Imperial Council wants revenge

3 04 2009

Four weeks ago, I Want Revenge served notice on the 2009 Kentucky Derby trail by turning in an impressive 113 Beyer figure on his way to an 8 1/2 length victory over Imperial Council, Mr. Fantasy, and others in the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct.  This Saturday, Imperial Council will make his bid for revenge as the two square off in the 85th running of the Grade 1 Wood Memorial.  The Wood is part of  an all-stakes Pick 4 sequence that begins with the Bayshore (G3), moves on to the Excelsior (G3) and finishes with the Carter Handicap (G1). 

The field sets up like this:

  • #2 I Want Revenge (J. Talamo/J. Mullins) 4/5*
  • #3 Lord Justice (C.C. Lopez/ T. Pletcher) 15/1
  • #4Cellar Dweller (A. Napravnik/ J. Campo) 30/1
  • #1 Atomic Rain (J. Bravo/K. Breen) 6/1
  • #1A West Side Bernie (S. Elliot/ K. Breen) 6/1
  • #5 Imperial Council (E. Prado/C. McGaughey) 2/1
  • #6 Just a Coincidence (J. Velazquez/ N. Zito) 12/1
  • #7 Lime Rickey (J. Castellano/ F. Alexander) 20/1

Past Performances available here from the Road to the Roses challenge

Looking back at I Want Revenge in his dominating performance in the Gotham, the son of Stephen Got Even had everything go his way.  He was able to comfortably stalk a soft pace and when he made his move to surge past Mr. Fantasy, the race was over.  Imperical Council came running hard from the back of the pack to close to 2nd, but never was able to threaten I Want Revenge. 

 

If he gets the same trip in the Wood, the outcome will likely be exactly the same.  From a pace setup, you could argue that the Wood figures to be run a bit quicker than the Gotham was.   If Lord Justice runs here (he’s also entered in the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne on Saturday), than he’s your likely pace setter.  However, Atomic Rain may show some speed as well, as might Nick Zito’s Just a Coincidence.  Might that open things up for Imperial Council coming off the pace? 

Imperial Council likely left himself way too much to do in the Gotham, and closing into I Want Revenge’s dream trip was seemingly an impossibility.  Today he’ll get an extra half furlong of ground, plus a bit wider turns as they move from the inner track to the main track.  Couple that with perhaps a better pace scenario and I think an upset here starts to become a possibility.  I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again;  despite the attention that Pioneer of the Nile receives on the California circuit, it would not surprise me if Imperial Council turned out to be the best of the Empire Maker offspring in this crop of three-year-olds – and Saturday just might be his day.  It’s also worth noting that he’s got Edgar Prado back in the saddle, so a return to his previous style of being noticeably closer to the pace should be expected.  Even trainer Shug McGaughey is quoted as saying as much in Saturday’s DRF. 

West Side Bernie and Atomic Rain make an intriguing pair of runners, but ultimately their coupling actually deflates the betting attraction of this race.   With only seven possible numbers to punch in your ticket, don’t expect bank breaking value here.  I’d cover the top 2 runners if you’re wading into the $400,000 guaranteed Pick 4 pool and move on. 

I think the world of I Want Revenge and have been a fan of jockey Joe Talamo’s since well before he earned fame on the series “Jockeys” - but I’ll probably play against him this weekend and look for Imperial Council at slightly better odds.  I suspect the public will hammer I Want Revenge thanks to his impressive speed figures, so even that 4/5 value on the morning line might not hold.  Admittedly I’d like a bit better risk/reward value than 2/1 on Imperial Council, but I’d be happy to get 3/1 or so by post time.  I think both of these horses are Kentucky Derby worthy, and with I Want Revenge most likely having his card already punched, we’ll see if Imperial Council can join him at the big party on the First Saturday in May.

It’s not that I don’t think I Want Revenge will win – he probably will, it’s just that there’s no value in taking him, and I can come up with a few scenarios in my mind where he could be vulnerable (could is the operative term there, note that I did not say “would”).   In the end I’ll be betting on the fact that while he may be clearly better than Imperial Council, I doubt that he’s really 8 lengths better.   This one ought to be closer, and Imperial Council should at least have a chance if all goes well. 

Alas, there is no 10 cent Superfecta wagering available on the Wood, so I’ll skip the single race exotic wagering and save my bankroll for later plays.  Besides – we’re going Pick 4 or bust at Aqueduct.  It’s time to welcome in April in triumphant style!

In the other races of the Pick 4 sequence  I like Capt. Candyman Can and Not for Silver in the Bayshore (G3).  I’ll spread a little deeper in the Excelsior (G3) and cover Barrier Reef, Alaazo, and Cool Coal Man.  In the Carter Handicap (G1) I’ll cover four numbers with True Quality, Fabulous Strike, Tale of Ekati, and Kodiak Kowboy.  

Selections:

  • $20 Win #5 Imperial Council
  • Race 7  All stakes Pick 4:  4,6/1,2,6/2,5/1,3,4,7  ($48)

 


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, I Want Revenge, Aqueduct

Nad Al Sheba’s star studded day

27 03 2009

They’ve come from every continent in the world, and this Saturday at Nad Al Sheba many of the top thoroughbreds in the world will compete in a series of 6 graded stakes races, culminating  with the $6 million Dubai World Cup.  At this moment last year, I was nervously waiting out the final night before Curlin’s date with international destiny.  Now here we stand one full year later, and once again we cast our attention to the East and the lure of riches, fame, and glory.  While there is no Curlin in the World Cup this year, the lineup for the day in Dubai is beyond impressive.  It might as well be a mini Breeders’ Cup festival.  This, my friends, is the type of day that horse racing fans and handicappers the world over long for. 

Race 2:  The $1,000,000 Godolphin Mile (Grade 2) – 1 Mile

  • #6 Kalahari Gold 8/1
  • #4 Two Step Salsa 3/1*
  • #13 Gayego 7/2

We kick things off in the 2nd race of the day in the $1 million Godolphin Mile.  One of my early favorites from last year, Gayego, looms as a huge threat, but has drawn an outside post.  He’s also going to be stretching out to a mile again after romping in the Mahab Al Shimaal (G3) last out.   Two Step Salsa looks like his main competition on paper having picked up the services of jockey L. Dettori.  Another horse I thin has a big shot in here is Kalahari Gold for Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashin Al Maktoum.  Dijeer, on the the extreme outside, and Art of War also deserve consideration.  I’m going to make Kalahari Gold my top choice at 8/1 in a bit of an upset, but Id cover Gayego and Two Step Salsa as well if you’re wading into the pick 6 waters.

Race 3: The $2,000,000 UAE Derby (Grade 2) – 1  1/8 Miles

  • #5 Desert Party 1/1*
  • #11 Soy Libriano 10/1
  • #1 Regal Ransom 4/1

The UAE Derby provides the “prep fix” for us Kentucky Derby junkies, being the lone race on the card exclusive to three-year-olds (as well as possible grade 2 points in the Road to the Roses challenge).  Desert Party is the obvious choice here having toyed with competition last time out.  A win puts him firmly on the Derby trail, while a loss will likely cause his connections to think twice before shipping half way around the globe.  I don’t think there’s anyone in here who can beat him, but if an upset were to occur a likely candidate might be Soy Libriano from the outside.  He’s the lone entry in the field with a win at the 1 1/8 mile distance of the UAE Derby.  That’s got to count for something, right?   Regal Ransom play underneath in the exacta and trifecta wagering, along with Redding Colliery as they have both finished behind Desert Party in their last two races. 

