Old Fashioned favored in Arkansas Derby rematch with Win Willy

10 04 2009

When last we saw them, Win Willy was surging past Old Fashioned in the stretch to win by 2 1/2 lengths in the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park.  This Saturday the two will square off again along with 8 other contenders in the 73rd running of the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, which will be televised nationally on ESPN2 at 5:41 CT.  The field sets up like this:

Past Performances available here

  1. Captain Cherokee (A. Gryder/ S. Asmussen) 20/1
  2. Papa Clem (R. Bejarano/ G. Stute) 6/1
  3. Flat Out (J. Garcia/ C. Dickey) 10/1
  4. Poltergeist (Q. Hamilton/ D. Van Hemel) 20/1
  5. Ziegfeld (J. Court/ D. Romans) 12/1
  6. Flying Private (I. Ocampo/ D. Wayne Lukas) 6/1
  7. Summer Bird (C. Rosier/ T. Ice) 30/1
  8. Old Fashioned (T. Thompson/ L. Jones) 9/5*
  9. Win Willy (M. Berry/ M. Robertson) 7/2
  10.  Danger to Society (C. Velasquez/ R. Dutrow) 6/1

The Rebel was characterized by a speedy pace set by Silver City, which likely cost the Larry Jones trainee Old Fashioned in the stretch as Win Willy was able to overcome him and pull the upset.  The pace of the Arkansas Derby should be a bit slower.  Coupled with the added half furlong of ground, this one should set up nicely for Old Fashioned.  After all, not long ago he was a popular favorite on many power rankings for the 2009 Kentucky Derby. 

 

Jones will almost certainly have Old Fashioned attempt to relax more this weekend.  He’s removed highly acclaimed jockey Ramon Dominguez in favor of jockey T.J. Thompson.   The two have combined for a 23% success rate over the last year in 176 races, so clearly they know how to get the job done.  While the speedy Silver City is obviously not here this weekend, we do get another likely pace setter in the form of Papa Clem, an eye appealing son of Smart Strike out of the Gary Stute barn. 

Silver City went the opening half mile of the Rebel in :46 flat.  The likely pace for the Arkansas Derby should be considerably slower.  I don’t think it’ll be as slow as Papa Clem got away with in the slop during the Louisiana Derby, but I doubt he pushes it hard enough to go sub :47 over the opening half mile.  Old Fashioned will likely tuck in behind Papa Clem and look to get the jump on him turning for home.  

Win Willy’s victories have all been against quick opening fractions, so if he’s to catch Old Fashioned and Papa Clem he’ll likely need them to be going at it a bit early on.   I will say this about ‘Willy – I thought his late move in the Rebel was one of the more powerful I’ve seen all year.   As a son of 2001 Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos, the colt sold for just $25,000 at the September, 2007 Keeneland auction sale, and finds himself now competing (and in the case of the Rebel, winning) against horses who cost over ten times that much when originally purchased.   I like this horse quite a bit and have been aggressively ranking him in my own Derby power rankings, but it doesn’t look like this race sets up his way on paper.  I expect him to be flying late, but this one really looks like Old Fashioned’s to lose. 

An interesting x-factor for this race is the Danger to Society, who makes his inaugural start for much maligned trainer Rick Dutrow.  We’ve been waiting to see this guy all Spring, and admittedly he’s a horse I took a flyer on in the Road to the Roses challenge.  He seems to have been working fairly well leading up to this, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him cranked and ready to roll for Dutrow on first asking.  He definitely offers value to those who refuse to eat chalk in this one. 

I’ll likely let odds determine the final play in this one, as I’m hesitant to swallow too much chalk myself here on Old Fashioned, especially considering how fond I am of Win Willy.   Looking over the past performances here the night before the race,  I am inclined to make Old Fashioned the top pick.   I’ll play Papa Clem, Danger to Society, and Win Willy in place.   Add in Poltergeist and Flying Private for show, with Captain Cherokee and Flat Out on the bottom of the Superfecta.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #8 Old Fashioned
  • $.10 Superfecta:  8/2,9,10/2,4,6,9,10/1,2,3,4,6,9,10 ($6.00)

Best of luck to all!


