Derby Rankings: Hot Shots! Part Deux

9 03 2010

With less than 2 months to go before the famed “run for the roses” in the 2010 Kentucky Derby, it’s time to once again put pen to paper in what figures to be another futile attempt to make some sense of the contenders we’ve seen thus far.  The weekend past was a tale of two emotions: “Twas the best of times, twas the worst of times.”  We watched the emergence of a star-in-the-making in Awesome Act’s powerful Gotham performance.  Then we watched in disbelief as Blind Luck failed to catch Crisp at the wire in the Santa Anita Oaks, despite running her heart out in the stretch.

The defeat of Blind Luck means that I had to drop her off my Derby rankings list, especially since I only go 10 deep in the actual rankings.  I still think she’s as good as the top 10 colts around, and would expect a rebound next time out.  Real estate, however, becomes precious with so little time ahead.  The loss all but assures that if she travels to Churchill Downs, it will be to run in the Oaks rather than the Derby.  Personally, I’ll be holding out hope that she throttles the Oaks field and then points for the Preakness or Belmont.  A guy can wish, can’t he?

As for Awesome Act’s performance, let’s just say that heading into post he looked like a million bucks. I had advised playing against him in our selections for the Gotham that morning, but once anyone got a look at him in the post parade, it’s hard to imagine they didn’t have a fairly good idea of what was about to happen.  I wound up posting on Twitter that “if he runs as good as he looks, the Gotham might be over already.”

Sure enough, it was.

The weekend ahead figures to be equally as compelling.  The San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby, and the Rebel await.  Of course, the most important “prep” races happening this weekend aren’t likely to involve 3-year-olds.  The return of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra in the New Orleans Ladies and that of 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic champion Zenyatta in the Santa Margarita will be the biggest shows in town, and rightly so.  And just in time to start breaking out the grills and go exploring this vast expanse we’ve not seen for many months, formerly buried in snow, that locals refer to as “outside.”

Yes, there’s much to be excited about this time of year.  With that in mind, let’s take a look at the updated rankings of the contenders for the 2010 Kentucky Derby.

1. Eskendereya

No change at the top spot.  Todd Pletcher’s  son of Giant’s Causeway catapulted to the top of many Derby watch lists after his dominating performance in the Fountain of Youth.  Up next will be the Florida Derby.  At first I didn’t think I’d keep him on top for long, but now it’s starting to seem like it will take a pretty big performance in one of the Grade 1 preps to knock him from this position.  I’ve warmed to him.  He’s a legitimate #1 on such lists based on what we’ve seen from the crop overall.

2. Odysseus

A wise man once told me to always remember the horse you rode in on.  All kidding aside, I’m typically loyal to a fault, and this may well be another fait accompli for yours truly.  There was something Curlin-esque about this colt when I first saw him in a replay against allowance runners at Tampa Bay.  On the surface, he’s done nothing that warrants this aggressive a ranking, having not earned a single dollar of the all-important graded stakes money he’ll need to secure a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby on May 1st.  That being said, he’s slated to take on Super Saver and others in the Tampa Bay Derby.  If he’s anywhere near the horse I think he is, we’ll see it this weekend.  I’m trusting my gut on this one.  I think this is a race horse here, and a pretty darn good one at that.

3.  Lookin at Lucky

If he had stayed in California and not tried the dirt in any of his prep races, I was ready to keep ‘Lucky out of my top 3 positions all season long.  Now that Bob Baffert seems committed to having Lucky try the dirt in the Rebel, I’m interpreting the decision as a confident, bold move by a trainer who thinks he may have something special.  I applaud the decision by Baffert.  The synthetic-to-dirt angle was huge for several runners prepping for the Derby last season, and if not for the freak injury to I Want Revenge, may have been one of the primary story lines about last year’s Derby winner.  Ironically, in a round about way and due to his initial races at Woodbine, the synthetic-to-dirt angle did ultimately factor into the victory of 50/1 longshot Mine That Bird.  Many people that I trust insist this is a special horse.  If he wins big on the dirt in the Rebel against what figures to be a salty field, Eskendereya could have some company at the top of the list.  Also note that ‘Lucky will be wearing a hood for the first time as Baffert tries the blinkers-on approach.

