Lookin at Lucky Gets His Preak On

16 05 2010

As the field turned for home in Preakness 135 on Saturday afternoon at Pimlico, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert got exactly what he was looking for – a little luck.  On Thursday morning at the annual Alibi breakfast, Baffert had declared that his only desire was to see Lookin at Lucky “have a chance” turning for home.  As if sending us all an omen of what was to come, Baffert also joked around while being interviewed during an awkward moment when he noticed that the cameras were focused on the back of his white-haired head.  Little did we know that just a short while later the competition would be staring at the back of his Eclipse Award winning colt as the field hit the wire.

Full Results Chart for the 2010 Preakness from Equibase.

Whether it was the highly publicized jockey switch from Garrett Gomez to Martin Garcia, a better post position, or perhaps just a tad of mercy from the racing gods up above on high is anyone’s guess.  No matter which way you slice it, ‘Lucky has firmly entrenched himself atop the 3-year-old division, knocking off Kentucky Derby champion Super Saver in convincing style.  Despite jockey Calvin Borel’s boasts that Super Saver would win the Triple Crown, the Derby champion could fare no better than 8th – which winds up as the worst finish of a Derby winner in the Preakness since 1970 when Dust Commander was dusted and finished 9th.  Of course, Barbaro’s breakdown still stands as the worst nightmare suffered by a Derby champion in the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown, but thankfully we appear to have avoided the injury bug during this renewal.

It’s amazing how fast the pendulum of opinion in racing can swing in an extremely short amount of time.  Two weeks before the 2010 Kentucky Derby, Lookin’ at Lucky was thought of as a “stand out” amongst the 3-year-old division by many racing fans. The colt had encountered trouble in the Santa Anita Derby and fought back for 3rd when many horses would’ve quit, and conventional wisdom held that with a better trip in the Derby, he’d find a way to prove he was the most talented 3-year-old in racing. Then came the debacle of his horrific Derby trip, in which he was essentially knocked out of contention before the 1st turn.

Headed into the Preakness, the racing world was divided into two camps.  One thought Super Saver was so far superior that he could not be caught, even on Lucky’s best day.  The other thought the colt still deserved a shot and that if he ever got into the stretch without encountering trouble would show the world who he was.  I noted in several discussions that this felt quite a bit like 2007 with Curlin and Street Sense, and that though I did feel Super Saver deserved to be favored and given a slightly better chance that I couldn’t help but feel for that underdog role of Lucky, as many of the same angles seemed present this year.

With just a few minutes to post, the odds on the tote board reflected this close division amongst fans, with both colts showing 2/1 odds in the win pool. Super Saver was slightly favored and wound up going off as such at 9/5, but the Lucky faithful seemed to be growing by the minute.  When asked, I advised all listening that I was playing them both, as I envisioned them hitting the wire essentially together with perhaps the bob of a head being the difference of separation.

I can only imagine that for his diehard fans the moment Lucky turned for home was eerily reminiscent of my own experience in 2007 when I was there to cheer home Curlin.  You KNEW he had what Baffert wanted – a chance – and you knew it was going to take everything he had.  Could he summon the will power necessary to chase down the horse in front of him, or would another opportunity to cement his greatness slip passed him?  Despite having no personal affinity either way (my favorite 3-year-olds Odysseus, Eskendereya, and Endorsement all having been sidelined with injuries), I found myself subconsciously willing the horse on.  I guess there’s that little part of all of us that wants to see grit, hard work, and sheer determination justly rewarded.

When Lucky crossed the wire in 1:55.47, he did so by the slimmest margin since Curlin had nosed Street Sense and Calvin Borel in 2007.  The victory also tied Bob Baffert with D. Wayne Lukas for active trainers with the most Preakness victories (5). For Baffert, it was the first since 2002 with War Emblem.  Meanwhile, trainer Todd Pletcher, who had only two weeks ago finally got the 0-for-24 Kentucky Derby monkey off his back, is now 0-for-6 in the Preakness.

Of course, some will view the result of the race with a bit of remorse, as Lucky’s victory ensures the continued Triple Crown drought that has plagued the sport since Affirmed took home the coveted honor in 1978.  If there’s a big loser from the day’s events – it’s probably the folks at NYRA at Belmont Race Track.  By Sunday morning news was confirmed that neither the Kentucky Derby or Preakness winners would be heading to the Belmont on June 5th – assuring an anti-climatic aura of deflated excitement from what might have been had either Super Saver prevailed or one (or both) of the champions this year decided to make the trip.

For both horses though, the decision makes sense.  Super Saver just didn’t seem his usual self.  Pletcher and Borel commented that they thought the 2 weeks between the Derby and Preakness were too short for him. Of course, it would’ve been nice to have heard the information earlier in the week that NBC relayed as the field was being loaded into the gate that Super Saver had lost weight in between the two races, but I digress.  For Lucky the move is equally sensible, as he’s shipped all over the nation and battled ferociously everywhere he’s been.  A rest has been earned, and there’s no reason to push the colt further now that he’s validated his 2-year-old champion status.

Arguably the most awkward moment of the entire Preakness was the scene near the winner’s circle as the Baffert clan attempted to storm the old clubhouse for the requisite photo opportunity.  Security officials and Bob Baffert could be seen shouting and even using some physical force to push or pull people, sometimes in opposite directions at the same time, as split-second decisions were made as to who was allowed entrance and who had to remain outside.

Oddly enough, Baffert went into the fray several times whilst carrying his son Bode.  Former Vikings coach Mike Tice was amongst those allowed in.  I guess nobody wanted to squabble with a former NFL player.  Personally I should’ve seen the omens as Tice, upon arriving at Pimlico, passed by me with a crowd of Lookin at Lucky’s connections from which several loud “Roll Tide!!!’ cheers erupted at the sight of my “lucky” Bama hat.

Shoulda known, huh?

The surprise of the Preakness has to be considered First Dude.  Congratulations if you successfully identified him as a likely pace candidate.  For some reason I thought he’d be in more of a stalking position in the early going, and looking back I can already see the error of my ways.  The son of Stephen Got Even was widely dismissed at 24/1 (though I’m sure we’ll now be swamped by the Monday Morning quarterbacks all insisting they had him, despite the fact that only a few brave souls touted the horse publicly – including ESPN’s AWESOME Claire Novak - to whom I give much credit and respect for fantastic coverage of the Derby and Preakness), but fought on gamely for a determined second place finish.  When the opening half mile clicked off in :46.47, I assumed he’d be fading badly at the wire, but this was not the case at all.  ’Dude nearly stole the entire race if not for ‘Lucky’s heart and determination.

With the major players out of the Belmont, the possibility would seem to exist for a rather interesting race being setup behind a front running First Dude, looking to once again steal the race on the lead ala Da’ Tara in 2008, and Ice Box, the dead-late closer that was flying at Super Saver late in the Kentucky Derby.  It’s just a shame that most of America won’t be watching due to the lack of a Triple Crown hopeful.  That’s okay though – they never seem to know what they’re missing…and maybe there’s something special about the spectacle of horse racing being our own little secret wonder of a sport.  Still, I hope that at least some of the fans who beheld their first horse race during the Derby or the Preakness will stick around and become larger fans of the sport.  What they saw was just the tip of the iceberg.

On a personal note, I wish to thank the folks from CBS Radio and the Leffler Agency for having me on-site for handicapping assistance.  Ironically, I was positioned just across from our good friend Gary Quill – who was providing similar assistance to another group of distinguished guests.  We had a blast – and hopefully helped create a few new fans of the game.  My top 3 picks that “couldn’t lose” all came home on top, even if they were heavy chalk (Comedero, Blame, and Rainbow View), and technically I can add NorthPoint Costas to that mix as well.  The two horses we didn’t have that would’ve made for a day of EPIC proportions were Taqarub in the Maryland Sprint (pace handicapping having killed me again), and of course Strike A Deal in the Dixie – which continues to be my nemesis since that infamous photo of Amy and I being knocked from the 2008 Pick Six by Pays to Dream first surfaced.

