The Fifth Column – Updated Kentucky Derby Rankings

28 03 2010

It gives me great pleasure to unveil our fifth installment of the weekly Kentucky Derby rankings madness.  The weekend saw the defeats of Discreetly Mine and Conveyance from our previous Derby ranking list, and the emergence of a potential fifth column of new contenders looking to close the gap between themselves and the leading candidates.

In winning the Grade 3 Sunland Derby, Endorsement proved our good friend Tencentcielo prophetic in his prediction from a full week prior.  Additionally, our buddy Gary Quill called Dean’s Kitten in the Grade 2 Lane’s End Stakes.  Over on Twitter, Valerie from Foolish Pleasure gave out Mission Impazible as the other Pletcher in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby.  Congrats to all of you on your fine selections.  As for me, my picks were decidedly le stinky: Ron the Greek, Conveyance, and Northern Giant.

Obviously not my best stuff, and needless to say when I return from a business trip to Phoenix this week, I’ll be looking to make amends in the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, and Illinois Derby this Saturday.

  • #1 Odysseus

In all truth is probably best considered a notch below Eskendereya and Lookin at Lucky, but this has been my guy since mid-February, so I have to keep him here until he gives me reason to think otherwise.  Two portents of impending danger this week were the decision to point the son of Malibu Moon to the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland and the big ride jockey Rajiv Maragh had aboard Mission Impazible.  The latter sets up a potential decision for Maragh that impact Odysseus greatly.  One last omen is that he will run into an accomplished turf/synthetic horse with a good late kick in Interactif in the Toyota Blue Grass on 4/10.  My eyes, my heart, and my gut still tell me this is a real race horse.  If he’s the horse I think he is, he’ll catch the earnings he needs in the Blue Grass to secure a starting spot in the Derby.  He doesn’t need to win, but he’ll need a good trip to keep his sharp jockey on his back.

  • #2 Eskendereya

The son of Giant’s Causeway absolutely dominated competition in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes.  Two of the horses he thrashed; Ice Box and Pleasant Prince, came back to finish 1st and 2nd in the Grade 1 Florida Derby this past weekend.  The colt gives trainer Todd Pletcher arguably his best chance at a Kentucky Derby in years.  Will likely be the favorite in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3.  The Wood might come up tough, so he may be tested this weekend.

  • #3 Lookin at Lucky

Might be the best 3-year-old in the nation at the moment. Overcame a trip from hell to win the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park.  Oaklawn has been the launching point of numerous 3-year-olds in recent seasons, including Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2008.  This colt seems to have all the tools to be a Derby winner and more. According to the most recent news from Bloodhorse, he’s 90% certain for the Santa Anita Derby on April 3.  Will the moves from synthetics to dirt and back again be an issue, or is this colt simply too talented to be bothered by the shipping?

  • #4 Awesome Act

Remains my 2nd favorite 3-year-old on this list behind Odysseus.  Good looking son of Awesome Again has a potential showdown brewing with fellow top contender Eskendereya in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial this weekend.  The Gotham winner trained overseas in England for much of his career and was publicly dismissed by yours truly prior to his North American debut victory.  Now I consider him my Hard Spun of this crop (given that Odysseus is my Curlin, I guess that makes Lucky this year’s Street Sense as defending 2-year-old champion).

  • #5 Ice Box

Proves that this time of year is all about the what have you done for me lately approach.  Win a Grade 1 prep race AND show that you can come off the pace doing so?  That’ll give you a spot in the top 5 for now.  It’s noteworthy that he was crushed by Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth, but he never really got a chance to get uncorked in that race.  If the Derby winds up with anywhere near as much speed as it looks thus far, this guy would have to be considered a player on pace alone.

  • #6 Mission Impazible

Rousing victory for the son of Unbridled’s Song in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby makes him the fastest rising horse on the list.  Yet another contender for the ubiquitous Pletcher barn in their quest for a first Derby victory.  The Louisiana Derby was a strange race to me.  It looked fast early and a little ugly late, but Mission Impazible was running well through the wire.  Colt gives Rajiv Maragh something to think about with respect to the Kentucky Derby and Odysseus.

  • #7 Endorsement

I’ll probably take some flak for being so generous here, but let me make the case for this horse, as I think another contender just tossed their hat into the ring before our eyes.  He won the Grade 3 Sunland Derby in record time of 1:48.46.  In doing so, he defeated one of our “Cris Charter” (without the “h”) types in Conveyance, and the popular Tempted to Tapit.  He’s a son of Distorted Humor out of an A.P. Indy mare (Charmed Gift), so I don’t think distance will be a concern.  Seems to be peaking at the perfect time to potentially make some noise.

  • #8 Sidney’s Candy

Will evidently have to deal with Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby next Saturday, which might be a tall order.  Many question whether this horse can get the longer distances – especially if seriously challenged – but at the end of the day the son of Candy Ride is the San Felipe winner and did defeat Caracortado and Interactif in that race (despite setting easy early fractions).  As I’ve said from the start, could still be any kind of horse.

  • #9 Interactif

To many observers, this was the most impressive horse of the San Felipe, despite being defeated by Sidney’s Candy.  So far he’s proven over turf and synthetics, and usually that bodes well for a horse’s prospects at also being versatile enough to run strongly on dirt, but I’d rather know definitively going into the first Saturday in May.  Will go into the Toyota Blue Grass this weekend with a great chance to pull a victory over Odysseus on the synthetic Keeneland surface.  Just remember that at one point in 2007, Dominican beat Street Sense in the same race.

  • #10 Noble’s Promise

Without a doubt, the standout Rodney Dangerfield of our list.  Depending on how you look at him, he’s either a step away from having defeated Lookin at Lucky, or he’s a son of Cuvee that either can’t find a way to win the close ones and/or won’t get the distance of the Derby.  He seems like an overachiever to me, and he’s always right there in the mix.  Maybe folks forgot to tell him he’s just a son of Cuvee? Will face off against Dublin, Pulsion, and others in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.

