Saturday Stakes Selections – 6/13/09

12 06 2009

With the 2009 Triple Crown season behind us, it’s time to start looking forward to the summer campaigns ahead for many of the top horses in racing.  On Saturday at Churchill Downs, racing fans will be treated to at least one such horse in the marquee race of the day, the 28th running of the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap.  Einstein, a 7-year-old son of Spend a Buck, looks to inch closer to the $3 million dollar mark in lifetime earnings and cement his place as the top older male in the nation. 

Earlier in the day at Monmouth Park, the sensational 2008 Kentucky Derby champion Big Brown will be honored with a free bobblehead giveaway in his likeness for each paid admission.  From coast to coast and from noon to sundown (at least over here on the east coast),  major stakes races dot the calendar at Belmont, Philly, Churchill, Monmouth, and Hollywood. Here’s a quick rundown of the major stakes races I’ll be focusing on this weekend.

Belmont Park – Race 4:  The Ogden Phipps Handicap (G1) – 2:26 ET

Selections:

  • #3 Seattle Smooth (5/2)
  • #1A Music Note (2/5*)
  • #1 Seventh Street (2/5*)

We’ll start things off in the Ogden Phipps, for fillies and mares 3-years-old and upward going 1 1/16 miles over the main Belmont track.  Godolphin and Darley send out a very tough looking triple entry in #1 Seventh Street, #1A Music Note, and #1x Sea Chanter.  From a betting standpoint, let me just say that it’s absolutely infuriating to see a 7 horse race where 3 of the horses, nearly half the field, are a combined entry.  That’s real fair.  Thanks.  You know what?  I say we refuse to eat chalk here by playing against the obvious choice, and there just might be a horse in here who can get it done. 

It’ll take the race of her life, and we’ll be playing into the teeth of the overwhelming favorites, but why not take a ride on #3 Seattle Smooth?  Listed as 5/2 on the morning line, the improving 4-year-old daughter of Quiet American may have yet to reach her ceiling.  Another move forward and she’s suddenly very competitive with the favored trio, and note that she beat one of them last time out in the Shuvee.  The chalk looks tough, but there’s no fun in giving out 2/5  selections.  Live a little and take a shot with Seattle Smooth.

 

Philadelphia Park – Race 8: The Jostle ($200k) – 3:22 ET

Selections:

  • #2 Cinderella’s Wish (5/1)
  • #11 On the Menu (9/2)
  • #10 Union City (8/1)

We take a rare journey to Philadelphia Park for the 3rd running of The Jostle, for 3-year-old fillies sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track.  We’ve got a full field of 12 runners in what appears to be a very interesting betting race.  As is usually the case with me when it comes to the ladies, I’ve got my heart set on one girl here.  Anyone who was following along with our tweets on Black Eyed Susan Day during Preakness weekend will have no trouble figuring out who it is. 

#2 Cinderella’s Wish absolutely wowed me in the paddock…until she got a bit unruly and began kicking wildly.  She was up against a very sharp looking Steven Asmussen runner in the overwhelming favorite that day, Heart Ashley.  Cinderella’s Wish was 10/1 on the line that day, while Heart Ashley was odds on top choice.  As the field turned for home, it looked like Heart Ashley was toying with the field.  With about a furlong to go, however, Cinderella’s Wish made up her mind to put in a serious charge, and darn near nailed Heart Ashley at the wire.  It took a photo finish to sort things out, and in the end she was just a head short.  From where I sat it looked  a lot closer than that, and in fact I thought she had actually defeated Heart Ashley.  She’s my pick of the day.  Lock and load.   Go get ‘em, baby girl! 

 #11 On the Menu and #10 Union City are two I’d pay close attention to in the post parade, provided you have the opportunity to do so.  Either one could run big today.  I’m taking a stand against the morning line favorite, #5 Saarlight, despite that one’s speed.  This race should be quick, which should set up nicely for Cinderella’s Wish and On the Menu.

 

Monmouth Park – Race 9:  The Monmouth Stakes ($200k) – 4:50 ET

Selections:

  • #1 Proudinksy (3/1*)
  • #7 Presious Passion (9/2)
  • #4 Grand Couturier (7/2)

What’s this?  I must have gone mad. After playing against rather solid favorites in the first two races we’ve covered, I’m now going with a lukewarm 3/1 favorite in the Monmouth Stakes?  Strange things happen when bobbleheads are introduced into the equation.  Nothing is as it seems.  I actually thought Grand Couturier would be the favorite here, and he still may be come post time.  While I think he’s a factor here, it’s the long layoff that concerns me the most, and the fact that he seems to be prepping for the Man O’ War later this summer. 

Presious Passion is a very dangerous horse who would be the pick if we were going just a bit further.  It doesn’t appear that 1 1/8 miles is his best distance.  He’ll be tough though.  That leaves Proudinksy as the selection, and he appears to have many things going for him.  He’s lethal at this distance, he’s making the 2nd start of his form cycle, and he’s dropping in from the Grade 1 ranks where he came up a bit flat in his last effort.  I always seem to wind up with this guy in my picks.  I’ll hop aboard again this weekend. 

Another runner that I think has an outside shot here (quite literally) is #9 Kiss the Kid.  His effort in the Dixie has the effect of darkening his form, but he did finish within 2 1/2 lengths of the winner.  Lord knows I love me some Lemon Drops.  If he looks good in the post parade, I might take a stab with him.  

 

Churchill Downs – Race 10: The Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) – 5:29 ET

Selections:

  • #6 Bullsbay (10/1)
  • #3 Einstein (2/1*)
  • #5 Researcher (4/1)

The feature race of the day is the return to the dirt for the versatile Einstein.  The old boy is making quite a name for himself with the ability to win on seemingly any surface.  I’m on record as saying I prefer him slightly on turf, but he’s got the class and the guts to get the job done here. 

He won’t get away with it easy, however.  Two rivals in particular look very intriguing.  Bullsbay is currently listed as 10/1 on the morning line.  That’s absolute theft for a  gutsy son of Tiznow who hasn’t been out of the exacta in the last 6 races he’s finished (he did pull up in the Donn Handicap back in January).  I guess folks are worried about the class hike, but this is a Tiznow we’re talking about.  They’re always fighters.  Plus, look at the connections.  It’s Graham Motion!  One of my favorite trainers.  That’s too much for me.  A favorite sire that I like to play and a favorite trainer against what is sure to be an overwhelming favorite?  I’ll take the chance and go with Bullsbay in a win bet here. 

