The 2009 running of the Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Turf has come up extremely intriguing this year, thanks to the presence of the lightning quick Presious Passion, the classy European filly Dar Re Mi, fellow invader Spanish Moon, and the presence of defending champion Conduit. A cool $3 million will be on the line as the horses go to post on Saturday for the 1 1/2 mile run over the Santa Anita turf.
The field sets up like this:
Telling (20/1)
Conduit (7/5*)
Red Rocks (20/1)
Allegre (50/1)
Dar Re Mi (3/1)
Presious Passion (4/1)
Spanish Moon (5/2)
Monzante (30/1)
TELLING is a son of A.P. Indy who took many horseplayers by surprise when he suddenly broke out as a Grade 1 winner in the Sword Dancer at Saratoga this summer. Prior to that race, the 5-year-old had struggled to find the winner’s circle for quite some time. He wasn’t able to repeat that effort when he returned in the Grade 1 Turf Classic Invitational at Belmont last month, and has now drawn the dreaded rail post position. This will be the toughest competition he’s ever seen, so he’ll need his absolute best to contest for win honors.
CONDUIT is the defending champion from last year’s BC Turf. A year ago he was coming into this race off of consecutive victories at the Group 3 and Group 1 levels, respectively. This year he’s got a Group 1 victory in the King George, and a very respectable 4th place finish to Sea the Stars in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe behind him as attempts to defend his crown. If the Conduit we’ve come to know and love shows up, the others could be running for place and show. In particular, the presence of Presious Passion in this field ensures he’ll have a target to run at. Now the question will be whether he can run that target down. With 12 furlongs to work with, he’ll have plenty of time to do so (although to be honest, the longer the race the slower the anticipated pace usually is).
RED ROCKS will forever be the “horse that spoiled my trip to see Curlin in the Man O’ War back in 2008. I’m not sure I’ll ever be able to forgive him for that day. Here’s a guy who is a previous Breeders’ Cup Turf winner, something you certainly have to respect. I’m just not sure he’s capable anymore now at 6-years-old as things seem to have turned slightly southward this year.
ALLEGRE is the longsthot of the field at 50/1, and a 4-year-old son of Orientate that would need to both move forward significantly and run his absolute best to factor here, although trainer Brian Koriner is usually good with turfers.
DAR RE MI is the European shipper I’m most fond of here. The daughter of Singspiel was 2nd to Zarkava (2008 Arc de Triomphe champion) in the Group 1 Prix Vermeile last year and ran a respectable 5th (beaten by 3 1/4 lengths) to Sea the Stars in the 2009 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – the richest turf race in the world. In between she’s bested a filly that I’m extremely fond of named Sariska, as well as the talented Stacelita (although she was ultimately disqualified and placed 5th). A major player in here for sure who could keep the filly and mare mojo flowing on Saturday with a brilliant performance.
PRESIOUS PASSION is the lightning in a bottle speed of the speed in here. Remember that effort of his in the United Nations when he was 20 lengths clear of the field the first time around the track? I don’t think he’ll go that crazy, but he will be looking to open things up quite comfortably in the early going in an attempt to build an insurmountable lead and then hang on for dear life as DAR RE MI, CONDUIT, and SPANISH MOON come charging. Always dangerous if loose on the lead.
SPANISH MOON is a very intriguing European shipper that has run 6 straight solid races – with 4 of them being victories – most notably the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. Coming off back to back wins (including a defeat of Youmzain, the runner-up finisher in the 2009 Arc de Triomphe) signals that this son of El Prado is ready to run a big one in his first visit to the U.S. Respect his chances.
MONZANTE rounds out the field for trainer Mike Mitchell, who will return the son of Maria’s Mon to the guiding hands of jockey Rafael Bejarano. The pair teamed up for two of this horse’s better performances last year at Del Mar, and will look to recapture some of that previous magic. Finished 7th, though only beaten by a collective 4 lengths to Colonel John and Gitano Hernando in the Goodwood last out. Rates as an outside possiblity on his top stuff.
Overall I think CONDUIT is still the guy you’ve got to get passed here, and I’ll give the defending champ the nod. You won’t hear any argument from me though to those who side with DAR RE MI, PRESIOUS PASSION, or SPANISH MOON as all 3 seem quite capable of winning. In my mind, PRESIOUS PASSION leads the field into the stretch, when these 3 come charging home. I like CONDUIT getting home on top by a very slim margin, with PRESIOUS PASSION holding on to finish 2nd or 3rd, and either DAR RE MI or SPANISH MOON taking the other slice.
The Grade 1 Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Sprint has drawn a field of 9 to contest the 6 furlong sprint over the Pro Ride at Santa Anita. An overall purse of $2 million will be on the line as California “zensation” Zensational as the morning line favorite will face off against Irish bred invader Fleeting Spirit as well as North American contenders like Fatal Bullet and Capt. Candyman Can.
The field sets up like this:
Zensational (6/5*)
Cost of Freedom (20/1)
Fatal Bullet (9/2)
Crown of Thorns (12/1)
Gayego (5/2)
Dancing in Silks (12/1)
Join in the Dance (30/1)
Capt. Candyman Can (15/1)
Fleeting Spirit (8/1)
“Who can take the sprint race….come from off the pace?” The Candyman can (perhaps)
ZENSATIONAL looms the favorite, and the 2nd most popular one whose name begins with the letter “z” on the day. The son of Unbridled’s Song has rattled off 4 straight victories, as well as 5 of his last 6by steam rolling the local competition. Quick out of the gate, he tends to either wire the field or press from 2nd position early on. He’ll be fresh for this race, having not run since his victory in the Grade 1 Pat O’Brien in early September. Like many a Bob Baffert trainee, his workout tab is filled with bullet drills. Catch him to score.
COST OF FREEDOM is a 6-year-old son of Cee’s Tizzy that has only raced twice thus far in 2009. The 2008 victor of the Grade 1 Ancient Title tried to repeat that performance last out in defense of his crown and came up short behind both GAYEGO and CROWN OF THORNS. He could add some pace pressure to ZENSATIONAL, but probably wants to take back about a length or two behind him in the early going. A 3 for 4 record at Santa Anita and a 5 for 7 record at the distance suggest he is not to be dismissed at 20/1 odds.
FATAL BULLET is a dangerous looking son of Red Bullet coming off a Grade 3 victory in the Phoenix for trainer Reade Baker. FATAL BULLET managed to finish 2nd in this race last year behind Midnight Lute, and a similar performance makes him a legit player here. He’s another that tens to be forwardly placed throughout the race, and although two of his recent victories were in wire-to-wire fashion, he doesn’t need the lead to win. Contender.