Honorable Mention List (in no particular order):

  • Pleasant Prince - 2nd place finisher behind Ice Box in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.
  • Schoolyard Dreams – if Odysseus is my #1, this horse almost had him in a fittingly epic photo finish end to the G3 Tampa Bay Derby.
  • Drosselmeyer – Likely not Derby bound, but put in a good run in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and could be a player for the Preakness.
  • Caracortado – is the world still yours, Scarface?
  • Super Saver – needed a race going into the G3 Tampa Bay Derby.
  • Dublin – reunites with jockey Terry Thompson for the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on 4/10.
  • Conveyance - was no match in the stretch for Endorsement in the G3 Sunland Derby.
  • D’Funnybone – accomplished 1-turn horse being whispered as a potential Preakness candidate.
  • Dean’s Kitten - Not sure he beat anyone in the Lane’s End, but that was a 9 furlong Grade 2 victory.
  • Jackson Bend – another Rodney Dangerfield type who gets no respect, but will get a crack at Esky and Awesome Act in the Wood this weekend.

Coming up this Saturday, April 3 is a pair of prestigious Grade 1 races in the Wood Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby.  Also on tap is the Grade 3 Illinois Derby.


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Categories : Awesome Act, Conveyance, Discreetly Mine, Endorsement, Eskendereya, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Intearactif, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible, Noble's Promise, Odysseus, Sidney's Candy

Kentucky Derby Rankings – Episode IV: A New Hope

22 03 2010

With 40 days to go until the 2010 Kentucky Derby, it’s time to take another look at the top contenders and see if we can make any sense of things.  The past weekend saw the emergence of a long awaited true closer in Ice Box with his victory in the Grade 1 Florida Derby over the likes of Rule and Lentenor.  We also saw D’Funnybone do his thing at the 7 furlong distance, and while it’s always fun to watch him at work, the word on the street for now is that the Preakness would be his likely destination this May.

To be honest, there isn’t a whole lot of change from last week’s rankings.  The top 4 horses, in my opinion, appear to be a notch above the rest.  Positions 5 through 10 are where the real arguments seem to be.  There’s probably a good dozen or more runners one could consider for those spots, and certainly there will be more in the next couple of weeks.

For now, doing our best Steve Haskin impression, here’s where we stand on the matter:

  • #1 Odysseus

No surprises here.  The big red colt who began his Kentucky Derby Odyssey in relative obscurity and burst onto the scene with a heroic effort against Schoolyard Dreams in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby.  The only real question now is what they’ll do with him over the next 7 weeks.  Rumors fly around that he may be “trained up” to the Derby, although the Arkansas Derby and the Toyota Bluegrass have been mentioned as possibilities (so was the Wood at one point).  From the moment we first noticed him,  the similarities have been apparent between he and another big red colt that many of us developed strong affections for.  He could be entering the Derby even greener than Curlin was – which isn’t a good thing.  I won’t argue with those that have him ranked lower.  This is my horse, and I’m sticking with him through thick and thin.  Even if the Preakness might be a wiser, (slightly) longer term goal.

  • #2 Eskendereya

The  horse most likely to be found atop other Derby watch lists, and for good reason.  The son of Giant’s Causeway absolutely dominated competition in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes.  Two of the horses he thrashed; Ice Box and Pleasant Prince, came back to finish 1st and 2nd in the Grade 1 Florida Derby this past weekend.  The colt gives trainer Todd Pletcher arguably his best chance at a Kentucky Derby in years.  Will likely be the favorite in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3.

  • #3 Lookin at Lucky

Classy son of Smart Strike (aren’t they all?) who overcame a trip from hell to win the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park.  Oaklawn has been the launching point of numerous 3-year-olds in recent seasons, including Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2008.  Baffert’s decision to ship the colt east to get a true dirt prep race was a sure sign of confidence, and Lucky delivered on that gamble.  This colt seems to have all the tools to be a Derby winner and more.  Up next could be the Arkansas Derby on 4/10 at Oaklawn.

  • #4 Awesome Act

Impressive looking son of Awesome Again has a potential showdown brewing with fellow top contender Eskendereya in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3.  The Gotham winner trained overseas in England for much of his career and was publicly dismissed by yours truly prior to his North American debut victory.  I learned my lesson.  Hopefully anyone else that thought like me has also learned.  He’ll be up against it facing Esky and the Wood field, but this colt passes the eye test for sure and could still wind up being the best of the bunch.  He’s my 2nd favorite horse on this list (behind my obvious super-fave).  If Odysseus is my Curlin, I guess that makes Awesome Act my Hard Spun.

How awesome is Awesome Act?  Well, he’s awesome – there’s no doubt of that, but nothing can be as awesome as this:

As awesome as Awesome Act and the others are, they will never be as awesome as this.

  • #5 Ice Box

Win a Grade 1 prep race AND show that you can come off the pace doing so?  Say hello to the top 5 Ice Box.  It’s noteworthy that he was crushed by Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth, but he never really got a chance to get uncorked in that race.  If the Derby winds up with anywhere near as much speed as it looks thus far, this guy would have to be considered a player on pace alone.  He’s got one other thing working in his corner as well; trainer Nick Zito.

  • #6 Discreetly Mine

Risen star winner might be a forgotten horse by some.  He knocked off Tempted to Tapit, Drosselmeyer, and Ron the Greek in that Risen Star victory, 3 horses I consider to be decent opponents.  I continue to question whether this horse will actually want to go 10 furlongs come the first Saturday in May, but if he can, and if he can relax quite a bit, he’d suddenly be a lot more interesting.  Likely headed to the Arkansas Derby on 4/10.

  • #7 Conveyance

Someone has to get our “Rodney Dangerfield award” this week, and though he doesn’t technically fall in our rankings, he’s as good a candidate as any to nominate for getting no respect.  Of course he’s also unbeaten, which means he’s an honorary recipient of our weekly Cris Carter award for being an “all he does is win horse races” type of runner.  Baffert is reportedly keeping him on target for the Sunland Park Derby this weekend.  You might remember that race from last year thanks to a little horse named Mine That Bird.

  • #8 Sidney’s Candy

I continue to question whether this horse can get the distance – especially if seriously challenged – but at the end of the day the son of Candy Ride is the San Felipe winner and did defeat Caracortado and Interactif in that race (despite setting easy early fractions).  As I’ve said from the start, could still be any kind of horse when all is said and done.  We’ll find out more in the Santa Anita Derby on 4/3.