Don’t get me wrong.  I do believe Einstein will come home on top, but at 10/1 it’s impossible to ignore Bullsbay.  Researcher is another intriguing runner who is stepping up in class and is exiting back to back big wins at Charles Town.  The presence of jockey Calvin Borel means that he’ll take plenty of play at the windows, but he’s another that must be considered if you’re looking to catch a price. 

One other note about Churchill – don’t miss Warrior’s Reward in the Northern Dancer (race 8, post time 4:29 ET).  He’s a Medaglia d’Oro 3-year-old.  Enough said.

 

Hollywood Park – Race 9: The Californian (G2) – 5:00 PT

Selections:

  • #4 Aitcho (8/1)
  • #3 Rail Trip (5/2*)
  • #6 Song of Navarone (8/1)

We wind up the afternoon with the feature race from Hollywood Park, the 56th running of the Grade 2 Californian for 3-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles over the main track.   Rail Trip and Ball Four look to lock horns again and are likely to be considered the top threats for this race.  Last out, Ball Four was able to pull the upset by wiring the field and holding off today’ top choice, along with another useful runner in this field, Dakota Phone.  This race looks wide open, so make sure you spread fairly deep if playing the exotics.  Ultimately, I thought Rail Trip would prove to be the better horse, but it’s entirely possible that the distance may not be to his liking. 

As such, I went with the improving Aitcho for trainer John Shirreffs. As is the case with Zenyatta, Shirreffs teams up with jockey Mike Smith here with Aitcho, and the son of Stromy Atlantic looks to test the stakes waters for the first time following his most recent victory at the allowance level.  Is this an acid test?  Sure.  Do his previous races stack up with the best of other runners in this field?  Not exactly, but he does have upside, and at  8/1 he offers value on the tote board.  Mary Forney recently caught up with Aitcho schooling in the paddock and has a nice picture if you’d like to get a glimpse.  Looks like a fine colt to me. 

Another interesting bomber that should be a large price on the board is Song of Navarone.  He’s never been on synthetics before, which will scare most folks away.  But c’mon…he’s run (and won multiple times) at the vaunted Sunland Park.  You aren’t going to toss anything coming from Sunland are you? Victor Espinoza’s in the saddle.  Obviously this will all come down to how well this runner likes the surface, but the possibility is there.  I’m just sayin’.  Let the post parade factor into your ultimate decision, but do not totally overlook Aitcho or Song of Navarone.

That’ll just about do it for this weekend.  Don’t forget to check out Indian Blessing and Kip Deville on Sunday.  ‘Blessing will be sprinting in the Desert Stormer Handicap at Hollywood Park, while Kip Deville will return in the Grade 3 Poker Stakes.

Best of luck to all and enjoy the weekend.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Churchill Downs, Einstein, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Indian Blessing, Music Note

Fountain of Youth a race of intrigue

27 02 2009

In the 16th century, Spanish explorer and conquistador Ponce de Leon is rumored to have searched high and wide for the mythical Fountain of Youth in order to cure his natural aging.  He never did find it.  Trying to decipher Saturday’s 63rd running of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park might be just as difficult a proposition.  We’ve got an incredibly deep field of talented and up-and-coming 3-year-old colts all trying to stamp there name on the Kentucky Derby Trail.  Twelve horses are entered (although one is likely shipping west for the day’s other feature, the Sham at Santa Anita).  The field sets up like this:

Past Performances for the G2 Fountain of Youth are available here

  1. Be Cee Cee (C. Velasquez/E. Plesa Jr.) 30/1
  2. Theregoesjojo (K. Desormeaux/ K. McPeek) 15/1
  3. Notonthesamepage (E. Trujillo/W. Ward) 4/1
  4. Take the Points (C. Decarlo/T. Pletcher) 10/1
  5. Jack Spratt (R. Douglas/M. Maker) 20/1
  6. Rocketing Returns (J. Lezcano/N. Zito) 15/1
  7. Beethoven (C. Borel/J. Ward Jr.) 12/1
  8. Break Water Edison (E. Coa/J. Kimmel) 15/1
  9. Capt. Candyman Can (J. Leparoux/I. Wilkes) 5/1
  10.  Taqarub (A. Garcia/K. McLaughlin) 6/1
  11.  Quality Road (J. Velazquez Jr./ J. Jerkens) 8/1
  12.  This Ones for Phil (E. Prado/R. Dutrow) 3/1*

Most of the attention in this race will likely be focused on what I refer to as the “Beyer freaks.”  That probably doesn’t need an explanation from most horseplayers.  Obviously this means “Phil” and “Not”.  If they run anything like those speed figures here, this race won’t be much of a mystery at all. 

The trouble with just blindly taking “Not” , who has the better post position (in theory) of the two is that he is likely to be involved in what appears to be a fairly hotly contested early pace in this race.   You get the feeling he is the speed, but Quality Road and Taqarub would appear to have something to say about that.  He also has the look of a sprinter when going over his running lines.  Sure he can burn ‘em at 6 furlongs and shorter, but can he do it going 8?  I’d say at 4/1 you make him prove it first.

“Phil” presents an altogether different problem in that he’s hung wide in the 12 hole.  Of course, we are talking trainer Rick Dutrow here – the man who got Big Brown to the winner’s circle in post 12 of the Florida Derby last year, and then from post 20 in the Kentucky Derby. I actually think the outside provides “Phil” with a clean break, which is something he’ll need trying to save some ground early and then stalking the hot pace.  The danger for him is getting cooked if the fractions are too hot up front.   That being said, he seems the proverbial bounce candidate, and at 3/1 in a field with as many options as this, he does warrant taking a chance against.   Respect him for sure, but don’t be paralyzed with fear over his Beyers. 

Ultimately this race does set up for a horse coming from off the pace.  The question for me is “how far off the pace?”  Let’s say Phil were to get burned up front early on.  Then what?   Well, 3 horses who could benefit are Capt. Candyman Can (5/1), Beethoven (12/1), and Break Water Edison (15/1).  Those are some decent prices, especially when you consider that two races back Beethoven beat Capt. Candyman Can.  Assuming we do get the expected pace scenario up front, and that we’re playing on the idea that to beat the favorite (“Phil”), we’d have to hope he gets a little tired  trying to keep up with the early pace, that really sets things up for Beethoven and Break Water Edison.

