Ten Memories From Breeders’ Cup 2010

7 11 2010

“We sat and heard in silence. What other expression had we that was not meant for such an awful universe of battle?” – Lt Frank Haskell –  Gettysburg, PA – July 3, 1863

It’s hard to believe that the 2010 Breeders’ Cup is already a historical memory.  With so much anticipation and build-up, I’m surprised each year as the races rattle off and the weekend winds down just how quickly the whole affair can happen.  This year, like all others before, was filled with memories; some of them favorable, some of them far more disconcerting.   On the plus side, attendance and betting handle were up from 2009.  On the downside the races didn’t quite end in the story-book fashion many were hoping for.  As we wind down from the weekend that was, I thought we might take a quick look back at 10 memories that will stay with us from the Breeders’ Cup 2010.

  • Jockey Fight 2010:

It’s a shame, but you sort of have to begin here. Things got off to a strange start in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup when Calvin Borel and Javier Castellano exchanged blows following the running of the  Breeders’ Cup Marathon. The moment was captured live on ESPN and instantly went viral – becoming the first sustained memory of the championship weekend.  From Castellano’s seemingly stunning left jab to the enraged look in Borel’s eyes as he was held back and then removed from the scene.

The entire ordeal was both bizarre and absurd.   This couldn’t have been the start the organizers of the Breeders’ Cup were hoping for, but there’s a line of thinking that suggests any exposure is good exposure, and if nothing else the novelty of two height-challenged individuals resorting to fisticuffs in the winner’s circle certainly attracted the attention of folks who would otherwise would not have cared.  The real tragedy was the number of times throughout the continuing racing coverage that “jockeyfight” was harped upon.  Additionally, the high drama surrounding the entire affair should’ve given us a clue as to the proper hunch play for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint the following day.

  • The Big 10 can’t play defense:

Sadly, horse racing fans have to be acutely aware of this fact, but any who didn’t already know that the teams of the Big 10 have a ways to go as far as being able to actually prevent opposing offenses from scoring at will got a healthy reality check about midway through the racing action on Saturday afternoon.   Just as ESPN was switching it’s coverage from ESPN2  to it’s main channel, fans were greeted with a stunning Overtime battle between Illinois and Michigan.

Yes, those two powerhouses fighting for middle-of-the-pack status within the conference wound up going through 3 OT periods before a winner was decided.  During that time racing fans the world over began to form organized resistance as it appeared we would not be able to see the running of the Juvenile.  Thankfully the heavens parted, Michigan sealed the game, and we wound up getting to see Uncle Mo’s brilliant performance (more on that in a moment) in stunning HD quality…and there was much rejoicing.

  • Rough Sailing breaking down:

Probably the saddest of all memories from the past weekend was the injury suffered by longshot Rough Sailing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.  The horse fell, dropping Napravnk from the saddle and then had to be taken away in an ambulance. Not long afterwards came word that the horse was euthanized. Ironically, the winning horse in the race, Tam Valour’s Pluck, was very near Rough Sailing when he fell, and jockey Garrett Gomez deserves credit for steering Pluck away from what seemed to be a collision in the making once Napravnik was on the ground.  A scary moment that could’ve turned out even worse if not for some quick thinking and reflexes.   Sadly, as far as Rough Sailing is concerned, there was no silver lining.   RIP.

  • Bet the longshots!

Right out of the gate we were greeted with a glimpse of what was to come when Eldaafer scored in the Marathon and returned $23.20 to win.  The only favorite that won on the first day was Awesome Feather, who still managed to return $10.40 worth of value to her supporters.  By the time the weekend was through we had witnessed More Than Real scoring at $29.20 in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, Dangerous Midge at $19.00 in the Turf, and bank breakers Dakota Phone ($77.40) and Shared Account ($94.00) in the Dirt Mile and Filly & Mare Turf, respectively.

Shared Account’s victory in particular being memorable as it came over the highly regarded and heavily favored Midday – and may have ultimately led to the decision of Arc winner Workforce being scratched from the BC Turf.  Suffice to say, if you played value horses over the favorites throughout the weekend, chances are you were highly rewarded.   Personally I didn’t catch either of the whoppers, and the victory by Dakota Phone bounced me from the Late Pick 4 on Saturday.

  • Uncle Mo exploding in the stretch to win the Juvenile:

The question everyone wants answered with the yearly running of the Juvenile is whether a 2-year-old exists that is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the competition in the division. While it’s still a long way to go until the “First Saturday in May”,  many folks will no doubt be looking back to Saturday’s performance from Uncle Mo as an early indication of a potential 2011 Kentucky Derby favorite.  Mo’ exploded in the stretch when asked by jockey John Velazquez and stopped the clock on the 1 1/16 mile race at 1:42.60, good enough for a 108 Beyer Speed Figure for the son of Indian Charlie.

Only time will tell if Mo is able to continue his form cycle into next season, but it’s interesting to note that the last horse use the race as a stepping stone to a victorious Derby campaign the following season, Street Sense, also won the Juvenile over the main track at Churchill.  Admittedly there may have been a speed bias favoring the rail during Street Sense’s06 Juvenile score, but for Uncle Mo it seemed like a simple case of being the far superior horse in the field.

  • Dakota Phone noses out Morning Line:

The score that essentially crushed my Pick 4 dreams in the final races of the championship weekend, the 37/1 victory by Dakota Phone was undboutedly a key component to a memorable weekend for those lucky enough to have covered him in the exotics.  The son of Zavata got up just in time to nose out the tepid early favorite, aptly named Morning Line, by a nose in the photo finish.

Personally, I had spread 6 horses deep to cover this race on my tickets, and like many folks I was reminded that in contentious Breeders’ Cup races, sometimes going 6 deep just isn’t enough.  I suppose it’s a bit of a handicapping lesson; if you’ve got no real opinion in a race and are covering that many runners, keep in mind that “anything can happen”, and in the case of the Breeders’ Cup, “anything” probably will happen.  Hats off to anyone that used this horse.

  • Unrivaled Belle best of the ladies:

In a race that featured the 3 biggest names of the division other than Zenyatta (Blind Luck, Life At Ten, and Havre De Grace), Unrivalled Belle may have been somewhat under the radar to many folks.  While clearly capable on her best stuff, it was assumed by most that one of the more highly touted runners would be able to reel her in during the stretch run.  Several handicappers did select Belle, however, most notably (in my opinion) the much adored Christina Olivares of TVG.

Wish I would’ve paid that selection more attention, but in truth by the time I caught this on the DVR I was a bit “opinioned out” and essentially not listening to anything more being said.  Big mistake.  The daughter of Unrivaled Song took command as the field entered the turn and then pulled away to a convincing 1 3/4 length score.  Blind Luck showed the heart of a champion but could not make up the ground that separated the two.

  • Life At Ten – the scratch that should’ve been:

As the field headed to post in the 2010 Ladies’ Classic, it was clear that something was wrong with Life at Ten.  A blind man could’ve seen it.  How this horse went to post is beyond me. She was the surest toss of the entire weekend once she was observed in the post parade.  Of course, that was little comfort to those of us who had confidently wagered on her in the multi-race exotics.  Todd Pletcher had himself a pretty good Breeders’ Cup weekend, but Life At Ten’s debacle is likely the memory that will haunt him the most.

Thankfully she appears to be okay and not seriously injured, but had something even more disastrous occurred I don’t think the game would’ve been able to avoid the proverbial backlash.  When folks who have never seen a horse race in their lives are asking questions like “why are they letting that horse run?”  you know things aren’t going well.

  • Goldikova makes it 3 in a row:

One has to wonder if somewhere in the back of her mind Goldikova wasn’t tired of playing second fiddle on the center stage for Breeders’ Cup 2010?   The champion proved she was every bit the super horse that we’ve made her out to be in earning her unprecedented 3rd consecutive Breeders’ Cup victory in the TVG Mile.  For a while it seemed like she may be in a bad spot, and turning for home I remember thinking “this is going to take everything you have.”  And yet, it didn’t, as the daughter o Anabaa pulled away to a clear 1 3/4 length victory over her primary foe, the Eclipse Award winning Gio Ponti.

