Breeders’ Cup Turf Selections

5 11 2009

The 2009 running of the Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Turf has come up extremely intriguing this year, thanks to the presence of the lightning quick Presious Passion, the classy European filly Dar Re Mi, fellow invader Spanish Moon, and the presence of defending champion Conduit.  A cool $3 million will be on the line as the horses go to post on Saturday for the 1 1/2 mile run over the Santa Anita turf. 

The field sets up like this:

  1. Telling (20/1)
  2. Conduit (7/5*)
  3. Red Rocks (20/1)
  4. Allegre (50/1)
  5. Dar Re Mi (3/1)
  6. Presious Passion (4/1)
  7. Spanish Moon (5/2)
  8. Monzante (30/1)

TELLING is a son of A.P. Indy who took many horseplayers by surprise when he suddenly broke out as a Grade 1 winner in the Sword Dancer at Saratoga this summer.  Prior to that race, the 5-year-old had struggled to find the winner’s circle for quite some time.  He wasn’t able to repeat that effort when he returned in the Grade 1 Turf Classic Invitational at Belmont last month, and has now drawn the dreaded rail post position.  This will be the toughest competition he’s ever seen, so he’ll need his absolute best to contest for win honors.

CONDUIT is the defending champion from last year’s BC Turf.  A year ago he was coming into this race off of consecutive victories at the Group 3 and Group 1 levels, respectively.  This year he’s got a Group 1 victory in the King George, and a very respectable 4th place finish to Sea the Stars in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe behind him as attempts to defend his crown.  If the Conduit we’ve come to know and love shows up, the others could be running for place and show.  In particular, the presence of Presious Passion in this field ensures he’ll have a target to run at.  Now the question will be whether he can run that target down.  With 12 furlongs to work with, he’ll have plenty of time to do so (although to be honest, the longer the race the slower the anticipated pace usually is).

RED ROCKS will forever be the “horse that spoiled my trip to see Curlin in the Man O’ War back in 2008.  I’m not sure I’ll ever be able to forgive him for that day.  Here’s a guy who is a previous Breeders’ Cup Turf winner, something you certainly have to respect.  I’m just not sure he’s capable anymore now at 6-years-old as things seem to have turned slightly southward this year. 

ALLEGRE is the longsthot of the field at 50/1, and a 4-year-old son of Orientate that would need to both move forward significantly and run his absolute best to factor here, although trainer Brian Koriner is usually good with turfers.

DAR RE MI is the European shipper I’m most fond of here.  The daughter of Singspiel was 2nd to Zarkava (2008 Arc de Triomphe champion) in the Group 1 Prix Vermeile last year and ran a respectable 5th (beaten by 3 1/4 lengths) to Sea the Stars in the 2009 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – the richest turf race in the world.  In between she’s bested a filly that I’m extremely fond of named Sariska, as well as the talented Stacelita (although she was ultimately disqualified and placed 5th).  A major player in here for sure who could keep the filly and mare mojo flowing on Saturday with a brilliant performance.

PRESIOUS PASSION is the lightning in a bottle speed of the speed in here.  Remember that effort of his in the United Nations when he was 20 lengths clear of the field the first time around the track?  I don’t think he’ll go that crazy, but he will be looking to open things up quite comfortably in the early going in an attempt to build an insurmountable lead and then hang on for dear life as DAR RE MI, CONDUIT, and SPANISH MOON come charging.  Always dangerous if loose on the lead.

SPANISH MOON is a very intriguing European shipper that has run 6 straight solid races – with 4 of them being victories  – most notably the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud.  Coming off back to back wins (including a defeat of Youmzain, the runner-up finisher in the 2009 Arc de Triomphe) signals that this son of El Prado is ready to run a big one in his first visit to the U.S.  Respect his chances.

MONZANTE rounds out the field for trainer Mike Mitchell, who will return the son of Maria’s Mon to the guiding hands of jockey Rafael Bejarano.  The pair teamed up for two of this horse’s better performances last year at Del Mar, and will look to recapture some of that previous magic.  Finished 7th, though only beaten by a collective 4 lengths to Colonel John and Gitano Hernando in the Goodwood last out.  Rates as an outside possiblity on his top stuff.

Overall I think CONDUIT is still the guy you’ve got to get passed here, and I’ll give the defending champ the nod.  You won’t hear any argument from me though to those who side with DAR RE MI, PRESIOUS PASSION, or SPANISH MOON as all 3 seem quite capable of winning.  In my mind, PRESIOUS PASSION leads the field into the stretch, when these 3 come charging home. I like CONDUIT getting home on top by a very slim margin, with PRESIOUS PASSION holding on to finish 2nd or 3rd, and either DAR RE MI or SPANISH MOON taking the other slice. 

Selections:

  • #2 Conduit (7/5*)
  • #6 Presious Passion (4/1)
  • #5 Dar Re M (3/1)

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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup Coverage, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Presious Passion, Santa Anita

Breeders’ Cup Mile Selections

4 11 2009

Eleven contenders are set to line up for a surprisingly deep field in the Grade 1 TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile on Saturday at Santa Anita.  The field includes last year’s champion filly Goldikova, who will be taking on the boys again in her quest for repeat glory. 

The field sets up as follows:

  1. Court Vision (12/1)
  2. Whatsthescript (15/1)
  3. Cowboy Cal (6/1)
  4. Delegator (3/1)
  5. Karelian (20/1)
  6. Courageous Cat (20/1)
  7. Ferneley (20/1)
  8. Zacinto (8/1)
  9. Gladiatorus (20/1)
  10. Justenuffhumor (10/1)
  11. Goldikova (8/5*)

Can Goldikova match the legacy of Miesque and make it back-to-back victories over the boys in the TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile?

COURT VISION – his wins may be few and far between lately, but 12/1 feels like a steal on this guy.  The son of Gulch was once a contender for the 2008 Kentucky Derby, but has become one of the better  turf runners in the U.S. since that point in time.  He’s had trouble facing off against Presious Passion, Gio Ponti, and Einstein this year, but will thankfully avoid all three in this race.  On the other hand, he now runs into the likes of GOLDIKOVA and DELEGATOR.  Rick Dutrow took over training COURT VISION and promptly helped him return to the winner’s circle last out in the Shadwell Turf Mile over soft footing at Keeneland.  On his best stuff, he can certainly be a factor here, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Dutrow have him ready to run a big one.  I like that he was a bit closer up in the Shadwell Turf Mile, as that may have helped him out over the late closing style that Dominguez and Mott employed in his previous 2009 starts.  This is a solid horse, although contention runs deep in this race.

