Preakness Selections

14 05 2010

The Woodland Vase - trophy of the Preakness Stakes

Preakness 135 – the day is FINALLY upon us.  After a fairly brutal afternoon at Pimlico on Friday (due to the heat, my lousy selections, and of course the spill in the Black Eyed Susan) – it’s time to make amends and “get our Preak on” with the selections.  As a much more learned man than I once opined (the great Master of Ceremonies himself – Hammer): It’s time to turn this mutha out!

We’ll focus on the major stakes races on the day, starting with the 6th (The Chick Lang Stakes).  You’re on your own for the early races – which I generally don’t do that well on anyway.  Overall, I’ll say that I though Friday was a much better day to play “beat the favorite” and that several of the favorites on Saturday’s card look more formidable – which of course means the exact opposite will probably happen, so wager accordingly!

Race 6 – Grade 3 Chick Lang Stakes – 6 Furlongs

The race named for the legendary “Mr. Preakness” himself, the late, great Chick Lang kicks off the major racing action for the day.  It’s not a very big field, so expect this to be a rather bland wagering opportunity.

  • #3 Comedero (7/5) – Worthy favorite is 6 for 6 sprinting.  His only loss came trying to go 1 Mile back in December. Respect.
  • #4 Quiet Invader (5/2) – Top challenger defeated Hurricane Ike last out.  If not for a freak injury earlier this week, Hurricane Ike would’ve been a popular betting interest in the Preakness.
  • #5 Latigo Shore (5/1) – Son of Malibu Moon has been steadied twice in 3 lifetime races.  His only clean trip he won for fun against Maidens.  Expect improvement.

 

Race 7 – The James W. Murphy Stakes – 1 Mile (Turf)
The JW Murphy came up a fairly tough race to decipher. Several contenders are making their first turf start – so quite literally anything can (and likely will) happen. I focused on those with turf experience, though the “dirt” horses are bound to offer better value on the tote board.

  • #11 Thunder Brew (5/1) – Exits back to back scores against softer competition.  Is also 2 for 2 at the mile distance.
  • #1 Cat Park (4/1) – Part of coupled entry for trainer Graham Motion that also includes #1A Vamos a Ver.  Was dusted by Paddy O’Prado and Dean’s Kitten 2 races back.  On his best stuff he makes sense here.
  • #2 Beau Choix (5/1) – No excuse for getting “caught” in last race.  Working like he wants to make amends.

 

Race 8 – Grade 3 William Donald Schaefer Stakes – 1 1/16 Miles
I joke that this race was almost changed to the Sheila Dixon stakes.  It’s a Baltimore thing.

  • #7 Blame (8/5) – Makes first start of 2010 campaign, but could be sitting on a big race.
  • #3 Understatement (2/1) – The most accomplished of the early-speed types in this race.  Seems to excel at this distance – though those wins all came at Aqueduct.
  • #1 Bullsbay (10/1) – May have lost a step, but he should get a solid pace to run at.  Never count a son of Tiznow out of any fight.

 

Race 9 – Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
I counted 5 runners here that I thought had a decent shot to win.  In addition to the selections listed below, #5 Quiet Meadow (10/1) and #2 Love’s Blush (20/1) warrant some attention as well in my opinion.  That being said, I’m a fairly big Rainbow View fan.  I’m fond of the filly – and hope she shows up with her best stuff.  I don’t think she’s a lock though by any stretch of the imagination.

  • #4 Rainbow View (1/1) – Classy filly has run respectably against the likes of Goldikova and Sariska.  Should improve on 2nd start of most recent form cycle.
  • #8 Shared Account (6/1) – Cuts back in distance where her early speed running style could set her up nicely.
  • #7 Denomination (10/1) – Smart Strike filly may finally be figuring out U.S. turf racing.

 

Race 10 – Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap – 6 Furlongs
Looks like another tough renewal of the MD Sprint.  The race seems wide open as just about the entire field is capable on their best stuff.  Beyond the listed selections,#11 Half Metal Jacket is another I’d give serious consideration despite the outside post draw.  The 11 hole seemed to do quite well on Friday.  That probably had more to do with the horses than the post, but suffice to say you might not want to automatically toss the outside runners.

  • #1 Snapshot (3/1) Thought the son of Awesome Again rated the best shot in this field.  The horses who have beaten him lately (Warrior’s Reward and Custom for Carlos) are pretty tough customers.
  • #3 Roaring Lion (6/1) – I don’t know that he absolutely needs the lead, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt.
  • #7 Ravalo (5/1) – Should appreciate return to dirt surface after pedestrian effort on synthetics.