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Old Fashioned

Saturday Gulfstream picks

30 01 2009

Hot off an exciting Friday that saw Captain Candyman Can prevail in the Hutcheson (where highly touted Break Water Edison finished a disappointing 6th), Guflstream Park comes right back with an even more thrilling Saturday card that features the Grade 1 Donn Handicap, the Grade 3 Holy Bull, and the much anticipated debut of Barbaro’s little brother, Nicanor.  As if all of that were not enough, Gulfstream beckons horseplayers from all over the land with 10 cent superfectas and a much needed 50 cent Pick 4 sequence. 

For anyone in need, you can access a free copy of the Gulfstream past performances over at the home page for the TBA.

Race 7: The Grade 3 Holy Bull  (1 1/8 Miles)

  • #1 Bruce N Autumn (12/1)
  • #2 Danger to Society (5/1)
  • #3 Bear’s Rocket (20/1)
  • #4 Saratoga Sinner (12/1)
  • #5 El Crespo (12/1)
  • #6 Rockland (8/1)
  • #7 Stately Character (20/1)
  • #8 Idol Maker (6/1)
  • #9 Nowhere to Hide (8/1)
  • #10 West Side Bernie (3/1*)
  • #11 Beethoven (4/1)

Several horses who hope to figure prominently on the Kentucky Derby trail highlight the 20th running of the Holy Bull.  Beethoven and West Side Bernie, the likely favorites, have each drawn outside post positions for the two-turn route, and could be compromised by this development.  Might that set things up for a thief from the inside? 

From looking over the selections of the handicappers in the Saturday edition of the DRF, I see I’m not alone in boosting the chances of the promising Danger to Society.  He’s an intriguing son of Harlan’s Holiday who is undefeated in two starts.  While it’s tough to figure out just what quality of opponents he’s been facing, he could get a great trip here today stalking from off the pace.  I especially like that he’s got a victory under his belt at the demanding 9 furlong distance, something neither Beethoven or West Side Bernie can say. 

I consider myself enough of a Beethoven fan at the moment to anticipate that he’ll run well on Saturday.  He’s been flattered now with Captain Candyman Can’s win in the Hutcheson on Friday, as he defeated him last time out along with Giant Oak.  I think this makes Beethoven the class of the field and the obvious win candidate on paper.  My only problem with West Side Bernie is that he exits the Delta Jackpot, and we all know historically that race tends to be inflated in terms of class and worth. 

Another interesting runner to consider here on the bottom of exotic tickets is the Smarty Jones colt Rockland.  He’d have to step up big time to win here, and I don’t predict that happening, but it’s hard to knock his recent form.  True, he only stepped up to the lower allowance level last time out, but it’s still nice to see a Beyer improvement from 77 to 82 his first time against winners. 

Stately Character is another that warrants some consideration.  He offers great value at 20/1 and should be charging late if he gets something to run at.  Speaking of which, from a pace standpoint, this one does look a little curious.  I’m guessing Idol Maker and Bear’s Rocket should be a part of whatever is going on early on.   Danger to Society could be involved as well, or he could stalk.  Either way I think the pace setup is very favorable to him.  El Crespo is the x-factor here to me as it’s any-one’s guess how his recent turf form will translate to dirt in his first try over that surface. 

For my superfecta ticket, I’ll play Danger to Society for the win over Beethoven, West Side Bernie, and Stately Character.  I’ll add in Rockland and El Crespo underneath for show.  Rounding out the ticket I’ll add in Idol Maker and Bruce N’ Autumn for 4th.

2/7,10,11/5,6,7,10,11/1,5,6,7,8,10,11 ($6.00)

 

Race 9:  The Grade 1 Donn Handicap (1 1/8 Miles)

  • #1 Finallymadeit (12/1)
  • #2 Albertus Maximus (4/1)
  • #3 Anak Nakal (10/1)
  • #4 Bullsbay (8/1)
  • #5 A.P. Arrow (10/1)
  • #6 On Board Again (20/1)
  • #7 Arson Squad (3/1)
  • #8 Sir Whimsy (12/1)
  • #9 Great Hunter (15/1)
  • #10 Einstein (5/2*)

The Donn stacks up as a formidable feature race on the Gulfstream card. This is the kind of feature that would be the centerpiece of that crazy “Take Back Saturday” idea I’m always on about.  We’ve got Albertus Maximus, Einstein, and a very sharp looking Arson Squad all lined up to do battle.  Every runner in the race with the exception of Bullsbay has posted a 100 Beyer at some point in their career.  Want to know the crazy thing though?  I actually really like Bullsbay here as a value play.  I’ll explain more in a bit.

