Belmont Selections

10 06 2011

Race 6: Grade 1 TVG Acorn

I Want My TVG

The TVG Acorn was placed at the front of the Pick 6 sequence, and this would appear to be at least partially due to the presence of  #2 Turbulent Descent.  The daughter of Congrats is 5 for 6 lifetime, losing only to Zazu last February (whom she promptly returned to defeat next out).  She won’t offer much value at 3/5, but she looks like a worthy favorite and would figure to be very tough to defeat in this race.  She’ll be a single on many Pick 6 tickets and for good reason.  Fellow handicapper Derek Simon has made a few counterpoints regarding the Acorn that are worth checking out, so for those of us singling on the heavy chalk we may find ourselves in Dire Straits attempting to get our money from nothing and our bets for free.

#4 It’s Tricky could be an interesting choice, assuming you are comfortable drawing a line through that last effort in the Gulfstream Oaks.  I think she may be a better horse than either #1 Her Smile or #3 Savvy Supreme, even if the latter can control things from the front end.   All of this sets up what appears to be a very chalky opening to the stakes exotics for the day, so why not spice things up a bit by adding in the longshot of the field underneath at 10/1?  #5 Victoria’s Wildcat is only a neck away from reeling off 4 straight wins since switching to the dirt, and has progressed through the Grade 3 ranks in the process.  She’s improving, has worked well, and at 10/1 I think she’s worth a shot in the underneath slots.

Exacta: 2/4,5

Trifecta: 2/4,5/3,4,5

Race 7: Grade 2 True North Handicap

If (like me) you consider chestnuts to be the most striking of thoroughbreds, the Grade 2 True North is the race for you with 6 of 8 horses sporting the dapper reddish-brown hue.  The formidable coupled entry of Anthony Dutrow runners breaking from the inside and outside (chestnuts both) have earned slight morning line favoritism at 2/1 and would appear to be logical horses you’d have to cover on the exotics.  #1 D’funnybone is best going another furlong, and #1A This Ones For Phil, while very fast, is lightly raced in the last year and a half.  I don’t think they can be considered slam dunks and I’ll make an attempt to beat them in my exacta/trifecta plays.

#3 Trappe Shot (also a chestnut) for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is my top choice here.  The son of Tapit was 2nd in the G1 Haskell last summer while routing, and has been dangerous on this track and at the distance.  I still think he could have a future going 2 turns as well, but for now the connections seem content on sprinting.  I’ll also take a chance with multiple G3 winner #5 Calibrachoa (not a chestnut) on top in search of slightly greater value.  He’s won four straight before the recent break but will have to bring his best to win this.  #2 Wildcat Brief (another chestnut) could round things out rolling late for and underneath placement.

Exacta: 3,5/1,3,5  

Trifecta: 3,5/1,3,5/1,2,3,5

Race 7: Grade 2 Woody Stephens

There is no Woody Stephens, only Zuul!!!

Looking over the Woody Stephens field, I couldn’t help but remember the line in Ghostbusters just before the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man lumbered his way on screen.  ”The traveller has been chosen!”  That would seem to be a fitting euphemism for this year’s race, given the names of  two logical win candidates in this field.  Unfortunately, they are the top choices on the morning line.

#1 Travellin Man cuts back to the 7 furlong distance that he prevailed at in the G2 Swale.  Of particular interest for this race is his propensity to finish ahead of #6 Little Drama in two of his recent starts (though also note he was defeated by #7 J J’s Lucky Train last out).

James Jerkens will send out #5 Arch Traveller, who made a significant speed figure improvement in his last start over the Belmont dirt.  Bounce players may be looking for a regression, but the son of Sky Mesa has won his last three races that did not include the likes of Dialed In or Shackleford.  We’ll go ahead and make him top selection for now, but will keep a close eye on the tote board to see which travel-themed entry gives us the best value.

As for #6 Little Drama, like the name implies he is capable of making things interesting, but he seems more likely to settle for an underneath placement.   A horse that might be being overlooked here is the outside runner #7 J J’s Lucky Train.  As previously noted , he’s finished ahead of the favorite in the last effort, and has also beaten another of today’s rivals, #2 Justin Phillip (who is still seeking his first stakes victory).  I’ll be adding this one to my exotics and hoping for a possible price.

Exacta: 1,5/1,5,6,7

Trifecta: 1,5/1,5,7/1,5,6,7

 Pick 4 (Races 8 through 11): 1,5,7/1,2,5/4,7 /1,5,6,9,12

Race 9: Grade 1 Just A Game

Outside of the contentious feature race of the day, the Just A Game may be the best betting race of the sequence.  It’s certainly among the most difficult to decipher.  Many times handicappers will search for a key race to serve as a barometer when measuring closely ranked contenders.  While we don’t have that here, we do have what might be considered a key horse, as 6 of the 9 runners show a recent tilt against Never Retreat, with varying degrees of success.

Morning line favoritism has been awarded to #2 Aviate, who skipped over the Churchill surface on Derby day to win her first U.S. race (losing her U.S. debut to, you guessed it, Never Retreat).  The Churchill turf was listed as firm that day, but I think there was a little give in the ground and this daughter of Dansili would likely enjoy a little moisture if the heavens decide to open up.  She has trained over the Belmont turf within the last week and certainly is a serious contender you have to respect in the exotics, but as far as single race wagers go this race looks competitive enough to try and beat her at a price.

#1 Gypsy’s Warning heads out for trainer Graham Motion after a very disappointing 7th place finish in the G2 Jenny Wiley in mid-April.  Perhaps she just wasn’t fond of the Keeneland grass?  If you draw a line through that race, she’s a Grade 1 winner at the mile distance, although that was out at Hollywood.  A win for Graham Motion here would be totally mag (gypsy for magnificent), and 5/1 is a fair price in my opinion.   The rest of the field has taken turns beating each other and competing with Never Retreat, making them very difficult to separate beyond these top two.

