Kentucky Derby Rankings – Third Times a Charm

14 03 2010

Odysseus (#7) and the field for the Tampa Bay Derby pass the stands on Saturday 3/13. Photo by Natalie Keller Reinert: http://retiredracehorseblog.wordpress.com/

Our third edition of the Derby watch list and the first time I think we may have definitively found our horse for the first Saturday in May.  The past weekend saw the validation of two runners on our previous Kentucky Derby watch list that were absent from many others.  My personal favorite and then #2 ranked horse Odysseus turned in an against-all-odds photo finish victory against Schoolyard Dreams in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby.

Would you believe that even the DRF Derby Watch List that came with the Saturday (3/13) edition of the Form didn’t have Odysseus listed in their top 20 horses?  Big mistake.  Granted, he had no graded stakes earnings at the time, but they had to know he was a player for the Tampa Bay Derby.  Hopefully he gets some more respect this time around.

For all those who still don’t believe that Odysseus got there in the photo finish for the Tampa Bay Derby, check out this picture for definitive proof.

Our previous #10 horse, Sidney’s Candy also triumphed over such contenders as Interactif, American Lion, Dave in Dixie and Caracortado in the Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita.  Nice going Sidney! Way to reward my faith in you as one of the 3-year-olds to keep an eye on.

Everybody had Lookin at Lucky in the Grade 3 Rebel at Oaklawn, so that one comes as no surprise.  Although the performance itself was as impressive as they come.  This horse looks like the real deal to me.

So, in case you missed the action (what were you, living under a rock???), there’s a quick recap.  Without further adieu, here’s our updated top 10 Kentucky Derby rankings as of 3/14/2010.

  • #1 Odysseus

It’s time to make the bold move and place my boy squarely in the top spot.  Has he proved himself better than Lookin at Lucky or Eskendereya?  Absolutely not.  But this colt has heart and tremendous upside, and he reaffirmed everything I thought about him with that gutsy victory in the Tampa Bay Derby this weekend.  Everyone knows I’m a sucker for a good chestnut, and I’ve made no attempt to hide my affection for this colt ever since I first laid eyes on him back in mid-February. He’s my Derby horse. I know he’s green as can be in the stretch and looked like he lost interest at times in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I remember another chestnut named Curlin who looked green in the stretch at this point in his career as well.  I’m not saying he’s Curlin by any stretch of the imagination, but then again I don’t think I’ve seen the likes of Street Sense or Hard Spun in this crop either, so he doesn’t have to be Curlin.  Being Odysseus will suit him just fine.  Up next might be the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3.  Go get ‘em, Big Red horse!

  • #2 Lookin at Lucky

Baffert trained colt didn’t just come east and pass the dirt test, he overcame a trip from hell in the process to win a thrilling edition of the Grade 3 Rebel at Oaklawn Park.  Oaklawn has been the launching point of numerous 3-year-olds in recent seasons, including Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2008.  Baffert’s decision to ship the colt east to get a true dirt prep race under him before the Kentucky Derby was a sure sign of confidence, and Lucky delivered on that good faith gamble.  This colt seems to have all the tools to be a Derby winner and more.  Let’s just hope we haven’t seen the best of him yet.

  • #3 Eskendereya

Gets the Rodney Dangerfield treatment on this update, dropping two spots from the top of the list in our last update.  It’s through no fault of his own and certainly should not be interpreted as a sign of decreased confidence in the colt’s ability.  It’s just that I’ve hitched my wagons to Odysseus and thought Lucky may have won the most improbable prep race of the season. There’s no shame in being #3.  I’d still cover this guy as a win threat if the Kentucky Derby were tomorrow.  The son of Giant’s Causeway justly rests on the top of many such watch lists, and you’ll hear no complaint from me with that ranking.  Likely pointing to the Florida Derby.

  • #4 Awesome Act

Another horse that, like Odysseus last week, you won’t see ranked as aggressively on most Derby watch lists.  He looked dominating in the Gotham, even if that wasn’t the toughest prep race we’ve ever seen.  I won’t forgive myself all Triple Crown season for having publicly doubted this horse prior to that Gotham performance, and the impression he made on me was strong enough that I’ll continue to mention him as being my 2nd favorite horse on this list.  I think he’s seriously underrated by folks that are discounting that Gotham victory. If he shows up in the Wood Memorial, it could pit my 2 favorite 3-year-olds against one another.

  • #5 Rule

The horse that has bounced up and down the list all season, looking for some place to fit in.  I guess that’s kid of like a euphemism for his place in Todd Pletcher’s barn.  Eskendereya has got to be the top dog that rules the roost, but it was quoted that Pletcher was looking for a Grade 1 immediately following his commanding victory in the Sam F. Davis.  With Eskendereya possibly headed to the Florida Derby, that could mean Rule comes north and helps fill out a Wood Memorial field that could wind up extremely contentious.

  • #6 Discreetly Mine

Risen star winner might be a forgotten horse by some.  He knocked off Tempted to Tapit, Drosselmeyer, and Ron the Greek in that Risen Star victory, 3 horses I consider to be decent opponents.  I continue to question whether this horse will actually want to go 10 furlongs come the first Saturday in May, but if he can, he could offer some value on the tote board.  I’d also prefer to see him relax a bit early on.

  • #7 Conveyance

With the defeat of Caracortado in the San Felipe this weekend, Conveyance is the last of my infamous Cris Carter types that I’m so fond of.  All he does is win horse races, and he came east and won a race on the dirt, so we can’t hold that against him.  He may not be taking as glamorous a road to the Kentucky Derby as anyone else, and there are questions surrounding whether the son of Indian Charlie will get the distance of the Kentucky Derby, but he gives Baffert some options as the major Grade 1 preps start to appear on the horizon.

  • #8 Sidney’s Candy

I’ve said all along that this could be “any kind of horse.”  The son of Candy Ride got away with some soft fractions in the San Felipe and made a field of big named contenders pay for that mistake this past weekend.  We’ll hear distance questions with this horse as well until they are definitively answered (Candy Rides not being known to be classic distance horses), but keep in mind that there’s an exception to every rule.  Certainly can’t knock the horse for winning.

