Preakness Day Selections

15 05 2009

It’s hard to believe that the second jewel of the Triple Crown is already upon us.  From a week that began with the Alibi Breakfast festivities, we’re now through the Black Eyed Susan, and all attention turns to the Preakness. After bringing home two chalk heavy Pick 4 plays at Pimlico Race Course on Friday, I’m jumping right back into the fray with an exhaustive look at the major races that comprise the Preakness Day card on Saturday.   A marathon of 13 races presents itself, culminating in the 134th running of the Preakness Stakes.  It’s a day that could be filled with history, as Rachel Alexandra looks to defy the odds and become the first filly to win the Preakness since Nellie Morse way back in 1924. 

Two years ago in 2007, my life changed when I watched a brilliant colt named Curlin take center stage and announce to the world that a new star was born.  Might a similarly life changing event be waiting for us just hours away?  Only time will tell.

Much like the Black Eyed Susan picks, I’ll skip the opening races on the day and instead focus on the two Pick 4 sequences.  This is in the interest of time since it’s already 9 PM here in Pennsylvania as I begin writing this.  With any luck we’ll do as good as we did Friday on Black Eyed Susan Day, only hopefully this time we’ll catch some better prices along the way. :)

Race 5:  Alw 26000 N1X (12:26 ET)

  • #2 Schleprock (4/1)
  • #7 Habitual (5/2*)
  • #11 Chancellery (9/2)

We kick things off in the early Pick 4 with a full field of 12 runners routing 1 1/16 miles over the Pimlico turf.   There’s not a lot of speed in this race, but turf races tend to come down to “cavalry charges” at the end, where the horse picking ‘em up and putting ‘em down the best in the final few jumps finds it’s way to the winner’s circle.  For that reason, I went with #2 Schleprock as the top choice.  He’s got 2 recent victories routing over the grass and is technically dropping slightly in class going from the $37k  N1X ranks down to the $26k N1X level.   With Edgar Prado in the saddle for trainer Michael Pino, this guy looks the one to beat.  #7 Habitual is actually listed at lower odds (5/2) on the morning line than Schleprock.  You have to look back a couple of races to see why, but this son of former Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos has proven to be a capable turf runner.  On his best stuff he can certainly get the job done.  #11 Chancellery will have to get things done from the outside, but he’s been improving and has run a couple of decent races in his career over the Pimlico lawn.   Another horse that warrants some attention in here is #4 Been Awhile, who took 7 chances to break his maiden, but then promptly defeated N2L claimers at first asking.  Perhaps the light bulb has switched on?

$1 Early Pick 4: 

2,7,11/ 3,9,10,11/ 8/ 3,6,7  = $36

 

Race 6: The Deputed Testamony (1:07 ET)

  • #11 Sumacha’hot (2/1)
  • #9 Belle’s Broker (6/1)
  • #3 Norjac (5/2)

Things get a bit deeper when we wade into Stakes territory with the 2nd running of The Deputed Testamony (which for some reason I always want to type as “the Disputed Testimony“), a 1 1/16 mile race over the Pimlico main track.  #11 Sumacha’hot would be a much stronger play if he hadn’t drawn such an outside post position.  As such, and despite his very usable dirt form in recent history, you’ve got to include other runners on the Pick 4 ticket here.  #9 Belle’s Broker has the look of a horse who may get overlooked on the tote board.  He definitely knows how to find the winner’s circle, and he’s run pretty well at both this distance and on the local track.  He was favored last out before being checked, which may have cost him the race.  A bounce back effort puts him right in contention today.  #3 Norjac must answer questions regarding his ability to stretch out and get the distance of the Deputed Testamony, but if is able to handle the chore, than he’s clearly a player as well.  Two other horses I think warrant consideration in here are #10 Furrariat, who might be ready for a breakout performance, and the speedy inside runner, #1  Out to Please.  Ultimately I didn’t think the inside speed runner “classed up” on paper enough to include in the Pick 4, but I wouldn’t count him out of the single race exotics.  Of course, I could also make a bit of a case for #3 Take Down Two getting Garrett Gomez in the saddle, so this might be a good race to spread fairly deep.  #7 Court Bland will be charging late, and has a decent chance to hit the bottom of the Trifecta and Superfecta.

 

Race 7:  The Grade 3 Gallorette (1:55 ET)

  • #8 Dynaforce (4/5*)
  • #2 All Is Vanity (9/2)
  • #3 Shytoe Lafeet (10/1)

We move into graded stakes territory with the 58th running of the Grade 3 Gallorette, going 1 1/16 miles over the turf.  #8 Dynaforce is the main attraction of this event, coming off a disappointing 8th (though only beaten by 4 lengths) in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf last October at Santa Anita to the super talented Forever Together.  This looks like a good spot for her to make his 2009 debut, as she’s the only runner of the field that can boast at having cracked the 100 Beyer Speed Figure threshold.  That being said, she’ll still need to bring his top stuff to prevail.  As a previous Grade 1 winner, she’s clearly the class of the field.  What handicappers must determine is if they are willing to trust that class off the long layoff and bravely single, or if they think a couple of other runners might have a chance to pull off the upset.  Obviously, based on my Pick 4 play a few races above, I’m going to be brave and trust that class edge, but you won’t hear me argue with those who feel otherwise….and their just might be some juicy value to be had for those who do attempt to beat the chalk.  #2 All is Vanity looks like the filly with the best chance to “class up” against Dynaforce in here.  She used a wide post position to put in a game run against Raw Silk in the South Beach back in April, and could move forward off that effort.  #3 Shytoe Lafeet is my longshot bomb chance for this race.  For one thing, I’m always fond of the Larry Jones/Gabriel Saez combo, especially with fillies and mares.  What’s more, this is a runner who has had excuses in each of the past two races.  I’m guessing that with a name like Shytoe Lafeet, all of the foot fetish folks out there in the world will be all over this runner.  If you toss those efforts, she’s got a little something under the hood and looks like a player in here to me.  Another horse I’d strongly consider using in the single race exotics is #5 Quiet Meadow.

