I’ve been silent since the weekend, left to ponder in solitude what might have been and what will never be. Odysseus, the horseI’ve touted as a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender since mid-February floundered in the Toyota Blue Grass last weekend at Keeneland, sustaining an injury in the process and effectively ending the Derby dream.
Unsure of how to approach the topic, I’ve returned to my roots. It was, after all, a couple of Youtube videos from the 2007 Triple Crown season that launched this adventure here at The Aspiring Horseplayer.
In an attempt to convey (albeit in slightly humorous fashion) my thoughts and misgivings on the matter, I’m presenting the following video that plays on my favorite Youtube meme other than the infamous Keyboard Cat.
Behold:
Hitler is angry that Odysseus is off the Derby trail.
Evidently it takes a while for news to reach underground bunkers in Berlin where the fury of the der Fuhrer is awaiting his final destruction at the hands of the Red Army.
Less than a month remains until the 2010 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, but already we’ve reached the point where the final major prep races are being run. It seems like only yesterday we were first catching glimpses of the 3-year-old crop, and now they’ve grown up before our eyes.
Yes, friends, theTake Back Saturday cause is alive and well and now we must keep the mojo going to help tell the continuous story through the prep races into the Derby and beyond.
Obviously that’s not the only thing going on in the racing world this weekend, as undefeated super mare Zenyatta, our one and only Slow Cheetah, returns to racing in the Apple Blossom – even if it’s not quite the race we thought it would be just a few months ago. The daughter of Street Cry will look to keep her undefeated record going on Friday night at Oaklawn.
Speaking of undefeated mares - the news of Personal Ensign’s passingwas received with sadness today. Evidently the undefeated super-filly perished of “natural causes” on Thursday. While her entire career was remarkable, the singular moment that will stand out for many was her breathtaking victory against Kentucky Derby champion Winning Colors in the 1988 Breeders’ Cup Distaff.
Well, you know what they say (or at least they “should” say): There’s no better way to honor the passing of an undefeated super-mare than by celebrating an undefeated super-mare still in training. Win one for Personal Ensign tonight, Zenyatta.
The Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes – Keeneland – 1 1/8 Miles (5:30 PM)
We kick things off with the Blue Grass, which is run over the synthetic Tapeta surface at Keeneland. For this reason many scoff at the Blue Grass as an unworthy Grade 1 prep race for the Kentucky Derby, which is run over a the dirt surface at Churchill Downs. In fact, in recent memory, only Street Sense has come out of the Blue Grass and gone on to make any serious noise on the first Saturday in May. All that could change with this weekend’s race though, as a contentious field of colts battling for graded stakes earnings make their way to the starting gate.
The field sets up like this:
#1 Odysseus (7/2)
#2 First Dude (8/1)
#3 Stately Victor (30/1)
#4 Make Music For Me (6/1)
#5 Codoy (30/1)
#6 Pleasant Prince (3/1*)
#7 Paddy O’ Prado (10/1)
#8 Aikenite (4/1)
#9 Interactif (4/1)
I guess theres’ no way to avoid just coming out and saying this, since he’s in the 1 hole in the first race I’m covering:
You all knowhow fond I am of ODYSSEUS. He’s been my “Derby horse” since I first laid eyes on him in mid-February, and has been firmly entrenched at the top of our Kentucky Derby rankings since then. Trouble is – I hate his placement in this race. It just doesn’t make a shred of sense to me. In fact, it stinks. If graded earnings are the name of the game, then wouldn’t the Arkansas Derby have made more sense? There’s an extra 1/4 million dollars on the line in that race – not to mention what appears to be less contentious competition.
The whole thing just feels like a bad idea. He should’ve taken the “Curlin path” following in his big red hoofsteps and thundering down the Oaklawn main track. Instead, he’s likely to be in the fight of his life on the Tapeta – in the same race that saw the mighty Street Sense get nosed out by Dominican in 2007.
What makes it even more frustrating is that we all know one wrong decision with a thoroughbred can be catastrophic. I’m reminded here of the poignant words of Sam Elliot’s portrayal of Union General John Buford in the epic film Gettysburg, as he ponders the likelihood that the Federal army will once again blunder into the waiting arms of Lee and suffer a horrific defeat at the hands of the invading rebels.
“An odd set, stony quality to it. As if tomorrow has already happened and there’s nothing you can do about it. The way you feel before an ill-considered attack. Knowing it will fail – but you CANNOT stop it. You must even take part, help it fail!”
Of course, Buford and his command wound up performing admirably – successfully resisting the advance of Heth’s Division and other rebel forces until General John Reynolds and the infantry arrived on the field, so who knows? Perhaps Odysseus will rise up to the challenge and prove he’s the better horse?
Looking at the race though, the entire setup also seems flat out wrong. He’s probably going to have to run hard right out of the gates from inside post position, and he’s likely to be hounded the entire way if PADDY O’PRADO and/or FIRST DUDE decide they’d like to be involved early on. Speed has been playing well at Keeneland, but it remains to be seen how hard he’ll have to work in the early goings.
As my friend Derek Simon noted in his podcast covering the races, even if ODYSSEUS does manage another epic victory, it’s hard to imagine it setting him up well for the Derby. My heart will be with Odysseus, but I see this race most likely coming down to one of the other horses.
The two most likely candidates I come up with are INTERACTIF and PLEASANT PRINCE, who stand a good chance of making their moves from off the pace. Yes, I know that INTERACTIF has been much closer to the pace in recent starts, but breaking from the outside position here, I’d expect him to rate just behind ODYSSEUS and PADDY in the early going, and then look to make his move entering the final turn.
It’s near the final turn where things should get really interesting. PLEASANT PRINCE will likely be rolling late, he just missed against Ice Box and has faced off against the monster that is Eskendereya, but it’s INTERACTIF who could be picking ‘em up and putting ‘em down better than the rest of the field. Will it be enough to prevail? I’m not sure, but if you saw what Sidney’s Candy did to Lookin at Lucky and the Santa Anita Derby field, then keep in mind that this horse was only beaten by a 1/2 length to him in the San Felipe.
Of course, there’s any number of longshots you could go with here as well. It would be no surprise to see MAKE MUSIC FOR ME show up with a good race, as he’s been right behind Lookin at Lucky in previous efforts. With the way bettors are likely to be spread out in this race, you could get better value than the 6/1 on the morning line.
Likewise, FIRST DUDE also deserves some respect here and has to be given a chance to move forward. Obviously something went wrong in that Florida Derby effort, but prior to that he had shown signs of ability.
Then of course there’s the wise guy horse, PADDY O’PRADO. Paddy is worth considering for good reason. All he managed to do was defeat Dean’s Kitten last out, and that horse returned to win the Grade 2 Lane’s End. What’s difficult to figure out is whether he’ll be close to the pace again, or if he’ll revert back to his previous running style of a closer? Either way he’s got a big shot here, although I doubt you get anything close to 10/1 on this horse.
