Selections for Kentucky Derby Saturday

30 04 2010

After an amazing Friday that saw the valiant victory of Blind Luck catching Evening Jewel in the final stride at the wire in the Kentucky Oaks, attention now turns to the “greatest 2 minutes in sports” with the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.  Despite gorgeous weather on Friday storm clouds loom on the horizon for Saturday, prompting Churchill to already cancel morning workouts.

Obviously weather changes can cause havoc with handicapping selections posted a day in advance.  I make no apologies for the effects that  field decimating scratches may play with the picks that follow.

Before we begin though, let me just say this.  Typically I have fairly strong opinions going into the Derby.  This year, thanks to the injuries to horses like Odysseus, Endorsement, and of course Eskendereya – my opinions are nowhere near as strong as usual.  Complicating matters further was the odd post position draw that saw the top two contenders on the morning line – Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy – bookended on the extreme inside and outside, respectively.

Still, there’s only one Derby day each year, so without further adieu, let’s jump into the action. We’ll pick things up with the G3 Eight Belles (Race 6).

Race 6 – Grade 3 Eight Belles – 7 1/2 Furlongs

The opening stakes race of the day looks like a spot many will use as a single with Hot Dixie Chick.  There are a couple of horses capable of pulling the upset here, including the daughter of Indian Charlie breaking from the outside in the 7 hole, Visavis, and the horse drawn to her inside, Buckleupbuttercup.  Additionally, you’ve got the wily D. Wayne Lukas with Decelerator and the sneaky Rick Dutrow with Sister Resistor, who sports the kind of darkened form that should assure a good price on the board.  As much as I’d like a price to start off the day, I think this one turns out fairly obvious with Hot Dixie Chick getting the job done.

Selections:

  • #2 Hot Dixie Chick (1/1*)
  • #7 Visavis (4/1)
  • #1 Buckleupbuttercup (8/1)

Race 7: Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile – 1 Mile (Turf)

A fairly contentious field awaits for the 7th.  If you follow along here, you know that I’m a guy who has never met a Tiznow he didn’t like, and that makes Tizaqueena attractive here despite the short 5/2 price.  Hot Cha Cha would be no surprise to see in the winner’s circle as she may be peaking at the right point in time for this.  Perhaps the most intriguing entry is Fantasia, who competed against the likes of Stacelita and Rainbow View in Europe last year.  Her tune up last out was quite impressive, and with Leparoux aboard I think she has to be respected.  I’ll give Diamondrella a small shot here as well – as she may be setup well if the race comes up on soft turf as expected.

Selections:

  • #5 Tizaqueena (5/2*)
  • #3 Fantasia (5/1)
  • #6 Hot Cha Cha (3/1)

Race 8: Grade 1 Humana Distaff – 7 Furlongs

Informed Decision will likely attract much of the attention in the Humana Distaff, but count me among those concerned by the seasonal debut in which she was defeated by Dr. Zic and Dubai Majesty.  She’s going to be a very short price, but I don’t think she’s anywhere near as bulletproof from an exotic betting standpoint as Hot Dixie Chick is in Race 6.  I’m going to be playing Warbling here as my top play, who comes off three consecutive fairly strong performances and picks up the services of Ramon Dominguez.  Warbling is listed at 8/1 compared to 2/1 on Informed Decision – so it’s a value play all the way.  I may have loved Informed Decision in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last fall, but I’m not feeling as confident here.  You could honestly make a case for the entire field in the underneath positions of your exotics, even though I settled on likely pace player Dr. Zic,  so “…bet on who you will.”