 

Race 8:  The Grade 3 Hirsch Jacobs (2:35 ET)

  • #6 Despite the Odds (9/2)
  • #3 Not for Silver (8/1)
  • #7 Nuclear Wayne (4/1)

I actually had a chance to cover the 34th running of The Hirsch Jacobs over at Case The Race earlier this weekend.  I’m still sticking with my picks there.  I think this race has all kinds of speed, and the two horses that leap off the page to me are those from the white hot Michael Trombetta barn.  #6 Despite the Odds looks to be the better of the two, and is an improving son of champion sprinter Speightstown.  #3 Not for Silver is no slouch himself, and really I could see either of these guys passing the pace setters in the lane to score.  Another runner who could offer some value, despite being  only 4/1 on the morning line is #7 Nuclear Wayne, a fast improving son of Mineshaft.  Of the speed types, #1 Taqarub makes the most sense to me, but like I said, I’ll be playing against the speed here.

 

Race 9: The Woodlawn (3:44 ET)

  • #8 Affirmatif (3/5*)
  • #4 Beacon Hill Road (6/1)
  • #5 Colonel Rutledge (10/1)

The Late Pick 4 sequence begins with the 44th running of The Woodlawn.  We’ve got a field of ten three-year-olds going 1 mile over the turf .  #8 Affirmatif is the most intriguing of the field, despite this being only his 3rd career start.  The son of Unbridled’s Song is listed at extremely low odds of 3/5 on the morning line, but appears a worthy favorite on paper.  He’ll likely press the pace early on and then make his move before the field enters the final turn.  If he’s as good as he looks on paper, the race could be over right there.  #4 Beacon Hill Road was a mediocre looking runner until switched to the Jason Servis barn, where he’s promptly run his best career efforts in back to back stakes races.  A similar effort could put him right where he needs to be should Affirmatif fail to fire.  My longshot pick for the race is #5 Colonel Rutledge.  Not only do I love a good martial sounding name in a colt, but this one goes out for one of my favorite trainers, Graham Motion.  It’s hard to figure out based on his limited past performance profile if he’s a better dirt runner or turf runner.  He owns a win over the grass, but his better speed figures have been over the dirt.  I’m guessing that he’s an improved horse since that first turf effort.  That should show up on Saturday.  Another horse you’ve got to consider using is #1 Heros Image, who might be force to go quickly early on by virtue of breaking from the rail. 

$1 Late Pick 4: 

4,8/ 5,7,8/ 1,3,4/ 7,9,13 = $54

 

Race 10:  The Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap (4:30 ET)

  • #8 Ravalo (3/1)
  • #5 Ah Day (5/2*)
  • #7 Celtic Innis (10/1)

Speed is the name of the game in the 23rd running of the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap, and #8 Ravalo has it.  True, his last two efforts at Aqueduct and Keeneland have left quite a bit to be desired, but this gelding has won an impressive 8 of 16 races at today’s 6 furlong distance.  I don’t think that can be ignored.  He’s breaking from the outside ,but should be able to get the lead and then shift over to save ground.  Speed tends to hold quite well at Pimlico, so he should be a force if he does indeed get loose up front.  #5 Ah Day shocked me by being 5/2 on the morning line.  I would have thought his recent darkened form trying to stretch out further might have increased his value.  Now we’ll be at the mercy of horseplayers to determine what price he actually goes to post as.  He should relish the distance change, and with Garrett Gomez in the saddle, this son of Malibu Moon could be quite a force for trainer King Leatherbury.  #7 Celtic Innis is another runner who seems to thrive at the 6 furlong idstance, and has done especially well at Pimlico over his career.  He’s been on the shelf since January, but at 7-years-old  it could be that he just needed to get his legs back underneath him.   Another runner that did not make my final selections that gives me some pause is #5 Torpedo Run, who exits 3 consecutive victories.  He’ll probably be the guy I’m sweating out the most if I do indeed leave him off the late Pick 4.

 

Race 11: The Grade 2 Dixie (5:13 PM)

  • #4 Kiss the Kid (5/1)
  • #1 Proudinsky (5/2*)
  • #3 Parading (9/2)

Ah, the Dixie…such memories.  It was in this race last year that my Pick 6 dreams came to a crashing halt when longshot Pays to Dream upset the late Shakis and others, and my despair was forever captured on film (that’s me in the yellow hat in that picture right next to the finish line).  Time for some redemption, and what do you know, the gods of horse racing have seen fit to provide me with a Lemon Drop to get the job done!  You know I love me some Lemon Drops!  #4 Kiss the Kid exits two strong Beyer performances, in cluding a win in the Grade 3 Appleton in March.  The victory was his third in 4 starts, having only been defeated by Kip Deville in that sequence.  Kip Deville is one of the finest turf runners in North America, and while this field is deep, it doesn’t have any true monsters like him.  #1 Proudinksy is a guy I never leave ff my tickets.  He ran on Derby day against Einstein, Cowboy Cal, and Court Vision in the Grade 1 Turf Classic, and comes right back two weeks later for trainer Bobby Frankel.  He’s always a threat on his top stuff, and the 1 1/8 mile distance of the Dixie seems to be his strong suit.  #3 Parading is likely the pace setter of the race, and could be handful if he’s allowed to gets too easy a lead.  There are others in here with designs on pressing that pace a bit, but his newfound early speed style should suit him very well.  #2 Monba and #8 Strike a Deal are also runners worth considering here.   Hopefully I won’t make it two years in a row being knocked out in the Dixie. 