The memory that will stay with me forever actually came during Rainbow View’s victory in the Gallorette.  Some of our hosts were “lucky” enough to witness a classic “Kevin moment” as she turned for home.  You may recall that I had the honor of covering the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic last fall for the NTRA?  Rainbow View was my pick in that race and, despite losing, the filly who most dearly stole my heart.  In deep stretch she appeared to be in trouble, but true to her class and style, she thundered home in that final furlong to beat Quiet Meadow by a half-length – all the while with me running amok along the turf rail shouting at the top of my lungs “C’mon Rainbow!!! C’mon baby girl!!!! Show ‘em who you are!!!”


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Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Lookin at Lucky, Pimlico, Preakness, Super Saver, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Preakness Selections

14 05 2010

The Woodland Vase - trophy of the Preakness Stakes

Preakness 135 – the day is FINALLY upon us.  After a fairly brutal afternoon at Pimlico on Friday (due to the heat, my lousy selections, and of course the spill in the Black Eyed Susan) – it’s time to make amends and “get our Preak on” with the selections.  As a much more learned man than I once opined (the great Master of Ceremonies himself – Hammer): It’s time to turn this mutha out!

We’ll focus on the major stakes races on the day, starting with the 6th (The Chick Lang Stakes).  You’re on your own for the early races – which I generally don’t do that well on anyway.  Overall, I’ll say that I though Friday was a much better day to play “beat the favorite” and that several of the favorites on Saturday’s card look more formidable – which of course means the exact opposite will probably happen, so wager accordingly!

Race 6 – Grade 3 Chick Lang Stakes – 6 Furlongs

The race named for the legendary “Mr. Preakness” himself, the late, great Chick Lang kicks off the major racing action for the day.  It’s not a very big field, so expect this to be a rather bland wagering opportunity.

  • #3 Comedero (7/5) – Worthy favorite is 6 for 6 sprinting.  His only loss came trying to go 1 Mile back in December. Respect.
  • #4 Quiet Invader (5/2) – Top challenger defeated Hurricane Ike last out.  If not for a freak injury earlier this week, Hurricane Ike would’ve been a popular betting interest in the Preakness.
  • #5 Latigo Shore (5/1) – Son of Malibu Moon has been steadied twice in 3 lifetime races.  His only clean trip he won for fun against Maidens.  Expect improvement.

 

Race 7 – The James W. Murphy Stakes – 1 Mile (Turf)
The JW Murphy came up a fairly tough race to decipher. Several contenders are making their first turf start – so quite literally anything can (and likely will) happen. I focused on those with turf experience, though the “dirt” horses are bound to offer better value on the tote board.

  • #11 Thunder Brew (5/1) – Exits back to back scores against softer competition.  Is also 2 for 2 at the mile distance.
  • #1 Cat Park (4/1) – Part of coupled entry for trainer Graham Motion that also includes #1A Vamos a Ver.  Was dusted by Paddy O’Prado and Dean’s Kitten 2 races back.  On his best stuff he makes sense here.
  • #2 Beau Choix (5/1) – No excuse for getting “caught” in last race.  Working like he wants to make amends.

 

Race 8 – Grade 3 William Donald Schaefer Stakes – 1 1/16 Miles
I joke that this race was almost changed to the Sheila Dixon stakes.  It’s a Baltimore thing.

  • #7 Blame (8/5) – Makes first start of 2010 campaign, but could be sitting on a big race.
  • #3 Understatement (2/1) – The most accomplished of the early-speed types in this race.  Seems to excel at this distance – though those wins all came at Aqueduct.
  • #1 Bullsbay (10/1) – May have lost a step, but he should get a solid pace to run at.  Never count a son of Tiznow out of any fight.

 

Race 9 – Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
I counted 5 runners here that I thought had a decent shot to win.  In addition to the selections listed below, #5 Quiet Meadow (10/1) and #2 Love’s Blush (20/1) warrant some attention as well in my opinion.  That being said, I’m a fairly big Rainbow View fan.  I’m fond of the filly – and hope she shows up with her best stuff.  I don’t think she’s a lock though by any stretch of the imagination.

  • #4 Rainbow View (1/1) – Classy filly has run respectably against the likes of Goldikova and Sariska.  Should improve on 2nd start of most recent form cycle.
  • #8 Shared Account (6/1) – Cuts back in distance where her early speed running style could set her up nicely.
  • #7 Denomination (10/1) – Smart Strike filly may finally be figuring out U.S. turf racing.

 

Race 10 – Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap – 6 Furlongs
Looks like another tough renewal of the MD Sprint.  The race seems wide open as just about the entire field is capable on their best stuff.  Beyond the listed selections,#11 Half Metal Jacket is another I’d give serious consideration despite the outside post draw.  The 11 hole seemed to do quite well on Friday.  That probably had more to do with the horses than the post, but suffice to say you might not want to automatically toss the outside runners.

  • #1 Snapshot (3/1) Thought the son of Awesome Again rated the best shot in this field.  The horses who have beaten him lately (Warrior’s Reward and Custom for Carlos) are pretty tough customers.
  • #3 Roaring Lion (6/1) – I don’t know that he absolutely needs the lead, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt.
  • #7 Ravalo (5/1) – Should appreciate return to dirt surface after pedestrian effort on synthetics.

 

Race 11 – The Grade 2 Dixie – 1 1/8 Miles – Turf
Over the years, this race has been my nemesis.  I’m captured in a Cindy Pierson Dulay photo of the 2008 renewal as longshot Pays to Dream crossed the line and knocked me out of a Pick 6 wager that was singled on Big Brown in the Preakness.  Thus, it comes as no surprise that I think 6 of the 13 horses in this field (nearly 50%) are threats to win the race and will be spreading DEEP here on the exotics.  Outside of the picks listed below, I’ll also be thinking about #9 Rahystrada (6/1), #6 Picou (10/1), and #5 Forgotten Dynasty (10/1).

  • #4 Just As Well (3/1) – I went “Captain Obvious” with the top selection as I thought this son of A.P. Indy might be the best horse in the field.   He hasn’t won since last July, but he’s faced the likes of Vodka, Champs Elysees, and Gio Ponti in that stretch.  He should find this field easier – with “should” being the operative term.
  • #2 Grassy (5/1) – A very well regarded son of El Prado (same sire as Paddy O’Prado) that just missed last out.  Could be ready to improve in 2nd start this year.
  • #13 Nicanor (8/1) – Forget those Preakness connections with Grassy I just mentioned…this here is Barbaro’s little brother!  He’s got some speed too, which he’ll likely have to flash from the 13 hole.  Even so he may need some angels on his withers when they enter deep stretch – but what a story it would be if pulled it off?

 

Race 12 – The 135th Preakness Stakes – 1 3/16 Miles
Here we go folks, the reason we are all here.  Will Super Saver march on to the Belmont with a pair of Triple Crown jewels in his pocket or will a rival jump up and snatch victory from Calvin Borel at the wire the way Curlin did in 2007?  We’ve already posted an initial “get to know the Preakness contenders” bit, so I’ll spare you the full field rundown.

Ultimately, I think 4 horses make logical win contenders here.  Obviously there’s Super Saver – that’s a no brainer.   Lookin at Lucky “should” get a better trip and has a chance to be right there at the wire.  Paddy O’Prado would be no surprise either – and by all accounts he’s looked well since arriving (just as he did at Churchill Downs 2 weeks ago).  Lastly, there’s Caracortado – who is becoming the “wiseguy’ horse of this Preakness.

As for the rest of the field, while conventional wisdom maintains that you focus only on horses that have run in the Kentucky Derby when searching for a Preakness winner (the only exceptions in recent memory being Rachel Alexandra in 2009, Bernardini in 2006, and Red Bullet in 2000), you might be interested to know how many times in the 13 renewals of the Preakness since 1997 in which a horse that did NOT run in the Kentucky Derby has finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd.  Check out page 7 of Derek Simon’s Preakness Betting Guide for what I feel is a telling illustration. If you’re looking for value horses to fill out the Exacta and Trifecta – be not afraid – recent history is on your side!

Caracortado would seem to be the logical “non-Derby starter” of this bunch to hit the board – but I’ll be honest and admit that I’m also keeping an eye on the odds for Yawanna Twist as well. Just a hunch – nothing more.  If anyone’s going to play the role of Macho Again from 2008 (the longshot who lit up the tote board under obvious favorite Big Brown), my gut says Yawanna Twist might be the one.

