Mine That Bird shocks the world!

2 05 2009

Jockey Calvin Borel (Bo-RAIL) has done it again, exploding up the rail in the 135th  Kentucky Derby to shock the world by winning the nation’s biggest race at odds of 50/1.  The win completes a perfect sweep of the both the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby, and both in amazing style.  Mine That Bird was 50/1 on the tote board going to post, and goes down as the second longest priced horse to win the Kentucky Derby in it’s storied history.

50/1!!!!!!  Are you kidding me?  In the Derby?  Wow, guess we just missed “the next Giacomo.”  Watching Calvin celebrate afterwards all one can wonder is how one man can dominate one lane at one track so thoroughly as Calvin Borel does at Churchill Downs along the rail?  It is absolutely astonishing.  Twice now in the last 3 years he’s made the same move and won the Derby.   

On Friday we had visions of Secretariat in the ’73 Belmont as Rachel Alexandra throttled the Oaks field by over 20 lengths. On Saturday we were treated to visions of Street Sense in the ’07 Derby, as Calvin  Borel  did what he always does.  He found the rail, made his move, and then continued to to extend throughout the stretch.  Mind That Bird opened up a final margin of 6  3/4 lengths and completed the 1 1/4 mile distance of the Derby in 2:02.66.

How on earth did this happen?   A son of  Birdstone, Mine That Bird had never broken the 90 Beyer Speed Figure level.  In fact, he had barely broken the 80′s.  Talk about a stunning improvement. Exiting back to back less-than-inspiring performances in ungraded stakes at Sunland Park, for goodness sakes, he was less than an afterthought.   I ‘ll be honest.  I had him ranked as the third from lowest contender in this field.  That’s right - 3rd from last.   Never saw that coming in a million years. The only runners I had behind him were Atomic Rain (who finished 16th), and Flying Private (who finished last).  Of course, the horse I did have finished 18th (Friesan Fire).  Sigh.

Yet Mine That Bird, somehow, was clearly the best.  Once you could see him making his move along the rail, all you could think of was “wait, who the heck is that along the rail?”  As if we even needed to ask.  It could only be one man, and just like he did aboard Street Sense in 2007, he did again in 2009.  

In the “race behind the race”, an interesting battle was happening that many racing fans may have missed.  Pioneer of the Nile, Musket Man, and Papa Clem battled it out and ultimately rounded out the superfecta, respectively.  Chocolate Candy and Summer Bird were another 6 lengths back from the top four. 

The final results with beaten lengths was as follows:

  • #8 Mine That Bird  —
  • #16 Pioneer of the Nile – 6  3/4
  • #2 Musket Man – 6 3/4
  • #7 Papa Clem – 7
  • #11 Chocolate Candy – 13
  • #17 Summer Bird – 13 1/4
  •  #9 Join in the Dance – 14 1/2
  • #10 Regal Ransom – 15
  • #1 West Side Bernie – 15 3/4
  • #12 General Quarters – 17 3/4
  • #15 Dunkirk – 19 1/4
  • #5 Hold Me Back – 20 3/4
  • #4 Advice – 21 1/4
  • #19 Desert Party – 22
  • #3 Mr. Hot Stuff – 22 1/4
  • #18 Nowhere to Hide – 35 1/4
  • #6 Friesan Fire – 42 3/4
  • #20 Flying Private – 44

Obviously the most disappointing of these was post time favorite Friesan Fire, who was beaten by over 40 lengths.  Most likely this is because I selected him once I Want Revenge was scratched.  My apologies to the Larry Jones camp.  Now I just hope he checks out okay without an injury.  Finishing 40 lengths back at his talent level is more than worrisome.

All of this makes the Preakness, just 2 weeks away, a more intriguing race. 

  • How many runners will be scared away from Mine That Bird?  
  • Was it the sloppy track? 
  • Was it some other factor that makes him vulnerable two weeks from now (and beyond)? 

I’m thinking many will be expecting a significant bounce off of that performance.  The Preakness, due to it’s reduced field size of 12, tends to be a better barometer in terms of absolute talent. 

Speaking of which…we  went into the week thinking we had a fairly good handle on who the best 3-year-olds in the country were.  We leave with Rachel Alexandra and Mine That Bird  seemingly on a level of their own.  Hats off to the connections of each.  

