It’s official. Owner Jess Jackson has announced that the talented and immensely popular filly Rachel Alexandra will not be running in the 2009 Belmont. This sets up perfectly for jockey Calvin Borel, who will now retake the mount of Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird in his quest for an all-Calvin Triple Crown. Sadly, for bloggers like me with a penchant for gratuitous military history references, this negates my ability to discuss the potential rematch between The Derby and Preakness winners as “June 6th, a date that will once again live in infamy” (which I’m fairly certain is an oxymoron considering that once something is truly “infamous”, it’s rather impossible to become infamous once again…you either are infamous, or your not, but I digress).
First, let me say that I tip my hat to Jess Jackson once again. You know that he wanted to showcase his filly in the Belmont, and it probably pains him to have to decide against running her. However, this move proves that he’s not just in this for fame and glory. Like I’ve said before, the man made all the right moves with Curlin, and once again he appears to be doing so with Rachel Alexandra. In fact, the only move he’s ever made that I’ve disagreed with is one in which he really had little choice anyhow; sending Curlin to Santa Anita to run in the ’08 Breeders’ Cup…and it’s important to note that he made the decision to send him for us, the fans, so that we would be able to see him on the sport’s biggest stage. In other words, while I had a hunch (and no doubt Jess did himself as well) that wouldn’t go well, one can certainly understand why the decision was made.
The decision to rest Rachel Alexandra has already sparked quite a bit of passionate discussion on the net. Whether it be Twitter, Facebook, or any other web application out there designed for such discussions, horse fans are talking. Of course, they’ve been talking longer than just today. The past few weeks being filled with opinions from one side of the spectrum to the other regarding Rachel, the Bird, and everything in between. What troubles me though is some of the recent discussion, and I’ll outline why.
The first genre of discussion that bothers me goes something like this:
- “I’m glad Rachel isn’t in the Belmont, she’s a filly and would’ve risked being hurt.”
Look, I totally sympathize with horse fans who don’t want to see anyone hurt. Nobody wants to see that. It’s not that concern that worries me so much as it is the hidden inference that somehow fillies are inferior to colts. Do we really need any further proof that this is simply not true (at least as a blanket statement)? They said the same thing about the Preakness, and then Rachel went out and dominated. I don’t recall hearing anyone in France being concerned that Zarkava was facing boys in the world’s richest turf race, the Arc de Triomphe. How’d that one turn out? How about Goldikova last year in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile? And is there anyone who really thinks after the Milady that Zenyatta wouldn’t thrash the California boys at Hollywood, Santa Anita, or Del Mar? I just don’t get it. Surely not all fillies are created equal, so when you’ve got one who is clearly heads and shoulders better than most runners on the planet why should she be held back? Because she’s a “she”? See, I worry sometimes that folks are masking latent sexism behind a thin veil of legitimate concern over injuries/well being. The truth of the matter is that anyone at anytime can get hurt. If we apply this logic across the board, then clearly following Barbaro’s injury we should have stopped all colts from running as well.
The next line of comments goes something like this:
- “I’m going to be soooo mad if Mine That Bird wins the Belmont, because that will mean Rachel robbed us of a Triple Crown!”
Huh??? I almost have to throw up in my mouth a bit when I hear this. Almost. Do people even think before they speak? She “robbed” you of a Triple Crown? For starters, let’s not forget that the Belmont hasn’t been run yet, so hold your horses (no pun intended) on anointing Mine That Bird even a theoretical Triple Crown winner. Da’ Tara, Birdstone, and Rags to Riches come to mind in recent memory as clear cut examples of why you never assume a Belmont’s outcome before it’s official. More importantly though, did Rachel Alexandra somehow cheat in the Preakness? Did I miss something? I’m just trying to understand how she “robbed” anyone of anything? If she “robbed” anyone, it was other network programs, as television ratings for the Preakness were through the freakin’ roof. You’d think people would be smart enough to see a star who is exactly what we need when they see one, but apparently not.
Didn’t Mine That Bird have a fair shot to beat her in the Preakness? Didn’t Rachel have to break from the extreme outside, set fairly fast splits being contested all the way, and then hang on in the stretch to win? That’s not robbing, that’s earning, and last time I checked, a horse needs to EARN a Triple Crown. That’s what makes it special. Otherwise we might as well just poll the public for who they’d like to see win and simply declare that horse the winner without ever racing. I can see Dennis Green now, banging on a table and telling reporters to “crown their asses, then!” when asked questions concerning the Chicago Bears. Same goes here. You want a Triple Crown so bad that you’re angry when a horse legitimately defeats a hopeful? Then crown their asses before the race and don’t even bother running.
Also, if I may sidestep for just a gosh darn moment…..where the hell were these people in ’07 when Rags to Riches came out of nowhere to “rob” Curlin??? That was MUCH closer to grand larceny than anything Rachel’s done.
When pressed, most of these people reference the fact that we “haven’t had a Triple Crown winner in 30 years” and that they’d “like to live to see one.” Oh really? Wow…didn’t realize they were so into history. Forgive me, then. It’s just that, well, you know…there are still plenty of folks alive who remember watching and wagering on the last Triple Crown winner. On the other hand, how many folks have you run into out there that remember Nellie Morse in the 1924 Preakness? Yeah…didn’t think so. If you’re going to reference history, then at least acknowledge that 85 years is a hell of a lot longer than 3 decades to wait to see something happen. Then again, we do live in the age of “instant gratification”, more’s the pity.
