Belmont State of Mind

6 06 2010

“I’m the new Sinatra and since I made it here I can make it anywhere.  Yeah they love me everywhere.”

Jasmine Villegas - who upset fans and horses alike with her god awful singing at Belmont on Saturday.

The above statement is contained in the opening lyrics of the Jay-Z/Alicia Keys hit “Empire State of Mind” – which in an ironic twist replaced the traditional singing of Frank Sinatra’s “New York, New York”  on Saturday prior to the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes.  With the original artists unable to attend, teen sensation Jasmine Villegas was called on  to offer her vocal skills to the crowd.  The result, at least from what we saw on the television broadcast, was an unmitigated disaster of epic proportions.

How bad was it?

The performance was so brutal that ABC actually cut away from the unfolding catastrophe in order to go to commercial break.  A merciful decision that no doubt spared the eyeballs of countless viewers from being jabbed with writing utensils or other blunt objects.  Upon returning to the coverage, it was suggested that the beached-whale-with-a-hernia sounding notes had actually upset Make Music for Me (rather ironic, given the horse’s name).

Look, I don’t mean to be too harsh (especially towards a 16-year-old) – as I’m all for trying new things in an effort to connect more with the next generation. It’s just that the performance by Villegas actually set a new standard of “bad” for me – replacing such cherished moments as William Hung’s initial American Idol audition and Roseanne Barr’s rendition of the National Anthem.  What I find absolutely unbelievable are the celebrity chasers out there calling the performance “brilliant”. Either those pieces were written ahead of time or it proves that some folks are so obsessed with celebs that no matter what they do it will be referred to as brilliant.

The sub par effort  by the “star” Villegas may have been a bad omen for the heavy favorite in the Belmont as well; Ice Box.   The son of Pulpit would never quite get unwound in the stretch, finishing completely off the board in 8th place.  Nick Zito mentioned that we “hadn’t seen the real Ice Box today” in post race interviews.  Indeed – just as we hadn’t heard the real “Empire State of Mind” either.  I’m sure the pedestrian opening half-mile fractions set by First Dude didn’t help the situation – and of course it’s always possible that Ice Box was still sorting out in his head whether Villegas effort qualified as music or whether NYRA had been sacrificing moose live over the PA system in some sort of shocking cult ritual.  In that sense, it’s understandable that he didn’t show up with his best stuff.

Villegas and Ice Box weren’t the only ones turning in crappy performances though.   If I’m going to be a harsh critic, it’s only fair that I do the same with my own selections.  I didn’t have the winner of the Belmont anywhere on my radar going into the race.  In fact, I had called Drosselmeyer a “money burner” in a conversation with a work buddy earlier in the week (in my defense, Drosselmeyer had lost as favorite in 4 of his 8 lifetime races coming into the Belmont, so the description seemed to fit for the moment).  He and Uptowncharlybrown were complete toss-outs for me that I expected would be overbet at the windows.  I gave them no chance.

Full Results Chart from Equibase

We had noted earlier in the week that the Belmont needed a hero. Thankfully, Drosselmeyer was not affected by the off-key tone and butchered notes.  The son of Distorted Humor sports German sounding nomenclature inspired by The Nutcracker (“Herr Drosselmeyer”), so perhaps we should not have been surprised?  It is the Teutons after all who celebrate the musical talents of David Hasselhoff and persist in keeping reruns of ALF culturally relevant.

None of that previous history mattered as Drosselmeyer entered the post parade.  He looked absolutely regal with his chestnut coat showing a fine glow and his ears perked up suggesting readiness for a top performance.  If I had spent just a few more moments focusing on the trouble he had encountered in the Risen Star, Louisiana Derby, and Dwyer Stakes (Grade 2′s all), perhaps I could’ve cashed in on his 13-1 goodness?

Instead, I was stuck ripping up my First Dude and Ice Box themed tickets.  In that sense, I seem to share the fate of Villegas and Ice Box – an utter failure on Belmont Saturday!