I thought #5 Strike The Bell was a little interesting here at 12/1 with the always dangerous Ramon Dominguez aboard.  The daughter of Mizzen Mast seems to run her best at the mile distance and seems to do okay on the Belmont turf.  #6 Fantasia and #4 C.S. Silk are also logical contenders at decent odds.  #3 Amen Hallelujah is a near lock to hit the board, but I can’t play to her win as she hasn’t prevailed since last February.

Exacta: 1,2,5 (box)

Trifecta: 1/2,3,5/2,3,4,5,6,7

Race 10: Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap 

There’s a decidedly royal theme when looking over the field for the The Manhattan – which is fitting for a race marking the return of the U.S. turf king #4 Gio Ponti.  Gio will have to overcome the much ballyhooed Dubai bounce to prevail, but the 6/5 morning line favorite has been stateside for a while now showing 4 local works over the Belmont turf.  He’s thrived here before, winning 5 races and finishing in the exacta in all 8 attempts.  Just keep in mind that stranger things have happened as Gio lost this race last year to stablemate Winchester in a similar setup (prompting yours truly to declare Winchester “a repeater”).

To be fair, the rest of the field doesn’t look particularly difficult to overcome. We don’t have a contender coming in with form quite like Winchester did last year, but you may want to think about adding in #7 Prince Will I Am as a logical contender for top honors.  The son of Victory Gallop has quietly had a decent 2011 campaign with a victory at the G2 level and a respectable 5th in the G1 Turf Classic.

The other contenders that appear to have an outside chance include #6 Viscount Nelson, who would be more attractive to me if he hadn’t raced in Ireland as recently as 6/3, and #3 Windward Islands who appears to be a logical horse to use underneath in the exotics and could be a Falklands style thorn in the side of the other royals.  Lastly, for the feel-good story of the year, I’ll try to find a way to use #2 Bold Hawk on the bottom of my tickets.

Exacta: 4,7/3,4,6,7

Trifecta: 4/3,6,7/2,3,5,6,7

Race 11:  G1 Belmont Stakes

And down the stretch we come.  Every year it seems the end of the Triple Crown season gets here faster than before.  What a season it’s been for bettors as well.  Animal Kingdom and Shackleford lighting up the tote board in the Derby and Preakness?  Favorites failing in both legs so far?  One would expect that trend may continue here in the final 2 furlongs of the Belmont – a race which has not been particularly kind to Derby and/or Preakness winners in recent history.  That said, I do believe that #9 Animal Kingdom and #12 Shackleford have established themselves as the cream of the crop thus far.  Animal Kingdom in particular should get the Belmont distance without any trouble, but he’s going to need to be a bit closer up than he was in the Preakness as the Belmont does not traditionally setup well for a late closer.  Somewhere around midpack would be ideal, I would think.

Shack-attack drew fairly poorly to the outside, which means he may have to run a step or two quicker towards the first turn than they’d prefer.  His best chance would be to get clear and then try to slow things down, I would think.   As for the “world’s biggest Shackleford fan” here at home with me (my wife)?  She thinks he doesn’t have a good chance to win here due to the distance, and I’d tend to agree with her.  I’m still going to cover him in the exotics, but I’m definitely leaning elsewhere with my top selections.  As for the Animal?  Big chance – but the odds are too low to get excited about.

Looking elsewhere in the field, I thought #1 Master of Hounds was a logical horse to consider adding in at a square price of 10/1 on the morning line.  He finished respectably in the Derby (5th) and like the favorite should be able to handle the distance without too much difficulty.  I haven’t heard much about him this week though, and coupled with Animal Kingdom would make my selections a tad closer-heavy for the moment.

#6 Nehro is a fairly obvious contender to include on my plays.  To be honest, I’d probably make the fiddling emperor top choice if not for slight concerns I have about the distance and with respect to jockey Cory Nakatani’s ability to get a prime trip out of him.  That move he made in the Derby to challenge Shackleford looked like it was going to win the day, and a similar trip gets him first jump on Shackleford as the field enters the stretch, which should give him a big shot.  There’s not much value to be had though at 4/1.

I’m also going to add in #5 Brilliant Speed as the bomber play for my tickets.  Admittedly it’s a wing and a prayer, but I do love me some Dynaformers and I’d like to see trainer Tom Albertrani take a Triple Crown race like I thought he might do with Odysseus last year.  Hopefully, as has been rumored, he’ll be closer up early on and not just another late running closer in my selections.

Obviously then, if recent history is any indication, your likely winners will be the horses I’m not playing, in particular #2 Stay Thirsty, #4 Santiva, or #10 Mucho Macho Man.  I could make a case for these guys as well, but you know the drill – can’t pick ‘em all.

Exacta/Superfecta: 1,5,6,9,12 (box)


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Categories : Animal Kingdom, Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Shackleford, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Holy Bull and Lecomte a remedy for early Derby Fever

22 01 2010

Horse and Plowman at Houghton Farm by landscape artist Winslow Homer

While it’s true that the official Kentucky Derby prep season begins well before this weekend, the racing action on Saturday at Fair Grounds and Gulfstream Park promises to treat viewers suffering with post Eclipse Awards “Derby Fever” with perhaps their first true glimpse of what the future holds.

