Quality Road deserves top ranking

29 03 2009

A horse, a horse, my kingdom for a horse!

Now that Quality Road has dispatched the heavily hyped Dunkirk, just where does the son of Elusive Quality belong in the rankings for the 2009 Kentucky Derby?  All the way at the top, if you ask me.  His gutsy performance to hold off the late charging Dunkirk in the stretch at Gulfstream Park has convinced me that this lightly raced colt will be a force to be reckoned with come the first Saturday in May. 

Quality Road finds another gear to hold off Dunkirk in the Florida Derby

Ranking the Derby contenders gets incredibly complex, if you allow it to be so, due to the different paths being taken by the various runners.  Without an opportunity to size them up in face-to-face competition, one is left using the non-scientific approach of interjecting much speculation into their analysis.   Even taking things as straightforward as final time comparisons cannot be considered truly “apples to apples” due to the differences in surface at each of the race tracks in question. 

So what are we to make of Quality Road?  How does he match up with the other big guns?   At some point you have to draw the line between hype and actual production.  It’s a blurred line and one that is constantly changing as the situation unfolds.  For example, I believe that right now you have to rank Friesan Fire and Quality Road above the other contenders.  They’ve finished their preps, and they’ve both done so in impressive style.  Just around the corner, however, we’ll get our best read on the contenders coming from California (in the Santa Anita Derby), and New York (In the Wood Memorial), so things are not set in stone at the top of the list.  

Let’s start by looking at the top 5:

  • #1 Quality Road
  • #2 Friesan Fire
  • #3 The Pamplemousse
  • #4 Pioneer of the Nile
  • #5  I Want Revenge

I don’t think there’s much variety out there in terms of who belongs in the top 5.  The argument seems to be  where these top 5 should be ranked in relation to one another.  Disregard the #1 and #2 rankings for a moment on Friesan Fire and Quality Road.  Truth be told I consider them to be dual #1 contenders.  Both colts used similar stalk and pounce approaches to cash in on their recent victories.  Friesan Fire had to run down the speedy Papa Clem early on, and then hold off late charges from Terrain and Giant Oak.   Many of the bigger named horses who gave the Louisiana Derby such a deep feel prior to the race (Flying Pegasus, Patena, etc.) simply did not fire for whatever reason, leaving Friesan Fire with a relatively easy victory once he reeled in Papa Clem.   Quality Road didn’t face a field quite as deep on paper, but the big names in the Florida Derby did show up to run, as he had to hold off the late charging Dunkirk in the stretch (as well as Theregoesjojo who ran well enough for show) after dispensing with longshot pacesetter Casey’s on Call.  The end result?  I think you’ve got to have these guys one, two.  Where you rank them amongst each other is open for debate, but for now I”ll give the slight edge to Quality Road, and continue to be disappointed that I could not select the horse in the Road to the Roses challenge.

Moving down the list, the next great debate is what to do with the California runners and I Want Revenge.  Obviously if I Want Revenge had remained in California, this would be easier to do from a direct comparison standpoint.  However, that would have left us completely unable to determine how these colts might run once they tried the dirt for the first time.  With the defections of Papa Clem and I Want Revenge and the subsequent success they’ve enjoyed, their would seem to be much promise for the colts currently leading the California Division;  The Pamplemousse and Pioneer of the Nile.  Until Pioneer of the Nile shows he can rundown The Grapefruit (which he very well might do in the upcoming Santa Anita Derby), I”ll continue to rank The Pamplemousse ahead of him.  With The Pamplemousse firmly entrenched at 3rd, that makes things simple for me as I can look at the next two and say “well, Pioneer of the Nile defeated I Want Revenge head to head, so he stays on top for now.”  Of course, it’s never quite that easy, and the 113 Beyer figure that I Want Revenge earned on dirt in the Gotham suggests he’s just as capable as Quality Road.  Here’s one last factor in stacking them as I have above.  Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse will square off face to face next weekend at Santa Anita, so we’ll get a much clearer read on how they match up.  I Want Revenge will face a challenge from some of the lower ranked contenders, and could be vulnerable if a runner like Imperial Council rises to the occasion. 