Selections:
I’m going to take ODYSSEUS here in a sentimental sign of solidarity. What can I say – I know he’s up against it and victory seems unlikely, but I’m loyal to a fault, and this is my horse. Believe me, the confidence factor is about as low as it can go regarding his chances, but I’m not going to turn my back on a friend in his hour of need.
I think INTERACTIF, PLEASANT PRINCE, and PADDY O’PRADO all make a great deal of sense here, and if I had to choose one, I’d take INTERACTIF, so he’ll be second choice. PADDY O’PRADO is my third choice, but I would also add MAKE MUSIC FOR ME and AIKENITE into the exotics.
#1 Odysseus (7/2)
#9 Interactif (4/1)
#7 Paddy O’Prado (10/1)
The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby – Oaklawn Park – 1 1/8 Miles (5:47 PM ET)
Ah, the race Odysseus should really be in! The $1 million Arkansas Derby! Nine horses have lined up here, although my picks came up rather chalky looking. The top three horses I couldn’t help but focus on were SUPER SAVER, NOBLE’s PROMISE, and DUBLIN, although there are a couple of others who could threaten for the upset or a minor award.
The field sets up like this:
#1 Super Saver (9/5*)
#2 Dublin (7/2)
#3 Noble’s Promise (2/1)
#4 Northern Giant (8/1)
#5 Uh Oh Bango (15/1)
#6 New Madrid (20/1)
#7 Berberis (30/1)
#8 Line Of David (15/1)
#9 Pulsion (15/1)
SUPER SAVER would be the name amongst the big 3 who might be in the most vulnerable position. So far he’s been a “need the lead” type of horse, and it looks like he’ll have some company in the early goings here thanks to the entries of NEW MADRID and PULSION.
All this tells me that a horse coming from just off the pace might have the best shot, and it’s hard to imagine the oft-criticized son of Cuvee, NOBLE’S PROMISE, not being right there in the mix as the field hits the wire. Every race he’s in, despite how much we hear that the colt doesn’t have the talent or doesn’t want the distance, NOBLE’S PROMISE finds a way to be there at the end. With no monsters like Lookin at Lucky to contend with here, I’ll guess that Saturday is his day to shine.
DUBLIN figures to be right there in the mix as well, although he was dusted by a clear 3 lengths last out by NOBLE’s PROMISE. I’ve been fond of this son of Afleet Alex all campaign, and would love to see him put it all together and run a big one, but my gut tells me he’ll be taking home a minor award rather than the victory.
If you’re looking for a price, some horses that are capable of making some noise here are UH OH BANGO, NORTHERN GIANT, PULSION, and uber-longshot BERBERIS. I must confess here that I’ll be rooting for my man Tim Ice and his entry NEW MADRID, although the improving son of Rock Hard Ten did not factor into my final selections.
Selections:
#3 Noble’s Promise (2/1)
#2 Dublin (7/2)
#1 Super Saver (9/5*)
Best of luck to everyone. We’ll be back later this weekend with updated Derby rankings. May the horse be with you all.
Not since Godzilla saved Japan from imminent destruction at the hands of Mechagodzilla has such an incredible, mind blowing event taken place between creatures capable of capturing man’s undivided attention. On a day that included a complete turnaround on the topic, we finally have confirmation that Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta will meet in the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park on Friday, April 9th. The race everyone has clamored for is thus upon us. Our big chance to garner a sliver of national attention outside of the Kentucky Derby or Breeders’ Cup is finally here! Damn the torpedoes! It’s on like Donkey Kong!
Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta
Of course, these are fragile creatures we’re dealing with, even if they are unbelievably gifted athletes (equiletes?). Before we get too excited about things, it goes without saying that anything can happen.
Let’s think about this for a moment though. What do have here? I’m talking about the horse race of course. You’ll have to free your mind for a moment from the Japanese monster movie greatness. Two Hall of Famers in a showdown for the ages! One can almost see it now. Rachel Alexandra, the Preakness champion out in front as the field turns for home. Undefeated Zenyatta swinging to the center of the track as she inhales runners with every stride on her way to the wire. The two make eye contact, locking horns mentally and physically. A battle of wills for the ages ensues. A desperate finish. No quarter asked. No quarter given. An all out battle for the wire.
Anyone else feel like maybe we’ve seen this before?
Maybe it’s just me, but the 1988 Breeders’ Cup Distaff sure sounds very similar to what we may see in the Apple Blossom. Certainly it’s one of the easier races to attempt to draw a direct comparison from. The major difference of course being the stage – one being at the Breeders’ Cup, where such matchups, for the good of the sport, probably should happen – and the other being at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs Arkansas on a Friday night in early April – not a bad setting at all, just not the biggest stage one could imagine for such an epic race to happen.
Getting back to the race comparison – think about it. Winning Colors was the Derby champion, jetting out to a commanding early lead. Personal Ensign. the undefeated older filly that was racing on a surface some questioned whether she would enjoy. Personal Ensign comes thundering down the center of the track, meaning business with every step, catching Winning Colors in a photo finish at the wire. Seems to me that stretch battle between them is very close to what we might expect in the Apple Blossom this year.
Will history repeat itself? I’m quite certain each of these magnificent horses will run their hearts out in impressive performances. Their class will certainly rise to the top. I usually like to play longshots in situations like this where the public turns the affair into a two horse race, but not here. Not against these two monsters. I’m not sure which is Godzilla and which is Mechagodzilla – but I don’t think there’s a filly or mare in the nation that stands a chance against them. Thankfully the purse money was boosted to $5 million in an attempt to ensure both horses would run. Considering the wealth of the respective owners involved here, I don’t think money is the principal motivating factor – it’s competition. In that sense, think of the purse boost as insurance for the horses filling out the Superfecta as much as it is for the likely top two finishers.
To be honest about it though, I can’t even bet on the race apart from perhaps purchasing a souvenir $2 ticket on each. In an odd way, I’ll be rooting for both of them. That’s sort of a unique position for me. I’ve never cared so deeply about something so momentous without having a clear cut “side” I was on. I’m not taking sides here. This one is bigger than that sort of petty nonsense. This is about history, greatness, and everything that made us love the game of horse racing. All I want is a good, clean race where all runners return safely – basically what I’m hoping for each time the gate springs open.
Well, that’s not entirely true. That’s not ALL I want.
From the moment the Rachel/Zenyatta debate first raged, I’ve maintained a desire to see only one outcome – a dead heat where neither horse is forced to accept defeat.
They’re just too darned good for that. I suppose it’s the proverbial rock and a hard place. The fan and competitor in me wants to watch them race, but in my heart I don’t want to see either lose. Oh well. I suppose we can’t have our cake and eat it too. At some point you must let the caged birds fly.