For his part, Gio Ponti can now claim that if not for two of the greatest mares the sport has had in recent memory running the races of their lives, it might be he we are fawning over for consecutive Breeders’ Cup victories.  It was Gio, after all, who trailed the great Zenyatta during her 2010 Classic score.  The big question everyone is hoping for a positive answer to is whether Goldikova now tries to make it 4 in a row in 2011?  Considering she’s now won over 10% of the Turf Mile events ever run at the Breeders’ Cup, I’d expect it may still be a possibility.

  • Blame over Zenyatta in a Breeders’ Cup Classic photo finish

I’m torn on this moment and a bit confused as to what my proper feelings should be.  On the one hand I’ve liked Blame all year and thought he may be the only horse capable of holding off Zenyatta in deep stertch.  In fact, I even went so far as to predict a photo finish between the two in our pre-race handicapping selections.  On the other hand, despite the valiant effort, I’d be kidding if I claimed to not be a bit heart broken.

There was a feeling in the air, even as Zenyatta went to post amidst the roar of the crowd and began her patented “dancing” routine, that things were going to be desperate.  Early on in the race I thought she looked like she was not enjoying herself.  She’s always in the back of the pack but she was so far back I worried that she may wind up being pulled up.  Turning for home it seemed as if once again the great mare was going to find a way to thunder down the center of the track and into the history books.  She would have – if not for an equally game contender in Blame.   Someone must’ve forget to tell Blame that he was supposed to play 2nd fiddle to the great one, and he simply did what he knows to do best in holding off a living legend at the wire for the score.

Deflating for Zenyatta lovers?  Sure.  Indicative that Zenyatta is not the super horse of legend we’ve made her out to be?  Hardly.  In fact, I’d argue that the 2010 Classic was one of Zenyatta’s best performances given how absolutely out of it she seemed as the field entered the final turn.   A mile into the race she was in 11th position.  At the top of the stretch she was already in 3rd and rolling.  She may have lost the head bob, but she gained so much more in terms of respect and appreciation.  We learned that we don’t need perfection – as who amongst us can claim to be perfect in anything – in order to appreciate greatness.


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Categories : Blame, Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Zenyatta

Saturday Breeders’ Cup Selections

5 11 2010

Race 4: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

Similar to yesterday’s card, we start out with a race I don’t have a particularly strong opinion about.  Not a single runner in the entire field has a previous start over the Churchill dirt.  We know the turns are tight and the ground has been reportedly more firm than many of the Euro connections would prefer.  This race will be our first indication of how the European runners will fare the rest of the day.  Speaking of which, MASTER OF HOUNDS should be tough here if he has shipped well and will be my top selection.  I also like the looks of MANTOBA with Dettori aboard.  For the domestic runners I gravitated towards the outside horse, PLUCK, for Todd Pletcher even though I hate the post position.  MADMAN DIARIES came close to being my 3rd selection. You can really make a case for just about anyone in this field.  Tricky race to start the day off with.

  • Selections:
    • #5 Master of Hounds (9/2*)
    • #3 Mantoba (5/1)
    • #13 Pluck (6/1)

Race 5: The Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Sprint

I’m going to keep things fairly simple in the sprint.  I like the favorite, GIROLAMO quite a bit, but as the morning line odds of 3/1 suggest, he is a bit vulnerable here.  It’s interesting to note that he (along with Gio Ponti who races later in the card) are two examples that buck the myth that suggests horses who have faced Zenyatta don’t go on to achieve much of anything.  This son of A.P. Indy (one of many in the BC) took the G1 Vosburgh last out despite being “steadied” at one point early in the race.  BIG DRAMA is a horse that makes a good deal of sense here as well, but my gut tells me he finds a way to finish 2nd again.  CASH REFUND is probably the fastest of the field, which in theory should help for a sprint.  KINSALE KING figures to offer solid reward relative to his chances due to the recent “darkened form” in the last two efforts.  The horses that I was torn between for 3rd selection were ATTA BOY ROY and WARRIOR’s REWARD on the outside.  Definitely those are not ideal post positions, so despite the fact that I like both horses I had to leave one off.  I think of the two WARRIOR’s REWARD has the better chance to wind up in the winner’s circle, whereas ATTA BOY ROY has a better chance to hit-the-board (if that even makes sense…forgive me folks as I’m running on about 3 hours sleep).

  • Selections:
    • #2 Girolamo (3/1*)
    • #1 Big Drama (7/2)
    • #12 Warrior’s Reward (12/1)

Race 6: The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

This race was extremely difficult for me to narrow down even a top selection – perhaps the most difficult of all 14 championship races this weekend.  In fact, I’m not even going to do an analysis here. My advice is to just play whatever your opinion is and don’t listen to anything anyone else has to say.  If someone twisted my arm I’d say that I expect the pace to be fairly quick here, and that may setup for DUE DATE and CALIFORNIA FLAG to be rolling late.  I know just about everyone has totally given up on the Flag, but not me.  He can still beat these guys,  and 12/1 isn’t half bad on the horse that won this race last year.  Obviously the post position is horrific though and gives me great pause.  I like to use CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE but he seems to have trouble winning in graded stakes.  ROSE CATHERINE was going to be my top play as I feel she doesn’t “need” the lead in this, but I’ve begun to question that selection the more I look over the race.  Guess I’ll have to make SILVER TIMBER the top choice then?  The post isn’t bad and he makes some sense having defeated the aforementioned DUE DATE (not to mention $450k in earnings at the distance).

  • Selections:
    • #5 Silver Timber (4/1)
    • #9 Rose Catherine (6/1)
    • #12  California Flag (12/1)

Race 7 : The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

The Juvenile features a showdown between two highly regarded colts, BOYS AT TUSCANOVA and UNCLE MO.  My initial opinion is that UNCLE MO may be the best of the two at the mile-and-a-sixteenth distance, but I would advise using each of them in the win position on your exotics.  Looking over the rest of the field, STAY THIRSTY would make some sense to include underneath of the top two. MURJAN and BIONDETTI come into the race sporting perfect records from overseas, while J B’s THUNDER is a perfect 2 for 2 here in the U.S.  J P’s GUSTO hasn’t missed an Exacta since her debut in May.  Lastly you have the improving sons of Kentucky Derby champions Smarty Jones (ROGUE ROMANCE) and Fusaichi Pegasus (RIVETING REASON).  Even the “easy” races are filled with intrigue.

  • Selections:
    • #7 Uncle Mo (7/5*)
    • #2 Boys At Tuscanova (5/2)
    • #6 Stay Thirsty (8/1)

Race 8: The TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile (Turf):

While all of the attention is focused this day on the Classic and the undefeated Zenyatta, racing fans the world over are perhaps equally anxious to see GOLDIKOVA get her shot at defeating the boys for an unprecedented 3rd Breeders’ Cup victory (although that unprecedentedness may be fleeting, depending on developments later in the day).  We all know the story; trainer Freddie Head who rode the great Miesque to consecutive Mile victories has the daughter of Anabaa looking very tough to defeat, although it will be interesting to see if she can once again overcome some adversity in the form of post position and familiarity with the local track.  PACO BOY has the most familiarity with the favorite, having been defeated repeatedly at her hands (hooves). GIO PONTI is the x-factor here who probably is better suited for the BC Turf, but gives GOLDIKOVA’s connections something to think about.  PROVISO is another interesting runner who has rattled off 4 consecutive victories.  I haven’t liked what I’ve seen of SIDNEY’S CANDY in the morning workouts to support that horse as an upset contender. I could see including DELEGATOR as an underneath play.  COURT VISION is a horse I’ve always been fond of, but I can’t envision him defeating the likes of Goldi.  Look for history to be made in this race – hopefully not the last time we get to say that for the evening.

  • Selections
    • #10 Goldikova (6/5*)
    • #3 Gio Ponti (4/1)
    • #11 Proviso (12/1)

Race 9: The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

The Dirt Mile looks like another great betting race where folks have numerous logical directions they could go.  MORNING LINE was awarded favoritism at 7/2 but I think many of us are thinking this is a play against at those odds given the distance and post position questions for a one-turn mile.  I actually like the other Tiznow colt here, TIZWAY at 6/1.  I thought that was a big win in the Kelso last out over Cool Coal Man, and the 3rd behind Quality Road and Musket Man in the Metropolitan could look flattered by the end of the day depending on how those runners perform in the Classic.  HERE COMES BEN is another logical contender that you don’t want to let knock you out of the exotics.  CROWN OF THORNS was going to be a play against from me before his late scratch.  The x-factor horse I think may show up big here though is VINEYARD HAVEN.  I just wish he drew a better post position because I think he has every right to be there at the wire and 10/1 is attractive value.  Very interesting race.

