With less than two months until the 2011 Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May, the 3-year-old thoroughbred division is starting to take shape as we separate the legitimate contenders from the numerous pretenders. On Saturday racing fans were treated to solid performances from two serious racehorses, as well as a disappointing performance from a horse thought by many to be among the elite.
Uncle Mo, last seen in November crushing the field of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by 4 1/4 lengths, returned to action in what for all intents and purposes amounted to a public workout in the Timely Writer at Gulfstream Park. The son of Indian Charlie was making his first start of the season for trainer Todd Pletcher, who opted for the softer 1-turn mile rather than bang heads with stablemate Brethren in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Despite being bumped at the start of the race, Uncle Mo wound up winning for fun in 1:36.56, drawing clear by 3 3/4 lengths. While the champ still clearly has the goods, there may be room for some concern as he’ll have just one additional start (presumably the Grade 1 Wood Memorial on April 9) before the Derby with which to prepare for the longer distances (and added turn) of the Triple Crown season.
As the evening progressed, another of Todd Pletcher’s purported contenders, Sam F. Davis winner Brethren, was sent to post assumed to be the class of the field in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. Instead a pair of longshots in Watch Me Go (43/1) and Crimson Knight (86/1) handed the son of Distorted Humor his first lifetime defeat in what has to be considered a disappointing effort.
It wasn’t just that he got beat – he got beat after relatively pedestrian early fractions (:23.73 and :48.20) by horses whose class would not appear to stack up against the heavyweights of the division. Brethren had soundly defeated Watch Me Go by 5 lengths in the Sam F. Davis stakes on February 12. Like many, it looks like I may have wasted a spot in my Road to the Roses stable on Brethren.
Brethren - "I Am Disappoint"
As the saying goes, often we find that the best is saved for last – and that was certainly the case this weekend as attention shifted westward to Santa Anita for the Grade 2 San Felipe. Premier Pegasus, the horse that my good friend Tencent has been heralding as his Derby selection since last Fall, was absolutely brilliant in cruising to a 7 length victory over what appeared on paper to be a very interesting group of horses. In the process he likely stamped his ticket to the Kentucky Derby by virtue of picking up $150k in precious graded stakes earnings.
The son of 2000 Kentucky Derby champion Fusaichi Pegasus also served notice to Uncle Mo and the rest of the Derby contenders that there was a new face in town – and one that would appear to mean serious business.
The victory gives Korean-born trainer Myung Kwon Cho a chance to rise from the ranks of the relatively unknown to celebrity if he can continue to move forward and avoid any setbacks between now and May. Premier Pegasus may have benefited from a hot pace in the San Felipe (opening splits were :21.75 and :44.58, respectively), but when a horse makes an explosive move like that in the turn and then opens up a veritable can of whoop-ass in the stretch, I think you’d be wise to take notice and give serious respect.
PrePeg, as his fans call him, was 7 3/4 lengths ahead of the late closing Jaycito at the wire, stopping the timer in the 1 1/16 mile San Felipe at 1:41.23. He returned $16.43 for the win, as the betting public let him get away at odds of 7/1 at post time.
The PrePeg/Jaycito Exacta returned $24.30 and if you backed the good looking colt Bench Points on the bottom of the Trifecta you were rewarded with a payout of $201.60. Pace factor Comma at the Top rounded out a Superfecta that returned $935.10.
Coming up next weekend is the $300k Grade 2 Rebel Derby at Oaklawn Park. I may not have been posting as frequently this year for numerous reasons, but suffice to say the action this weekend has sparked the fire and I’ve done a bit of housecleaning this weekend as a result – including a new Derby Watch List page with rankings and race replays for the key Kentucky Derby prep races. I’ve attached a screenshot of my latest rankings below (just click on the table below for an easier to read full sized image).
Odysseus - photo by Natalie Keller Reinert: http://retiredracehorseblog.wordpress.com/
From our vantage point, as the weekend draws to a close, the past 24 hours have been a whirlwind of mind-boggling activity. We stood and cheered as the undefeated Zenyatta imposed her will on the field of the Santa Margarita in Slow Cheetah style. We gasped in disbelief as our beloved Rachel Alexandra was collared in the stretch by the unheralded Zardana in the New Orleans Ladies.
A roller-coaster of ups and downs that only now are we beginning to be able to put into proper context. Along the way we also caught a glimpse of some of the better 3-year-olds in the land as they continued their quest for all important graded stakes earnings in order to secure a starting spot in the 2010 Kentucky Derby.