  • #6 Old Fashioned
  • #7 Imperial Council
  • #8 Dunkirk
  • #9  Chocolate Candy
  • #10 Win Willy

Things get a bit fuzzier once you’re outside of the top 5.   The first challenge is what to do with the falling stock of both Dunkirk and Old Fashioned.   Dunkirk in particular might not have enough earnings to even qualify for the Kentucky Derby, which basically makes his position on a Derby rankings list rather moot.  Let’s say he does find a way to draw into the field though.  Then what would we make of him?   Is he not good enough to merit consideration among the bigger guns?   We  must remember that the Florida Derby was this horse’s third race of his career.  There’s still a tremendous amount of room for improvement, and judging from the way this guy is bred and the fact that he’s only allowed one horse to finish in front of him so far (and did not go down without a fight), I think you’ve got to keep him around.  Ditto for Old Fashioned.  Larry Jones is simply too good a horseman for this guy to fall too far.  I’m convinced Friesan Fire is his best shot, but Old Fashioned has enough class in him to get past many in this year’s crop.  

Then you’ve got some room for “buzz” horses and longshots.  Imperial Council fits into that former category and now becomes the hype horse in the rankings.  He’ll get a shot to turn the tables on I Want Revenge in the Wood, and if he were to do so he’d have to be considered a top 5 contender in the Derby at least.  I’m still holding out hope that this guy could be the best of the Empire Maker colts this year (with all due respect to Pioneer of the Nile). 

Chocolate Candy is now the “Rodney Dangerfield” of this list.  Each week it’s someone different who gets no respect.  In CC’s case, I believe it’s because folks simply haven’t had many good looks at him..  All that will change next weekend with the Santa Anita Derby.   He needs to finish in the top 3 to warrant this ranking, but stop for a moment and consider what a shakeup it would be if he found a way to prevail?   I’m not saying that will happen, but what would the fallout be if it did?  The only thing I can find that he hasn’t done is to win a race recently. 

Lastly, there’s my longshot Win Willy, who I’m going to hold onto in this rankings until someone else forces me to remove him.   I’ll clue you in on another thought going through my mind right now that relates to this guy.  The Pamplemousse is a speedy type.  Friesan Fire, Quality Road, and even Old Fashioned like to be just off the pace anywhere from 2nd to 4th in the early running.  We just might have enough early zip up front that things could open up for a closer like this.  It might take some additional lights out speed signed up on the front end, but I’m just saying that a horse that isn’t on most people’s lists despite running a very visually impressive race to defeat the then top ranked Old Fashioned still warrants some consideration.  

So there you have it, for the moment at least.  In the spirit of the increasingly annoying Capital One credit card commercials:  “Who’s on your list? “


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pioneer of the Nile, Friesan Fire, horse racing, The Pamplemousse, Quality Road, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk

Gotham has many options

6 03 2009

You’ve got to love this time of year.  Here in the Mid Atlantic the weather has turned from an icy snow storm at the dawn of the week to a much needed spring preview with gorgeous 60° temperatures for the weekend.  Once again it’s time to go through the manly ritual of cleaning out the grill and preparing for prime barbecue season.  Ribs, chicken, steak, burgers.  “Meat and fire, baby!”  And nothing goes with a spring barbecue like a meaningful throughoughbred horse race, especially one that could tell us quite a bit about several hopefuls for the 2009 Kentucky Derby.  It’s Take Back Saturday time for sure.  Check that….it’s hyper Take Back Saturday!