WHATSTHESCRIPT finished 3rd in this race last year behind GOLDIKOVA and KIP DEVILLE.  To be honest, I liked his form coming into this event last year much better than what we’ve seen this year. You have to to back to the 2008 Del Mar mile to find his last victory, and while he can definitely threaten for a minor award, a win would seem to be just a bit of a stretch to predict here.  This is clearly his best distance, and he has run well over the Santa Anita turf. 

COWBOY CAL is admittedly one of my favorite horses in training.  There’s just something about him that I love.  The son of Giant’s Causeway will likely attempt to wire the field once again – something that’s been difficult to do at this level for him.  In recent races, JUSTENUFFHUMOR has seemingly had his number, but he has finished ahead of COURT VISION and WHATSTHESCRIPT.  Could this be the day he hangs on for victory?  It’s interesting to note that GOLDIKOVA seemingly got torched a bit by a very fast pace in the Prix de la Foret last out at Longchamp.  I don’t think COWBOY CAL will be going as fast here, but it shows that it’s not entirely impossible to envision him exiting victorious.  He’ll be my rooting interest in this race.  I haven’t definitively made up my mind yet how much I’ll support him with my wallet.

DELEGATOR is the first in a series of very live foreign invaders looking to take the TVG Mile.  Yet again, we’re dealing with a Godolphin runner that has (who else?) Dettori aboard.  The 3-year-old son of Dansili is a Group 2 winner at Goodwood, having prevailed in the Celebration Mile over today’s rival ZACINTO.  The names of horses he’s faced in recent races reads like a who’s who in terms of 2009 Breeders’ Cup contenders from Europe, including Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman (not to mention Sea the Stars).  A classy horse you’ve got to respect in this spot.

KARELIAN is one of the few horses in this field that I have trouble making a case for in terms of being a potential win candidate.  He’s a fine gelding, for sure, and seems to be running better now in his old age (7-years-old) than he did earlier in his career.  It’s just that he’ll be stepping up a bit in terms of class and would need the race of his life here to prevail.  Just about any of these guys could hit the board somewhere, but I wouldn’t recommend him as a win play.  Of course, if you do like him, then 20/1 is certainly worth a shot.

COURAGEOUS CAT – every time I type this horse’s name, I travel back to my childhood and the Saturday morning cartoon shorts of “Courageous Cat and Minute Mouse.”  Almost nobody seems to remember that, but it seems this guy’s connections do.  On paper the son of Storm Cat might not stand out, but keep in mind this is a relatively lightly raced 3-year-old who could be eligible to move forwarda bit. He’s got decent enough recent form, having won 3 of his last 4, but like others would probably need to run a career defining race here to prevail. 

FERNELEY managed to defeat Allicansayis Wow and Lethal Heat two races back in the Del Mar Mile, and then finished a game 2nd to Ventura in the Woodbine Mile.  That’s pretty good recent company to have kept.  The 5-year-old son of Ishiguru has fired fresh before back in April at Golden Gate, and would need a similar effort to have a shot here.  To that end, his workout tab is dotted with bullets lately.  Seems like an outsider at first glance but could be primed for a solid performance.

ZACINTO is a horse who might get overlooked a bit at the windows.  It’s hard to imagine that considering how the 3-year-old son of Dansili has classed up when facing Rip Van Winkle and DELEGATOR this year.  The morning line odds of 8/1 seem like a gift given this guy’s capability.  If you like DELEGATOR, don’t you have to like this guy as well?  I just question why the other is 3/1 and this guy is 8/1?  Seems a bit odd if you ask me, especially since ZACINTO was 3 1/4 lengths ahead of DELEGATOR at the wire in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) at Royal Ascot on September 25.  A major player in this race.

GLADIATORUS exits a victory in the Group 1 Premio Vittorio di Capua in Italy – a race I could tell you next to nothing about.  The son of Silic has faced off against GOLDIKOVA in the past, and did not turn in one of his more memorable performances (beaten by 20 1/2 lengths).  On the plus side, he has won 8 of 13 lifetime starts going 8 furlongs, and when he does run “his race”, he seems quite capable.  I just tend to prefer some of the other shippers a bit more.  He tends to lead early, according to his running lines, which suggests he may be a pace factor along with COWBOY CAL and perhaps COURAGEOUS CAT and/or KARELIAN.

JUSTENUFFHUMOR did not fire over the soft footing at Keeneland in the Shadwell Turf Mile last out, but prior to that flop had been 6 for his previous 6.  I think you draw a line through that last race and try to focus on his other races.  The son of Distorted Humor should be closing into the pace as they near the stretch, and if he can return to the form he showed in the Bernard Baruch Handicap (Grade 2), he can definitely factor here.  My main concern is that a mile just doesn’t seem on paper to be his best distance.  We shall see.

GODIKOVA - what can you say about one of the ladies who helped make the 2008/2009 seasons such a story book time for fillies and mares?  Far before the world went “Rachel crazy”, we had GOLDIKOVA defeating colts in the 2008 BC Mile.  Some folks might be ready to jump ship given her recent unexpected defeat in the Prix de la Foret (Group 1) at Longchamp last out, but I’m going to be forgiving here and assume that Goldi is still the horse to beat in this race.  She’s arguably the top miler in the world, and may have simply been too close to a hot pace last out in a race that she didn’t necessarily “need” to be ready here.  Trainer Freedie Head knows a thing or two about fillies in this race, having rode Miesque to victories in the 1988 and 1989 runnings of the BC Mile. She’s still the horse to beat, although this year seems to set up a bit more difficult than the 2008 race did – even with the presence of Kip Deville last year.

I’ll use GOLDIKOVA as top selection here.  ZACINTO and DELEGATOR would seem to be the top threats in my opinion, although I’m not going to count COWBOY CAL or COURT VISION out of this fight either.  A resurgent JUSTENUFFHUMOR looking to make amends makes this race much more competitive than folks probably thought prior to glancing at the past performances.  This seems like a great race to pick the horse(s) that you like the most and take a shot.  It should be a good one.

Selections:

  • #11 Goldikova (8/5*)
  • #8 Zacinto (8/1)
  • #4 Delegator (3/1)

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Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Selections

4 11 2009

These Breeders’ Cup races for 2-year-olds…they’re just so…oh, what’s the word I’m looking for?  JUVENILE!

As we turn our attention to the Grade 1 Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the focus is on babies – babies who in just a few short months might be captivating the world in the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont.  Of course, that’s seldom the case, apart from Street Sense back in 2007, but the possibility is still one that gives the race a sense of mystique that makes it worth watching, even if it doesn’t exactly feature the biggest household names of the sport.  Give them time, and some of these guys are bound to leave their mark.  If nothing else, the sky is the limit – as we’ve doubtless yet to see the best this group has to offer. 

