Quality Road, I Want Revenge top Derby rankings

5 04 2009

 

While the past week didn’t produce any shocking upsets or long prices in the major Derby preps, it was arguably the most important of the entire campaign.  It now appears that The Pamplemousse will be off the Kentucky Derby trail.  The impact of this blow was softened somewhat by a dominating performance from I Want Revenge in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, proving that he is a legitimate Derby threat (and possibly more).   Everyone is furiously adjusting their rankings taking into account the recent changes as all of the roads to the Derby begin to converge.  

We’re getting down to H-hour, folks.  You can feel it in the air.  I even cut my lawn this weekend for the first time this Spring.  I’m a bit upset that we’ve lost The Pamplemousse, as he was one of my favorites, but I’m hopeful that  a horse like Dunkirk will now find a way to squeeze into the field.  He’ll make it a more interesting race if he does.   With a month to go, here’s how I rank ‘em.  

 

  • #1 Quality Road  - Hard not to give him the slight edge by virtue of his brilliant wins in the Florida Derby (G1) and the Fountain of Youth (G2), but it was not an easy decision.   His sire, Elusive Quality, also gave us Smarty Jones a few years back, and  we all know how that turned out.  The biggest question he will face is whether the track at Gulfstream Park was favoring his speedy style.  With the defection of The Pamplemousse the likely pace outlook has changed.  I think it will take  a horse who is somewhat forwardly placed to win it now, and Quality Road should be right there.  A sensational colt who could be our best Triple Crown threat.

 

  • #2 I Want Revenge-  Feel you could rank the top three runners as 1, 1A, and 1B.   I Want Revenge was just absolutely dominating in winning the Wood.  He had no business winning that race, and he didn’t even have to win it.  The fact that he did so makes it a mind blowing performance – off the Richter scale impressive.  It’s exciting to see jockey Joe Talamo have his chance on a big named 3-year-old.  Looks like a force to be reckoned with.

 

  • #3 Friesan Fire – Drops a bit, though not by anything he has done.  It’s just that as impressive as he looked winning the Louisiana Derby (G2), Quality Road and I Want Revenge have looked even better. Larry Jones is giving the colt a long break before the Triple Crown campaign begins, and he’ll go into the Derby on 6 weeks rest.  I know some folks are questioning that, but I would not question anything Jones does with 3-year-olds as for my money he’s the best in the business with them.   I would not forget about this guy come the first Saturday in May.  He threw a sharp bullet work just before his performance in the Louisiana Derby (G2).  Pay attention to how he works leading up to the big day.

 

  • #4 Pioneer of the Nile - Moves to the front of the California division by virtue of his victory in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) as much as the defection of The Pamplemousse from the Derby trail.   Many think he’s bred for turf/synthetics, but he’s a fighter that finds a way to win.  The obvious challenge in predicting his Derby potential is that we’ve yet to see him run on true dirt and won’t until the first Saturday in May.  For what it’s worth, the colt is currently on top of our 3-year-old colt standings over at the TBA.

 

  • #5 Dunkirk – Still has to draw into the field, but if he does he has to be given a chance.  The only horse to have bested him thus far is Quality Road, so if that one is a serious contender than Dunkirk must be as well.   I’d prefer to see him pack on a little muscle before the Derby, but this guy still has a world of upside potential.   Didn’t look like he enjoyed his hard effort in the Florida Derby (G1), but is bred to go the distance.  I suspect he’ll be the “wiseguy” horse going into the Derby.  With the loss of The Pamplemousse and the wins by Musket Man and I Want Revenge last weekend, he just might make it into the field.  It’ll be close. 

 

  • #6 Old Fashioned – Has a chance to redeem himself in the Arkansas Derby next week.  At one point this guy was the favorite for the Derby.   He let one horse get passed him in the stretch of the Rebel  (G2) and then came crashing to earth.  Clearly he is option  B now behind Friesan Fire for Larry Jones, but this colt could still make some noise before all is said and done.

 

  • #7 Desert Party – I felt that this was the right spot for one of the two Godolphin runners from Dubai (Regal Ransom, winner of the G2 UAE Derby, being the other).  You could rank whichever one you like the most here.  My feeling was that Desert Party would get a chance to prove the UAE Derby effort a fluke and turn the tables on Regal Ransom.  There doesn’t seem to be much separating these two.  This guy’s stock will rise or fall depending on how he looks once arriving in Kentucky. 