 

Race 11 – The Grade 2 Dixie – 1 1/8 Miles – Turf
Over the years, this race has been my nemesis.  I’m captured in a Cindy Pierson Dulay photo of the 2008 renewal as longshot Pays to Dream crossed the line and knocked me out of a Pick 6 wager that was singled on Big Brown in the Preakness.  Thus, it comes as no surprise that I think 6 of the 13 horses in this field (nearly 50%) are threats to win the race and will be spreading DEEP here on the exotics.  Outside of the picks listed below, I’ll also be thinking about #9 Rahystrada (6/1), #6 Picou (10/1), and #5 Forgotten Dynasty (10/1).

  • #4 Just As Well (3/1) – I went “Captain Obvious” with the top selection as I thought this son of A.P. Indy might be the best horse in the field.   He hasn’t won since last July, but he’s faced the likes of Vodka, Champs Elysees, and Gio Ponti in that stretch.  He should find this field easier – with “should” being the operative term.
  • #2 Grassy (5/1) – A very well regarded son of El Prado (same sire as Paddy O’Prado) that just missed last out.  Could be ready to improve in 2nd start this year.
  • #13 Nicanor (8/1) – Forget those Preakness connections with Grassy I just mentioned…this here is Barbaro’s little brother!  He’s got some speed too, which he’ll likely have to flash from the 13 hole.  Even so he may need some angels on his withers when they enter deep stretch – but what a story it would be if pulled it off?

 

Race 12 – The 135th Preakness Stakes – 1 3/16 Miles
Here we go folks, the reason we are all here.  Will Super Saver march on to the Belmont with a pair of Triple Crown jewels in his pocket or will a rival jump up and snatch victory from Calvin Borel at the wire the way Curlin did in 2007?  We’ve already posted an initial “get to know the Preakness contenders” bit, so I’ll spare you the full field rundown.

Ultimately, I think 4 horses make logical win contenders here.  Obviously there’s Super Saver – that’s a no brainer.   Lookin at Lucky “should” get a better trip and has a chance to be right there at the wire.  Paddy O’Prado would be no surprise either – and by all accounts he’s looked well since arriving (just as he did at Churchill Downs 2 weeks ago).  Lastly, there’s Caracortado – who is becoming the “wiseguy’ horse of this Preakness.

As for the rest of the field, while conventional wisdom maintains that you focus only on horses that have run in the Kentucky Derby when searching for a Preakness winner (the only exceptions in recent memory being Rachel Alexandra in 2009, Bernardini in 2006, and Red Bullet in 2000), you might be interested to know how many times in the 13 renewals of the Preakness since 1997 in which a horse that did NOT run in the Kentucky Derby has finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd.  Check out page 7 of Derek Simon’s Preakness Betting Guide for what I feel is a telling illustration. If you’re looking for value horses to fill out the Exacta and Trifecta – be not afraid – recent history is on your side!

Caracortado would seem to be the logical “non-Derby starter” of this bunch to hit the board – but I’ll be honest and admit that I’m also keeping an eye on the odds for Yawanna Twist as well. Just a hunch – nothing more.  If anyone’s going to play the role of Macho Again from 2008 (the longshot who lit up the tote board under obvious favorite Big Brown), my gut says Yawanna Twist might be the one.

  • #8 Super Saver (5/2) – The Derby winner’s race to lose.   Has the tactical speed to prevail from either the lead or just off the early pace.
  • #7 Lookin at Lucky (3/1) – The time is now if he’s ever going to have his day.
  • #10 Paddy O’Prado (9/2) – Should be right next to Super Saver every step of the way. If the Derby winner gets beat, this horse will likely have a great deal to do with it.
  • #9 Caracortado (10/1) – “Scarface” has plenty of buzz around him.  Apparently he figures “another furlong, they’ll love me again.”
  • #5 Yawanna Twist (30/1) – My longshot bomber.  Light it up, baby.  Light up that tote board.  Evacuate the grandstand – we’re twisting on the dance floor!

Well folks – by the time this one goes official, the whole weekend will be a historical footnote.  Another memory quickly stuffed away and brought back only as a reference point for a particular story, or to illustrate a particular point.  Hopefully you’ve enjoyed yourself and spent some time living in the moment – and hopefully you’ve cashed a healthy amount of wagers along the way.

Now, readers, march away: and how thou pleasest, Preakness Gods, dispose the day!