  • #8 Super Saver (5/2) – The Derby winner’s race to lose.   Has the tactical speed to prevail from either the lead or just off the early pace.
  • #7 Lookin at Lucky (3/1) – The time is now if he’s ever going to have his day.
  • #10 Paddy O’Prado (9/2) – Should be right next to Super Saver every step of the way. If the Derby winner gets beat, this horse will likely have a great deal to do with it.
  • #9 Caracortado (10/1) – “Scarface” has plenty of buzz around him.  Apparently he figures “another furlong, they’ll love me again.”
  • #5 Yawanna Twist (30/1) – My longshot bomber.  Light it up, baby.  Light up that tote board.  Evacuate the grandstand – we’re twisting on the dance floor!

Well folks – by the time this one goes official, the whole weekend will be a historical footnote.  Another memory quickly stuffed away and brought back only as a reference point for a particular story, or to illustrate a particular point.  Hopefully you’ve enjoyed yourself and spent some time living in the moment – and hopefully you’ve cashed a healthy amount of wagers along the way.

Now, readers, march away: and how thou pleasest, Preakness Gods, dispose the day!


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Triple Crown Coverage, Pimlico, Preakness, Triple Crown, horse racing, Lookin at Lucky, Super Saver, Paddy O'Prado, Caracortado

Super Saver Wins Kentucky Derby 136

2 05 2010

Another Derby is in the books and a new champion has been crowned.  Under the confident guide of jockey Calvin Borel, Super Saver, a 3-year-old son of Maria’s Mon out of the A.P. Indy mare Supercharger, has entered the history books as the winner of Kentucky Derby 136.

Yes – that Super Saver.  The same one who contended with Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy for tote board favoritism all throughout Derby weekend.  The same one who had been previously defeated by contenders Line of David, Homeboykris, and Discreetly Mine (twice) – not to mention a certain chestnut named Odysseus that we were fond of here.  The same Super Saver that lucky fan Glenn Fullerton supported with a $100,000 win wager he had earned in a contest from Churchill Downs (that’s him you see celebrating in the replay up above).

The win, of course, also broke the so-called “Derby curse” for trainer Todd Pletcher, who had been a seeming 0-for-infinity in recent years, despite saddling numerous horses each year.  Additionally, the folks over at Winstar got their first taste of Derby victory.  This once again should prove to racing fans that rules (no pun intended) were made to be broken.

As the field strode past in the post parade, I thought Super Saver looked feisty, but actually felt that Mission Impazible, Lookin at Lucky, and Awesome Act looked the best.  Stately Victor and the filly Devil May Care made decent impressions as well.  The odds on the tote board had been insane all weekend, with the public seemingly unsure of which direction to go.  People wondered whether the favorites should be tossed because of their post positions or included because of the “value” they were offering?  One horse remained constant on everyone’s lips though – Super Saver.

Earlier in the day, it had appeared that the rail was not the place a horse wanted to be in the stretch.  The rains at Churchill had seemingly made the center of the track prime real estate – but as the rain ceased and the crews worked tirelessly to improve conditions, that began to change.  Jockey Calvin Borel actually served notice two races before that the rail was open for business when he guided longshot Atta Boy Roy home to victory following a rail-riding trip in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs.  Anyone watching had to feel that it boded well for Super Saver’s chances.

When the gates swung open for the Kentucky Derby a few hours later, Conveyance and Sidney’s Candy shot out to the lead.  Going into the first turn, Mission Impazible and Lookin at Lucky both seemed to stop running.  Mission Impazible may have clipped heels early on, which no doubt had a negative impact on his trip.  Of course, he also bumped a bit with Devil May Care at the top of the stretch, so despite making a strong impression visually, the racing gods had clearly decided this would not be Mission Impazible’s day.

Lucky, the morning line favorite, once again found out that if it weren’t for bad luck, he’d have no luck at all.  According to jockey Garrett Gomez, he stopped running as they went into the turn after getting bounced around a bit.  There appeared to be some bumper-car action going on at this point in time.  It’s hard to tell for certain, but it looks like Paddy O’Prado came over a bit and forced Stately Victor into contact with Lucky.  Lucky would eventually improve his position, but he was not full of the kind of run many expected to see -  which makes me hope that the colt came out of this race healthy from a physical standpoint as he’s been through some awfully tough races this year.

The other morning line favorite, Sidney’s Candy, seemingly got used up from the 20 hole and the hot pace battle between he and Conveyance that resulted in a swift :46.16 opening half mile.  The son of Candy Ride simply had nothing in the tank when the stretch arrived and the real running began, eventually fading to 17th.

Calvin Borel and Super Saver used the well-patented “Bo-Rail” trip to stalk the hot pace until the field went into the turn, and then out finished the swerving Paddy O’Prado and the late flying Ice Box to the wire in 2:04.45.  Ice Box was 2 1/2 lengths back for place, while Paddy O’Prado needed all of the luck of the Irish he could muster to hang on for show.

Full results chart from Equibase.

Someone tell me why they shouldn’t have a lifesize statue of Borel at Churchill Downs?  Dude has now won 3 of the last 4 Kentucky Derbies with essentially the same move;  aboard Street Sense in 2007, Mine That Bird in 2009, and now Super Saver in 2010.

Looking ahead, I’m not sure anyone else was really running well late besides Super Saver, Ice Box, and Make Music For Me.  Paddy was tough enough to hang on for show – but as mentioned earlier, he may have been involved in some contact that helped knock other horses out of the race.  Obviously for Ice Box and Make Music For Me, they were aided by the swift early pace and were able to close into a tiring field – but where does this leave us for the Preakness two Saturdays from now?

My hunch is that if Ice Box’s connections decide to give him a 5 week rest for the Belmont (which seems logical given that he had 6 weeks off prior to the Derby), that Super Saver may be extremely difficult to beat.  If Borel’s past Derby winners are any indication, we know he’s a mortal lock for the Exacta (Street Sense and Mine That Bird having both finished 2nd in the Preakness in their respective tries).

It’ll be interesting to see who comes out of the Derby field and points to the Preakness.  If Lucky turns out healthy, Baffert might be inclined to ship.  Paddy O’ Prado would be interesting as well.  Another horse I’d like to see make his way to Baltimore, given the hearty performance he gave on the track, is the little fella Noble’s Promise.  For a moment there I thought he was making a powerful move as the field neared the top of the stretch – which was very surprising given the fact I had completely tossed him and thought he looked physically outmatched during the post parade.  I’d also like to see Mission Impazible and Stately Victor again.  Speaking of victors, can I add to that wishlist the Kentucky Oaks champion Blind Luck?

As for my own picks – we should probably just tuck them away in some far off dusty corner of the blogosphere and refer to them as “the picks we shall not speak of.” Awesome Act, my checkmark, finished 19th of 20 – marking the second consecutive year that my top choice has finished 19th out of 20 (Friesan Fire having earned similar distinction in 2009).

The monkey may be off Todd Pletcher’s back, but it is now firmly on mine.  I’m starting to feel a bit like D. Wayne Lukas.  Oh sure, I’ve cashed Derby wagers before – even did so this weekend on Super Saver – but I haven’t seen my top pick win the thing in years (going back to Barbaro in 2006).  Thankfully, my Preakness form is a mirror opposite, as we’ve had success every year since 2006 (go figure).  Who knows, with a little “luck”, hopefully that trend can continue.

For the now though, the million dollar question is whether Super Saver will triumph in the Preakness and complete the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown?  What say you?


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, horse racing, Odysseus, Awesome Act, Lookin at Lucky, Sidney's Candy, Super Saver, Paddy O'Prado

She came, she saw, she conquered

3 08 2009

“Vēnī, vīdī, vīcī”

The phrase was purportedly first used by Julius Caesar in a brief message to the Roman Senate following his victory over Pharnaces II of Pontus in 47 BC at the battle of Zela.  Following her dominant performance against colts in the 2009 Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park on Sunday, the amazing filly Rachel Alexandra might be neighing something eerily similar in her stall right now. 

 

 

Just like we all thought she would, Rachel conceded the early lead in the Haskell to Munnings, the son of 2004 champion sprinter Speightstown.  Summer Bird was determined to give Rachel a challenge and pulled up even with (and for a brief moment in front of) her as the field raced down the backstretch.  Then, the moment jockey Calvin Borel began to ask her for a bit more as the “real running” commenced, she responded in the style of a champion and began pulling away by open lengths.  By the time the field reached the sixteenth pole the race was beyond over and she was coasting in front by 6 lengths. 