  • Selections:
    • #2 Tizway (6/1)
    • #5 Here Comes Ben (6/1)
    • #12 Vineyard Haven (10/1)

Race 10: The Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Turf

For the sixth time in history, a winner of the Arc De Triomphe, the world’s richest turf race, will attempt to prevail in the BC Turf within the same year.  The previous competitors are 0 for 5 lifetime, so keep that in mind before accepting low odds on WORKFORCE.  Even more concerning has been the hot topic story this week that the connections feel Churchill’s turf course is “too firm” and does not have enough moisture in the ground to set up the Arc winner for his best run.  This is actually a continuing theme that we’ll have to pay close attention to throughout the weekend to see how the Euros hold up, but moisture in the forecast and the opportunity to have viewed numerous turf races prior to this point will hopefully have clarified the picture.  If you’re looking to beat captain obvious, I thought the other Arc runner, BEHKABAD made quite a bit of sense.  I’ll be using WINCHESTER and AL KHALI on some exotic plays.

  • Selections:
    • #6 Workforce (7/5*)
    • #7 Behkabad (9/5)
    • #5 Al Khali (10/1)

Race 11: The Breeders’ Cup Classic

And so it all comes down to this. One race, two minutes, and a date with destiny.  Obviously my heart, like that of every racing fan on Earth, will be beating rapidly in the hopes that Zenyatta will be able to unleash her trademark gigantic run down the center of the track and then gallop off into history as the greatest race horse that many of us younger fans have ever had the pleasure of seeing with our own eyes.  If she loses, well, unfortunately such circumstances tend to bring out the worst in human nature – but no mater what anyone says or types her legacy was sealed when she prevailed at Santa Anita last year.  Nothing can ever take away that accomplishment, and I fully expect her to be right there at the wire on Saturday.  The horse with the best chance of knocking down the champ has got to be BLAME.  I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a photo finish between them. LOOKIN AT LUCKY would make a great deal of sense to me here if he had not drawn such a crappy post position – but Baffert does seem quietly confident lately.  QUALITY ROAD and MUSKET MAN have every right to factor into the equation, and of course you’ve got a runner like HAYNESFIELD who was able to get loose on the lead and defeat BLAME last out.  I like BLAME and ZENYATTA hitting the wire together with MUSKET MAN edging out other rivals for 3rd.   If this is indeed the last time “slow cheetah” will grace us with her presence, here’s hoping she goes out as a winner.  This one’s going to be tough though, folks.  It may take her absolute best – but rest assured that her absolute best is pretty darned good.

  • Selections:
    • #8 Zenyatta (8/5*)
    • #5 Blame (9/2)
    • #7 Musket Man (20/1)

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Ladies’ Classic – Breeders’ Cup Friday Selections

4 11 2010
What’s this?  A new post from The Aspiring Horseplayer on Breeders’ Cup Eve?  Surely your eyes deceive you!

Clearly the rumors that I had retired to pursue my dream of chasing scantily clad Sherpa women through a series of increasingly complex obstacle courses in front of live studio audiences was a bit premature.  Yes, like an older champion thoroughbred returning from an extended layoff and hoping to recapture lost glory, the Prodigal Son hath returned to the racing blogosphere.  At least temporarily.

It’s been a long time, my friends (too long) – since June to be exact, and admittedly my absence deserves a brief explanation.  As much as I’ve wanted to continue writing regularly about the sport we love, the facts of life simply caught up with me (though thankfully I can still outrun Mindy Cohn).  Working full time, commuting long distances, and raising two young boys just didn’t leave anywhere near enough time to collect my thoughts and organize them into something worth posting.  Thankfully the proverbial torch has been passed to some more than capable writers/bloggers, some of whom I’m lucky enough to count among friends.

This weekend, however, is simply TOO BIG to ignore.  Zenyatta, my beloved “slow cheetah” aiming for a repeat in the Classic and a fitting wrap to her perfect career?  Goldikova trying to make it 3 in a row against the boys?  An Arc winner still in the mix (at least as of this writing) for the Turf?  Saying nothing would be akin to being bound and gagged and left in some swamp conditioned pit of despair.  It’s Breeders’ Cup time – that moment of the year where even my love of collegiate football cannot keep me from obsessing over the happenings at the race track.  I won’t be in actual attendance this year – the days of such distinguished honors having seemingly passed, but I will be here to cover both racing days in full – undoubtedly to the spattering of a handful of golf claps.

Let’s kick things off by looking over the Friday Breeders’ Cup races from Churchill Downs:

Race 5: The Breeders’ Cup Marathon (1 3/4 Miles)

Well, the skinny is that I’m 0 for 2 in “marathon’ events.  Not exactly the kind of grand return to the handicapping scene I was hoping for.  The way I see this race, I’ve never been a GIANT OAK fan and I’d really only take the tepid morning line favorite, AWESOME GEM, if the conditions were wet, so I’m going to shake things up and try something new.  It’s interesting to note that the Euros have done well in this race the last two years, so perhaps I roll the dice with one of them?  Obviously they aren’t running over synthetics this year, so it’s a bit of a risky proposition, but what the hey? Two contenders fit the description, BRIGHT HORIZON and PRECISION BREAK, with the better odds available on the latter.

  • Selections:
    • #9 Bright Horizon (10/1)
    • #11 Precision Break (15/1)
    • #12 A.U. Miner (9/2)

Race 6: The Juvenile Fillies Turf (1 Mile)

Usually the Juvenile Fillies Turf would be a race I’d throw darts at a wall and hope for the best.  This year feels different though, thanks in large part to the presence of WINTER MEMORIES.  The daughter of El Prado has looked very impressive finding the winner’s circle in each of her 2 starts.  She seems to have a decent stretch burst when she puts in her run, and I like the versatility she’s shown in those two starts over firm and yielding turf courses.  She’s capable of taking another step forward in her 3rd career start.  KATHMANBLU is another late running type that has prevailed at the lower stakes level.  A victory from the daughter of Bluegrass Cat would reward trainer Ken McPeek with his first Breeders’ Cup victory and is not out of the question at all here at 10/1.

  • Selections:
    • #7 Winter Memories (2/1*)
    • #4 Kathmanblu (10/1)
    • #13 Together (5/1)

Race 7: The Filly & Mare Sprint (7 Furlongs)

This could be the most wide open race on the card.  RIGHTLY SO drew a horrible post position in the 13 hole, which means we’ve got the warning flag out right away on a vulnerable 3/1 favorite.  Of course her front running style could render that less of a factor if she found her way out in front and was able to come over and save ground while relaxing a bit.  The presence of RINTERVAL in the 10 hole means that she may have to run a bit harder than her connections would like early on, and longshot MOONTUNE MISSY could also add to the pace equation.  Call me crazy but I think you roll the dice here. In my heart I’d like to select INFORMED DECISION, since she’s been so good to me in the past, but I have to side elsewhere this year.  I’m going to take a stab with GABBY’S GOLDEN GAL, who I thought made a good impression during Monday’s episode of “The Works”.  She’s not consistent, but her recent workouts suggest to me she may be primed for her best, and at 15/1 I don’t need much convincing.  SECRET GYPSY also makes a bit of sense here at 12/1 value.  I have a feeling folks are all over the board in this race so if you’ve got an opinion this looks like a good place to take a stab at a nice value play.

