Breeders’ Cup Classic Selections

5 11 2009

Finally – it’s Classic time.  The “race of the year” (although not necessarily for Horse of the Year, as evidenced by recent history) for an overall purse of $5 million.  Obviously the story of the race is the entry of the undefeated mare Zenyatta – one of the sports biggest stars in North America and a hometown hero that the masses will turn out to support in droves for her first try against the boys.

Last year we had another equally beloved North American horse coming in as the heavy favorite.  Of course I’m talking here of my beloved Curlin.  Despite a bold move as the field neared the top of the stretch that at first glance appeared to be trademarked, patented Curlin - he ultimately floundered through the final furlong and wound up finishing 4th, passed by two horses that had shipped in from Europe in both Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator. 

Will things be different this year?  It was supposed to be the “year of the filly” – but the Fighting Phils blew the World Series to the N.Y. Yankees last night.  Still, might that be a favorable omen for Zenyatta?  Think about it – if her biggest threats are coming from across the pond once again, then is it a good sign that the “Yankees” won?   We horseplayers are nothing if not superstitious, so it’s something to think about.

Speaking of which – I’d encourage ALL horseplayers to go to our TBA homepage right now and play along with our “BC Picks” feature.  Basically it’s just a google doc spreadsheet.  Contact Handride if you have any questions about how to enter your picks.  I see at least one regular reader (Mark Ripple) is already there – hopefully we’ll see more of you shortly. 

Since this post will also be featured until I return from the Breeders’ Cup Sunday evening, I’d also like to point out that I’ve updated the page entitled “2009 Breeders’ Cup” so that you can easily navigate to the selections/analysis for each of the BC races this weekend.  Basically it’s the old “2009 Triple Crown” page that used to be in the same spot – only that information has been moved down a few notches.  Just trying to keep things as easy as can be for the readers here.

Getting back to the Classic, the field sets up like this:

  1. Mine That Bird (12/1)
  2. Colonel John (12/1)
  3. Summer Bird (9/2)
  4. Zenyatta (5/2*)
  5. Twice Over (20/1)
  6. Richard’s Kid (12/1)
  7. Gio Ponti (12/1)
  8. Einstein (12/1)
  9. Girolamo (20/1)
  10.  Rip Van Winkle (7/2)
  11.  Regal Ransom (20/1)
  12.  Quality Road (12/1)
  13.  Awesome Gem (30/1)

“Slow Cheetah come, it’s so euphoric.  Looks like it’s on today…”  (“Slow Cheetah” being my pet name for Zenyatta)

MINE THAT BIRD – the 3-year-old “little gelding who could” that shocked the world with his stunning 50/1 upset in the Kentucky Derby back in May.  Sadly, that was the last time he found the winner’s circle, although he did come charging well late against Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness.  He just hasn’t seemed the same horse since then, and his relatively uninspiring effort over the Santa Anita Pro Ride in the Goodwood (Grade 1) last month does not leave me thinking he’s got much of a chance here.  He’s shocked us before – so keep that in mind before you toss him out, but as much as I like this gelding and his trainer, Chip Woolley Jr., I’m just not seeing it.

COLONEL JOHN was my original selection for the 2008 Kentucky Derby.  Since then I’ve had a bit of a tough love relationship with him.  He’s a Tiznow colt, and I’m nothing if not a Tiznow fan, so he’ll always hold a special place in my heart.  It just seems like whenever I expect big things from him, he struggles, and whenever I dismiss his chances, he runs huge.  He’s capable of running big here, but I’m going to consider others as more solid selections for win honors.  If my Colonel John conundrum continues, that might suggest he’s primed for his best performance.  For now, I’ll say he’s a contender and leave it at that. 

SUMMER BIRD might be the forgotten colt of the entire field.  This is likely due to his lack of previous racing experience over the synthetic surfaces.  The son of Birdstone did train over the Santa Anita Pro Ride before joining the barn of Trainer Tim Ice – a man who was beyond awesome to my entire family on Haskell day at Monmouth Park.  Since we got to meet Summer Bird that day, and since he was my wife’s Belmont pick, you best believe he’ll be on all my tickets.  Am I worried about the synthetics?  Nope, not at all – and my gut tells me this guy is one of the better North American horses in racing.  Case in point – immediately following the Haskell, our conversations with Ice revealed that he didn’t want to run into Rachel Alexandra ever again, but he’s confident enough again in his colt following his victories in the Travers and the Jockey Club Gold Cup that he now publicly states he wants another shot at her.  Not many folks would say such a thing – and Tim is a consummate gentlemen, so don’t mistake that for false bravado.  He’s sincere in everything he says, which tells me this colt is poised.  Big factor – and expect to see those odd s of 9/2 improve dramatically once the betting windows open up.

