Preakness Full Card Selections

20 05 2011

It just wouldn’t be Preakness without some picks here at the Aspiring Horseplayer, would it?   Much has happened between the last time I had the opportunity to post and now.  Most significantly, I managed to nail my first Kentucky Derby winner correctly since Barbaro in 2006 when Animal Kingdom soared home at 21/1.  Feels good to get that monkey off my back!  That was likely the loudest I’ve screamed since another certain chestnut who was the subject of many a post here race his last race.   The victory connected my hometown roots with my Derby selections once again – as Fair Hill (home of the late Barbaro and now Animal Kingdom) was the spot were my lifelong love affair with horse racing first began within walking distance of my boyhood home.  What remains to be seen is if my streak of correct Preakness selections stretching back to Curlin in 2007 is now about to change as well?

Will there be enough magic in the Maryland air to bring us yet again within sight of the elusive Triple Crown that has remained just out of reach since the first month of my life in 1978?  In 24 hours we’ll know for sure.  Before we get to the big event, let’s spend some time going over the undercard races to see if we can pick a few winners.

Race 1:  Alw 31000 N1X (6 Furlongs)

We start things off with a 6 furlong conditional allowance event on the main track.  This one is for the early birds as post time is slated for 10:45AM.  Speed seemed to be holding up fairly well from what I could tell on Friday, so I wouldn’t have any concern going with a front runner if you land on one – but definitely pay attention to how that plays all day.  I went with #2 Boreal Forest as the horse most likely to shake loose in the opener and look to wire the field.  #8 Forest King has served as his main rival in the last two starts, and they appear destined to renew that matchup today.  If you’re looking for a price horse, #3 Devilish Gait makes some sense rolling from farther back in the pack at 12/1.  I might be tempted to use #1 Issues And Answers and #9 Technique (homer Graham Motion pick) on the bottom of the exotics.

  • #2 Boreal Forest (9/5*)
  • #8 Forest King (7/2)
  • #3 Devilish Gait (12/1)

Race 2:  Hcp 75002 (1 1/16 Miles)

A field of nine Maryland-breds awaits in the 2nd race of the day.  #2 Joel’s Touch may be able to get loose on the lead in a race that looks fairly paceless on paper, which would boost his chances significantly, but it’s hard to back a horse that is 0 for 5 at the distance and appears to want shorter.  #5 Heavenstmurgatroid took a huge move forward last out, and will probably have every bounce player in the country betting against him.  He should get a nice trip once again and anything close to that last effort would be good enough. #9 No Brakes may be the best horse of the field, but he didn’t get a lot of pace to close into and the post position Gods were less than kind.  Another horse I thought rated a shot is #1 Say Now at 12/1.  This horse has won 3 of his last 4 starts and drew a favorable rail position, although he has been off since February.  Lastly, there’s West Virginia invader #6 Across The Wind at 10/1.  Winner of 4 straight starts last fall who, judging by the last 3 efforts, may have found his way again.

  • #5 Heavenstmurgatroid (8/5*)
  • #9 No Brakes (9/5)
  • #1 Say Now (12/1)

Race 3:  Alw 29000 N1X (1 1/16 Miles – Turf)

The presence of #6 Battleground and #8 Gotta Believe Me should ensure a decent pace in the 3rd race of the day on the turf track.  I thought this might set things up very well for the man of the hour, trainer Graham Motion, and his #5 Golden Causeway making his first career turf start.  He should be able to sit stalk behind the leaders and if he takes to the Pimlico grass will have a big chance.  Likewise, there are positives about Graham’s other entry #11 Rampaige coming out of flat effort on the Keeneland plastic. #9 Double Eagle has the gaudy speed figures that many will focus on, but is clearly beatable having not won since last June.  Similarly, #12 Live The Dash has some impressive figures, but on paper is a one-turn sprinter.  Perhaps Julien Leparoux can get Majestictroubadour figured out and turned back in the right direction?

  • #5 Golden Causeway (3/1)
  • #9 Double Eagle (5/2)
  • #11 Rampaige (10/1)

Race 4: Grade 3 Allaire Dupont Distaff (1 1/16 Miles)

This race is all about #4 Life At Ten.  If the horse that many felt was a lock for the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic last fall before a post time debacle of epic proportions show up in her 2nd start of the year, this one could be over before it’s run.  The main threat may come from the former Black Eyed Susan champion #2 Payton D’oro, who has the strong tandem of trainer Larry Jones and jockey Gabriel Saez in her corner.  #6 Check Point is a fairly consistent daughter of Posse who should be able to give a good account of herself as well.  Then you have #3 Decelerator, who should be on the gas trying to gun for the lead. If she gets there, an upset could be in the making.  Still think that even not on her best that Life At Ten is simply too much for this field.

  • #4 Life At Ten (4/5*)
  • #2 Payton D’oro (4/1)
  • #3 Decelerator (5/1)

Race 5: OC 25000 N2X (5 Furlongs – Turf)

Turf sprints – my arch nemesis.  I’ll try to keep things simple here.  #4 Princess Malka exists back to back scores against similar, the last victory came despite being steadied.   With Sheldon Russell in the irons, I think this is the horse to beat.  #11 Toni’s The Won also exits consecutive victories, but drew a bit more unfavorably for a 5 furlong sprint.  Then there’s #8 Easy Ashley who like the others mentioned has a mini winning streak going – but will return to the grass this time out. #1 Belarus should be moving well late and may have a chance to spring the upset.