 

Race 12: The Grade 1 Preakness (6:15 ET)

  • #13 Rachel Alexandra (8/5*)
  • #9 Pioneer of the Nile (5/1)
  • #7 Papa Clem(12/1)

So it all comes down to this.  The 134th running of  The Preakness.  Over 80 years of history are on the line!  Can Rachel Alexandra repeat the brilliance she demonstrated in the Kentucky Oaks two weeks ago?  Clearly the stakes have risen, and she finds herself in the deepest field she’s yet seen.  She’s drawn the outside, and will likely have to gun it from the start in order to save ground going into the first turn.  #1 Big Drama to the extreme inside also figures to be on the gas early on, creating a situation that might be ripe for the next flight of colts coming home.  That should include the group that finished 2, 3, 4 in the Kentucky Derby;  #9 Pioneer of the Nile, #7 Papa Clem, and #3 Musket Man.   Much has been made of Pioneer of the Nile either being of questionable quality or potentially “sitting on a big one.”  I tend to believe the latter of the two.  If not for that brilliant move by Calvin Borel to find the rail with Mine That Bird, Pioneer might have been Derby champion.  He should get a firmer surface to run over, and he looms the biggest threat to Queen Rachel’s attempt to achieve eternal glory.  The horse that I think is being most overlooked here is #7 Papa Clem.  What exactly did this guy do to deserve being ranked so low at 12/1?  Was he not less than a length behind Pioneer of the Nile?  He’ll be my longshot play, for sure.  I’m not really sure what to make of #5 Friesan Fire.   I probably gave him the “kiss of death” by making him my last minute Kentucky Derby selection just hours before the run for the roses (after the late scratch of I Want Revenge), and having met Larry Jones at the Alibi Breakfast, I can’t stomach being responsible for another miserable performance, so he shall be the official “horse I shall not speak of” for this race.   Truth be told, I think he’s a sneaky threat if he has indeed healed….I’m just not going to name him in my picks.  #3 Musket Man is a horse that has really earned my respect over the Triple Crown campaign, and I could see him getting back up into the money again on Saturday.   As for the longer shots on the board, call me crazy but Take the Points at 30/1 looks very intriguing.   What to make of Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird?  Well, you’ll never hear me disrsepect that horse again.  I’ve learned my lesson.  It’s just that without jockey Calvin Borel, and without the cool, damp climate that he seemed to thrive in so perfectly two weeks ago, I’m going to play againts him.  Besides,  all of that glorious value that made him famous in the Derby will now be gone thanks to being a household name.   I’ll be there to cheer for Rachel Alexandra, but I think she might be up against it, which is why I’m ultimately going to cover Pioneer and Papa Clem as well on the Pick 4.  

Preakness Selections:

  • $20 Win #7 Papa Clem
  • $1 Trifecta:  13/5,7,9/1,2,3,5,7,9,11 = $18

 

Best of luck to everyone.  I’ll likely be “tweeting” along with the action from the Turfside Terrace.  If you caught the action today on Black Eyed Susan Day, I was giving out paddock picks and other useful tips.  Needless to say my access to the paddock is non existant when I’m across the track in the Turfside Terrace, but I’ll be in prime position to watch the Preakness runners saddle.   You can follow along if you like from the link below:

http://twitter.com/kdawg68

Riders up!  :)


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Categories : Friesan Fire, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Papa Clem, Pimlico, Pioneer of the Nile, Preakness, Rachel Alexandra, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Alibi Breakfast recap

14 05 2009

“Preakness Thursday” can mean only one thing if you’re in the Baltimore area, and that’s the annual Alibi breakfast at Pimlico Race Course.  A tradition going back to the 1930′s, the Alibi breakfast is one of the best kept secrets of thoroughbred racing’s 2nd leg of the Triple Crown.  Owners, trainers, dignitaries, and fans gather to honor those who have made contributions to the racing industry, as well as to stir things up with some juicy talk about the upcoming Preakness.  For yours truly, it’s the one opportunity of the year to rub elbows with some of the bigger names in the sport, and attempt to learn inside information about the race that is the focal point of my entire year.

A poster showcasing the 2009 Preakness contenders from the Alibi Breakfast at Pimlico.

A poster showcasing the 2009 Preakness contenders from the Alibi Breakfast at Pimlico.

First things first, I was not able to fulfill priority #1, which was to meet “Team Rachel.”  Jess Jackson did not appear to be in attendance, nor was trainer Steve Asmussen.  Instead, assistant trainer Scott Blasi stood in for them.  While he may not be as well known from a household name perspective, he was the unsung hero behind the success of Curlin in ’07 and ’08.  He mentioned that the filly has looked amazing since he’d been with her and that they can’t wait to run her.  In a light hearted moment (the Alibi breakfast being filled with such moments), he answered a question concerning her outside post position in the 13 hole by saying “I just hope Calvin doesn’t forget where he is on the track and try to skim the outside rail.” 

One related piece of information that fans of Curlin will enjoy hearing is that yes, Pancho, the horse that travelled the globe with the 2007/2008 Horse of the Year has made the journey to Baltimore to be with Rachel Alexandra.  That can only be interpreted as a positive sign, as Pancho is highly regarded for having a calming effect on horses under his watch.  To many, Pancho is just as beloved as Curlin, which is really saying something for a horse that has gone almost completely unnoticed to the general public.   He’s a silent hero type.  Blasi mentioned during his speech that the connections of Rachel Alexandra do worry a bit about what might spook her or cause her to stress a bit.  With Pancho by her side, those fears have to be greatly reduced.  He’s a special horse in his own right, and his presence with Rachel makes me feel extremely good about her chances of running big on this, her biggest stage.

The table setting for the filly Rachel Alexandra at the 2009 Alibi Breakfast

The table setting for the filly Rachel Alexandra at the 2009 Alibi Breakfast

 

Assitant Trainer of Rachel Alexandra, Scott Blasi takes in the Alibi Breakfast in this rather unflattering photo.

Assitant Trainer of Rachel Alexandra, Scott Blasi takes in the Alibi Breakfast in this rather unflattering photo.