Look, I’ve got nothing but respect for Mine That Bird now either. He’s a magnificent colt that we ought to see for years to come, considering he’s a gelding. It’s just that I refuse to see him as some victim of a heinous crime. I remember the cat calls from all the Curlin haters back in ’07. “Curlin got beat by a girl!” Yeah, well, so did Mine That Bird, and the girl that beat him wasn’t as fresh as the girl that beat Curlin (nor was Mine That Bird as worn down as Curlin was). Personally I don’t consider the “beat by a girl” thing to be anything but the most childish of equine put-downs, as it never seems to apply to the horses that were truly beaten by open lengths (i.e., did you ever hear anyone say “Tiago got beat by a girl!” or “Hard Spun got beat by a girl!” ? Nope, it was always directed at Curlin…hell, at least he was competitive against a girl. How far back were Hard Spun and Tiago in the ’07 Belmont by comparison?).
The last line of thinking that really grinds my gears goes like this:
- “Rachel was exhausted in the Preakness, there’s no way she could get the mile and 1/2 of the Belmont.”
When I hear things like this, I wish I was instantly teleported to a face to face handicapping tournament, winner take all, as obviously these folks think that every race is totally equal and not unique at all.
Yes, Rachel was struggling a bit at the end of the Preakness. How that is supposed to directly translate into defeat or an inability to get the distance of the Belmont is beyond me. Are the two races supposed to be apples to apples? Have folks even considered that the entire pace setup could not only be completely different between the two races, but also explains rather clearly why Rachel was a bit tired at the end of the Preakness?
Consider the following stats. Here are the opening 1/4 mile and 1/2 mile splits between the ’08 Belmont and the “09 Preakness. Something should jump off the page at you regarding the half mile times in particular, even if you’ve never so much as thought about pace handicapping:
- opening 1/4 – :23.82
- opening 1/2 – :48.30
- opening 1/4 mile – :23.00
- opening 1/2 mile – :46.25
See that? Two full seconds faster in the opening half mile of the 2009 Preakness! And why was that exactly? Well, several reasons. In the 2008 Belmont, Da’ Tara got an easy lead. Even on the race replay you can hear the call that the opening half mile was set in a “sensible” time of :48.30. That’s what happens when you have a longer race, and a loose horse on the lead. The pace of longer races tends to be slower than that of shorter races, hence why horses who show speed routing can’t always be trusted to do the same when sprinting, whereas horses that show speed sprinting often will show similar (if not improved) speed routing.
In the ’09 Preakness, Rachel had to earn it every step of the way. She broke from the 13 hole, and had no choice but to gun for the lead or risk being hung wide on the turns. Anyone familiar with playing the Maryland tracks knows full well how vitally important positioning on the turns, and in particular the first turn, can be. Of course, Big Drama happened to be along the rail, and likewise was in a situation where he had to go for it right out of the gate. The result was a speed duel. Typically, if you see two horses eyeball to eyeball with each other through hotly contested opening fractions, you can expect them to start coming back to the rest of the field in the stretch, thus opening up for an off-the-pace runner. It’s a testament to Rachel Alexandra’s class that this did not happen, and that the only runners able to make any headway against her were Mine That Bird, and to a lesser extent Musket Man. That’s what made her win so impressive. It shouldn’t have happened. Most horses would not have pulled it off. In fact, her opening splits were closer to those set by Xchanger and Flying First Class in the ’07 Preakness (1/4 in :22.83, 1/2 in :45.75), and obviously neither of them wound up in the Superfecta.
So yes, she was struggling towards the end, but what exactly was she supposed to look like? Even Chip Woolley, trainer of Mine That Bird, admitted that his colt was fresher by virtue of only really having to run the last 3/8 of a mile of both the Derby and the Preakness. I’m sorry that she didn’t look as majestic as Big Brown in the ’08 Preakness, but she had a bit of a saltier field and a tougher trip to overcome. Eyes can be deceiving though. Again, apples to apples this most certainly is not.
Each race is unique, and one must resist the urge of looking at the ’09 Preakness replay and simpliifying by saying “yup, in another furlong Mine That Bird would’ve caught her.” Would he? Perhaps, but then again the entire race would’ve been different. The only thing you can be assured of is that if THAT EXACT running of the Preakness happened again, but went a furlong further, that perhaps Mine That Bird would have caught her. That’s it. That’s the only certain conclusion one can make. The rest is pure speculation or opinion….not that their’s anything wrong with either, necessarily, it’s just that when they are repeated as fact folks can get the wrong ideas. I’m just saying keep that in mind when you hear folks spouting off (and yes, that includes me and indeed this rant right here).
Similarly, we must resist the urge of DEMANDING a rematch between either Rachel and The Bird in the Belmont, or Rachel and Zenyatta at some later date. Would those races be exciting? Most definitely! But we can’t reduce ourselves to the plebians in the Colliseum, demanding that Caesar show us another round of gladitorial combat. Let the horsemen do what’s right for the horses, and let’s hope that we’re lucky enough to see them in their prime again before they are gone.
In conclusion, here’s hoping Rachel enjoys her much deserved time off. Rest up, baby girl. There are big plans for you both this summer and beyond. Personally, I’m hoping Jess sends her to Saratoga. I can think of no other track more befitting of an appearance by the queen herself. Now, if we could just get Zenyatta’s people to come face her…. 
RECENT COMMENTS