Win Willy defeats Old Fashioned in a Rebel shocker

14 03 2009

 

Every so often the game of thoroughbred horse racing reminds you that there is a reason they run the races and don’t simply award purse money based on who looks the most formidable on paper.  This Saturday at Oaklawn Park, the near consensus top selection at the moment for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, Old Fashioned, was upset by 50-1 longshot Win Willy in the (G2) Rebel. 

Results Chart

So what happened?   Well, in my opinion he simply got too close to a hot early pace.  After starting the race out in front, Ramon Dominguez allowed John Court and Silver City to set the early pace, and that they did ripping off splits of :22.54 and :46.07. 

Midway through the turn, Old Fashioned took the lead after an opening 3/4 of a mile in 1:11.67.  Entering the stretch it looked like it might be smooth sailing for the Larry Jones trained colt,  as he had opened up a 2 length advantage over Silver City. 

However, what you can  see by looking closely towards the rear of the pack in the replay above (pay special attention at the 1:19 – 1:22 mark) is that Win Willy was absolutely blowing past rivals on his last-to-first move.  At the top of the stretch Win Willy was hung a bit wide but continued to explode down the center of the track.

Suddenly it became clear that Old Fashioned was in hot water.  In a race that reminded me very much of the thrilling finish to the 2007 Preakness, Old Fashioned tried desperately to hold on begging for the wire, but ultimately came up short as Win Willy surged past him for the upset of the day.  A valiant effort indeed on the part of Old Fashioned, but he is now undefeated no more.

Win Willy crossed the wire in 1:44.41 and returned $115.60 for the win.  So much for obvious selections, huh? 

A closer look at Win Willy reveals that perhaps we should not have allowed him to get away at such generous odds.  The colt is clearly improving (well, clearly with the benefit of hindsight, that is), and was sired by Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos.  Now that he’s shown he can close into a swift pace going a route of ground, there’s reason to suspect today’s performance was not a fluke. 

So now what becomes of the ubiquitous Derby lists that abound on the blogosphere?  Well, I’ll take first crack at a revamped top 10 in light of all the happenings this weekend.

  1. Friesan Fire – welcome to the top of the mountain to Larry Jones “other” colt.
  2. The Pamplemousse – seems to be the A-horse of the California circuit
  3. Dunkirk - now becomes the horse who must live up to the hype
  4. Old Fashioned – can’t drop him too far off that performance in the Rebel
  5. Pioneer of the Nile – showdown looming with The Pamplemousse in April.
  6. I Want Revenge – dominating 8 length win in the Gotham has his stock rising
  7. Chocolate Candy – interested to see where this runner winds up next.
  8. Quality Road -  FOY winner will need to continue to step forward
  9. Musket Man - won a thriller in the TB Derby
  10. Win Willy – knock off the #1 seed and you earn yourself a seat at the table.

If you’re playing along in the Road to the Roses challenge, you’ll be able to add up to 3 additional runners to your stable this week starting on Monday.  Dunkirk, The Pamplemousse, and I Want Revenge will likely be my additions. 


Comments : 10 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,
Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Old Fashioned

Pioneer of the Nile guts it out to win the (G2) San Felipe

14 03 2009

 

Bob Baffert trained Pioneer of the Nile was all out in the stretch, but was able to maintain his drive and hold off the late charging Feisty Suances and Jeranimo to prevail in Saturday’s 72nd running of the $200,000 San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita.  The victory was the third in a row at the graded stakes level and boosted the lifetime earnings of Pioneer of the Nile to $784,200 in 7 lifetime starts.  Even more importantly, he’s now earned $240,000 so far this year having prevailed in the Robert B. Lewis (G2) last February. 

Results Chart

At the beginning of the race, jockey Joe Talamo sent speedy outside runner New Bay to the front, where he was able to set opening fractions of :23.96 and :48.60.   Pioneer of the Nile tracked about 4-5 lengths off of New Bay in the early going and began to move forward near the half-mile pole.   Once in the turn, jockey Garrett Gomez asked Pioneer for his run, and he made his bid with about 2 furlongs remaining.  He was able to pass New Bay entering the stretch, and then had to hold off the late charges of Feisty Suances and Jeranimo, who were running well late.

