Toyota Blue Grass a solid betting race

10 04 2009

Saturday’s 85th running of the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland may not have the star appeal of the other Grade 1 preps along the Derby trail, but it might be one of the more appealing betting races of the season.   Value, particularly underneath in the exotics, will likely abound as the race has drawn 10 relatively evenely matched competitors. 

  1. Patena (R. Albarado Jr./ R. Dutrow Jr.) 10/1
  2. Join in the Dance (J. Velazquez / T. Pletcher) 10/1
  3. Theregoesjojo (C. Borel/ K. McPeek) 7/2
  4. Cliffy’s Future (J. L. Castanon/ D. Miller) 20/1
  5. Mafaaz (R. Hills/ J. Gosden) 12/1
  6. Terrain (J. Leparoux/ A. Stall Jr.) 6/1
  7. Loch Dubh (H. J. Thierot II/ J. Talley) 50/1
  8. General Quarters (E. Coa/ T. McCarthy) 15/1
  9. Charitable Man (A. Garcia/ K. McLaughlin) 4/1
  10.  Hold Me Back (K. Desormeaux/ W. Mott) 3/1*
  11.  Massone (G. Gomez/ R. McAnally) 12/1

Morning line favoritism has been awarded to Hold Me Back, largely based on his most recent victory in the Grade 2 Lane’s End on March 21 at Turfway Park.   The son of Giant’s Causeway perked up that day and displayed an apparent affinity for a synthetic surface.  Importantly, he also has shown he can win here at Keeneland, having done so against conditional allowance runners last October (including today’s rival Cliffy’s Future).   He also prevailed in a move I seldom play;  dirt to synthetic.  If you toss his 5th place finish on the dirt against Old Fashioned in the Remsen, he’s 3 for his remaining 3.   It’s interesting to note in his workout lines that he gest credit for a bullet over the dirt at Payson Park going 5 furlongs in 1:02.2, yet only ranks 15th out of 35 for his workout going the same two full seconds faster at Keeneland on Sunday.  He’s got the looks of a worthy favorite, but he doesn’t tower over the field.

Theregoesjojo is the second choice on the morning line at 7/2.  This guy looks like one of the best horses in this race, but once again I’m hesitant to support a dirt runner trying the artificial footing for the first time.    To his credit, he has defeated Quality Road, and ran respectably against both he and Dunkirk in the Florida Derby.  HIs trainer, Ken McPeek, is hitting at an even 20% clip over synthetic surfaces.  I’ve got mixed feelings about this guy in this spot.  I suspect he’ll run a good race, but I don’t think I can support him for the win.

Charitable Man is the horse that offers the most intrigue.  For starters, he’s a Lemon Drop, which I always enjoy playing.   You know he’ll be able to handle the distance, and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has been giving this guy some solid works in preparation for his 2009 debut.   While he is going from dirt to synthetics like Theregoesjojo, I like his turf pedigree a bit more and would expect him to handle the surfact switch more confidently.  While he has yet to race this year, somebody in his camp has decided this colt hast the goods for the Kentucky Derby, as he’s among those who paid the early nomination fee for the first Saturday in May.   It’s worth noting that he beat two talented horses in the Futurity last year, both Friesan Fire and Flying Pegasus.  As Handride pointed out to me on Facebook earlier today, he evidently has his own blog.  You get the feeling this is the class of the field right here, and if he’s cranked up and ready to go – watch out!

European invader Mafaaz has already earned a birth in the Kentucky Derby.   In that way, much like Street Sense in 2007, he’s really here as a final tune up while his connections make the final determination about their chances  next month.  He looks to be in great form, and the only loss of his career was to Donativum, who went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall at Santa Anita.   He’s accomplished on both turf and synthetics, and will likely offer solid value on the board since many players will shy away from him due to unfamiliarity.   My advice?  Don’t ignore this guy.  I don’t think they would have shipped here if they didn’t truly believe they might have something.   Of course, as with most of the horses here, you really need to get a look at them in the post parade before you can make a final assessment.   That goes doubly true for Mafaaz since he doesn’t have a posted workout over the local service to give us any other indication on how he’s shipped. 

Terrain is a runner who looks capable of moving forward by virtue of essentially dropping in class.   He ran into Friesan Fire and Papa Clem in the Louisiana Derby, and prior to that was favored against Big Drama and West Side Bernie in the Delta Jackpot.  That was really his worst effort after rather uncharectersitically flashing early speed.   He’s actually finished ahead of Pioneer of the Nile, who is currently 4th in the public voting on our Kentucky Derby poll, in both the Breeder’s Futurity and the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.  That’s really one of the most powerful angles you can find from a handicapping perspective in this entire race. 

I’m going to play the Lemon Drop like I usually do and go with Charitable Man for the win.   I’ll use Mafaaz, Terrain, and Hold Me Back underneath in place.  Add in General Quarters  and Theregoesjojo for show,  with Patena and Join in the Dance on the bottom of the Superfecta.  

Selections:

  • $20 Win #9 Charitable Man
  • $.10 Superfecta:  9/5,6,10/ 3,5,6,8,10/ 1,2,3,5,6,8,10 ($6.00)

The Toyota Blue Grass will be featured on TVG and again on tape delay on ESPN2 on Saturday.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Keeneland, Kentucky Derby Trail

Nad Al Sheba’s star studded day

27 03 2009

They’ve come from every continent in the world, and this Saturday at Nad Al Sheba many of the top thoroughbreds in the world will compete in a series of 6 graded stakes races, culminating  with the $6 million Dubai World Cup.  At this moment last year, I was nervously waiting out the final night before Curlin’s date with international destiny.  Now here we stand one full year later, and once again we cast our attention to the East and the lure of riches, fame, and glory.  While there is no Curlin in the World Cup this year, the lineup for the day in Dubai is beyond impressive.  It might as well be a mini Breeders’ Cup festival.  This, my friends, is the type of day that horse racing fans and handicappers the world over long for. 