 

  • #8 Win Willy – I’ve been on this guy’s bandwagon since his run in the Rebel (G2), and will likely remain on board for the ride as far as he takes us.   I was blown away by his powerful move in the Rebel.  If he defeats Old Fashioned again in the Arkansas Derby, than he’ll prove he’s a  legit contender.   His chances in the Derby will likely come down to the pace setup and what gate he draws as he seems to be a closer. 

 

  • #9 Chocolate Candy - Ran well in the Santa Anita Derby but could not get past Pioneer of the Nile.   He’s another who it will be hard to gauge on true dirt until we see some strong workouts. 

 

  • #10 Musket Man – Not sure how this guy will stack up against the big boys as he’s been facing weaker competition, but he is a horse who knows how to find the winner’s circle.  A $15,000 purchase at the September 2007 Keeneland sale, he continues to move forward with each performance.  Illinois Derby win gives him victories at 4 tracks now in just 6 lifetime starts.  That’s got to count for something and suggests he’ll ship well to Kentucky. 

 

Other horses to keep an eye on include:  Papa Clem, Theregoesjojo, Regal Ransom, and Mafaaz.  Up next this weekend are the Arkansas Derby (G2) and the Blue Grass (G1).


Comments : 22 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,
Categories : Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Churchill Downs, Pioneer of the Nile, Friesan Fire, horse racing, The Pamplemousse, Quality Road, I Want Revenge

Imperial Council wants revenge

3 04 2009

Four weeks ago, I Want Revenge served notice on the 2009 Kentucky Derby trail by turning in an impressive 113 Beyer figure on his way to an 8 1/2 length victory over Imperial Council, Mr. Fantasy, and others in the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct.  This Saturday, Imperial Council will make his bid for revenge as the two square off in the 85th running of the Grade 1 Wood Memorial.  The Wood is part of  an all-stakes Pick 4 sequence that begins with the Bayshore (G3), moves on to the Excelsior (G3) and finishes with the Carter Handicap (G1). 

The field sets up like this:

  • #2 I Want Revenge (J. Talamo/J. Mullins) 4/5*
  • #3 Lord Justice (C.C. Lopez/ T. Pletcher) 15/1
  • #4Cellar Dweller (A. Napravnik/ J. Campo) 30/1
  • #1 Atomic Rain (J. Bravo/K. Breen) 6/1
  • #1A West Side Bernie (S. Elliot/ K. Breen) 6/1
  • #5 Imperial Council (E. Prado/C. McGaughey) 2/1
  • #6 Just a Coincidence (J. Velazquez/ N. Zito) 12/1
  • #7 Lime Rickey (J. Castellano/ F. Alexander) 20/1

Past Performances available here from the Road to the Roses challenge

Looking back at I Want Revenge in his dominating performance in the Gotham, the son of Stephen Got Even had everything go his way.  He was able to comfortably stalk a soft pace and when he made his move to surge past Mr. Fantasy, the race was over.  Imperical Council came running hard from the back of the pack to close to 2nd, but never was able to threaten I Want Revenge. 

 

If he gets the same trip in the Wood, the outcome will likely be exactly the same.  From a pace setup, you could argue that the Wood figures to be run a bit quicker than the Gotham was.   If Lord Justice runs here (he’s also entered in the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne on Saturday), than he’s your likely pace setter.  However, Atomic Rain may show some speed as well, as might Nick Zito’s Just a Coincidence.  Might that open things up for Imperial Council coming off the pace? 

Imperial Council likely left himself way too much to do in the Gotham, and closing into I Want Revenge’s dream trip was seemingly an impossibility.  Today he’ll get an extra half furlong of ground, plus a bit wider turns as they move from the inner track to the main track.  Couple that with perhaps a better pace scenario and I think an upset here starts to become a possibility.  I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again;  despite the attention that Pioneer of the Nile receives on the California circuit, it would not surprise me if Imperial Council turned out to be the best of the Empire Maker offspring in this crop of three-year-olds – and Saturday just might be his day.  It’s also worth noting that he’s got Edgar Prado back in the saddle, so a return to his previous style of being noticeably closer to the pace should be expected.  Even trainer Shug McGaughey is quoted as saying as much in Saturday’s DRF. 

West Side Bernie and Atomic Rain make an intriguing pair of runners, but ultimately their coupling actually deflates the betting attraction of this race.   With only seven possible numbers to punch in your ticket, don’t expect bank breaking value here.  I’d cover the top 2 runners if you’re wading into the $400,000 guaranteed Pick 4 pool and move on. 