The field for the 57th running of the $250,000 Gotham (Grade 3) @ Aqueduct (1 1/16 Miles):

Play along with Past Performances from the Road to the Roses fantasy challenge available here

  1. Naos (M. Luzzi/ T. Pletcher) 20/1
  2. Russell Road (T. Dunkelberger/J. Casey) 20/1
  3. Masala (E. Coa/T. PLetcher) 5/1
  4. Axel Foley (R. Migliore/K. McLaughlin) 15/1
  5. Mr. Fantasy (A. Garcia/K. McLaughlin) 7/2
  6. Haynesfield (C. Lopez/S. Asmussen) 5/1
  7. Imperial Council (R. Maragh/C. McGaughey) 5/2*
  8. I Want Revenge (J. Talamo/J. Mullins) 3/1
  9. Giant Ryan (J. Sanchez/B. Parboo) 50/1

Right away there is a major dilemma for me.  I fully expected Haynesfield to be the chalk favorite here, but apparently the hype surrounding Shug McGaughey’s colt Imperial Council has  reached deeper than I thought.  To be fully honest, I was planning on trying to beat Haynesfield with him.  Now I may have to look elsewhere if the odds hold.  Before we get into that though, let’s run through the horses a bit more thoroughly.

Naos breaks from the inside for trainer Todd Pletcher, who suddenly has a bevy of Derby contenders after appearing to start the year on a down note.  ‘Patient, grasshopper!”  He looks a bit outclassed here though to me.  That being said, take a look at the developmental cycle of the other Lion Heart colt in this race, Masala, and suddenly it’s not difficult to imagine a move forward on the speed figure scales on Saturday.  Trouble is, he’ll have to run by some pretty good horses in the stretch, which might be asking a bit much.  He seems to enjoy the added ground if his last effort at Philly Park is any indication.   Also have to like that he’s at least had some stakes experience.  I could see this horse having brighter days ahead of him.  I’m just not sold yet that Saturday will be one of them.   I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he hit the board though.

Russell Road warrants some mention in this field.  While he seems a class below the rest, there’s not much you can say against a horse who has won 6 consecutive races.  It’s just that those were sprinting further south in West Virginia and Maryland and this is a tough field to face stretching out over a mile for the first time in his career.  He has seemed to run his best races when going the tricky 7 furlong distance.   Still, it looks like he’d need to run the race of his life to win this.  He’s another you’ve got to respect with a chance to hit the board.

Masala.  This guy sure looks live on paper.  Finished second to Take the Points last out and we saw what that one did shipping west on short notice and running second to the Pamplemousse in the Sham.   Todd Pletcher would appear to have another dangerous horse here. .  His speed figures are exciting and if this guy makes a nice appearance it might be worth considering him here.  It seems both of Pletcher’s ‘Lion Hearts’ are looking to take steps forward. The only trouble is….if we’re going to base his chances on the Take the Points angle, then it must be said that The Pamplemousse sort of beat that one for fun in the Sham.  I could go either way with this one.  He’s got a chance here.

Axel Foley.  The Officer colt has been chasing some of the better left coast horses lately in Chocolate Candy and Pioneer of the Nile.  He looks up against it here to me.  Shug knows how to get ‘em turned around though so an improved effort is certainly possible.

Mr. Fantasy is the first of the “big guns” here in post position order.  A win here will rocket the Kiaran McLaughlin trained colt onto many Derby lists.  He’s won big in each of his two starts and has devoured competition at the state-bred maiden and allowance levels.  He’s moving up in class, but could be the controlling speed.  If he’s the colt he’s looked like against lower levels of competition,  than this one could be over before it starts.  The whole question will be what happens with him up front early on.   My guess is this guy can handle the class test and will run well here.

Haynesfield is the talented Speightstown colt who seemingly gets no respect a la Rodney Dangerfield.  He’s at 5/1?  All he’s done is win 4 straight races including the Damon Runyon, the Count Fleet, and the Whirlaway.  What’s a guy gotta do?  The two knocks that have followed this guy wherever he has gone are that he should run into some distance limitations being a Speightstown colt and that he hasn’t really beaten anybody of name or record.  This is obviously his biggest test, so we stand to learn quite a bit about him.  I suspect he’ll take a bit of money at the windows as well, but with the jockey switch from Ramon Dominguez to Lopez, I think there’s reason to take a stand against him this weekend. 

