Zenyatta’s return highlights BIG weekend of racing action

9 10 2009

Another weekend is upon us.  Is it just me, or does this seem to happen like clockwork every 7 days?  Very strange.  You’ll forgive me for drifting here and there as we’ve got twelve big races to cover in what promises to be an exciting weekend of racing.  The biggest (and baddest) name on the entries is obviously Zenyatta – the undefeated mare attempting to equal the feat of Personal Ensign by winning her 13th consecutive start of her career. 

Here’s a quick roundup of the major races being run at Belmont Park, Keeneland, and at Santa Anita’s Oak Tree meet.  I’ve organized them by order of post time so that they flow in sequence – which means we’ll be bouncing between the tracks a bit here. 

Belmont – Race 4 – The Jamaica Handicap (Grade 1) – 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) – 2:35 (ET)

We kick things off with the 60th running of the Jamaica H.   The two horses that appear to have the biggest shot here are #2 COURAGEOUS CAT and #6 TAKE THE POINTS.  The latter we know from the Preakness earlier in the year and his victory in the Grade 1 Secretariat on August 8.  COURAGEOUS CAT is the horse I’ve got to take here.  Despite being the morning line favorite at 2/1, he might wind up offering slightly better value if TAKE THE POINTS takes a lot of money at the windows. The son of Storm Cat is also named for one of my favorite childhood cartoon stars.  Most folks don’t remember Courageous Cat and Minute Mouse, but I do.  #3 GRASSY looks like a runner with a big shot in here as well.  I could also make a case for adding in #7 MR SANDMAN and #1 STRAIGHT STORY on the bottom of the exotics. 

Selections:

  • #2 Courageous Cat (2/1*)
  • #6 Take the Points (5/2)
  • #3 Grassy (6/1)

 

Keeneland – Race 5 – The Woodford (Grade 3) – 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) – 3:23 (ET)

We visit Keeneland for the first time today for the 13th running of The Woodford.  I’m not much of a turf sprint handicapper, and I know it’s one of my weaker areas, so we’ll keep this one simple.  I like #2 MR. NIGHTLINGER in here, despite the 2/1 odds. The son of Indian Charlie has not had quite the banner year many of us expected to have, with only 1 victory thus far in 5 starts.  One of the main reasons I’m backing him though is that he’s got talent and shows early speed – something which can be noteworthy from time to time at Keeneland.  He will be tested though, as #7 SILVER TIMBER looks like a good one for trainer Chad Brown.  The son of Prime Timber is the most likely to get first run at MR. NIGHTLINGER if he can’t hold on out in front.  #6 DIE DATE is another horse worth considering in this field.  He gives you a consistently even effort every time out, although he may be better suited for the bottom of exotic tickets.  Other horses worth ticket consideration would appear to be #5 BULLET FROM ABROAD and #8 FORT PRADO. 

Selections:

  • #2 Mr. Nightlinger (2/1*)
  • #7 Silver Timber (5/2)
  • #6 Due Date (7/2)

 

Keeneland – Race 6 – The Thoroughbred Club of America (Grade 2) – 6 Furlongs – 4:00 (ET)

We stay in Keeneland for the 29th running of the TCA.  #8 INFORMED DECISION is the overwhelming favorite on the morning line at 3/5.  While that might be cause to try and beat her, the daughter of former Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos has proven deadly (3 for 3) at Keeneland in her career.  She’s also won all 5 of her synthetic starts.  Just keep that in mind if you try to take her down.  The most logical contender would seem to be #6 CARLSBAD, who comes off a Grade 3 victory at Delmar last out. Tyler Baze is the listed rider, meaning he’s left the friendly confines of California.  There’s enough value here on the morning line (5/1) to warrant stong consideration. #5 BOLD UNION is another interesting runner who comes off a Grade 3 victory at Delaware.  The Dixie Union filly has only raced once over the synthetics, and it was nothing to write home about, but she does have speed and that can be a big factor in sprint races. I like the two “Ashley” horses (#1 AWESOME ASHLEY and #4 PIOUS ASHLEY) enough to include them on the bottom of my tickets, and I might take a chance underneath with #3 PORTE BONHEUR as well, as she’s proven she can handle the synthetics at Woodbine last November. 

Selections:

  • #8 Informed Decision (3/5*)
  • #6 Carlsbad (5/1)
  • #5 Bold Union (6/1)

 

Keeneland – Race 7 – The First Lady (Grade 1) – 1 Mile (Turf) – 4:35 (ET)

You know, we just love Keeneland so much that we’ll hang around for another race, whaddya think?  The First Lady is for fillies and mares 3-and-up going 1 mile over the turf.  #5 FOREVER TOGETHER is currently listed atop most rankings of oder turf females in the U.S., and will be the morning line favorite at even odds.  The daughter of Belong to Me was absolutely dominating at times last year, but has had some trouble putting together consistent victories this year.  If her current pattern of running 1st, 2nd – 1st, 2nd continues, she’s due for a victory.  If only it were that simple.  Working in her favor will be the fact that she gets a little pace to run into with #4 TIZAQUEENA and #9 SUPERIOR STORM on her flanks.  That should help her have a big race.  #6 MY PRINCESS JESS and #8 DIAMONDRELLA are two runners who could also get good trips and who would obviously offer more value on the tote board.  At least work them into your exotics.

Selections:

  • #5 Forever Together (3/5*)
  • # 6 My Princess Jess (6/1)
  • #4 Tizaqueena (12/1)

 

Belmont – Race 8 – The Frizette (Grade 1) – 1 Mile – 4:43 (ET)

It’s back to New York for the 62nd running of the Frizette for 2-year-old fillies. #3 NONA MIA looks like the horse to beat here coming off an impressive 12 length score out to break her maiden.  Being a daughter of Empire Maker, I’m not as concerned about how she’ll handle the distance as perhaps I ought to be. #4 AWESOME MARIA should have a say as to how things turn out as well.  The daughter of Maria’s Mon is already a Grade 2 winner having defeated several of today’s rivals in the Matron on September 19.  The rest of the field looks fairly even behind these two.  #6 FRANNY FREUD, #5 TOUCHING BEAUTY, and #2 DEVIL MAY CARE all came up as having chances to hit the board based on my own personal handicapping methods, as did #7 WORSHIP THE MOON.  I’ll probably box the top two choices on top and then take all of these guys on the bottom of the trifecta.  That’s my initial plan at least.  We’ll see if se can get a good look at them in the post parade to narrow it down a bit more.  I went with TOUCHING BEAUTY as my 3rd choice by a slim margin – mostly due to the fact that she was sired by Tapit. 

Selections:

  • #3 Nonna Mia (5/2)
  • #4 Awesome Maria (2/1*)
  • #5 Touching Beauty (5/1)

 

 

Santa Anita (Oak Tree)  – Race 4 – The Yellow Ribbon (Grade 1) – 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) – 2:00 (PT)

Time to head out west to the lovely Oak Tree meet at Santa Anita for the 33rd running of the Yellow Ribbon.  The two big names in this field are #1 MAGICAL FANTASY and #7 VISIT.  MAGICAL FANTASY exits 3 consecutive victories, including two at the Grade 1 level in the John C Mabee and the Gamely.  This is clearly one of the better turf mares on the California circuit and she should be respected as such. VISIT is a 4-year-old that has always seemed on the cusp of greatness, yet has a tendency to run for minor slices of the pie.  Garrett Gomez will get acquainted once again with the daughter of Oasis Dream , who should be firing at about the same time as MAGICAL FANTASY.  This could be a good battle between these two runners in the stretch.  As for the rest of the field, #4 BLACK MAMBA is a dangerous runner who can jump up and run a big one from time to time. Trainer John Sadler might have her primed for a big effort this weekend.  I’m also familiar enough with both #2 LEMONETTE and #3 LEMON CHIFFON that I’ll probably include them on the bottom of my tickets as well.  If I’m not mistaken, LEMON CHIFFON was one of the horses I hit at the NTRA Handicapping Contest last fall in Las Vegas. 

