Getting to Know the Preakness Contenders

10 05 2010

It’s time, folks.  Preak-week is officially here in Baltimore, meaning that  if you haven’t already done so, it’s time to officially get your Preak on.  With so much to do in so little time, let’s run down the list of contenders for Preakness 135.

  • Super Saver

As George C. Scott once opined in the approximate likeness of General George S. Patton: “America loves a winner!” Indeed we do, and here he is – your Derby winner, chicken dinner.  The talented son of Maria’s Mon galloped off into history under the confident guide of jockey Calvin Borel.  With the slightly shorter distance of the Preakness up next, his tactical speed should give him a clear advantage and make him the worthy favorite.  All signs point to a successful invasion of Baltimore.

  • Lookin at Lucky

Stop me when this sounds familiar.  A highly regarded son of Smart Strike contests for favoritism on the tote board on Derby morning, and then suffers a horrific trip that essentially eliminates him from contention.  He returns to the Preakness where he’s promptly given no chance to stage the upset against a seemingly dominant Derby champion, whose initials happen to be S.S., and his equally dominant jockey Calvin Borel.  Shades of 2007, anyone?  The only thing amiss is that Lucky happens to be the defending 2-year-old champion.  Perhaps the most unlucky horse in all of racing.  Anyone who watched his “trip from hell” in the Santa Anita Derby probably thought that was as bad as things could possibly get for Lucky.  Not so, unofortuately, as he was smashed by Stately Victor in the early going of the Derby.  The colt fought on for a 6th place ribbon that, all things considered, was better than he should’ve finished.  He’s shipped all over the nation so far in this campaign.  If he ever gets his day where the racing gods decide to show some mercy – he’s good enough to be right there at the wire.  Martin Garcia will be aboard for the Preakness.

  • Paddy O’Prado

In a Kentucky Derby FILLED with “wise guy” horses, this was perhaps the wisest of them all. The son of El Prado had been reportedly working very sharp for that effort on the first Saturday in May, and despite some wild weaving throughout the race, showed that he was clearly one of the top contenders.  On paper he didn’t look like that intimidating a dirt horse, but if he takes to the Pimlico surface at all like he did at Churchill Downs,  he’d be one to watch again.

  • Caracortado

I picture good ole “Scarface” in his stall two weekends ago watching the chaos of the Derby and remarking: “Do you know what a haza is, Mike (Machowsky)?  It’s a horse – who don’t run straight!” All he has in this world are his guts and his heart.  He began with 5 consecutive victories, entrenching himself as a weekly “Cris Carter” reference on our Derby watch lists.  However, the world was not his, and his empire collapsed around him with back to back losses (including the Santa Anita Derby).  He’s back now, and he’s ready to eat the competition for breakfast.  He also thinks girls like ice cream, but I digress.

  • Pleasant Prince

His connections were dreaming when they wrote this, so sue them if this goes astray.  When he woke up this morning coulda swore it was Derby day. Anyone with Eastern European ancestory already knows this, but as Pleasant Prince and Ice Box learned so well earlier in the year: “what a difference a nose can make!” The prince was nosed by Ice Box in the Florida Derby, who went on to explode for 2nd in the Kentucky Derby. Last out he was 3rd in the Derby Trial behind Hurricane Ike and Aikenite.  A nose, a nose, his kingdom for a nose!

  • Dublin

Big, beautiful chestnut will once again go to post for legendary Preakness trainer D. Wayne Lukas.  You know me – I’m a sucker for chestnuts, but I’m on the fence with this guy.  Each race he seems to unleash a fairly solid move – and then suddenly runs flat the rest of the way.  Then again, he is a son of Afleet Alex, and all one need do is remember the magic of the 2005 Preakness.  I’m expecting improvement this weekend.

  • Hurricane Ike

I like Ike.  The winner of the Derby Trial is trainer John Sadler’s first Preakness runner.  Took six tries to break his maiden but has shown marked improvement since, including a 2nd place finish two races back to Eightyfiveinafifty in the G3 Bayshore.  If he can handle the distance, he’s got a shot to make some noise this weekend.

  • Yawanna Twist

Earned some praise by finishing 2nd in the G3 Gotham to Awesome Act and the Grade 3 Illinois Derby to American Lion, but the performances of those two in the Kentucky Derby did little to flatter his chances.  He does have tricky Rick Dutrow in his corner though.  Stranger things have happened.

  • Jackson Bend

Routinely lampooned during the Derby prep season despite running his heart out for 2nd place finishes to Eskendereya on separate occassions.  So distance and class finally caught up with him in the Derby, where he finished 12th.  If you go back and watch that trip, considering how wide he was, that actually isn’t as bad as it seems.

  • First Dude

Became the dude that benefitted from the scratch of A Little Warm.  Hasn’t won since the end of January (1/30 at Gulfstream), but has finished 5th in the G1 Florida Derby and 3rd in the G1 Toyota Bluegrass.  Got a feeling he’s improving at the right time, but it would still be a surprise to see him in the winner’s circle.

  • Schoolyard Dreams

A victory by he or Super Saver and the legend of Odysseus will live on forever.  Tough to remember that this horse had that Tampa Bay Derby won, only to lose in the final stride.  The son of Stephen Got Even drilled 5 furlongs in :59.60 on 5/7.   Would need to improve to threaten.

  • Aikenite

We’ve seen this story before, haven’t we?  Stablemate to the Derby winner and perhaps another contender in Mission Impazible.  A forgotten horse totally written off and thought to have no chance?  He’s a one-run closing type that will need some help in front, but his coworkers ought to help with that.  His 2nd in the Derby Trial and 3rd in the Bluegrass suggests he’s moving forward.  I’m considering adding him into my exotic plays on Preakness day as I suspect he’ll be dismissed by most.

  • Northern Giant

On the plus side, he was 2nd to Dean’s Kitten in the G2 Lane’s End, and 3rd in the G2 Risen Star.  On the down side he was 9th in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.  No rider has been named yet, but the horse helps mark the 11th time D. Wayne Lukas has sent multiple entries to post in the Preakness.

So there you have ‘em, folks – you’re 2010 Preakness contenders. The obvious question for all is: Who do you like in the Preakness?

We’ll be back later in the week for a recap of the Alibi Breakfast at Pimlico on Thursday morning.  Selections for the Black Eyed Susan card on Friday will follow, and then our picks for all of the races on Preakness Day will be up Friday night and into Saturday.