  • #9 Interactif

While I loved this colt’s move in the San Felipe when he came charging for Sidney’s Candy late in the race, I’m still not certain this is a legitimate Kentucky Derby horse.  So far he’s proven over turf and synthetics, and usually that bodes well for a horse’s prospects at also being versatile enough to run strongly on dirt, but wouldn’t you rather know that going into the first Saturday in May?  Stays on the list for now, but like the others has serious questions to be answered.

  • #10 Noble’s Promise

I toyed with ranking Schoolyard Dreams, Pleasant Prince, or even Caracortado here, but ultimately thought it was Noble’s Promise who deserved the ranking based on merit.  I’m troubled that the horse has a knack for finishing just behind the winners, but it’s important to note he was just a head behind the highly regarded ‘Lucky in the Rebel and just a 1/2 length behind Vale of York in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  Likely pointing to the Arkansas Derby on 4/10.

Honorable Mention:

The list of other horses we’re keeping our eye on is nearly unending, but some noteworthy names we haven’t given up on yet and would not be surprised to see move forward again would include (in no particular order):

  • Connemara
  • Schoolyard Dreams
  • Pleasant Prince
  • Dublin
  • Super Saver
  • Rule
  • Drosselmeyer
  • Jackson Bend
  • Tempted to Tapit
  • Caracortado

Up next are the Lane’s End, the Louisiana Derby, and the Sunland Derby.  Check back later in the week for coverage and selections for each race.  Until then, may the horse be with you.


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Categories : Awesome Act, Conveyance, Discreetly Mine, Eskendereya, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Interactif, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky, Noble's Promise, Odysseus, Sidney's Candy

Kentucky Derby Rankings – Third Times a Charm

14 03 2010

Odysseus (#7) and the field for the Tampa Bay Derby pass the stands on Saturday 3/13. Photo by Natalie Keller Reinert: http://retiredracehorseblog.wordpress.com/

Our third edition of the Derby watch list and the first time I think we may have definitively found our horse for the first Saturday in May.  The past weekend saw the validation of two runners on our previous Kentucky Derby watch list that were absent from many others.  My personal favorite and then #2 ranked horse Odysseus turned in an against-all-odds photo finish victory against Schoolyard Dreams in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby.

Would you believe that even the DRF Derby Watch List that came with the Saturday (3/13) edition of the Form didn’t have Odysseus listed in their top 20 horses?  Big mistake.  Granted, he had no graded stakes earnings at the time, but they had to know he was a player for the Tampa Bay Derby.  Hopefully he gets some more respect this time around.

For all those who still don’t believe that Odysseus got there in the photo finish for the Tampa Bay Derby, check out this picture for definitive proof.

Our previous #10 horse, Sidney’s Candy also triumphed over such contenders as Interactif, American Lion, Dave in Dixie and Caracortado in the Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita.  Nice going Sidney! Way to reward my faith in you as one of the 3-year-olds to keep an eye on.

Everybody had Lookin at Lucky in the Grade 3 Rebel at Oaklawn, so that one comes as no surprise.  Although the performance itself was as impressive as they come.  This horse looks like the real deal to me.

So, in case you missed the action (what were you, living under a rock???), there’s a quick recap.  Without further adieu, here’s our updated top 10 Kentucky Derby rankings as of 3/14/2010.

  • #1 Odysseus

It’s time to make the bold move and place my boy squarely in the top spot.  Has he proved himself better than Lookin at Lucky or Eskendereya?  Absolutely not.  But this colt has heart and tremendous upside, and he reaffirmed everything I thought about him with that gutsy victory in the Tampa Bay Derby this weekend.  Everyone knows I’m a sucker for a good chestnut, and I’ve made no attempt to hide my affection for this colt ever since I first laid eyes on him back in mid-February. He’s my Derby horse. I know he’s green as can be in the stretch and looked like he lost interest at times in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I remember another chestnut named Curlin who looked green in the stretch at this point in his career as well.  I’m not saying he’s Curlin by any stretch of the imagination, but then again I don’t think I’ve seen the likes of Street Sense or Hard Spun in this crop either, so he doesn’t have to be Curlin.  Being Odysseus will suit him just fine.  Up next might be the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3.  Go get ‘em, Big Red horse!

  • #2 Lookin at Lucky

Baffert trained colt didn’t just come east and pass the dirt test, he overcame a trip from hell in the process to win a thrilling edition of the Grade 3 Rebel at Oaklawn Park.  Oaklawn has been the launching point of numerous 3-year-olds in recent seasons, including Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2008.  Baffert’s decision to ship the colt east to get a true dirt prep race under him before the Kentucky Derby was a sure sign of confidence, and Lucky delivered on that good faith gamble.  This colt seems to have all the tools to be a Derby winner and more.  Let’s just hope we haven’t seen the best of him yet.

  • #3 Eskendereya

Gets the Rodney Dangerfield treatment on this update, dropping two spots from the top of the list in our last update.  It’s through no fault of his own and certainly should not be interpreted as a sign of decreased confidence in the colt’s ability.  It’s just that I’ve hitched my wagons to Odysseus and thought Lucky may have won the most improbable prep race of the season. There’s no shame in being #3.  I’d still cover this guy as a win threat if the Kentucky Derby were tomorrow.  The son of Giant’s Causeway justly rests on the top of many such watch lists, and you’ll hear no complaint from me with that ranking.  Likely pointing to the Florida Derby.

  • #4 Awesome Act

Another horse that, like Odysseus last week, you won’t see ranked as aggressively on most Derby watch lists.  He looked dominating in the Gotham, even if that wasn’t the toughest prep race we’ve ever seen.  I won’t forgive myself all Triple Crown season for having publicly doubted this horse prior to that Gotham performance, and the impression he made on me was strong enough that I’ll continue to mention him as being my 2nd favorite horse on this list.  I think he’s seriously underrated by folks that are discounting that Gotham victory. If he shows up in the Wood Memorial, it could pit my 2 favorite 3-year-olds against one another.

