Ten Memories From Breeders’ Cup 2010

7 11 2010

“We sat and heard in silence. What other expression had we that was not meant for such an awful universe of battle?” – Lt Frank Haskell –  Gettysburg, PA – July 3, 1863

It’s hard to believe that the 2010 Breeders’ Cup is already a historical memory.  With so much anticipation and build-up, I’m surprised each year as the races rattle off and the weekend winds down just how quickly the whole affair can happen.  This year, like all others before, was filled with memories; some of them favorable, some of them far more disconcerting.   On the plus side, attendance and betting handle were up from 2009.  On the downside the races didn’t quite end in the story-book fashion many were hoping for.  As we wind down from the weekend that was, I thought we might take a quick look back at 10 memories that will stay with us from the Breeders’ Cup 2010.

  • Jockey Fight 2010:

It’s a shame, but you sort of have to begin here. Things got off to a strange start in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup when Calvin Borel and Javier Castellano exchanged blows following the running of the  Breeders’ Cup Marathon. The moment was captured live on ESPN and instantly went viral – becoming the first sustained memory of the championship weekend.  From Castellano’s seemingly stunning left jab to the enraged look in Borel’s eyes as he was held back and then removed from the scene.

The entire ordeal was both bizarre and absurd.   This couldn’t have been the start the organizers of the Breeders’ Cup were hoping for, but there’s a line of thinking that suggests any exposure is good exposure, and if nothing else the novelty of two height-challenged individuals resorting to fisticuffs in the winner’s circle certainly attracted the attention of folks who would otherwise would not have cared.  The real tragedy was the number of times throughout the continuing racing coverage that “jockeyfight” was harped upon.  Additionally, the high drama surrounding the entire affair should’ve given us a clue as to the proper hunch play for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint the following day.

  • The Big 10 can’t play defense:

Sadly, horse racing fans have to be acutely aware of this fact, but any who didn’t already know that the teams of the Big 10 have a ways to go as far as being able to actually prevent opposing offenses from scoring at will got a healthy reality check about midway through the racing action on Saturday afternoon.   Just as ESPN was switching it’s coverage from ESPN2  to it’s main channel, fans were greeted with a stunning Overtime battle between Illinois and Michigan.

Yes, those two powerhouses fighting for middle-of-the-pack status within the conference wound up going through 3 OT periods before a winner was decided.  During that time racing fans the world over began to form organized resistance as it appeared we would not be able to see the running of the Juvenile.  Thankfully the heavens parted, Michigan sealed the game, and we wound up getting to see Uncle Mo’s brilliant performance (more on that in a moment) in stunning HD quality…and there was much rejoicing.

  • Rough Sailing breaking down:

Probably the saddest of all memories from the past weekend was the injury suffered by longshot Rough Sailing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.  The horse fell, dropping Napravnk from the saddle and then had to be taken away in an ambulance. Not long afterwards came word that the horse was euthanized. Ironically, the winning horse in the race, Tam Valour’s Pluck, was very near Rough Sailing when he fell, and jockey Garrett Gomez deserves credit for steering Pluck away from what seemed to be a collision in the making once Napravnik was on the ground.  A scary moment that could’ve turned out even worse if not for some quick thinking and reflexes.   Sadly, as far as Rough Sailing is concerned, there was no silver lining.   RIP.

  • Bet the longshots!

Right out of the gate we were greeted with a glimpse of what was to come when Eldaafer scored in the Marathon and returned $23.20 to win.  The only favorite that won on the first day was Awesome Feather, who still managed to return $10.40 worth of value to her supporters.  By the time the weekend was through we had witnessed More Than Real scoring at $29.20 in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, Dangerous Midge at $19.00 in the Turf, and bank breakers Dakota Phone ($77.40) and Shared Account ($94.00) in the Dirt Mile and Filly & Mare Turf, respectively.

Shared Account’s victory in particular being memorable as it came over the highly regarded and heavily favored Midday – and may have ultimately led to the decision of Arc winner Workforce being scratched from the BC Turf.  Suffice to say, if you played value horses over the favorites throughout the weekend, chances are you were highly rewarded.   Personally I didn’t catch either of the whoppers, and the victory by Dakota Phone bounced me from the Late Pick 4 on Saturday.

  • Uncle Mo exploding in the stretch to win the Juvenile:

The question everyone wants answered with the yearly running of the Juvenile is whether a 2-year-old exists that is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the competition in the division. While it’s still a long way to go until the “First Saturday in May”,  many folks will no doubt be looking back to Saturday’s performance from Uncle Mo as an early indication of a potential 2011 Kentucky Derby favorite.  Mo’ exploded in the stretch when asked by jockey John Velazquez and stopped the clock on the 1 1/16 mile race at 1:42.60, good enough for a 108 Beyer Speed Figure for the son of Indian Charlie.

Only time will tell if Mo is able to continue his form cycle into next season, but it’s interesting to note that the last horse use the race as a stepping stone to a victorious Derby campaign the following season, Street Sense, also won the Juvenile over the main track at Churchill.  Admittedly there may have been a speed bias favoring the rail during Street Sense’s06 Juvenile score, but for Uncle Mo it seemed like a simple case of being the far superior horse in the field.

  • Dakota Phone noses out Morning Line:

The score that essentially crushed my Pick 4 dreams in the final races of the championship weekend, the 37/1 victory by Dakota Phone was undboutedly a key component to a memorable weekend for those lucky enough to have covered him in the exotics.  The son of Zavata got up just in time to nose out the tepid early favorite, aptly named Morning Line, by a nose in the photo finish.

Personally, I had spread 6 horses deep to cover this race on my tickets, and like many folks I was reminded that in contentious Breeders’ Cup races, sometimes going 6 deep just isn’t enough.  I suppose it’s a bit of a handicapping lesson; if you’ve got no real opinion in a race and are covering that many runners, keep in mind that “anything can happen”, and in the case of the Breeders’ Cup, “anything” probably will happen.  Hats off to anyone that used this horse.

  • Unrivaled Belle best of the ladies:

In a race that featured the 3 biggest names of the division other than Zenyatta (Blind Luck, Life At Ten, and Havre De Grace), Unrivalled Belle may have been somewhat under the radar to many folks.  While clearly capable on her best stuff, it was assumed by most that one of the more highly touted runners would be able to reel her in during the stretch run.  Several handicappers did select Belle, however, most notably (in my opinion) the much adored Christina Olivares of TVG.

Wish I would’ve paid that selection more attention, but in truth by the time I caught this on the DVR I was a bit “opinioned out” and essentially not listening to anything more being said.  Big mistake.  The daughter of Unrivaled Song took command as the field entered the turn and then pulled away to a convincing 1 3/4 length score.  Blind Luck showed the heart of a champion but could not make up the ground that separated the two.