ZENYATTA - what’s left to say about my beloved “Slow Cheetah?”  The 50-foot woman…the undefeated super star who has been the poster girl for California racing for 2 seasons now.  This is her biggest moment, and while she’s facing boys for the first time and taking on a new distance as well, she’s simply one of the classiest animals I’ve had the pleasure of seeing.  If this is indeed her swan song (which recent discussions suggest it will not be), then it shall be with a watery eye that I bid her farewell.  My love affair with Zenyatta began the evening she broke her maiden in her debut in late 2007.  I had just decided to start posting picks online and experimenting with these peculiarities called “blogs.”  The rest, quite literally, is history.  I’m expecting her finest hour – and that’s exactly what it will likely take to prevail.  If this plays out the way she usually does things, expect a heart-stopping photo finish type of cliffhanger ending at the wire.  You KNOW she’ll be flying late. 

TWICE OVER is the sneakiest of the European invaders by virtue of being 20/1 on the morning line.  I’ll say this, given the fact that European shippers ran 1, 2 in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic, wouldn’t it make sense to at least take a flyer on a RIP VAN WINKLE/TWICE OVER exacta here?  We are, after all, talking about a horse that has won 3 straight overseas, including besting the filly Sariska in the Champion Stakes (Group 1).  He didn’t appear to run his best race when he tangled with RIP VAN WINKLE in the Eclipse Stakes back in July, but his running line denotes that he was “bumped’ in that race.  Further, he simply might be a better horse now than he was back then.  Very interesting and quite usable colt given the 20/1 value on the morning line.

RICHARD’S KID was the upset special for trainer Bob Baffert in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic in early September.  The son of Lemon Drop Kid shocked us all by beating EINSTEIN at 24/1, and then returned to run 3rd beaten only a length to COLONEL JOHN and Gitano Hernando.  In other words, he doesn’t appear to be a fluke, so you might want to keep him around on your tickets. 

GIO PONTI is probably the best North American turf horse at the moment.  So what’s he doing here rather than racing in the BC Turf?  I’m not entirely certain, although it would appear he does seem to favor the 10 furlong distance.  The son of Tale of the Cat did win here in the Sir Beaufort over the Pro Ride when that race came off the turf last December.  If you’re a believer that turf form translates well to the Pro Ride, then you shouldn’t have any doubts about his chances.  He has to be considered a player in here with a chance.

EINSTEIN is the hard trying son of Spend a Buck that has earned fans from all over the nation the past 3 years.  I’ll always remember the first time I saw him live on Preakness Day in 2007, when a spill caused him to toss jockey Robby Albarado just 2 races before Curlin’s date with destiny in the Preakness.  Ultimately we lost the colt Mending Fences that day, but since then Einstein has gone on to become one of the most versatile horses in all of racing.  His motto, if he could speak, would surely be something along the lines of “any surface, any track, any time.”  A rare Grade 1 winner on dirt, turf, and synthetics.  He’s run into some hard luck and close finishes this year, so it would be nice to see him fight his way back into the winner’s circle.  Ultimately I like him better as an underneath play here. 

GIROLAMO is the most lightly raced of the contenders, and a 3-year-old son of A. P. Indy.  He’s never been two turns before, but his pedigree suggests he’ll handle it.  For me the tougher question is figuring out where he might fit into the equation pace wise.  I’m guessing he’ll be right up there trying to go with Regal Ransom.  He’s definitely a nice colt that is on the improve and eligible to continue to move forwad, but he’ll be on a new surface, going two turns for the first time, and facing a level of competition he’s never seen before.  That might be asking just a tad too much here.

RIP VAN WINKLE is the main threat to ZENYATTA’s quest for glory here in the Classic.  The son of Galileo has been very sharp lately, taking both the Sussex Stakes and the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1 races both) in his last two efforts.  Prior to that he was only 1 length behind Sea the Stars in the Eclipse Stakes (and, notably, 4 1/2 lengths in front of Conduit – whom I just made top selection in the BC Turf….hmmmmm).  In fact, he lost 3 straight to Sea the Stars, but never finished worse than 4th and was never further than 2 1/2 lengths from the colt considered by many to be among the best they have ever seen in Europe.  Trainer Aidan O’Brien and jockey Johnny Murtagh will team up once again here and look to steal the victory from the hometown hero.  The obvious question will be how he handles the synthetics, and as always one must take a bit of a leap of faith in backing a runner like this, but he does look tough to deal with here.  In fact, he looks tougher than anything ZENYATTA has ever seen.  As much as it pains me to do it, he’s going to be the top pick. Don’t “sleep” on this guy (lame, I know, but I couldn’t resist).