CROWN OF THORNS is a very lightly raced 4-year-old son of Repent that sill has room to move forward. He was a fast rising star for trainer Richard Mandella in early 2008 before suffering an injury that had him on the shelf for over a year. He’s returned this fall to run two very good races – even if they didn’t translate to victories. Eligible for improvement in this his 3rd start of 2009, so don’t sell him too short.
GAYEGO – where do I begin with this guy? Would you believe that in April of 2008 I had a dream that he would go on to win the Derby? Yeah…shows how much stock I should probably put into such dreams. Not only did he not win, he ran the two worst races of his life in the ’08 Derby and Preakness races. Since then he’s been on the redemption trail, having won 4 of his last 5 starts. Godolphin Stables seems to have found a way to bring this guy back to life. He can be a pace factor, as evidence by his run in the Preakness, but is probably a better horse now that he’s learned to rate effectively. In seven lifetime races over synthetic surfaces, he’s been in the exacta six times.
DANCING IN SILKS is a 4-year-old son of Black Minnaloushe that is coming off his career best performance against Cal-breds in the Cal Cup Sprint Handicap on October 3rd, a victory that marked his 3rd in a row. He’ll need to prove he can “class up” with the rest of the field to prevail here, although he certainly seems capable on his best stuff. Trainer Carla Gaines is hitting at 34% with last out winners.
JOIN IN THE DANCE actually was the early pace in this year’s Kentucky Derby – a fact that many forget in light of the shocking upset pulled off by Mine That Bird that day. The son of Sky Mesa would appear to be the longshot of the field for trainer Todd Pletcher, although he should enjoy the cut back in distance from the route races he’s been running in. Another runner capable of adding to the pace equation, if nothing else.
CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN has developed nicely into a very good sprinter in his 2009 campaign. He’s got the kind of off-the-pace running style that could set up nicely here in the BC Sprint, and 15/1 is certainly enough value to warrant giving him some consideration. He’s a Candy Ride, so he should do fine over the Pro Ride, but folks probably won’t be questioning that much given his game 2nd place finish at Keeneland last out. I think the Capt. has a shot in here.
FLEETING SPIRIT will attract some curiosity and attention by virtue of being the only Euro of the field, as well as the only filly. The daughter of Invincible Spirit is a Group 1 winner, having taken the July Cup at Newmarket (GB) in July. Her running lines suggest she sometimes encounters trouble at the start, but you know what – that could actually help here considering the fact that we have a contentious pace possibility in this race. My notes show that Dettori will be aboard this miss in her attempt to add yet another feather in the hat of the “year of the filly.” Respect her chances.
Tough race to crack. Things would obviously be much simpler if ZENSATIONAL could be expected to get an easy lead and make the rest academic, but I don’t think that’s the case. Considering he’ll be hammered at the windows and is already 6/5 on the morning line, I’m thinking he’s a favorite you can try to play against here. The three horses that stick out to me with the best shots would be FATAL BULLET, FLEETING SPIRIT, and CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN, so if you’re fond of one of those runners, go ahead and take a shot. This being the year of the filly and all, I’m going to take a bit of a stab with FLEETING SPIRIT at 8/1 and hope for the best.
Eleven contenders are set to line up for a surprisingly deep field in the Grade 1 TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile on Saturday at Santa Anita. The field includes last year’s champion filly Goldikova, who will be taking on the boys again in her quest for repeat glory.
The field sets up as follows:
Court Vision (12/1)
Whatsthescript (15/1)
Cowboy Cal (6/1)
Delegator (3/1)
Karelian (20/1)
Courageous Cat (20/1)
Ferneley (20/1)
Zacinto (8/1)
Gladiatorus (20/1)
Justenuffhumor (10/1)
Goldikova (8/5*)
Can Goldikova match the legacy of Miesque and make it back-to-back victories over the boys in the TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile?
COURT VISION – his wins may be few and far between lately, but 12/1 feels like a steal on this guy. The son of Gulch was once a contender for the 2008 Kentucky Derby, but has become one of the better turf runners in the U.S. since that point in time. He’s had trouble facing off against Presious Passion, Gio Ponti, and Einstein this year, but will thankfully avoid all three in this race. On the other hand, he now runs into the likes of GOLDIKOVA and DELEGATOR. Rick Dutrow took over training COURT VISION and promptly helped him return to the winner’s circle last out in the Shadwell Turf Mile over soft footing at Keeneland. On his best stuff, he can certainly be a factor here, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Dutrow have him ready to run a big one. I like that he was a bit closer up in the Shadwell Turf Mile, as that may have helped him out over the late closing style that Dominguez and Mott employed in his previous 2009 starts. This is a solid horse, although contention runs deep in this race.
WHATSTHESCRIPT finished 3rd in this race last year behind GOLDIKOVA and KIP DEVILLE. To be honest, I liked his form coming into this event last year much better than what we’ve seen this year. You have to to back to the 2008 Del Mar mile to find his last victory, and while he can definitely threaten for a minor award, a win would seem to be just a bit of a stretch to predict here. This is clearly his best distance, and he has run well over the Santa Anita turf.
COWBOY CAL is admittedly one of my favorite horses in training. There’s just something about him that I love. The son of Giant’s Causeway will likely attempt to wire the field once again – something that’s been difficult to do at this level for him. In recent races, JUSTENUFFHUMOR has seemingly had his number, but he has finished ahead of COURT VISION and WHATSTHESCRIPT. Could this be the day he hangs on for victory? It’s interesting to note that GOLDIKOVA seemingly got torched a bit by a very fast pace in the Prix de la Foret last out at Longchamp. I don’t think COWBOY CAL will be going as fast here, but it shows that it’s not entirely impossible to envision him exiting victorious. He’ll be my rooting interest in this race. I haven’t definitively made up my mind yet how much I’ll support him with my wallet.
DELEGATOR is the first in a series of very live foreign invaders looking to take the TVG Mile. Yet again, we’re dealing with a Godolphin runner that has (who else?) Dettori aboard. The 3-year-old son of Dansili is a Group 2 winner at Goodwood, having prevailed in the Celebration Mile over today’s rival ZACINTO. The names of horses he’s faced in recent races reads like a who’s who in terms of 2009 Breeders’ Cup contenders from Europe, including Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman (not to mention Sea the Stars). A classy horse you’ve got to respect in this spot.