  • #4 Princess Malka (9/2)
  • #11 Toni’s The Won (5/1)
  • #8 Easy Ashley (7/2*)

Race 6: Chick Lang Sprint (6 Furlongs)

This is one tough race.  You could make a case for each of the 9 entries to win this thing as they aren’t separated by much.  I gave the checkmark to Todd Pletcher’s #4 Escort, who defeated 12 and posted a huge speed figure at Gulfstream 3 races back.  I”m willing to forgive the Keeneland debacle last out.   Since it’s such a contentious field, I’m also going to take a swing with #2 Chipshot at 10/1 on my deepest exotics.  If you’ve been burned by this guy before, today may be the day to catch him at a decent price.  #6 Road Ready looks ready to roll as well, but you can’t overlook the class of the field in #5 Vengeful Wildcat at 3/1.

  • #3 Vengeful Wildcat (3/1*)
  • #4 Escort (7/2)
  • #2 Chipshot (10/1)

Race 7: JW Murphy Sprint (1 Mile – Turf)

We move back to the grass for the 7th race.  This field was somewhat difficult for me to separate.  Starting from the inside, you have the always dangerous Ramon Dominguez aboard #1 Master Dunker.  Ultimately I liked the two outside runners best, #9 Humble And Hungry - who’s van I think I passed on the road shipping in from Sagamore, and the classy #10 Joe’s Blazing Aaron for trainer Michael Maker.  #4 Lil Bit O Fun and #1 Master Dunker have me on the fence about using, and the longshot I’d like to play on the bottom of my tickets is #7 Broad Rule.

  • #9 Humble And Hungry (5/1)
  • #10 Joes Blazing Aaron (5/2*)
  • #7 Broad Rule (12/1)

Race 8:  Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap (6 Furlongs)

Ready for another sprint? #3 Nathan’s H Q should be be the speed in this race, and  that should set him up nicely for a big run.  I”m not a big fan of the 8/5 favorite, #5 Ventana as I feel I’ve burned too many tickets over my life on that horse when he runs for minor awards.  #8 Safety Check looks interesting with a strong debut effort for the 2011 campaign last out.  I feel obligated to use #7 China because I’ll never hear the end of it from my wife, who happens to be Chinese, if/when the horse runs big.  Lucky for me he actually turned up in my handicapping as a possibility.

  • #3 Nathan’s H Q (4/1)
  • #8 Safety Check (9/2)
  • #7 China (6/1)

Race 9: Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap (1 1/16 Miles – Turf)

I’m still kicking myself for not having used my boy Graham Motion’s big winner on Breeders’ Cup weekend last fall in #6 Shared Account.  Gone are the prospects for anything like the 46/1 odds her supporters reaped that day. Instead I’ll have to settle on 4/5 chalk.   There are a few other horses I think are worth covering in the late Pick 4 that begins on this race.  #7 Desert Sage makes some sense exiting back-to-back victories for trainer Chad Brown.  #2 No Explaining is a consistent Irish-bred filly who can make some noise in this race.  Lastly, you have to pay attention to the outside runner, #8 Dyna Waltz.  She may want more ground in an ideal setup, but I think you play against classy Dynaformers on the turf (especially with Dominguez aboard) at your own risk.

  • #6 Shared Account (4/5*)
  • #7 Desert Sage (5/1)
  • #2 No Explaining  (4/1)

Race 10: Grade 3 William Donald Schaefer Memorial (1 1/16 Miles)

There’s a bit of intrigue in the WD Schaefer this year as #3 Eighttofasttocatch is also entered in the Dixie Stakes – but this race would appear to make much more sense for the son of Not For Love as he’s won back-to-back starts over the Laurel main track.  He’ll need to bring his A-game wherever he winds up, as some classy horses await, including the 3rd place finisher from the 2008 Preakness, #5 Icabad Crane.  ”Icky”, as some of us refer to him, has always thrived at Pimlico and should have a good shot here if he can get a target to run at.  He’s been on the shelf since February, so he may need a race, which is why you have to spread things around a bit and also cover #2 Apart and the speedy #8 Colizeo on the multi-race exotics.

  • #5 Icabad Crane (4/1)
  • #3 Eighttofasttocatch (6/1)
  • #8 Colizeo (7/2)

Race 11:  Grade 2 Dixie Stakes (1 1/8 Miles – Turf)

The Dixie has long been my nemesis.  Ever since Shakis failed in the 2008 running of the marquee turf race of the weekend, I’ve been unable to cash a single ticket on this race.  I even covered the entire field last year save for one horse, and I’m sure I don’t need to tell you what wound up happening to me.  Thankfully, the racing Gods have given me a small field to work with this year, but I can almost see Admiral Akbar warning me from the start; “It’s a trap!”

