The Pamplemousse and Quality Road get the job done.

1 03 2009

Track announcer Trevor Denman’s call was spot on as The Pamplemousse prepared to cross the finish line in Saturday’s running of the Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita Park;

“…they would need to sprout wings to catch him…”

 

Indeed. The impressive son of Kafwain with the funny name (pronounced “pample-moose” in case, like me, your first inclination was to make it more of a “pimple mouse” enunciation) has now pulled off 3 straight victories in a row, with each one being an improvement on the last.   Julio Canani’s grapefruit has only one test left to pass out west on the road to the Kentucky Derby when he faces off against Pioneer of the Nile and (perhaps) Stardom Bound in the Santa Anita Derby in April. 

The Pamplemousse is a horse that has become quite popular with fans following the action out in California.  Visually, he’s an impressive colt that looks big and well put together to me.  If you haven’t had a chance to get up close and personal with him, you’re in luck; Mary Forney has been documenting him in the morning workouts and getting some always entertaining Julio Canani camera time and it’s all available on youtube.

 

Take the Points proved something to me by running fairly well for 2nd in the Sham.  Prior to the race I had mentioned that I’m not fond of horses shipping from east to west (especially not on such short notice), but he showed up and ran extremely well.  This might be a horse to keep an eye on as well.  Not many have the versatility to run big on both dirt and synthetics. I think this guy has a future in front of him.  Colonel John’s full brother Mr. Hot Stuff got up for third.

The challenge The Pamplemousse will likely have to overcome one of these days is to his front running, gate to wire style.  The only thing we need to see from this colt is that he can relax.  However, isn’t it somewhat more impressive that he’s doing this over the Santa Anita Pro Ride?  It’s not the most speed favoring track in recent memory and tends to play more like a turf course.   Plus, all he does is run the competition out of their shoes.  You’ve got to love that, but I’m still a bit cautious about his chances come the First Saturday in May. 

 

 

In the other major action of the day, Quality Road turned in a bit of a shocker in the Fountain of Youth.  Several of you had mentioned this horse as a runner you expected big things from, so I’m hoping there were a few cashed tickets out there amongst the faithful.  Me, I got burned by him as I expected him to be part of a hot pace.  That didn’t really develop right away, and by the time it did Quality Road was actually in good position to benefit from it stalking just behind This One’s for Phil.

My choice, Beethoven, ran on for third, but never really threatened.  Quality Road won in impressive fashion, absolutely blowing away This One’s for Phil in the stretch.  The win is the third quality performance that the aptly named Quality Road has turned out thus far in his career, and it looks like the son of Elusive Quality should be able to get some extra distance if trainer James Jerkens decides to point him towards either the Florida Derby or the Wood Memorial in early April.

I also thought Theregoesjojo was running very well late and it will be interesting to see where trainer Ken McPeek points this guy next.   For now though, Quality Road definitely looks like a colt to keep an eye on in the coming months.  Obviously the Pamplemousse was already on most everyone’s radar, but it’s always nice to welcome a relatively new colt to the discussion, so come on down Quality Road and pull up a chair. 

Next weekend should bring even more intrigue as we get to see Haynesfield, Imperial Council, Mr. Fantasy, and others in the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct.  Things are starting to get interesting, that’s for sure.  If you’re curious about my top 10 Derby contenders at the moment, I’d rank ‘em like this:

  1. Old Fashioned
  2. Dunkirk
  3. Pioneer of the Nile
  4. Friesan Fire
  5. The Pamplemousse
  6. Patena (must live up to the hype to prove this position though)
  7. Quality Road (rocketing up my list)
  8. Haynesfield (will get toughest test yet in the Gotham, but has earned this ranking thus far)
  9. Imperial Council (is he the real deal?)
  10. Stardom Bound (get the feeling she’ll head to the Oaks instead of the Derby)

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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Quality Road, Santa Anita, The Pamplemousse

Fountain of Youth a race of intrigue

27 02 2009

In the 16th century, Spanish explorer and conquistador Ponce de Leon is rumored to have searched high and wide for the mythical Fountain of Youth in order to cure his natural aging.  He never did find it.  Trying to decipher Saturday’s 63rd running of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park might be just as difficult a proposition.  We’ve got an incredibly deep field of talented and up-and-coming 3-year-old colts all trying to stamp there name on the Kentucky Derby Trail.  Twelve horses are entered (although one is likely shipping west for the day’s other feature, the Sham at Santa Anita).  The field sets up like this:

Past Performances for the G2 Fountain of Youth are available here

  1. Be Cee Cee (C. Velasquez/E. Plesa Jr.) 30/1
  2. Theregoesjojo (K. Desormeaux/ K. McPeek) 15/1
  3. Notonthesamepage (E. Trujillo/W. Ward) 4/1
  4. Take the Points (C. Decarlo/T. Pletcher) 10/1
  5. Jack Spratt (R. Douglas/M. Maker) 20/1
  6. Rocketing Returns (J. Lezcano/N. Zito) 15/1
  7. Beethoven (C. Borel/J. Ward Jr.) 12/1
  8. Break Water Edison (E. Coa/J. Kimmel) 15/1
  9. Capt. Candyman Can (J. Leparoux/I. Wilkes) 5/1
  10.  Taqarub (A. Garcia/K. McLaughlin) 6/1
  11.  Quality Road (J. Velazquez Jr./ J. Jerkens) 8/1
  12.  This Ones for Phil (E. Prado/R. Dutrow) 3/1*

Most of the attention in this race will likely be focused on what I refer to as the “Beyer freaks.”  That probably doesn’t need an explanation from most horseplayers.  Obviously this means “Phil” and “Not”.  If they run anything like those speed figures here, this race won’t be much of a mystery at all. 

The trouble with just blindly taking “Not” , who has the better post position (in theory) of the two is that he is likely to be involved in what appears to be a fairly hotly contested early pace in this race.   You get the feeling he is the speed, but Quality Road and Taqarub would appear to have something to say about that.  He also has the look of a sprinter when going over his running lines.  Sure he can burn ‘em at 6 furlongs and shorter, but can he do it going 8?  I’d say at 4/1 you make him prove it first.

“Phil” presents an altogether different problem in that he’s hung wide in the 12 hole.  Of course, we are talking trainer Rick Dutrow here – the man who got Big Brown to the winner’s circle in post 12 of the Florida Derby last year, and then from post 20 in the Kentucky Derby. I actually think the outside provides “Phil” with a clean break, which is something he’ll need trying to save some ground early and then stalking the hot pace.  The danger for him is getting cooked if the fractions are too hot up front.   That being said, he seems the proverbial bounce candidate, and at 3/1 in a field with as many options as this, he does warrant taking a chance against.   Respect him for sure, but don’t be paralyzed with fear over his Beyers. 

Ultimately this race does set up for a horse coming from off the pace.  The question for me is “how far off the pace?”  Let’s say Phil were to get burned up front early on.  Then what?   Well, 3 horses who could benefit are Capt. Candyman Can (5/1), Beethoven (12/1), and Break Water Edison (15/1).  Those are some decent prices, especially when you consider that two races back Beethoven beat Capt. Candyman Can.  Assuming we do get the expected pace scenario up front, and that we’re playing on the idea that to beat the favorite (“Phil”), we’d have to hope he gets a little tired  trying to keep up with the early pace, that really sets things up for Beethoven and Break Water Edison.

I know Beethoven is a popular upset pick form many handicappers, so I’m obviously not the only one seeing him with a huge chance here.  The race has to fall into his lap though as I don’t think that with all things being equal he can quite outrun the main rivals today.  

Breakwater Edison is my longshot bomber for the race.  Two months ago this guy might have been favored here.  Now he’s 15/1.  All he’s done in between is had one horrible trip.  We’ve all seen this before.  Is that last trip the “real” Break Water Edison, or were his runs in the end of his 2-year-old campaign more formful?  He was definitely facing (at least at that stage in their development) better when he faced off against Vineyard Haven, Cribnote, and Munnings on back to back occasions.  He’s Lemon Drop, so you know he likes all the extra ground (and experience) he can get.   There’s a lot to like about this guy at 15/1 is all I’m saying.  You can’t always come up with ways why a 15/1 can win a race like this, so being able to foresee him closing late into a hot early pace makes me think this guy could be a player here.

Quality Road and Taqarub look like very good horses, but they’d be a lot more appealing to me if they were the only speed in this race.  It seems to me that to win they are going to have to show they can relax a bit stretching out, which might be asking just a tad too much against this rather salty competition.