Selections:

  • #1 Magical Fantasy (8/5*)
  • #7 Visit (5/1)
  • #4 Black Mamba (5/2)

 

Keeneland – Race 8 – The Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (Grade 1) – 1 1/16 Miles – 5:10 (ET)

Now we head back to Kentucky for more 2-year-old action in the Breeders’ Futurity.  The colt I’m most anxious to see here is #2 BACKTALK.  The son of Smarty Jones had won 3 in a row to start his career before drawing the 12 hole last out in the Hopeful.  Will he like the synthetics at Keeneland?  Well, if his bullet workout there on October 5 is any indication, he out to handle the surface switch just fine.  That being said, I’m going with #8 AKENITE as my top choice.  Why?  Well, the son of Yes it’s True will offer some value at the windows, and might be overlooked.  Plus, look at that last race where he lost to Dublin and Aspire.  Those two are the top choices for the Champagne, run just 5 minutes later at Belmont (and coming up next in our selections).  If those two are among the best in the young and developing division, then that could be a race to key on.   Maybe if they don’t leave him with as much to do and go for a more even effort?  It’s worth a chance is all i’m saying.  #7 MAKE MUSIC FOR ME is a logical contender as well, coming off back-to-back runner-up finishes in the Best Pal and the Delmar Futurity.  I have some questions about how this one will handle the distance, but I like that they’ve trained her at 7 furlongs following a game effort at that same distance. Note that Tyler Baze will also be aboard this runner, so he’s got a couple of potentially live mounts on the card.  A horse that might get overlooked and is in all honesty probably compromised by their starting position is #14 STATELY VICTOR.  Don’t be surprised if this son of Ghostzapper goes on to become the best horse of this field in due time. Whether he shows that on Saturday not is a bit of question mark, but I think he’s worth at least including underneath.   There’s plenty of other directions you could go here, depending on which horse you may already be familiar with or have developed some affection for.

Selections:

  • #8 Akenite (5/1)
  • #2 Backtalk (4/1*)
  • #7 Make Music for Me (6/1)

 

Belmont – Race 9 – The Champagne (Grade 1) – 1 Mile – 5:15 (ET)

We head back to New York for the final time this afternoon for the Champagne.  If you start reading this and feel as though you’re having deja vu, don’t worry – we did just talk about some of these runners.  #5 DUBLIN comes into the race as the victor of the Hopeful at Saratoga.  In that race he held on to deny #3 ASPIRE, who will get the benefit of an extra furlong in his attempt to turn the tables on his rival.  Don’t I kind of have to go with a horse named ASPIRE since this is The Aspiring Horseplayer?  That’s just too strong a vibe for me to pass up.  In all honesty, I rate these two extremely close to one another, and while if my life depended on it, I’d probably side with DUBLIN, I”ll take a chance and go with ASPIRE here.  The horse that might be the x-factor here is #6 HOMEBOYKRIS for Rick Dutrow Jr.  #4 DISCREETLY MINE also rates a chance here as this son of Mineshaft did run well against Dutrow’s other prized possession in the 2-year-old division thus far, D’Funnybone.

Selections:

  • #3 Aspire (3/1)
  • #5 Dublin (8/5*)
  • #6 Homeboykris (6/1)

 

Keeneland – Race 9 – The Shadwell Turf Mile (Grade 1) – 1 Mile (Turf) -5:45 (ET)

The finale of the marquee races at Keeneland for Saturday is the 24th running of the Shadwell Turf Mile.  I’ll consider taking a chance here with #9 COURT VISION, despite the fact that the son of Gulch has not won a race since the Hollywood Derby last November. He’s running for Dutrow now, which in itself is cause for improvement, and adds the blinkers back on, which he’s had off the last 3 races.  Call me crazy but I think this helps keep him focused in the stretch and gives him a chance for the upset.  The monster of the race though is #7 JUSTENUFFHUMOR.  The son of Distorted Humor exits 6 consecutive victories, including the Bernard Baruch Handicap last out at Saratoga.  If he’s good enough to beat my boy Cowboy Cal, he’s good enough to take this field. #5 BATTLE OF HASTINGS is a horse I’ve given out several times here successfully, so you know he’ll be on my tickets again.

Selections:

  • #7 Justenuffhumor (5/2*)
  • #9 Court Vision (7/2)
  • #5 Battle of Hastings (5/1)

 

Santa Anita (Oak Tree) – Race 6 – The Oak Tree Mile (Grade 2) – 1 Mile (Turf) – 3:00 (PT)

Things get a little bit calmer as we head out west to stay to finish up the day, beginning with the Oak Tree Mile.  Notice that there’s a theme here today where I talk about a horse in one race, and he shows up in the next.  #9 COWBOY CAL comes into the Mile having finished 2nd in the Bernard Baruch.  There’s something about this guy that I really admire.  He’s a gamer – and I think he could be in store for a big effort.  He’ll need to avoid a speed duel with #7 MONTERREY JAZZ though, and ought to press the pace from 2nd to give himself his best chance.  Coming off the pace will be #10 WHATSTHESCRIPT and #4 GLOBAL HUNTER, who each have big shots in here as well.  I’m going to stick with my COWBOY CAL on top, with GLOBAL HUNTER running big for 2nd.  WHATSTHESCRIPT has a tendency to run 3rd or 4th, and I’ll use him on the bottom.  Do give some props to the filly, #8 ALLICANSAYIS WOW – as she steps up to take on boys again.  She ran well for 2nd in the Delmar Mile, and finished ahead of Lethal Heat, a horse who (you guessed it) will come up again later in our picks.  I’d also keep MONTERREY JAZZ around in your tickets, being as that he is the speed of the speed.

Selections:

  • #9 Cowboy Cal (2/1*)
  • #4 Global Hunter (8/1)
  • #10 Whatsthescript (5/2)

 

Santa Anita (Oak Tree) – Race 7 – The Goodwood (Grade 1) – 1 1/8 Miles – 3:30 (PT)

The feature race of the day is the final major prep for the Breeders’ Cup Classic – the 28th running of the Goodwood.  Wht a race we’ve got in store.  #4 COLONEL JOHN tries to get back to his winning ways on the main track following a disappointing 5th place finish in the Pacific Classic.  I thought the son o f Tiznow had a horrible trip that day and am expecting the real COLONEL JOHN to show up again this weekend.  He was, after all, my Derby selection back in 2008.  Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert brings the hot longshot winner #3 RICHARD’S KID in for the Goodwood with visions of the Classic dancing in his head.  Was that last win in the Pacific Classic a fluke, or has Baffert turned this guy into a top runner?  I wouldn’t let Bob Baffert burn you twice, if you know what I mean.  Of course, there are also some runners in here both seeking to regain respect and who are favorites of many fans.  #2 TIAGO is one class=”mceItemHidden”> of the few remnants of the talented 2007 crop of 3-year-olds that produced Curlin, Street Sense, and Hard Spun. Tiago always was in their shadows, and despite ome success as a 4-year-old and some sexy Beyer figures on his resume, he’s only won $24,000 in 2 starts this year.  If he comes back like his old self, he actually makes some sense here.  This is the same team, remember, that gave the world Zenyatta (and Giacomo).  #5 TRES BORRACHOS still has the coolest name in all of racing (“3 drunks”).  And of course, there’s that guy that won the Kentucky Derby at 50/1, #10 MINE THAT BIRD.  How great would it be to see the son of Birdstone come back and run a big race?  He’s been on synthetics before – hell, he’s won on ‘em before, so if his throat surgery has got him back to the way he was this spring, he could make some noise here in his 1st start against older horses.   I haven’t even had a chance to mention #9 INFORMED (son of Tiznow), #6 MONZANTE (winner of the 2008 Eddie Read), and #7  PARADING (disappointing 4th in the Pacific Classic last out).  This looks like a great race – hopefully a glimmer of things to come on Breeders’ Cup weekend this November.

