How One Moment Can Captivate a Nation

25 06 2010

The story line runs near and dear to any racing fan’s heart.  A sport that has been long cherished and held in high regard around the world struggling to find relevance on the national stage here in the U.S.  Fans of the sport long feeling somewhat shunned and mocked by the general populace.  Only once every few years does even the prospect of having a chance to claim a sliver of the spotlight present itself – and only then when something truly remarkable is deemed imminent.

Earlier this week in South Africa, just such a moment occurred when Landon Donovan nailed the game winner against Algeria, propelling the U.S. World Cup team to the knockout portion of the tournament in the  round of 16.

I’ll spare the obvious Miracle on ice comparisons – if only because Algerian soccer is not quite the enemy that Soviet hockey was.  Certainly the moment invokes memories of the passion and excitement coursing through the land each time the U.S. drove a puck into the Russian net.

The sudden surge of interest and enthusiasm in the happenings of a sport long dismissed by Americans as “boring”, and (in so many words) “unmanly” has caught some of guard.  Not me.

We’ve been saying this for years.  The reason people love sport –  all sport – is because deep down in our hearts we are fascinated by watching the human spirit (or in our case the equine spirit) overcome adversity.  Every sport – given the right venue – is capable of captivating the people’s attention.  It just takes the right combination of accessibility, relevance, and of course heart-stopping dramatic moments.

When the U.S. began their World Cup campaign, they faced off against mighty England on a Saturday afternoon.  The internet was ablaze with excitement.  Twitter even went to so far as to add nifty little icons if you typed in a country’s name or the phrase  ”#worldcup”  into a message.  The match earned a 7.6 rating, whereas the longer broadcast that included pre-game coverage earned a 6.1 rating (making it the 5th highest rated FIFA broadcast since 1994).

The most viewed moment in American soccer history continues to be the shirtless romp of Brandi Chastain and Team USA beating China in the 1997 Women’s WC Final.  A whopping 18 million viewers tuned in for that epic moment – proving what horse racing fans have known ever since our leading ladies Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra burst onto the scene:  we may think of sports as being “manly” – but there might be something to this whole “girl power” thing after all.

What about that goal-heard-round-the-world by Landon Donovan that propelled the U.S. to the next round and elicited the response across the nation captured above?  While being dubbed the “most viewed soccer telecast in U.S. history” (despite the obvious math problems when compared to the Brandi Chastain moment above), the match drew just a 4.6  rating – reaching perhaps 6 million viewers overall.

Contrast that with what was generally considered a rather down year for the Triple Crown season in thoroughbred racing.  The Preakness stakes – won by Lookin at Lucky over Kentucky Derby champion Super Saver - earned 8.4 million viewers.  If the sources I’ve linked to are to be trusted, that means that a rather nondescript 2010 rendition of the Preakness still earned over 2 million more viewers than the greatest and “most watched” soccer moment in a generation within the U.S.  I find that fascinating given the general “racing is dead” talk and the ubiquitous, inescapable references to the World Cup everywhere one turns.

Now, it must be said – the U.S. match against Algeria came on a weekday morning – not exactly prime time television – which makes their ratings all the more astounding.  Most of racings largest moments happen on a Saturday – which tends to draw increased viewership (there’s a reason the NFL targeted Sunday for their main “game day”).  No doubt we’ll be looking at another huge draw for soccer when the U.S. takes on Ghana on Saturday.

What about when times are good for racing?   When Rachel Alexandra won the Preakness in 2009 – a race in which the favorite was not the Kentucky Derby champion (Mine That Bird), but rather a filly attempting to become the first of her kind in decades to prevail in the middle jewel of the Triple Crown - it earned a 7.9 rating (and reportedly 10.9 million viewers) – the second highest rating for the Preakness broadcast in almost 20 years.  Smarty Jones set the bar even higher back in 1994, earning a 9.4 rating.

Perhaps we should not be so fast to throw in the towel and trumpet the demise of racing?  I’m sure folks affiliated with FIFA are euphoric and will look to capitalize on their success.  While the popularity of thoroughbred racing is indeed declining as the decades march on, we must remember that there is indeed a “base” or “core” from which to build upon for the future.  Pessimism will get us nowhere.

As a sport, soccer has progressed with a definitive goal in mind over the last two decades – to aggressively carve out a slice of relevance and to earn a shot at capturing the attention of the nation.  They’ve dedicated themselves to securing a new generation of fans through efforts like youth soccer, and have embraced popular mediums like video gaming to drum up interest, familiarity, and enthusiasm (as anyone who has played the outstanding FIFA franchise games can attest).

And note – while it takes quite a bit of effort to nurture a growing following, you don’t even need ALL the stars to align themselves – as our matches in the World Cup have been marred by 90 minute scoring droughts, controversial decisions from officials, and those blasted, damnable vuvuzelas.

We’ve been over all of this before, of course – as each time the Olympics come around I find myself shouting at the television screen about competitions I know next to nothing about (I’m not a pretty sight in ice skates – nor in track and field uniforms).  The other evening my wife and I watched with amusement as our 1-year-old bellowed unintelligible yells of defiance directed towards the ineptness and futility of the Baltimore Orioles.  Obviously it’s a part of who we are from very early on in our development.  It’s as if our brains are firing up to declare: “something is happening – something exciting – I want to have a vested interest in this!”

Make no mistake – soccer is experiencing a surge in popularity the likes of which it has never seen in this nation.  Everyone I spoke with at work this week tended to have wishes for the team in their hearts, on their lips, and in their minds. Only time will tell if the attention is fleeting or if it has real  staying power.  We in thoroughbred racing no all too well about fleeting glory.  One factor that will no doubt play a key role is how the U.S. performs against Ghana on Saturday, and then, God-willing, against any future opponents they may face.  A strong run could propel the sport to a sustained (or semi-sustained) golden age of popularity.