Perhaps lost in the day’s excitement was the emergence of a lightly raced 3-year-old – Odysseus.
Author’s Note: For awesome-terrific dramatic effect, and you know I only break out the multisyllabic expressions like awesome-terrific when things are really awesome-terrific, this post is set to the lyrics of the song “When We Were Young” by The Killers.
Yes, I used this same song in the same fashion when Curlin’s retirement was announced. I think you’ll understand why I think it fits again here by the time you finish with this post. Besides, it’s a beautiful song, and I…we apologize for the duration of this italicized Author’s Note. Those responsible for its length have been sacked.
“You sit there in your heartache. Waiting on some beautiful boy to save you from your old ways. You play forgiveness. Watch it now, here it comes!”
If there’s one thing I simply can’t do with any sort of acumen (besides long division or picking the winners of turf sprints), it’s pick a Kentucky Derby horse. Each year amounts to amiserable suffering of ineptitude. Ever since Barbaro (in a year that I also gave out Bandini as a ‘must use’), my selections have been Curlin (07), Colonel John (08), and Quality Road (09, followed by I Want Revenge and Friesan Fire as the Derby scratches mounted).
Needless to say, my confidence in picking a Derby horse was effectively shattered. After all, despite having an eye for SOLID race horses, I was a big fat 0-3 in recent years in our most popular race, and my one winner in the last 4 campaigns (Barbaro) suffered a horrific career ending injury in my favorite race of the year – the Preakness!
Some folks would interpret this as a curse. Not me. Like some Hall & Oates song, I can’t help but feel we’ve been “so close, yet so far away.”
I really thought I had something that first time I saw Curlin in 2007 (turns out I was right about that overall, just not for the Derby). It was the morning after his victory in the Rebel. I hadn’t seen the race live. I don’t remember what it was that caused me to miss the race, but I vividly recall firing up the youtube replay. The subtitle to the video told me everything I hoped to see. Curlin had won.
I was only aware of the majestic chestnut through online whispers from folks who had seen his maiden victory. Watching the grainy replay that morning, my jaw hit the floor as he unleashed his giant strides and opened up a veritable can of whoop-ass on the field, pulling away to a 5 1/4 lengths victory in the 8.5 furlong Rebel in 1:44&3. Had he really beaten anyone? Hindsight would suggest not much, although the show horse Teuflesberg was the winner of the Southwest Stakes and would go on to win the Woody Stephens (Grade 2) at Belmont.
Fast forward to this year. Odysseus made his first appearance against winners on February 17 at Tampa Bay, beating allowance foes by 15 lengths and travelling 8.5 furlongs in 1:44&1. Once again, by virtue of being at work that Wednesday afternoon, I had missed the race live. It wasn’t until I got home and heard folks mentioning the impressive victory that I went back to check things out for myself. Imagine my surprise then when this chestnut beauty caught my eyes. I had to pinch myself in disbelief. I know Square Eddie got a lot of publicity for being called “baby Curlin” last year, but in one race Odysseus had proven to me that he was much closer to a true “baby Curlin” than Square Eddie ever was.
Here he was, the horse I had been looking for all year.
“Can we climb this mountain? I don’t know. Higher now than ever before. I know we can make it we take it slow. Let’s take it easy. Easy now, watch him go!”
Will he make it all the way to the Kentucky Derby and have a chance in the run for the roses? Only time will tell. I think we all know that anything can happen between now and the first Saturday in May. For now Padua Stables and trainer Thomas Albertrani will be taking it the proverbial “one day at a time.” I’m certain that they too are starting to feel like they may have something special here. Let’s face it though, he’s also as green as can be in the stretch. It almost felt like he lost interest at times in the Tampa Bay Derby. Maybe he was just toying with the field, but if so than even he had to be worried as he raced to the wire along with Schoolyard Dreams. The amazing thing about the victory was that most horses would’ve given up. You don’t often see horses re-rally like that in the stretch.
His “watch him go” moment was when he darted to the inside, just before the call “Odysseus is running again!”
“We’re burning down the highway skyline on the back of a hurricane that started turning when you were young.”
I’ve always thought that was the most beautiful line of the entire song, and the most fitting for a horse racing post. In fact, it’s probably that line that continually leads me back to this song for repeated references. Either that or the hours spent playing the album version on Guitar Hero and Rock Band, but I digress.