What makes this race difficult to decipher is that the attention on the tote board will be focused on last year’s 3rd place finisher in the Kentucky Derby, #4 Paddy O’Prado.  The son of El Prado is obviously more at home on grass than on dirt, but he’s also making his first start since last November.  That’s a heckuva time to be on the shelf.  If he shows up even with his B-game he likely beats this field, but he’s also the most vulnerable single folks will be standing on in the Pick 3′s, 4′s, and 6′s all weekend.  So who has a chance to pull the upset?  I think you start with #5 Baryshnikov at 10/1 with Leparoux in the saddle.  This Empire Maker colt has won 5 of his last 6 starts and offers double digit value on the morning line.  How often do you see that?  The ubiquitous Graham Motion barn also has an interesting shooter in #6 Slews Answer – a Ghostzapper gelding who has progressed nicely in 3 lifetime races.

  • #4 Paddy O’ Prado (4/5*)
  • #5 Baryshnikov (10/1)
  • #6 Slews Answer (6/1)

Race 12: Grade 1 Preakness Stakes (1 3/16 Miles)

Is this the year we finally get to bust out of the Triple Crown nightmare we’ve been stuck in for 33 years?  Everything now depends on the wild man himself, KY Derby champion #11 Animal Kingdom.  Folks, I think we’re looking at a special race horse here.  I don’t think this year’s crop is particularly deep or challenging, and certainly he hasn’t scared off the competition – as we are constantly reminded of the full field here in Baltimore for the Preakness Stakes – but just look at that form cycle.  If not for some traffic in the debut and an awkward start at Gulfstream Park, we’d be looking at an undefeated Derby winner.  Ironically, he’s oft-mentioned as a turf horse, or at least that was the knock against him going into the Derby, but so far the grass remains the lone surface he’s not won over.  So much for the smart guys, eh?

The Animal will not arrive until Saturday morning, but if he steps off that van in anything like the form he showed in Kentucky, well, good luck to the rest of ‘em.  The other contenders are not without hope though – as the pace setup for this race should be completely different.  Gone will be the slow 48-and-change fractions set by #5 Shackleford, as new shooters #4 Flashpoint and #8 Dance City will ensure a faster pace this time around.

Ultimately I see this race as being very formful.  I expect #11 Animal Kingdom to be flying down the stretch, coming from a bit closer than he was in the Derby.  I think #9 Mucho Macho Man will actually get first jump on the pace setters and that both Animal and #10 Dialed In will be gunning for that one in the stretch.  Of the new faces in the crowd, I’d anticipate the best run coming from #1 Astrology, who has really made an impression on me this week.   My wife will be rooting for #5 Shackleford like she was in the Derby, but beyond her steadfast support I can’t see that horse improving off the Derby setup.   You might be able to twist my arm and get me to do something with #6 Sway Away as well.

  • #11 Animal Kingdom (2/1*)
  • #10 Dialed In (9/2)
  • #9 Mucho Macho Man (6/1)

Happy Preakness!


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Pimlico

March Thoroughbred Madness

4 03 2010

Living on the east coast, the impending weekend is probable cause for outright celebration.  For the first time since any of us can remember (seeming to harken back to mystic days of yore that only the oldest of old timers here can recall with any lucid vividity), the weekend forecast is not rife with winter storm warnings, blizzard predictions, or record snowfall accumulation already on the ground.  At long last, my friends, the great winds of Spring change have begun to blow!

Ah, yes – the Ides of March will soon be upon us in less than two weeks time.  That wild, unpredictable, whirlwind time of year where Caesars are felled and aspiring young horses get that extra tap of the whip to let them know “get going, buddy, it’s showtime.”

True to form, it appears that March may be entering like a lion for our friends near the California racetracks.  For them I can only offer the solace that comes with knowing that the arrival of Spring heralds the approaching bloom of everything from majestic Oaks to Apple Blossoms.  Yes, good people – there is reason to rejoice!

For those 3-year-olds still hoping to secure enough earnings to cement a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May, however,  it’s starting to become desperation time.  Little room for error is afforded the contestants.  One false move, one bad race – and the whole dream can be over before it ever really began.

Two primary opportunities are available to such hopefuls this weekend, with the Gotham at Aqueduct and the rescheduled Sham at Santa Anita (Grade 3′s both..with the rescheduled Sham perhaps in danger of being rescheduled yet again.  More on that in a moment).

That’s right – this weekend New York, at least, will get to stamp it’s place on the Derby trail.  One can almost hear Jay-Z and Alicia Keys being queued up in the background, in perhaps the most overplayed refrain of the year:

“Let’s hear it for New York!  These streets will make you feel brand new.  Big lights will inspire you…”

(Hey, that’s still better than R. Kelly’s insufferable “Gotham City”)

I wonder if that Jay-Z tune is playing on any of the horse’s iPods as they train in the morning and prepare for the big race ahead?