Is there any chance we might see them in the Preakness two weeks from now at Pimlico?   We can only dream.  What a matchup that would be.


Comments : 37 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , ,
Categories : Churchill Downs, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Mine That Bird, Papa Clem, Pioneer of the Nile, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

I Want Revenge scratched from the Kentucky Derby

2 05 2009

Waking up this morning I expected the euphoria surrounding Rachel Alexandra’s performance in the Oaks to still be the story on everyone’s lips.  Instead now we’ve got the scratch of the Derby favorite, I Want Revenge, on Derby morning of all days, to contend with.


http://blog-beb.thoroughbredtimes.com/2009/05/i-want-revenge-scratches-from-kentucky.html

Reportedly, it’s due to ankle swelling/lameness.  Wow.  Just when it looked like things were getting better, now we’ve lost the morning line favorite on Derby morning.  Unbelievable.  And literally just hours from when I made him our top selection.  I must be the absolute kiss of death.  My heart goes out to jockey Joe Talamo, who I’m sure thought he had  a huge chance to fulfill the dream of winning a Kentucky Derby. 

I’m starting to feel personally responsible for Curlin’s “trip from hell” in the ’07 Derby.  That makes 3 straight top choices for  me that have either run their worst races (Curlin in ’07 and Colonel John in “08), or have not even made it to post (I Want Revenge….and I suppose you could add to that Quality Road, who was my top choice entering the week).  That’s two top choices for the Derby I’ve lost on freakin’ Derby week!   I’m almost scared to name a new choice.

Since I must though, I shall. 

Friesan Fire…let’s send Larry Jones out a champion.  I’m torn between him, Dunkirk, and Pioneer of the Nile, but that’s where I’ll wind up.  There is no better tandem, for my money, with three-year-olds than Larry Jones and Gabriel Saez.  Go baby, go!  :)

So what else do we do?  Well, I guess you can upgrade Pioneer of  the Nile significantly, considering he’d defeated I Want Revenge on the synthetics.  I think Papa Clem becomes more of a player now at long odds as well.  I’d spread now to cover that one in the exotics, along with Friesan Fire, Dunkirk, and Pioneer. 

Looking  on the positive side of things.  Supporters of Friesan Fire, Pioneer of the Nile, Dunkirk, Papa Clem, Desert Party, Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy, and Regal Ransom (I think that covers the selections I’ve seen out there) just got one less potentially world class foe to deal with, adding to the likes of Quality Road, The Pamplemousse, Old Fashioned,  and Square Eddie, just to name a few.  And of course, now we know for certain that the top 3-year-old in the country ran yesterday in the Oaks.  That’s got to make things a bit easier for them.

But seriously…can this be “it?”  Can we not have any more setbacks? 

The picks of many are in chaos.  Hopefully we can salvage some value out of that chaos and capitalize on the instability of opinions.


Comments : 10 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , ,
Categories : Churchill Downs, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby, Papa Clem, Pioneer of the Nile, Triple Crown

Derby post positions set

29 04 2009

By now virtually everyone has seen the post position draw for the 2009 Kentucky Derby on Saturday, or at least dug a bit to find out where their favorite horses are lined up.  Here we’ll take a quick run through the field and see if we can’t glean any information about the way the chips have fallen thus far.  Like many of you, I’m still going back and forth in my mind about how exactly this race will setup and who my final pick will be. 

We’ll start with the inside runners:

  • #1 West Side Bernie (30/1)
  • #2 Musket Man (20/1)
  • #3 Mr. Hot Stuff (30/1)
  • #4 Advice (30/1)
  • #5 Hold Me Back (15/1)

A grouping of veritable longshots highlight the inside quarter of the field for the Derby.   The two horses I think had the worst of luck in the post draw were West Side Bernie and Musket Man.  Each will probably have to go a bit quicker than they’d like to now by virtue of being stuck along the rail in a 20 horse field.  Remember that the 2 hole was doom for as talented a colt as Curlin back in ’07.   It’ll take a bit of racing luck for these guys to be able to maneuver through the field from these spots.  Winstar Farms has the trio rounding out the inside runners with longshots Mr. Hot Stuff, Advice, and Hold Me Back.  If nothing else, they ought to get ground saving trips, which is probably what these guys needed anyway. 