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Categories : Caracortado, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible, Paddy O'Prado, Pimlico, Preakness, Super Saver, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Super Saver Wins Kentucky Derby 136

2 05 2010

Another Derby is in the books and a new champion has been crowned.  Under the confident guide of jockey Calvin Borel, Super Saver, a 3-year-old son of Maria’s Mon out of the A.P. Indy mare Supercharger, has entered the history books as the winner of Kentucky Derby 136.

Yes – that Super Saver.  The same one who contended with Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy for tote board favoritism all throughout Derby weekend.  The same one who had been previously defeated by contenders Line of David, Homeboykris, and Discreetly Mine (twice) – not to mention a certain chestnut named Odysseus that we were fond of here.  The same Super Saver that lucky fan Glenn Fullerton supported with a $100,000 win wager he had earned in a contest from Churchill Downs (that’s him you see celebrating in the replay up above).

The win, of course, also broke the so-called “Derby curse” for trainer Todd Pletcher, who had been a seeming 0-for-infinity in recent years, despite saddling numerous horses each year.  Additionally, the folks over at Winstar got their first taste of Derby victory.  This once again should prove to racing fans that rules (no pun intended) were made to be broken.

As the field strode past in the post parade, I thought Super Saver looked feisty, but actually felt that Mission Impazible, Lookin at Lucky, and Awesome Act looked the best.  Stately Victor and the filly Devil May Care made decent impressions as well.  The odds on the tote board had been insane all weekend, with the public seemingly unsure of which direction to go.  People wondered whether the favorites should be tossed because of their post positions or included because of the “value” they were offering?  One horse remained constant on everyone’s lips though – Super Saver.

Earlier in the day, it had appeared that the rail was not the place a horse wanted to be in the stretch.  The rains at Churchill had seemingly made the center of the track prime real estate – but as the rain ceased and the crews worked tirelessly to improve conditions, that began to change.  Jockey Calvin Borel actually served notice two races before that the rail was open for business when he guided longshot Atta Boy Roy home to victory following a rail-riding trip in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs.  Anyone watching had to feel that it boded well for Super Saver’s chances.

When the gates swung open for the Kentucky Derby a few hours later, Conveyance and Sidney’s Candy shot out to the lead.  Going into the first turn, Mission Impazible and Lookin at Lucky both seemed to stop running.  Mission Impazible may have clipped heels early on, which no doubt had a negative impact on his trip.  Of course, he also bumped a bit with Devil May Care at the top of the stretch, so despite making a strong impression visually, the racing gods had clearly decided this would not be Mission Impazible’s day.

Lucky, the morning line favorite, once again found out that if it weren’t for bad luck, he’d have no luck at all.  According to jockey Garrett Gomez, he stopped running as they went into the turn after getting bounced around a bit.  There appeared to be some bumper-car action going on at this point in time.  It’s hard to tell for certain, but it looks like Paddy O’Prado came over a bit and forced Stately Victor into contact with Lucky.  Lucky would eventually improve his position, but he was not full of the kind of run many expected to see -  which makes me hope that the colt came out of this race healthy from a physical standpoint as he’s been through some awfully tough races this year.

The other morning line favorite, Sidney’s Candy, seemingly got used up from the 20 hole and the hot pace battle between he and Conveyance that resulted in a swift :46.16 opening half mile.  The son of Candy Ride simply had nothing in the tank when the stretch arrived and the real running began, eventually fading to 17th.

Calvin Borel and Super Saver used the well-patented “Bo-Rail” trip to stalk the hot pace until the field went into the turn, and then out finished the swerving Paddy O’Prado and the late flying Ice Box to the wire in 2:04.45.  Ice Box was 2 1/2 lengths back for place, while Paddy O’Prado needed all of the luck of the Irish he could muster to hang on for show.

Full results chart from Equibase.

Someone tell me why they shouldn’t have a lifesize statue of Borel at Churchill Downs?  Dude has now won 3 of the last 4 Kentucky Derbies with essentially the same move;  aboard Street Sense in 2007, Mine That Bird in 2009, and now Super Saver in 2010.

Looking ahead, I’m not sure anyone else was really running well late besides Super Saver, Ice Box, and Make Music For Me.  Paddy was tough enough to hang on for show – but as mentioned earlier, he may have been involved in some contact that helped knock other horses out of the race.  Obviously for Ice Box and Make Music For Me, they were aided by the swift early pace and were able to close into a tiring field – but where does this leave us for the Preakness two Saturdays from now?

My hunch is that if Ice Box’s connections decide to give him a 5 week rest for the Belmont (which seems logical given that he had 6 weeks off prior to the Derby), that Super Saver may be extremely difficult to beat.  If Borel’s past Derby winners are any indication, we know he’s a mortal lock for the Exacta (Street Sense and Mine That Bird having both finished 2nd in the Preakness in their respective tries).

It’ll be interesting to see who comes out of the Derby field and points to the Preakness.  If Lucky turns out healthy, Baffert might be inclined to ship.  Paddy O’ Prado would be interesting as well.  Another horse I’d like to see make his way to Baltimore, given the hearty performance he gave on the track, is the little fella Noble’s Promise.  For a moment there I thought he was making a powerful move as the field neared the top of the stretch – which was very surprising given the fact I had completely tossed him and thought he looked physically outmatched during the post parade.  I’d also like to see Mission Impazible and Stately Victor again.  Speaking of victors, can I add to that wishlist the Kentucky Oaks champion Blind Luck?

As for my own picks – we should probably just tuck them away in some far off dusty corner of the blogosphere and refer to them as “the picks we shall not speak of.” Awesome Act, my checkmark, finished 19th of 20 – marking the second consecutive year that my top choice has finished 19th out of 20 (Friesan Fire having earned similar distinction in 2009).

The monkey may be off Todd Pletcher’s back, but it is now firmly on mine.  I’m starting to feel a bit like D. Wayne Lukas.  Oh sure, I’ve cashed Derby wagers before – even did so this weekend on Super Saver – but I haven’t seen my top pick win the thing in years (going back to Barbaro in 2006).  Thankfully, my Preakness form is a mirror opposite, as we’ve had success every year since 2006 (go figure).  Who knows, with a little “luck”, hopefully that trend can continue.

For the now though, the million dollar question is whether Super Saver will triumph in the Preakness and complete the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown?  What say you?


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Categories : Awesome Act, Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Lookin at Lucky, Odysseus, Paddy O'Prado, Sidney's Candy, Super Saver

Selections for Kentucky Derby Saturday

30 04 2010

After an amazing Friday that saw the valiant victory of Blind Luck catching Evening Jewel in the final stride at the wire in the Kentucky Oaks, attention now turns to the “greatest 2 minutes in sports” with the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.  Despite gorgeous weather on Friday storm clouds loom on the horizon for Saturday, prompting Churchill to already cancel morning workouts.