Likewise – with some improved foresight, a bit of luck, and the courage to aggressively carve out our own niche audience and build for the future – we might find ourselves thrust back into the national spotlight one day-  and hopefully for all the RIGHT reasons.





Belmont State of Mind

6 06 2010

I’m the new Sinatra and since I made it here I can make it anywhere.  Yeah they love me everywhere.”

Jasmine Villegas - who upset fans and horses alike with her god awful singing at Belmont on Saturday.

The above statement is contained in the opening lyrics of the Jay-Z/Alicia Keys hit “Empire State of Mind” – which in an ironic twist replaced the traditional singing of Frank Sinatra’s “New York, New York”  on Saturday prior to the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes.  With the original artists unable to attend, teen sensation Jasmine Villegas was called on  to offer her vocal skills to the crowd.  The result, at least from what we saw on the television broadcast, was an unmitigated disaster of epic proportions.

How bad was it?

The performance was so brutal that ABC actually cut away from the unfolding catastrophe in order to go to commercial break.  A merciful decision that no doubt spared the eyeballs of countless viewers from being jabbed with writing utensils or other blunt objects.  Upon returning to the coverage, it was suggested that the beached-whale-with-a-hernia sounding notes had actually upset Make Music for Me (rather ironic, given the horse’s name).

Look, I don’t mean to be too harsh (especially towards a 16-year-old) – as I’m all for trying new things in an effort to connect more with the next generation. It’s just that the performance by Villegas actually set a new standard of “bad” for me – replacing such cherished moments as William Hung’s initial American Idol audition and Roseanne Barr’s rendition of the National Anthem.  What I find absolutely unbelievable are the celebrity chasers out there calling the performance “brilliant”. Either those pieces were written ahead of time or it proves that some folks are so obsessed with celebs that no matter what they do it will be referred to as brilliant.

The sub par effort  by the “star” Villegas may have been a bad omen for the heavy favorite in the Belmont as well; Ice Box.   The son of Pulpit would never quite get unwound in the stretch, finishing completely off the board in 8th place.  Nick Zito mentioned that we “hadn’t seen the real Ice Box today” in post race interviews.  Indeed – just as we hadn’t heard the real “Empire State of Mind” either.  I’m sure the pedestrian opening half-mile fractions set by First Dude didn’t help the situation – and of course it’s always possible that Ice Box was still sorting out in his head whether Villegas effort qualified as music or whether NYRA had been sacrificing moose live over the PA system in some sort of shocking cult ritual.  In that sense, it’s understandable that he didn’t show up with his best stuff.

Villegas and Ice Box weren’t the only ones turning in crappy performances though.   If I’m going to be a harsh critic, it’s only fair that I do the same with my own selections.  I didn’t have the winner of the Belmont anywhere on my radar going into the race.  In fact, I had called Drosselmeyer a “money burner” in a conversation with a work buddy earlier in the week (in my defense, Drosselmeyer had lost as favorite in 4 of his 8 lifetime races coming into the Belmont, so the description seemed to fit for the moment).  He and Uptowncharlybrown were complete toss-outs for me that I expected would be overbet at the windows.  I gave them no chance.

Full Results Chart from Equibase

We had noted earlier in the week that the Belmont needed a hero. Thankfully, Drosselmeyer was not affected by the off-key tone and butchered notes.  The son of Distorted Humor sports German sounding nomenclature inspired by The Nutcracker (“Herr Drosselmeyer”), so perhaps we should not have been surprised?  It is the Teutons after all who celebrate the musical talents of David Hasselhoff and persist in keeping reruns of ALF culturally relevant.

None of that previous history mattered as Drosselmeyer entered the post parade.  He looked absolutely regal with his chestnut coat showing a fine glow and his ears perked up suggesting readiness for a top performance.  If I had spent just a few more moments focusing on the trouble he had encountered in the Risen Star, Louisiana Derby, and Dwyer Stakes (Grade 2′s all), perhaps I could’ve cashed in on his 13-1 goodness?

Instead, I was stuck ripping up my First Dude and Ice Box themed tickets.  In that sense, I seem to share the fate of Villegas and Ice Box – an utter failure on Belmont Saturday!

But wait – there’s more!!!

Did anyone out there actually get to witness the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap?  Probably not, considering it wasn’t televised live anywhere.  I’m thinking there may have been a ripple in space-time that has opened up a series of tangent universes out there – where every conceivable possibility for the race has played itself out.  We seem to exist in one of  those bubbles in which an improbable outcome took place.  Winchester, an off the charts longshot, somehow managed to upset a defending 2009 Eclipse Award winner in Gio Ponti to win his second race in a row – proving that yes, definitively, Winchester is a repeater.

I don’t know who dropped the ball on this one, but to have an entire crew from ABC/ESPN on location covering the Belmont, and then to pay absolutely no attention to a Grade 1 turf race featuring the return of the top U.S. turf horse from the previous year?

Epic fail – perhaps even more so than Villegas, Ice Box, or my own god awful selections.

So where does the weekend leave us?  Just as expected, really – with more questions than answers.   I don’t think we have a clear picture of the 3-year-old division even now.  I’d still lean towards Lucky as the overall leader – but Drosselmeyer and Fly Down have moved into the discussion by finishing 1, 2 in the Belmont.  I really thought my boy First Dude was in good shape after the opening half mile – and I’d suspect we’ll see some more of him this summer as well – provided the dude abides.

Hopefully though we’ve seen the last of sub-par musical performances aimed at gen-next…and equally awful handicapping selections.