Selections:

  • #4 Colonel John (3/1*)
  • #4 Richard’s Kid (8/1)
  • #10 Mine That Bird (7/2)

 

Santa Anita (Oak Tree – Race 8 – The Lady’s Secret (Grade 1) – 1 1/16 Miles – 4:00 (PT)

We wind up the day with the return of the undefeated Zenyatta – the super star of west coast thoroughbred racing.  I’ve covered this race already for the NTRA, and you’re welcome to read my assessment there.  The biggest question we’ll be looking to answer won’t come until after the race, once trainer John Shirreffs has had a chance to see how ZENYATTA comes out of the race.  That will ultimately determine whether she runs against boys on the Classic on Saturday, or defends her crown against the Ladies’ on Friday in the Breeders’ Cup.  Last time we saw her, ZENYATTA was flying home like a rocket towards a desperate photo finish with longshot #8 ANAABA’S CREATION.  This race could play out in similar fashion without an abundance of speed signed on.  Also note the presence of #1 COCOA BEACH, who in case folks forgot ran 2nd behind ZENYATTA in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic last year here at Santa Anita.  Hopefully we can get a good gauge on how she’s shaping up heading into the championships as well.  Stablemate #4 LIFE IS SWEET draws the misfortune of facing the monster that is ZENYATTA once again, after earlier reports that she would be pointing towards a turf race.  Then there’s #6 LETHAL HEAT, who just ran against the boys last weekend in the Cal Cup Classic (finishing 2nd).  She comes right back in what should be her final tune up for the Ladies’ Classic as well.  I think the class of ZENYATTA is too much for ‘em all in the end.  Look for ANAABA”S CREATIOn or COCOA BEACH underneath in second.  I’ll give LETHAL HEAT a big shot to hit the board as well along with LIFE IS SWEET.

Selections:

  • #5 Zenyatta (2/5*)
  • #8 Anaaba’s Creation (12/1)
  • #1 Cocoa Beach (6/1)

 

Whew – I need a break after all that ‘capping.  :)

Best of luck to all – and don’t forget about Icon Project this Sunday in the Spinster at Keeneland.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Colonel John, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Keeneland, Mine That Bird, Santa Anita, Tiago, Zenyatta

The Rachel Alexandra Rant; no Rachel in the Belmont

29 05 2009

It’s official.  Owner Jess Jackson has announced that the talented and immensely popular filly Rachel Alexandra will not be running in the 2009 Belmont.  This sets up perfectly for jockey Calvin Borel, who will now retake the mount of Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird in his quest for an all-Calvin Triple Crown.  Sadly, for bloggers like me with a penchant for gratuitous military history references, this negates my ability to discuss the potential rematch between The Derby and Preakness winners as “June 6th, a date that will once again live in infamy” (which I’m fairly certain is an oxymoron considering that once something is truly “infamous”, it’s rather impossible to become infamous once again…you either are infamous, or your not, but I digress). 

First, let me say that I tip my hat to Jess Jackson once again.  You know that he wanted to showcase his filly  in the Belmont, and it probably pains him to have to decide against running her. However, this move proves that he’s not just in this for fame and glory.  Like I’ve  said before, the man made all the right moves with Curlin, and once again he appears to be doing so with Rachel Alexandra.  In fact, the only move he’s ever made that I’ve disagreed with is one in which he really had little choice anyhow;  sending Curlin to Santa Anita to run in the ’08 Breeders’ Cup…and it’s important to note that he made the decision to send him for us, the fans, so that we would be able to see him on the sport’s biggest stage.  In other words, while I had a hunch (and no doubt Jess did himself as well) that wouldn’t go well, one can certainly understand why the decision was made. 

The decision to rest Rachel Alexandra has already sparked quite a bit of passionate discussion on the net.  Whether it be Twitter, Facebook, or any other web application out there designed for such discussions, horse fans are talking.   Of course, they’ve been talking longer than just today.  The past few weeks being filled with opinions from one side of the spectrum to the other regarding Rachel, the Bird, and everything in between.  What troubles me though is some of the recent discussion, and I’ll outline why.

The first genre of discussion that bothers me goes something like this: 

  • “I’m glad Rachel isn’t in the Belmont, she’s a filly and would’ve risked being hurt.”  

Look, I totally sympathize with horse fans who don’t want to see anyone hurt.  Nobody wants to see that.  It’s not that concern that worries me so much as it is the hidden inference that somehow fillies are inferior to colts.  Do we really need any further proof that this is simply not true (at least as a blanket statement)?  They said the same thing about the Preakness, and then Rachel went out and dominated.   I don’t recall hearing anyone in France being concerned that Zarkava was facing boys in the world’s richest turf race, the Arc de Triomphe.   How’d that one turn out?   How about Goldikova last year in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile?  And is there anyone who really thinks after the Milady that Zenyatta wouldn’t thrash the California boys at Hollywood, Santa Anita, or Del Mar?   I just don’t get it.  Surely not all fillies are created equal, so when you’ve got one who is clearly heads and shoulders better than most runners on the planet why should she be held back?   Because she’s a “she”?  See, I worry sometimes that folks are masking latent sexism behind a thin veil of legitimate concern over injuries/well being.  The truth of the matter is that anyone at anytime can get hurt.   If we apply this logic across the board, then clearly following Barbaro’s injury we should have stopped all colts from running as well. 

The next line of comments goes something like this:

  • “I’m going to be soooo mad if Mine That Bird wins the Belmont, because that will mean Rachel robbed us of a Triple Crown!”

Huh??? I almost have to throw up in my mouth a bit when I hear this.  Almost.  Do people even think before they speak?  She “robbed” you of a Triple Crown?  For starters, let’s not forget that the Belmont hasn’t been run yet, so hold your horses (no pun intended) on anointing Mine That Bird even a theoretical Triple Crown winner.   Da’ Tara, Birdstone, and Rags to Riches come to mind in recent memory as clear cut examples of why you never assume a Belmont’s outcome before it’s official. More importantly though, did Rachel Alexandra somehow cheat in the Preakness?  Did I miss something?  I’m just trying to understand how she “robbed” anyone of anything?  If she “robbed” anyone, it was other network programs, as television ratings for the Preakness were through the freakin’ roof.  You’d think people would be smart enough to see a star who is exactly what we need when they see one, but apparently not. 