Pioneer of the Nile crossed the wire in the 1 1/16 mile San Felipe in  1:43. 35.  Sent off as the 1/5  favorite, he returned $2.60 for the win.  The $2 Trifecta with Feisty Suances in place and Jeranimo in show returned $72.20. 

The win was a sweet one for yours truly as I have both Pioneer of the Nile and jockey Garrett Gomez in the Road to the Roses challenge. 

Up next for the son of Empire Maker will be a showdown with The Pamplemousse  in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 4th.  Judging from what we’ve seen, he’ll likely have his hands full with The Grapefruit.   All of ‘Pioneer’s recent wins have been close though, so he is definitely a horse with some guts when it counts.   It is worth keeping in mind though that The Pamplemousse set early splits of :23 flat and :46 and change in his romp in the Sham on the last day in February. 

There’s still a chance that runners like Chocolate Candy and Stardom Bound could draw into the Santa Anita Derby, making it infinitely more interesting than the current 2-horse-race.  I expect Bob Baffert will have Pioneer of the Nile ready for a big effort in April.  It’s just that he’ll need his absolute best to get past The Pamplemousse.  However, you know what they say.  They all put their horseshoes on one hoof at a time.  A lesson we would be subjected to  in Arkansas before the day was through. 

 


Comments : 3 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,
Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pioneer of the Nile, Santa Anita

Old Fashioned the obvious choice for the Rebel

13 03 2009

It wasn’t that long ago that I was falling madly in love with a chestnut colt running  in the Rebel back in 2007.  While there is no Curlin (at least not yet) this year, we will be treated to one of (if not THE) finest colts in the nation on Saturday when trainer Larry Jones sends Old Fashioned to post,  leading the field for the 49th running of the Rebel (Grade 2) at Oaklawn Park. 

Past performances available here

  1. Old Fashioned (R. Dominguez/ L. Jones) 7/5*
  2. Hamazing Destiny (T .J. Thompson/ D. W. Lukas) 5/1
  3. Poltergeist (Q. Hamilton/ D. Von Hemel) 15/1
  4. Pointing Home (J. A. Garcia/ C. Dickey) 15/1
  5. Wise Kid (J. C. Caraballo/ T. Ritchey) 9/2
  6. His Greatness (L. J. Sterling Jr./ M. Salazar) 12/1
  7. Captain Cherokee (L. S. Quinonez/ S. Asmussen) 8/1
  8. Silver City (J. Court/ W. B. Calhoun) 4/1
  9. Win Willy (M. C. Berry/ M. Robertson) 20/1

It would appear that Old Fashioned has scared off most of the would-be challengers.  The son of Unbridled’s Song looms the standout in the Rebel field coming off 4 consecutive victories to open his career, including the Remsen (Grade 2) and the Southwest  (Grade 3).   He’s expected to waltz past this field, and it’s worth noting that Larry Jones will be at Oaklawn with Old Fashioned rather than at Fair Grounds with Friesan Fire.  It looks like he should continue his triumphant procession this weekend towards the Kentucky Derby. 

Wise Kid is the horse I’m anxious to see in this field.  He’s progressed nicely up the ranks from Maiden Special Weight to N2L Optional Claimers last out.  The  son of Lemon Drop Kid has never seen the likes of Old Fashioned, but he certainly belongs with the rest of the field.

Silver City would be the logical choice underneath in exactas, having finished in the money in all 5 lifetime races (including 3 impressive wins sprinting).  He faced off against Old Fashioned in the Southwest and held on for place.  You get the feeling the exact same thing will happen this weekend, which might make him vulnerable to being upset in the exacta pool by a runner like Wise Kid.

Poltergeist is a horse I heard a lot of buzz about going into the Southwest, but he didn’t really show up that day.  If you liked him that day, you’ve got to at least like the 15/1 morning line odds this weekend. 

The head-scratcher of this race is Hamazing Destiny.  He put up a 96 Beyer in his debut over the Oaklawn track sprinting 6 furlongs on February 7.  He’s also been turning in strong workouts in the mornings.  The question is, can he run that type of figure stretching out to 1 1/16 miles?   I’d make him prove it before accepting him at 5/1, but then again there’s not a whole lot else to hang your hat on in this race.

Captain Cherokee, His Greatness, and Win Willy look playable underneath.  Let’s see…that’s pretty much the entire field though.  The only horse I don’t think has a legit shot of hitting the board is Pointing Home. 