The field sets up as follows:

  1. Alfred Nobel (20/1)
  2. Piscitelli (50/1)
  3. Beethoven (20/1)
  4. Noble’s Promise (8/1)
  5. D’Funnybone (5/2)
  6. Pulsion (20/1)
  7. Vale of York (20/1)
  8. Eskendereya (10/1)
  9. Aikenite (8/1)
  10.  Aspire (30/1)
  11.  Radiohead (15/1)
  12.  William’s Kitten (30/1)
  13.  Lookin At Lucky (8/5*)

Radiohead – what the hell is he doin’ here?  He don’t belong here.

ALFRED NOBEL is the nobly named son of Danehill Dancer being sent to post for acclaimed trainer Aidan O’Brien.  Jockey Johnny Murtagh will once again climb aboard and thus present us with the same connections that we saw aboard Mastercraftsman in the Dirt Mile, and will see again with Rip Van Winkle in the Classic.  He won 3 in a row sprinting back ing Ireland earlier this year, with Murtagh aboard for each victory.  The question would seem to be whether he’ll like the 8 1/2 furlong distance of the Juvenile?  I’m admittedly not familiar with the 2-year-olds he’s faced across the pond, but it would seem this one has a chance at a square price.

PISCITELLI is a horse that I almost dismissed outright based on name alone.  He happens to share names with a much maligned defensive back for the equally much maligned Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFL.  Leaving that aside for a moment, he seems to be a gradually improving type, although he’s had trouble finding the winner’s circle since breaking his maiden. He does at least have some synthetic form to consider, although he was soundly beaten by a few of his rivals last out in the Breeders’ Futurity (Grade 1) last out.  Must continue to improve to score here.

BEETHOVEN tossed me for a bit of a loop when I first saw his name, as we had a horse with the same name among the U.S. 3-year-old crop this year.  Obviously this guy is different, and he could wind up being better.  With Murtagh opting to ride ALFRED NOBEL, Moore will take the mount on this entry for Aidan O’Brien.  He’s a Group 1 winner overseas, having taken the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket (GB) last out.  Like most, must also answer the distance question to prevail.

NOBLE’S PROMISE is a very intriguing son of Cuvee for trainer Ken McPeek, the man who is famously credited with first spotting Curlin.  A winner of 3 straight, he’s climbed steadily from the ranks of maidens to Grade 1 winners.  An old rule of thumb I abide bye is that the best horses make that climb very quickly, and this guy couldn’t have done so any faster.  Add to that his proven synthetic form and the juicy 8/1 morning line odds and I’m ready to make this guy my top pick.  He should be close up in 2nd or 3rd early on and will look to get first jump on the leader(s).

D’FUNNYBONE is the “buzz” horse for trainer Richard Dutrow Jr.  The son of D’Wildcat has won his last two efforts in Grade 2 races back in New York in highly impressive fashion.  The trouble for me is that Dutrow isn’t exactly known for being a top synthetic trainer. If this race were on dirt, I’d have to support him, but having to answer the synthetic question and going the seemingly always unpopular dirt-to-synthetic angle (the red-headed step child of synthetic handicapping angles, for whatever reason) makes me just a tad gun-shy.  Could well be the best horse in the field when all is said and done.

PULSION is an off the pace type who seems to be rounding into form nicely for trainer Patrick Biancone.  It took him 3 tries to break his maiden, and he wound up 2nd in his first try against winners – but that was a Grade 1, so don’t think for a moment he can’t move forward again.  Mike Smith stays aboard for Juvenile.  Could be a sneaky play if he continues to progress.

VALE OF YORK is the Godolphin invader for trainer Saeed bin Suroor.  Like ALFRED NOBEL, I know nothing about hat he’s faced, but this son of Invincible Spirit obviously has some talent under the hood as he’s been competing at the Group 1 and 2 levels lately.  Possibility.

ESKENDEREYA ships in from New York for trainer Todd Pletcher.  The son of Gian’ts Causeway romped to break his maiden at the stakes level in the Pilgrim ($152k) last month – a confident move from his connections considering he had lost in his maiden debut.  He’s been training well enough at Belmont building up for this.  Could be a surprise package if he takes to the Pro Ride.  The trouble for me (and most bettors) is that there simply isn’t a whole lot to go on to suggest that he will beyond gut instinct.  My gut tells me he handles the surface fine. 

AKENITE is a very interesting runner, again for trainer Todd Pletcher.  In fact, he appears to be Pletcher’s “A-horse” for this race, and will retain the services of jockey Alan Garcia – who was lights out this summer at Saratoga.  There’s a lot to like about this son of Yes It’s True.  He’s won on both dirt and synthetics (at Keeneland), which suggests he’ll transition to Santa Anita’s Pro Ride just fine.  Further, he’s won at this distance. I think he’s a very legit player in this race and the 8/1 odds are extremely attractive.

ASPIRE – if ever there was a horse named for this blog to support, it’s this guy.  The son of Tale of the Cat broke his maiden in his debut, and has since run 2nd in the Hopeful, and a close 3rd in the Champagne Stakes.  Two very nice looking colts have beaten him in those last two efforts; Dublin and Homeboykris.  Chalk this guy up as another contender in an extremely deep betting race.

RADIOHEAD - He’s so very special. He’s a creep. He’s a weirdo.  What the hell is he doing here?  He don’t belong here!  (Run Away!!!). All kidding aside, this guy has the coolest name of the field. In case you’re wondering about those first few sentences, they are part of the 90′s classic anthem “Creep” by the band of the same name as this son of Johannesburg.  Focusing on the horse for a moment, we’re looking at yet another apparently live European shipper that has been running competitively at the Group 1 and 2 levels overseas.  He’ll have to overcome the post position and take to the Pro Ride, but he’s yet another possibility.  As an added bonus, since like me you are no doubt handicapping the marathon that is the BC, enjoy the added music of “Creep” by Radiohead as a brief respite in honor of this, the most badassed named horse of the entire Breeders’ Cup.  Take the break – you’ve earned it if you’ve read this far! 

WILLIAM’S KITTEN is a longshot for trainer Michael Maker that appears outmatched on paper.  That being said, Maker is quite the accomplished horsemen, so who am I to question this placement?  Must step up big time to factor.

LOOKIN AT LUCKY is your 8/5 morning line favorite and will line up at the extreme outside post position #13.  Sure, he’s won all 4 of his lifetime starts, and the son of Smart Strike is also perfect over the California plastics, but has he ever had to break from out here in no man’s land?  On the plus side, with nobody to his outside, he’ll probably get a clean break – which is something you always have to worry about any time you line up 14 2-year-olds like this.  It actually might be a blessing rather than a hinderance.  I just can’t take 8/5 from all the way out here in a race this deep.  I think he’s a fine colt, and Bob Baffert has certainly proven he can prepare horses with the best of them, but I’ll be trying to beat him most likely. 