REGAL RANSOM is a horse I was admittedly quite enamored with during the Triple Crown season earlier this year.  Things didn’t quite work out for him, as he finished 8th over the Churchill slop on Derby day, but he did return to wire the field in the Super Derby last out (Grade 2).  He seems to be a legit pace factor here, and that could have him in a favorable position if he were to get loose on the lead.  Of course, as mentioned earlier, GIRALOMO appears to want to have something to say about that, and so might QUALITY ROAD, so it’s not enough to make me think upset here.  Word is that he has been working extremely well here, so definitely think about using him underneath on the exotics.

QUALITY ROAD was once my top Derby selection for 2009.  This means that my top Derby picks for the last 2 years are now here in this race.  The speedy son of Elusive Quality has been unable to catch SUMMER BIRD in his last two starts over wet surfaces in New York.  I’d expect him to be on the muscle early on and looking to press REGAL RANSOM should that one try to waltz away with things untested early on.  It’s hard for me to think he’ll win this, but he can still be a factor.  One angle to keep in mind is that this is a colt who had some issues with his feet earlier in the year, and quite a few horses with similar problems have really taken to the softer synthetic surfaces. 

AWESOME GEM was the third place finisher in the 2007 Classic behind Curlin and Hard Spun. Last year he finished 6th in the BC Mile.  I’d give him a shot if we were on a true dirt surface and rain was in the forecast, but his 1 for 12 record on synthetics leaves me thinking he’s an outsider here.

How do I see this race playing out?  I think REGAL RANSOM, QUALITY ROAD, and GIROLAMO will contest things early on .  As the field nears the turn, ZENYATTA will start to uncoil and swing wide (like she always does) and start mowing down horses in front of her.  RIP VAN WINKLE will be a bit more forwardly placed along with SUMMER BIRD, EINSTEIN, and TWICE OVER.  This group will actually get frist run at the leading trio, with ZENYATTA, COLONEL JOHN, RICHARD’s KID, MINE THAT BIRD, and GIO PONTI further back. 

I like RIP VAN WINKLE and ZENYATTA to rise to the top, due to their respective class, and leave us with a finish for th ages.  I’m calling a photo finish that could go either way depending on the head bob.  Two gutsy, world class competitors leaving it all on the line.  No quarter shall be asked, and none shall be given.  God bless ‘em, this ought to be a good one.

Selections:

  • #10 Rip Van Winkle (7/2)
  • #4 Zenyatta (5/2*)
  • #3 Summer Bird (9/2)

Best of luck to all!  May this be a Breeders’ Cup to remember.  Don’t forget that we’ve got all 13 of the previous Breeders’ Cup races for the weekend covered as well.  For quick access, you can locate those posts here.


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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Colonel John, Einstein, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Mine That Bird, Quality Road, Santa Anita, Summer Bird, TBA, Zenyatta

Saturday Stakes Selections – 6/13/09

12 06 2009

With the 2009 Triple Crown season behind us, it’s time to start looking forward to the summer campaigns ahead for many of the top horses in racing.  On Saturday at Churchill Downs, racing fans will be treated to at least one such horse in the marquee race of the day, the 28th running of the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap.  Einstein, a 7-year-old son of Spend a Buck, looks to inch closer to the $3 million dollar mark in lifetime earnings and cement his place as the top older male in the nation. 

Earlier in the day at Monmouth Park, the sensational 2008 Kentucky Derby champion Big Brown will be honored with a free bobblehead giveaway in his likeness for each paid admission.  From coast to coast and from noon to sundown (at least over here on the east coast),  major stakes races dot the calendar at Belmont, Philly, Churchill, Monmouth, and Hollywood. Here’s a quick rundown of the major stakes races I’ll be focusing on this weekend.

Belmont Park – Race 4:  The Ogden Phipps Handicap (G1) – 2:26 ET

Selections:

  • #3 Seattle Smooth (5/2)
  • #1A Music Note (2/5*)
  • #1 Seventh Street (2/5*)

We’ll start things off in the Ogden Phipps, for fillies and mares 3-years-old and upward going 1 1/16 miles over the main Belmont track.  Godolphin and Darley send out a very tough looking triple entry in #1 Seventh Street, #1A Music Note, and #1x Sea Chanter.  From a betting standpoint, let me just say that it’s absolutely infuriating to see a 7 horse race where 3 of the horses, nearly half the field, are a combined entry.  That’s real fair.  Thanks.  You know what?  I say we refuse to eat chalk here by playing against the obvious choice, and there just might be a horse in here who can get it done. 