I’ll take Old Fashioned over Wise Kid and Silver City in place.  I’ll spread pretty deep for the bottom spots of the Superfecta by adding in Hamazing Destiny, Poltergeist, His Greatness, and Captain Cherokee for show.  Add Win Willy to that mix for 4th.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #1 Old Fashioned
  • $.10 Superfecta: 1/5,8/2,3,5,6,7,8/2,3,5,6,7,8,9 ($5.00)

That’ll do it folks…it’s been a long evening, so there’s your picks for the major Derby preps this weekend.   One note as a horse racing fan – do make sure you also check out the impressive filly Rachel Alexandra in the Fair Ground Oaks.  She just might be the best horse running all day.


Comments : 6 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Old Fashioned

Louisiana Derby the key to many questions

13 03 2009

Saturday’s 96th running of the Louisiana Derby (Grade 2) at Fair Grounds is arguably the strongest betting race of the 4 major Kentucky Derby prep races of the day (including the San Felipe, the Tampa Bay Derby, and the Rebel).  That’s due to the fact that several highly touted horses have entered in what appears to be an extremely competitive race.  When all is said and done we should be able to answer several burning questions, including whether Friesan Fire, Patena, and Flying Pegasus are the real deal(s), and whether Papa Clem can follow in the footsteps of I Want Revenge, who came east from California last week to win the Gotham at Aqueduct. 

Past performances available here

  1. Free Country (K. Desormeaux/ K. McPeek) 12/1
  2. Soul Warrior (S. Bridgmohan/ S. Asmussen) 20/1
  3. Patena (R. Albarado/ R. Dutrow) 7/2
  4. Terrain (J. Leparoux/ A. Stall Jr.) 10/1
  5. Flying Pegasus (J. Velazquez/ R. Nicks) 8/1
  6. Giant Oak (J. Graham/ C. Block) 4/1
  7. Uno Mas (B.J. Hernandez Jr./ S. Asmussen) 12/1
  8. Papa Clem (R. Bejarano/ G. Stute) 8/1
  9. Friesan Fire (G. Saez/ L. Jones) 5/2*
  10. Nowhere to Hide (C. Lanerie/ N. Zito) 15/1

Friesan Fire is your morning line favorite at 5/2.  He’s a guy who doesn’t get a lot of respect, yet quietly sits within most Derby lists in one of the top 5 slots.  Larry Jones is as solid a trainer as there is when it comes to getting 3-year-olds ready for the big time.  When teamed with jockey Gabriel Saez they create a human connection battery that is extremely formidable.  The son of A.P. Indy really turned it up a notch in his most recent workout, a bullet of 5 furlongs in :58 and change on March 9.   He’s exiting back to back wins in Grade 3 races; the LeComte and the Risen Star.  Jones seems to be bringing him along splendidly, and it’s encouraging to note how he took the added 1/16 of a mile in the Risen Star last out.   He’s obviously the one you’ve got to beat.

Patena is a horse that has to live up to his hype.  It’s now or never for this guy.  Quietly, despite the presence of Stardom Bound, this colt has been IEAH Stables prime Kentucky Derby contender in the minds of many.  We’ll see if he’s worth it on Saturday.  An encouraging note for handicappers to play on is that his last victory was over Hooh Why, who went on to run well against Stardom Bound in the Santa Anita Oaks.   Yes, that was a filly, but evidently a decent one (especially on synthetics).   He ran well chasing Friesan Fire in the LeComte last out, and that was at a weight disadvantage that he won’t have to face today.  Hopefully we’ll be able to tell a lot about this guy in the post parade.  Dutrow has been training him up for this and if he lives up to the hype he might rocket up the Derby rankings.

Flying Pegasus overcame a wide post in the Risen Star to run well behind Friesan Fire for 2nd.  I get the feeling this son of Fusaichi Pegasus is starting to put it all together and I would not be surprised to see him both improve and threaten for the victory.   Trouble is, he’s running into a deeper field than last time out, so he’ll have to improve.  I could go either way with this guy. 