Grade 3 Holy Bull

The 21st running of the Holy Bull (G3) in Saturday’s 9th race at Gulfstream Park (5:08 ET) will be contested by nine 3-year-old colts going 1 mile over the main track. In 2006, the legendary Barbaro used the Holy Bull as a spring board to his eventual triumph in the Kentucky Derby.  The field for this year’s Holy Bull sets up like this:

  1. Thank U Philippe (E. Castro/M. Wolfson) 8/1
  2. Homeboykris (E. Prado/R. Dutrow Jr.) 5/1
  3. Litigation Risk (A. Garcia/R. Violette) 12/1
  4. Piscitelli (K. Desormeaux/R. Sacco) 6/1
  5. William’s Kitten (J. Leparoux/M. Maker) 8/1
  6. Winslow Homer (R. Dominguez/A. Dutrow) 6/1)
  7. Wild Lime (J. Lezcano/M. Trombetta) 20/1
  8. Aikenite (J. Velazquez/T. Pletcher) 4/1
  9. Jackson Bend (J. Rose/N. Zito) 5/2*

The field is headlined by Nick Zito’s star trainee, JACKSON BEND, who has won 5 consecutive races including 4 consecutive stakes.  If he can stalk and pounce from his outside post position and get a decent trip, he makes for a dangerous chalk to play against.

It’s early in the year though.  Who comes here to play chalk in the first big race of the year?  Several other horses in this race look very playable if their morning line odds hold.

I’ll start with WILLIAM’S KITTEN, a son of Kitten’s Joy that my good friend Tencentcielo was eager to see on Breeders’ Cup weekend.  We raced to the paddock for the Juvenile to get a glimpse of him prior to the race.  Sent off at stratospheric odds, he both made a stronger visual impression in the paddock and ran a better race than his running line suggests.  I think this guy’s a player in here, although I think his better days are further down the road.

HOMEBOYKRIS is an interesting Maryland Bred for infamous trainer Rick Dutrow Jr.  He looked like a legitimate Derby contender in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont late last fall, but then pressed the pace and gave way stretching out to 9 furlongs in the Remsen (G2) in November.  The cut back to 1 mile and the bullet workouts in December and January suggest he’s ready to move forward.

Ultimately, I’m going to think a bit outside the box for my first prep play of the year.  I like the looks of WINSLOW HOMER quite a bit in this spot.  He’s only raced 3 times, but if not for a neck defeat in his début, the son of Unbridled’s Song would be a perfect 3 for 3.  He’s still got room for improvement and ran big off a  2 month layoff back in November at Philly Park.  Ramon Dominguez has to be excited to get another shot aboard this guy.  If the odds of 6/1 hold, I think he makes a lot of sense.

Oh yeah, about that random painting at the top of this post – that’s “”Horse and Ploughman at Houghton Farm by landscape artist Winslow Homer.  Seemed fitting, given this selection. :)

Selections for the G3 Holy Bull:

  • #6 Winslow Homer (6/1)
  • #9 Jackson Bend (5/2*)
  • #2 Homeboykris (5/1)

I’d add Aikenite and William’s Kitten into the exotic plays, and you may want to take a look at the Moss family entry, Piscitelli as well.

Dime Superfecta: 6/2,5,8,9/2,4,5,8,9/ALL = $9.60

Grade 3 Lecomte

The 66th running of the Lecomte in Saturday’s 10th race at Fair Grounds (4:43 CT) features 11 3-year-olds in a two-turn event covering 1 mile & 40 yards over the main track.  The most notable Lecomte winner of recent history was eventual runner up in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, Hard Spun.  Ironically, Friesan Fire, winner of last year’s Lecomte, is racing in the Louisiana Handicap at Fair Grounds on Saturday.

The field for the 2010 LecComte sets up as follows:

  1. Maximus Ruler (F. Torres/H. Clark) 4/1
  2. Turf Melody (J. Valdivia/G. Motion) 7/2
  3. Worldly (R. Albarado/P. McGee) 5/1
  4. Depaul (S. Sellers/S. Asmussen) 20/1
  5. Citrus Kid (M. Mena/J. Terranova) 8/1
  6. Callide Valley (C. Lanerie/E. Kenneally) 10/1
  7. B’wanagoldmine (E. Martin Jr./D. Pish) 15/1
  8. Letsgetitonmon (S. Bridgmohan/S. Asmussen) 10/1
  9. Coll Bullet (B. Hernandez Jr./S. Margolis) 5/1
  10. Rock Hard (H. Theriot/B. Barnett) 30/1
  11. Ron the Greek (J. Graham/T. Amoss) 8/1

MAXIMUS RULER is the horse that I think will ultimately go off as the post time favorite in this one, and for good reason.  While the son of Roman Ruler has never been two turns before, he is accomplished at the one mile distance last out racing close to the pace.  He’ll likely need to be involved early on breaking from the rail, but would seem to have the tools to turn in a solid performance if he can settle down in 2nd or 3rd.  I think he’s the obvious choice, even if I suspect he’ll be bet down a bit.

TURF MELODY heads out for my main man Graham Motion.  The son of Maria’s Mon has pulled off back-to-back victories at the mile distance in his last two starts – a sign that bodes very well for his chances here.  The only thing that worries me slightly is that Valdivia must get used to him right away. Russel and Rose certainly have this guy figured out, so hopefully Jose Jr. can be a quick study.  This runner has a nice old-school foundation laid in his running lines.  Graham just might have him ready to move forward here in start #1 for 2010.

WORLDLY is an interesting runner in this field, having been defeated by Stay Put last out in the same track/distance conditions.  The son of A.P. Indy would seem to need an improved performance to find the winner’s circle today, but it’s certainly not out of the question as there does seem to be some talent under the hood.

I’d look for CITRUS KID a little later in the year as the Lemon Drops can take a little while to get rolling, although this one did win back to back starts at Delaware Park last fall.  The water is a bit deeper here today, so he’d need his best stuff.  I’m going to consider him more of an underneath play in the exotics.

COOL BULLET is a horse stretching out for the first time who should be a factor in the pace scenario.  DEPAUL and CITRUS KID could challenge for the lead early on, which could open things up for the off-the-pace types coming in from behind.

