A common recipe for success with travelling bands is to have another act “open” for you, warming up the crowd and getting them ready for the main event. With the 2009 Kentucky Derby looming just hours away, the two best female horses in the country will take to the stage to do a whole lot more than just open for the boys the following day. When all is said and done, they just might be the highlight of the entire racing weekend.
In a day filled with marquee racing, we begin by focusing our attention on the 24th running of the Grade 2 Louisville going 1 1/16 miles over the Churchill main track. In a bit of a surprising move (to me at least), the connections of Zenyatta decided to throw racing fans a serious bone by bringing the “50 foot woman” back to kick off her 2009 5-year-old campaign right here on the Oaks day undercard. I think I speak for every racing fan when I say “we’ll take it!” Not since her scintillating performance in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic have we seen her race. Six full months on the shelf resting, working, watching, and waiting. Zenyatta doesn’t sleep…she waits!
After so much time on the shelf, you’ll forgive her if she comes out of the gate a bit rusty. Of course she’s also travelled east away from the friendly confines of the Southern California racing circuit, where she has throttled everything they’ve thrown at her. For some reason folks are whispering that might be an angle to take into consideration and perhaps play against her. I think the layoff is the one and only concern with her, as we’ve seen her muscle her way through in dominating style on true dirt before in the 2008 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park. In other words, I’ve got no worries about her on dirt.
She is a bad, bad lady, and losing simply isn’t in her vocabulary. With Curlin out of the picture in 2009, I’ve gravitated towards Zenyatta as my favorite horse in racing. After all, she’s my slow cheetah. 
Even though she’ll be heavy chalk, I like her to prevail. One Caroline will be the one she’s got to run down in the stretch, and with potential lone speed that runner could be a handful….or she could just be the next target for Zenyatta to set her sights on and devour in the stretch. I’ll play Zenyatta over One Caroline in the exacta. For the trifecta I’ll add in Unbridled Belle to the place position, and then try to find a smidgen of value by adding in Swift Temper, Miss Isella, and Modification on the bottom of the ticket in show position.
The Louisville is part of the Oaks Day Pick 6 sequence, but is not included in the late Pick 4 that ends on the feature race. I’m not sure you can consider Zenyatta a true “free square” thanks to the layoff concern, but she’s still a solid play and obviously you can’t leave her off. If you can afford to, I’d stretch a little and cover One Caroline just in case she gets away with easy splits out in front. Ultimately I think Swift Temper will keep One Caroline honest and help set things up for Zenyatta to be rolling in the stretch, but just in case…well, you get the picture.
Selections for the G2 Louisville:
$1 Trifecta: 2/4,8/ 1,3,4,6,8 = $8
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The feature race of the afternoon is the 135th running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, with 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/8 miles over the main dirt track for a total purse of $500,000. All eyes will be on Rachel Alexandra, the filly phenom who has the horse racing world buzzing with her uber impressive 2009 campaign thus far, including victories in the Fair Ground Oaks and the Fantasy (Grade 2 races each). She’s 3 for 3 this year and on a 4 for 4 roll going back to late 2008. The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro is good enough that I’m on record as saying she’d be a contender in the Derby had her connections decided to enter her there.
Note: For those of you who, like me, are not able to receive HRTV in your local viewing area, the Oaks is scheduled to be shown on Bravo as well, with a post time of 5:45PM ET.
To be fair, she’s got some competition here in the form of both Flying Spur on the outside, and Justwhistledixie to her immediate inside. There’s also Gabby’s Golden Gal in the 4 hole with some speed, so Rachel likely won’t have as easy a time on the lead as she did in the Fair Grounds Oaks or the Fantasy. Still, she doesn’t need the early lead to win. I could see her sitting patiently in second if another runner wants to go lights out, and then making her move as they enter the final turn.
Ultimately I believe rather strongly that Rachel Alexandra is the true “free square” of the day in terms of the Pick 6 sequence (if such a thing as a “free square” can even be said to exist in horse racing, which is highly debatable at least). I just can’t see any of these runners besting her. Not on this big a stage. I’ll play the chalk on top with Flying Spur and Justwhistledixie in place. I’ll add in Gabby’s Golden Gal and Be Fair for show, as well as longshot Stone Legacy, if only because she looks like a closer and there’s ample speed in here for her to chase.
Selections for the G1 Oaks:
$1 Trifecta: 6/ 5,8/ 2,3,4,5,8 = $8
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As for the rest of the undercard, and in particular the other races of the Pick 4 sequence that ends with Oaks in race 11, I’d say the theme should be to spread fairly deep. I could make a case for 7 of the 12 runners in The Edgewood (race 8), and likewise could see opportunities for 7 of the 10 runners in the Grade 3 Alysheba (race 9). Thankfully, the Grade 3 American Turf (race 10) looks a bit more formfull on paper, and I think you can dwindle it down to 3 logical contenders: Stormalory, Battle of Hastings, and Bittel Road. Ultimately I think you’ve got to take a stab at the Pick 4 pool thanks to the 50 cent minimum wager opportunity. The ticket I’m considering playing looks like this at the moment:
Oaks Day $.50 Late Pick 4:
2,4,7,10/ 1,2,3,4,5,8/ 1,3,6/ 6 = $36
Best of luck to all, and of course to the jockeys, horses, and the numerous folks on the backside who help make it all happen, here’s hoping for a safe and exciting day for all.
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