Papa Clem is the sneaky horse of this field.  If you’re feeling a bit of deja vu, it’s because we’ve seen this story before: a horse who ran big against Pioneer of the Nile comes east, brings their jockey with them, and tries to go synthetic-to-dirt.  Watch out.  This guy made an extremely sharp impression on many in the post parade of the Robert B. Lewis and then went on to run huge, finishing ahead of I Want Revenge, who went on to take the Gotham (Grade 3) last weekend.  He’s a Smart Strike colt, much like a certain someone we all know.  At odds of 8/1 he’s an intriguing play, although I’d prefer having a posted workout to give us an indication of how he takes to the surface.  We’ll have to wait for the post parade.  If he makes a similar impression as he did last month, he’s the value play here in the win pool. (NOTE: See Edit Note in Selections section – apparently Papa didn’t ship very well)

Free Country, Uno Mas, and Nowhere to Hide all look usable underneath.  I don’t know why, but I’m just not a Giant Oak guy. Especially not at 4/1.  If his odds trickle up a bit he’s worth including, but he’s just not one of my top choices.  Hopefully the Oak doesn’t make me choke on Saturday. 

I’ll play Papa Clem and Friesan Fire for the win, in a bit of a departure from the norm.  I know that’s a bit odd.  I just don’t want to put all my eggs in one basket.   Weather could also play a role on Saturday, so I’ll spread my chances out by going in two slightly different directions.  I’ll settle on Friesan Fire for the Superfecta play, and  I’ll add in Patena and Flying Pegasus for place, with Uno Mas and Free Country for show.  I guess I’ll add in Giant Oak for 4th.   If Nowhere to Hide runs here instead of the Tampa Bay Derby I might add him in as well. 

Selections:

  • $20 Win #8 Papa Clem (EDIT:  I’m hearing over on Facebook that Papa Clem did not ship very well and my have a scraped leg. If true it would be wise to downgrade a bit…I may not be placing this wager)
  • $20 Win #9 Friesan Fire
  • $.10 Superfecta: 9/3,5,8/3,5,6,7, 8/1,3,5,6,7,8 ($4.80)

Comments : 2 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,
Categories : Fair Grounds, Friesan Fire, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Kentucky Derby Trail

Einstein runs away with the Big Cap

8 03 2009

 

The “older male” division has been looking for a new leader ever since the retirement of the 2008 Horse of the Year, Curlin.  Saturday’s 72nd running of the $1 million Santa Anita Handicap showed just how wide open that division appeared on paper as thirteen runners vied for the richest race of the winter meet.  The race appeared as deep as a Breeder’s Cup championship, with seemingly each horse in the field capable of prevailing.  In the end it was the class and versatility of Einstein that made the difference.

Much like we saw on Breeders’ Cup day last fall, horses who have performed strongly over the turf seem to thrive over the Santa Anita Pro Ride.  Einstien is now the consummate  multiple surface winner, having prevailed on turf, dirt, and synthetics;  but I think most players think of him as a much stronger turf runner than a main track runner.  That’s an angle you’ve always got to respect on the Pro Ride. 

Matto Mondo was sent off as the slight post time favorite and set the early pace travelling the first quarter in :24.52 and the half in :48.31 under jockey Rafael Bejarano.   Cowboy Cal stalked the early pace with Heroi Do Bafra and Einstein tucked in just behind him.   As the field entered the turn for home, Cowboy Cal and Einstein put the pressure on Matto Mondo.  Cowboy Cal was the first to challenge and drew nearly even with him in the turn.  Einstein swung wide to the outside and unleashed his run at the top of the stretch.

Leparoux then asked Einstein for his run and he was able to pull away heading for the wire.  With Matto Mondo slowly fading, the only remaining challenge was a big late run from Jose Valdivia and Champs Elysees  who exploded to the wire for 2nd. 

Einstein crossed the finish line in 2:01.93 for his 10th career victory, boosting his earnings to $2,278,020 in 24 lifetime starts.  Trainer  Helen Pitts would appear to have many options for the colt with his proven ability to run well over any surface he encounters.  It’s a long way until Breeders’ Cup weekend 2009, but for now Einstein would appear to be a horse worthy of consideration for the Classic.