Obviously weather changes can cause havoc with handicapping selections posted a day in advance.  I make no apologies for the effects that  field decimating scratches may play with the picks that follow.

Before we begin though, let me just say this.  Typically I have fairly strong opinions going into the Derby.  This year, thanks to the injuries to horses like Odysseus, Endorsement, and of course Eskendereya – my opinions are nowhere near as strong as usual.  Complicating matters further was the odd post position draw that saw the top two contenders on the morning line – Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy – bookended on the extreme inside and outside, respectively.

Still, there’s only one Derby day each year, so without further adieu, let’s jump into the action. We’ll pick things up with the G3 Eight Belles (Race 6).

Race 6 – Grade 3 Eight Belles – 7 1/2 Furlongs

The opening stakes race of the day looks like a spot many will use as a single with Hot Dixie Chick.  There are a couple of horses capable of pulling the upset here, including the daughter of Indian Charlie breaking from the outside in the 7 hole, Visavis, and the horse drawn to her inside, Buckleupbuttercup.  Additionally, you’ve got the wily D. Wayne Lukas with Decelerator and the sneaky Rick Dutrow with Sister Resistor, who sports the kind of darkened form that should assure a good price on the board.  As much as I’d like a price to start off the day, I think this one turns out fairly obvious with Hot Dixie Chick getting the job done.

Selections:

  • #2 Hot Dixie Chick (1/1*)
  • #7 Visavis (4/1)
  • #1 Buckleupbuttercup (8/1)

Race 7: Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile – 1 Mile (Turf)

A fairly contentious field awaits for the 7th.  If you follow along here, you know that I’m a guy who has never met a Tiznow he didn’t like, and that makes Tizaqueena attractive here despite the short 5/2 price.  Hot Cha Cha would be no surprise to see in the winner’s circle as she may be peaking at the right point in time for this.  Perhaps the most intriguing entry is Fantasia, who competed against the likes of Stacelita and Rainbow View in Europe last year.  Her tune up last out was quite impressive, and with Leparoux aboard I think she has to be respected.  I’ll give Diamondrella a small shot here as well – as she may be setup well if the race comes up on soft turf as expected.

Selections:

  • #5 Tizaqueena (5/2*)
  • #3 Fantasia (5/1)
  • #6 Hot Cha Cha (3/1)

Race 8: Grade 1 Humana Distaff – 7 Furlongs

Informed Decision will likely attract much of the attention in the Humana Distaff, but count me among those concerned by the seasonal debut in which she was defeated by Dr. Zic and Dubai Majesty.  She’s going to be a very short price, but I don’t think she’s anywhere near as bulletproof from an exotic betting standpoint as Hot Dixie Chick is in Race 6.  I’m going to be playing Warbling here as my top play, who comes off three consecutive fairly strong performances and picks up the services of Ramon Dominguez.  Warbling is listed at 8/1 compared to 2/1 on Informed Decision – so it’s a value play all the way.  I may have loved Informed Decision in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last fall, but I’m not feeling as confident here.  You could honestly make a case for the entire field in the underneath positions of your exotics, even though I settled on likely pace player Dr. Zic,  so “…bet on who you will.”

Selections

  • #2 Warbling (8/1)
  • #3 Informed Decision (2/1*)
  • #1 Dr. Zic (9/2)

Race 9: Grade 2 Churchill Downs

Another interesting field awaits for the Churchill Downs Stakes. The theme for this race if your alive in the exotics is “Staying Alive.”  Several of last year’s top male sprinters have returned, including Munnings, Musket Man, and Kensei along with “now horses” like Wall Street Wonder, Warrior’s Reward, and Atta Boy Roy.  Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these win, so this looks like a race you’ve got to spread a bit on in the Pick 4 and Pick 6 sequences for some coverage.  My gut tells me that Wall Street Wonder and Warrior’s Reward are in the best shape right now, but I wouldn’t advise leaving any of the previously mentioned contenders off your tickets. Accredit is another you have to keep an eye on – especially if the race comes up sloppy.  I’ll be covering 3, 7, 9, 12, and 13 in my Pick 4 wager, if that’s any indication.

Selections:

  • #7 Warrior’s Reward (4/1)
  • #3 Wall Street Wonder (12/1)
  • #11 Kensei (10/1)

Race 10: Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

Another race with an opportunity to select a martial sounding horse.  I’ve already taken Warbling and Warrior’s Reward in the preceding races, so it’s probably no surprise that I’m on Battle of Hastings in the Woodford Reserve.  The son of Royal Applause hasn’t found the winner’s circle since last July, but he’s a fighter who is making the ever-intriguing 3rd start since his last layoff.  I’m also a Court Vision fan, so I’ve got to give him a chance as well.  Blues Street is another one I think you have to consider coming off 4 straight victories.  The x-factor of the race?  How about Loup Breton?  His form was darkened last out, but prior to that he seemed to be on his way to becoming fairly useful.  As for fan favorite General Quarters?  I’d use him underneath, but not on top.

Selections:

  • #5 Battle of Hastings (5/1)
  • #3 Court Vision (9/5*)
  • #7 Blues Street (6/1)

Race 11: Grade 1 Kentucky Derby  - 1 1/4 Miles

Well, here we are folks. If you’re a racing fan, you think about this moment 365 days a year – and now it’s here once again.  Twenty horses…$2 million on the line in purse earnings…a lifetime of fame, glory, and honor.  In just a few short hours, a 3-year-old will stamp themselves firmly atop the division by winning the marquee race of the year.  Who will it be?

Because of the anticipated forecast, I think you have to start with the horses in the lead.  Most likely that will include Line of David and Conveyance.  If these two hook up, they should cook each other – although in the slop speed horses seem to hang on just that little while longer to make them formidable.  Perhaps the horses with the best chances will be those coming from the next flight back?   There’s literally a half dozen horses you could anticipate being in such a position.

As for those with off-track pedigrees, many are focusing on Stately Victor, Awesome Act, and Mission Impazible.  I think all 3 of those horses make a lot of sense.  As long as Awesome Act can get the distance, he’d be my top play in the race.  That being said, there’s two pairs any contender must deal with to earn the honor of wearing the roses.

The first pair is the two morning line favorites; Lookin at Lucky breaking from the rail and Sidney’s Candy breaking from the extreme outside in the 20 hole.  I don’t think you can “toss” either of these safely, though many will do so in favor of a better price.  Trainer Bob Baffert summed up Lucky’s chances best when he said they were “screwed” if they didn’t break well.  I’m actually more concerned with Sidney’s post though, despite the fact that he should at least break cleanly without anyone to the outside.