Odysseus (#7) and the field for the Tampa Bay Derby pass the stands on Saturday 3/13. Photo by Natalie Keller Reinert: http://retiredracehorseblog.wordpress.com/
“We’re burning down the highway skyline, on the back of a hurricane.”
That has to capture a bit of what jockey Rajiv Maragh is feeling as he pilots the son of Malibu Moon (A.P. Indy) into the turn. think about it. Rajiv’s been aboard him for all 4 lifetime races. They are a team now. They know each other. So much so that despite being given up on by everyone (including, I’ll admit it, even me) as the field entered the stretch for the Tampa Bay Derby, Odysseus still had something he wanted say about the matter. You’ve gotta love that he can gut out the close victories. Anyone can blow an inferior field away by open lengths – but gutting out those photo finish, final head bob victories are what really separates the men from the boys. Especially this time of year.
There’s something else though, and it relates to the hurricane reference. Hurricanes are noted for their speed and destructive power of their damaging winds. Odysseus definitely has speed, and he’s certainly got a powerful stride that helps him get where he needs to be in the stretch. He’s a bit wild and uncontrollable – but devastating when unleashed. Rather like the wind of a hurricane.
“And sometimes you close your eyes and see the place where you used to live. When you were young.”
I’m sure that no matter where the winds of fate may blow Odysseus (his namesake in Greek literature having been unable to reach the shores of Ithaca following the Trojan War for 10 full years), that in the back of his mind he’ll always be able to picture the winner’s circle at Tampa Bay Downs. He might’ve broken his maiden at Gulfstream Park, but Tampa Bay is where he put it all together and announced to the world that he was a 3-year-old worth watching. Much like Curlin did at Oaklawn Park in the spring of 2007.
Up next is reportedly a possible entry in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on Saturday, April 3. His graded stakes earnings now stand at $180,000, enough to put him inside the top 20 overall, but probably still in need of additional money if he wants to secure a starting spot for the Derby.
Personally, while I’d obviously love to see my “Derby horse” actually make the Kentucky Derby field, I’ll admit that the race I really want to see him in is the Preakness, since I’ll be there for that one live.
If he does get into the Derby though, then he might need to close his eyes and remember that most recent performance at Tampa Bay. He showed he can navigate traffic, which will be crucial in the 20 horse field at Churchill Downs. He also showed he’s got heart to go along with his natural abilities, and based on what I’ve seen from this colt, I have no trouble making him my top dog.
I haven’t been this excited about a big red 3-year-old since, well,you know who.
Go get ‘em Big Red! You’re my boy, Odysseus!
And in true Jerry McGuire style, I’ve got to ask…
Who’s coming with us?
Who’s hopping aboard the Odysseus bandwagon with me? Our next station stop is Chruchill Downs, by way of Aqueduct (or so it seems for the moment). There’s room for everyone where we’re going.
All aboard!
Coincidentally, if you are with me on this horse, I’vestarted a fan group for him over on Facebook. It seemed like the right time to do so. Come join us if you are so inclined.
I’d also like to give special mention to Natalie Keller Reinert for the amazing photographs of Odysseus from the Tampa Bay Derby. If you like the photos, please give her blog a visit at: http://retiredracehorseblog.wordpress.com/
“[W]e have still not reached the end of our trials. One more labor lies in store—boundless, laden with danger, great and long, and I must brave it out from start to finish“
- Odysseus – The Odyssey (Book 23: The Great Rooted Bed)
It took Homer’s legendary hero Odysseus ten full years to return home to Ithaca following the Trojan War. On Wednesday at Tampa Bay Downs, it took a promising 3-year-old colt of the same name only 1:44.37 to travel 8.5 furlongs while demolishing a field of Allowance runners in impressive fashion. In the process, he may have given us our first glimpse at the 2010 Kentucky Derby winner.
So what do we have here? A legitimate Derby contender or a “Trojan Horse”? It was, after all, the cunning Odysseus who came up with the idea for the famed Trojan Horse ruse (after an unsuccessful attempt involving a hastily constructed “large wooden rabbit”, of course).
Let your eyes do the judging. The replay has not been uploaded yet to Youtube as of this writing, but it is available over at Tampa Bay Downs replay archive. Just click on the date 2/17 and then select the 9th race.