I know Beethoven is a popular upset pick form many handicappers, so I’m obviously not the only one seeing him with a huge chance here.  The race has to fall into his lap though as I don’t think that with all things being equal he can quite outrun the main rivals today.  

Breakwater Edison is my longshot bomber for the race.  Two months ago this guy might have been favored here.  Now he’s 15/1.  All he’s done in between is had one horrible trip.  We’ve all seen this before.  Is that last trip the “real” Break Water Edison, or were his runs in the end of his 2-year-old campaign more formful?  He was definitely facing (at least at that stage in their development) better when he faced off against Vineyard Haven, Cribnote, and Munnings on back to back occasions.  He’s Lemon Drop, so you know he likes all the extra ground (and experience) he can get.   There’s a lot to like about this guy at 15/1 is all I’m saying.  You can’t always come up with ways why a 15/1 can win a race like this, so being able to foresee him closing late into a hot early pace makes me think this guy could be a player here.

Quality Road and Taqarub look like very good horses, but they’d be a lot more appealing to me if they were the only speed in this race.  It seems to me that to win they are going to have to show they can relax a bit stretching out, which might be asking just a tad too much against this rather salty competition.

Honestly there’s a million ways you could go with this one.  I’m going bombing with my picks.  I’m playing Beethoven to win for $20, and putting him on top of my 10 cent Superfecta.  I’ll probably use “Phil”, Break Water Edison, and Capt. Candyman Can in second.   I like Theregoesjojo enough to add him in third, and Bee Cee Cee seems to have a tendency to wind up hitting the board as well.  I’ll add in Quality Road and “Not” for the bottom of the ticket.

Selections:

  • $20 Win:  #7 Beethoven
  • $.10 Superfecta: 7/8,9,12/1,2,8,9,12/1,2,3,8,9,11,12 ($6.00)

Best of luck to all. You wont’ get any argument out of me if you play “Phil” or the Capt. as the scenarios where they could win are just as likely (if not more).   Whatever you do, make sure you watch this one if you can as it looks like the best Derby prep that we’ve had thus far…at least on paper.


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail

Curlin becomes a $75k stud; Shakis is euthanized

22 11 2008

 

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…”

 

 

- Charles Dickens

 

Once again we have mixed emotions swirling throughout the landscape of thoroughbred horse racing.  One piece of news reminding us of the dangers that still exist, the other reminding us of the glory of what has been and what may be again.

Curlin, the 2007 Horse of the Year, is officially finished.  No more rumors about a potential “last race.”  He’s standing stud at Lane’s End for $75,000.  He’ll take his class, speed, and stamina and attempt to become a champion stud now rather than a champion runner.  If he’s half the stud he was a racehorse, the breed will do well to get the infusion of his talents and abilities.

I’m no breeding expert by far, but my personal hope is that perhaps he is paired with a Giant’s Causeway or A.P. Indy mare.  What little I know (or at least I think I know) about breeding makes me think those pairings might be intriguing.  The part I’m somewhat uncertain about is how the ubiquitous Mr. Prospector lineage might limit his ability to breed successfully with many of the bigger named mares?  Oh well, we’ll let all of that play out on it’s own.

In perhaps his final “competition”, Curlin nudged out “rival” (I say that with quotes as it’s hard to consider two colts who never faced one another “rivals” in the true sense of the word, however I’ll submit that the drama filled exchanges between each colt’s camp was enough to warrant special rivalry consideration for the purposes of the point I’m making) Big Brown by $10,000 in terms of his stud fee.  That’s just one more notch on his belt, I suppose.  Although I suppose that says more about me than it does about Curlin that I actually take pride in that fact.

Ironically though, his $75,000 fee is decidedly less (roughly half) of what his father, the super sire Smart Strike, now commands at stud.  Like father like son.  You know what they say, the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree. Hopefully that holds true for Curlin’s offspring as well.

I still think his story is one of the most amazing in recent memory.  A $57,000 purchase in 2004 who went on to win 11 of 16 races and become thoroughbred racing’s first “$10 million man.”  It’s the stuff of legends.  It may be quite some time, especially at the rate the top thoroughbreds are presently retired once they achieve greatness, before we see another career like his. 

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In totally unrelated news, the two time winner of the Bernard Baruch Handicap at Saratoga, Shakis, had to be euthanized yesterday.  Apparently  he was injured during a workout and had to be put down. 

Those who have followed this blog may remember my long standing strained emotions with respect to Shakis.  Like many horseplayers, I probably held too much of a grudge against him for my own foolish handicapping.  During Preakness Day 2008,  Shakis was upset by longshot Pays to Dream in the Dixie Stakes.  This was the only race in the Pick 6 sequence that I lost.  My emotions are forever captured in the Cindy Pierson Dulay photograph below, as Pays to Dream crosses the line and I flash Shakis a look of strong disapproval for his performance (I’m the guy in the yellow hat/blue shirt in the left of the image – and I’m glaring right at Shakis). Like I said though, that was my fault for doing shoddy handicapping and not the fault of Shakis.  Like all thoroughbreds, all he did was go out and give his all every time he ran.  Can’t knock a guy for giving his best.  I actually feel quite shameful now for ever having been upset with him.

 

Pays to Dream upsets Shakis in the 2008 Dixie Stakes at Pimlico. Photo by Cindy Pierson Dulay. www.horseracing.about.com

Pays to Dream upsets Shakis in the 2008 Dixie Stakes at Pimlico. Photo by Cindy Pierson Dulay. www.horseracing.about.com

 

Obviously that one race was not the entire story for Shakis’ career. Not only was he a two-time winner of the Bernard Baruch, but trainer Kiaran Mclaughlin called him a “barn favorite” and a “neat horse.’  It’s never a appropriate to joke about one of our horses going down, and despite my shaky relationship as a bettor with him, I’d like to take this moment to officially state my condolences to all associated with Shakis.