Selections

  • #2 Warbling (8/1)
  • #3 Informed Decision (2/1*)
  • #1 Dr. Zic (9/2)

Race 9: Grade 2 Churchill Downs

Another interesting field awaits for the Churchill Downs Stakes. The theme for this race if your alive in the exotics is “Staying Alive.”  Several of last year’s top male sprinters have returned, including Munnings, Musket Man, and Kensei along with “now horses” like Wall Street Wonder, Warrior’s Reward, and Atta Boy Roy.  Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these win, so this looks like a race you’ve got to spread a bit on in the Pick 4 and Pick 6 sequences for some coverage.  My gut tells me that Wall Street Wonder and Warrior’s Reward are in the best shape right now, but I wouldn’t advise leaving any of the previously mentioned contenders off your tickets. Accredit is another you have to keep an eye on – especially if the race comes up sloppy.  I’ll be covering 3, 7, 9, 12, and 13 in my Pick 4 wager, if that’s any indication.

Selections:

  • #7 Warrior’s Reward (4/1)
  • #3 Wall Street Wonder (12/1)
  • #11 Kensei (10/1)

Race 10: Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

Another race with an opportunity to select a martial sounding horse.  I’ve already taken Warbling and Warrior’s Reward in the preceding races, so it’s probably no surprise that I’m on Battle of Hastings in the Woodford Reserve.  The son of Royal Applause hasn’t found the winner’s circle since last July, but he’s a fighter who is making the ever-intriguing 3rd start since his last layoff.  I’m also a Court Vision fan, so I’ve got to give him a chance as well.  Blues Street is another one I think you have to consider coming off 4 straight victories.  The x-factor of the race?  How about Loup Breton?  His form was darkened last out, but prior to that he seemed to be on his way to becoming fairly useful.  As for fan favorite General Quarters?  I’d use him underneath, but not on top.

Selections:

  • #5 Battle of Hastings (5/1)
  • #3 Court Vision (9/5*)
  • #7 Blues Street (6/1)

Race 11: Grade 1 Kentucky Derby  - 1 1/4 Miles

Well, here we are folks. If you’re a racing fan, you think about this moment 365 days a year – and now it’s here once again.  Twenty horses…$2 million on the line in purse earnings…a lifetime of fame, glory, and honor.  In just a few short hours, a 3-year-old will stamp themselves firmly atop the division by winning the marquee race of the year.  Who will it be?

Because of the anticipated forecast, I think you have to start with the horses in the lead.  Most likely that will include Line of David and Conveyance.  If these two hook up, they should cook each other – although in the slop speed horses seem to hang on just that little while longer to make them formidable.  Perhaps the horses with the best chances will be those coming from the next flight back?   There’s literally a half dozen horses you could anticipate being in such a position.

As for those with off-track pedigrees, many are focusing on Stately Victor, Awesome Act, and Mission Impazible.  I think all 3 of those horses make a lot of sense.  As long as Awesome Act can get the distance, he’d be my top play in the race.  That being said, there’s two pairs any contender must deal with to earn the honor of wearing the roses.

The first pair is the two morning line favorites; Lookin at Lucky breaking from the rail and Sidney’s Candy breaking from the extreme outside in the 20 hole.  I don’t think you can “toss” either of these safely, though many will do so in favor of a better price.  Trainer Bob Baffert summed up Lucky’s chances best when he said they were “screwed” if they didn’t break well.  I’m actually more concerned with Sidney’s post though, despite the fact that he should at least break cleanly without anyone to the outside.

The other pair are what I would term the x-factors; the filly Devil May Care and the horse who has seemingly stolen some of the Irish luck – Paddy O’ Prado.

We could go a million ways in this race.  At the end of the day I do think Awesome Act will be a force on the sloppy track, should that condition arise as expected.  Steve Haskin has noted the excellent off-track pedigree of Stately Victor, and by all accounts the colt has worked well enough to be considered in the mix.  Lastly, despite his seemingly turf/synthetic preference in his profile, I’m going to take a shot with Paddy O’Prado, who has worked well in preparation for the big show.

Like I said, ultimately I think Lucky and Sidney are the most talented – so play against them at your own risk - but from those post positions you won’t hear me argue with anyone who plays against them.  I’m leaving them out of my top selections below, but don’t think for a moment that I won’t have them in my picks somewhere.