Who knows though – given how close that 1988 Distaff was? I’m just sayin’ – don’t be shocked if it is a dead heat.
A view of our back deck in the middle of round 2 of "Snwomageddon" on 2/10/10
Well, if you live on the east coast anywhere near the mid-atlantic region, you’ve no doubt seen enough of the white stuff to last you a lifetime. Here in Hanover, PA we received as much as 28 inches of snow over the weekend, only to receive around 30 more inches yesterday. Right on schedule, you guessed it, there’s a chance for even more snow this coming Monday. What on Earth are folks to do being trapped inside their abodes for so long? Thankfully (or in some cases not-so-thankfully) the racing gods have sent answers to our prayers to help break the monotony in the form of numerous noteworthy or debatable issues.
Curlin’s first foal, the filly from Zophie has passed
I don’t like to start on a down note, but I have to mention this. The filly from Zophie who was Curlin’s first born has passed in what is described as a “paddock accident” just weeks after causing so much hope and well wishing at the announcement of her birth. So much fordebating what to name the little gal. I’m taking a glass half full approach with this as we all know how absolutely fragile thoroughbreds can be. The “good news” is that she is not the only of her kind. Curln’s got a fabulous looking daughter from Collect Call, a full brother from Smart Strike and Sherrif’s Deputy, and numerous other foals either just born or on their way. Be sure and check out THIS VIDEO of the foal from Collect Call – it’s a heart warmer, especially in light of the news about Zophie’s filly.
Lost in the hoopla over his direct offspring, it seems many have forgotten the full brother to Curlin who arrived Preakness week in 2009. As a reminder, here’s the video of this amazing little guy from way back then.
There’s also a foal from Curlin out of Home Court (by Storm Cat) that, if you ask me, is the spitting image of dear old dad.
Filly sired by Curlin out of Home Court (by Storm Cat)
Road to the Roses challenge
In more uplifiting news, The Road to the Roses is officially up and running. that’s right – you can enter up to 3 free stables now (10 horses, 2 trainers, and 2 jockeys). Tencentcielo has started at least one private league I’m aware of called “A dime on the ten.” Once you set your stable up, there’s an opportunity to associate it with an existing league. You won’t see me there quite yet as I’d prefer to watch the Sam F. Davis Stakes this weekend at Tampa Bay before finalizing my top ten – especially since Rule, Tempted to Tapit, and the buzz horse UpTownCharlyBrown are all slated to run.
The launching of the contest each year usually coincides with my initial “Derby watch list”, and while there’s numerous other topics I’d like to get to in this post, I will share a few quick thoughts here. My top 5 at this moment in time are listed below (can’t give away the whole stable now, can I? Although it’s probably not hard to figure out).
Vale of York (I love his stride and would love to see him on dirt this year)
Lookin at Lucky (debated not including a synthetic horse on this list, I wouldn’t bet him in the Derby, but he’s in my top 5)
Buddy’s Saint (may wind up surpassing the top two)
William’s Kitten (something about this guy I’ve liked ever since a friend pointed him out)
Ron the Greek (perhaps my most controversial addition – at this point it’s just a hunch off that last effort).
Of course, I’m also a big fan of the Tiznows like Tiz Chrome and American Lion. You can add Dorsselmeyer to that list of horses I’m also excited about. If you’re not familiar with Drosselmeyer, then fellow TBA blogger Zipse at the Track has a writeup about him that might interest you. I’ll leave the final two slots in my stable to the imagination. Suffice to say Winslow Homer would’ve been there had he not been taken off the Derby trail.
Rachel vs Zenyatta redux
Another month, another Rachel vs Zenyatta discussion. Yesterday Bloodhorse broke the news that Rachel Alexandra will not run against Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom. Almost immediately, a person posting as “Zenyatta” on Facebook began with the trash talking about “ducking” and being “scared” – and a slew of the most insane commentary I’ve ever witnessed ensued.
Question for folks – did anyone ever think she was going to run there? It seemed a foregone conclusion to me from the start of the Apple Blossom talk that it wouldn’t happen then and there. Yes, I’d like to have seen it, but I maintain that these two will meet at Belmont or Saratoga later in the year. I guess what I find appalling is the amount of hatred people have for one of these horses depending on which they love more. It makes it very difficult to be a fan of both and seems to bring out the absolute worst characteristics of humanity. I understand the frustration at not getting what we want – but let’s be careful what we ask for. We want them both on TOP of their game when they meet – so as to limit potential excuses. Why? Because one race, unless won by double-digit lengths, is likely not going to settle the issue. When you think of their respective running styles, and the prospect that Zenyatta would be flying to try and catch-and-pass Rachel in the stretch – you’re not likely to see that impressive a victory margin any way you slice it.
Anyhow, I’m not going to waste much ink (type) on this beyond acknowledging that the meetup the sport needs ain’t gonna happen at Oaklawn in the Apple Blossom. Is that really such a bad thing? Is that really where we want this to take place? I love Oaklawn, don’t get me wrong, but is that really the venue we want the race of the year/decade/century/ new millennium to be held? I guess I’m just bullish on my insistence this happen at Saratoga, if possible. Just seems like a befitting setting for two horses of such stratospheric class levels. Now if only their fans could show some of that same class. And who knows…maybe we’ll get to add Quality Road to the mix as well? Now THAT would be a race!
Tim Ice loses Summer Bird and Dr. J horses
This piece of news really took me by surprise. Tim Ice has had Summer Bird and most of his other stock removed from his stable by the Jayaramans. Having had the chance to meet both Tim and the Jayaramans on Haskell Invitational morning, 2009, at Monmouth Park, they seemed to have an exceptionally close relationship. Ice speculated it may have been due to his slow start this year, or a disagreement over the direction of Summer Bird. Whatever it was, it must’ve been something personal, as this feels like a personal disagreement rather than anything outwardly professional.
Ice is, after all, just 35 years old and already has a Belmont Stakes under his belt with Summer Bird. I really like this guy, so on a personal level I was sad to see him take this kind of hit. I’m sure the Jayaramans have their reasons though and I respect that they’ve kept the matter largely private. It might be wishful thinking, but I’m hoping cooler heads will prevail and these folks will reconcile.
In the meantime, Summer Bird is with Tim Ritchey, who is a sensational trainer is his own right, perhaps most famous for his work with Afleet Alex – a horse that coulda, woulda, shoulda been a Triple Crown winner 2005 (just my humble opinion).
Happier Times - us with trainer Tim Ice and the Jayaramans - owners of Summer Bird
So, there you have it – that’s our midweek, snowbound update. We’ll have a closer look at the Sam F. Davis and the weekend racing action coming up on Friday evening. For now, be sure and let us know where you stand on the Rachel/Zenyatta question and everything else going on in the racing world. If you’re feeling really gutsy – go ahead and share your Road to the Roses stable here. I will have a full disclosure update once I make the final selections. As you could infer above, there’s technically two spots left in my stable and I’m still debating the jockeys.
