With less than two months until the 2011 Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May, the 3-year-old thoroughbred division is starting to take shape as we separate the legitimate contenders from the numerous pretenders. On Saturday racing fans were treated to solid performances from two serious racehorses, as well as a disappointing performance from a horse thought by many to be among the elite.
Uncle Mo, last seen in November crushing the field of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by 4 1/4 lengths, returned to action in what for all intents and purposes amounted to a public workout in the Timely Writer at Gulfstream Park. The son of Indian Charlie was making his first start of the season for trainer Todd Pletcher, who opted for the softer 1-turn mile rather than bang heads with stablemate Brethren in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Despite being bumped at the start of the race, Uncle Mo wound up winning for fun in 1:36.56, drawing clear by 3 3/4 lengths. While the champ still clearly has the goods, there may be room for some concern as he’ll have just one additional start (presumably the Grade 1 Wood Memorial on April 9) before the Derby with which to prepare for the longer distances (and added turn) of the Triple Crown season.
As the evening progressed, another of Todd Pletcher’s purported contenders, Sam F. Davis winner Brethren, was sent to post assumed to be the class of the field in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. Instead a pair of longshots in Watch Me Go (43/1) and Crimson Knight (86/1) handed the son of Distorted Humor his first lifetime defeat in what has to be considered a disappointing effort.
It wasn’t just that he got beat – he got beat after relatively pedestrian early fractions (:23.73 and :48.20) by horses whose class would not appear to stack up against the heavyweights of the division. Brethren had soundly defeated Watch Me Go by 5 lengths in the Sam F. Davis stakes on February 12. Like many, it looks like I may have wasted a spot in my Road to the Roses stable on Brethren.
Brethren - "I Am Disappoint"
As the saying goes, often we find that the best is saved for last – and that was certainly the case this weekend as attention shifted westward to Santa Anita for the Grade 2 San Felipe. Premier Pegasus, the horse that my good friend Tencent has been heralding as his Derby selection since last Fall, was absolutely brilliant in cruising to a 7 length victory over what appeared on paper to be a very interesting group of horses. In the process he likely stamped his ticket to the Kentucky Derby by virtue of picking up $150k in precious graded stakes earnings.
The son of 2000 Kentucky Derby champion Fusaichi Pegasus also served notice to Uncle Mo and the rest of the Derby contenders that there was a new face in town – and one that would appear to mean serious business.
The victory gives Korean-born trainer Myung Kwon Cho a chance to rise from the ranks of the relatively unknown to celebrity if he can continue to move forward and avoid any setbacks between now and May. Premier Pegasus may have benefited from a hot pace in the San Felipe (opening splits were :21.75 and :44.58, respectively), but when a horse makes an explosive move like that in the turn and then opens up a veritable can of whoop-ass in the stretch, I think you’d be wise to take notice and give serious respect.
PrePeg, as his fans call him, was 7 3/4 lengths ahead of the late closing Jaycito at the wire, stopping the timer in the 1 1/16 mile San Felipe at 1:41.23. He returned $16.43 for the win, as the betting public let him get away at odds of 7/1 at post time.
The PrePeg/Jaycito Exacta returned $24.30 and if you backed the good looking colt Bench Points on the bottom of the Trifecta you were rewarded with a payout of $201.60. Pace factor Comma at the Top rounded out a Superfecta that returned $935.10.
Coming up next weekend is the $300k Grade 2 Rebel Derby at Oaklawn Park. I may not have been posting as frequently this year for numerous reasons, but suffice to say the action this weekend has sparked the fire and I’ve done a bit of housecleaning this weekend as a result – including a new Derby Watch List page with rankings and race replays for the key Kentucky Derby prep races. I’ve attached a screenshot of my latest rankings below (just click on the table below for an easier to read full sized image).
"Derby Fever" - the Dutchland Blitz apparently have it, how about you?
A trifecta of prep races for the 2010 Kentucky Derby await horse racing fans this Saturday afternoon. The Wood Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby will be broadcast LIVE on NBC this weekend beginning at 5 PM (ET), offering a rare opportunity for the public to catch a glimpse of some of the more highly heralded Kentucky Derby contenders. In fact, nearly half of the horses from our 5th installment of the Kentucky Derby rankings will be on display in the form of Eskendereya (2nd), Lookin at Lucky (3rd), Awesome Act (4th), and Sidney’s Candy (8th).
Last weekend’s broadcast of the Lane’s End (G2), and Louisiana Derby (G2)reportedly drew only “modest ratings” for NBC/USA’s “Road to the Kentucky Derby” venture, but I’ll remind critics that those races, while interesting, did not have the “star power” of the Rachel/Zenyatta fest a few weeks earlier, and were in fact a “first step” that we must take in building a lasting interest in the sport. In other words: Rome wasn’t built in a day – so let’s not act surprised that masses didn’t show up.
This is going to be a long, sometimes painful and most certainly humbling experience as we attempt to grow the sport. Still, I’d encourage racing fans to do all they can this weekend to drum up interest in our game. We MUST capitalize on opportunities to bask in the limelight.
Moving on to the races themselves, we’ll start with the Wood Memorial from Aqueduct.
A small, but interesting field awaits bettors jumping into the Wood Memorial fray. I’ll say this up front, this probably isn’t a good betting race, as ESKENDEREYA is sure to get absolutely hammered at the windows and is without question the horse to beat. Everyone knows I’m in love with Odysseus, but one of the more subtle things I’ve been doing in our Derby rankings is placing ESKENDEREYA just ahead of Lookin at Lucky. I do that because in my heart-of-hearts, I firmly believe this is the best 3-year-old in training at the moment (despite my affection for Odysseus).
I see this race as pretty simple. ESKENDEREYA will sit just off of the early pace, which should come from MOST HAPPY FELLA, and will get first jump on that one as the field enters the turn, looking to pull away in the stretch. My guess is that they won’t ask the horse for all he’s got in the stretch, even if pressed, as they’ll have their eyes firmly set on a stretch run a month from now at Churchill Downs as the primary target.
If you’re looking to beat the favorite, I thought one colt had a fairly good chance here. AWESOME ACT is an absolutely beautiful son of Awesome Again that I at first publicly dismissed prior to the Grade 3 Gotham. I’ll never make that mistake again, as I think this horse has an explosive turn-of-foot that should give him a chance in any race, provided he has some pace to run at. MOST HAPPY FELLA and ESKENDEREYA should provide that setup today. The question, of course, is whether AWESOME ACT can catch ESKENDEREYA in the stretch? I’m not sure he can, but if anyone in this field could pull it off, it would be him.
As for the rest of the field, it would obviously be good for an Odysseus fan like me if SCHOOLYARD DREAMS were to run big, but I view him as being a bit outclassed at the moment by the top two runners here. I could see him hitting the board for a minor award, but I’d be shocked if he pulled off the upset.
JACKSON BEND is a bit interesting here as this horse has been getting the “Rodney Dangerfield treatment” all year. Disrespected as “just a Calder horse” and one who “can’t get the distance”, all this guy does is find his way into the Exacta each time he races. Calvin Borel will hop aboard the Nick Zito trainee, who could be somewhat forgotten on the tote board.
Selections for the G1 Wood Memorial:
#3 Eskendereya (4/5*)
#2 Awesome Act (9/2)
#5 Jackson Bend (4/1)
Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby – Santa Anita – Race 6 (5:36 PM ET)
We head out west to beautiful Santa Anita, home of the 2008 and 2009 Breeders’ Cup Championships, for the prestigious Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. The field sets up like this (note: odds were not available as of this writing).