Hats off to the connections of Drosselmeyer for their big Belmont victory.  I sure hope SOMEBODY out there managed to take down that Pick 4 for $167k!!!!





Belmont Selections

3 06 2010

The dude abides the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes

Almost as soon as the Triple Crown season begins – it comes to a close.  In some ways it feels like just yesterday I was watching Odysseus win the Tampa Bay Derby and wishing he would earn his way into the Derby.  We all know how that played out.  In other ways it seems a lifetime has passed since Lookin at Lucky finally got the trip he deserved and staked his claim atop the 3-year-old division.

On Saturday the season winds up with the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes – but one might say that in reality the season is only beginning.  We’ve still just as many questions as we do answers, and the division as a whole (beyond Lucky’s victory) has not really shaken itself out definitively.  Much could change this weekend, but the consensus seems to be that we’ll see some fairly competitive and wide open races throughout the summer.

We’ll kick things off with our selections beginning in Race 8 – as that starts the “all stakes Pick 4″ sequence.  Technically the stakes action begins 2 races earlier in Race 6, but there’s not a whole lot to see beyond the matchup of Eightyfiveinafifty and D’funnybone.  The real action comes later.

Race 8 – The Grade 2 True North Handicap – 6 Furlongs

The True North is headlined by multiple stakes winning Custom for Carlos.  The son of More Than Ready has proved lethal at this distance with 5 wins and 2 place finishes in 7 lifetime starts.  One thing he has not done is prove victorious beyond the Grade 3 level.  That should change on Saturday.

The most likely contender that will take action at the betting windows is the French-bred Bribon – a proven Grade 1 winner that has specialized lately at the mile distance.  Prior to the races that appear on his past performances, he did run 4 times at the 6 furlong distance and was quite good – hitting the board 3 times and winning once.  Bribon is the most accomplished of the field on the Belmont main track, with 3 wins in 8 lifetime starts.

Of the rest of the field, two longer priced horses gave me pause.  Checklist exits a career best victory at Gulfstream Park in which he blew away a field of questionable quality by 11 lengths.  I don’t care who you beat – if you win a sprint by 11 lengths, you’re doing something right.  Together with Bribon, Checklist gives Todd Pletcher a formidable duo in this race.

The other horse that intrigued me was Elusive Warning.   He was no match for ‘Carlos in the G3 Toboggan and may be best used in the underneath positions of exotic wagers – but if you know me well enough you know that I love to play Alan Garcia in New York.  His bullet workout on 5/27 was a bit out of character – so I’m guessing the light bulb may have switched on here for the son of Elusive Quality.

Selections:

  • #2 Custom for Carlos (5/2*)
  • #3 Bribon (3/1)
  • #7 Elusive Warning (8/1)

Race 9 – The Grade 1 TVG Betfair Acorn – 1 Mile

The Acorn looks to be perhaps the most interesting race in the Pick 4 sequence.  Tanda is a horse I went into my handicapping fully expecting to single.  My hunch is that the daughter of Sweetsouthernsaint is one of the better 3-year-old fillies in the land.  That being said, it’s hard to take a full stand on a horse that is trying a new distance on a new surface for the first time.  I’m not one that generally worries about the synthetic-to-dirt angle – it’s just that this field also came up incredibly tough.  She’s still my top choice, but this may be a tough one.

Seeking the Title was a horse I was fairly high on going into the G2 Black Eyed Susan on Preakness weekend.  She promptly rewarded my loyalty by tossing Kent Desormeaux and failing to officially finish the race.  Thankfully she wasn’t injured – and I’d like to see her run the race this weekend that I was expecting 3 Saturdays ago.

A horse that may get lost in the shuffle that I think warrants strong consideration here is Much Rejoicing.  The lightly raced daughter of Distorted Humor is making only her 3rd lifetime start, but I LOVE what I see in her profile.  She’s won convincingly in each race thus far, and even managed to defeat another horse I think warrants some consideration in this field in Buckleupbuttercup last out.  If she moves forward on Saturday (and look who’s aboard – my man Alan Garcia), she fits with this group.

I’m taking a stand against Tidal Pool, Champagne d’Oro, and Amen Hallelujah, even though it would be no surprise to see any of them win as they are all capable.

Selections:

  • #2 Tanda (5/1)
  • #8 Much Rejoicing (10/1)
  • #4 Seeking the Title (10/1)

Race 10 – The Manhattan Woodford Reserve – 1 1/4 Miles

The Manhattan would become a lot more interesting if for some reason the Gio Ponti that we all knew and loved on the turf last year did not show up.  If he does, this race may be over before it’s run.   This is a fairly evenly matched field though, and all in all I decided to add in an old friend who cost me the Derby Day Pick 4 by failing to defeat General Quarters (Court Vision), and a horse that – as I had predicted in a chat on Iron Maidens the night before the Preakness – knocked me out of the Pick 6 at Pimlico in the Dixie Stakes (Strike a Deal).

Selections:

  • #1 Gio Ponti (2/1*)
  • #6 Court Vision (4/1)
  • #2 Strike a Deal (12/1)

Race 11 – The Grade 1 Belmont  - 1 1/2 Miles

Ah, the feature race of the day!  Belmont 134! The first thing that jumps out to me here is the interesting parallel to last year’s Belmont.  We went into the ’09 Belmont focused on “the Bird” in the form of Derby champion Mine That Bird, only to be wowed by the “other Bird” in Summer Bird (who oddly enough was just announced as being retired).   This year, instead of bird’s, we’ve got “dudes”, and you know what – the Dude abides.  The Dude most definitely abides.