It’ll take the race of her life, and we’ll be playing into the teeth of the overwhelming favorites, but why not take a ride on #3 Seattle Smooth?  Listed as 5/2 on the morning line, the improving 4-year-old daughter of Quiet American may have yet to reach her ceiling.  Another move forward and she’s suddenly very competitive with the favored trio, and note that she beat one of them last time out in the Shuvee.  The chalk looks tough, but there’s no fun in giving out 2/5  selections.  Live a little and take a shot with Seattle Smooth.

 

Philadelphia Park – Race 8: The Jostle ($200k) – 3:22 ET

Selections:

  • #2 Cinderella’s Wish (5/1)
  • #11 On the Menu (9/2)
  • #10 Union City (8/1)

We take a rare journey to Philadelphia Park for the 3rd running of The Jostle, for 3-year-old fillies sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track.  We’ve got a full field of 12 runners in what appears to be a very interesting betting race.  As is usually the case with me when it comes to the ladies, I’ve got my heart set on one girl here.  Anyone who was following along with our tweets on Black Eyed Susan Day during Preakness weekend will have no trouble figuring out who it is. 

#2 Cinderella’s Wish absolutely wowed me in the paddock…until she got a bit unruly and began kicking wildly.  She was up against a very sharp looking Steven Asmussen runner in the overwhelming favorite that day, Heart Ashley.  Cinderella’s Wish was 10/1 on the line that day, while Heart Ashley was odds on top choice.  As the field turned for home, it looked like Heart Ashley was toying with the field.  With about a furlong to go, however, Cinderella’s Wish made up her mind to put in a serious charge, and darn near nailed Heart Ashley at the wire.  It took a photo finish to sort things out, and in the end she was just a head short.  From where I sat it looked  a lot closer than that, and in fact I thought she had actually defeated Heart Ashley.  She’s my pick of the day.  Lock and load.   Go get ‘em, baby girl! 

 #11 On the Menu and #10 Union City are two I’d pay close attention to in the post parade, provided you have the opportunity to do so.  Either one could run big today.  I’m taking a stand against the morning line favorite, #5 Saarlight, despite that one’s speed.  This race should be quick, which should set up nicely for Cinderella’s Wish and On the Menu.

 

Monmouth Park – Race 9:  The Monmouth Stakes ($200k) – 4:50 ET

Selections:

  • #1 Proudinksy (3/1*)
  • #7 Presious Passion (9/2)
  • #4 Grand Couturier (7/2)

What’s this?  I must have gone mad. After playing against rather solid favorites in the first two races we’ve covered, I’m now going with a lukewarm 3/1 favorite in the Monmouth Stakes?  Strange things happen when bobbleheads are introduced into the equation.  Nothing is as it seems.  I actually thought Grand Couturier would be the favorite here, and he still may be come post time.  While I think he’s a factor here, it’s the long layoff that concerns me the most, and the fact that he seems to be prepping for the Man O’ War later this summer. 

Presious Passion is a very dangerous horse who would be the pick if we were going just a bit further.  It doesn’t appear that 1 1/8 miles is his best distance.  He’ll be tough though.  That leaves Proudinksy as the selection, and he appears to have many things going for him.  He’s lethal at this distance, he’s making the 2nd start of his form cycle, and he’s dropping in from the Grade 1 ranks where he came up a bit flat in his last effort.  I always seem to wind up with this guy in my picks.  I’ll hop aboard again this weekend. 

Another runner that I think has an outside shot here (quite literally) is #9 Kiss the Kid.  His effort in the Dixie has the effect of darkening his form, but he did finish within 2 1/2 lengths of the winner.  Lord knows I love me some Lemon Drops.  If he looks good in the post parade, I might take a stab with him.  

 

Churchill Downs – Race 10: The Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) – 5:29 ET

Selections:

  • #6 Bullsbay (10/1)
  • #3 Einstein (2/1*)
  • #5 Researcher (4/1)

The feature race of the day is the return to the dirt for the versatile Einstein.  The old boy is making quite a name for himself with the ability to win on seemingly any surface.  I’m on record as saying I prefer him slightly on turf, but he’s got the class and the guts to get the job done here. 

He won’t get away with it easy, however.  Two rivals in particular look very intriguing.  Bullsbay is currently listed as 10/1 on the morning line.  That’s absolute theft for a  gutsy son of Tiznow who hasn’t been out of the exacta in the last 6 races he’s finished (he did pull up in the Donn Handicap back in January).  I guess folks are worried about the class hike, but this is a Tiznow we’re talking about.  They’re always fighters.  Plus, look at the connections.  It’s Graham Motion!  One of my favorite trainers.  That’s too much for me.  A favorite sire that I like to play and a favorite trainer against what is sure to be an overwhelming favorite?  I’ll take the chance and go with Bullsbay in a win bet here. 