  • Life At Ten – the scratch that should’ve been:

As the field headed to post in the 2010 Ladies’ Classic, it was clear that something was wrong with Life at Ten.  A blind man could’ve seen it.  How this horse went to post is beyond me. She was the surest toss of the entire weekend once she was observed in the post parade.  Of course, that was little comfort to those of us who had confidently wagered on her in the multi-race exotics.  Todd Pletcher had himself a pretty good Breeders’ Cup weekend, but Life At Ten’s debacle is likely the memory that will haunt him the most.

Thankfully she appears to be okay and not seriously injured, but had something even more disastrous occurred I don’t think the game would’ve been able to avoid the proverbial backlash.  When folks who have never seen a horse race in their lives are asking questions like “why are they letting that horse run?”  you know things aren’t going well.

  • Goldikova makes it 3 in a row:

One has to wonder if somewhere in the back of her mind Goldikova wasn’t tired of playing second fiddle on the center stage for Breeders’ Cup 2010?   The champion proved she was every bit the super horse that we’ve made her out to be in earning her unprecedented 3rd consecutive Breeders’ Cup victory in the TVG Mile.  For a while it seemed like she may be in a bad spot, and turning for home I remember thinking “this is going to take everything you have.”  And yet, it didn’t, as the daughter o Anabaa pulled away to a clear 1 3/4 length victory over her primary foe, the Eclipse Award winning Gio Ponti.

For his part, Gio Ponti can now claim that if not for two of the greatest mares the sport has had in recent memory running the races of their lives, it might be he we are fawning over for consecutive Breeders’ Cup victories.  It was Gio, after all, who trailed the great Zenyatta during her 2010 Classic score.  The big question everyone is hoping for a positive answer to is whether Goldikova now tries to make it 4 in a row in 2011?  Considering she’s now won over 10% of the Turf Mile events ever run at the Breeders’ Cup, I’d expect it may still be a possibility.

  • Blame over Zenyatta in a Breeders’ Cup Classic photo finish

I’m torn on this moment and a bit confused as to what my proper feelings should be.  On the one hand I’ve liked Blame all year and thought he may be the only horse capable of holding off Zenyatta in deep stertch.  In fact, I even went so far as to predict a photo finish between the two in our pre-race handicapping selections.  On the other hand, despite the valiant effort, I’d be kidding if I claimed to not be a bit heart broken.

There was a feeling in the air, even as Zenyatta went to post amidst the roar of the crowd and began her patented “dancing” routine, that things were going to be desperate.  Early on in the race I thought she looked like she was not enjoying herself.  She’s always in the back of the pack but she was so far back I worried that she may wind up being pulled up.  Turning for home it seemed as if once again the great mare was going to find a way to thunder down the center of the track and into the history books.  She would have – if not for an equally game contender in Blame.   Someone must’ve forget to tell Blame that he was supposed to play 2nd fiddle to the great one, and he simply did what he knows to do best in holding off a living legend at the wire for the score.

Deflating for Zenyatta lovers?  Sure.  Indicative that Zenyatta is not the super horse of legend we’ve made her out to be?  Hardly.  In fact, I’d argue that the 2010 Classic was one of Zenyatta’s best performances given how absolutely out of it she seemed as the field entered the final turn.   A mile into the race she was in 11th position.  At the top of the stretch she was already in 3rd and rolling.  She may have lost the head bob, but she gained so much more in terms of respect and appreciation.  We learned that we don’t need perfection – as who amongst us can claim to be perfect in anything – in order to appreciate greatness.


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Categories : Blame, Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Zenyatta

Saturday Breeders’ Cup Selections

5 11 2010

Race 4: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

Similar to yesterday’s card, we start out with a race I don’t have a particularly strong opinion about.  Not a single runner in the entire field has a previous start over the Churchill dirt.  We know the turns are tight and the ground has been reportedly more firm than many of the Euro connections would prefer.  This race will be our first indication of how the European runners will fare the rest of the day.  Speaking of which, MASTER OF HOUNDS should be tough here if he has shipped well and will be my top selection.  I also like the looks of MANTOBA with Dettori aboard.  For the domestic runners I gravitated towards the outside horse, PLUCK, for Todd Pletcher even though I hate the post position.  MADMAN DIARIES came close to being my 3rd selection. You can really make a case for just about anyone in this field.  Tricky race to start the day off with.

  • Selections:
    • #5 Master of Hounds (9/2*)
    • #3 Mantoba (5/1)
    • #13 Pluck (6/1)

Race 5: The Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Sprint

I’m going to keep things fairly simple in the sprint.  I like the favorite, GIROLAMO quite a bit, but as the morning line odds of 3/1 suggest, he is a bit vulnerable here.  It’s interesting to note that he (along with Gio Ponti who races later in the card) are two examples that buck the myth that suggests horses who have faced Zenyatta don’t go on to achieve much of anything.  This son of A.P. Indy (one of many in the BC) took the G1 Vosburgh last out despite being “steadied” at one point early in the race.  BIG DRAMA is a horse that makes a good deal of sense here as well, but my gut tells me he finds a way to finish 2nd again.  CASH REFUND is probably the fastest of the field, which in theory should help for a sprint.  KINSALE KING figures to offer solid reward relative to his chances due to the recent “darkened form” in the last two efforts.  The horses that I was torn between for 3rd selection were ATTA BOY ROY and WARRIOR’s REWARD on the outside.  Definitely those are not ideal post positions, so despite the fact that I like both horses I had to leave one off.  I think of the two WARRIOR’s REWARD has the better chance to wind up in the winner’s circle, whereas ATTA BOY ROY has a better chance to hit-the-board (if that even makes sense…forgive me folks as I’m running on about 3 hours sleep).

  • Selections:
    • #2 Girolamo (3/1*)
    • #1 Big Drama (7/2)
    • #12 Warrior’s Reward (12/1)

Race 6: The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

This race was extremely difficult for me to narrow down even a top selection – perhaps the most difficult of all 14 championship races this weekend.  In fact, I’m not even going to do an analysis here. My advice is to just play whatever your opinion is and don’t listen to anything anyone else has to say.  If someone twisted my arm I’d say that I expect the pace to be fairly quick here, and that may setup for DUE DATE and CALIFORNIA FLAG to be rolling late.  I know just about everyone has totally given up on the Flag, but not me.  He can still beat these guys,  and 12/1 isn’t half bad on the horse that won this race last year.  Obviously the post position is horrific though and gives me great pause.  I like to use CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE but he seems to have trouble winning in graded stakes.  ROSE CATHERINE was going to be my top play as I feel she doesn’t “need” the lead in this, but I’ve begun to question that selection the more I look over the race.  Guess I’ll have to make SILVER TIMBER the top choice then?  The post isn’t bad and he makes some sense having defeated the aforementioned DUE DATE (not to mention $450k in earnings at the distance).