Borel stopped asking her with about a hundred yards to run, and immediately broke into his trademark victory celebration by pointing to the crowd and blowing kisses.  Despite this, the amazing filly romped home in 1:47.21 – just off the track record.  Some might attribute this to the fact that the main track at Monmouth was sealed due to the (at times) torrential rain experienced earlier in the day, but having seen what this filly can do in the Kentucky Oaks, the Preakness, and the Mother Goose, I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that the final time was 99.999% “Rachel.”

The victory capped off an exciting day of racing at Monmouth.  It wasn’t a particularly good one for me as far as handicapping/wagering is concerned (I’m dreadful at such tasks when a track turns sloppy), but overall it was a day we won’t long forget.  We got to hang out with trainers Gary Stute (Papa Clem) and Tim Ice (Summer Bird).  I was interviewed by “Monmouth Park Insider” Mike Curci prior to the Haskell (though evidently I just missed meeting my friend and horse racing icon Ron Correll of TrackSideView), and of course was granted access to the paddock to see all of the horses, including Rachel Alexandra.  Then, we managed to run into Steve Asmussen and Calvin Borel as we prepared to leave.  To top things off, we also ran into Todd and Simon from TVG, who stopped for a quick chat and some photos.

 

 

I can’t say enough about any of these folks.  Gary Stute and Tim Ice were amazing.  Gary strikes me as the kind of guy that it must be fun to be around 24/7.  He just seemed full of smiles and in genuinely high spirits.  I suspect he’s a bit like that friend all of us has – the one that whenever you’re with you wind up having a good time no matter what it is you do?  He’s like a big kid, and incredibly friendly.  He even let us get up close to Papa Clem and pet him, which was especially thrilling for our 5-year-old.  I also found out that the lady in his entourage on Preakness Day who spotted my trademark ‘Bama hat and began yelling “ROLL TIDE” was his girlfriend.

Then there’s Tim Ice.  Talk about an impressive dude?  He turned 35 on the day that Summer Bird won the Belmont.  This is exactly the type of guy you want to root for as a racing fan.  He’s a bit intimidating due to his enormous stature (seriously…I’m used to being considered a bigger guy, but Tim TOWERS over me…if this horse racing thing doesn’t work out for him, I’m sure the Steelers could always use another outside linebacker or defensive end….if the dude ever played football, I’m certain he was a monster on the field), but he’s so down to earth and personable that at times you forget you’re talking to a guy who just won the Belmont!

After the race as he was walking back to the paddock, you could tell he was disappointed that his horse hadn’t won (Summer Bird had run his heart out for 2nd).  We caught eyes with him and he again came over to speak with us.  A fan standing nearby asked him for an autograph, and when he learned through the small talk that accompanies such situations that her son was serving in Iraq as a Marine, he stepped back, had a tremendously serious look come over his face (where before had been the disappointment of defeat) and remarked “people like him….they are the reason we’re able to enjoy things like this.” 

It was one of those moments that I think humbled everyone around.  Suddenly, for a brief moment, he had taken the spotlight off of him, and had the gathering crowd’s attention focused on this woman and the sacrifice that her son was making for all of us.  Suffice to say, given my background, we’re total Tim Ice fans now.  There won’t be another horse he sends to post that I don’t cheer my guts out for.  Amy felt rather fulfilled given that she picked Summer Bird in the Belmont and now knows what an awesome guy Tim is. 

If you ever get the chance to see Summer Bird in person,  I strongly recommend doing so as he’s one of the most fantastic looking colts I’ve had the chance to see close up. There’s nothing to be ashamed of in running 6 lengths behind Rachel.  Most runners wind up 20+ lengths back from her.  In recent memory, only Mine That Bird has been closer, and Summer Bird’s already defeated him in the Belmont.  Plus, Mine That Bird got some benefit in terms of softening up Rachel for the stretch by virtue of her outside (13) post position for the Preakness and the fact that she was on the gas from her first step out of the gate (not to mention that she was running on just 2 weeks rest for that race).  He’s an awesome colt in his own right and I one I hope to see him again in the Travers, The Classic, or who knows, maybe even the Goodwood?

 

 

The folks at Monmouth Park (and in particular, Sophia Mangalee, who’s husband Navin rode longshot My Dream Tomorrow into the money for show in the 3rd race of the day) really rolled out the red carpet treatment.   From early in the morning right on through the feature race itself.  I don’t think we’ll ever be able to thank them enough, apart from praying that Monmouth gets another shot at the Breeders’ Cup in the near future and gets some cooperation from the weather gods when their chance comes again.

Speaking of the weather…did it strike anyone else as ironic that the horrific storms subsided just in time for Rachel the Great to make her appearance on the track?  I do believe the sun even managed to stick it’s head through the clouds just before she arrived.  Fitting, I suppose, for in many ways Rachel’s magnificence has been a parting of the clouds for the sport itself.  While the weather may have dwindled down the hoped for attendance figures at Monmouth, there was still a helluva strong showing their to suppor her.  Coming hot on the heels of the Barabaro and Eight Belles disasters, the triumphs of Rachel Alexandra have had a unifying, healing, and pacifying effect on the entire sport, and have gone quite a ways towards rectifying the game’s image in the eyes of the public.

She’s the kind of horse people drive across half the country to see.  She’s the kind of horse parents bring their small children to see.  She’s the kind of horse that adults bring their now elderly parents back to the track to see, just as they had done for them years ago when they were little. She’s the kind of horse that reduces even the most proud of would-be horse racing authors to expressions like “wow!!!” and “OMG” on Twitter.  She reminds us what it was that we found so magical about this game when we first paid attention.  She reminds us why it is we follow along with the sport in every maiden race we can possibly feast our eyes upon, always searching for the next great one. 

So how do we measure a horse’s greatness? 

I thought Calvin Borel made a poignant remark following the race when asked whether we had seen her best yet.  I don’t recall the exact words, but he replied something to the effect that he wouldn’t truly know how great she was until another horse pulled even with her in the stretch and looked her dead in the eye.  That is, after all, the ultimate test of will.

In the immediate future their are two other distinct possibilities;  defeat older fillies and mares, and then defeat older boys.  If she can pull off both of those feats, than I think she’d be revered for the ages in a fashion similar to Ruffian.  Heck, she may already be there in the eyes of some, having become the first filly in 85 years to win the Preakness, and only the 2nd filly in 42 years to win the Haskell.

As if that’s not enough – consider what might be up next; The Travers.  No filly has even run in the Travers since Davona Dale in 1979, and no filly has won the Travers since Lady Rotha in 1915.  

Nineteen fifteen??? Are you kidding me? 

Austro-Hungary was still an “empire” in 1915.  The U.S. Army didn’t yet own a single tank in their armed forces.  Battleships still ruled the high seas.   The “Red Baron”, Manfred von Richtofen, had only begun pilot training in August of that year, and had not yet begun to terrorize allied airmen in the skies.  The Germans were bombing English cities using zeppelins!  Shoeless Joe Jackson and the Chicago freakin’ BlackSox were still 4 years away!  Thousands of American Civil War veterans were still collecting pensions.  The first stone in the Lincoln memorial was just being laid!

Does that put it properly in perspective? 

Even if she doesn’t go to the Travers, the point I’m making is that we’re witnessing right here and now the kind of thing that folks who are passionate about horse racing are likely to be talking about for decades to come.  

I know there are some who can’t stand the attention she receives.  This happens with every great runner.  We call these people “haters” these days, and they abound no matter what the sport or what the occassion.  There’s always someone waiting to rain on the parade the first opportunity they’re given.  I’ve never quite understood this.  I can understand folks having “favorites” and longing for certain connections to win over others, but I’ve never understood the folks who hope and wish for something to go wrong.  Hoping for a horse to lose?  Makes no sense to me.

We saw this a bit with Curlin in ’07 and (more specifically) in ’08.  No matter what he did, it wasn’t good enough.  No mater wich race he ran in (is their a single race he can ever be accused of “dodging?”) either the field was a joke or their was some other reason for the “haters” to dismiss – but only after they had warned us for weeks leading up to each and every race that “this” was the moment he was “going down.”  It’s rather morbid, if you ask me – and yes, there are folks out there who feel this way about Rachel today.