  • Selections:
    • #7 Gabby’s Golden Gal (15/1)
    • #3 Secret Gypsy (12/1)
    • #5 Evening Jewel (15/1)

Race 8: The Juvenile Fillies (1 1/16 Miles)

A field of 13 horses awaits the call to post for the 2010 Juvenile Fillies.  Admittedly I’m a bit torn here between A Z WARRIOR and AWESOME FEATHER.  Ultimately I’ll assume that A Z WARRIOR may be the superior horse, although what this daughter of Bernardini has lacked in terms of stringing together consecutive victories thus far in her young career is easily contrasted by the consistency of her primary foe.  AWESOME FEATHERS has been nothing short of her name in earning a perfect 5-for-5 mark.  Needless to say I’d suggest covering both on the exotics.  TELL A KELLY seems to be a classy enough daughter of Tapit. The surface switch and post position draw would be the obvious concerns, but the presence of local hero Calvin Borel will ensure the horse takes some action at the window.  R HEAT LIGHTNING drew a much more favorable post and is an obvious horse to consider in the exotics.

  • Selections:
    • #8 A Z Warrior (7/2*)
    • #4 Awesome Feather (6/1)
    • #2 Theyskens’ Theory (10/1)

Race 9: The Filly & Mare Turf (1 3/8 Miles)

We’ve got 11 horses to consider in the premier ladies’ turf event of the day, but I see this boiling down to a three horse race.  In one corner you have MIDDAY who appears a very strong favorite at 6/5.  Sarafina, who ran third to her in the Qatar Prix Vermeille, wound up finishing 3rd in the Arc, if that’s any indication.  The daughter of Oasis Dream has rattled off 3 consecutive victories and 4 of her last 5 races.  The turf course may be a bit firmer at Churchill than the Europeans are accustomed to, but if she’s shipped well she looks mighty dangerous.  The primary contender generating the most buzz in the racing world would have to be RED DESIRE, the Japanese-bred filly who couldn’t quite get it done over a yielding turf course at Belmont in her North American debut.  If you’ve watched along with TVG’s “The Works”, you’ve no doubt heard she’s reportedly training well.  Major player in this race, although admittedly I’d have to use her regardless given my fondness for ladies from that area of the world.  The x-factor here may be PLUMANIA, who was less than a length behind MIDDAY (and ahead of the aforementioned Sarafina) in the Vermeille.  Considering she was that close at Longchamp, 8/1 seems like a gift.

  • Selections:
    • #7 Midday (6/5*)
    • #10 Red Desire (8/1)
    • #1 Plumania (8/1)


Race 10: The Ladies’ Classic (1 1/8 Miles)

With 11 horses entered in the 2010 edition of the Ladies’ Classic, most of the attention will be focused on the big name contenders BLIND LUCK, HAVRE DE GRACE, and LIFE AT TEN.  Of the big 3 I prefer LIFE AT TEN at a decent price of 7/2.  The daughter of Malibu Moon has prevailed in 7 of her last 8 races, including the Grade 1 Beldame at Belmont Park on October 8.  The betting public will likely follow the morning line and favor BLIND LUCK, who has every right to win this race.  I simply feel she’s too vulnerable to accept 9/5 in this race.  HAVRE DE GRACE defeated BLIND LUCK last out yet finds her odds more than double those of her foe at 4/1 on the line.  Of the other runners, Unrivalled Belle did defeat Rachel Alexandra back in April, but has had a series of decent-if-unspectacular 2nd place finishes in New York ever since.  If you’re looking for a price play, consider using MALIBU PRAYER at 8/1 in the exotics.  She may drift upwards on the tote board if the bigger named horses take heavy play and could offer attractive risk/reward potential.  I’m thinking LIFE AT TEN will be too much for her foes in the stretch. I expect the other big names will vie for minor awards, but keep an eye on MALIBU PRAYER at a price.

  • Selections:
    • #1 Life At Ten (7/2)
    • #11 Havre De Grace (4/1)
    • #10 Blind Luck (9/5*)

Best of luck to everyone and remember to keep that bank roll padded for Saturday!


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Categories : Handicapping Selections

Breeders’ Cup Classic Selections

5 11 2009

Finally – it’s Classic time.  The “race of the year” (although not necessarily for Horse of the Year, as evidenced by recent history) for an overall purse of $5 million.  Obviously the story of the race is the entry of the undefeated mare Zenyatta – one of the sports biggest stars in North America and a hometown hero that the masses will turn out to support in droves for her first try against the boys.

Last year we had another equally beloved North American horse coming in as the heavy favorite.  Of course I’m talking here of my beloved Curlin.  Despite a bold move as the field neared the top of the stretch that at first glance appeared to be trademarked, patented Curlin - he ultimately floundered through the final furlong and wound up finishing 4th, passed by two horses that had shipped in from Europe in both Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator. 

Will things be different this year?  It was supposed to be the “year of the filly” – but the Fighting Phils blew the World Series to the N.Y. Yankees last night.  Still, might that be a favorable omen for Zenyatta?  Think about it – if her biggest threats are coming from across the pond once again, then is it a good sign that the “Yankees” won?   We horseplayers are nothing if not superstitious, so it’s something to think about.

Speaking of which – I’d encourage ALL horseplayers to go to our TBA homepage right now and play along with our “BC Picks” feature.  Basically it’s just a google doc spreadsheet.  Contact Handride if you have any questions about how to enter your picks.  I see at least one regular reader (Mark Ripple) is already there – hopefully we’ll see more of you shortly. 

Since this post will also be featured until I return from the Breeders’ Cup Sunday evening, I’d also like to point out that I’ve updated the page entitled “2009 Breeders’ Cup” so that you can easily navigate to the selections/analysis for each of the BC races this weekend.  Basically it’s the old “2009 Triple Crown” page that used to be in the same spot – only that information has been moved down a few notches.  Just trying to keep things as easy as can be for the readers here.

Getting back to the Classic, the field sets up like this:

  1. Mine That Bird (12/1)
  2. Colonel John (12/1)
  3. Summer Bird (9/2)
  4. Zenyatta (5/2*)
  5. Twice Over (20/1)
  6. Richard’s Kid (12/1)
  7. Gio Ponti (12/1)
  8. Einstein (12/1)
  9. Girolamo (20/1)
  10.  Rip Van Winkle (7/2)
  11.  Regal Ransom (20/1)
  12.  Quality Road (12/1)
  13.  Awesome Gem (30/1)

“Slow Cheetah come, it’s so euphoric.  Looks like it’s on today…”  (“Slow Cheetah” being my pet name for Zenyatta)

MINE THAT BIRD – the 3-year-old “little gelding who could” that shocked the world with his stunning 50/1 upset in the Kentucky Derby back in May.  Sadly, that was the last time he found the winner’s circle, although he did come charging well late against Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness.  He just hasn’t seemed the same horse since then, and his relatively uninspiring effort over the Santa Anita Pro Ride in the Goodwood (Grade 1) last month does not leave me thinking he’s got much of a chance here.  He’s shocked us before – so keep that in mind before you toss him out, but as much as I like this gelding and his trainer, Chip Woolley Jr., I’m just not seeing it.

COLONEL JOHN was my original selection for the 2008 Kentucky Derby.  Since then I’ve had a bit of a tough love relationship with him.  He’s a Tiznow colt, and I’m nothing if not a Tiznow fan, so he’ll always hold a special place in my heart.  It just seems like whenever I expect big things from him, he struggles, and whenever I dismiss his chances, he runs huge.  He’s capable of running big here, but I’m going to consider others as more solid selections for win honors.  If my Colonel John conundrum continues, that might suggest he’s primed for his best performance.  For now, I’ll say he’s a contender and leave it at that. 

SUMMER BIRD might be the forgotten colt of the entire field.  This is likely due to his lack of previous racing experience over the synthetic surfaces.  The son of Birdstone did train over the Santa Anita Pro Ride before joining the barn of Trainer Tim Ice – a man who was beyond awesome to my entire family on Haskell day at Monmouth Park.  Since we got to meet Summer Bird that day, and since he was my wife’s Belmont pick, you best believe he’ll be on all my tickets.  Am I worried about the synthetics?  Nope, not at all – and my gut tells me this guy is one of the better North American horses in racing.  Case in point – immediately following the Haskell, our conversations with Ice revealed that he didn’t want to run into Rachel Alexandra ever again, but he’s confident enough again in his colt following his victories in the Travers and the Jockey Club Gold Cup that he now publicly states he wants another shot at her.  Not many folks would say such a thing – and Tim is a consummate gentlemen, so don’t mistake that for false bravado.  He’s sincere in everything he says, which tells me this colt is poised.  Big factor – and expect to see those odd s of 9/2 improve dramatically once the betting windows open up.

