G3 Monmouth Oaks)
-Sarah Louise (G3 Victory Ride)
-Gabby’s Golden Gal (G1 Acorn)
-Take the Points (G2 Secretariat)
-Flashing (G1 Test)
-Summer Bird (G1 Travers)
-Joins elite company becoming one of the few 3-year-old fillies in history to defeat Grade 1 older males over a mile or more.
-Faced males in 3 of those 5 Grade 1 races, won ‘em all.
-Perfect 8 for 8 record in 2009, all stakes races.
-Has defeated the winners of the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, Travers Stakes, Whitney Handicap, Stephen Foster – all while winning the Kentucky Oaks, Preakness, Mother Goose, Haskell, and Woodward for herself…and that’s just the last 5 races going back to May.
(read that point above one more time)
-For any other horse (colt or filly) defeating the Kentucky Derby winner would’ve been the centerpiece of their 3-year-old campaign. For Rachel it’s just one of many such moments, and arguably not the biggest or the most memorable. Think about that. That’s really saying something. Just to help you remember how special that moment and the buildup to that historic ride was, take a little walk down memory lane once again:
-Has won Grade 1 races this year at 5 different tracks: Churchill Downs (KY Oaks), Pimlico (Preakness), Belmont Park (Mother Goose), Monmouth Park (Haskell), and Saratoga (Woodward).
-There were 3 more stakes victories starting the campaign in early 2009. Take note of this as it’s the first point in the discussion that Zenyatta’s ’09 campaign draws even by comparison. It’s the basement of Rachel’s accomplishments but currently the ceiling of those Zenyatta has earned thus far in 2009. I think that last sentence bears some reflection.
The thought that all of the above happened in the 3-year-old campaign of a single filly is so unbelievably spectacular that I’m not sure even Horse of the Year renders it full justice. Remember that after all this, she’s still not even a mare yet! It boggles the mind to think of how she might develop if given proper rest to prepare for a 4-year-old campaign.
“…any talk of another horse being worthy of Horse of the Year honors is patently absurd.”
Well, maybe that is a little harsh, but it’s hard to argue with the list of accolades listed above.
Any argument favoring someone else for Horse of the Year is bound to contain speculation about what might happen in the future, or is based on memories from the previous year. In contrast, Rachel’s case is built on events that have actually happened this year. There’s no might or if about them. She’s earned it all on the track.
It’s official. Owner Jess Jackson has announced that the talented and immensely popular filly Rachel Alexandra will not be running in the 2009 Belmont. This sets up perfectly for jockey Calvin Borel, who will now retake the mount of Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird in his quest for an all-Calvin Triple Crown. Sadly, for bloggers like me with a penchant for gratuitous military history references, this negates my ability to discuss the potential rematch between The Derby and Preakness winners as “June 6th, a date that will once again live in infamy” (which I’m fairly certain is an oxymoron considering that once something is truly “infamous”, it’s rather impossible to become infamous once again…you either are infamous, or your not, but I digress).
First, let me say that I tip my hat to Jess Jackson once again. You know that he wanted to showcase his filly in the Belmont, and it probably pains him to have to decide against running her. However, this move proves that he’s not just in this for fame and glory. Like I’ve said before, the man made all the right moves with Curlin, and once again he appears to be doing so with Rachel Alexandra. In fact, the only move he’s ever made that I’ve disagreed with is one in which he really had little choice anyhow; sending Curlin to Santa Anita to run in the ’08 Breeders’ Cup…and it’s important to note that he made the decision to send him for us, the fans, so that we would be able to see him on the sport’s biggest stage. In other words, while I had a hunch (and no doubt Jess did himself as well) that wouldn’t go well, one can certainly understand why the decision was made.
The decision to rest Rachel Alexandra has already sparked quite a bit of passionate discussion on the net. Whether it be Twitter, Facebook, or any other web application out there designed for such discussions, horse fans are talking. Of course, they’ve been talking longer than just today. The past few weeks being filled with opinions from one side of the spectrum to the other regarding Rachel, the Bird, and everything in between. What troubles me though is some of the recent discussion, and I’ll outline why.
The first genre of discussion that bothers me goes something like this:
“I’m glad Rachel isn’t in the Belmont, she’s a filly and would’ve risked being hurt.”