I think the world of I Want Revenge and have been a fan of jockey Joe Talamo’s since well before he earned fame on the series “Jockeys” - but I’ll probably play against him this weekend and look for Imperial Council at slightly better odds.  I suspect the public will hammer I Want Revenge thanks to his impressive speed figures, so even that 4/5 value on the morning line might not hold.  Admittedly I’d like a bit better risk/reward value than 2/1 on Imperial Council, but I’d be happy to get 3/1 or so by post time.  I think both of these horses are Kentucky Derby worthy, and with I Want Revenge most likely having his card already punched, we’ll see if Imperial Council can join him at the big party on the First Saturday in May.

It’s not that I don’t think I Want Revenge will win – he probably will, it’s just that there’s no value in taking him, and I can come up with a few scenarios in my mind where he could be vulnerable (could is the operative term there, note that I did not say “would”).   In the end I’ll be betting on the fact that while he may be clearly better than Imperial Council, I doubt that he’s really 8 lengths better.   This one ought to be closer, and Imperial Council should at least have a chance if all goes well. 

Alas, there is no 10 cent Superfecta wagering available on the Wood, so I’ll skip the single race exotic wagering and save my bankroll for later plays.  Besides – we’re going Pick 4 or bust at Aqueduct.  It’s time to welcome in April in triumphant style!

In the other races of the Pick 4 sequence  I like Capt. Candyman Can and Not for Silver in the Bayshore (G3).  I’ll spread a little deeper in the Excelsior (G3) and cover Barrier Reef, Alaazo, and Cool Coal Man.  In the Carter Handicap (G1) I’ll cover four numbers with True Quality, Fabulous Strike, Tale of Ekati, and Kodiak Kowboy.  

Selections:

  • $20 Win #5 Imperial Council
  • Race 7  All stakes Pick 4:  4,6/1,2,6/2,5/1,3,4,7  ($48)

 


Comments : 5 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , ,
Categories : Aqueduct, Handicapping Selections, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby Trail

Quality Road deserves top ranking

29 03 2009

A horse, a horse, my kingdom for a horse!

Now that Quality Road has dispatched the heavily hyped Dunkirk, just where does the son of Elusive Quality belong in the rankings for the 2009 Kentucky Derby?  All the way at the top, if you ask me.  His gutsy performance to hold off the late charging Dunkirk in the stretch at Gulfstream Park has convinced me that this lightly raced colt will be a force to be reckoned with come the first Saturday in May. 

Quality Road finds another gear to hold off Dunkirk in the Florida Derby

Ranking the Derby contenders gets incredibly complex, if you allow it to be so, due to the different paths being taken by the various runners.  Without an opportunity to size them up in face-to-face competition, one is left using the non-scientific approach of interjecting much speculation into their analysis.   Even taking things as straightforward as final time comparisons cannot be considered truly “apples to apples” due to the differences in surface at each of the race tracks in question. 

So what are we to make of Quality Road?  How does he match up with the other big guns?   At some point you have to draw the line between hype and actual production.  It’s a blurred line and one that is constantly changing as the situation unfolds.  For example, I believe that right now you have to rank Friesan Fire and Quality Road above the other contenders.  They’ve finished their preps, and they’ve both done so in impressive style.  Just around the corner, however, we’ll get our best read on the contenders coming from California (in the Santa Anita Derby), and New York (In the Wood Memorial), so things are not set in stone at the top of the list.  

Let’s start by looking at the top 5:

  • #1 Quality Road
  • #2 Friesan Fire
  • #3 The Pamplemousse
  • #4 Pioneer of the Nile
  • #5  I Want Revenge

I don’t think there’s much variety out there in terms of who belongs in the top 5.  The argument seems to be  where these top 5 should be ranked in relation to one another.  Disregard the #1 and #2 rankings for a moment on Friesan Fire and Quality Road.  Truth be told I consider them to be dual #1 contenders.  Both colts used similar stalk and pounce approaches to cash in on their recent victories.  Friesan Fire had to run down the speedy Papa Clem early on, and then hold off late charges from Terrain and Giant Oak.   Many of the bigger named horses who gave the Louisiana Derby such a deep feel prior to the race (Flying Pegasus, Patena, etc.) simply did not fire for whatever reason, leaving Friesan Fire with a relatively easy victory once he reeled in Papa Clem.   Quality Road didn’t face a field quite as deep on paper, but the big names in the Florida Derby did show up to run, as he had to hold off the late charging Dunkirk in the stretch (as well as Theregoesjojo who ran well enough for show) after dispensing with longshot pacesetter Casey’s on Call.  The end result?  I think you’ve got to have these guys one, two.  Where you rank them amongst each other is open for debate, but for now I”ll give the slight edge to Quality Road, and continue to be disappointed that I could not select the horse in the Road to the Roses challenge.