Race 4: The $2,000,000 Dubai Golden Shaheen (Grade 2) – 6 Furlongs

  • #12 Indian Blessing 3/1*
  • #2 Big City Man 5/1
  • #7 Merchand d’Or  9/2

The Golden Shaheen is a tricky race to handicap for many U.S. players as it’s a 6 furlong sprint on a straight track.  That means we’ve no tricky turns to negotiate.   For that reason I expect the class of Indian Blessing to shine through.  I firmly beleive that 6 furlongs might be her best distance.  Ever since she lost the Acorn to Zaftig last year, I’ve been convinced that she was born to sprint, and so far she’s lived up to that billing.  This one should be quick, as there seems to be quite a bit of speed signed on.  Big City Man owns 4 victories at the 6 furlong distance and has run well at Nad Al Sheba giving him a bit of a “horse for the course” angle to consider.  He seems to always show up and run a big race and I see no reason to expect a change this weekend.  Marchand d’Or intrigues me a bit despite having not run well the last time he tried the turf to dirt angle.  He seemingly woke up the second half of last year and may have been entering this race on a 4 for 4 run had he not encountered a bit of trouble in the Hong Kong Sprint at Sha Tin last out.  Diabolocal, Force Freeze, and Lucky Quality all look useful underneath in the exotics.

Race 5: The $5,000,000 Dubai Duty Free (Grade 1) – 1  1/8 Miles (Turf)

  • #10 Archipenko 4/1*
  • #3 Vodka 10/1
  • #8 Balius 8/1

This might be the deepest field we’ll see all year.  One could make a case for virtually every runner in this field, and numerous longshots rate big chances to hit the board.  Needless to say, if you’re playing the Pick 6 this looks like the race to spread the deepest.  Ultimately I’m taking a stand against the morning line favorite, Kip Deville, as I’m not sure this is his best distance.  Yes, I know he’s exiting a victory going the same distance last out at Gulfstream against the likes of Court Vision, but I prefer him going a mile.  Archipenko is a horse I still cannot believe lost the Arlington Million last year.  He’s a better hrose than that, and proved as much by winning the Zabeel Mile over Vertigineux and Kalahari Gold (keep that in mind if my longshot wins the Godolphin Mile). Vodka is not the only female in the race, but she sure looks the best of them.  She had a horrible trip against Balius and Jay Peg in the Jebel Hatta (G2) last out and could turn the tables on them with a bit more racing luck.  Balius looks like a tough competitor in here with a big shot at long odds.  Like I said, deep field, so either go with your instincts here or spread deep.  Hell, if you can afford to, press the “All” button and hope for a bomber.  It could well happen here.  It’s actually tougher to come up with reasons why most of these runners can’t win than it is to come up with reasons why they can.  

Race 6:  The $5,000,000 Dubai Sheema Classic (Grade 1)  – 1  1/2 Miles (Turf)

  • #6 Youmzain 4/1
  • #1 Front House 6/1
  • #7 Purple Moon 6/1

We stay on the turf for the Dubai Sheema Classic, only we stretch out to a mile and a half this time.  Youmzain has amassed over $1 million more than any of the other competitors at the longer 1 1/2 mile distance.  This will mark his third attempt to reach the winner’s circle at Nad Al Sheba.  He’s been off for quite some time, but note that he did run second to Zarkava in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Grade 1) last October at Longchamp.   Zarkava woud likely crush this field, so a repeat performance puts him right in the hunt.  He’s also battled heads with the likes of Dylan Thomas and Duke of Marmalade, so he’s a proven commodity to say the least.  I’m not fond of his odds at 4/1, but he’s the top choice.  Front House and Russian Sage form a formiddable battery for South African based trainer Mike de Kock.  Front House is the more proven of the two at this distane.  It’s hard to believe you can get a horse like Red Rocks, who defeated Curlin in the Man O’ War last year at Belmont, at odds of 10/1, but he hasn’t looked nearly as good since that race. 

Race 7: The $6,000,000 Dubai World Cup (Grade 1) – 1  1/4 Miles

  • #4 Asiatic Boy 5/2
  • #10 Albertus Maximus 2/1*
  • #8 Casino Drive 6/1

I can’t help but get the feeling that Jess Jackson ought to drag Curlin out of retirement, even now just hours before the race, and send him to Dubai to show this field what a real champion looks like. Oh wait, hang on a second.  Curlin basically did that already having defeated many of these same faces last year in his record setting 7 3/4 length win.   No world beaters like that look entered here today, which oddly enough means we have ourselves a stronger betting race.  I’m seeing this one as a three horse race between the above mentioned contenders.  I give Asiatic Boy the slight nod, but to be honest I could easily see Casino Drive pulling the upset.  I’m a bit worried about the fact that Asiatic Boy doesn’t string consecuritve victories together, meaning he might be due for a defeat.  One other thing to keep in mind: At one point last year, Asiatic Boy was a perfect 5 for 5 at Nad Al Sheba.  Since then he’s gone 1 for 4.  Albertus Maximus is my U.S. play, hoping to keep a victory streak going here for the “red, white, and blue corner!”  My Indy and Well Armed deserve some consideration if they look good going to post.


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Categories : Casino Drive, Gayego, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Indian Blessing

Derby time, Florida style

26 03 2009

Another weekend, another step forward down the ole Derby trail.  On Saturday nine horses will compete for lucrative graded stakes earnings and a potential starting spot in the 2009 Kentucky Derby in the 58th running of the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.  In recent years the Florida Derby has become arguably the key prep race in the road to the roses, having produced future Derby winners in Big Brown (2008) , Barbaro (2006), and Monarchos (2001).   On paper this has the feeling of a two horse race, but there are a few runners who could make things interesting for the favorites.  The field sets up like this:

Past Performances available here

  1. Toby the Coal Man (J. Leparoux/ N. Zito) 10/1
  2. Quality Road (J. Velazquez/ J. Jerkens) 2/1
  3. Casey’s On Call (E. Baird/ A. Fehr) 15/1
  4. Dunkirk (G. Gomez/ T. Pletcher) 9/5*
  5. Sincero (E. Trujillo/ M. Azpurus) 20/1
  6. Theregoesjojo (K. McPeek/ K. Desormeaux) 5/1
  7. Danger to Society (M. Madrid/ R. Dutrow) 6/1
  8. Europe (C. Decarlo/ T. Pletcher) 20/1
  9. Stately Character (R. Douglas/ G. Procino) 20/1

There’s simply no getting around it.  The question everyone will be wanting to see answered is whether Dunkirk is worthy of the hype we’ve bestowed upon him in recent weeks.   To prove that he’ll have to find a way to get past a very talented Quality Road for trainer James Jerkens.  Quality Road has the obvious raw speed figure advantage, but Dunkirk is proven at the longer distance of the Florida Derby ( 1 1/8 miles), having defeated conditional allowance winners (including #5 Sincero) last out in what could only be described as a disastrous early trip.  It’s worth taking a look again at that race replay to try and form a final opinion of the son of Unbridled’s Song who sold for $3.7 million in September of 2007.