First, let’s look at the obvious.  The top two win candidates on paper have to be considered Einstein and Arson Squad.  Einstein gets the outside draw here, but he’s classy enough to overcome that.  I usually think of Einstein as more of a turf runner (as many do), but he’s showed that he can run competitively on the dirt, as evidenced by his win in the Clark Handicap and his 2nd place finish to eventual Horse of the Year winner Curlin in the Stephen Foster.   Even better for Einstein, 9 furlongs seems to be his sweet spot.  I think he’s got a big chance here, but the value likely won’t be much.  He’s a definite horse to cover in the exotics.

Arson Squad is another to keep an eye on.  If you’ve been following the mini-feud between Andy Beyer and trainer Rick Dutrow in the Daily Racing Form over Dutrow’s dramatically improved colt This Ones for Phil, you’re no doubt wondering “if Dutrow could do that with a career best 80 Beyer runner, what might he do with Arson Squad here?”  The answer is simple.  Don’t look for any dramatic 20 point increase, but this is clearly a horse in sharp form that is to be respected in this contest.  The one thing that worries me with him is that he’s seemingly gotten better with a few races under his belt following a layoff, and he’s been off since late November.  That being said, he certainly improved once entering Dutrow’s barn, and has been working pretty well in the mornings.  He’s another player with a big shot, but I’ll once again probably look elsewhere for value in the superfecta.

Albertus Maximus is probably going to wind up the 3rd choice on the tote board at post time, but there are questions with him as well.  He’s not exactly known for his true dirt form and is seemingly a better synthetic runner, although do note that he has a win and a place in two starts over the conventional surface.  He’s probably the hardest horse to get a read on in the entire field and could show up huge or be a huge bust. 

My upset special?  I’m going with the dark horse, the only guy not yet in the 100 Beyer club.  That’s right: Bullsbay.   I know, it may look like madness at first glance, but here me out on this.  First, he’s from trainer Graham Motion’s barn, who has always been one of my favorites.   Two races back he defeated a field that included Belmont Stakes winner Da’ Tara.  He got a good primer under his belt going 8 furlongs last out and raylling for 2nd place over the Gulfstream main track.  Lastly, he’s a Tiznow…and one that figures to offer some value on the board.  Make no mistake, I”m not necessarily predicting he’ll win here, as I’d expect either Einstein or Arson Squad do wind up in the winner’s circle.  I just think he’s got enough of a chance here to be a decent value play.  Especially in the superfecta. 

4/2,7,10/1,2,3,7,10/1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10 ($8.40)

 

As for Nicanor’s debut?  I’m going to sit and watch this one.  Don’t get me wrong, I’ll have a pick 4 ticket in play that will likely have him covered, but I’m not going to heap any expectations on the colt until we see what we have in him.  It’s enough for now that he’s in racing and that at least some of the same genes that went into Barbaro are back on the track.  Anything on top of that is gravy.   We’ve also got the Santa Monia at Santa Anita, but with Indian Blessing’s scratch that race got a lot less exciting.  Ventura all the way for what it’s worth. 

As always, be sure to check for late scratches and or changes.  Best of luck to everyone.


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Categories : Barbaro, Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail

Zenyatta goes for win #7 in the Clement L. Hirsch

1 08 2008
Zenyatta - undefeated daughter of Street Cry and winner of her first 6 career starts
Zenyatta – undefeated daughter of Street Cry

The sensational four-year-old filly Zenyatta returns to action on Saturday in the 28th running of the Clement L. Hirsch Handicap at Del Mar.  The daughter of Street Cry has turned in 6 consecutive victories to begin her career, including 4 straight against Grade 1 and Grade 2 competition.  Eight challengers will attempt to end Zenyatta’s unbeaten streak, including main rivals Tough Tiz’s Sis and Romance is Diane.