Don’t get me wrong.  I do believe Einstein will come home on top, but at 10/1 it’s impossible to ignore Bullsbay.  Researcher is another intriguing runner who is stepping up in class and is exiting back to back big wins at Charles Town.  The presence of jockey Calvin Borel means that he’ll take plenty of play at the windows, but he’s another that must be considered if you’re looking to catch a price. 

One other note about Churchill – don’t miss Warrior’s Reward in the Northern Dancer (race 8, post time 4:29 ET).  He’s a Medaglia d’Oro 3-year-old.  Enough said.

 

Hollywood Park – Race 9: The Californian (G2) – 5:00 PT

Selections:

  • #4 Aitcho (8/1)
  • #3 Rail Trip (5/2*)
  • #6 Song of Navarone (8/1)

We wind up the afternoon with the feature race from Hollywood Park, the 56th running of the Grade 2 Californian for 3-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles over the main track.   Rail Trip and Ball Four look to lock horns again and are likely to be considered the top threats for this race.  Last out, Ball Four was able to pull the upset by wiring the field and holding off today’ top choice, along with another useful runner in this field, Dakota Phone.  This race looks wide open, so make sure you spread fairly deep if playing the exotics.  Ultimately, I thought Rail Trip would prove to be the better horse, but it’s entirely possible that the distance may not be to his liking. 

As such, I went with the improving Aitcho for trainer John Shirreffs. As is the case with Zenyatta, Shirreffs teams up with jockey Mike Smith here with Aitcho, and the son of Stromy Atlantic looks to test the stakes waters for the first time following his most recent victory at the allowance level.  Is this an acid test?  Sure.  Do his previous races stack up with the best of other runners in this field?  Not exactly, but he does have upside, and at  8/1 he offers value on the tote board.  Mary Forney recently caught up with Aitcho schooling in the paddock and has a nice picture if you’d like to get a glimpse.  Looks like a fine colt to me. 

Another interesting bomber that should be a large price on the board is Song of Navarone.  He’s never been on synthetics before, which will scare most folks away.  But c’mon…he’s run (and won multiple times) at the vaunted Sunland Park.  You aren’t going to toss anything coming from Sunland are you? Victor Espinoza’s in the saddle.  Obviously this will all come down to how well this runner likes the surface, but the possibility is there.  I’m just sayin’.  Let the post parade factor into your ultimate decision, but do not totally overlook Aitcho or Song of Navarone.

That’ll just about do it for this weekend.  Don’t forget to check out Indian Blessing and Kip Deville on Sunday.  ‘Blessing will be sprinting in the Desert Stormer Handicap at Hollywood Park, while Kip Deville will return in the Grade 3 Poker Stakes.

Best of luck to all and enjoy the weekend.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Churchill Downs, Einstein, Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Indian Blessing, Music Note

Stardom Bound looks to steal the show on Big Cap Day at Santa Anita.

7 03 2009

Go ahead.  Beat her if you can. California’s top three-year-old filly takes her next step today in the 70th running of the Santa Anita Oaks (Grade 1).   Eight other fillies have lined up to challenge the daughter of Tapit who continues to flirt with Kentucky Derby dreams.  On a day that feature arguably the most competitive race of the year in the $1,000,000 Santa Anita Handicap, the return of Stardom Bound in the Santa Anita Oaks figures to be the most compelling story of the day.   The field sets up like this:

  1. Stardom Bound (M. Smith/R. Frankel) 2/5*
  2. Burg Berg (T. Baze/P. Gonzalez) 10/1
  3. Miss Silver Brook (A. Solis/J. Canani) 12/1
  4. Hooh Why (R. Albarado/ C. Gaines) 15/1
  5. Stormy Slew (J. Velazquez/D. O’Neill) 30/1
  6. Nan (C. Nakatani/ C. Dollase) 15/1
  7. Will O Way (R. Baze/ V. Cerin) 8/1
  8. Beltene (J. Rosario/ J. Carava) 15/1
  9. Third Dawn (J. Sadler/R. Bejarano) 30/1

A victory here could propel Stardom Bound to the Santa Anita Derby and beyond.  A defeat and her connections may have to regroup.  While on paper she may look entirely like a 2/5 favorite, we’ve all seen her visually and know she has at least a fraction of the same special qualities we see in Zenyatta.  She’s the class of her field, and nobody is going to touch her today. 