Lastly, RON THE GREEK looks a little interesting from the outside post.  The son of Full Mandate started off his career with back to back victories before being defeated by TURF MELODY last out.  He’s another that warrants strong consideration for an underneath spot on the exotic plays.

Selections for the G3 Lecomte:

  • #1 Maximus Ruler (4/1)
  • #2 Turf Melody (7/2*)
  • #3 Worldly (5/1)

I’ll give CITRUS KID, COOL BULLET, and RON THE GREEK strong consideration for the bottom positions of my Superfecta play.  CALLIDE VALLEY is a horse I haven’t mentioned yet that could be a player as well.  I don’t want to totally sleep on the Asmussen runners DEPAUL and LETSGETITONMON or B’WANAGOLDMINE, but you know the drill; can’t chose ‘em all.

Dime Superfecta:  1/2,3,5,9/2,3,5,9,11/2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,11 =$11.20

So that’s where I stand headed into the first big weekend of the 2010 Kentucky Derby prep season.  I’m all in on WINSLOW HOMER and MAXIMUS RULER.  My only question for all of you is “who you got?”


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Categories : Fair Grounds, Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Advance Selections

2 11 2009

Continuing on with our advance selections for the upcoming Breeders’ Cup championship races this weekend at Santa Anita, we now turn to the Juvenile Fillies Turf  - a race which has a tendency to perplex many horseplayers due to the relative equality of the competitors and their lightly raced backgrounds.

I’ll be completely honest here and admit that I don’t have a strong opinion in the Juvenile Filles Turf.  I’m a bad enough turf handicapper as it is.  Adding “juvenile” fillies to the mix only makes this more of a crapshoot for me. 

The field for the Juvenile Fillies Turf looks like this (according to the advance entries released last week):

  • Champagne d’Oro
  • Connie and Michael
  • Dad’s Crazy
  • Elusive Galaxy
  • Hatheer
  • House of Grace
  • In the Slips
  • Jungle Tale
  • Junia Tepzia
  • La Nez
  • Lillie Langtry
  • Lisa’s Kitten
  • Potosina
  • Rose Catherine
  • Smart Seattle
  • Tapitsfly
  • Zilva

All things being equal, I’ll likely roll the dice a bit with my boy Graham Motion and hope that his combo of ZILVA and SMART SEATTLE can fire over the Santa Anita grass.  It would absolutely make my weekend to see Graham notch another Breeders’ Cup victory on his belt – especially after the retirement of the beloved Better Talk Now earlier in the year.  

Apart from that I thought that LILLIE LANGTRY appeared to have some solid European form coming into this race.  The question will of course be whether the daughter of Danehill Dancer wants to go the extra furlong here?  I see no reason to suspect that will be a problem, but it’s nonetheless something to consider.

The rest of the field seems fairly evenly matched, so hopefully the paddock and post parade impressions will help seperate these guys a bit. Suffice to say this is probably a spot to spread deep on your exotics.

If you’re a Medaglia d’Oro player (a recent innovation that just came into existence during this season), then perhaps you like Champagne d’Oro.  By the way, is it just me, or when you read this horse’s name do you not picture Christopher Walken doing his Saturday Night Live skit, announcing that some unsuspecting lady has “spilled their champ-ah-nya?”

 

If you’re a Beyer Figure handicapper, you’ll no doubt be attracted to ROSE CATHERINE and CONNIE AND MICHAEL.

If you’re a “recent form” player, then horses like HOUSE OF GRACE, IN THE SLIPS, JUNIA TEPZIA, and LA NEZ make sense.

If, like a Facebook friend (whose name ironically happens to be Lisa) you enjoy playing “cat themed” horse names, then perhaps LISA’S KITTEN is the horse for you?

Pick your poison here.  As I stated earlier, I’m a Graham Motion guy, so that’s where I’ll wind up.

Selections:

  • Zilva
  • Lillie Langtry
  • Smart Seattle

 Go get ‘em Graham!


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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Santa Anita

Better Talk Now retired

30 09 2009
Better Talk Now receives a bath

Better Talk Now receives a bath following a morning workout at Fair Hill, MD. (author's photo)

It’s never easy to write these posts, as I’m one who tends to struggle with goodbyes.  There’s never a simple way to come to grips with the retirement of one of your favorite horses.  It’s been said that bad news comes in droves.  Racing fans know this all too well.  In recent days we’ve had to stomach the losses of heroes such as Kona Gold and Summer Squall.  Now comes news that one of the most beloved horses in training, Better Talk Now (aka ”Blackie”) is injured and will race again no more. 

The 10-year-old and 2004 Breeders’ Cup Turf champion was one of my personal all-time favorites, and will be thoroughly missed by a great multitude of fans.  He was one of those horses that once you got to know,  you just HAD to love.  Indeed, it may have been impossible to NOT fall in love with him once you took notice of him on the track.  He gave it his all each and every time he raced, and has the “horsonality” of a total rock star.
 
Better Talk Now striking a "rock star" pose while eating some grass (author's photo)

Better Talk Now striking a "rock star" pose while eating some grass (author's photo)

Like many, I had been hoping to see him run in his final race in New York this fall and was looking forward to the closure that an opportunity to say goodbye might provide.  We all knew this day was coming, as the old man wasn’t getting any younger, but I can’t help but feel a bit of a punch in the gut now knowing we won’t see him run again.  Part of me feels selfish (and foolish) for that though, as he had already given us so much over the years.  This wasn’t the way his story was supposed to end though.  I think we all had dreamt that somehow, someway, he’d go out on top as a winner – just as he deserved.

Having spent most of the week thus far in the hospital myself dealing with some emergency surgery (appendicitis), I was unaware of this development until arriving home this morning.  Suffice to say it was not the kind of news I was hoping to come home to.    