Last but not least – you’ve got to to something with Super Saver, right? I mean, it is Calvin Bo-rail and from his post position draw he may well find himself in perfect position as the field begins the turn for home.

Drum roll, please…

Selections:

  • #16 Awesome Act (10/1)
  • #6 Stately Victor (30/1)
  • #11 Devil May Care (10/1)

Best of luck to everyone – and may all of your Derby wagers be signers!  :)


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Categories : Awesome Act, Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Saturday Selections – 7/18/09

17 07 2009

Another Saturday is upon us, and you know what that means…time for some weekend warrior picks.  This weekend we’ll weave our way through feature races at Colonial Downs, Delaware Park, Belmont Park, Arlington Park, and Hollywood Park.  Then, on Sunday, I’ll be headed out to Delaware Park for a chance to take in the Del Cap live, even if the race is being run sans Rachel.

Delaware Park – Race 7 – The Delaware Oaks (G2) – 1 1/16 Miles (3;57 ET)

  • #2 Bon Jovi Girl (3/1)
  • #7 Payton d’Oro (6/1)
  • #3 Livin Lovin (2/1*)

Whoa…we’re half way there.  WHOA whoa, livin’ on a prayer!  (sorry, couldn’t help myself)  :-)

We start things off with the 58th running of the Delaware Oaks.  Everyone loves a good rematch, and for Bon Jovi Girl and Payton d’Oro, this will mark the 3rd consecutive time these fillies have locked horns, with each runner splitting the previous races.  Can anyone say “rubber match?”

Bon Jovi girl has really started to turn things up a notch.  I first noticed this in the post parade of the Black Eyed Susan at Pimlico, when I tweeted that she “made quite an impression” in the paddock.  Out on the track she did not disappoint, but was unable to reel in Payton d’Oro.  Note that she was bumped at the start of that race.  She came back to Delaware to crush her rival in the Susan’s Girl, proving for all time that Bon Jovi Girl is a force in stakes races associated with the name “Susan.” She’s got the look of a very tough competitor here, and is the “horse for the course” play with a sensational 4 wins in 6 starts at Delaware (along with a place and a show finish).

Payton d’Oro is a fine filly in her own right, as evidenced by her triumphant march through the maiden, allowance, and stakes levels with 4 consecutive victories.  My guess is that she didn’t like the sloppy track she faced in the Susan’s Girl last out, so with a return to more preferable footing, she ought to be able to improve on that performance. She’s a Medaglia d’Oro filly, so you know you can’t count her out of any fight, and to be honest, 6/1 is not a bad price at all.  She’ll likely be the value play here and at such odds would be well worth a win wager, especially considering Larry Jones is involved.  Is there a better trainer in the nation when it comes to 3-year-old fillies?  Not for my money.

Livin Lovin is the runner to keep an eye on in the paddock.  She’s a Birdstone filly, so we’ll get to see offspring of the two hottest sires this year square off in a relatively evenly matched race.  She was 4th and only two lengths and change behind Gabby’s Golden Gal and Justwhistledixie, two very well regarded fillies who would likely crush this field, in the Grade 1 Acorn on Belmont Stakes day.  In other words  it would not be a surprise to see her in the winner’s circle. 

 

Belmont Park – Race 9 – The Jaipur (G3) – 6 Furlongs – Turf (5:17 ET)

  • #2 True Quality (3/1)
  • #3 Heros Reward (5/2*)
  • #4 Due Date (6/1)

I think it goes without saying that turf sprints are not my strong suit.  With that in mind, I’ve decided that I can’t take the obvious selection and play Heros Reward as my top choice.  It doesn’t mean I won’t have any money on him, as I likely will.  It’s just that my top choices ALWAYS get burned in turf sprints.  It’s like the curse of the Bambino.  The rulers of the heavens must not want me to prevail in contracted grass events.  So what’s a handicapper to do?  Well, when all else fails, look for the speed.