Dunkirk overcomes an extremely wide trip to crush Allowance runners at Gulfstream Park on 2/19/09

 

I’m not sure what else can be said to describe that effort short of “amazing.”   Had he not been carried so far wide, no doubt his final time and speed figures would have been boosted further.  It’s not hard to figure out why so many fans, including myself, have jumped aboard this guy’s bandwagon.   I mentioned in the last post though that he’s still got a ways to go.   This appears to be a deep crop of three-year-olds he’s in competition with (from an overall standpoint, if not necessarily in this particular field), so he”ll have to continue to improve.   As an unraced 2-year-old with such a light foundation so far coming into the Florida Derby, he’s still a bit of an unknown wild card.   In the end you’ve got to love how he finished that last race.  You get the feeling he wants more and will be ready for the step up in class.

Quality Road should not be taken lightly though.  Dismissed by yours truly in the Fountain of Youth (although I did  mention he would have a bright future in front of him), he romped over what was considered at the time to be an extremely deep group of horses, including Capt. Candyman Can, Beethoven, This One’s for Phil, Notonthesamepage, and Theregoesjojo (who he faces again today).  The son of Elusive Quality has shown he can put up big speed figures at the shorter distances and will now have to prove that he can run just as well going an extra furlong.   Judging from the way he drew off from the Fountain of Youth field,  it doesn’t look like the distance will be a huge concern.  Much like Dunkirk, it’s wise to take at least one last look at Quality Road’s performance in the Fountain of Youth.

Quality Road romps in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on 2/28/09

 

Watching that  performance, it appears Quality Road got an almost perfect trip stalking This One’s for Phil.  I say “almost”  because there was some trouble at the start.  His running line for the race denotes “jostled start.”  In fact, it was the second such performance in a row where he’s run well after encountering some trouble at the start.   Theregoesjojo appeared to be running well for place, and it’s important to note that Quality Road showed his class by keeping a healthy lead on him through the home stretch.  This definitely looks like a serious horse.  One could easily this race boiling down to a similar denouement, where Quality Road has to hold off the charge of Dunkirk late in the stretch.

As for the rest of the field, Theregoesjojo is an improving runner for trainer Ken McPeek that will likely take some heavy play in the exacta pools.  Like Quality Road, he’ll have to prove he can run to those big speed figures stretching out an extra furlong.  In yet another similarity with Quality Road, he also encountered some trouble at the break in the Fountain of Youth by “stepping slow.”  The way he was moving late I think this one gets the added distance with no problems. 

Danger to Society is the x-factor (beyond Dunkirk) who could make his presence felt.  You can never count Rick Dutrow out of a horse race (as much as it pains me to say it), and he could get lucky with this son of Harlan’s Holiday who appeared to be progressing nicely before hitting a bump in the road in the Holy Bull in late January.  They’ve had him on the shelf for a long time since transferring  to Dutrow after the Holy Bull, and his workout tab for March suggests the light may have turned back on.  He could still be any kind of horse, and I’ll be expecting an improved performance in his first effort for his new barn.

If you’re looking for some longshots to round out your exotic wagers, consider the inside runner, Toby the Coal Man for trainer Nick Zito.  Yes, it took him 6 attempts to finally break his maiden last out, but his last two efforts have been tremendous improvements.  He had to fight to bust out of the maiden ranks last out as he was set down for an all out drive in the stretch to reach the promised land of the winner’s circle.  This is an ambitious placement on paper, but he has attracted jockey Julien Leparoux.  I’m guessing the worm has turned with this one.  Look for another step forward and a real shot of hitting the board.

Sincero is another who keeps coming up in my handicapping as a play underneath.  I doubt he can finish higher than 3rd, but he has gone up against some classy colts compared to some of the other long shots on the board.  Note that he has matched up against Big Drama, Free Country, Take the Points, and Dunkirk.  He’s another runner with a penchant for trouble in his running lines.  If he ever puts it all together he’s eligible to move forward. 

Ultimately, if you’re playing the superfecta, I think you’ve got to cover the field for the bottom of the ticket.  Even the longest shot on the board, Europe, looks a little worrisome to leave off completely.  True, he showed absolutely nothing in his debut, but he’s as well bred as his stablemate Dunkirk and his morning workouts suggest he’s more talented than we saw in that effort.  It’s probably asking a bit much for him to step up to the Grade 1 level, but it’s conceivable he could pick up a small share of the earnings. 

I’ll go with Dunkirk for the win, but you won’t hear and argument from me for those who choose to stand against him and take a possibly more prudent “wait and see” approach.  I’m banking on the fact that the distance will be more to his liking than it will be for Quality Road.  That beings said,  I expect Quality Road will make him earn it if he’s to pass him in the stretch.  I’ll use Quality Road, Danger to Society, and Theregoesjojo for place.   Add in Toby the Coal Man and Sincero for show, and then cover the field for the bottom and hope for a bomber.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #4 Dunkirk
  • $.10 Superfecta:  4/2,6,7/1,2,5,6,7/ ALL  ($8.40)

 


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Categories : Dunkirk, Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Quality Road

Tampa Bay Derby a test for Hello Broadway

13 03 2009

Hello Broadway, a 3-year-old Broken Vow colt trained by Barclay Tagg, has been installed as the 3/1 morning line favorite in Saturday’s 29th running of the Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 3).  Eleven runners will take aim at the $300,000 purse in the 1 1/16 mile race, including General Quarters, winner of the Sam F. Davis (Grade 3) on February 14.   The field sets up like this:

Past performances available here

  1. Perfect Bull (D. Butler/ B. Rhone) 30/1
  2. Musket Man (D. Centeno/ D. Ryan) 8/1
  3. Nowhere to Hide (A. Garcia/ N. Zito) 5/1
  4. Hello Broadway (E. Coa/ B. Tagg) 3/1*
  5. Warrior’s Reward (C. Montalvo/ I. Wilkes) 12/1
  6. Sumo (J. Rose/ G. Motion) 6/1
  7. Join in the Dance (E. Trujillo/ T. Pletcher) 12/1
  8. General Quarters (T. McCarthy/ J. Lopez) 4/1
  9. Bear’s Rocket (R. Allen Jr./ R. Baker) 8/1
  10. Justontcallmejeri (J. Rios/ D. O’Neill) 12/1
  11. Top Seed (R. Maragh/ M. Trombetta) 20/1

The two horses that will rightly garner the most attention are obviously Hello Broadway and General Quarters, but this field looks evenly matched enough that an upset is not out of the question. 

Hello Broadway will be stretching out after running 2nd to Capt. Candyman Can in the Hutcheson (Grade 2) on January 30.   He’s been training well, having fired bullets on 3/10, 2/26, and 2/21.   He also fired a bullet 1/27 just before his effort in the Hutcheson, but that was at 4 furlongs and the more recent bullets were at 5 furlongs.  You get the feeling Tagg has been getting this guy to carry his speed a bit further.  That being said, I don’t think he wants him on the lead like he was in the Hutcheson.  A stalk and pounce trip would seem to be the recipe for success on Saturday.