As for the big names in attendance, there were plenty.  Larry Jones was there to represent his colt Friesan Fire, who he said had many wounds from the Derby (his exact words were that some were inflicted by other horses while others were self inflicted).  He joked that he never expected the colt to run the worst race of his career on the big stage that is the Kentucky Derby (Friesan Fire finished next to last, beaten by over 40 lengths), but he appears healed up and ready to go.   Immediately after the ceremony, he was kind enough to give an autograph to my wife, which only enhances my high opinion of the man.  It’ll be a tremendous loss for the sport when he retires after this year.   As for the chances of facing the super filly, he mentioned that he had a filly who finished 19 lengths behind Rachel Alexandra earlier in the year, and that after the Oaks he thought to himself that 19 lengths really wasn’t so bad when up against Rachel.  For the record, I didn’t have the stomach to confess to Mr. Jones that it was my fault that Friesan Fire had run so terribly in the Derby, having anointed him as my pick  after learning of the scratch of I Want Revenge.

Perhaps the most amazing moment of the day for us was that we stood in the breakfast buffet line with the connections of Kentucky Derby shocker Mine That Bird, including trainer Chip Woolley Jr.   In fact, at one point Amy even tapped him on the shoulder and warned him that it looked like his wallet was about to fall out of his back pocket.  I’ve got to say, Mine That Bird’s connections cast quite the appearance, with their tall Texan cowboy hats, and they were consummate gentlemen.  During the ceremony, Woolley joked that he was unaccustomed to police escorts upon arriving to town, and mentioned that “the last time the cops were behind me, I went to jail.”  He also expanded upon his comments after the Derby indicating that he felt strongly that Mine That Bird’s victory was a “win for the little guys” around the world, and that while they were sad to lose jockey Calvin Borel to Rachel Alexandra, they were quite pleased to pick up the services of Hall of Famer Michael Smith.  

I must confess here that while I was not a very big Mine That Bird fan going into the Preakness, it would be something else to see these guys win.  They were arguably the most down to earth and easily approachable of those connected to the Preakness runners.  You can tell they are still beaming with pride, as Woolley signed our program with a big “KD 135″ under his name.  Yes indeed, Derby 135 shall always be theirs to savor.

Bennie "Chip" Woolley Jr., trainer of 2009 Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird

Bennie "Chip" Woolley Jr., trainer of 2009 Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird

Moving on, Gary Stute gave a heartfelt speech about how he had invited his father to see Papa Clem in the Preakness, as he worried this might be his last chance to do so.  Papa Clem is named after racing legend Clement Hirsch. Stute’s father is apparently not in the greatest of health.  He joked that he “insisted” his family come to see Papa Clem run in the Preakness, but that he had done so before he knew they were up against the filly.  On a side note, when first driving past the backside of Pimlico on our way in this morning, I saw Papa Clem galloping about (from the window of our moving car, mind you), and I thought he looked fantastic.   Personally, I think Papa Clem is being totally disrespected on the morning line at 12/1 (let me condition that by saying that yes, I understand that’s not the odds maker’s actual opinion and that it’s really just his prediction of how the betting public will wind up).  If the public does send this horse out at 12/1,  I think it’s a huge mistake.  Although it’s one I’ll try to capitalize on at the betting windows.

The moment that will probably stick out the most to those in attendance were the interviews with trainers Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas.   Baffert indicated that he thought Pioneer of the Nile would get a good trip stalking behind the early pacesetters (assuming Big Drama goes from the 1 hole and that Rachel goes as well from the outside).   He also mentioned that he tried to purchase Rachel Alexandra at one point but that he was “too cheap” and couldn’t afford the hefty price tag.   He said that as a fan he was blown away by her performance in the Oaks.  Garrett Gomez will be aboard Pioneer of the Nile, and he looks to be one that could be sitting on a big performance.   I mentioned this on Facebook last evening, but there can’t be any doubt that he’ll be a part of the finish.  At 5/1 he’ll probably be the second choice when they go to post.  Baffert also mentioned that he went into the post draw hoping for the 9, 10, or 11 hole, and being as that they got the  9 hole with speed on both sides, he thought they were in good spot.

Lukas was the absolute highlight of the morning.  He started by discussing his two 50-1 longshots, Luv Gov and Flying Private.  He asked Woolley and the Mine That Bird connections for some advice on how to get things done at 50/1.  Then he offered that Luv Gov was named for former Governor Elliot Spitzer of New York, and joked that he had another filly named 9th Client.  In the end he said that he didn’t have any delusions of upsetting this field with a 50/1 longshot, but that he’s been in racing long enough to know that if you have horses that you think belong in the race, you might as well run them.  

An interesting tidbit for folks who are fond of Musket Man, for owners Eric Fein & Vic Carlson.  Mr. Carlson mentioned that while he likes his horses chances, he’d “probably be betting on him to show” against this field.  He also mentioned that his girlfriend (as a side note, Mr. Carlson and I seem to have a similar taste in women…just sayin’) advised that her lucky number was 3, so they feel good about the post position.  Personally I like this horse quite a bit.  It’s kind of hard to separate him, Pioneer of the Nile, and Papa Clem because they finished so close in the Derby.   He seems like a fighter though.  Plus, I love hearing his trainer, Derek Ryan, talk prior to races.  Sadly, I did not see him in attendance as I was hoping to get to meet him as well.

As for the rest of the field, the consensus seemed to be that Big Drama would be forced to go quickly from the inside post position.  A little birdie happened to mention to me that Big Drama has looked very impressive in their opinion while working out at Pimlico.  I know, I know, he wasn’t one of the horses I was going to play either, but just remember that last year the juicy piece of information I received from the Alibi breakfast was that Macho Again looked much better in training than his odds suggested.  I’m just throwing that out there (note, that juicy tidbit about Macho Agian is in the comments section of the post I’ve hyperlinked to from last year).