  • Selections:
    • #5 Silver Timber (4/1)
    • #9 Rose Catherine (6/1)
    • #12  California Flag (12/1)

Race 7 : The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

The Juvenile features a showdown between two highly regarded colts, BOYS AT TUSCANOVA and UNCLE MO.  My initial opinion is that UNCLE MO may be the best of the two at the mile-and-a-sixteenth distance, but I would advise using each of them in the win position on your exotics.  Looking over the rest of the field, STAY THIRSTY would make some sense to include underneath of the top two. MURJAN and BIONDETTI come into the race sporting perfect records from overseas, while J B’s THUNDER is a perfect 2 for 2 here in the U.S.  J P’s GUSTO hasn’t missed an Exacta since her debut in May.  Lastly you have the improving sons of Kentucky Derby champions Smarty Jones (ROGUE ROMANCE) and Fusaichi Pegasus (RIVETING REASON).  Even the “easy” races are filled with intrigue.

  • Selections:
    • #7 Uncle Mo (7/5*)
    • #2 Boys At Tuscanova (5/2)
    • #6 Stay Thirsty (8/1)

Race 8: The TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile (Turf):

While all of the attention is focused this day on the Classic and the undefeated Zenyatta, racing fans the world over are perhaps equally anxious to see GOLDIKOVA get her shot at defeating the boys for an unprecedented 3rd Breeders’ Cup victory (although that unprecedentedness may be fleeting, depending on developments later in the day).  We all know the story; trainer Freddie Head who rode the great Miesque to consecutive Mile victories has the daughter of Anabaa looking very tough to defeat, although it will be interesting to see if she can once again overcome some adversity in the form of post position and familiarity with the local track.  PACO BOY has the most familiarity with the favorite, having been defeated repeatedly at her hands (hooves). GIO PONTI is the x-factor here who probably is better suited for the BC Turf, but gives GOLDIKOVA’s connections something to think about.  PROVISO is another interesting runner who has rattled off 4 consecutive victories.  I haven’t liked what I’ve seen of SIDNEY’S CANDY in the morning workouts to support that horse as an upset contender. I could see including DELEGATOR as an underneath play.  COURT VISION is a horse I’ve always been fond of, but I can’t envision him defeating the likes of Goldi.  Look for history to be made in this race – hopefully not the last time we get to say that for the evening.

  • Selections
    • #10 Goldikova (6/5*)
    • #3 Gio Ponti (4/1)
    • #11 Proviso (12/1)

Race 9: The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

The Dirt Mile looks like another great betting race where folks have numerous logical directions they could go.  MORNING LINE was awarded favoritism at 7/2 but I think many of us are thinking this is a play against at those odds given the distance and post position questions for a one-turn mile.  I actually like the other Tiznow colt here, TIZWAY at 6/1.  I thought that was a big win in the Kelso last out over Cool Coal Man, and the 3rd behind Quality Road and Musket Man in the Metropolitan could look flattered by the end of the day depending on how those runners perform in the Classic.  HERE COMES BEN is another logical contender that you don’t want to let knock you out of the exotics.  CROWN OF THORNS was going to be a play against from me before his late scratch.  The x-factor horse I think may show up big here though is VINEYARD HAVEN.  I just wish he drew a better post position because I think he has every right to be there at the wire and 10/1 is attractive value.  Very interesting race.

  • Selections:
    • #2 Tizway (6/1)
    • #5 Here Comes Ben (6/1)
    • #12 Vineyard Haven (10/1)

Race 10: The Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Turf

For the sixth time in history, a winner of the Arc De Triomphe, the world’s richest turf race, will attempt to prevail in the BC Turf within the same year.  The previous competitors are 0 for 5 lifetime, so keep that in mind before accepting low odds on WORKFORCE.  Even more concerning has been the hot topic story this week that the connections feel Churchill’s turf course is “too firm” and does not have enough moisture in the ground to set up the Arc winner for his best run.  This is actually a continuing theme that we’ll have to pay close attention to throughout the weekend to see how the Euros hold up, but moisture in the forecast and the opportunity to have viewed numerous turf races prior to this point will hopefully have clarified the picture.  If you’re looking to beat captain obvious, I thought the other Arc runner, BEHKABAD made quite a bit of sense.  I’ll be using WINCHESTER and AL KHALI on some exotic plays.

  • Selections:
    • #6 Workforce (7/5*)
    • #7 Behkabad (9/5)
    • #5 Al Khali (10/1)

Race 11: The Breeders’ Cup Classic

And so it all comes down to this. One race, two minutes, and a date with destiny.  Obviously my heart, like that of every racing fan on Earth, will be beating rapidly in the hopes that Zenyatta will be able to unleash her trademark gigantic run down the center of the track and then gallop off into history as the greatest race horse that many of us younger fans have ever had the pleasure of seeing with our own eyes.  If she loses, well, unfortunately such circumstances tend to bring out the worst in human nature – but no mater what anyone says or types her legacy was sealed when she prevailed at Santa Anita last year.  Nothing can ever take away that accomplishment, and I fully expect her to be right there at the wire on Saturday.  The horse with the best chance of knocking down the champ has got to be BLAME.  I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a photo finish between them. LOOKIN AT LUCKY would make a great deal of sense to me here if he had not drawn such a crappy post position – but Baffert does seem quietly confident lately.  QUALITY ROAD and MUSKET MAN have every right to factor into the equation, and of course you’ve got a runner like HAYNESFIELD who was able to get loose on the lead and defeat BLAME last out.  I like BLAME and ZENYATTA hitting the wire together with MUSKET MAN edging out other rivals for 3rd.   If this is indeed the last time “slow cheetah” will grace us with her presence, here’s hoping she goes out as a winner.  This one’s going to be tough though, folks.  It may take her absolute best – but rest assured that her absolute best is pretty darned good.

  • Selections:
    • #8 Zenyatta (8/5*)
    • #5 Blame (9/2)
    • #7 Musket Man (20/1)

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Ladies’ Classic – Breeders’ Cup Friday Selections

4 11 2010
What’s this?  A new post from The Aspiring Horseplayer on Breeders’ Cup Eve?  Surely your eyes deceive you!

Clearly the rumors that I had retired to pursue my dream of chasing scantily clad Sherpa women through a series of increasingly complex obstacle courses in front of live studio audiences was a bit premature.  Yes, like an older champion thoroughbred returning from an extended layoff and hoping to recapture lost glory, the Prodigal Son hath returned to the racing blogosphere.  At least temporarily.

It’s been a long time, my friends (too long) – since June to be exact, and admittedly my absence deserves a brief explanation.  As much as I’ve wanted to continue writing regularly about the sport we love, the facts of life simply caught up with me (though thankfully I can still outrun Mindy Cohn).  Working full time, commuting long distances, and raising two young boys just didn’t leave anywhere near enough time to collect my thoughts and organize them into something worth posting.  Thankfully the proverbial torch has been passed to some more than capable writers/bloggers, some of whom I’m lucky enough to count among friends.