Moving down the list, the next great debate is what to do with the California runners and I Want Revenge.  Obviously if I Want Revenge had remained in California, this would be easier to do from a direct comparison standpoint.  However, that would have left us completely unable to determine how these colts might run once they tried the dirt for the first time.  With the defections of Papa Clem and I Want Revenge and the subsequent success they’ve enjoyed, their would seem to be much promise for the colts currently leading the California Division;  The Pamplemousse and Pioneer of the Nile.  Until Pioneer of the Nile shows he can rundown The Grapefruit (which he very well might do in the upcoming Santa Anita Derby), I”ll continue to rank The Pamplemousse ahead of him.  With The Pamplemousse firmly entrenched at 3rd, that makes things simple for me as I can look at the next two and say “well, Pioneer of the Nile defeated I Want Revenge head to head, so he stays on top for now.”  Of course, it’s never quite that easy, and the 113 Beyer figure that I Want Revenge earned on dirt in the Gotham suggests he’s just as capable as Quality Road.  Here’s one last factor in stacking them as I have above.  Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse will square off face to face next weekend at Santa Anita, so we’ll get a much clearer read on how they match up.  I Want Revenge will face a challenge from some of the lower ranked contenders, and could be vulnerable if a runner like Imperial Council rises to the occasion. 

  • #6 Old Fashioned
  • #7 Imperial Council
  • #8 Dunkirk
  • #9  Chocolate Candy
  • #10 Win Willy

Things get a bit fuzzier once you’re outside of the top 5.   The first challenge is what to do with the falling stock of both Dunkirk and Old Fashioned.   Dunkirk in particular might not have enough earnings to even qualify for the Kentucky Derby, which basically makes his position on a Derby rankings list rather moot.  Let’s say he does find a way to draw into the field though.  Then what would we make of him?   Is he not good enough to merit consideration among the bigger guns?   We  must remember that the Florida Derby was this horse’s third race of his career.  There’s still a tremendous amount of room for improvement, and judging from the way this guy is bred and the fact that he’s only allowed one horse to finish in front of him so far (and did not go down without a fight), I think you’ve got to keep him around.  Ditto for Old Fashioned.  Larry Jones is simply too good a horseman for this guy to fall too far.  I’m convinced Friesan Fire is his best shot, but Old Fashioned has enough class in him to get past many in this year’s crop.  

Then you’ve got some room for “buzz” horses and longshots.  Imperial Council fits into that former category and now becomes the hype horse in the rankings.  He’ll get a shot to turn the tables on I Want Revenge in the Wood, and if he were to do so he’d have to be considered a top 5 contender in the Derby at least.  I’m still holding out hope that this guy could be the best of the Empire Maker colts this year (with all due respect to Pioneer of the Nile). 

Chocolate Candy is now the “Rodney Dangerfield” of this list.  Each week it’s someone different who gets no respect.  In CC’s case, I believe it’s because folks simply haven’t had many good looks at him..  All that will change next weekend with the Santa Anita Derby.   He needs to finish in the top 3 to warrant this ranking, but stop for a moment and consider what a shakeup it would be if he found a way to prevail?   I’m not saying that will happen, but what would the fallout be if it did?  The only thing I can find that he hasn’t done is to win a race recently. 

Lastly, there’s my longshot Win Willy, who I’m going to hold onto in this rankings until someone else forces me to remove him.   I’ll clue you in on another thought going through my mind right now that relates to this guy.  The Pamplemousse is a speedy type.  Friesan Fire, Quality Road, and even Old Fashioned like to be just off the pace anywhere from 2nd to 4th in the early running.  We just might have enough early zip up front that things could open up for a closer like this.  It might take some additional lights out speed signed up on the front end, but I’m just saying that a horse that isn’t on most people’s lists despite running a very visually impressive race to defeat the then top ranked Old Fashioned still warrants some consideration.  

So there you have it, for the moment at least.  In the spirit of the increasingly annoying Capital One credit card commercials:  “Who’s on your list? “


Comments : 15 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Categories : Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pioneer of the Nile, Friesan Fire, horse racing, The Pamplemousse, Quality Road, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk

How deep?

22 03 2009

“There were these two fellars standin’ on a bridge, a-goin’ to the bathroom. One fellar said, “The water’s cold” and the other fellar said, “The water’s deep”. I believe one fella come from Arkansas. Get it?” 