KARELIAN is one of the few horses in this field that I have trouble making a case for in terms of being a potential win candidate. He’s a fine gelding, for sure, and seems to be running better now in his old age (7-years-old) than he did earlier in his career. It’s just that he’ll be stepping up a bit in terms of class and would need the race of his life here to prevail. Just about any of these guys could hit the board somewhere, but I wouldn’t recommend him as a win play. Of course, if you do like him, then 20/1 is certainly worth a shot.
COURAGEOUS CAT – every time I type this horse’s name, I travel back to my childhood and the Saturday morning cartoon shorts of “Courageous Cat and Minute Mouse.” Almost nobody seems to remember that, but it seems this guy’s connections do. On paper the son of Storm Cat might not stand out, but keep in mind this is a relatively lightly raced 3-year-old who could be eligible to move forwarda bit. He’s got decent enough recent form, having won 3 of his last 4, but like others would probably need to run a career defining race here to prevail.
FERNELEY managed to defeat Allicansayis Wow and Lethal Heat two races back in the Del Mar Mile, and then finished a game 2nd to Ventura in the Woodbine Mile. That’s pretty good recent company to have kept. The 5-year-old son of Ishiguru has fired fresh before back in April at Golden Gate, and would need a similar effort to have a shot here. To that end, his workout tab is dotted with bullets lately. Seems like an outsider at first glance but could be primed for a solid performance.
ZACINTO is a horse who might get overlooked a bit at the windows. It’s hard to imagine that considering how the 3-year-old son of Dansili has classed up when facing Rip Van Winkle and DELEGATOR this year. The morning line odds of 8/1 seem like a gift given this guy’s capability. If you like DELEGATOR, don’t you have to like this guy as well? I just question why the other is 3/1 and this guy is 8/1? Seems a bit odd if you ask me, especially since ZACINTO was 3 1/4 lengths ahead of DELEGATOR at the wire in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) at Royal Ascot on September 25. A major player in this race.
GLADIATORUS exits a victory in the Group 1 Premio Vittorio di Capua in Italy – a race I could tell you next to nothing about. The son of Silic has faced off against GOLDIKOVA in the past, and did not turn in one of his more memorable performances (beaten by 20 1/2 lengths). On the plus side, he has won 8 of 13 lifetime starts going 8 furlongs, and when he does run “his race”, he seems quite capable. I just tend to prefer some of the other shippers a bit more. He tends to lead early, according to his running lines, which suggests he may be a pace factor along with COWBOY CAL and perhaps COURAGEOUS CAT and/or KARELIAN.
JUSTENUFFHUMOR did not fire over the soft footing at Keeneland in the Shadwell Turf Mile last out, but prior to that flop had been 6 for his previous 6. I think you draw a line through that last race and try to focus on his other races. The son of Distorted Humor should be closing into the pace as they near the stretch, and if he can return to the form he showed in the Bernard Baruch Handicap (Grade 2), he can definitely factor here. My main concern is that a mile just doesn’t seem on paper to be his best distance. We shall see.
GODIKOVA - what can you say about one of the ladies who helped make the 2008/2009 seasons such a story book time for fillies and mares? Far before the world went “Rachel crazy”, we had GOLDIKOVA defeating colts in the 2008 BC Mile. Some folks might be ready to jump ship given her recent unexpected defeat in the Prix de la Foret (Group 1) at Longchamp last out, but I’m going to be forgiving here and assume that Goldi is still the horse to beat in this race. She’s arguably the top miler in the world, and may have simply been too close to a hot pace last out in a race that she didn’t necessarily “need” to be ready here. Trainer Freedie Head knows a thing or two about fillies in this race, having rode Miesque to victories in the 1988 and 1989 runnings of the BC Mile. She’s still the horse to beat, although this year seems to set up a bit more difficult than the 2008 race did – even with the presence of Kip Deville last year.
I’ll use GOLDIKOVA as top selection here. ZACINTO and DELEGATOR would seem to be the top threats in my opinion, although I’m not going to count COWBOY CAL or COURT VISION out of this fight either. A resurgent JUSTENUFFHUMOR looking to make amends makes this race much more competitive than folks probably thought prior to glancing at the past performances. This seems like a great race to pick the horse(s) that you like the most and take a shot. It should be a good one.
These Breeders’ Cup races for 2-year-olds…they’re just so…oh, what’s the word I’m looking for? JUVENILE!
As we turn our attention to the Grade 1 Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the focus is on babies – babies who in just a few short months might be captivating the world in the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont. Of course, that’s seldom the case, apart from Street Sense back in 2007, but the possibility is still one that gives the race a sense of mystique that makes it worth watching, even if it doesn’t exactly feature the biggest household names of the sport. Give them time, and some of these guys are bound to leave their mark. If nothing else, the sky is the limit – as we’ve doubtless yet to see the best this group has to offer.
The field sets up as follows:
Alfred Nobel (20/1)
Piscitelli (50/1)
Beethoven (20/1)
Noble’s Promise (8/1)
D’Funnybone (5/2)
Pulsion (20/1)
Vale of York (20/1)
Eskendereya (10/1)
Aikenite (8/1)
Aspire (30/1)
Radiohead (15/1)
William’s Kitten (30/1)
Lookin At Lucky (8/5*)
Radiohead – what the hell is he doin’ here? He don’t belong here.
ALFRED NOBEL is the nobly named son of Danehill Dancer being sent to post for acclaimed trainer Aidan O’Brien. Jockey Johnny Murtagh will once again climb aboard and thus present us with the same connections that we saw aboard Mastercraftsman in the Dirt Mile, and will see again with Rip Van Winkle in the Classic. He won 3 in a row sprinting back ing Ireland earlier this year, with Murtagh aboard for each victory. The question would seem to be whether he’ll like the 8 1/2 furlong distance of the Juvenile? I’m admittedly not familiar with the 2-year-olds he’s faced across the pond, but it would seem this one has a chance at a square price.
PISCITELLI is a horse that I almost dismissed outright based on name alone. He happens to share names with a much maligned defensive back for the equally much maligned Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFL. Leaving that aside for a moment, he seems to be a gradually improving type, although he’s had trouble finding the winner’s circle since breaking his maiden. He does at least have some synthetic form to consider, although he was soundly beaten by a few of his rivals last out in the Breeders’ Futurity (Grade 1) last out. Must continue to improve to score here.