A horse that I think can really get up into the money at some long odds is Beltene.  All this horse has done is rattle off 3 lifetime victories in as many starts.   She’s beaten 22 horses thus far.  I’m not saying she’ll beat Stardom Bound, but beyond the obvious favorite there aren’t any that look like monsters in here.  At 15/1 I’ll bite that this one can wind up in the money.  The distance will be the obvious question. 

Hooh Why is another horse at longer odds that I think could make some noise here.  The angle that leaps out at you is the fine finish behind the highly regarded Patena in the Display at Woodbine on 12/6/08.  She doesn’t seem to run bad races either.  Love seeing a filly who has battled with colts (and good ones at that) and run a big race.  My money says she’ll be a player here for a minor award.

Burg Berg is an obvious contender for the exacta as she will likely control the early pace.  Stardom Bound will be looking to run her down to stretch to score.  I’m not sure if she wants to go the distance today.  If she can hang on she’s a logical choice for place.  If she fades she’ll likely be off the board.  Ultimately I think you’ve got to use her.

Miss Silver Brook is another who could take some play.  Trainer Julio Canani is already having a brilliant 2009 campaign thanks to the top dog in his stable, The Pamplemousse.  This filly seems to have been training lights out recently and could be picking off horses late. 

Lastly you have to consider the other horses with graded stakes experience; Nan and Will O Way. Of those two I prefer Will O Way at the 1 1/16 mile distance. 

I’ll play Stardom Bound on top and look to catch some value underneath with Miss Silver Brook, Burg Berg, and Beltene in place.  I’ll add in Hooh Why and Will O Way for show.  We’ll round it out with Nan and Third Dawn on the bottom.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #1 Stardom Bound
  • $.10 Superfecta: 1/2,3,8/2,3,4,7,8/2,3,4,6,7,8,9 ($6.00)

Looking over the rest of the Santa Anita card.  The Big Cap looks like a tremendous betting race, especially with the defection of lukewarm favorite Colonel John.  I like Einstein to run a big figure over the Pro Ride. You could make a case for virtually the entire field though.  Just an excellent race from top to bottom.  In the Fank Kilroe I like the filly, Ventura.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita, Square Eddie, Stardom Bound

Saturday Gulfstream picks

30 01 2009

Hot off an exciting Friday that saw Captain Candyman Can prevail in the Hutcheson (where highly touted Break Water Edison finished a disappointing 6th), Guflstream Park comes right back with an even more thrilling Saturday card that features the Grade 1 Donn Handicap, the Grade 3 Holy Bull, and the much anticipated debut of Barbaro’s little brother, Nicanor.  As if all of that were not enough, Gulfstream beckons horseplayers from all over the land with 10 cent superfectas and a much needed 50 cent Pick 4 sequence. 

For anyone in need, you can access a free copy of the Gulfstream past performances over at the home page for the TBA.

Race 7: The Grade 3 Holy Bull  (1 1/8 Miles)

  • #1 Bruce N Autumn (12/1)
  • #2 Danger to Society (5/1)
  • #3 Bear’s Rocket (20/1)
  • #4 Saratoga Sinner (12/1)
  • #5 El Crespo (12/1)
  • #6 Rockland (8/1)
  • #7 Stately Character (20/1)
  • #8 Idol Maker (6/1)
  • #9 Nowhere to Hide (8/1)
  • #10 West Side Bernie (3/1*)
  • #11 Beethoven (4/1)

Several horses who hope to figure prominently on the Kentucky Derby trail highlight the 20th running of the Holy Bull.  Beethoven and West Side Bernie, the likely favorites, have each drawn outside post positions for the two-turn route, and could be compromised by this development.  Might that set things up for a thief from the inside? 

From looking over the selections of the handicappers in the Saturday edition of the DRF, I see I’m not alone in boosting the chances of the promising Danger to Society.  He’s an intriguing son of Harlan’s Holiday who is undefeated in two starts.  While it’s tough to figure out just what quality of opponents he’s been facing, he could get a great trip here today stalking from off the pace.  I especially like that he’s got a victory under his belt at the demanding 9 furlong distance, something neither Beethoven or West Side Bernie can say. 

I consider myself enough of a Beethoven fan at the moment to anticipate that he’ll run well on Saturday.  He’s been flattered now with Captain Candyman Can’s win in the Hutcheson on Friday, as he defeated him last time out along with Giant Oak.  I think this makes Beethoven the class of the field and the obvious win candidate on paper.  My only problem with West Side Bernie is that he exits the Delta Jackpot, and we all know historically that race tends to be inflated in terms of class and worth. 

Another interesting runner to consider here on the bottom of exotic tickets is the Smarty Jones colt Rockland.  He’d have to step up big time to win here, and I don’t predict that happening, but it’s hard to knock his recent form.  True, he only stepped up to the lower allowance level last time out, but it’s still nice to see a Beyer improvement from 77 to 82 his first time against winners. 