The win was huge for me.  I had taken a proverbial bath on some of my selections yesterday, including a right good thrashing at the hands of  I Want Revenge in the Gotham and a tough loss for Ventura to Gio Ponti in Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap.  Stardom Bound came through, but only by the slimmest of margins and not at anything remotely resembling a price.  That meant that going into the Big Cap, arguably the best “betting race” we’d seen this year, all of my hopes were down to Einstein at 5/1.   I’m not sure if I’ve published this before or not, but we’re actually tracking our public selections over on the TBA homepage.  All the standard $20 win bets and superfecta plays I mention here get plugged into this spreadsheet that spits out our ROI.  You can tell from looking at the sheet that I’m not very successful with the superfectas, but I have managed to grind out a positive ROI thus far (although take away Einstein’s win and it’s suddenly a negative ROI).  Truth be told I need to be a bit more diligent in recording things on here.  You can see I’ve gone from just listing the # of the horse to now listing them by name so that it’s easier to track and observe what lessons I can from my errors. Now that I know I can share it with you all publicly that’s the gameplan.  In other words, get ready to watch that ROI come dropping down like a meteor.


Comments : 3 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , , ,
Categories : Einstein, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Santa Anita

Stardom Bound overcomes wide trip to win Santa Anita Oaks

7 03 2009

 

It wasn’t the way trainer Bobby Frankel and IEAH Stables had planned it, but it’s still a victory.  Stardom Bound, the 2008 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies champion had to earn her keep on Saturday in the Santa Anita Oaks (Grade 1), just nosing out longshot Third Dawn in a tantalizing photo finish that looked incredibly close to the naked eye. 

The win was her 5th consecutive in as many Grade 1 efforts, and boosted the daughter of Pulpit’s lifetime earnings to $1,780,600.  However, it also raised serious questions as to whether she’d point towards an eventual showdown with rival colts Pioneer of the Nile  and The Pamplemousse in the Santa Anita Derby this April. 

Burg Berg under jockey Tyler Baze was the early pacesetter, rattling off opening fractions of :23.78 and :47.54.   Hooh Why and jockey Robby Albarado pressed the pace while Stardom Bound trailed the field, giving the leader 10 lengths in the early going.

Turning for home it was Hooh Why for trainer Carla Gaines who got first jump.  Stardom Bound was in a terrible spot and forced extremely wide turning wide.  Longhshot Thid Dawn came with a late run in between horses in the final sixteenth while Nan made a bold move to the inside and began gobbling up ground.  All the while the grey Stardom Bound came bounding to the wire, and just when it looked like she might not make it, she found a way to get her nose down on the wire. 

She’s a classy filly.  That much is certain.  I’m just not so sure she should be shooting for either the Santa Anita Derby  or the Kentucky Derby.  What I’d love to see at this point is for her to come east in May and run in the Kentucky Oaks.  For now we’ll have to wait and see what IEAH decides to do with her next. 

 


Comments : 2 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , , ,
Categories : Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita, Stardom Bound

I Want Revenge dominating in the Gotham

7 03 2009

 

Jeff Mullins took a big chance shipping I Want Revenge to New York just in time for the Gotham.  We noted him as the “x-factor” in the pre-race handicapping selections, and certainly expected a big performance, but I don’t think anybody was properly prepared for how dominating he would be.  On Saturday jockey Joe Talamo and the talented son of Stephen Got Even (A.P. Indy) absolutely destroyed what appeared to be a competitive field of 3-year-old rivals, including Haynesfield, Mr. Fantasy, and Imperial Council. 

Mr. Fantasy was away quickly and fought to keep a slight lead over I Want Revenge in the early going setting early fractions of  :23.76 and :48.45.   I Want Revenge refused to back down from Mr. Fantasy and gradually wore him down.  At the top of the stretch the two were eyeball to eyeball.  Suddenly I Want Revenge let loose and bolted to the wire, opening up to an 8 1/2 length victory in 1:42.65

See, apparently you can go East and win on the  synthetics-to-dirt angle.  As we continue to absorb the nuances of handicapping synthetic surfaces, one thing seems clear to me.  Horses that run competitively on synthetics seem quite capable of running big on the main dirt tracks.  We saw this last year with Colonel John, and now we’ve seen it again with I Want Revenge. 

The win figures to flatter the Derby prospects of two other California colts; The Pamplemousse and Pioneer of the Nile.  Handicappers will have to rethink where they rank these contenders in light of this successful California invasion.  It’s not a matter of if, but rather when a “synthetic runner” from California will win the Kentucky Derby.   That much is certain. 