#1 Posse Power
#2 Thomas Baines
#3 Who’s Up
#4 Sidney’s Candy
#5 Setsuko
#6 Caracortado
#7 Lookin at Lucky
#8 Cardiff Giant
#9 Skipshot
#10 Alphie’s Bet
LOOKIN AT LUCKY has returned to his familiar stomping grounds after a brief foray over the dirt at Oaklawn Park in the Grade 2 Rebel. We know the son of Smart Strike is a gutsy competitor who will be in every fight, and without question he is trainer Bob Baffert’s top shooter for the Kentucky Derby. He’s got some decent horses line up against him here, but one gets the feeling he’ll find a way to will himself to the wire on top somehow. The big question for his fans will be whether or not it winds up being the type of effort he can move forward from headed into the Kentucky Derby? Only time will tell.
In the Grade 2 San Felipe, SIDNEY’S CANDY got loose on the lead and was able to set some fairly easy early fractions, enabling a wire-to-wire victory over the likes of CARACORTADO and Interactif. It looks to me like the same thing might happen here. The only other horse I could see perhaps pressing that pace a bit might be WHO’S UP, while LOOKIN AT LUCKY sits just behind whatever is going on between them. If so, SIDNEY”S CANDY would seem to be a lock to hit the board, and the stretch run between the son of Candy Ride and LOOKIN AT LUCKY could be a good one.
SETSUKO is a horse I’vehad in my Road to the Roses fantasy stable since day 1, but who failed as the tepid favorite against ALPHIE”S BET in the Grade 3 Sham. Even so, there’s something about this horse that I like, and I keep anticipating improvement. Another move forward and he’s right there with the contenders, so hopefully he’ll offer some value underneath in the exotics.
As for the rest of the field, at one point in time CARACORTADO was one of my “Cris Carter” types that “all they do is win horse races.” Now I’m not so sure. I’m a bit unclear as to how Scarface stacks up against the bigger named horses at Santa Anita, and while he’s got a great shot to hit the board, he won’t be one of my top selections. That doesn’t mean he won’t be on my tickets, just that he’s not in my top 3 mentioned below.
Two horses who could offer some additional value are ALPHIE’S BET, breaking from the extreme outside (which did not hinder him in the Sham), and WHO’S UP, who has been working well in preparation for this effort despite the long layoff.
Selections for the G1 Santa Anita Derby:
#7 Lookin at Lucky
#4 Sidney’s Candy
#5 Setsuko
Grade 3 Illinois Derby – Hawthorne – Race 7
The Illinois Derby will NOT be shown live on NBC along with the Wood and the Santa Anita Derby, but I thought it was worth adding to the coverage here nonetheless. The field sets up like this:
#1 American Lion (7/2)
#2 Stephen’s Got Hope (8/1)
#3 Boulder Creek (10/1)
#4 Yawanna Twist (4/1)
#5 Turf Melody (6/1)
#6 Dave in Dixie (9/2)
#7 Backtalk (3/1)
#8 Game Ball (12/1)
I’ll keep things relatively simple here, as I thought AMERICAN LION stood a good chance to take this field wire-to-wire in an otherwise paceless race (on paper). Hawthorne is historically a speed favoring track, so if the son of Tiznow gets loose, this one could be over before it begins. Of course, it goes without saying that I’ve never met a Tiznow I didn’t like.
As for the rest of the field, I thought you could make a case for BACKTALK, YAWANNA TWIST, and perhaps TURF MELODY here. Needless to say I’ll be rooting for TURF MELODY since he comes from my main man Graham Motion’s barn, but I wouldn’t be shocked if any of these hit the board. DAVE IN DIXIE is another horse I like, but he appears to have some bad luck and may be up against it here from a pace setup.
“Were these things real or are they but the vagaries of mine own imagination?”
- Private Sam Watkins, Company Aytch (H), 1st Tennessee Volunteers
Unbelievable: the word captures the feelings still percolating among the masses as they continue to deal with the unanticipated defeat of the 2009 Horse of the Year, Rachel Alexandra, at the hands of the relatively unknown Zardana in her first start of the 2010 season. The word also describes how fans felt who watched as the defending Breeders’ Cup Classic champion, Zenyatta, appeared trapped at the top of the stretch for the Santa Margarita, as the undefeated daughter of Street Cry was forced to duck inside and do some dirty work from down along the rail before pulling off in typical Slow Cheetah style.
To be certain, there were numerous players who thought either horse might be worth playing against, but I’m sure in their hearts they fully expected both champions to prevail. As we’ve been reminded countless times in the last 24 hours, Rachel Alexandra becomes the first defending Horse of the Year in the last 10 attempts to lose her debut race the following campaign. Of course, we also know that most great horses eventually lose – including greats like Kelso and Secretariat. The trouble is, for Rachel at least, that her rival, Zenyatta, doesn’t lose. She almost did once to Anaaba’s Creation, in what would’ve been an equally upsetting, well, upset, but found a way to gut out a win.
Let there be no mistake about it: Zenyatta is the best horse on the planet. It’s not even open for debate anymore at this point in time.
That’s not to say I’m taking anything away from Rachel Alexandra. Far from it. Unlike the throngs of absolutely classless Zenyatta fans (oh yeah, I’m calling YOU OUT if you were one…if you weren’t then please don’t take offense) who actually cheered that Rachel was losing. The living embodiment of the words “classless” and “disgusting.” I can only assume that in their adolescent minds this Saturday’s race was some sort ofreferendum on the 2009 Horse of the Year voting. It wasn’t, as anyone with an IQ over 40 understands. 2009 was about 2009, and that issue has been settled and debated to death.
Seriously, I wasn’t there to see it firsthand and so don’t want to spend a lot of time talking about it, but both folks on TVG and Twitter reported that fans at Santa Anita were “cheering” and “celebrating” Rachel’s defeat. I hold out hope that these reports are untrue or were grossly misrepresented and/or taken out of context. If, however, you were among those doing so – shame on you. SHAME!!!!!! Nothing but shame, and eternal shame! Just absolutely Wal-Mart trailer-trashified if you ask me.
Suffice to say that these reports were received as absolutely sickening by just about anyone with a pulse outside of California. This ranks right up there with Eagles fans booing Santa Clause and cheering the injury of Cowboys receiver Michael Irvin. The only way it’s excusable, in my mind, is if those cheering had wagered serious cash on Zardana to pull the upset. If that’s the case – yes, you have every reason to erupt in celebration. Something tells me though that was not the driving force behind the episode.
Ironically, it was during the stretch run of Zenyatta’s victory just minutes later that we were publicly admonished by the Santa Anita track announcer “if you don’t have goosebumps now, you’re not a fan of horse racing!”
Really?????
Taken on its own merit, I fully agree with the sentiment of the statement. The timing of its delivery though, coming hot off the heels of thereports of Santa Anita fans rejoicing and celebrating at Rachel Alexandra’s downfall, could not have been worse. It left many perplexed as to just where in the hell anyone associated with Santa Anita would get off thinking they had any wiggle room to lecture the rest of us as to how “real fans” of horse racing ought to think, feel, or act.
What’s next, Nancy Pelosi telling us we need to be more fiscally responsible? Michael Vick chastising us over how we treat our pets? Octomom offering crtitical reviews of our parental skills (or lack thereof)?
The whole thing was laughable at best, if not somewhat aggravating.
Most “real fans” I know were pulling heavily for both horses to win. Obviously some self-described fans of one horse (but not the other) actually hate the “other side.” This is unfortunate and not something I subscribe to in our sport, but I suppose it’s what happens with great rivalries. No doubt many Ali fans despised Frazier. Yankee and Red Sox fans aren’t known for their cordial demeanor to one another. I think I detest Sidney Crosby (just a bit) for scoring that overtime goal in the Gold Medal game of the 2010 Winer Olympics to defeat Team USA in overtime. Obviously there’s the Bama/Auburn rivalry I was born into. And of course, I’ve never found room in my heart to forgive either the 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates or the 1989 Toronto Blue Jays for crushing the hopes and dreams of my beloved Baltimore Orioles.