General Quarters is a heckuva story.  A $20,000 maiden claimer who has risen to Grade 3 winner in the Sam F. Davis, he’s the horse for the course in this field.  He also seemingly relished the added distance of the Sam F. Davis and another effort close to that performance likely puts him in the winner’s circle.  The question is, while he’s obviously improved, is he a bounce candidate?  One could easily see this race setting up as a battle between the top two contenders in the stretch, and it might come down to who gets first jump and who has better position. 

Warrior’s Reward looks like a horse worth considering underneath at very generous odds.  The son of Medaglia d’ Oro has run well in his last two efforts, including a decent performance against the impressive Dunkirk last out at the allowance level over at Gulfstream.  Trainer Ian Wilkes might have himself a live one here.

Musket Man has run well against and even defeated General Quarters in recent memory, and did so over this surface.  He’s been training consistently well all year, so there’s no reason to anticipate a significantly decreased performance. 

Other horses who look worthy of consideration include Bear’s Rocket (possible pace factor), Sumo (who busted out a 96 Beyer breaking from the 10 hole in the Sam F. Davis), and Nowhere to Hide (Nick Zito’s sneaky recent maiden grad who has been getting better with each start). 

I’ll play Hello Broadway for the win.  I like Warriors Reward, Musket Man, and General Quarters underneath, with Sumo and Nowhere to Hide  and Bear’s Rocket rounding out the trifecta.  Sadly, there doesn’t appear to be a 10 cent Superfecta available, more’s the pity.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #4 Hello Broadway
  • $1 Trifecta:  4/2,5,8/2,3,5,6,8,9

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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Tampa Bay Downs

Square Eddie highlights a solid Saturday at Santa Anita

16 01 2009

Saturday racing action at Santa Anita features the cover boy for today’s Daily Racing Form, the three-year-old son of Smart Strike named Square Eddie.  Additionally, we’ve got three graded stakes in the late Pick 4 sequence including the Grade 2 Santa Ynez (race 6), the Grade 3 San Rafael (race 7), and the Grade 2 San Fernando (race 8).  We’ll take a look at each as the betting action figures to be fast and furious. 

If you’ve been playing Santa Anita, or casually paying attention from a distance, you know how hard it’s been to pick anything consistently.  Numerous carryovers in the Pick 6 pool illustrate the difficulty horseplayers have faced.  I’ll be honest, I haven’t done so well lately.  It starts to wear on you after a while, as you panic thinking there is a fundamental flaw you have yet to discover in your handicapping, or that some dark storm cloud has set upon you assuring that you will never pick a winner again.  Obviously the latter is nonsense.  Another way to look at things is with some good old fashioned optimism. After all, if you’ve been getting your teeth kicked in for a sustained period of time, you can bank on one surefire thing;  you are DUE with a capital D!

Race 6: The Grade 2 Santa Ynez (7 Furlongs)

  • #1 Candilejas (M. Garcia/J. Mullins) 15/1
  • #2 Nan (C. Nakatani/C. Dollase) 15/1
  • #4 Spanish Ice (D.R. Flores/C. Dollase) 6/1
  • #5 Empressive Lady (M.C. Baze/J. Mullins) 4/1
  • #6 Turtle Creek Babe (V. Espinoza/R. McAnally) 20/1
  • #7 Deeveetee (P. Husbands/M. Casse) 8/1
  • #8 Evita Argentina (G. Gomez/J. Sadler) 5/2
  • #9 Alpha Kitten (T. Baze/J. Sadler) 9/5*

To me the story of the Santa Ynez is the complete lack of pace on paper.  Things weren’t help when Pinkarella was scratched from the race on Thursday.  The lack of pace will likely hinder one of the morning line favorites, Evita Argentina, or she will have to alter her running style and be a bit closer to whatever pace there is.  So far she’s done all of her running from well off the pace. 

Alpha Kitten and Empressive Lady look to be the ones to beat today.  They’ve each got a hint of versatility and should be either apart of whatever develops or will be close enough to it to make their presence known.  I’ll tell you that Alpha Kitten comes up with more angles to consider, at least from how I handicapped the race, but my gut tells me Alpha Kitten will enjoy the cut back to 7 furlongs from the 1 1/16 miles she attempted last time in the Hollywood Starlet.

A dark horse worth taking a long look at in the post parade is Deeveetee, who when all is said and done is probably the best candidate for becoming the early pace setter.  Note that 3 races back she dueled for the lead against state bred rivals before fading.  Obviously anyone loose on the lead here could be a serious threat to steal the race.  I still prefer Alpha Kitten and Empressive Lady, but I wouldn’t rule Deeveetee out of the mix at all.

Lastly, for your head-scratching angle of the day, note that fringe contender Turtle Creek Babe once defeated the mighty Stardom Bound last July.  Since then things haven’t been pretty, but it’s worth noting that many of the top competitors in this race have been soundly defeated by Stardom Bound.  I’m just sayin’ .

Selections: 9/5/7/8

 

Race 7: The Grade 3 San Rafael (1 Mile)

  • #1 The Pamplemousse (A. Solis/J. Canini) 4/1
  • #2 Fiddlers Afleet (M.C. Baze/J. O’Hara) 6/1
  • #3 Brother Keith (G. Gomez/R. Frankel) 5/1
  • #4 Ryehill Dreamer (M.E. Smith/J. Shirreffs) 12/1
  • #5 Papa Clem (T. Baze/G.Stute) 8/1
  • #6 Square Eddie (R. Bejarano/D. O’Niell) 8/5*
  • #7 Charlie’s Moment (J. Rosario/W.Solis) 10/1
  • #8 Feisty Suances (D. R. Flores/D. Vienna) 8/1

The San Rafael is probably the race most people are focusing on, and rightfully so.  It’s our first chance to take a look at Square Eddie in 2009, the colt some have referred to as “baby Curlin.”  We should probably temper the expectations that such associations create by remembering that ‘Eddie has yet to break the 90′s from a Beyer standpoint, and is returning from over 2 full months on the shelf.  While his workouts haven’t exactly been scintillating, it is worth remembering that his 2nd place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to Midshipman over the same course was good enough to defeat this field.  A repeat of that performance likely makes this race academic. 

That being said, there are some very game competitors here that figure to make him earn it and are capable of stealing the race if the favorite shows up a bit rusty.  Let’s start with The Pamplemousse.  The $150,000 purchase for the Julio Canini barn has run 3 very strong races at the maiden special weight level.  He finally popped his cherry last out racking up an 89 Beyer; equal to the figure earned by Square Eddie in the  BC Juvenile.  Beyond that, he really seemed to enjoy the added distance last out going 1 1/16 miles, so today’s mile journey shouldn’t be a concern at all.   This could be any kind of horse and he’s got a legit shot to become one of (if not the) top male 3-year-olds on the circuit.  He’s a real player here.