BEETHOVEN tossed me for a bit of a loop when I first saw his name, as we had a horse with the same name among the U.S. 3-year-old crop this year. Obviously this guy is different, and he could wind up being better. With Murtagh opting to ride ALFRED NOBEL, Moore will take the mount on this entry for Aidan O’Brien. He’s a Group 1 winner overseas, having taken the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket (GB) last out. Like most, must also answer the distance question to prevail.
NOBLE’S PROMISE is a very intriguing son of Cuvee for trainer Ken McPeek, the man who is famously credited with first spotting Curlin. A winner of 3 straight, he’s climbed steadily from the ranks of maidens to Grade 1 winners. An old rule of thumb I abide bye is that the best horses make that climb very quickly, and this guy couldn’t have done so any faster. Add to that his proven synthetic form and the juicy 8/1 morning line odds and I’m ready to make this guy my top pick. He should be close up in 2nd or 3rd early on and will look to get first jump on the leader(s).
D’FUNNYBONE is the “buzz” horse for trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. The son of D’Wildcat has won his last two efforts in Grade 2 races back in New York in highly impressive fashion. The trouble for me is that Dutrow isn’t exactly known for being a top synthetic trainer. If this race were on dirt, I’d have to support him, but having to answer the synthetic question and going the seemingly always unpopular dirt-to-synthetic angle (the red-headed step child of synthetic handicapping angles, for whatever reason) makes me just a tad gun-shy. Could well be the best horse in the field when all is said and done.
PULSION is an off the pace type who seems to be rounding into form nicely for trainer Patrick Biancone. It took him 3 tries to break his maiden, and he wound up 2nd in his first try against winners – but that was a Grade 1, so don’t think for a moment he can’t move forward again. Mike Smith stays aboard for Juvenile. Could be a sneaky play if he continues to progress.
VALE OF YORK is the Godolphin invader for trainer Saeed bin Suroor. Like ALFRED NOBEL, I know nothing about hat he’s faced, but this son of Invincible Spirit obviously has some talent under the hood as he’s been competing at the Group 1 and 2 levels lately. Possibility.
ESKENDEREYA ships in from New York for trainer Todd Pletcher. The son of Gian’ts Causeway romped to break his maiden at the stakes level in the Pilgrim ($152k) last month – a confident move from his connections considering he had lost in his maiden debut. He’s been training well enough at Belmont building up for this. Could be a surprise package if he takes to the Pro Ride. The trouble for me (and most bettors) is that there simply isn’t a whole lot to go on to suggest that he will beyond gut instinct. My gut tells me he handles the surface fine.
AKENITE is a very interesting runner, again for trainer Todd Pletcher. In fact, he appears to be Pletcher’s “A-horse” for this race, and will retain the services of jockey Alan Garcia – who was lights out this summer at Saratoga. There’s a lot to like about this son of Yes It’s True. He’s won on both dirt and synthetics (at Keeneland), which suggests he’ll transition to Santa Anita’s Pro Ride just fine. Further, he’s won at this distance. I think he’s a very legit player in this race and the 8/1 odds are extremely attractive.
ASPIRE – if ever there was a horse named for this blog to support, it’s this guy. The son of Tale of the Cat broke his maiden in his debut, and has since run 2nd in the Hopeful, and a close 3rd in the Champagne Stakes. Two very nice looking colts have beaten him in those last two efforts; Dublin and Homeboykris. Chalk this guy up as another contender in an extremely deep betting race.
RADIOHEAD - He’s so very special. He’s a creep. He’s a weirdo. What the hell is he doing here? He don’t belong here!(Run Away!!!). All kidding aside, this guy has the coolest name of the field. In case you’re wondering about those first few sentences, they are part of the 90′s classic anthem “Creep” by the band of the same name as this son of Johannesburg. Focusing on the horse for a moment, we’re looking at yet another apparently live European shipper that has been running competitively at the Group 1 and 2 levels overseas. He’ll have to overcome the post position and take to the Pro Ride, but he’s yet another possibility. As an added bonus, since like me you are no doubt handicapping the marathon that is the BC, enjoy the added music of “Creep” by Radiohead as a brief respite in honor of this, the most badassed named horse of the entire Breeders’ Cup. Take the break – you’ve earned it if you’ve read this far!
WILLIAM’S KITTEN is a longshot for trainer Michael Maker that appears outmatched on paper. That being said, Maker is quite the accomplished horsemen, so who am I to question this placement? Must step up big time to factor.
LOOKIN AT LUCKY is your 8/5 morning line favorite and will line up at the extreme outside post position #13. Sure, he’s won all 4 of his lifetime starts, and the son of Smart Strike is also perfect over the California plastics, but has he ever had to break from out here in no man’s land? On the plus side, with nobody to his outside, he’ll probably get a clean break – which is something you always have to worry about any time you line up 14 2-year-olds like this. It actually might be a blessing rather than a hinderance. I just can’t take 8/5 from all the way out here in a race this deep. I think he’s a fine colt, and Bob Baffert has certainly proven he can prepare horses with the best of them, but I’ll be trying to beat him most likely.
I’m going to use NOBLE’S PROMISE as my top selection here and then use one of the more obvious selections in LOOKIN AT LUCKY directly underneath. AKENITE, ASPIRE, ESKENDEREYA, D’FUNNYBONE, and RADIOHEAD are all about equal in my next tier, but I really want to size up some of these Europeans with my eyeballs before finalizing things. For now I’ll go with RADIOHEAD as my third choice, if only because he’s a creep and weirdo.
It’s time for the not-so-aptly named (these past two years at least) Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. From here on out we’re in Grade 1 territory. Ten horses have lined up for a race that features another formidable favorite. I highly suspect this might be a race folks will be taking a stand on one way or another in the Pick 6 sequence. The field sets up like this:
Mastercraftsman (6/5*)
Furthest Land (20/1)
Midshipman (6/1)
Bullsbay (3/1)
Neko Bay (20/1)
Mambo Meister (30/1)
Pyro (10/1)
Mr. Sidney (12/1)
Chocolate Candy (15/1)
Ready’s Echo (20/1)
Johnny Murtagh and Mastercraftsman loom the ones to beat in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
MASTERCRAFTSMAN comes into this race looking mighty tough to defeat. The only horse to have bested this dude during the 2009 season has been a colt you may have heard of before; Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe champion Sea the Stars – who managed to defeat him 3 times in as many tries. MASTERCRAFTSMAN never humiliated himself, even against that monster, and in fact ran 2nd to him in the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes at York (GB) back in August. Even more importantly, he demonstrated his ability to win over synthetics by winning the Group 3 Diamond Stakes at Dundalk (IRE) last out. A force to be reckoned with. Beat him if you can.