This weekend, however, is simply TOO BIG to ignore.  Zenyatta, my beloved “slow cheetah” aiming for a repeat in the Classic and a fitting wrap to her perfect career?  Goldikova trying to make it 3 in a row against the boys?  An Arc winner still in the mix (at least as of this writing) for the Turf?  Saying nothing would be akin to being bound and gagged and left in some swamp conditioned pit of despair.  It’s Breeders’ Cup time – that moment of the year where even my love of collegiate football cannot keep me from obsessing over the happenings at the race track.  I won’t be in actual attendance this year – the days of such distinguished honors having seemingly passed, but I will be here to cover both racing days in full – undoubtedly to the spattering of a handful of golf claps.

Let’s kick things off by looking over the Friday Breeders’ Cup races from Churchill Downs:

Race 5: The Breeders’ Cup Marathon (1 3/4 Miles)

Well, the skinny is that I’m 0 for 2 in “marathon’ events.  Not exactly the kind of grand return to the handicapping scene I was hoping for.  The way I see this race, I’ve never been a GIANT OAK fan and I’d really only take the tepid morning line favorite, AWESOME GEM, if the conditions were wet, so I’m going to shake things up and try something new.  It’s interesting to note that the Euros have done well in this race the last two years, so perhaps I roll the dice with one of them?  Obviously they aren’t running over synthetics this year, so it’s a bit of a risky proposition, but what the hey? Two contenders fit the description, BRIGHT HORIZON and PRECISION BREAK, with the better odds available on the latter.

  • Selections:
    • #9 Bright Horizon (10/1)
    • #11 Precision Break (15/1)
    • #12 A.U. Miner (9/2)

Race 6: The Juvenile Fillies Turf (1 Mile)

Usually the Juvenile Fillies Turf would be a race I’d throw darts at a wall and hope for the best.  This year feels different though, thanks in large part to the presence of WINTER MEMORIES.  The daughter of El Prado has looked very impressive finding the winner’s circle in each of her 2 starts.  She seems to have a decent stretch burst when she puts in her run, and I like the versatility she’s shown in those two starts over firm and yielding turf courses.  She’s capable of taking another step forward in her 3rd career start.  KATHMANBLU is another late running type that has prevailed at the lower stakes level.  A victory from the daughter of Bluegrass Cat would reward trainer Ken McPeek with his first Breeders’ Cup victory and is not out of the question at all here at 10/1.

  • Selections:
    • #7 Winter Memories (2/1*)
    • #4 Kathmanblu (10/1)
    • #13 Together (5/1)

Race 7: The Filly & Mare Sprint (7 Furlongs)

This could be the most wide open race on the card.  RIGHTLY SO drew a horrible post position in the 13 hole, which means we’ve got the warning flag out right away on a vulnerable 3/1 favorite.  Of course her front running style could render that less of a factor if she found her way out in front and was able to come over and save ground while relaxing a bit.  The presence of RINTERVAL in the 10 hole means that she may have to run a bit harder than her connections would like early on, and longshot MOONTUNE MISSY could also add to the pace equation.  Call me crazy but I think you roll the dice here. In my heart I’d like to select INFORMED DECISION, since she’s been so good to me in the past, but I have to side elsewhere this year.  I’m going to take a stab with GABBY’S GOLDEN GAL, who I thought made a good impression during Monday’s episode of “The Works”.  She’s not consistent, but her recent workouts suggest to me she may be primed for her best, and at 15/1 I don’t need much convincing.  SECRET GYPSY also makes a bit of sense here at 12/1 value.  I have a feeling folks are all over the board in this race so if you’ve got an opinion this looks like a good place to take a stab at a nice value play.

  • Selections:
    • #7 Gabby’s Golden Gal (15/1)
    • #3 Secret Gypsy (12/1)
    • #5 Evening Jewel (15/1)

Race 8: The Juvenile Fillies (1 1/16 Miles)

A field of 13 horses awaits the call to post for the 2010 Juvenile Fillies.  Admittedly I’m a bit torn here between A Z WARRIOR and AWESOME FEATHER.  Ultimately I’ll assume that A Z WARRIOR may be the superior horse, although what this daughter of Bernardini has lacked in terms of stringing together consecutive victories thus far in her young career is easily contrasted by the consistency of her primary foe.  AWESOME FEATHERS has been nothing short of her name in earning a perfect 5-for-5 mark.  Needless to say I’d suggest covering both on the exotics.  TELL A KELLY seems to be a classy enough daughter of Tapit. The surface switch and post position draw would be the obvious concerns, but the presence of local hero Calvin Borel will ensure the horse takes some action at the window.  R HEAT LIGHTNING drew a much more favorable post and is an obvious horse to consider in the exotics.

  • Selections:
    • #8 A Z Warrior (7/2*)
    • #4 Awesome Feather (6/1)
    • #2 Theyskens’ Theory (10/1)

Race 9: The Filly & Mare Turf (1 3/8 Miles)

We’ve got 11 horses to consider in the premier ladies’ turf event of the day, but I see this boiling down to a three horse race.  In one corner you have MIDDAY who appears a very strong favorite at 6/5.  Sarafina, who ran third to her in the Qatar Prix Vermeille, wound up finishing 3rd in the Arc, if that’s any indication.  The daughter of Oasis Dream has rattled off 3 consecutive victories and 4 of her last 5 races.  The turf course may be a bit firmer at Churchill than the Europeans are accustomed to, but if she’s shipped well she looks mighty dangerous.  The primary contender generating the most buzz in the racing world would have to be RED DESIRE, the Japanese-bred filly who couldn’t quite get it done over a yielding turf course at Belmont in her North American debut.  If you’ve watched along with TVG’s “The Works”, you’ve no doubt heard she’s reportedly training well.  Major player in this race, although admittedly I’d have to use her regardless given my fondness for ladies from that area of the world.  The x-factor here may be PLUMANIA, who was less than a length behind MIDDAY (and ahead of the aforementioned Sarafina) in the Vermeille.  Considering she was that close at Longchamp, 8/1 seems like a gift.

  • Selections:
    • #7 Midday (6/5*)
    • #10 Red Desire (8/1)
    • #1 Plumania (8/1)


Race 10: The Ladies’ Classic (1 1/8 Miles)

With 11 horses entered in the 2010 edition of the Ladies’ Classic, most of the attention will be focused on the big name contenders BLIND LUCK, HAVRE DE GRACE, and LIFE AT TEN.  Of the big 3 I prefer LIFE AT TEN at a decent price of 7/2.  The daughter of Malibu Moon has prevailed in 7 of her last 8 races, including the Grade 1 Beldame at Belmont Park on October 8.  The betting public will likely follow the morning line and favor BLIND LUCK, who has every right to win this race.  I simply feel she’s too vulnerable to accept 9/5 in this race.  HAVRE DE GRACE defeated BLIND LUCK last out yet finds her odds more than double those of her foe at 4/1 on the line.  Of the other runners, Unrivalled Belle did defeat Rachel Alexandra back in April, but has had a series of decent-if-unspectacular 2nd place finishes in New York ever since.  If you’re looking for a price play, consider using MALIBU PRAYER at 8/1 in the exotics.  She may drift upwards on the tote board if the bigger named horses take heavy play and could offer attractive risk/reward potential.  I’m thinking LIFE AT TEN will be too much for her foes in the stretch. I expect the other big names will vie for minor awards, but keep an eye on MALIBU PRAYER at a price.