Billy Bob Thornton’s memorable character Carl from the film Sling Blade  may as well have been talking about the depth in this year’s crop of 3-year-old thoroughbreds when he uttered the memorable phrase quoted above.  While everyone, including myself, plods away at the ubiquitous “top 10″  lists for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, there’s an interesting story line running right beneath the surface that is only beginning to be touched upon.  If we are willing to accept, as many are, that 2007 was a uniquely deep year for 3-year-old thoroughbreds,  and that the emergence of Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday, and the filly Rags to Riches represented one of the  most talented overall crops our eyes have been blessed to see – than the prospects for 2009 look extremely bright.  While this past weekend at Turfway Park was hardly the type of high-profile marquee racing action needed to return the sport to it’s glory days, some happenings throughout the week provided clues as to just how deep this field may be.

So, with gratuitous top 10 lists on the brain, Let’s start by taking a look at our current rankings here at The Aspiring Horseplayer.

(Note: until they are definitively pointed to the Derby, I’m assuming Stardom Bound and Rachel Alexandra are headed to the Oaks…for the record I’d probably be inclined to rank Rachel Alexandra #1 overall at the moment if she did point to the Derby, and if she weren’t #1,  she’d be darn close.  Stardom Bound is more difficult to rank.  My heart says to rank her high, but my gut tells me no higher than 4th behind Pioneer and The Pamplemousse…for the moment that is).  

  • #1 Friesan Fire – deserves to be ranked #1 off his impressive victory in the Louisiana Derby.  Appears to be getting a rest before the Triple Crown, something that will cause some to downgrade his chances slightly.  Trainer Larry Jones is as good as they get, so if he’s training smartly once he sets foot at Churchill, he’ll be hard to dethrone as the likely favorite.

 

 

  • #3 Pioneer of the Nile -  I started out the year determined to not become over-infatuated with the California runners, and look what’s become of me!   “Look what they done to my Santino!  Look what they done to my boy!!! “  He can leapfrog The Grapefruit if he can beat him in the Santa Anita Derby in two weeks.  It’s showdown time in the wild, wild, west.

 

  • #4 Dunkirk -  It’s almost inexplicable.  A colt with $0 in graded stakes earnings just over a month before the Kentucky Derby, who did not run as a 2-year-old, is taking the future wagers action by storm!  Clearly we all saw something in that allowance victory that hints at greatness.  My thought after watching the race was that it reminded me of seeing Curlin or Big Brown in their 3-year-old allowance victories.  I think that’s exactly why this guy is so popular.  People see his potential and they associate the recent success of Curlin and Big Brown off of similarly lightly raced resumes.  It’s just that we must temper that expectation a bit by the realization that he’s certainly running in a deeper crop of 3-year olds than Big Brown did, and he might be running in a deeper crop than even Curlin did…and he’s even more lightly raced than those two were.  He’s hyper-lightly raced.   We’ll find out if he’s the real deal in the Florida Derby next weekend.  A loss will send him plummeting.  A win might make him the Derby favorite. 

 

  • #5  I Want Revenge -  it’s not improper to actually have this guy ranked ahead of the other California colts (and Dunkirk) all the way up at #2 by virtue of his impressive 113 Beyer performance in the G3 Gotham.  He’ll get tested again in the Wood in April and bounce candidates will likely be looking to feast, but now there’s rumor that IEAH is attempting to purchase the colt after their “A-horse” (Patena) did not run particularly well in the Louisiana Derby last weekend.  Is Joe Talamo going to win a Derby before he’s old enough to legally consume a Mint Julep in the winner’s circle? 

 

  • #6 Quality Road -  he’s often my forgotten horse.  My head-scratcher.  Like I Want Revenge, he also owns a 113 Beyer figure that seemingly towers over the competition.   He’ll have to prove he can do that going longer than the abbreviated Fountain of Youth.  He’s capable of beating the runners ranked above him.

 

  • #7  Old Fashioned -  Hard to drop him too far off one lifetime defeat, but things don’t seem to be going the right way here.   Was the near-consensus #1 just a few weeks ago.

 

  • #8 Win Willy -  I’m hoping to be out in front of the bandwagon on this guy.   Looking over his effort against Old Fashioned, I can’t help but sing:  “…then I saw his face.  Now I’m a believer!”  Or in keeping with my Sling Blade theme, I could always fall back upon the following defense if this guy fails:  “They turned me loose from the nervous hospital!”  It is interesting to keep in mind that someone  (IEAH?) tried to purchase him after his upset of Old Fashioned, so at least someone else out there liked what they saw as well. 