Look, I totally sympathize with horse fans who don’t want to see anyone hurt. Nobody wants to see that. It’s not that concern that worries me so much as it is the hidden inference that somehow fillies are inferior to colts. Do we really need any further proof that this is simply not true (at least as a blanket statement)? They said the same thing about the Preakness, and then Rachel went out and dominated. I don’t recall hearing anyone in France being concerned that Zarkava was facing boys in the world’s richest turf race, the Arc de Triomphe. How’d that one turn out? How about Goldikova last year in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile?And is there anyone who really thinks after the Milady that Zenyatta wouldn’t thrash the California boys at Hollywood, Santa Anita, or Del Mar? I just don’t get it. Surely not all fillies are created equal, so when you’ve got one who is clearly heads and shoulders better than most runners on the planet why should she be held back? Because she’s a “she”? See, I worry sometimes that folks are masking latent sexism behind a thin veil of legitimate concern over injuries/well being. The truth of the matter is that anyone at anytime can get hurt. If we apply this logic across the board, then clearly following Barbaro’s injury we should have stopped all colts from running as well.
The next line of comments goes something like this:
“I’m going to be soooo mad if Mine That Bird wins the Belmont, because that will mean Rachel robbed us of a Triple Crown!”
Huh??? I almost have to throw up in my mouth a bit when I hear this. Almost. Do people even think before they speak? She “robbed” you of a Triple Crown? For starters, let’s not forget that the Belmont hasn’t been run yet, so hold your horses (no pun intended) on anointing Mine That Bird even a theoretical Triple Crown winner. Da’ Tara, Birdstone, and Rags to Riches come to mind in recent memory as clear cut examples of why you never assume a Belmont’s outcome before it’s official. More importantly though, did Rachel Alexandra somehow cheat in the Preakness? Did I miss something? I’m just trying to understand how she “robbed” anyone of anything? If she “robbed” anyone, it was other network programs, as television ratings for the Preakness were through the freakin’ roof. You’d think people would be smart enough to see a star who is exactly what we need when they see one, but apparently not.
Didn’t Mine That Bird have a fair shot to beat her in the Preakness? Didn’t Rachel have to break from the extreme outside, set fairly fast splits being contested all the way, and then hang on in the stretch to win? That’s not robbing, that’s earning, and last time I checked, a horse needs to EARN a Triple Crown. That’s what makes it special. Otherwise we might as well just poll the public for who they’d like to see win and simply declare that horse the winner without ever racing. I can see Dennis Green now, banging on a table and telling reporters to “crown their asses, then!” when asked questions concerning the Chicago Bears. Same goes here. You want a Triple Crown so bad that you’re angry when a horse legitimately defeats a hopeful? Then crown their asses before the race and don’t even bother running.
Also, if I may sidestep for just a gosh darn moment…..where the hell were these people in ’07 when Rags to Riches came out of nowhere to “rob” Curlin??? That was MUCH closer to grand larceny than anything Rachel’s done.
When pressed, most of these people reference the fact that we “haven’t had a Triple Crown winner in 30 years” and that they’d “like to live to see one.” Oh really? Wow…didn’t realize they were so into history. Forgive me, then. It’s just that, well, you know…there are still plenty of folks alive who remember watching and wagering on the last Triple Crown winner. On the other hand, how many folks have you run into out there that remember Nellie Morse in the 1924 Preakness? Yeah…didn’t think so. If you’re going to reference history, then at least acknowledge that 85 years is a hell of a lot longer than 3 decades to wait to see something happen. Then again, we do live in the age of “instant gratification”, more’s the pity.
Look, I’ve got nothing but respect for Mine That Bird now either. He’s a magnificent colt that we ought to see for years to come, considering he’s a gelding. It’s just that I refuse to see him as some victim of a heinous crime. I remember the cat calls from all the Curlin haters back in ’07. “Curlin got beat by a girl!” Yeah, well, so did Mine That Bird, and the girl that beat him wasn’t as fresh as the girl that beat Curlin (nor was Mine That Bird as worn down as Curlin was). Personally I don’t consider the “beat by a girl” thing to be anything but the most childish of equine put-downs, as it never seems to apply to the horses that were truly beaten by open lengths (i.e., did you ever hear anyone say “Tiago got beat by a girl!” or “Hard Spun got beat by a girl!” ? Nope, it was always directed at Curlin…hell, at least he was competitive against a girl. How far back were Hard Spun and Tiago in the ’07 Belmont by comparison?).