  • Selections:
    • #1 Life At Ten (7/2)
    • #11 Havre De Grace (4/1)
    • #10 Blind Luck (9/5*)

Best of luck to everyone and remember to keep that bank roll padded for Saturday!


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Selections for Kentucky Derby Saturday

30 04 2010

After an amazing Friday that saw the valiant victory of Blind Luck catching Evening Jewel in the final stride at the wire in the Kentucky Oaks, attention now turns to the “greatest 2 minutes in sports” with the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.  Despite gorgeous weather on Friday storm clouds loom on the horizon for Saturday, prompting Churchill to already cancel morning workouts.

Obviously weather changes can cause havoc with handicapping selections posted a day in advance.  I make no apologies for the effects that  field decimating scratches may play with the picks that follow.

Before we begin though, let me just say this.  Typically I have fairly strong opinions going into the Derby.  This year, thanks to the injuries to horses like Odysseus, Endorsement, and of course Eskendereya – my opinions are nowhere near as strong as usual.  Complicating matters further was the odd post position draw that saw the top two contenders on the morning line – Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy – bookended on the extreme inside and outside, respectively.

Still, there’s only one Derby day each year, so without further adieu, let’s jump into the action. We’ll pick things up with the G3 Eight Belles (Race 6).

Race 6 – Grade 3 Eight Belles – 7 1/2 Furlongs

The opening stakes race of the day looks like a spot many will use as a single with Hot Dixie Chick.  There are a couple of horses capable of pulling the upset here, including the daughter of Indian Charlie breaking from the outside in the 7 hole, Visavis, and the horse drawn to her inside, Buckleupbuttercup.  Additionally, you’ve got the wily D. Wayne Lukas with Decelerator and the sneaky Rick Dutrow with Sister Resistor, who sports the kind of darkened form that should assure a good price on the board.  As much as I’d like a price to start off the day, I think this one turns out fairly obvious with Hot Dixie Chick getting the job done.

Selections:

  • #2 Hot Dixie Chick (1/1*)
  • #7 Visavis (4/1)
  • #1 Buckleupbuttercup (8/1)

Race 7: Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile – 1 Mile (Turf)

A fairly contentious field awaits for the 7th.  If you follow along here, you know that I’m a guy who has never met a Tiznow he didn’t like, and that makes Tizaqueena attractive here despite the short 5/2 price.  Hot Cha Cha would be no surprise to see in the winner’s circle as she may be peaking at the right point in time for this.  Perhaps the most intriguing entry is Fantasia, who competed against the likes of Stacelita and Rainbow View in Europe last year.  Her tune up last out was quite impressive, and with Leparoux aboard I think she has to be respected.  I’ll give Diamondrella a small shot here as well – as she may be setup well if the race comes up on soft turf as expected.

Selections:

  • #5 Tizaqueena (5/2*)
  • #3 Fantasia (5/1)
  • #6 Hot Cha Cha (3/1)

Race 8: Grade 1 Humana Distaff – 7 Furlongs

Informed Decision will likely attract much of the attention in the Humana Distaff, but count me among those concerned by the seasonal debut in which she was defeated by Dr. Zic and Dubai Majesty.  She’s going to be a very short price, but I don’t think she’s anywhere near as bulletproof from an exotic betting standpoint as Hot Dixie Chick is in Race 6.  I’m going to be playing Warbling here as my top play, who comes off three consecutive fairly strong performances and picks up the services of Ramon Dominguez.  Warbling is listed at 8/1 compared to 2/1 on Informed Decision – so it’s a value play all the way.  I may have loved Informed Decision in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last fall, but I’m not feeling as confident here.  You could honestly make a case for the entire field in the underneath positions of your exotics, even though I settled on likely pace player Dr. Zic,  so “…bet on who you will.”

Selections

  • #2 Warbling (8/1)
  • #3 Informed Decision (2/1*)
  • #1 Dr. Zic (9/2)

Race 9: Grade 2 Churchill Downs

Another interesting field awaits for the Churchill Downs Stakes. The theme for this race if your alive in the exotics is “Staying Alive.”  Several of last year’s top male sprinters have returned, including Munnings, Musket Man, and Kensei along with “now horses” like Wall Street Wonder, Warrior’s Reward, and Atta Boy Roy.  Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these win, so this looks like a race you’ve got to spread a bit on in the Pick 4 and Pick 6 sequences for some coverage.  My gut tells me that Wall Street Wonder and Warrior’s Reward are in the best shape right now, but I wouldn’t advise leaving any of the previously mentioned contenders off your tickets. Accredit is another you have to keep an eye on – especially if the race comes up sloppy.  I’ll be covering 3, 7, 9, 12, and 13 in my Pick 4 wager, if that’s any indication.

Selections:

  • #7 Warrior’s Reward (4/1)
  • #3 Wall Street Wonder (12/1)
  • #11 Kensei (10/1)

Race 10: Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

Another race with an opportunity to select a martial sounding horse.  I’ve already taken Warbling and Warrior’s Reward in the preceding races, so it’s probably no surprise that I’m on Battle of Hastings in the Woodford Reserve.  The son of Royal Applause hasn’t found the winner’s circle since last July, but he’s a fighter who is making the ever-intriguing 3rd start since his last layoff.  I’m also a Court Vision fan, so I’ve got to give him a chance as well.  Blues Street is another one I think you have to consider coming off 4 straight victories.  The x-factor of the race?  How about Loup Breton?  His form was darkened last out, but prior to that he seemed to be on his way to becoming fairly useful.  As for fan favorite General Quarters?  I’d use him underneath, but not on top.

Selections:

  • #5 Battle of Hastings (5/1)
  • #3 Court Vision (9/5*)
  • #7 Blues Street (6/1)

Race 11: Grade 1 Kentucky Derby  - 1 1/4 Miles

Well, here we are folks. If you’re a racing fan, you think about this moment 365 days a year – and now it’s here once again.  Twenty horses…$2 million on the line in purse earnings…a lifetime of fame, glory, and honor.  In just a few short hours, a 3-year-old will stamp themselves firmly atop the division by winning the marquee race of the year.  Who will it be?

Because of the anticipated forecast, I think you have to start with the horses in the lead.  Most likely that will include Line of David and Conveyance.  If these two hook up, they should cook each other – although in the slop speed horses seem to hang on just that little while longer to make them formidable.  Perhaps the horses with the best chances will be those coming from the next flight back?   There’s literally a half dozen horses you could anticipate being in such a position.

As for those with off-track pedigrees, many are focusing on Stately Victor, Awesome Act, and Mission Impazible.  I think all 3 of those horses make a lot of sense.  As long as Awesome Act can get the distance, he’d be my top play in the race.  That being said, there’s two pairs any contender must deal with to earn the honor of wearing the roses.