FURTHEST LAND is a 20/1 longshot son of Smart Strike exiting his best ever performance last out at Turfway Park. He sports an impressive 2 for 2 record over synthetic racing surfaces, albeit at longer distances. He could find himself up close early on due to the absence of any standout speed in this race on paper. Trainer Michael Maker is having a banner season, hitting at nearly 30% or better in each of the categories displayed on his Daily Racing Form running lines. Intriguing, especially considering his anticipated value.
MIDSHIPMAN is best remembered as the champion of the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He spent most of the 2009 season on the bench, but returned to defeat optional allowance claiming company at Belmont in September to signal his readiness for the 2009 Breeders’ Cup. Godolphin Stables has been having a solid 2009 and you have to respect anything that they and trainer Saeed bin Suroor send to post, especially a 3-year-old that still has room for improvement.
BULLSBAY races for my main man, trainer Graham Motion. The son of Tiznow sports a late closing kick that could be hampered if only a soft pace develops out in front of him. Still, we’ve seen this guy run gamely against the likes of Rachel Alexandra, so you know he can hang with the best of ‘em. His last synthetic effort in the Hollywood Gold Cup is the race that most California fans consistently pointed to throughout the year as proof that horses Zenyatta had beaten (namely Life Is Sweet) had also defeated runners Rachel had beaten, but this guy totally flopped that day finishing 10th out of 13 and was clearly off his usual form. Way back in 2008 he turned in a better performance finishing 3rd over the “plastics”, which is more along the lines of the type of performance he’d need to prevail here. You know I’ll be rooting for Graham Motion and Bullsbay, but this one could be tough for BULLSBAY.
NEKO BAY seems to be a fairly consistent son of Giant’s Causeway for trainer John Shirreffs. Mike Smith will hop aboard to complete the most popular human tandem in all of California racing at the moment, and this horse could make some noise here. That last allowance race was tougher than it’s designation suggests, and he’s run gamely in both Grade 2 and Grade 3 efforts in the past. Don’t take this guy too lightly. He could be the sneak of this field – especially at 20/1.
MAMBO MEISTER is a son of King Cugat making his first synthetic start in the “Dirt” Mile. Folks might shy away from him quite a bit due to the dreaded “dirt-to-synthetic” angle and the lack of proven Pro Ride form, but I like the fact that he’s won on both turf and dirt – horses that do that usually handle the synthetics just fine. Whether he has the ability to run a career best coming off that last 100 Beyer figure performance is the bigger question. One interesting angle to consider: what if this guy were to find himself on the lead? His effort back in May in the Big Bubble suggests that’s possible. Just something to think about as you look at those 30/1 odds.
PYRO is a horse that folks seem to either love or hate. Personally, I’ve always liked the guy. He tries his best in each performance, even if he is something of a “plodder.” It’s interesting that he’s been effective since cutting back to the 7 furlong distance. Trouble is, he has an attempt at the mile distance here over the Pro Ride, and it was not a performance to remember. Still, Godolphin seems to have perked this guy back up since getting their hands on him from Steve Asmussen. This is a horse who once trained alongside the mighty Curlin as that one prepared for the 2008 Dubai World Cup, and he was a Grade 1 winner at Saratoga this year in the Forego. You could do a lot worse for your money.
MR. SIDNEY is an interesting turf runner (primarily) for trainer Bill Mott that will be giving it a second go on the synthetics here in the BC Mile. His last effort resulted in a 2nd place finish at the allowance level last October at Keeneland. It looks like he’s improved since then, having competed in numerous Grade 1 races, including a victory in the Makers Mark back in April. Mott will obviously be hoping that newfound turf form translates into newfound Pro Ride form, and it’s certainly possible. He seems to like to sit about 4 lengths back or so in the early going, so it’ll be interesting to see where he shakes out given the perplexing pace scenario here. Probably needs a great trip from Kent Desormeaux to pull this one off.
CHOCOLATE CANDY is the son of Candy Ride that is owned by the famed Jenny Craig. A steady diet of synthetic races since his couple of flops in the Derby and Belmont on dirt have resulted in improved performances, if not outright victory. He’s an even running type that seems to not really have that extra gear that folks become enamored with on the race track, yet he’s a popular horse that seems to always generate a certain amount of buzz. In his last four races, he’s run into Gitano Hernando, Grazen, Summer Bird, and of course Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby. I don’t see him winning this race, but he can certainly hit the board.
READY”S ECHO is a rather nondescript (in terms of victories) son of More Than Ready that I best remember as one of trainer Todd Pletcher’s ubiquitous “shots” in the 2008 Belmont. Since then he’s showed that he can hit the board, but would probably need the race of his life to win here. Stranger things have happened, but I’m not biting – even though 20/1 is more than fair for a runner capable of 100+ Beyer figures. One note in his favor – I actually think READY”S ECHO is a better synthetic runner than he ever was a dirt runner. Just my humble opinion, althouth his 3-1-2-0 record over the stuff seems to support that claim.
I’ll use the obvious choice here in MASTERCRAFTSMAN for the win, as I don’t see anyone that instills confidence in me from an upset perspective. Underneath I’m toying with playing some shots in both MAMBO MEISTER and NEKO BAY. I’ll probably have to use my boy BULLSBAY here as well, and I’m sure my wife will talk me into using PYRO as well (she’s already mentioned “I saw Pyro is running!” excitedly….you know how that goes – now I can’t possibly let him beat me). I think MIDSHIPMAN deserves a chance here as well, for like I said earlier, we still may have yet to see the best from this guy.
Time is getting short. At the beginning of the week it seemed like there was ample time to compile selections, but as the days of the week tick bye, it’s starting to feel like crunch time. I’m scheduled to fly out to California for the Breeders’ Cup tomorrow, so the feeling is even more urgent for yours truly to get all the initial picks and analysis covered – if only that I may look like a complete fool in retrospect by the end of the weekend. Such is the life of an aspiring horseplayer, I suppose.