Imperial Council.  Are you kidding me?  Watch how much buzz will surround this horse if he wins the Gotham.  He’s essentially improved in each of his 3 lifetime races and should absolutely love stretching out the added distance of the Gotham.  I like his foundation, and you’ve get a feeling that he could be the best of the Empire Maker contenders for the Derby.  He’s going to have to earn it though, and that will mean running down both Haynesfield and Mr. Fantasy.  I’ll be honest and repeat that he is my top selection here overall, but if the odds aren’t right there are reasons to consider taking a stand against him.  His workouts would suggest he’s ready to run a big one and this colt could well be in top form right now.  Eye him up in the post parade and decide how you feel about the odds.  And yes, Mike from NY, you know I can’t cover an Empire Maker without thinking of you, buddy. 

I Want Revenge is the x-factor horse here.  He ships in on short notice from California with hotshot jockey Joe Talamo aboard.  This is almost the exact reverse of what we saw with Take the Points heading west in the Sham last week, and the result might turn out to be the same.  I absolutely loved how this horse chased Pioneer of the Nile the last two races.  Visually they were impressive performance despite the lower speed figures.  Jeff Mullins wouldn’t ship him all the way out here if he didn’t think he had a big chance.  I’m just not sure I like him at 3/1.   I actually expected the odds on he and Haynesfield to be reversed and this will be interesting to see where horseplayers wind up.   As I often say, I definitely like the synthetic to dirt angle more than the other way around, and I prefer the west to east angle more so than vice versa.  I think he hits the board and must be given a chance here.  Here’s the intriguing thing with him.  If he does run big, and if he were to win here, how might folks feel differently about the odds of The Pamplemousse, Pioneer of the Nile, and perhaps Stardom Bound come the first Saturday in May? 

Giant Ryan….are you kidding me?  Pass.

I’m going to go down to the wire here on my choices, and odds will likely influence the final wagers.  I think Mr. Fantasy and Imperial Council are the top two in this field, but Haynesfield, I Want Revenge, and Masala could all pull it off as well.  It really just comes down to who you like the most.  Mr. Fantasy could well wind up being the play, but for now I’ll stick to my guns and select Imperial Council for the win. 

From a superfecta standpoint I think you can use Mr. Fantasy, Haynesfield, I Want Revenge, Masala, Russell Road, and Naos as underneath possibilities.   Without the benefit of the post parade I’d play Masala, Haynesfield, and Mr. Fantasy in place.  I’d toss in I Want Revenge, Rusell Road, and Naos for the bottom spots of the ticket. 

$.10 Superfecta:  7/3,5,6/1,2,3,5,6,8/1,2,3,5,6,8 ($6.00)

Best of luck to all.  If you’re crusing around the web this weekend, do stop over on our TBA homepage and pay a visit.  We always appreciate the traffic.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail

Dunkirk and Imperial Council generating some buzz

22 02 2009

It’s nothing new, really.  Whereas in days of yore the only way a colt surged forward along the road to the Kentucky Derby was with a solid foundation as a 2 year-old and a campaign of steady, distance increasing races as an early 3-year-old, the trend lately has been for instant sensations.  We saw this last year with Big Brown (although technically he had raced as a 2-year-old, albeit briefly), and we saw this 2 years-ago with Curlin.  Could it be happening once again? 

Two colts have garnered a great deal of attention since winning impressively at the Allowance level in the last few weeks as they attempt to earn there way into the starting field of the 2009 Kentucky Derby the first Saturday in May.  Dunkirk and Imperial Council have made many take notice and now have folks questioning whether they will be able to shake up the prep fields they are pointed towards.