  • #9 Interactif

The biggest mover on the list who did not run a winning race last out.  The son of Broken View gave Todd Pletcher and company another serious Derby contender with a very impressive finish in the San Felipe behind Sidney’s Candy.  Versatile runner is effective on all dirt, turf, and synthetics.  He  made up at least two lengths on Sidney’s Candy in the stretch and lept of the screen for those viewing the race as one to keep an eye on.

  • #10 Noble’s Promise

Another non-winner who joins the list for the first time today.  Finish just a head behind Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel at Oaklawn.  This is a classy horse who has probably been under appreciated throughout the prep season thus far.  As a 2-year-old he won the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, and finished just a 1/2 length behind Vale of York and Lookin at Lucky in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita.  Trainer Ken McPeek and jockey Robby Albarado teamed with the son of Cuvee for the Rebel, but everyone from Martinez to Bejarano to Mena to Desormeaux has been aboard before.  I thought he ran a great race, and if not for an extremely valiant effort by Lookin at Lucky, we’d be looking at the Rebel winner here. For that alone he deserves consideration for a top 10 list.

Others to watch:

We continue to track a number of colts who did not make the top 10 list.  Some notable horses include Connemara, Caracortado, Super Saver (ye’s, he’s on my honorable mention list now as I thought he looked good despite needing a race), Schoolyard Dreams, Jackson Bend, Dave in Dixie, Buddy’s Saint, Drosselmeyer, and Ron the Greek.  Of course there are others, and the list changes with each passing moment.

Hard to believe it, but next weekend is already Florida Derby time.  We’ve also got the Swale lined up at well. Check back later in the week for updates on the major racing action ahead.


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Categories : Awesome Act, Eskendereya, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky

Rachel, Zenyatta, and the real fans of horse racing

14 03 2010

“Were these things real or are they but the vagaries of mine own imagination?”

- Private Sam Watkins, Company Aytch (H), 1st Tennessee Volunteers

Unbelievable: the word captures the feelings still percolating among the masses as they continue to deal with the unanticipated defeat of the 2009 Horse of the Year, Rachel Alexandra, at the hands of the relatively unknown Zardana in her first start of the 2010 season.  The word also describes how fans felt who watched as the defending Breeders’ Cup Classic champion, Zenyatta, appeared trapped at the top of the stretch for the Santa Margarita, as the undefeated daughter of Street Cry was forced to duck inside and do some dirty work from down along the rail before pulling off in typical Slow Cheetah style.

To be certain, there were numerous players who thought either horse might be worth playing against, but I’m sure in their hearts they fully expected both champions to prevail.  As we’ve been reminded countless times in the last 24 hours, Rachel Alexandra becomes the first defending Horse of the Year in the last 10 attempts to lose her debut race the following campaign.  Of course, we also know that most great horses eventually lose – including greats like Kelso and Secretariat.  The trouble is, for Rachel at least, that her rival, Zenyatta, doesn’t lose.  She almost did once to Anaaba’s Creation, in what would’ve been an equally upsetting, well, upset, but found a way to gut out a win.

Let there be no mistake about it: Zenyatta is the best horse on the planet.  It’s not even open for debate anymore at this point in time.

That’s not to say I’m taking anything away from Rachel Alexandra.  Far from it.  Unlike the throngs of absolutely classless Zenyatta fans (oh yeah, I’m calling YOU OUT if you were one…if you weren’t then please don’t take offense) who actually cheered that Rachel was losing.  The living embodiment of the words “classless” and “disgusting.”  I can only assume that in their adolescent minds this Saturday’s race was some sort of referendum on the 2009 Horse of the Year voting.  It wasn’t, as anyone with an IQ over 40 understands.  2009 was about 2009, and that issue has been settled and debated to death.

Seriously, I wasn’t there to see it firsthand and so don’t want to spend a lot of time talking about it, but both folks on TVG and Twitter reported that fans at Santa Anita were “cheering” and “celebrating” Rachel’s defeat.  I hold out hope that these reports are untrue or were grossly misrepresented and/or taken out of context.  If, however, you were among those doing so – shame on you.  SHAME!!!!!! Nothing but shame, and eternal shame!   Just absolutely Wal-Mart trailer-trashified if you ask me.

Suffice to say that these reports were received as absolutely sickening by just about anyone with a pulse outside of California.  This ranks right up there with Eagles fans booing Santa Clause and cheering the injury of Cowboys receiver Michael Irvin.  The only way it’s excusable, in my mind, is if those cheering  had wagered serious cash on Zardana to pull the upset.  If that’s the case – yes, you have every reason to erupt in celebration.  Something tells me though that was not the driving force behind the episode.

Ironically, it was during the stretch run of Zenyatta’s victory just minutes later that we were publicly admonished by the Santa Anita track announcer “if you don’t have goosebumps now, you’re not a fan of horse racing!”


Really?????

Taken on its own merit, I fully agree with the sentiment of the statement.  The timing of its delivery though, coming hot off the heels of the reports of Santa Anita fans rejoicing and celebrating at Rachel Alexandra’s downfall, could not have been worse.  It left many perplexed as to just where in the hell anyone associated with Santa Anita would get off thinking they had any wiggle room to lecture the rest of us as to how “real fans” of horse racing ought to think, feel, or act.

What’s next, Nancy Pelosi telling us we need to be more fiscally responsible?  Michael Vick chastising us over how we treat our pets?  Octomom offering crtitical reviews of our parental skills (or lack thereof)?

The whole thing was laughable at best, if not somewhat aggravating.

Most “real fans” I know were pulling heavily for both horses to win.  Obviously some self-described fans of one horse (but not the other) actually hate the “other side.”  This is unfortunate and not something I subscribe to in our sport, but I suppose it’s what happens with great rivalries.  No doubt many Ali fans despised Frazier.  Yankee and Red Sox fans aren’t known for their cordial demeanor to one another. I think I detest Sidney Crosby (just a bit) for scoring that overtime goal in the Gold Medal game of the 2010 Winer Olympics to defeat Team USA in overtime.   Obviously there’s the Bama/Auburn rivalry I was born into.  And of course, I’ve never found room in my heart to forgive either the 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates or the 1989 Toronto Blue Jays for crushing the hopes and dreams of my beloved Baltimore Orioles.