Most of the attention will be rightly focused on the fast closing Ice Box, coming off his scintillating performance in the Derby.  My only problem with Ice Box is that the pace setup could be questionable.  First Dude looks like a possible lone speed candidate, but Spangled Star may have something to say about that.  First Dude will certainly have to go from the 11 hole, and if Spangled Star harasses him early on, one can picture the dude retorting “this will not stand, man!  This aggression will not stand!!!”

That might set things up for Ice Box, or perhaps even the “other dude” (remember – the ringer cannot look suspicious….even if filled with dirty undies).  Game On Dude should be positioned to be among those getting “first run” at First Dude and Spangled Star if in fact they do hook up on the front end.

Another closer I don’t think you can overlook in this race is Stately Victor.  The son of Ghostzapper is well-bred for this affair – and like Lucky in the Preakness could use a bit of racing help from up above.

So where do I wind up?  I’m guessing that Dude gets loose on the lead and that the others have a tough time reeling him in.  I can see Ice Box flying late just as he did at Churchill – and while I’ll definitely include him on my exotics, I’m going to make him 2nd choice.  I’m torn between Stately Victor and Game on Dude for 3rd selection, and went with the “other dude” based on the pace setup – but I’ll be using the statesmen as well.  Interactif could be somewhat interesting in here as well as he doesn’t figure to have as much left to do in the late stages of the race as others.

So, you know, that’s just like, my opinion, man.

And yes, before you ask – this means that I’m going slightly against the wishes of Otsu/Setsuko in our Belmont parody video.

Selections:

  • #11 First Dude (7/2)
  • #6 Ice Box (3/1*)
  • #8 Game On Dude (10/1)

As for that Pick 4 I’m thinking of playing?  It might go something like this:

2,3 with 2,4,8 with 1 with 5,6,8,11 ($24)

Best of luck to everyone!





The Belmont needs a hero

30 05 2010

With one week to go until the 2010 Belmont Stakes, it’s time to get back in the saddle and start focusing on the race at hand.  Gone are the Derby and Preakness winners in Super Saver and Lookin at Lucky – and gone is most of the national media attention due to the absence of a Triple Crown being on the line.

With the 3-year-old division still essentially up for grabs – and with the bulk of the summer racing action yet to come – might the time be right for a colt to rise to the occasion?  Despite the lack of star power, the race itself could setup to be very intriguing.  The place horses from each of the first two Classics is back – Ice Box and First Dude.  Add into the mix dangerous looking runners like Fly Down and Stately Victor, and fan favorites Drosselmeyer and Uptowncharlybrown and suddenly you have the recipe for a pretty good betting race.

Here we take a humorous look at the plight of racing on the eve of the Belmont.  In this clip, an effeminate Setsuko plays the role of Otsu to Ice Box’s samurai – explaining the desperate situation and pleading with the son of Pulpit to return from the race triumphant.

It’s not quite Hitler and Odysseus – but few things are.

Enjoy!

Note:  If for some reason Youtube takes the above video down – which would be par for the course with my creations – there’s a backup version saved here on Daily Motion.

In case you’re wondering about the whole Otsu/Setsuko thing – no, I haven’t made one of my trademark faux pas and confused the gender of an effeminately named male again.  Think of it as a convenient (for this video clip) play on the fact that Setsuko is usually considered a female name in Japan.  I should also point out that no – I do not quite subscribe to the sentiments of Otsu/Setsuko in this video clip as I feel that Ice Box, First Dude, Fly Down, and Stately Victor are all capable of winning the race.

Which brings us to the most important part of the post – our first chance to gauge public opinion and see where the loyalties are lining up for the big race on Saturday.  You know the drill – sound off like you’ve got a pair!





Saturday Selections – 7/25/09

24 07 2009

Things are fairly quiet on the graded stakes front this weekend, with the Eddie Read and the Coaching Club American Oaks being the marquee races of the weekend.  In all honesty, a quiet weekend couldn’t come at a better spot for your’s truly, as I attempt to recuperate from the trip to Fair Hill and Delaware Park last Sunday, and look to rest up a bit before our voyage to Kentucky to see Curlin and New Jersey to see Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell looming on the near horizon.

We’ll only be focusing on 3 races this weekend, as we take a cautious approach at wading into the surf and turf waters of Del Mar with the Eddie Read and the Fleet Treat, and look to wrap things up at more familiar stomping grounds at Belmont with the Coaching Club American Oaks.  While we’ll be focusing on the larger races of the day from a stakes perspective, don’t forget about the little guys running in the Claiming Crown races at Canterbury.  Ted Grevelis will be “live blogging” covering the Claiming Crown races over at Owning racehorses.  Do pay him a visit if you get the chance.

 

Belmont Race 9 – The Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) – 1 1/4 Miles (5:17 ET)

  • #1 Livin Lovin (3/1)
  • #2 Wynning Ride (8/1)
  • #7 Hightap (5/1)

The 93rd running of the CCAO lost a bit of potential luster when the connections of Rachel Alexandra decided to instead point towards the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park, but all that really means is that we’ve got a more wide open betting affair before us.  In fact, in my opinion it feels like a situation where we can play against the favorite, #8 Funny Moon, quite confidently.

This is because Funny Moon seemingly requires moisture on the track to win.  I’ll be honest and admit I’ve no idea what the forecast for Belmont looks like tomorrow.  If it’s anything like what we’ve experienced the last few days, there has been periods of heavy rain, but ultimately the prospects for Saturday appear quite appealing with lots of sunshine predicted.   That would seem to make Funny Moon a tough selection to support at low odds, given the 3 victories over wet surfaces and the 0 for 2 mark over fast/dry tracks.