Thankfully, history seldom remembers the runners who pull the brief upset, and instead rewards consistent greatness with long term reverance and awe.  A microcosm of this was experienced on Sunday as we had SEVERAL conversations with very astute horse racing fans, none of which could remember the name of the longshot (Soul Warrior) who had just defeated Mine That Bird and Big Drama in the West Viriginia Derby the day before.  I should point out that one of the folks we spoke with was a relative of Dale Beckner, the jockey who rode Sould Warrior to victory.

My point is this, and hopefully it ties back into my previous ramblings about how we measure greatness…

History will remember that Rachel was the first filly in 85 years to win the Preakness.  It will remember that she was the 2nd filly in 42 years to win the Haskell.  If all goes as planned, it may remember her as the first filly in 94 years to win the Travers.  More importantly though, she will be remembered in name and cirucmstance across the expanse of time.  A decade from now, we’ll be comparing 3-year-old fillies to her.  Count on it.

There will always be Ruffian at the top, and of course there are countless other fillies and mares who have accomplished stunning success (some that even rival the success Rachel has achieved) -  including victories over older males – but because she did so on one of our biggest stages (the Preakness), and because she carries the iconic status of the “underdog” by virtue of being a girl running amongst boys (even when saddled with 1/5  favoritism at the beting windows), Rachel’s memory will burn bright for years to come.  And with each passing victory, her legend continues to grow.  I think that’s the thing to really take hold of.  When you watch Rachel run, realize that you are watching, in all likelihood, a living legend in the making.  How darned lucky we are to be alive to see it!

And of course, on a personal level, that hole in my heart that has existed since Curlin’s retirement was announced following the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic?  It’s been filled.  Or, as a buddy on Facebook responded, it’s been “fillied.”

As for Rachel…

She came, she saw, she conquered.


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Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Monmouth Park, Rachel Alexandra

A Saturday to remember

28 06 2009

What a Saturday we’ve just witnessed!  Where on earth shall I even begin?  As many of you know, this weekend we loaded up the family and completed a roughly 500 mile round trip journey to witness Rachel Alexandra’s return to racing in the Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont Park.  Ostensibly, the trip was a birthday present for my wife, who has grown quite attached to Rachel since watching her romp in the Kentucky Oaks in early May.  I use the term ostensibly here because, let’s be honest, you don’t have to twist my arm to get me to the track. 

With that in mind, we loaded up the family and rolled into New York city at roughly 1 Am Saturday morning.  Reveille was bright and early so that we could rise with time to do some morning handicapping, take in breakfast, and head out to Belmont for the day’s events.  Little did we know what we were in for.

At first glance, the prospects for the day seemed rather bleak.  As the scratches and changes for the day’s card were announced, it became clear that Rachel would be facing only two other horses in the Mother Goose.  Presumably (and forgive me if I’m mistaken here as with 500+ miles logged in the last 36 hours, suffice to say there hasn’t been a good deal of time available for fact checking) the Preakness champion had scared away most of her competition.  Eyebrows were raised that the race was even being run, but then again, given the healthy crowd on hand (which from my vantage point seemed quite larger than Curlin drew for his turf debut in the Man O’ War last summer)  that was largely there just to see Rachel- it seemed the correct decision to leave the race on the card.

Then, Rachel made her appearance.  I believe my “tweet“ at the time was something to the effect of “My god, just look at her!”  As unbelievably good as she appeared on Preakness day last month, she looked even better on Saturday.  I didn’t think that was humanly (equinely) possible, but somehow she looked bigger, stronger, and more majestic.  I blurted out “you guys are braver than me!”  to the jockeys aboard her competitors, and then sprinted back to our seats near the finish line to watch the race unfold.

Rachel Alexandra heading to post in the Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont Park - 6/27/09

After witnessing Rachel’s absolutely dominating performance, I think it’s safe to say that’s the last time 3-year-old fillies will be willing to take her on.  Seriously…it should probably be illegal.  They simply stand no chance against her.  Then again, beyond a late run from Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird in the Preakness, neither did the 3-year-old boys.  

 

 

Now, in all fairness her competitors helped her out a bit by running insanely fast early on.  Malibu Prayer and Flashing set  ”suicide fractions”  of :22.57 and :44.66 to open the race, but Rachel was every bit as good as advertised when asked for her run.  She simply inhaled her rivals once she made her move and then busted loose in jailbreak fashion to open up a 19 1/4 length victory in a stakes record time for the 1 1/8 mile race of 1:46.33.   

And you know what?  Watching her run, she could’ve gone faster if either her or jockey Calvin Borel had wanted to do so.   But why waste too much energy today when their are bigger and better things on the horizon?

Uh-oh…here comes that nasty debate again. 

You can’t mention Rachel’s future without two topics coming up right away;  The Breeders’ Cup and a potential showdown with Zenyatta.  For now, both remain unlikely as owner Jess Jackson maintains that Rachel will not run on the “plastics” under any circumstances.   Instead, races such as the Travers and the Haskell seem likely targets for her next effort. 

Speaking of Zenyatta, “slow cheetah” was not to be outdone, running fantastically as well.  In typical Zenyatta style she made it all look easy in whipping her 11th consecutive field to take the Grade 1 Vanity Handicap at Hollywood Park. 

 

 

It might not have looked as sexy as Rachel’s victory, but Zenyatta was carrying a daunting 129 pounds.   That’s no small task.  You won’t see a runner breaking track records carrying that kind of weight.  The important thing to note was that it still looked effortless for her.  Even with all that weight on her back  it still looks like she’s just toying with the competition.  What a beast!

Just as the other 3-year-old fillies seem powerless to stop Rachel, the older fillies and mares seem utterly incapable of stopping Zenyatta (“you cannot stop her, you can only hope to contain her!”)

Clearly, these two runners are the best in the business at the moment, and the horse racing world waits with baited breath wishing, hoping, and praying that somehow, someday we’ll see them face each other. 

About that potential Zenyatta/Rachel matchup that will continue to be the elephant in the room all year…a thought struck me on the way home that I just couldn’t shake.  Think on this for a moment, if you will.

Should we be pushing for a matchup between these two? 

Is our sport really not big enough at the moment for the greatness of each? 

We don’t exactly have a very deep pool of greatness to choose from.  I think it’s worth remembering that if/when they do meet up, that one of them would have to lose.  I guess at some level, in my heart of hearts, I don’t really want either of them to go through that.   True, Rachel’s doesn’t have the whole “undefeated” mystique that Zenyatta does, but she’s certainly on a roll that I’d hate to see stop.  Likewise, it would be incredibly special if Zenyatta could finish her career undefeated. 

I guess I can dream for now that if it ever does takes place, the two hit the wire in a dead heat.  That’s the way I’d write this story if it were my book.  Two valiant competitors, each with their own breathtaking style – giving one another all they can handle.  An agonizing photo finish.  And in the end, victory for each.   Oh well…a guy can dream can’t he? 

I’ll end on this note.  You guys know how strong my love of Curlin remains to this day.  Check this out and tell me I don’t have the best wife in the world?  Somehow she managed to obtain both Jess Jackson’s and Steve Asmussen’s autographs as they prepared to send Rachel to post.  When she first considered even bringing the hat, I tried to tell her that she’d never get the chance and that to even try was folly.  Good thing she didn’t listen to my advice!   As if that weren’t enough, thanks to a discussion with another Rachel fan from our Facebook fanclub, we managed to use Big Jerome in the 2nd leg of the late Pick 4 (Lisa, if you’re reading this – I’m talking about you, buddy!  Great call!).  That choice coupled with the timely disqualification of a runner in the final leg of the sequence led to a nice Pick 4 score that ended the day on an even higher note than had already been achieved.

Curlin hat autographed by Jess Jackson and Steve Asmussen 

So yes, apparently a guy can dream…and sometimes those dreams come true!  :)


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Categories : Belmont Park, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta

The fairy tale continues; Rachel Alexandra heads to the Mother Goose

17 06 2009

It’s in our darkest hours that we often find our brightest stars shine most brilliantly. Their radiance casting the perfect contrast to those bleak horizoned afternoons where nothing is as it seems, or as it should be.  In the midst of our emptiness, something catches our eye.  A glimpse perhaps, or even a glimmer.  In that micro-second when true greatness passes our field of vision and comes into contact with our consciousness, we are reminded again what it is to be moved, humbled, and awed by that which we so long to see.  We remember what it is to truly live life full of passion and pride.