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Triple Crown Coverage, Pimlico, Preakness, Triple Crown, horse racing, Lookin at Lucky, Super Saver, Paddy O'Prado, Caracortado

Derby Rankings – An Exercise in Futility

22 02 2010

If the previous week has taught us anything, it’s that attempting to rank the prospects for the 2010 Kentucky Derby is a largely futile act that is rife with subjection, beset by imperfections, and of course a lightning rod for controversy.  Headed into the weekend, most folks (including yours truly) had Buddy’s Saint ranked in the top 3 on their Derby watch lists.  All that changed on Saturday following a hellacious trip in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park.

So where do we stand now?  Well, there is no definitively correct answer.  What follows is most certainly not an attempt to predict who may eventually outmaneuver each other in jockeying for a starting spot in the Derby, nor a reflection on the actual overall talent of the horses in question.  Doubtless, this list will continue to move wildly all over the place from week to week, with venerable favorites dropping like 10,000 pound rocks, and virtual unknowns rising to the top like some UFO shaped balloon purportedly piloted by young Falcon Heene.

In other words, it’s just my humble opinion – and only serves as a snapshot of this moment in time.  Indeed, my opinion on some of these runners changes from moment to moment. I’m willing to bet a good number of these horses don’t even get to so much as sniff the Kentucky air the first Saturday in May.  Probably the only authors out there who can pull off the “Derby watch list trick” with any real acumen are Steve Haskin and his “Derby Dozen” over on Bloodhorse, and Ron Correll over at TrackSideView.  With that said, let’s get on with the show, shall we?

1. ESKENDEREYA

Todd Pletcher’s runner moves into poll position for the moment based off his strong effort in the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes on 2/20.  Personally, I still have plenty of concerns about his more forwardly placed running style, as well as the way the Fountain of Youth essentially fell into his lap with the way Buddy’s Saint was handled, but there’s no denying that was a very good effort over the likes of such highly touted competitors as the aforementioned favorite (Buddy’s Saint), Aikenite, Pulsion, and Jackson Bend.  I’m not sure if any of the other runners in that field have legitimate shots at becoming Derby contenders, but this son of Giant’s Causeway did what he needed to do to move forward off of his Allowance level victory last out.   Whenever a horse shows improvement like that at a lower level, and then comes back and proves they can run to that same level against better – it tells me he’s a serious race horse.  I cannot see myself keeping this guy on top of this list for long as there’s now way I’d bet him if the Derby were tomorrow, but for now I’ll give him a tepid nod for the top spot.  Admittedly, I’m probably drinking the “what have you done for me lately” kool-aid here.

2. ODYSSEUS

You may have missed him if you blinked this past week.  That’s largely because he wasn’t running in the more highly heralded major prep races on Saturday.  Nope, instead, pulling his own Boise St. routine, Odysseus romped on a Wednesday afternoon over Allowance runners at Tampa Bay.  I know – that’s not exactly a hotbed for sudden Derby sensations to come stomping out of, but there’s something special about this guy.  He’s bred magnificently, and I love the way he dispatched winners the first time out so confidently.  If you remember what Curlin first looked like to you watching the replay of the Rebel in 2007, or the way Big Brown looked in his 2008 debut, I think there may be a little bit of that going on here.  We’ll obviously learn a lot more about this colt next out as he’s going to have to pick up some graded stakes earnings.  Is he a contender or a pretender?  For now, I’m sticking with contender and jumping squarely on the bandwagon.  I’ll say this for certain:  The entire 2010 Triple Crown season will be infinitely more “epic” if a horse named Odysseus is around.

3. DISCREETLY MINE

Another prep race, another Todd Pletcher trained winner.  The son of Mineshaft had never been over a mile before, but proved on Saturday in the G2 Risen Star that he could handle 8.5 furlongs with relative ease.  He’s another in Pletcher’s barn that has found himself setting the pace recently, and the world waits with bated breath to ensure these horses can eventually show signs of being able to win from coming off the pace.  I think of this horse as an x-factor, as folks seem to either be enormously high on him, or enormously critical.  I’m ranking him this high because I thought he was up against it taking on Drosselmeyer, Tempted to Tapit, and Ron the Greek – 3 horses that were being highly touted by folks whispering about possible Derby contenders.  None of them had anything for Discreetly Mine, who was never in doubt for a single step of the way.  Now, does he want to go 10 furlongs?  I’m not sure.  Pletcher probably considers Eskendereya and Rule his 1, 2 punches at the moment, but Discreetly Mine isn’t a bad plan-C to have around.