It also remains impossible to root against a horse like General Quarters and his trainer Thomas McCarthy.  By the way, in an interesting fact I had not heard before, it was revealed that McCarthy actually taught former NBA great Wes Unseld in High School back in Kentucky.  Unseld of course has deep Baltimore connections having coached the Washington Wizards (technically then known as the Washington Bullets) for years.

Lastly, if you’re looking to play a local angle, than consider that M&D Stables, who are sending out longshot Tone it Down (3rd in the Federico Tesio on May 2), are a Maryland operation through and through….right down to their silks, which are fashioned in the spirit of the Maryland flag.   Kent Desormeaux will be aboard Tone it Down, the same man who rode Big Brown to victory so brilliantly last year in the Preakness.

Overall, we wound up meeting, talking to, and getting autographs from ”Chip” Woolley Jr., D. Wayne Lukas, Larry Jones, Vic Carlson, and the connections to Tone it Down.  We also ran into some of the NTRA staff that I was privileged enough to meet last fall at the NTRA marketing summit in Las Vegas (and to my surprise, they remembered who I was – even remembered my name!).  Along the way we also managed to consume several Black Eyed Susans, making us the proud owners of 4 of the prized collector’s item Preakness glasses.  We would’ve made out with more, but that was all we could carry.

 

Autographs from trainer "Chip" Woolley (Mine That Bird), Larry Jones (Friesan Fire), D. Wayne Lukas (Flying Private and Luv Gov), owner Vic Carlson (Musket Man), and one of the connections to local entry Tone it Down

Autographs from trainer "Chip" Woolley (Mine That Bird), Larry Jones (Friesan Fire), D. Wayne Lukas (Flying Private and Luv Gov), owner Vic Carlson (Musket Man), and one of the connections to local entry Tone it Down

Prized collector's items - the official 2009 Preakness glasses.

Prized collector's items - the official 2009 Preakness glasses.

I also want to give a HUGE shout out to our friends Tex and Cindy from over at horseracing.about.com.   Without them, Amy and I would likely have never even attempted to take in an Alibi breakfast, and what an experience we’d have missed.   One final parting shout out here to Carrie Everly, the VP of Marketing for the Maryland Jockey Club.  I don’t know that I’ve ever met a host who makes us feel more welcomed anywhere in the world.  She goes out of her way to make us feel like we belong.  Carrie, if you’re reading this, please know how much we appreciate you.  The MJC is lucky to have a person like you in their employ. 

Alright….now I just need to rest off those Black Eyed Susans and get to handicapping.  I’ll be back later tonight with a full lineup of picks for tomorrow’s races on, what else, Black Eyed Susan day!  :)


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Categories : Friesan Fire, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Mine That Bird, Papa Clem, Pimlico, Pioneer of the Nile, Preakness, Rachel Alexandra, Triple Crown Coverage

I Want Revenge scratched from the Kentucky Derby

2 05 2009

Waking up this morning I expected the euphoria surrounding Rachel Alexandra’s performance in the Oaks to still be the story on everyone’s lips.  Instead now we’ve got the scratch of the Derby favorite, I Want Revenge, on Derby morning of all days, to contend with.

http://blog-beb.thoroughbredtimes.com/2009/05/i-want-revenge-scratches-from-kentucky.html

Reportedly, it’s due to ankle swelling/lameness.  Wow.  Just when it looked like things were getting better, now we’ve lost the morning line favorite on Derby morning.  Unbelievable.  And literally just hours from when I made him our top selection.  I must be the absolute kiss of death.  My heart goes out to jockey Joe Talamo, who I’m sure thought he had  a huge chance to fulfill the dream of winning a Kentucky Derby. 

I’m starting to feel personally responsible for Curlin’s “trip from hell” in the ’07 Derby.  That makes 3 straight top choices for  me that have either run their worst races (Curlin in ’07 and Colonel John in “08), or have not even made it to post (I Want Revenge….and I suppose you could add to that Quality Road, who was my top choice entering the week).  That’s two top choices for the Derby I’ve lost on freakin’ Derby week!   I’m almost scared to name a new choice.

Since I must though, I shall. 

Friesan Fire…let’s send Larry Jones out a champion.  I’m torn between him, Dunkirk, and Pioneer of the Nile, but that’s where I’ll wind up.  There is no better tandem, for my money, with three-year-olds than Larry Jones and Gabriel Saez.  Go baby, go!  :)

So what else do we do?  Well, I guess you can upgrade Pioneer of  the Nile significantly, considering he’d defeated I Want Revenge on the synthetics.  I think Papa Clem becomes more of a player now at long odds as well.  I’d spread now to cover that one in the exotics, along with Friesan Fire, Dunkirk, and Pioneer. 

Looking  on the positive side of things.  Supporters of Friesan Fire, Pioneer of the Nile, Dunkirk, Papa Clem, Desert Party, Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy, and Regal Ransom (I think that covers the selections I’ve seen out there) just got one less potentially world class foe to deal with, adding to the likes of Quality Road, The Pamplemousse, Old Fashioned,  and Square Eddie, just to name a few.  And of course, now we know for certain that the top 3-year-old in the country ran yesterday in the Oaks.  That’s got to make things a bit easier for them.

But seriously…can this be “it?”  Can we not have any more setbacks? 

The picks of many are in chaos.  Hopefully we can salvage some value out of that chaos and capitalize on the instability of opinions.


