Gearing up for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, here’s a quick spin through some of the workout videos available on youtube. In this round of clips we see Quality Road making his first workout since having his quarter crack patched, Friesan Fire turning in a nice AM drill, and Chocolate Candy getting a nice work with jockey Mike Smith in the saddle.
Quality Road 4/10/09 @ Belmont
Friesan Fire 4/14/09 @ Keeneland:
Chocolate Candy 4/12/09 @ Santa Anita
While the past week didn’t produce any shocking upsets or long prices in the major Derby preps, it was arguably the most important of the entire campaign. It now appears that The Pamplemousse will be off the Kentucky Derby trail. The impact of this blow was softened somewhat by a dominating performance from I Want Revenge in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, proving that he is a legitimate Derby threat (and possibly more). Everyone is furiously adjusting their rankings taking into account the recent changes as all of the roads to the Derby begin to converge.
We’re getting down to H-hour, folks. You can feel it in the air. I even cut my lawn this weekend for the first time this Spring. I’m a bit upset that we’ve lost The Pamplemousse, as he was one of my favorites, but I’m hopeful that a horse like Dunkirk will now find a way to squeeze into the field. He’ll make it a more interesting race if he does. With a month to go, here’s how I rank ‘em.
Other horses to keep an eye on include: Papa Clem, Theregoesjojo, Regal Ransom, and Mafaaz. Up next this weekend are the Arkansas Derby (G2) and the Blue Grass (G1).
A horse, a horse, my kingdom for a horse!
Now that Quality Road has dispatched the heavily hyped Dunkirk, just where does the son of Elusive Quality belong in the rankings for the 2009 Kentucky Derby? All the way at the top, if you ask me. His gutsy performance to hold off the late charging Dunkirk in the stretch at Gulfstream Park has convinced me that this lightly raced colt will be a force to be reckoned with come the first Saturday in May.
Quality Road finds another gear to hold off Dunkirk in the Florida Derby
Ranking the Derby contenders gets incredibly complex, if you allow it to be so, due to the different paths being taken by the various runners. Without an opportunity to size them up in face-to-face competition, one is left using the non-scientific approach of interjecting much speculation into their analysis. Even taking things as straightforward as final time comparisons cannot be considered truly “apples to apples” due to the differences in surface at each of the race tracks in question.
So what are we to make of Quality Road? How does he match up with the other big guns? At some point you have to draw the line between hype and actual production. It’s a blurred line and one that is constantly changing as the situation unfolds. For example, I believe that right now you have to rank Friesan Fire and Quality Road above the other contenders. They’ve finished their preps, and they’ve both done so in impressive style. Just around the corner, however, we’ll get our best read on the contenders coming from California (in the Santa Anita Derby), and New York (In the Wood Memorial), so things are not set in stone at the top of the list.
Let’s start by looking at the top 5:
I don’t think there’s much variety out there in terms of who belongs in the top 5. The argument seems to be where these top 5 should be ranked in relation to one another. Disregard the #1 and #2 rankings for a moment on Friesan Fire and Quality Road. Truth be told I consider them to be dual #1 contenders. Both colts used similar stalk and pounce approaches to cash in on their recent victories. Friesan Fire had to run down the speedy Papa Clem early on, and then hold off late charges from Terrain and Giant Oak. Many of the bigger named horses who gave the Louisiana Derby such a deep feel prior to the race (Flying Pegasus, Patena, etc.) simply did not fire for whatever reason, leaving Friesan Fire with a relatively easy victory once he reeled in Papa Clem. Quality Road didn’t face a field quite as deep on paper, but the big names in the Florida Derby did show up to run, as he had to hold off the late charging Dunkirk in the stretch (as well as Theregoesjojo who ran well enough for show) after dispensing with longshot pacesetter Casey’s on Call. The end result? I think you’ve got to have these guys one, two. Where you rank them amongst each other is open for debate, but for now I”ll give the slight edge to Quality Road, and continue to be disappointed that I could not select the horse in the Road to the Roses challenge.