So yes, I get it – and I know many folks just have trouble containing their emotions and displaying “the better angels of our nature” when they are flushed with either victory or defeat.  It does makes it extremely hard for those who identify themselves as Rachel fans to even be able to cheer for Zenyatta at all (though I concede that if Saturday’s results were the other way around, I might be penning admonishing words to Rachel fans for behaving in classless fashion towards Zenyatta fans, so I digress).

I guess I’m a poster child for this phenomenon/dichotomy/conundrum.  Perennially torn between both factions.  Zenyatta was a horse I fell in love with on paper in her maiden race, and then followed closely here as she progressed up the ranks.  BEFORE the great masses who exist now had showed up.   I remember screaming from the rooftops when she won her allowance victory that she was a “future Grade 1 winner, at least” (with the “at least” part suggesting the sky was the limit for her).  Turns out that suspicion was correct and that she’s not just a Grade 1 winner, but an undefeated Classic winner who is every bit a champion and then some.

Then Rachel came along.  A once-in-a-lifetime 3-year-old that broke hundreds of years of historical precedence every time she took to the track.  Her 2009 campaign, despite all of the recent bashing from “haters” who are coming out of the woodworks in droves now, was a thing of beauty.  No 3-year-old filly had ever achieved such a distinguished mark of races won.  Was she ever better than Zenyatta?  In hindsight, I don’t think so, but see – that’s where most fans get caught up.  They mistakenly assume that “Horse of the Year” should be bestowed upon whomever would likely win a theoretical race between the competitors.  It’s not about that.  It’s about who had the better overall campaign.

I maintain that a slightly more aggressive campaign with Zenyatta in 2009 would’ve locked up Horse of the Year.  She certainly had the race of the year, but for months while Zenyatta was barely in the news, Rachel was shattering history at numerous tracks.  Oh well.  At this point in time folks have heard it all before, so it’s not like anything I type is going to change anyone’s mind.  Everyone’s an expert – and everyone knows better than the Eclipse Award voters….yet everyone cowered like frightened schoolgirls when we suggested opening up the voting process to the public (far easier to sit back and criticize whatever happens in the voting from a safe distance, I suppose).

So where do we go from here?

Well, it all depends on how Rachel Alexandra returns from the race.  Personally, I don’t think she looked ready to take on Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom.  I can’t imagine Jess Jackson will send her.  I know she’s been off for 6 months, and that her training schedule wasn’t ideal, and she “needed a race”, but it would seem only those with extreme hubris or a personal lust to see her throttled on the big stage would dare put her in a race against Zenyatta now.

I wonder…if Rachel is scratched from the Apple Blossom, how many of those Zenyatta fans that actually cheered for Rachel’s defeat, and who also hold tickets for Oaklawn, will piss and moan about being “cheated” ?   That would be priceless!  One can only hope they take a healthy dose of egg on their face in some fashion.

That’s what I never understood about this situation.  Even if you are the most diehard Zenyatta fan and the most rabid of Rachel bashers – you should’ve been pulling for victories by both horses on Saturday.  That would’ve only hyped the Apple Blossom even more, and made any victory over the other horse all the more celebrated.  Just as the call for the Santa Margarita implored “if you don’t have goosebumps now, you don’t like horse racing” - well, guess what Californians – right back at you.  If you weren’t pulling for both horses, you don’t like horse racing.  Period.

I equate  this to what I go through during SEC football season.  I’m a diehard Crimson Tide fan.  I HATE Auburn, Tennessee, and Florida with a passion (to the extent that the color orange actually can make me physically ill) – yet you best believe yourself that I’d prefer to face all of those teams when they are undefeated rather than in some weakened state fresh off a humbling defeat.   Anyone remember last year’s SEC Championship game?  What made beating the Florida Gators in that game so special was that they were the undefeated, defending national champions – not some weakened foe that many saw as a “paper tiger.”

In fact, there’s a direct comparison we can draw between that SEC Championship Game and the supposed cheering of Santa Anita fans as Rachel was defeated by Zardana in the New Orleans Ladies.

In the final minutes of Alabama’s romp over Florida, the big screen at the Georgia Dome flashed an image of Gators quarterback Tim Tebow crying on the sidelines.  The stadium, and most Alabama fans erupted in joy.  I’ll admit – for a fleeting moment I smiled, thinking of Alabama’s motto (“make their ass quit!!!”).  As such, I think I can relate to what “Zenyatta fans” (those who are exclusively Zenyatta fans rather than fans of both horses) must’ve experienced the past year.  Every news broadcast, every College Gameday presentation – all were filled with references to “Gators this” and “Tebow that.”  Most announcers seemed to have an unnatural Tebow-fetish.  To defeat him on such a big stage was euphoric, if not outright epic.

Within minutes though, I was posting this to Florida fans across the net:

“Hold your heads high, Gator fans.  You’ve got nothing to be ashamed of.  We know damn well it’s you we’ll have to face next year, and the year after that (and so on) if we want to repeat as SEC champs.  While I’m celebrating this victory with everything I’ve got, please know from one SEC fan to another that it pains me to see your magnificent quarterback reduced to tears of defeat.  He’s a warrior, and that’s not the way he deserves to go out.  Pick those heads up and go knock the tar out of folks in the Sugar Bowl!  We’ll see you next year for another epic conference championship.”

Man, what I wouldn’t give to see ONE classy comment from a self-proclaimed Zenyatta fan (and non Rachel fan) out there, if only to reinforce my general belief in humanity that normally defines me.  Sadly, all I hear so far is “nah-nah-boo-booing”, which while infinitely entertaining for children under the ages of 5, tends to get old to the rest of us pretty fast.

Wow…this far into the article and I’ve barely got to talk about the races themselves.

Zenyatta’s move was remarkable.  Much like Odysseus in the Tampa Bay Derby earlier in the day, it looked for a moment when Mike Smith sent her to the inside that the unthinkable was about to repeat itself.  She seemed to have nowhere to go.   Luckily some room did open up, and she began to extend those amazon-esque strides when she needed to, inhaling everything in her path.  In fact, it almost seemed like someone reminded Dance to My Tune (the off-the-charts longshot who would’ve won, had Zenyatta not caught her)  that she wasn’t supposed to win.