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby, Papa Clem, Pioneer of the Nile, Triple Crown

Old Fashioned favored in Arkansas Derby rematch with Win Willy

10 04 2009

When last we saw them, Win Willy was surging past Old Fashioned in the stretch to win by 2 1/2 lengths in the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park.  This Saturday the two will square off again along with 8 other contenders in the 73rd running of the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, which will be televised nationally on ESPN2 at 5:41 CT.  The field sets up like this:

Past Performances available here

  1. Captain Cherokee (A. Gryder/ S. Asmussen) 20/1
  2. Papa Clem (R. Bejarano/ G. Stute) 6/1
  3. Flat Out (J. Garcia/ C. Dickey) 10/1
  4. Poltergeist (Q. Hamilton/ D. Van Hemel) 20/1
  5. Ziegfeld (J. Court/ D. Romans) 12/1
  6. Flying Private (I. Ocampo/ D. Wayne Lukas) 6/1
  7. Summer Bird (C. Rosier/ T. Ice) 30/1
  8. Old Fashioned (T. Thompson/ L. Jones) 9/5*
  9. Win Willy (M. Berry/ M. Robertson) 7/2
  10.  Danger to Society (C. Velasquez/ R. Dutrow) 6/1

The Rebel was characterized by a speedy pace set by Silver City, which likely cost the Larry Jones trainee Old Fashioned in the stretch as Win Willy was able to overcome him and pull the upset.  The pace of the Arkansas Derby should be a bit slower.  Coupled with the added half furlong of ground, this one should set up nicely for Old Fashioned.  After all, not long ago he was a popular favorite on many power rankings for the 2009 Kentucky Derby. 

 

Jones will almost certainly have Old Fashioned attempt to relax more this weekend.  He’s removed highly acclaimed jockey Ramon Dominguez in favor of jockey T.J. Thompson.   The two have combined for a 23% success rate over the last year in 176 races, so clearly they know how to get the job done.  While the speedy Silver City is obviously not here this weekend, we do get another likely pace setter in the form of Papa Clem, an eye appealing son of Smart Strike out of the Gary Stute barn. 

Silver City went the opening half mile of the Rebel in :46 flat.  The likely pace for the Arkansas Derby should be considerably slower.  I don’t think it’ll be as slow as Papa Clem got away with in the slop during the Louisiana Derby, but I doubt he pushes it hard enough to go sub :47 over the opening half mile.  Old Fashioned will likely tuck in behind Papa Clem and look to get the jump on him turning for home.  

Win Willy’s victories have all been against quick opening fractions, so if he’s to catch Old Fashioned and Papa Clem he’ll likely need them to be going at it a bit early on.   I will say this about ‘Willy – I thought his late move in the Rebel was one of the more powerful I’ve seen all year.   As a son of 2001 Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos, the colt sold for just $25,000 at the September, 2007 Keeneland auction sale, and finds himself now competing (and in the case of the Rebel, winning) against horses who cost over ten times that much when originally purchased.   I like this horse quite a bit and have been aggressively ranking him in my own Derby power rankings, but it doesn’t look like this race sets up his way on paper.  I expect him to be flying late, but this one really looks like Old Fashioned’s to lose. 

An interesting x-factor for this race is the Danger to Society, who makes his inaugural start for much maligned trainer Rick Dutrow.  We’ve been waiting to see this guy all Spring, and admittedly he’s a horse I took a flyer on in the Road to the Roses challenge.  He seems to have been working fairly well leading up to this, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him cranked and ready to roll for Dutrow on first asking.  He definitely offers value to those who refuse to eat chalk in this one. 

I’ll likely let odds determine the final play in this one, as I’m hesitant to swallow too much chalk myself here on Old Fashioned, especially considering how fond I am of Win Willy.   Looking over the past performances here the night before the race,  I am inclined to make Old Fashioned the top pick.   I’ll play Papa Clem, Danger to Society, and Win Willy in place.   Add in Poltergeist and Flying Private for show, with Captain Cherokee and Flat Out on the bottom of the Superfecta.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #8 Old Fashioned
  • $.10 Superfecta:  8/2,9,10/2,4,6,9,10/1,2,3,4,6,9,10 ($6.00)

Best of luck to all!


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Old Fashioned

Win Willy defeats Old Fashioned in a Rebel shocker

14 03 2009

 

Every so often the game of thoroughbred horse racing reminds you that there is a reason they run the races and don’t simply award purse money based on who looks the most formidable on paper.  This Saturday at Oaklawn Park, the near consensus top selection at the moment for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, Old Fashioned, was upset by 50-1 longshot Win Willy in the (G2) Rebel. 

Results Chart

So what happened?   Well, in my opinion he simply got too close to a hot early pace.  After starting the race out in front, Ramon Dominguez allowed John Court and Silver City to set the early pace, and that they did ripping off splits of :22.54 and :46.07. 

Midway through the turn, Old Fashioned took the lead after an opening 3/4 of a mile in 1:11.67.  Entering the stretch it looked like it might be smooth sailing for the Larry Jones trained colt,  as he had opened up a 2 length advantage over Silver City. 

However, what you can  see by looking closely towards the rear of the pack in the replay above (pay special attention at the 1:19 – 1:22 mark) is that Win Willy was absolutely blowing past rivals on his last-to-first move.  At the top of the stretch Win Willy was hung a bit wide but continued to explode down the center of the track.

Suddenly it became clear that Old Fashioned was in hot water.  In a race that reminded me very much of the thrilling finish to the 2007 Preakness, Old Fashioned tried desperately to hold on begging for the wire, but ultimately came up short as Win Willy surged past him for the upset of the day.  A valiant effort indeed on the part of Old Fashioned, but he is now undefeated no more.

Win Willy crossed the wire in 1:44.41 and returned $115.60 for the win.  So much for obvious selections, huh? 

A closer look at Win Willy reveals that perhaps we should not have allowed him to get away at such generous odds.  The colt is clearly improving (well, clearly with the benefit of hindsight, that is), and was sired by Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos.  Now that he’s shown he can close into a swift pace going a route of ground, there’s reason to suspect today’s performance was not a fluke. 

So now what becomes of the ubiquitous Derby lists that abound on the blogosphere?  Well, I’ll take first crack at a revamped top 10 in light of all the happenings this weekend.