The field for the Clement L. Hirsch with jockeys and odds is as follows:

  1. Place Lake (A. Quinonez) 30/1
  2. Model (M.C. Baze) 30/1
  3. Romance is Diane (R. Bejarano) 10/1
  4. West Coast Swing (T. Baze) 10/1
  5. SIlver Z (J. Talamo) 20/1
  6. Tough Tiz’s Sis (A. Gryder) 4/1
  7. SIlver Swallow (D. Flores) 10/1
  8. Zenyatta (M.E. Smith) 3/5*
  9. Dawn After Dawn (V. Espinoza) 15/1

Pace wise, I’m expecting Silver Z to be the front runner for much of the way through the 1 1/4 mile distance of the Clement L. Hirsch.   Dawn after Dawn will likely have to gun it from the outside post position as well. 

All this should set up nicely as expected for the big stars of the race, Zenyatta and Tough Tiz’s Sis.  Don’t count out the versatile Romance is Diane though.  Note that she was just beaten by Zenyatta and Tough Tiz’s Sis in the El Encino at Santa Anita back in January.  Further, Romance is Diane is a noteworthy 4 for 7 lifetime going 1 1/4 miles.

Several other longer odds runners look very intriguing to use underneath. Silver Swallow did not disgrace herself against the mighty Zenyatta and Tough Tiz’s Sis last out in the Vanity Handicap.  It’s probably too much to ask for her to run past Zenyatta in the stretch, but surely she’s a logical contender for the exotics.

West Coast Swing is another useful runner that appears to be extremely talented.  She’s got 4 wins in 5 lifetime starts, with many of those wins being very impressive on paper. The only problem is that she’s never been this distance yet and two of her least inspiring races were on the synthetics – although she did romp to a 10 length score at Arlington Park so it’s not really too much to worry about.

The big question in my mind is going to be whether Tough Tiz’s Sis can hold off Zenyatta in the stretch. This one might be a battle for the ages.  Zenyatta had to dig down deep to pull off the win last time, and there’s really no way of knowing for sure whether she’ll come back better or worse for that effort.  It wouldn’t take much for the daughter of Tiznow to pull the upset. 

I’m still going to use Zenyatta on top – I just think this may be her biggest test since facing Ginger Punch back in January.  Tough Tiz’s SIs and Romance is Diane will be my underneath exacta plays.  I’ll add in West Coast Swing and Silver Swallow to fill out the trifecta.

8/3,6/3,4,6,7


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Indian Blessing in for a Test

1 08 2008

2-year-old Juvenile Filly Champion Indian Blessing

Two-year-old Juvenile Filly champion Indian Blessing headlines a short field in the Grade 1 Test at Saratoga on Saturday. Now in the midst of her three-year-old campaign, the daughter of Indian Charlie displayed a new ability to stalk and pounce last time out while romping to a five length victory in the Grade 1 Prioress at Belmont on July 5th.

Five other contenders will square off against Indian Blessing in the 7 furlong Test.  From the rail, the runners with odds and jockeys sets up like this:

  1. Tequilas Dayjur (Edgar Prado) 15/1
  2. Palanka City (Eibar Coa) 8/1
  3. Sweet Hope (Ramon Dominguez) 5/2
  4. Ms. Margaret H. (Robby Albarado) 30/1
  5. J Z Warrior (Kent Desormeaux) 12/1
  6. Indian Blessing (John Velazquez) 3/5*

The key to the Test for Indian Blessing and the rest of the field will be the early pace.  On paper, it appears that it could be white hot.  J Z Warrior will likely show speed from the 5 hole.  In fact, she could wind up as lone speed if the others decide to rate behind her.  Indian Blessing and Sweet Hope could go either way and contest the early pace or sit back in stalking position. Tequila Dayjur and Palanka City figure to rate comfortably and will hope for some zip in front of them that they can try to jump on turning for home.  Ms. Margaret H. would appear to be the closer of the pack.