 

  • #9 Imperial Council -  Does anyone really think this guy can’t jump up and win the Wood?  If he does take the Wood, he’ll  be “Rocket man, burning out his fuse up here alone!” and probably have the fastest rising stock of the group.  If he turns in a sub-par performance and I Want Revenge waltzes away with it, it’ll be back to square one. 

 

  • #10 Chocolate Candy – We haven’t heard from this guy in a while, but he’ll get a crack at Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse in the Santa Anita Derby this April.  He appears to be the third best of that group, but I’m not ready to count him out of this fight just yet.  It’ll likely be a small but talented field in the SA Derby, including Mr. Hot Stuff. 

 

Most fans have some combination of the same runners in their top selections: Friesan Fire, The Pamplemousse, Pioneer of the Nile,  Dunkirk, and I Want Revenge.

Depending upon how one feels the “filly saga” will play out, Rachel Alexandra and Stardom Bound certainly deserve mention among those competitors.  Rachel Alexandra in particular could be the best of the entire crop, as she’s been running faster than the boys on dirt, but for now appears bound for the Oaks.   Stardom Bound is a gutsy competitor who reminds me  in many ways of Zenyatta with her sheer determination to win.  Many are holding out hope that IEAH decides to point her to the Derby instead of the Oaks.

Now here’s where it gets interesting.  The logical win candidates for the Derby do not end with those horses.  You’ve got to at least mention Quality Road and his gaudy 113 Beyer.   After all, that’s the same figure I Want Revenge earned.  It’s just that Quality Road only went a mile, but he looks like he’ll go longer with no problems. 

Then there’s Dunkirk.  He’s the x-factor of the crop as he’s been heavily played in future wager pools despite having a whopping total of $0 in graded stakes earnings.  It’ll be all or nothing for Dunkirk in the Florida Derby next week.   If he’s harassed by the Wehrmacht and the Luftwaffe entering the far turn…no wait, scratch that…wrong Dunkirk.  Although he does need a clean trip.

How about Old Fashioned?  Remember that guy?  Just a few weeks ago he was the consensus #1 among most of us pundits, now here he is towards the bottom of the list.   He’s only been beaten by 1 horse in his career, but there are storm clouds on the horizon.  Larry Jones has stated Friesan Fire is the best colt in his barn, and there was a comment made during the ESPN broadcast yesterday that it’s “now or never” for Old Fashioned.   He’s got the talent and class to reach down and run a big one, but as of right now I think you have to rate others higher. 

So who was that one horse who managed defeat Old Fashioned?  Oh yeah, Win Willy!  Honestly he’s the guy I”ll probably take the most flak (there’s my 2nd gratuitous World War 2 reference of the post) for continuing to rank in my top contenders.  I’m trusting my eyes on this one, and my eyes told me that this was a fine colt with big races still ahead of him.

That’s 10 horses already that have legitimate shots to win the Derby.  And guess what, we can still go deeper.   Imperial Council will go into the Wood as either the 2nd or 3rd choice on the morning line behind I Want Revenge and (possibly) Quality Road.   He may not have the same foundation as Pioneer of the Nile, but he could still wind up being the best of the Empire Maker offspring in this crop.   It wouldn’t take much to imagine him finding a way to prevail in the Wood, and if he did than he’d obviously leapfrog I Want Revenge. 

And the list goes on and on.  I’m going to bypass Dubai for the time being.  Suffice to say there are a couple of runners who could still ship to the U.S. and make some noise this spring, but until they do I’ll view them as outsiders.  Add to this list the likes of Chocolate Candy, Musket Man, Theregoesjojo,  and Papa Clem and you get the picture. 

 So how deep is this year’s field?   it’s Arkansas -fellar pissin’ on a bridge deep!   That’s how deep we’re talking about here.


Comments : 4 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Kentucky Derby, Stardom Bound, Pioneer of the Nile, Friesan Fire, Old Fashioned, horse racing

I Want Revenge dominating in the Gotham

7 03 2009

 

Jeff Mullins took a big chance shipping I Want Revenge to New York just in time for the Gotham.  We noted him as the “x-factor” in the pre-race handicapping selections, and certainly expected a big performance, but I don’t think anybody was properly prepared for how dominating he would be.  On Saturday jockey Joe Talamo and the talented son of Stephen Got Even (A.P. Indy) absolutely destroyed what appeared to be a competitive field of 3-year-old rivals, including Haynesfield, Mr. Fantasy, and Imperial Council. 