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Lastly, just wanted to point out that the “why horse racing must tell its own story” column is now up on Bloodhorse and getting all kinds of feedback.  Some good, some bad.  One thing you know going into such an effort is that many (if not most) folks will resist, resist, resist, and will do nothing but criticize without offering anything constructive in retort.  The thing to remember is that even those people are committed fans who deep down want to see the sport succeed.  The way I look at it, if they are resisting, that just means we have an opportunity to do a better job of explaining.  Plus, you have to walk a mile in someone’s shoes, and no doubt they’ve been before where I am now  – young, dumb, and full of hope (ha! Thought that one might go a different way, didn’t ya?).  I know it failed miserably in Vietnam, but at some point we’ve just got to win their hearts and minds.  I’m convinced that our desires are the same. It’s our experiences, concerns, and expectations that are unique.


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Categories : Curlin, Horse Racing News

It’s gotta be the shoes!

23 06 2008

Photos are now being posted at ESPN showing that Big Brown, the 3-year-old son of Boundary that took a run at the Triple Crown earlier this year, may have been running with a loose shoe during the Belmont.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/gallery/enlargePhoto?id=3457690&story=3456907

Rumor of the photos began trickling in earlier in the day.  The photos do show a loose left rear shoe.  This should not be confused with his already injured left front hoof with the much publicized patch/crack issue.

What kind of an impact this may have had on the colt remains in question, but clearly he didn’t fire his usual race that Saturday in New York.  Whether everything can be blamed on the shoe or some combination of the shoe, the heat, the trip that Big Brown received, and perhaps even a bit of heel clipping during the race will likely never be known. 

If true that his shoe was loose as it appears in the photos, Big Brown may have been running on a loose nail.  Yeah, the thought of that is enough to make you cringe a little bit.  Who knows?  Perhaps this happened when he seemed to clip heels?  The photos are purportedly taken within the first 200 yards of the race. 

WIll this mystery ever be solved? Probably not, but does anyone else find it ironic that our bids for Triple Crowns since Affirmed in 1978 have perhaps been foiled by a safety pin (Spectacular Bid in 1978 ) and a nail (Big Brown in 2008)? 

Sources:

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=3456907

http://news.bloodhorse.com/article/45846.htm

 


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Categories : Big Brown

Friday morning funnies – Curlin and Big Brown smack talk

20 06 2008

An anonymous poster left a link to this youtube video in my last post.  I thought it was funny enough to share with you all on Friday morning.  It features Curlin and Big Brown talking a bit of “smack talk” to each other.

My favorite moments:

Big Brown to Curlin: “One of us got beat by a girl!”

Curlin to Big Brown: “Tom Durkin just called and said you finally crossed the wire in the Belmont”

 

I’ll be back with some Hollywood Park picks for tonight when I get home from work (roughly 6PM EST) for anyone interested in playing along.


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Categories : Big Brown, Curlin

Triple Crown hopes trashed

8 06 2008

Hopes and dreams for a Triple Crown trashed like so much garbage

 

Another year, another chance at a Triple Crown, and the results are the same.  Trash.  Nothing but trash.  Millions are howling today as small fortunes were lost betting on what appeared to be a “sure thing” in the Belmont.  What happened?  What went wrong?  How could the unthinkable have happened?

We should’ve been smarter, is the short answer.  NOTHING in sports is a sure thing, and that goes ten-fold for thoroughbred racing. We’ve been here before.  It’s not like this is the first time we thought we had a “lock” for the Triple Crown, and yet once again we all drank the kool-aid and singled on a horse that appeared to be heads and shoulders above the rest.

I used to tell people every year to “bet the longshot” in the Belmont.  The Derby, I used to say, was a crap-shoot where one of the best horses would win depending on who got the best trip.  The Preakness was the real “fair” test where the best colt usually prevailed.  The Belmont had always been a freak-show of shattered dreams and ridiculous longshots.  On Saturday that trend continued with Da’ Tara – who we last saw losing in the stretch to Roman Emperor – wiring the field as lone speed to return $72 to win in the upset of the year over as-yet undefeated Big Brown.  He was the lone speed in the race.  He had Nick Zito as a trainer.  Why didn’t we give him a better chance? 

To be fair, minutes before the race I loaded up an additional round of tri’s including him in 2nd and 3rd thinking ” he’s a Tiznow colt and he will  be out in front,”  but I never imagined he’d actually win – not with Big Brown’s patented cruising speed.  And yet that’s exactly what happened.

To say this was a disappointment doesn’t do justice to the mood that followed for many on site.  For fans of the sport this was the golden moment we had been waiting for.  The moment where our friends and family, who think we’re half-crazed nuts for being horseplayers, would finally see what it is that captivates us – sheer greatness.  Instead all was lost and now one gets the feeling that the sport may well slip back into obscurity again until another colt (or filly) rises to the occasion and gets our hearts pounding at the prospect of making a run at history. 

On the plus side,  Rick Dutrow’s words finally came back to  haunt him.   Regular readers know I had called on folks to support Big Brown because A) I thought he was unbeatable against these 3 year-olds,  and B) A Triple Crown win was EXACTLY what our sport needed.  Then, Dutrow opened his mouth and started bashing everyone else, including a few uncalled for salvos against my beloved Curlin.   I have to be honest here. Even though I lost a small fortune myself (including pick 4 tickets, trifectas, and a 5-of-6 rebate on a pick 6), it was all worth it to see that guy eat crow after what he had said.  Of course, I feel for the horse and hope he is okay. Everything I’ve read thus far indicates he is, thank god.  Big Brown never did anything himself to warrant hatred just because his trainer had no idea of how to handle with class his moment in the spotlight. 

I also want to be honest here and say that something strikes me about this whole situation as being rather fishy.  I have no proof of this and almost don’t want to suggest it, but does the following situation bother anyone else?  Consider first that Pete Rose is not in the MLB Hall of Fame because he gambled on sports – including games involving his own team – despite the fact that no evidence exists that he ever bet against his own club.  If you’re betting your team to win, where’s the conflict of interest?    Yesterday at Belmont, the potential for something at tad more insidious reared it’s ugly head.  Again, this could be totally wrong, but it’s worth considering if nothing else.   We knew Big Brown had a quarter crack.  We knew he might not be 100%, yet all connected with the horse assured us he was in fine form.   What if the fix was in?   Forgive me for being so negative, but I think you have to be a tad sceptical when tens of millions of dollars are changing hands.  Add to the fact that we’re dealing with Dutrow here – not exactly an ambassador of integrity.