If, like me, you typically consume enough turkey and tryptophan over the Thanksgiving weekend to be able to induce hallucinogenic dream like sequences involving talking animals, cartoon characters, and eerily fitting sitar music at will, then perhaps what follows will be at least remotely entertaining.
A true psychedelic experience, this admittedly is not. Although do be sure to pass the Wavy Gravy for the mashed taters when you have a chance.
Wavy Gravy wishing you all a granola and organic food filled Thanksgiving weekend, which obviously has invaluable dental benefits.
How quickly the pages seem to turn on the trusty wall mounted calendar with each passing year. Where it feels like just yesterday we were in the midst of a spring and summer of racing for the ages, now we find ourselves preparing for the momentous holidays that bracket the passing of each year, and the arrival of the next.
While the autumn light fades on the careers of renowned champions and heroes like Zenyatta and Better Talk Now, the first light of spring shall soon radiate downward upon the heads of the next generation; specifically the two-year-olds in training at the moment who are about to turn three on New Year’s Day.
What may the future hold? Obviously we can only speculate. It might be asking a bit much to expect 2010 to even come close to the thrill and euphoria which so defined racing in 2009. Still, one gets the feeling after watching this past season that just about anything in the world is possible, if only we will it to be so.
I’m not sure how many were able to catch this, as it was not widely publicized prior to the airing, but PBS ran a phenomenal episode of “American Experience” this week that featured the story of Seabiscuit. One line from that episode stuck with me as I set down to write today. After watching the Biscuit finally conquer the Santa Anita “hundred grander” after multiple unsuccessful tries, one journalist remarked “oh, to have lived to see this day.”
Isn’t that it, really? Thank god we’ve been alive to see these moments, rather than have them as mere references that happened long ago in a time that seems only “real” on the pages of a history book? To not only be aware of the accomplishments, but to have lived to experience them? To have been filled with the rush of victory, to have stood a tip-toe and called on all within you to will your horse home. To have felt the elation of the crowd and to have thought it so tangible that one might reach out and actually touch the feeling?
So, as we prepare to sit down with family and friends and give thanks for all that we have, why not also take stock of the moments we saw this past year that captured our hearts or touched us in such a way as to remind us why it is we care so much about this game. Yes, the year and the moments are gone, fading away with each passing day, but the memory of those moments still burns bright and true, and shall do so as long as we give time for reflection and acknowledgement.
Why stop with just being thankful for memories from this most recent year though? We are, after all, on the precipice of yet another new decade. Out with the “oughts” and in with the “teens”, I suppose. Loosely inspired by a similar discussion over on the TVG Community, here’s a short list of special moments over the past decade that I’d like to give thanks for having experienced.
Sarava upsets the Triple Crown dreams of War Emblem in the 2002 Belmont
It might seem questionable to begin with a memory that involves a Triple Crown dream being shattered once again, but this memory holds personal significance for me. In fact, I almost cannot believe that June 8, 2002 was over 7 full years ago now!
You see, June 8 just happened to be the day that Amy and I were married, and as our guests filed into the outdoor enclosure we were to exchange vows within in a matter of moments, we sat in the car, turning the AM radio to an ESPN station carrying the race call.
The feeling was rather eery, almost like a flashback to days of yore, and in particular to the famed Seabiscuit/War Admiral match race of 1938, when millions of Americans had huddled around radios to hear the call as the two legends finally faced one another.
Sarava would break many hearts that day, taking advantage of a bad break for War Emblem, and powering away through the stretch to pull off one of the biggest upsets in recent memory. I like to think that this race was the first time my wife displayed hints of becoming a racing fan – and while many hearts may have been broken that day, two more were united, for eternity.
Curlin nails Street Sense at the wire to win the 2007 Preakness
I probably don’t need to go into much detail about this one, as those who read these pages have no doubt heard me relive this moment in full, vivid detail time and again over the past few years. Suffice to say, I’d never been more confident in my life that a horse would win a major race, to the point that I actually became angered whenever an “expert” insisted he’d never be able to win (and in particular I seem to recall listening to great Andy Beyer state that Curlin was “too green” to ever catch Street Sense).
In response to that statement, I pictured Curlin standing behind a fence, like Harry Dean Stanton’s character in the film Red Dawn, imploring any who would listen to “Avenge me! Avenge me!”
From our position along the grandstand, we had a perfect view as he willed his chestnut body into position and made his bid to catch Street Sense. Of all the moments, then till now, I don’t think louder sounds have ever emanated from my body – which is saying something, as I’m a fairly loud dude. That first step he took in pursuit of Street Sense, I’d swear I saw that happen in slow motion, as if from a dream sequence that I’d already seen play out countless times in my subconscious.
To this day, I get chills down my spine watching that replay.
Rachel Alexandra wills herself to the wire in the 2009 Preakness
Another special day, and one filled with yet more personal reasons for being so. As many who read the comments here know, Rachel has sort of become my wife’s version of Curlin. I’ve never seen her display such affection for a horse, and I think this started when she returned home from work just in time to see her romp by 20 lengths in the KY Oaks 2 weeks before.
As the news broke that Rachel was purchased by Jess Jackson, and that she was coming to the Preakness, we danced for joy and knew that we would have a front row seat at history in the making.
Preakness Day 2009 was sort of a down one for us early. My handicapping stunk, we weren’t cashing as many tickets as we usually do, but when Rachel came out of the gate looking to “big girl” the boys from her first step all the way to the wire – it wound up being a day like no other.
I remember fielding phone calls from people who were usually uninterested in horse racing exclaiming things like “oh my god, she (expletive deleted) did it!” In fact, I myself made an expletive laced faux pas in trying to message back a friend, and mistakenly “tweeted” to the universe “she (same expletive deleted) did it! She (again, deleted – those responsible have been sacked) did it!”
Rachel Alexandra parting the clouds and running away with the 2009 Haskell Invitational.
What I’ll always remember, beyond the elation and euphoria of the crowd from the moment “she” arrived, was that the day had been filled with torrential rains, which seemed to subside just in time for Rachel to make her presence. It’s like the clouds knew that they weren’t allowed to rain on her parade. Moments later, she became a Haskell legend.
Along the way we also got to hang out with Belmont champion Summer Bird and his trainer Tim Ice. I’ve got to admit that “the other Bird” is now one of my favorite horses in training…although I’m not quite sure about him racing in Japan. He was also Amy’s Belmont pick, so we have some history with him that we’ll never forget.
Of course, I can’t forget Gary Stute and Papa Clem either, nor the world’s most gracious host, Sophia Mangalee of Monmouth Park. Any other point in time this would likely be our top moment of the year, or perhaps the decade, but 2009 was just so stacked with such moments that I can’t help but feel, well, spoiled.