Race 2:  The $1,000,000 Godolphin Mile (Grade 2) – 1 Mile

  • #6 Kalahari Gold 8/1
  • #4 Two Step Salsa 3/1*
  • #13 Gayego 7/2

We kick things off in the 2nd race of the day in the $1 million Godolphin Mile.  One of my early favorites from last year, Gayego, looms as a huge threat, but has drawn an outside post.  He’s also going to be stretching out to a mile again after romping in the Mahab Al Shimaal (G3) last out.   Two Step Salsa looks like his main competition on paper having picked up the services of jockey L. Dettori.  Another horse I thin has a big shot in here is Kalahari Gold for Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashin Al Maktoum.  Dijeer, on the the extreme outside, and Art of War also deserve consideration.  I’m going to make Kalahari Gold my top choice at 8/1 in a bit of an upset, but Id cover Gayego and Two Step Salsa as well if you’re wading into the pick 6 waters.

Race 3: The $2,000,000 UAE Derby (Grade 2) – 1  1/8 Miles

  • #5 Desert Party 1/1*
  • #11 Soy Libriano 10/1
  • #1 Regal Ransom 4/1

The UAE Derby provides the “prep fix” for us Kentucky Derby junkies, being the lone race on the card exclusive to three-year-olds (as well as possible grade 2 points in the Road to the Roses challenge).  Desert Party is the obvious choice here having toyed with competition last time out.  A win puts him firmly on the Derby trail, while a loss will likely cause his connections to think twice before shipping half way around the globe.  I don’t think there’s anyone in here who can beat him, but if an upset were to occur a likely candidate might be Soy Libriano from the outside.  He’s the lone entry in the field with a win at the 1 1/8 mile distance of the UAE Derby.  That’s got to count for something, right?   Regal Ransom play underneath in the exacta and trifecta wagering, along with Redding Colliery as they have both finished behind Desert Party in their last two races. 

Race 4: The $2,000,000 Dubai Golden Shaheen (Grade 2) – 6 Furlongs

  • #12 Indian Blessing 3/1*
  • #2 Big City Man 5/1
  • #7 Merchand d’Or  9/2

The Golden Shaheen is a tricky race to handicap for many U.S. players as it’s a 6 furlong sprint on a straight track.  That means we’ve no tricky turns to negotiate.   For that reason I expect the class of Indian Blessing to shine through.  I firmly beleive that 6 furlongs might be her best distance.  Ever since she lost the Acorn to Zaftig last year, I’ve been convinced that she was born to sprint, and so far she’s lived up to that billing.  This one should be quick, as there seems to be quite a bit of speed signed on.  Big City Man owns 4 victories at the 6 furlong distance and has run well at Nad Al Sheba giving him a bit of a “horse for the course” angle to consider.  He seems to always show up and run a big race and I see no reason to expect a change this weekend.  Marchand d’Or intrigues me a bit despite having not run well the last time he tried the turf to dirt angle.  He seemingly woke up the second half of last year and may have been entering this race on a 4 for 4 run had he not encountered a bit of trouble in the Hong Kong Sprint at Sha Tin last out.  Diabolocal, Force Freeze, and Lucky Quality all look useful underneath in the exotics.

Race 5: The $5,000,000 Dubai Duty Free (Grade 1) – 1  1/8 Miles (Turf)

  • #10 Archipenko 4/1*
  • #3 Vodka 10/1
  • #8 Balius 8/1

This might be the deepest field we’ll see all year.  One could make a case for virtually every runner in this field, and numerous longshots rate big chances to hit the board.  Needless to say, if you’re playing the Pick 6 this looks like the race to spread the deepest.  Ultimately I’m taking a stand against the morning line favorite, Kip Deville, as I’m not sure this is his best distance.  Yes, I know he’s exiting a victory going the same distance last out at Gulfstream against the likes of Court Vision, but I prefer him going a mile.  Archipenko is a horse I still cannot believe lost the Arlington Million last year.  He’s a better hrose than that, and proved as much by winning the Zabeel Mile over Vertigineux and Kalahari Gold (keep that in mind if my longshot wins the Godolphin Mile). Vodka is not the only female in the race, but she sure looks the best of them.  She had a horrible trip against Balius and Jay Peg in the Jebel Hatta (G2) last out and could turn the tables on them with a bit more racing luck.  Balius looks like a tough competitor in here with a big shot at long odds.  Like I said, deep field, so either go with your instincts here or spread deep.  Hell, if you can afford to, press the “All” button and hope for a bomber.  It could well happen here.  It’s actually tougher to come up with reasons why most of these runners can’t win than it is to come up with reasons why they can.  

Race 6:  The $5,000,000 Dubai Sheema Classic (Grade 1)  – 1  1/2 Miles (Turf)

  • #6 Youmzain 4/1
  • #1 Front House 6/1
  • #7 Purple Moon 6/1

We stay on the turf for the Dubai Sheema Classic, only we stretch out to a mile and a half this time.  Youmzain has amassed over $1 million more than any of the other competitors at the longer 1 1/2 mile distance.  This will mark his third attempt to reach the winner’s circle at Nad Al Sheba.  He’s been off for quite some time, but note that he did run second to Zarkava in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Grade 1) last October at Longchamp.   Zarkava woud likely crush this field, so a repeat performance puts him right in the hunt.  He’s also battled heads with the likes of Dylan Thomas and Duke of Marmalade, so he’s a proven commodity to say the least.  I’m not fond of his odds at 4/1, but he’s the top choice.  Front House and Russian Sage form a formiddable battery for South African based trainer Mike de Kock.  Front House is the more proven of the two at this distane.  It’s hard to believe you can get a horse like Red Rocks, who defeated Curlin in the Man O’ War last year at Belmont, at odds of 10/1, but he hasn’t looked nearly as good since that race. 