ZENYATTA - what’s left to say about my beloved “Slow Cheetah?”  The 50-foot woman…the undefeated super star who has been the poster girl for California racing for 2 seasons now.  This is her biggest moment, and while she’s facing boys for the first time and taking on a new distance as well, she’s simply one of the classiest animals I’ve had the pleasure of seeing.  If this is indeed her swan song (which recent discussions suggest it will not be), then it shall be with a watery eye that I bid her farewell.  My love affair with Zenyatta began the evening she broke her maiden in her debut in late 2007.  I had just decided to start posting picks online and experimenting with these peculiarities called “blogs.”  The rest, quite literally, is history.  I’m expecting her finest hour – and that’s exactly what it will likely take to prevail.  If this plays out the way she usually does things, expect a heart-stopping photo finish type of cliffhanger ending at the wire.  You KNOW she’ll be flying late. 

TWICE OVER is the sneakiest of the European invaders by virtue of being 20/1 on the morning line.  I’ll say this, given the fact that European shippers ran 1, 2 in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic, wouldn’t it make sense to at least take a flyer on a RIP VAN WINKLE/TWICE OVER exacta here?  We are, after all, talking about a horse that has won 3 straight overseas, including besting the filly Sariska in the Champion Stakes (Group 1).  He didn’t appear to run his best race when he tangled with RIP VAN WINKLE in the Eclipse Stakes back in July, but his running line denotes that he was “bumped’ in that race.  Further, he simply might be a better horse now than he was back then.  Very interesting and quite usable colt given the 20/1 value on the morning line.

RICHARD’S KID was the upset special for trainer Bob Baffert in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic in early September.  The son of Lemon Drop Kid shocked us all by beating EINSTEIN at 24/1, and then returned to run 3rd beaten only a length to COLONEL JOHN and Gitano Hernando.  In other words, he doesn’t appear to be a fluke, so you might want to keep him around on your tickets. 

GIO PONTI is probably the best North American turf horse at the moment.  So what’s he doing here rather than racing in the BC Turf?  I’m not entirely certain, although it would appear he does seem to favor the 10 furlong distance.  The son of Tale of the Cat did win here in the Sir Beaufort over the Pro Ride when that race came off the turf last December.  If you’re a believer that turf form translates well to the Pro Ride, then you shouldn’t have any doubts about his chances.  He has to be considered a player in here with a chance.

EINSTEIN is the hard trying son of Spend a Buck that has earned fans from all over the nation the past 3 years.  I’ll always remember the first time I saw him live on Preakness Day in 2007, when a spill caused him to toss jockey Robby Albarado just 2 races before Curlin’s date with destiny in the Preakness.  Ultimately we lost the colt Mending Fences that day, but since then Einstein has gone on to become one of the most versatile horses in all of racing.  His motto, if he could speak, would surely be something along the lines of “any surface, any track, any time.”  A rare Grade 1 winner on dirt, turf, and synthetics.  He’s run into some hard luck and close finishes this year, so it would be nice to see him fight his way back into the winner’s circle.  Ultimately I like him better as an underneath play here. 

GIROLAMO is the most lightly raced of the contenders, and a 3-year-old son of A. P. Indy.  He’s never been two turns before, but his pedigree suggests he’ll handle it.  For me the tougher question is figuring out where he might fit into the equation pace wise.  I’m guessing he’ll be right up there trying to go with Regal Ransom.  He’s definitely a nice colt that is on the improve and eligible to continue to move forwad, but he’ll be on a new surface, going two turns for the first time, and facing a level of competition he’s never seen before.  That might be asking just a tad too much here.

RIP VAN WINKLE is the main threat to ZENYATTA’s quest for glory here in the Classic.  The son of Galileo has been very sharp lately, taking both the Sussex Stakes and the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1 races both) in his last two efforts.  Prior to that he was only 1 length behind Sea the Stars in the Eclipse Stakes (and, notably, 4 1/2 lengths in front of Conduit – whom I just made top selection in the BC Turf….hmmmmm).  In fact, he lost 3 straight to Sea the Stars, but never finished worse than 4th and was never further than 2 1/2 lengths from the colt considered by many to be among the best they have ever seen in Europe.  Trainer Aidan O’Brien and jockey Johnny Murtagh will team up once again here and look to steal the victory from the hometown hero.  The obvious question will be how he handles the synthetics, and as always one must take a bit of a leap of faith in backing a runner like this, but he does look tough to deal with here.  In fact, he looks tougher than anything ZENYATTA has ever seen.  As much as it pains me to do it, he’s going to be the top pick. Don’t “sleep” on this guy (lame, I know, but I couldn’t resist).

REGAL RANSOM is a horse I was admittedly quite enamored with during the Triple Crown season earlier this year.  Things didn’t quite work out for him, as he finished 8th over the Churchill slop on Derby day, but he did return to wire the field in the Super Derby last out (Grade 2).  He seems to be a legit pace factor here, and that could have him in a favorable position if he were to get loose on the lead.  Of course, as mentioned earlier, GIRALOMO appears to want to have something to say about that, and so might QUALITY ROAD, so it’s not enough to make me think upset here.  Word is that he has been working extremely well here, so definitely think about using him underneath on the exotics.

QUALITY ROAD was once my top Derby selection for 2009.  This means that my top Derby picks for the last 2 years are now here in this race.  The speedy son of Elusive Quality has been unable to catch SUMMER BIRD in his last two starts over wet surfaces in New York.  I’d expect him to be on the muscle early on and looking to press REGAL RANSOM should that one try to waltz away with things untested early on.  It’s hard for me to think he’ll win this, but he can still be a factor.  One angle to keep in mind is that this is a colt who had some issues with his feet earlier in the year, and quite a few horses with similar problems have really taken to the softer synthetic surfaces. 

AWESOME GEM was the third place finisher in the 2007 Classic behind Curlin and Hard Spun. Last year he finished 6th in the BC Mile.  I’d give him a shot if we were on a true dirt surface and rain was in the forecast, but his 1 for 12 record on synthetics leaves me thinking he’s an outsider here.

How do I see this race playing out?  I think REGAL RANSOM, QUALITY ROAD, and GIROLAMO will contest things early on .  As the field nears the turn, ZENYATTA will start to uncoil and swing wide (like she always does) and start mowing down horses in front of her.  RIP VAN WINKLE will be a bit more forwardly placed along with SUMMER BIRD, EINSTEIN, and TWICE OVER.  This group will actually get frist run at the leading trio, with ZENYATTA, COLONEL JOHN, RICHARD’s KID, MINE THAT BIRD, and GIO PONTI further back. 

I like RIP VAN WINKLE and ZENYATTA to rise to the top, due to their respective class, and leave us with a finish for th ages.  I’m calling a photo finish that could go either way depending on the head bob.  Two gutsy, world class competitors leaving it all on the line.  No quarter shall be asked, and none shall be given.  God bless ‘em, this ought to be a good one.

Selections:

  • #10 Rip Van Winkle (7/2)
  • #4 Zenyatta (5/2*)
  • #3 Summer Bird (9/2)

Best of luck to all!  May this be a Breeders’ Cup to remember.  Don’t forget that we’ve got all 13 of the previous Breeders’ Cup races for the weekend covered as well.  For quick access, you can locate those posts here.


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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Colonel John, Einstein, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Mine That Bird, Quality Road, Santa Anita, Summer Bird, TBA, Zenyatta

Breeders’ Cup Turf Selections

5 11 2009

The 2009 running of the Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Turf has come up extremely intriguing this year, thanks to the presence of the lightning quick Presious Passion, the classy European filly Dar Re Mi, fellow invader Spanish Moon, and the presence of defending champion Conduit.  A cool $3 million will be on the line as the horses go to post on Saturday for the 1 1/2 mile run over the Santa Anita turf. 