If Indian Blessing is able to rate comfortably behind J Z Warrior in the early going, this whole race could be a foregone conclusion.  That being said, prior to her win in the Prioress Indian Blessing was something of a pure front runner.  The scary thing with Indian Blessing is that she’s only won 1 of her last 3 starts, yet the Beyer speed figures are clearly climbing.  It seems to have been the right move cutting her back to sprinting distance and she’s handled the tricky 7 furlong mark here at Saratoga before.  Also note that her debut came last August here at Saratoga.  It goes without saying that she’s a force to be reckoned with.

Of the rest of the field, I expect Sweet Hope will take quite a bit of play exiting a 108 Beyer run last out in a non graded Delaware Park stakes.  On the one hand you can say she had trouble classing up when out in Hollywood for the Railbird last May. Still, that was on synthetics, and her last two dirt races do look formidable underneath.  Today’s 7 furlong distance would not appear to be a concern as Sweet Hope owns a win and a show in three such starts lifetime.

Palanka City comes into the race off of three straight victories.  You’ve got to like that kind of form and her victory in the Miss Preakness (which I saw firsthand) was impressive to say the least.  I have a feeling this may be the main contender with the best shot to upset Indian Blessing, but she will need to step up today.  It is most impressive though that as she’s progressed forward class wise she has turned in better and better races.

I’ll play Indian Blessing as the obvious selection on top, with Sweet Hope and Palanka City underneath in the exacta.  I’d probably cover the rest of the field underneath if trifecta wagering is available.  Reason being – J Z Warrior could hang on for a share if loose on the lead up front, and I wouldn’t count out the closer Ms Margaret H if they did indeed get a hot pace up front. 

There won’t be a lot of value available here, so don’t expect to break the bank in this one.  Your best bet at a price is a surprise for place or show.

6/2,3/1,2,3,4,5


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Sunday handicapping selections – Pimlico

1 06 2008

Race 1: Md 12500 3↑ (6 Furlongs)

  • #4 Zero Coupon (8/5*)
  • #2 Final Authority (9/5)
  • #1 Silver Bay (6/1)

Looks like a two horse race on paper to me – and a rematch at that.  #2 Final Authority got the lead and the rail last out when facing today’s favorite, #4 Zero Coupon.  Final Authority was able to hang on for 3rd that day while Zero Coupon ran a disappointing 4th.  I look for a very similar race today, although I expect Zero Coupon to take a step forward today and perhaps turn the tables on Final Authority.  Zero Coupon could be stalking nicely as they turn for home.  A perfect trip might be just what the doctor ordered to wind up in the winner’s circle.  Whoever wins the battle between these two is your race winner.  I thought #1 SIlver Bay was eligible to move forward and might find himself up near the lead early on, but he’s a notch below the top two.

Race 2: Clm 10000  F+M 3↑  (1 1/16 Miles)

  • #4 Hello Easy Street (4/1)
  • #5 Really Nice (1/1*)
  • #1 Swear To It (7/2)

Hard to take a stand against the favorite #5 Really Nice here. The 9 time winner was beaten chalk at the $20k claiming level last time out. She’s easily capable of handling today’s distance and challengers are likely going to have to deal with her on the lead.  On the downside, she is a 7-year-old so there’s not really any room for improvement.  Be careful of taking at too low of odds.  1/1 just isn’t very attractive at all here, but she is capable.  #1 Swear to It exits a pretty good race last out where she faced some of the tougher State-breds on the track, including Four Karats, Vicar’s Vixen, and Pick Up The Tempo.  Like the favorite, Swear to It seems to prefer today’s route distance. Only concern is that she may not be tough enough in the stretch.  #3 Hello Easy Street warrants consideration here as well.  She should be coming late and if Really Nice starts to tire in the stretch, it could be this 4-year-old who takes a step forward today and steals the victory.

Race 3: Md 25000 F+M 3↑ (1 Mile – Turf)

  • #9 Najdiah (2/1*)
  • #2 Count Backwards (3/1)
  • #11 Holy Akadya (6/1)

Another chalky looking race on paper.  #9 Najdiah makes two moves that warrant expecting improvement; she takes the hood off and moves back to the grass where she does her best running.  I think she looks tough to beat here in today’s 3rd race.  #2 Count Backwards drops in from the Maiden Special Weight level and her usual race looks good enough to contend here.  #11 Holy Akadya is an interesting looking first timer who must first clear the Also Eligible list to draw into today’s field. 