In fairness, the track veterinarian has indicated that the horse was not lame before the race, and that he appeared fine afterwards. Also, for what it’s worth – he looked like a champion to me in the post parade.  I was watching his hoof – he showed no obvious signs of discomfort, and he didn’t really seem to be favoring one leg or the other from what I could see after the race.  Those watching on TV probably got a better look though. I was in a sea of college aged idiots who had pissed me off all day long by taking forever at the betting windows. More on that in a moment.  He (Big Brown) wasn’t sweating at all, and his coat looked fantastic.  Denis of Cork looked like the other standout – with his ears pointed sharply up in an almost jack-rabbit fashion.  I even pointed them out to the folks I was with saying “look at his ears!” 

Oh well.  So goes life I suppose.  As horseplayers you rip up your tickets and move on.  There will be another day, and we’ll have better ones as handicappers.  Some races just leave you scratching your head saying “WTF????” 

For Big Brown, I’m hoping his camp decides to retire him rather than risking a more serious injury.  If it was the hoof that bothered him, then I don’t think he should be pressed on.  They’ve got a $50 million stud deal lined up after all.  Of course, that bothers me on a whole different level, as now I fear we’ll see highly priced offspring that carry on his brittle tendencies.  Not exactly what a sport in dire need of a stamina infusion to the bloodlines needs.

As for the rest of the day – I had a blast, even if we didn’t see history unfold before our eyes.  At the end of the day Curlin is still #1 in the world, and if he goes on to win his remaining races could be looking at a repeat Horse of the Year title – something that would have been next to impossible to accomplish in the shadows of a Big Brown Triple Crown.  I also got to hang out with an old friend, and some very entertaining horseplayers.  I’m hoping to meet up with those guys again at Saratoga later in the summer.  I also got to meet many of my fellow TBA bloggers in person for the first time!  I should have a picture of that which I’ll add below here to this post any moment now.  Perhaps best of all, I had a severely ego-boosting moment when I spied someone reviewing a printout of my Belmont selections in the betting line.  I didn’t say anything to him, but whoever you were mystery man – you made my day. I just hope you were betting one of the winners I gave out and not one of the losers.  I think I was around 50% overall, but I had a few check-marks get across.  Like most of you, I did lose all the big bets thanks to Big Brown. 

The situation at the track couldn’t have been less conducive to having a good time though, so I really want to thank the folks I was with.  The bathrooms stopped working with over 100,000 people on site?  How does that happen?  On the hottest day of the year there’s no running water?  That’s almost criminal.  Someone’s head should roll for that.   I nearly burst a kidney waiting in line for a single port-o-pot before someone spotted me in agony and pointed out an area out-of-sight (and totally unmarked) were several dozen were grouped together.  As if that weren’t bad enough, one of our guys spent all day smoking pulled pork for sandwiches, and had packed lunch and sodas for the entire gang.  Would you believe we couldn’t even bring the cooler in?  That wouldn’t have been so bad if we hadn’t seen NYRA staff consciously turning a blind eye to underage kids dumping out gatorade and replacing it with vodka right in front of their eyes!  Which is worse in your opinion?  Letting a group of serious gamblers who are going to lay down a hefty chunk of change come in with sandwiches, or letting a bunch of 19 year-old college kids get wasted in the sun on pure-grain and vodka?  Apparently the NYRA staff decided on the former.  Unbelievable.   Oh, and these same kids – probably responsible for us getting shut out of race after race.  We’d go to the windows with as many as 15 minutes to post – and you’d literally stand still in line for over 10 minutes.  What the hell could possibly take so long?  Honestly, folks, if you’re reading this – and I know I like to reach out to newcomers here – make sure you know what the hell you’re doing before you get in line.   NOTHING, and I mean NOTHING should take more than 60 seconds at a betting window.  Of course, it doesn’t help when the tellers have never heard of a “wheel” bet and have no clue how to key in anything but a “box” bet.  I know it must be mind blowing to those tellers that not all of us want to burn money on wasted box combination and would prefer to single on top of our tickets.   How unthinkable! 

Honestly, the cumulative result of this is that apart from forays to the nicer tracks such as Saratoga, Del Mar, and Santa Anita, I know I’m largely of the opinion that it’s easier these days to stay at home.   I hate that being the case, but it’s true.  Pimlico I must say did a fantastic job on Preakness day from where I was sitting in the Turfside Terrace, but I suppose that’s to be expected considering the cost of those tickets.  I’m sure the General Admission area was a zoo on Preakness day as well.

So, I’ll sum this up by saying that today is a day for recharging our batteries.  Time to get away from the game for a few days andtake stock of the other things that matter in our life. Friends, family, barbecue and pc wargaming (LOL).

I’ll be back on Friday night for some Hollywood Park action.  You know the saying I’m fond of….hair of the dog that bit me and all, but for now I need to take a breather.  It’s been a long, exhausting Triple Crown season.  The good news is that the summer action is about to start heating up.  In just a few months we’ll get our first look at some of the two year olds whose names we could be talking about this time year.  That’s the beauty of horse racing.  The pain of losing is enormous, but it doesn’t last long.  Thanks for the memories this year, Big Brown – you were magnificent to make me like you despite your trainer’s classlessness.  Here’s wishing you a happy retirement if they chose to hang it up.  For a moment, you had the nation watching with baited breath – and not many colts in history can say that. Read the rest of this entry »


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Categories : Belmont Park, Big Brown, Horse Racing News, Triple Crown Coverage

Belmont Day selections

6 06 2008

Note: Breaking news just as I was about to leave:  Casino Drive may be out of the Belmont:

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2008/June/06/casino-drive-physi

Saturday.  Belmont Day. Triple Crown Day…perhaps a date with history. Thirteen races are scheduled, with the feature of course being the 140th running of the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes – a race that will see Big Brown try to become the first colt in 30 years to capture the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978.  There are 5 other graded stakes on the card, including the Just a Game (G1), The Acorn (G1), the True North Handicap (G2), the Woody Stephens (G2), and the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap (G1). 