Moving to the 4 hole, we’ve got the always dangers John Shirreffs (of Zenyatta, Tiago, and Giacomo fame) teaming up once again with his ace, jockey Michael E. Smith, on what appears to be a very interesting Euro-shipper in Ryehill Dreamer.  I’ll be honest, I”m not very good at figuring out how the Euros will run first time out, but memories of invaders like Goldikova and Raven’s Pass are still fresh in my mind, so I think you’ve got to consider him a player as well.  Now take a look deeper into his form.  He’s been facing some decent company, and has run well in all but one race where the comments indicate he was bumped 2 furlongs from home.  Look out – this guy may be live and at a very large price (as evidenced by the 12/1 morning line value).  Want another angle?  Check out that last morning move in his workout line; 4 furlongs over the Hollywood cushion in :47.  I’d say he’s ready to run.

Lastly, you’ve got the Johar offspring Brother Keith for trainer Bobby Frankel.  He’s obviously stepping up in class big time to jump from maiden to Grade 3, but he seemingly won for fun last out and has also been working well.  If you happen to pick up a copy of the Saturday DRF, make sure you check out Brad Free’s article that makes some interesting points about Johar offspring.  Obviously I’m against plagarism, so I won’t steal any of  his thunder here.  There’s also one other jaw dropping surprise (at least for me) in the same article concerning a horse named Jimmy Two Times, but that’s a story for another time.  Like I said, with the edition still fresh on the newsstand, it would be wrong to say anything more.  Suffice to say it’s an entertaining read and there’s enough in the article to take any Johar offspring seriously.

I still like Square Eddie here, and as I’m a pretty big fan of the Shirreffs/Smith combination I’ll make Ryehill Dreamer my second choice followed by The Pamplemousse.  Know this though, I would NOT feel comfortable taking a stand and making Square Eddie a single – partly because he has yet to demonstrate he is head and shoulders above this field and partly because chalk has been routinely trounced at Santa Anita thus far this year.  Some of you may be braver than I…I just feel it’s my duty to caution you while I can. 

Selections: 6/4/1/3

 

Race 8: The Grade 2 San Fernando (1 1/16 Miles)

  • #1 Muny (D. R. Flores/M. Puype) 8/1
  • #2 Wishful Tomcat (J. Rosario/R. Frankel) 8/1
  • #3 Cherokee Artist (J. Valdivia/G. Motion) 20/1
  • #5 Booted (V. Espinoza/R. Mandella) 8/1
  • #6 Nownownow (J. Talamo/P. Biancone) 12/1
  • #7 Madeo (M.E. Smith/J. Shirreffs) 3/1*
  • #8 El Gato Malo (C. Nakatani/C. Dollase) 6/1
  • #9 Silver Sword (M.C. Baze/D.O’Neill) 30/1
  • #10 Slew’s Tiznow (R. Bejarano/D.O’Neill) 7/2
  • #11 Tres Borrachos (T.Baze/B. Greely) 12/1
  • #12 Dakota Phone (G. Gomez/J. Hollendorfer) 8/1

By far the most challenging race to handicap in the stakes sequence at Santa Anita is the 57th running of the Grade 2 San Fernando.  Several big name competitors line up, including one time 2008 Kentucky Derby hopeful El Gato Malo, and stakes winners Muny, Slew’s Tiznow, and Tres Borrachos (who finished 9th in the 2008 Preakness).

When I first picked up the advance copy of the DRF, I was overjoyed to see Muny listed as 6/1.  I knew it wouldn’t be that good, but it’s more than disappointing to see him instead listed as the morning line favorite at 3/1.  Granted, if you like the horse, 3/1 really isn’t a bad price to eat chalk on.  It’s actually about as good as you can do when favoritism is concerned.  Still, the less than confident odds denote just how difficult this race came up.

Muny and Wishful Tomcat both look like horses that should show speed from the inside, although Muny does possess a hint of tactical ability as evidenced by his style in his initial two maiden efforts.  He just about took a strong field including Cowboy Cal and Court Vision to task in the Hollywood Derby before fading to 5th late.  That was at 1 1/4 miles, and today he cuts back to 1 1/16.   Even better, he’s been able to hold off Madeo in the past, and outside of Wishful Tomcat should not be too hardly pressed today.  Based on the odds, I’ll probably make him (Muny) my top play.

Don’t get me wrong, I love Madeo and El Gato Malo here, so if you’re playing the exotics, I’d probably spread fairly deep on this one.  Note that Madeo hasn’t been coming from as far off the pace in his synthetic tries as he has on turf, so it would be wrong to discount him as a dead late closer here.  I’d amost guarantee that he makes his presence felt here.

El Gato Malo was once my favorite 3-year-old on the California circuit last year, but he ran into some distance limitations trying to go 1 1/8 miles.  Anywhere from a mile to a mile and a sixteenth is probably his distance limit.  My guess though, is that he’ll probably leave himself more to do than Madeo will, which makes Madeo the stronger play.

Of course, you can never count a Tiznow colt out of a street fight, and to ignore the impressive 102 Beyer figure of Slew’s Tiznow would be a total mistake.  I have some concerns about how he classes up against some of these runners, but he should get a nice ride from jockey Rafael Bejarano and if you toss his effort on Breeders’ Cup weekend in the “Pro Ride” (dirt) Mile, then he clearly fits with these.

Two x-factors in the race may be Booted and  Tres Borrachos.  With “three drunks” (Tres Borrachos), you never quite know who will show up.  Early last summer he sort of peeked, and since then has not hit the board.  He’s been off since October though, and while he likely needs a race, he appears to have been working very well in the mornings.  I would not be shocked if he hit the board at 12/1. 

Booted once almost gave me a heart attack, so I’ll never forget him.  It was July 4, 2007, and I was alive in the late Pick 4 at Hollywood singled to Salute the Sarge in the 7th race.  For much of the early going, it looked like Booted was going to be a major player, then he suddenly backed out of the race.  According to the “closer look” comments in the DRF, the horse was injured that day (as well as on another occasion).  He’s a tough one to figure out definitively, but it’s hard to argue with the recent form coming off back to back wins.

Selections: 1/7/8/10

As always, best of luck to all and make sure to check for late changes and scratches.  It’s brutally cold here on the East Coast, so I’ll likely be inside with the newborn all weekend.  I plan on having some Sunday picks up as well, but for what it’s worth I’m going for the I-95 Super Bowl in the AFC/NFC championship game.  Ravens vs Eagles.  It’ll be just like ’83 when the Orioles and Phillies banged heads.  And you know what?  The outcome would be the same – a Baltimore victory.  No doubt the Steelers will have something to say about that when all is said and done, and I must say that as a devoted St. Louis Rams fan, I know as well as anyone that you NEVER count Kurt Warner out of a fight.  I just can’t publicly pick the Cardinals to go to the Super Bowl.  Years of Cardinals awfulness could be clouding my judgement though.

If you’re looking for anything else to bide the time away this bitter cold weekend, be sure to check out the photo contest we have going over at the new TBA homepage.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita, Square Eddie

Saturday Selections

9 01 2009

Nothing stops the procession of progress around here at The Aspiring Horseplayer, not even the arrival of a new son.  That’s right, in case you somehow missed it, my second little guy was born last Saturday at the hospital in Gettysburg.  He’s got good turf pedigree and should round out into one of the better juveniles in a couple of years.  Actually, I’m hoping he’s not affiliated with anything “juvenile” as that conjures up images of detention centers and correctional facilities.  Let’s hope that’s a path this boy can avoid.