Amazing performance?  You betcha.  But, if I can say one thing – Dance to My Tune had not finished in an exacta since 2008.  I’m just sayin’ – we’ve seen Zenyatta beat the best before, and this field certainly was one she was supposed to toy with.

Of course, so was Rachel in the New Orleans Ladies.  I actually thought, despite the contentious pace setup on paper, that we’d see more of a Mother Goose style performance rating off the pace and then exploding in the turn.  Instead it looked like Calvin Borel was fighting her a bit early in an effort to keep her relaxed, and that she simply had nothing in the tank for the final 16th of a mile when she needed it the most.

In other news, as pointed out over on the TVG Community, take a look at these Google results from yesterday.

racingtrends.jpg

Anyone doubt that we could “Take Back Saturday” now (if we’d just get our butts in gear)?   Temper a bit of the excitement with the fact that the majority of those “NTRA” searches were from folks like yours truly in mad, rabid bids to attempt to access the promised “LIVE streaming video” that the NTRA absolutely choked on delivering.   So much so that I actually felt embarrassed for having spent energy broadcasting to folks all over the internet that the live streaming was supposed to be available.

There they were – no doubt in greater numbers than anyone (including me) had anticipated.  Real fans – the kind of fans who go out of there way to organize an entire day around the haphazard channel and multi-media surfing we force them into, if only to catch a fleeting glimpse of our future stars.  Real fans – ones who don’t need to quantify the validity of their fanship by categorizing the physical reactions of their epidermis in response to unfolding situations on the track, and who aren’t participating in orgies of celebration over the downfall of a perceived foe.  Real fans – folks who just love horse racing.  We had them – and we failed to deliver.

Alex Waldrop has already issued a public apology on the matter.  Look, I know folks will snicker and laugh, but I’m glad he’s done so.  The situation was utterly unacceptable and displayed everything that’s been so damn frustrating for those of us that tirelessly try to promote this game.  We aren’t paid marketing staff.  We aren’t on anyone’s salary list.  We work day jobs, raise families, and spend significant portions of our “home time” thinking up ideas to promote the sport and then firing off posts hoping to attract someone from out there in the vast expanse of the internet.   And then, just when we’re on the cusp of making a monumental turning point – we’re failed by technology and those who promised us they had our backs.

It’s disheartening – but having met the folks from the NTRA, I’m satisfied that they understand this can never happen again.  I know they are racing fans at heart and I’m sure they are angered that this didn’t go off as planned.  Alex is a stand-up guy and issuing a public apology to the enraged masses (heck, even I dropped an “f-bomb” about the situation over on Twitter.  I’m only human – and I was PISSED) was the right thing to do.  He didn’t waste any time in doing so, either – nor did he fill it with political or party-line mumbo jumbo.  Just “straight-up”, we screwed up, we apologize, we’ll fix it.   I respect that approach.  Now let’s just make darn sure we deliver on that promise next time through.  NO EXCUSES!

If yesterday taught us anything it’s that we’ve go what it takes to turn some heads with our marquee racing action on a Saturday afternoon.  Kudos to the folks behind the Santa Anita operation that actually got the Santa Margarita broadcast LIVE on ESPN News.  That was a much needed  pick-me-up following the New Orleans Ladies debacle.  Remember folks – accessibility/availability is the first and most crucial component towards growing the sport.  ”People will come” – but we have to tell them where to go.  :)

As for the other races on the day?  How ’bout my boy Odysseus!!!



Who wants on the bandwagon now?  Left for dead as the field turned for home in the Tampa Bay Derby, somehow he rallied to fight his way into an EPIC photo finish with Schoolyard Dreams.  No matter how many times you watch this replay, it still seems unfathomable that he got there – but he did!   Suffice to say, he validated my aggressive top 5 placement in our most recent Kentucky Derby rankings, as did Lookin’ at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy (currently my #10 horse).  I also thought Interactif looked “hella” good running second behind Sidney’s Candy.   We’ll have our updated Kentucky Derby rankings posted shortly.


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Categories : Fair Grounds, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Rachel Alexandra, Santa Anita, Zenyatta

Derby Rankings: Hot Shots! Part Deux

9 03 2010

With less than 2 months to go before the famed “run for the roses” in the 2010 Kentucky Derby, it’s time to once again put pen to paper in what figures to be another futile attempt to make some sense of the contenders we’ve seen thus far.  The weekend past was a tale of two emotions: “Twas the best of times, twas the worst of times.”  We watched the emergence of a star-in-the-making in Awesome Act’s powerful Gotham performance.  Then we watched in disbelief as Blind Luck failed to catch Crisp at the wire in the Santa Anita Oaks, despite running her heart out in the stretch.

The defeat of Blind Luck means that I had to drop her off my Derby rankings list, especially since I only go 10 deep in the actual rankings.  I still think she’s as good as the top 10 colts around, and would expect a rebound next time out.  Real estate, however, becomes precious with so little time ahead.  The loss all but assures that if she travels to Churchill Downs, it will be to run in the Oaks rather than the Derby.  Personally, I’ll be holding out hope that she throttles the Oaks field and then points for the Preakness or Belmont.  A guy can wish, can’t he?

As for Awesome Act’s performance, let’s just say that heading into post he looked like a million bucks. I had advised playing against him in our selections for the Gotham that morning, but once anyone got a look at him in the post parade, it’s hard to imagine they didn’t have a fairly good idea of what was about to happen.  I wound up posting on Twitter that “if he runs as good as he looks, the Gotham might be over already.”

Sure enough, it was.

The weekend ahead figures to be equally as compelling.  The San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby, and the Rebel await.  Of course, the most important “prep” races happening this weekend aren’t likely to involve 3-year-olds.  The return of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra in the New Orleans Ladies and that of 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic champion Zenyatta in the Santa Margarita will be the biggest shows in town, and rightly so.  And just in time to start breaking out the grills and go exploring this vast expanse we’ve not seen for many months, formerly buried in snow, that locals refer to as “outside.”

Yes, there’s much to be excited about this time of year.  With that in mind, let’s take a look at the updated rankings of the contenders for the 2010 Kentucky Derby.