Mr. Fantasy was away quickly and fought to keep a slight lead over I Want Revenge in the early going setting early fractions of  :23.76 and :48.45.   I Want Revenge refused to back down from Mr. Fantasy and gradually wore him down.  At the top of the stretch the two were eyeball to eyeball.  Suddenly I Want Revenge let loose and bolted to the wire, opening up to an 8 1/2 length victory in 1:42.65

See, apparently you can go East and win on the  synthetics-to-dirt angle.  As we continue to absorb the nuances of handicapping synthetic surfaces, one thing seems clear to me.  Horses that run competitively on synthetics seem quite capable of running big on the main dirt tracks.  We saw this last year with Colonel John, and now we’ve seen it again with I Want Revenge. 

The win figures to flatter the Derby prospects of two other California colts; The Pamplemousse and Pioneer of the Nile.  Handicappers will have to rethink where they rank these contenders in light of this successful California invasion.  It’s not a matter of if, but rather when a “synthetic runner” from California will win the Kentucky Derby.   That much is certain. 

I Want Revenge returned $8.30  to his backers for the win.  Imperial Council was up late for place but never really threatened.   Mr. Fantasy held on for show. 

Results Chart

Up next for I Want Revenge would appear to be the Wood Memorial (Grade 1) on April 4 .  The colt now has 2 wins from 7 lifetime starts and has been in-the-money in all of his efforts.


Comments : 11 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,
Categories : Aqueduct, Fantasy Horse Racing, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita

Gotham has many options

6 03 2009

You’ve got to love this time of year.  Here in the Mid Atlantic the weather has turned from an icy snow storm at the dawn of the week to a much needed spring preview with gorgeous 60° temperatures for the weekend.  Once again it’s time to go through the manly ritual of cleaning out the grill and preparing for prime barbecue season.  Ribs, chicken, steak, burgers.  “Meat and fire, baby!”  And nothing goes with a spring barbecue like a meaningful throughoughbred horse race, especially one that could tell us quite a bit about several hopefuls for the 2009 Kentucky Derby.  It’s Take Back Saturday time for sure.  Check that….it’s hyper Take Back Saturday!

The field for the 57th running of the $250,000 Gotham (Grade 3) @ Aqueduct (1 1/16 Miles):

Play along with Past Performances from the Road to the Roses fantasy challenge available here

  1. Naos (M. Luzzi/ T. Pletcher) 20/1
  2. Russell Road (T. Dunkelberger/J. Casey) 20/1
  3. Masala (E. Coa/T. PLetcher) 5/1
  4. Axel Foley (R. Migliore/K. McLaughlin) 15/1
  5. Mr. Fantasy (A. Garcia/K. McLaughlin) 7/2
  6. Haynesfield (C. Lopez/S. Asmussen) 5/1
  7. Imperial Council (R. Maragh/C. McGaughey) 5/2*
  8. I Want Revenge (J. Talamo/J. Mullins) 3/1
  9. Giant Ryan (J. Sanchez/B. Parboo) 50/1

Right away there is a major dilemma for me.  I fully expected Haynesfield to be the chalk favorite here, but apparently the hype surrounding Shug McGaughey’s colt Imperial Council has  reached deeper than I thought.  To be fully honest, I was planning on trying to beat Haynesfield with him.  Now I may have to look elsewhere if the odds hold.  Before we get into that though, let’s run through the horses a bit more thoroughly.

Naos breaks from the inside for trainer Todd Pletcher, who suddenly has a bevy of Derby contenders after appearing to start the year on a down note.  ‘Patient, grasshopper!”  He looks a bit outclassed here though to me.  That being said, take a look at the developmental cycle of the other Lion Heart colt in this race, Masala, and suddenly it’s not difficult to imagine a move forward on the speed figure scales on Saturday.  Trouble is, he’ll have to run by some pretty good horses in the stretch, which might be asking a bit much.  He seems to enjoy the added ground if his last effort at Philly Park is any indication.   Also have to like that he’s at least had some stakes experience.  I could see this horse having brighter days ahead of him.  I’m just not sold yet that Saturday will be one of them.   I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he hit the board though.

Russell Road warrants some mention in this field.  While he seems a class below the rest, there’s not much you can say against a horse who has won 6 consecutive races.  It’s just that those were sprinting further south in West Virginia and Maryland and this is a tough field to face stretching out over a mile for the first time in his career.  He has seemed to run his best races when going the tricky 7 furlong distance.   Still, it looks like he’d need to run the race of his life to win this.  He’s another you’ve got to respect with a chance to hit the board.