Moving down the list, the next great debate is what to do with the California runners and I Want Revenge. Obviously if I Want Revenge had remained in California, this would be easier to do from a direct comparison standpoint. However, that would have left us completely unable to determine how these colts might run once they tried the dirt for the first time. With the defections of Papa Clem and I Want Revenge and the subsequent success they’ve enjoyed, their would seem to be much promise for the colts currently leading the California Division; The Pamplemousse and Pioneer of the Nile. Until Pioneer of the Nile shows he can rundown The Grapefruit (which he very well might do in the upcoming Santa Anita Derby), I”ll continue to rank The Pamplemousse ahead of him. With The Pamplemousse firmly entrenched at 3rd, that makes things simple for me as I can look at the next two and say “well, Pioneer of the Nile defeated I Want Revenge head to head, so he stays on top for now.” Of course, it’s never quite that easy, and the 113 Beyer figure that I Want Revenge earned on dirt in the Gotham suggests he’s just as capable as Quality Road. Here’s one last factor in stacking them as I have above. Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse will square off face to face next weekend at Santa Anita, so we’ll get a much clearer read on how they match up. I Want Revenge will face a challenge from some of the lower ranked contenders, and could be vulnerable if a runner like Imperial Council rises to the occasion.
Things get a bit fuzzier once you’re outside of the top 5. The first challenge is what to do with the falling stock of both Dunkirk and Old Fashioned. Dunkirk in particular might not have enough earnings to even qualify for the Kentucky Derby, which basically makes his position on a Derby rankings list rather moot. Let’s say he does find a way to draw into the field though. Then what would we make of him? Is he not good enough to merit consideration among the bigger guns? We must remember that the Florida Derby was this horse’s third race of his career. There’s still a tremendous amount of room for improvement, and judging from the way this guy is bred and the fact that he’s only allowed one horse to finish in front of him so far (and did not go down without a fight), I think you’ve got to keep him around. Ditto for Old Fashioned. Larry Jones is simply too good a horseman for this guy to fall too far. I’m convinced Friesan Fire is his best shot, but Old Fashioned has enough class in him to get past many in this year’s crop.
Then you’ve got some room for “buzz” horses and longshots. Imperial Council fits into that former category and now becomes the hype horse in the rankings. He’ll get a shot to turn the tables on I Want Revenge in the Wood, and if he were to do so he’d have to be considered a top 5 contender in the Derby at least. I’m still holding out hope that this guy could be the best of the Empire Maker colts this year (with all due respect to Pioneer of the Nile).
Chocolate Candy is now the “Rodney Dangerfield” of this list. Each week it’s someone different who gets no respect. In CC’s case, I believe it’s because folks simply haven’t had many good looks at him.. All that will change next weekend with the Santa Anita Derby. He needs to finish in the top 3 to warrant this ranking, but stop for a moment and consider what a shakeup it would be if he found a way to prevail? I’m not saying that will happen, but what would the fallout be if it did? The only thing I can find that he hasn’t done is to win a race recently.
Lastly, there’s my longshot Win Willy, who I’m going to hold onto in this rankings until someone else forces me to remove him. I’ll clue you in on another thought going through my mind right now that relates to this guy. The Pamplemousse is a speedy type. Friesan Fire, Quality Road, and even Old Fashioned like to be just off the pace anywhere from 2nd to 4th in the early running. We just might have enough early zip up front that things could open up for a closer like this. It might take some additional lights out speed signed up on the front end, but I’m just saying that a horse that isn’t on most people’s lists despite running a very visually impressive race to defeat the then top ranked Old Fashioned still warrants some consideration.
So there you have it, for the moment at least. In the spirit of the increasingly annoying Capital One credit card commercials: “Who’s on your list? “
Going into Saturday’s prep races, many horseplayers (myself included) would’ve confidently listed Old Fashioned as trainer Larry Jones top colt on the Kentucky Derby trail. After Friesan Fire’s impressive victory in the $600,000 Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, I’m not so certain that’s the case anymore.