I’m going to use NOBLE’S PROMISE as my top selection here and then use one of the more obvious selections in LOOKIN AT LUCKY directly underneath.  AKENITE, ASPIRE, ESKENDEREYA, D’FUNNYBONE, and RADIOHEAD are all about equal in my next tier, but I really want to size up some of these Europeans with my eyeballs before finalizing things.  For now I’ll go with RADIOHEAD as my third choice, if only because he’s a creep and weirdo.  :)

Selections:

  • #4 Noble’s Promise (8/1)
  • #13 Lookin At Lucky (8/5*)
  • #11 Radiohead (15/1)

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Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Selections

4 11 2009

It’s time for the not-so-aptly named (these past two years at least) Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.  From here on out we’re in Grade 1 territory.  Ten horses have lined up for a race that features another formidable favorite. I highly suspect this might be a race folks will be taking a stand on one way or another in the Pick 6 sequence.  The field sets up like this:

  1. Mastercraftsman (6/5*)
  2. Furthest Land (20/1)
  3. Midshipman (6/1)
  4. Bullsbay (3/1)
  5. Neko Bay (20/1)
  6. Mambo Meister (30/1)
  7. Pyro (10/1)
  8. Mr. Sidney (12/1)
  9. Chocolate Candy (15/1)
  10. Ready’s Echo (20/1)

Johnny Murtagh and Mastercraftsman loom the ones to beat in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

MASTERCRAFTSMAN comes into this race looking mighty tough to defeat.  The only horse to have bested this dude during the 2009 season has been a colt you may have heard of before; Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe champion Sea the Stars – who managed to defeat him 3 times in as many tries.  MASTERCRAFTSMAN never humiliated himself, even against that monster, and in fact ran 2nd to him in the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes at York (GB) back in August.  Even more importantly, he demonstrated his ability to win over synthetics by winning the Group 3 Diamond Stakes at Dundalk (IRE) last out.  A force to be reckoned with.  Beat him if you can.

FURTHEST LAND is a 20/1 longshot son of Smart Strike exiting his best ever performance last out at Turfway Park.  He sports an impressive 2 for 2 record over synthetic racing surfaces, albeit at longer distances.  He could find himself up close early on due to the absence of any standout speed in this race on paper.  Trainer Michael Maker is having a banner season, hitting at nearly 30% or better in each of the categories displayed on his Daily Racing Form running lines.  Intriguing, especially considering his anticipated value.

MIDSHIPMAN is best remembered as the champion of the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  He spent most of the 2009 season on the bench, but returned to defeat optional allowance claiming company at Belmont in September to signal his readiness for the 2009 Breeders’ Cup.  Godolphin Stables has been having a solid 2009 and you have to respect anything that they and trainer Saeed bin Suroor send to post, especially a 3-year-old that still has room for improvement.

BULLSBAY races for my main man, trainer Graham Motion.  The son of Tiznow sports a late closing kick that could be hampered if only a soft pace develops out in front of him.  Still, we’ve seen this guy run gamely against the likes of Rachel Alexandra, so you know he can hang with the best of ‘em.  His last synthetic effort in the Hollywood Gold Cup is the race that most California fans consistently pointed to throughout the year as  proof that horses Zenyatta had beaten (namely Life Is Sweet) had also defeated runners Rachel had beaten, but this guy totally flopped that day finishing 10th out of 13 and was clearly off his usual form.  Way back in 2008 he turned in a better performance finishing 3rd over the “plastics”, which is more along the lines of the type of performance he’d need to prevail here.  You know I’ll be rooting for Graham Motion and Bullsbay, but this one could be tough for BULLSBAY.

NEKO BAY seems to be a fairly consistent son of Giant’s Causeway for trainer John Shirreffs.   Mike Smith will hop aboard to complete the most popular human tandem in all of California racing at the moment, and this horse could make some noise here.  That last allowance race was tougher than it’s designation suggests, and he’s run gamely in both Grade 2 and Grade 3 efforts in the past.  Don’t take this guy too lightly.  He could be the sneak of this field – especially at 20/1.

MAMBO MEISTER is a son of King Cugat making his first synthetic start in the “Dirt” Mile.  Folks might shy away from him quite a bit due to the dreaded “dirt-to-synthetic” angle and the lack of proven Pro Ride form, but I like the fact that he’s won on both turf and dirt – horses that do that usually handle the synthetics just fine.  Whether he has the ability to run a career best coming off that last 100 Beyer figure performance is the bigger question.  One interesting angle to consider: what if this guy were to find himself on the lead?  His effort back in May in the Big Bubble suggests that’s possible. Just something to think about as you look at those 30/1 odds.

PYRO is a horse that folks seem to either love or hate.  Personally, I’ve always liked the guy.  He tries his best in each performance, even if he is something of a “plodder.” It’s interesting that he’s been effective since cutting back to the 7 furlong distance.   Trouble is, he has an attempt at the mile distance here over the Pro Ride, and it was not a performance to remember.  Still, Godolphin seems to have perked this guy back up since getting their hands on him from Steve Asmussen.  This is a horse who once trained alongside the mighty Curlin as that one prepared for the 2008 Dubai World Cup, and he was a Grade 1 winner at Saratoga this year in the Forego.  You could do a lot worse for your money.

MR. SIDNEY is an interesting turf runner (primarily) for trainer Bill Mott that will be giving it a second go on the synthetics here in the BC Mile.  His last effort resulted in a 2nd place finish at the allowance level last October at Keeneland.  It looks like he’s improved since then, having competed in numerous Grade 1 races, including a victory in the Makers Mark back in April.  Mott will obviously be hoping that newfound turf form translates into newfound Pro Ride form, and it’s certainly possible.  He seems to like to sit about 4 lengths back or so in the early going, so it’ll be interesting to see where he shakes out given the perplexing pace scenario here.  Probably needs a great trip from Kent Desormeaux to pull this one off.

CHOCOLATE CANDY is the son of Candy Ride that is owned by the famed Jenny Craig.  A steady diet of synthetic races since his couple of flops in the Derby and Belmont on dirt have resulted in improved performances, if not outright victory.  He’s an even running type that seems to not really have that extra gear that folks become enamored with on the race track, yet he’s a popular horse that seems to always generate a certain amount of buzz.  In his last four races, he’s run into Gitano Hernando, Grazen, Summer Bird, and of course Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby.  I don’t see him winning this race, but he can certainly hit the board.