Zenyatta thundering through the stretch and gunning down Gio Ponti in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
I’ve called this the “moment of the year in a year filled with such moments.” I don’t know how else to describe it. The great denouement to a year already dubbed the “year of the filly.”
The central moment of that entire experience that will always stay with me has to be shortly after Zenyatta was led onto the main track and was making her way to the starting gate. The lead pony left her side for a moment, and Zenyatta, in typical fashion, began to do her dance – only she was doing so at a position in the dead center of the Grandstand. Thousands roared in appreciation. Yours truly, who had thought about abstaining from wagering on the race, BOLTED for the windows after seeing this demonstration, convinced that “nobody on Earth could beat her today.”
I should also note here, in tying things all together, that I wore the same clothes, right down to the socks, for Zenyatta’s Classic as I had for Rachel’s Preakness. Superstitious to a fault, eh? Actually, as you can tell from virtually any photo of me at the track in recent years, I’m not the type of guy that likes to switch things up much. I’ve got that lucky shirt, shorts, hat, socks – and that’s usually my “uniform” for the day.
Getting back to our reflection on the race for a moment, once in the gate, Zenyatta then had to sit there for what seemed like an eternity as Quality Road did his own less enthusiastic dance on the track before being scratched, and then found herself having to run down the greatest turf horse on the continent (Gio Ponti) on a Pro Ride surface largely ridiculed for being “turf impersonating” (or at least favoring turf runners) – including (yes, I’ll admit it) by yours truly.
We all know what happened next. A memory of memories – one that will live with racing fans for decades.
That’s just a small sample of the moments I’ll be giving thanks for as the extended weekend begins. With any luck I’ll be adding to those memories with a victory in the Iron Bowl by my beloved Crimson Tide of Alabama, capping off the end to yet another undefeated regular season.
What about you guys? As the end of 2009 draws near and you sit down to contemplate what we’ve seen over the past decade, which memories stick out to you as the most treasured and revered?
We all know how ferociously the Horse of the Year debate is currently running on the net. In stark contrast to that heaviness, here’s an attempt at a little light hearted humor hoping to bring a few smiles to people’s faces. I originally posted this over on the TVG Community, and am now posting it here as well in the hopes that some might enjoy a break from the actual hardcore debating.
What follows are some badly paraphrased and misquoted phrases from political discourse (okay, and one quote that has nothing to do with political debates, although the film the quote is from did contain scenes surrounding a political campaign and candidate) in recent memory. No one is spared parody; Right, left, conservative, liberal (although we did bypass the independent and 3rd party quotes, so I suppose Libertarians and Green Party voters were technically spared, but I digress).
‘Tis all fair game in love and war (and lame attempts at horse racing related humor)!
By order of the 111th Congress of the United States of America, I have been hereby nominated to moderate a series of debates between Breeders’ Cup Classic champion Zenyatta, and 3-year-old filly sensation Rachel Alexandra concerning the 2009 Horse of the Year campaign.
With the nation divided, the people have a right to know who their Horse of the Year should be.
Let’s join the action live.
Good evening, the first question will go to the filly.
Rachel Alexandra, how do you respond to the allegations that you “ducked” Zenyatta in the Breeders’ Cup Classic?
“You talkin’ to me? You TALKIN’ to me?? You talkin’ to ME??? Well who else are you – you talkin’ to me????”
Yes, we were actually talking to you. The debate has officially started. You know what, fuhgedaboudit, we’ll come back to you in a moment.
Let’s try a question for you, Zenyatta.
How do you respond to suggestions that you enjoyed a significant home field advantage in the Breeders’ Cup?
“I can see Santa Anita from my back yard.”
Interesting. I did not know that. Weird, wild stuff.
Okay, let’s come back to Rachel again for the next question. Hopefully this goes better than before.
Rachel, while your campaign was brilliant, what do you say to those who believe that the Breeders’ Cup Classic is the race that ought to decide the champion?
“That depends on what your definition of “is” is.
Okay…not really sure I understand that answer.
“I did NOT HAVE previous relations with that Pro Ride surface!”
Of course not, although some will offer that you were accomplished over synthetics at Keeneland…
“Read my lips! That is all part of a vast, West Coast conspiracy!”
“Excuse me, If I could just get a word in here edge wise?”
Of course, Zenyatta, we can certainly make time for an undefeated Classic winner. You have 30 seconds to respond to the filly’s statement.
“There is no East Coast domination of horse racing, and there never will be under a Zenyatta administration.”
Wow, emphatic!
Rachel, would you like to respond to that statement?
“Ich bin ein champion!”
Few would disagree with you.
Moving on, the next question goes to Zenyatta.
Some folks have suggested that the campaign of your rival is more significant because she is a mere 3-years-old compared to you. How do you respond to those statements?
“I want you to know also I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit for selfish purposes my opponent’s youth and inexperience.”
“I have as much experience in racing as Curlin did when he ran for Horse of the Year in 2007!”
“With all do respect, I knew Curlin; Curlin was a friend of mine during his stay here for the 2008 Breeders’ Cup. Rachel, you’re no Curlin.”
“There you go again.”
“People have had 2 straight years of Jess Jackson and Steve Asmussen. What they want is change. Change they can believe in. What we need is a uniter, not a divider. Mr and Mrs. Eclipse Award voters – TEAR DOWN THESE WALLS!”
“Oh yeah, well when I look over your races this year, I’m reminded of that ad, ‘Where’s the beef?”
Ladies, ladies, please! Riveting exchange, but let’s get back on track here, shall we?
Oh wait,what’s that? My producers are telling me something.
I’m afraid we’re out of time for the evening and it’s probably best to cut this post short right here.
We hope you’ve enjoyed this mockery of famous political quotes (and one gratuitous and randomly referenced Taxi Driver quote) created as a satire of our current discourse regarding Horse of the Year.
Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.
P.S. Don’t forget to vote in our poll and join the actual debate in our previous post: The Great Debate: 2009 Horse of the Year.
An interesting thing happened in the comments of our post discussing the 2009 Horse of the Year debate. While we went back and forth extolling the virtues and questions about the Breeders’ Cup Classic champion and undefeated mare Zenyatta as opposed to the 3-year-old filly phenom Rachel Alexandra, a suggestion was put forth to consider amending the Eclipse Award voting process.
The idea was one that immediately caught my attention, and has been discussed a bit both here and within the TVG Community forum. In short time it has now attracted the attention of even those within the NTRA, garnering specific mention by CEO Alex Waldrop in his most recentStraight Up blog post.
