Nad Al Sheba’s star studded day

27 03 2009

They’ve come from every continent in the world, and this Saturday at Nad Al Sheba many of the top thoroughbreds in the world will compete in a series of 6 graded stakes races, culminating  with the $6 million Dubai World Cup.  At this moment last year, I was nervously waiting out the final night before Curlin’s date with international destiny.  Now here we stand one full year later, and once again we cast our attention to the East and the lure of riches, fame, and glory.  While there is no Curlin in the World Cup this year, the lineup for the day in Dubai is beyond impressive.  It might as well be a mini Breeders’ Cup festival.  This, my friends, is the type of day that horse racing fans and handicappers the world over long for. 

Race 2:  The $1,000,000 Godolphin Mile (Grade 2) – 1 Mile

  • #6 Kalahari Gold 8/1
  • #4 Two Step Salsa 3/1*
  • #13 Gayego 7/2

We kick things off in the 2nd race of the day in the $1 million Godolphin Mile.  One of my early favorites from last year, Gayego, looms as a huge threat, but has drawn an outside post.  He’s also going to be stretching out to a mile again after romping in the Mahab Al Shimaal (G3) last out.   Two Step Salsa looks like his main competition on paper having picked up the services of jockey L. Dettori.  Another horse I thin has a big shot in here is Kalahari Gold for Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashin Al Maktoum.  Dijeer, on the the extreme outside, and Art of War also deserve consideration.  I’m going to make Kalahari Gold my top choice at 8/1 in a bit of an upset, but Id cover Gayego and Two Step Salsa as well if you’re wading into the pick 6 waters.

Race 3: The $2,000,000 UAE Derby (Grade 2) – 1  1/8 Miles

  • #5 Desert Party 1/1*
  • #11 Soy Libriano 10/1
  • #1 Regal Ransom 4/1

The UAE Derby provides the “prep fix” for us Kentucky Derby junkies, being the lone race on the card exclusive to three-year-olds (as well as possible grade 2 points in the Road to the Roses challenge).  Desert Party is the obvious choice here having toyed with competition last time out.  A win puts him firmly on the Derby trail, while a loss will likely cause his connections to think twice before shipping half way around the globe.  I don’t think there’s anyone in here who can beat him, but if an upset were to occur a likely candidate might be Soy Libriano from the outside.  He’s the lone entry in the field with a win at the 1 1/8 mile distance of the UAE Derby.  That’s got to count for something, right?   Regal Ransom play underneath in the exacta and trifecta wagering, along with Redding Colliery as they have both finished behind Desert Party in their last two races. 

Race 4: The $2,000,000 Dubai Golden Shaheen (Grade 2) – 6 Furlongs

  • #12 Indian Blessing 3/1*
  • #2 Big City Man 5/1
  • #7 Merchand d’Or  9/2

The Golden Shaheen is a tricky race to handicap for many U.S. players as it’s a 6 furlong sprint on a straight track.  That means we’ve no tricky turns to negotiate.   For that reason I expect the class of Indian Blessing to shine through.  I firmly beleive that 6 furlongs might be her best distance.  Ever since she lost the Acorn to Zaftig last year, I’ve been convinced that she was born to sprint, and so far she’s lived up to that billing.  This one should be quick, as there seems to be quite a bit of speed signed on.  Big City Man owns 4 victories at the 6 furlong distance and has run well at Nad Al Sheba giving him a bit of a “horse for the course” angle to consider.  He seems to always show up and run a big race and I see no reason to expect a change this weekend.  Marchand d’Or intrigues me a bit despite having not run well the last time he tried the turf to dirt angle.  He seemingly woke up the second half of last year and may have been entering this race on a 4 for 4 run had he not encountered a bit of trouble in the Hong Kong Sprint at Sha Tin last out.  Diabolocal, Force Freeze, and Lucky Quality all look useful underneath in the exotics.