But wait – there’s more!!!

Did anyone out there actually get to witness the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap?  Probably not, considering it wasn’t televised live anywhere.  I’m thinking there may have been a ripple in space-time that has opened up a series of tangent universes out there – where every conceivable possibility for the race has played itself out.  We seem to exist in one of  those bubbles in which an improbable outcome took place.  Winchester, an off the charts longshot, somehow managed to upset a defending 2009 Eclipse Award winner in Gio Ponti to win his second race in a row – proving that yes, definitively, Winchester is a repeater.

I don’t know who dropped the ball on this one, but to have an entire crew from ABC/ESPN on location covering the Belmont, and then to pay absolutely no attention to a Grade 1 turf race featuring the return of the top U.S. turf horse from the previous year?

Epic fail – perhaps even more so than Villegas, Ice Box, or my own god awful selections.

So where does the weekend leave us?  Just as expected, really – with more questions than answers.   I don’t think we have a clear picture of the 3-year-old division even now.  I’d still lean towards Lucky as the overall leader – but Drosselmeyer and Fly Down have moved into the discussion by finishing 1, 2 in the Belmont.  I really thought my boy First Dude was in good shape after the opening half mile – and I’d suspect we’ll see some more of him this summer as well – provided the dude abides.

Hopefully though we’ve seen the last of sub-par musical performances aimed at gen-next…and equally awful handicapping selections.

Hats off to the connections of Drosselmeyer for their big Belmont victory.  I sure hope SOMEBODY out there managed to take down that Pick 4 for $167k!!!!


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Triple Crown

Odysseus and the Derby Mythica

19 02 2010

“[W]e have still not reached the end of our trials. One more labor lies in store—boundless, laden with danger, great and long, and I must brave it out from start to finish“

- Odysseus – The Odyssey (Book 23: The Great Rooted Bed)

It took Homer’s legendary hero Odysseus ten full years to return home to Ithaca following the Trojan War.  On Wednesday at Tampa Bay Downs, it took a promising 3-year-old colt of the same name only 1:44.37  to travel 8.5 furlongs while demolishing a field of Allowance runners in impressive fashion.   In the process, he may have given us our first glimpse at the 2010 Kentucky Derby winner.

So what do we have here?  A legitimate Derby contender or a “Trojan Horse”?  It was, after all, the cunning Odysseus who came up with the idea for the famed Trojan Horse ruse (after an unsuccessful attempt involving  a hastily constructed “large wooden rabbit”, of course).

Let your eyes do the judging.  The replay has not been uploaded yet to Youtube as of this writing, but it is available over at Tampa Bay Downs replay archive.  Just click on the date 2/17 and then select the 9th race.

http://www.tampabaydowns.com/DailyReplays.aspx

Additionally, the Equibase results chart is available here.

The two races that instantly crept into my mind when viewing this were the first time we saw Curlin in 2007, and Big Brown’s triumphant start to his 2008 campaign.  Remember how those horses just looked clearly the best?  Obviously the 15 length victory margin over horses of questionable quality should not be overstated, but he sure does look like he’s got “it”, whatever “it” is.  Of course, not only does he look magnificent on the track, evidently he also has what it takes under the hood. The famed Steve Haskin from Bloodhorse notes in his latest column that Odysseus has numerous Belmont Stakes winners and an English Triple Crown winner in his first 3 generations.

Only time (and a healthy dose of luck) will tell if he goes on to achieve the kind of glory he seems capable of.  The path to the Derby being literred with countless horses who displayed a flash of brilliance, only to wind up forgotten with the passage of time.  We all know painfully well that anything can and will happen on the road to the Derby.  It does appear, however,  that this is a horse you might want to start taking seriously, and is probably worth adding to the old horse watch list over the weekend so that you don’t miss him next time out.