4.  RULE

Man, are we ever going to get away from Todd Pletcher’s runner?   This is absolute insanity.  Three of the top Four spots?  I think the most obvious observation is that these can’t possibly remain the way they are for long.  Rule  ran away with the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay earlier in the month.  Pletcher immediately commented that a Grade 1 race would be next (take your guess at which though).  Either way, he’s likely to run into tougher competition, including perhaps a stablemate or two.  I’m still not entirely sold that this is a top notch Derby horse, but based on his performance in the Sam F. Davis, he deserves to be ranked highly for now.

5.  LOOKIN AT LUCKY

I’d rank him a lot higher if I had any idea how he’d perform on dirt.  I know he’s impressive, and I know he’s very highly regarded, especially by our friends on the west coast that have had a chance to see him in person, but I can’t help but remember that  he lost in his own backyard to Vale of York in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  Baffert has mentioned he thinks Lucky will do well on dirt, and we must remember that several horses (I Want Revenge, Papa Clem, etc.) showed marked improvement coming east and taking the synthetic-to-dirt approach last year.   Another thing working in Lucky’s favor – this could be the year that the California 3-year-old crop is markedly better than its east coast rival.  In years past I’ve been a bit too high on the CA crop – maybe this year is the one not to be too critical?  I still want to see one dirt performance before making a final decision.

6.  VALE OF YORK

Arguably the hardest horse to keep on this list, despite the fact that he’s the reigning 2-year-old champion of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  He’s been in Dubai and is now headed to Europe and may not even make it to the Derby, but his exploits as a 2-year-old suggest he deserves to at least be a part of the discussion at the Derby table.  You’re going to have to keep your eye on him if you are following along, as you aren’t likely to hear a whole lot about him.  In fact, I’m almost certain that within a month it will be impossible to continue to rank him here, but until someone else impresses me equally, he’s here.  Being totally transparent, I will say that cashing a win bet at greater than 30/1 on Breeders’ Cup weekend on Vale of York definitely earned a soft spot in my heart for this son of Invincible Spirit.

7.  CARACORTADO

How can you not love a horse that is named for Al Pacino’s infamous Tony Montana character in the film Scarface?  ”Say hello to my lil’ friend!”  I’ve yet to see this guy race live, but many feel he’s going to give Lucky more than a handful if they both stay in California and take the Santa Anita Derby path to Churchill Downs.  A son of Cat Dreams, all he does is win over the synthetics.  He made short work of two highly touted Derby hopefuls in American Lion and Tiz Chrome (neither of whom looked particularly impressive) in the Robert Lewis.

8. JACKSON BEND

Stays on this list despite being dropped from many such lists across the country.  I just couldn’t knock the guy following 2 game efforts for place in the G3 Holy Bull (behind the now-injured Winslow Homer) and the G2 Fountain of Youth (behind current top dog Eskendereya).  So much for the knock that he was just a slightly above average Calder horse, or so it would appear.  The son of Hear no Evil rides for the Nick Zito barn, and has been either first or second in all 8 lifetime races.  We can say one thing with certainty: he has a knack for factoring into the exacta.

9. SIDNEY’S CANDY

Most folks remember 2009 as a solid season for the offspring of Candy Ride, most notably with Kentucky Derby hopeful Chocolate Candy.  Sidney’s Candy is yet another of the impressive looking Candy Ride line, and this one comes with a ton more speed than Chocolate Candy ever had.  I’ll be honest – this is an aggressive ranking – and a spot I seriously considered sticking instead with either Buddy’s Saint or Ron the Greek.   What has me sold on Sidney is potential.  He dropped jaws with his win in the San Vicente, and according to Ron Correll at Tracksideview, may be headed to the Gotham stakes next.  Could be any kind of horse.

10. BLIND LUCK

Just a few years ago, people would’ve scoffed at the notion of including a filly in a top 10 list for the Kentucky Derby.  Thanks to the recent exploits of fillies like Eight Belles, Rags to Riches, and of course Rachel Alexandra, such critics have been largely silenced.  Let’s be frank here (“stop calling me Shirley!!!”), in all likelihood she’s going to stay against 3-year-old fillies and will not face a colt the entire season.  At this point in time there’s absolutely no reason to suspect that her connections will even contemplate a run against 19 colts in the Kentucky Derby, and I can’t say I blame them for those sentiments.  I’ll admit that I’m holding out hope that she “pulls a Rachel” and winds up in Baltimore for the Preakness, but even that is probably wishful thinking at best.  I will say this – the colts rank higher than her on this list do not scare me enough to think she doesn’t still belong in the discussion.  Based on talent alone, if news were to drop tomorrow that her connections were thinking of the Derby, she’d move up several places on this list and become a serious contender.   Before you laugh, just remember that I said the same thing at this point in time last year about Rachel Alexandra, and the same thing in 2008 about Eight Belles and Pure Clan.