The field for the $1,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint sets up like this:
Noble Court (8/1)
Silver Timber (8/1)
California Flag (7/2*)
Lord Shanakill (8/1)
Get Funky (20/1)
Cannonball (8/1)
Gotta Have Her (15/1)
Square Eddie (20/1)
Diamondrella (4/1)
Canadian Ballet (20/1)
El Gato Malo (30/1)
Strike the Deal (15/1)
Desert Code (20/1)
Delta Storm (10/1)
AE – Tenga Cat (30/1)
AE – Cherokee Heaven (30/1)
Good lord. Sixteen possible contenders to handicap? Seems like it would stand to reason that we might have a great betting race before us. I’ll temper that expectation a bit from the start that by pointing out the obvious – we’ve got a very live favorite here who might get an extremely favorable pace setup alone on the lead. Let’s keep this simple and run down the field horse by horse and see what we can discern, shall we?
NOBLE COURT is a son of Doneralie Court that appears to like to come from off the pace. He’s 1 for 1 over the track and distance for trainer John Sadler, who happens to be hitting at a 22% clip for the meet. They like to give him some time between starts, and he hasn’t been seen since a very good 2nd place finish to the mighty Zensational (whom we will see later on in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint). Overall he’s a Grade 3 winner who would appear to have a good shot to wind up in the money, although it will take his best to prevail.
SILVER TIMBER is a very interesting runner that has won 4 of his last 5 starts for trainer Chad Brown, racing mostly on the east coast but also most recently at Keeneland. One of the angles I like to see from an out of town contender is proven ability to win at multiple locations, and the son of Prime Timber has done that recently in finding his way to the winner’s circle at Keeneland, Belmont, and Gulf Stream Park this year. One gets the feeling this guy is rounding (or perhaps has rounded) into his top form now at 6-years-old. He certainly seems a better horse than he was last year, which is saying something considering he ran for one of the better turf sprint trainers in the nation back then in Linda Rice.
CALIFORNIA FLAG is the local hero and winner of the Morvich Handicap (Grade 3) last out, a win which ran his recent record to an impressive 5 victories in his last 6 starts. He’s a burner for sure, perhaps best indicated by the mind blowing :20 & 3 he he ran out of the gate in last year’s BC Turf Sprint – a race that saw him fade badly to 10th at the wire, as might be expected given such a lightning start. Since then he’s been very smart – and quite deadly in California, having won at Hollywood Park, Del Mar, and Santa Anita this year. If he gets loose on the lead again, which he very well could, watch out.
LORD SHANAKILL looks like one of the sneakier options in this race. He’s a 3-year-old son of Speightstown, so you know he was born to sprint. He’s one of the somewhat mystical (to American bettors) European horses, and obviously they are strongly considered on grass. His form isn’t eye popping enough that he’ll get hammered at the windows, but he has run respectably against Mastercraftsman (potential favorite for the BC Mile). Can’t really say the same for his effort against Sea the Stars though. Interesting possible x-factor here to size up as much as you can in the post parade.
GET FUNKY is a hard knocker that always seems to be hitting the board for minor awards. The son of Straight Man (interesting contrast to this one’s name) has seemed to improve though this summer, and seems to prefer this shorter distance. He just missed by a length against CALIFORNIA FLAG in the Morvich and could be one to benefit should the favorite be softened up at all in the pace setup.
CANNONBALL is another who seems to be slowly improving just in time for this effort. The son of Catienus finished 2nd in his final Group One effort this summer at Ascot in the Golden Jubilee Stakes. He followed that up with a victory in a NY state bred stakes for $74k at Saratoga in September that only drew a 6 horse field. I see some things to like in this guy, although obviously the stakes (pardon the pun) get higher here.
GOTTA HAVE HER is another sneaky looking type, this time for trainer Jenine Sahadi. The daughter of Royal Academy has won back to back races, and just missed to Magical Fantasy (who we will see in the BC Filly & Mare Turf on Friday) in the Grade 1 John C. Mabee at Del Mar. Sahadi is hitting at 31% with last out winners, and jockey Tyler Baze has been having a stellar meet winning at a 23% clip. Toss in a perfect 4 for 4 record at the distance and an impressive 9-5-1-2 record at Santa Anita and I think this is a mare you’re going to have to use in some fashion – especially at 15/1.
SQUARE EDDIE looks like an outsider here. It pains me to say that as the once proclaimed “baby Curlin” is a horse I’ve always wanted to see accomplish great things. He just hasn’t looked quite the same this year. His running motion concerns me a bit, although I’m by no means an expert on such things. On the positive side, his human connections are strong with trainer Doug O’Niell and of course Dettori taking the mount. I’d love to see him get it done – I just don’t think it’s in the cards.
DIAMONDRELLA is nothing if not a model of consistency. We’re talking about a horse who has won 7 of 9 races since joining the barn of Richard Dutrow, including a pair of Grade 1′s (the Justa Game at Belmont and the First Lady at Keeneland). One of those 2 losses was by a head, and the other was to Informed Decision, who has a big shot to win the BC Sprint later in the card. I really like this horse. My only concerns are a lack of recent published works at Santa Anita, and the fact that she’s never been over the course. Of the ladies lined up to battle the boys in this race, I think she makes the most sense. If you’re looking to play against the favorite, this would be my top pick as “best of the rest.”
CANADIAN BALLET is a 4-year-old filly running out of the Linda Rice barn. If you know me, then you know turf sprints aren’t my cup of tea. This means that Linda Rice is, without question, my equine related soul mate – as we are polar opposites. You’d be hard pressed to find a finer trainer for such affairs, and while I like this daughter of City Zip, I’m just not sure that she can go with CALIFORNIA FLAG. All of her wins have been wire-to-wire, which means to prevail, she’ll need to do something new. Hmmmmm. Very nice filly, I’m just going to lean elsewhere.
EL GATO MALO – man, I remember when this guy was one of my favorite 3-year-olds on the California circuit last year. Obviously he’s a year longer in the tooth. Trouble is though, he’s just never really put it all together. On his absolute best I see him as fighting for a minor award here. In all fairness though, a look down the list of horses to have beaten him recently is fairly impressive. Yes, that last race was only an Allowance level one, but Neko Bay, Mast Track, and Becrux is pretty darn salty for such a race.
STRIKE THE DEAL is the last of the types I’d classify as “sneaky” (15/1 still qualifies as “sneaky”, doesn’t it?). A winner of back to back starts in the U.K., the 4-year-old son of Van Nistelrooy retains the services of jockey Kieran Fallon for the Turf Sprint. I’m not as familiar with some of the competition he’s faced, so like the other “sneaky” plays, he’s a bit of an x-factor, but certainly seems capable. He seems to have overcome some trouble in each of the last victories, and his lines suggest he might be moving well late. I’d like to see this guy with my own eyes first before finalizing my opinion.