My personal opinion?  I don’t think we’ll see him challenged until he faces the cream of the crop at the Grade 1 level.  All things being equal, he appears likely to blow right through the Grade 3 level, and probably the Grade 2 level if they chose to give him a run there.

In fact, not only do I think he’s a contender, but I’m officially jumping squarely on the bandwagon (and  busting out my trusty “jump to conclusions mat” for good measure).  He’s my Derby horse.   All the way to the top of the list.  There, I said it.

I guess that’s only fitting and proper considering the tagline for this blog is “the odyssey of a horse racing enthusiast and amateur handicapper.”

And to think, all along I thought it was Aspire I was going to have to hitch my wagons to from a nomenclature standpoint.

It’s not that I want to get too carried away with him, but by and large my gut feeling on this year’s crop is that it’s been largely unimpressive thus far.  Nobody had blown me away…at least not until Odysseus came along.   I think the world of many of this year’s horses, but none of them had left you with that “wow feeling” in the pit of your stomach.  I got that “wow” sensation watching this guy run.  Now I just have to hope he stays healthy and can live up to those expectations as a potential date with destiny approaches.

Given my lack of recent Derby success, it seems it would take a horse that invokes remembrances of epic heroes and mythical voyages to break the curse that the horse racing gods have placed upon me.  That may be what it takes to get one of my Kentucky Derby picks home.  It’s become one of those idiosyncrasies that I no longer try to fight.  I just accept it, put my head down, and come to the realization that to plow right through is the only option.  Suffice to say, I cannot pick a Derby winner to save my life.  Ironic (if not Socratically Ironic) given that I always seem to get the Preakness right, but for the life of me picking a Derby winner has been darn near impossible ever since Barbaro.

Let’s review quickly, if only for a lesson in handicapping ineptitude:

  • 2006:  I liked Barbaro and made him my top pick, but also gave out Bandini as a horse that had to be played.  I’m not sure if Bandini has even crossed the finish line yet, all these years later.
  • 2007:  Obviously I was all about Curlin, although Hard Spun was my 2nd choice.  The one horse I was taking a stand against wound up being Street Sense, whose brilliant rail move absolutely crushed the rest of the field.  To be honest, huddled around a small monitor without any sound at Pimlico that afternoon, I didn’t even realize that Curlin had fought on for 3rd.   Moot point, of course, as he never threatened for the win, but in the end we did get the last laugh in this act.
  • 2008: Deciding that Big Brown could not be played at 5/2 breaking from the 20 hole, despite clearly being the best horse in the race, I put my faith in Colonel John and anointed him as the selection.  What followed was perhaps the worst race from the Colonel in his entire career.
  • 2009:  A trifecta of Derby related tragedy and ineptitude, having made Quality Road my top choice several weeks out, only to see him injured and scratched from the race.  Without batting an eye, I settled on I Want Revenge, only to find out on Derby morning that he too was a no go.  Finally, I went with Friesan Fire, who wound up finishing 19th out of 20th.

Why do I bring the painful history denoted above up?  Because this is the year we break through.  I’ve consulted the Oracle of Delphi on the mater, and in a hypnotic trance she seemed to suggest something about “a wager on the hero brings gold to the chosen ones.”  Of course, she also cautioned me against invading Persia, but you know how Oracles can be.

This much I’m certain of: Odysseus is going to be the horse that gives me a shot to finally pull it off.

Overall, this weekend stands to tell us quite a bit about the rest of the crop, with no shortage of Derby prep races being run across the nation. I’m going with D’funnybone over Radiohead in the Hutcheson and Buddy’s Saint over Pulsion in the Fountain of Youth.  Nothing particularly surprising there. The Risen Star looks a bit more wide open to me, with Tempted to Tapit, Ron the Greek, Drosselmeyer, and Discreetly Mine all being possible win candidates.  I’m going to be playing Tempted to Tapit as my top choice, but it’s not a confident selection.   I guess I’ll take Dublin over Conveyance and Cool Bullet in the rescheduled Southwest Stakes, although again, no where near as confident with that pick as I am with D’funnybone in the Hutcheson or Buddy’s Saint in the Fountain of Youth.