The combination of Friesan Fire’s dominating victory in the Louisiana Derby and Old Fashioned’s stunning defeat in the Rebel, the Derby lists of horseplayers all over the country are going to get quite a shakeup. Adding to the confusion will be that the highly regarded Rick Dutrow colt Patena and the Ralph Nicks trained Flying Pegasus did not run particularly impressive races in the Louisiana Derby. They figure to be desperate for graded stakes earnings if they are still being pointed towards the Kentucky Derby this May. If Patena doesn’t make it in for IEAH Stables, might that put more focus back on a runner like Stardom Bound? It’s possible.
Papa Clem, the California shipper who was rumored to have been a bit unhappy after arriving in Louisiana, was the early pace setter. Friesan Fire tracked early on along with Flying Pegasus and Soul Warrior. Just after the opening quarter in :24.12, jockey Gabriel Saez moved Friesan Fire into 2nd position behind Papa Clem. Papa Clem continued to lead through the opening half-mile in :48.75, but Friesan Fire was already gaining ground with every step.
Saez was patient with Friesan Fire, only firing to the lead once in the stretch. Suddenly he was opening up an ever widening gap behind himself and the rapidly fading Papa Clem, who was coming back to the rest of the field. It was never in doubt for a moment once the real running began.
The winning time for Friesan Fire in the 1 1/16 Mile Louisiana Derby was 1:43.46. Friesan Fire returned $6.40 to his supporters for the win.
The impressive performance boosts Friesan Fire’s lifetime earnings to over $600,000 with over $500,00 of that total in the form of all important graded stakes earnings. He’s essentially a lock as of right now for the Kentucky Derby this May. The win also allowed the son of A.P. Indy (Seattle Slew) to complete the sweep of the LeComte (Grade 3) and the Risen Star (Grade 3) to go along with the Louisiana Derby.
If America is looking for a new Derby favorite….why not this guy? He’s becoming the Chris Carter of the 3-year-old division. All he does is win races. And he’s improving. Perhaps it’s high time he’s earned a respected position amongst the Derby contenders.
Hats off to Larry Jones and Gabriel Saez. If I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again – the most formidable human connection battery in the U.S. when it comes to 3-year-old stakes races. I was lucky enough to have each of them in the Road to the Roses fantasy challenge.
Will we see Friesan Fire again before the Kentucky Derby? I’m not so sure. Jones is a patient fellow and may prefer to take his time now that his entry is assured. I’d expect him to ship well in advance of the Derby to get some works in over the track at Churchill. He trained extremely well at Fair Grounds prior to his recent victories. If he shows signs of taking to the Churchill dirt, he will warrant serious attention in the Derby.
It’s also worth noting that while Papa Clem was fading late, he did manage to hold on for place, which means that the two recent California shippers that had recent experience against Pioneer of the Nile have run 1, 2 in the Gotham and the Louisiana Derby, respectively.
The past few nights have been rather hectic as I’ve raced home from work and immersed myself in the yearly right of passage that is making my stable selections for the Road to the Roses fantasy challenge. Ten horses, 2 trainers, and 2 jockeys – that’s what you pick. You amass points by finishing in the money in major prep races over the better part of 3 months. I can’t say I’ve had a lot of success with it, but I’m learning from my past and trying out new things in an effort to win the top glory that comes with having a winning stable.
I’ve named mine “The Aspiring Horseplayer” so that it’s connected with this blog. Last year I believe I was “Stafford Stables”, but those responsible for the nightmare that turned into late in the challenge have been sacked (and those responsible for sacking those who have been sacked have also been sacked, and so on). I started out well, but in the end was way too California heavy in ’08, with Colonel John, Georgie Boy, El Gato Malo, and Gayego. No way I’m making that mistake this year.