Race 7: The $6,000,000 Dubai World Cup (Grade 1) – 1  1/4 Miles

  • #4 Asiatic Boy 5/2
  • #10 Albertus Maximus 2/1*
  • #8 Casino Drive 6/1

I can’t help but get the feeling that Jess Jackson ought to drag Curlin out of retirement, even now just hours before the race, and send him to Dubai to show this field what a real champion looks like. Oh wait, hang on a second.  Curlin basically did that already having defeated many of these same faces last year in his record setting 7 3/4 length win.   No world beaters like that look entered here today, which oddly enough means we have ourselves a stronger betting race.  I’m seeing this one as a three horse race between the above mentioned contenders.  I give Asiatic Boy the slight nod, but to be honest I could easily see Casino Drive pulling the upset.  I’m a bit worried about the fact that Asiatic Boy doesn’t string consecuritve victories together, meaning he might be due for a defeat.  One other thing to keep in mind: At one point last year, Asiatic Boy was a perfect 5 for 5 at Nad Al Sheba.  Since then he’s gone 1 for 4.  Albertus Maximus is my U.S. play, hoping to keep a victory streak going here for the “red, white, and blue corner!”  My Indy and Well Armed deserve some consideration if they look good going to post.


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Categories : Casino Drive, Gayego, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Indian Blessing

Derby time, Florida style

26 03 2009

Another weekend, another step forward down the ole Derby trail.  On Saturday nine horses will compete for lucrative graded stakes earnings and a potential starting spot in the 2009 Kentucky Derby in the 58th running of the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.  In recent years the Florida Derby has become arguably the key prep race in the road to the roses, having produced future Derby winners in Big Brown (2008) , Barbaro (2006), and Monarchos (2001).   On paper this has the feeling of a two horse race, but there are a few runners who could make things interesting for the favorites.  The field sets up like this:

Past Performances available here

  1. Toby the Coal Man (J. Leparoux/ N. Zito) 10/1
  2. Quality Road (J. Velazquez/ J. Jerkens) 2/1
  3. Casey’s On Call (E. Baird/ A. Fehr) 15/1
  4. Dunkirk (G. Gomez/ T. Pletcher) 9/5*
  5. Sincero (E. Trujillo/ M. Azpurus) 20/1
  6. Theregoesjojo (K. McPeek/ K. Desormeaux) 5/1
  7. Danger to Society (M. Madrid/ R. Dutrow) 6/1
  8. Europe (C. Decarlo/ T. Pletcher) 20/1
  9. Stately Character (R. Douglas/ G. Procino) 20/1

There’s simply no getting around it.  The question everyone will be wanting to see answered is whether Dunkirk is worthy of the hype we’ve bestowed upon him in recent weeks.   To prove that he’ll have to find a way to get past a very talented Quality Road for trainer James Jerkens.  Quality Road has the obvious raw speed figure advantage, but Dunkirk is proven at the longer distance of the Florida Derby ( 1 1/8 miles), having defeated conditional allowance winners (including #5 Sincero) last out in what could only be described as a disastrous early trip.  It’s worth taking a look again at that race replay to try and form a final opinion of the son of Unbridled’s Song who sold for $3.7 million in September of 2007.

Dunkirk overcomes an extremely wide trip to crush Allowance runners at Gulfstream Park on 2/19/09

 

I’m not sure what else can be said to describe that effort short of “amazing.”   Had he not been carried so far wide, no doubt his final time and speed figures would have been boosted further.  It’s not hard to figure out why so many fans, including myself, have jumped aboard this guy’s bandwagon.   I mentioned in the last post though that he’s still got a ways to go.   This appears to be a deep crop of three-year-olds he’s in competition with (from an overall standpoint, if not necessarily in this particular field), so he”ll have to continue to improve.   As an unraced 2-year-old with such a light foundation so far coming into the Florida Derby, he’s still a bit of an unknown wild card.   In the end you’ve got to love how he finished that last race.  You get the feeling he wants more and will be ready for the step up in class.

Quality Road should not be taken lightly though.  Dismissed by yours truly in the Fountain of Youth (although I did  mention he would have a bright future in front of him), he romped over what was considered at the time to be an extremely deep group of horses, including Capt. Candyman Can, Beethoven, This One’s for Phil, Notonthesamepage, and Theregoesjojo (who he faces again today).  The son of Elusive Quality has shown he can put up big speed figures at the shorter distances and will now have to prove that he can run just as well going an extra furlong.   Judging from the way he drew off from the Fountain of Youth field,  it doesn’t look like the distance will be a huge concern.  Much like Dunkirk, it’s wise to take at least one last look at Quality Road’s performance in the Fountain of Youth.

Quality Road romps in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on 2/28/09

 

Watching that  performance, it appears Quality Road got an almost perfect trip stalking This One’s for Phil.  I say “almost”  because there was some trouble at the start.  His running line for the race denotes “jostled start.”  In fact, it was the second such performance in a row where he’s run well after encountering some trouble at the start.   Theregoesjojo appeared to be running well for place, and it’s important to note that Quality Road showed his class by keeping a healthy lead on him through the home stretch.  This definitely looks like a serious horse.  One could easily this race boiling down to a similar denouement, where Quality Road has to hold off the charge of Dunkirk late in the stretch.