  • #5 Rule

The horse that has bounced up and down the list all season, looking for some place to fit in.  I guess that’s kid of like a euphemism for his place in Todd Pletcher’s barn.  Eskendereya has got to be the top dog that rules the roost, but it was quoted that Pletcher was looking for a Grade 1 immediately following his commanding victory in the Sam F. Davis.  With Eskendereya possibly headed to the Florida Derby, that could mean Rule comes north and helps fill out a Wood Memorial field that could wind up extremely contentious.

  • #6 Discreetly Mine

Risen star winner might be a forgotten horse by some.  He knocked off Tempted to Tapit, Drosselmeyer, and Ron the Greek in that Risen Star victory, 3 horses I consider to be decent opponents.  I continue to question whether this horse will actually want to go 10 furlongs come the first Saturday in May, but if he can, he could offer some value on the tote board.  I’d also prefer to see him relax a bit early on.

  • #7 Conveyance

With the defeat of Caracortado in the San Felipe this weekend, Conveyance is the last of my infamous Cris Carter types that I’m so fond of.  All he does is win horse races, and he came east and won a race on the dirt, so we can’t hold that against him.  He may not be taking as glamorous a road to the Kentucky Derby as anyone else, and there are questions surrounding whether the son of Indian Charlie will get the distance of the Kentucky Derby, but he gives Baffert some options as the major Grade 1 preps start to appear on the horizon.

  • #8 Sidney’s Candy

I’ve said all along that this could be “any kind of horse.”  The son of Candy Ride got away with some soft fractions in the San Felipe and made a field of big named contenders pay for that mistake this past weekend.  We’ll hear distance questions with this horse as well until they are definitively answered (Candy Rides not being known to be classic distance horses), but keep in mind that there’s an exception to every rule.  Certainly can’t knock the horse for winning.

  • #9 Interactif

The biggest mover on the list who did not run a winning race last out.  The son of Broken View gave Todd Pletcher and company another serious Derby contender with a very impressive finish in the San Felipe behind Sidney’s Candy.  Versatile runner is effective on all dirt, turf, and synthetics.  He  made up at least two lengths on Sidney’s Candy in the stretch and lept of the screen for those viewing the race as one to keep an eye on.

  • #10 Noble’s Promise

Another non-winner who joins the list for the first time today.  Finish just a head behind Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel at Oaklawn.  This is a classy horse who has probably been under appreciated throughout the prep season thus far.  As a 2-year-old he won the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, and finished just a 1/2 length behind Vale of York and Lookin at Lucky in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita.  Trainer Ken McPeek and jockey Robby Albarado teamed with the son of Cuvee for the Rebel, but everyone from Martinez to Bejarano to Mena to Desormeaux has been aboard before.  I thought he ran a great race, and if not for an extremely valiant effort by Lookin at Lucky, we’d be looking at the Rebel winner here. For that alone he deserves consideration for a top 10 list.

Others to watch:

We continue to track a number of colts who did not make the top 10 list.  Some notable horses include Connemara, Caracortado, Super Saver (ye’s, he’s on my honorable mention list now as I thought he looked good despite needing a race), Schoolyard Dreams, Jackson Bend, Dave in Dixie, Buddy’s Saint, Drosselmeyer, and Ron the Greek.  Of course there are others, and the list changes with each passing moment.

Hard to believe it, but next weekend is already Florida Derby time.  We’ve also got the Swale lined up at well. Check back later in the week for updates on the major racing action ahead.


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Categories : Awesome Act, Eskendereya, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky

Derby Rankings: Hot Shots! Part Deux

9 03 2010

With less than 2 months to go before the famed “run for the roses” in the 2010 Kentucky Derby, it’s time to once again put pen to paper in what figures to be another futile attempt to make some sense of the contenders we’ve seen thus far.  The weekend past was a tale of two emotions: “Twas the best of times, twas the worst of times.”  We watched the emergence of a star-in-the-making in Awesome Act’s powerful Gotham performance.  Then we watched in disbelief as Blind Luck failed to catch Crisp at the wire in the Santa Anita Oaks, despite running her heart out in the stretch.

The defeat of Blind Luck means that I had to drop her off my Derby rankings list, especially since I only go 10 deep in the actual rankings.  I still think she’s as good as the top 10 colts around, and would expect a rebound next time out.  Real estate, however, becomes precious with so little time ahead.  The loss all but assures that if she travels to Churchill Downs, it will be to run in the Oaks rather than the Derby.  Personally, I’ll be holding out hope that she throttles the Oaks field and then points for the Preakness or Belmont.  A guy can wish, can’t he?

As for Awesome Act’s performance, let’s just say that heading into post he looked like a million bucks. I had advised playing against him in our selections for the Gotham that morning, but once anyone got a look at him in the post parade, it’s hard to imagine they didn’t have a fairly good idea of what was about to happen.  I wound up posting on Twitter that “if he runs as good as he looks, the Gotham might be over already.”

Sure enough, it was.

The weekend ahead figures to be equally as compelling.  The San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby, and the Rebel await.  Of course, the most important “prep” races happening this weekend aren’t likely to involve 3-year-olds.  The return of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra in the New Orleans Ladies and that of 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic champion Zenyatta in the Santa Margarita will be the biggest shows in town, and rightly so.  And just in time to start breaking out the grills and go exploring this vast expanse we’ve not seen for many months, formerly buried in snow, that locals refer to as “outside.”

Yes, there’s much to be excited about this time of year.  With that in mind, let’s take a look at the updated rankings of the contenders for the 2010 Kentucky Derby.

1. Eskendereya

No change at the top spot.  Todd Pletcher’s  son of Giant’s Causeway catapulted to the top of many Derby watch lists after his dominating performance in the Fountain of Youth.  Up next will be the Florida Derby.  At first I didn’t think I’d keep him on top for long, but now it’s starting to seem like it will take a pretty big performance in one of the Grade 1 preps to knock him from this position.  I’ve warmed to him.  He’s a legitimate #1 on such lists based on what we’ve seen from the crop overall.

2. Odysseus

A wise man once told me to always remember the horse you rode in on.  All kidding aside, I’m typically loyal to a fault, and this may well be another fait accompli for yours truly.  There was something Curlin-esque about this colt when I first saw him in a replay against allowance runners at Tampa Bay.  On the surface, he’s done nothing that warrants this aggressive a ranking, having not earned a single dollar of the all-important graded stakes money he’ll need to secure a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby on May 1st.  That being said, he’s slated to take on Super Saver and others in the Tampa Bay Derby.  If he’s anywhere near the horse I think he is, we’ll see it this weekend.  I’m trusting my gut on this one.  I think this is a race horse here, and a pretty darn good one at that.