Didn’t Mine That Bird have a fair shot to beat her in the Preakness?   Didn’t Rachel have to break from the extreme outside, set fairly fast splits being contested all the way, and then hang on in the stretch to win?  That’s not robbing, that’s earning, and last time I checked, a horse needs to EARN a Triple Crown.  That’s what makes it special.  Otherwise we might as well just poll the public for who they’d like to see win and simply declare that horse the winner without ever racing.   I can see Dennis Green now, banging on a table and telling reporters to “crown their asses, then!” when asked questions concerning the Chicago Bears.  Same goes here.  You want a Triple Crown so bad that you’re angry when a horse legitimately defeats a hopeful?  Then crown their asses before the race and don’t even bother running.

 

Also, if I may sidestep for just a gosh darn moment…..where the hell were these people in ’07 when Rags to Riches came out of nowhere to “rob” Curlin???  That was MUCH closer to grand larceny than anything Rachel’s done.  

When pressed, most of these people reference the fact that we “haven’t had a Triple Crown winner in 30 years” and that they’d “like to live to see one.”  Oh really?   Wow…didn’t realize they were so into history.  Forgive me, then.   It’s just that, well, you know…there are still plenty of folks alive who remember watching and wagering on the last Triple Crown winner.  On the other hand, how many folks have you run into out there that remember Nellie Morse in the 1924 Preakness?  Yeah…didn’t think so.   If you’re going to reference history, then at least acknowledge that 85 years is a hell of a lot longer than 3 decades to wait to see something happen.   Then again, we do live in the age of “instant gratification”, more’s the pity.

Look, I’ve got nothing but respect for Mine That Bird now either.  He’s a magnificent colt that we ought to see for years to come, considering he’s a gelding.   It’s just that I refuse to see him as some victim of a heinous crime.  I remember the cat calls from all the Curlin haters back in ’07.  “Curlin got beat by a girl!”  Yeah, well, so did Mine That Bird, and the girl that beat him wasn’t as fresh as the girl that beat Curlin (nor was Mine That Bird as worn down as Curlin was).  Personally I don’t consider the “beat by a girl” thing to be anything but the most childish of equine put-downs, as it never seems to apply to the horses that were truly beaten by open lengths (i.e., did you ever hear anyone say “Tiago got beat by a girl!” or “Hard Spun got beat by a girl!” ?  Nope, it was always directed at Curlin…hell, at least he was competitive against a girl.  How far back were Hard Spun and Tiago in the ’07 Belmont by comparison?). 

The last  line of thinking that really grinds my gears goes like this:

  • “Rachel was exhausted in the Preakness, there’s no way she could get the mile and 1/2 of the Belmont.”

When I hear things like this, I wish I was instantly teleported to a face to face handicapping tournament, winner take all, as obviously these folks think that every race is totally equal and not unique at all. 

“Oh lord, won’t you buy me, a tour-na-ment ticket, my friends don’t know horses, I must make amends…”

Yes, Rachel was struggling a bit at the end of the Preakness.  How that is supposed to directly translate into defeat or an inability to get the distance of the Belmont is beyond me.  Are the two races supposed to be apples to apples?  Have folks even considered that the entire pace setup could not only be completely different between the two races, but also explains rather clearly why Rachel was a bit tired at the end of the Preakness?

Consider the following stats.  Here are the opening  1/4 mile and 1/2 mile splits between the ’08 Belmont and the “09 Preakness.  Something should jump off the page at you regarding the half mile times in particular, even if you’ve never so much as thought about pace handicapping:

2008 Belmont:

  • opening 1/4 – :23.82
  • opening 1/2 – :48.30

2009 Preakness:

  • opening 1/4 mile – :23.00
  • opening 1/2 mile – :46.25

See that?  Two full seconds faster in the opening half mile of the 2009 Preakness!   And why was that exactly?   Well, several reasons.  In the 2008 Belmont, Da’ Tara got an easy lead.  Even on the race replay you can hear the call that the opening half mile was set in a “sensible” time of :48.30.   That’s what happens when you have a longer race, and a loose horse on the lead.  The pace of longer races tends to be slower than that of shorter races, hence why horses who show speed routing can’t always be trusted to do the same when sprinting, whereas horses that show speed sprinting often will show similar (if not improved) speed routing. 

In the ’09 Preakness, Rachel had to earn it every step of the way.   She broke from the 13 hole, and had no choice but to gun for the lead or risk being hung wide on the turns.  Anyone familiar with playing the Maryland tracks knows full well how vitally important positioning on the turns, and in particular the first turn, can be.   Of course, Big Drama happened to be along the rail, and likewise was in a situation where he had to go for it right out of the gate.  The result was a speed duel.  Typically, if you see two horses eyeball to eyeball with each other through hotly contested opening fractions, you can expect them to start coming back to the rest of the field in the stretch, thus opening up for an off-the-pace runner.  It’s a testament to Rachel Alexandra’s class that this did not happen, and that the only runners able to make any headway against her were Mine That Bird, and to a lesser extent Musket Man.   That’s what made her win so impressive.   It shouldn’t have happened.  Most horses would not have pulled it off.  In fact, her opening splits were closer to those set by Xchanger and Flying First Class in the ’07 Preakness (1/4 in :22.83,  1/2 in :45.75), and obviously neither of them wound up in the Superfecta. 

So yes, she was struggling towards the end, but what exactly was she supposed to look like?  Even Chip Woolley, trainer of Mine That Bird, admitted that his colt was fresher by virtue of only really having to run the last 3/8 of a mile of both the Derby and the Preakness.  I’m sorry that she didn’t look as majestic as Big Brown in the ’08 Preakness, but she had a bit of a saltier field and a tougher trip to overcome.   Eyes can be deceiving though.  Again, apples to apples this most certainly is not.  

Each race is unique, and one must resist the urge of  looking at the ’09 Preakness replay and simpliifying by saying “yup, in another furlong Mine That Bird would’ve caught her.”   Would he?  Perhaps, but then again the entire race would’ve been different.  The only thing you can be assured of is that if THAT EXACT running of the Preakness happened again, but went a furlong further, that perhaps Mine That Bird would have caught her.  That’s it.  That’s the only certain conclusion one can make.  The rest is pure speculation or opinion….not that their’s anything wrong with either, necessarily, it’s just that when they are repeated as fact folks can get the wrong ideas.   I’m just saying keep that in mind when you hear folks spouting off (and yes, that includes me and indeed this rant right here).

Similarly, we must resist the urge of DEMANDING a rematch between either Rachel and The Bird in the Belmont, or Rachel and Zenyatta at some later date.   Would those races be exciting? Most definitely!  But we can’t reduce ourselves to the plebians in the Colliseum, demanding that Caesar show us another round of gladitorial combat.  Let the horsemen do what’s right for the horses, and let’s hope that we’re lucky enough to see them in their prime again before they are gone. 

In conclusion, here’s hoping Rachel enjoys her much deserved time off.  Rest up, baby girl.  There are big plans for you both this summer and beyond.  Personally, I’m hoping Jess sends her to Saratoga.  I can think of no other track more befitting of an appearance by the queen herself.   Now, if we could just get Zenyatta’s people to come face her….  :-)


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Mine That Bird, Pimlico, Preakness, Rachel Alexandra, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Rachel Alexandra Runs Away with the 2009 Preakness

16 05 2009
 

She did it!!!!!!!  She stared straight into the eyes of over 80 years of history (not to mention 12 colts) and REFUSED to be denied!  Right from the start she had to prove she was everything she had been billed as, being forced to move quickly from the outside post and winding up in a speed duel with inside runner Big Drama, setting opening splits of  :23.13 and :46.71.  NOTHING could stop her though as she powered to a  4 length lead in the stretch and held off late charges from Musket Man and Mine That Bird to prevail in 1:55.08.  A lesser horse would have collapsed under the pressure.  Hell, many a fine horse would have collapsed under the pressure, but not Rachel.  It was a win for the ages, and one that has the potential to put horse racing back on the map in terms of national recognition, even if only for a fleeting moment. 

