Selections for Kentucky Oaks Day

29 04 2010

Derby weekend is FINALLY here!  Before we get too caught up in the actual Derby madness – there’s a fantastic card of racing for Friday to take in first.  Not only do we get the Oaks, but also 5 other stakes races as well – including the return of the defending Horse of the Year in Rachel Alexandra in the Grade 2 La Troienne (and her new nemesis, Zardana).

The weather figures to be mild for Oaks Friday, although storm clouds are expected for the Derby on Saturday.  If you’re interested in putting your opinion on the line – take a few moments to fill out our Win-Place-Show pool for the TBA over on Google Docs.  It’s a standard mythical $2 across-the-board setup with one horse in each race.

Anyhow, let’s jump right into the thick of things, shall we?

Rachel Alexandra, the defending Horse of the Year, returns against newfound nemesis Zardana in the G2 La Troienne on Friday

Race 6: Grade 2 La Troienne (1:26 PM ET) – 1 1/16 Miles

A heavyweight bout of epic proportions: Zardana vs. Rachel – Round 2!  If team Rachel tries to gun for the front again, I think they are in trouble.  There’s “speed” on the inside (#1 Be Fair), and to her outside (#5 Unrivalled Belle and #6 Distinctive Dixie).  I’d much prefer a stalk and pounce trip the way she demonstrated in the Haskell and Mother Goose last year.  This one looks like a two-horse race between Zardana and Rachel – and it will likely take all the defending Horse of the Year has to make amends.  On the plus side, she’s supposedly training better - and it’s good she has a race under he belt, but Zardana will not be intimidated and must be reckoned with in the stretch.

Selections:

  • #4 Rachel Alexandra (3/5*)
  • #3 Zardana (3/1)
  • #5 Unrivaled Belle (5/1)

Race 7: Grade 3 Kentucky Juvenile Stakes (2:10 PM ET) – 5 Furlongs

Two-year-old Juvies.  Looks like a field that has some talented runners who ran well in their debuts.  What I see here is a wealth of speed, and while I know we’re only going 5 furlongs, the feeling is that it sets up well for Lou Brissie to come from just off the battle up front and pass them all in deep stretch.  I know Twelve Pack Shelly (beyond the cool name) has the outrageous speed figure for the debut, but that  was against Laurel Park maidens, so I’ll make her beat me if I can (lord knows with a name like that she could drink me under the table anyways).

Selections:

  • #2 Lou Brissie (5/1)
  • #9 Twelve Pack Shelly (3/1)
  • #4 Weekend Wildcat (12/1)

Race 8: Grade 3 Churchill Downs Turf Sprint (3:04 PM ET) – 5 Furlongs (Turf)

Chamberlain Bridge is lethal at this distance (10 wins in 19 starts), but was handled by Silver Timber last out.  Get the feeling this one comes down to these two as well.  Longer odds horses with a shot here include Starfish Bay, Formidable, Heavenly Chorus, and Mitigation (I seldom toss any horse Alan Garcia is aboard).  Oh, and do not the presence of Garrett Gomez on #8 Barge as well.  Feels like a race I’d like to take a chance on with a longer priced horse, but I still think it comes down to the obvious 2 when all is said and done, and I’ll give the edge to Chamberlain Bridge on the slight cutback in distance.

Selections:

  • #3 Chamberlain Bridge (5/2)
  • #6 Silver Timber (2/1*)
  • #9 Formidable (12/1)

Race 9: Grade 3 Alysheba Stakes (3:54 PM ET) – 1 1/16 Miles

Hard for me to be objective here.  On the one hand my 2009 Kentucky Derby pick Friesan Fire is here, as is my old pal Bullsbay for Graham Motion.  Obviously the bull needs some pace to run at, but there’s not a lot here.  Friesan Fire , Enriched,  and Cool Coal Man could all factor into the pace equation.  Bullsbay has been off since the Clark (G2) last November, but c’mon – I can’t pick against my boy here.  Like I said, hard to be objective for me.

Selections:

  • #6 Bullsbay (6/1)
  • #4 Cool Coal Man (4/1)
  • #2 Friesan Fire (7/2*)

Race 10: Grade 2 American Turf Stakes (4:47 PM ET) – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

The story behind the scenes for the American Turf is the entry of Setsuko, who would’ve been somewhat interesting in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday following his impressive 2nd place finish behind tepid Derby favorite Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby.  Alas, while Make Music for Me  and Backtalk are in the Derby, Setsuko is here.  You may remember this guy from my initial KY Derby watch list in early February.  Two other horses I really like in this spot are Workin For Hops, who has won 3 of 4 lifetime and figures to get a decent trip if he isn’t hindered by the outside post in the 11 hole, and Doubles Partner, who could offer some value on the return to dirt with Garrett Gomez aboard.