True Quality makes his turf debut in the 26th running of The Jaipur this Saturday.  Usually I’m not one to play first time turfers, and yes, I’ve paid the price at the window on numerous occasions for such hesitancy.  Call me a stubborn old mule, it’s just that I prefer to have some evidence I can bank on in the horse’s previous running lines.  I’m tossing that out the window with True Quality for two primary reasons.  First, the son of Elusive Quality is a proven commodity from a class perspective as evidenced by his Grade 2 victory in the General George Handicap at Laurel Park back in February.  Then, there’s the fact that he appears to be the lone speed of the field, meaning everyone else will have to catch him.

Obviously if someone is going to catch him, the likely candidate is Heros Reward.  The son of Partner’s Hero is the most proven grass commodity in the race and boasts 10 victories over the turf (including a pair of Grade 3 wins).  He’s been knocking heads with some good runners such as Mr. Nightlinger in his previous efforts, and it’s not hard to imagine him turning in a dominating performance on Saturday.  It’s a risky proposition to play against him, and to be honest of the odds stay where they are from the morning line (i.e., only separated by half a point from True Quality), then it won’t make much sense to take a risk in trying to beat him.  The whole key for Heros Reward would appear to be not letting True Quality get too far ahead in the early going.  He’s got to keep it a bit closer than he has in previous races. 

Due Date and Silver Timber both look very usable to me underneath for the exotic wagers.

 

Colonial Downs – Race 11 – The Virginia Derby (G2) – 1 1/4 Miles – Turf (5:59 ET)

  • #9 Battle of Hastings (4/1)
  • #4 Nicanor (7/2)
  • #10 Lime Rickey (8/1)

It’s amazing to me how it’s always the turf races that come up so deep.  In the older male division, we seemingly get some combination of Gio Ponti, Court Vision, and Cowboy Cal, not to mention worthy competitors like Better Talk Now, Wesley, and anything the Europeans decide to ship over.  Here we’ve got 10 3-year-old colts in the 12th running of the Virginia Derby, and once again it comes up as the type of race that anyone entered could win.

I settled with Battle of Hastings as top choice for a few reasons.  First, I need to get out of the way that I’m actually a direct descendant of a Norman cavalry commander named “Drago” who fought under William the Conqueror (aka “the Bastard”) at the Battle of Hastings in 1066.  He wound up settling lands in present day Scotland, and I like to think he may have commanded an ancestor of the Wallace clan from Braveheart fame (the Wallace family purportedly being descendants of Norman invaders, according to some sources). Obviously none of that has anything to do with the race at hand, but it’s an angle that is prominent in my mind whenever this guy races, so in the interest of full disclosure, I felt obliged to mention.  As for the horse in question, he strikes me as a very consistent type that you play against at your own peril.

Obviously most of the attention in this race will be focused on Nicanor.  I don’t think I even need to  mention why, but I’ll do so anyways.  He’s the much hyped brother of the beloved Barbaro. While he may have spent his career thus far in Barbaro’s shadow, his last two races have proven he’s something of a talented runner in his own right.  My only fears with him are that he’ll be overbet by virtue of his connections, and he’s been on the lead wiring the field in each of his two wins.  He’ll probably need to show a bit more versatility here, as this field has a good deal of zip signed on.  Everyone will be rooting for him, and if he wins it’ll make for a smashing headline.

Lime Rickey is my longshot play.  Call it a hunch bet, as I know his past performance lines aren’t the most impressive of the field.  It’s just that you’ve got to pay attention to Lemon Drop Kid offspring whenever they are stretching out (in this case to 1 1/4 miles), and you’ve always got to be wary of them suddenly making a fairly large leap forward progression wise as they mature.  Judging from some of his last efforts, he’s been right there.  The morning line of 8/1 is very generous and quite worth a play.

The same can be said for Affirmatif, a horse who has generated a fair amount of buzz in his first 4 races.  Like Lime Rickey, he’s at generous 8/1 odds, not bad for a runner who scored a 100 Beyer figure in his debut race.