The first pair is the two morning line favorites; Lookin at Lucky breaking from the rail and Sidney’s Candy breaking from the extreme outside in the 20 hole.  I don’t think you can “toss” either of these safely, though many will do so in favor of a better price.  Trainer Bob Baffert summed up Lucky’s chances best when he said they were “screwed” if they didn’t break well.  I’m actually more concerned with Sidney’s post though, despite the fact that he should at least break cleanly without anyone to the outside.

The other pair are what I would term the x-factors; the filly Devil May Care and the horse who has seemingly stolen some of the Irish luck – Paddy O’ Prado.

We could go a million ways in this race.  At the end of the day I do think Awesome Act will be a force on the sloppy track, should that condition arise as expected.  Steve Haskin has noted the excellent off-track pedigree of Stately Victor, and by all accounts the colt has worked well enough to be considered in the mix.  Lastly, despite his seemingly turf/synthetic preference in his profile, I’m going to take a shot with Paddy O’Prado, who has worked well in preparation for the big show.

Like I said, ultimately I think Lucky and Sidney are the most talented – so play against them at your own risk - but from those post positions you won’t hear me argue with anyone who plays against them.  I’m leaving them out of my top selections below, but don’t think for a moment that I won’t have them in my picks somewhere.

Last but not least – you’ve got to to something with Super Saver, right? I mean, it is Calvin Bo-rail and from his post position draw he may well find himself in perfect position as the field begins the turn for home.

Drum roll, please…

Selections:

  • #16 Awesome Act (10/1)
  • #6 Stately Victor (30/1)
  • #11 Devil May Care (10/1)

Best of luck to everyone – and may all of your Derby wagers be signers!  :)


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Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta highlight Oaks Day on Friday

30 04 2009

A common recipe for success with travelling bands is to have another act “open” for you, warming up the crowd and getting them ready for the main event.  With the 2009 Kentucky Derby looming just hours away, the two best female horses in the country will take to the stage to do  a whole lot more than just open for the boys the following day.  When all is said and done, they just might be the highlight of the entire racing weekend. 

In a day filled with marquee racing, we begin by focusing our attention on the 24th running of the Grade 2 Louisville going 1 1/16 miles over the Churchill main track.  In a bit of a surprising move (to me at least), the connections of Zenyatta decided to throw racing fans a serious bone by bringing the “50 foot woman” back to kick off her 2009 5-year-old campaign right here on the Oaks day undercard.   I think I speak for every racing fan when I say “we’ll take it!”  Not since her scintillating performance in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic have we seen her race.  Six full months on the shelf resting, working, watching, and waiting.  Zenyatta doesn’t sleep…she waits!

After so much time on the shelf, you’ll forgive her if she comes out of the gate a bit rusty.  Of course she’s also travelled east away from the friendly confines of the Southern California racing circuit, where she has throttled everything they’ve thrown at her.  For some reason folks are whispering that might be an angle to take into consideration and perhaps play against her.   I think the layoff is the one and only concern with her, as we’ve seen her muscle her way through in dominating style on true dirt before in the 2008 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park.  In other words, I’ve got no worries about her on dirt.  

 

She is a bad, bad lady, and losing simply isn’t in her vocabulary.  With Curlin out of the picture in 2009, I’ve gravitated towards Zenyatta as my favorite horse in racing.   After all, she’s my slow cheetah.  :)

Even though she’ll be heavy chalk, I like her to prevail.  One Caroline will be the one she’s got to run down in the stretch, and with potential lone speed that runner could be a handful….or she could just be the next target for Zenyatta to set her sights on and devour in the stretch.   I’ll play Zenyatta over One Caroline in the exacta.   For the trifecta I’ll add in  Unbridled Belle to the place position, and then try to find a smidgen of value by adding in Swift Temper, Miss Isella,  and Modification on the bottom of the ticket in show position.

The Louisville is part of the Oaks Day Pick 6 sequence, but is not included in the late Pick 4 that ends on the feature race.   I’m not sure you can consider Zenyatta a true “free square” thanks to the layoff concern, but she’s still a solid play and obviously you can’t leave her off.  If you can afford to, I’d stretch a little and cover One Caroline just in case she gets away with easy splits out in front.  Ultimately I think Swift Temper will keep One Caroline honest and help set things up for Zenyatta to be rolling in the stretch, but just in case…well, you get the picture. 

Selections for the G2 Louisville:

$1 Trifecta:  2/4,8/ 1,3,4,6,8 = $8

*********************************************************

The feature race of the afternoon is the 135th running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, with 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/8 miles over the main dirt track for a total purse of $500,000.  All eyes will be on Rachel Alexandra, the filly phenom who has the horse racing world buzzing with her uber impressive 2009 campaign thus far, including victories in the Fair Ground Oaks and the Fantasy (Grade 2 races each).  She’s 3 for 3 this year and on a 4 for 4 roll going back  to late 2008.   The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro is good enough that I’m on record as saying she’d be a contender in the Derby had her connections decided to enter her there.  

 

Note:  For those of you who, like me, are not able to receive HRTV in your local viewing area, the Oaks is scheduled to be shown on Bravo as well, with a post time of 5:45PM ET.

To be fair, she’s got some competition here in the form of both Flying Spur on the outside, and Justwhistledixie to her immediate inside.  There’s also Gabby’s Golden Gal in the 4 hole with some speed, so Rachel likely won’t have as easy a time on the lead as she did in the Fair Grounds Oaks or the Fantasy.  Still, she doesn’t need the early lead to win.  I could see her sitting patiently in second if another runner wants to go lights out, and then making her move as they enter the final turn. 

Ultimately I believe rather strongly that Rachel Alexandra is the true “free square”  of the day in terms of the Pick 6 sequence (if such a thing as a “free square” can even be said to exist in horse racing, which is highly debatable at least).  I just can’t see any of these runners besting her.  Not on this big a stage.   I’ll play the chalk on top with Flying Spur and Justwhistledixie in place.  I’ll add in Gabby’s Golden Gal and Be Fair for show, as well as longshot Stone Legacy, if only because she looks like a closer and there’s ample speed in here for her to chase.

Selections for the G1 Oaks: 

$1 Trifecta:  6/ 5,8/ 2,3,4,5,8 = $8

*********************************************************

As for the rest of the undercard, and in particular the other races of the Pick 4 sequence that ends with Oaks in race 11, I’d say the theme should be to spread fairly deep.  I could make a case for 7 of the 12 runners in The Edgewood (race 8), and likewise could see opportunities for 7 of the 10 runners in the Grade 3 Alysheba (race 9).  Thankfully, the Grade 3 American Turf (race 10) looks a bit more formfull on paper, and I think you can dwindle it down to 3 logical contenders:  Stormalory, Battle of Hastings, and Bittel Road.   Ultimately I think you’ve got to take a stab at the Pick 4 pool thanks to the 50 cent minimum wager opportunity.   The ticket I’m considering playing looks like this at the moment:

Oaks Day $.50 Late Pick 4:

2,4,7,10/ 1,2,3,4,5,8/ 1,3,6/ 6  = $36

Best of luck to all, and of course to the jockeys, horses, and the numerous folks on the backside who help make it all happen, here’s hoping for a safe and exciting day for all.