As for the rest of the field, Theregoesjojo is an improving runner for trainer Ken McPeek that will likely take some heavy play in the exacta pools.  Like Quality Road, he’ll have to prove he can run to those big speed figures stretching out an extra furlong.  In yet another similarity with Quality Road, he also encountered some trouble at the break in the Fountain of Youth by “stepping slow.”  The way he was moving late I think this one gets the added distance with no problems. 

Danger to Society is the x-factor (beyond Dunkirk) who could make his presence felt.  You can never count Rick Dutrow out of a horse race (as much as it pains me to say it), and he could get lucky with this son of Harlan’s Holiday who appeared to be progressing nicely before hitting a bump in the road in the Holy Bull in late January.  They’ve had him on the shelf for a long time since transferring  to Dutrow after the Holy Bull, and his workout tab for March suggests the light may have turned back on.  He could still be any kind of horse, and I’ll be expecting an improved performance in his first effort for his new barn.

If you’re looking for some longshots to round out your exotic wagers, consider the inside runner, Toby the Coal Man for trainer Nick Zito.  Yes, it took him 6 attempts to finally break his maiden last out, but his last two efforts have been tremendous improvements.  He had to fight to bust out of the maiden ranks last out as he was set down for an all out drive in the stretch to reach the promised land of the winner’s circle.  This is an ambitious placement on paper, but he has attracted jockey Julien Leparoux.  I’m guessing the worm has turned with this one.  Look for another step forward and a real shot of hitting the board.

Sincero is another who keeps coming up in my handicapping as a play underneath.  I doubt he can finish higher than 3rd, but he has gone up against some classy colts compared to some of the other long shots on the board.  Note that he has matched up against Big Drama, Free Country, Take the Points, and Dunkirk.  He’s another runner with a penchant for trouble in his running lines.  If he ever puts it all together he’s eligible to move forward. 

Ultimately, if you’re playing the superfecta, I think you’ve got to cover the field for the bottom of the ticket.  Even the longest shot on the board, Europe, looks a little worrisome to leave off completely.  True, he showed absolutely nothing in his debut, but he’s as well bred as his stablemate Dunkirk and his morning workouts suggest he’s more talented than we saw in that effort.  It’s probably asking a bit much for him to step up to the Grade 1 level, but it’s conceivable he could pick up a small share of the earnings. 

I’ll go with Dunkirk for the win, but you won’t hear and argument from me for those who choose to stand against him and take a possibly more prudent “wait and see” approach.  I’m banking on the fact that the distance will be more to his liking than it will be for Quality Road.  That beings said,  I expect Quality Road will make him earn it if he’s to pass him in the stretch.  I’ll use Quality Road, Danger to Society, and Theregoesjojo for place.   Add in Toby the Coal Man and Sincero for show, and then cover the field for the bottom and hope for a bomber.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #4 Dunkirk
  • $.10 Superfecta:  4/2,6,7/1,2,5,6,7/ ALL  ($8.40)

 


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Categories : Dunkirk, Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Quality Road

Turfway’s double feature in the spotlight

20 03 2009

If you’re like me, you’re champing at the bit to see more of the improving 3-year-old crop we’ve been treated to so far this year.  One gets the sense that next “big moments” in the sport are just a few weeks away.  All around us the signs point to the time of year we dream of in our slumber.  Spring is finally breaking through to the Mid Atlantic, and will soon envelop the East Coast in full.  Attention turns as the first Saturday in May approaches in an unstoppable procession. 

So, what have we this week?  One might say “not much” on the surface, but I tend to think we’ll wind up with a fairly competitive couple of stakes down at Turfway.   The Rushaway will lead things off in an increasingly rare national  broadcast on ESPN, while the feature race of the day, the Grade 2 Lane’s End, is scheduled to go off at 5:43 PM (ET)

Now, I’m all in favor of national broadcasts, especially in light of the Take Back Saturday idea I keep droning on about.  That being said, wouldn’t it have made more sense to feature some of the races we’ve seen over the last few weekends instead?   Don’t get me wrong…we’ve got some fine colts to watch in the Lane’s End, but wouldn’t showcasing Friesan Fire or Pioneer of the Nile have been more beneficial?   What about The Pamplemousse, Old Fashioned, or I Want Revenge?  While we’re at it, let’s not forget the fillies Stardom Bound and Rachel Alexandra.   Fine equine ambassadors all.  Tell a continuous story….give it context and relevance… well, you’ve heard it all before  so I’ll spare you the sermon.

We’ll start by taking a look at the Rushaway.

TP Race 9 – $100,000 Rushaway (1 1/16 Miles)

  1. Ninth Client (I. Ocampo/D. Wayne Lukas) 10/1
  2. Ziegfeld (G. Gomez/D. Romans) 3/1
  3. Fitzaslew (K. Desormeaux/K. McPeek) 5/2*
  4. Cliffy’s Future (J. Castanon/D. Miller) 9/2
  5. No Inflation (C. Velasquez/T. Proctor) 3/1
  6. Summer’s Empire (E. Prado/A. Mitchell) 6/1
  7. Sunday’s Baby Grand (E. Zuniga/J. Christenson) 30/1
  8. Toccet Rocket (T. Pompell/B. La Mew) 20/1

Past performances available here

I could make a case for 5 of the 8 horses running here, including Fitzaslew, Ziegfeld, Summer’s Empire, No Inflation, and Cliffy’s Future.  With the reduced field size of 8 runners, the risk to reward ratio figures to be flattened on most, if not all of those runners.

Obviously Fitzaslew (Seattle Fitz) looks plenty dangerous and is a decent  favorite on the morning line.  That being said, there are some glaring questions that in my mind surpass the respectable speed figures.  Firstly, he’s making the dreaded dirt to synthetic switch.   This is another topic I harp on quite frequently.  Suffice to say I’m much more comfortable with synthetics to dirt than the other way around.  Add to the equation that we can’t be certain Fitzaslew really wants to go long, and there’s reason to look a bit deeper for your win wagers.  Get off the chalk in this one.  Make him beat you if he can.