1. Eskendereya

No change at the top spot.  Todd Pletcher’s  son of Giant’s Causeway catapulted to the top of many Derby watch lists after his dominating performance in the Fountain of Youth.  Up next will be the Florida Derby.  At first I didn’t think I’d keep him on top for long, but now it’s starting to seem like it will take a pretty big performance in one of the Grade 1 preps to knock him from this position.  I’ve warmed to him.  He’s a legitimate #1 on such lists based on what we’ve seen from the crop overall.

2. Odysseus

A wise man once told me to always remember the horse you rode in on.  All kidding aside, I’m typically loyal to a fault, and this may well be another fait accompli for yours truly.  There was something Curlin-esque about this colt when I first saw him in a replay against allowance runners at Tampa Bay.  On the surface, he’s done nothing that warrants this aggressive a ranking, having not earned a single dollar of the all-important graded stakes money he’ll need to secure a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby on May 1st.  That being said, he’s slated to take on Super Saver and others in the Tampa Bay Derby.  If he’s anywhere near the horse I think he is, we’ll see it this weekend.  I’m trusting my gut on this one.  I think this is a race horse here, and a pretty darn good one at that.

3.  Lookin at Lucky

If he had stayed in California and not tried the dirt in any of his prep races, I was ready to keep ‘Lucky out of my top 3 positions all season long.  Now that Bob Baffert seems committed to having Lucky try the dirt in the Rebel, I’m interpreting the decision as a confident, bold move by a trainer who thinks he may have something special.  I applaud the decision by Baffert.  The synthetic-to-dirt angle was huge for several runners prepping for the Derby last season, and if not for the freak injury to I Want Revenge, may have been one of the primary story lines about last year’s Derby winner.  Ironically, in a round about way and due to his initial races at Woodbine, the synthetic-to-dirt angle did ultimately factor into the victory of 50/1 longshot Mine That Bird.  Many people that I trust insist this is a special horse.  If he wins big on the dirt in the Rebel against what figures to be a salty field, Eskendereya could have some company at the top of the list.  Also note that ‘Lucky will be wearing a hood for the first time as Baffert tries the blinkers-on approach.

4. Awesome Act

I struggled with where to properly rank the overnight sensation that has invaded our shores from across the pond.  Looked sensational prior to the Gotham and then ran like a horse that meant serious business.  Was the Gotham the toughest race we’ve ever seen?  Absolutely not, and there’s no question he’ll get tested by better horses in his next starts, but the point I’m focusing on his how “much the best” he was.  This guy is a legitimate Derby contender, and he’s got a jockey in Julien Leparoux that you just knew was going to wind up on a big time contender sooner or later.  Full disclosure?  Though I advocated playing against him in the Gotham, he’s probably my 2nd favorite on this list behind Odysseus.

5. Caracortado

I keep thinking of former Eagles and Vikings wide receiver Cris Carter whenever I think of this horse.  “All he does is win horse races.” Now that Lookin at Lucky has shipped east to Arkansas for the Rebel, “Scarface” finds himself the top dog in California at the moment.  I expected him to challenge Lucky if he had remained in California, and it looks like he should have a much easier time now if they chose to keep him local.  It’ll be hard to rank a horse higher until we see them on dirt, but this guy is a proven winner and figures to remain so for the foreseeable future.

If Cris Carter had been a thoroughbred, all he'd do is win horse races.

6. Rule

Probably the horse who suffers the most from the “what have you done for me lately?” syndrome that bloggers like me are self-described masters at.  Todd Pletcher’s run away winner of the Sam F. Davis will likely point to the Wood or the Florida Derby.  Considering Eskendereya is likely Florida Derby bound, my money would be on the Wood as his final destination.

7. Discreetly Mine

The most difficult of the ubiquitous Pletcher clan to put a finger on.  Folks either love him or hate him.  I think he beat 3 quality horses in Ron the Greek, Tempted to Tapit, and Drosselmeyer in the Risen Star.  Up next is likely the Louisiana Derby.  I’m still not sure if he’ll want 10 furlongs, or if he’ll be able to rate effectively, but if he answers positively to both of those questions he’s certainly talented enough to be a factor in the Derby.  In keeping with the theme of discretion in this horse’s name, I’ll confide that I sneakily swapped positions with Rule and Discreetly Mine since our initial rankings were published.

8. Dublin

Sort of an odd addition to the list considering he didn’t race this past weekend and was defeated in his most recent start.  Why the vertical move up my list then?  I toyed with ranking the 1st and 2nd place finishers of the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park in this spot.  The winner, Conveyance, does not appear to be pointing to any local races though, while the place horse, Dublin, will now get to run into yet another Bob Baffert monster in Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel.  I thought Dublin might’ve been the best horse in the Southwest, both before and after the race was run.  Could give Lucky some fits in the Rebel.

9. Conveyance

Another of the Cris Carter type runners that simply goes out and wins races.  The undefeated son Indian Charlie opened his career out west with victories that included the Grade 3 San Rafael on January 16.  The victory in the Southwest at Oaklawn proved he could handle the conventional dirt.  Isn’t that the knock we horseplayers always use on west coast horses until they come east?  Okay, so now that he’s bested that challenge, what next?  Well, thanks to Baffert sending Lookin at Lucky to Oaklawn for the Rebel, Conveyance has seemingly been officially relegated to “plan B” status.  He’ll be headed to the Sunland Park Derby for his next start if current indications prove true.

10.  Sidney’s Candy

I maintain that this could be any kind of horse.  The sensational winner of the San Vicente was at one point rumored to be considering the Gotham at Aqueduct.  Obviously that didn’t happen, and it appears the son of Candy Ride may be the best remaining challenger for Caracortado out of the California crop for the moment while Lucky visits the south.

Others to watch:

I’m keeping my eyes on several horses, including those we mentioned in our initial rankings like Dave in Dixie, Jackson Bend, Buddy’s Saint, Drosselmeyer, and Ron the Greek.  I guess you could add Alphie’s Bet to that list following his performance in the Sham.

One horse you may notice I haven’t mentioned yet is Super Saver.  I know many are extremely high on him and one might think that fresh off of the experience of publicly doubting Awesome Act I might be inclined to be accepting of such highly touted horses, but my thoughts remain that I need to see something for 2010 from this horse before I add him to the list.