The other pair are what I would term the x-factors; the filly Devil May Care and the horse who has seemingly stolen some of the Irish luck – Paddy O’ Prado.

We could go a million ways in this race.  At the end of the day I do think Awesome Act will be a force on the sloppy track, should that condition arise as expected.  Steve Haskin has noted the excellent off-track pedigree of Stately Victor, and by all accounts the colt has worked well enough to be considered in the mix.  Lastly, despite his seemingly turf/synthetic preference in his profile, I’m going to take a shot with Paddy O’Prado, who has worked well in preparation for the big show.

Like I said, ultimately I think Lucky and Sidney are the most talented – so play against them at your own risk - but from those post positions you won’t hear me argue with anyone who plays against them.  I’m leaving them out of my top selections below, but don’t think for a moment that I won’t have them in my picks somewhere.

Last but not least – you’ve got to to something with Super Saver, right? I mean, it is Calvin Bo-rail and from his post position draw he may well find himself in perfect position as the field begins the turn for home.

Drum roll, please…

Selections:

  • #16 Awesome Act (10/1)
  • #6 Stately Victor (30/1)
  • #11 Devil May Care (10/1)

Best of luck to everyone – and may all of your Derby wagers be signers!  :)


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Categories : Awesome Act, Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Selections for Kentucky Oaks Day

29 04 2010

Derby weekend is FINALLY here!  Before we get too caught up in the actual Derby madness – there’s a fantastic card of racing for Friday to take in first.  Not only do we get the Oaks, but also 5 other stakes races as well – including the return of the defending Horse of the Year in Rachel Alexandra in the Grade 2 La Troienne (and her new nemesis, Zardana).

The weather figures to be mild for Oaks Friday, although storm clouds are expected for the Derby on Saturday.  If you’re interested in putting your opinion on the line – take a few moments to fill out our Win-Place-Show pool for the TBA over on Google Docs.  It’s a standard mythical $2 across-the-board setup with one horse in each race.

Anyhow, let’s jump right into the thick of things, shall we?

Rachel Alexandra, the defending Horse of the Year, returns against newfound nemesis Zardana in the G2 La Troienne on Friday

Race 6: Grade 2 La Troienne (1:26 PM ET) – 1 1/16 Miles

A heavyweight bout of epic proportions: Zardana vs. Rachel – Round 2!  If team Rachel tries to gun for the front again, I think they are in trouble.  There’s “speed” on the inside (#1 Be Fair), and to her outside (#5 Unrivalled Belle and #6 Distinctive Dixie).  I’d much prefer a stalk and pounce trip the way she demonstrated in the Haskell and Mother Goose last year.  This one looks like a two-horse race between Zardana and Rachel – and it will likely take all the defending Horse of the Year has to make amends.  On the plus side, she’s supposedly training better - and it’s good she has a race under he belt, but Zardana will not be intimidated and must be reckoned with in the stretch.

Selections:

  • #4 Rachel Alexandra (3/5*)
  • #3 Zardana (3/1)
  • #5 Unrivaled Belle (5/1)

Race 7: Grade 3 Kentucky Juvenile Stakes (2:10 PM ET) – 5 Furlongs

Two-year-old Juvies.  Looks like a field that has some talented runners who ran well in their debuts.  What I see here is a wealth of speed, and while I know we’re only going 5 furlongs, the feeling is that it sets up well for Lou Brissie to come from just off the battle up front and pass them all in deep stretch.  I know Twelve Pack Shelly (beyond the cool name) has the outrageous speed figure for the debut, but that  was against Laurel Park maidens, so I’ll make her beat me if I can (lord knows with a name like that she could drink me under the table anyways).

Selections:

  • #2 Lou Brissie (5/1)
  • #9 Twelve Pack Shelly (3/1)
  • #4 Weekend Wildcat (12/1)

Race 8: Grade 3 Churchill Downs Turf Sprint (3:04 PM ET) – 5 Furlongs (Turf)

Chamberlain Bridge is lethal at this distance (10 wins in 19 starts), but was handled by Silver Timber last out.  Get the feeling this one comes down to these two as well.  Longer odds horses with a shot here include Starfish Bay, Formidable, Heavenly Chorus, and Mitigation (I seldom toss any horse Alan Garcia is aboard).  Oh, and do not the presence of Garrett Gomez on #8 Barge as well.  Feels like a race I’d like to take a chance on with a longer priced horse, but I still think it comes down to the obvious 2 when all is said and done, and I’ll give the edge to Chamberlain Bridge on the slight cutback in distance.

Selections:

  • #3 Chamberlain Bridge (5/2)
  • #6 Silver Timber (2/1*)
  • #9 Formidable (12/1)

Race 9: Grade 3 Alysheba Stakes (3:54 PM ET) – 1 1/16 Miles

Hard for me to be objective here.  On the one hand my 2009 Kentucky Derby pick Friesan Fire is here, as is my old pal Bullsbay for Graham Motion.  Obviously the bull needs some pace to run at, but there’s not a lot here.  Friesan Fire , Enriched,  and Cool Coal Man could all factor into the pace equation.  Bullsbay has been off since the Clark (G2) last November, but c’mon – I can’t pick against my boy here.  Like I said, hard to be objective for me.

Selections:

  • #6 Bullsbay (6/1)
  • #4 Cool Coal Man (4/1)
  • #2 Friesan Fire (7/2*)

Race 10: Grade 2 American Turf Stakes (4:47 PM ET) – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

The story behind the scenes for the American Turf is the entry of Setsuko, who would’ve been somewhat interesting in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday following his impressive 2nd place finish behind tepid Derby favorite Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby.  Alas, while Make Music for Me  and Backtalk are in the Derby, Setsuko is here.  You may remember this guy from my initial KY Derby watch list in early February.  Two other horses I really like in this spot are Workin For Hops, who has won 3 of 4 lifetime and figures to get a decent trip if he isn’t hindered by the outside post in the 11 hole, and Doubles Partner, who could offer some value on the return to dirt with Garrett Gomez aboard.