Only time (and a healthy dose of luck) will tell if he goes on to achieve the kind of glory he seems capable of. The path to the Derby being literred with countless horses who displayed a flash of brilliance, only to wind up forgotten with the passage of time. We all know painfully well that anything can and will happen on the road to the Derby. It does appear, however, that this is a horse you might want to start taking seriously, and is probably worth adding to the old horse watch list over the weekend so that you don’t miss him next time out.
My personal opinion? I don’t think we’ll see him challenged until he faces the cream of the crop at the Grade 1 level. All things being equal, he appears likely to blow right through the Grade 3 level, and probably the Grade 2 level if they chose to give him a run there.
In fact, not only do I think he’s a contender, but I’m officially jumping squarely on the bandwagon (and busting out my trusty “jump to conclusions mat” for good measure). He’s my Derby horse. All the way to the top of the list. There, I said it.
I guess that’s only fitting and proper considering the tagline for this blog is “the odyssey of a horse racing enthusiast and amateur handicapper.”
And to think, all along I thought it was Aspire I was going to have to hitch my wagons to from a nomenclature standpoint.
It’s not that I want to get too carried away with him, but by and large my gut feeling on this year’s crop is that it’s been largely unimpressive thus far. Nobody had blown me away…at least not until Odysseus came along. I think the world of many of this year’s horses, but none of them had left you with that “wow feeling” in the pit of your stomach. I got that “wow” sensation watching this guy run. Now I just have to hope he stays healthy and can live up to those expectations as a potential date with destiny approaches.
Given my lack of recent Derby success, it seems it would take a horse that invokes remembrances of epic heroes and mythical voyages to break the curse that the horse racing gods have placed upon me. That may be what it takes to get one of my Kentucky Derby picks home. It’s become one of those idiosyncrasies that I no longer try to fight. I just accept it, put my head down, and come to the realization that to plow right through is the only option. Suffice to say, I cannot pick a Derby winner to save my life. Ironic (if not Socratically Ironic) given that I always seem to get the Preakness right, but for the life of me picking a Derby winner has been darn near impossible ever since Barbaro.
Let’s review quickly, if only for a lesson in handicapping ineptitude:
2006: I liked Barbaro and made him my top pick, but also gave out Bandini as a horse that had to be played. I’m not sure if Bandini has even crossed the finish line yet, all these years later.
2007: Obviously I was all about Curlin, although Hard Spun was my 2nd choice. The one horse I was taking a stand against wound up being Street Sense, whose brilliant rail move absolutely crushed the rest of the field. To be honest, huddled around a small monitor without any sound at Pimlico that afternoon, I didn’t even realize that Curlin had fought on for 3rd. Moot point, of course, as he never threatened for the win, but in the end we did get the last laugh in this act.
2008: Deciding that Big Brown could not be played at 5/2 breaking from the 20 hole, despite clearly being the best horse in the race, I put my faith in Colonel John and anointed him as the selection. What followed was perhaps the worst race from the Colonel in his entire career.
2009: A trifecta of Derby related tragedy and ineptitude, having made Quality Road my top choice several weeks out, only to see him injured and scratched from the race. Without batting an eye, I settled on I Want Revenge, only to find out on Derby morning that he too was a no go. Finally, I went with Friesan Fire, who wound up finishing 19th out of 20th.
Why do I bring the painful history denoted above up? Because this is the year we break through. I’ve consulted the Oracle of Delphi on the mater, and in a hypnotic trance she seemed to suggest something about “a wager on the hero brings gold to the chosen ones.” Of course, she also cautioned me against invading Persia, but you know how Oracles can be.
This much I’m certain of: Odysseus is going to be the horse that gives me a shot to finally pull it off.
Overall, this weekend stands to tell us quite a bit about the rest of the crop, with no shortage of Derby prep races being run across the nation. I’m going with D’funnybone over Radiohead in the Hutcheson and Buddy’s Saint over Pulsion in the Fountain of Youth. Nothing particularly surprising there. The Risen Star looks a bit more wide open to me, with Tempted to Tapit, Ron the Greek, Drosselmeyer, and Discreetly Mine all being possible win candidates. I’m going to be playing Tempted to Tapit as my top choice, but it’s not a confident selection. I guess I’ll take Dublin over Conveyance and Cool Bullet in the rescheduled Southwest Stakes, although again, no where near as confident with that pick as I am with D’funnybone in the Hutcheson or Buddy’s Saint in the Fountain of Youth.