Guess what?  He gets a chance to prove that to you and me this weekend, so the wait won’t be long.  It just so happens it’s my boy Odysseus he’s running against, and it goes without saying where my heart will be in that race.  Hopefully my wallet doesn’t follow with reckless abandon.


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Derby Rankings – An Exercise in Futility

22 02 2010

If the previous week has taught us anything, it’s that attempting to rank the prospects for the 2010 Kentucky Derby is a largely futile act that is rife with subjection, beset by imperfections, and of course a lightning rod for controversy.  Headed into the weekend, most folks (including yours truly) had Buddy’s Saint ranked in the top 3 on their Derby watch lists.  All that changed on Saturday following a hellacious trip in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park.

So where do we stand now?  Well, there is no definitively correct answer.  What follows is most certainly not an attempt to predict who may eventually outmaneuver each other in jockeying for a starting spot in the Derby, nor a reflection on the actual overall talent of the horses in question.  Doubtless, this list will continue to move wildly all over the place from week to week, with venerable favorites dropping like 10,000 pound rocks, and virtual unknowns rising to the top like some UFO shaped balloon purportedly piloted by young Falcon Heene.

In other words, it’s just my humble opinion – and only serves as a snapshot of this moment in time.  Indeed, my opinion on some of these runners changes from moment to moment. I’m willing to bet a good number of these horses don’t even get to so much as sniff the Kentucky air the first Saturday in May.  Probably the only authors out there who can pull off the “Derby watch list trick” with any real acumen are Steve Haskin and his “Derby Dozen” over on Bloodhorse, and Ron Correll over at TrackSideView.  With that said, let’s get on with the show, shall we?

1. ESKENDEREYA

Todd Pletcher’s runner moves into poll position for the moment based off his strong effort in the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes on 2/20.  Personally, I still have plenty of concerns about his more forwardly placed running style, as well as the way the Fountain of Youth essentially fell into his lap with the way Buddy’s Saint was handled, but there’s no denying that was a very good effort over the likes of such highly touted competitors as the aforementioned favorite (Buddy’s Saint), Aikenite, Pulsion, and Jackson Bend.  I’m not sure if any of the other runners in that field have legitimate shots at becoming Derby contenders, but this son of Giant’s Causeway did what he needed to do to move forward off of his Allowance level victory last out.   Whenever a horse shows improvement like that at a lower level, and then comes back and proves they can run to that same level against better – it tells me he’s a serious race horse.  I cannot see myself keeping this guy on top of this list for long as there’s now way I’d bet him if the Derby were tomorrow, but for now I’ll give him a tepid nod for the top spot.  Admittedly, I’m probably drinking the “what have you done for me lately” kool-aid here.

2. ODYSSEUS

You may have missed him if you blinked this past week.  That’s largely because he wasn’t running in the more highly heralded major prep races on Saturday.  Nope, instead, pulling his own Boise St. routine, Odysseus romped on a Wednesday afternoon over Allowance runners at Tampa Bay.  I know – that’s not exactly a hotbed for sudden Derby sensations to come stomping out of, but there’s something special about this guy.  He’s bred magnificently, and I love the way he dispatched winners the first time out so confidently.  If you remember what Curlin first looked like to you watching the replay of the Rebel in 2007, or the way Big Brown looked in his 2008 debut, I think there may be a little bit of that going on here.  We’ll obviously learn a lot more about this colt next out as he’s going to have to pick up some graded stakes earnings.  Is he a contender or a pretender?  For now, I’m sticking with contender and jumping squarely on the bandwagon.  I’ll say this for certain:  The entire 2010 Triple Crown season will be infinitely more “epic” if a horse named Odysseus is around.

3. DISCREETLY MINE

Another prep race, another Todd Pletcher trained winner.  The son of Mineshaft had never been over a mile before, but proved on Saturday in the G2 Risen Star that he could handle 8.5 furlongs with relative ease.  He’s another in Pletcher’s barn that has found himself setting the pace recently, and the world waits with bated breath to ensure these horses can eventually show signs of being able to win from coming off the pace.  I think of this horse as an x-factor, as folks seem to either be enormously high on him, or enormously critical.  I’m ranking him this high because I thought he was up against it taking on Drosselmeyer, Tempted to Tapit, and Ron the Greek – 3 horses that were being highly touted by folks whispering about possible Derby contenders.  None of them had anything for Discreetly Mine, who was never in doubt for a single step of the way.  Now, does he want to go 10 furlongs?  I’m not sure.  Pletcher probably considers Eskendereya and Rule his 1, 2 punches at the moment, but Discreetly Mine isn’t a bad plan-C to have around.

4.  RULE

Man, are we ever going to get away from Todd Pletcher’s runner?   This is absolute insanity.  Three of the top Four spots?  I think the most obvious observation is that these can’t possibly remain the way they are for long.  Rule  ran away with the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay earlier in the month.  Pletcher immediately commented that a Grade 1 race would be next (take your guess at which though).  Either way, he’s likely to run into tougher competition, including perhaps a stablemate or two.  I’m still not entirely sold that this is a top notch Derby horse, but based on his performance in the Sam F. Davis, he deserves to be ranked highly for now.

5.  LOOKIN AT LUCKY

I’d rank him a lot higher if I had any idea how he’d perform on dirt.  I know he’s impressive, and I know he’s very highly regarded, especially by our friends on the west coast that have had a chance to see him in person, but I can’t help but remember that  he lost in his own backyard to Vale of York in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  Baffert has mentioned he thinks Lucky will do well on dirt, and we must remember that several horses (I Want Revenge, Papa Clem, etc.) showed marked improvement coming east and taking the synthetic-to-dirt approach last year.   Another thing working in Lucky’s favor – this could be the year that the California 3-year-old crop is markedly better than its east coast rival.  In years past I’ve been a bit too high on the CA crop – maybe this year is the one not to be too critical?  I still want to see one dirt performance before making a final decision.