Moving onto the inside-middle quarter of the field:

  • #6 Friesan Fire (5/1)
  • #7 Papa Clem (20/1)
  • #8 Mine That Bird (50/1)
  • #9 Join in the Dance (50/1)
  • #10 Regal Ransom (30/1)

Friesan Fire headlines this gorup of colts and will no doubt look to break well, and then rate off of the early speed, which could come from either side of him.  It’s worth remembering that Eight Belles, the last and perhaps most famous Derby runner for trainer Larry Jones, broke from the 5 hole in the 2008 Derby and ran well to finish 2nd to Big Brown before collapsing after crossing the finish line.  Given that Friesan Fire blewout a strong workout earlier in the week, he’d appear to be primed and ready for a big performance, and I see no need to be concerned by the post draw.  Papa Clem also drew interestingly in the 7 hole.  My 5-year-old always picks the #7 horse (his favorite color being orange), so no doubt he’ll wind up on some of our tickets.  Longshot Join in the Dance won the lottery for the post draw and selected first, opting for the 9 hole, which just happens to be the jersey number worn by one of his owners, Rashard Lewis of the NBA’s Orlando Magic.   Regal Ransom deserves some mention from me here as well as indications are that he looks very good coming off of his UAE Derby victory in Dubai back in March.  Earlier I had anticipated him to be part of the expected pace, and perhaps even on the lead early on, but from this post position I’d expect him to rate off the leaders and do more of a stalking style and look to make a middle move somewhere around the time the field enters the final turn.  He’s a longshot at 30/1 that I think deserves to be closely scrutinized in the post parade as he may have more of a chance than his odds would suggest.

Now on to the outer-middle quarter of the field:

  • #11 Chocolate Candy (20/1)
  • #12 General Quarters (20/1)
  • #13 I Want Revenge (3/1*)
  • #14 Atomic Rain (50/1)
  • #15 Dunkirk (4/1)

This is probably the group of runners that will warrant the most attention from handicappers by virtue of containing the morning line favorite, I Want Revenge, and two of the more popular horses amongst fans in Dunkirk and General Quarters.  Toss in Chocolate Candy, who gets whispered about in certain circles, and you can see how interesting this group becomes.   First things first, I think I Want Revenge got a great draw from the 13 hole.   He’ll probably have some speed on both sides of him (by virtue of Pioneer of the Nile being drawn in the outside quarter of the field), but should be able to get a decent trip from here.  That might be all he needs.   Then there’s Dunkirk.   What you can’t tell from just looking at this group is that immediately to his outside is Pioneer of the Nile.  It’ll be interesting to see how these two react to each other out of the gate as Pioneer of the Nile has a reputation for being a bit wild early on, and obviously Dunkirk is extremely lightly raced.  If all goes well at the break, this isn’t a bad spot for him at all.  If something does go wrong though, well, then the whole picture changes.  But that could really be said about any runner in this field.  I’m only mentioning it because I’m a bit worried the two of them might play bumper cars for the first few steps.  General Quarters and Chocolate Candy look well placed here as well.  I would think this is probably just about where their connections would want them placed for this race.  As for Atomic Rain,  well…I’m not really feeling it at the moment.  I guess it’s a good draw for him.  Honestly I’m not really focusing that much on him.

And finally, the outside quarter of the field:

  • #16 Pioneer of the Nile (4/1)
  • #17 Summer Bird (50/1)
  • #18 Nowhere to Hide (50/1)
  • #19 Desert Party (15/1)
  • #20 Flying  Private (50/1)

It’s an interesting mix of possible legitimate win contenders and absolute longshot bombs on the outside.  We’ve already mentioned Pioneer of the Nile when discussing Dunkirk in the previous grouping, so I’ll spare you the rehash.  He would appear to be the speed of the outside horses and just might find himself on the lead unless one of the inside runners decides to (or is forced to) gun it in the early going.  He’ll probably go quick enough to save as much ground as he can going into the 1st turn.  Summer Bird looked absolutely fantastic in the post parade last out and I’m anxious to see how he stacks up on Derby day in the paddock.  You get the feeling he’s in a bit over his head, but he could be worth a late show bet if he passes the eye test.  I’m not really seeing it from Nowhere to Hide and Flying Private.  Honestly these 50/1 shots make me wish we still had Old Fashioned, The Pamplemousse,  Quality Road, and Square Eddie here instead.  What a race that would be!  One horse who does intrigue me very much is Desert Party, and at 15/1 he won’t have to make much of an impression to warrant serious consideration.  I wouldn’t count him out of this fight.  Not at 15/1. 