3.  Lookin at Lucky

If he had stayed in California and not tried the dirt in any of his prep races, I was ready to keep ‘Lucky out of my top 3 positions all season long.  Now that Bob Baffert seems committed to having Lucky try the dirt in the Rebel, I’m interpreting the decision as a confident, bold move by a trainer who thinks he may have something special.  I applaud the decision by Baffert.  The synthetic-to-dirt angle was huge for several runners prepping for the Derby last season, and if not for the freak injury to I Want Revenge, may have been one of the primary story lines about last year’s Derby winner.  Ironically, in a round about way and due to his initial races at Woodbine, the synthetic-to-dirt angle did ultimately factor into the victory of 50/1 longshot Mine That Bird.  Many people that I trust insist this is a special horse.  If he wins big on the dirt in the Rebel against what figures to be a salty field, Eskendereya could have some company at the top of the list.  Also note that ‘Lucky will be wearing a hood for the first time as Baffert tries the blinkers-on approach.

4. Awesome Act

I struggled with where to properly rank the overnight sensation that has invaded our shores from across the pond.  Looked sensational prior to the Gotham and then ran like a horse that meant serious business.  Was the Gotham the toughest race we’ve ever seen?  Absolutely not, and there’s no question he’ll get tested by better horses in his next starts, but the point I’m focusing on his how “much the best” he was.  This guy is a legitimate Derby contender, and he’s got a jockey in Julien Leparoux that you just knew was going to wind up on a big time contender sooner or later.  Full disclosure?  Though I advocated playing against him in the Gotham, he’s probably my 2nd favorite on this list behind Odysseus.

5. Caracortado

I keep thinking of former Eagles and Vikings wide receiver Cris Carter whenever I think of this horse.  “All he does is win horse races.” Now that Lookin at Lucky has shipped east to Arkansas for the Rebel, “Scarface” finds himself the top dog in California at the moment.  I expected him to challenge Lucky if he had remained in California, and it looks like he should have a much easier time now if they chose to keep him local.  It’ll be hard to rank a horse higher until we see them on dirt, but this guy is a proven winner and figures to remain so for the foreseeable future.

If Cris Carter had been a thoroughbred, all he'd do is win horse races.

6. Rule

Probably the horse who suffers the most from the “what have you done for me lately?” syndrome that bloggers like me are self-described masters at.  Todd Pletcher’s run away winner of the Sam F. Davis will likely point to the Wood or the Florida Derby.  Considering Eskendereya is likely Florida Derby bound, my money would be on the Wood as his final destination.

7. Discreetly Mine

The most difficult of the ubiquitous Pletcher clan to put a finger on.  Folks either love him or hate him.  I think he beat 3 quality horses in Ron the Greek, Tempted to Tapit, and Drosselmeyer in the Risen Star.  Up next is likely the Louisiana Derby.  I’m still not sure if he’ll want 10 furlongs, or if he’ll be able to rate effectively, but if he answers positively to both of those questions he’s certainly talented enough to be a factor in the Derby.  In keeping with the theme of discretion in this horse’s name, I’ll confide that I sneakily swapped positions with Rule and Discreetly Mine since our initial rankings were published.

8. Dublin

Sort of an odd addition to the list considering he didn’t race this past weekend and was defeated in his most recent start.  Why the vertical move up my list then?  I toyed with ranking the 1st and 2nd place finishers of the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park in this spot.  The winner, Conveyance, does not appear to be pointing to any local races though, while the place horse, Dublin, will now get to run into yet another Bob Baffert monster in Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel.  I thought Dublin might’ve been the best horse in the Southwest, both before and after the race was run.  Could give Lucky some fits in the Rebel.

9. Conveyance

Another of the Cris Carter type runners that simply goes out and wins races.  The undefeated son Indian Charlie opened his career out west with victories that included the Grade 3 San Rafael on January 16.  The victory in the Southwest at Oaklawn proved he could handle the conventional dirt.  Isn’t that the knock we horseplayers always use on west coast horses until they come east?  Okay, so now that he’s bested that challenge, what next?  Well, thanks to Baffert sending Lookin at Lucky to Oaklawn for the Rebel, Conveyance has seemingly been officially relegated to “plan B” status.  He’ll be headed to the Sunland Park Derby for his next start if current indications prove true.

10.  Sidney’s Candy

I maintain that this could be any kind of horse.  The sensational winner of the San Vicente was at one point rumored to be considering the Gotham at Aqueduct.  Obviously that didn’t happen, and it appears the son of Candy Ride may be the best remaining challenger for Caracortado out of the California crop for the moment while Lucky visits the south.

Others to watch:

I’m keeping my eyes on several horses, including those we mentioned in our initial rankings like Dave in Dixie, Jackson Bend, Buddy’s Saint, Drosselmeyer, and Ron the Greek.  I guess you could add Alphie’s Bet to that list following his performance in the Sham.

One horse you may notice I haven’t mentioned yet is Super Saver.  I know many are extremely high on him and one might think that fresh off of the experience of publicly doubting Awesome Act I might be inclined to be accepting of such highly touted horses, but my thoughts remain that I need to see something for 2010 from this horse before I add him to the list.

Guess what?  He gets a chance to prove that to you and me this weekend, so the wait won’t be long.  It just so happens it’s my boy Odysseus he’s running against, and it goes without saying where my heart will be in that race.  Hopefully my wallet doesn’t follow with reckless abandon.


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Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail

Papa Clem bests Old Fashioned in thrilling Arkansas Derby victory

11 04 2009

Papa Clem out dueled Old Fashioned  in a stretch battle for the ages on Saturday in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park.  At times it appeared that Old Fashioned was fighting back and might find a way to get back in front for the win, but Papa Clem was not to be denied.  The win makes Papa Clem a fast rising contender for the 2009 Kentucky Derby 3 Saturdays from now at Churchill Downs. 