6.  VALE OF YORK

Arguably the hardest horse to keep on this list, despite the fact that he’s the reigning 2-year-old champion of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  He’s been in Dubai and is now headed to Europe and may not even make it to the Derby, but his exploits as a 2-year-old suggest he deserves to at least be a part of the discussion at the Derby table.  You’re going to have to keep your eye on him if you are following along, as you aren’t likely to hear a whole lot about him.  In fact, I’m almost certain that within a month it will be impossible to continue to rank him here, but until someone else impresses me equally, he’s here.  Being totally transparent, I will say that cashing a win bet at greater than 30/1 on Breeders’ Cup weekend on Vale of York definitely earned a soft spot in my heart for this son of Invincible Spirit.

7.  CARACORTADO

How can you not love a horse that is named for Al Pacino’s infamous Tony Montana character in the film Scarface?  ”Say hello to my lil’ friend!”  I’ve yet to see this guy race live, but many feel he’s going to give Lucky more than a handful if they both stay in California and take the Santa Anita Derby path to Churchill Downs.  A son of Cat Dreams, all he does is win over the synthetics.  He made short work of two highly touted Derby hopefuls in American Lion and Tiz Chrome (neither of whom looked particularly impressive) in the Robert Lewis.

8. JACKSON BEND

Stays on this list despite being dropped from many such lists across the country.  I just couldn’t knock the guy following 2 game efforts for place in the G3 Holy Bull (behind the now-injured Winslow Homer) and the G2 Fountain of Youth (behind current top dog Eskendereya).  So much for the knock that he was just a slightly above average Calder horse, or so it would appear.  The son of Hear no Evil rides for the Nick Zito barn, and has been either first or second in all 8 lifetime races.  We can say one thing with certainty: he has a knack for factoring into the exacta.

9. SIDNEY’S CANDY

Most folks remember 2009 as a solid season for the offspring of Candy Ride, most notably with Kentucky Derby hopeful Chocolate Candy.  Sidney’s Candy is yet another of the impressive looking Candy Ride line, and this one comes with a ton more speed than Chocolate Candy ever had.  I’ll be honest – this is an aggressive ranking – and a spot I seriously considered sticking instead with either Buddy’s Saint or Ron the Greek.   What has me sold on Sidney is potential.  He dropped jaws with his win in the San Vicente, and according to Ron Correll at Tracksideview, may be headed to the Gotham stakes next.  Could be any kind of horse.

10. BLIND LUCK

Just a few years ago, people would’ve scoffed at the notion of including a filly in a top 10 list for the Kentucky Derby.  Thanks to the recent exploits of fillies like Eight Belles, Rags to Riches, and of course Rachel Alexandra, such critics have been largely silenced.  Let’s be frank here (“stop calling me Shirley!!!”), in all likelihood she’s going to stay against 3-year-old fillies and will not face a colt the entire season.  At this point in time there’s absolutely no reason to suspect that her connections will even contemplate a run against 19 colts in the Kentucky Derby, and I can’t say I blame them for those sentiments.  I’ll admit that I’m holding out hope that she “pulls a Rachel” and winds up in Baltimore for the Preakness, but even that is probably wishful thinking at best.  I will say this – the colts rank higher than her on this list do not scare me enough to think she doesn’t still belong in the discussion.  Based on talent alone, if news were to drop tomorrow that her connections were thinking of the Derby, she’d move up several places on this list and become a serious contender.   Before you laugh, just remember that I said the same thing at this point in time last year about Rachel Alexandra, and the same thing in 2008 about Eight Belles and Pure Clan.

OTHER NOTABLES

Obviously you can’t rank everyone on your list.  I still think RON THE GREEK is a horse to keep an eye on.  He didn’t get much pace to run at  in the Risen Star and that probably cost him.  I’m also pretty high on DUBLIN (who gave a solid account of himself in the Southwest) and DAVE IN DIXIE, who is another that appears could be any kind of horse and is one to keep an eye on.  I’m going to make BUDDY”S SAINT and horses like SUPER SAVER show me something before they are brought back into the discussion.

Supremely disappointing this week?  DROSSELMEYER – where the heck was he in the Risen Star?  He seemed to be a consensus top 10 horse wherever you looked.  Huge disappointment.  I’m giving BUDDY”S SAINT some mercy here but not delving deeper into his debacle, but suffice to say that the whole trip was a nightmare.

So that’s where I stand for the moment.  What about you guys?


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Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Selections

4 11 2009

These Breeders’ Cup races for 2-year-olds…they’re just so…oh, what’s the word I’m looking for?  JUVENILE!

As we turn our attention to the Grade 1 Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the focus is on babies – babies who in just a few short months might be captivating the world in the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont.  Of course, that’s seldom the case, apart from Street Sense back in 2007, but the possibility is still one that gives the race a sense of mystique that makes it worth watching, even if it doesn’t exactly feature the biggest household names of the sport.  Give them time, and some of these guys are bound to leave their mark.  If nothing else, the sky is the limit – as we’ve doubtless yet to see the best this group has to offer. 

The field sets up as follows:

  1. Alfred Nobel (20/1)
  2. Piscitelli (50/1)
  3. Beethoven (20/1)
  4. Noble’s Promise (8/1)
  5. D’Funnybone (5/2)
  6. Pulsion (20/1)
  7. Vale of York (20/1)
  8. Eskendereya (10/1)
  9. Aikenite (8/1)
  10.  Aspire (30/1)
  11.  Radiohead (15/1)
  12.  William’s Kitten (30/1)
  13.  Lookin At Lucky (8/5*)

Radiohead – what the hell is he doin’ here?  He don’t belong here.

ALFRED NOBEL is the nobly named son of Danehill Dancer being sent to post for acclaimed trainer Aidan O’Brien.  Jockey Johnny Murtagh will once again climb aboard and thus present us with the same connections that we saw aboard Mastercraftsman in the Dirt Mile, and will see again with Rip Van Winkle in the Classic.  He won 3 in a row sprinting back ing Ireland earlier this year, with Murtagh aboard for each victory.  The question would seem to be whether he’ll like the 8 1/2 furlong distance of the Juvenile?  I’m admittedly not familiar with the 2-year-olds he’s faced across the pond, but it would seem this one has a chance at a square price.