4. Awesome Act

I struggled with where to properly rank the overnight sensation that has invaded our shores from across the pond.  Looked sensational prior to the Gotham and then ran like a horse that meant serious business.  Was the Gotham the toughest race we’ve ever seen?  Absolutely not, and there’s no question he’ll get tested by better horses in his next starts, but the point I’m focusing on his how “much the best” he was.  This guy is a legitimate Derby contender, and he’s got a jockey in Julien Leparoux that you just knew was going to wind up on a big time contender sooner or later.  Full disclosure?  Though I advocated playing against him in the Gotham, he’s probably my 2nd favorite on this list behind Odysseus.

5. Caracortado

I keep thinking of former Eagles and Vikings wide receiver Cris Carter whenever I think of this horse.  “All he does is win horse races.” Now that Lookin at Lucky has shipped east to Arkansas for the Rebel, “Scarface” finds himself the top dog in California at the moment.  I expected him to challenge Lucky if he had remained in California, and it looks like he should have a much easier time now if they chose to keep him local.  It’ll be hard to rank a horse higher until we see them on dirt, but this guy is a proven winner and figures to remain so for the foreseeable future.

If Cris Carter had been a thoroughbred, all he'd do is win horse races.

6. Rule

Probably the horse who suffers the most from the “what have you done for me lately?” syndrome that bloggers like me are self-described masters at.  Todd Pletcher’s run away winner of the Sam F. Davis will likely point to the Wood or the Florida Derby.  Considering Eskendereya is likely Florida Derby bound, my money would be on the Wood as his final destination.

7. Discreetly Mine

The most difficult of the ubiquitous Pletcher clan to put a finger on.  Folks either love him or hate him.  I think he beat 3 quality horses in Ron the Greek, Tempted to Tapit, and Drosselmeyer in the Risen Star.  Up next is likely the Louisiana Derby.  I’m still not sure if he’ll want 10 furlongs, or if he’ll be able to rate effectively, but if he answers positively to both of those questions he’s certainly talented enough to be a factor in the Derby.  In keeping with the theme of discretion in this horse’s name, I’ll confide that I sneakily swapped positions with Rule and Discreetly Mine since our initial rankings were published.

8. Dublin

Sort of an odd addition to the list considering he didn’t race this past weekend and was defeated in his most recent start.  Why the vertical move up my list then?  I toyed with ranking the 1st and 2nd place finishers of the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park in this spot.  The winner, Conveyance, does not appear to be pointing to any local races though, while the place horse, Dublin, will now get to run into yet another Bob Baffert monster in Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel.  I thought Dublin might’ve been the best horse in the Southwest, both before and after the race was run.  Could give Lucky some fits in the Rebel.

9. Conveyance

Another of the Cris Carter type runners that simply goes out and wins races.  The undefeated son Indian Charlie opened his career out west with victories that included the Grade 3 San Rafael on January 16.  The victory in the Southwest at Oaklawn proved he could handle the conventional dirt.  Isn’t that the knock we horseplayers always use on west coast horses until they come east?  Okay, so now that he’s bested that challenge, what next?  Well, thanks to Baffert sending Lookin at Lucky to Oaklawn for the Rebel, Conveyance has seemingly been officially relegated to “plan B” status.  He’ll be headed to the Sunland Park Derby for his next start if current indications prove true.

10.  Sidney’s Candy

I maintain that this could be any kind of horse.  The sensational winner of the San Vicente was at one point rumored to be considering the Gotham at Aqueduct.  Obviously that didn’t happen, and it appears the son of Candy Ride may be the best remaining challenger for Caracortado out of the California crop for the moment while Lucky visits the south.