Race 5: The $5,000,000 Dubai Duty Free (Grade 1) – 1  1/8 Miles (Turf)

  • #10 Archipenko 4/1*
  • #3 Vodka 10/1
  • #8 Balius 8/1

This might be the deepest field we’ll see all year.  One could make a case for virtually every runner in this field, and numerous longshots rate big chances to hit the board.  Needless to say, if you’re playing the Pick 6 this looks like the race to spread the deepest.  Ultimately I’m taking a stand against the morning line favorite, Kip Deville, as I’m not sure this is his best distance.  Yes, I know he’s exiting a victory going the same distance last out at Gulfstream against the likes of Court Vision, but I prefer him going a mile.  Archipenko is a horse I still cannot believe lost the Arlington Million last year.  He’s a better hrose than that, and proved as much by winning the Zabeel Mile over Vertigineux and Kalahari Gold (keep that in mind if my longshot wins the Godolphin Mile). Vodka is not the only female in the race, but she sure looks the best of them.  She had a horrible trip against Balius and Jay Peg in the Jebel Hatta (G2) last out and could turn the tables on them with a bit more racing luck.  Balius looks like a tough competitor in here with a big shot at long odds.  Like I said, deep field, so either go with your instincts here or spread deep.  Hell, if you can afford to, press the “All” button and hope for a bomber.  It could well happen here.  It’s actually tougher to come up with reasons why most of these runners can’t win than it is to come up with reasons why they can.  

Race 6:  The $5,000,000 Dubai Sheema Classic (Grade 1)  – 1  1/2 Miles (Turf)

  • #6 Youmzain 4/1
  • #1 Front House 6/1
  • #7 Purple Moon 6/1

We stay on the turf for the Dubai Sheema Classic, only we stretch out to a mile and a half this time.  Youmzain has amassed over $1 million more than any of the other competitors at the longer 1 1/2 mile distance.  This will mark his third attempt to reach the winner’s circle at Nad Al Sheba.  He’s been off for quite some time, but note that he did run second to Zarkava in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Grade 1) last October at Longchamp.   Zarkava woud likely crush this field, so a repeat performance puts him right in the hunt.  He’s also battled heads with the likes of Dylan Thomas and Duke of Marmalade, so he’s a proven commodity to say the least.  I’m not fond of his odds at 4/1, but he’s the top choice.  Front House and Russian Sage form a formiddable battery for South African based trainer Mike de Kock.  Front House is the more proven of the two at this distane.  It’s hard to believe you can get a horse like Red Rocks, who defeated Curlin in the Man O’ War last year at Belmont, at odds of 10/1, but he hasn’t looked nearly as good since that race. 

Race 7: The $6,000,000 Dubai World Cup (Grade 1) – 1  1/4 Miles

  • #4 Asiatic Boy 5/2
  • #10 Albertus Maximus 2/1*
  • #8 Casino Drive 6/1

I can’t help but get the feeling that Jess Jackson ought to drag Curlin out of retirement, even now just hours before the race, and send him to Dubai to show this field what a real champion looks like. Oh wait, hang on a second.  Curlin basically did that already having defeated many of these same faces last year in his record setting 7 3/4 length win.   No world beaters like that look entered here today, which oddly enough means we have ourselves a stronger betting race.  I’m seeing this one as a three horse race between the above mentioned contenders.  I give Asiatic Boy the slight nod, but to be honest I could easily see Casino Drive pulling the upset.  I’m a bit worried about the fact that Asiatic Boy doesn’t string consecuritve victories together, meaning he might be due for a defeat.  One other thing to keep in mind: At one point last year, Asiatic Boy was a perfect 5 for 5 at Nad Al Sheba.  Since then he’s gone 1 for 4.  Albertus Maximus is my U.S. play, hoping to keep a victory streak going here for the “red, white, and blue corner!”  My Indy and Well Armed deserve some consideration if they look good going to post.