Trying to be the ever the positive “glass half full” type, there are some important silver linings here to this story that we must keep in perspective. 

It goes without saying that it’s fortunate to have identified the injury and safely retired Blackie rather than have had something go horrifically wrong on the track.  Now he’ll be able to retire and live out the rest of his life while still in the care of Graham Motion and his top notch Herringswell Stables operation at Fair Hill, MD.

I know I tend to sound like a broken record about some things here from time to time, but having had the opportunity to visit them at Fair Hill earlier in the year on the morning of Del Cap day- this is where he belongs.  There’s no doubt in my mind about that.  From top to bottom Herringswell Stables is the definition of a class act. 

If I ever have the pleasure of owning one of these magnificent animals, I’ll do all I can to ensure my horse is under Motion’s supervision.  You can just feel the love everyone involved with them has for their horses.  Of course, Blackie was the “rock star” of the barn, and since he’ll stay there I suspect he’ll continue to be so. 

Motion has commented several times that he considers Better Talk Now’s  Breeders’ Cup Turf victory in 2004 as the highlight of his distinguished career as a trainer.  Looking back, I think that was one my favorite highlights of the last decade as well, albeit from a fan perspective. There was just something about Blackie that many found instantly lovable. 

Lastly, let’s not forget that he gave his fans reason to cheer their guts out one last time in his effort in the Sword Dancer back in mid-August.  He rallied from 10 lengths back with 3 furlongs to go and “gave it his all” to run 2nd to upset winner Telling.  I remember thinking he’d have a big shot in that race - and wanting desperately for him to run well.  At times, I’d swear he looked more like a happy kid in that race than a 10-year-old veteran.  In the end, it was rewarding to know that he was still a threat at the Grade 1 level no matter how “long-in-the-tooth” he might have been.

 

 

As we adjust to the realization that we won’t get to see him battling on through the deep stretch in future races, closing like a freight train into the early pace setters, we may at least take solace in knowing that he will be under the care of a group of people who love him dearly and will see to it that he receives only the finest care imaginable.  There’s no place on earth where I could envision him being happier.

In closing, here’s how we’ll always remember Blackie – making that powerful move in the stretch and running past all of ‘em to become a Breeders’ Cup champion.  Watching him run was one of the most exhilarating experiences of my life – and no doubt went a long way towards making me the fan of the sport I am today.

  

 

We’ll miss ya, fella, and we’ll always love ya.  Thanks for all the memories you’ve given us along the way.  Such a card.  Such a character – but  an immensely and instantly lovable one.  Enjoy your retirement – you’ve earned the rest, ole buddy.


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Categories : Better Talk Now, horse racing, Horse Racing News

Sword Dancer could setup for Better Talk Now

15 08 2009

He may be an elder statesmen at 10-years-old and counting, but fan favorite Better Talk Now might have just enough left in those wise old legs of his to kick on home in the stretch of Saturday’s Grade 1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga.  The former turf champion may have his work cut out for him, but if he can rekindle some of that magic that saw him pull the upset in the 2004 Breeders’ Cup Turf, this just might be the day his fans have been waiting years to see.

To do so, he’ll need to be able to prevail against the likes of Grand Couturier, and the sneakily dangerous Lauro, as well as a host of other contenders including Telling, American, Gentleman Chester, Quijano, Rising Moon, Americain, and Brass Hat.  The field sets up like this:

  1. Grand Couturier (GB) – Alan Garcia/ R. Ribaudo (3/1*)
  2. Gentlemen Chester – Julien Leparoux/ R.E. Nicks (15/1)
  3. Lauro (GER) – J.F. Chavez/ A. Wohler (10/1)
  4. Better Talk Now – R. Dominguez/ G. Motion (5/1)
  5. Rising Moon – Kent Desormeaux/ R. Dutrow Jr. (12/1)
  6. Americain – J.R. Velazquez/ Todd Pletcher ( 9/2)
  7. Telling – Javier Castellano/ S. Hobby (20/1)
  8. Quijano (GER) - A. Starke/ P. Schiergen (5/1)
  9. Brass Hat – Calvin Borel/ W. Bradley (12/1)
  10. Musketier (GER) – J.C. Jones/ R.L. Attfield (6/1)

First things first – I’ve got to confess that Better Talk Now is one of my favorite horses of all time.  I know he’s not quite the same runner who triumphed in the 2004 Breeders’ Cup Turf, but there’s simply so much to love about this horse.  Amy and I had the pleasure of meeting him several weeks ago when photographer Julie Ziek invited us to visit Graham Motion’s Herringswell Stables at Fair Hill, MD.  “Blackie” was as advertised – hamming it up for the cameras following a light workout and being his usual frisky self while folks attempted to give him a bath.

He has a peculiar habit of crossing his back legs – as if to say “yes, I know I’m a rock star.”  Even more entertaining is the fact that he seems to become even more of a ham when knows people are watching.  Just being in his presence though, you could instantly feel you were with a champion. There’s just something special about him. You can’t help but LOVE this guy!
 
 

I guess that’s why he has such a high volume of admirers.  No matter where you turn in the world of horse racing, from the folks on Cindy Dulay’s horse-races.net forums, to the folks on the new TVG Community site - you’re bound to run into diehard Better Talk Now fans.  He might not get the headlines of runners like Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta, but he’s got an army of fans amongst those who appreciate what it takes to be competing at a Grade 1 level at 10-years-old.

And who better for Better Talk Now to be in the care of than Graham Motion?  I can honestly say that for horse lovers out there, do yourself a favor and take a visit to his stable – it will do your soul good.  With all of the press that the bad elements of the game like Paragallo have received in recent months, it’s comforting to know that there are folks out there who put the care of their horses first and foremost.  I feel horrible even uttering the name Paragallo in the same sentence as Motion.  The two could not be more opposite; the proverbial “night and day.”