Full Results Chart

The past 3 years I’ve been blessed to witness firsthand the finest thoroughbred racing action a fan could  hope for in the yearly running of the Preakness.  In 2007 I came to cheer my guts out for my hero, Curlin, and was thrilled beyond belief when he caught Kentucky Derby champion Street Sense at the wire.  In 2008 we came to see Big Brown ”big boy”a field of pretenders and keep the elusive Triple Crown dream alive.  Today was as big a day as I’ve ever been a part of, as the amazing filly Rachel Alexandra gave us one for the ages.  No matter where we go from here, we can always say “I remember watching when Rachel Alexandra made history!”  I’m on record as saying that in my opinion, the Preakness is the true test of a 3-year-old champion, as the field size and distance make it a more evenly matched race compared to the chaos of the Kentucky Derby and the exhausting (and often somewhat unpredictable) challenge of the Belmont.  

Just like with Curlin in 2007, the minute the field turned for home I began jumping up and down, screaming at the top of my lungs.  “Stay up there Rachel!!!! Dig in, girl, dig in!!!!  Show ‘em what you’re made of, baby girl!!!!  Yes!!!! YESSSS!!!!!  YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!”   “IT’S A FILLY IN THE PREAKNESS!!!!!!!”  

This was immediately followed by the same overwhelming and unavoidable tears of joy and pride that permeated my experience with her soon-to-be boyfriend’s Preakness victory.  Yes, I wept a little bit, and I’m not ashamed to admit it.  Watching magnificent horses that I’ve fallen in love with prevail in their defining moments has that effect on me.  I suppose it’s a bit like a proud parent, watching their child achieve scholastic honor, or athletic glory on the football field.

I know one word can’t summarize what we witnessed, but all I’m left thinking is “WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!” (or perhaps more in accordance with the “parlance of our times”, I should revise that to a resounding “DAAAAAAAYUMMMM!!!!!” )  :)

Whoever said a filly couldn’t beat the boys, huh?  Of course, Rachel isn’t your ordinary filly, but to overcome that outside post,  look Big Drama in the eye (who was coming off 5 consecutive victories, mind you, and was the most talked about “buzz horse” all week at Pimlico) and deny him, and then power to an insurmountable lead in the stretch while holding off the Kentucky Derby winner?  It’s absolutely breathtaking.  If it can be said that Big Brown “big boy’d” the field of the ’08 Preakness, than Rachel Alexandra “big girl’d” the field of Preakness 134. 

THIS is the reason we are horse racing fans.  THIS is the reason our sport is the best in the world.  THIS is the reason we lay awake at night dreaming about what is, what might be, and what could have been.

What an unbelievable filly.   Where she goes from here is anyone’s guess.  Might she head to the Belmont?  Personally I’d actually prefer they give her a rest.   I think she’s earned it now with her dominating wins in the Kentucky Oaks and the Preakness.  No need to push things.  That being said, if Jess Jackson and trainer Steve Asmussen (who I’m told was wearing the exact same suit that he did for Curlin’s 2007 Preakness victory)  decide to send her, you’ll hear no argument from me.  They made all the right moves with Curlin, and they’ve clearly done so with Rachel Alexandra thus far.  And to think, none of this would have transpired had Jackson not stepped up to the plate and purchased her just two weeks ago. 

I guess it’s no secret now that she has proven herself exactly who we thought she is, I’m hoping to see her come home safe and sound once her racing career is over so that she can breed a new line  of magnificent offspring with Curlin.   Can you believe it?  We’re going to have foals several years from now that have Preakness winners for both a mother and a father!  My knowledge of pre-World War 2 horse racing is extremely limited, but I’m guessing that’s never happened before. 

This, my friends, is a total game changer for the entire sport! 

I also have to tip my hat to the “little colt who could”, 2nd place finisher Mine That Bird.   Talk about a horse who has EARNED respect these last two weeks.  His effort in the Preakness proves that there is no such thing as a Kentucky Derby “fluke”, no matter how much we might want to suggest there is.  Clearly he is a magnificent race horse in his own right, and I’ll tell you what, the way he came charging late  he should be feared and respected in the Belmont.

I also thought Musket Man proved he’s the same gutsy competitor we thought he was.  Remember back to our Alibi Breakfast coverage on Thursday where owner Vic Carlson indicated he was betting Musket Man to show?  Looks like that turned out just like he said it would. 

I’m no longer so sure exactly what we have with Pioneer of the Nile,  Papa Clem, and Friesan Fire, as none of them wound up finishing in the money.

All in all this was a magnificent weekend for the sport, and for Maryland racing, which always holds a special place in my heart.  Just when both needed a savior (horse racing in general from a slew of disappointments/tragedies in recent years on the national stage, and Maryland racing in light of the recent bankruptcy filings of  Magna Entertainment, which owns both Pimlico and Laurel Park), a wonder horse has appeared like a knight in shining armor. 

I wish I could find the entire clip on youtube to share with you all, but in reference to that last sentence, I’m humored by a random quote that came to mind as Amy and I drove to the Preakness early this morning.   For some reason the World War 2 classic “A Bridge Too Far” popped into my mind, and I began quoting some random lines.  I made reference to the scene in the film where General Horrocks suggests that the plan for Operation Market Garden reminds him of an American old west film.  “The paratroops, lacking supplies, are the besieged homesteaders.  The Germans, well, naturally they are the bad guys.  And XXX Corps….we are the CAVALRY!”  This was immediately followed by a very bad Michael Caine impersonation, where I suggested that XXX Corps should arrive “right on shed-yule” (that’s “schedule” for us Yanks, but the way Caine speaks the line in full English accent comes off sounding like “shed-yule”….it’s quite addictive to impersonate as it just rolls off the tongue, but I digress). 

“Right on shed-yule” indeed, and just when we needed it the most.  Thank you Rachel, and the little horse who could (Mine That Bird).  The two of you have both been the cavalry we so desperately needed, and your chivalric charges through the Kentucky Derby and Preakness stretches are memories that we’ll keep with us for eternity. 

Of course, I can’t talk about amazing women like Rachel without tipping my hat to two other special gals who helped make the weekend what it was.  Most importantly I’m talking about  my beloved wife, Amy, who puts up with my rambling rants about horse racing and accompanies me as my right hand wherever the game takes me.  True to form, in the midst of our dreadful opening to the day handicapping wise, she pulled an exacta play out of nowhere by boxing numbers that equated to our children’s birthdays. 

At one point in between the Pick 4 sequences, I was so bummed out about our picks that I considered not even betting anymore for the day.  It’s part of our my complex mental makeup that I both love handicapping, but hate losing money on burnt tickets.  Remember that “right on shed-yule” theme from a few paragraphs above?  It played out again during the extended downtime between races 8 and 9 on the card. 