Honestly there’s a million ways you could go with this one.  I’m going bombing with my picks.  I’m playing Beethoven to win for $20, and putting him on top of my 10 cent Superfecta.  I’ll probably use “Phil”, Break Water Edison, and Capt. Candyman Can in second.   I like Theregoesjojo enough to add him in third, and Bee Cee Cee seems to have a tendency to wind up hitting the board as well.  I’ll add in Quality Road and “Not” for the bottom of the ticket.

Selections:

  • $20 Win:  #7 Beethoven
  • $.10 Superfecta: 7/8,9,12/1,2,8,9,12/1,2,3,8,9,11,12 ($6.00)

Best of luck to all. You wont’ get any argument out of me if you play “Phil” or the Capt. as the scenarios where they could win are just as likely (if not more).   Whatever you do, make sure you watch this one if you can as it looks like the best Derby prep that we’ve had thus far…at least on paper.


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail

Saturday Gulfstream picks

30 01 2009

Hot off an exciting Friday that saw Captain Candyman Can prevail in the Hutcheson (where highly touted Break Water Edison finished a disappointing 6th), Guflstream Park comes right back with an even more thrilling Saturday card that features the Grade 1 Donn Handicap, the Grade 3 Holy Bull, and the much anticipated debut of Barbaro’s little brother, Nicanor.  As if all of that were not enough, Gulfstream beckons horseplayers from all over the land with 10 cent superfectas and a much needed 50 cent Pick 4 sequence. 

For anyone in need, you can access a free copy of the Gulfstream past performances over at the home page for the TBA.

Race 7: The Grade 3 Holy Bull  (1 1/8 Miles)

  • #1 Bruce N Autumn (12/1)
  • #2 Danger to Society (5/1)
  • #3 Bear’s Rocket (20/1)
  • #4 Saratoga Sinner (12/1)
  • #5 El Crespo (12/1)
  • #6 Rockland (8/1)
  • #7 Stately Character (20/1)
  • #8 Idol Maker (6/1)
  • #9 Nowhere to Hide (8/1)
  • #10 West Side Bernie (3/1*)
  • #11 Beethoven (4/1)

Several horses who hope to figure prominently on the Kentucky Derby trail highlight the 20th running of the Holy Bull.  Beethoven and West Side Bernie, the likely favorites, have each drawn outside post positions for the two-turn route, and could be compromised by this development.  Might that set things up for a thief from the inside? 

From looking over the selections of the handicappers in the Saturday edition of the DRF, I see I’m not alone in boosting the chances of the promising Danger to Society.  He’s an intriguing son of Harlan’s Holiday who is undefeated in two starts.  While it’s tough to figure out just what quality of opponents he’s been facing, he could get a great trip here today stalking from off the pace.  I especially like that he’s got a victory under his belt at the demanding 9 furlong distance, something neither Beethoven or West Side Bernie can say. 

I consider myself enough of a Beethoven fan at the moment to anticipate that he’ll run well on Saturday.  He’s been flattered now with Captain Candyman Can’s win in the Hutcheson on Friday, as he defeated him last time out along with Giant Oak.  I think this makes Beethoven the class of the field and the obvious win candidate on paper.  My only problem with West Side Bernie is that he exits the Delta Jackpot, and we all know historically that race tends to be inflated in terms of class and worth. 

Another interesting runner to consider here on the bottom of exotic tickets is the Smarty Jones colt Rockland.  He’d have to step up big time to win here, and I don’t predict that happening, but it’s hard to knock his recent form.  True, he only stepped up to the lower allowance level last time out, but it’s still nice to see a Beyer improvement from 77 to 82 his first time against winners. 

Stately Character is another that warrants some consideration.  He offers great value at 20/1 and should be charging late if he gets something to run at.  Speaking of which, from a pace standpoint, this one does look a little curious.  I’m guessing Idol Maker and Bear’s Rocket should be a part of whatever is going on early on.   Danger to Society could be involved as well, or he could stalk.  Either way I think the pace setup is very favorable to him.  El Crespo is the x-factor here to me as it’s any-one’s guess how his recent turf form will translate to dirt in his first try over that surface. 

For my superfecta ticket, I’ll play Danger to Society for the win over Beethoven, West Side Bernie, and Stately Character.  I’ll add in Rockland and El Crespo underneath for show.  Rounding out the ticket I’ll add in Idol Maker and Bruce N’ Autumn for 4th.