Livin Lovin is the horse that intrigues me the most in this field.  The daughter of Birdstone was originally entered in both the Delaware Oaks and the Del Cap last weekend, but scratched from each in order to run here.  That makes me think that trainer Steve Klesaris thinks his runner is sitting on a big one.  While she finished 4th last out in the Acorn over the Belmont surface, it wasn’t all that bad an effort given that she had been off since November.  She achieved a career high Beyer of 91 on a day when Gabby’s Golden Gal absolutely freaked, and the place horse, Justwhistledixie, would likely be heavily favored over this field.  She’s the pick as I’m guessing she’ll enjoy the added distance of the CCOA.  

Bob Baffert would appear to have himself an “x-factor” horse in Wynning Ride.  The daughter of Candy Ride has never been off the synthetics in 5 lifetime efforts, but if her workout on 7/13 at Belmont is any indication (5 furlongs in :59 and change), she ought to handle the surface just fine.  Also note some of the runners in her past performance lines that she’s run into; Laragh, Evita Argentina, Milwaukee Appeal.  Don’t be shocked if she moves forward in her first dirt effort is all I’m saying.

Lastly, I thought you had to keep an eye on Steve Asmussen’s runner Hightap.  The daughter of Tapit looks plenty formidable if you draw a line through her effort in the Honeybee back in March.  Even more appealing is the fact that she defeated Peach Brew last out, and that runner came back a winner last weekend. 

 

Del Mar Race 6 – The Fleet Treat ($100k) – 7 Furlongs (4:35 PT)

  • #4 Dani Reese (5/1)
  • #8 Saucey Evening (5/2*)
  • #6 Ultra Blend (7/2)

We head out west for the 24th running of the Fleet Treat at Del Mar.  First things first, through Thursday, only 2 favorites had proven victorious in the first 18 races run at the meet.  In other words, you probably fared better throwing darts at the wall then you did trying to pick logical winners.  Oh those tricky synthetic surfaces!  Even more perplexing is that the Fleet Treat is run at the always tricky 7 furlong distance.  So what’s a handicapper to do?

While I’d love to pick Saucey Evening here as my top choice, being as that I was able to visit Graham Motion’s Herringswell Stable barn at Fair Hill last weekend and hang out a bit with Cherokee Artist, Icabad Crane, and the beloved Better Talk Now, I was a bit surprised to see the morning line favoritism of 5/2 bestowed upon her.  Especially with Ultra Blend’s slightly more impressive Beyer figures.  I guess that’s what multiple stakes victories will do for a runner like Saucey Evening.  There goes my hope for value.  :-)

With this in mind, I’ve turned my primary attention to the lightly raced Dani Reese.  The daughter of High Demand was only a $14,000 purchase at the September 2007 Keeneland sale, and now she finds herself running in stakes company after two impressive performances at the maiden level and against open company at Hollywood.  We’ll find out what she’s made of this weekend as she gets the proverbial “acid test.”  The odds do feel right though from a risk/reward perspective at 5/1.  It’s also interesting to note that with the scratch of #2 Gold Goddess, Dani Reese is likely to get the lead all to herself.  Can she hold ‘em off in the stretch?  That’ll be the question she’ll have to answer.  Ultra Blend and Saucey Evening should be coming late trying to gun her down at the wire.

Speaking of the scratch of Gold Goddess, do note that this has freed up the services of jockey Joel Rosario.  As I was typing this, information came through on Facebook from a trusted source that Rosario will replace the injured Rafael Bejarano aboard Saucey Evening.

 

Del Mar Race 8 – The Eddie Read Handicap (G1) – 1 1/8 Miles – Turf (5:35 PT)

  • #1 Monterey Jazz (2/1*)
  • #8 Whatsthescript (3/1)
  • #4 Thorn Song (8/1)

Remember all that talk in the previous race about how favorites were only 2 for 18 through Thursday at Del Mar?  Yeah…looks like I followed my own advice about that tidbit for all of one race, as I’m back squarely on the chalk here for the 36th running of the Eddie Read Handicap.

Here’s the deal. Whatsthescript is a horse that I’ve supported time and again since last year’s Breeders’ Cup, and he just keeps burning me.  Maybe by getting off him today I’ll help him find the winner’s circle?  He’s definitely got the “horse for the course” angle going in his favor with $260,000 in earnings thus far in 2 races over the Del Mar turf.  Further, the Del Mar turf should, at least in theory, prove a bit easier to close into than the Hollywood turf, which was widely considered very speed favoring over the recently concluded spring/summer meet.

It’s just that Monterrey Jazz might be much the better horse now.  Even trainer John Sadler concedes that Whatsthescript might not have been able to catch Monterrey Jazz on his best day in the American Handicap on July 4.  If Monterrey Jazz is allowed to get loose on the lead, this one should become academic.

But, things aren’t always as simple as they seem, and the entry of Thorn Song in this race might be just what the doctor ordered for Whatsthescript.  That’s “if” he can keep Monterrey Jazz company on the front and force him to earn it in the stretch.  If he does, suddenly things get much better for the off the pace runners here. 

Ultimately, I didn’t anticipate this opening up for the late closers like Dakota Phone and Global Hunter, but stranger things have certainly happened.  For the Pick 6 and Pick 4 players here, I think you’re probably safe covering Monterey Jazz and Whatsthescript, or perhaps taking a stand on one or the other depending on how you feel the pace scenario will play out here in the Eddie Read.

That’s it for this week.  Best of luck to all and here’s hoping for a safe return for all horses and jockeys.