Let’s start with the difficult part. I’m not taking the horse that I believe would win the Derby if it were run today: Vineyard Haven. I know that seems counter intuitive, but there’s a solid strategic reason for this. He’s prepping in Dubai at the moment, and probably won’t get his first opportunity to earn points for my stable until the UAE Derby on 3/28. That is a Grade 2 (worth 12 points for a win), but there should be a “supplemental draft” after the first month of the contest, granting me a chance to swipe him after 3/14 as one of up to 3 additional runners I can add to my stable. I’ll take the wait and see approach for now as I’ll need the potential for points from those limited stable positions.
I’m also not taking Stardom Bound, despite being a fairly big “Stardom Bound guy.” I think the world of her, but the fact that she’ll be taking on the likes of Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse, and only IF she stays on the Derby trail (which is by no means a foregone conclusion) means that I”ll have to pass on her for now as well.
The top 5 picks for the stable are essentially a player’s “Simon Peter” – the rock, the foundation upon which the rest of the franchise is built. For my top five, I’m taking Old Fashioned, Pioneer of the Nile, Friesan Fire, Patena, and Captain Candyman Can. I did not arrive at this grouping without much debate, however. The first three were “no brainers” in my opinion, especially with Old Fashioned pointed towards a very reachable win right out of the gate in the Southwest Stakes on Saturday. Likewise Pioneer of the Nile seems pointed now towards the San Felipe on 3/14 (just before the supplemental draft period) and the Santa Anita Derby after that. Friesan Fire has simply done nothing wrong and everything right. Patena and Captain Candyman Can are risks though. Patena might be Rick Dutrow and IEAH’s “A horse” judging from recent comments. That said, he’s still a largely unknown and unproven colt. Captain Candyman Can could be a one turn horse, but then again the Fountain of Youth has been shortened in distance, so keep that in mind.
The name of this game is about racking up points and keeping as many runners with real chances of finding the winners circle each week as you can. I mentioned that I wasn’t covering as many California runners, and that I wasn’t going to play Stardom Bound (at least not yet). You may notice from below that another name is missing. The Pamplemousse. Why? Well , for starters he’s probably really only a safe play as of right now for the G3 Sham on 2/28. While that would be some nice early points to rack up, I’m not sure how much of a threat he’d be against Pioneer and Stardom Bound if he tried the SA Derby. Besides, like I said, I’m going CA light this year.
The bottom of my stable is a place to take some shots. You don’t want to get too cray here as you’ll need to depend on most (if not all) of the horses you select, but things get interesting when you get to this level of the rankings. Haynesfield sticks out as an obvious play for the NY preps (G3 Gotham, G1 Wood Memorial), but he’s probably not the lock folks think he is. I think you have to cover him, as he’s been very impressive beating suspect quality, but I don’t think you can stand on him alone for those preps, and the Wood is a G1 you definitely want to hit. For that reason, I’m taking Mr. Fantasy as well. He’s got two impressive Beyers and looks like a horse that could give Haynesfield fits as the distances continue to challenge the talented Speightstown colt. As if that weren’t enough, I’m also going to cover the new edition to Rick Dutrow’s barn, Danger to Society. Originally I was not high on this guy, but I’m taking the advice of author and journalist Richard Eng, who won this contest a few years ago. If he’s good enough for him to take a stand on, he’s good enough for me. Coincidentally, another friend of this site, Cindy Pierson-Dulay, is also listed as one of the pros. I’ve got to admit, it feels pretty cool when folks listed as pros are people you’ve actually met and talked about horse racing with. Hats off to each of them.
I’ll round out my stable with the impressive runner up finisher Flying Pegasus, who looks like a horse that will improve greatly next out with a more favorable post position. I may be overrating this guy, but if so it would appear to be a mistake that many are making. He’s probably(along with Patena) the biggest “buzz” horse at the moment I’m seeing whispered in Facebook discussions and horse racing boards. We’ll see. I’ll take a stab with my 9th slot on him since he is pointing to either the Fountain of Youth or Louisiana Derby (or perhaps the Rebel). My last slot will go to Hello Broadway, who but for what in my opinion was a far from perfect ride from Edgar Prado, might have defeated Captain Candyman Can in the Hutcheson. I’m willing to give him another try as he seemed a worth favorite before fading late in the stretch.