PISCITELLI is a horse that I almost dismissed outright based on name alone.  He happens to share names with a much maligned defensive back for the equally much maligned Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFL.  Leaving that aside for a moment, he seems to be a gradually improving type, although he’s had trouble finding the winner’s circle since breaking his maiden. He does at least have some synthetic form to consider, although he was soundly beaten by a few of his rivals last out in the Breeders’ Futurity (Grade 1) last out.  Must continue to improve to score here.

BEETHOVEN tossed me for a bit of a loop when I first saw his name, as we had a horse with the same name among the U.S. 3-year-old crop this year.  Obviously this guy is different, and he could wind up being better.  With Murtagh opting to ride ALFRED NOBEL, Moore will take the mount on this entry for Aidan O’Brien.  He’s a Group 1 winner overseas, having taken the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket (GB) last out.  Like most, must also answer the distance question to prevail.

NOBLE’S PROMISE is a very intriguing son of Cuvee for trainer Ken McPeek, the man who is famously credited with first spotting Curlin.  A winner of 3 straight, he’s climbed steadily from the ranks of maidens to Grade 1 winners.  An old rule of thumb I abide bye is that the best horses make that climb very quickly, and this guy couldn’t have done so any faster.  Add to that his proven synthetic form and the juicy 8/1 morning line odds and I’m ready to make this guy my top pick.  He should be close up in 2nd or 3rd early on and will look to get first jump on the leader(s).

D’FUNNYBONE is the “buzz” horse for trainer Richard Dutrow Jr.  The son of D’Wildcat has won his last two efforts in Grade 2 races back in New York in highly impressive fashion.  The trouble for me is that Dutrow isn’t exactly known for being a top synthetic trainer. If this race were on dirt, I’d have to support him, but having to answer the synthetic question and going the seemingly always unpopular dirt-to-synthetic angle (the red-headed step child of synthetic handicapping angles, for whatever reason) makes me just a tad gun-shy.  Could well be the best horse in the field when all is said and done.

PULSION is an off the pace type who seems to be rounding into form nicely for trainer Patrick Biancone.  It took him 3 tries to break his maiden, and he wound up 2nd in his first try against winners – but that was a Grade 1, so don’t think for a moment he can’t move forward again.  Mike Smith stays aboard for Juvenile.  Could be a sneaky play if he continues to progress.

VALE OF YORK is the Godolphin invader for trainer Saeed bin Suroor.  Like ALFRED NOBEL, I know nothing about hat he’s faced, but this son of Invincible Spirit obviously has some talent under the hood as he’s been competing at the Group 1 and 2 levels lately.  Possibility.

ESKENDEREYA ships in from New York for trainer Todd Pletcher.  The son of Gian’ts Causeway romped to break his maiden at the stakes level in the Pilgrim ($152k) last month – a confident move from his connections considering he had lost in his maiden debut.  He’s been training well enough at Belmont building up for this.  Could be a surprise package if he takes to the Pro Ride.  The trouble for me (and most bettors) is that there simply isn’t a whole lot to go on to suggest that he will beyond gut instinct.  My gut tells me he handles the surface fine. 

AKENITE is a very interesting runner, again for trainer Todd Pletcher.  In fact, he appears to be Pletcher’s “A-horse” for this race, and will retain the services of jockey Alan Garcia – who was lights out this summer at Saratoga.  There’s a lot to like about this son of Yes It’s True.  He’s won on both dirt and synthetics (at Keeneland), which suggests he’ll transition to Santa Anita’s Pro Ride just fine.  Further, he’s won at this distance. I think he’s a very legit player in this race and the 8/1 odds are extremely attractive.

ASPIRE – if ever there was a horse named for this blog to support, it’s this guy.  The son of Tale of the Cat broke his maiden in his debut, and has since run 2nd in the Hopeful, and a close 3rd in the Champagne Stakes.  Two very nice looking colts have beaten him in those last two efforts; Dublin and Homeboykris.  Chalk this guy up as another contender in an extremely deep betting race.

RADIOHEAD - He’s so very special. He’s a creep. He’s a weirdo.  What the hell is he doing here?  He don’t belong here!  (Run Away!!!). All kidding aside, this guy has the coolest name of the field. In case you’re wondering about those first few sentences, they are part of the 90′s classic anthem “Creep” by the band of the same name as this son of Johannesburg.  Focusing on the horse for a moment, we’re looking at yet another apparently live European shipper that has been running competitively at the Group 1 and 2 levels overseas.  He’ll have to overcome the post position and take to the Pro Ride, but he’s yet another possibility.  As an added bonus, since like me you are no doubt handicapping the marathon that is the BC, enjoy the added music of “Creep” by Radiohead as a brief respite in honor of this, the most badassed named horse of the entire Breeders’ Cup.  Take the break – you’ve earned it if you’ve read this far! 

WILLIAM’S KITTEN is a longshot for trainer Michael Maker that appears outmatched on paper.  That being said, Maker is quite the accomplished horsemen, so who am I to question this placement?  Must step up big time to factor.

LOOKIN AT LUCKY is your 8/5 morning line favorite and will line up at the extreme outside post position #13.  Sure, he’s won all 4 of his lifetime starts, and the son of Smart Strike is also perfect over the California plastics, but has he ever had to break from out here in no man’s land?  On the plus side, with nobody to his outside, he’ll probably get a clean break – which is something you always have to worry about any time you line up 14 2-year-olds like this.  It actually might be a blessing rather than a hinderance.  I just can’t take 8/5 from all the way out here in a race this deep.  I think he’s a fine colt, and Bob Baffert has certainly proven he can prepare horses with the best of them, but I’ll be trying to beat him most likely. 

I’m going to use NOBLE’S PROMISE as my top selection here and then use one of the more obvious selections in LOOKIN AT LUCKY directly underneath.  AKENITE, ASPIRE, ESKENDEREYA, D’FUNNYBONE, and RADIOHEAD are all about equal in my next tier, but I really want to size up some of these Europeans with my eyeballs before finalizing things.  For now I’ll go with RADIOHEAD as my third choice, if only because he’s a creep and weirdo.  :)

Selections:

  • #4 Noble’s Promise (8/1)
  • #13 Lookin At Lucky (8/5*)
  • #11 Radiohead (15/1)

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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Santa Anita


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