Revenge of the Bird; Summer Bird pulls the upset in Belmont 141

6 06 2009

Summer Bird pulls the upset in Belmont 141

For the second time in 3 years we’ve had each of the Triple Crown races won by different horses.  In 2007 it was Street Sense, Curlin, and Rags to Riches.  Now in 2009 it’s Mine That Bird, Rachel Alexandra, and Summer Bird.  We mentioned in the pre-race handicapping that it would not be a surprise if the “other Birdstone” prevailed.  With all of the attention focused on Mine That Bird, Charitable Man, and Dunkirk, the colt slipped under the radar and provided  jockey Kent Desormeaux (who was white hot, winning 4 races on the day including 3 in a row at one point in the early going) with a perfect opportunity to atone for the disappointment of Big Brown in the 2008 Belmont.

Post time favorite Mine That Bird did what we thought he’d do.  He ran his heart out and gave his best effort, but ultimately the ride by jockey Calvin Borel raised some eyebrows as many began questioning whether he asked the son of Birdstone for his run about a  furlong or so too soon.  It looked like Birdstone was a bit jumpy in the post parade, and about midway through the race he began giving Borel a bit of a fight, seeming to want to go at the horses to his front.  After the job Borel has done this Triple Crown season, I think the guy deserves to be given some slack even if he did move a bit early.  He’s only human, and it did look like the horse wanted to go. 

Meanwhile, jockey Kent Desormeaux expertly piloted Summer Bird through a run that looked very Borel/Mine That Bird-ish.  Patiently waiting at the back of the pack and positioned along the rail, Summer Bird eventually found a way through to the center of the track at the top of the stretch and then gunned down the dueling Mine That Bird and Dunkirk as Charitable Man began to fade.  For a moment at the top of the stretch it looked like Mine That Bird, Dunkirk, and Charitable Man were going to give us a 3 horse battle right down to the wire.  You can hear the wind being taken out of the crowd though as it became clear that none of these runners was going to resist Summer Bird’s powerful charge. 

Dunkirk also turned in a gutsy performance, setting the early pace through splits of :23.31 and :47.13, much faster than many had anticipated.  Many (including me) had expected Charitable Man and perhaps Miner’s Escape to set the early pace, but these two wound up taking behind Dunkirk in the early going along with Mr. Hot Stuff. 

For being a longshot, Summer Bird sure made quite the post parade impression.  I managed to tweet that he looked sensational as the field approached the gate. Luckily, at Amy’s urging, we put a quick win wager on him at the last second that came back quite lucrative.  Summer Bird crossed the wire in 2:27.31 and returned $25.80 for the win after being sent off at odds of 11/1.  It’s a good thing too, as we needed that win bet, having been bounced from the Pick 4 long before the Belmont when Gabby’s Golden Gal became the latest 3-year-old daughter of Medaglia d’Oro to shine on the center stage, joining Payton d’Oro and the super filly Rachel Alexandra. 

With the Belmont in the books, the Triple Crown season is now officially history.   Hats off to Mine That Bird, Rachel Alexandra, and Summer Bird for becoming the latest champions.  Let’s hope that this crop of 3-year-olds continues to shine on the race track.  It’ll be good for racing if Mine That Bird can bounce back later this year.  The “little gelding that could” is still a sensational runner.  Hopefully the distance of the Belmont didn’t zap his energy.  He’s probably earned  himself a lengthy layoff at this point to rest and recover.  Without a future standing stud, his connections will likely keep him racing as long as he’s healthy.

Speaking of healthy, can we all breathe a bit of a collective sigh of relief now?  We made it through the campaign without any serious injuries while in the national spotlight (although we did lose some good ones along the trail to injury, including but not limited to The Pamplemousse, Old Fashioned, Quality Road, and I Want Revenge).  We watched nervously as a full Derby field trudging along in the slop at Churchill.  We argued about the safety and soundness of a filly taking on the boys in the Preakness.  And now we’ve  had the grueling 1 1/2 mile distance of the Belmont, and as far as I’m aware at this moment in time all of the runners from these races have returned in relatively fine shape.  Maybe we can finally move past some of the more recent tragedies the sport has suffered?  Not that we’d ever want to forget…more so from a closure standpoint.  If not move past these memories completely, then at least take a step forward. 

So where does this crop of 3-year-olds rank in comparison to those of recent memory?  It’s still too early to say for sure.  Probably somewhere between the talented group from 2007 and the relatively weak group of 2008 (besides Big Brown) would be my guess.  Now we’ll see how they do when they begin to take on older horses for the first times this summer.  Usually that’s a fairly significant challenge, but the ranks of the quality older horses have been severely thinned in recent years. 

At the end of the day, I still feel confident in saying that the best horses in the nation are Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra. If  the versatile Einstein can take the Stephen Foster, then he’d certainly belong in the discussion as well.  The point is that there’s plenty of room for runners like Mine That Bird, Summer Bird, Dunkirk, and any of the other Triple Crown competitors  to come back and pick up additional graded stakes wins throughout the summer and fall. 

For now though, congratulations to trainer Tim Ice and the connections for Summer Bird, and a big round of applause to Kent Desormeaux for his perfect ride.  It may not have been the ending many expected, but it was still a beauty to behold. 

And to think….right around the corner we’ve got Saratoga and Del Mar. 





The Rachel Alexandra Rant; no Rachel in the Belmont

29 05 2009

It’s official.  Owner Jess Jackson has announced that the talented and immensely popular filly Rachel Alexandra will not be running in the 2009 Belmont.  This sets up perfectly for jockey Calvin Borel, who will now retake the mount of Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird in his quest for an all-Calvin Triple Crown.  Sadly, for bloggers like me with a penchant for gratuitous military history references, this negates my ability to discuss the potential rematch between The Derby and Preakness winners as “June 6th, a date that will once again live in infamy” (which I’m fairly certain is an oxymoron considering that once something is truly “infamous”, it’s rather impossible to become infamous once again…you either are infamous, or your not, but I digress). 