Others to watch:

I’m keeping my eyes on several horses, including those we mentioned in our initial rankings like Dave in Dixie, Jackson Bend, Buddy’s Saint, Drosselmeyer, and Ron the Greek.  I guess you could add Alphie’s Bet to that list following his performance in the Sham.

One horse you may notice I haven’t mentioned yet is Super Saver.  I know many are extremely high on him and one might think that fresh off of the experience of publicly doubting Awesome Act I might be inclined to be accepting of such highly touted horses, but my thoughts remain that I need to see something for 2010 from this horse before I add him to the list.

Guess what?  He gets a chance to prove that to you and me this weekend, so the wait won’t be long.  It just so happens it’s my boy Odysseus he’s running against, and it goes without saying where my heart will be in that race.  Hopefully my wallet doesn’t follow with reckless abandon.


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Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail

March Thoroughbred Madness

4 03 2010

Living on the east coast, the impending weekend is probable cause for outright celebration.  For the first time since any of us can remember (seeming to harken back to mystic days of yore that only the oldest of old timers here can recall with any lucid vividity), the weekend forecast is not rife with winter storm warnings, blizzard predictions, or record snowfall accumulation already on the ground.  At long last, my friends, the great winds of Spring change have begun to blow!

Ah, yes – the Ides of March will soon be upon us in less than two weeks time.  That wild, unpredictable, whirlwind time of year where Caesars are felled and aspiring young horses get that extra tap of the whip to let them know “get going, buddy, it’s showtime.”

True to form, it appears that March may be entering like a lion for our friends near the California racetracks.  For them I can only offer the solace that comes with knowing that the arrival of Spring heralds the approaching bloom of everything from majestic Oaks to Apple Blossoms.  Yes, good people – there is reason to rejoice!

For those 3-year-olds still hoping to secure enough earnings to cement a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May, however,  it’s starting to become desperation time.  Little room for error is afforded the contestants.  One false move, one bad race – and the whole dream can be over before it ever really began.

Two primary opportunities are available to such hopefuls this weekend, with the Gotham at Aqueduct and the rescheduled Sham at Santa Anita (Grade 3′s both..with the rescheduled Sham perhaps in danger of being rescheduled yet again.  More on that in a moment).

That’s right – this weekend New York, at least, will get to stamp it’s place on the Derby trail.  One can almost hear Jay-Z and Alicia Keys being queued up in the background, in perhaps the most overplayed refrain of the year:

“Let’s hear it for New York!  These streets will make you feel brand new.  Big lights will inspire you…”

(Hey, that’s still better than R. Kelly’s insufferable “Gotham City”)

I wonder if that Jay-Z tune is playing on any of the horse’s iPods as they train in the morning and prepare for the big race ahead?

The Gotham (Grade 3) – Aqueduct – 1 1/16 miles (5:12 ET)

  1. Three Day Rush (4/1)
  2. Yawanna Twist (5/1)
  3. Nacho Friend (8/1)
  4. Awesome Act (7/2*)
  5. I’ve Got The Fever (12/1)
  6. Peppi Knows (10/1)
  7. Shrimp Dancer (12/1)
  8. Turf Melody (8/1)
  9. Afleet Again (20/1)
  10. Wow Wow Wow (6/1)

Tepid morning line favoritism has been bestowed upon trainer Jeremy Noseda’s entry AWESOME ACT, who will pick up the services of jockey Julien Leparoux.   The son of Awesome Again will be making his dirt debut, which might be reason to give some bettors pause before accepting low odds.  We know he can win on turf, and he certainly closed well in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf when bested by Pounced, Bridgetown, and Interactif.  What worries me is that there’s not a lot of workout information to suggest he will prefer the dirt, and the other angle I like to consider (versatility on multiple surfaces) for runners making such a move doesn’t appear very promising either, having finished 3rd in a field of 5 in his only synthetic start.  If he makes a good post parade impression I may be enticed, but for now I’m passing.