The journey has begun, my friends! After this weekend I’ll start putting together a revolving top 10 list each week.  For now though, I’m very curious to know what your opinions on Odysseus may be.  Did we see a Derby contender on Wednesday, or is he a Trojan Horse that is being overhyped by folks like me?


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Tampa Bay Downs

Road to the Roses 2010

15 02 2010
It’s that time of year again, racing fans.  Next weekend, the first scoring races for the 2010 Road to the Roses fantasy challenge are set to kick off – which means you’d better get those stables filled out and registered now if you want to take part.  For racing fans, this is usually the most highly anticipated of fantasy contests on the year, generating quite a bit of buzz (including a Facebook group that boasts over 2900 “fans” – quite a feat considering only 380 folks on all of Facebook show up under a search for “horse racing” – meaning it must not be a popular interest that people have listed).
……………………..
Two leagues that I’m a part of would welcome your participation, if you haven’t registered already.  One is for the TBA group I proudly blog with.  The other is from our good friend Tencentcielo over on the TVG Community.  To get started, here’s the Brisnet PPs for Kentucky Derby Future Wagers Pool.

To access one of the leagues, just fill out your stable horses, jockeys, and trainers and then once you confirm your stable you’ll be asked if you wish to join an existing league.  Just type in the League ID and the Activation Code for the league as noted below.

Any user can create up to 3 free stables to participate in the contest.  The top overall prizes are always fairly sweet, including a trip to the Derby and a future wager.

  • TBA 2010
    • League ID: 3173203388
    • Activation Code: 2247553444
  • A Dime on the Ten
    • League ID: 2071312789
    • Activation Code: 1205335816

We’d certainly love to have more folks in those leagues to make things interesting, so give it a whirl and pass that information along to anyone you think may be interested.

For now, I think it’s safe to assume that volatility will be the order of the day.  To be sure, just a few day ago horses such as American Lion, Tiz Chrome, Lookin at Lucky, and UpTownCharlyBrown were receiving strong inclusion consideration.  I still think any of those can go on to be fine horses, but I sided against Lucky due to the synthetics question, and then passed on the Tiznows (which I KNOW will come back to haunt me) based on their most recent efforts.

Every year it seems like there’s more and more folks coming along who are first time players with some interest in getting involved in the challenge.  For them, I’ve included a breakdown of who I chose and why below.  Of course, it’s also for you more seasoned players, so that I can be reminded of my follies all season long.  A little humility is always good – especially for horseplayers.  Admittedly, I went with my heart on a few of these, but without further adieu, let’s get to the list, shall we?

Horses:

  • Buddy’s Saint – consensus top three Derby candidate, but questions about over who he’s faced are starting to be raised.  Has won going 9 furlongs on the dirt in the Grade 2 Remsen.  That counts for something.
  • Vale of York - my current #1 3-year-old colt in training.  Even though he’ll train overseas and may not run in any races that qualify for the challenge, I couldn’t leave him off the list.  He made an impression on me in the paddock for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and when I cashed on him at better than 30/1 a few moments later, suffice to say a soft spot grew in my heart for this son of Invincible Spirit.
  • Blind Luck - seems every year around this time I fall for a filly.  In 2008 it was Eight Belles and Pure Clan.  In 2009 it was Rachel Alexandra.  In all likelihood she will continue to point for the Kentucky Oaks rather than the Derby, but based on what we’ve seen so far, I think she deserves a place at the table based on potential alone.  She may be closer to Stardom Bound in terms of ceiling than Rachel Alexandra, but have we really seen any colts that would scare you away at this point?
  • Ron the Greek – I have to admit, I don’t think I gave this son of Full Mandate enough credit when he first won the Lecomte (G3) over Maximus Ruler.  He’d seem to need a pace in front of him for his prep and Derby chances, but so far that doesn’t seem to be something this crop is lacking.  In fact, so far Ron’s one of the few that looks authoritative coming from off the pace.  I would caution that Giacomo style dead closers don’t usually win the Derby, but in recent memory we do have Mine that Bird and Street Sense doing exactly that.  I’ll roll the dice.
  • William’s Kitten – Some folks may be deceived by the buzz surrounding this horse.  He’s speed figures don’t leap off the page, but if you appreciate a slow, steady, progression of races to build a foundation – the way trainers did in the not-so-long-ago, he begins to make a lot of sense.  Think on this, he’s run very well against Super Saver, Winslow Homer, Jackson Bend, and that 8th place finish in the BC Juvenile to Vale of York, Lookin at Lucky, and Noble’s Promise was better than you might think.  I think he’s a serious race horse.
  • Rule - probably the trendiest of my inclusions.  Pletcher has himself a horse with some speed in this son of Roman Ruler, and word is he’s headed for a Grade 1 next.  Considering how few opportunities one gets to score points in a Grade 1 during the contest, it’s nice to have a runner pointing for such a race.
  • Tempted to Tapit – Impressive 11 length winner last out took 4 starts to break his maiden and was beaten by another under consideration for this spot, Laus Deo.  Took the kind of explosive move forward last out that you want to see this time of year.  Still has many questions to answer though (distance, can he avoid a bounce, etc.).
  • Drosselmeyer – Another who took a significant step forward last out, and this time it was against winners for the first time, an accomplishment that suggests he’s got what it takes.  The son of Distorted Humor went 9 furlongs in 1:49 and 2 at the Allowance level on January 31st at Gulfstream Park; and he did it rating off the pace.  Looks like a very live contender to me.
  • Jackson Bend –   Took 4 consecutive ungraded stakes at Calder before finishing 2nd to Winslow Homer in the Holy Bull.  Could just be  a nondescript Calder horse, but there is something about him that I like, and that’s been amplified by the switch to the Nick Zito barn.
  • Setsuko - I’ll be honest, this horse was nowhere on my radar until TVG’s Matt Carothers mentioned him the other day.  Additionally Brad Free of the Daily Racing Form has mentioned this horse as one to keep an eye on.  He basically wasn’t anything until Richard Mandella put blinkers on him, and now he’s sort of a dark horse for the CA circuit.  Definitely a reach, but this was my final spot.

To fill out my stable, I selected Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher as my trainers, as each seems loaded this year with possibilities, and settled on Julien Leparoux and Garrett Gomez for my jockeys.  I know Go-Go burned me a bit last year by not accruing a ton of points, but he’s too consistently good a rider to avoid in my opinion.

So who scares me?   Well, it’s always dangerous to leave Lookin at Lucky off the list.  Same goes for runners like Eskendereya and Super Saver.  You know it pains me to leave the Tiznows off the list (American Lion and Tiz Chrome), but none of these horses has me worried that much.

The runners I’ll be losing sleep over not including are Laus Deo (nice looking Medaglia d’Oro colt), D’funnybone (who has really only turned in one bad race in the “synthetic Juvenile” last fall, and even then was a very good looking colt until about mid stretch), and any of the Afleet Alex offspring out there who look potentially promising.

The good news?  The first “supplemental draft” is slated for March 15 (with another coming on 4/12), so if I’ve whiffed on a Derby runner there will be two chances to make amends.

Speaking of which – I’ll go on record as saying I still don’t think we’ve seen a Derby winning caliber performance from any of these horses.  The whole thing is still wide open if someone wants to jump up and grab victory.

So what are you waiting for – download those past performances and get to handicapping!  It’s time to get serious about the 2010 Kentucky Derby prep races!

We’ll be back this weekend with previews of the Hutcheson, Risen Star, and Fountain of Youth.


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Categories : Fantasy Horse Racing, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail


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