OTHER NOTABLES

Obviously you can’t rank everyone on your list.  I still think RON THE GREEK is a horse to keep an eye on.  He didn’t get much pace to run at  in the Risen Star and that probably cost him.  I’m also pretty high on DUBLIN (who gave a solid account of himself in the Southwest) and DAVE IN DIXIE, who is another that appears could be any kind of horse and is one to keep an eye on.  I’m going to make BUDDY”S SAINT and horses like SUPER SAVER show me something before they are brought back into the discussion.

Supremely disappointing this week?  DROSSELMEYER – where the heck was he in the Risen Star?  He seemed to be a consensus top 10 horse wherever you looked.  Huge disappointment.  I’m giving BUDDY”S SAINT some mercy here but not delving deeper into his debacle, but suffice to say that the whole trip was a nightmare.

So that’s where I stand for the moment.  What about you guys?


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail

Road to the Roses 2010

15 02 2010
It’s that time of year again, racing fans.  Next weekend, the first scoring races for the 2010 Road to the Roses fantasy challenge are set to kick off – which means you’d better get those stables filled out and registered now if you want to take part.  For racing fans, this is usually the most highly anticipated of fantasy contests on the year, generating quite a bit of buzz (including a Facebook group that boasts over 2900 “fans” – quite a feat considering only 380 folks on all of Facebook show up under a search for “horse racing” – meaning it must not be a popular interest that people have listed).
……………………..
Two leagues that I’m a part of would welcome your participation, if you haven’t registered already.  One is for the TBA group I proudly blog with.  The other is from our good friend Tencentcielo over on the TVG Community.  To get started, here’s the Brisnet PPs for Kentucky Derby Future Wagers Pool.

To access one of the leagues, just fill out your stable horses, jockeys, and trainers and then once you confirm your stable you’ll be asked if you wish to join an existing league.  Just type in the League ID and the Activation Code for the league as noted below.

Any user can create up to 3 free stables to participate in the contest.  The top overall prizes are always fairly sweet, including a trip to the Derby and a future wager.

  • TBA 2010
    • League ID: 3173203388
    • Activation Code: 2247553444
  • A Dime on the Ten
    • League ID: 2071312789
    • Activation Code: 1205335816

We’d certainly love to have more folks in those leagues to make things interesting, so give it a whirl and pass that information along to anyone you think may be interested.

For now, I think it’s safe to assume that volatility will be the order of the day.  To be sure, just a few day ago horses such as American Lion, Tiz Chrome, Lookin at Lucky, and UpTownCharlyBrown were receiving strong inclusion consideration.  I still think any of those can go on to be fine horses, but I sided against Lucky due to the synthetics question, and then passed on the Tiznows (which I KNOW will come back to haunt me) based on their most recent efforts.

Every year it seems like there’s more and more folks coming along who are first time players with some interest in getting involved in the challenge.  For them, I’ve included a breakdown of who I chose and why below.  Of course, it’s also for you more seasoned players, so that I can be reminded of my follies all season long.  A little humility is always good – especially for horseplayers.  Admittedly, I went with my heart on a few of these, but without further adieu, let’s get to the list, shall we?

Horses:

  • Buddy’s Saint – consensus top three Derby candidate, but questions about over who he’s faced are starting to be raised.  Has won going 9 furlongs on the dirt in the Grade 2 Remsen.  That counts for something.
  • Vale of York - my current #1 3-year-old colt in training.  Even though he’ll train overseas and may not run in any races that qualify for the challenge, I couldn’t leave him off the list.  He made an impression on me in the paddock for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and when I cashed on him at better than 30/1 a few moments later, suffice to say a soft spot grew in my heart for this son of Invincible Spirit.
  • Blind Luck - seems every year around this time I fall for a filly.  In 2008 it was Eight Belles and Pure Clan.  In 2009 it was Rachel Alexandra.  In all likelihood she will continue to point for the Kentucky Oaks rather than the Derby, but based on what we’ve seen so far, I think she deserves a place at the table based on potential alone.  She may be closer to Stardom Bound in terms of ceiling than Rachel Alexandra, but have we really seen any colts that would scare you away at this point?
  • Ron the Greek – I have to admit, I don’t think I gave this son of Full Mandate enough credit when he first won the Lecomte (G3) over Maximus Ruler.  He’d seem to need a pace in front of him for his prep and Derby chances, but so far that doesn’t seem to be something this crop is lacking.  In fact, so far Ron’s one of the few that looks authoritative coming from off the pace.  I would caution that Giacomo style dead closers don’t usually win the Derby, but in recent memory we do have Mine that Bird and Street Sense doing exactly that.  I’ll roll the dice.
  • William’s Kitten – Some folks may be deceived by the buzz surrounding this horse.  He’s speed figures don’t leap off the page, but if you appreciate a slow, steady, progression of races to build a foundation – the way trainers did in the not-so-long-ago, he begins to make a lot of sense.  Think on this, he’s run very well against Super Saver, Winslow Homer, Jackson Bend, and that 8th place finish in the BC Juvenile to Vale of York, Lookin at Lucky, and Noble’s Promise was better than you might think.  I think he’s a serious race horse.
  • Rule - probably the trendiest of my inclusions.  Pletcher has himself a horse with some speed in this son of Roman Ruler, and word is he’s headed for a Grade 1 next.  Considering how few opportunities one gets to score points in a Grade 1 during the contest, it’s nice to have a runner pointing for such a race.
  • Tempted to Tapit – Impressive 11 length winner last out took 4 starts to break his maiden and was beaten by another under consideration for this spot, Laus Deo.  Took the kind of explosive move forward last out that you want to see this time of year.  Still has many questions to answer though (distance, can he avoid a bounce, etc.).
  • Drosselmeyer – Another who took a significant step forward last out, and this time it was against winners for the first time, an accomplishment that suggests he’s got what it takes.  The son of Distorted Humor went 9 furlongs in 1:49 and 2 at the Allowance level on January 31st at Gulfstream Park; and he did it rating off the pace.  Looks like a very live contender to me.
  • Jackson Bend –   Took 4 consecutive ungraded stakes at Calder before finishing 2nd to Winslow Homer in the Holy Bull.  Could just be  a nondescript Calder horse, but there is something about him that I like, and that’s been amplified by the switch to the Nick Zito barn.
  • Setsuko - I’ll be honest, this horse was nowhere on my radar until TVG’s Matt Carothers mentioned him the other day.  Additionally Brad Free of the Daily Racing Form has mentioned this horse as one to keep an eye on.  He basically wasn’t anything until Richard Mandella put blinkers on him, and now he’s sort of a dark horse for the CA circuit.  Definitely a reach, but this was my final spot.

To fill out my stable, I selected Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher as my trainers, as each seems loaded this year with possibilities, and settled on Julien Leparoux and Garrett Gomez for my jockeys.  I know Go-Go burned me a bit last year by not accruing a ton of points, but he’s too consistently good a rider to avoid in my opinion.

So who scares me?   Well, it’s always dangerous to leave Lookin at Lucky off the list.  Same goes for runners like Eskendereya and Super Saver.  You know it pains me to leave the Tiznows off the list (American Lion and Tiz Chrome), but none of these horses has me worried that much.

The runners I’ll be losing sleep over not including are Laus Deo (nice looking Medaglia d’Oro colt), D’funnybone (who has really only turned in one bad race in the “synthetic Juvenile” last fall, and even then was a very good looking colt until about mid stretch), and any of the Afleet Alex offspring out there who look potentially promising.

The good news?  The first “supplemental draft” is slated for March 15 (with another coming on 4/12), so if I’ve whiffed on a Derby runner there will be two chances to make amends.

Speaking of which – I’ll go on record as saying I still don’t think we’ve seen a Derby winning caliber performance from any of these horses.  The whole thing is still wide open if someone wants to jump up and grab victory.

So what are you waiting for – download those past performances and get to handicapping!  It’s time to get serious about the 2010 Kentucky Derby prep races!

We’ll be back this weekend with previews of the Hutcheson, Risen Star, and Fountain of Youth.


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Categories : Fantasy Horse Racing, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail

Winslow Homer outruns Jackson Bend to win the Holy Bull

24 01 2010

The Kentucky Derby prep season got underway with a bang on Saturday as Fox Hill Farms’ 3-year-old Winslow Homer staged a mild upset in the $150,000 Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. Bet down from his morning line odds of 6/1, the son of Unbridled’s Song split horses in the stretch to power his way home in front of the favorite, Jackson Bend, who was coming off a 5 race winning streak.