Selections:

  • #11 Workin For Hops (12/1)
  • #6 Doubles Partner (10/1)
  • #1 Setsuko (4/1)

Race 11: Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks (5:45 PM ET) – 1 1/8 Miles

The feature race of the day may well be the best betting opportunity as well.  Most of the attention will rightly focus on Blind Luck, whom I think would make even more sense than Devil May Care in the Derby, but I digress.  That being said, there’s another horse in here I’m extremely fond of – It’s Tea Time.  I gave this horse out as my pick for the Ashland at the beginning of April during a chat on the Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds website (a great spot for horse racing fans, I might add).  I was mildly ridiculed at the time – but I suspect this daughter of Dynaformer earned some respect when she almost nailed Evening Jewel at the wire.  I know she can get the distance of the Oaks.  What I don’t know is how she’ll like the dirt?  This much is certain – she’s my favorite 3-year-old filly at the moment, so you know I’m backing her all the way.

Selections:

  • #1 It’s Tea Time (10/1)
  • #5 Blind Luck (6/5*)
  • #11 Evening Jewel (10/1)

That’ll do it for our Oaks picks – check back tomorrow afternoon/evening for our picks for each of the major races this Saturday – including the Kentucky Derby.   Best of luck to all.


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Rachel Alexandra

Alexandra the Great! Rachel Alexandra crushes the Oaks by 20 1/4 lengths!

1 05 2009

You wonder if somebody  told Rachel Alexandra? With the late scratch of Zenyatta from Friday’s Oaks card at Churchill Downs, the spotlight was squarely on her as she went to post in the 135th running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.  Roughly one minute and 49 seconds later she was cruising across the finish line in perhaps the most impressive 3-year-old filly race we’ve seen in years.  She’s no longer simply Rachel Alexandra.  With a performance like that come the never-ending accolades.  She’s now earned the title “Rachel Alexandra the Great.” 

That camera angle showing the gaping distance between Rachel Alexandra and the rest of the field brings back memories of Secretariat in the ’73 Belmont, doesn’t it?  

Results Chart

Effortless….brilliant….flawless…superb! 

Words cannot even begin to describe what she did to the field. 

Out of the gate, she tucked in just off of early pace setter Gabby’s Golden Girl, who set opening splits of :23.75 and :47.46.   Entering the turn she drew up even with Gabby’s Golden Girl when barely nudged by jockey Calvin Borel.   By the time these two entered the top of the stretch, Rachel Alexandra had struck the front, and would never look back.  Well, that last sentence is only partly true, as Borel did a little stylish looking over his shoulder while keeping her firmly held throughout the stretch.

Amazingly, she cleared the final 1/8 of a mile in 12 seconds en route to a final time of 1:48.87, and all without ever being asked for anything.   Her head held high the entire time, she opened up a veritable can of “whoop-ass” on the rest of the runners, pulling away by a final margin of 20 1/4 lengths.  That’s right, that’s not a misprint.  20 and 1/4 lengths!!!!!!!!!!!

Rachel Alexandra returned $2.60 as the heavy favorite.  Longshot Stone Legacy, who was discussed as a possibility in the pre-race handicapping selections for the Oaks, blew up the exacta as the longest combo price on the board for $58 (not bad with such a  heavy chalk out in front).  

Even better, there’s a Pick 6 carryover from Oaks day to Derby day!  That can only mean one thing….millions will be on the line tomorrow in the Pick 6 sequence that ends with the 135th Kentucky Derby.  Calling all handicappers!   :)

Getting back to “Alexandra the Great”, is anyone else already drooling at the possibility of seeing her and Zenyatta duke it out  one day?   That’s getting way ahead of ourselves, admittedly, but it’s kind of difficult not to start thinking about such things.   Just an absolutely incredible performance.  It’ll be hard for the boys to live up to this tomorrow.  The bar has been raised astronomically high by the super filly.  In fact, if she were to announce for the Preakness or the Belmont, I think she be favored off this performance.  That’s how dominating it was. 

How good is she?  In the post race interview, Borel called her “the greatest horse I’ve ever been on in my life!”

When pressed further on whether that statement  included his winning mount aboard Street Sense in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, Borel replied in more diplomatic fashion.

“She does what I want her to do and I’ve never asked her yet.  I don’t know how good she is.” 

Indeed, but one thing is absolutely certain.  In the 3-year-old filly division, there is a new queen.  Actually, make that a new goddess! And her name is Rachel Alexandra. 

All hail Alexandra the Great!


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Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta highlight Oaks Day on Friday

30 04 2009

A common recipe for success with travelling bands is to have another act “open” for you, warming up the crowd and getting them ready for the main event.  With the 2009 Kentucky Derby looming just hours away, the two best female horses in the country will take to the stage to do  a whole lot more than just open for the boys the following day.  When all is said and done, they just might be the highlight of the entire racing weekend. 