Race 4: Md Sp Wt 28k 3YO (6 Furlongs)

  • #4 Short Dancer (1/1*)
  • #1 Plane Image (3/1)
  • #6 Loveme Lovemenot (6/1)

Another race, another formidable favorite to contend with. #4 Short Dancer adds blinkers to the J. Arce/S. Lake jockey-trainer combo tandem and enjoys a 14 point advantage in terms of best last Beyer speed figure.  #1 Plane Image is eligible to improve after breaking slowly and getting hung wide as the beaten chalk last out in his debut  I liked #5 Hesagoldmine and #6 Loveme Lovemenot about equal for the bottom of the exotic wagers. 

Race 5: Clm 25000 N2L F+M 3↑ (5 Furlongs – Turf)

  • #7 Grazezing (5/2)
  • #8 Little Topper (6/1)
  • #6 Kelly’s calling ( 9/2)

A very competitive 4th race could be a spot for players to look to make money. #7 Grazezing should get a great trip stalking the early speed and at 5 furlongs will need to be near the front to ensure a good finish.  #8 Little Topper really perked up on the grass two races back. #6 Kelly’s Calling should also be respected here. If she takes to the turf a bit better in her 2nd try, she could be a major factor in the stretch.  #3 Lady Grandeur should be coming late to threaten for the exotics. 

Race 6 Clm 7500 N2L F+M 3↑ (1 1/16 Miles)

  • #5 Miss Elloree (5/1)
  • #3 Greener Pastures (7/2)
  • #4 No Exposure (3/1*)

A very competitive conditional claimer in today’s 6th at Pimlico.  I tend to prefer recent form in such races, and #5 Miss Elloree fits the bill exiting a 6 length score to break her maiden last out.  #3 Greener Pastures drops in from open $12k claiming ranks after a turf try last out.  Trainer Hamilton Smith is an ace taking them from turf to the main track. #4 No Exposure was beaten chalk last out and retains the services of J. Arce.

Race 7: OC 32k/N3X 3↑ (5 Furlongs – Turf)

  • #5 What a Monster (7/2)
  • #3 Lycurgus (3/1)
  • #7 Skeleton Crew (9/2)

Depending on how this one sets up, #7 Skeleton Crew could either be on the lead or in a duel for the front. If it’s the former he could wind up hanging on to the end here.  Regardless, #5 What a Monster should be perfectly placed in striking distance turning for home.  #3 Lycurgus could be coming late, but if there’s not a lot of pace to run at he’ll need to be much the best in the stretch to prevail.

Race 8: Alw 30000 N1X F+M 3↑ (6 Furlongs)

  • #4 Camp Spirit (9/5*)
  • #3 Gus’s Axios (3/1)
  • #11 Abbicadabra (5/1)

You get the feeling #4 Camp Spirit is going to be singled on a number of pick 4 and pick tickets. The real challenger I could see is #3 Gus’s Axios, who could return as something to close to what she was in 2007 – although the workout tabs aren’t exactly heart stopping.  #11 Abbicadabra is better than that last race shows.  Drawing the outside will likely ruin her chances, but I feel like this gal can run with the other contenders.

Race 9: Md 2500 F+M 3↑ (1 1/8 Miles Turf)

  • #1 Tiffany’s Charm (6/1)
  • #7 Little Red Bullet (5/2*)
  • #2 Found Daylight (8/1)

#1 Tiffany’s Charm had a nice little turf debut on 4/24 finishing a close 3rd after having a bid in the stretch.  #7 Little Red Bullet is a must use in the exotics due to the drop from the Maiden Special Weight $27k level and the addition of blinkers.  #2 Found Daylight just ran back on 5/26, and it wasn’t a bad debut at all.  If she doesn’t scratch this one might be an interesting play.

As always, check for scratches/changes.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Pimlico

Saturday Pimlico Picks

24 05 2008

I’m headed down to old hilltop today with the family, as it’s already an absolutely gorgeous day outside in the Baltimore area.  We’ve got 10 races on the card, mostly of the maiden claiming and lower claiming variety.  We do have one featured race on the card, the $50,000 Shine Again Stakes, going 1 1/16 miles  for Maryland bred fillies and mares who have yet to win a stakes race.