First, let me say that I tip my hat to Jess Jackson once again.  You know that he wanted to showcase his filly  in the Belmont, and it probably pains him to have to decide against running her. However, this move proves that he’s not just in this for fame and glory.  Like I’ve  said before, the man made all the right moves with Curlin, and once again he appears to be doing so with Rachel Alexandra.  In fact, the only move he’s ever made that I’ve disagreed with is one in which he really had little choice anyhow;  sending Curlin to Santa Anita to run in the ’08 Breeders’ Cup…and it’s important to note that he made the decision to send him for us, the fans, so that we would be able to see him on the sport’s biggest stage.  In other words, while I had a hunch (and no doubt Jess did himself as well) that wouldn’t go well, one can certainly understand why the decision was made. 

The decision to rest Rachel Alexandra has already sparked quite a bit of passionate discussion on the net.  Whether it be Twitter, Facebook, or any other web application out there designed for such discussions, horse fans are talking.   Of course, they’ve been talking longer than just today.  The past few weeks being filled with opinions from one side of the spectrum to the other regarding Rachel, the Bird, and everything in between.  What troubles me though is some of the recent discussion, and I’ll outline why.

The first genre of discussion that bothers me goes something like this: 

  • “I’m glad Rachel isn’t in the Belmont, she’s a filly and would’ve risked being hurt.”  

Look, I totally sympathize with horse fans who don’t want to see anyone hurt.  Nobody wants to see that.  It’s not that concern that worries me so much as it is the hidden inference that somehow fillies are inferior to colts.  Do we really need any further proof that this is simply not true (at least as a blanket statement)?  They said the same thing about the Preakness, and then Rachel went out and dominated.   I don’t recall hearing anyone in France being concerned that Zarkava was facing boys in the world’s richest turf race, the Arc de Triomphe.   How’d that one turn out?   How about Goldikova last year in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile?  And is there anyone who really thinks after the Milady that Zenyatta wouldn’t thrash the California boys at Hollywood, Santa Anita, or Del Mar?   I just don’t get it.  Surely not all fillies are created equal, so when you’ve got one who is clearly heads and shoulders better than most runners on the planet why should she be held back?   Because she’s a “she”?  See, I worry sometimes that folks are masking latent sexism behind a thin veil of legitimate concern over injuries/well being.  The truth of the matter is that anyone at anytime can get hurt.   If we apply this logic across the board, then clearly following Barbaro’s injury we should have stopped all colts from running as well. 

The next line of comments goes something like this:

  • “I’m going to be soooo mad if Mine That Bird wins the Belmont, because that will mean Rachel robbed us of a Triple Crown!”

Huh??? I almost have to throw up in my mouth a bit when I hear this.  Almost.  Do people even think before they speak?  She “robbed” you of a Triple Crown?  For starters, let’s not forget that the Belmont hasn’t been run yet, so hold your horses (no pun intended) on anointing Mine That Bird even a theoretical Triple Crown winner.   Da’ Tara, Birdstone, and Rags to Riches come to mind in recent memory as clear cut examples of why you never assume a Belmont’s outcome before it’s official. More importantly though, did Rachel Alexandra somehow cheat in the Preakness?  Did I miss something?  I’m just trying to understand how she “robbed” anyone of anything?  If she “robbed” anyone, it was other network programs, as television ratings for the Preakness were through the freakin’ roof.  You’d think people would be smart enough to see a star who is exactly what we need when they see one, but apparently not. 

Didn’t Mine That Bird have a fair shot to beat her in the Preakness?   Didn’t Rachel have to break from the extreme outside, set fairly fast splits being contested all the way, and then hang on in the stretch to win?  That’s not robbing, that’s earning, and last time I checked, a horse needs to EARN a Triple Crown.  That’s what makes it special.  Otherwise we might as well just poll the public for who they’d like to see win and simply declare that horse the winner without ever racing.   I can see Dennis Green now, banging on a table and telling reporters to “crown their asses, then!” when asked questions concerning the Chicago Bears.  Same goes here.  You want a Triple Crown so bad that you’re angry when a horse legitimately defeats a hopeful?  Then crown their asses before the race and don’t even bother running.

 

Also, if I may sidestep for just a gosh darn moment…..where the hell were these people in ’07 when Rags to Riches came out of nowhere to “rob” Curlin???  That was MUCH closer to grand larceny than anything Rachel’s done.  

When pressed, most of these people reference the fact that we “haven’t had a Triple Crown winner in 30 years” and that they’d “like to live to see one.”  Oh really?   Wow…didn’t realize they were so into history.  Forgive me, then.   It’s just that, well, you know…there are still plenty of folks alive who remember watching and wagering on the last Triple Crown winner.  On the other hand, how many folks have you run into out there that remember Nellie Morse in the 1924 Preakness?  Yeah…didn’t think so.   If you’re going to reference history, then at least acknowledge that 85 years is a hell of a lot longer than 3 decades to wait to see something happen.   Then again, we do live in the age of “instant gratification”, more’s the pity.

Look, I’ve got nothing but respect for Mine That Bird now either.  He’s a magnificent colt that we ought to see for years to come, considering he’s a gelding.   It’s just that I refuse to see him as some victim of a heinous crime.  I remember the cat calls from all the Curlin haters back in ’07.  “Curlin got beat by a girl!”  Yeah, well, so did Mine That Bird, and the girl that beat him wasn’t as fresh as the girl that beat Curlin (nor was Mine That Bird as worn down as Curlin was).  Personally I don’t consider the “beat by a girl” thing to be anything but the most childish of equine put-downs, as it never seems to apply to the horses that were truly beaten by open lengths (i.e., did you ever hear anyone say “Tiago got beat by a girl!” or “Hard Spun got beat by a girl!” ?  Nope, it was always directed at Curlin…hell, at least he was competitive against a girl.  How far back were Hard Spun and Tiago in the ’07 Belmont by comparison?). 