 

The filly Rachel Alexandra becomes the first filly in 85 years to win the Preakness. Photo by Cindy Pierson Dulay - http://horseracing.about.comRachel Alexandra becomes the first filly in 85 years to win the Preakness. Photo by Cindy Pierson Dulay http://horseracing.about.com

 

The past few weeks have been riddled with the defeats of some of our most cherished and well respected runners.  It might be said that the most recent incarnation of this trend began when Mine That Bird was upset by the “other Bird” (Summer Bird) in the Belmont Stakes.  Heading into last weekend, much of the hype was then centered around the return of some of racing’s current biggest stars; Indian Blessing and Kip Deville, as well as the return of the nations most versatile older male in Einstein. Surely the return of such classy runners could be counted on to provide stability and familiarity to the frequently chaotic world of racing, right? Well, apparently not. The failure of each to left the upper echelons of several of the divisions of thoroughbred horse racing completely jumbled.

To be fair, Einstein received one of the worst trips in recent memory, and still fought on gamely. Let’s also not forget that he’s probably a slightly better turf runner than he is a dirt runner, so it’s not like the guy was on his preferred surface. While he went down in defeat to the 2008 Preakness runner-up, Macho Again, Einstein still remains the top older horse in the country…although the older male division has seemingly never been as weak and depleted as it is now. 

Think about it, beyond Einstein, who have we?  Well Armed comes to mind, after his multi-million dollar performance this March in the Dubai World Cup.  Can we still list Tiago in that category?  Macho Again certainly deserves some respect now for his performance in the Stephen Foster. Still, if this is the best we’ve got behind Einstein than things are quite desperate indeed.  How much do you want to bet the folks affiliated with the Breeders’ Cup are hoping the Euros can be enticed back across the pond to Santa Anita in substantial numbers this fall?

And it’s not like things are that much better in the older female division.  The only difference is that we’ve got a sure thing runner in Zenyatta that is so indisputably tops in the division (and indeed generally considered tops in all of thoroughbred horse racing in the U.S.) that the division appears healthier than it may really be.  It’s deeper than the older male division, for sure, but awfully top heavy with Zenyatta heads and shoulders above the rest. I’m not even going to type the logical theoretical follow-up to this statement.  I’ll just leave it as “what if?” I think you know where I’m going with this.  If for some reason Zenyatta were not racing, then what? It’s a scary thought.

Then there’s the 3-year-old Triple Crown season. Talk about a lack of clarity!  Much like in 2007, we had 3 different horses win each leg of the Triple Crown, with only Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird finishing in the money in each of the 3 legs.  For my money, that makes him the top 3-year-old male in the nation hands down, with “male” being the operative term.

The top overall 3-year-old in the nation in my mind is irrefutably Rachel Alexandra, the sensational filly who triumphed in the Preakness. Why, you ask?  Well, not only were her runs in the Kentucky Oaks and the Preakness examples of sheer brilliance, but she can also boast that she defeated the top male, Mine That Bird, in their only head-to-head match up.  Obviously the final chapter in this story is far from written, and one could easily see Mine That Bird and the rest of the boys getting a shot for revenge later on down the road. Who knows, with the right pace setup anything is possible.  I think we’ve learned the “anything is possible” lesson a million fold this year.

For the moment, however, there is simply no other horse in the nation with such immediately recognizable “star power” as Rachel.  It’ll be interesting to look back 20 years from now and find out what kind of a lasting impact she made on the many young boys and girls whose first memory of horse racing was that special third Saturday in May.  Might they have developed an affinity for the sport all of us have come to know and love?  I’m willing bet the answer will be yes for a good number of folks. Whether they remain fans or not depends on what happens from here on out.  The point is that she’s the kind of horse that can unite folks in a common bond of respect and admiration.  She has the potential to captivate audiences and catapult the sport, even if but for a moment, back to a position of national prominence.

I know the “smart money” says that it’s gambling that brings true “horseplayers” into the game to stay, but my visits to the tracks on major racing days over the years have convinced me that rule only applies to folks who will be wagering significant sums of money on a frequent basis. While that’s certainly important (betting handle being the lifeblood of the sport), it’s not the entire story.  Nor is it a particularly appealing way for the sport to branch out to future generations of fans (“gambling” being associated with a bevy of negative connotations).  There simply has to be something of substance and value besides the betting.  Let’s be honest, quite often an undercard maiden or lower level claiming race is actually a more intriguing “betting race” than the featured graded stakes of the day.

Just as important as the gamblers (and perhaps overlooked for far too long) are the folks who will tune in without wagering and thereby increase tv viewership (thus generating ad revenue, etc.) and the folks who will pay for admission and purchase souvenirs along the way. From being involved in a Rachel Alexandra fan club over on Facebook, I can tell you with absolute certainty that Rachel is EXACTLY the kind of horse with this sort of “crossover appeal” that the sport so desperately needs.

The proof was in the pudding on Preakness day when, despite a drop in actual attendance at Pimlico compared to the year before, the tv ratings and overall handle were up – the latter being especially remarkable given the present economic condition of the country.  Perhaps this has to do with my proximity to Baltimore and Pimlico, but I know that many of the folks I ran into following the Preakness were still buzzing about the filly, and here I’m talking about folks who had until that moment never so much as uttered a word about horse racing one way or the other.

My sense is that the majority of folks realize this, and that this probably fueled the disappointment many expressed when owner Jess Jackson decided to skip the Belmont and instead rest Rachel for her summer/fall campaign ahead.  I found this quite vexing, as I suspect many of the folks vocalizing disappointment at the withholding of Rachel from the race would have been the first to criticize had she run and something gone wrong. Thankfully, most people seemed to understand that the sound decision was to rest her, although it must be said that this decision did have a correspondingly detrimental effect on the overall profitability and marketability of the 2009 Belmont Stakes.  

Without a Triple Crown on the line, the crowd for Belmont 141 was markedly less than had witnessed Big Brown’s attempt at history in 2008.  Betting handle was down as well.  On the plus side, there were no reported plumbing problems this year. Still, the bottom line was that without a marquee runner (no disrespect to Mine That Bird, mind you, he just doesn’t have quite the same “crossover appeal”…although it must be said that Calvin Borel has become something of a household name after doing appearances on Lettermen, etc) the overall day was less than it might have been…at least from NYRA’s perspective.  

Fast forward to today and news that Rachel Alexandra will seek to make amends by traveling to Belmont to compete in the Mother Goose on June 27.  

Isn’t this exactly what we’ve needed?  I don’t know about you guys, but I’ve been suffering from a bit of post Belmontitis lately. You may have noticed this as the volume and frequency of posts has slackened quite a bit. The moment I heard it was confirmed that Rachel was running in the Mother Goose, my mind leaped into “action mode.” Travel arrangements, hotel accommodations – each of these were suddenly immediate priorities.  There’s simply no way I’m missing her in person…especially considering what a wonderful view one can get if they stake out a comfy spot in the paddock prior to the Mother Goose. 

Note: If you happen to be in the area that day, just look for the guy in his early 30′s wearing the crimson Alabama baseball cap with the big cursive “A”…who is no doubt gawking and dripping with excitement (and sweat, depending on the weather) as post time draws near. 

In fact, I’m attempting to organize a Facebook driven “meet up” for her fan club members.  Currently the idea is to meet under the paddock tote board immediately after the 5th race.  I’ll let you know if anything changes, of course.  The 5th race seemed perfect as it gives folks a chance to arrive at their leisure (not everyone being quite the “early birds” that we are), and should still provide ample time to enjoy the later races on the card without missing any of the Pick 4 action. 

Hopefully I’m not alone in this excitement.  I can think of no greater message that we, the fans, could send to horse racing to say “yes, it is about the horses” than to show up in force to welcome Rachel back in her first race since making history in the Preakness. 

I could even care less if she goes off at 1/9 (which she should be, anything else being an overlay). It’s not about the wagering (although, let me be honest…you KNOW I will be wagering). It’s about a chance to witness greatness. One of the few and fleeting opportunities to do so that we are afforded, made all the more important by the instability and lack of truly “great” horses in many of our divisions at the moment.