 

Arlingont Park – Race 9 – The Arlington Oaks (G3) – 1 1/8 Miles (5:03 CT)

  • #1 C S Silk (5/2)
  • #2 Hot Cha Cha (8/5*)
  • #3 Always in My Heart (8/1)

We move to Arlington Park for the 30th running of the Arlington Oaks.  We’re only dealing with a field of 7 runners here, and I thought 4 of them had legitimate shots to wind up in the winner’s circle, including the above mentioned horses and #6 Peach Brew. 

Hot Cha Cha is the top choice, but the odds aren’t very attractive, so I’ll be looking to beat the chalk.  Hot Cha Cha may wind up proving the best, but I didn’t think there was quite enough in the past performances to take such low odds when better value presents itself elsewhere.  Not surprisingly, I wound up on the Medaglia d’Oro runner C S Silk.  C S Silk is rather intriguing as it’s hard to figure out what exactly this horse’s preferred surface is.  I think it’s safe to say it isn’t dirt, so this race over the synthetics could play into her hands.  She’s exiting a last out victory and has fired a bullet drill in the morning of July 9, so I’m going to guess that she’s ready for a prime effort.

Always in My Heart warrants a long look in the post parade as well, as you get the feeling this is a steadily improving daughter of Hennessy.  This will obviously be the toughest field she’s faced, but another move forward is not out of the question.  Likewise, as mentioned before, I think Peach Brew has to be left in the equation.

This may be a small field, but be careful here befor you tee up as this one appears to be more difficult than it may seem on first glance. 

 

Hollywood Park – Race 6 - The A Gleam (G2) – 7 Furlongs (3:30 PT)

  • #2 Coco Belle (3/1*)
  • #4 Silver Swallow (6/1)
  • #6 Lady Lumbejack (9/2)

We head out west to Hollywood Park, sadly for what may be one of the final times in the tracks history (apart from a brief 5 week meet later in the year).  The 55th running of the A Gleam denoting a long and storied tradition at Hollywood that in all probability will be run at one of the other California tracks in 2010. 

Coco Belle is the horse to beat here, and will be facing a distance (7 Furlongs) that she is unproven at thus far in her career.  She’ll likely be on the gas early on and will look to wire the field right out of the gate.  The only real threat to her running style should come from the Bob Baffert runner Cry and Catch Me breaking from the 7 hole.  If these two get locked up in a speed duel, it would obviously boost the chances of the off the pace runners. 

If the race does open up, suddenly Silver Swallow and Lady Lumberjack would be prime contenders.  Silver Swallow tends to leave herself a bit more to do in the stretch than Lady Lumberjack does, so take your pick between these runners if you’re trying to beat the lukewarm chalk.  Another horse to keep an eye on is Evita Argentina, who defeated colts in the San Vicente back in February at Santa Anita going 7 furlongs.  Evita is only a 3-year-old, but obviously warrants some consideration as well.  I also wouldn’t count She’s Cheeky out of the mix here, but ultimately had to take a stand against her as you can’t pick every horse in the race. 

 

Hollywood Park – Race 8 – The Swaps (G2) – 1 1/8 Miles (4:30 PT)

  • #8 Grazen (8/5*)
  • #4 Misremembered (5/1)
  • #7 Quidici Man (20/1)

We finish the day with the feature race from Hollywood, the 36th running of The Swaps.  This race appears to be all about Grazen, the talented 3-year-old son of Benchmark who has posted a pair of triple digit Beyer figures in his last 3 races (along with a respectable 97).  He’s a perfect 3 for 3 at Hollywood and would appear to be the controlling speed of the race on paper.  No doubt he’ll be the key horse of many Pick 4 and Pick 6 wagers on the day.  For me, the important thing here is that he’s still got room for improvement, and has handled in the past the two horses I thought rated the best shots as contenders.