Right out of the gate, several horses shot to the front to challenge the early goings, including Piscitelli (who had shown this style last out in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile), Litigation Risk, and Homeboykris.

It was Homeboykris who ultimately had the lead at the opening quarter mark in :23.86, with Thank You Philippe having motored on up to a close 2nd from his position along the rail.

At this point, both Jackson Bend and Winslow Homer were in stalking position, with Winslow Homer getting a slightly easier ride just off the pace pressers.

As the field turned for home, Ramon Dominguez finally asked Winslow Homer for his run, and the colt responded by splitting Homeboykris and Thank You Philippe , emerging from the pack ahead of Jackson Bend.  By the sixteenth poll it was a two-horse race, but Winslow Homer would not be denied, hitting the wire 3/4 of a length in front of Jackson Bend.

The final time for the Holy Bull was 1:35.97 for the one-turn mile.  Winslow Homer returned $9.60 for the victory with Jackson Bend completing the Exacta and paying $3.40 for place.  William’s Kitten was moving well late, finishing 3rd and returning $4.40 for show.

Following the race, trainer Anthony Dutrow indicated that the Fountain of Youth Stakes (Grade 2) on February 20th at Gulfstream Park would likely be Winslow Homer’s next race.


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail

Holy Bull and Lecomte a remedy for early Derby Fever

22 01 2010

Horse and Plowman at Houghton Farm by landscape artist Winslow Homer

While it’s true that the official Kentucky Derby prep season begins well before this weekend, the racing action on Saturday at Fair Grounds and Gulfstream Park promises to treat viewers suffering with post Eclipse Awards “Derby Fever” with perhaps their first true glimpse of what the future holds.

Grade 3 Holy Bull

The 21st running of the Holy Bull (G3) in Saturday’s 9th race at Gulfstream Park (5:08 ET) will be contested by nine 3-year-old colts going 1 mile over the main track. In 2006, the legendary Barbaro used the Holy Bull as a spring board to his eventual triumph in the Kentucky Derby.  The field for this year’s Holy Bull sets up like this:

  1. Thank U Philippe (E. Castro/M. Wolfson) 8/1
  2. Homeboykris (E. Prado/R. Dutrow Jr.) 5/1
  3. Litigation Risk (A. Garcia/R. Violette) 12/1
  4. Piscitelli (K. Desormeaux/R. Sacco) 6/1
  5. William’s Kitten (J. Leparoux/M. Maker) 8/1
  6. Winslow Homer (R. Dominguez/A. Dutrow) 6/1)
  7. Wild Lime (J. Lezcano/M. Trombetta) 20/1
  8. Aikenite (J. Velazquez/T. Pletcher) 4/1
  9. Jackson Bend (J. Rose/N. Zito) 5/2*

The field is headlined by Nick Zito’s star trainee, JACKSON BEND, who has won 5 consecutive races including 4 consecutive stakes.  If he can stalk and pounce from his outside post position and get a decent trip, he makes for a dangerous chalk to play against.

It’s early in the year though.  Who comes here to play chalk in the first big race of the year?  Several other horses in this race look very playable if their morning line odds hold.

I’ll start with WILLIAM’S KITTEN, a son of Kitten’s Joy that my good friend Tencentcielo was eager to see on Breeders’ Cup weekend.  We raced to the paddock for the Juvenile to get a glimpse of him prior to the race.  Sent off at stratospheric odds, he both made a stronger visual impression in the paddock and ran a better race than his running line suggests.  I think this guy’s a player in here, although I think his better days are further down the road.

HOMEBOYKRIS is an interesting Maryland Bred for infamous trainer Rick Dutrow Jr.  He looked like a legitimate Derby contender in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont late last fall, but then pressed the pace and gave way stretching out to 9 furlongs in the Remsen (G2) in November.  The cut back to 1 mile and the bullet workouts in December and January suggest he’s ready to move forward.

Ultimately, I’m going to think a bit outside the box for my first prep play of the year.  I like the looks of WINSLOW HOMER quite a bit in this spot.  He’s only raced 3 times, but if not for a neck defeat in his début, the son of Unbridled’s Song would be a perfect 3 for 3.  He’s still got room for improvement and ran big off a  2 month layoff back in November at Philly Park.  Ramon Dominguez has to be excited to get another shot aboard this guy.  If the odds of 6/1 hold, I think he makes a lot of sense.

