Breeders’ Cup Sprint Selections

5 11 2009

The Grade 1 Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Sprint has drawn a field of 9 to contest the 6 furlong sprint over the Pro Ride at Santa Anita.  An overall purse of $2 million will be on the line as California “zensation” Zensational as the morning line favorite will face off against Irish bred invader Fleeting Spirit as well as North American contenders like Fatal Bullet and Capt. Candyman Can.

The field sets up like this:

  1. Zensational (6/5*)
  2. Cost of Freedom (20/1)
  3. Fatal Bullet (9/2)
  4. Crown of Thorns (12/1)
  5. Gayego (5/2)
  6. Dancing in Silks (12/1)
  7. Join in the Dance (30/1)
  8. Capt. Candyman Can (15/1)
  9. Fleeting Spirit (8/1)

“Who can take the sprint race….come from off the pace?”  The Candyman can (perhaps)

ZENSATIONAL looms the favorite, and the 2nd most popular one whose name begins with the letter “z” on the day.  The son of Unbridled’s Song has rattled off 4 straight victories, as well as 5 of his last 6by steam rolling the local competition.  Quick out of the gate, he tends to either wire the field or press from 2nd position early on.  He’ll be fresh for this race, having not run since his victory in the Grade 1 Pat O’Brien in early September.  Like many a Bob Baffert trainee, his workout tab is filled with bullet drills.  Catch him to score.

COST OF FREEDOM is a 6-year-old son of Cee’s Tizzy that has only raced twice thus far in 2009.  The 2008 victor of the Grade 1 Ancient Title tried to repeat that performance last out in defense of his crown and came up short behind both GAYEGO and CROWN OF THORNS.  He could add some pace pressure to ZENSATIONAL, but probably wants to take back about a length or two behind him in the early going.  A 3 for 4 record at Santa Anita and a 5 for 7 record at the distance suggest he is not to be dismissed at 20/1 odds.

FATAL BULLET is a dangerous looking son of Red Bullet  coming off a Grade 3 victory in the Phoenix for trainer Reade Baker.  FATAL BULLET managed to finish 2nd in this race last year behind Midnight Lute, and a similar performance makes him a legit player here.  He’s another that tens to be forwardly placed throughout the race, and although two of his recent victories were in wire-to-wire fashion, he doesn’t need the lead to win.  Contender.

CROWN OF THORNS is a very lightly raced 4-year-old son of Repent that sill has room to move forward.  He was a fast rising star for trainer Richard Mandella in early 2008 before suffering an injury that had him on the shelf for over a year.  He’s returned this fall to run two very good races – even if they didn’t translate to victories.  Eligible for improvement in this his 3rd start of 2009, so don’t sell him too short.

GAYEGO – where do I begin with this guy?  Would you believe that in April of 2008 I had a dream that he would go on to win the Derby?  Yeah…shows how much stock I should probably put into such dreams.  Not only did he not win, he ran the two worst races of his life in the ’08 Derby and Preakness races.  Since then he’s been on the redemption trail, having won 4 of his last 5 starts.  Godolphin Stables seems to have found a way to bring this guy back to life.  He can be a pace factor, as evidence by his run in the Preakness, but is probably a better horse now that he’s learned to rate effectively.  In seven lifetime races over synthetic surfaces, he’s been in the exacta six times. 

DANCING IN SILKS is a 4-year-old son of Black Minnaloushe that is coming off his career best performance against Cal-breds in the Cal Cup Sprint Handicap on October 3rd, a victory that marked his 3rd in a row.  He’ll need to prove he can “class up” with the rest of the field to prevail here, although he certainly seems capable on his best stuff.  Trainer Carla Gaines is hitting at 34% with last out winners.

JOIN IN THE DANCE actually was the early pace in this year’s Kentucky Derby – a fact that many forget in light of the shocking upset pulled off by Mine That Bird that day.  The son of Sky Mesa would appear to be the longshot of the field for trainer Todd Pletcher, although he should enjoy the cut back in distance from the route races he’s been running in.  Another runner capable of adding to the pace equation, if nothing else.

CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN has developed nicely into a very good sprinter in his 2009 campaign.  He’s got the kind of off-the-pace running style that could set up nicely here in the BC Sprint, and 15/1 is certainly enough value to warrant giving him some consideration.  He’s a Candy Ride, so he should do fine over the Pro Ride, but folks probably won’t be questioning that much given his game 2nd place finish at Keeneland last out.  I think the Capt. has a shot in here.

FLEETING SPIRIT will attract some curiosity and attention by virtue of being the only Euro of the field, as well as the only filly.  The daughter of Invincible Spirit is a Group 1 winner, having taken the July Cup at Newmarket (GB) in July.  Her running lines suggest she sometimes encounters trouble at the start, but you know what – that could actually help here considering the fact that we have a contentious pace possibility in this race.  My notes show that Dettori will be aboard this miss in her attempt to add yet another feather in the hat of the “year of the filly.”  Respect her chances.

Tough race to crack.  Things would obviously be much simpler if ZENSATIONAL could be expected to get an easy lead and make the rest academic, but I don’t think that’s the case.  Considering he’ll be hammered at the windows and is already 6/5 on the morning line, I’m thinking he’s a favorite you can try to play against here.  The three horses that stick out to me with the best shots would be FATAL BULLET, FLEETING SPIRIT, and CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN, so if you’re fond of one of those runners, go ahead and take a shot.  This being the year of the filly and all, I’m going to take a bit of a stab with FLEETING SPIRIT at 8/1 and hope for the best. 