READY”S ECHO is a rather nondescript (in terms of victories) son of More Than Ready that I best remember as one of trainer Todd Pletcher’s ubiquitous “shots” in the 2008 Belmont.  Since then he’s showed that he can hit the board, but would probably need the race of his life to win here.  Stranger things have happened, but I’m not biting – even though 20/1 is more than fair for a runner capable of 100+ Beyer figures.  One note in his favor – I actually think READY”S ECHO is a better synthetic runner than he ever was a dirt runner.  Just my humble opinion, althouth his 3-1-2-0 record over the stuff seems to support that claim.

I’ll use the obvious choice here in MASTERCRAFTSMAN for the win, as I don’t see anyone that instills confidence in me from an upset perspective.  Underneath I’m toying with playing some shots in both MAMBO MEISTER and NEKO BAY.  I’ll probably have to use my boy BULLSBAY here as well, and I’m sure my wife will talk me into using PYRO as well (she’s already mentioned “I saw Pyro is running!” excitedly….you know how that goes – now I can’t possibly let him beat me).  I think MIDSHIPMAN deserves a chance here as well, for like I said earlier, we still may have yet to see the best from this guy. 

Selections:

  • #1 Mastercraftsman (6/5*)
  • #6 Mambo Meister (30/1)
  • #5 Neko Bay (20/1)

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Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint Selections

4 11 2009

Time is getting short.  At the beginning of the week it seemed like there was ample time to compile selections, but as the days of the week tick bye, it’s starting to feel like crunch time.  I’m scheduled to fly out to California for the Breeders’ Cup tomorrow, so the feeling is even more urgent for yours truly to get all the initial picks and analysis covered – if only that I may look like a complete fool in retrospect by the end of the weekend.  Such is the life of an aspiring horseplayer, I suppose.

The field for the $1,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint sets up like this:

  1. Noble Court (8/1)
  2. Silver Timber (8/1)
  3. California Flag (7/2*)
  4. Lord Shanakill (8/1)
  5. Get Funky (20/1)
  6. Cannonball (8/1)
  7. Gotta Have Her (15/1)
  8. Square Eddie (20/1)
  9. Diamondrella (4/1)
  10.  Canadian Ballet (20/1)
  11.  El Gato Malo (30/1)
  12.  Strike the Deal (15/1)
  13.  Desert Code (20/1)
  14.  Delta Storm (10/1)
  15.  AE – Tenga Cat (30/1)
  16. AE – Cherokee Heaven (30/1)

Good lord.  Sixteen possible contenders to handicap?  Seems like it would stand to reason that we might have a great betting race before us.  I’ll temper that expectation a bit from the start that by pointing out the obvious – we’ve got a very live favorite here who might get an extremely favorable pace setup alone on the lead.  Let’s keep this simple and run down the field horse by horse and see what we can discern, shall we?

NOBLE COURT is a son of Doneralie Court that appears to like to come from off the pace. He’s 1 for 1 over the track and distance for trainer John Sadler, who happens to be hitting  at a 22% clip for the meet.  They like to give him some time between starts, and he hasn’t been seen since a very good 2nd place finish to the mighty Zensational (whom we will see later on in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint).  Overall he’s a Grade 3 winner who would appear to have a good shot to wind up in the money, although it will take his best to prevail.

SILVER TIMBER is a very interesting runner that has won 4 of his last 5 starts for trainer Chad Brown, racing mostly on the east coast but also most recently at Keeneland.  One of the angles I like to see from an out of town contender is proven ability to win at multiple locations, and the son of Prime Timber has done that recently in finding his way to the winner’s circle at Keeneland, Belmont, and Gulf Stream Park this year.  One gets the feeling this guy is rounding (or perhaps has rounded) into his top form now at 6-years-old.  He certainly seems a better horse than he was last year, which is saying something considering he ran for one of the better turf sprint trainers in the nation back then in Linda Rice. 

CALIFORNIA FLAG is the local hero and winner of the Morvich Handicap (Grade 3) last out, a win which ran his recent record to an impressive 5 victories in his last 6 starts.  He’s a burner for sure, perhaps best indicated by the mind blowing :20 & 3 he he ran out of the gate in last year’s BC Turf Sprint – a race that saw him fade badly to 10th at the wire, as might be expected given such a lightning start.  Since then he’s been very smart – and quite deadly in California, having won at Hollywood Park, Del Mar, and Santa Anita this year.  If he gets loose on the lead again, which he very well could, watch out.

LORD SHANAKILL looks like one of the sneakier options in this race.  He’s a 3-year-old son of Speightstown, so you know he was born to sprint.  He’s one of the somewhat mystical (to American bettors) European horses, and obviously they are strongly considered on grass.  His form isn’t eye popping enough that he’ll get hammered at the windows, but he has run respectably against Mastercraftsman (potential favorite for the BC Mile).  Can’t really say the same for his effort against Sea the Stars though.  Interesting possible x-factor here to size up as much as you can in the post parade.

GET FUNKY is a hard knocker that always seems to be hitting the board for minor awards.  The son of Straight Man (interesting contrast to this one’s name) has seemed to improve though this summer, and seems to prefer this shorter distance.  He just missed by a length against CALIFORNIA FLAG in the Morvich and could be one to benefit should the favorite be softened up at all in the pace setup.

CANNONBALL is another who seems to be slowly improving just in time for this effort.  The son of Catienus finished 2nd in his final Group One effort this summer at Ascot in the Golden Jubilee Stakes.  He followed that up with a victory in a NY state bred stakes for $74k at Saratoga in September that only drew a 6 horse field. I see some things to like in this guy, although obviously the stakes (pardon the pun) get higher here.

GOTTA HAVE HER is another sneaky looking type, this time for trainer Jenine Sahadi.  The daughter of Royal Academy has won back to back races, and just missed to Magical Fantasy (who we will see in the BC Filly & Mare Turf on Friday) in the Grade 1 John C. Mabee at Del Mar.  Sahadi is hitting at 31% with last out winners, and jockey Tyler Baze has been having a stellar meet winning at a 23% clip.  Toss in a perfect 4 for 4 record at the distance and an impressive 9-5-1-2 record at Santa Anita and I think this is a mare you’re going to have to use in some fashion – especially at 15/1. 

SQUARE EDDIE looks like an outsider here. It pains me to say that as the once proclaimed “baby Curlin” is a horse I’ve always wanted to see accomplish great things.  He just hasn’t looked quite the same this year.  His running motion concerns me a bit, although I’m by no means an expert on such things.  On the positive side, his human connections are strong with trainer Doug O’Niell and of course Dettori taking the mount.  I’d love to see him get it done – I just don’t think it’s in the cards.