Two horses that look very interesting as alternatives are Summer’s Empire and No Inflation.  With Summer’s Empire this might seem  a bit hypocritical from my thoughts on dirt to synthetics, but I’m going to guess that this Empire Maker colt will run well tomorrow.  I suspect handicappers may be inclined to shy away from him due to three seemingly sub-par performances over the synthetics to start his career.  I’m willing to forgive those efforts. I chalk them up to being a rookie, running deceptively competitive in his second start, and then having all kinds of trouble (off slowly, bleeding) in his third start.  I’m also willing to forgive his dismal 12th place (beaten 26 lengths) effort last out in the Risen Star.  He was hung wide that day and simply outrun by a very strong field (Friesan Fire, Flying Pegasus, Uno Mas, etc.).  He makes a lot of sense at decent odds. 

No Inflation might get overlooked here as well. The son of Repriced has won on both synthetics and turf, which makes him a very dangerous commodity in this race.  All one has to do is forgive his lone dirt effort and this horse’s running lines suddenly look very strong against this field.  He’s also training well and has shown he can handle going a route distance.   All this guy has to do is make a solid post parade impression and he might well be the play.

Ziegfeld looks like an intriguing runner here as well.  He’s not going to face the likes of Dunkirk (or at least who we think Dunkirk is at this point in time) in this field.   Even looking at that race it appears he was in contention before encountering some trouble.  He’s yet another to keep an eye on in the post parade.  The jockey switch to Garrett Gomez will undoubtedly attract many bettors.  Also note that last bullet workout on 3/14.   The son of Elusive Quality has every right to move forward this weekend. Then again, there’s that nagging dirt to synthetics question to deal with.

Then there’s Cliffy’s Future.   He certainly looks like he could be difficult in this field.  He might only have one win, but he’s been in the thick of things on several occasions and should be again this weekend. 

It’ll come down to the post parade for final selections, but I’m leaning towards Summer’s Empire  or No Inflation here for the win.   I’d add in the other win candidates for the bottoms of the exacta and trifecta. 

TP R10 – The Grade 2 Lane’s End (1 1/8 Miles)

  1.  Hold Me Back (K. Desormeaux/W. Mott) 6/1
  2. Bittel Road (G. Gomez/ T. Pletcher) 5/2*
  3. A. P. Cardinal (C. Velasquez/ K. McLaughlin) 10/1
  4. West Side Bernie (E. Prado/ K. Breen) 3/1
  5. Jack Spratt (J. Leparoux/M. Maker) 8/1
  6. Parade Clown (E. Coa/K. Ball) 10/1
  7. Bruce N Autumn (V. Lebron/ D. Romans) 20/1
  8. Orthodox (J. Castanon/ J. Glenney) 10/1
  9. Loch Dubh (C. Borel/ J. Talley) 20/1
  10.  Flying Private (I. Ocampo/ D. W. Lukas) 12/1
  11.  Dynamite Bob (M. Guzman/ J. Lopez) 30/1
  12.  Proceed Bee (R. Prescott/T. Gestes) 12/1

Past performances available here

Right away I’m a bit surprised.  I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that the public will make West Side Bernie the post time favorite.  The son of Bernstein has yet to run a bad race, and is seemingly on the improve.  I actually based my initial handicapping on the assumption that he’d be a strong favorite here.   A win on Saturday and he’s tossed his name into the Derby contender ring.  True, he’s going from the dirt back to synthetics, but with West Side Bernie you can be comforted  in knowing that he’s triumphed on the artificial footing here at Turfway before.  There is one other thing I’ve got to say though.  I’m not a fan of the Delta Jackpot.  In fact,  I consider it to be the most overrated race in all of thoroughbred racing, with a purse that far exceeds the true quality of the race.  I suspect the lure of big bucks will eventually change that and turn the race into a key one, but for now I subconsciously downgrade even those runners who win that race, and ‘Bernie was a clear second (beaten 1 length).

The horse I was hoping (and still hope) to catch at decent odds?  Bittel Road.  I had thought that his recent running lines, including a pair of 4th place finishes, a place, and a dismal 8th in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf last October would have downgraded his odds, but evidently the power of a proven turf/synthetic runner is too hard to ignore.  He’ll be facing much less than the trio of Pioneer of the Nile, I Want Revenge, and Papa Clem that he ran into last out in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita.  Garrett Gomez has travelled to ride him, and one gets the feeling that Todd Pletcher cannot be ignored with a chance to bring a runner like this along just in time for the Triple Crown.   Is he that quality of horse?  I sincerely doubt it, but he’s good enough to defeat this field.

Parade Clown is another runner with proven form over the synthetics. His last four races stack up very nicely with some of the other contendors in here.  His “hit or miss” recent style would seem to suggest he’s due for a solid outing.  Of the longer shots in the field he’s probably got the best chance. 

I’ll probably play the odds with West Side Bernie and Bittel Road.  Whoever offers the most value will likely be the play as I could see either horse winning.   For now I’ll go with Bittle Road, with West Side Bernie, Parade Clown, and A. P. Cardinal in place.  On the bottom of the trifecta I’ll add in Hold Me Back and Proceed Bee.

2/3,4,6/1,3,4,6,12

Best of luck to all! 