Just as we were agonizing over how to proceed with the late Pick 4, some familiar music began to pipe through the tents of the Turfside Terrace.  ZZ Top had taken the stage to perform, and were jamming out  to “give me all your loving, all your hugs and kisses too.”  It was at that point that we knew the rest of the day would be ours.  You see, back in 2002 when we were married, our ceremony was outdoors.  Just as we began exchanging vows, a vehicle pulled up within earshot blaring that very song.  Amy and I had remained oblivious to this turn of events as we went through the exchange (nerves having evidently temporarily disabled our ability to hear anything but each other), but it’s something our guests have never forgotten.  Nor have they ever let us forget.  :)

With that in mind, the moment that familiar sound reached our ears, we looked at each other and agreed “we came here to play, this is OUR day.  No regrets!”  And with that, we launched into a series of winning plays that got us back to near even for the day.  You know the saying….behind every decent man there’s an even better woman.  Well, I’m not sure if I qualify as a ”decent guy”, but I know damn well how special my girl is. 

 

Amy and I at the 2009 Preakness, where Rachel Alexandra would make history as the first filly since Nellie Morse in 1924 to win horse racing's 2nd jewel of the Triple Crown

Amy and I at the 2009 Preakness, where Rachel Alexandra would make history as the first filly since Nellie Morse in 1924 to win horse racing's 2nd jewel of the Triple Crown

There’s one other special lady I have to give a big shout out to again, and that’s Carrie Everly of the Maryland Jockey Club.  I know I mentioned her before in our Black Eyed Susan write-up, but she’s the type of person you simply can’t say enough about.  If only there was some way to clone her so that each track in the nation could have a VP of Marketing  like her.  After Rachel’s victory, I ran into her near the winner’s circle, and shared a big “bear hug” while I confided to her that watching Rachel win had moved me to tears of joy and pride.  I probably didn’t even need to say that, as Carrie is just one of those people who “gets it”, whatever “it” might be.   One can always count on the warm smile, the friendly demeanor, and the infectous charm she exudes wherever you see her, whether that be outside the paddock between races or multitasking with walki-talki in hand as a crowd begins to arrive.  No matter how busy she is, she always has time for us, the little guys.  After all, who are we but small time horse players and fans?  And yet she treats us like absolute royalty.  I just hope that somehow, or in some way I’ll one day be able to repay that kindness and properly express my gratitude. 

On a day when an amazing filly shined on the track, the Maryland Jockey Club had their own super-gal working behind the scenes to make sure it all came together as beautifully as it did.  

Yours truly and the amazing Carrie Everly, VP of Marketing for the Maryland Jockey Club

Yours truly and the amazing Carrie Everly, VP of Marketing for the Maryland Jockey Club

And of course, it would only be proper to conclude by saying that everything went off  “right on shed-yule”

Now if only I had a picture of me with my arm around Rachel Alexandra, right?   I guess a guy can only be so lucky in one day.  I’ve got no complaints from where I’m standing.  :)

I’ll be taking the next few days off here.  It’s been quite a run covering the Alibi Breakfast, Black Eyed Susan Day, and Preakness Day.  I hope you all enjoyed.  Up next we’ll start to swing our attention towards the 2009 Belmont.


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Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Pimlico, Preakness, Rachel Alexandra, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Preakness Day Selections

15 05 2009

It’s hard to believe that the second jewel of the Triple Crown is already upon us.  From a week that began with the Alibi Breakfast festivities, we’re now through the Black Eyed Susan, and all attention turns to the Preakness. After bringing home two chalk heavy Pick 4 plays at Pimlico Race Course on Friday, I’m jumping right back into the fray with an exhaustive look at the major races that comprise the Preakness Day card on Saturday.   A marathon of 13 races presents itself, culminating in the 134th running of the Preakness Stakes.  It’s a day that could be filled with history, as Rachel Alexandra looks to defy the odds and become the first filly to win the Preakness since Nellie Morse way back in 1924. 

Two years ago in 2007, my life changed when I watched a brilliant colt named Curlin take center stage and announce to the world that a new star was born.  Might a similarly life changing event be waiting for us just hours away?  Only time will tell.

Much like the Black Eyed Susan picks, I’ll skip the opening races on the day and instead focus on the two Pick 4 sequences.  This is in the interest of time since it’s already 9 PM here in Pennsylvania as I begin writing this.  With any luck we’ll do as good as we did Friday on Black Eyed Susan Day, only hopefully this time we’ll catch some better prices along the way. :)

Race 5:  Alw 26000 N1X (12:26 ET)

  • #2 Schleprock (4/1)
  • #7 Habitual (5/2*)
  • #11 Chancellery (9/2)

We kick things off in the early Pick 4 with a full field of 12 runners routing 1 1/16 miles over the Pimlico turf.   There’s not a lot of speed in this race, but turf races tend to come down to “cavalry charges” at the end, where the horse picking ‘em up and putting ‘em down the best in the final few jumps finds it’s way to the winner’s circle.  For that reason, I went with #2 Schleprock as the top choice.  He’s got 2 recent victories routing over the grass and is technically dropping slightly in class going from the $37k  N1X ranks down to the $26k N1X level.   With Edgar Prado in the saddle for trainer Michael Pino, this guy looks the one to beat.  #7 Habitual is actually listed at lower odds (5/2) on the morning line than Schleprock.  You have to look back a couple of races to see why, but this son of former Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos has proven to be a capable turf runner.  On his best stuff he can certainly get the job done.  #11 Chancellery will have to get things done from the outside, but he’s been improving and has run a couple of decent races in his career over the Pimlico lawn.   Another horse that warrants some attention in here is #4 Been Awhile, who took 7 chances to break his maiden, but then promptly defeated N2L claimers at first asking.  Perhaps the light bulb has switched on?

$1 Early Pick 4: 

2,7,11/ 3,9,10,11/ 8/ 3,6,7  = $36

 

Race 6: The Deputed Testamony (1:07 ET)

  • #11 Sumacha’hot (2/1)
  • #9 Belle’s Broker (6/1)
  • #3 Norjac (5/2)

Things get a bit deeper when we wade into Stakes territory with the 2nd running of The Deputed Testamony (which for some reason I always want to type as “the Disputed Testimony“), a 1 1/16 mile race over the Pimlico main track.  #11 Sumacha’hot would be a much stronger play if he hadn’t drawn such an outside post position.  As such, and despite his very usable dirt form in recent history, you’ve got to include other runners on the Pick 4 ticket here.  #9 Belle’s Broker has the look of a horse who may get overlooked on the tote board.  He definitely knows how to find the winner’s circle, and he’s run pretty well at both this distance and on the local track.  He was favored last out before being checked, which may have cost him the race.  A bounce back effort puts him right in contention today.  #3 Norjac must answer questions regarding his ability to stretch out and get the distance of the Deputed Testamony, but if is able to handle the chore, than he’s clearly a player as well.  Two other horses I think warrant consideration in here are #10 Furrariat, who might be ready for a breakout performance, and the speedy inside runner, #1  Out to Please.  Ultimately I didn’t think the inside speed runner “classed up” on paper enough to include in the Pick 4, but I wouldn’t count him out of the single race exotics.  Of course, I could also make a bit of a case for #3 Take Down Two getting Garrett Gomez in the saddle, so this might be a good race to spread fairly deep.  #7 Court Bland will be charging late, and has a decent chance to hit the bottom of the Trifecta and Superfecta.