Everything trainer Todd Pletcher touches has turned to gold lately, so it seems a no brainer that THREE DAY RUSH has to be considered a player in this race at 4/1 second choice on the morning line.  That being said, he was third behind two of today’s rivals last out in the Whirlaway.  Two races back he was able to wire a field (like all other Pletcher runners, it seems) at the Allowance level at Gulstream Park.  I expect this horse to take serious play at the windows, and he should be a factor, but once again I’ll side against conventional wisdom as I’m a bit worried that the colt’s only wins have come sprinting at the 6 furlong distance.

Which brings me to PEPPI KNOWS, a solid 10/1 choice on the morning line.  I don’t expect to get odds that favorable come post time, but hopefully he’s still a decent price on the board.  The son of Stephen Got Even might be due to bounce back to earth, but note that his effort 2 back was a game 2nd to the once highly heralded Buddy’s Saint.   His running lines suggest he’s a horse that knows how to win, and that it will take a pretty good horse to beat him.  I’m going to make him my top choice here.

Another runner I think has a big chance here at very favorable odds is AFLEET AGAIN.  I almost had to do a double take when I saw the 20/1.  If you like PEPPI KNOWS at all at 10/1, don’t you have to like AFLEET AGAIN at double those odds?  The son of Afleet Alex has been working well for this effort, and if he and jockey Kendrick Carmouche can get some mojo working this weekend, they just might have a shot at the winner’s circle.

Then of course there’s my old pal Rick Dutrow and his entry, YAWANNA TWIST.  The son of Yonaguska has won back to back races to start his career sprinting at Aqueduct.  You know better than to discount a Dutrow horse running in New York…don’t you?

Selections:

  • #6 Peppi Knows (10/1)
  • # 9 Afleet Again (20/1)
  • # 1 Three Day Rush (4/1)

I’ll add in YAWANNA TWIST and AWESOME ACT to the exotic plays.  Ditto for TURF MELODY since he is a Graham Motion horse (I always play Graham’s horses – just a personal preference since he’s my favorite horsemen).

The Sham (Grade 3) – Santa Anita- 1 1/8 miles (5:12 ET)

  1. Marcello
  2. The Program
  3. Outlaw Man
  4. El Mirage King
  5. Boulder Creek
  6. Kettle River
  7. Setsuko
  8. Wolf Tail
  9. Nextdoorneighbor
  10. Alphie’s Bet

Note: Odds were not yet available as of this writing, but will be updated once they are set.

Remember all that talk of Spring being upon us at the top of this post?  Well, the beautiful weather that typically personifies Southern California this time of year might be only a figment of our imaginations this weekend, with heavy rains anticipated and a possible second rescheduling of Saturday’s Sham Stakes.  For now, we’ll proceed along the path of “ignorance being bliss” as those of us about to break the 50 degree threshold on the thermometer for the first time this decade gallivant around unaware (blissfully, again) of the fact our friends on the opposite coast may be being dumped on this weekend.

The Sham looks like a relatively evenly matched race on paper, but the two horses most will be anxious to see are KETTLE RIVER and THE PROGRAM.   That being said, I think there are some interesting “shots” worth taking a look at here, including SETSUKO and OUTLAW MAN.

We’ll start with the obvious.  KETTLE RIVER comes out of back to back victories over maidens and allowance foes.  The son of Congaree gives trainer Eoin Harty (of Colonel John fame) a runner that at least some folks I know are buzzing about as a possible Derby horse.  We’ll see if he’s got what it takes this weekend in his first graded stakes try.  Like so many of his generation, he’s lightly raced and still have plenty of room for improvement.  His recent workouts might not be off-the-charts, but if you go back to January 25th at Hollywood, he seems to have shown a little “something, something.”  I respect this guys chances in here enough to make him my top overall pick.

THE PROGRAM is more front running son of Harlan’s Holiday heading out for the always dangerous Bob Baffert barn.  If they let him get loose on the lead he could give them fits, but it’s worth noting he was no match for KETTLE RIVER following a wide trip two races back.  More forgiving handicappers will point to the 4th place finish behind Lookin at Lucky (beaten 1 1/2 lengths) last December.  He’s a player in this race for sure, but seems to me the type that needs to have a few breaks go his way (such as the head bob at the wire in his victory last out over Indian Firewater), and that might be playing with fire this time around.