I’ll be off to a birthday party for our eldest son earlier in the day, and must hope I’m home in time to see the post parade.  Next weekend things really heat up with the Florida Derby(G1), the Swale (G2), and the UAE Derby (G2), so be wise and pace yourself.  Remember: it’s a route not a sprint!  Yeah…or something like that.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Kentucky Derby Trail, Turfway Park

Old Fashioned the obvious choice for the Rebel

13 03 2009

It wasn’t that long ago that I was falling madly in love with a chestnut colt running  in the Rebel back in 2007.  While there is no Curlin (at least not yet) this year, we will be treated to one of (if not THE) finest colts in the nation on Saturday when trainer Larry Jones sends Old Fashioned to post,  leading the field for the 49th running of the Rebel (Grade 2) at Oaklawn Park. 

Past performances available here

  1. Old Fashioned (R. Dominguez/ L. Jones) 7/5*
  2. Hamazing Destiny (T .J. Thompson/ D. W. Lukas) 5/1
  3. Poltergeist (Q. Hamilton/ D. Von Hemel) 15/1
  4. Pointing Home (J. A. Garcia/ C. Dickey) 15/1
  5. Wise Kid (J. C. Caraballo/ T. Ritchey) 9/2
  6. His Greatness (L. J. Sterling Jr./ M. Salazar) 12/1
  7. Captain Cherokee (L. S. Quinonez/ S. Asmussen) 8/1
  8. Silver City (J. Court/ W. B. Calhoun) 4/1
  9. Win Willy (M. C. Berry/ M. Robertson) 20/1

It would appear that Old Fashioned has scared off most of the would-be challengers.  The son of Unbridled’s Song looms the standout in the Rebel field coming off 4 consecutive victories to open his career, including the Remsen (Grade 2) and the Southwest  (Grade 3).   He’s expected to waltz past this field, and it’s worth noting that Larry Jones will be at Oaklawn with Old Fashioned rather than at Fair Grounds with Friesan Fire.  It looks like he should continue his triumphant procession this weekend towards the Kentucky Derby. 

Wise Kid is the horse I’m anxious to see in this field.  He’s progressed nicely up the ranks from Maiden Special Weight to N2L Optional Claimers last out.  The  son of Lemon Drop Kid has never seen the likes of Old Fashioned, but he certainly belongs with the rest of the field.

Silver City would be the logical choice underneath in exactas, having finished in the money in all 5 lifetime races (including 3 impressive wins sprinting).  He faced off against Old Fashioned in the Southwest and held on for place.  You get the feeling the exact same thing will happen this weekend, which might make him vulnerable to being upset in the exacta pool by a runner like Wise Kid.

Poltergeist is a horse I heard a lot of buzz about going into the Southwest, but he didn’t really show up that day.  If you liked him that day, you’ve got to at least like the 15/1 morning line odds this weekend. 

The head-scratcher of this race is Hamazing Destiny.  He put up a 96 Beyer in his debut over the Oaklawn track sprinting 6 furlongs on February 7.  He’s also been turning in strong workouts in the mornings.  The question is, can he run that type of figure stretching out to 1 1/16 miles?   I’d make him prove it before accepting him at 5/1, but then again there’s not a whole lot else to hang your hat on in this race.

Captain Cherokee, His Greatness, and Win Willy look playable underneath.  Let’s see…that’s pretty much the entire field though.  The only horse I don’t think has a legit shot of hitting the board is Pointing Home. 

I’ll take Old Fashioned over Wise Kid and Silver City in place.  I’ll spread pretty deep for the bottom spots of the Superfecta by adding in Hamazing Destiny, Poltergeist, His Greatness, and Captain Cherokee for show.  Add Win Willy to that mix for 4th.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #1 Old Fashioned
  • $.10 Superfecta: 1/5,8/2,3,5,6,7,8/2,3,5,6,7,8,9 ($5.00)

That’ll do it folks…it’s been a long evening, so there’s your picks for the major Derby preps this weekend.   One note as a horse racing fan – do make sure you also check out the impressive filly Rachel Alexandra in the Fair Ground Oaks.  She just might be the best horse running all day.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Old Fashioned

Louisiana Derby the key to many questions

13 03 2009

Saturday’s 96th running of the Louisiana Derby (Grade 2) at Fair Grounds is arguably the strongest betting race of the 4 major Kentucky Derby prep races of the day (including the San Felipe, the Tampa Bay Derby, and the Rebel).  That’s due to the fact that several highly touted horses have entered in what appears to be an extremely competitive race.  When all is said and done we should be able to answer several burning questions, including whether Friesan Fire, Patena, and Flying Pegasus are the real deal(s), and whether Papa Clem can follow in the footsteps of I Want Revenge, who came east from California last week to win the Gotham at Aqueduct. 

Past performances available here

  1. Free Country (K. Desormeaux/ K. McPeek) 12/1
  2. Soul Warrior (S. Bridgmohan/ S. Asmussen) 20/1
  3. Patena (R. Albarado/ R. Dutrow) 7/2
  4. Terrain (J. Leparoux/ A. Stall Jr.) 10/1
  5. Flying Pegasus (J. Velazquez/ R. Nicks) 8/1
  6. Giant Oak (J. Graham/ C. Block) 4/1
  7. Uno Mas (B.J. Hernandez Jr./ S. Asmussen) 12/1
  8. Papa Clem (R. Bejarano/ G. Stute) 8/1
  9. Friesan Fire (G. Saez/ L. Jones) 5/2*
  10. Nowhere to Hide (C. Lanerie/ N. Zito) 15/1

Friesan Fire is your morning line favorite at 5/2.  He’s a guy who doesn’t get a lot of respect, yet quietly sits within most Derby lists in one of the top 5 slots.  Larry Jones is as solid a trainer as there is when it comes to getting 3-year-olds ready for the big time.  When teamed with jockey Gabriel Saez they create a human connection battery that is extremely formidable.  The son of A.P. Indy really turned it up a notch in his most recent workout, a bullet of 5 furlongs in :58 and change on March 9.   He’s exiting back to back wins in Grade 3 races; the LeComte and the Risen Star.  Jones seems to be bringing him along splendidly, and it’s encouraging to note how he took the added 1/16 of a mile in the Risen Star last out.   He’s obviously the one you’ve got to beat.