Results Chart

The son of Smart Strike (who also sired Curlin) finished the 1 1/8 mile Arkansas Derby in 1:49.01 and will now ship to Churchill Downs in preparation for the 2009 Kentucky Derby.   Ever since making a rather dashing appearance in the post parade of the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita in early February, the colt has been flying just below the radar compared to some of the more highly regarded 3-year-olds in the nation.  If Old Fashioned was a consensus top 10 contender for the Kentucky Derby, than clearly Papa Clem, and his new found ability to relax, rate, and pounce are worthy of that same status now.

Old Fashioned was out in front early, setting quick opening fractions of  :22.65 and :44.19.  Ziegfeld chased the early pace in 2nd before being suddenly pulled up after the opening 3/4 of a mile.  Papa Clem was surprisingly held back in 5th position during the early running, patiently waiting for the right opportunity to make his move.   The decision to rate Papa Clem worked brilliantly as he struck the front as the field turned for home, setting off a stretch run that will go down as one of the more thrilling in Arkansas Derby history.

Longshot Summer Bird, who made a magnificent post parade appearance as a striking chestnut, ran well late to finish in third at odds of 26/1.   My beloved Win Willy, despite getting solid early fractions to run at, was never able to materialize a real threat, but did manage to finish 4th, beaten by 3 1/4 lengths.  It remains to be seen if they’ll still send him to the Derby.  Technically he’s got more earnings than Dunkirk and though he’s easy to miss in the replay video, his running line does denote he made a mild rally.  He certainly didn’t disgrace himself, although I was expecting better when I saw the early splits. 

I’ll be diligently working on updated power rankings for the Kentucky Derby, and needless to say Papa Clem will be a fast riser when they are released tomorrow.  Old Fashioned is likely still bound for the Kentucky Derby as well, and if they could ever get this horse to slow it down a bit, he might be a force to be reckoned with.   His two defeats have not been by much.   He sort of reminds me of Hard Spun back in 2007.  I thought the both of them looked like tremendously gutsy competitors in the stretch and think the Derby would only be strengthened by the entry of each runner on the first Saturday in May.

With the Arkansas Derby in the books, the major Derby preps are now over.  We’ve still got three weeks to ponder and question and will now begin paying close attention to the posted morning workouts for the contenders. 

Hats off to trainer Gary Sttute and jockey Rafael Bejarano for a magnificent job with Papa Clem this Saturday.  That stretch duel was exactly what we needed on a nationally televised broadcast.  Hopefully some folks stumbled upon our sport and liked what they saw.  I know I did from where I sat…then jumped…then screamed – in my living room.  Thanks to Papa Clem and Old Fashioned for doing their part to help Take Back Saturday.  Now let’s begin to look forward to what appears to be a very contentious 2009 Kentucky Derby.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Papa Clem

Quality Road, I Want Revenge top Derby rankings

5 04 2009

 

While the past week didn’t produce any shocking upsets or long prices in the major Derby preps, it was arguably the most important of the entire campaign.  It now appears that The Pamplemousse will be off the Kentucky Derby trail.  The impact of this blow was softened somewhat by a dominating performance from I Want Revenge in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, proving that he is a legitimate Derby threat (and possibly more).   Everyone is furiously adjusting their rankings taking into account the recent changes as all of the roads to the Derby begin to converge.  

We’re getting down to H-hour, folks.  You can feel it in the air.  I even cut my lawn this weekend for the first time this Spring.  I’m a bit upset that we’ve lost The Pamplemousse, as he was one of my favorites, but I’m hopeful that  a horse like Dunkirk will now find a way to squeeze into the field.  He’ll make it a more interesting race if he does.   With a month to go, here’s how I rank ‘em.  

 

  • #1 Quality Road  - Hard not to give him the slight edge by virtue of his brilliant wins in the Florida Derby (G1) and the Fountain of Youth (G2), but it was not an easy decision.   His sire, Elusive Quality, also gave us Smarty Jones a few years back, and  we all know how that turned out.  The biggest question he will face is whether the track at Gulfstream Park was favoring his speedy style.  With the defection of The Pamplemousse the likely pace outlook has changed.  I think it will take  a horse who is somewhat forwardly placed to win it now, and Quality Road should be right there.  A sensational colt who could be our best Triple Crown threat.

 

  • #2 I Want Revenge-  Feel you could rank the top three runners as 1, 1A, and 1B.   I Want Revenge was just absolutely dominating in winning the Wood.  He had no business winning that race, and he didn’t even have to win it.  The fact that he did so makes it a mind blowing performance – off the Richter scale impressive.  It’s exciting to see jockey Joe Talamo have his chance on a big named 3-year-old.  Looks like a force to be reckoned with.

 

  • #3 Friesan Fire – Drops a bit, though not by anything he has done.  It’s just that as impressive as he looked winning the Louisiana Derby (G2), Quality Road and I Want Revenge have looked even better. Larry Jones is giving the colt a long break before the Triple Crown campaign begins, and he’ll go into the Derby on 6 weeks rest.  I know some folks are questioning that, but I would not question anything Jones does with 3-year-olds as for my money he’s the best in the business with them.   I would not forget about this guy come the first Saturday in May.  He threw a sharp bullet work just before his performance in the Louisiana Derby (G2).  Pay attention to how he works leading up to the big day.

 

  • #4 Pioneer of the Nile - Moves to the front of the California division by virtue of his victory in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) as much as the defection of The Pamplemousse from the Derby trail.   Many think he’s bred for turf/synthetics, but he’s a fighter that finds a way to win.  The obvious challenge in predicting his Derby potential is that we’ve yet to see him run on true dirt and won’t until the first Saturday in May.  For what it’s worth, the colt is currently on top of our 3-year-old colt standings over at the TBA.

 

  • #5 Dunkirk – Still has to draw into the field, but if he does he has to be given a chance.  The only horse to have bested him thus far is Quality Road, so if that one is a serious contender than Dunkirk must be as well.   I’d prefer to see him pack on a little muscle before the Derby, but this guy still has a world of upside potential.   Didn’t look like he enjoyed his hard effort in the Florida Derby (G1), but is bred to go the distance.  I suspect he’ll be the “wiseguy” horse going into the Derby.  With the loss of The Pamplemousse and the wins by Musket Man and I Want Revenge last weekend, he just might make it into the field.  It’ll be close. 