DESERT CODE is a bit on an enigma. You almost feel surprised when you think back and remember that he won this race last year. At first glance you see his recent form and you think “no way.” But look closely – especially at how he came into this race last year. Would you believe that in his final prep for the 2008 BC Turf he also finished 7th to California Flag? Hmmm. The more things change, the more they stay the same. He’s not one of my top picks, but would anyone really be that surprised if he somehow did it again? Respect this guy more than his recent form or the action on the tote board might otherwise suggest. I mean c’mon – do you want to let last year’s victor beat you at 20/1? I didn’t think so. He’s as worth a $2 flyer as any horse I’ve handicapped thus far for that reason alone.
DELTA STORM is a Mike Mitchell trainee who has put up speed figures that clearly make him a contender. He’ll get a pace to run at, but must overcome breaking from the 14 hole. I think he’s a prime candidate to hit the board – “if” he can get a decent trip. Joel Rosario will be in the irons attempting to make that happen. Remember earlier in the year when folks were avoiding Rosario on the grass? How sweet would it be if he picked up a BC turf race? Just something to ponder.
As if all of this weren’t enough, there’s two horses on the also eligible list that might draw into the field. Of the two, TENGA CAT seems to be more of a pace pressing type, while CHEROKEE HEAVEN seems to like coming from off the pace – which I’d prefer given the lightning speed in this race casually referred to as CALIFORNIA FLAG.
I like the looks of both CALIFORNIA FLAG and DIAMONDRELLA here. Obviously CALIFORNIA FLAG has a lot going for him and is worthy of top selection, but DIAMONDRELLA offers slightly better value. Underneath on the exotics, I’d like to work in DESERT CODE, CANNONBALL, and GOTTA HAVE HER, along with possibly LORD SHANAKILL.
Now that we’ve got the morning line odds, post positions, and initial scratches/changes to work with, we can take a bit of a more in depth look at the racing action at Santa Anita as we continue with our race by race look at the Breeders’ Cup. We’ll turn our attention to the $1 million Grade 2 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf for the moment. The field sets up as follows:
Zip Quick (50/1)
Viscount Nelson (6/1)
Codoy (15/1)
Pounced (9/2)
Gallant Gent (30/1)
Awesome Act (20/1)
Bridgetown (8/1)
King Ledley (20/1)
Kera’s Kitten (12/1)
Becky’s Kitten (12/1)
Interactif (4/1*)
Buzzword (6/1)
AE – Dean’s Kitten (12/1)
AE – Summer Movie (50/1)
Like many of the races this weekend, the Juvenile Turf sets up as a showdown between the U.S. and Europe. The U.S. contingent is led by INTERACTIF, a son of Broken Vow who has won 3 of 4 lifetime races. Perhaps even more impressively, he’s proven his versatility by winning at 3 different tracks (Monmouth, Saratoga, and Keeneland), on two different surfaces (turf and dirt), and on varying track conditions (“yielding” in the G3 Bourbon and “firm” in the With Anticipation). Trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Kent Desormeaux will team up on INTERACTIF and attempt to get a tepid 4/1 morning line favorite home in the first action of the day on Saturday.
Opposing that outcome will be a contingent of potentially tough horses from Europe, comprised of BUZZWORD, POUNCED, KING LEDLEY, AWESOME ACT, and VISCOUNT NELSON. Either of these 4 appear capable on paper, and we all know how the betting public (including yours truly) like to focus on the Euros in these types of races.
It’s extremely difficult to separate this group on paper – at least in my estimation. We see some familiar names in their running lines, including Beethoven and Siyouni. POUNCED got the closest to Siyouni last out in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (a race which should clearly be renamed the “Jean-Luc Picard” in honor of Star Trek TNG), but BUZZWORD has arguably been the more consistent horse and actually defeated Siyouni in the Group 3 Prix La Rochette in September.
Do note, however, that neither POUNCED nor BUZZWORD have ever raced through left handed turns.
BUZZWORD and POUNCED exit the Jean-Luc at Longchamp, and will look to “make it so” in the BC Juvie Turf
Of course, it’s not like there aren’t other directions handicappers can turn in this race. The above merely constitutes some of the more obvious things to consider. Several up-and-coming types dot the field and make for interesting potential value plays.
VISCOUNT NELSON looks particularly attractive at 6/1 on the morning line. The sone of Giant’s Causeway has arguable improved in each race, despite being bested by 3/4 of a length last out at Doncaster in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes (where’s that gratuitous Christopher Walken “shamp-ah-nya” photo when I need it???). Johnny Murtagh will retain the mount for trainer Aidan O’ Brien on this very appealing colt that is notably 2 for 2 lifetime at the 1 mile distance. My only question is how the colt may fare over a more firmer surface, as so far he seems to have encountered softer footing than he’s likely to run over at Santa Anita.
likewise, AWESOME ACT is a horse who can offer a ton of value at 20/1, provided you are able to forgive the 9th place finish last out in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket (GB). Take a look at that running line before you dismiss this guy. He missed the start, was bumped, adn then was rank? Talk about a trip from hell. Draw a line through that race and he suddenly makes quite a bit more sense, doesn’t he? Of course, it’s also worth noting that he has a tendency to be “rank” in nearly every race he’s run, so don’t expect a 180 turnaround – unless of course he really enjoyed the flight across the pond.
With all that attention focused on the Euros, it’s easy to overlook some of the more local contenders. BRIDGETOWN certainly hasn’t done anything to disgrace himself in 3 lifetime races. Usually I’m a bit leery of playing Speightstown offspring at anything over 7 furlongs, but he’s proven he can get that crucial 8th furlong. Trainer Ken McPeek is having himself a tremendous 2009 season, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if this guy somehow lit up the tote board.
One could also make a bit of a case for GALLANT GENT based on his synthetic form; assuming of course that you are comfortable in taking the leap of faith that such form will translate well to the turf. It’s also interesting to note that Joel Rosario will hop back aboard the son of Yankee Gentlemen, as these two paired up for victory at the Allowance level back in July at the Del Mar summer meet.
Then there’s CODOY, a son of Bernstein currently listed at 15/1 who has yet to run a bad race. True, it took him 4 tries to break his maiden, but he seems to be on the upswing. I’m not expecting him to be able to defeat this field, but he could offer some value underneath if he takes that proverbial “next step.”