If you’re looking for a price on the board, what about OUTLAW MAN?  Bettors tend to shy away from horses who take 4 tries to break their maiden and then jump up into the stakes level, but you know that with jockey Garett Gomez aboard, this son of Forest Wildcat will be taking at least some play at the windows.  I like that he’s improving, and that his recent workouts look very impressive (4 furlongs in :46 and change on 3/1, for example).  Also note who he faced in his debut; Winslow Homer.  Remember that guy?  Had he not been hurt, he might be a top contender for the Derby at this point in time.  Suffice to say there are reasons to expect a game performance from this colt.  I don’t think he’s outmatched at all against this field.

SETSUKO is a horse I admittedly knew nothing about until some folks at TVG (namely Matt Carothers) and at the DRF (Brad Free) started talking about him over a month ago.  He seems like a hard trying son of Pleasantly Perfect that, for whatever reason, just hasn’t been able to put it all together and turn in consistent winning races.  He is “right there” though in all of his tries (hence the “hard trying” reference).  I’m not sure why the horse is named Setsuko, as that is a name typically reserved for females in Japanese, but this colt does have two manly positives working in his favor; jockey Rafael Bejarano and trainer Richard Mandella. Consider him an underneath play on your exotics.

NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR could also be a sneaky play in here.  The son of Lido Palace picks up the services of Mike Smith in the irons, thanks at least in part to Bejarano being aboard SETSUKO.  He’s been training his tail off and trainer Mike Machowsky is hitting at a whopping 38% for the year with a limited sample of runners.  Don’t leave this guy off your tickets would be my advice.

Selections:

  • #6 Kettle River
  • #2 The Program
  • #3 Outlaw Man

I’ll also be adding in SETSUKO and NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR underneath to my exotic plays.

Well, that’ll just about do it for our weekend Derby prep races.  Best of luck to all – and be sure to let us know your thoughts on the weekend racing action.


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Categories : Aqueduct, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Santa Anita

I Want Revenge dominating in the Gotham

7 03 2009

 

Jeff Mullins took a big chance shipping I Want Revenge to New York just in time for the Gotham.  We noted him as the “x-factor” in the pre-race handicapping selections, and certainly expected a big performance, but I don’t think anybody was properly prepared for how dominating he would be.  On Saturday jockey Joe Talamo and the talented son of Stephen Got Even (A.P. Indy) absolutely destroyed what appeared to be a competitive field of 3-year-old rivals, including Haynesfield, Mr. Fantasy, and Imperial Council. 

Mr. Fantasy was away quickly and fought to keep a slight lead over I Want Revenge in the early going setting early fractions of  :23.76 and :48.45.   I Want Revenge refused to back down from Mr. Fantasy and gradually wore him down.  At the top of the stretch the two were eyeball to eyeball.  Suddenly I Want Revenge let loose and bolted to the wire, opening up to an 8 1/2 length victory in 1:42.65

See, apparently you can go East and win on the  synthetics-to-dirt angle.  As we continue to absorb the nuances of handicapping synthetic surfaces, one thing seems clear to me.  Horses that run competitively on synthetics seem quite capable of running big on the main dirt tracks.  We saw this last year with Colonel John, and now we’ve seen it again with I Want Revenge. 

The win figures to flatter the Derby prospects of two other California colts; The Pamplemousse and Pioneer of the Nile.  Handicappers will have to rethink where they rank these contenders in light of this successful California invasion.  It’s not a matter of if, but rather when a “synthetic runner” from California will win the Kentucky Derby.   That much is certain. 

I Want Revenge returned $8.30  to his backers for the win.  Imperial Council was up late for place but never really threatened.   Mr. Fantasy held on for show. 

Results Chart

Up next for I Want Revenge would appear to be the Wood Memorial (Grade 1) on April 4 .  The colt now has 2 wins from 7 lifetime starts and has been in-the-money in all of his efforts.