The last line of thinking that really grinds my gears goes like this:
“Rachel was exhausted in the Preakness, there’s no way she could get the mile and 1/2 of the Belmont.”
When I hear things like this, I wish I was instantly teleported to a face to face handicapping tournament, winner take all, as obviously these folks think that every race is totally equal and not unique at all.
Yes, Rachel was struggling a bit at the end of the Preakness. How that is supposed to directly translate into defeat or an inability to get the distance of the Belmont is beyond me. Are the two races supposed to be apples to apples? Have folks even considered that the entire pace setup could not only be completely different between the two races, but also explains rather clearly why Rachel was a bit tired at the end of the Preakness?
Consider the following stats. Here are the opening 1/4 mile and 1/2 mile splits between the ’08 Belmont and the “09 Preakness. Something should jump off the page at you regarding the half mile times in particular, even if you’ve never so much as thought about pace handicapping:
See that? Two full seconds faster in the opening half mile of the 2009 Preakness! And why was that exactly? Well, several reasons. In the 2008 Belmont, Da’ Tara got an easy lead. Even on the race replay you can hear the call that the opening half mile was set in a “sensible” time of :48.30. That’s what happens when you have a longer race, and a loose horse on the lead. The pace of longer races tends to be slower than that of shorter races, hence why horses who show speed routing can’t always be trusted to do the same when sprinting, whereas horses that show speed sprinting often will show similar (if not improved) speed routing.
In the ’09 Preakness, Rachel had to earn it every step of the way. She broke from the 13 hole, and had no choice but to gun for the lead or risk being hung wide on the turns. Anyone familiar with playing the Maryland tracks knows full well how vitally important positioning on the turns, and in particular the first turn, can be. Of course, Big Drama happened to be along the rail, and likewise was in a situation where he had to go for it right out of the gate. The result was a speed duel. Typically, if you see two horses eyeball to eyeball with each other through hotly contested opening fractions, you can expect them to start coming back to the rest of the field in the stretch, thus opening up for an off-the-pace runner. It’s a testament to Rachel Alexandra’s class that this did not happen, and that the only runners able to make any headway against her were Mine That Bird, and to a lesser extent Musket Man. That’s what made her win so impressive. It shouldn’t have happened. Most horses would not have pulled it off. In fact, her opening splits were closer to those set by Xchanger and Flying First Class in the ’07 Preakness (1/4 in :22.83, 1/2 in :45.75), and obviously neither of them wound up in the Superfecta.
So yes, she was struggling towards the end, but what exactly was she supposed to look like? Even Chip Woolley, trainer of Mine That Bird, admitted that his colt was fresher by virtue of only really having to run the last 3/8 of a mile of both the Derby and the Preakness. I’m sorry that she didn’t look as majestic as Big Brown in the ’08 Preakness, but she had a bit of a saltier field and a tougher trip to overcome. Eyes can be deceiving though. Again, apples to apples this most certainly is not.
Each race is unique, and one must resist the urge of looking at the ’09 Preakness replay and simpliifying by saying “yup, in another furlong Mine That Bird would’ve caught her.” Would he? Perhaps, but then again the entire race would’ve been different. The only thing you can be assured of is that if THAT EXACT running of the Preakness happened again, but went a furlong further, that perhaps Mine That Bird would have caught her. That’s it. That’s the only certain conclusion one can make. The rest is pure speculation or opinion….not that their’s anything wrong with either, necessarily, it’s just that when they are repeated as fact folks can get the wrong ideas. I’m just saying keep that in mind when you hear folks spouting off (and yes, that includes me and indeed this rant right here).
Similarly, we must resist the urge of DEMANDING a rematch between either Rachel and The Bird in the Belmont, or Rachel and Zenyatta at some later date. Would those races be exciting? Most definitely! But we can’t reduce ourselves to the plebians in the Colliseum, demanding that Caesar show us another round of gladitorial combat. Let the horsemen do what’s right for the horses, and let’s hope that we’re lucky enough to see them in their prime again before they are gone.
In conclusion, here’s hoping Rachel enjoys her much deserved time off. Rest up, baby girl. There are big plans for you both this summer and beyond. Personally, I’m hoping Jess sends her to Saratoga. I can think of no other track more befitting of an appearance by the queen herself. Now, if we could just get Zenyatta’s people to come face her….
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