Hot off an exciting Friday that saw Captain Candyman Can prevail in the Hutcheson (where highly touted Break Water Edison finished a disappointing 6th), Guflstream Park comes right back with an even more thrilling Saturday card that features the Grade 1 Donn Handicap, the Grade 3 Holy Bull, and the much anticipated debut of Barbaro’s little brother, Nicanor. As if all of that were not enough, Gulfstream beckons horseplayers from all over the land with 10 cent superfectas and a much needed 50 cent Pick 4 sequence.
For anyone in need, you can access a free copy of the Gulfstream past performances over at the home page for the TBA.
Race 7: The Grade 3 Holy Bull (1 1/8 Miles)
- #1 Bruce N Autumn (12/1)
- #2 Danger to Society (5/1)
- #3 Bear’s Rocket (20/1)
- #4 Saratoga Sinner (12/1)
- #5 El Crespo (12/1)
- #6 Rockland (8/1)
- #7 Stately Character (20/1)
- #8 Idol Maker (6/1)
- #9 Nowhere to Hide (8/1)
- #10 West Side Bernie (3/1*)
- #11 Beethoven (4/1)
Several horses who hope to figure prominently on the Kentucky Derby trail highlight the 20th running of the Holy Bull. Beethoven and West Side Bernie, the likely favorites, have each drawn outside post positions for the two-turn route, and could be compromised by this development. Might that set things up for a thief from the inside?
From looking over the selections of the handicappers in the Saturday edition of the DRF, I see I’m not alone in boosting the chances of the promising Danger to Society. He’s an intriguing son of Harlan’s Holiday who is undefeated in two starts. While it’s tough to figure out just what quality of opponents he’s been facing, he could get a great trip here today stalking from off the pace. I especially like that he’s got a victory under his belt at the demanding 9 furlong distance, something neither Beethoven or West Side Bernie can say.
I consider myself enough of a Beethoven fan at the moment to anticipate that he’ll run well on Saturday. He’s been flattered now with Captain Candyman Can’s win in the Hutcheson on Friday, as he defeated him last time out along with Giant Oak. I think this makes Beethoven the class of the field and the obvious win candidate on paper. My only problem with West Side Bernie is that he exits the Delta Jackpot, and we all know historically that race tends to be inflated in terms of class and worth.
Another interesting runner to consider here on the bottom of exotic tickets is the Smarty Jones colt Rockland. He’d have to step up big time to win here, and I don’t predict that happening, but it’s hard to knock his recent form. True, he only stepped up to the lower allowance level last time out, but it’s still nice to see a Beyer improvement from 77 to 82 his first time against winners.
Stately Character is another that warrants some consideration. He offers great value at 20/1 and should be charging late if he gets something to run at. Speaking of which, from a pace standpoint, this one does look a little curious. I’m guessing Idol Maker and Bear’s Rocket should be a part of whatever is going on early on. Danger to Society could be involved as well, or he could stalk. Either way I think the pace setup is very favorable to him. El Crespo is the x-factor here to me as it’s any-one’s guess how his recent turf form will translate to dirt in his first try over that surface.
For my superfecta ticket, I’ll play Danger to Society for the win over Beethoven, West Side Bernie, and Stately Character. I’ll add in Rockland and El Crespo underneath for show. Rounding out the ticket I’ll add in Idol Maker and Bruce N’ Autumn for 4th.
2/7,10,11/5,6,7,10,11/1,5,6,7,8,10,11 ($6.00)
Race 9: The Grade 1 Donn Handicap (1 1/8 Miles)
- #1 Finallymadeit (12/1)
- #2 Albertus Maximus (4/1)
- #3 Anak Nakal (10/1)
- #4 Bullsbay (8/1)
- #5 A.P. Arrow (10/1)
- #6 On Board Again (20/1)
- #7 Arson Squad (3/1)
- #8 Sir Whimsy (12/1)
- #9 Great Hunter (15/1)
- #10 Einstein (5/2*)
The Donn stacks up as a formidable feature race on the Gulfstream card. This is the kind of feature that would be the centerpiece of that crazy “Take Back Saturday” idea I’m always on about. We’ve got Albertus Maximus, Einstein, and a very sharp looking Arson Squad all lined up to do battle. Every runner in the race with the exception of Bullsbay has posted a 100 Beyer at some point in their career. Want to know the crazy thing though? I actually really like Bullsbay here as a value play. I’ll explain more in a bit.
First, let’s look at the obvious. The top two win candidates on paper have to be considered Einstein and Arson Squad. Einstein gets the outside draw here, but he’s classy enough to overcome that. I usually think of Einstein as more of a turf runner (as many do), but he’s showed that he can run competitively on the dirt, as evidenced by his win in the Clark Handicap and his 2nd place finish to eventual Horse of the Year winner Curlin in the Stephen Foster. Even better for Einstein, 9 furlongs seems to be his sweet spot. I think he’s got a big chance here, but the value likely won’t be much. He’s a definite horse to cover in the exotics.
Arson Squad is another to keep an eye on. If you’ve been following the mini-feud between Andy Beyer and trainer Rick Dutrow in the Daily Racing Form over Dutrow’s dramatically improved colt This Ones for Phil, you’re no doubt wondering “if Dutrow could do that with a career best 80 Beyer runner, what might he do with Arson Squad here?” The answer is simple. Don’t look for any dramatic 20 point increase, but this is clearly a horse in sharp form that is to be respected in this contest. The one thing that worries me with him is that he’s seemingly gotten better with a few races under his belt following a layoff, and he’s been off since late November. That being said, he certainly improved once entering Dutrow’s barn, and has been working pretty well in the mornings. He’s another player with a big shot, but I’ll once again probably look elsewhere for value in the superfecta.
Albertus Maximus is probably going to wind up the 3rd choice on the tote board at post time, but there are questions with him as well. He’s not exactly known for his true dirt form and is seemingly a better synthetic runner, although do note that he has a win and a place in two starts over the conventional surface. He’s probably the hardest horse to get a read on in the entire field and could show up huge or be a huge bust.
My upset special? I’m going with the dark horse, the only guy not yet in the 100 Beyer club. That’s right: Bullsbay. I know, it may look like madness at first glance, but here me out on this. First, he’s from trainer Graham Motion’s barn, who has always been one of my favorites. Two races back he defeated a field that included Belmont Stakes winner Da’ Tara. He got a good primer under his belt going 8 furlongs last out and raylling for 2nd place over the Gulfstream main track. Lastly, he’s a Tiznow…and one that figures to offer some value on the board. Make no mistake, I”m not necessarily predicting he’ll win here, as I’d expect either Einstein or Arson Squad do wind up in the winner’s circle. I just think he’s got enough of a chance here to be a decent value play. Especially in the superfecta.
4/2,7,10/1,2,3,7,10/1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10 ($8.40)
As for Nicanor’s debut? I’m going to sit and watch this one. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll have a pick 4 ticket in play that will likely have him covered, but I’m not going to heap any expectations on the colt until we see what we have in him. It’s enough for now that he’s in racing and that at least some of the same genes that went into Barbaro are back on the track. Anything on top of that is gravy. We’ve also got the Santa Monia at Santa Anita, but with Indian Blessing’s scratch that race got a lot less exciting. Ventura all the way for what it’s worth.
As always, be sure to check for late scratches and or changes. Best of luck to everyone.
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