The last  line of thinking that really grinds my gears goes like this:

  • Rachel was exhausted in the Preakness, there’s no way she could get the mile and 1/2 of the Belmont.”

When I hear things like this, I wish I was instantly teleported to a face to face handicapping tournament, winner take all, as obviously these folks think that every race is totally equal and not unique at all. 

“Oh lord, won’t you buy me, a tour-na-ment ticket, my friends don’t know horses, I must make amends…”

Yes, Rachel was struggling a bit at the end of the Preakness.  How that is supposed to directly translate into defeat or an inability to get the distance of the Belmont is beyond me.  Are the two races supposed to be apples to apples?  Have folks even considered that the entire pace setup could not only be completely different between the two races, but also explains rather clearly why Rachel was a bit tired at the end of the Preakness?

Consider the following stats.  Here are the opening  1/4 mile and 1/2 mile splits between the ’08 Belmont and the “09 Preakness.  Something should jump off the page at you regarding the half mile times in particular, even if you’ve never so much as thought about pace handicapping:

2008 Belmont:

  • opening 1/4 – :23.82
  • opening 1/2 – :48.30

2009 Preakness:

  • opening 1/4 mile – :23.00
  • opening 1/2 mile – :46.25

See that?  Two full seconds faster in the opening half mile of the 2009 Preakness!   And why was that exactly?   Well, several reasons.  In the 2008 Belmont, Da’ Tara got an easy lead.  Even on the race replay you can hear the call that the opening half mile was set in a “sensible” time of :48.30.   That’s what happens when you have a longer race, and a loose horse on the lead.  The pace of longer races tends to be slower than that of shorter races, hence why horses who show speed routing can’t always be trusted to do the same when sprinting, whereas horses that show speed sprinting often will show similar (if not improved) speed routing. 

In the ’09 Preakness, Rachel had to earn it every step of the way.   She broke from the 13 hole, and had no choice but to gun for the lead or risk being hung wide on the turns.  Anyone familiar with playing the Maryland tracks knows full well how vitally important positioning on the turns, and in particular the first turn, can be.   Of course, Big Drama happened to be along the rail, and likewise was in a situation where he had to go for it right out of the gate.  The result was a speed duel.  Typically, if you see two horses eyeball to eyeball with each other through hotly contested opening fractions, you can expect them to start coming back to the rest of the field in the stretch, thus opening up for an off-the-pace runner.  It’s a testament to Rachel Alexandra’s class that this did not happen, and that the only runners able to make any headway against her were Mine That Bird, and to a lesser extent Musket Man.   That’s what made her win so impressive.   It shouldn’t have happened.  Most horses would not have pulled it off.  In fact, her opening splits were closer to those set by Xchanger and Flying First Class in the ’07 Preakness (1/4 in :22.83,  1/2 in :45.75), and obviously neither of them wound up in the Superfecta. 

So yes, she was struggling towards the end, but what exactly was she supposed to look like?  Even Chip Woolley, trainer of Mine That Bird, admitted that his colt was fresher by virtue of only really having to run the last 3/8 of a mile of both the Derby and the Preakness.  I’m sorry that she didn’t look as majestic as Big Brown in the ’08 Preakness, but she had a bit of a saltier field and a tougher trip to overcome.   Eyes can be deceiving though.  Again, apples to apples this most certainly is not.  

Each race is unique, and one must resist the urge of  looking at the ’09 Preakness replay and simpliifying by saying “yup, in another furlong Mine That Bird would’ve caught her.”   Would he?  Perhaps, but then again the entire race would’ve been different.  The only thing you can be assured of is that if THAT EXACT running of the Preakness happened again, but went a furlong further, that perhaps Mine That Bird would have caught her.  That’s it.  That’s the only certain conclusion one can make.  The rest is pure speculation or opinion….not that their’s anything wrong with either, necessarily, it’s just that when they are repeated as fact folks can get the wrong ideas.   I’m just saying keep that in mind when you hear folks spouting off (and yes, that includes me and indeed this rant right here).

Similarly, we must resist the urge of DEMANDING a rematch between either Rachel and The Bird in the Belmont, or Rachel and Zenyatta at some later date.   Would those races be exciting? Most definitely!  But we can’t reduce ourselves to the plebians in the Colliseum, demanding that Caesar show us another round of gladitorial combat.  Let the horsemen do what’s right for the horses, and let’s hope that we’re lucky enough to see them in their prime again before they are gone. 

In conclusion, here’s hoping Rachel enjoys her much deserved time off.  Rest up, baby girl.  There are big plans for you both this summer and beyond.  Personally, I’m hoping Jess sends her to Saratoga.  I can think of no other track more befitting of an appearance by the queen herself.   Now, if we could just get Zenyatta’s people to come face her….  :-)





Derby workout vids for Quality Road, Friesan Fire, and Chocolate Candy

23 04 2009

Gearing up for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, here’s a quick spin through some of the workout videos available on youtube.  In this round of clips we see Quality Road making his first workout since having his quarter crack patched, Friesan Fire turning in a nice AM drill, and Chocolate Candy getting a nice work with jockey Mike Smith in the saddle.

Quality Road 4/10/09 @ Belmont

 

Friesan Fire 4/14/09 @ Keeneland:

 

Chocolate Candy 4/12/09 @ Santa Anita








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