Nothing stops the procession of progress around here at The Aspiring Horseplayer, not even the arrival of a new son. That’s right, in case you somehow missed it, my second little guy was born last Saturday at the hospital in Gettysburg. He’s got good turf pedigree and should round out into one of the better juveniles in a couple of years. Actually, I’m hoping he’s not affiliated with anything “juvenile” as that conjures up images of detention centers and correctional facilities. Let’s hope that’s a path this boy can avoid.
Beyond that excitement, there’s obviously NFL playoff fever in the air. I’ll just come right out and say that on Divisional Weekend I like the Panthers, Eagles, Ravens, and Chargers. Now that football is out of the way, let’s dive into our sport of choice; thoroughbred horse racing, and see if we can’t pick some winners for the Lecomte, the San Pasqual, and a very interesting Allowance race at Gulfstream Park featuring two of the more highly regarded 3-year-olds in the land.
The Grade 3 Lecomte – Fair Grounds (Race 9) – 1 Mile (Dirt)
- #1 Friesan FIre (5/1)
- #2 Au Moon (8/1)
- #3 Citizen (20/1)
- #4 Patena (4/1)
- #5 Big Push (8/1)
- #6 Dynamic Force (10/1)
- #7 Professor Z (6/1)
- #8 Uno Mass (5/1)
- #9 Indygo Mountain (3/1*)
Looking over the field of the Lecomte, we’ve got some speed signed on here with Patena breaking from the 4 hole, Big Push from post 5, and the Steve Asmussen runner Professor Z from post 7. That should set things up nicely for one of the stalkers, namely either Indygo Mountain or Uno Mass.
Of those two, I prefer the other Asmussen entry, Uno Mass, by the slimmest of margins. The son of Macho Uno has not only borken his maiden, but also defeated the next level allowance foes, something that Indygo Mountain has not achieved yet. All things considered I think these two colts are very close in terms of talent, so it all comes down to whether or not you like 3/1 on the extreme outside, or 5/1 just to his inside. I’ll probably play the odds here.
There are a couple of others in here to keep your eye on if shooting for the $.10 superfecta (fast becoming one of my favorite bets in the game; to the point that I’m almost disgusted when it’s not offered on a betting program…every race should have a $.10 super!!!). Au Moon won for fun last out against Special Weight competition and could be any kind of horse. He accomplished that from the 10 hole last out and should appreciate being moved inside today. Friesan Fire is also very intriguing with that combination of jockey Gabriel Saez and trainer Larry Jones (not to mention the horse, who appears to be in sharp form).
I’ll play Uno Mass on top with Indygo Mountain (note: I keep wanting to type “hello, my name is Indygo Mountain, you killed my father, prepare to die!!!” whenever I write his name), Professor Z, and Friesan Fire in place. I’ll add in Au Moon and Patena for show, and finally I’ll add Big Push for 4th:
8/1,7,9/1,2,4,7,9/1,2,4,5,7,9 = $4.80
Gulfstream Park Alw 42000N$Y (7 Furlongs – Dirt)
- #1 Summerton (12/1)
- #2 Belo Sorte (20/1)
- #3 Two Brash (12/1)
- #4 Quality Road (5/2*)
- #5 Obligingly (3/1)
- #6 Theregoesjojo (6/1)
- #7 B B’s Song (20/1)
- #8 Meshuga (30/1)
- #9 Monk’s Creek (8/1)
- #10 Tar Beach (12/1)
- #11 Awesome Rythm (12/1)
- #12 Jet Set Vinny (8/1)
This very well could be the race of the day. By far it’s the race I’m most excited about as Saturday draws near. Two of the most highly touted 3-year-olds in the land, Quality Road and Obligingly, will knock heads in this deceptively strong conditional allowance race and we may get our first look at who is a Derby contender and who is a pretender when all is said and done. Both colts have surpassed the 100 Beyer figure threshold as 2-year-olds. Quality Road is the one thought to have the brighter future, but today may be Obligingly’s day to shine.