 

Race 7:  The Grade 3 Gallorette (1:55 ET)

  • #8 Dynaforce (4/5*)
  • #2 All Is Vanity (9/2)
  • #3 Shytoe Lafeet (10/1)

We move into graded stakes territory with the 58th running of the Grade 3 Gallorette, going 1 1/16 miles over the turf.  #8 Dynaforce is the main attraction of this event, coming off a disappointing 8th (though only beaten by 4 lengths) in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf last October at Santa Anita to the super talented Forever Together.  This looks like a good spot for her to make his 2009 debut, as she’s the only runner of the field that can boast at having cracked the 100 Beyer Speed Figure threshold.  That being said, she’ll still need to bring his top stuff to prevail.  As a previous Grade 1 winner, she’s clearly the class of the field.  What handicappers must determine is if they are willing to trust that class off the long layoff and bravely single, or if they think a couple of other runners might have a chance to pull off the upset.  Obviously, based on my Pick 4 play a few races above, I’m going to be brave and trust that class edge, but you won’t hear me argue with those who feel otherwise….and their just might be some juicy value to be had for those who do attempt to beat the chalk.  #2 All is Vanity looks like the filly with the best chance to “class up” against Dynaforce in here.  She used a wide post position to put in a game run against Raw Silk in the South Beach back in April, and could move forward off that effort.  #3 Shytoe Lafeet is my longshot bomb chance for this race.  For one thing, I’m always fond of the Larry Jones/Gabriel Saez combo, especially with fillies and mares.  What’s more, this is a runner who has had excuses in each of the past two races.  I’m guessing that with a name like Shytoe Lafeet, all of the foot fetish folks out there in the world will be all over this runner.  If you toss those efforts, she’s got a little something under the hood and looks like a player in here to me.  Another horse I’d strongly consider using in the single race exotics is #5 Quiet Meadow.

 

Race 8:  The Grade 3 Hirsch Jacobs (2:35 ET)

  • #6 Despite the Odds (9/2)
  • #3 Not for Silver (8/1)
  • #7 Nuclear Wayne (4/1)

I actually had a chance to cover the 34th running of The Hirsch Jacobs over at Case The Race earlier this weekend.  I’m still sticking with my picks there.  I think this race has all kinds of speed, and the two horses that leap off the page to me are those from the white hot Michael Trombetta barn.  #6 Despite the Odds looks to be the better of the two, and is an improving son of champion sprinter Speightstown.  #3 Not for Silver is no slouch himself, and really I could see either of these guys passing the pace setters in the lane to score.  Another runner who could offer some value, despite being  only 4/1 on the morning line is #7 Nuclear Wayne, a fast improving son of Mineshaft.  Of the speed types, #1 Taqarub makes the most sense to me, but like I said, I’ll be playing against the speed here.

 

Race 9: The Woodlawn (3:44 ET)

  • #8 Affirmatif (3/5*)
  • #4 Beacon Hill Road (6/1)
  • #5 Colonel Rutledge (10/1)

The Late Pick 4 sequence begins with the 44th running of The Woodlawn.  We’ve got a field of ten three-year-olds going 1 mile over the turf .  #8 Affirmatif is the most intriguing of the field, despite this being only his 3rd career start.  The son of Unbridled’s Song is listed at extremely low odds of 3/5 on the morning line, but appears a worthy favorite on paper.  He’ll likely press the pace early on and then make his move before the field enters the final turn.  If he’s as good as he looks on paper, the race could be over right there.  #4 Beacon Hill Road was a mediocre looking runner until switched to the Jason Servis barn, where he’s promptly run his best career efforts in back to back stakes races.  A similar effort could put him right where he needs to be should Affirmatif fail to fire.  My longshot pick for the race is #5 Colonel Rutledge.  Not only do I love a good martial sounding name in a colt, but this one goes out for one of my favorite trainers, Graham Motion.  It’s hard to figure out based on his limited past performance profile if he’s a better dirt runner or turf runner.  He owns a win over the grass, but his better speed figures have been over the dirt.  I’m guessing that he’s an improved horse since that first turf effort.  That should show up on Saturday.  Another horse you’ve got to consider using is #1 Heros Image, who might be force to go quickly early on by virtue of breaking from the rail. 

$1 Late Pick 4: 

4,8/ 5,7,8/ 1,3,4/ 7,9,13 = $54

 

Race 10:  The Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap (4:30 ET)

  • #8 Ravalo (3/1)
  • #5 Ah Day (5/2*)
  • #7 Celtic Innis (10/1)

Speed is the name of the game in the 23rd running of the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap, and #8 Ravalo has it.  True, his last two efforts at Aqueduct and Keeneland have left quite a bit to be desired, but this gelding has won an impressive 8 of 16 races at today’s 6 furlong distance.  I don’t think that can be ignored.  He’s breaking from the outside ,but should be able to get the lead and then shift over to save ground.  Speed tends to hold quite well at Pimlico, so he should be a force if he does indeed get loose up front.  #5 Ah Day shocked me by being 5/2 on the morning line.  I would have thought his recent darkened form trying to stretch out further might have increased his value.  Now we’ll be at the mercy of horseplayers to determine what price he actually goes to post as.  He should relish the distance change, and with Garrett Gomez in the saddle, this son of Malibu Moon could be quite a force for trainer King Leatherbury.  #7 Celtic Innis is another runner who seems to thrive at the 6 furlong idstance, and has done especially well at Pimlico over his career.  He’s been on the shelf since January, but at 7-years-old  it could be that he just needed to get his legs back underneath him.   Another runner that did not make my final selections that gives me some pause is #5 Torpedo Run, who exits 3 consecutive victories.  He’ll probably be the guy I’m sweating out the most if I do indeed leave him off the late Pick 4.

 

Race 11: The Grade 2 Dixie (5:13 PM)

  • #4 Kiss the Kid (5/1)
  • #1 Proudinsky (5/2*)
  • #3 Parading (9/2)

Ah, the Dixie…such memories.  It was in this race last year that my Pick 6 dreams came to a crashing halt when longshot Pays to Dream upset the late Shakis and others, and my despair was forever captured on film (that’s me in the yellow hat in that picture right next to the finish line).  Time for some redemption, and what do you know, the gods of horse racing have seen fit to provide me with a Lemon Drop to get the job done!  You know I love me some Lemon Drops!  #4 Kiss the Kid exits two strong Beyer performances, in cluding a win in the Grade 3 Appleton in March.  The victory was his third in 4 starts, having only been defeated by Kip Deville in that sequence.  Kip Deville is one of the finest turf runners in North America, and while this field is deep, it doesn’t have any true monsters like him.  #1 Proudinksy is a guy I never leave ff my tickets.  He ran on Derby day against Einstein, Cowboy Cal, and Court Vision in the Grade 1 Turf Classic, and comes right back two weeks later for trainer Bobby Frankel.  He’s always a threat on his top stuff, and the 1 1/8 mile distance of the Dixie seems to be his strong suit.  #3 Parading is likely the pace setter of the race, and could be handful if he’s allowed to gets too easy a lead.  There are others in here with designs on pressing that pace a bit, but his newfound early speed style should suit him very well.  #2 Monba and #8 Strike a Deal are also runners worth considering here.   Hopefully I won’t make it two years in a row being knocked out in the Dixie. 