So yes, I get it – and I know many folks just have trouble containing their emotions and displaying “the better angels of our nature” when they are flushed with either victory or defeat. It does makes it extremely hard for those who identify themselves as Rachel fans to even be able to cheer for Zenyatta at all (though I concede that if Saturday’s results were the other way around, I might be penning admonishing words to Rachel fans for behaving in classless fashion towards Zenyatta fans, so I digress).
I guess I’m a poster child for this phenomenon/dichotomy/conundrum. Perennially torn between both factions. Zenyatta was a horse I fell in love with on paper in her maiden race, and then followed closely here as she progressed up the ranks. BEFORE the great masses who exist now had showed up. I remember screaming from the rooftops when she won her allowance victory that she was a “future Grade 1 winner, at least” (with the “at least” part suggesting the sky was the limit for her). Turns out that suspicion was correct and that she’s not just a Grade 1 winner, but an undefeated Classic winner who is every bit a champion and then some.
Then Rachel came along. A once-in-a-lifetime 3-year-old that broke hundreds of years of historical precedence every time she took to the track. Her 2009 campaign, despite all of the recent bashing from “haters” who are coming out of the woodworks in droves now, was a thing of beauty. No 3-year-old filly had ever achieved such a distinguished mark of races won. Was she ever better than Zenyatta? In hindsight, I don’t think so, but see – that’s where most fans get caught up. They mistakenly assume that “Horse of the Year” should be bestowed upon whomever would likely win a theoretical race between the competitors. It’s not about that. It’s about who had the better overall campaign.
I maintain that a slightly more aggressive campaign with Zenyatta in 2009 would’ve locked up Horse of the Year. She certainly had the race of the year, but for months while Zenyatta was barely in the news, Rachel was shattering history at numerous tracks. Oh well. At this point in time folks have heard it all before, so it’s not like anything I type is going to change anyone’s mind. Everyone’s an expert – and everyone knows better than the Eclipse Award voters….yet everyone cowered like frightened schoolgirls when we suggested opening up the voting process to the public (far easier to sit back and criticize whatever happens in the voting from a safe distance, I suppose).
So where do we go from here?
Well, it all depends on how Rachel Alexandra returns from the race. Personally, I don’t think she looked ready to take on Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom. I can’t imagine Jess Jackson will send her. I know she’s been off for 6 months, and that her training schedule wasn’t ideal, and she “needed a race”, but it would seem only those with extreme hubris or a personal lust to see her throttled on the big stage would dare put her in a race against Zenyatta now.
I wonder…if Rachel is scratched from the Apple Blossom, how many of those Zenyatta fans that actually cheered for Rachel’s defeat, and who also hold tickets for Oaklawn, will piss and moan about being “cheated” ? That would be priceless! One can only hope they take a healthy dose of egg on their face in some fashion.
That’s what I never understood about this situation. Even if you are the most diehard Zenyatta fan and the most rabid of Rachel bashers – you should’ve been pulling for victories by both horses on Saturday. That would’ve only hyped the Apple Blossom even more, and made any victory over the other horse all the more celebrated. Just as the call for the Santa Margarita implored “if you don’t have goosebumps now, you don’t like horse racing” - well, guess what Californians – right back at you. If you weren’t pulling for both horses, you don’t like horse racing. Period.
I equate this to what I go through during SEC football season. I’m a diehard Crimson Tide fan. I HATE Auburn, Tennessee, and Florida with a passion (to the extent that the color orange actually can make me physically ill) – yet you best believe yourself that I’d prefer to face all of those teams when they are undefeated rather than in some weakened state fresh off a humbling defeat. Anyone remember last year’s SEC Championship game? What made beating the Florida Gators in that game so special was that they were the undefeated, defending national champions – not some weakened foe that many saw as a “paper tiger.”
In fact, there’s a direct comparison we can draw between that SEC Championship Game and the supposed cheering of Santa Anita fans as Rachel was defeated by Zardana in the New Orleans Ladies.
In the final minutes of Alabama’s romp over Florida, the big screen at the Georgia Dome flashed an image of Gators quarterback Tim Tebow crying on the sidelines. The stadium, and most Alabama fans erupted in joy. I’ll admit – for a fleeting moment I smiled, thinking of Alabama’s motto (“make their ass quit!!!”). As such, I think I can relate to what “Zenyatta fans” (those who are exclusively Zenyatta fans rather than fans of both horses) must’ve experienced the past year. Every news broadcast, every College Gameday presentation – all were filled with references to “Gators this” and “Tebow that.” Most announcers seemed to have an unnatural Tebow-fetish. To defeat him on such a big stage was euphoric, if not outright epic.
Within minutes though, I was posting this to Florida fans across the net:
“Hold your heads high, Gator fans. You’ve got nothing to be ashamed of. We know damn well it’s you we’ll have to face next year, and the year after that (and so on) if we want to repeat as SEC champs. While I’m celebrating this victory with everything I’ve got, please know from one SEC fan to another that it pains me to see your magnificent quarterback reduced to tears of defeat. He’s a warrior, and that’s not the way he deserves to go out. Pick those heads up and go knock the tar out of folks in the Sugar Bowl! We’ll see you next year for another epic conference championship.”
Man, what I wouldn’t give to see ONE classy comment from a self-proclaimed Zenyatta fan (and non Rachel fan) out there, if only to reinforce my general belief in humanity that normally defines me. Sadly, all I hear so far is “nah-nah-boo-booing”, which while infinitely entertaining for children under the ages of 5, tends to get old to the rest of us pretty fast.
Wow…this far into the article and I’ve barely got to talk about the races themselves.
Zenyatta’s move was remarkable. Much like Odysseus in the Tampa Bay Derby earlier in the day, it looked for a moment when Mike Smith sent her to the inside that the unthinkable was about to repeat itself. She seemed to have nowhere to go. Luckily some room did open up, and she began to extend those amazon-esque strides when she needed to, inhaling everything in her path. In fact, it almost seemed like someone reminded Dance to My Tune (the off-the-charts longshot who would’ve won, had Zenyatta not caught her) that she wasn’t supposed to win.
Amazing performance? You betcha. But, if I can say one thing – Dance to My Tune had not finished in an exacta since 2008. I’m just sayin’ – we’ve seen Zenyatta beat the best before, and this field certainly was one she was supposed to toy with.
Of course, so was Rachel in the New Orleans Ladies. I actually thought, despite the contentious pace setup on paper, that we’d see more of a Mother Goose style performance rating off the pace and then exploding in the turn. Instead it looked like Calvin Borel was fighting her a bit early in an effort to keep her relaxed, and that she simply had nothing in the tank for the final 16th of a mile when she needed it the most.
Anyone doubt that we could“Take Back Saturday” now (if we’d just get our butts in gear)? Temper a bit of the excitement with the fact that the majority of those “NTRA” searches were from folks like yours truly in mad, rabid bids to attempt to access the promised “LIVE streaming video” that the NTRA absolutely choked on delivering. So much so that I actually felt embarrassed for having spent energy broadcasting to folks all over the internet that the live streaming was supposed to be available.
There they were – no doubt in greater numbers than anyone (including me) had anticipated. Real fans – the kind of fans who go out of there way to organize an entire day around the haphazard channel and multi-media surfing we force them into, if only to catch a fleeting glimpse of our future stars. Real fans – ones who don’t need to quantify the validity of their fanship by categorizing the physical reactions of their epidermis in response to unfolding situations on the track, and who aren’t participating in orgies of celebration over the downfall of a perceived foe. Real fans – folks who just love horse racing. We had them – and we failed to deliver.