Herringswell Stables is a top class operation.   You can see it in the eyes of their charges.  You walk into the barn and all of their animals are beaming with joy.  Put plainly, “Blackie” could not be in better care, and it’s no surprise to me that he’s maintained soundness over such a long career.  All one need to see is how well cared for he is. 

Looking over the race, I really do think he’s got a big shot here.  He’s been knocking on the door, and you just have this feeling building up inside of you that he’s going to deliver one more great memory to his fans.  I haven’t felt strongly that he had a chance to win any of his previous 2009 efforts, but he’s run very well in each of them, including over softer footing.  Call it a hunch or whatever you will – my gut tells me today will be Blackie’s day.

As for the rest of the field, there’s much to like about both Lauro and Quijano as well.  Lauro had the misfortune of having to zero in on Presious Passion when that runner ran away with the United Nations.  While folks tend to remember the 20 length lead early on, remember that it was Lauro running well late who finished second.  I’d expect Lauro to be more forwardly placed in the Sword Dancer.  I’m not sure if he’ll be on the lead, but he’ll probably be close, which could set him up for a nice trip.

Quijano is a multiple Group One winner in his own right, and if you’re like me you always give a little added dose of respect to the European bred runners in turf events.  Quijano and Musketier both chased Gio Ponti (whom I contend at least belongs in the discussion for Horse of the Year, provided he wins out through the Breeders’ Cup Turf this fall) last time out and ran respectably, so look for them to make some noise in the Sword Dancer as well.  I look for Musketier and Lauro to be involved early on, with Quijano and Americain putting in their runs followed by Grand Couturier and Better Talk Now.

I’m playing my heart in this one.  I know that’s not a smart thing to do from a “handicapping” pespective, but when you’ve got one of your favorite horses running for one of your favorite horsemen, you’ve just got to beleive it’s possible.  I’m guessing that Better Talk Now will out finish Lauro and Quijano in the stretch and send his fans into shrieking fits of euphoria.  It’s been a long time since the 2007 Manhattan when he last found the winner’s cirlce.  A victory today would be a highlight of the summer for yours truly even (if this is at all possible) rivalling for me the victories of Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness and Haskell. 

It’s not like you can count Graham Motion out up at Saratoga either…Bullsbay, anyone? 

I’ll go 4/3,8/ 1,3,6,7,8,10  on the $1 trifecta for a total cost of $10.

Obviously then I’m using Lauro and Quijano in the place position, and adding in Grand Couturier, Americain, Musketier, and the longshot Telling to round out the superfecta.

That being said, there’s only one horse I’ll be rooting for.

Go Blackie, go!


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Categories : Better Talk Now, Handicapping Selections, Saratoga

Saturday Selections – 7/25/09

24 07 2009

Things are fairly quiet on the graded stakes front this weekend, with the Eddie Read and the Coaching Club American Oaks being the marquee races of the weekend.  In all honesty, a quiet weekend couldn’t come at a better spot for your’s truly, as I attempt to recuperate from the trip to Fair Hill and Delaware Park last Sunday, and look to rest up a bit before our voyage to Kentucky to see Curlin and New Jersey to see Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell looming on the near horizon.

We’ll only be focusing on 3 races this weekend, as we take a cautious approach at wading into the surf and turf waters of Del Mar with the Eddie Read and the Fleet Treat, and look to wrap things up at more familiar stomping grounds at Belmont with the Coaching Club American Oaks.  While we’ll be focusing on the larger races of the day from a stakes perspective, don’t forget about the little guys running in the Claiming Crown races at Canterbury.  Ted Grevelis will be “live blogging” covering the Claiming Crown races over at Owning racehorses.  Do pay him a visit if you get the chance.

 

Belmont Race 9 – The Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) – 1 1/4 Miles (5:17 ET)

  • #1 Livin Lovin (3/1)
  • #2 Wynning Ride (8/1)
  • #7 Hightap (5/1)

The 93rd running of the CCAO lost a bit of potential luster when the connections of Rachel Alexandra decided to instead point towards the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park, but all that really means is that we’ve got a more wide open betting affair before us.  In fact, in my opinion it feels like a situation where we can play against the favorite, #8 Funny Moon, quite confidently.

This is because Funny Moon seemingly requires moisture on the track to win.  I’ll be honest and admit I’ve no idea what the forecast for Belmont looks like tomorrow.  If it’s anything like what we’ve experienced the last few days, there has been periods of heavy rain, but ultimately the prospects for Saturday appear quite appealing with lots of sunshine predicted.   That would seem to make Funny Moon a tough selection to support at low odds, given the 3 victories over wet surfaces and the 0 for 2 mark over fast/dry tracks.

Livin Lovin is the horse that intrigues me the most in this field.  The daughter of Birdstone was originally entered in both the Delaware Oaks and the Del Cap last weekend, but scratched from each in order to run here.  That makes me think that trainer Steve Klesaris thinks his runner is sitting on a big one.  While she finished 4th last out in the Acorn over the Belmont surface, it wasn’t all that bad an effort given that she had been off since November.  She achieved a career high Beyer of 91 on a day when Gabby’s Golden Gal absolutely freaked, and the place horse, Justwhistledixie, would likely be heavily favored over this field.  She’s the pick as I’m guessing she’ll enjoy the added distance of the CCOA.  

Bob Baffert would appear to have himself an “x-factor” horse in Wynning Ride.  The daughter of Candy Ride has never been off the synthetics in 5 lifetime efforts, but if her workout on 7/13 at Belmont is any indication (5 furlongs in :59 and change), she ought to handle the surface just fine.  Also note some of the runners in her past performance lines that she’s run into; Laragh, Evita Argentina, Milwaukee Appeal.  Don’t be shocked if she moves forward in her first dirt effort is all I’m saying.