Misremembered faced Grazen last out in the Affirmed Handicap and ran a very game 2nd to Grazen.  Like his rival, there’s also still room for improvement here.  He’ll likely have to hope somebody can wear Grazen down a bit to make him vulnerable in the stretch, but with another move forward anything is possible. 

Quidici Man looks very underrated here to me at 20/1.  I don’t think he’s a serious shot to win this race, but I’d certainly have him covered underneath on the exotics…especially at 20/1.  He’s found a way to hit the board in 9 of 12 lifetime races.  There are obvoiusly several others to consider as well, including Conservative, Advice, and Massone.  In the end though, my hunch was that they’d all be running for place and show.

 

Best of luck to all!


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Categories : Arlington Park, Belmont Park, Delaware Park, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Nicanor

Saturday Stakes Selections – 6/20/09

20 06 2009

Saturday Stakes Selections – 6/20/09

Here’s a quick look at some of the major races for the day around the country in our Saturday Stakes Selections feature.  This week, we’ll travel through Delaware Park, Colonial Downs, Belmont Park, and finally Hollywood Park.  Next week we’ll obviously be focused on Rachel Alexandra in the Mother Goose Stakes.  Along those lines,  Operation “Rachel Alexandra Facebook Fanclub Meetup“ is in full swing, and over 1900 invites have been sent out.  So far only about 500 have responded, with over 56 saying “yes!” 

The plan is to meet by the paddock tote board immediately following the 5th race on the card.   That will allow folks ample time to arrive and get situated, plus give them a chance to get a perfect view of the paddock for race 6.  Whether you’re a part of our Rachel Alexandra Facebook group or not, come on down if you get the chance.  The more the merrier!  Just look for the guy in the crimson Alabama baseball hat with the large cursive “A” and you’ll have found me/us. 

Enough about that for now though.  Let’s take a spin around the country and see what else is going on.

 

Colonial Downs – Race 7 – The Old Nelson ($30k) – 3:43 ET

1 3/16 Miles – Turf

  • #9 Drivingmaxandmitzi (6/5*)
  • #1 Terrific Storm (5/2)
  • #3 Gray Suitor (4/1)

We kick things off with a relatively cheap $30k stakes  in the 4th running of the Old Nelson at Colonial Downs.  This is just the first of several turf stakes on the Saturday card, which could get interesting depending on how the weather holds.  Drivingmaxandmitzi looks like the clear standout here on paper.  The 7-year-old son of Skip Away has won 4 of his last 5 starts, including 3 in a row and looks very tough to defeat here today.  Terrific Storm is sitting on a 3 win streak of his own at the starter allowance level.   Gray Suitor will be looking to regain some of his 2007 form, when at one point in time he was facing off against the likes of Go Between and Cosmonaut, either of whom would toy with this field.  This one looked pretty obvious to me on top. 

 

Delaware Park – Race 7 -  The Obeah (Grade 3) – 3:57 ET

1 1/8 Miles

  • #7 Unbridled Belle (2/1*)
  • #3 All Night Labor (10/1)
  • #8 Skylighter (3/1)

Unbridled Belle hasn’t won since last year’s running of the Obeah, so you won’t hear much of an argument from me to those who think she’s a play against here.  She’s been on the shelf since a disappointing finish in the Louisville Distaff on Kentucky Oaks Day, but has fired fresh before.  If she returns to her previous form where she was competing gamely against the likes of Hystericalady and Ginger Punch, than she’s a force to be reckoned with today, but be careful about accepting too short of a price. 

All Night Labor…wow…the name alone sounds plenty painful! All kidding aside, this daughter of Double Honor seems to consistently find her way into the Exacta and her last 3 races look particularly good.  Also note that she thrives at Delaware Park having 12 in-the-money finishes (with 4 of them wins) in 15 lifetime races. 

Skylighter is very interesting from the outside.  I doubt seriously that she’ll get away with the easy lead that she had on Preakness Day in the DuPont Distaff, but she’s not a one dimensional runner by any means.  Also note that jockey Michael Smith has left his usual California surroundings to travel for the mount.  You don’t see Mikey at Delaware Park everyday, and if you know how competitive he is, than you know he didn’t come out here to lose, did he? 