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Categories : Casino Drive, Gayego, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Indian Blessing

Saturday Gulfstream picks

30 01 2009

Hot off an exciting Friday that saw Captain Candyman Can prevail in the Hutcheson (where highly touted Break Water Edison finished a disappointing 6th), Guflstream Park comes right back with an even more thrilling Saturday card that features the Grade 1 Donn Handicap, the Grade 3 Holy Bull, and the much anticipated debut of Barbaro’s little brother, Nicanor.  As if all of that were not enough, Gulfstream beckons horseplayers from all over the land with 10 cent superfectas and a much needed 50 cent Pick 4 sequence. 

For anyone in need, you can access a free copy of the Gulfstream past performances over at the home page for the TBA.

Race 7: The Grade 3 Holy Bull  (1 1/8 Miles)

  • #1 Bruce N Autumn (12/1)
  • #2 Danger to Society (5/1)
  • #3 Bear’s Rocket (20/1)
  • #4 Saratoga Sinner (12/1)
  • #5 El Crespo (12/1)
  • #6 Rockland (8/1)
  • #7 Stately Character (20/1)
  • #8 Idol Maker (6/1)
  • #9 Nowhere to Hide (8/1)
  • #10 West Side Bernie (3/1*)
  • #11 Beethoven (4/1)

Several horses who hope to figure prominently on the Kentucky Derby trail highlight the 20th running of the Holy Bull.  Beethoven and West Side Bernie, the likely favorites, have each drawn outside post positions for the two-turn route, and could be compromised by this development.  Might that set things up for a thief from the inside? 

From looking over the selections of the handicappers in the Saturday edition of the DRF, I see I’m not alone in boosting the chances of the promising Danger to Society.  He’s an intriguing son of Harlan’s Holiday who is undefeated in two starts.  While it’s tough to figure out just what quality of opponents he’s been facing, he could get a great trip here today stalking from off the pace.  I especially like that he’s got a victory under his belt at the demanding 9 furlong distance, something neither Beethoven or West Side Bernie can say. 

I consider myself enough of a Beethoven fan at the moment to anticipate that he’ll run well on Saturday.  He’s been flattered now with Captain Candyman Can’s win in the Hutcheson on Friday, as he defeated him last time out along with Giant Oak.  I think this makes Beethoven the class of the field and the obvious win candidate on paper.  My only problem with West Side Bernie is that he exits the Delta Jackpot, and we all know historically that race tends to be inflated in terms of class and worth. 

Another interesting runner to consider here on the bottom of exotic tickets is the Smarty Jones colt Rockland.  He’d have to step up big time to win here, and I don’t predict that happening, but it’s hard to knock his recent form.  True, he only stepped up to the lower allowance level last time out, but it’s still nice to see a Beyer improvement from 77 to 82 his first time against winners. 

Stately Character is another that warrants some consideration.  He offers great value at 20/1 and should be charging late if he gets something to run at.  Speaking of which, from a pace standpoint, this one does look a little curious.  I’m guessing Idol Maker and Bear’s Rocket should be a part of whatever is going on early on.   Danger to Society could be involved as well, or he could stalk.  Either way I think the pace setup is very favorable to him.  El Crespo is the x-factor here to me as it’s any-one’s guess how his recent turf form will translate to dirt in his first try over that surface. 

For my superfecta ticket, I’ll play Danger to Society for the win over Beethoven, West Side Bernie, and Stately Character.  I’ll add in Rockland and El Crespo underneath for show.  Rounding out the ticket I’ll add in Idol Maker and Bruce N’ Autumn for 4th.