 

  • #6 Old Fashioned – Has a chance to redeem himself in the Arkansas Derby next week.  At one point this guy was the favorite for the Derby.   He let one horse get passed him in the stretch of the Rebel  (G2) and then came crashing to earth.  Clearly he is option  B now behind Friesan Fire for Larry Jones, but this colt could still make some noise before all is said and done.

 

  • #7 Desert Party – I felt that this was the right spot for one of the two Godolphin runners from Dubai (Regal Ransom, winner of the G2 UAE Derby, being the other).  You could rank whichever one you like the most here.  My feeling was that Desert Party would get a chance to prove the UAE Derby effort a fluke and turn the tables on Regal Ransom.  There doesn’t seem to be much separating these two.  This guy’s stock will rise or fall depending on how he looks once arriving in Kentucky. 

 

  • #8 Win Willy – I’ve been on this guy’s bandwagon since his run in the Rebel (G2), and will likely remain on board for the ride as far as he takes us.   I was blown away by his powerful move in the Rebel.  If he defeats Old Fashioned again in the Arkansas Derby, than he’ll prove he’s a  legit contender.   His chances in the Derby will likely come down to the pace setup and what gate he draws as he seems to be a closer. 

 

  • #9 Chocolate Candy - Ran well in the Santa Anita Derby but could not get past Pioneer of the Nile.   He’s another who it will be hard to gauge on true dirt until we see some strong workouts. 

 

  • #10 Musket Man – Not sure how this guy will stack up against the big boys as he’s been facing weaker competition, but he is a horse who knows how to find the winner’s circle.  A $15,000 purchase at the September 2007 Keeneland sale, he continues to move forward with each performance.  Illinois Derby win gives him victories at 4 tracks now in just 6 lifetime starts.  That’s got to count for something and suggests he’ll ship well to Kentucky. 

 

Other horses to keep an eye on include:  Papa Clem, Theregoesjojo, Regal Ransom, and Mafaaz.  Up next this weekend are the Arkansas Derby (G2) and the Blue Grass (G1).


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Friesan Fire, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pioneer of the Nile, Quality Road, The Pamplemousse

Quality Road deserves top ranking

29 03 2009

A horse, a horse, my kingdom for a horse!

Now that Quality Road has dispatched the heavily hyped Dunkirk, just where does the son of Elusive Quality belong in the rankings for the 2009 Kentucky Derby?  All the way at the top, if you ask me.  His gutsy performance to hold off the late charging Dunkirk in the stretch at Gulfstream Park has convinced me that this lightly raced colt will be a force to be reckoned with come the first Saturday in May. 

Quality Road finds another gear to hold off Dunkirk in the Florida Derby

Ranking the Derby contenders gets incredibly complex, if you allow it to be so, due to the different paths being taken by the various runners.  Without an opportunity to size them up in face-to-face competition, one is left using the non-scientific approach of interjecting much speculation into their analysis.   Even taking things as straightforward as final time comparisons cannot be considered truly “apples to apples” due to the differences in surface at each of the race tracks in question. 

So what are we to make of Quality Road?  How does he match up with the other big guns?   At some point you have to draw the line between hype and actual production.  It’s a blurred line and one that is constantly changing as the situation unfolds.  For example, I believe that right now you have to rank Friesan Fire and Quality Road above the other contenders.  They’ve finished their preps, and they’ve both done so in impressive style.  Just around the corner, however, we’ll get our best read on the contenders coming from California (in the Santa Anita Derby), and New York (In the Wood Memorial), so things are not set in stone at the top of the list.  

Let’s start by looking at the top 5:

  • #1 Quality Road
  • #2 Friesan Fire
  • #3 The Pamplemousse
  • #4 Pioneer of the Nile
  • #5  I Want Revenge

I don’t think there’s much variety out there in terms of who belongs in the top 5.  The argument seems to be  where these top 5 should be ranked in relation to one another.  Disregard the #1 and #2 rankings for a moment on Friesan Fire and Quality Road.  Truth be told I consider them to be dual #1 contenders.  Both colts used similar stalk and pounce approaches to cash in on their recent victories.  Friesan Fire had to run down the speedy Papa Clem early on, and then hold off late charges from Terrain and Giant Oak.   Many of the bigger named horses who gave the Louisiana Derby such a deep feel prior to the race (Flying Pegasus, Patena, etc.) simply did not fire for whatever reason, leaving Friesan Fire with a relatively easy victory once he reeled in Papa Clem.   Quality Road didn’t face a field quite as deep on paper, but the big names in the Florida Derby did show up to run, as he had to hold off the late charging Dunkirk in the stretch (as well as Theregoesjojo who ran well enough for show) after dispensing with longshot pacesetter Casey’s on Call.  The end result?  I think you’ve got to have these guys one, two.  Where you rank them amongst each other is open for debate, but for now I”ll give the slight edge to Quality Road, and continue to be disappointed that I could not select the horse in the Road to the Roses challenge.

Moving down the list, the next great debate is what to do with the California runners and I Want Revenge.  Obviously if I Want Revenge had remained in California, this would be easier to do from a direct comparison standpoint.  However, that would have left us completely unable to determine how these colts might run once they tried the dirt for the first time.  With the defections of Papa Clem and I Want Revenge and the subsequent success they’ve enjoyed, their would seem to be much promise for the colts currently leading the California Division;  The Pamplemousse and Pioneer of the Nile.  Until Pioneer of the Nile shows he can rundown The Grapefruit (which he very well might do in the upcoming Santa Anita Derby), I”ll continue to rank The Pamplemousse ahead of him.  With The Pamplemousse firmly entrenched at 3rd, that makes things simple for me as I can look at the next two and say “well, Pioneer of the Nile defeated I Want Revenge head to head, so he stays on top for now.”  Of course, it’s never quite that easy, and the 113 Beyer figure that I Want Revenge earned on dirt in the Gotham suggests he’s just as capable as Quality Road.  Here’s one last factor in stacking them as I have above.  Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse will square off face to face next weekend at Santa Anita, so we’ll get a much clearer read on how they match up.  I Want Revenge will face a challenge from some of the lower ranked contenders, and could be vulnerable if a runner like Imperial Council rises to the occasion. 