Oh yeah, about that random painting at the top of this post – that’s “”Horse and Ploughman at Houghton Farm by landscape artist Winslow Homer.  Seemed fitting, given this selection. :)

Selections for the G3 Holy Bull:

  • #6 Winslow Homer (6/1)
  • #9 Jackson Bend (5/2*)
  • #2 Homeboykris (5/1)

I’d add Aikenite and William’s Kitten into the exotic plays, and you may want to take a look at the Moss family entry, Piscitelli as well.

Dime Superfecta: 6/2,5,8,9/2,4,5,8,9/ALL = $9.60

Grade 3 Lecomte

The 66th running of the Lecomte in Saturday’s 10th race at Fair Grounds (4:43 CT) features 11 3-year-olds in a two-turn event covering 1 mile & 40 yards over the main track.  The most notable Lecomte winner of recent history was eventual runner up in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, Hard Spun.  Ironically, Friesan Fire, winner of last year’s Lecomte, is racing in the Louisiana Handicap at Fair Grounds on Saturday.

The field for the 2010 LecComte sets up as follows:

  1. Maximus Ruler (F. Torres/H. Clark) 4/1
  2. Turf Melody (J. Valdivia/G. Motion) 7/2
  3. Worldly (R. Albarado/P. McGee) 5/1
  4. Depaul (S. Sellers/S. Asmussen) 20/1
  5. Citrus Kid (M. Mena/J. Terranova) 8/1
  6. Callide Valley (C. Lanerie/E. Kenneally) 10/1
  7. B’wanagoldmine (E. Martin Jr./D. Pish) 15/1
  8. Letsgetitonmon (S. Bridgmohan/S. Asmussen) 10/1
  9. Coll Bullet (B. Hernandez Jr./S. Margolis) 5/1
  10. Rock Hard (H. Theriot/B. Barnett) 30/1
  11. Ron the Greek (J. Graham/T. Amoss) 8/1

MAXIMUS RULER is the horse that I think will ultimately go off as the post time favorite in this one, and for good reason.  While the son of Roman Ruler has never been two turns before, he is accomplished at the one mile distance last out racing close to the pace.  He’ll likely need to be involved early on breaking from the rail, but would seem to have the tools to turn in a solid performance if he can settle down in 2nd or 3rd.  I think he’s the obvious choice, even if I suspect he’ll be bet down a bit.

TURF MELODY heads out for my main man Graham Motion.  The son of Maria’s Mon has pulled off back-to-back victories at the mile distance in his last two starts – a sign that bodes very well for his chances here.  The only thing that worries me slightly is that Valdivia must get used to him right away. Russel and Rose certainly have this guy figured out, so hopefully Jose Jr. can be a quick study.  This runner has a nice old-school foundation laid in his running lines.  Graham just might have him ready to move forward here in start #1 for 2010.

WORLDLY is an interesting runner in this field, having been defeated by Stay Put last out in the same track/distance conditions.  The son of A.P. Indy would seem to need an improved performance to find the winner’s circle today, but it’s certainly not out of the question as there does seem to be some talent under the hood.

I’d look for CITRUS KID a little later in the year as the Lemon Drops can take a little while to get rolling, although this one did win back to back starts at Delaware Park last fall.  The water is a bit deeper here today, so he’d need his best stuff.  I’m going to consider him more of an underneath play in the exotics.

COOL BULLET is a horse stretching out for the first time who should be a factor in the pace scenario.  DEPAUL and CITRUS KID could challenge for the lead early on, which could open things up for the off-the-pace types coming in from behind.

Lastly, RON THE GREEK looks a little interesting from the outside post.  The son of Full Mandate started off his career with back to back victories before being defeated by TURF MELODY last out.  He’s another that warrants strong consideration for an underneath spot on the exotic plays.

Selections for the G3 Lecomte:

  • #1 Maximus Ruler (4/1)
  • #2 Turf Melody (7/2*)
  • #3 Worldly (5/1)

I’ll give CITRUS KID, COOL BULLET, and RON THE GREEK strong consideration for the bottom positions of my Superfecta play.  CALLIDE VALLEY is a horse I haven’t mentioned yet that could be a player as well.  I don’t want to totally sleep on the Asmussen runners DEPAUL and LETSGETITONMON or B’WANAGOLDMINE, but you know the drill; can’t chose ‘em all.

Dime Superfecta:  1/2,3,5,9/2,3,5,9,11/2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,11 =$11.20

So that’s where I stand headed into the first big weekend of the 2010 Kentucky Derby prep season.  I’m all in on WINSLOW HOMER and MAXIMUS RULER.  My only question for all of you is “who you got?”


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Handicapping Selections, Gulfstream Park, Fair Grounds, horse racing


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