The Gotham (Grade 3) – Aqueduct – 1 1/16 miles (5:12 ET)

  1. Three Day Rush (4/1)
  2. Yawanna Twist (5/1)
  3. Nacho Friend (8/1)
  4. Awesome Act (7/2*)
  5. I’ve Got The Fever (12/1)
  6. Peppi Knows (10/1)
  7. Shrimp Dancer (12/1)
  8. Turf Melody (8/1)
  9. Afleet Again (20/1)
  10. Wow Wow Wow (6/1)

Tepid morning line favoritism has been bestowed upon trainer Jeremy Noseda’s entry AWESOME ACT, who will pick up the services of jockey Julien Leparoux.   The son of Awesome Again will be making his dirt debut, which might be reason to give some bettors pause before accepting low odds.  We know he can win on turf, and he certainly closed well in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf when bested by Pounced, Bridgetown, and Interactif.  What worries me is that there’s not a lot of workout information to suggest he will prefer the dirt, and the other angle I like to consider (versatility on multiple surfaces) for runners making such a move doesn’t appear very promising either, having finished 3rd in a field of 5 in his only synthetic start.  If he makes a good post parade impression I may be enticed, but for now I’m passing.

Everything trainer Todd Pletcher touches has turned to gold lately, so it seems a no brainer that THREE DAY RUSH has to be considered a player in this race at 4/1 second choice on the morning line.  That being said, he was third behind two of today’s rivals last out in the Whirlaway.  Two races back he was able to wire a field (like all other Pletcher runners, it seems) at the Allowance level at Gulstream Park.  I expect this horse to take serious play at the windows, and he should be a factor, but once again I’ll side against conventional wisdom as I’m a bit worried that the colt’s only wins have come sprinting at the 6 furlong distance.

Which brings me to PEPPI KNOWS, a solid 10/1 choice on the morning line.  I don’t expect to get odds that favorable come post time, but hopefully he’s still a decent price on the board.  The son of Stephen Got Even might be due to bounce back to earth, but note that his effort 2 back was a game 2nd to the once highly heralded Buddy’s Saint.   His running lines suggest he’s a horse that knows how to win, and that it will take a pretty good horse to beat him.  I’m going to make him my top choice here.

Another runner I think has a big chance here at very favorable odds is AFLEET AGAIN.  I almost had to do a double take when I saw the 20/1.  If you like PEPPI KNOWS at all at 10/1, don’t you have to like AFLEET AGAIN at double those odds?  The son of Afleet Alex has been working well for this effort, and if he and jockey Kendrick Carmouche can get some mojo working this weekend, they just might have a shot at the winner’s circle.

Then of course there’s my old pal Rick Dutrow and his entry, YAWANNA TWIST.  The son of Yonaguska has won back to back races to start his career sprinting at Aqueduct.  You know better than to discount a Dutrow horse running in New York…don’t you?

Selections:

  • #6 Peppi Knows (10/1)
  • # 9 Afleet Again (20/1)
  • # 1 Three Day Rush (4/1)

I’ll add in YAWANNA TWIST and AWESOME ACT to the exotic plays.  Ditto for TURF MELODY since he is a Graham Motion horse (I always play Graham’s horses – just a personal preference since he’s my favorite horsemen).

The Sham (Grade 3) – Santa Anita- 1 1/8 miles (5:12 ET)

  1. Marcello
  2. The Program
  3. Outlaw Man
  4. El Mirage King
  5. Boulder Creek
  6. Kettle River
  7. Setsuko
  8. Wolf Tail
  9. Nextdoorneighbor
  10. Alphie’s Bet

Note: Odds were not yet available as of this writing, but will be updated once they are set.

Remember all that talk of Spring being upon us at the top of this post?  Well, the beautiful weather that typically personifies Southern California this time of year might be only a figment of our imaginations this weekend, with heavy rains anticipated and a possible second rescheduling of Saturday’s Sham Stakes.  For now, we’ll proceed along the path of “ignorance being bliss” as those of us about to break the 50 degree threshold on the thermometer for the first time this decade gallivant around unaware (blissfully, again) of the fact our friends on the opposite coast may be being dumped on this weekend.

The Sham looks like a relatively evenly matched race on paper, but the two horses most will be anxious to see are KETTLE RIVER and THE PROGRAM.   That being said, I think there are some interesting “shots” worth taking a look at here, including SETSUKO and OUTLAW MAN.

We’ll start with the obvious.  KETTLE RIVER comes out of back to back victories over maidens and allowance foes.  The son of Congaree gives trainer Eoin Harty (of Colonel John fame) a runner that at least some folks I know are buzzing about as a possible Derby horse.  We’ll see if he’s got what it takes this weekend in his first graded stakes try.  Like so many of his generation, he’s lightly raced and still have plenty of room for improvement.  His recent workouts might not be off-the-charts, but if you go back to January 25th at Hollywood, he seems to have shown a little “something, something.”  I respect this guys chances in here enough to make him my top overall pick.

THE PROGRAM is more front running son of Harlan’s Holiday heading out for the always dangerous Bob Baffert barn.  If they let him get loose on the lead he could give them fits, but it’s worth noting he was no match for KETTLE RIVER following a wide trip two races back.  More forgiving handicappers will point to the 4th place finish behind Lookin at Lucky (beaten 1 1/2 lengths) last December.  He’s a player in this race for sure, but seems to me the type that needs to have a few breaks go his way (such as the head bob at the wire in his victory last out over Indian Firewater), and that might be playing with fire this time around.