Patena is a horse that has to live up to his hype.  It’s now or never for this guy.  Quietly, despite the presence of Stardom Bound, this colt has been IEAH Stables prime Kentucky Derby contender in the minds of many.  We’ll see if he’s worth it on Saturday.  An encouraging note for handicappers to play on is that his last victory was over Hooh Why, who went on to run well against Stardom Bound in the Santa Anita Oaks.   Yes, that was a filly, but evidently a decent one (especially on synthetics).   He ran well chasing Friesan Fire in the LeComte last out, and that was at a weight disadvantage that he won’t have to face today.  Hopefully we’ll be able to tell a lot about this guy in the post parade.  Dutrow has been training him up for this and if he lives up to the hype he might rocket up the Derby rankings.

Flying Pegasus overcame a wide post in the Risen Star to run well behind Friesan Fire for 2nd.  I get the feeling this son of Fusaichi Pegasus is starting to put it all together and I would not be surprised to see him both improve and threaten for the victory.   Trouble is, he’s running into a deeper field than last time out, so he’ll have to improve.  I could go either way with this guy. 

Papa Clem is the sneaky horse of this field.  If you’re feeling a bit of deja vu, it’s because we’ve seen this story before: a horse who ran big against Pioneer of the Nile comes east, brings their jockey with them, and tries to go synthetic-to-dirt.  Watch out.  This guy made an extremely sharp impression on many in the post parade of the Robert B. Lewis and then went on to run huge, finishing ahead of I Want Revenge, who went on to take the Gotham (Grade 3) last weekend.  He’s a Smart Strike colt, much like a certain someone we all know.  At odds of 8/1 he’s an intriguing play, although I’d prefer having a posted workout to give us an indication of how he takes to the surface.  We’ll have to wait for the post parade.  If he makes a similar impression as he did last month, he’s the value play here in the win pool. (NOTE: See Edit Note in Selections section – apparently Papa didn’t ship very well)

Free Country, Uno Mas, and Nowhere to Hide all look usable underneath.  I don’t know why, but I’m just not a Giant Oak guy. Especially not at 4/1.  If his odds trickle up a bit he’s worth including, but he’s just not one of my top choices.  Hopefully the Oak doesn’t make me choke on Saturday. 

I’ll play Papa Clem and Friesan Fire for the win, in a bit of a departure from the norm.  I know that’s a bit odd.  I just don’t want to put all my eggs in one basket.   Weather could also play a role on Saturday, so I’ll spread my chances out by going in two slightly different directions.  I’ll settle on Friesan Fire for the Superfecta play, and  I’ll add in Patena and Flying Pegasus for place, with Uno Mas and Free Country for show.  I guess I’ll add in Giant Oak for 4th.   If Nowhere to Hide runs here instead of the Tampa Bay Derby I might add him in as well. 

Selections:

  • $20 Win #8 Papa Clem (EDIT:  I’m hearing over on Facebook that Papa Clem did not ship very well and my have a scraped leg. If true it would be wise to downgrade a bit…I may not be placing this wager)
  • $20 Win #9 Friesan Fire
  • $.10 Superfecta: 9/3,5,8/3,5,6,7, 8/1,3,5,6,7,8 ($4.80)

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Categories : Fair Grounds, Friesan Fire, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Kentucky Derby Trail

Tampa Bay Derby a test for Hello Broadway

13 03 2009

Hello Broadway, a 3-year-old Broken Vow colt trained by Barclay Tagg, has been installed as the 3/1 morning line favorite in Saturday’s 29th running of the Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 3).  Eleven runners will take aim at the $300,000 purse in the 1 1/16 mile race, including General Quarters, winner of the Sam F. Davis (Grade 3) on February 14.   The field sets up like this:

Past performances available here

  1. Perfect Bull (D. Butler/ B. Rhone) 30/1
  2. Musket Man (D. Centeno/ D. Ryan) 8/1
  3. Nowhere to Hide (A. Garcia/ N. Zito) 5/1
  4. Hello Broadway (E. Coa/ B. Tagg) 3/1*
  5. Warrior’s Reward (C. Montalvo/ I. Wilkes) 12/1
  6. Sumo (J. Rose/ G. Motion) 6/1
  7. Join in the Dance (E. Trujillo/ T. Pletcher) 12/1
  8. General Quarters (T. McCarthy/ J. Lopez) 4/1
  9. Bear’s Rocket (R. Allen Jr./ R. Baker) 8/1
  10. Justontcallmejeri (J. Rios/ D. O’Neill) 12/1
  11. Top Seed (R. Maragh/ M. Trombetta) 20/1

The two horses that will rightly garner the most attention are obviously Hello Broadway and General Quarters, but this field looks evenly matched enough that an upset is not out of the question. 

Hello Broadway will be stretching out after running 2nd to Capt. Candyman Can in the Hutcheson (Grade 2) on January 30.   He’s been training well, having fired bullets on 3/10, 2/26, and 2/21.   He also fired a bullet 1/27 just before his effort in the Hutcheson, but that was at 4 furlongs and the more recent bullets were at 5 furlongs.  You get the feeling Tagg has been getting this guy to carry his speed a bit further.  That being said, I don’t think he wants him on the lead like he was in the Hutcheson.  A stalk and pounce trip would seem to be the recipe for success on Saturday.