As for the “kitten” horses, I’ll leave those to the cat-themed players, although if you really twisted my arm here I could point out some angles on each of them that give you something to consider.
The only horse that would really floor me if they won is ZIP QUICK, as I can’t really make a solid case for him beyond having run 2nd over the dirt to D’funnybone, and picking up the services of jockey Mike Smith (oh wait, that’s two angles, isn’t it?).
I’m going to guess that this race comes down to the wire in a very interesting battle between the top horses entered. I’ll look for BUZZWORD, BRIDGETOWN, POUNCED, VISCOUNT NELSON and INTERACTIF to all have a shot as the field nears the wire. In the end I prefer INTERACTIF due to his versatility, and POUNCED as the “now horse” from Europe, although you best believe I’ll have BUZZWORD, VISCOUNT NELSON, and possibly BRIDGETOWN in my exotic tickets. No need to get bounced in the first leg of anything, right? I’m not even going to guess about the underneath finishes as they’ll likely be a wall of horses just behind the leaders with nearly everyone still picking ‘em up and ‘putting ‘em down with a shot to hit the board. Suffice to say I’m expecting some combination of these guys to hit the board.
I’m making POUNCED the top choice just because I always get nervous backing Todd Pletcher in big races. Maybe it’s the oft-repeated Derby record that gives me pause. I know this isn’t the Derby though, so I may be foolish for doing so. I’ve also learned to fear any horse that Dettori climbs aboard, and seeing him listed atop what I believe to be the “now” horse in POUNCED, I can’t help but make him the selection. Sweetening the pot is the fact that he’s slightly more favorable odds wise at 9/2 (instead of 4/1).
Now that we’ve looked in depth at each of the Friday Breeders’ Cup races this week at Santa Anita, it’s time to get down to business in the Friday finale, the $2 million Ladies Classic. This just happens to be the race I’ve been covering this season for the NTRA, so hopefully it’s one that I wind up being closer to the mark on in terms of selections.
Obviously the fate of this race will be determined by the connections for team Zenyatta. If the undefeated and defending champion returns to preserve her crown, the entire thing becomes academic. There’s simply not another filly or mare in the world that could handle her in her own back yard on the Santa Anita Pro Ride. Don’t read too much into that statement though, as I think most folks know how I feel about the whole Rachel Alexandra/Zenyatta “debate.”
Zenyatta – will the queen hold court in the Ladies Classic on Friday, or face the boys on Saturday?
In all honesty, given the way she’s worked and the effortless performance we saw from her last out in the Lady’s Secret, I’m fully anticipating the Moss family and trainer John Shirreffs opt to face the boys in a battle of the sexes in the Saturday version of the Classic. With that in mind, despite her being listed as an entry for the field below, I’m attacking this race assuming that Zenyatta will not be here.
Entries:
Careless Jewel
Cocoa Beach
Lethal Heat
Proviso
Rainbow View
Zenyatta
Life is Sweet
Mushka
Music Note
The first thing to consider in the likely absence of ZENYATTA is the pace scenario. Whereas a 3-year-old like CARELESS JEWEL, freakish as she may be, would likely have been nothing more than a target for the “50 foot woman” to run at, she’d now become a serious threat to wire the field. Especially given her synthetic track ability demonstrated in her past performance running lines at Woodbine earlier in the year. Is Woodbine the same as Santa Anita’s Pro Ride? Not exactly – but at least it’s an indication of ability.
MUSIC NOTE would be your most likely favorite in the absence of ZENYATTA as the daughter of A.P. Indy has won back to back races for white hot Godolphin Stables. We know this, she can handle the Santa Anita Pro Ride just fine, as she did in last year’s Ladies Classic in her 3rd place finish behind ZENYATTA and COCOA BEACH.
Speaking of COCOA BEACH, the daughter of Doneralie Court finds herself right back where she was last year at this time. To be totally honest, I liked her form coming into the Ladies Classic last year better than I do this year. She’s still very capable against a Zenyatta-less field, but she might’ve been a step better in 2008. On the plus side, she’s working her tail off and, like MUSIC NOTE, is racing for the Godolphin crew that seems to turn everything they touch into gold lately.
LETHAL HEAT is an interesting component of this race as trainer Barry Abrams insists she’ll run on both Friday AND Saturday. Personally I think that’s madness, but she definitely warrants consideration here on Friday in the Ladies Classic. As I mentioned in the NTRA post today, you have to go back quite a ways to find her last win, but keep in mind that she’s been facing colts and ZENYATTA in between. She just about always finds a way to finish in the money, and we all know that offspring of Unusual Heat seem to thrive over the California synthetics. Don’t sell this gal too short is all I’m saying.
RAINBOW VIEW is a 3-year-old invader from Europe who would make quite a bit of sense in this race. Whether she runs here or earlier on the card will likely be determined by the decisions made surrounding Zenyatta, but if she shows up she’s capable of staging the upset.
LIFE IS SWEET would probably let out a huge sigh of relief if she could if indeed ZENYATTA runs elsewhere. Her stablemate has had the misfortune of running directly into her in 3 of the last 4 races, with a showdown against colts like Rail Trip sandwiched in between. Go back to her running lines before those last 4 races and what do you notice? Oh yeah – this is a pretty solid horse who should be very game to run a big race here regardless of where ZENYATTA enters.
MUSHKA and PROVISO have the look of outsiders, although anyone who watched them in the stretch of the Grade 1 Spinster at Keeneland knows they’ve got a bit of a score to settle.
If ZENYATTA runs here, it’s her race to lose. That’s probably the most obvious statement of the year.
If, however, she runs elsewhere, I’m going to take a stab with the 3-year-old phenom CARELESS JEWEL. Why not? Speed seems to be holding up fairly well in 2 turn route races over the Pro Ride. It’ll take all she’s got in her, as she’s yet to face horses as talented as MUSIC NOTE and RAINBOW VIEW, but this one might set up nicely for her.
Obviously the class of MUSIC NOTE and RAINBOW VIEW would warrant using them underneath. Likewise I don’t think you can leave LETHAL HEAT or LIFE IS SWEET out of the equation here as well. What appeared to be the “free square” of the Pick 6 sequence several days ago might suddenly become a wide open affair with bettors scrambling to end their tickets on some sort of bold stand.
What say you? If Zenyatta does indeed skip the Ladies’ Classic, which runner do you see stepping up to the plate (pardon the World Series inspired expression) and winding up in the winner’s circle as Ladies Classic champion?
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