The journey has begun, my friends! After this weekend I’ll start putting together a revolving top 10 list each week. For now though, I’m very curious to know what your opinions on Odysseus may be. Did we see a Derby contender on Wednesday, or is he a Trojan Horse that is being overhyped by folks like me?
Hello Broadway, a 3-year-old Broken Vow colt trained by Barclay Tagg, has been installed as the 3/1 morning line favorite in Saturday’s 29th running of the Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 3). Eleven runners will take aim at the $300,000 purse in the 1 1/16 mile race, including General Quarters, winner of the Sam F. Davis (Grade 3) on February 14. The field sets up like this:
The two horses that will rightly garner the most attention are obviously Hello Broadway and General Quarters, but this field looks evenly matched enough that an upset is not out of the question.
Hello Broadway will be stretching out after running 2nd to Capt. Candyman Can in the Hutcheson (Grade 2) on January 30. He’s been training well, having fired bullets on 3/10, 2/26, and 2/21. He also fired a bullet 1/27 just before his effort in the Hutcheson, but that was at 4 furlongs and the more recent bullets were at 5 furlongs. You get the feeling Tagg has been getting this guy to carry his speed a bit further. That being said, I don’t think he wants him on the lead like he was in the Hutcheson. A stalk and pounce trip would seem to be the recipe for success on Saturday.
General Quarters is a heckuva story. A $20,000 maiden claimer who has risen to Grade 3 winner in the Sam F. Davis, he’s the horse for the course in this field. He also seemingly relished the added distance of the Sam F. Davis and another effort close to that performance likely puts him in the winner’s circle. The question is, while he’s obviously improved, is he a bounce candidate? One could easily see this race setting up as a battle between the top two contenders in the stretch, and it might come down to who gets first jump and who has better position.
Warrior’s Reward looks like a horse worth considering underneath at very generous odds. The son of Medaglia d’ Oro has run well in his last two efforts, including a decent performance against the impressive Dunkirk last out at the allowance level over at Gulfstream. Trainer Ian Wilkes might have himself a live one here.
Musket Man has run well against and even defeated General Quarters in recent memory, and did so over this surface. He’s been training consistently well all year, so there’s no reason to anticipate a significantly decreased performance.
Other horses who look worthy of consideration include Bear’s Rocket (possible pace factor), Sumo (who busted out a 96 Beyer breaking from the 10 hole in the Sam F. Davis), and Nowhere to Hide (Nick Zito’s sneaky recent maiden grad who has been getting better with each start).
I’ll play Hello Broadway for the win. I like Warriors Reward, Musket Man, and General Quarters underneath, with Sumo and Nowhere to Hide and Bear’s Rocket rounding out the trifecta. Sadly, there doesn’t appear to be a 10 cent Superfecta available, more’s the pity.
The Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs this Saturday kicks off the Road to the Roses challenge, and it looks like we’ve got a good one. Contentions run deep as trainer Ken McPeek sends out Free Country to do battle with Atomic Rain, A.P. Cardinal, Musket Man, and a field of 7 other contenders all attempting to garner much needed graded stakes earning en route to the 2009 Kentucky Derby. The field sets up like this:
#1 Medaglia d’Onore (D. Centeno/Jamie Sanders) 20/1
#2 General Quarters (J. Lopez/Mark Miller) 8/1
#3 Player’s List (A. Cox/Wayne Rice) 50/1
#4 Mitchell Park (L. Gonzalez/Roy Lerman) 20/1
#5 Atomic Rain (J. Velazquez/Kelly Breen) 7/2
#6 Cliffy’s Future (P. Lopez/Darrin Miller) 10/1
#7 Free Country (K. Desormeaux/ Kenneth McPeek) 3/1*
#8 A.P. Cardinal (J. Bravo/Kiaran McLaughlin) 8/1
#9 Musket Man (J. Lezcano/Derek Ryan) 9/2
#10 Sumo (R. Douglas/Graham Motion) 12/1
#11 Top Seed (R. Allen Jr./ Michael Trombeta) 6/1
Free Country and Atomic Rain are familiar foes, having locked horns in the stretch last out in a Gulfstream Park allowance race going 1 1/8 miles. Atomic Rain was involved up front in a pace duel that day and was able to dig in and hold on for a close second, beaten only by a neck by Free Country. I’m not sure if Free Country will get the same pace setup today, as it looks like Atomic Rain could have things a bit easier on the front end if he’s able to get away. Might this set things up for a reversal of fortunes? Only time will tell.