Some of the finest names in all of horse racing will be on the track in addition to Big Brown. The Acorn has drawn Indian Blessing, long thought to be the finest filly in the country before Proud Spell was able to turn the tables on her back in March. The True North Handicap features one of the fastest horses on the planet in Benny the Bull. Last, but certainly not least, the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap features what could be the final run in the magnificent career of “Blackie”, better known to many as Better Talk Now.

I’ve handicapped the first 11 races on the card, culminating in the Belmont Stakes. I figured I’d be battling traffic out the track by the time that was over, or (knock on wood) standing in line to cash a few tickets.  I’m headed up to NY in just a few hours, so I wanted to share this with you as quick as possible.  You guys will have over 24 hours to dissect/discuss/debate. Without further adieu, let’s take a look at each race. 

Race 1:  ALW 65000 N1X  – 3↑ (6 Furlongs)

  • #1 Desert Key/ #1A Forest of Dreams (3/1*)
  • #11 Accredit (4/1)
  • #7 Commandeered (7/2)

If both portions of the entry of #1 Desert Key and #1A Forest of Dreams draw into the race, they look quite formidable to overcome.  Of the two, I prefer #1 Desert Key who looks slightly more consistent and with only 3 races under hist belt is eligible to move forward.  Note that Desert Key finished behind Ready’s Image by 3/4 of a length last out.  You may want to use this colt as a measuring stick for how well Ready’s Image may perform as the 2/1 favorite in today’s 9th race – the Woody Stephens (G2).  #11 Accredit has been a solid colt thus far in his career.  Really only  his debut was of poor quality. He appears to have been training well over the synthetics as of late, and his Beyer figures could improve with a return to dirt today.  #7 Commandeered took some play in the Hirsch Jacobs (G3) on Preakness day, despite being up against two quick ones in Lantana Mob and Force Freeze (not to mention Silver Edition – who we will also see in today’s 9th race).  A longshot to keep an eye on may be #8 Golden Age.  That debut Beyer figure of 95 hints at talent, although he’ll face quite a bit more than Md Sp Wt $16k company today.

Race 2: Md Sp Wt 62k 3↑ (6 1/2 Furlongs)

  • #6 Tiz It (5/2*)
  • #4 White Tie (6/1)
  • #2 Zong (6/1)

This race is pretty wide open. I don’t usually like to take the favorite in maiden races, but for a maiden #6 Tiz It has been up against some stiff competition in his 5 lifetime starts.  Just look at those names in his past performance lines:  Massive Drama, Smoth Air, Silver Edition, Halo Najib.  I like that he perked up a bit last time out here and ran a 99 Beyer, although buyers must be ware as his last highest Beyer (90) was promptly followed with a career bounce (60).  I settled on two expensive purchases for my 2nd and 3rd choices, although I think there are a number of ways folks could go.  #4 White Tie was a $1.3 million purchase in August of 2006.  It looks like he’s been working well in the mornings and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is known to be productive with 1st time starters.  Likewise, #2 Zong was a $1.7 million purchase in November of 2005. Besides these two, I think #7 Sixthirteen (7/2), #3 Bob’s Star (5/1), and #10 Golden Weekend (3/1) were all very playable as well.

Race 3: Md Sp Wt 57k – 3↑ (1 1/8 Miles – Inner Turf Track)

  • #4 Piazza Di Spagna (5/1)
  • #8 Smart Enuf (8/5*)
  • #5 Seeking No More (6/1)

This was a weird race to handicap.  I settled on #4 Piazza Di Spagna as I thought he might perk up a bit wirh Ramon Dominguez aboard if he could get  a clean trip.  I also thought he had the more favorable post position for the inner turf track than some of the other contenders.  #8 Smart Enuf returns to the grass, which should help him, plus he’ll likely be on or near the lead.   #5 Seeking No More was running hurdles in 2 of his last 3.  If nothing else he ought to have the conditioning for this event as he was running over 2 miles in each of those races. For a longer shot, call me crazy, but the #9 Marsaponi has room to improve after joining trainer Thomas Bush’s barn.  Note that while he hasn’t run well, he was facing Icabad Crane (3rd place finisher in the Preakness) and Cannonball.   I’d expect improvement today.

Race 4: OC 50k/N2X – 3↑ (1 Mile)

  • #4 Forefathers (3/1*)
  • #6 Mobo (4/1)
  • #11 Teide (5/1)

Today’s 4th race is an interesting affair.  #4 Forefathers looks plenty dangerous here dropping in from Grade 3 territory.  This is a guy who’s faced the likes of Daaher, Deadly Dealer, Elite Squadron, and Midnight Lute.  He’s capable of turning in duds, but this ought to set him up nicely. Note how he ran a triple digit Beyer (100) when dropped into Alw48000 territory back in March. He should be able to get a nice off-the pace trip running into some decent splits today.   #6 Mobo  has turned in two stellar double digit win performances in a row, winning by a combined 22 lengths.  Sure it gets harder today, but any kind of step forward will find this one being tough to defeat.  There is a bit of pace pressure in this race when looking at the form, but this guy has pulled away beautifully in the stretch each of those last two, not just held on begging for the wire.  #11 Teide draws the extreme outside, but has turned in several sharp races in a row.  Sure he was beaten chalk last out, and in fact beaten by another of today’s rivals (#6 Firejack), but that was over the synthetic track at Keeneland, so it’s really almost a toss.

Race 5: Alw 59000 N1X – 3↑ (6 1/2 Furlongs)

  • #4 Wonforthegoodguys (15/1)
  • #9 Too Tough Pete (5/1)
  • #12 Benny the Waiter (3/1*)

Did I really wind up on a 15/1 here?  It appears so – although this guy isn’t really a bad 15/1 when you look at him. #4 Wonforthegoodguys has been a tough claiming competitor for the entire year, and has been pretty consistent if you toss out that start three back.  His Beyer’s may not be sexy, but they aren’t that far off what it would take to win here.  Plus he’s got an inspiring name. I like him.  #9 Too Tough Pete exits a maiden score over the track last time out and has been well bet in each lifetime start.  #12 Benny the Waiter almost looks like Benny the Bull light – okay maybe not.  But he sounds like him, doesn’t he?  Is this a Benny-filled day?  Dare I say – Beneful? 