I Want Revenge returned $8.30  to his backers for the win.  Imperial Council was up late for place but never really threatened.   Mr. Fantasy held on for show. 

Results Chart

Up next for I Want Revenge would appear to be the Wood Memorial (Grade 1) on April 4 .  The colt now has 2 wins from 7 lifetime starts and has been in-the-money in all of his efforts.


Comments : 11 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,
Categories : Aqueduct, Fantasy Horse Racing, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita

Stardom Bound looks to steal the show on Big Cap Day at Santa Anita.

7 03 2009

Go ahead.  Beat her if you can. California’s top three-year-old filly takes her next step today in the 70th running of the Santa Anita Oaks (Grade 1).   Eight other fillies have lined up to challenge the daughter of Tapit who continues to flirt with Kentucky Derby dreams.  On a day that feature arguably the most competitive race of the year in the $1,000,000 Santa Anita Handicap, the return of Stardom Bound in the Santa Anita Oaks figures to be the most compelling story of the day.   The field sets up like this:

  1. Stardom Bound (M. Smith/R. Frankel) 2/5*
  2. Burg Berg (T. Baze/P. Gonzalez) 10/1
  3. Miss Silver Brook (A. Solis/J. Canani) 12/1
  4. Hooh Why (R. Albarado/ C. Gaines) 15/1
  5. Stormy Slew (J. Velazquez/D. O’Neill) 30/1
  6. Nan (C. Nakatani/ C. Dollase) 15/1
  7. Will O Way (R. Baze/ V. Cerin) 8/1
  8. Beltene (J. Rosario/ J. Carava) 15/1
  9. Third Dawn (J. Sadler/R. Bejarano) 30/1

A victory here could propel Stardom Bound to the Santa Anita Derby and beyond.  A defeat and her connections may have to regroup.  While on paper she may look entirely like a 2/5 favorite, we’ve all seen her visually and know she has at least a fraction of the same special qualities we see in Zenyatta.  She’s the class of her field, and nobody is going to touch her today. 

A horse that I think can really get up into the money at some long odds is Beltene.  All this horse has done is rattle off 3 lifetime victories in as many starts.   She’s beaten 22 horses thus far.  I’m not saying she’ll beat Stardom Bound, but beyond the obvious favorite there aren’t any that look like monsters in here.  At 15/1 I’ll bite that this one can wind up in the money.  The distance will be the obvious question. 

Hooh Why is another horse at longer odds that I think could make some noise here.  The angle that leaps out at you is the fine finish behind the highly regarded Patena in the Display at Woodbine on 12/6/08.  She doesn’t seem to run bad races either.  Love seeing a filly who has battled with colts (and good ones at that) and run a big race.  My money says she’ll be a player here for a minor award.

Burg Berg is an obvious contender for the exacta as she will likely control the early pace.  Stardom Bound will be looking to run her down to stretch to score.  I’m not sure if she wants to go the distance today.  If she can hang on she’s a logical choice for place.  If she fades she’ll likely be off the board.  Ultimately I think you’ve got to use her.

Miss Silver Brook is another who could take some play.  Trainer Julio Canani is already having a brilliant 2009 campaign thanks to the top dog in his stable, The Pamplemousse.  This filly seems to have been training lights out recently and could be picking off horses late. 

Lastly you have to consider the other horses with graded stakes experience; Nan and Will O Way. Of those two I prefer Will O Way at the 1 1/16 mile distance. 

I’ll play Stardom Bound on top and look to catch some value underneath with Miss Silver Brook, Burg Berg, and Beltene in place.  I’ll add in Hooh Why and Will O Way for show.  We’ll round it out with Nan and Third Dawn on the bottom.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #1 Stardom Bound
  • $.10 Superfecta: 1/2,3,8/2,3,4,7,8/2,3,4,6,7,8,9 ($6.00)

Looking over the rest of the Santa Anita card.  The Big Cap looks like a tremendous betting race, especially with the defection of lukewarm favorite Colonel John.  I like Einstein to run a big figure over the Pro Ride. You could make a case for virtually the entire field though.  Just an excellent race from top to bottom.  In the Fank Kilroe I like the filly, Ventura.


Comments : 6 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita, Square Eddie, Stardom Bound

« Previous Entries


Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.