General Quarters is a heckuva story.  A $20,000 maiden claimer who has risen to Grade 3 winner in the Sam F. Davis, he’s the horse for the course in this field.  He also seemingly relished the added distance of the Sam F. Davis and another effort close to that performance likely puts him in the winner’s circle.  The question is, while he’s obviously improved, is he a bounce candidate?  One could easily see this race setting up as a battle between the top two contenders in the stretch, and it might come down to who gets first jump and who has better position. 

Warrior’s Reward looks like a horse worth considering underneath at very generous odds.  The son of Medaglia d’ Oro has run well in his last two efforts, including a decent performance against the impressive Dunkirk last out at the allowance level over at Gulfstream.  Trainer Ian Wilkes might have himself a live one here.

Musket Man has run well against and even defeated General Quarters in recent memory, and did so over this surface.  He’s been training consistently well all year, so there’s no reason to anticipate a significantly decreased performance. 

Other horses who look worthy of consideration include Bear’s Rocket (possible pace factor), Sumo (who busted out a 96 Beyer breaking from the 10 hole in the Sam F. Davis), and Nowhere to Hide (Nick Zito’s sneaky recent maiden grad who has been getting better with each start). 

I’ll play Hello Broadway for the win.  I like Warriors Reward, Musket Man, and General Quarters underneath, with Sumo and Nowhere to Hide  and Bear’s Rocket rounding out the trifecta.  Sadly, there doesn’t appear to be a 10 cent Superfecta available, more’s the pity.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #4 Hello Broadway
  • $1 Trifecta:  4/2,5,8/2,3,5,6,8,9

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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Tampa Bay Downs

Sam F. Davis kicks off the Road to the Roses

13 02 2009

The Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs this Saturday kicks off the Road to the Roses challenge, and it looks like we’ve got a good one.  Contentions run deep as trainer Ken McPeek sends out Free Country to do battle with Atomic Rain, A.P. Cardinal, Musket Man, and a field of 7 other contenders all attempting to garner much needed graded stakes earning en route to the 2009 Kentucky Derby.   The field sets up like this:

  •  #1 Medaglia d’Onore (D. Centeno/Jamie Sanders) 20/1
  • #2 General Quarters (J. Lopez/Mark Miller) 8/1
  • #3 Player’s List (A. Cox/Wayne Rice) 50/1
  • #4 Mitchell Park (L. Gonzalez/Roy Lerman) 20/1
  • #5 Atomic Rain (J. Velazquez/Kelly Breen) 7/2
  • #6 Cliffy’s Future (P. Lopez/Darrin Miller) 10/1
  • #7 Free Country (K. Desormeaux/ Kenneth McPeek) 3/1*
  • #8 A.P. Cardinal (J. Bravo/Kiaran McLaughlin) 8/1
  • #9 Musket Man (J. Lezcano/Derek Ryan) 9/2
  • #10 Sumo (R. Douglas/Graham Motion) 12/1
  • #11 Top Seed (R. Allen Jr./ Michael Trombeta) 6/1

Free Country and Atomic Rain are familiar foes, having locked horns in the stretch last out in a Gulfstream Park allowance race going 1 1/8 miles.  Atomic Rain was involved up front in a pace duel that day and was able to dig in and hold on for a close second, beaten only by a neck by Free Country.  I’m not sure if Free Country will get the same pace setup today, as it looks like Atomic Rain could have things a bit easier on the front end if he’s able to get away.  Might this set things up for a reversal of fortunes?  Only time will tell.

A. P. Cardinal is an improving son of A.P. Indy that has progressed upwards on the Beyer scale in his last three races.  On paper he’s a shade below the top contenders, but it’s tough to count an improving runner for the Kiaran Mclaughlin barn out of a contest like this.  Taking a look at the competition he’s been facing in each of his last three races, you notice the names Vineyard Haven, Old Fashioned, and Danger to Society.  I expect an improved performance out of A.P. Cardinal on Saturday, but I’ll take a wait and see approach before predicting a victory. 

Musket Man is an interesting and undefeated runner for trainer Derek Ryan.  Clearly he fits with this field as a legitimate contender based on his recent Beyer figure of 92 in the Pasco.  He seems to like the track at Tampa, but today he’ll be asked to go significantly farther than his career long of 7 furlongs.  He’s been training well and figures to be right there turning for home if he can stalk effectively and stay within striking distance of Atomic Rain.

Two  other horses worth considering in this field are General Quarters and Top Seed.   Genearal Quarters ran second to Musket Man last out and also has a close second to Top Seed two races back.  He’s a Sky Mesa colt, so he ought to be able to stretch out for the distance of the Sam F. Davis.  Top Seed would be a much stronger contender if he hadn’t drawn the extreme outside, but do note that he prevailed from the 12 hole last out on this track, meaning he can’t be left out of the equation.

I’m going to go with the Ken McPeek runner, Free Country for the win.  McPeek has had some down luck lately, losing potential Derby threat Danger to Society to Rick Dutrow after finishing 7th in the Holy Bull earlier this month. Remember that this is the guy credited with finding Curlin.  McPeek has had a smashing season so far in his return to training, and part of me would simply like to see him get a legitimate Derby hopeful on the right path by prevailing here in the Sam F. Davis.   You won’t hear me argue, however, with anyone who decides to take Atomic Rain for the win, for as I mentioned earlier the pace may be more favorable to him today.

Underneath I’ll cover Atomic Rain, Top Seed, and A. P. Cardinal.  I’ll add in General Quarters and Musket Man for show.

$1 Trifecta:  7/5,8,11/2,5,8,9,11 ($12)

In the other major prep of the day covered in the Road to the Roses, I like Chocolate Candy to continue his march on the Derby trail by prevailing in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Tampa Bay Downs

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