2/7,10,11/5,6,7,10,11/1,5,6,7,8,10,11 ($6.00)

 

Race 9:  The Grade 1 Donn Handicap (1 1/8 Miles)

  • #1 Finallymadeit (12/1)
  • #2 Albertus Maximus (4/1)
  • #3 Anak Nakal (10/1)
  • #4 Bullsbay (8/1)
  • #5 A.P. Arrow (10/1)
  • #6 On Board Again (20/1)
  • #7 Arson Squad (3/1)
  • #8 Sir Whimsy (12/1)
  • #9 Great Hunter (15/1)
  • #10 Einstein (5/2*)

The Donn stacks up as a formidable feature race on the Gulfstream card. This is the kind of feature that would be the centerpiece of that crazy “Take Back Saturday” idea I’m always on about.  We’ve got Albertus Maximus, Einstein, and a very sharp looking Arson Squad all lined up to do battle.  Every runner in the race with the exception of Bullsbay has posted a 100 Beyer at some point in their career.  Want to know the crazy thing though?  I actually really like Bullsbay here as a value play.  I’ll explain more in a bit.

First, let’s look at the obvious.  The top two win candidates on paper have to be considered Einstein and Arson Squad.  Einstein gets the outside draw here, but he’s classy enough to overcome that.  I usually think of Einstein as more of a turf runner (as many do), but he’s showed that he can run competitively on the dirt, as evidenced by his win in the Clark Handicap and his 2nd place finish to eventual Horse of the Year winner Curlin in the Stephen Foster.   Even better for Einstein, 9 furlongs seems to be his sweet spot.  I think he’s got a big chance here, but the value likely won’t be much.  He’s a definite horse to cover in the exotics.

Arson Squad is another to keep an eye on.  If you’ve been following the mini-feud between Andy Beyer and trainer Rick Dutrow in the Daily Racing Form over Dutrow’s dramatically improved colt This Ones for Phil, you’re no doubt wondering “if Dutrow could do that with a career best 80 Beyer runner, what might he do with Arson Squad here?”  The answer is simple.  Don’t look for any dramatic 20 point increase, but this is clearly a horse in sharp form that is to be respected in this contest.  The one thing that worries me with him is that he’s seemingly gotten better with a few races under his belt following a layoff, and he’s been off since late November.  That being said, he certainly improved once entering Dutrow’s barn, and has been working pretty well in the mornings.  He’s another player with a big shot, but I’ll once again probably look elsewhere for value in the superfecta.

Albertus Maximus is probably going to wind up the 3rd choice on the tote board at post time, but there are questions with him as well.  He’s not exactly known for his true dirt form and is seemingly a better synthetic runner, although do note that he has a win and a place in two starts over the conventional surface.  He’s probably the hardest horse to get a read on in the entire field and could show up huge or be a huge bust. 

My upset special?  I’m going with the dark horse, the only guy not yet in the 100 Beyer club.  That’s right: Bullsbay.   I know, it may look like madness at first glance, but here me out on this.  First, he’s from trainer Graham Motion’s barn, who has always been one of my favorites.   Two races back he defeated a field that included Belmont Stakes winner Da’ Tara.  He got a good primer under his belt going 8 furlongs last out and raylling for 2nd place over the Gulfstream main track.  Lastly, he’s a Tiznow…and one that figures to offer some value on the board.  Make no mistake, I”m not necessarily predicting he’ll win here, as I’d expect either Einstein or Arson Squad do wind up in the winner’s circle.  I just think he’s got enough of a chance here to be a decent value play.  Especially in the superfecta. 

4/2,7,10/1,2,3,7,10/1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10 ($8.40)

 

As for Nicanor’s debut?  I’m going to sit and watch this one.  Don’t get me wrong, I’ll have a pick 4 ticket in play that will likely have him covered, but I’m not going to heap any expectations on the colt until we see what we have in him.  It’s enough for now that he’s in racing and that at least some of the same genes that went into Barbaro are back on the track.  Anything on top of that is gravy.   We’ve also got the Santa Monia at Santa Anita, but with Indian Blessing’s scratch that race got a lot less exciting.  Ventura all the way for what it’s worth. 

As always, be sure to check for late scratches and or changes.  Best of luck to everyone.


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Categories : Barbaro, Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail


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