DIAMONDRELLA is nothing if not a model of consistency.  We’re talking about a horse who has won 7 of 9 races since joining the barn of Richard Dutrow, including a pair of Grade 1′s (the Justa Game at Belmont and the First Lady at Keeneland).  One of those 2 losses was by a head, and the other was to Informed Decision, who has a big shot to win the BC Sprint later in the card.  I really like this horse. My only concerns are a lack of recent published works at Santa Anita, and the fact that she’s never been over the course.  Of the ladies lined up to battle the boys in this race, I think she makes the most sense.  If you’re looking to play against the favorite, this would be my top pick as “best of the rest.”  

CANADIAN BALLET is a 4-year-old filly running out of the Linda Rice barn.  If you know me, then you know turf sprints aren’t my cup of tea.  This means that Linda Rice is, without question, my equine related soul mate – as we are polar opposites. You’d be hard pressed to find a finer trainer for such affairs, and while I like this daughter of City Zip, I’m just not sure that she can go with CALIFORNIA FLAG.  All of her wins have been wire-to-wire, which means to prevail, she’ll need to do something new. Hmmmmm. Very nice filly, I’m just going to lean elsewhere.

EL GATO MALO – man, I remember when this guy was one of my favorite 3-year-olds on the California circuit last year.  Obviously he’s a year longer in the tooth.  Trouble is though, he’s just never really put it all together.  On his absolute best I see him as fighting for a minor award here.  In all fairness though, a look down the list of horses to have beaten him recently is fairly impressive. Yes, that last race was only an Allowance level one, but Neko Bay, Mast Track, and Becrux is pretty darn salty for such a race. 

STRIKE THE DEAL is the last of the types I’d classify as “sneaky” (15/1 still qualifies as “sneaky”, doesn’t it?).  A winner of back to back starts in the U.K., the 4-year-old son of Van Nistelrooy retains the services of jockey Kieran Fallon for the Turf Sprint.  I’m not as familiar with some of the competition he’s faced, so like the other “sneaky” plays, he’s a bit of an x-factor, but certainly seems capable.  He seems to have overcome some trouble in each of the last victories, and his lines suggest he might be moving well late.  I’d like to see this guy with my own eyes first before finalizing my opinion.

DESERT CODE is a bit on an enigma.  You almost feel surprised when you think back and remember that he won this race last year.  At first glance you see his recent form and you think “no way.”  But look closely – especially at how he came into this race last year.  Would you believe that in his final prep for the 2008 BC Turf he also finished 7th to California Flag?  Hmmm. The more things change, the more they stay the same.  He’s not one of my top picks, but would anyone really be that surprised if he somehow did it again?  Respect this guy more than his recent form or the action on the tote board might otherwise suggest.  I mean c’mon – do you want to let last year’s victor beat you at 20/1?  I didn’t think so.  He’s as worth a $2 flyer as any horse I’ve handicapped thus far for that reason alone.

DELTA STORM is a Mike Mitchell trainee who has put up speed figures that clearly make him a contender.  He’ll get a pace to run at, but must overcome breaking from the 14 hole.  I think he’s a prime candidate to hit the board – “if” he can get a decent trip.  Joel Rosario will be in the irons attempting to make that happen.  Remember earlier in the year when folks were avoiding Rosario on the grass?  How sweet would it be if he picked up a BC turf race?  Just something to ponder.

As if all of this weren’t enough, there’s two horses on the also eligible list that might draw into the field. Of the two, TENGA CAT seems to be more of a pace pressing type, while CHEROKEE HEAVEN seems to like coming from off the pace – which I’d prefer given the lightning speed in this race casually referred to as CALIFORNIA FLAG.

I like the looks of both CALIFORNIA FLAG and DIAMONDRELLA here.  Obviously CALIFORNIA FLAG has a lot going for him and is worthy of top selection, but DIAMONDRELLA offers slightly better value.  Underneath on the exotics, I’d like to work in DESERT CODE, CANNONBALL, and GOTTA HAVE HER, along with possibly LORD SHANAKILL.

Selections:

  • #3 California Flag (7/2*)
  • #9 Diamondrella (4/1)
  • #13 Desert Code (20/1)

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The Stars Attempt to Shine

2 10 2009

This weekend kicks off an action packed, star studded 48 hours of thoroughbred racing action, capped off by the running of the world’s premier turf race, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp.  If the weather holds up well enough, European phenom SEA THE STARS is set to go to post as the heavy Arc favorite.  Not to be entirely outdone, the U.S. has it’s own prestigious races to offer to the gods of weekend racing as the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup highlights a remarkable Saturday card at Belmont Park.

(NOTE: If interested, you can read my latest thoughts on the weekend races with Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic implications – namely the Beldame, the Fitz Dixon Cotillion, and the Cal Cup Classic in my most recent offering on the NTRA website.)

 

  

10/4 – Longchamp (France) – Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe

We’ll do things backwards here from a chronological perspective as obviously the Arc is the big story this weekend and rightfully deserves the most attention.  Roughly $5.84 million in purse money is on the line when the horses go to post this Sunday.  Epsom Derby winner SEA THE STARS has drawn comparisons to some of the all time greats while running up an impressive list of 5 consecutive Group One victories.  Trainer John Oxx has referred to him lovingly as “the horse of a lifetime.” 

The Irish colt’s dam, Urban Sea, was crowned Arc champion in 1993, meaning he’s got it in his genes beyond the obvious visual talent we’ve seen on display thus far.  The only concern might be mother nature, as he may be a bit vulnerable if rain enters the forecast.  For the moment at least, that does not appear to be the case. 

Lining up against SEA THE STARS is a salty group of accomplished runners, including CONDUIT, the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Turf champion.  YOUMZAIN will also be looking to make some noise and has shown an ability to hit the board in the Arc before.  Two ladies that I’ll be paying extra attention to are STACELITA and DAR RE MI, as at the moment there is still hope for enticing either of them to ship west for the Breeders’ Cup on November 6 & 7. 

I think this one goes to the favorite, as I can’t see SEA THE STARS being denied in the stretch.  He’s had a hard campaign, but if he’s half the horse that our friends from across the pond say he is (and they tend to know a thing or two about horses and their capabilities), than he should deliver the goods on Sunday.  I’ll probably play CONDUIT and YOUMZAIN underneath along with the two fillies (STACELITA and DAR RE MI).  FAME AND GLORY and CAVALRYMAN are two other horses I’d consider working into my plays, although I’m not fond of the latter’s post position draw (19).