 

Colonial Downs – Race 9 – The Buckland ($50k) – 4:45 ET

5 1/2 Furlongs – Turf

  • #3 Ahvee’s Destiny (3/1)
  • #13 Smart and Fancy (7/5*)
  • #11 Excessive Heat (15/1)

Tough call here between Ahvee’s Destiny and Smart and Fancy for the top selection.  I don’t consider myself to be a particularly astute handicapper when it comes to turf sprints, so ultimately I left my decision to the fact that I simply have a world of respect for trainer Linda Rice when it comes to such events.  That fact, coupled with the “better” post position led me to choose Ahvee’s Destiny tops for this race.  Smart and Fancy should be right there though with every chance to prevail as well. 

Underneath I prefer two longshots to have solid chances of hitting the board in both Excessive Heat and Hadavision.  The odds should be very rewarding on each, making them worth a shot in the exotic wagers. 

 

Delaware Park – Race 9 – The Susan’s Girl  ($125k)- 4:51 ET

1 1/16 Miles

  • #3 Payton d’Oro (5/2*)
  • #5 Cat Moves (8/1)
  • #1A Bon Jovi Girl (4/1)

Payton d’Oro, winner of the G2 Black Eyed Susan on Preakness weekend, looks to continue the strong run of Medaglia d’Oro 3-year-old fillies as she drops down the class rankings a bit to the Susan’s Girl.  I guess Larry Jones likes running her in “Susan” themed races.  In all seriousness, Jones has brought her along wonderfully, and while I don’t expect her to get an easy lead like she did in the Black Eyed Susan, she has shown an ability to press the pace before pouncing as well.  

Cat Moves looks like the natural threat to the favorite, and is entering the race off of the all important 2 sprints building up to a route angle.  The daughter of Tale of the Cat could be plenty dangerous if she doesn’t mind the distance. 

Bon Jovi Girl made a bit of an impression on me in the paddock during Black Eyed Susan Day, but even if I’m wrong about her, you’d also get coupled entry mate She’s a Wow.

 

Belmont Park – Race 9 – The New York (Grade 2) – 5:07 ET

1 1/4 Miles - Turf

  • #6 Dynaforce (3/1)
  • #3 Criticism (5/2*)
  • #4 Dress Rehearsal (5/1)

We move out to Belmont Park for their feature race of the day, the Grade 2 New York.  No matter what the weather holds today, the grounds should be softer than usual thanks to the near daily rains we’ve had in the mid-Atlantic region this week.  The question for this race is who will benefit from the softer footing and who might be at a disadvantage?  

First things first, I don’t think the soft footing will affect Criticism that much.  Ultimately though, I thought it might benefit Dynaforce just a tiny bit more.  Dynaforce was a huge disappointment in the Gallorette on the Preakness undercard, but she should be ready to improve in this her 2nd start of the year.  She should be parked just behind Crticism in the early going and should find herself with every chance to prevail in the stretch. 

Criticism looks like the controlling pace on paper, so respect her chances as well.  If the top two choices were to falter, I’d look for a runner like Dress Rehearsal to be  potential thief here. You always seem to get an honest effort out of this runner, and based on a few clues in her past performances, she might appreciate a bit of  the softer footing underneath her hooves.

Side note – those of you looking to play “hunch” angles, note that there is a runner named “Hi Daddy” in the 10th race at Belmont today.  I’m just sayin’, wouldn’t that make sense on Father’s Day weekend?