Race 6:  The True North Handicap – Grade 2 – 3YO  (6 Furlongs)

  • #7 Benny the Bull (4/5*)
  • #4 Abraaj (5/1)
  • #2 Thor’s Echo (7/2)

Benny the Bull is one of the fastest horses on earth and should be a force to contend with here.  Perhaps the only thing his rivals can hope for is a “Dubai bounce” as he returns from a score in the $2,000,000 Golden Shaheen (Grade 1). #4 Abraaj would appear to be the only entry with the speed figures capable of contending.  Even so, he’s stepping up today and would need a career best to contend. #2 Thor’s Echo could be a player if he returns to the form he showed in 2006.  The trouble is that he’s shown nothing of note since, including two less than appealing starts in Dubai in 2007 and nothing so far in 2008. He has been training well though. A longshot that I don’t think is getting the credit he deserves is #6 Council Member at 20/1.  This guy is coming off non embarrassing Stakes tries and could well wind up in the money.  I’ll say the same about #5 Suave Jazz who was a neck away from winning on Preakness day.   Don’t discount these guys totally from hitting for minor shares.

Race 7: The Just A Game – Grade 1 – Fillies and Mares 3↑ (1 Mile – Turf)

  • #10 Vacare (3/1*)
  • #5 Criminologist (9/2)
  • #1 Lady of Venice (4/1)

#10 Vacare looks to be the one to beat here. She’s faced some of the better older females in the country, including Precious Kitten, Wait a While, and an old favorite of mine I still wish was running – Citronnade. The outside post is a bit of a concern, but she’s classy enough to handle it. #1 Lady of Venice is a fighter who lately has been settling for minor awards.  #5 Criminologist looks tough to me here today.  She’s won 5 of her last 6 races! I wouldn’t discount several others from winding up in the money here either, such as #3 Bit of Whimsy, and #4 Ventura.

Race 8: The Acorn – Grade 1 – Fillies 3YO (1 Mile)

  • #2 Indian Blessing (1/1*)
  • #3 Game Face (5/2)
  • #1 Zaftig (3/1)

Don’t be too fooled by the 5 horse field and the presence of one of the top fillies in the nation in #3 Indian Blessing – this one actually could be a battle. Indian Blessing cutting back to a mile should be enough to ensure the victory, but she’s running into some improving fillies in #1 Zaftig and #3 Game Face.  I wouldn’t leave #5 Golden Doc A totally out of it either as she’s given Indian Blessing all she can handle in the past as well.  This one is tougher than it seems, although it is Indian Blessing’s to lose. 

Race 9: The Woody Stephens – Grade 2 – 3YO (7 Furlongs)

  •  #5 J Be K (3/1)
  • #3 Silver Edition (5/1)
  • #2 Ready’s Image (2/1*)

The Woody Stephens looks wide open to me.  I think you’ve got a slightly vulnerable favorite here in Ready’s Image.  At one point last year this was one of the better 2 year-old colts in the nation.  I like his comeback in May over the track, but the competition gets tougher today. #5 J Be K has been getting better and better each time I see him.  Okay, he’s got one hiccup in the Louisiana Derby, but besides that he’s fired every time out.  The horse he lost to last time out, Harlem Rocker, is partially owned by a friend and fellow TBA blogger, and is a horse many of us thought might have the best chance to knock off Big Brown in the Preakness if he had run.  That’s definitely something to keep in mind.  #3 Silver Edition has been on the improve as well.  I saw his run on Preakness Day where he lost by a neck and thought it was most impressive.  A longshot to keep an eye on in the post parade is #9 Majestic Warrior.  At one point last year he was my pick for the 2008 KY Derby (we’re talking December ’07/January ’08 here - long before folks were even thinking of Big Brown).  I always expect better from him, and one of these days his talent will show up.  It’s just trying to figure out when that is maddening.

Race 10: The Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap – Grade 1 – 3↑ (1 1/4 Miles – Inner Turf)

  • #9 Proudinsky (7/2*)
  • #5 Out of Control ((4/1)
  • #10 Dancing Forever (5/1)

This is actually a sentimental race for me.  You see, one of my favorite horses on earth is racing in what for all I know could be his last start. Certainly it will be the last time I see him again.  #1 Better Talk  Now.  While he doesn’t come up in my picks, “Blackie” has given us a lifetime’s worth of memories, as evidenced by his 14 wins and $4 million in lifetime earnings.   Run well, buddy- it’s been such an honor to see you perform.  Looking at the race I thought #9 Proudinksy warrants favorite status here after being able to defeat Daytona.  #5 Out of Control  has run well against the likes of Einstein and Kip Deville- who are two of the tops in their division.  #10 Dancing Forever is right there with the leaders based on his last two.  I ranked him a notch lower due to the outside post position.  Keep an eye on #4 Stalingrad at 20/1.  I’ve heard some folks whispering that they think this guy could continue to improve. 

Race 11: The Belmont Stakes – Grade 1 – 3YO (1 1/2 Miles)

  • #1 Big Brown (2/5*)
  • #5 Casino Drive (7/2)
  • #4 Denis of Cork (12/1)

Well here it is – the feature race andour date with destiny. Can Big Brown bring home the Triple Crown?  Oh, you bet he can.  I’m not worried about the post – I’ll never worry about the post again with this colt after he overcame the 20 hole in the Derby – although to be honest, I’d much prefer he were hung outside again today.  There shouldn’t be anyone close to him as he hits the wire.  #5 Casino Drive is your logical play in the exacta.  It’ll be interesting to see how this guy stacks up against Big Brown.  He’s certainly bred for the Belmont.  I thought there were several horses you could use underneath, including Macho Again, Denis of Cork, Tale of Ekati, Ready’s Echo, and Icabad Crane.  Ultimately I went with Denis of Cork – but it’s anyone’s guess.

EDIT: Just before I left the house, word has come that Casino Drive may be out – looks like Big Brown’s a lock now!

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2008/June/06/casino-drive-physi

So there you have it folks.  Hopefully we can all make some money and watch history in the making.  Years from now you may find yourself telling stories about where you were when Big Brown won the Triple Crown.  I know we’ve discussed and debated Big Brown, Dutrow, and everything in between at length.   As racing fans, just make sure you sit back and enjoy the spectacle that’s been 30 years in the making. 

Riders up!