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Curlin is unstoppable.

14 06 2008

Curlin destroys the competition in the G1 Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs on Saturday

 

Curlin. You cannot stop him.  You can only hope to contain him.

On Saturday at Churchill Downs, that’s exactly what a field of 9 competitors was hoping to do in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap.  Curlin’s connections had entered him into the Stephen Foster despite being assigned a daunting 128 pounds for the race  – 10 more pounds than the 2nd choice, Einstein, and as many as 15 pounds more than some of the other rivals. Adding even more intrigue was the fact that Curlin was breaking from the rail – a post position that did not seem to be his most comfortable. 

None of that mattered to the 4-year-old son of Smart Strike as the field turned for home.  Curlin kicked into high gear and blew away the competition, reaching the line a clear 4 1/4 lengths in front of Einstein and Barcola.  Curlin completed the 1 1/8 mile distance of the Stephen Foster in 1:49.68 after soft early fractions of 25.01 and 49.28 were set by pace setter Barcola.

Curlin was bumped by Delightful Kiss after breaking from the starting gate, but was able to settle into 4th in the early running while Barcola grabbed the early lead.  Eventually Sam P. came after Barcola, and as the field entered the far turn it appeared for a moment that Curlin was in a difficult position.  The consummate cool customer under pressure, Curlin waited until an opening appeared to angle wide around Barcola and then made his dash for the finish line with but a tap of the whip from jockey Robby Albarado followed by a handride through the lane.

Einstein, thought to perhaps be a turf specialist, was sent off as the 2nd choice and rallied to nip Barcola right at the wire for 2nd place.  Amazingly, despite being sent off at odds of 1-5, Curlin sat atop a $97.80 trifecta with Einstein and Barcola underneath.

Hats off to Jess Jackson, Steve Asmussen and company for having the guts to run the colt at such a weight disadvantage.  Asking a colt to carry 128  pounds after returning from Dubai is no small challenge.  Curlin, as he has done since the Breeder’s Cup Classic last fall, made it look like he was winning for fun. 

If there’s anyone left out there that doubts this colt’s greatness, I simply don’t know what to say.  In my admittedly short life (compared to some other horseplayers), this is clearly the best horse I’ve had the pleasure of seeing. What challenge could possibly be next?   Jess Jackson and Steve Asmussen have been nominating him for every major stakes race imaginable from here to France and all the way to Japan (and back again).  God knows what kind of weight they’d need to assign him to give anyone else a prayer of a chance. 

With the win in the Stephen Foster, Curlin boosts his all-time winnings to $9,396,800, or just $603,015 away from Cigar’s all-time earnings record.  As of right now, Curlin ranks 3rd all time, just behind Skip Away who currently resides in 2nd place with $9,616,630 in lifetime earnings.  If they can catch the right purse, Curlin’s next run might well be for the all-time lead.  He’s all but assured a place in the hall-of-fame when his racing days are over, and the stud fee he’ll one day command is unimaginable. 

For now, let’s continue to enjoy him while we can.  Horses like this come around maybe once in a lifetime.  He’s that special.  He’s that magnificent.  I’ve believed he was the best since his run in the Arkansas Derby, and every time he steps onto the track from here on out, history is written.  Enjoy him while you can.   With any luck his U.S. debut won’t be his last race in the states this year.  Overseas purses beckon, including a potential run on the turf (going clockwise) in the Arc de Triomphe on October 5, and the Japan Cup in Tokyo on November 30th.

Wherever he goes, and whenever he runs, the next one will be a historic moment that sport needs to hype as much as humanly possible.  You want superstars?  We’ve got one – and when all is said and done he should be firmly entrenched among the list of all-time greats. 


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Curlin’s 2008 U.S. debut headlines Saturday Churchill card

14 06 2008

The Saturday racing card at Churchill Downs marks the 2008 U.S. debut of defending Horse of the Year winner Curlin in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap.  The last time Curlin raced at Churchill downs he was a green 3-year-old that battled through a horrific trip to finish 3rd in the Kentucky Derby.  The son of Smart Strike used that effort, where jockey Robby Albarado said he “became a man” in the stretch, to move forward in what became his coming out party during the Preakness two weeks later.  The rest, as they say, is history as the colt has gone on to prove his dominance as the top U.S. dirt horse, as well as a force to be reckoned with on the international circuit with his resounding 7 length win in the prestigious Dubai World Cup in March.

A very strong undercard features 5 additional stakes races in what features to be an excellent day of thoroughbred racing. Let’s take a look at the stakes races, beginning with the Grade 2 Fleur De Lis Handicap in race 6, and running all the way through the Grade 3 Mint Julep in race 11. No doubt bettors will be focusing their action on these races in the pick 4 and pick 6 wagering. 

Race 6:  The Fleur De Lis Handicap (G2) – 1 1/8 miles.

  • #5 Hystericalady (4/5*)
  • #2 Peach Flambe (3/1)
  • #1 Aspiring (12/1)

#5 Hystericalady headlines the field and for good reason. She’s a grade 1 winner and has battled with the likes of Ginger Punch and Nashoba’s Key.  I think there’s enough speed in here today that she could sit a comfortable race just off the early pace and look to make her move in the stretch – where she should prove the best horse.  It’s going to take the best race of someone else’s life to get past her. #2 Peach Flambe would appear to be a contender based on speed figures alone.  I’m just not sure she’s good enough to seriously threaten Hystericalady.  She did run 2nd to Ginger Punch in the Sunshine Millions Distaff, but she was beaten handily by over 6 lengths. Hystericalady, on the other hand, gave Ginger Punch all she could handle in the Breeder’s Cup Distaff last fall.  #1 Aspiring is a horse I’ve got to use based on name alone, but besides that there’s really not much to like. 

Race 7: The Regret (G3) – 1 1/8 miles (turf)

  • #4 Pure Clan (7/5*)
  • #6 Magical Theater (10/1)
  • #3 Zee Zee (3/1)

#4 Pure Clan is 4 for 7 lifetime, with a pair of respectable losses to the late Eight Belles and another solid effort against Proud Spell last out.  She won’t find anyone of that caliber here today. The pace won’t exactly be ideal, but she should be able to sit a comfortable trip and make her move in the stretch to prevail. #6 Magical Theater exits back to back victories and although she’s only raced at the maiden and conditional allowance levels and steps up into stakes company today, she has beaten some return winners.  The daughter of Smart Strike has every reason to move forward today.  #3 Zee Zee has solid turf form and cannot be totally dismissed here. She’s had trouble classing up in the past, but has the ever useful third start off a layoff angle going for her as well.