The field sets up like this:

  1. Telling (20/1)
  2. Conduit (7/5*)
  3. Red Rocks (20/1)
  4. Allegre (50/1)
  5. Dar Re Mi (3/1)
  6. Presious Passion (4/1)
  7. Spanish Moon (5/2)
  8. Monzante (30/1)

TELLING is a son of A.P. Indy who took many horseplayers by surprise when he suddenly broke out as a Grade 1 winner in the Sword Dancer at Saratoga this summer.  Prior to that race, the 5-year-old had struggled to find the winner’s circle for quite some time.  He wasn’t able to repeat that effort when he returned in the Grade 1 Turf Classic Invitational at Belmont last month, and has now drawn the dreaded rail post position.  This will be the toughest competition he’s ever seen, so he’ll need his absolute best to contest for win honors.

CONDUIT is the defending champion from last year’s BC Turf.  A year ago he was coming into this race off of consecutive victories at the Group 3 and Group 1 levels, respectively.  This year he’s got a Group 1 victory in the King George, and a very respectable 4th place finish to Sea the Stars in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe behind him as attempts to defend his crown.  If the Conduit we’ve come to know and love shows up, the others could be running for place and show.  In particular, the presence of Presious Passion in this field ensures he’ll have a target to run at.  Now the question will be whether he can run that target down.  With 12 furlongs to work with, he’ll have plenty of time to do so (although to be honest, the longer the race the slower the anticipated pace usually is).

RED ROCKS will forever be the “horse that spoiled my trip to see Curlin in the Man O’ War back in 2008.  I’m not sure I’ll ever be able to forgive him for that day.  Here’s a guy who is a previous Breeders’ Cup Turf winner, something you certainly have to respect.  I’m just not sure he’s capable anymore now at 6-years-old as things seem to have turned slightly southward this year. 

ALLEGRE is the longsthot of the field at 50/1, and a 4-year-old son of Orientate that would need to both move forward significantly and run his absolute best to factor here, although trainer Brian Koriner is usually good with turfers.

DAR RE MI is the European shipper I’m most fond of here.  The daughter of Singspiel was 2nd to Zarkava (2008 Arc de Triomphe champion) in the Group 1 Prix Vermeile last year and ran a respectable 5th (beaten by 3 1/4 lengths) to Sea the Stars in the 2009 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – the richest turf race in the world.  In between she’s bested a filly that I’m extremely fond of named Sariska, as well as the talented Stacelita (although she was ultimately disqualified and placed 5th).  A major player in here for sure who could keep the filly and mare mojo flowing on Saturday with a brilliant performance.

PRESIOUS PASSION is the lightning in a bottle speed of the speed in here.  Remember that effort of his in the United Nations when he was 20 lengths clear of the field the first time around the track?  I don’t think he’ll go that crazy, but he will be looking to open things up quite comfortably in the early going in an attempt to build an insurmountable lead and then hang on for dear life as DAR RE MI, CONDUIT, and SPANISH MOON come charging.  Always dangerous if loose on the lead.

SPANISH MOON is a very intriguing European shipper that has run 6 straight solid races – with 4 of them being victories  – most notably the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud.  Coming off back to back wins (including a defeat of Youmzain, the runner-up finisher in the 2009 Arc de Triomphe) signals that this son of El Prado is ready to run a big one in his first visit to the U.S.  Respect his chances.

MONZANTE rounds out the field for trainer Mike Mitchell, who will return the son of Maria’s Mon to the guiding hands of jockey Rafael Bejarano.  The pair teamed up for two of this horse’s better performances last year at Del Mar, and will look to recapture some of that previous magic.  Finished 7th, though only beaten by a collective 4 lengths to Colonel John and Gitano Hernando in the Goodwood last out.  Rates as an outside possiblity on his top stuff.

Overall I think CONDUIT is still the guy you’ve got to get passed here, and I’ll give the defending champ the nod.  You won’t hear any argument from me though to those who side with DAR RE MI, PRESIOUS PASSION, or SPANISH MOON as all 3 seem quite capable of winning.  In my mind, PRESIOUS PASSION leads the field into the stretch, when these 3 come charging home. I like CONDUIT getting home on top by a very slim margin, with PRESIOUS PASSION holding on to finish 2nd or 3rd, and either DAR RE MI or SPANISH MOON taking the other slice. 

Selections:

  • #2 Conduit (7/5*)
  • #6 Presious Passion (4/1)
  • #5 Dar Re M (3/1)

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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Presious Passion, Santa Anita

Breeders’ Cup Sprint Selections

5 11 2009

The Grade 1 Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Sprint has drawn a field of 9 to contest the 6 furlong sprint over the Pro Ride at Santa Anita.  An overall purse of $2 million will be on the line as California “zensation” Zensational as the morning line favorite will face off against Irish bred invader Fleeting Spirit as well as North American contenders like Fatal Bullet and Capt. Candyman Can.

The field sets up like this:

  1. Zensational (6/5*)
  2. Cost of Freedom (20/1)
  3. Fatal Bullet (9/2)
  4. Crown of Thorns (12/1)
  5. Gayego (5/2)
  6. Dancing in Silks (12/1)
  7. Join in the Dance (30/1)
  8. Capt. Candyman Can (15/1)
  9. Fleeting Spirit (8/1)

“Who can take the sprint race….come from off the pace?”  The Candyman can (perhaps)

ZENSATIONAL looms the favorite, and the 2nd most popular one whose name begins with the letter “z” on the day.  The son of Unbridled’s Song has rattled off 4 straight victories, as well as 5 of his last 6by steam rolling the local competition.  Quick out of the gate, he tends to either wire the field or press from 2nd position early on.  He’ll be fresh for this race, having not run since his victory in the Grade 1 Pat O’Brien in early September.  Like many a Bob Baffert trainee, his workout tab is filled with bullet drills.  Catch him to score.

COST OF FREEDOM is a 6-year-old son of Cee’s Tizzy that has only raced twice thus far in 2009.  The 2008 victor of the Grade 1 Ancient Title tried to repeat that performance last out in defense of his crown and came up short behind both GAYEGO and CROWN OF THORNS.  He could add some pace pressure to ZENSATIONAL, but probably wants to take back about a length or two behind him in the early going.  A 3 for 4 record at Santa Anita and a 5 for 7 record at the distance suggest he is not to be dismissed at 20/1 odds.

FATAL BULLET is a dangerous looking son of Red Bullet  coming off a Grade 3 victory in the Phoenix for trainer Reade Baker.  FATAL BULLET managed to finish 2nd in this race last year behind Midnight Lute, and a similar performance makes him a legit player here.  He’s another that tens to be forwardly placed throughout the race, and although two of his recent victories were in wire-to-wire fashion, he doesn’t need the lead to win.  Contender.

CROWN OF THORNS is a very lightly raced 4-year-old son of Repent that sill has room to move forward.  He was a fast rising star for trainer Richard Mandella in early 2008 before suffering an injury that had him on the shelf for over a year.  He’s returned this fall to run two very good races – even if they didn’t translate to victories.  Eligible for improvement in this his 3rd start of 2009, so don’t sell him too short.

GAYEGO – where do I begin with this guy?  Would you believe that in April of 2008 I had a dream that he would go on to win the Derby?  Yeah…shows how much stock I should probably put into such dreams.  Not only did he not win, he ran the two worst races of his life in the ’08 Derby and Preakness races.  Since then he’s been on the redemption trail, having won 4 of his last 5 starts.  Godolphin Stables seems to have found a way to bring this guy back to life.  He can be a pace factor, as evidence by his run in the Preakness, but is probably a better horse now that he’s learned to rate effectively.  In seven lifetime races over synthetic surfaces, he’s been in the exacta six times. 

DANCING IN SILKS is a 4-year-old son of Black Minnaloushe that is coming off his career best performance against Cal-breds in the Cal Cup Sprint Handicap on October 3rd, a victory that marked his 3rd in a row.  He’ll need to prove he can “class up” with the rest of the field to prevail here, although he certainly seems capable on his best stuff.  Trainer Carla Gaines is hitting at 34% with last out winners.

JOIN IN THE DANCE actually was the early pace in this year’s Kentucky Derby – a fact that many forget in light of the shocking upset pulled off by Mine That Bird that day.  The son of Sky Mesa would appear to be the longshot of the field for trainer Todd Pletcher, although he should enjoy the cut back in distance from the route races he’s been running in.  Another runner capable of adding to the pace equation, if nothing else.

CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN has developed nicely into a very good sprinter in his 2009 campaign.  He’s got the kind of off-the-pace running style that could set up nicely here in the BC Sprint, and 15/1 is certainly enough value to warrant giving him some consideration.  He’s a Candy Ride, so he should do fine over the Pro Ride, but folks probably won’t be questioning that much given his game 2nd place finish at Keeneland last out.  I think the Capt. has a shot in here.

FLEETING SPIRIT will attract some curiosity and attention by virtue of being the only Euro of the field, as well as the only filly.  The daughter of Invincible Spirit is a Group 1 winner, having taken the July Cup at Newmarket (GB) in July.  Her running lines suggest she sometimes encounters trouble at the start, but you know what – that could actually help here considering the fact that we have a contentious pace possibility in this race.  My notes show that Dettori will be aboard this miss in her attempt to add yet another feather in the hat of the “year of the filly.”  Respect her chances.

Tough race to crack.  Things would obviously be much simpler if ZENSATIONAL could be expected to get an easy lead and make the rest academic, but I don’t think that’s the case.  Considering he’ll be hammered at the windows and is already 6/5 on the morning line, I’m thinking he’s a favorite you can try to play against here.  The three horses that stick out to me with the best shots would be FATAL BULLET, FLEETING SPIRIT, and CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN, so if you’re fond of one of those runners, go ahead and take a shot.  This being the year of the filly and all, I’m going to take a bit of a stab with FLEETING SPIRIT at 8/1 and hope for the best. 

Selections:

  • #9 Fleeting Spirit (8/1)
  • #1 Zensational (7/5*)
  • #3 Fatal Bullet (9/2)

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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Santa Anita

Breeders’ Cup Mile Selections

4 11 2009

Eleven contenders are set to line up for a surprisingly deep field in the Grade 1 TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile on Saturday at Santa Anita.  The field includes last year’s champion filly Goldikova, who will be taking on the boys again in her quest for repeat glory. 

The field sets up as follows:

  1. Court Vision (12/1)
  2. Whatsthescript (15/1)
  3. Cowboy Cal (6/1)
  4. Delegator (3/1)
  5. Karelian (20/1)
  6. Courageous Cat (20/1)
  7. Ferneley (20/1)
  8. Zacinto (8/1)
  9. Gladiatorus (20/1)
  10. Justenuffhumor (10/1)
  11. Goldikova (8/5*)

Can Goldikova match the legacy of Miesque and make it back-to-back victories over the boys in the TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile?

COURT VISION – his wins may be few and far between lately, but 12/1 feels like a steal on this guy.  The son of Gulch was once a contender for the 2008 Kentucky Derby, but has become one of the better  turf runners in the U.S. since that point in time.  He’s had trouble facing off against Presious Passion, Gio Ponti, and Einstein this year, but will thankfully avoid all three in this race.  On the other hand, he now runs into the likes of GOLDIKOVA and DELEGATOR.  Rick Dutrow took over training COURT VISION and promptly helped him return to the winner’s circle last out in the Shadwell Turf Mile over soft footing at Keeneland.  On his best stuff, he can certainly be a factor here, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Dutrow have him ready to run a big one.  I like that he was a bit closer up in the Shadwell Turf Mile, as that may have helped him out over the late closing style that Dominguez and Mott employed in his previous 2009 starts.  This is a solid horse, although contention runs deep in this race.

WHATSTHESCRIPT finished 3rd in this race last year behind GOLDIKOVA and KIP DEVILLE.  To be honest, I liked his form coming into this event last year much better than what we’ve seen this year. You have to to back to the 2008 Del Mar mile to find his last victory, and while he can definitely threaten for a minor award, a win would seem to be just a bit of a stretch to predict here.  This is clearly his best distance, and he has run well over the Santa Anita turf. 

COWBOY CAL is admittedly one of my favorite horses in training.  There’s just something about him that I love.  The son of Giant’s Causeway will likely attempt to wire the field once again – something that’s been difficult to do at this level for him.  In recent races, JUSTENUFFHUMOR has seemingly had his number, but he has finished ahead of COURT VISION and WHATSTHESCRIPT.  Could this be the day he hangs on for victory?  It’s interesting to note that GOLDIKOVA seemingly got torched a bit by a very fast pace in the Prix de la Foret last out at Longchamp.  I don’t think COWBOY CAL will be going as fast here, but it shows that it’s not entirely impossible to envision him exiting victorious.  He’ll be my rooting interest in this race.  I haven’t definitively made up my mind yet how much I’ll support him with my wallet.

DELEGATOR is the first in a series of very live foreign invaders looking to take the TVG Mile.  Yet again, we’re dealing with a Godolphin runner that has (who else?) Dettori aboard.  The 3-year-old son of Dansili is a Group 2 winner at Goodwood, having prevailed in the Celebration Mile over today’s rival ZACINTO.  The names of horses he’s faced in recent races reads like a who’s who in terms of 2009 Breeders’ Cup contenders from Europe, including Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman (not to mention Sea the Stars).  A classy horse you’ve got to respect in this spot.

KARELIAN is one of the few horses in this field that I have trouble making a case for in terms of being a potential win candidate.  He’s a fine gelding, for sure, and seems to be running better now in his old age (7-years-old) than he did earlier in his career.  It’s just that he’ll be stepping up a bit in terms of class and would need the race of his life here to prevail.  Just about any of these guys could hit the board somewhere, but I wouldn’t recommend him as a win play.  Of course, if you do like him, then 20/1 is certainly worth a shot.

COURAGEOUS CAT – every time I type this horse’s name, I travel back to my childhood and the Saturday morning cartoon shorts of “Courageous Cat and Minute Mouse.”  Almost nobody seems to remember that, but it seems this guy’s connections do.  On paper the son of Storm Cat might not stand out, but keep in mind this is a relatively lightly raced 3-year-old who could be eligible to move forwarda bit. He’s got decent enough recent form, having won 3 of his last 4, but like others would probably need to run a career defining race here to prevail. 

FERNELEY managed to defeat Allicansayis Wow and Lethal Heat two races back in the Del Mar Mile, and then finished a game 2nd to Ventura in the Woodbine Mile.  That’s pretty good recent company to have kept.  The 5-year-old son of Ishiguru has fired fresh before back in April at Golden Gate, and would need a similar effort to have a shot here.  To that end, his workout tab is dotted with bullets lately.  Seems like an outsider at first glance but could be primed for a solid performance.

ZACINTO is a horse who might get overlooked a bit at the windows.  It’s hard to imagine that considering how the 3-year-old son of Dansili has classed up when facing Rip Van Winkle and DELEGATOR this year.  The morning line odds of 8/1 seem like a gift given this guy’s capability.  If you like DELEGATOR, don’t you have to like this guy as well?  I just question why the other is 3/1 and this guy is 8/1?  Seems a bit odd if you ask me, especially since ZACINTO was 3 1/4 lengths ahead of DELEGATOR at the wire in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) at Royal Ascot on September 25.  A major player in this race.

GLADIATORUS exits a victory in the Group 1 Premio Vittorio di Capua in Italy – a race I could tell you next to nothing about.  The son of Silic has faced off against GOLDIKOVA in the past, and did not turn in one of his more memorable performances (beaten by 20 1/2 lengths).  On the plus side, he has won 8 of 13 lifetime starts going 8 furlongs, and when he does run “his race”, he seems quite capable.  I just tend to prefer some of the other shippers a bit more.  He tends to lead early, according to his running lines, which suggests he may be a pace factor along with COWBOY CAL and perhaps COURAGEOUS CAT and/or KARELIAN.

JUSTENUFFHUMOR did not fire over the soft footing at Keeneland in the Shadwell Turf Mile last out, but prior to that flop had been 6 for his previous 6.  I think you draw a line through that last race and try to focus on his other races.  The son of Distorted Humor should be closing into the pace as they near the stretch, and if he can return to the form he showed in the Bernard Baruch Handicap (Grade 2), he can definitely factor here.  My main concern is that a mile just doesn’t seem on paper to be his best distance.  We shall see.