Alex Waldrop has already issued a public apology on the matter. Look, I know folks will snicker and laugh, but I’m glad he’s done so. The situation was utterly unacceptable and displayed everything that’s been so damn frustrating for those of us that tirelessly try to promote this game. We aren’t paid marketing staff. We aren’t on anyone’s salary list. We work day jobs, raise families, and spend significant portions of our “home time” thinking up ideas to promote the sport and then firing off posts hoping to attract someone from out there in the vast expanse of the internet. And then, just when we’re on the cusp of making a monumental turning point – we’re failed by technology and those who promised us they had our backs.
It’s disheartening – but having met the folks from the NTRA, I’m satisfied that they understand this can never happen again. I know they are racing fans at heart and I’m sure they are angered that this didn’t go off as planned. Alex is a stand-up guy and issuing a public apology to the enraged masses (heck, even I dropped an “f-bomb” about the situation over on Twitter. I’m only human – and I was PISSED) was the right thing to do. He didn’t waste any time in doing so, either – nor did he fill it with political or party-line mumbo jumbo. Just “straight-up”, we screwed up, we apologize, we’ll fix it. I respect that approach. Now let’s just make darn sure we deliver on that promise next time through. NO EXCUSES!
If yesterday taught us anything it’s that we’ve go what it takes to turn some heads with our marquee racing action on a Saturday afternoon. Kudos to the folks behind the Santa Anita operation that actually got the Santa Margarita broadcast LIVE on ESPN News. That was a much needed pick-me-up following the New Orleans Ladies debacle. Remember folks – accessibility/availability is the first and most crucial component towards growing the sport. ”People will come” – but we have to tell them where to go. :)
As for the other races on the day? How ’boutmy boy Odysseus!!!
Who wants on the bandwagon now? Left for dead as the field turned for home in the Tampa Bay Derby, somehow he rallied to fight his way into an EPIC photo finish with Schoolyard Dreams. No matter how many times you watch this replay, it still seems unfathomable that he got there – but he did! Suffice to say, he validated my aggressivetop 5 placement in our most recent Kentucky Derby rankings, as did Lookin’ at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy (currently my #10 horse). I also thought Interactif looked “hella” good running second behind Sidney’s Candy. We’ll have our updated Kentucky Derby rankings posted shortly.
It’s no surprise to those who come here often that I tend to get a bit “pumped up” on big time racing days. No speech in the history of mankind does the trick in terms of getting the mind ready for these days more than the rousing St. Crispin’s Day speech delivered by HenryV as the “poor starved band” of English prepared to receive their French host at Agincourt.
This actually began with a bit of wine-induced posting over on Ernie Munick’sFacebook page, and then over on theTVG Community. This isn’t the first time I’ve offered a (bad) paraphrase of the speech in an attempt to capture the moment. These, my friends, are the days we live for! Take Back Saturday!!! Rachel and Zenyatta!!!!!
Don’t forget, if you can’t get the races live on television, the NTRA will be offering LIVE video streaming of BOTH races at www.ntra.com.
And so, I humbly present the following, in honor of the return of Zenyatta in the Santa Margarita and Rachel Alexandra in the New Orleans Ladies.
“Proclaim it, racing fans through my host.
That he who hath no stomach to this race,
may he depart.
His passport shall be made and crowns for convoy placed in his purse.
We would not cheer in that mans company, who fears his fellowship to cheer our girls home.
They call this race the New Orleans Ladies.
And she, who wins tomorrow and comes safe home,
will stand a tip-toe when this day is named, and rouse him at the name of Rachel.
And she who shall win this day, at Santa Anita,
will yearly, on the vigil, feast her neighbors,
And say ‘tomorrow is Santa Margarita.”
Then will she strip her saddle and show her scars,
and say ‘these wounds I had on St. Margarita Day.”
All fans forget, and all shall be forgot,
but she’ll remember, with advantages what FEATS she did that day!
Then shall their names, familiar in our mouths as household words:
Zenyatta, the Classic champion
Rachel, the Horse of the Year
Be in our flowing cups freshly remembered.
These stories, shall the good fan teach his son!!!
And Saturday shall ne’er go bye,
from this day, to the ENDING OF THE WORLD,
but they in it shall be remembered.
These happy two. This band of sisters.
For any filly or mare who races for us this day shall be our daughter. Be she ne’er so vile. This day shall gentle her condition.
And racing fans in horsedom shall think themselves a-CURSED they were not here,
and hold their MANHOODS CHEAP,
whilst any speaks -
who watched with us…….upon this Saturday!!!!”
Now bestow yourself, loyal fans, for our ladies are bravely in their battles set and shall with all expedience race before us!
Go, brave horses, race away, and as thou pleasest all, WIN THE DAY!!!!!
By the way, since I didn’t post any handicapping picks this weekend, here’s a quick 50-cent Pick 4 for Tampa Bay starting in the Hillsborough (Race 8).
1,4,6 with 3,6 with 2,4,6,9 with 6,7
Should be a $24 play. Even though Odysseus is my boy, I had to add in Super Saver so as not to avoid getting “Pletchered” again here. I also think Charly and Schoolyard Dreams make some sense in the Tampa Bay Derby, but my gut tells me Odysseus and Super Saver are the best horses in this race.
Best of luck to all! We’ll close with an awesome video that started making it’s rounds a few days ago. Remember the famed “keyboard cat” of youtube fame? Behold: the next generation.
Play ‘em off for me, Keyboard Cat!
Hells yeah. I could get used to that! Boo-boo. Boo-boo-boo-BOO-boo (meow)
Living on the east coast, the impending weekend is probable cause for outright celebration. For the first time since any of us can remember (seeming to harken back to mystic days of yore that only the oldest of old timers here can recall with any lucid vividity), the weekend forecast is not rife with winter storm warnings, blizzard predictions, or record snowfall accumulation already on the ground. At long last, my friends, the great winds of Spring change have begun to blow!
Ah, yes – the Ides of March will soon be upon us in less than two weeks time. That wild, unpredictable, whirlwind time of year where Caesars are felled and aspiring young horses get that extra tap of the whip to let them know “get going, buddy, it’s showtime.”
True to form, it appears that March may be entering like a lion for our friends near the California racetracks. For them I can only offer the solace that comes with knowing that the arrival of Spring heralds the approaching bloom of everything from majestic Oaks to Apple Blossoms. Yes, good people – there is reason to rejoice!
For those 3-year-olds still hoping to secure enough earnings to cement a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May, however, it’s starting to become desperation time. Little room for error is afforded the contestants. One false move, one bad race – and the whole dream can be over before it ever really began.
Two primary opportunities are available to such hopefuls this weekend, with the Gotham at Aqueduct and the rescheduled Sham at Santa Anita (Grade 3′s both..with the rescheduled Sham perhaps in danger of being rescheduled yet again. More on that in a moment).
That’s right – this weekend New York, at least, will get to stamp it’s place on the Derby trail. One can almost hear Jay-Z and Alicia Keys being queued up in the background, in perhaps the most overplayed refrain of the year:
“Let’s hear it for New York! These streets will make you feel brand new. Big lights will inspire you…”
(Hey, that’s still better than R. Kelly’s insufferable “Gotham City”)
I wonder if that Jay-Z tune is playing on any of the horse’s iPods as they train in the morning and prepare for the big race ahead?