I’m taking Rick Dutrow and Larry Jones as my trainers. Strange, I know, for someone who isn’t the biggest Dutrow fan in the world, but the man seems loaded with talent this year. Ditto for Larry Jones, who figures to go out on top with his first Derby win. If there’s a sense of justice in the universe for what befell the man last year, he’ll be the champion this year.
Jockey wise I’m going with Gabriel Saez and Garrett Gomez. Saez because I feel when teamed up with Larry Jones makes the most formidable tandem in the country with 3-year-olds, and Go-Go because, well, he’s Garrett Gomez. Need I really say more?
Hopefully you are all playing along as well. If you’re interested in joining the TBA League, contact Handride and he’ll send you the activation code. Or you could join our small, but growing Facebook group. Yes, we have a presence on Facebook. Just head to our homepage and follow the links to the Facebook group. I can picture myself dancing like Dr. Evil when I say that. “What? I’m hip. I’m cool.” 
Stardom Bound powers through the stretch to win the G1 Las Virgenes at Santa Anita
This Saturday marked perhaps the biggest day on the 2009 Kentucky Derby trail so far this year, and was (in my opinion) the most exciting day in racing since the Breeders’ Cup last October. Four horses took major steps forward, including Haynesfield, Pioneer of the Nile, Stardom Bound, and Friesan Fire.
Stardom Bound may well have rocketed herself all the way to the top of many Derby contender lists with her dominating performance in the Grade 1 Las Virgenes at Santa Anita. The daughter of Tapit race behind the field for much of the early going as the Doug O’Neill runner Pinkarella got away quickly with the lead. As the field turned for home Stardom Bound was desperately seeking running room, which opened up for her to the outside just as they entered the stretch. From there on out it was her class on display as she sized them and up and gunned them down in her typical warrior-like fashion.
Saucey Evening made a race of it for her by making her earn each step along the way throughout most of the stretch, but Stardom Bound was never in question. Eventually she pulled away from Saucey Evening, who wound up being nipped by Haka at the wire for place.
Stardom Bound has yet to run on true dirt, and until we see her on the conventional surface it will be hard to get a true read on her potential to win a race like the Derby, but this much is certain; if she enters in the Santa Anita Derby this April, she will have a huge shot to dominate. I’m hoping she gets a dirt prep somewhere in between. She reminds me quite a bit of Zenyatta with her determination to win and her running style. The only hurdles left for her in California are to beat the top 3-year-old boys, namely Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse.
Pioneer of the Nile wins a thriller in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita
Speaking of Pioneer of the Nile, the Empire Maker colt continued to solidify his status as top 3-year-old male on the California circuit (with all due respect to The Pamplemousse and Chocolate Candy) by prevailing in a thrilling rendition of the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita. He’s already racked up more than enough earnings to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, so up next is anyone’s guess. Might he ship south and east (or even north) looking for a dirt prep? Or will he stick around to tackle Stardom Bound in the Santa Anita Derby in April?
Brother Keith got away early on in the Robert B. Lewis but was not able to hold on. I want Revenge and Papa Clem both looked impressive along with Bittel Road in running well late, but none of them could hold of a dominating wide run down the center of the track by Pioneer of the Nile. Pioneer’s late stretch burst clearly separates him from the other impressive runners of the race. It really looked to me at the top of the stretch that I Want Revenge was going to run away with this one, but Pioneer of the Nile had something to say about that. Don’t sleep on Bittel Road and Papa Clem – these guys ran BIG races today and could turn out to be very useful horses later on.