2/7,10,11/5,6,7,10,11/1,5,6,7,8,10,11 ($6.00)

 

Race 9:  The Grade 1 Donn Handicap (1 1/8 Miles)

  • #1 Finallymadeit (12/1)
  • #2 Albertus Maximus (4/1)
  • #3 Anak Nakal (10/1)
  • #4 Bullsbay (8/1)
  • #5 A.P. Arrow (10/1)
  • #6 On Board Again (20/1)
  • #7 Arson Squad (3/1)
  • #8 Sir Whimsy (12/1)
  • #9 Great Hunter (15/1)
  • #10 Einstein (5/2*)

The Donn stacks up as a formidable feature race on the Gulfstream card. This is the kind of feature that would be the centerpiece of that crazy “Take Back Saturday” idea I’m always on about.  We’ve got Albertus Maximus, Einstein, and a very sharp looking Arson Squad all lined up to do battle.  Every runner in the race with the exception of Bullsbay has posted a 100 Beyer at some point in their career.  Want to know the crazy thing though?  I actually really like Bullsbay here as a value play.  I’ll explain more in a bit.

First, let’s look at the obvious.  The top two win candidates on paper have to be considered Einstein and Arson Squad.  Einstein gets the outside draw here, but he’s classy enough to overcome that.  I usually think of Einstein as more of a turf runner (as many do), but he’s showed that he can run competitively on the dirt, as evidenced by his win in the Clark Handicap and his 2nd place finish to eventual Horse of the Year winner Curlin in the Stephen Foster.   Even better for Einstein, 9 furlongs seems to be his sweet spot.  I think he’s got a big chance here, but the value likely won’t be much.  He’s a definite horse to cover in the exotics.

Arson Squad is another to keep an eye on.  If you’ve been following the mini-feud between Andy Beyer and trainer Rick Dutrow in the Daily Racing Form over Dutrow’s dramatically improved colt This Ones for Phil, you’re no doubt wondering “if Dutrow could do that with a career best 80 Beyer runner, what might he do with Arson Squad here?”  The answer is simple.  Don’t look for any dramatic 20 point increase, but this is clearly a horse in sharp form that is to be respected in this contest.  The one thing that worries me with him is that he’s seemingly gotten better with a few races under his belt following a layoff, and he’s been off since late November.  That being said, he certainly improved once entering Dutrow’s barn, and has been working pretty well in the mornings.  He’s another player with a big shot, but I’ll once again probably look elsewhere for value in the superfecta.

Albertus Maximus is probably going to wind up the 3rd choice on the tote board at post time, but there are questions with him as well.  He’s not exactly known for his true dirt form and is seemingly a better synthetic runner, although do note that he has a win and a place in two starts over the conventional surface.  He’s probably the hardest horse to get a read on in the entire field and could show up huge or be a huge bust. 

My upset special?  I’m going with the dark horse, the only guy not yet in the 100 Beyer club.  That’s right: Bullsbay.   I know, it may look like madness at first glance, but here me out on this.  First, he’s from trainer Graham Motion’s barn, who has always been one of my favorites.   Two races back he defeated a field that included Belmont Stakes winner Da’ Tara.  He got a good primer under his belt going 8 furlongs last out and raylling for 2nd place over the Gulfstream main track.  Lastly, he’s a Tiznow…and one that figures to offer some value on the board.  Make no mistake, I”m not necessarily predicting he’ll win here, as I’d expect either Einstein or Arson Squad do wind up in the winner’s circle.  I just think he’s got enough of a chance here to be a decent value play.  Especially in the superfecta. 

4/2,7,10/1,2,3,7,10/1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10 ($8.40)

 

As for Nicanor’s debut?  I’m going to sit and watch this one.  Don’t get me wrong, I’ll have a pick 4 ticket in play that will likely have him covered, but I’m not going to heap any expectations on the colt until we see what we have in him.  It’s enough for now that he’s in racing and that at least some of the same genes that went into Barbaro are back on the track.  Anything on top of that is gravy.   We’ve also got the Santa Monia at Santa Anita, but with Indian Blessing’s scratch that race got a lot less exciting.  Ventura all the way for what it’s worth. 

As always, be sure to check for late scratches and or changes.  Best of luck to everyone.


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Categories : Barbaro, Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail


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