The Gotham (Grade 3) – Aqueduct – 1 1/16 miles (5:12 ET)
Three Day Rush (4/1)
Yawanna Twist (5/1)
Nacho Friend (8/1)
Awesome Act (7/2*)
I’ve Got The Fever (12/1)
Peppi Knows (10/1)
Shrimp Dancer (12/1)
Turf Melody (8/1)
Afleet Again (20/1)
Wow Wow Wow (6/1)
Tepid morning line favoritism has been bestowed upon trainer Jeremy Noseda’s entry AWESOME ACT, who will pick up the services of jockey Julien Leparoux. The son of Awesome Again will be making his dirt debut, which might be reason to give some bettors pause before accepting low odds. We know he can win on turf, and he certainly closed well in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf when bested by Pounced, Bridgetown, and Interactif. What worries me is that there’s not a lot of workout information to suggest he will prefer the dirt, and the other angle I like to consider (versatility on multiple surfaces) for runners making such a move doesn’t appear very promising either, having finished 3rd in a field of 5 in his only synthetic start. If he makes a good post parade impression I may be enticed, but for now I’m passing.
Everything trainer Todd Pletcher touches has turned to gold lately, so it seems a no brainer that THREE DAY RUSH has to be considered a player in this race at 4/1 second choice on the morning line. That being said, he was third behind two of today’s rivals last out in the Whirlaway. Two races back he was able to wire a field (like all other Pletcher runners, it seems) at the Allowance level at Gulstream Park. I expect this horse to take serious play at the windows, and he should be a factor, but once again I’ll side against conventional wisdom as I’m a bit worried that the colt’s only wins have come sprinting at the 6 furlong distance.
Which brings me to PEPPI KNOWS, a solid 10/1 choice on the morning line. I don’t expect to get odds that favorable come post time, but hopefully he’s still a decent price on the board. The son of Stephen Got Even might be due to bounce back to earth, but note that his effort 2 back was a game 2nd to the once highly heralded Buddy’s Saint. His running lines suggest he’s a horse that knows how to win, and that it will take a pretty good horse to beat him. I’m going to make him my top choice here.
Another runner I think has a big chance here at very favorable odds is AFLEET AGAIN. I almost had to do a double take when I saw the 20/1. If you like PEPPI KNOWS at all at 10/1, don’t you have to like AFLEET AGAIN at double those odds? The son of Afleet Alex has been working well for this effort, and if he and jockey Kendrick Carmouche can get some mojo working this weekend, they just might have a shot at the winner’s circle.
Then of course there’s my old pal Rick Dutrow and his entry, YAWANNA TWIST. The son of Yonaguska has won back to back races to start his career sprinting at Aqueduct. You know better than to discount a Dutrow horse running in New York…don’t you?
Selections:
#6 Peppi Knows (10/1)
# 9 Afleet Again (20/1)
# 1 Three Day Rush (4/1)
I’ll add in YAWANNA TWIST and AWESOME ACT to the exotic plays. Ditto for TURF MELODY since he is a Graham Motion horse (I always play Graham’s horses – just a personal preference since he’s my favorite horsemen).
The Sham (Grade 3) – Santa Anita- 1 1/8 miles (5:12 ET)
Marcello
The Program
Outlaw Man
El Mirage King
Boulder Creek
Kettle River
Setsuko
Wolf Tail
Nextdoorneighbor
Alphie’s Bet
Note: Odds were not yet available as of this writing, but will be updated once they are set.
Remember all that talk of Spring being upon us at the top of this post? Well, the beautiful weather that typically personifies Southern California this time of year might be only a figment of our imaginations this weekend, with heavy rains anticipated and a possible second rescheduling of Saturday’s Sham Stakes. For now, we’ll proceed along the path of “ignorance being bliss” as those of us about to break the 50 degree threshold on the thermometer for the first time this decade gallivant around unaware (blissfully, again) of the fact our friends on the opposite coast may be being dumped on this weekend.
The Sham looks like a relatively evenly matched race on paper, but the two horses most will be anxious to see are KETTLE RIVER and THE PROGRAM. That being said, I think there are some interesting “shots” worth taking a look at here, including SETSUKO and OUTLAW MAN.
We’ll start with the obvious. KETTLE RIVER comes out of back to back victories over maidens and allowance foes. The son of Congaree gives trainer Eoin Harty (of Colonel John fame) a runner that at least some folks I know are buzzing about as a possible Derby horse. We’ll see if he’s got what it takes this weekend in his first graded stakes try. Like so many of his generation, he’s lightly raced and still have plenty of room for improvement. His recent workouts might not be off-the-charts, but if you go back to January 25th at Hollywood, he seems to have shown a little “something, something.” I respect this guys chances in here enough to make him my top overall pick.
THE PROGRAM is more front running son of Harlan’s Holiday heading out for the always dangerous Bob Baffert barn. If they let him get loose on the lead he could give them fits, but it’s worth noting he was no match for KETTLE RIVER following a wide trip two races back. More forgiving handicappers will point to the 4th place finish behind Lookin at Lucky (beaten 1 1/2 lengths) last December. He’s a player in this race for sure, but seems to me the type that needs to have a few breaks go his way (such as the head bob at the wire in his victory last out over Indian Firewater), and that might be playing with fire this time around.
If you’re looking for a price on the board, what about OUTLAW MAN? Bettors tend to shy away from horses who take 4 tries to break their maiden and then jump up into the stakes level, but you know that with jockey Garett Gomez aboard, this son of Forest Wildcat will be taking at least some play at the windows. I like that he’s improving, and that his recent workouts look very impressive (4 furlongs in :46 and change on 3/1, for example). Also note who he faced in his debut; Winslow Homer. Remember that guy? Had he not been hurt, he might be a top contender for the Derby at this point in time. Suffice to say there are reasons to expect a game performance from this colt. I don’t think he’s outmatched at all against this field.
SETSUKO is a horse I admittedly knew nothing about until some folks at TVG (namely Matt Carothers) and at the DRF (Brad Free) started talking about him over a month ago. He seems like a hard trying son of Pleasantly Perfect that, for whatever reason, just hasn’t been able to put it all together and turn in consistent winning races. He is “right there” though in all of his tries (hence the “hard trying” reference). I’m not sure why the horse is named Setsuko, as that is a name typically reserved for females in Japanese, but this colt does have two manly positives working in his favor; jockey Rafael Bejarano and trainer Richard Mandella. Consider him an underneath play on your exotics.
NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR could also be a sneaky play in here. The son of Lido Palace picks up the services of Mike Smith in the irons, thanks at least in part to Bejarano being aboard SETSUKO. He’s been training his tail off and trainer Mike Machowsky is hitting at a whopping 38% for the year with a limited sample of runners. Don’t leave this guy off your tickets would be my advice.
Selections:
#6 Kettle River
#2 The Program
#3 Outlaw Man
I’ll also be adding in SETSUKO and NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR underneath to my exotic plays.
Well, that’ll just about do it for our weekend Derby prep races. Best of luck to all – and be sure to let us know your thoughts on the weekend racing action.
By the time you read this, yours truly will be proverbially buried in what could wind up being between 2 to 3 feet of snow! Yes, the storm we’ve dubbed “Snowmageddon” is absolutely hammering the mid-atlantic, and living on the Maryland/Pennsylvania line, we seem to be right smack dab in the cross-hairs. What better to do at a time like this than sit back and fire up the ole betting account and take part in the action at some locations enjoying just a bit more friendly weather? This Saturday affords us several chances for major stakes action across the country. We’ll be focusing on the Grade 1 Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park and the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita in this post.
Grade 1 Donn Handicap – Gulfstream Park (Race 10) – 5:31 ET
The 52nd running of the $500k Donn will be contested by 10 horses going 1 1/8 miles over the main track at Gulfstream Park. QUALITY ROAD is the horse everyone will be watching here. The son of Elusive Quality was a trendy pick for the 2009 Kentucky Derby before being sideline by injury (truth be told, he was my top choice…before that honor went to I Want Revenge…before being forced to switch yet again, ultimately winding up with Friesan Fire. I think we all know how that ended). Many will recall his infamous gate antics moments before the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita that caused Zenyatta and others to have to wait what seemed an eternity before he was ultimately scratched. The colt rebounded from that non-performance by winning the Grade 3 Hal’s Hope here at Gulfstream last out on January 3. If you’re looking for a big score here, you’ll need to beat him to cash – which may be a tall order.