The suggestion, from regular reader and frequent guest author Mr. Del Mar, was as follows:
“I’d prefer to see something special done for this year’s horse of the year award…how about they have a text vote and online vote from each and every horseplayer or horse racing fan for $1 a vote and the proceeds go to race horse retirement. If we want to argue about nothing… let’s make the byproduct be positive and about something important…more important than a piece of bronze. We as horseplayers are well known for putting our money where our mouth is. Well we never got the race to do just that, but we can do it for horse of the year honors and let the Old Pro (forgotten contenders) profit from our passion.”
Considering the conviction with which so many racing fans are currently arguing the issue of Horse of the Year, this seemed like a no brainer to me. The sport is trying to maintain and build relevancy, as well as to uncover innovative ways to incorporate new and younger fans into the game.
One of the unspoken yet daunting challenges we face is that any fans Zenyatta may have created through her brilliant performance in the Breeders’ Cup Classic will be difficult to maintain given that they won’t be able to see her run again. However, what if they could participate in something like a Horse of the Year selection process? Might that provide an avenue through which to maintain their attention with respect to horse racing? Seems like it might do so. Even for the more established fans, the venerable regulars, aren’t we always complaining that we have no say in things? What a remarkable turnaround something like this could be!
That being said, there are legitimate reasons to be concerned with such a suggestion that are definitely worth discussing. Before getting into all of that, I’ll remind folks that the idea was merely a suggestion, not a finalized proposal that had been thoroughly critiqued and given a chance to evolve through revisions of any sort through a comprehensive analysis or initiative planning process. As anyone who has participated in brainstorming sessions within their own respective lines of business will no doubt be familiar with, one of the more crucial steps in considering fundamental changes to a given process is the generation of new ideas.
During the process of idea generation, it’s often wise not to get too wrapped up in arguing for or against a particular idea, but rather to get it on paper so that it can be further evaluated once other ideas have been similarly generated. Once generated and added to the list of topics to discuss in depth, then and only then should they be championed or opposed. I say this because that’s really where we are right now. We’ve got a suggestion to discuss the merits of and inherent complications/concerns with implementing. It can still be nurtured, altered, and outright amended, but the spirit of the suggestion reads pretty clearly; make the voting process more democratic and inclusive of racing fans, and if possible find some way to benefit retired horses who are often forgotten and need our continued support and generosity the most. Seems fair enough to me.
Looking over the merits of the suggestion, I think allowing fans to have a say in post season awards is actually not that far fetched of an idea. The NTRA/Breeders’ Cup folks already do this with respect to “Moment of the Year” voting – something which admittedly even as passionate a fan as myself has had limited awareness of/participation with. What about other sports? While MVP awards are typically not opened to public voting in the NFL, MLB, and NBA, certainly All-Star (or Pro Bowl) voting is up to the fans – with no concern as to how many times one votes or how much of a collective appreciation for the game as a whole an individual voter may have. Do we wind up with Yankees at every position each year? Well, yes we do – but it’s not like the fans elect a bunch of scrubs (for the most part). I’d say all thing being equal (and given the few quirks in place, such as the MLB’s insistence on having a representative from each team), the All-Star/Pro Bowl voting processes are considered a success.
As for giving everyone an opportunity to vote democratically, I hope the suggestion will not be misinterpreted as some sort of condemnation of those already entrusted with that honor. No doubt they’ve done a fine job over the years in conducting the voting process and selecting the Eclipse Award champions. Rather, think of the suggestion as an opportunity to build upon that and invite more into the process…admittedly many more. We are Americans after all, a people defined by our passion for having a say in how affairs are decided. It’s part of the fabric of our national identity. If we don’t vote on the issue at hand directly, we nominate those whose votes will represent us. I realize of course that the Eclipse Awards are not a “public’ issue to vote on, but there’s nothing set in stone that says that can’t be changed if indeed it would generate more interest and involvement with the sport (not to mention potential publicity).
Still, the element of the suggestion that I find most intriguing is the idea of charging a nominal fee (such as $1) to register to vote, and then using those proceeds to benefit retired race horses through a charitable donation. Who amongst us wouldn’t like to see more done for our (largely) forgotten heroes?
As mentioned earlier, however, there are legitimate concerns that should absolutely be a part of the discussion. Let’s start with the obvious.
Are we really suggesting that everyone would have an equal say in Horse of the Year voting? How could we possibly allow someone who may have just seen their first horse race ever with Zenyatta in the Classic to vote on the year as a whole and have an equal say compared to others with years of experience and more well trained eyes? I know it’s hard to swallow at first, but my answer would be a resounding “Yes!” If we remember that we allow all people in this nation to have a vote in matters of infinitely more important concern, such as Presidential and Congressional elections, then suddenly allowing people to have a say in Horse of the Year voting seems to pale in comparison, doesn’t it? Consider that the average 18-year-old, fresh out of High School, has as much say from an individual voting process in the future direction of the nation as does a combat veteran who has been decorated for multiple tours in a foreign war.
What I’m getting at here is that the right to have a say in things and to have our vote counted and our voices heard is as American as apple pie. It’s been a part of who we are for hundreds of years, and I believe other sports, and indeed other outlets that whether we like or not we do compete for attention with (such as ”reality” television) have already capitalized on this desire far better than we have. I understand the fear in letting the uninformed vote in things, but if it works for electing the leader of the free world, it ought to be acceptable in deciding something as simple as who Horse of the Year should be.
I’ll use myself as an example for the above. Am I a professional? Nope, never been paid a dime for anything I’ve written horse racing related. Do I think my opinion ought to matter just as much as anyone else’s? You bet your you-know-what I do. I was at the Preakness, Haskell, and Classic LIVE and IN PERSON (not to mention the Mother Goose), and I wonder how many of the current voters can say the same? With that in mind, I’d put my opinion right on par with anyone else’s. I’m not saying my opinion is any better or more correct than anyone else’s, but that it’s just as informed (at least in my mind) and as worthy. Doubtless there are numerous others who could say the same.
One other angle to consider with respect to the above is a related concern. I’ve heard folks put forth the logical conclusion that the voting would turn into a popularity contest of sorts. My question in response to this suggestion is whether we know definitively whether this isn’t the case already? I mean on some level, isn’t that inevitable, no matter who votes? Looking over just the comments in response to Alex Waldrup’s post suggests folks are concerned about a perceived bias (real or imagined) in the existing voting contingent based largely on what coast of the country they are more closely associated with.
Further, who exactly is the award “for?” Certainly the horses themselves are unable to understand the designation. It must be for us then, the people. The most obvious and immediate benefactors of the awards are the connections of a given horse. It is they that take pride in winning an award, and it is they who make their way to the podium and bore us into exhaustion with their acceptance speeches (only kidding). There is, however, another group that also cares a whole heckuva lot about the awards; fans. Fans are the ones who make the award matter. We’re the ones who watch the awards show and celebrate when our beloved heroes triumph, and of course threaten defenestrations when our guys (and gals, especially this year) lose. We’re also the ones who will be talking about them years from now as we spout off about the horses that have made us the devotees to horse racing we have become.