Lastly, I thought you had to keep an eye on Steve Asmussen’s runner Hightap.  The daughter of Tapit looks plenty formidable if you draw a line through her effort in the Honeybee back in March.  Even more appealing is the fact that she defeated Peach Brew last out, and that runner came back a winner last weekend. 

 

Del Mar Race 6 – The Fleet Treat ($100k) – 7 Furlongs (4:35 PT)

  • #4 Dani Reese (5/1)
  • #8 Saucey Evening (5/2*)
  • #6 Ultra Blend (7/2)

We head out west for the 24th running of the Fleet Treat at Del Mar.  First things first, through Thursday, only 2 favorites had proven victorious in the first 18 races run at the meet.  In other words, you probably fared better throwing darts at the wall then you did trying to pick logical winners.  Oh those tricky synthetic surfaces!  Even more perplexing is that the Fleet Treat is run at the always tricky 7 furlong distance.  So what’s a handicapper to do?

While I’d love to pick Saucey Evening here as my top choice, being as that I was able to visit Graham Motion’s Herringswell Stable barn at Fair Hill last weekend and hang out a bit with Cherokee Artist, Icabad Crane, and the beloved Better Talk Now, I was a bit surprised to see the morning line favoritism of 5/2 bestowed upon her.  Especially with Ultra Blend’s slightly more impressive Beyer figures.  I guess that’s what multiple stakes victories will do for a runner like Saucey Evening.  There goes my hope for value.  :-)

With this in mind, I’ve turned my primary attention to the lightly raced Dani Reese.  The daughter of High Demand was only a $14,000 purchase at the September 2007 Keeneland sale, and now she finds herself running in stakes company after two impressive performances at the maiden level and against open company at Hollywood.  We’ll find out what she’s made of this weekend as she gets the proverbial “acid test.”  The odds do feel right though from a risk/reward perspective at 5/1.  It’s also interesting to note that with the scratch of #2 Gold Goddess, Dani Reese is likely to get the lead all to herself.  Can she hold ‘em off in the stretch?  That’ll be the question she’ll have to answer.  Ultra Blend and Saucey Evening should be coming late trying to gun her down at the wire.

Speaking of the scratch of Gold Goddess, do note that this has freed up the services of jockey Joel Rosario.  As I was typing this, information came through on Facebook from a trusted source that Rosario will replace the injured Rafael Bejarano aboard Saucey Evening.

 

Del Mar Race 8 – The Eddie Read Handicap (G1) – 1 1/8 Miles – Turf (5:35 PT)

  • #1 Monterey Jazz (2/1*)
  • #8 Whatsthescript (3/1)
  • #4 Thorn Song (8/1)

Remember all that talk in the previous race about how favorites were only 2 for 18 through Thursday at Del Mar?  Yeah…looks like I followed my own advice about that tidbit for all of one race, as I’m back squarely on the chalk here for the 36th running of the Eddie Read Handicap.

Here’s the deal. Whatsthescript is a horse that I’ve supported time and again since last year’s Breeders’ Cup, and he just keeps burning me.  Maybe by getting off him today I’ll help him find the winner’s circle?  He’s definitely got the “horse for the course” angle going in his favor with $260,000 in earnings thus far in 2 races over the Del Mar turf.  Further, the Del Mar turf should, at least in theory, prove a bit easier to close into than the Hollywood turf, which was widely considered very speed favoring over the recently concluded spring/summer meet.

It’s just that Monterrey Jazz might be much the better horse now.  Even trainer John Sadler concedes that Whatsthescript might not have been able to catch Monterrey Jazz on his best day in the American Handicap on July 4.  If Monterrey Jazz is allowed to get loose on the lead, this one should become academic.

But, things aren’t always as simple as they seem, and the entry of Thorn Song in this race might be just what the doctor ordered for Whatsthescript.  That’s “if” he can keep Monterrey Jazz company on the front and force him to earn it in the stretch.  If he does, suddenly things get much better for the off the pace runners here. 

Ultimately, I didn’t anticipate this opening up for the late closers like Dakota Phone and Global Hunter, but stranger things have certainly happened.  For the Pick 6 and Pick 4 players here, I think you’re probably safe covering Monterey Jazz and Whatsthescript, or perhaps taking a stand on one or the other depending on how you feel the pace scenario will play out here in the Eddie Read.

That’s it for this week.  Best of luck to all and here’s hoping for a safe return for all horses and jockeys.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Del Mar, Handicapping Selections, horse racing

Shine Again highlights closing day at Pimlico

22 05 2009

One can always tell that the true “dog days of summer” are right around the corner with the arrival of Memorial Day weekend.  As racing fans, our attention will soon be focused on locations like Saratoga and Del Mar.  The Triple Crown races will soon be behind us, and once again it will be time to test the top 3-year-olds against the top older horses in the nation and begin to set the table for the Breeders’ Cup this fall.

Before we reach that destination, there’s still some exciting action left to cover in the wake of the historic finish in the 2009 Preakness.

It’s closing weekend at Pimlico, which means it’s my last chance of the season to play along at the track where it all began for me.  Much has been made of the decreased infield attendance at Old Hilltop during Preakness day, but I think folks who focus on that are missing the point.  Both television viewership and betting handle were up significantly.  If you had to pick between infield attendance, betting handle, and tv viewership, which of those selections would offer the weakest prospect in terms of building a long term relationship with fans?  In my estimation, having been an infield attendee for many years during my college days,  it was clearly the infield that had to go.  