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Categories : Aqueduct, Fantasy Horse Racing, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita

Gotham has many options

6 03 2009

You’ve got to love this time of year.  Here in the Mid Atlantic the weather has turned from an icy snow storm at the dawn of the week to a much needed spring preview with gorgeous 60° temperatures for the weekend.  Once again it’s time to go through the manly ritual of cleaning out the grill and preparing for prime barbecue season.  Ribs, chicken, steak, burgers.  “Meat and fire, baby!”  And nothing goes with a spring barbecue like a meaningful throughoughbred horse race, especially one that could tell us quite a bit about several hopefuls for the 2009 Kentucky Derby.  It’s Take Back Saturday time for sure.  Check that….it’s hyper Take Back Saturday!

The field for the 57th running of the $250,000 Gotham (Grade 3) @ Aqueduct (1 1/16 Miles):

Play along with Past Performances from the Road to the Roses fantasy challenge available here

  1. Naos (M. Luzzi/ T. Pletcher) 20/1
  2. Russell Road (T. Dunkelberger/J. Casey) 20/1
  3. Masala (E. Coa/T. PLetcher) 5/1
  4. Axel Foley (R. Migliore/K. McLaughlin) 15/1
  5. Mr. Fantasy (A. Garcia/K. McLaughlin) 7/2
  6. Haynesfield (C. Lopez/S. Asmussen) 5/1
  7. Imperial Council (R. Maragh/C. McGaughey) 5/2*
  8. I Want Revenge (J. Talamo/J. Mullins) 3/1
  9. Giant Ryan (J. Sanchez/B. Parboo) 50/1

Right away there is a major dilemma for me.  I fully expected Haynesfield to be the chalk favorite here, but apparently the hype surrounding Shug McGaughey’s colt Imperial Council has  reached deeper than I thought.  To be fully honest, I was planning on trying to beat Haynesfield with him.  Now I may have to look elsewhere if the odds hold.  Before we get into that though, let’s run through the horses a bit more thoroughly.

Naos breaks from the inside for trainer Todd Pletcher, who suddenly has a bevy of Derby contenders after appearing to start the year on a down note.  ‘Patient, grasshopper!”  He looks a bit outclassed here though to me.  That being said, take a look at the developmental cycle of the other Lion Heart colt in this race, Masala, and suddenly it’s not difficult to imagine a move forward on the speed figure scales on Saturday.  Trouble is, he’ll have to run by some pretty good horses in the stretch, which might be asking a bit much.  He seems to enjoy the added ground if his last effort at Philly Park is any indication.   Also have to like that he’s at least had some stakes experience.  I could see this horse having brighter days ahead of him.  I’m just not sold yet that Saturday will be one of them.   I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he hit the board though.

Russell Road warrants some mention in this field.  While he seems a class below the rest, there’s not much you can say against a horse who has won 6 consecutive races.  It’s just that those were sprinting further south in West Virginia and Maryland and this is a tough field to face stretching out over a mile for the first time in his career.  He has seemed to run his best races when going the tricky 7 furlong distance.   Still, it looks like he’d need to run the race of his life to win this.  He’s another you’ve got to respect with a chance to hit the board.

Masala.  This guy sure looks live on paper.  Finished second to Take the Points last out and we saw what that one did shipping west on short notice and running second to the Pamplemousse in the Sham.   Todd Pletcher would appear to have another dangerous horse here. .  His speed figures are exciting and if this guy makes a nice appearance it might be worth considering him here.  It seems both of Pletcher’s ‘Lion Hearts’ are looking to take steps forward. The only trouble is….if we’re going to base his chances on the Take the Points angle, then it must be said that The Pamplemousse sort of beat that one for fun in the Sham.  I could go either way with this one.  He’s got a chance here.

Axel Foley.  The Officer colt has been chasing some of the better left coast horses lately in Chocolate Candy and Pioneer of the Nile.  He looks up against it here to me.  Shug knows how to get ‘em turned around though so an improved effort is certainly possible.