So with this in mind, I’ve only one question for you all…

Who’s coming with me?

 

 


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Categories : Belmont Park, Einstein, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Indian Blessing, Rachel Alexandra, Tiago, Z Humor

Revenge of the Bird; Summer Bird pulls the upset in Belmont 141

6 06 2009

Summer Bird pulls the upset in Belmont 141

For the second time in 3 years we’ve had each of the Triple Crown races won by different horses.  In 2007 it was Street Sense, Curlin, and Rags to Riches.  Now in 2009 it’s Mine That Bird, Rachel Alexandra, and Summer Bird.  We mentioned in the pre-race handicapping that it would not be a surprise if the “other Birdstone” prevailed.  With all of the attention focused on Mine That Bird, Charitable Man, and Dunkirk, the colt slipped under the radar and provided  jockey Kent Desormeaux (who was white hot, winning 4 races on the day including 3 in a row at one point in the early going) with a perfect opportunity to atone for the disappointment of Big Brown in the 2008 Belmont.

Post time favorite Mine That Bird did what we thought he’d do.  He ran his heart out and gave his best effort, but ultimately the ride by jockey Calvin Borel raised some eyebrows as many began questioning whether he asked the son of Birdstone for his run about a  furlong or so too soon.  It looked like Birdstone was a bit jumpy in the post parade, and about midway through the race he began giving Borel a bit of a fight, seeming to want to go at the horses to his front.  After the job Borel has done this Triple Crown season, I think the guy deserves to be given some slack even if he did move a bit early.  He’s only human, and it did look like the horse wanted to go. 

Meanwhile, jockey Kent Desormeaux expertly piloted Summer Bird through a run that looked very Borel/Mine That Bird-ish.  Patiently waiting at the back of the pack and positioned along the rail, Summer Bird eventually found a way through to the center of the track at the top of the stretch and then gunned down the dueling Mine That Bird and Dunkirk as Charitable Man began to fade.  For a moment at the top of the stretch it looked like Mine That Bird, Dunkirk, and Charitable Man were going to give us a 3 horse battle right down to the wire.  You can hear the wind being taken out of the crowd though as it became clear that none of these runners was going to resist Summer Bird’s powerful charge. 

Dunkirk also turned in a gutsy performance, setting the early pace through splits of :23.31 and :47.13, much faster than many had anticipated.  Many (including me) had expected Charitable Man and perhaps Miner’s Escape to set the early pace, but these two wound up taking behind Dunkirk in the early going along with Mr. Hot Stuff. 

For being a longshot, Summer Bird sure made quite the post parade impression.  I managed to tweet that he looked sensational as the field approached the gate. Luckily, at Amy’s urging, we put a quick win wager on him at the last second that came back quite lucrative.  Summer Bird crossed the wire in 2:27.31 and returned $25.80 for the win after being sent off at odds of 11/1.  It’s a good thing too, as we needed that win bet, having been bounced from the Pick 4 long before the Belmont when Gabby’s Golden Gal became the latest 3-year-old daughter of Medaglia d’Oro to shine on the center stage, joining Payton d’Oro and the super filly Rachel Alexandra. 

With the Belmont in the books, the Triple Crown season is now officially history.   Hats off to Mine That Bird, Rachel Alexandra, and Summer Bird for becoming the latest champions.  Let’s hope that this crop of 3-year-olds continues to shine on the race track.  It’ll be good for racing if Mine That Bird can bounce back later this year.  The “little gelding that could” is still a sensational runner.  Hopefully the distance of the Belmont didn’t zap his energy.  He’s probably earned  himself a lengthy layoff at this point to rest and recover.  Without a future standing stud, his connections will likely keep him racing as long as he’s healthy.

Speaking of healthy, can we all breathe a bit of a collective sigh of relief now?  We made it through the campaign without any serious injuries while in the national spotlight (although we did lose some good ones along the trail to injury, including but not limited to The Pamplemousse, Old Fashioned, Quality Road, and I Want Revenge).  We watched nervously as a full Derby field trudging along in the slop at Churchill.  We argued about the safety and soundness of a filly taking on the boys in the Preakness.  And now we’ve  had the grueling 1 1/2 mile distance of the Belmont, and as far as I’m aware at this moment in time all of the runners from these races have returned in relatively fine shape.  Maybe we can finally move past some of the more recent tragedies the sport has suffered?  Not that we’d ever want to forget…more so from a closure standpoint.  If not move past these memories completely, then at least take a step forward. 

So where does this crop of 3-year-olds rank in comparison to those of recent memory?  It’s still too early to say for sure.  Probably somewhere between the talented group from 2007 and the relatively weak group of 2008 (besides Big Brown) would be my guess.  Now we’ll see how they do when they begin to take on older horses for the first times this summer.  Usually that’s a fairly significant challenge, but the ranks of the quality older horses have been severely thinned in recent years. 

At the end of the day, I still feel confident in saying that the best horses in the nation are Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra. If  the versatile Einstein can take the Stephen Foster, then he’d certainly belong in the discussion as well.  The point is that there’s plenty of room for runners like Mine That Bird, Summer Bird, Dunkirk, and any of the other Triple Crown competitors  to come back and pick up additional graded stakes wins throughout the summer and fall. 

For now though, congratulations to trainer Tim Ice and the connections for Summer Bird, and a big round of applause to Kent Desormeaux for his perfect ride.  It may not have been the ending many expected, but it was still a beauty to behold. 

And to think….right around the corner we’ve got Saratoga and Del Mar. 


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, Dunkirk, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Mine That Bird, Summer Bird, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Belmont 141 Picks

5 06 2009

Race 11: The 141st running of The Belmont (G1) – 1 1/2 Miles

  • #1 Chocolate Candy (G. Gomez/ J. Hollendorfer) 10/1
  • #2 Dunkirk (J. Velazquez/ T. Pletcher) 4/1
  • #3 Mr. Hot Stuff (E. Prado/ E. Harty) 15/1
  • #4 Summer Bird (K. Desormeaux/ T. Ice) 12/1
  • #5 Luv Gov (M. Mena/ D. W. Lukas) 20/1
  • #6 Charitable Man (A. Garcia/ K. McLaughlin) 3/1
  • #7 Mine That Bird (C. Borel/ B. Woolley Jr.) 2/1*
  • #8 Flying Private (J. Leparoux/ D. W. Lukas) 12/1
  • #9 Miner’s Escape (J. Lezcano/ N. Zito) 15/1
  • #10  Brave Victory (R. Maragh/ N. Zito) 15/1

And here we are, the climax of the Triple Crown season.  It’s hard to believe we’re already here.  Having already looked at the stakes races comprising the awesome Belmont undercard for Saturday, it’s time to look forward to the 141st running of the Belmont itself.  Has it really been a full year since we gathered to watch Big Brown march towards what appeared to be a certain date with Triple Crown glory, only to have those hopes tossed out like so much trash?  Obviously we don’t have a horse with a Triple Crown on the line this time around, but as we all know jockey Calvin Borel is looking to sweep the 3-year-old classics nonetheless.  

Speaking of his horse, what can anyone say about Mine That Bird that hasn’t already been said?  You’ve got to love “the bird.”  Admittedly, he was not even an afterthought when I first made my Derby selections in early May.  After romping home at 50/1, I learned to respect him, but somehow left him out of place position on my Preakness trifecta.  Big mistake.  He once again thundered home in the stretch and if not for the ability of the super filly Rachel Alexandra may have had his own date with Triple Crown destiny.  For his efforts in those races, I’ve dubbed him “the little colt who could.”  Now he enters the Belmont as the undisputed favorite, with many folks ready to hand the race right to him.  In fact, many of these same people have already expressed angst that Rachel Alexandra then “stole” a potential Triple Crown from us.  I think I’ve said pretty much all I need to say about that subject, so I’ll refrain from going off on yet another Rachel related rant. 

He ought to run away with this one, right? 

It’s a foregone conclusion, right? 

Where’s that Lee Corso line I like to use in times like this?  

“Not so fast!” 