The interesting thing about this race presents itself when trying to determine who is likely to finish underneath the favorite. I like the looks of KISS THE KID here quite a bit at 6/1. I’m usually fond of the Lemon Drops, although it must be noted this one was defeated by DUKE OF MISCHIEF last out by a neck. PAST THE POINT could also be interesting depending on what happens up front early on. DELIGHTFUL KISS should be flying late as the field heads for the wire, and I’m expecting him to rally for a share of the money.
The Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis - Santa Anita (Race 8 ) – 4:07 PT
The 72nd running of the Robert B. Lewis is being billed as a two horse race between offspring of one of my all-time favorite horses and sires; Tiznow. AMERICAN LION roars into town as a Kentucky Derby hopeful searching for graded stakes earnings. He’s got a favorable post position towards the outside in this rather light six horse field. His maiden victory at Keeneland generated quite a bit of buzz, and hopefully we’ll be able to answer some questions about how serious of a horse he’ll be today stretching out to 8.5 furlongs.TIZ CHROME is the “other Tiznow” in the field that everyone is buzzing about. Trainer Bob Baffert has seen his colt thrash the 17 horses he’s faced in two lifetime starts, including a blitz of the Stuka (get it?) last out at Hollywood. The question between these two is obviously who will get the best of the added distance. Considering each colt has shown they don’t need the lead early on to score, we appear to be setup for a promising stretch duel here. Whoever gets first jump just might pull away with the race.
Underneath, I thought CARACORTADO looked playable, largely because of his 4 for 4 record (albeit against lesser competition). I could also make a case for the aptly named DOMONATION for trainer John Sadler with jockey smokin’ Joe Talamo aboard. Either way, it doesn’t look like this will be a bank breaking race, unless something unexpected materializes.
Of course, there’s one other big event coming up this weekend that we’ll be squeezing in time for in between epic snow shoveling sagas: The Super Bowl. I’m taking the Colts over the Saints in a close one.
As for the other news that the horse racing news coming out of Oaklawn Park, I’ll simply say I’m reserving serious thought about the potential of a showdown between Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra until something becomes official. I just don’t have a good feeling it’s going to happen in the Apple Blossom. We’ll see though – it certainly would be an exciting start to the racing season for 2010.
Last weekend we were treated to one of our first real tastes of the 2009 Triple Crown season with the Holy Bulland the Lecomte. Additionally, my good friend Val from Foolish Pleasure has also sharedthis video showcasing another Curlin filly by the mare Collect Call (and doesn’t she look awfully familiar?). Obviously, the year and the deep winter many find themselves in are starting to show their first hints of thawing out on us and warming things up….and it’s about darn time, isn’t it?
This weekend the focus in racing shifts back to runners we may have more familiarity with in the annual Sunshine Millions event held for California and Florida bred horses at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. Six races, two tracks, and numerous directions for horseplayers to consider present themselves. Here’s my quick picks for the races on Saturday, in order of the tentative post times.
The $200k Sunshine Millions Sprint (GP – R8- 4:33 ET)
We kick things off with the 8th running of the Sunshine Millions Sprint at Gulfstream Park. A relatively small field of 7 horses is all there is to choose from. Personally I think this one comes down to two of them; THIS ONE’S FOR PHIL was one of trainer Rick Dutrow’s speed freaks last spring. The horse went to the Dave Houghton barn following a 5th place finish in the Grade 2 Woody Stephens last June at Belmont. Houghton got the gelding back on track with a 3 length victory over lesser foes last out at Laurel. I feel he may be in for a tough match today with the imposing PASHITO THE CHE, a son of Flatter (A.P. Indy) for the Scott Lake barn who has won 3 of his last 4 starts, all with impressive Beyer figures. Looks pretty simple to me.
Selections:
#4 Paschito the Che (8/5*)
#6 This Ones for Phil (9/5)
#3 Accredit (6/1)
The $300k Sunshine Millions Distaff (GP – R9 – 5:08 ET)
The second race in the Sunshine Millions is the Distaff, for fillies and mares going 1 1/8 miles over the main track at Gulfstream Park. Things seem to get a bit more interesting here with a field of 9 horses, several of which would seem to have chances. Like the sprint, I have a feeling this one may boil down to a two horse race between SWEET REPENT and JESSICA IS BACK, neither of whom will over a lot of bang for the buck. If you’re looking for more value, you might want to focus on the chances of EVEN ROAD (20/1) and SCOLARA (12/1), with EVEN ROAD probably having the better shot between the two thanks in part to a solid two-for-three record at the track. That being said, her past performances suggest she may be a better play underneath in the exotics. SCOLARA would need some pace help in all likelihood due to her late running style. Ultimately, I think you’ve got to make SWEET REPENT the top choice here, considering how the daughter of Repent handled JESSICA IS BACK at Churchill Downs going a mile and a sixteenth back in November. I’ll guess that she gets a solid trip here and winds up in the winner’s circle.
Selections:
#4 Sweet Repent (2/1)
#7 Jessica Is Back (9/5*)
#6 Even Road (20/1)
The $200k Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Sprint (SA – R6 – 2:36 PT)
We head out west to beautiful Santa Anita for the first time this afternoon for the Filly and Mare Sprint. This might be one of the more interesting betting races of the entire series, due to the rather large field size (13 horses) and the lack of an obvious standout. The race within the race that looks most intriguing on paper concerns two of the top contenders; MISS MCCALL and LIBOR LADY. MISS MCCALL returns to the Santa Anita Pro Ride after a romp over the dirt at Turfway Park last December. She’s been on the shelf since then, but is lightly raced and obviously has room to continue to improve. LIBOR LADY picks up the services of Gomez, and you know she’ll be running hard every step of the way. It’ll be interesting to see if these two bang heads early on for the lead and wind up cooking each other, or if one settles into second. Especially considering other speed types like HIGH RESOLVE are here. If they do bang heads, then watch out for DUBAI MAJESTY coming from just off the pace, along with either QUISISANA or perhaps even DOTSY JEAN. Ultimately, I’m going to take a risk here and go with DUBAI MAJESTY, even though she’s 0 for 2 over the synthetics. I just have a feeling she could wind up the beneficiary of a great trip behind the speed. It’s also worth noting that she handled LIBOR LADY, albeit over the turf, last October at Keeneland. True, she’s a tepid favorite on the morning line at 4/1, but I have a hunch MISS MCCALL will go off as the post time favorite.
Selections:
#10 Dubai Majesty(4/1*)
#3 Miss McCall (9/2)
#7 Libor Lady (6/1)
The $300k Sunshine Millions Turf (GP – R10 – 5:43 ET)
We head back east for the final leg of the Sunshine Millions from Gulfstream Park in Florida. JET PROPULSION could be setup perfectly to run away with this one if he can get loose on the lead. If you’re a speed player, this is probably where you’ll wind up. The one warning sign to consider though is the 0 for 3 mark over the track – but it’s not like horses don’t take advantage of ideal setups all the time to overcome such concerns, so take that with a grain of salt. The favorite is SOLDIER’S DANCER, who will be running hard late no matter what happens in front of him. It’s hard to ignore that 7 for 14 record at the 9 furlong distance as this race is clearly within his reach. I also thought BAD ACTION, WICKED STYLE, and DUKE OF MISCHIEF were somewhat interesting in here, especially as potential plays underneath in the exotics. Don’t overlook PICKAPOCKET either, as while it would be a surprise to find him in the winner’s circle, he’s run well against SOLDIER’S DANCER in the past. I’ll be betting that SOLDIER’S DANCER runs down JET PROPULSION at the wire, but I won’t be surprised in the slightest if the speed hangs on to beat me or one of these other contenders leaps up and grabs victory from the jaws of defeat (and if you twisted my arm and made me guess who would beat me…I’d say BAD ACTION). This could be a deceptively tricky race.