So there you have it.  By no means does this constitute my final analysis….just some initial thoughts having looked over the post position draw.  We’ll be back tomorrow night with selections and analysis of the much anticipated Oaks Day card coming up on Friday, and then of course we’ll be jumping in full force for the run for the roses on Saturday.  

My question to all is how you see the post draw shaping up?   Any ideas on the pace scenario?  Like I mentioned before, I’m now off the idea that Regal Ransom will be a pacesetter.  Does that mean it could be Papa Clem setting the early pace, or one of the longer shots on the board?  Might Pioneer of the Nile have to show some speed from the outside as I suspect, or have I lost my mind with that thought?  As always, all opinions both welcomed and requested!  :)


Comments : 21 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,
Categories : Churchill Downs, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Papa Clem, Pioneer of the Nile

General Quarters wins the Toyota Blue Grass; heads for Kentucky Derby

11 04 2009

Historically, the phrase “General Quarters”  has been a call to action for naval combatants.  From Trafalgar to Jutland to Midway the order has gone out for men to stand fast at their battle stations and prepare to receive the enemy.  On Saturday afternoon a 3-year-old son of Sky Mesa proved himself worthy of the name General Quarters  as he battled out a victory in the Grade 1 Toyota Bluegrass at Keeneland.  Owner and trainer Thomas McCarthy wasn’t the only one richly rewarded on the day as General Quarters elated his supporters by returning $30.60 for the win en route to stamping his ticket to the 2009 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.

Results Chart

Join In the Dance set the early pace, with splits of :24.40 and :49.06.   At the top of the stretch, General Quarters was set down for his run, and quickly overtook the fading pace setter.  Hold Me Back,  Massone, and Terrain were all starting to move well late as well.  Unable to gain ground on General Quarters, they would wind up finishing behind him in that exact order, with Join in the Dance a distant 5th.  Teamed with jockey Eibar Coa for the first time in his career, General Quarters crossed the finish line  going 9 furlongs  (1 1/8  miles) in 1:49.26.  

The victory, General  Quarters third in 11 lifetime starts, gives him graded stakes victories over a route of ground on both conventional dirt and a synthetic surface having also won the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis  at Tampa Bay Downs over Musket Man.  He’ll run into that one again in the Kentucky Derby, along with all of the other top 3-year-olds in the nation.  I’m not sure how he stacks up against the better horses, but at this point I think you have to rank him around the area of Musket Man. 

 The two actually present an interesting handicapping challenge for players to ponder considering they’ve taken turns beating each other. Musket Man owns impressive victories in the Tampa Bay Derby and the Illinois Derby.  Considering the surfaces involved, those two races may turn out to be better true barometers for the Kentucky Derby than the Blue Grass was.  It’ll be interesting to see which one takes more play at the windows just 3 Saturdays from now in the Kentucky Derby.

I think we saw a colt who really grew up in a big way today, and his win adds depth to a 3-year-old division in need of another contender or two after The Pamplemousse was removed from the Derby trail due to injury.   His next challenge will be handling the obvious class test looming in the distance.   As Steven Crist recently pointed out in the Daily Racing Form’s Saturday edition, the prestige of the Toyota Blue Grass as a true Kentucky Derby prep has been called into question.  Only time will tell if this year’s winner will go on to add luster to a proud list of horses to have won on the Blue Grass, or will wind up closer to what we’ve seen in recent years with the likes of Monba (20th in the 2008 Kentucky Derby)  and Dominican (11th in the 2007 Kentucky Derby).  

I won’t even mention Bandini (19th in the 2006 Derby) since I actually liked him along with Barbaro that year.  In fact, Bandini might bet he last horse I actually cashed on at Keeneland, as my inability to pick a winner there continued with the handicapping picks for the Blue Grass.  So much for Charitable Man showing the world what Lemon Drops can do.   I actually had  General Quarters covered in my $.50 Pick 4 ticket,  but was knocked out two races earlier when Rebellion just missed getting past Eternal Star in the Grade 2 Commonwealth.   He looked good coming on late though.  Oh well.  On to better days then!  Here’s hoping one of you hit the win or the $1399 trifecta.


Comments : 11 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , ,
Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Keeneland, Kentucky Derby Trail, The Pamplemousse


Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.