  1. Friesan Fire – welcome to the top of the mountain to Larry Jones “other” colt.
  2. The Pamplemousse – seems to be the A-horse of the California circuit
  3. Dunkirk - now becomes the horse who must live up to the hype
  4. Old Fashioned – can’t drop him too far off that performance in the Rebel
  5. Pioneer of the Nile – showdown looming with The Pamplemousse in April.
  6. I Want Revenge – dominating 8 length win in the Gotham has his stock rising
  7. Chocolate Candy – interested to see where this runner winds up next.
  8. Quality Road -  FOY winner will need to continue to step forward
  9. Musket Man - won a thriller in the TB Derby
  10. Win Willy – knock off the #1 seed and you earn yourself a seat at the table.

If you’re playing along in the Road to the Roses challenge, you’ll be able to add up to 3 additional runners to your stable this week starting on Monday.  Dunkirk, The Pamplemousse, and I Want Revenge will likely be my additions. 


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Old Fashioned

Friesan Fire crushes the Louisiana Derby

14 03 2009

 

Going into Saturday’s prep races, many horseplayers (myself included) would’ve confidently listed Old Fashioned as trainer Larry Jones top colt on the Kentucky Derby trail.  After Friesan Fire’s impressive victory in the $600,000 Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, I’m not so certain that’s the case anymore.

Results Chart

The combination of Friesan Fire’s dominating victory in the Louisiana Derby and Old Fashioned’s stunning defeat in the Rebel, the Derby lists of horseplayers all over the country are going to get quite a shakeup.  Adding to the confusion will be that the highly regarded Rick Dutrow colt Patena and the Ralph Nicks trained Flying Pegasus did not run particularly impressive races in the Louisiana Derby.  They figure to be desperate for graded stakes earnings if they are still being pointed towards the Kentucky Derby this May.  If Patena doesn’t make it in for IEAH Stables, might that put more focus back on a runner like Stardom Bound?  It’s possible. 

Papa Clem, the California shipper who was rumored to have been a bit unhappy after arriving in Louisiana, was the early pace setter.  Friesan Fire tracked early on along with Flying Pegasus and Soul Warrior.  Just after the opening quarter in :24.12, jockey Gabriel Saez moved Friesan Fire into 2nd position behind Papa Clem.  Papa Clem continued to lead through the opening half-mile in :48.75, but Friesan Fire was already gaining ground with every step. 

Saez was patient with Friesan Fire, only firing to the lead once in the stretch.  Suddenly he was opening up an ever widening gap behind himself and the rapidly fading Papa Clem, who was coming back to the rest of the field.  It was never in doubt for a moment once the real running began. 

The winning time for Friesan Fire in the 1 1/16 Mile Louisiana Derby was 1:43.46.  Friesan Fire returned $6.40 to his supporters for the win.

The impressive performance boosts Friesan Fire’s lifetime earnings to over $600,000 with over $500,00 of that total in the form of all important graded stakes earnings.  He’s essentially a lock as of right now for the Kentucky Derby this May.   The win also allowed  the son of A.P. Indy (Seattle Slew) to complete the sweep of the LeComte (Grade 3) and the Risen Star (Grade 3) to go along with the Louisiana Derby.

If America is looking for a new Derby favorite….why not this guy?  He’s becoming the Chris Carter of the 3-year-old division.  All he does is win races.  And he’s improving.  Perhaps it’s high time he’s earned a respected position amongst the Derby contenders. 

Hats off to Larry Jones and Gabriel Saez.  If I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again – the most formidable human connection battery in the U.S. when it comes to 3-year-old  stakes races.  I was lucky enough to have each of them in the Road to the Roses fantasy challenge. 

Will we see Friesan Fire again before the Kentucky Derby?  I’m not so sure.  Jones is a patient fellow and may prefer to take his time now that his entry is assured.  I’d expect him to ship well in advance of the Derby to get some works in over the track at Churchill.  He trained extremely well at Fair Grounds prior to his recent victories.  If  he shows signs of taking to the Churchill dirt, he will warrant serious attention in the Derby. 

It’s also worth noting that while Papa Clem was fading late, he did manage to hold on for place, which means that the two recent California shippers that had recent experience against Pioneer of the Nile have run 1, 2 in the Gotham and the Louisiana Derby, respectively.


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Categories : Fair Grounds, Friesan Fire, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail

Old Fashioned the obvious choice for the Rebel

13 03 2009

It wasn’t that long ago that I was falling madly in love with a chestnut colt running  in the Rebel back in 2007.  While there is no Curlin (at least not yet) this year, we will be treated to one of (if not THE) finest colts in the nation on Saturday when trainer Larry Jones sends Old Fashioned to post,  leading the field for the 49th running of the Rebel (Grade 2) at Oaklawn Park. 

Past performances available here

  1. Old Fashioned (R. Dominguez/ L. Jones) 7/5*
  2. Hamazing Destiny (T .J. Thompson/ D. W. Lukas) 5/1
  3. Poltergeist (Q. Hamilton/ D. Von Hemel) 15/1
  4. Pointing Home (J. A. Garcia/ C. Dickey) 15/1
  5. Wise Kid (J. C. Caraballo/ T. Ritchey) 9/2
  6. His Greatness (L. J. Sterling Jr./ M. Salazar) 12/1
  7. Captain Cherokee (L. S. Quinonez/ S. Asmussen) 8/1
  8. Silver City (J. Court/ W. B. Calhoun) 4/1
  9. Win Willy (M. C. Berry/ M. Robertson) 20/1

It would appear that Old Fashioned has scared off most of the would-be challengers.  The son of Unbridled’s Song looms the standout in the Rebel field coming off 4 consecutive victories to open his career, including the Remsen (Grade 2) and the Southwest  (Grade 3).   He’s expected to waltz past this field, and it’s worth noting that Larry Jones will be at Oaklawn with Old Fashioned rather than at Fair Grounds with Friesan Fire.  It looks like he should continue his triumphant procession this weekend towards the Kentucky Derby. 