A. P. Cardinal is an improving son of A.P. Indy that has progressed upwards on the Beyer scale in his last three races. On paper he’s a shade below the top contenders, but it’s tough to count an improving runner for the Kiaran Mclaughlin barn out of a contest like this. Taking a look at the competition he’s been facing in each of his last three races, you notice the names Vineyard Haven, Old Fashioned, and Danger to Society. I expect an improved performance out of A.P. Cardinal on Saturday, but I’ll take a wait and see approach before predicting a victory.
Musket Man is an interesting and undefeated runner for trainer Derek Ryan. Clearly he fits with this field as a legitimate contender based on his recent Beyer figure of 92 in the Pasco. He seems to like the track at Tampa, but today he’ll be asked to go significantly farther than his career long of 7 furlongs. He’s been training well and figures to be right there turning for home if he can stalk effectively and stay within striking distance of Atomic Rain.
Two other horses worth considering in this field are General Quarters and Top Seed. Genearal Quarters ran second to Musket Man last out and also has a close second to Top Seed two races back. He’s a Sky Mesa colt, so he ought to be able to stretch out for the distance of the Sam F. Davis. Top Seed would be a much stronger contender if he hadn’t drawn the extreme outside, but do note that he prevailed from the 12 hole last out on this track, meaning he can’t be left out of the equation.
I’m going to go with the Ken McPeek runner, Free Country for the win. McPeek has had some down luck lately, losing potential Derby threat Danger to Society to Rick Dutrow after finishing 7th in the Holy Bull earlier this month. Remember that this is the guy credited with finding Curlin. McPeek has had a smashing season so far in his return to training, and part of me would simply like to see him get a legitimate Derby hopeful on the right path by prevailing here in the Sam F. Davis. You won’t hear me argue, however, with anyone who decides to take Atomic Rain for the win, for as I mentioned earlier the pace may be more favorable to him today.
Underneath I’ll cover Atomic Rain, Top Seed, and A. P. Cardinal. I’ll add in General Quarters and Musket Man for show.
$1 Trifecta: 7/5,8,11/2,5,8,9,11 ($12)
In the other major prep of the day covered in the Road to the Roses, I like Chocolate Candy to continue his march on the Derby trail by prevailing in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate.
War Pass, sent off as the 1/9 favorite, finishes dead last in the Tampa Bay Derby
What happened to War Pass today? That’s going to be the question reverberating around the world of thoroughbred horse racing for quite some time. On Saturday the decorated champion drew into what appeared to be a relatively easy assignment in the Grade 3 $300,000 Tampa Bay Derby. It seemed to be a foregone conclusion that he would handle the extra distance and second turn of the 1 1/16 mile event and reaffirm his status as the top 3 year old colt in the nation heading into the final weeks before the 2008 Kentucky Derby the first Saturday in May. Instead, he wound up finishing an unthinkable dead last, leaving many standing in disbelief at the end of the race.
Indeed, with War Pass finishing out of the money, the show payouts on winner Big Truck and on place horse Atoned were higher than the win/place payouts. Big Truck returned $16.40 for the win, $5.80 for place, and a whopping $25.20 for show. Atoned returned $6.60 for the place and $27.80 for show. My heart goes out to bridge jumpers everywhere on a day like this. Big Truck cleared the 1 1/16 miles distance in 1:44.25
As many of you know, I’ve been asking questions about whether War Pass would be able to handle the distance the entire year. At times I’ve taken a lot of flak from people who would just as soon hand the Triple Crown to the colt. I’m not sure exactly what happened on Saturday, but it sure didn’t look like he appreciated the ground or the turn. He seemed to be done by the 5/16 pole.
From the start the race didn’t go War Pass’s way. Actually, trouble seemed to be brewing even before the race as he wasn’t exactly calm going into the gate. Even in the post parade I didn’t think he looked as impressive as I had remembered before. War Pass got knocked around a bit by Gentleman James and Make Me Zach after the start, and they surprisingly got to the lead.
At that point War Pass seemed somewhat content to attempt to rate just off the pace setters. However, as the field entered the second turn, things started to go wrong. War Pass seemed to not be responding to the calls of jockey Cornelio Velasquez for more. He seemed flat and empty. It was almost like an impostor were in his place as we’d never seen him look so un-War Pass like before.