If you’re looking for a price on the board, what about OUTLAW MAN?  Bettors tend to shy away from horses who take 4 tries to break their maiden and then jump up into the stakes level, but you know that with jockey Garett Gomez aboard, this son of Forest Wildcat will be taking at least some play at the windows.  I like that he’s improving, and that his recent workouts look very impressive (4 furlongs in :46 and change on 3/1, for example).  Also note who he faced in his debut; Winslow Homer.  Remember that guy?  Had he not been hurt, he might be a top contender for the Derby at this point in time.  Suffice to say there are reasons to expect a game performance from this colt.  I don’t think he’s outmatched at all against this field.

SETSUKO is a horse I admittedly knew nothing about until some folks at TVG (namely Matt Carothers) and at the DRF (Brad Free) started talking about him over a month ago.  He seems like a hard trying son of Pleasantly Perfect that, for whatever reason, just hasn’t been able to put it all together and turn in consistent winning races.  He is “right there” though in all of his tries (hence the “hard trying” reference).  I’m not sure why the horse is named Setsuko, as that is a name typically reserved for females in Japanese, but this colt does have two manly positives working in his favor; jockey Rafael Bejarano and trainer Richard Mandella. Consider him an underneath play on your exotics.

NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR could also be a sneaky play in here.  The son of Lido Palace picks up the services of Mike Smith in the irons, thanks at least in part to Bejarano being aboard SETSUKO.  He’s been training his tail off and trainer Mike Machowsky is hitting at a whopping 38% for the year with a limited sample of runners.  Don’t leave this guy off your tickets would be my advice.

Selections:

  • #6 Kettle River
  • #2 The Program
  • #3 Outlaw Man

I’ll also be adding in SETSUKO and NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR underneath to my exotic plays.

Well, that’ll just about do it for our weekend Derby prep races.  Best of luck to all – and be sure to let us know your thoughts on the weekend racing action.


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Categories : Aqueduct, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Santa Anita

Pioneer of the Nile guts it out to win the (G2) San Felipe

14 03 2009

 

Bob Baffert trained Pioneer of the Nile was all out in the stretch, but was able to maintain his drive and hold off the late charging Feisty Suances and Jeranimo to prevail in Saturday’s 72nd running of the $200,000 San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita.  The victory was the third in a row at the graded stakes level and boosted the lifetime earnings of Pioneer of the Nile to $784,200 in 7 lifetime starts.  Even more importantly, he’s now earned $240,000 so far this year having prevailed in the Robert B. Lewis (G2) last February. 

Results Chart

At the beginning of the race, jockey Joe Talamo sent speedy outside runner New Bay to the front, where he was able to set opening fractions of :23.96 and :48.60.   Pioneer of the Nile tracked about 4-5 lengths off of New Bay in the early going and began to move forward near the half-mile pole.   Once in the turn, jockey Garrett Gomez asked Pioneer for his run, and he made his bid with about 2 furlongs remaining.  He was able to pass New Bay entering the stretch, and then had to hold off the late charges of Feisty Suances and Jeranimo, who were running well late.

Pioneer of the Nile crossed the wire in the 1 1/16 mile San Felipe in  1:43. 35.  Sent off as the 1/5  favorite, he returned $2.60 for the win.  The $2 Trifecta with Feisty Suances in place and Jeranimo in show returned $72.20. 

The win was a sweet one for yours truly as I have both Pioneer of the Nile and jockey Garrett Gomez in the Road to the Roses challenge. 

Up next for the son of Empire Maker will be a showdown with The Pamplemousse  in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 4th.  Judging from what we’ve seen, he’ll likely have his hands full with The Grapefruit.   All of ‘Pioneer’s recent wins have been close though, so he is definitely a horse with some guts when it counts.   It is worth keeping in mind though that The Pamplemousse set early splits of :23 flat and :46 and change in his romp in the Sham on the last day in February. 

There’s still a chance that runners like Chocolate Candy and Stardom Bound could draw into the Santa Anita Derby, making it infinitely more interesting than the current 2-horse-race.  I expect Bob Baffert will have Pioneer of the Nile ready for a big effort in April.  It’s just that he’ll need his absolute best to get past The Pamplemousse.  However, you know what they say.  They all put their horseshoes on one hoof at a time.  A lesson we would be subjected to  in Arkansas before the day was through. 

 


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Handicapping Selections, Santa Anita, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pioneer of the Nile, horse racing

Nicanor can run!

7 03 2009

 

Nicanor, the widely cherished full brother to the legendary Barbaro, returned to racing on Saturday in a $40,000 Maiden Special Weight at Gulfstream Park,  turning in a much improved performance.   Sent off at odds of 8/1, he finished a game second to  3/5  favorite Custom for Carlos and returned $6.00 for place and $4.40 for show.

Trained by Michael Matz, the 3-year-old son of Dynaformer drew national attention from horse racing fans due to his kinship with Barbaro.  However, all the well wishing in the world from a hopeful and adoring public seemed for naught when he encountered trouble at several different moments during his debut on January 31st.  Sent off as the second choice that day, he faded badly to tenth, beaten by 25 lengths.