“Let the defenestrations commence!”
Thankfully, the suggestion by Mr. Del Mar and the discussion generated in the comments here seems to have caught the attention from some folks in high places. Now that Alex Waldrup has specifically referenced the suggestion in his latest post, it’s time to start talking about whether something like this makes sense for the long term? Admittedly it’s probably too late for 2009, since technically the voting process has already begun, but might something like Mr. Del Mar’s suggestion be worth considering the following year? Might something like this actually spark much needed renewed interest and discussion within our sport?
Personally, I’d like to thank Alex Waldrop, Keith Chamblin, and Fritz Widaman for having the courage to listen to an outside the box proposal and not immediately brush it aside. Even if popular opinion winds up being that the current process is sufficient and needs no alteration, it still feels like a conversation we ought to be having, and they (the folks at the NTRA) deserve to be commended for their open mindedness and the speed with which they acted upon it to include mention in a public blog posting. Far too often it’s easy for us to dismiss those in power as not caring about the voice of the fan or of being totally disconnected from the reality of the situation fans experience. Having met each of these guys individually and spoken at length with them, I can tell you with with absolute certainty that in my estimation such concerns are not at all warranted with respect to these gentlemen. Heck, it was Fritz that I turned to slap high-fives with as Zenyatta crossed the wire in the Classic. My point being that these guys are fans just like you and I, and though they don’t have the power of the centralized authority figures in other sports (NFL, MLB, NBA, etc.), they are certainly great guys to have on your side.
Of course, as Alex mentions, it’s really not within his realm of responsibility to make that kind of change, but I thank him for mentioning it publicly and thereby lending some credibility to the idea. That just might be enough to get the ball rolling. Only time will tell.
I’m curious to know what readers think about the suggestion? I’m not necessarily looking for a definitive opinion here, although doubtless there will be many and they are certainly welcomed if already concluded. What I’m really after is whether you believe, like me, this is something we ought to be talking about for 2010? Would you have any additional suggestions or concerns that should be brought up, if indeed the discussion moves forward?
Finally – it’s Classic time. The “race of the year” (although not necessarily for Horse of the Year, as evidenced by recent history) for an overall purse of $5 million. Obviously the story of the race is the entry of the undefeated mare Zenyatta – one of the sports biggest stars in North America and a hometown hero that the masses will turn out to support in droves for her first try against the boys.
Last year we had another equally beloved North American horse coming in as the heavy favorite. Of course I’m talking here of my beloved Curlin. Despite a bold move as the field neared the top of the stretchthat at first glance appeared to be trademarked, patented Curlin - he ultimately floundered through the final furlong and wound up finishing 4th, passed by two horses that had shipped in from Europe in both Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator.
Will things be different this year? It was supposed to be the “year of the filly” – but the Fighting Phils blew the World Series to the N.Y. Yankees last night. Still, might that be a favorable omen for Zenyatta? Think about it – if her biggest threats are coming from across the pond once again, then is it a good sign that the “Yankees” won? We horseplayers are nothing if not superstitious, so it’s something to think about.
Speaking of which – I’d encourage ALL horseplayers to go to ourTBA homepage right now and play along with our “BC Picks” feature. Basically it’s just a google doc spreadsheet. Contact Handrideif you have any questions about how to enter your picks. I see at least one regular reader (Mark Ripple) is already there – hopefully we’ll see more of you shortly.
Since this post will also be featured until I return from the Breeders’ Cup Sunday evening, I’d also like to point out that I’ve updated the page entitled “2009 Breeders’ Cup” so that you can easily navigate to the selections/analysis for each of the BC races this weekend. Basically it’s the old “2009 Triple Crown” page that used to be in the same spot – only that information has been moved down a few notches. Just trying to keep things as easy as can be for the readers here.
Getting back to the Classic, the field sets up like this:
Mine That Bird (12/1)
Colonel John (12/1)
Summer Bird (9/2)
Zenyatta (5/2*)
Twice Over (20/1)
Richard’s Kid (12/1)
Gio Ponti (12/1)
Einstein (12/1)
Girolamo (20/1)
Rip Van Winkle (7/2)
Regal Ransom (20/1)
Quality Road (12/1)
Awesome Gem (30/1)
“Slow Cheetah come, it’s so euphoric. Looks like it’s on today…” (“Slow Cheetah” being my pet name for Zenyatta)
MINE THAT BIRD – the 3-year-old “little gelding who could” that shocked the world with his stunning 50/1 upset in the Kentucky Derbyback in May. Sadly, that was the last time he found the winner’s circle, although he did come charging well late against Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness. He just hasn’t seemed the same horse since then, and his relatively uninspiring effort over the Santa Anita Pro Ride in the Goodwood (Grade 1) last month does not leave me thinking he’s got much of a chance here. He’s shocked us before – so keep that in mind before you toss him out, but as much as I like this gelding and his trainer, Chip Woolley Jr., I’m just not seeing it.
COLONEL JOHN was my original selection for the 2008 Kentucky Derby. Since then I’ve had a bit of a tough love relationship with him. He’s a Tiznow colt, and I’m nothing if not a Tiznow fan, so he’ll always hold a special place in my heart. It just seems like whenever I expect big things from him, he struggles, and whenever I dismiss his chances, he runs huge. He’s capable of running big here, but I’m going to consider others as more solid selections for win honors. If my Colonel John conundrum continues, that might suggest he’s primed for his best performance. For now, I’ll say he’s a contender and leave it at that.
SUMMER BIRD might be the forgotten colt of the entire field. This is likely due to his lack of previous racing experience over the synthetic surfaces. The son of Birdstone did train over the Santa Anita Pro Ride before joining the barn of Trainer Tim Ice – a man who was beyond awesome to my entire family on Haskell day at Monmouth Park. Since we got to meet Summer Bird that day, and since he was my wife’s Belmont pick, you best believe he’ll be on all my tickets. Am I worried about the synthetics? Nope, not at all – and my gut tells me this guy is one of the better North American horses in racing. Case in point – immediately following the Haskell, our conversations with Ice revealed that he didn’t want to run into Rachel Alexandra ever again, but he’s confident enough again in his colt following his victories in the Travers and the Jockey Club Gold Cup that he now publicly states he wants another shot at her. Not many folks would say such a thing – and Tim is a consummate gentlemen, so don’t mistake that for false bravado. He’s sincere in everything he says, which tells me this colt is poised. Big factor – and expect to see those odd s of 9/2 improve dramatically once the betting windows open up.