Selections:

  • #11 Workin For Hops (12/1)
  • #6 Doubles Partner (10/1)
  • #1 Setsuko (4/1)

Race 11: Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks (5:45 PM ET) – 1 1/8 Miles

The feature race of the day may well be the best betting opportunity as well.  Most of the attention will rightly focus on Blind Luck, whom I think would make even more sense than Devil May Care in the Derby, but I digress.  That being said, there’s another horse in here I’m extremely fond of – It’s Tea Time.  I gave this horse out as my pick for the Ashland at the beginning of April during a chat on the Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds website (a great spot for horse racing fans, I might add).  I was mildly ridiculed at the time – but I suspect this daughter of Dynaformer earned some respect when she almost nailed Evening Jewel at the wire.  I know she can get the distance of the Oaks.  What I don’t know is how she’ll like the dirt?  This much is certain – she’s my favorite 3-year-old filly at the moment, so you know I’m backing her all the way.

Selections:

  • #1 It’s Tea Time (10/1)
  • #5 Blind Luck (6/5*)
  • #11 Evening Jewel (10/1)

That’ll do it for our Oaks picks – check back tomorrow afternoon/evening for our picks for each of the major races this Saturday – including the Kentucky Derby.   Best of luck to all.


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Rachel Alexandra

Odysseus – the Derby dream endeth

14 04 2010

I’ve been silent since the weekend, left to ponder in solitude what might have been and what will never be.  Odysseus, the horse I’ve touted as a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender since mid-February floundered in the Toyota Blue Grass last weekend at Keeneland, sustaining an injury in the process and effectively ending the Derby dream.

Unsure of how to approach the topic, I’ve returned to my roots. It was, after all, a couple of Youtube videos from the 2007 Triple Crown season that launched this adventure here at The Aspiring Horseplayer.

In an attempt to convey (albeit in slightly humorous fashion) my thoughts and misgivings on the matter, I’m presenting the following video that plays on my favorite Youtube meme other than the infamous Keyboard Cat.

Behold:

Hitler is angry that Odysseus is off the Derby trail.

Evidently it takes a while for news to reach underground bunkers in Berlin where the fury of the der Fuhrer is awaiting his final destruction at the hands of the Red Army. :)


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Odysseus

The Fifth Column – Updated Kentucky Derby Rankings

28 03 2010

It gives me great pleasure to unveil our fifth installment of the weekly Kentucky Derby rankings madness.  The weekend saw the defeats of Discreetly Mine and Conveyance from our previous Derby ranking list, and the emergence of a potential fifth column of new contenders looking to close the gap between themselves and the leading candidates.

In winning the Grade 3 Sunland Derby, Endorsement proved our good friend Tencentcielo prophetic in his prediction from a full week prior.  Additionally, our buddy Gary Quill called Dean’s Kitten in the Grade 2 Lane’s End Stakes.  Over on Twitter, Valerie from Foolish Pleasure gave out Mission Impazible as the other Pletcher in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby.  Congrats to all of you on your fine selections.  As for me, my picks were decidedly le stinky: Ron the Greek, Conveyance, and Northern Giant.

Obviously not my best stuff, and needless to say when I return from a business trip to Phoenix this week, I’ll be looking to make amends in the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, and Illinois Derby this Saturday.

  • #1 Odysseus

In all truth is probably best considered a notch below Eskendereya and Lookin at Lucky, but this has been my guy since mid-February, so I have to keep him here until he gives me reason to think otherwise.  Two portents of impending danger this week were the decision to point the son of Malibu Moon to the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland and the big ride jockey Rajiv Maragh had aboard Mission Impazible.  The latter sets up a potential decision for Maragh that impact Odysseus greatly.  One last omen is that he will run into an accomplished turf/synthetic horse with a good late kick in Interactif in the Toyota Blue Grass on 4/10.  My eyes, my heart, and my gut still tell me this is a real race horse.  If he’s the horse I think he is, he’ll catch the earnings he needs in the Blue Grass to secure a starting spot in the Derby.  He doesn’t need to win, but he’ll need a good trip to keep his sharp jockey on his back.

  • #2 Eskendereya

The son of Giant’s Causeway absolutely dominated competition in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes.  Two of the horses he thrashed; Ice Box and Pleasant Prince, came back to finish 1st and 2nd in the Grade 1 Florida Derby this past weekend.  The colt gives trainer Todd Pletcher arguably his best chance at a Kentucky Derby in years.  Will likely be the favorite in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3.  The Wood might come up tough, so he may be tested this weekend.

  • #3 Lookin at Lucky

Might be the best 3-year-old in the nation at the moment. Overcame a trip from hell to win the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park.  Oaklawn has been the launching point of numerous 3-year-olds in recent seasons, including Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2008.  This colt seems to have all the tools to be a Derby winner and more. According to the most recent news from Bloodhorse, he’s 90% certain for the Santa Anita Derby on April 3.  Will the moves from synthetics to dirt and back again be an issue, or is this colt simply too talented to be bothered by the shipping?

  • #4 Awesome Act

Remains my 2nd favorite 3-year-old on this list behind Odysseus.  Good looking son of Awesome Again has a potential showdown brewing with fellow top contender Eskendereya in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial this weekend.  The Gotham winner trained overseas in England for much of his career and was publicly dismissed by yours truly prior to his North American debut victory.  Now I consider him my Hard Spun of this crop (given that Odysseus is my Curlin, I guess that makes Lucky this year’s Street Sense as defending 2-year-old champion).

  • #5 Ice Box

Proves that this time of year is all about the what have you done for me lately approach.  Win a Grade 1 prep race AND show that you can come off the pace doing so?  That’ll give you a spot in the top 5 for now.  It’s noteworthy that he was crushed by Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth, but he never really got a chance to get uncorked in that race.  If the Derby winds up with anywhere near as much speed as it looks thus far, this guy would have to be considered a player on pace alone.

  • #6 Mission Impazible

Rousing victory for the son of Unbridled’s Song in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby makes him the fastest rising horse on the list.  Yet another contender for the ubiquitous Pletcher barn in their quest for a first Derby victory.  The Louisiana Derby was a strange race to me.  It looked fast early and a little ugly late, but Mission Impazible was running well through the wire.  Colt gives Rajiv Maragh something to think about with respect to the Kentucky Derby and Odysseus.

  • #7 Endorsement

I’ll probably take some flak for being so generous here, but let me make the case for this horse, as I think another contender just tossed their hat into the ring before our eyes.  He won the Grade 3 Sunland Derby in record time of 1:48.46.  In doing so, he defeated one of our “Cris Charter” (without the “h”) types in Conveyance, and the popular Tempted to Tapit.  He’s a son of Distorted Humor out of an A.P. Indy mare (Charmed Gift), so I don’t think distance will be a concern.  Seems to be peaking at the perfect time to potentially make some noise.