In a day filled with marquee racing, we begin by focusing our attention on the 24th running of the Grade 2 Louisville going 1 1/16 miles over the Churchill main track.  In a bit of a surprising move (to me at least), the connections of Zenyatta decided to throw racing fans a serious bone by bringing the “50 foot woman” back to kick off her 2009 5-year-old campaign right here on the Oaks day undercard.   I think I speak for every racing fan when I say “we’ll take it!”  Not since her scintillating performance in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic have we seen her race.  Six full months on the shelf resting, working, watching, and waiting.  Zenyatta doesn’t sleep…she waits!

After so much time on the shelf, you’ll forgive her if she comes out of the gate a bit rusty.  Of course she’s also travelled east away from the friendly confines of the Southern California racing circuit, where she has throttled everything they’ve thrown at her.  For some reason folks are whispering that might be an angle to take into consideration and perhaps play against her.   I think the layoff is the one and only concern with her, as we’ve seen her muscle her way through in dominating style on true dirt before in the 2008 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park.  In other words, I’ve got no worries about her on dirt.  

 

She is a bad, bad lady, and losing simply isn’t in her vocabulary.  With Curlin out of the picture in 2009, I’ve gravitated towards Zenyatta as my favorite horse in racing.   After all, she’s my slow cheetah.  :)

Even though she’ll be heavy chalk, I like her to prevail.  One Caroline will be the one she’s got to run down in the stretch, and with potential lone speed that runner could be a handful….or she could just be the next target for Zenyatta to set her sights on and devour in the stretch.   I’ll play Zenyatta over One Caroline in the exacta.   For the trifecta I’ll add in  Unbridled Belle to the place position, and then try to find a smidgen of value by adding in Swift Temper, Miss Isella,  and Modification on the bottom of the ticket in show position.

The Louisville is part of the Oaks Day Pick 6 sequence, but is not included in the late Pick 4 that ends on the feature race.   I’m not sure you can consider Zenyatta a true “free square” thanks to the layoff concern, but she’s still a solid play and obviously you can’t leave her off.  If you can afford to, I’d stretch a little and cover One Caroline just in case she gets away with easy splits out in front.  Ultimately I think Swift Temper will keep One Caroline honest and help set things up for Zenyatta to be rolling in the stretch, but just in case…well, you get the picture. 

Selections for the G2 Louisville:

$1 Trifecta:  2/4,8/ 1,3,4,6,8 = $8

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The feature race of the afternoon is the 135th running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, with 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/8 miles over the main dirt track for a total purse of $500,000.  All eyes will be on Rachel Alexandra, the filly phenom who has the horse racing world buzzing with her uber impressive 2009 campaign thus far, including victories in the Fair Ground Oaks and the Fantasy (Grade 2 races each).  She’s 3 for 3 this year and on a 4 for 4 roll going back  to late 2008.   The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro is good enough that I’m on record as saying she’d be a contender in the Derby had her connections decided to enter her there.  

 

Note:  For those of you who, like me, are not able to receive HRTV in your local viewing area, the Oaks is scheduled to be shown on Bravo as well, with a post time of 5:45PM ET.

To be fair, she’s got some competition here in the form of both Flying Spur on the outside, and Justwhistledixie to her immediate inside.  There’s also Gabby’s Golden Gal in the 4 hole with some speed, so Rachel likely won’t have as easy a time on the lead as she did in the Fair Grounds Oaks or the Fantasy.  Still, she doesn’t need the early lead to win.  I could see her sitting patiently in second if another runner wants to go lights out, and then making her move as they enter the final turn. 

Ultimately I believe rather strongly that Rachel Alexandra is the true “free square”  of the day in terms of the Pick 6 sequence (if such a thing as a “free square” can even be said to exist in horse racing, which is highly debatable at least).  I just can’t see any of these runners besting her.  Not on this big a stage.   I’ll play the chalk on top with Flying Spur and Justwhistledixie in place.  I’ll add in Gabby’s Golden Gal and Be Fair for show, as well as longshot Stone Legacy, if only because she looks like a closer and there’s ample speed in here for her to chase.

Selections for the G1 Oaks: 

$1 Trifecta:  6/ 5,8/ 2,3,4,5,8 = $8

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As for the rest of the undercard, and in particular the other races of the Pick 4 sequence that ends with Oaks in race 11, I’d say the theme should be to spread fairly deep.  I could make a case for 7 of the 12 runners in The Edgewood (race 8), and likewise could see opportunities for 7 of the 10 runners in the Grade 3 Alysheba (race 9).  Thankfully, the Grade 3 American Turf (race 10) looks a bit more formfull on paper, and I think you can dwindle it down to 3 logical contenders:  Stormalory, Battle of Hastings, and Bittel Road.   Ultimately I think you’ve got to take a stab at the Pick 4 pool thanks to the 50 cent minimum wager opportunity.   The ticket I’m considering playing looks like this at the moment:

Oaks Day $.50 Late Pick 4:

2,4,7,10/ 1,2,3,4,5,8/ 1,3,6/ 6  = $36

Best of luck to all, and of course to the jockeys, horses, and the numerous folks on the backside who help make it all happen, here’s hoping for a safe and exciting day for all.


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta


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