Beyond that excitement, there’s obviously NFL playoff fever in the air.  I’ll just come right out and say that on Divisional Weekend I like the Panthers, Eagles, Ravens, and Chargers.  Now that football is out of the way, let’s dive into our sport of choice; thoroughbred horse racing, and see if we can’t pick some winners for the Lecomte, the San Pasqual, and a very interesting Allowance race at Gulfstream Park featuring two of the more highly regarded 3-year-olds in the land.

The Grade 3 Lecomte – Fair Grounds (Race 9) – 1 Mile (Dirt)

  • #1 Friesan FIre (5/1)
  • #2 Au Moon (8/1)
  • #3 Citizen (20/1)
  • #4 Patena (4/1)
  • #5 Big Push (8/1)
  • #6 Dynamic Force (10/1)
  • #7 Professor Z (6/1)
  • #8 Uno Mass (5/1)
  • #9 Indygo Mountain (3/1*)

Looking over the field of the Lecomte, we’ve got some speed signed on here with Patena breaking from the 4 hole, Big Push from post 5, and the Steve Asmussen runner Professor Z from post 7.  That should set things up nicely for one of the stalkers, namely either Indygo Mountain or Uno Mass.

Of those two, I prefer the other Asmussen entry, Uno Mass, by the slimmest of margins.  The son of Macho Uno has not only borken his maiden, but also defeated the next level allowance foes, something that Indygo Mountain has not achieved yet.  All things considered I think these two colts are very close in terms of talent, so it all comes down to whether or not you like 3/1 on the extreme outside, or 5/1 just to his inside.  I’ll probably play the odds here. 

There are a couple of others in here to keep your eye on if shooting for the $.10 superfecta (fast becoming one of my favorite bets in the game; to the point that I’m almost disgusted when it’s not offered on a betting program…every race should have a $.10 super!!!).  Au Moon won for fun last out against Special Weight competition and could be any kind of horse.  He accomplished that from the 10 hole last out and should appreciate being moved inside today.  Friesan Fire is also very intriguing with that combination of jockey Gabriel Saez and trainer Larry Jones (not to mention the horse, who appears to be in sharp form). 

I’ll play Uno Mass on top with Indygo Mountain (note: I keep wanting to type “hello, my name is Indygo Mountain, you killed my father, prepare to die!!!” whenever I write his name), Professor Z, and Friesan Fire in place.  I’ll add in Au Moon and Patena for show, and finally I’ll add Big Push for 4th:

8/1,7,9/1,2,4,7,9/1,2,4,5,7,9 = $4.80

 

Gulfstream Park  Alw 42000N$Y (7 Furlongs – Dirt)

  • #1 Summerton (12/1)
  • #2 Belo Sorte (20/1)
  • #3 Two Brash (12/1)
  • #4 Quality Road (5/2*)
  • #5 Obligingly (3/1)
  • #6 Theregoesjojo (6/1)
  • #7 B B’s Song (20/1)
  • #8 Meshuga (30/1)
  • #9 Monk’s Creek (8/1)
  • #10 Tar Beach (12/1)
  • #11 Awesome Rythm (12/1)
  • #12 Jet Set Vinny (8/1)

This very well could be the race of the day.  By far it’s the race I’m most excited about as Saturday draws near.  Two of the most highly touted 3-year-olds in the land, Quality Road and Obligingly, will knock heads in this deceptively strong conditional allowance race and we may get our first look at who is a Derby contender and who is a pretender when all is said and done.  Both colts have surpassed the 100 Beyer figure threshold as 2-year-olds.  Quality Road is the one thought to have the brighter future, but today may be Obligingly’s day to shine.

Quality Road posted a 101 figure breaking from the 10 hole in his debut at Aqueduct last November.  Since then he’s been throwing bullets at Palm Meadows and would appear to be primed and loaded for trainer James Jerkens.  Obligingly is an Officer colt that jumped from a 49 Beyer in his debut to an impressive 100 at Churchill in an 11 length win on December 7. 

Take your pick from these two, but I can’t see anyone else beating them.  I’ll probably play odds again here, if I even play (the $.10 Superfecta is calling me to).  This is one of those races I just want to see both colts come back well from after moving forward in the afternoon.  Hopefully we get that.  All things being equal, at the tricky 7 furlong distance, I’ll take Obligingly.  It won’t bother me at all if Quality Road is as good as advertised and he beats me.  We’ll keep the play cheap.

5/4,9,12/1,4,9,12/1,3,4,9,11,12 = $3.60

 

The Grade 2 San Pasqual Handicap – Santa Anita (Race 8) – 1 1/16 Miles (Pro Ride)

  • #1 Mostacolli Mort
  • #2 Marchfield
  • #3 Informed
  • #4 Cowboy Cal
  • #5 Noble Court
  • #6 Past the Point
  • #7 Well Armed
  • #8 Magnum
  • #9 Blue Exit
  • #10 Ball Four
  • #11 Racketeer
  • #12 Slew’s Tizzy

We end up the day in the feature at Santa Anita, the 72nd running of the Grade 2 San Pasqual Handicap.   Hopefully any of you playing the Santa Anita card are still alive in the enormous Pick 6 carryover pool available on Saturday.  I don’t quite have the cash flow to take an honest stab into that at the moment.  The carryover itself illustrates one small problem for handicappers; when to have the courage to stand on favorites.  They haven’t been winning as often as usual as the Pro Ride has adapted to it’s first full winter of use. 

Still, I think it’s going to take a top notch effort from someone to take down the favorite, Well Armed, here.   We’ve seen Well Armed bang heads with Curlin and Go Between in the past.  To me he’s clearly the best horse on paper once you draw a line through the effort last out in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (aka “Synthetic Mile”).

That being said, there are some attractive options if you feel like taking a stab.  For starters, one of my favorite horses to play in such angles is Cowboy Cal.  Some of you may remember I picked him in the Hollywood Derby and he finished less than a length behind Court Vision (I still feel like he could’ve won that one).  I really like his recent form, and if he were to put it all together today, he’d certainly have a chance. 

Another to keep an eye on is the often disrespected Past the Point.  I say “often disrespected” because he isn’t known for being a “winner” and was at one point, along with the late Wanderin Boy, one of the horses those who were not fans of Curlin would use to point out the weakness of races like the Woodward.  What Past the Point has shown me since then is that he isn’t a fluke.  He belongs in this kind of race.  I’m not sure he can ever beat the likes of Well Armed, but he can certainly hit the board consistently.  I’d expect him to give a pretty good account of himself when all is said an done.

Another horse to consider here is Slew’s Tizzy breaking from the extreme outside.  For those that don’t know, I have a confirmed fetish for playing the offspring of Tiznow.  It’s just something I’ve noticed over the years.  They do pretty well for me when I play them, and when I don’t play them (cough, Da’ Tara, cough), they absolutely burn me alive.  He’s another that if you draw a line through is effort on Breeders’ Cup weekend makes a lot of sense here, although that outside post could be an issue.  At least, if nothing else, it should assure a clean break.