Selections:

  • #9 Fleeting Spirit (8/1)
  • #1 Zensational (7/5*)
  • #3 Fatal Bullet (9/2)

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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Santa Anita

Fountain of Youth a race of intrigue

27 02 2009

In the 16th century, Spanish explorer and conquistador Ponce de Leon is rumored to have searched high and wide for the mythical Fountain of Youth in order to cure his natural aging.  He never did find it.  Trying to decipher Saturday’s 63rd running of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park might be just as difficult a proposition.  We’ve got an incredibly deep field of talented and up-and-coming 3-year-old colts all trying to stamp there name on the Kentucky Derby Trail.  Twelve horses are entered (although one is likely shipping west for the day’s other feature, the Sham at Santa Anita).  The field sets up like this:

Past Performances for the G2 Fountain of Youth are available here

  1. Be Cee Cee (C. Velasquez/E. Plesa Jr.) 30/1
  2. Theregoesjojo (K. Desormeaux/ K. McPeek) 15/1
  3. Notonthesamepage (E. Trujillo/W. Ward) 4/1
  4. Take the Points (C. Decarlo/T. Pletcher) 10/1
  5. Jack Spratt (R. Douglas/M. Maker) 20/1
  6. Rocketing Returns (J. Lezcano/N. Zito) 15/1
  7. Beethoven (C. Borel/J. Ward Jr.) 12/1
  8. Break Water Edison (E. Coa/J. Kimmel) 15/1
  9. Capt. Candyman Can (J. Leparoux/I. Wilkes) 5/1
  10.  Taqarub (A. Garcia/K. McLaughlin) 6/1
  11.  Quality Road (J. Velazquez Jr./ J. Jerkens) 8/1
  12.  This Ones for Phil (E. Prado/R. Dutrow) 3/1*

Most of the attention in this race will likely be focused on what I refer to as the “Beyer freaks.”  That probably doesn’t need an explanation from most horseplayers.  Obviously this means “Phil” and “Not”.  If they run anything like those speed figures here, this race won’t be much of a mystery at all. 

The trouble with just blindly taking “Not” , who has the better post position (in theory) of the two is that he is likely to be involved in what appears to be a fairly hotly contested early pace in this race.   You get the feeling he is the speed, but Quality Road and Taqarub would appear to have something to say about that.  He also has the look of a sprinter when going over his running lines.  Sure he can burn ‘em at 6 furlongs and shorter, but can he do it going 8?  I’d say at 4/1 you make him prove it first.

“Phil” presents an altogether different problem in that he’s hung wide in the 12 hole.  Of course, we are talking trainer Rick Dutrow here – the man who got Big Brown to the winner’s circle in post 12 of the Florida Derby last year, and then from post 20 in the Kentucky Derby. I actually think the outside provides “Phil” with a clean break, which is something he’ll need trying to save some ground early and then stalking the hot pace.  The danger for him is getting cooked if the fractions are too hot up front.   That being said, he seems the proverbial bounce candidate, and at 3/1 in a field with as many options as this, he does warrant taking a chance against.   Respect him for sure, but don’t be paralyzed with fear over his Beyers. 

Ultimately this race does set up for a horse coming from off the pace.  The question for me is “how far off the pace?”  Let’s say Phil were to get burned up front early on.  Then what?   Well, 3 horses who could benefit are Capt. Candyman Can (5/1), Beethoven (12/1), and Break Water Edison (15/1).  Those are some decent prices, especially when you consider that two races back Beethoven beat Capt. Candyman Can.  Assuming we do get the expected pace scenario up front, and that we’re playing on the idea that to beat the favorite (“Phil”), we’d have to hope he gets a little tired  trying to keep up with the early pace, that really sets things up for Beethoven and Break Water Edison.

I know Beethoven is a popular upset pick form many handicappers, so I’m obviously not the only one seeing him with a huge chance here.  The race has to fall into his lap though as I don’t think that with all things being equal he can quite outrun the main rivals today.  

Breakwater Edison is my longshot bomber for the race.  Two months ago this guy might have been favored here.  Now he’s 15/1.  All he’s done in between is had one horrible trip.  We’ve all seen this before.  Is that last trip the “real” Break Water Edison, or were his runs in the end of his 2-year-old campaign more formful?  He was definitely facing (at least at that stage in their development) better when he faced off against Vineyard Haven, Cribnote, and Munnings on back to back occasions.  He’s Lemon Drop, so you know he likes all the extra ground (and experience) he can get.   There’s a lot to like about this guy at 15/1 is all I’m saying.  You can’t always come up with ways why a 15/1 can win a race like this, so being able to foresee him closing late into a hot early pace makes me think this guy could be a player here.

Quality Road and Taqarub look like very good horses, but they’d be a lot more appealing to me if they were the only speed in this race.  It seems to me that to win they are going to have to show they can relax a bit stretching out, which might be asking just a tad too much against this rather salty competition.

Honestly there’s a million ways you could go with this one.  I’m going bombing with my picks.  I’m playing Beethoven to win for $20, and putting him on top of my 10 cent Superfecta.  I’ll probably use “Phil”, Break Water Edison, and Capt. Candyman Can in second.   I like Theregoesjojo enough to add him in third, and Bee Cee Cee seems to have a tendency to wind up hitting the board as well.  I’ll add in Quality Road and “Not” for the bottom of the ticket.

Selections:

  • $20 Win:  #7 Beethoven
  • $.10 Superfecta: 7/8,9,12/1,2,8,9,12/1,2,3,8,9,11,12 ($6.00)

Best of luck to all. You wont’ get any argument out of me if you play “Phil” or the Capt. as the scenarios where they could win are just as likely (if not more).   Whatever you do, make sure you watch this one if you can as it looks like the best Derby prep that we’ve had thus far…at least on paper.


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail


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