The world waited with baited breath to see what would transpire in his second effort, and you know what folks?  Give this horse a little time and he might be a pretty good one himself.  Ultimately he was passed by Custom for Carlos, a daunting favorite who had outrun Nicanor by 46 Beyer points in his debut.  Nicanor made him earn it today, and for a moment even appeared to be fighting back in the stretch.   That’s an encouraging sign from a Dynaformer colt.  You want them to be fighters in the stretch. 

He appears capable of  breaking  his maiden in his next effort, provided he receives some smart placement and little bit of racing luck.  We’ll see from there if he’s able to progress through the conditional allowance levels.  Dreams of stakes races may be far off in the future at this point in time, but if all goes well this colt should develop  and continue to move forward. 

There was an ever-so-slight indication that light had turned on for Nicanor by virtue of his March 3rd workout going 4 furlongs in 48 and change.  The drill was significantly faster than his last posted efforts at the distance.  He cut back in distance today from 1 mile to 7 furlongs, and judging from his candor in the stretch I’d say this guy would appreciate the extra furlong again if his connections can find the right race.


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Nicanor

I Want Revenge dominating in the Gotham

7 03 2009

 

Jeff Mullins took a big chance shipping I Want Revenge to New York just in time for the Gotham.  We noted him as the “x-factor” in the pre-race handicapping selections, and certainly expected a big performance, but I don’t think anybody was properly prepared for how dominating he would be.  On Saturday jockey Joe Talamo and the talented son of Stephen Got Even (A.P. Indy) absolutely destroyed what appeared to be a competitive field of 3-year-old rivals, including Haynesfield, Mr. Fantasy, and Imperial Council. 

Mr. Fantasy was away quickly and fought to keep a slight lead over I Want Revenge in the early going setting early fractions of  :23.76 and :48.45.   I Want Revenge refused to back down from Mr. Fantasy and gradually wore him down.  At the top of the stretch the two were eyeball to eyeball.  Suddenly I Want Revenge let loose and bolted to the wire, opening up to an 8 1/2 length victory in 1:42.65

See, apparently you can go East and win on the  synthetics-to-dirt angle.  As we continue to absorb the nuances of handicapping synthetic surfaces, one thing seems clear to me.  Horses that run competitively on synthetics seem quite capable of running big on the main dirt tracks.  We saw this last year with Colonel John, and now we’ve seen it again with I Want Revenge. 

The win figures to flatter the Derby prospects of two other California colts; The Pamplemousse and Pioneer of the Nile.  Handicappers will have to rethink where they rank these contenders in light of this successful California invasion.  It’s not a matter of if, but rather when a “synthetic runner” from California will win the Kentucky Derby.   That much is certain. 

I Want Revenge returned $8.30  to his backers for the win.  Imperial Council was up late for place but never really threatened.   Mr. Fantasy held on for show. 

Results Chart

Up next for I Want Revenge would appear to be the Wood Memorial (Grade 1) on April 4 .  The colt now has 2 wins from 7 lifetime starts and has been in-the-money in all of his efforts.


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Categories : Aqueduct, Fantasy Horse Racing, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita

Stardom Bound looks to steal the show on Big Cap Day at Santa Anita.

7 03 2009

Go ahead.  Beat her if you can. California’s top three-year-old filly takes her next step today in the 70th running of the Santa Anita Oaks (Grade 1).   Eight other fillies have lined up to challenge the daughter of Tapit who continues to flirt with Kentucky Derby dreams.  On a day that feature arguably the most competitive race of the year in the $1,000,000 Santa Anita Handicap, the return of Stardom Bound in the Santa Anita Oaks figures to be the most compelling story of the day.   The field sets up like this:

  1. Stardom Bound (M. Smith/R. Frankel) 2/5*
  2. Burg Berg (T. Baze/P. Gonzalez) 10/1
  3. Miss Silver Brook (A. Solis/J. Canani) 12/1
  4. Hooh Why (R. Albarado/ C. Gaines) 15/1
  5. Stormy Slew (J. Velazquez/D. O’Neill) 30/1
  6. Nan (C. Nakatani/ C. Dollase) 15/1
  7. Will O Way (R. Baze/ V. Cerin) 8/1
  8. Beltene (J. Rosario/ J. Carava) 15/1
  9. Third Dawn (J. Sadler/R. Bejarano) 30/1

A victory here could propel Stardom Bound to the Santa Anita Derby and beyond.  A defeat and her connections may have to regroup.  While on paper she may look entirely like a 2/5 favorite, we’ve all seen her visually and know she has at least a fraction of the same special qualities we see in Zenyatta.  She’s the class of her field, and nobody is going to touch her today. 

A horse that I think can really get up into the money at some long odds is Beltene.  All this horse has done is rattle off 3 lifetime victories in as many starts.   She’s beaten 22 horses thus far.  I’m not saying she’ll beat Stardom Bound, but beyond the obvious favorite there aren’t any that look like monsters in here.  At 15/1 I’ll bite that this one can wind up in the money.  The distance will be the obvious question. 