Mr. Fantasy is the first of the “big guns” here in post position order.  A win here will rocket the Kiaran McLaughlin trained colt onto many Derby lists.  He’s won big in each of his two starts and has devoured competition at the state-bred maiden and allowance levels.  He’s moving up in class, but could be the controlling speed.  If he’s the colt he’s looked like against lower levels of competition,  than this one could be over before it starts.  The whole question will be what happens with him up front early on.   My guess is this guy can handle the class test and will run well here.

Haynesfield is the talented Speightstown colt who seemingly gets no respect a la Rodney Dangerfield.  He’s at 5/1?  All he’s done is win 4 straight races including the Damon Runyon, the Count Fleet, and the Whirlaway.  What’s a guy gotta do?  The two knocks that have followed this guy wherever he has gone are that he should run into some distance limitations being a Speightstown colt and that he hasn’t really beaten anybody of name or record.  This is obviously his biggest test, so we stand to learn quite a bit about him.  I suspect he’ll take a bit of money at the windows as well, but with the jockey switch from Ramon Dominguez to Lopez, I think there’s reason to take a stand against him this weekend. 

Imperial Council.  Are you kidding me?  Watch how much buzz will surround this horse if he wins the Gotham.  He’s essentially improved in each of his 3 lifetime races and should absolutely love stretching out the added distance of the Gotham.  I like his foundation, and you’ve get a feeling that he could be the best of the Empire Maker contenders for the Derby.  He’s going to have to earn it though, and that will mean running down both Haynesfield and Mr. Fantasy.  I’ll be honest and repeat that he is my top selection here overall, but if the odds aren’t right there are reasons to consider taking a stand against him.  His workouts would suggest he’s ready to run a big one and this colt could well be in top form right now.  Eye him up in the post parade and decide how you feel about the odds.  And yes, Mike from NY, you know I can’t cover an Empire Maker without thinking of you, buddy. 

I Want Revenge is the x-factor horse here.  He ships in on short notice from California with hotshot jockey Joe Talamo aboard.  This is almost the exact reverse of what we saw with Take the Points heading west in the Sham last week, and the result might turn out to be the same.  I absolutely loved how this horse chased Pioneer of the Nile the last two races.  Visually they were impressive performance despite the lower speed figures.  Jeff Mullins wouldn’t ship him all the way out here if he didn’t think he had a big chance.  I’m just not sure I like him at 3/1.   I actually expected the odds on he and Haynesfield to be reversed and this will be interesting to see where horseplayers wind up.   As I often say, I definitely like the synthetic to dirt angle more than the other way around, and I prefer the west to east angle more so than vice versa.  I think he hits the board and must be given a chance here.  Here’s the intriguing thing with him.  If he does run big, and if he were to win here, how might folks feel differently about the odds of The Pamplemousse, Pioneer of the Nile, and perhaps Stardom Bound come the first Saturday in May? 

Giant Ryan….are you kidding me?  Pass.

I’m going to go down to the wire here on my choices, and odds will likely influence the final wagers.  I think Mr. Fantasy and Imperial Council are the top two in this field, but Haynesfield, I Want Revenge, and Masala could all pull it off as well.  It really just comes down to who you like the most.  Mr. Fantasy could well wind up being the play, but for now I’ll stick to my guns and select Imperial Council for the win. 

From a superfecta standpoint I think you can use Mr. Fantasy, Haynesfield, I Want Revenge, Masala, Russell Road, and Naos as underneath possibilities.   Without the benefit of the post parade I’d play Masala, Haynesfield, and Mr. Fantasy in place.  I’d toss in I Want Revenge, Rusell Road, and Naos for the bottom spots of the ticket. 

$.10 Superfecta:  7/3,5,6/1,2,3,5,6,8/1,2,3,5,6,8 ($6.00)

Best of luck to all.  If you’re crusing around the web this weekend, do stop over on our TBA homepage and pay a visit.  We always appreciate the traffic.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail


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