Masala.  This guy sure looks live on paper.  Finished second to Take the Points last out and we saw what that one did shipping west on short notice and running second to the Pamplemousse in the Sham.   Todd Pletcher would appear to have another dangerous horse here. .  His speed figures are exciting and if this guy makes a nice appearance it might be worth considering him here.  It seems both of Pletcher’s ‘Lion Hearts’ are looking to take steps forward. The only trouble is….if we’re going to base his chances on the Take the Points angle, then it must be said that The Pamplemousse sort of beat that one for fun in the Sham.  I could go either way with this one.  He’s got a chance here.

Axel Foley.  The Officer colt has been chasing some of the better left coast horses lately in Chocolate Candy and Pioneer of the Nile.  He looks up against it here to me.  Shug knows how to get ‘em turned around though so an improved effort is certainly possible.

Mr. Fantasy is the first of the “big guns” here in post position order.  A win here will rocket the Kiaran McLaughlin trained colt onto many Derby lists.  He’s won big in each of his two starts and has devoured competition at the state-bred maiden and allowance levels.  He’s moving up in class, but could be the controlling speed.  If he’s the colt he’s looked like against lower levels of competition,  than this one could be over before it starts.  The whole question will be what happens with him up front early on.   My guess is this guy can handle the class test and will run well here.

Haynesfield is the talented Speightstown colt who seemingly gets no respect a la Rodney Dangerfield.  He’s at 5/1?  All he’s done is win 4 straight races including the Damon Runyon, the Count Fleet, and the Whirlaway.  What’s a guy gotta do?  The two knocks that have followed this guy wherever he has gone are that he should run into some distance limitations being a Speightstown colt and that he hasn’t really beaten anybody of name or record.  This is obviously his biggest test, so we stand to learn quite a bit about him.  I suspect he’ll take a bit of money at the windows as well, but with the jockey switch from Ramon Dominguez to Lopez, I think there’s reason to take a stand against him this weekend. 

Imperial Council.  Are you kidding me?  Watch how much buzz will surround this horse if he wins the Gotham.  He’s essentially improved in each of his 3 lifetime races and should absolutely love stretching out the added distance of the Gotham.  I like his foundation, and you’ve get a feeling that he could be the best of the Empire Maker contenders for the Derby.  He’s going to have to earn it though, and that will mean running down both Haynesfield and Mr. Fantasy.  I’ll be honest and repeat that he is my top selection here overall, but if the odds aren’t right there are reasons to consider taking a stand against him.  His workouts would suggest he’s ready to run a big one and this colt could well be in top form right now.  Eye him up in the post parade and decide how you feel about the odds.  And yes, Mike from NY, you know I can’t cover an Empire Maker without thinking of you, buddy. 

I Want Revenge is the x-factor horse here.  He ships in on short notice from California with hotshot jockey Joe Talamo aboard.  This is almost the exact reverse of what we saw with Take the Points heading west in the Sham last week, and the result might turn out to be the same.  I absolutely loved how this horse chased Pioneer of the Nile the last two races.  Visually they were impressive performance despite the lower speed figures.  Jeff Mullins wouldn’t ship him all the way out here if he didn’t think he had a big chance.  I’m just not sure I like him at 3/1.   I actually expected the odds on he and Haynesfield to be reversed and this will be interesting to see where horseplayers wind up.   As I often say, I definitely like the synthetic to dirt angle more than the other way around, and I prefer the west to east angle more so than vice versa.  I think he hits the board and must be given a chance here.  Here’s the intriguing thing with him.  If he does run big, and if he were to win here, how might folks feel differently about the odds of The Pamplemousse, Pioneer of the Nile, and perhaps Stardom Bound come the first Saturday in May? 

Giant Ryan….are you kidding me?  Pass.

I’m going to go down to the wire here on my choices, and odds will likely influence the final wagers.  I think Mr. Fantasy and Imperial Council are the top two in this field, but Haynesfield, I Want Revenge, and Masala could all pull it off as well.  It really just comes down to who you like the most.  Mr. Fantasy could well wind up being the play, but for now I’ll stick to my guns and select Imperial Council for the win. 

From a superfecta standpoint I think you can use Mr. Fantasy, Haynesfield, I Want Revenge, Masala, Russell Road, and Naos as underneath possibilities.   Without the benefit of the post parade I’d play Masala, Haynesfield, and Mr. Fantasy in place.  I’d toss in I Want Revenge, Rusell Road, and Naos for the bottom spots of the ticket. 

$.10 Superfecta:  7/3,5,6/1,2,3,5,6,8/1,2,3,5,6,8 ($6.00)

Best of luck to all.  If you’re crusing around the web this weekend, do stop over on our TBA homepage and pay a visit.  We always appreciate the traffic.


Comments : 5 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail


Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.