Hooh Why is another horse at longer odds that I think could make some noise here.  The angle that leaps out at you is the fine finish behind the highly regarded Patena in the Display at Woodbine on 12/6/08.  She doesn’t seem to run bad races either.  Love seeing a filly who has battled with colts (and good ones at that) and run a big race.  My money says she’ll be a player here for a minor award.

Burg Berg is an obvious contender for the exacta as she will likely control the early pace.  Stardom Bound will be looking to run her down to stretch to score.  I’m not sure if she wants to go the distance today.  If she can hang on she’s a logical choice for place.  If she fades she’ll likely be off the board.  Ultimately I think you’ve got to use her.

Miss Silver Brook is another who could take some play.  Trainer Julio Canani is already having a brilliant 2009 campaign thanks to the top dog in his stable, The Pamplemousse.  This filly seems to have been training lights out recently and could be picking off horses late. 

Lastly you have to consider the other horses with graded stakes experience; Nan and Will O Way. Of those two I prefer Will O Way at the 1 1/16 mile distance. 

I’ll play Stardom Bound on top and look to catch some value underneath with Miss Silver Brook, Burg Berg, and Beltene in place.  I’ll add in Hooh Why and Will O Way for show.  We’ll round it out with Nan and Third Dawn on the bottom.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #1 Stardom Bound
  • $.10 Superfecta: 1/2,3,8/2,3,4,7,8/2,3,4,6,7,8,9 ($6.00)

Looking over the rest of the Santa Anita card.  The Big Cap looks like a tremendous betting race, especially with the defection of lukewarm favorite Colonel John.  I like Einstein to run a big figure over the Pro Ride. You could make a case for virtually the entire field though.  Just an excellent race from top to bottom.  In the Fank Kilroe I like the filly, Ventura.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita, Square Eddie, Stardom Bound

G3 Southwest Selections

15 02 2009

Moving right along with the Road to the Roses, up next we’ve got a showdown between two highly touted rivals at Oaklawn park in the Southwest (G3).  Larry Jones trainee Old Fashioned is the morning line favorite having blown away the last two fields he’s faced by a combined total of 22 3/4 lengths.  He has yet to be truly tested, which figures to change on Monday when he runs into another son of Unbridled’s Song in the impressive Dixieland winner Silver City.

  • Click here for free Brisnet PP’s
  • Also note the new “Road to the Roses” page here on The Aspiring Horseplayer, where we’ll be keeping track of the results and replays for each Derby prep

The field for the Grade 3 $250,000 Southwest (OP, Race 9, 1 Mile) sets up like this:

  • #1 Retap (L. Quinonez/S. Asmussen) 10/1
  • #2 Lock Dubh (J. Court/ J. Talley) 20/1
  • #3 Silver City (M. Mena/W. B. Calhoun) 7/2
  • #4 Gersham (C. Borel/J. Baker) 10/1
  • #5 Old Fashioned (R. Dominguez/L. Jones) 8/5*
  • #6 Buzzin and Dreamin (I. Ocampo/D. Wayne Lukas) 20/1
  • #7 Flat Out (J. A. Garcia/C. Dickey) 6/1
  • #8 Professor Z (C. Emigh/S. Asmussen) 12/1
  • #9 Poltergeist (Q. Hamilton/D. Von Hemel) 8/1
  • #10 Silver Bayer (T. Thompson/D. Vance) 20/1
  • #11 Kick On (K. Tohill/ J. Petalino) 12/1

We’ll tackle the obvious here right off the bat.  The race most likely boils down to what kind of trip Old Fashioned gets.  If jockey Ramon Dominguez can get him to rate a bit and then make his run, I think it will serve the colt well for potential future engagements down the trail.  If , however, he makes an attempt to wire the field, I think he becomes a bit more vulnerable.  So far we haven’t seen Old Fashioned challenged for a lead, but that could be what happens if  Professor Z and Silver Bayer make an effort for the front.   All of that considered, he’s also coming off a 79 day vacation and could be expected to have a minor amount of rust.  The colt’s been working sharply in the mornings though, firing bullets, and looking the part of a nearly unanimous fantasy stable selection.

 

Old Fashioned wins the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct by over 7 lengths (11/29/08)

 

Silver City presents an interesting choice for handicappers.  The knock will be that he’s a  sprinter stretching out for the first time, but like Old Fashioned there are signs that this one could thrive at longer distances as well.  His impressive speed ratings have risen as he’s added ground, going 6 1/2 furlongs for a career long thus far.  He’ll need to get another furlong and a half to be in the mix on Monday.   The upside is that he’s already shown proficiency on the main track here at Oaklawn having won the $50,000 Dixieland on January 16.  He’s another who has been working impressively in the mornings building up to Monday’s showdown.   If there’s a runner in this race that looks capable of taking down the undefeated Old Fashioned, it’s Silver City.