ZENYATTA - what’s left to say about my beloved “Slow Cheetah?” The 50-foot woman…the undefeated super star who has been the poster girl for California racing for 2 seasons now. This is her biggest moment, and while she’s facing boys for the first time and taking on a new distance as well, she’s simply one of the classiest animals I’ve had the pleasure of seeing. If this is indeed her swan song (which recent discussions suggest it will not be), then it shall be with a watery eye that I bid her farewell. My love affair with Zenyatta began the evening she broke her maiden in her debut in late 2007. I had just decided to start posting picks online and experimenting with these peculiarities called “blogs.” The rest, quite literally, is history. I’m expecting her finest hour – and that’s exactly what it will likely take to prevail. If this plays out the way she usually does things, expect a heart-stopping photo finish type of cliffhanger ending at the wire. You KNOW she’ll be flying late.
TWICE OVER is the sneakiest of the European invaders by virtue of being 20/1 on the morning line. I’ll say this, given the fact that European shippers ran 1, 2 in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic, wouldn’t it make sense to at least take a flyer on a RIP VAN WINKLE/TWICE OVER exacta here? We are, after all, talking about a horse that has won 3 straight overseas, including besting the filly Sariska in the Champion Stakes (Group 1). He didn’t appear to run his best race when he tangled with RIP VAN WINKLE in the Eclipse Stakes back in July, but his running line denotes that he was “bumped’ in that race. Further, he simply might be a better horse now than he was back then. Very interesting and quite usable colt given the 20/1 value on the morning line.
RICHARD’S KID was the upset special for trainer Bob Baffert in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic in early September. The son of Lemon Drop Kid shocked us all by beating EINSTEIN at 24/1, and then returned to run 3rd beaten only a length to COLONEL JOHN and Gitano Hernando. In other words, he doesn’t appear to be a fluke, so you might want to keep him around on your tickets.
GIO PONTI is probably the best North American turf horse at the moment. So what’s he doing here rather than racing in the BC Turf? I’m not entirely certain, although it would appear he does seem to favor the 10 furlong distance. The son of Tale of the Cat did win here in the Sir Beaufort over the Pro Ride when that race came off the turf last December. If you’re a believer that turf form translates well to the Pro Ride, then you shouldn’t have any doubts about his chances. He has to be considered a player in here with a chance.
EINSTEIN is the hard trying son of Spend a Buck that has earned fans from all over the nation the past 3 years. I’ll always remember the first time I saw him live on Preakness Day in 2007, when a spill caused him to toss jockey Robby Albarado just 2 races before Curlin’s date with destiny in the Preakness. Ultimately we lost the colt Mending Fences that day, but since then Einstein has gone on to become one of the most versatile horses in all of racing. His motto, if he could speak, would surely be something along the lines of “any surface, any track, any time.” A rare Grade 1 winner on dirt, turf, and synthetics. He’s run into some hard luck and close finishes this year, so it would be nice to see him fight his way back into the winner’s circle. Ultimately I like him better as an underneath play here.
GIROLAMO is the most lightly raced of the contenders, and a 3-year-old son of A. P. Indy. He’s never been two turns before, but his pedigree suggests he’ll handle it. For me the tougher question is figuring out where he might fit into the equation pace wise. I’m guessing he’ll be right up there trying to go with Regal Ransom. He’s definitely a nice colt that is on the improve and eligible to continue to move forwad, but he’ll be on a new surface, going two turns for the first time, and facing a level of competition he’s never seen before. That might be asking just a tad too much here.
RIP VAN WINKLE is the main threat to ZENYATTA’s quest for glory here in the Classic. The son of Galileo has been very sharp lately, taking both the Sussex Stakes and the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1 races both) in his last two efforts. Prior to that he was only 1 length behind Sea the Stars in the Eclipse Stakes (and, notably, 4 1/2 lengths in front of Conduit – whom I just made top selection in the BC Turf….hmmmmm). In fact, he lost 3 straight to Sea the Stars, but never finished worse than 4th and was never further than 2 1/2 lengths from the colt considered by many to be among the best they have ever seen in Europe. Trainer Aidan O’Brien and jockey Johnny Murtagh will team up once again here and look to steal the victory from the hometown hero. The obvious question will be how he handles the synthetics, and as always one must take a bit of a leap of faith in backing a runner like this, but he does look tough to deal with here. In fact, he looks tougher than anything ZENYATTA has ever seen. As much as it pains me to do it, he’s going to be the top pick. Don’t “sleep” on this guy (lame, I know, but I couldn’t resist).
REGAL RANSOM is a horse I was admittedly quite enamored with during the Triple Crown season earlier this year. Things didn’t quite work out for him, as he finished 8th over the Churchill slop on Derby day, but he did return to wire the field in the Super Derby last out (Grade 2). He seems to be a legit pace factor here, and that could have him in a favorable position if he were to get loose on the lead. Of course, as mentioned earlier, GIRALOMO appears to want to have something to say about that, and so might QUALITY ROAD, so it’s not enough to make me think upset here. Word is that he has been working extremely well here, so definitely think about using him underneath on the exotics.
QUALITY ROAD was once my top Derby selection for 2009. This means that my top Derby picks for the last 2 years are now here in this race. The speedy son of Elusive Quality has been unable to catch SUMMER BIRD in his last two starts over wet surfaces in New York. I’d expect him to be on the muscle early on and looking to press REGAL RANSOM should that one try to waltz away with things untested early on. It’s hard for me to think he’ll win this, but he can still be a factor. One angle to keep in mind is that this is a colt who had some issues with his feet earlier in the year, and quite a few horses with similar problems have really taken to the softer synthetic surfaces.
AWESOME GEM was the third place finisher in the 2007 Classic behind Curlin and Hard Spun. Last year he finished 6th in the BC Mile. I’d give him a shot if we were on a true dirt surface and rain was in the forecast, but his 1 for 12 record on synthetics leaves me thinking he’s an outsider here.
How do I see this race playing out? I think REGAL RANSOM, QUALITY ROAD, and GIROLAMO will contest things early on . As the field nears the turn, ZENYATTA will start to uncoil and swing wide (like she always does) and start mowing down horses in front of her. RIP VAN WINKLE will be a bit more forwardly placed along with SUMMER BIRD, EINSTEIN, and TWICE OVER. This group will actually get frist run at the leading trio, with ZENYATTA, COLONEL JOHN, RICHARD’s KID, MINE THAT BIRD, and GIO PONTI further back.
I like RIP VAN WINKLE and ZENYATTA to rise to the top, due to their respective class, and leave us with a finish for th ages. I’m calling a photo finish that could go either way depending on the head bob. Two gutsy, world class competitors leaving it all on the line. No quarter shall be asked, and none shall be given. God bless ‘em, this ought to be a good one.
Selections:
#10 Rip Van Winkle (7/2)
#4 Zenyatta (5/2*)
#3 Summer Bird (9/2)
Best of luck to all! May this be a Breeders’ Cup to remember. Don’t forget that we’ve got all 13 of the previous Breeders’ Cup races for the weekend covered as well. For quick access, you can locate those posts here.
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