Here’s my thoughts on the card in case anyone is playing along.  As of right now I plan on covering the Met Mile and some other races tomorrow (Sunday). 

Race 1:

  • #1 Love Tour (1/1*)
  • #4 Warwick Moon (2/1)
  • #2 Court Band (7/2)

Race 2:

  • #7 Cape Codder (9/2)
  • #3 Cee My Tizzy Run (7/5*)
  • #4 Barb’s Talking (15/1)
  • Note: also kind of interested in #1 Glyndon Park at 5/1

Race 3:

  • #3 Tripped Over (4/1)
  • #6 Dr Ec (12/1)
  • #4 Leroy Chop Chop (7/2*)

Race 4:

  • #4 Campfire Burning (2/1)
  • #1 Diffraction (8/5*)
  • #7 Calvin K (10/1)
  • Note: two others intrigue me as well: #1A Yacht Man (co favorite at 8/5*) , and #6 Hola C. Bright (12/1)

Race 5:

  • #6 Wilderness Terrace (5/2*)
  • #2 Social Register (8/1)
  • #8 No Flashlight (20/1)
  • Note: tough race if the Also Eligibles draw in – #9 Julia Tuttle (7/2) and #12 Scenery Change (3/1) also look plenty tough in here

Race 6:

  • #1 Wire Whip / #1A The Student  (1/1*)
  • #7 Bearstein (6/1)
  • #3 Jimmy’s Pride 4/1)
  • Note: #2 Fortunate Code looms a potential longshot upset at 10/1.

Race 7:

  • #4 Queen of Laughs (7/2)
  • #8 Only Me (4/1)
  • #3 Disco’s Daughter (8/1)
  • Note: playing against the favorite here, #7 Pure Fantasy (3/1*).  Also think that #2 Tejano Sea could be useful underneath, especially at 20/1.

Race 8 – the $50,000 Shine Again Stakes (feature race):

  • #5 Come Fly Away (2/1*)
  • #3 Take a Check (4/1)
  • #2 Real Property (3/1)
  • #6 All Smiles (8/1)

Race 9:

  • #4 Military Courage (7/2)
  • #2 On the Prowl (4/1)
  • #7 Polar Front (5/1)

Race 10:

  • #1 Ben the Beast (4/1)
  • #2 Legal Trouble (3/1*)
  • #4  Tigger Too (8/1)

As always, be sure to check for changes and scratches before wagering.  Good luck to everyone and enjoy the beautiful day.


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Thursday Santa Anita Selections – 1/3/08

2 01 2008
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Thursday marks the return to racing action at Santa Anita as we depart from the festive holiday season and once again get back into the proverbial grind.   We did pretty good at Santa Anita on Monday, going 7 for 10 I believe (I’m a bit too lazy to double check now) and caught a couple of decent long-shots along the way.   We’ll try and keep that good karma flowing as it’s been so far so good for the Aspiring Horseplayer in 2008.  

We’ve got 8 races on the card today, including 2 pick 4 sequences that we’ll focus our betting attention on.  There aren’t any graded stakes to wet the appetite with today but there are a few extremely competitive races on the card.   So without further adieu, let’s get started and hopefully add some money to the bankroll for an exciting weekend of racing action. Read the rest of this entry »


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Santa Anita Selections – Friday 12/28/07

28 12 2007
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Friday arrives and gives us a chance to “take a little hair off the dog that bit me” on Wednesday.  As predicted, we didn’t fare so well in the opening day at Santa Anita as we would have liked.  Our pride was greatly besmirched.  I’ve spent the better part of this morning alternating between reviewing the Santa Anita card and playing Candy-land with my 3 year old.  Perhaps this new found distraction is the key to awakening my inner horseplayer?  

Today’s card at Santa Anita isn’t very exciting.  We’ve got 8 nondescript races highlighted by the $200,000 guaranteed pick 4 in races 5 through 8, which is where we’ll focus our betting attention for the day.   My picks came up rather chalky, but I still wanted to get this out there for those of you that wish to play along.   As always, be sure to check for scratches and/or late changes and adjust your selections accordingly.  Read the rest of this entry »


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