Both horses (Dunkirk and Imperial Council) have martial sounding names, which is an added bonus for a military history buff like me.  As Dunkirk was historically the savior of the British Expeditionary Force (BEF) in the dark days of early World War 2, might Dunkirk the colt be the savior of perennial Triple Crown hopeful Todd Pletcher?   Typically Pletcher has any number of runners pointing for the roses, but this year his stable didn’t seem to have as many legit contenders.  Then, out of seemingly nowhere, WHAM – here’s Dunkirk.  I’m reminded of the film “A Bridge Too Far” where Michael Caine’s character (in charge of the British armored XXX Corps) discusses the positives of arriving just in time, like the cavalry showing up in the nick of time, rather than earlier than expected.  “On Shed-dule” is how he puts it.  Yes indeed – it would appear Dunkirk hath arrived “on shed-dule” for Todd Pletcher.

Dunkirk throttles the field in his Allowance victory at Gulfstream Park 2/19/09.

Dunkirk’s allowance victory at Gulfstream Park on 2/19 added yet another grey colt to the equation for the Kentucky Derby.   The $3.7 million purchase has a solid pedigree being sired by Unbridled’s Song and out of the  Kentucky Oaks winning mare Secret Status.   He’s trained by Todd Pletcher and was piloted by Garrett Gomez during his allowance romp.  It remains to be seen if Gomez will retain the mount next out in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on 3/28/09, or if jockey Edgar Prado will take the mount.  Prado happened to be on a rival horse for trainer Rick Dutrow during Dunkirk’s recent victory. 

Looking at the run, I thought it was visually impressive.  He takes some time to get going, but once he does he puts away the competition with the class expected of a horse who will be a Grade 1 contender.  The knock on him will be that he is lightly raced (I’ll always think of Curlin when I hear that), and that he lacks the “foundation”  that racing as a 2-year-old has seemingly provided in the past.  If you ask me though, the times are clearly changing.  If he shows up and pulls a Big Brown in the Florida Derby, this will be your Derby horse.  If he doesn’t, well than it’s back to the drawing board.  Just to keep things honest though, it’s wise to remember that the field in his allowance victory was questionable (I’m honestly not familiar with any of them at this point in time), and the final time of 1:50.15, while good, could be improved upon.  Of course, if you’ve only got 2 races under your belt, the sky’s the limit, right?   The best thing I like about this guy?  He’s not a front runner, and he seems likely to be able to relax until the real running begins. 

Imperial Council wins Gulfstream allowance on 2/14/09

The other colt that is generating a healthy dose of buzz is Imperial Council.  The lightly raced Empire Maker colt (huge hat tip to Mike from Horse Racing Free Picks who is by far the biggest fan of Empire Maker offspring I know…so much so that whenever I think of them I instantly connect them with him) turned in a whopper as well last week when he blazed through allowance competition at Gulfstream.  He’s now pointing to the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on 3/7/09 where he’ll face off against Haynesfield, Mr. Fantasy, and possibly Danger to Society.  Trainer Shug McGaughey is quoted in bloodhorse as wanting to move the colt north so that he can continue to stretch him out distance wise, as opposed to facing off in the condensed 1-mile distance of Fountain of Youth. 

My gut tells me that while sending him up to New York is definitely the right thing to do to determine if he’s a legitimate Derby contender, I have a feeling the major NY preps are going to be a lot more wide open this year than they have in recent memory.  In addition to the horses mentioned above, we’ll also get I Want Revenge moving from synthetics to dirt (every handicappers least favorite angle to consider) as he ships east for the Gotham.  Personally, I’m thinking Mr. Fantasy has a good a shot as any to come out of the Gotham on top, but we’ll see how this plays out.  If Imperial Council continues to progress, which he should, and manages to take the Gotham, he’d be a very intriguing contender for the run for the roses on the first Saturday in May.

One thing is certain, it’s way too soon to have any finalized opinions yet.  Hold onto your horses folks, it looks like we’ve got a wild ride to the Derby.


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail


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