Selections:
#8 Soldier’s Dancer (8/5*)
#11 Jet Propulsion (4/1)
#3 Duke of Mischief (8/1)
The $300k Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf (SA – R7 – 3:07 PT)
I’ll start with a disclaimer here, as while she doesn’t show up in my top picks, I’ll obviously be rooting for my main man Graham Motion and his entry SAUCEY EVENING in the Filly & Mare Turf. Yes, she’d need her absolute best and then some to likely win, but if there’s one guy in all of racing who deserves to win every race he’s involved in, it’s Motion. Looking over the rest of the field with my homerism out of the way, I actually like (surprise, surprise) another tepid post time favorite here in TIGHT PRECISION. I like that she’s won on the grass at Churchill and Gulfstream, which suggests she’s got some versatility, however in all honesty I would feel a lot more comfortable with that selection if there were a race over the Santa Anita grass to evaluate. Oh well. To be totally transparent, I actually like both of trainer Thomas Proctor’s entries in here, with the other being CLOSEOUT. TIGHT PRECISION will obviously be more forwardly placed, with the aptly named CLOSEOUT looking to, well, close things out, I suppose. Not that I’d call CLOSEOUT a true closer – but she will be coming from further off the pace in all likelihood. CENTURY PARK would make quite a bit of sense here if she can get out and control the pace, although it would seem BOOTLEG ANNIE will give her a battle up front for that right. Ultimately, you know where I’m going here – I’m loyal to a fault, which means I’ll be supporting SAUCEY EVENING with my voice and my wallet, even if others make more sense. Go get ‘em, Saucey!
Selections:
#6 Saucey Evening (5/1)
#2 Tight Precision (7/2*)
#1 Closeout (4/1)
The $500k Sunshine Millions Classic (SA – R8 – 3:38 PT)
We wind things up with the 8th running of the Classic. Honestly, who doesn’t love a “classic” (even if this one is not a 10 furlong “classic”)? I’m a little perplexed as to how morning line favoritism of 5/2 could’ve been bestowed upon THE USUAL Q.T. in this race? Certainly she’s got a chance, but are you really going to take those odds on a horse that is winless over the synthetics? In her defense, she has placed in each of her 2 starts over the Santa Anita Pro Ride, and we all know Unusual Heat is one of the more prolific synthetic sires out there, but that just seems like a pretty big leap of faith to me (even on what I’ve referred to as the “turf impersonating Pro Ride” in years past). Especially in the biggest race of the day. I’m going to lean elsewhere to the improving and lightly raced COMPARI for trainer Martin Jones. I love what I see in this horse’s running lines. yes, he likes to be on the lead, but look a the hidden diversification in his efforts: turf, synthetics, sprinting, routing – he’s done it all in his short career, and hopefully on Saturday he can add a Sunshine Millions Classic victory to those accomplishments. What’s not to like? Four straight victories? Gomez getting the call? My only concern is that he might be a slightly better turf horse, but that certainly isn’t a reason to expect any regression over the Pro Ride. Some other horses in here that I find a bit intriguing include JERANIMO and BOLD CHIEFTAIN. JERANIMO hasn’t really “classed up” the way I’d like to see, having been throttled by the talented M One Rifle last out, but could benefit from the stretch out having sprinted rather exclusively since last Spring. BOLD CHIEFTAIN is a definite contender in here, and you might want to think about WICKED STYLE as a possible player as well. Looks like a solid betting race.
Selections:
#8 Compari (3/1)
#7 The Usual Q. T. (5/2*)
#9 Bold Chieftain (6/1)
Best of luck to all! And of course, as always, let me know who your picks are.
Finally – it’s Classic time. The “race of the year” (although not necessarily for Horse of the Year, as evidenced by recent history) for an overall purse of $5 million. Obviously the story of the race is the entry of the undefeated mare Zenyatta – one of the sports biggest stars in North America and a hometown hero that the masses will turn out to support in droves for her first try against the boys.
Last year we had another equally beloved North American horse coming in as the heavy favorite. Of course I’m talking here of my beloved Curlin. Despite a bold move as the field neared the top of the stretchthat at first glance appeared to be trademarked, patented Curlin - he ultimately floundered through the final furlong and wound up finishing 4th, passed by two horses that had shipped in from Europe in both Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator.
Will things be different this year? It was supposed to be the “year of the filly” – but the Fighting Phils blew the World Series to the N.Y. Yankees last night. Still, might that be a favorable omen for Zenyatta? Think about it – if her biggest threats are coming from across the pond once again, then is it a good sign that the “Yankees” won? We horseplayers are nothing if not superstitious, so it’s something to think about.
Speaking of which – I’d encourage ALL horseplayers to go to ourTBA homepage right now and play along with our “BC Picks” feature. Basically it’s just a google doc spreadsheet. Contact Handrideif you have any questions about how to enter your picks. I see at least one regular reader (Mark Ripple) is already there – hopefully we’ll see more of you shortly.
Since this post will also be featured until I return from the Breeders’ Cup Sunday evening, I’d also like to point out that I’ve updated the page entitled “2009 Breeders’ Cup” so that you can easily navigate to the selections/analysis for each of the BC races this weekend. Basically it’s the old “2009 Triple Crown” page that used to be in the same spot – only that information has been moved down a few notches. Just trying to keep things as easy as can be for the readers here.
Getting back to the Classic, the field sets up like this:
Mine That Bird (12/1)
Colonel John (12/1)
Summer Bird (9/2)
Zenyatta (5/2*)
Twice Over (20/1)
Richard’s Kid (12/1)
Gio Ponti (12/1)
Einstein (12/1)
Girolamo (20/1)
Rip Van Winkle (7/2)
Regal Ransom (20/1)
Quality Road (12/1)
Awesome Gem (30/1)
“Slow Cheetah come, it’s so euphoric. Looks like it’s on today…” (“Slow Cheetah” being my pet name for Zenyatta)
MINE THAT BIRD – the 3-year-old “little gelding who could” that shocked the world with his stunning 50/1 upset in the Kentucky Derbyback in May. Sadly, that was the last time he found the winner’s circle, although he did come charging well late against Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness. He just hasn’t seemed the same horse since then, and his relatively uninspiring effort over the Santa Anita Pro Ride in the Goodwood (Grade 1) last month does not leave me thinking he’s got much of a chance here. He’s shocked us before – so keep that in mind before you toss him out, but as much as I like this gelding and his trainer, Chip Woolley Jr., I’m just not seeing it.
COLONEL JOHN was my original selection for the 2008 Kentucky Derby. Since then I’ve had a bit of a tough love relationship with him. He’s a Tiznow colt, and I’m nothing if not a Tiznow fan, so he’ll always hold a special place in my heart. It just seems like whenever I expect big things from him, he struggles, and whenever I dismiss his chances, he runs huge. He’s capable of running big here, but I’m going to consider others as more solid selections for win honors. If my Colonel John conundrum continues, that might suggest he’s primed for his best performance. For now, I’ll say he’s a contender and leave it at that.