I’ll play the chalk on top, with Past the  Point, Cowboy Cal, and Slew’s Tizzy in place.  I’ll add in Ball Four for show, and then toss in Mostacolli Mort and the other Tiznow colt (Informed) and Noble Court for the bottom of the superfecta:

7/4,6,12/4,6,10,12/1,3,4,5,6,10,12 = $4.50

As always, best of luck to all and be sure to check for late changes/scratches – not to mention weather this time of year.


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Categories : Fair Grounds, Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita

Playing the Saturday Monmouth card

13 09 2008

Big Brown, Big Brown, Big Brown.  That’s probably all folks are expecting to hear when discussing how to play Saturday’s Monmouth card.  The super-colt is entered in what appears to me to be a tailor-made turf prep race for his ultimate goal of the Breeder’s Cup Classic later this fall.  His own stable, IEAH, is sponsoring the race for goodness sakes.  Is it humanly (equinely) possible he could lose?  I think so.  As a self-described chalk-eater, this may surprise some, but I think you’ve got to take a stand against him if he comes up an overwhelming favorite.

First, a couple of thoughts.  Big Brown looked great debuting on the turf as a 2-year-old before being shelved with the first of what would become reoccuring hoof problems.  Today, however, he’ll be facing older horses for the first time, dealing with a surface switch,  and also dealing with potential weather problems.  Showers are in the forecast for Saturday and have to be included in the handicapping recipe.  As I write this from beautiful south-central Pennsylvania, the sun has broken through a light cloud cover and has begun suggesting perhaps the day won’t be as wet as originally thought.  The official forecast is calling for “a few showers early with cloud cover lingering.”  In other words, it won’t be anything quite like Hurricane Ike’s invasion of the gulf coast (which has to be considered the biggest and most powerful amphibious invasion launched by an “Ike” since the Normandy Beach landings of June 6, 1944).  The turf could be rated “good” by the time all is said and done though.

Look, Big Brown is obviously the star of the day – and it’s not like I’m going to advise playing against him on multi-race wagers.  Don’t get knocked out by a horse that has won EVERY race he’s finished.  That would be foolish.  But, if you’re looking to catch a score in a trifecta or exacta play – perhaps at least consider  using one of the challengers? 

Speaking of the challengers, the top two you can choose from are Shakis (#3, 4/1) and Proudinsky (#6, 9/2).  I tend to prefer Proudinsky here for several reasons.  Most notably, I’m just not a Shakis guy and haven’t forgiven him yet for his defeat in the Dixie back on May 17.  Plus, he’s 8-years-old and despite coming off a very solid victory in the Bernard Baruch last out, I wonder how successfully he can string together multiple victories these days?  Playing into Shakis hands (hooves) is that the race does appear to have a decent amount of speed and he is a closing type that prefers having that in front of him.

Proudinsky may be a bit overlooked at the windows today.  His last two races don’t appear to be the kind you support with a win wager going up against company like Big Brown and Shakis.  What I like about him is that he was steadied early on last out in the Bernard Baruch, and still fought on to earn a 101 Beyer figure (Shakis earned a 105 in the victory, for comparisons sake).  I also like his European breeding if the turf comes up anything short of firm. His last two efforts on less-than-firm turf have resulted in victory.  If for some reason Big Brown were to go down in defeat today, I think this is your guy.

Looking over the rest of the field for horses to fill out a trifecta wager with, I like Kiss the Kid (#5, 8/1), Silver Tree (#11, 5/1), and Drum Major (#7, 6/1) enough to consider using them based on post parade impressions.  As for now, I like them in the order just mentioned.   My trifecta play will look like this:

6/3,4/3,4,5,7,11 ($8)

Of course, it goes without saying that my main play of the day will be a Pick 4.  Here’s where I think folks can do the logical thing and single Big Brown.  I didn’t, but it makes sense to do so.  I felt honor bound to include Proudinsky just in case he pulls it off, but by tossing him I could theoretically cut the cost of this monster in half.   I really like Cuba in the NJ Breeder’s Handicap.   I hedged that bet a bit with Meadow Blue to go along with Cuba.  I reached for some depth in the bookend races of the wager, not wanting to be knocked out right off the bat, and wanting to have a decent shot if I survive the first three legs. 

Pick 4 (total cost = $48):

  • Race 7: 3,4,7
  • Race 8: 1,5
  • Race 9: 4,6
  • Race 10:  6,9,10,11

As always, be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches.  Best of luck to everyone.


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Categories : Big Brown, Handicapping Selections

Saturday Stakes at Saratoga

26 07 2008

The Saturday card at legendary Saratoga is headlined by 4 graded stakes races in a row in races seven through ten.  Each race will be televised on ABC from 4:00 PM - 6:00 PM EDT and will comprise an all-stakes pick 4 sequence.  The races are also part of the Breeder’s Cup “Win and You’re In” Challenge Series. 

Specifically we’ve got the Grade 1 Diana (race 7), the Grade 2 Alfred Vanderbilt (race 8), the Grade 1 Go For Wand (race 9), and the Grade 1 Whitney Handicap (race 10).  It goes without saying that we’ve got some good horses to watch today, although the weather could still play a factor – primarily with the Diana since it’s on turf. 

Race 7 – The Grade 1 Diana:

  • #1 Bit of Whimsy (Eibar Coa) – 12/1
  • #2 Dynaforce (Kent Desormeaux) – 4/1
  • #3 Bayou’s Lassie (Robby Albarado) -12/1
  • #4 Wait a While (Rafael Bejarano) – 3/1
  • #5 Vacare (Edgar Prado) - 9/2
  • #6 Criminologist (John Velaszquez) – 8/1
  • #7 Rutherienne (Garrett Gomez) – 6/1
  • #8 Forever Together (Julien Leparoux) – 15/1
  • #9 Chestoria (Cornelio Velasquez) – 20/1
  • #10 Lady Digby (Ramon Dominguez) – 10/1

The 70th running of the Diana for fillies and mares 3-years-old and upward going 1 1/8 miles over the Saratoga turf is perhaps the most difficult of the 4 stakes races on the card to get a handle on.  This of course is because it’s being run on the grass at the spa – which has seen some significant rainfall in recent days and has had numerous races moved off the grass in an effort to preserve the course for the major events of the weekend.  You really have to handicap this race assuming two different possibilities.  Either the track has dried out enough to be considered firm or the horses will be going to post with a bit softer footing.  That may seem trivial – but it could totally change the complexion of the race.  For starters, some of the heavier hitters in here like Wait a While may in fact scratch if the turf comes up anything other than “firm.”

Assuming we don’t have a rash of scratches, Wait a While looks to be the horse to beat.  Bejarano has flown in from California to be here for this race, and why not?  All this daughter of Malibu Moon (A.P. Indy) has done is win 10 of 20 lifetime starts for a whopping $1.8 million in earnings.  Still, be careful about accepting luke warm favorites at Saratoga.  They don’t call this place the graveyard of favorites for nothing, and if that turf is soft it may indeed favor some other runners.

From a race setup, I expect Bayou’s Lassie to be on the lead here regardless of how the track is rated.  There’s a number of horses who could be just behind her, including Dynaforce and Wait a While. I also believe that Lady Digby is going to have to move a bit quicker than desired out of the gate due to the extreme outside post position.  Bit of Whimsy could be in that group as well breaking from the rail.  Vacare and Criminologist won’t be too far behind, and Rutherienne and Forever Together will likely play the role of closer today. 