 

Race 12: The Grade 1 Preakness (6:15 ET)

  • #13 Rachel Alexandra (8/5*)
  • #9 Pioneer of the Nile (5/1)
  • #7 Papa Clem(12/1)

So it all comes down to this.  The 134th running of  The Preakness.  Over 80 years of history are on the line!  Can Rachel Alexandra repeat the brilliance she demonstrated in the Kentucky Oaks two weeks ago?  Clearly the stakes have risen, and she finds herself in the deepest field she’s yet seen.  She’s drawn the outside, and will likely have to gun it from the start in order to save ground going into the first turn.  #1 Big Drama to the extreme inside also figures to be on the gas early on, creating a situation that might be ripe for the next flight of colts coming home.  That should include the group that finished 2, 3, 4 in the Kentucky Derby;  #9 Pioneer of the Nile, #7 Papa Clem, and #3 Musket Man.   Much has been made of Pioneer of the Nile either being of questionable quality or potentially “sitting on a big one.”  I tend to believe the latter of the two.  If not for that brilliant move by Calvin Borel to find the rail with Mine That Bird, Pioneer might have been Derby champion.  He should get a firmer surface to run over, and he looms the biggest threat to Queen Rachel’s attempt to achieve eternal glory.  The horse that I think is being most overlooked here is #7 Papa Clem.  What exactly did this guy do to deserve being ranked so low at 12/1?  Was he not less than a length behind Pioneer of the Nile?  He’ll be my longshot play, for sure.  I’m not really sure what to make of #5 Friesan Fire.   I probably gave him the “kiss of death” by making him my last minute Kentucky Derby selection just hours before the run for the roses (after the late scratch of I Want Revenge), and having met Larry Jones at the Alibi Breakfast, I can’t stomach being responsible for another miserable performance, so he shall be the official “horse I shall not speak of” for this race.   Truth be told, I think he’s a sneaky threat if he has indeed healed….I’m just not going to name him in my picks.  #3 Musket Man is a horse that has really earned my respect over the Triple Crown campaign, and I could see him getting back up into the money again on Saturday.   As for the longer shots on the board, call me crazy but Take the Points at 30/1 looks very intriguing.   What to make of Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird?  Well, you’ll never hear me disrsepect that horse again.  I’ve learned my lesson.  It’s just that without jockey Calvin Borel, and without the cool, damp climate that he seemed to thrive in so perfectly two weeks ago, I’m going to play againts him.  Besides,  all of that glorious value that made him famous in the Derby will now be gone thanks to being a household name.   I’ll be there to cheer for Rachel Alexandra, but I think she might be up against it, which is why I’m ultimately going to cover Pioneer and Papa Clem as well on the Pick 4.  

Preakness Selections:

  • $20 Win #7 Papa Clem
  • $1 Trifecta:  13/5,7,9/1,2,3,5,7,9,11 = $18

 

Best of luck to everyone.  I’ll likely be “tweeting” along with the action from the Turfside Terrace.  If you caught the action today on Black Eyed Susan Day, I was giving out paddock picks and other useful tips.  Needless to say my access to the paddock is non existant when I’m across the track in the Turfside Terrace, but I’ll be in prime position to watch the Preakness runners saddle.   You can follow along if you like from the link below:

http://twitter.com/kdawg68

Riders up!  :)


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Categories : Friesan Fire, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Papa Clem, Pimlico, Pioneer of the Nile, Preakness, Rachel Alexandra, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Mine That Bird shocks the world!

2 05 2009

Jockey Calvin Borel (Bo-RAIL) has done it again, exploding up the rail in the 135th  Kentucky Derby to shock the world by winning the nation’s biggest race at odds of 50/1.  The win completes a perfect sweep of the both the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby, and both in amazing style.  Mine That Bird was 50/1 on the tote board going to post, and goes down as the second longest priced horse to win the Kentucky Derby in it’s storied history.

50/1!!!!!!  Are you kidding me?  In the Derby?  Wow, guess we just missed “the next Giacomo.”  Watching Calvin celebrate afterwards all one can wonder is how one man can dominate one lane at one track so thoroughly as Calvin Borel does at Churchill Downs along the rail?  It is absolutely astonishing.  Twice now in the last 3 years he’s made the same move and won the Derby.   

On Friday we had visions of Secretariat in the ’73 Belmont as Rachel Alexandra throttled the Oaks field by over 20 lengths. On Saturday we were treated to visions of Street Sense in the ’07 Derby, as Calvin  Borel  did what he always does.  He found the rail, made his move, and then continued to to extend throughout the stretch.  Mind That Bird opened up a final margin of 6  3/4 lengths and completed the 1 1/4 mile distance of the Derby in 2:02.66.

How on earth did this happen?   A son of  Birdstone, Mine That Bird had never broken the 90 Beyer Speed Figure level.  In fact, he had barely broken the 80′s.  Talk about a stunning improvement. Exiting back to back less-than-inspiring performances in ungraded stakes at Sunland Park, for goodness sakes, he was less than an afterthought.   I ‘ll be honest.  I had him ranked as the third from lowest contender in this field.  That’s right - 3rd from last.   Never saw that coming in a million years. The only runners I had behind him were Atomic Rain (who finished 16th), and Flying Private (who finished last).  Of course, the horse I did have finished 18th (Friesan Fire).  Sigh.

Yet Mine That Bird, somehow, was clearly the best.  Once you could see him making his move along the rail, all you could think of was “wait, who the heck is that along the rail?”  As if we even needed to ask.  It could only be one man, and just like he did aboard Street Sense in 2007, he did again in 2009.  

In the “race behind the race”, an interesting battle was happening that many racing fans may have missed.  Pioneer of the Nile, Musket Man, and Papa Clem battled it out and ultimately rounded out the superfecta, respectively.  Chocolate Candy and Summer Bird were another 6 lengths back from the top four. 

The final results with beaten lengths was as follows:

  • #8 Mine That Bird  —
  • #16 Pioneer of the Nile – 6  3/4
  • #2 Musket Man – 6 3/4
  • #7 Papa Clem – 7
  • #11 Chocolate Candy – 13
  • #17 Summer Bird – 13 1/4
  •  #9 Join in the Dance – 14 1/2
  • #10 Regal Ransom – 15
  • #1 West Side Bernie – 15 3/4
  • #12 General Quarters – 17 3/4
  • #15 Dunkirk – 19 1/4
  • #5 Hold Me Back – 20 3/4
  • #4 Advice – 21 1/4
  • #19 Desert Party – 22
  • #3 Mr. Hot Stuff – 22 1/4
  • #18 Nowhere to Hide – 35 1/4
  • #6 Friesan Fire – 42 3/4
  • #20 Flying Private – 44

Obviously the most disappointing of these was post time favorite Friesan Fire, who was beaten by over 40 lengths.  Most likely this is because I selected him once I Want Revenge was scratched.  My apologies to the Larry Jones camp.  Now I just hope he checks out okay without an injury.  Finishing 40 lengths back at his talent level is more than worrisome.

All of this makes the Preakness, just 2 weeks away, a more intriguing race. 

  • How many runners will be scared away from Mine That Bird?  
  • Was it the sloppy track? 
  • Was it some other factor that makes him vulnerable two weeks from now (and beyond)? 

I’m thinking many will be expecting a significant bounce off of that performance.  The Preakness, due to it’s reduced field size of 12, tends to be a better barometer in terms of absolute talent. 

Speaking of which…we  went into the week thinking we had a fairly good handle on who the best 3-year-olds in the country were.  We leave with Rachel Alexandra and Mine That Bird  seemingly on a level of their own.  Hats off to the connections of each.  

Is there any chance we might see them in the Preakness two weeks from now at Pimlico?   We can only dream.  What a matchup that would be.


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Categories : Churchill Downs, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Mine That Bird, Papa Clem, Pioneer of the Nile, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage


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