 

10/3 – Belmont Park – Race 7 – The Grade 1 Vosburgh (6 Furlongs)

Moving both backwards in time and to the more familiar surroundings of Belmont Park, we’re confronted with the  70th running of the Vosburgh.  Only 5 horses are entered for this race, but it still has a bit of intrigue based on the horses that will (should) compete. 

MUNNINGS enters as the 3-year-old taking on older males for the first time, and you might think he’d have things easy here against a small field.  Not so fast, my friends.  While the son of champion sprinter Speightstown has chased admirably behind the phenom that is Rachel Alexandra, he’s managed to draw quite a dynamic duo with both KODIAK KOWBOY and FABULOUS STRIKE in his first race against older runners.  

I could see FABULOUS STRIKE getting a perfect trip here and making it look academic in the stretch.  KODIAK KOWBOY and MUNNINGS are talented enough to make it competitive, but would be a bit of a surprise if they managed to stage the upset.  GO GO SHOOT should be pace factor and thus has a shot of hanging on in the exacta. 

Selections: 5/ 1, 4/ 1, 3, 4

 

10/3 – Belmont Park – Race 8 – The Grade 1 Flower Bell (1 1/4 Miles – Turf)

We head to the turf for the 32nd running of the Flower Bell.  Seven horses will compete here in what is a deceptively competitive race.  First, there’s DYNAFORCE.  I don’t know what it is about this girl, but whenever I’ve played her in the past she’s burned me.  Last time out in the Beverly D, I jumped ship and went with PURE CLAN.  You don’t even have to look at the past performances to guess what happened. 

DYNAFORCE and PURE CLAN will get another crack at one another on Saturday, and will also run into a pair of runners for trainer Christophe Clement that includes Carribean Sunset.  The daughter of Danheill Dancer could be rounding into form at the right time, but must also answer questions about whether she wants go 10 furlongs. 

A horse that might be overlooked at the windows is MONEYCANTBUYMELOVE.  Leave alone for a second the awesomeness of a horse with a Beatles themed name (especially with the release of The Beatles: Rock Band last month) and instead focus on her running lines.  This seems to be a runner who gives a solid effort each time out, and note that she chased Rainbow View gamely.   We know she likes the distance, so the only question will be whether she’s shipped well enough.  Without the benefit of a recent workout over the track to offer a clue, you’ll have to check her out in the post parade to attempt to make that final assessment.

For now I’ll roll the dice with MONEYCANTBUYMELOVE for the win.  Underneath I’ll add in DYNAFORCE and PURE CLAN, with CARRIBEAN SUNSET added to the bottom of the trifecta. 

Selections: 7/ 3, 4/ 1, 3, 4

 

10/3 – Belmont – Race 9 – The Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (1 1/2 Miles – Turf)

The 33rd running of the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic presents an opportunity for GIO PONTI, the dark horse longshot for Horse of the Year honors, to continue his fine winning streak that currently stands at 4 consecutive Grade 1 turf races going back to the Frank Kilroe Handicap in March.  He’ll run into a field of 7 other contenders including the upset winner of the Sword Dancer – TELLING. 

The buzz right now is that GIO PONTI is likely pointing to the Breeders’ Cup Classic rather than the Breeders’ Cup Turf.  If true, I’ve got to wonder why his connections are running here rather than opting for a prep like the Goodwood at Santa Anita next week?  Gio does own a victory over the Santa Anita Pro Ride back in December, but that was at the Grade 3 level against the likes of Medjool and El Gato Malo and not the level of class  he’d run into in the Classic.

Presious Passion will definitely be a part of the pace scenario – that much you can take to the bank with you.  The question, as always, will be whether he can slow it down enough to wire the field, or if he’ll run himself into a brick wall like what happened in his Arlington Million effort?  The distance seems to suit him fine – but he may not be as fond of the Belmont turf as he is, say Monmouth.

TELLING stole more form me than even I myself realized in the Sword Dancer, and I’m not sure I’ll ever forgive him.  That race wound up being the final in the career of Better Talk Now, and but for Telling, my beloved Blackie would’ve gone out a winner as he deserved.  I try not to hold grudges – especially not against a horse, but I can’t shake that last bit from my memory. 

I’ll play GIO PONTI for the win, figuring the model of consistency will continue to plug away and do what he always does – win the race.  I think TELLING could hit the board again here as well and will box him along with PRESIOUS PASSION and GRAND COUTURIER on the bottom of my tickets.  If he looks good on the track, I might also work MUSKETIER into the bottom of the equation, as he did run 2nd to GIO PONTI in the Man O’ War.

Selections: 1/ 4, 7, 8/ 4, 7, 8

 

10/3 – Belmont Park – Race 10 – The Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup – 1 1/4 Miles

 The feature race of Belmont’s sensational Saturday card is the 91st running of the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup.  It always brings me great pleasure to cover a race that my boy Curlin won – not once, but twice!  This year another horse that I’ve got some mojo with comes into the race with strong support; SUMMER BIRD.  The beautiful chestnut son of Bidstone has bookend Grade 1 victories in the Belmont and the Travers buttressing a 2nd place finish to Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell.  He absolutely destroyed QUALITY ROAD in the stretch through the slop at Saratoga to take the Travers.  This will be his first start against older horses, but trainer Tim Ice has believed since well before the Belmont that his colt was something special.

MACHO AGAIN will rightly take quite a bit of consideration here coming off a defeat by only a head in Rachel Alexandra’s historic Woodward victory.  We all know how this angle works; horses who have run competitively against Rachel Alexandra are virtual locks the next time they step onto the track.  Given that he holds the age advantage over SUMMER BIRD and QUALITY ROAD, and is as battle tested a Grade 1 older dirt horse as we have in the nation at the moment, MACHO AGAIN would seem to be the one to beat.  I’m just not sure he gets 10 furlongs as well as he usually gets 9.

Instead, I’ve got to stick with my man Tim Ice here and Summer Bird.  Either way, Rachel stands to have yet another feather placed in her cap when a horse she’s defeated adds the Jockey Club Gold Cup to their belt.  QUALITY ROAD is the x-factor here and could either run a huge race or prove to be better suited to shorter distances.  After all the unfulfilled hype surrounding this horse heading into the Travers, I’m going to make him beat me rather than support him.  I think he can hit the board though and would definitely include him underneath in the exotics. 

TIZWAY and ASIATIC BOY shoud also be considered for underneath play in the exotic wagers.  I’m not much of an ASIATIC BOY fan, but he has run respectable at this distance and has a tendency to wind up in the money.  TIZWAY could be interesting at a price considering he appears on paper to be a pace contender – plus you know I never like to discount the possibilities of Tiznow’s offspring. 