Perhaps the most impressive performance of the day, however, was one I do not have a youtube clip available to share. Friesan Fire was absolutely brilliant in taking the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Sent off as the second choice behind Giant Oak, he patiently waited for his moment to strike and then gunned down Flying Pegasus (who also looked noteworthy) to prevail, capturing his second major Derby prep this year having won the Lecomte last month.
The win gives trainer Larry Jones and jockey Gabriel Saez, the same tandem that met with tragedy last year with the filly Eight Belles, a legitimate contender for the Kentucky Derby. The way Friesan Fire pulled away in the stretch and the fact that it was on true dirt really make this son of A.P. Indy one to pay close attention to. It’ll be anyone’s guess who might be favored in the next Kentucky Derby future wagers pool. Will it be Stardom Bound? Friesan Fire? Perhaps a colt like Old Fashioned? Any way you slice it those three should be at or near the top slots in everyone’s Derby watch lists now.
What’s that? Feel a segue coming on? You guys know my style too well. Yes indeed, without further adieu, here’s my read on the ever confusing Derby trail scene:
1. Stardom Bound - Still need to see her on dirt, but she’s got “it”, whatever “it” is. Likely pointing to the SA Derby in April.
2. Old Fashioned - There will be a tendency to rank others higher as we live in a “what have you done for me lately” world, but don’t forget what this guy did in the Remsen. Another big threat for trainer Larry Jones.
3. Friesan Fire - Larry Jones has colts going 2, 3 on this list. Friesan Fire’s big run in the stretch of the Risen Star solidifies his placement on this list. He’s chewing up the competition in Louisiana and will likely stay through the LA Derby next month.
4. Vineyard Haven – to be honest, I’d still bet this guy on top if the Derby were run tomorrow, so it’s hard to rank him effectively. As long as he stays overseas he’ll continue to slide, but if he shows up stateside again and gives an indication of being his former self, watch out.
5. Pioneer of the Nile – it’s always hard to rank the California colts effectively since the synthetic surfaces went into place, but this guy continues to improve. He’s an Empire Maker colt, so distance and dirt should be well within his reach. His late stretch burst in the Robert B. Lewis to outgun Papa Clem, Bittel Road, and I Want Revenge makes it impossible to drop him down the list. Would prefer to see him on dirt though before ranking higher. That may seem contradictory to my ranking of Stardom Bound, but as it stands I’d expect her to beat “Pioneer if they faced off in the Santa Anita Derby.
6. Captain Candyman Can - not one of the more household names on the list, but that’s because he’s been running down south and not getting the glory of horses out west. He took the Hutcheson at Gulfstream last out and would appear to be a serious contender. We’ll find out a lot more about this guy in the next month.
7. Chocolate Candy – here’s a runner I’m not entirely sure what to do with. About a month ago I was ready to write him off as a plodder when he wasn’t moving as well as I’d have liked in the stretch of the Cash Call. Then he went up north to Golden Gate and turned in a good stakes win over (edit) the tapeta. That win makes him more of a known quality from a KY Derby perspective, but when matched up over synthetics against the main CA competition he’s seemed a cut below. Of course, the KY Derby isn’t run on synthetics, so all of that might be a moot point.
8. The Pamplemousse – another California runner who is difficult to rank. You could interchange this one with Pioneer of the Nile. I just prefer Pioneer’s “killer instinct” a bit more. Pamplemousse could wind up as Stardom Bound’s main rival in the Santa Anita Derby this April if they each point that way. Up next could be the Sham later this month.
9. Haynesfield – he continues to dominate 3-year-olds in New York, as evidenced by his win in the Whirlaway yesterday, but we still don’t really know how he stacks up against the better runners in Florida, Louisiana, and California. We might not find out until the Wood Memorial.
10. Midshipman – I’m not going to sleep on this guy and am not ready to take him off this list. I know we likely won’t see him again until the Derby (if even then), but I’m still banking on the way he finished his 2-year-old campaign as reason enough to consider him in this top 10 list….until someone else runs impressive enough to make me forget about him.
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