Quality Road posted a 101 figure breaking from the 10 hole in his debut at Aqueduct last November. Since then he’s been throwing bullets at Palm Meadows and would appear to be primed and loaded for trainer James Jerkens. Obligingly is an Officer colt that jumped from a 49 Beyer in his debut to an impressive 100 at Churchill in an 11 length win on December 7.
Take your pick from these two, but I can’t see anyone else beating them. I’ll probably play odds again here, if I even play (the $.10 Superfecta is calling me to). This is one of those races I just want to see both colts come back well from after moving forward in the afternoon. Hopefully we get that. All things being equal, at the tricky 7 furlong distance, I’ll take Obligingly. It won’t bother me at all if Quality Road is as good as advertised and he beats me. We’ll keep the play cheap.
5/4,9,12/1,4,9,12/1,3,4,9,11,12 = $3.60
The Grade 2 San Pasqual Handicap – Santa Anita (Race 8) – 1 1/16 Miles (Pro Ride)
- #1 Mostacolli Mort
- #2 Marchfield
- #3 Informed
- #4 Cowboy Cal
- #5 Noble Court
- #6 Past the Point
- #7 Well Armed
- #8 Magnum
- #9 Blue Exit
- #10 Ball Four
- #11 Racketeer
- #12 Slew’s Tizzy
We end up the day in the feature at Santa Anita, the 72nd running of the Grade 2 San Pasqual Handicap. Hopefully any of you playing the Santa Anita card are still alive in the enormous Pick 6 carryover pool available on Saturday. I don’t quite have the cash flow to take an honest stab into that at the moment. The carryover itself illustrates one small problem for handicappers; when to have the courage to stand on favorites. They haven’t been winning as often as usual as the Pro Ride has adapted to it’s first full winter of use.
Still, I think it’s going to take a top notch effort from someone to take down the favorite, Well Armed, here. We’ve seen Well Armed bang heads with Curlin and Go Between in the past. To me he’s clearly the best horse on paper once you draw a line through the effort last out in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (aka “Synthetic Mile”).
That being said, there are some attractive options if you feel like taking a stab. For starters, one of my favorite horses to play in such angles is Cowboy Cal. Some of you may remember I picked him in the Hollywood Derby and he finished less than a length behind Court Vision (I still feel like he could’ve won that one). I really like his recent form, and if he were to put it all together today, he’d certainly have a chance.
Another to keep an eye on is the often disrespected Past the Point. I say “often disrespected” because he isn’t known for being a “winner” and was at one point, along with the late Wanderin Boy, one of the horses those who were not fans of Curlin would use to point out the weakness of races like the Woodward. What Past the Point has shown me since then is that he isn’t a fluke. He belongs in this kind of race. I’m not sure he can ever beat the likes of Well Armed, but he can certainly hit the board consistently. I’d expect him to give a pretty good account of himself when all is said an done.
Another horse to consider here is Slew’s Tizzy breaking from the extreme outside. For those that don’t know, I have a confirmed fetish for playing the offspring of Tiznow. It’s just something I’ve noticed over the years. They do pretty well for me when I play them, and when I don’t play them (cough, Da’ Tara, cough), they absolutely burn me alive. He’s another that if you draw a line through is effort on Breeders’ Cup weekend makes a lot of sense here, although that outside post could be an issue. At least, if nothing else, it should assure a clean break.
I’ll play the chalk on top, with Past the Point, Cowboy Cal, and Slew’s Tizzy in place. I’ll add in Ball Four for show, and then toss in Mostacolli Mort and the other Tiznow colt (Informed) and Noble Court for the bottom of the superfecta:
7/4,6,12/4,6,10,12/1,3,4,5,6,10,12 = $4.50
As always, best of luck to all and be sure to check for late changes/scratches – not to mention weather this time of year.
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