  • #8 Sidney’s Candy

Will evidently have to deal with Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby next Saturday, which might be a tall order.  Many question whether this horse can get the longer distances – especially if seriously challenged – but at the end of the day the son of Candy Ride is the San Felipe winner and did defeat Caracortado and Interactif in that race (despite setting easy early fractions).  As I’ve said from the start, could still be any kind of horse.

  • #9 Interactif

To many observers, this was the most impressive horse of the San Felipe, despite being defeated by Sidney’s Candy.  So far he’s proven over turf and synthetics, and usually that bodes well for a horse’s prospects at also being versatile enough to run strongly on dirt, but I’d rather know definitively going into the first Saturday in May.  Will go into the Toyota Blue Grass this weekend with a great chance to pull a victory over Odysseus on the synthetic Keeneland surface.  Just remember that at one point in 2007, Dominican beat Street Sense in the same race.

  • #10 Noble’s Promise

Without a doubt, the standout Rodney Dangerfield of our list.  Depending on how you look at him, he’s either a step away from having defeated Lookin at Lucky, or he’s a son of Cuvee that either can’t find a way to win the close ones and/or won’t get the distance of the Derby.  He seems like an overachiever to me, and he’s always right there in the mix.  Maybe folks forgot to tell him he’s just a son of Cuvee? Will face off against Dublin, Pulsion, and others in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.

Honorable Mention List (in no particular order):

  • Pleasant Prince - 2nd place finisher behind Ice Box in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.
  • Schoolyard Dreams – if Odysseus is my #1, this horse almost had him in a fittingly epic photo finish end to the G3 Tampa Bay Derby.
  • Drosselmeyer – Likely not Derby bound, but put in a good run in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and could be a player for the Preakness.
  • Caracortado – is the world still yours, Scarface?
  • Super Saver – needed a race going into the G3 Tampa Bay Derby.
  • Dublin – reunites with jockey Terry Thompson for the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on 4/10.
  • Conveyance - was no match in the stretch for Endorsement in the G3 Sunland Derby.
  • D’Funnybone – accomplished 1-turn horse being whispered as a potential Preakness candidate.
  • Dean’s Kitten - Not sure he beat anyone in the Lane’s End, but that was a 9 furlong Grade 2 victory.
  • Jackson Bend – another Rodney Dangerfield type who gets no respect, but will get a crack at Esky and Awesome Act in the Wood this weekend.

Coming up this Saturday, April 3 is a pair of prestigious Grade 1 races in the Wood Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby.  Also on tap is the Grade 3 Illinois Derby.


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Categories : Awesome Act, Conveyance, Discreetly Mine, Endorsement, Eskendereya, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Intearactif, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible, Noble's Promise, Odysseus, Sidney's Candy

Kentucky Derby Rankings – Episode IV: A New Hope

22 03 2010

With 40 days to go until the 2010 Kentucky Derby, it’s time to take another look at the top contenders and see if we can make any sense of things.  The past weekend saw the emergence of a long awaited true closer in Ice Box with his victory in the Grade 1 Florida Derby over the likes of Rule and Lentenor.  We also saw D’Funnybone do his thing at the 7 furlong distance, and while it’s always fun to watch him at work, the word on the street for now is that the Preakness would be his likely destination this May.

To be honest, there isn’t a whole lot of change from last week’s rankings.  The top 4 horses, in my opinion, appear to be a notch above the rest.  Positions 5 through 10 are where the real arguments seem to be.  There’s probably a good dozen or more runners one could consider for those spots, and certainly there will be more in the next couple of weeks.

For now, doing our best Steve Haskin impression, here’s where we stand on the matter:

  • #1 Odysseus

No surprises here.  The big red colt who began his Kentucky Derby Odyssey in relative obscurity and burst onto the scene with a heroic effort against Schoolyard Dreams in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby.  The only real question now is what they’ll do with him over the next 7 weeks.  Rumors fly around that he may be “trained up” to the Derby, although the Arkansas Derby and the Toyota Bluegrass have been mentioned as possibilities (so was the Wood at one point).  From the moment we first noticed him,  the similarities have been apparent between he and another big red colt that many of us developed strong affections for.  He could be entering the Derby even greener than Curlin was – which isn’t a good thing.  I won’t argue with those that have him ranked lower.  This is my horse, and I’m sticking with him through thick and thin.  Even if the Preakness might be a wiser, (slightly) longer term goal.

  • #2 Eskendereya

The  horse most likely to be found atop other Derby watch lists, and for good reason.  The son of Giant’s Causeway absolutely dominated competition in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes.  Two of the horses he thrashed; Ice Box and Pleasant Prince, came back to finish 1st and 2nd in the Grade 1 Florida Derby this past weekend.  The colt gives trainer Todd Pletcher arguably his best chance at a Kentucky Derby in years.  Will likely be the favorite in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3.

  • #3 Lookin at Lucky

Classy son of Smart Strike (aren’t they all?) who overcame a trip from hell to win the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park.  Oaklawn has been the launching point of numerous 3-year-olds in recent seasons, including Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2008.  Baffert’s decision to ship the colt east to get a true dirt prep race was a sure sign of confidence, and Lucky delivered on that gamble.  This colt seems to have all the tools to be a Derby winner and more.  Up next could be the Arkansas Derby on 4/10 at Oaklawn.

  • #4 Awesome Act

Impressive looking son of Awesome Again has a potential showdown brewing with fellow top contender Eskendereya in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3.  The Gotham winner trained overseas in England for much of his career and was publicly dismissed by yours truly prior to his North American debut victory.  I learned my lesson.  Hopefully anyone else that thought like me has also learned.  He’ll be up against it facing Esky and the Wood field, but this colt passes the eye test for sure and could still wind up being the best of the bunch.  He’s my 2nd favorite horse on this list (behind my obvious super-fave).  If Odysseus is my Curlin, I guess that makes Awesome Act my Hard Spun.

How awesome is Awesome Act?  Well, he’s awesome – there’s no doubt of that, but nothing can be as awesome as this:

As awesome as Awesome Act and the others are, they will never be as awesome as this.

  • #5 Ice Box

Win a Grade 1 prep race AND show that you can come off the pace doing so?  Say hello to the top 5 Ice Box.  It’s noteworthy that he was crushed by Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth, but he never really got a chance to get uncorked in that race.  If the Derby winds up with anywhere near as much speed as it looks thus far, this guy would have to be considered a player on pace alone.  He’s got one other thing working in his corner as well; trainer Nick Zito.