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, Big Brown, Casino Drive, Denis of Cork, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Indian Blessing, Triple Crown Coverage

The Belmont field…and some historical irony

4 06 2008

Post positions were drawn today for the 140th running of the Belmont Stakes on Saturday.  As we all know, the big story is Big Brown’s quest for the Triple Crown.  Nine other horses will contend with the super-colt as he tries to make history as just the 12th horse ever to win the Triple Crown.  The field will be as follows:

  1. Big Brown
  2. Guadalcanal
  3. Macho Again
  4. Denis of Cork
  5. Casino Drive
  6. Da’ Tara
  7. Tale of Ekati
  8. Anak Nakal
  9. Ready’s Echo
  10. Icabad Crane

Some of you may not know this, but I’m a bit of a history lover – especially military history  - so the irony that a battle between a U.S. trained colt (Big Brown) and a Japanese trained colt (Casino Drive) that now also includes a horse named Guadalcanal is not lost on me.

For those who don’t know what Guadalcanal was – it was a particularly fierce battle between the U.S. and the Japanese in the early days of World War 2 (early from the U.S. perspective, that is).  The battle raged from August of 1942 to February of 1943.  The U.S. fleet had been significantly weakened during the Pearl Harbor raid, and throughout much of the fighting the Japanese actually enjoyed naval superiority over our troops.  The so-called “Tokyo Express” ferrying fresh troops and supplies to the island while the U.S. troops tried to secure the area inch by inch. 

The U.S. would lose 29 ships, 600+ aircraft, and would lose over 7,000 men during the battle.  The Japanese, fighting to the bitter end, would lose roughly 25,000 men, as well as 38 ships and over 700 aircraft.   The battle itself was a turning point – a significant allied victory – and a hard earned one at that.

Looking ahead to the race, Big Brown certainly has a “significant victory” well within reach – but he may well have to do battle with the Japanese competitor in the stretch.  It could well be a hard earned victory.  A victory that perhaps will seem in doubt at some point during the race -just as the outcome of Guadalcanal seemingly hung in the balance during those dark days of WW2.

During the battle  the fierce fighting around Henderson field became something of a focal point. The Japanese wanted to knock it out to prevent aerial resupply of U.S. forces.  The U.S. wanted desperately to hang on.  At times the fighting was close-quarters.  Grim, bloody stuff – with bayonet charges against machine gun positions, night attacks, and even concentrated bombardment of the field from Japanese battleships just offshore.

Might Big Brown find himself in a similar predicament?  Might the quarter pole, or perhaps the length of the Belmont stretch be Big Brown’s version of Henderson Field?  I don’t mean to make light of the sacrifices of those who fought there by drawing too many comparisons between an actual battle for life and death and a horse race, but surely there are some interesting story lines amd ironies to consider here.

In the end, Guadalcanal was a U.S. victory.  The Japanese defenders were vanquished, and the long campaign of “island hopping” in the Pacific soon began, culminating with the Japanese surrender aboard the “Mighty Mo” (USS Missouri – BB 63) in 1945.

The obvious contender that everyone is buzzing about with a chance to knock off Big Brown is the Japanese trained Casino Drive.  The eastern invader is talented son of Mineshaft that is undefeated thus far racing in Japan, as well as at Belmont Park in the Peter Pan. 

Several other familiar faces return to take on Big Brown, including the 3rd and 4th place finishers from the Kentucky Derby – Denis of Cork and Tale of Ekati.   They will join the 2nd and 3rd place finishers from the Preakness – Macho Again and Icabad Crane.

Rounding out the field are the likely longshots Anak Nakal, Da’ Tara, Ready’s Echo, and the Guadalcanal.  Of those longer shots, we last saw Da’ Tara battling it out with Roman Emperor in the stretch at Pimlico in the Barbaro Stakes.  Ready’s Echo has chased Casino Drive in the Peter Pan and could pose a chance to get into the money.  Anak Nakal is probably the better bred of these guys for the distance, being a son of Victory Gallop.

I see this race as having a chance to play out a bit similarly to the historical fight on Guadalcanal.  I’ve posted before that I do think Big Brown will be tested by Casino Drive, perhaps more than he’s been tested before in the Derby and Preakness.  On Guadalcanal the Japanese Army was seemingly ahead of the U.S. at the time in terms of jungle fighting capabilities – they were some of the finest light infantry in the world.  Similarly, Casino Drive seems bred for the fight on Saturday, with his kinship to Jazil and Rags to Riches, Belmont winners both. Being some of the finest light infantry in the world couldn’t save the Japanese on Guadalcanal – and I doubt pedigree alone will save Casino Drive in the Belmont.  I see Big Brown looking him straight in the eye and running right past him, with Casino Drive putting up a brave challenge, but falling short in the end. 

Breaking from the inside post would usually mean Big Brown would have to gun it out of the gate, and he may well do so, but with his patented cruising speed, one gets the feeling he may hold off quite a bit on Saturday before unleashing  his main run. 

Casino Drive looks like the obvious play in the exacta.  When filling out the trifecta I think you could make a case for Denis of Cork, Icabad Crane, Macho Again, and Tale of Ekati to all wind up in the money.  The key is going to be using those guys along with Casino Drive in the right position.  Ready’s Echo I have ranked just a tad outside of these guys, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if he or Anak Nakal found there way into show.

Denis of Cork is likely going to be the third choice on the line, and would be my straight up prediction for third.  That being said, I’ve got to use Icabad Crane.  I’ve followed this guy since Tesio day  at  Pimlico andhe looked to be moving well along the rail late in the Preakness.  The distance of the Belmont is my biggest concern with him.  That same concern applies to Macho Again – the horse that many have to thank for whatever winnings they were able to scrape up on Preakness day. 

Tale of Ekati is a horse I’m not quite as fond of, but he did run on for 4th in the Derby, and he did get past War Pass at a time when many thought War Pass was headed for a Triple Crown season (not me, but others did – even if they don’t want to admit it now).

We’ve only got a few days away before it’s time to finalize predictions.  I’ll be headed out to Belmont on Friday afternoon and won’t return until Sunday.  By then we’ll know if history has been made or if we’ve been teased once again.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, Big Brown, Casino Drive, Denis of Cork, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Tale of Ekati, Triple Crown Coverage

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