 

Colonial Downs – Race 10 – The All Along (Grade 3) – 5:21 ET

1 1/8 Miles – Turf

  • #6 Dyna’s Lassie (15/1)
  • #7 Indescribable (7/2)
  • #4 I Lost My Choo (5/2*)

Obviously we’ve got several repetitive themes here today as we bounce back and forth across the tracks, one of which being that I seem to be fond of the  Dynaformer offspring on the turf this weekend.  That trend continues in the All Along as I’ve gone with longshot upset choice Dyna’s Lassie.  This looks like a very sneaky type of runner to me who always brings a game effort.  She’s coming off a 7th place finish in the Beaugay, but a return to her previous form (4 wins and 3 places in previous 7 starts), she would be quite tough here.  In all honesty, this is the best group she’s ever faced, so we’ll have to see how she “classes up”, but then again that’s why we’re getting a price.  As always, I recommend checking her out in the post parade and/or paddock before taking the final leap of faith. 

Indescribable is another interesting runner here.  Folks might be scared away because of the limited turf history in her running lines, but that which we do have looks pretty darn good.  Gotta love that she won on yielding turf over at Churchill a few races back, meaning we needn’t worry about whatever mother nature sends our way. 

I Lost My Choo is also entered in the New York at Belmont, but this would look like a much better spot for her to pick up some additional “black type.”

 

Colonial Downs – Race 11 – The Colonial Turf Cup (Grade 2) – 6:16 ET

1 3/16 Miles – Turf

  • #3 Rescue Squad (6/1)
  • #8 Battle of Hastings (2/1*)
  • #10 Lime Rickey (7/2)

The feature race of the afternoon at Colonial Downs is the Grade 2 Colonial Turf Cup, which has attracted a field of 10 runners.  Once again, I’m on a Dynaformer here.   Rescue Squad is an improving runner who appears suited for the distance today.  My only main concern is how he’ll handle the long layoff since April?  My secondary concern is how he’ll handle the course at Colonial, especially if it comes up soft?  Still, the odds will be right, and I’m much more comfortable with this runner than I am with a lower odds choice like Take the Points, who screams “bet against” to me (interesting side note, I vividly recall a drunk on Preakness Day boasting that he would be laughing all the way to the bank after dumping a sizeable chunk on Take the Points to win the Preakness). 

Battle of Hastings is a runner I both like and have to use.  I say “have” as I’ve developed an affinity for playing runners with martially inspired names.  Not only that, but an ancestor of mine commanded Norman cavalry on the field of Hastings in William the Conqueror’s invading army.  William’s cavaly is largely credited with turning the tide of the battle of Hastings in Norman favor, and leading to the destruction of King Harold’s defending Saxon “shield wall.”  As Mike Watchmaker pointed out in the Saturday edition of the DRF, however, it remans to be seen if Battle of Hastings wants to go this distance. 

Lime Rickey is a hard hitting son of Lemon Drop Kid who got back to his winning ways dropping into Allowance company after a disappointing effort against I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial.  I suspect he’ll run big here as well.

 

Hollywood Park – Race 9  – The Affirmed (Grade 3) – 8:00 ET

1 1/16 Miles

  • #2 Grazen (2/1*)
  • #3 Cape Truth (7/2)
  • #1 Misremembered (4/1)

We wind things up in our Saturday selections with the feature from Hollywood Park, the 31st running of the Affirmed, for 3-year-olds going 1 1/16  miles over the main cushion track.  I went with the up and coming Grazen as my top choice as this field didn’t turn out as salty as you might expect for a Grade 3.  The son of Benchmark is the only runner in the field to have posted a triple digit Beyer speed figure and proved last time out that he can win going a route of ground.  Now he’s putting it all together and going 1 1/16 miles against stakes company, and this looks like a good opportunity for him to score. 

Cape Truth looks like the main rival, if you can forgive that slow start in the Lone Star Derby last out.  He’s back to his preferred settings in Southern California and should show up with a game effort for trainer Doug O’Neill. 

Misremembered is another interesting runner that could take the next step forward for trainer Bob Baffert.  This is a small, yet competitive field.

 

Best of luck to all, and here’s hoping we see some of you next week for Rachel Alexandra’s return in the Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont Park.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Delaware Park, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra


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