If Nick Zito and company were getting sick of the questions about War Pass being able to handle the even more demanding distance of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont, then he’s not going to like what happens now. I think many folks will be willing to forgive the effort if it turns out he had any physical problems (nothing has been reported as of this writing) or if he’s able to bounce back in the Wood Memorial or another major prep race.
At this point though the defeat of War Pass has to make Pyro the consensus top choice for Kentucky Derby favorite. The Steve Asmusseen trainee has rattled off impressive wins in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby while War Pass has toyed with Allowance company around one turn and faded to finish last in his first true route test of the year.
Don’t forget to pay attention to Big Truck and Atoned in what was actually a pretty good finish to the Tampa Bay Derby. Atoned might’ve needed this race and looks capable of running a big one next time out. Big Truck has been moving forward steadily now and deserves being mentioned as a contender. After all, he can now claim he has defeated War Pass. Let anyone else who can make such a claim raise their hand (or in this case, hoof). What an unbelievable turn of events to kick off the racing weekend. What’s going to be difficult now is to try and figure out where War Pass will fall to in my Road to the 2008 Kentucky Derby rankings, which are due to be updated tomorrow night. It looks like we’ve got some things to think about is all I’ll say for the moment.
The 2007 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile champion, and widely regarded top 3-year-old colt in the nation, War Pass, returns to action on Saturday in the $300,000 Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby. The Nick Zito trainee and son of Cherokee Run has seen his top rival, Pyro, gaining on him in many of the preliminary Kentucky Derby wagering pools and expert rankings.
If their has been one steady knock that Nick Zito has had to listen to about his super-colt, it’s been distance. Saturday we’ll get our first chance to see him do his thing around 2 turns in the 1 1/16 miles Tampa Bay Derby. I know I’ve been a bit critical at times of the colt and have not hidden the fact that I’d prefer to find someone who won’t be favored the first Saturday in May to cheer for, but let’s be honest, this horse simply looks amazing and indeed unbeatable at times. In fact, in my mind Pyro is the only one with a prayer of a chance to beat him in the Derby. It’s really that simple.
I fully expect War Pass to thrash the field in the Tampa Bay Derby, although the final win margin may not be as impressive as folks are expecting. That’s only because Zito and company know that the real prize is still over a month away, and that there’s no need to use up the colt now in a $300k prep race. I look for him to be on the gas early and to pull away from some of the expected pace pressure before entering the final turn.
Big Truck looks like the obvious second choice here, after finishing 2nd to Fierce Wind in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on February 16. The Barclay Tagg trainee has been quietly moving forward for some time, although I don’t think he has a chance at beating War Pass.
Make Me Zach and Atoned would be my choices to use underneath. There’s not going to be any value here today so perhaps we’ll just pass from a betting standpoint and simply watch with amazement as the likely favorite for the Kentucky Derby makes his case to be the unanimous #1 of his division on everyone’s Derby watch lists.
The field for the Tampa Bay Derby looks like this:
Z Humor, Turf War, and Golden Yank hit the line together in the Delta Jackpot on 12/7/07 at Delta Downs.(Coady Photography/ Nicole Walker)
When we last saw 3 year old colt Z Humor, he was hitting the finish line together with Turf War and Golden Yank in the $1 Million Delta Jackpot at Delta Downs. The photo finish revealed that Golden Yank was in third, with Z Humor and Turf War tied in a dead heat for first. Golden Yank’s connections appealed to the Louisiana gaming commission, but ultimately were denied credit for the win.
Saturday marks Z Humor’s return in the $200,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. The event has drawn a field of 9 horses, including Big Truck, and Smooth Air. The Sam F. Davis is an ungraded Stakes going 1 1/16 miles over the dirt at Tampa Bay Downs, but it is notable that the race has been taken by eventual Grade 1 winners Bluegrass Cat and Any Given Saturday in the last 2 years.
The race seems to be a 2 horse event to me when looking at it on paper. Z Humor sticks out thanks to decent efforts in Grade 1 races against the likes of Pyro and War Pass. Garrett Gomez keeps the mount and the Bill Mott trained colt should have a good showing against this field. Smooth Air appears to be the logical contender and could be right there with Z Humor just behind the leaders as they turn for home.
I’ll use both of them in the exacta and trifecta on top. Underneath I’ll toss in Wise Answer, Celtic Meal, and Big Truck.
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