SUMMER BIRD might be the forgotten colt of the entire field. This is likely due to his lack of previous racing experience over the synthetic surfaces. The son of Birdstone did train over the Santa Anita Pro Ride before joining the barn of Trainer Tim Ice – a man who was beyond awesome to my entire family on Haskell day at Monmouth Park. Since we got to meet Summer Bird that day, and since he was my wife’s Belmont pick, you best believe he’ll be on all my tickets. Am I worried about the synthetics? Nope, not at all – and my gut tells me this guy is one of the better North American horses in racing. Case in point – immediately following the Haskell, our conversations with Ice revealed that he didn’t want to run into Rachel Alexandra ever again, but he’s confident enough again in his colt following his victories in the Travers and the Jockey Club Gold Cup that he now publicly states he wants another shot at her. Not many folks would say such a thing – and Tim is a consummate gentlemen, so don’t mistake that for false bravado. He’s sincere in everything he says, which tells me this colt is poised. Big factor – and expect to see those odd s of 9/2 improve dramatically once the betting windows open up.
ZENYATTA - what’s left to say about my beloved “Slow Cheetah?” The 50-foot woman…the undefeated super star who has been the poster girl for California racing for 2 seasons now. This is her biggest moment, and while she’s facing boys for the first time and taking on a new distance as well, she’s simply one of the classiest animals I’ve had the pleasure of seeing. If this is indeed her swan song (which recent discussions suggest it will not be), then it shall be with a watery eye that I bid her farewell. My love affair with Zenyatta began the evening she broke her maiden in her debut in late 2007. I had just decided to start posting picks online and experimenting with these peculiarities called “blogs.” The rest, quite literally, is history. I’m expecting her finest hour – and that’s exactly what it will likely take to prevail. If this plays out the way she usually does things, expect a heart-stopping photo finish type of cliffhanger ending at the wire. You KNOW she’ll be flying late.
TWICE OVER is the sneakiest of the European invaders by virtue of being 20/1 on the morning line. I’ll say this, given the fact that European shippers ran 1, 2 in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic, wouldn’t it make sense to at least take a flyer on a RIP VAN WINKLE/TWICE OVER exacta here? We are, after all, talking about a horse that has won 3 straight overseas, including besting the filly Sariska in the Champion Stakes (Group 1). He didn’t appear to run his best race when he tangled with RIP VAN WINKLE in the Eclipse Stakes back in July, but his running line denotes that he was “bumped’ in that race. Further, he simply might be a better horse now than he was back then. Very interesting and quite usable colt given the 20/1 value on the morning line.
RICHARD’S KID was the upset special for trainer Bob Baffert in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic in early September. The son of Lemon Drop Kid shocked us all by beating EINSTEIN at 24/1, and then returned to run 3rd beaten only a length to COLONEL JOHN and Gitano Hernando. In other words, he doesn’t appear to be a fluke, so you might want to keep him around on your tickets.
GIO PONTI is probably the best North American turf horse at the moment. So what’s he doing here rather than racing in the BC Turf? I’m not entirely certain, although it would appear he does seem to favor the 10 furlong distance. The son of Tale of the Cat did win here in the Sir Beaufort over the Pro Ride when that race came off the turf last December. If you’re a believer that turf form translates well to the Pro Ride, then you shouldn’t have any doubts about his chances. He has to be considered a player in here with a chance.
EINSTEIN is the hard trying son of Spend a Buck that has earned fans from all over the nation the past 3 years. I’ll always remember the first time I saw him live on Preakness Day in 2007, when a spill caused him to toss jockey Robby Albarado just 2 races before Curlin’s date with destiny in the Preakness. Ultimately we lost the colt Mending Fences that day, but since then Einstein has gone on to become one of the most versatile horses in all of racing. His motto, if he could speak, would surely be something along the lines of “any surface, any track, any time.” A rare Grade 1 winner on dirt, turf, and synthetics. He’s run into some hard luck and close finishes this year, so it would be nice to see him fight his way back into the winner’s circle. Ultimately I like him better as an underneath play here.
GIROLAMO is the most lightly raced of the contenders, and a 3-year-old son of A. P. Indy. He’s never been two turns before, but his pedigree suggests he’ll handle it. For me the tougher question is figuring out where he might fit into the equation pace wise. I’m guessing he’ll be right up there trying to go with Regal Ransom. He’s definitely a nice colt that is on the improve and eligible to continue to move forwad, but he’ll be on a new surface, going two turns for the first time, and facing a level of competition he’s never seen before. That might be asking just a tad too much here.
RIP VAN WINKLE is the main threat to ZENYATTA’s quest for glory here in the Classic. The son of Galileo has been very sharp lately, taking both the Sussex Stakes and the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1 races both) in his last two efforts. Prior to that he was only 1 length behind Sea the Stars in the Eclipse Stakes (and, notably, 4 1/2 lengths in front of Conduit – whom I just made top selection in the BC Turf….hmmmmm). In fact, he lost 3 straight to Sea the Stars, but never finished worse than 4th and was never further than 2 1/2 lengths from the colt considered by many to be among the best they have ever seen in Europe. Trainer Aidan O’Brien and jockey Johnny Murtagh will team up once again here and look to steal the victory from the hometown hero. The obvious question will be how he handles the synthetics, and as always one must take a bit of a leap of faith in backing a runner like this, but he does look tough to deal with here. In fact, he looks tougher than anything ZENYATTA has ever seen. As much as it pains me to do it, he’s going to be the top pick. Don’t “sleep” on this guy (lame, I know, but I couldn’t resist).
REGAL RANSOM is a horse I was admittedly quite enamored with during the Triple Crown season earlier this year. Things didn’t quite work out for him, as he finished 8th over the Churchill slop on Derby day, but he did return to wire the field in the Super Derby last out (Grade 2). He seems to be a legit pace factor here, and that could have him in a favorable position if he were to get loose on the lead. Of course, as mentioned earlier, GIRALOMO appears to want to have something to say about that, and so might QUALITY ROAD, so it’s not enough to make me think upset here. Word is that he has been working extremely well here, so definitely think about using him underneath on the exotics.
QUALITY ROAD was once my top Derby selection for 2009. This means that my top Derby picks for the last 2 years are now here in this race. The speedy son of Elusive Quality has been unable to catch SUMMER BIRD in his last two starts over wet surfaces in New York. I’d expect him to be on the muscle early on and looking to press REGAL RANSOM should that one try to waltz away with things untested early on. It’s hard for me to think he’ll win this, but he can still be a factor. One angle to keep in mind is that this is a colt who had some issues with his feet earlier in the year, and quite a few horses with similar problems have really taken to the softer synthetic surfaces.
AWESOME GEM was the third place finisher in the 2007 Classic behind Curlin and Hard Spun. Last year he finished 6th in the BC Mile. I’d give him a shot if we were on a true dirt surface and rain was in the forecast, but his 1 for 12 record on synthetics leaves me thinking he’s an outsider here.
How do I see this race playing out? I think REGAL RANSOM, QUALITY ROAD, and GIROLAMO will contest things early on . As the field nears the turn, ZENYATTA will start to uncoil and swing wide (like she always does) and start mowing down horses in front of her. RIP VAN WINKLE will be a bit more forwardly placed along with SUMMER BIRD, EINSTEIN, and TWICE OVER. This group will actually get frist run at the leading trio, with ZENYATTA, COLONEL JOHN, RICHARD’s KID, MINE THAT BIRD, and GIO PONTI further back.
I like RIP VAN WINKLE and ZENYATTA to rise to the top, due to their respective class, and leave us with a finish for th ages. I’m calling a photo finish that could go either way depending on the head bob. Two gutsy, world class competitors leaving it all on the line. No quarter shall be asked, and none shall be given. God bless ‘em, this ought to be a good one.
Selections:
#10 Rip Van Winkle (7/2)
#4 Zenyatta (5/2*)
#3 Summer Bird (9/2)
Best of luck to all! May this be a Breeders’ Cup to remember. Don’t forget that we’ve got all 13 of the previous Breeders’ Cup races for the weekend covered as well. For quick access, you can locate those posts here.
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