What had once been an exciting, if not over-the-top, annual tradition of adolescent drunkenness had turned into an extremely violent situation that seemed like a powder keg waiting to explode.  In other words, I did not miss dodging flying beer cans for one moment this year.  In fact, the infield is now a place where I can consider taking my small children one day, so that they too might develop a love and appreciation for the majestic horses that so captivate us.  Imagine that!  Rather than catering to drunken college kids who could care less if they ever even see a horse all day, the track might move forward and begin developing a bond of shared experiences with the next generation…all while Mommy and Daddy watch and wager without worry of having to defend their family with their life from a mob of inebriated hooligans.  What a noble idea, huh? 

I only mention this because living in the Baltimore area, one of the hot topics you still hear people arguing over is the whole “infield debate.”  Personally, I think the decision was in the best interest of everyone involved;  the horsemen, the horses, the racing fans who actually come to see the races, and even the would-be hooligans, who at so young an age realize not what a danger they are to themselves and others. 

Again, ratings and handle were UP!  That’s what you want to see!  That’s how you gain national attention and become relevant!  Not by allowing college kids to pillage one another in senseless unsupervised drunken debauchery.  Was the infield more barren than years before?  No question…but my guess is that once folks figure out it’s actually a family friendly place now, you’ll see more attendees file in over the year who are their to actually play the races, rather than just occupy a cube of grass and proclaim complete beligerence for any who dare pass bye.

Plus, how many times have we heard that our sport needs an image change?  That all the things you see associated with horse racing, from fatal breakdowns, to degenerate gambling are “bad for the sport.”  Is there really anyone out there who thinks the scenes from the Preakness infield in years past is what this sport needed at this point in time? 

Hats off to the folks of the Maryland Jockey Club for standing up and doing what was right, even if it wasn’t universally popular or appreciated.  The “right” decisions are often the hardest to make, and in this case doubly so considering the economic hardship that has hit Maryland racing in the past year.

Don’t get me wrong…the infield had it’s bright spots, and I’m filled with memories (though many are quite hazy and disjointed for some reason) of infields past that continue to bring a smile to my face, but the turn to ever increasing recklessness in recent years was one that had to be controlled.   The fact that handle for the day was able to increase despite the economic situation our nation currently finds itself in also speaks VOLUMES about what one super filly can do for our sport.  See that, folks?  “Star power” does work.   Now if I could just get someone to buy into the whole “Take Back Saturday” idea, we might have a fighting chance to turn things around for the sport still! 

Ah…see, get me talking about Preakness and I start to rant.  Let’s move on to the intended purpose of this post – some quick selections for the final day of racing at Pimlico.

We’ll focus on the feature race of the day, the Shine Again, for fillies and mares 3-years old and upward going 1 1/16 miles over the main dirt track.  The field sets up like this:

  • #1 Swallow Falls (J. Pimentel/ M. Eppler) 7/2
  • #1A Katrinarita (no rider/ M. Eppler) 7/2
  • #3 Four Karats (G. Whitacre/ C. Pickett) 15/1
  • #3 Five Diamonds (no rider/ J. Hartsell) 3/1
  • #4 Amie’s Legend (Luis Garcia/G. Motion) 8/5*
  • #5 Silent Diva (no rider/ L. Murray) 5/1
  • #6 Eye (no rider/ K. Leatherbury) 6/1

It may be a small field, but it looks to be an intriguing one.  Two of the entries, #3 Four Karats, and #6 Eye, raced last Friday in the Kattegat’s Pride on Black Eyed Susan Day.  Four Karats led throughout the early action, but ultimately yielded to Eye in the stretch, who pulled away to win by 2 1/4 lengths.  It’s interesting to see these runners turned out again on such short rest, but do note that Eye began her 2009 campaign on just 15 days rest on 1/10/09 and managed to defeat $9k claimers at Laurel Park. 

The horse who I think you have to focus on here is #4 Amie’s Legend.  She’s got some personal connections that I simply can’t ignore, having a name that invokes reference to my wife (Amy).  Further, the 4-year-old daughter of Not For Love is trained by Graham Motion, my favorite horsemen on the Maryland circuit.  She exits a victory against $17k optional claimers and is taking a fairly steep class hike on paper, but she clearly fits on paper with the other runners in this field and this would appear to be a smart spot to place her in search of her first graded stakes victory.  She should be able to come from just off the pace and a repeat performance of her last effort likely finds her in the winner’s circle once again. 

Underneath I like #6 Eye coming from off the pace as well.  Usually I’d prefer to take a speed horse at Pimlico, as the track tends to favor such runners, but it looks like their could be enough action up front between #2 Four Karats, #3 Five Diamonds, and #5 Silent Diva to give Eye a similar setup to what he received in the Kattegatt’s Pride last week.   One thing is certain, we know she’s in sharp form coming off that last out win.  

Of the rest of the field, Id prefer #3 Five Diamonds, but the field is small enough that you might as well hit the all button for the bottom of the ticket.

Selections:

  • #4 Amie’s Legend (8/5*)
  • #6 Eye (6/1)
  • #3 Five Diamonds (3/1)

$1 Trifecta: 4/6/All =$4

In the final race of the day, I’m somewhat excited about a longshot first time starter for trainer Robert Gamber named Big Boper.   Apart from the King Leatherbury runner Stokes, who will likely be hammered at the windows by virtue of his 2nd place finish last out, Their really isn’t anything in this field that gives me tremendous pause.  I think I’ll take the first time runner at 20/1, and who knows, the odds might actually get better on this guy by post time.  Note that Gamber is actually hitting at a better clip this meet (17%) than Leatherbury (12%).  Granted, it’s been a short meet, but that’s still worth taking into consideration.  I’m not sure if he’ll pull out the win, but I’ll likely cover him across the board and play a small exacta with Big Boper and Stokes and hope for some magic. 

Selections (race 10)

  • $10 WPS #4 Big Boper
  • $1 Ex Box: 4,11 ($2)

As always, best of luck to all and be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches.  So long to Pimlico for the year.  The meet may have been short, but it certainly was sweet.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Pimlico


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