The field is set. The post positions have been drawn. Even the morning line odds have been established for the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby. All that’s left to do now is pick a winner, lay the bets, and wait for the gates to open.
I’m not going to officially make a pick here now – as I’ve still got several days to mull things over. I think most of you are already familiar with the horses I think most highly of. I’ll do one final ranking of the contenders on Friday along with my picks. For now, let’s take a look at the field.
- Cool Coal Man (20/1)
- Tale of Ekati (15/1)
- Anak Nakal (30/1)
- Court Vision (20/1)
- Eight Belles (20/1)
- Z Fortune (15/1)
- Big Truck (50/1)
- Visionaire (20/1)
- Pyro (6/1)
- Colonel John (4/1)
- Z Humor (30/1)
- Smooth Air (20/1)
- Bob Black Jack (20/1)
- Monba (15/1)
- Adriano (30/1)
- Denis of Cork (20/1)
- Cowboy Cal (20/1)
- Recapturetheglory (20/1)
- Gayego (15/1)
- Big Brown (3/1*)
First things first. The likely favorite, Big Brown, has drawn the extreme outside post position of #20. No horse has ever won the Derby from the 20 hole, so he’ll have to make history if he is to prevail. I like Big Brown a lot and think he’s a worthy favorite, but will the 20 hole be too much to overcome?
All of the speed in the race (Big Brown, Recapturetheglory, Cowboy Cal, even Gayego to a certain extent) appears to be to the outside. Not only that, but they are all closely bunched together. Bob Black Jack is breaking from the 13 hole – not too far away. Might this lead to a bit hotter of a pace than many have been expecting?
Looking over the odds, it appears that Gayego and Eight Belles got a bit of the Rodney Dangerfield “no respect” treatment. Gayego is at 15/1, while the filly Eight Belles is listed at 20/1. Personally, I’ll take those odds all day long on those horses.
Pyro is at 6/1, despite numerous impressive dirt tries, while Colonel John, who has yet to race over the surface, is at lower odds of 4/1. Z Fortune, Monba, and Tale of Ekati join Gayego as not having received a shred of respect at 15/1.
I’m just going to come out and say this now. I’m not a fan of Big Brown being right next to the likely speed contenders in the 20 hole. Picking against him in the Florida Derby when he was in the 12 hole turned out to be a bad play by me a month ago. I know I’m possibly guilty of making the same mistake, but I’m not thinking that I’ll accept the favorite at such a short price (although to be honest, 3/1 really isn’t that bad for a colt with the talent of Big Brown) breaking from such an extreme outside position in the Derby. There looks to be value elsewhere.
I like the middle-of-the field post positions for Visionaire (8), Pyro (9), and Colonel John (10) especially. I think these horses got really good draws that can set them up for nice runs on Saturday. I’m not going to back any of them for the win purely based on post position though and am only noting that this will factor into the equation at some level. The middle of the pack just looks like the sweet spot, doesn’t it?
We’ve got a bevy of seasoned and well established readers that visit here often, and I’d like to hear your opinions on the post positions and odds. Who do you guys see as having a beneficial post? What do you make of Big Brown and the speed breaking from the outside? Does anyone’s odds make you giddy at the prospect of a big payout?
RECENT COMMENTS