Wise Kid is the horse I’m anxious to see in this field.  He’s progressed nicely up the ranks from Maiden Special Weight to N2L Optional Claimers last out.  The  son of Lemon Drop Kid has never seen the likes of Old Fashioned, but he certainly belongs with the rest of the field.

Silver City would be the logical choice underneath in exactas, having finished in the money in all 5 lifetime races (including 3 impressive wins sprinting).  He faced off against Old Fashioned in the Southwest and held on for place.  You get the feeling the exact same thing will happen this weekend, which might make him vulnerable to being upset in the exacta pool by a runner like Wise Kid.

Poltergeist is a horse I heard a lot of buzz about going into the Southwest, but he didn’t really show up that day.  If you liked him that day, you’ve got to at least like the 15/1 morning line odds this weekend. 

The head-scratcher of this race is Hamazing Destiny.  He put up a 96 Beyer in his debut over the Oaklawn track sprinting 6 furlongs on February 7.  He’s also been turning in strong workouts in the mornings.  The question is, can he run that type of figure stretching out to 1 1/16 miles?   I’d make him prove it before accepting him at 5/1, but then again there’s not a whole lot else to hang your hat on in this race.

Captain Cherokee, His Greatness, and Win Willy look playable underneath.  Let’s see…that’s pretty much the entire field though.  The only horse I don’t think has a legit shot of hitting the board is Pointing Home. 

I’ll take Old Fashioned over Wise Kid and Silver City in place.  I’ll spread pretty deep for the bottom spots of the Superfecta by adding in Hamazing Destiny, Poltergeist, His Greatness, and Captain Cherokee for show.  Add Win Willy to that mix for 4th.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #1 Old Fashioned
  • $.10 Superfecta: 1/5,8/2,3,5,6,7,8/2,3,5,6,7,8,9 ($5.00)

That’ll do it folks…it’s been a long evening, so there’s your picks for the major Derby preps this weekend.   One note as a horse racing fan – do make sure you also check out the impressive filly Rachel Alexandra in the Fair Ground Oaks.  She just might be the best horse running all day.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Old Fashioned

Old Fashioned puts away Silver City in the Southwest

16 02 2009

 

Old Fashioned, the impressive Larry Jones trained three-year-old son of Unbridled’s Song, faced his toughest challenge yet in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Monday and came out of the race a worthy front runner on the 2009 Kentucky Derby trail. Breaking from post 5, jockey Ramon Dominguez was away sharply before tucking Old Fashioned in behind Silver City in the early going.  As the field turned for home, however, it had already turned into a two horse race between these two as they thundered through the stretch.  Old Fashioned put away Silver City rather handily, while Buzzin and Dreamin just barely avoided being nipped at the wire for show by a late charging Flat Out.

Results Chart

That’s a classy winner right there.  As easy as he made the win look, I think it’s important to remember that many, myself included, thought he would be significantly tested today.  To that end, it  looked like Silver City was indeed going to make him earn every step through the turn and the stretch.  In the end Old Fashioned was simply too much for Silver City to contend with.

The win sets up Old Fashioned as the dominant contender on the Oaklawn circuit.  I mentioned earlier in the weekend during the handicapping selections for the Southwest that he was a nearly unanimous stable selection in the Road to the Roses challenge.  It certainly looks like we’ve all hit gold with this one as he’s likely to be a solid favorite in both the upcoming Rebel (3/14) amd Arkansas Derby (4/11). 

Silver City ran a big race, but ultimately wasn’t able to hang on late in the stretch.  I really liked the way Flat Out was moving late.  Buzzin and Dreamin busted my superfecta ticket by hanging on for third.  Another jump and Flat Out would’ve had Buzzin and Dreamin for show.  Oh well.

In other action across the country, the John Sadler trained filly Evita Argentina came through against the boys in the Grade 2 San Vicente at Santa Anita, under  a beautiful ride by jockey Garrett Gomez.  Gotta tip your hat whenever a filly shows she can take on the boys and win.  I was also happy that she made me look smarter than I am as she appeared to tower over the field in the pre-race handicapping despite being 5/1 on the morning line.  I also managed to hit the super in that one, although the value was nothing like what I had hoped for, even with the morning line favorite finishing 4th.

Things quiet down for a moment on the Derby trail with only the Turf Paradise Derby looming on 2/21.  After that, we’re right back in action with the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and the Grade 3 Sham on 2/28.   All in all this was a good day for us in our Road to the Roses stables as we picked up points for Old Fashioned, trainer Larry Jones, and Garret Gomez aboard Evita Argentina.  Personally, I think Amy’s stable (which I of course helped her set up) is in FANTASTIC shape.  Just look at what she’s got lined up and tell me s he doesn’t have a big chance to score some major points.  My own stables are similar,  but as she did not enter until early this weekend, overall she is in better shape.  After winning with Old Fashioned and Larry Jones today, the rest of her stable sets up like this:

-Notonthesamepage  (Beyer freak appears primed for the G2 Fountain of Youth 2/28 )

-Captain Candyman Can (Probable favorite for the G2 Fountain of Youth 2/28 )

-The Pamplemousse (looms the top selection for the G3 Sham 2/28 )

-Haynesfield (current leader of the NY path to the Derby – next up in the G3 Gotham 3/7)

-Danger to Society (dangerous challenger to Haynesfield in the G3 Gotham 3/7)

-Mr. Fantasy (another who figures to test Haynes field in the G3 Gotham 3/7)

-Friesan Fire (likely favorite for the G2 LA Derby 3/14)

-Patena (IEAH/Dutrow “A-horse” for the Derby?  G2 LA Derby 3/14)

-Pioneer of the Nile (G2 San Felipe 3/14)

Go baby, go!  :)


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Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Old Fashioned, Santa Anita

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