  • #6 Discreetly Mine

Risen star winner might be a forgotten horse by some.  He knocked off Tempted to Tapit, Drosselmeyer, and Ron the Greek in that Risen Star victory, 3 horses I consider to be decent opponents.  I continue to question whether this horse will actually want to go 10 furlongs come the first Saturday in May, but if he can, and if he can relax quite a bit, he’d suddenly be a lot more interesting.  Likely headed to the Arkansas Derby on 4/10.

  • #7 Conveyance

Someone has to get our “Rodney Dangerfield award” this week, and though he doesn’t technically fall in our rankings, he’s as good a candidate as any to nominate for getting no respect.  Of course he’s also unbeaten, which means he’s an honorary recipient of our weekly Cris Carter award for being an “all he does is win horse races” type of runner.  Baffert is reportedly keeping him on target for the Sunland Park Derby this weekend.  You might remember that race from last year thanks to a little horse named Mine That Bird.

  • #8 Sidney’s Candy

I continue to question whether this horse can get the distance – especially if seriously challenged – but at the end of the day the son of Candy Ride is the San Felipe winner and did defeat Caracortado and Interactif in that race (despite setting easy early fractions).  As I’ve said from the start, could still be any kind of horse when all is said and done.  We’ll find out more in the Santa Anita Derby on 4/3.

  • #9 Interactif

While I loved this colt’s move in the San Felipe when he came charging for Sidney’s Candy late in the race, I’m still not certain this is a legitimate Kentucky Derby horse.  So far he’s proven over turf and synthetics, and usually that bodes well for a horse’s prospects at also being versatile enough to run strongly on dirt, but wouldn’t you rather know that going into the first Saturday in May?  Stays on the list for now, but like the others has serious questions to be answered.

  • #10 Noble’s Promise

I toyed with ranking Schoolyard Dreams, Pleasant Prince, or even Caracortado here, but ultimately thought it was Noble’s Promise who deserved the ranking based on merit.  I’m troubled that the horse has a knack for finishing just behind the winners, but it’s important to note he was just a head behind the highly regarded ‘Lucky in the Rebel and just a 1/2 length behind Vale of York in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  Likely pointing to the Arkansas Derby on 4/10.

Honorable Mention:

The list of other horses we’re keeping our eye on is nearly unending, but some noteworthy names we haven’t given up on yet and would not be surprised to see move forward again would include (in no particular order):

  • Connemara
  • Schoolyard Dreams
  • Pleasant Prince
  • Dublin
  • Super Saver
  • Rule
  • Drosselmeyer
  • Jackson Bend
  • Tempted to Tapit
  • Caracortado

Up next are the Lane’s End, the Louisiana Derby, and the Sunland Derby.  Check back later in the week for coverage and selections for each race.  Until then, may the horse be with you.


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Categories : Awesome Act, Conveyance, Discreetly Mine, Eskendereya, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Ice Box, Interactif, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky, Noble's Promise, Odysseus, Sidney's Candy

Florida Derby & Swale Stakes Selections

20 03 2010

As the unstoppable procession towards the “greatest 2 minutes in sports” in the 2010 Kentucky Derby continues, we find ourselves at an important crossroads with significant Grade 1 earnings on the line in the Florida Derby.

Several horses have used the Florida Derby as an important step along the way to eventual victory on the first Saturday in May, including Big Brown (2008),  Barbaro (2006), and Monarchos (2001).  Additionally, the Grade 2 Swale Stakes will also offer an opportunity for horses in need of graded stakes earnings as they attempt to secure a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby.

Our top 10 lists have been fluctuating from week to week.  The question that remains to be answered now is who will step forward this weekend and demand that we take notice?  We’ll attempt to answer that question by looking first at the Swale Stakes.

Grade 2 Swale Stakes – Gulfstream Park Race 10  (5:45 PM ET)

The Swale Stakes isn’t one of the more glamorous Kentucky Derby prep races, as it is only contested over a distance of 7 furlongs.  Still, nine horses have entered in the $150,000 race, headlined by the Rick Dutrow trained D’funnybone; winner of the Grade 2 Hutcheson last out.  The field sets up like this:

  • #1 Here Ye Hear Ye (15/1)
  • #2 Silver Craft (15/1)
  • #3 Ibboyee (4/1)
  • #4 City Trooper (6/1)
  • #5 Fearless Cowboy (10/1)
  • #6 Dixie Band (6/1)
  • #7 D’Funnybone (6/5*)
  • #8 Gary D (12/1)
  • #9 Privilaged (20/1)

D’FUNNYBONE is deserving of the morning line favoritism.  The only time we’ve ever seen this horse turn in a sub-par race was when he was stretched out over the Santa Anita Pro Ride in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last Autumn.  At the 7 furlong distance, the son of D’wildcat (winner of the 2001 Swale Stakes) is absolutely lethal.   His typical race is to sit just off the early speed in around the 3rd position through the opening calls, and then motor out in front as the field turns for home, often pulling away in deep stretch.  This is a classy horse, and one that typically makes a fairly strong post parade impression.

From a pace standpoint, it looks like GARY D could be the horse setting the early fractions. Longshots FEARLESS COWBOY and HEAR YE HEAR YE also have shown a bit of speed in previous races, although more recently they’ve attempted to relax just a bit in the early going.  Regardless of who sets the pace, this race will be all about D’FUNNYBONE.

If you can’t stomach the 6/5 favoritism on D’FUNNYBONE, there are a couple of horses worth considering for the upset here.  Todd Pletcher sends out IBBOYEE following a 3rd place finish to D’FUNNYBONE in the Hutcheson that saw him bumped at the start of the race.  IBBOYEE fought back to finish 3rd, only beaten by 2 lengths.  This is a horse who has won 3 stakes races, but had the misfortune of running into today’s rival in the Hutcheson and the highly regarded Medaglia d’Oro colt Laus Deo in the Count Fleet (January 10).  If the son of Medalist can put it all together today, IBBOYEE rates a chance at pulling off the upset.

Another horse that looks somewhat interesting here is DIXIE BAND.  The son of Dixie Union opened his career with 3 consecutive victories, including the Grade 3 in the Arlington-Washington Futurity Stakes last September in which he beat a decent horse in Piscitelli.  The down side, of course, is that he’s been on the shelf since an extremely disappointing 10th place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (Grade 1) at Keeneland.

Obviously something went wrong that race, and while he’s been training well for this race, I think we all learned last weekend just how rusty a horse can be coming off a 5-month layoff, as we watched in disbelief as the 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra didn’t quite seem her usual lethal self in the New Orleans Ladies.  Even so, my suspicion is that this is a classy horse and that he’ll run a decent race today.