Stately Character is another that warrants some consideration.  He offers great value at 20/1 and should be charging late if he gets something to run at.  Speaking of which, from a pace standpoint, this one does look a little curious.  I’m guessing Idol Maker and Bear’s Rocket should be a part of whatever is going on early on.   Danger to Society could be involved as well, or he could stalk.  Either way I think the pace setup is very favorable to him.  El Crespo is the x-factor here to me as it’s any-one’s guess how his recent turf form will translate to dirt in his first try over that surface. 

For my superfecta ticket, I’ll play Danger to Society for the win over Beethoven, West Side Bernie, and Stately Character.  I’ll add in Rockland and El Crespo underneath for show.  Rounding out the ticket I’ll add in Idol Maker and Bruce N’ Autumn for 4th.

2/7,10,11/5,6,7,10,11/1,5,6,7,8,10,11 ($6.00)

 

Race 9:  The Grade 1 Donn Handicap (1 1/8 Miles)

  • #1 Finallymadeit (12/1)
  • #2 Albertus Maximus (4/1)
  • #3 Anak Nakal (10/1)
  • #4 Bullsbay (8/1)
  • #5 A.P. Arrow (10/1)
  • #6 On Board Again (20/1)
  • #7 Arson Squad (3/1)
  • #8 Sir Whimsy (12/1)
  • #9 Great Hunter (15/1)
  • #10 Einstein (5/2*)

The Donn stacks up as a formidable feature race on the Gulfstream card. This is the kind of feature that would be the centerpiece of that crazy “Take Back Saturday” idea I’m always on about.  We’ve got Albertus Maximus, Einstein, and a very sharp looking Arson Squad all lined up to do battle.  Every runner in the race with the exception of Bullsbay has posted a 100 Beyer at some point in their career.  Want to know the crazy thing though?  I actually really like Bullsbay here as a value play.  I’ll explain more in a bit.

First, let’s look at the obvious.  The top two win candidates on paper have to be considered Einstein and Arson Squad.  Einstein gets the outside draw here, but he’s classy enough to overcome that.  I usually think of Einstein as more of a turf runner (as many do), but he’s showed that he can run competitively on the dirt, as evidenced by his win in the Clark Handicap and his 2nd place finish to eventual Horse of the Year winner Curlin in the Stephen Foster.   Even better for Einstein, 9 furlongs seems to be his sweet spot.  I think he’s got a big chance here, but the value likely won’t be much.  He’s a definite horse to cover in the exotics.

Arson Squad is another to keep an eye on.  If you’ve been following the mini-feud between Andy Beyer and trainer Rick Dutrow in the Daily Racing Form over Dutrow’s dramatically improved colt This Ones for Phil, you’re no doubt wondering “if Dutrow could do that with a career best 80 Beyer runner, what might he do with Arson Squad here?”  The answer is simple.  Don’t look for any dramatic 20 point increase, but this is clearly a horse in sharp form that is to be respected in this contest.  The one thing that worries me with him is that he’s seemingly gotten better with a few races under his belt following a layoff, and he’s been off since late November.  That being said, he certainly improved once entering Dutrow’s barn, and has been working pretty well in the mornings.  He’s another player with a big shot, but I’ll once again probably look elsewhere for value in the superfecta.

Albertus Maximus is probably going to wind up the 3rd choice on the tote board at post time, but there are questions with him as well.  He’s not exactly known for his true dirt form and is seemingly a better synthetic runner, although do note that he has a win and a place in two starts over the conventional surface.  He’s probably the hardest horse to get a read on in the entire field and could show up huge or be a huge bust. 

My upset special?  I’m going with the dark horse, the only guy not yet in the 100 Beyer club.  That’s right: Bullsbay.   I know, it may look like madness at first glance, but here me out on this.  First, he’s from trainer Graham Motion’s barn, who has always been one of my favorites.   Two races back he defeated a field that included Belmont Stakes winner Da’ Tara.  He got a good primer under his belt going 8 furlongs last out and raylling for 2nd place over the Gulfstream main track.  Lastly, he’s a Tiznow…and one that figures to offer some value on the board.  Make no mistake, I”m not necessarily predicting he’ll win here, as I’d expect either Einstein or Arson Squad do wind up in the winner’s circle.  I just think he’s got enough of a chance here to be a decent value play.  Especially in the superfecta. 