I expect Bayou’s Lassie to be pressured enough by the stalkers that she fades before the wire, but do note that she handled Vacare on a wet track 3 races back (not to mention Dreaming of Anna as well).  In other words, I wouldn’t totally disrespect her here.  She could well hit the bottom of the trifectas.  If the track is playing dry, I expect the order of finish to be:  Wait a While, Vacare, Bayou’s Lassie.  If instead it comes up a bit wet (as is expected), I think you really have to boost the odds of Criminologist and Dynaforce.  Criminologist is the clear “horse for the course” play as she owns 2 victories over the Saratoga turf.  It’s pretty hard to ignore that at 8/1.  Forever Together could be interesting in here at a  price.  She’s not exactly proven herself against this level of competition, but she did class-up well against Ventura and Lady of Venice last time out and appears to have really taken to the lawn.  Lady Digby could’ve used a better post position, but perhaps if nothing else she’s assured herself of a clean break. 

Selections:

  • Firm: 4/3,5/3,5,7,8 ($6)
  • Wet: 6/2.3/ 2,3,4,5 ($6)

 

Race 8 – The Grade 2 Alfred Vanderbilt:

  • #1 Thor’s Echo (Corey Nakatani) - 6/1
  • #2 First Defence (Javier Castellano) - 4/1
  • #3 Black Seventeen (Aaron Gryder) – 9/2
  • #4 Sammarta (Channing Hill) – 15/1
  • #5 Abraaj (Alan Garcia) – 3/1
  • #6 Bustin Stones (Edgar Prado) – 2/1*
  • #7 E Z Warrior (Kent Desormeaux) – 15/1

The 24th running of the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap for three-year-olds and upward sprinting 6 furlongs on the main track drew a small field of 7, but we’ve got a couple of horses here to make it competitive. Really this looks like a two horse race to me on paper.  In the one corner you’ve got the undefeated Bustin Stones exiting his first Grade 1 victory and stepping into the toughest field he’s faced.  So far he’s been a need the lead type runner that has wired every field he’s faced.  You get the feeling that horses like Black Seventeen, Sammarco, and others won’t let him get away with that so easily today.  Of course, he may well make the whole thing academic and run ‘em all out of there shoes.   Still, I think you can look towards the other likely contender, Abraaj to get the better trip here today sitting just off the pace. 

Abraaj may not have a Grade 1 victory in his belt, but that horse that beat him last time out (Benny the Bull) is the best sprinter in the country – and Abraaj lost by less than half a length to him.  I’ll give him the nod here.  Thor’s Echo and First Defence have every reason to wind up in the money today as well. Of those two I slightly prefer First Defence who has cracked 2 of three exactas so far this year. With such a short field you’d be perfectly sane to add a few more underneath than what I’m giving out. You know me though- always trying to cut corners and pinch pennies where I can.

Selections:

  • 5/2,6/1,2,6 ($4)

 

Race 9 - The Grade 1 Go For Wand Handicap:

  • #1 Ginger Punch (Rafael Bejarano) – 1/2*
  • #2 Inside Passage (Eibar Coa) – 15/1
  • #3 Indescribable (Kent Desormeaux) – 13/1
  • #4 Moon Catcher (Edgar Prado) – 5/1
  • #5 Copper State (Shaun Bridgmohan) – 10/1
  • #6 Runway Rosie (R. Maragh) – 8/1
  • #7 Over Under (Robby Albarado) – 20/1
  • #1A Spring Waltz (Javier Castellano) – 1/2*

The 55thrunning of the Go For Wand  for fillies and mares 3-years-old and upward going 1 1/8 miles over the main track is the closest thing to a “free square” folks playing the all-stakes pick 4 or the pick 6 will get on this card.  You just dont’ see anything close to super mare Ginger Punch in here. I think she could toy withthis field and win going away.  The funny thing is, the second best horse on paper is part of a coupled entry with her (#1A Spring Waltz). 

What this means is that we’ll probably have these two bet down to something like 1/5 by post time, effectively killing the prospects at high payouts in the pick 4 (more’s the pitty). So, if you think you’ve spotted a chink in her armor and can beat her – by all means try to do so as you should be well rewarded if right.  I tend to prefer  the bitter taste of chalk in this one allthe way.  I’m not going to make this one more difficult than it needs to be. Indescribable, Runway Rosie, and Moon Catcher could threaten for minor awards along with Spring Waltz. 

Selections:

  • 1/3,5,6/3,5,6 ($6)

 

Race 10 – The Grade 1 Whitney Handicap

  • #1 Commentator (Javier Velazquez) – 3/1
  • #2 Solar Flare (Gabriel Saez) – 4/1
  • #3 Notional (Edgar Prado) – 5/1
  • #4 Cowtown Cat (Rafael Bejarano) – 20/1
  • #5 Merchant Marine (R.Maragh) – 15/1
  • #6 Tasteyville (M. Luzzi) – 12/1
  • #7 Rising Moon (Cornelio Velasquez) – 10/1
  • #8 Grasshopper (Robby Albarado) – 10/1
  • #9 A.P. Arrow (Ramon Dominguez) – 10/1
  • #10 Student Council (Shaun Bridgmohan) – 6/1
  • #11 Timber Reserve (Javier Castellano) – 20/1

We wind up the all-stakes pick 4 sequence with the 81st running of the  Whitney  Handicap for three-year-olds and upward going 1 1/8 miles over the main track.  Rising Moon is the horse I’m interested in seeing in the post parade.  A lung infection may have caused this one the Suburban Handicap last out and if back to top form as trainer Richard Dutrow says (I know, I know – it’s Dutrow), than this one can easily turn the tables on rival Solar Flare in my opinion.  Stop and think about it.  If not for the lung infection you’d be looking at a horse with 5 consecutive wins in the books – and we’re getting him at 10/1?  Where do I sign up? 

Commentator looks like a solid candidate in here as well.  The thing with him is that he’s 7 years-old now and may not be running at his best distance.  He’s going to have to gun it from the rail, and there is other speed in here that should be making him earn it (namely #6 Tasteyville). That should set things up nicely for Rising Moon if he’s healthy, and Solar Flare if not.  There’s a slew of directions to go underneath.  Horses like Grasshopper, A.P. Arrow, and Student Council are all usable.  I prefer Grasshopper and A. P. arrow of that group due to their previous success here at Saratoga. Drilling down even further, of those two I’ll go with Grasshopper as one of my top choices underneath - even though he’s burned me numerous times since that battle with Street Sense in the Travers last August.

Selections:

  • 7/2,8/1,2,8,9 ($6)

 

So, as far as formulating a pick 4 ticket for this all-stakes sequence, let’s see if we can’t get lucky with the following:

All-Stakes Pick 4 ($24)

  • Race 7: 2,4,5,6
  • Race 8: 5,6
  • Race 9: 1
  • Race 10: 1,2,7

Obviously if you have some deeper pockets you can add some additional horses in.  I thought the first leg was the most wide-open and opted for the deepest coverage there.  Best of luck to everyone and enjoy the racing action from Saratoga.


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