Another runner who may be overlooked is Flat Out for trainer Charles Dickey.  Flat Out powered home to win the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn on January 19.  That race returned  many of today’s rivals as well (Gersham, Professor Z, Silver Bayer).  Like the Southwest, the Smarty Jones just happened to be run at the 1 mile distance.  He’s also extremely lightly raced, having only 3 prior races coming into the Southwest.  Of particular interest is the fact that he was able to improve off of his Beyer figure in his 2nd race while moving forward from maiden special weight to listed stakes company.  That tells me this horse has the talent to compete in a spot like this.

Many players will also be focusing on Poltergeist, who romped home in an Allowance mile last time out at Oaklawn Park. I can’t find any reason to fault backing this colt if you’re looking for an upset, apart from the fact that he has yet to prove he can achieve as high a speed figure when stepping up in class.  To me, that’s what separates him from a runner like Flat Out from a handicapping perspective.

I’ll look for Old Fashioned to show his class and stay in front of Silver City in the stretch. I do think Silver City will make Old Fashioned earn every step of it though.   Flat Out will be coming late and will present the final challenge to Old Fashioned, who should get to the wire with a neck in front.  I’m calling it a win for Larry Jones, but much closer than the experts think (there’s my gratuitous Lee Corso moment). 

Oaklawn features some attractive vertical wagering possibilities, including a 50 cent trifecta and 10 cent superfecta.  When looking for runners to fill out the ticket that might offer some value, consider that Poltergeist looks useful, but I think he ranks a tad lower than Flat Out and Silver City due to his outside post position.  Ditto for Silver Bayer, who ran a big race for 2nd place behind Flat Out in the Smarty Jones.   I also like the look of some of the inside runners to threaten to hit the board for the bottom of the trifectas and superfectas including Retap, Loch Dubh, and Gresham.  Each should offer fairly large value if they manage to get through.  I also can’t totally count out Professor Z or Silver Beyer.  I mean let’s be honest, just about anybody can run 4th, right?

I’ll play Old Fashioned on top with Silver City and Flat Out in place.  Toss in Retap, Loch Dubh, Gresham, and Poltergeist for show.  Add in the rest apart from Kick On for the bottom of the superfecta.

Selections:

  • $.50 Trifecta 5/3,7/1,2,3,4,7,9 ($5.00)
  • $.10 Superfecta 5/3,7/1,2,3,4,7,9/1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9,10 ($7.00)

If you’re playing for the win, value will be there to warrant taking a stab with either Flat Out or Silver City.  They may be worth a spur of the moment play if they look the part in the post parade.  Ultimately, roughly 24 hours in advance here, I’m going to say Old Fashioned is the horse to beat, so come and beat him if you can. 


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Categories : Fantasy Horse Racing, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Old Fashioned

Cinema Handicap all about the pace

21 06 2008

Five horses will compete in the Grade 3 Cinema Handicap at Hollywood Park on Saturday. The field will travel 1 1/8 miles over the turf course at Hollywood in what looks to be a race that is all about the pace.  The field for the Cinema Handicap is as follows:

  1. Polonius (J.K. Court) 9/5*
  2. Ez Dreamer (C.Nakatani) 4/1
  3. Tiz West (V. Espinoza) 3/1
  4. Robscaravic (J. Rosario) 5/1
  5. Liberian Freighter (R. Bejarano) 5/2

Here’s the deal. If Polonius can get to an easy lead in this one than the race is probably over right then and there. Thankfully, things may not quite be so simple.  The presence of Liberian Freighter to the outside may ensure either a pace duel between he and Polonius or at the least some pace pressure.  I expect it will be the latter rather than the former. 

Polonius exits a very impressive score in the G3 Will Rogers where he defeated two of today’s main rivals in Ez Dreamer and Tiz West, as well as the longshot of the field in Robscarvic.  He also showed to be very strong in the stretch as he did not weaken significantly as front runners so often do.  It’s a simple game for Polonius – break well from the gate and try to wire the field. 

Liberian Freighter has several really good Allowance level races in his past to go along with a very impressive Beyer speed progression.  He’s also shown that while he prefers the lead, he doesn’t need it to prevail.  He’s never faced one quite as good as Polonius on the grass, but a stalking trip parked just outside his hind quarters would appear to give Liberian Freighter a real fighting chance here.

Tiz West is another who is progressing well after taking a bit of time to break his maiden.  He’s another that could find himself sitting a comfy trip behind the early pace, but once again if that early pace is a comfortable Polonius rather than a battle between Polonius and Liberian Freighter, it would be hard to anticipate a win.  If the pace does set up well, he could get first jump turning for home. 

Ez Dreamer and Robsarvic would appear to be the longshots to me.  I like Ez Dreamer best of those two and think he has a real chance to wind up in the money.  He wasn’t able to cut into Polonius’s lead last time out and has been bested by Tiz West in the past.

I’ll play Polonius for the win in a captain obvious play.  I’d use Tiz West and Liberian Freighter underneath.  If trifecta wagering is allowed, toss in Ez Dreamer for third.  There won’t be much value here anyway with such a short field.  This will be a race to watch rather than bet in my opinion. If you’re formulating a pick 4 ticket – I think there’s enough reason to expect a strong trip from Polonius that you can consider singling here.

1/ 3, 5 / 2, 3, 5 ($4)


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Hollywood Park

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