Race 8: The Northern Dancer (G3) – 1 1/16 miles

  • #1 Recapturetheglory (3/1)
  • #2 Pyro (7/5*)
  • #6 Visionaire (5/1)

We’ve got plenty of familiar names to those who followed the 3-year-old campaign this year leading up to the 2008 Kentucky Derby.  All 3 of the runners exiting the Derby wound up in my selections today.  #1 Recapturetheglory will be on the lead from the 1 hole and look to wire this field.  There doesn’t appear to be any serious pace pressure here unless #5 My Pal Charlie decides to go after him, which may well happen since ‘Charlie’s best bet to hit the board is to be as forwardly placed as possible early on.  #2 Pyro was my top ranked 3-year-old until Big Brown arrived on the scene.  Since then things have gone wrong, and he must look to prove that the synthetic try in the Blue Grass and the bad start to the Derby warrant drawing lines through them.  If the colt that ran in the Louisiana Derby and the Risen Star shows up – he should be coming late to threaten for the score.  #6 Visionaire was progressing nicely until the same combo of races that Pyro ran into.  I’m thinking he’ll be in a nice stalking position turning for home here and if anyone can get to Recapturetheglory and My Pal Charlie, he should have a good shot.  Obviously I feel that #5 My Pal Charlie was hard to leave off as his name keeps popping up in this analysis.  #7 Texas WIldcatter also warrants consideration underneath.

Race 9:  The Jefferson Cup (G2) – 1 1/8 miles (turf)

  • #4 Tizdejavu (3/1*)
  • #7 Bobby Blue Eyes (6/1)
  • #3 Wicked Style (5/1)

Arguably the most difficult of the stakes races on the card to handicap. #4 Tizdejavu has yet to run a bad race in his career.  He prevailed by a nose at the G3 level last out and has been working beautifully in the interim.  He’s also a Tiznow colt, andI tend to have a fondness for them.  #7 Bobby Blue Eyes absolutely freaked last time out when hitting the grass for the first time to break his maiden by 10 lengths.  The competition gets deeper, and you always have to worry about a bounce off such a performance, but perhaps this one just really is that much better on the grass?  I’ll take my chances at decent odds.  #3 Wicked Style was a G1 winner before having a rough time in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.  I’m willing to think he needed that last race on 5/21 after a long layoff and will look for a better effort here.  I think another number you’ve got to consider in the multi-race wagers is #8 Go West Bert.  True, his freak move last out was in an off-the-turf race in the slop, but his form was solid on the grass prior to that.

Race 10: The Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) – 1 1/8 miles

  • #1 Curlin (3/5*)
  • #9 Barcola (20/1)
  • #4 Einstein (5/1)

The feature race of the day – and Curlin’s 2008 U.S. debut.  It’s been a long time since we last saw Curlin thrashing the world’s finest in the World Cup.  Even longer since we saw him romp in the slop at Monmouth in the Breeder’s Cup Classic.  If the horse we all know and love shows up – fahgetaboutit.  If he happens to have some Dubai rust on him, or is a bit too eager off the layoff and gets used up early and tires – then perhaps #9 Barcola has a shot to wire the field in a fashion similar to what Da’ Tara did last weekend (I know, I know – enough with the references to the Belmont). #4 Einstein looks playable to me, but you’ve got to hope he can be something close to what he usually is on grass. #5 Grasshopper could also be in the mix here today, andwill likely find a way into the money – but unless he brings his best I don’t see him hitting the wire in front.  Get ‘em Curlin – win this one and you’re within reach of Cigar’s all-time earnings.

Race 11: The Early Times Mint Julep (G3) – 1 1/16 miles (turf)

  • #3 Dreaming of Anna (1/1*)
  • #8 Kiss With a Twist (15/1)
  • #11 Ciao (6/1)

#1 Dreaming of Anna is the class of the field and has a legitimate shot to take them gate-to-wire in the closer. If she can prevail she’ll boost her lifetime earnings closer to the $2 million mark.  Her workout tab sure looks like she’s on her A-game. #8 Kiss With a Twist may be a surprise to hit the board.  Note a couple of things.  She’s a 4 year old daughter of Lemon Drop Kid and she seems to love the Churchill grass. She could surprise and move forward today. #11 Ciao also does some of her best running at Churchill on the grass and while thrashed by Dreaming of Anna in the Pucker Up (G3), she has matched class with Bit of Whimsy in the Mrs. Revere.  I’d also think of using #6 Street Sounds here as on her best she can hit the board. 

Best of luck to all, and as always be sure to check for late changes/scratches. 

Good luck Curlin – make us proud!

 


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Curlin, Grasshopper, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Pyro, Texas Wildcatter, Visionaire

Curlin draws the rail for the Stephen Foster

11 06 2008

Things just got a tad more difficult for the defending Horse of the Year in his 2008 U.S. Debut.  Already up against it, so to speak, from a weight disadvantage, the 4-year-old son of Smart Strike has now drawn the rail post position for Saturday’s running of the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs.

Why is this significant?  Well, consider for a moment that two times we’ve really seen Curlin stuck to the inside, he’s had some problems.  I’m of course referring to the opening moments of the 2007 Kentucky Derby, where he broke from the 2 hole, and his stretch battle with the filly Rags to Riches in the 2007 Belmont Stakes. 

During a pre-race interview for the Dubai World Cup, jockey Robby Albarado indicated that Curlin is a horse that seems to prefer running on the outside.  He likes to get horses on the lead in his sights and unleash his runs from around 4 to 5 wide when possible.  Moreover, Albarado indicated that Curlin doesn’t like being whipped on his left side – something that might prove a problem if he’s got horses in tight quarters to his right as they turn for home.

All of this is starting to add up to a difficult challenge for Curlin on Saturday.  Where once this seemed it would be a walk in the park against a field that was intimidated about facing him, you have to think that there are owners and trainers licking their lips now thinking they just might have a shot at beating him.

Everything will come down to his positioning as they turn for home.  Let’s not mistake this. Curlin is the best dirt horse in the world.  That fact is not debatable any more.  Still, if we’ve learned anything over the last few weeks, it’s that even the best are capable of encountering hardship in any given race.  I still expect him to prevail, and as Curlin is my favorite horse of all-time, I’ll be cheering my guts out for him as they turn for home, but I have to be honest here and say that I’m more worried about the setup in the Stephen Foster than I was when Curlin took on the best in the world in the Dubai World Cup.  In other words, this won’t be a piece of cake.

The field for the Stephen Foster looks as follows:

  1. Curlin  (Robby Albarado)
  2. Delightful Kiss (Miguel Mena)
  3. Sam P  (Kent Desormeaux)
  4. Einstein (Julien Leparoux)
  5. Grasshopper (Garrett Gomez)
  6. High Blues (Corey Lanerie)
  7. Red Rock Creek (Shaun Bridgmohan)
  8. Jonesboro (Jamie Thierot)
  9. Barcoloa (Jesus L. Castanon)
  10.  Brass Hat (Calvin Borel)

 


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Curlin, Horse Racing News

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