  • #6 Old Fashioned
  • #7 Imperial Council
  • #8 Dunkirk
  • #9  Chocolate Candy
  • #10 Win Willy

Things get a bit fuzzier once you’re outside of the top 5.   The first challenge is what to do with the falling stock of both Dunkirk and Old Fashioned.   Dunkirk in particular might not have enough earnings to even qualify for the Kentucky Derby, which basically makes his position on a Derby rankings list rather moot.  Let’s say he does find a way to draw into the field though.  Then what would we make of him?   Is he not good enough to merit consideration among the bigger guns?   We  must remember that the Florida Derby was this horse’s third race of his career.  There’s still a tremendous amount of room for improvement, and judging from the way this guy is bred and the fact that he’s only allowed one horse to finish in front of him so far (and did not go down without a fight), I think you’ve got to keep him around.  Ditto for Old Fashioned.  Larry Jones is simply too good a horseman for this guy to fall too far.  I’m convinced Friesan Fire is his best shot, but Old Fashioned has enough class in him to get past many in this year’s crop.  

Then you’ve got some room for “buzz” horses and longshots.  Imperial Council fits into that former category and now becomes the hype horse in the rankings.  He’ll get a shot to turn the tables on I Want Revenge in the Wood, and if he were to do so he’d have to be considered a top 5 contender in the Derby at least.  I’m still holding out hope that this guy could be the best of the Empire Maker colts this year (with all due respect to Pioneer of the Nile). 

Chocolate Candy is now the “Rodney Dangerfield” of this list.  Each week it’s someone different who gets no respect.  In CC’s case, I believe it’s because folks simply haven’t had many good looks at him..  All that will change next weekend with the Santa Anita Derby.   He needs to finish in the top 3 to warrant this ranking, but stop for a moment and consider what a shakeup it would be if he found a way to prevail?   I’m not saying that will happen, but what would the fallout be if it did?  The only thing I can find that he hasn’t done is to win a race recently. 

Lastly, there’s my longshot Win Willy, who I’m going to hold onto in this rankings until someone else forces me to remove him.   I’ll clue you in on another thought going through my mind right now that relates to this guy.  The Pamplemousse is a speedy type.  Friesan Fire, Quality Road, and even Old Fashioned like to be just off the pace anywhere from 2nd to 4th in the early running.  We just might have enough early zip up front that things could open up for a closer like this.  It might take some additional lights out speed signed up on the front end, but I’m just saying that a horse that isn’t on most people’s lists despite running a very visually impressive race to defeat the then top ranked Old Fashioned still warrants some consideration.  

So there you have it, for the moment at least.  In the spirit of the increasingly annoying Capital One credit card commercials:  “Who’s on your list? “


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Categories : Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pioneer of the Nile, Quality Road, The Pamplemousse

Friesan Fire crushes the Louisiana Derby

14 03 2009

 

Going into Saturday’s prep races, many horseplayers (myself included) would’ve confidently listed Old Fashioned as trainer Larry Jones top colt on the Kentucky Derby trail.  After Friesan Fire’s impressive victory in the $600,000 Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, I’m not so certain that’s the case anymore.

Results Chart

The combination of Friesan Fire’s dominating victory in the Louisiana Derby and Old Fashioned’s stunning defeat in the Rebel, the Derby lists of horseplayers all over the country are going to get quite a shakeup.  Adding to the confusion will be that the highly regarded Rick Dutrow colt Patena and the Ralph Nicks trained Flying Pegasus did not run particularly impressive races in the Louisiana Derby.  They figure to be desperate for graded stakes earnings if they are still being pointed towards the Kentucky Derby this May.  If Patena doesn’t make it in for IEAH Stables, might that put more focus back on a runner like Stardom Bound?  It’s possible. 

Papa Clem, the California shipper who was rumored to have been a bit unhappy after arriving in Louisiana, was the early pace setter.  Friesan Fire tracked early on along with Flying Pegasus and Soul Warrior.  Just after the opening quarter in :24.12, jockey Gabriel Saez moved Friesan Fire into 2nd position behind Papa Clem.  Papa Clem continued to lead through the opening half-mile in :48.75, but Friesan Fire was already gaining ground with every step. 

Saez was patient with Friesan Fire, only firing to the lead once in the stretch.  Suddenly he was opening up an ever widening gap behind himself and the rapidly fading Papa Clem, who was coming back to the rest of the field.  It was never in doubt for a moment once the real running began. 

The winning time for Friesan Fire in the 1 1/16 Mile Louisiana Derby was 1:43.46.  Friesan Fire returned $6.40 to his supporters for the win.

The impressive performance boosts Friesan Fire’s lifetime earnings to over $600,000 with over $500,00 of that total in the form of all important graded stakes earnings.  He’s essentially a lock as of right now for the Kentucky Derby this May.   The win also allowed  the son of A.P. Indy (Seattle Slew) to complete the sweep of the LeComte (Grade 3) and the Risen Star (Grade 3) to go along with the Louisiana Derby.

If America is looking for a new Derby favorite….why not this guy?  He’s becoming the Chris Carter of the 3-year-old division.  All he does is win races.  And he’s improving.  Perhaps it’s high time he’s earned a respected position amongst the Derby contenders. 

Hats off to Larry Jones and Gabriel Saez.  If I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again – the most formidable human connection battery in the U.S. when it comes to 3-year-old  stakes races.  I was lucky enough to have each of them in the Road to the Roses fantasy challenge. 

Will we see Friesan Fire again before the Kentucky Derby?  I’m not so sure.  Jones is a patient fellow and may prefer to take his time now that his entry is assured.  I’d expect him to ship well in advance of the Derby to get some works in over the track at Churchill.  He trained extremely well at Fair Grounds prior to his recent victories.  If  he shows signs of taking to the Churchill dirt, he will warrant serious attention in the Derby. 

It’s also worth noting that while Papa Clem was fading late, he did manage to hold on for place, which means that the two recent California shippers that had recent experience against Pioneer of the Nile have run 1, 2 in the Gotham and the Louisiana Derby, respectively.


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Categories : Fair Grounds, Friesan Fire, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail

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