GODIKOVA - what can you say about one of the ladies who helped make the 2008/2009 seasons such a story book time for fillies and mares?  Far before the world went “Rachel crazy”, we had GOLDIKOVA defeating colts in the 2008 BC Mile.  Some folks might be ready to jump ship given her recent unexpected defeat in the Prix de la Foret (Group 1) at Longchamp last out, but I’m going to be forgiving here and assume that Goldi is still the horse to beat in this race.  She’s arguably the top miler in the world, and may have simply been too close to a hot pace last out in a race that she didn’t necessarily “need” to be ready here.  Trainer Freedie Head knows a thing or two about fillies in this race, having rode Miesque to victories in the 1988 and 1989 runnings of the BC Mile. She’s still the horse to beat, although this year seems to set up a bit more difficult than the 2008 race did – even with the presence of Kip Deville last year.

I’ll use GOLDIKOVA as top selection here.  ZACINTO and DELEGATOR would seem to be the top threats in my opinion, although I’m not going to count COWBOY CAL or COURT VISION out of this fight either.  A resurgent JUSTENUFFHUMOR looking to make amends makes this race much more competitive than folks probably thought prior to glancing at the past performances.  This seems like a great race to pick the horse(s) that you like the most and take a shot.  It should be a good one.

Selections:

  • #11 Goldikova (8/5*)
  • #8 Zacinto (8/1)
  • #4 Delegator (3/1)

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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Goldikova, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Santa Anita

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Selections

4 11 2009

It’s time for the not-so-aptly named (these past two years at least) Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.  From here on out we’re in Grade 1 territory.  Ten horses have lined up for a race that features another formidable favorite. I highly suspect this might be a race folks will be taking a stand on one way or another in the Pick 6 sequence.  The field sets up like this:

  1. Mastercraftsman (6/5*)
  2. Furthest Land (20/1)
  3. Midshipman (6/1)
  4. Bullsbay (3/1)
  5. Neko Bay (20/1)
  6. Mambo Meister (30/1)
  7. Pyro (10/1)
  8. Mr. Sidney (12/1)
  9. Chocolate Candy (15/1)
  10. Ready’s Echo (20/1)

Johnny Murtagh and Mastercraftsman loom the ones to beat in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

MASTERCRAFTSMAN comes into this race looking mighty tough to defeat.  The only horse to have bested this dude during the 2009 season has been a colt you may have heard of before; Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe champion Sea the Stars – who managed to defeat him 3 times in as many tries.  MASTERCRAFTSMAN never humiliated himself, even against that monster, and in fact ran 2nd to him in the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes at York (GB) back in August.  Even more importantly, he demonstrated his ability to win over synthetics by winning the Group 3 Diamond Stakes at Dundalk (IRE) last out.  A force to be reckoned with.  Beat him if you can.

FURTHEST LAND is a 20/1 longshot son of Smart Strike exiting his best ever performance last out at Turfway Park.  He sports an impressive 2 for 2 record over synthetic racing surfaces, albeit at longer distances.  He could find himself up close early on due to the absence of any standout speed in this race on paper.  Trainer Michael Maker is having a banner season, hitting at nearly 30% or better in each of the categories displayed on his Daily Racing Form running lines.  Intriguing, especially considering his anticipated value.

MIDSHIPMAN is best remembered as the champion of the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  He spent most of the 2009 season on the bench, but returned to defeat optional allowance claiming company at Belmont in September to signal his readiness for the 2009 Breeders’ Cup.  Godolphin Stables has been having a solid 2009 and you have to respect anything that they and trainer Saeed bin Suroor send to post, especially a 3-year-old that still has room for improvement.

BULLSBAY races for my main man, trainer Graham Motion.  The son of Tiznow sports a late closing kick that could be hampered if only a soft pace develops out in front of him.  Still, we’ve seen this guy run gamely against the likes of Rachel Alexandra, so you know he can hang with the best of ‘em.  His last synthetic effort in the Hollywood Gold Cup is the race that most California fans consistently pointed to throughout the year as  proof that horses Zenyatta had beaten (namely Life Is Sweet) had also defeated runners Rachel had beaten, but this guy totally flopped that day finishing 10th out of 13 and was clearly off his usual form.  Way back in 2008 he turned in a better performance finishing 3rd over the “plastics”, which is more along the lines of the type of performance he’d need to prevail here.  You know I’ll be rooting for Graham Motion and Bullsbay, but this one could be tough for BULLSBAY.

NEKO BAY seems to be a fairly consistent son of Giant’s Causeway for trainer John Shirreffs.   Mike Smith will hop aboard to complete the most popular human tandem in all of California racing at the moment, and this horse could make some noise here.  That last allowance race was tougher than it’s designation suggests, and he’s run gamely in both Grade 2 and Grade 3 efforts in the past.  Don’t take this guy too lightly.  He could be the sneak of this field – especially at 20/1.

MAMBO MEISTER is a son of King Cugat making his first synthetic start in the “Dirt” Mile.  Folks might shy away from him quite a bit due to the dreaded “dirt-to-synthetic” angle and the lack of proven Pro Ride form, but I like the fact that he’s won on both turf and dirt – horses that do that usually handle the synthetics just fine.  Whether he has the ability to run a career best coming off that last 100 Beyer figure performance is the bigger question.  One interesting angle to consider: what if this guy were to find himself on the lead?  His effort back in May in the Big Bubble suggests that’s possible. Just something to think about as you look at those 30/1 odds.

PYRO is a horse that folks seem to either love or hate.  Personally, I’ve always liked the guy.  He tries his best in each performance, even if he is something of a “plodder.” It’s interesting that he’s been effective since cutting back to the 7 furlong distance.   Trouble is, he has an attempt at the mile distance here over the Pro Ride, and it was not a performance to remember.  Still, Godolphin seems to have perked this guy back up since getting their hands on him from Steve Asmussen.  This is a horse who once trained alongside the mighty Curlin as that one prepared for the 2008 Dubai World Cup, and he was a Grade 1 winner at Saratoga this year in the Forego.  You could do a lot worse for your money.

MR. SIDNEY is an interesting turf runner (primarily) for trainer Bill Mott that will be giving it a second go on the synthetics here in the BC Mile.  His last effort resulted in a 2nd place finish at the allowance level last October at Keeneland.  It looks like he’s improved since then, having competed in numerous Grade 1 races, including a victory in the Makers Mark back in April.  Mott will obviously be hoping that newfound turf form translates into newfound Pro Ride form, and it’s certainly possible.  He seems to like to sit about 4 lengths back or so in the early going, so it’ll be interesting to see where he shakes out given the perplexing pace scenario here.  Probably needs a great trip from Kent Desormeaux to pull this one off.

CHOCOLATE CANDY is the son of Candy Ride that is owned by the famed Jenny Craig.  A steady diet of synthetic races since his couple of flops in the Derby and Belmont on dirt have resulted in improved performances, if not outright victory.  He’s an even running type that seems to not really have that extra gear that folks become enamored with on the race track, yet he’s a popular horse that seems to always generate a certain amount of buzz.  In his last four races, he’s run into Gitano Hernando, Grazen, Summer Bird, and of course Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby.  I don’t see him winning this race, but he can certainly hit the board.

READY”S ECHO is a rather nondescript (in terms of victories) son of More Than Ready that I best remember as one of trainer Todd Pletcher’s ubiquitous “shots” in the 2008 Belmont.  Since then he’s showed that he can hit the board, but would probably need the race of his life to win here.  Stranger things have happened, but I’m not biting – even though 20/1 is more than fair for a runner capable of 100+ Beyer figures.  One note in his favor – I actually think READY”S ECHO is a better synthetic runner than he ever was a dirt runner.  Just my humble opinion, althouth his 3-1-2-0 record over the stuff seems to support that claim.

I’ll use the obvious choice here in MASTERCRAFTSMAN for the win, as I don’t see anyone that instills confidence in me from an upset perspective.  Underneath I’m toying with playing some shots in both MAMBO MEISTER and NEKO BAY.  I’ll probably have to use my boy BULLSBAY here as well, and I’m sure my wife will talk me into using PYRO as well (she’s already mentioned “I saw Pyro is running!” excitedly….you know how that goes – now I can’t possibly let him beat me).  I think MIDSHIPMAN deserves a chance here as well, for like I said earlier, we still may have yet to see the best from this guy. 

Selections:

  • #1 Mastercraftsman (6/5*)
  • #6 Mambo Meister (30/1)
  • #5 Neko Bay (20/1)

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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Santa Anita

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