As for the rest of the field, I think HEAR YE HEAR YE and SILVER CRAFT are worth considering when filling out your trifecta and superfecta tickets. Either of them could wind up hitting the board at 15/1 and bring some much needed value to your tickets.  I’m also going to add in GARY D to my plays, just in case he does get loose on the lead.

Selections:

  • #7 D’Funnybone (6/5*)
  • #3 Ibboyee (4/1)
  • #6 Dixie Band (6/1)


Grade 1 Florida Derby – Gulfstream Park Race 11 (6:20 PM ET)

Eleven horses have entered for the featured prep race of the day, including Todd Pletcher trainee Rule, who currently sits at #5 in our most recent Kentucky Derby rankings. Due to the entry of “Barbaro’s little brother”, Lentenor, the odds on the tote board might get tilted a bit out of whack for this race, which could make it either more appealing or less appealing from a betting standpoint, depending on which way those winds end up blowing.

The field sets up like this:

  • #1 Soaring Empire (20/1)
  • #2 Lentenor (6/1)
  • #3 Pulsion (12/1)
  • #4 Pleasant Prince (15/1)
  • #5 Game On Dude (12/1)
  • #6 First Dude (8/1)
  • #7 Rule (5/2*)
  • #8 Ice Box (15/1)
  • #9 Miner’s Reserve (6/1)
  • #10  Best Actor (20/1)
  • #11  Radiohead (3/1)

RULE is the obvious horse to focus on here.  Todd Pletcher’s runaway winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes blew away a seemingly talented horse in Schoolyard Dreams last out while wiring the field going 8.5 furlongs.  Will an extra half furlong today make any difference?  Those looking to defeat the son of Roman Ruler will have to hope so.  What I’m more interested in is seeing whether Pletcher and jockey Johnny Velazquez can get the colt to relax a bit early on?  So far the Kentucky Derby contenders have no shortage of speed and pace-pressing types, so a continued front running style might put him at a disadvantage come the first Saturday in May.

If he does want the lead, RULE might find he has some company today, due primarily to the entry of MINER’S RESERVE.  Technically, RADIOHEAD is another who could be running right out of the gate, but I suspect they’ll try to relax the son of Johannesburg on the stretchout today.

Whichever way he goes, RULE is the obvious horse to beat, although evidently “the Dude abides” if you are going to take a shot and try to beat him.

Seriously, man, what’s with all the Dude named horses in here?  If you’re as big a fan of The Big Lebowski as I am, you might have to take a shot on one of them based on who makes the stronger post parade impression.  Both FIRST DUDE and GAME ON DUDE only recently graduated from the maiden ranks, although GAME ON DUDE does have experience against winners last out at the allowance level.

So what do we make of Barbaro’s brother, LENTENOR?  Barbaro did use the Florida Derby as a stage to announce his Kentucky Derby candidacy, and obviously it would be the feel-good story of the week if LENTENOR were somehow able to pull off the upset.  My sense of things is that the outpouring of affection for anything Barbaro related will cause LENTENOR’s odds to be lower than they should be.  He’s a fine horse, and I think has every right to improve in this race in his first start on dirt.  Still, he might be a horse worth rooting for, while allowing your wallet to go in a different direction.  I give him a shot to the board, personally, but I’ll be mildly (and pleasantly, mind you) surprised if he does something more.

The longshot I’m really focused on is SOARING EMPIRE at 20/1.   First of all, he’s an Empire Maker colt, and those tend to improve with each start and as the distances get longer.  Secondly, this will be the 2nd start in his form cycle since his layoff at the end of 2009.  That’s usually a time when horses can be expected to make significant improvements on the track.  I also like that he comes from off-the-pace, and thus might stand to benefit if something crazy happens at the front of the pack.  He tossed a bullet workout on March 14 in preparation for this race.  Look for a big run today from a horse offering plenty of value on the tote board.

Another off-the-pace type to keep an eye on is ICE BOX.  If you toss that last race where he ran into a monster (Esekendereya) and never really had a chance after blowing the start, this was an improving son of Pulpit for trainer Nick Zito.  As we’ve mentioned before, this Kentucky Derby crop is in need of some closers stepping forward and securing starting spots in an effort to break up the potential speed fest we have approaching.  ICE BOX has also been tossing bullet workouts in the mornings, and will be entering the equally as crucial 3rd start off of his 2009 ending layoff.  I feel this horse is better than most people may think, and he was headed in the right direction prior to the Fountain of Youth.  If he runs back to his prior form, he could be a player in here.

The chances of MINER’s REWARD might depend on what RULE does early on.  If the two engage in a speed battle early on, look for SOARING EMPIRE and ICE BOX (among others) to be the primary beneficiaries.  If, however, one or the other gets loose on the lead, well then I think we all know how dangerous they could be.  This son of Mineshaft appears to be a talented colt, having put up impressive speed figure totals in his maiden breaker last out, but he also finds himself in the disadvantageous 9 hole today, and thus might be forced to push it more than his connections would prefer from early on.

BEST ACTOR is another who put up noteworthy speed figures last out, but note that he ran into a horse in Drosselmeyer in that race who ran rather flat in his next start.  I’m not sure what to make of that performance?  He’s been on the shelf since January, although the workout tab does look enticing since then. My hunch is that he’s a notch below the top horses in here, although I did love his father, Rock Hard Ten, and would love to see him move forward.

Finally we come to RADIOHEAD.  He’s a creep.  He’s a weirdo.  What the hey is he doing here?  He don’t belong here.  Although, he does have a perfect body, and has a perfect soul.  He wants us to notice when he’s not around.  He’s so very special.  I wish I was special.

Yes, the horse with the awesome name from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile returns following an impressive allowance level victory last out here at Gulfstream, where he defeated a well thought of colt in Homeboykris.  The question for Radiohead is whether he really is a creep that doesn’t belong here?  In other words, will that “perfect body and perfect soul” allow him to get 9 furlongs on his best stuff?  We’ll have to wait and see.  The post position may not have helped the situation though, so I’m going to consider him a play against for the win honors at odds of 3/1.  If those odds trend upwards, he could be worth considering, as I do think he’s a talented colt that has a shot here – I just don’t think 3/1 matches what I’m willing to accept from a risk/reward standpoint.

Selections:

  • #7 Rule (5/2*)
  • #1 Soaring Empire (20/1)
  • #8 Ice  Box (15/1)

Best of luck to everyone – Up next will be a new edition of our Kentucky Derby rankings following this weekend’s races.


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Kentucky Derby Trail

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