4/2,7,10/1,2,3,7,10/1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10 ($8.40)

 

As for Nicanor’s debut?  I’m going to sit and watch this one.  Don’t get me wrong, I’ll have a pick 4 ticket in play that will likely have him covered, but I’m not going to heap any expectations on the colt until we see what we have in him.  It’s enough for now that he’s in racing and that at least some of the same genes that went into Barbaro are back on the track.  Anything on top of that is gravy.   We’ve also got the Santa Monia at Santa Anita, but with Indian Blessing’s scratch that race got a lot less exciting.  Ventura all the way for what it’s worth. 

As always, be sure to check for late scratches and or changes.  Best of luck to everyone.


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Categories : Barbaro, Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail

Arlington Million a worthy feature

8 08 2008

The feature race on the Saturday card at Arlington Park is without a doubt the 26th running of the Grade 1 Arlington Million.  A total purse of $1,000,000 is on the line for three-year-olds and older running 1 1/4 miles over the turf track – and boy does it look like a good one.  While the field was recently thinned with the scratch of likely pace setter Sudan,  a healthy dose of international flavor in the Arlington Million makes this arguably the best turf race we’ve seen so far this year in the U.S. 

The field, with jockeys and odds is as follows:

  • #1 Archipenko – K. Shea (2/1*)
  • #2 Stream Cat – J. Leparoux (8/1)
  • #3 Spirit One – I. Mendizabal (10/1)
  • #5 Cloudy’s Knight – R. ZImmerman (20/1)
  • #6 Einstein – R. Albarado (7/2)
  • #7 Mount Nelson – J. Murtagh (5/2)
  • #8 Silverfoot – R. Douglas (20/1)

Archipenko is the headliner here. In his last 4 races (all Group 1 or Group 2 caliber) he’s managed 3 victories – all at relative longshot odds (when betting has been available).  On Saturday he’ll wear the target of favorite on his back for the first time since being defeated in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp last September.  The 4-year-old son of Kingmambo  has a lethal stalking style now as opposed to earlier in his career that figures to make short work of whomever decides to replace Sudan at the front of the pack. 

That honor will likely fall to Spirit One now that Sudan has scratched.  While Spirit One certainly hasn’t been disgraced in his most recent races at Longchamp, it’s hard for me to imagine him wiring this field if indeed he finds himself on the lead.  Archipenko and Einstein, among others should be stalking him beautifully andI feel these are both better horses turning for home on the turf.

Einstein is intriguing. I’ve always liked this guy.  Right now he’s probably the best U.S. turf horse there is, but he’s going to have to earn it if he’s to upset the favorite Archipenko here.  I wouldn’t be too harsh on Einstein for finishing 2nd in his last effort – that was obviously a prep race and trainer Helen Pitts has publicly stated so.  In the weekend where the 2008 Olympics kick off, if an American runner is to defend “home turf” – you’re likely talking about Einstein.

Mount Nelson is the wild card here for me.  If he were to get a decent pace to run at, this guy could be coming on like a freight train late in the stretch. The question will be can he get to the wire ahead of Archipenko, Einstein, anda likely fading Spirit One?  Mount Nelson is yet another runner for trainer Aidan O’ Brien who we mentioned in a previous post is seeking the record for Grade 1/Group 1 wins in a single season.  In a bit of a dramatic twist, folks who have read the front page article on Saturday’s edition of the Daily Racing Form will note that at one time O’Brien was the trainer for non other than today’s main rival, Archipenko. 

Stream Cat is another in this field that warrants some consideration.  He was able to defeat Cosmonaut last out, but will have to “class up” quite a bit to take on the likes of Einstein, Archipenko, and Mount Nelson to prevail here.  I think he’s an obvious one to ponder in the exactas and trifectas though.  He’s got some very impressive Beyer figures that show he’s capable of finishing in the money, andyou have to look pretty far back to July of 2006 to find his last start where he finished out of the superfecta. 

Longshot runners Cloudy’s Knight and Silverfoot would appear to be outclassed to me on paper.  Perhaps a year ago I may have been interested in Cloudy Knight here, but those last two efforts have me thinking Father Time may have caught up with the 8-year-old son of Lord Avie.

I’ll use Archipenko for the win here.  It’s an obvious choice, I admit, but this guy looks like a special turf runner.  I’ll go a bit deeper here than I prefer for place for a couple of reasons.  Firstly, if Spirit One gets loose on the lead I think he’s got every right to wind up in the exacta.  Secondly, I respect Einstein and Helen Pitts enough that I think you’ve got to use them as well.  Mount Nelson is the more obvious second choice.  I’ll take those three along with Stream Cat for show.  It’s a bit deeper than I prefer to give out, but it’s still under $10. 

Selections: 1/3,6,7/2,3,6,7 ($9)


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Categories : Arlington Park, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News


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