 

Lee Corso of ESPN College Gameday

 

Look, he’s clearly the most accomplished runner and the guy they are going to have to resist in the stretch, but there’s a chance that this race will set up the least to his liking of all the Triple Crown races.  We know he’s a closer, and closers tend to like as solid an early pace as they can get.  The trouble is  (from Mine That Bird’s perspective), where’s the speed in this race?  I’ve no doubt whatsoever that Mine That Bird will run his heart out.  You know he’ll do that much.  He’s also got a fairly explosive turn of foot once he decides to go, meaning I don’t think he’s as susceptible to a slow early pace as your typical dead-late closer might be.  I’m just suggesting that this race might not set up quite as favorably as the first two legs of the Triple Crown…which would seem odd considering he went from the absolute back of the pack in a 19 horse field on Derby day, never an easy accomplishment.  

Jockey Calvin Borel has predicted victory aboard Mine That Bird, and the other jockeys in this race would be foolish to concede the rail to him.  Mine That Bird did prove to us in the Preakness that he doesn’t need the rail to be effective though.  He can launch a dangerous assault in the stretch from the inside or from out wide.  Obviously his chances would increase exponentially if he did find a way through on the rail again.

But if this race isn’t a foregone conclusion, who might the spoiler be?

Let’s start with Charitable Man, who would appear to be the pace, or at a minimum part of whatever pace there is.  The improving son of Lemon Drop Kid should relish the extra distance (Lemon Drops tending to enjoy added ground), and if he can also get away with an early lead he might prove very tough.  It’s worth noting that he’s defeated Friesan Fire and Imperial Council (not to mention today’s rival #10 Brave Victory).  Not bad for having only raced 4 times in his career.  He’s also in the ever-important 3rd start of his current form cycle.  Miner’s Escape could also be a pace factor, but you get the feeling that Charitable Man has it within him to go right past him if he desires. 

One could see this race easily turning into whether the Derby champion can rundown the new challenger in the stretch.  When you close your eyes and think about it like that, this could be a good one.  We might be in for one of those stretch battles that we talk about for years to come.  A couple of years ago we were treated to this when Rags to Riches and Curlin fought it out down the length of the stretch.  That’s the kind of finale you can get when a race turns up rather paceless in the beginning and turns into an all out sprint in the final furlongs.  Of course, there’s always the possibility of a wire-to-wire winner in a race with limited pace. 

Looking over the rest of the field, it wasn’t long ago that Dunkirk was a trendy pick to win the Kentucky Derby.  After an 11th place finish that saw him defeated by 19 lengths, you don’t hear a lot of people talking about this horse anymore.  Is one race enough to totally sour on Dunkirk?  He’s listed at 4/1 on the morning line, which suggests he’s got a respectable chance.  If he were somehow able to repeat his effort in the Florida Derby, he would suddenly become quite scary here.  I think the question most handicappers will be asking is how effectively he’ll be able to handle the 1 1/2 mile distance of the Belmont.  Along those lines, trainer D. Wayne Lukas (who sends out longshots Luv Gov and Flying Private) had perhaps the best quote of the week: “They all can run a mile and a half.  Some just take longer than others.”  My feeling about Dunkirk is that he should easily be able to improve upon his Derby performance.  Just how much is a bit unclear, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this guy put it all together and ran a strong race.  If he runs anything like the Dunkirk that we thought he was going into the Florida Derby, he ought to be right there at the finish with a big shot.

Of the longer shots in the field, Chocolate Candy is a bit interesting at 10/1, although we still don’t really know how well this horse likes a true dirt surface. What we do know is that he’s a winner, having amassed over half a million dollars in lifetime earnings (2nd only to Mine That Bird in this field).  All things considered, and as awful as many horses had it in the Kentucky Derby, he did run on late for a very respectable 5th.  My concern though is that he may be more of a closer on dirt, in which case it would be hard to boost his chances over a runner like Mine That Bird.  If, however, he can be a bit more forwardly placed (say around midpack or so) in the early going, he could have a chance.  If you toss that Derby performance last out, he’d managed to hit the board in seven straight starts, with 4 of those being outright victories.

If you’re looking for a real longshot with a chance to score, why not take a good long look at Summer Bird?  He’s the gratuitous “other Birdstone” in this race.   Don’t we see this happen all the time?  Usually it’s with coupled entries, where we focus so much on one horse, and then their less heralded stable mate goes out and  prevails.  All of the focus is on Mine That Bird, and rightfully so.  Would it really be that big a surprise though if the “other Birdstone” runner turned in his best race?  I thought this guy looked fantastic going to post in both the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby.  Much like Chocolate Candy, he didn’t run all that badly in the Derby as he found a way to finish 6th.  That means 13 other runners finished behind him.  What’s more, he was a fast improving colt going into that race.  Jockey Kent Desormeaux takes the mount this weekend and will look to make amends for the anti climatic finish of heavily favored Big Brown in the 2008 Belmont.

You also can’t totally count out Nick Zito from any Belmont.  This year he’s got two longshots in the aforementioned Miner’s Escape and Brave Victory.  He shocked us all last year with a well bred longshot in Da’ Tara, so we can’t act totally surprised if he does it again.  I’d view both of his runners as outsiders, but you just never know with this guy.  Miner’s Escape is the Tesio winner, and will probably go off with the longer odds of the two, having only broken his maiden back on March 14. 

Another recent maiden graduate is D. Wayne Lukas’ longshot Luv Gov.  We heard during Preakness week that Luv Gov was “prepping for the Belmont.”  It would be only fitting and proper if he made his biggest splash in New York, as he’s named for disgraced former Governor Elliot  Spitzer.  Of course, Lukas also sends out the closer Flying Private, who was moving well late along with Mine That Bird in the Preakness and wound up finishing 4th with a career high Beyer of 102.  I’d love his chances if the pace were expected to be a bit hotter.  Still, you have to respect anything that “D Wayne” sends out to the track.

Lastly there is Mr. Hot Stuff.  The Tiznow of the field.  Just keep that in mind, as last year we let a Tiznow light up the tote board.  The trouble with this guy is that despite having run in the Derby, we’ve really got no idea how he likes the dirt.  At this point he seems to be more of a synthetic runner, but then again we said that about Colonel John last year and he wound up being pretty good on dirt himself.  I loved how he looked in the post parade for the Santa Anita Derby, although some thought he looked underdeveloped.  You know my thoughts on Tiznow colts.  NEVER underestimate the power of Tiznow!  Now if I could just follow my own advice as not only did I let Da’ Tara beat me last year, but in the past two months I’ve been knocked out of 3 Pick 4 tickets by longshot Tiznows. You’d think I’d have learned by now.  What’s even worse is that I have learned…it’s just that I seem to forget that lesson whenever the same scenario presents itself.  It’s hard to make a case for him on paper, but then again, he does have Edgar Prado aboard, and he does have an excuse for the poor Derby finish (as noted in his running line; ”bumped, squeezed st”)

So whom do we choose?

Man…can I pick a dead heat? 

I definitely think Mine That Bird is the best horse in this field.  No question. It’s just that the “best horse” does not always win the race. If they did than this entire game would be elementary.  I’m going to stick with him though, even with the shorter odds. Truth be told I’m desperately torn between him and Charitable Man. It’s a tough call, and while “Birdie” could prove vastly superior in the stretch, there seems to be enough going Charitable Man’s way to give him a very serious look in the post parade.  It would be incredibly foolish to leave either runner off the exotic wagers, so make sure you’ve got them both covered. 

I’ll probably use Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy, and Summer Bird in my trifecta as well. Depending on how they look in the post parade, I’d also consider using Mr. Hot Stuff and Flying Private on the bottom just in case they find their ways through.  The odds will be long enough that it might be worth the risk. Of course, using Mine That Bird, Flying Private, Chocolate Candy, and Summer Bird would make my ticket awfully heavy on the closers for a race that appears to be on the soft side pace wise.  Hmmmm…it’s probably best to let the paddock impressions decide the final selections for the bottom of the ticket.

Selections:

  • #7 Mine That Bird (2/1*)
  • #6 Charitable Man (3/1)
  • #1 Chocolate Candy (10/1)

Best of luck to everyone, and here’s hoping the weather takes a turn for the best here in the next 24 hours.  It’s been a rainy day all along the eastern seaboard, and Belmont sure could use some sunshine to dry out those track surfaces and help ensure a healthy crowd for Belmont 141.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, Dunkirk, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Mine That Bird, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

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