Selections: 3/ 2, 4, 7/ 2, 4. 5. 7

 

Best of luck to all!

We’ll be back next weekend for a look at the Lady’s Secret (featuring Zenyatta and Life is Sweet) from Santa Anita as well as the Spinster (featuring Icon Project) from Keeneland as we continue to countdown to the Breeders’ Cup Championships.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Better Talk Now, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Presious Passion, Quality Road, sea the stars, Summer Bird

Horse of the Year; the case for Rachel Alexandra

6 09 2009

 

Rachel Alexandra - Photo by Jim McCue of the Maryland Jockey Club

Rachel Alexandra - Photo by Jim McCue of the Maryland Jockey Club

I’ve posted this on Twitter, placed it in recent articles, and feel very strongly about the matter.  Following Rachel Alexandra’s victory against older males in the Woodward on Saturday at Saratoga, the race for Horse of the Year would appear to be over.  I realize that might be a bold statement considering there are several huge races left to be run this year.  I can’t see how anyone else’s campaign could possibly top what we’ve seen unfold before our eyes.  The filly who was once rejected by her mother (Lotta Kim) has reached the top of the mountain as the finest horse in racing in all of North America.

This isn’t just a Horse of the Year campaign, it’s a campaign for all times.  Arguably the start to a Hall of Fame career.  Every time she runs, decades worth of history come crashing down like so many dominoes.  She lays waste to the competition, conquers every track she encounters, and can lay claim to achieving truly unprecedented results.

“…any talk of another horse being worthy of Horse of the Year honors is patently absurd.”

Interestingly, I actually believe that if the Zenyatta camp had travelled east to face Rachel in the Woodward, they would’ve had a very big shot to prevail.  Especially considering how the pace setup ultimately played out.  The closers (Bullsbay and Macho Again) were rolling late with every chance to catch Rachel.  You’d have to think Zenyatta would’ve been coming gamely in the stretch.  We must also factor in that Zenyatta would’ve been returning to dirt in a relatively fresh condition.

I just don’t see what Zenyatta can do now to surpass what Rachel has done this year?  There would’ve been an opportunity to keep pace by moving up the class ladder and taking on older males in the Pacific Classic, but that didn’t happen.  We KNOW that Rachel is the dominant horse of the U.S. east of the Mississippi.  Zenyatta?  Well, the picture’s a little cloudy for her.  She’s a champion and undefeated mare who deserves a great deal of respect, that much is certain.  

Don’t you have to feel though that the older male division in California has been somewhat ripe for the taking?  I thought Zenyatta would’ve made a lot of sense as a logical contender in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.  Sadly, we’ve never had the chance to find out.  Hopefully that changes in the future, but even so it might be a case of too little too late.

Even if Zenyatta manages to win the Classic, and let’s assume for a moment that she does win in electrifying fashion against top flight competition, would that be enough to leapfrog everything Rachel has accomplished already?  Not in my mind.  Of course, this doesn’t even factor in that Zenyatta might run into a horse like Sea the Stars in the Classic.  As much respect as I have for her, the 2009 campaign so far does not stack up favorably against the accomplishments of Rachel.

Too strong an opinion?  Perhaps, but let’s review that list of accomplishments for Rachel:

Historical notes:
-First filly in 8 decades to win the Preakness
-2nd filly in 42 years to win the Haskell
-first filly EVER to defeat older males in the Woodward

Runners who have flattered Rachel with NEXT OUT Stakes wins:
-Just Jenda ( G3 Monmouth Oaks)
-Sarah Louise (G3 Victory Ride)
-Gabby’s Golden Gal (G1 Acorn)
-Take the Points (G2 Secretariat)
-Flashing (G1 Test)
-Summer Bird (G1 Travers)

Misc:
-5 CONSECUTIVE Grade 1 wins (Ky Oaks, Preakness, Mother Goose, Haskell, Woodward).

-Joins elite company becoming one of the few 3-year-old fillies in history to defeat Grade 1 older males over a mile or more.

-Faced males in 3 of those 5 Grade 1 races, won ‘em all.

-Perfect 8 for 8 record in 2009, all stakes races.

-Has defeated the winners of the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, Travers Stakes, Whitney Handicap, Stephen Foster – all while winning the Kentucky Oaks, Preakness, Mother Goose, Haskell, and Woodward for herself…and that’s just the last 5 races going back to May.

(read that point above one more time)

-For any other horse (colt or filly) defeating the Kentucky Derby winner would’ve been the centerpiece of their 3-year-old campaign.  For Rachel it’s just one of many such moments, and arguably not the biggest or the most memorable.  Think about that.  That’s really saying something.  Just to help you remember how special that moment and the buildup to that historic ride was, take a little walk down memory lane once again:

 

 

-Has won Grade 1 races this year at 5 different tracks: Churchill Downs (KY Oaks), Pimlico (Preakness), Belmont Park (Mother Goose), Monmouth Park (Haskell), and Saratoga (Woodward). 

-There were 3 more stakes victories starting the campaign in early 2009.  Take note of this as it’s the first point in the discussion that Zenyatta’s ’09 campaign draws even by comparison.  It’s the basement of Rachel’s accomplishments but currently the ceiling of those Zenyatta has earned thus far in 2009.  I think that last sentence bears some reflection.

The thought that all of the above happened in the 3-year-old campaign of a single filly is so unbelievably spectacular that I’m not sure even Horse of the Year renders it full justice.  Remember that after all this, she’s still not even a mare yet!  It boggles the mind to think of how she might develop if given proper rest to prepare for a 4-year-old campaign.

“…any talk of another horse being worthy of Horse of the Year honors is patently absurd.”

Well, maybe that is a little harsh, but it’s hard to argue with the list of accolades listed above. 

Any argument favoring someone else for Horse of the Year is bound to contain speculation about what might happen in the future, or is based on memories from the previous year.  In contrast, Rachel’s case is built on events that have actually happened this year.  There’s no might or if about them.  She’s earned it all on the track.

What say you?


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Categories : Belmont Park, Churchill Downs, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Monmouth Park, Pimlico, Rachel Alexandra, Saratoga, Z Humor, Zenyatta

Rachel Alexandra makes history; defeats older males in the Woodward

5 09 2009

“A horse, a horse! My kingdom for a horse!”

She did it!!!

Rachel Alexandra defeated a field of 7 older males to take the Grade 1 Woodward at Saratoga on Saturday afternoon, virtually locking up Horse of the Year honors with yet another history defying stretch run.  It may not have been by double digit lengths this time, as had been her trademark against fellow 3-year-old boys and girls, but at the end of the day it may have been her most impressive performance yet.

 

 

As anticipated, the pace setup for the race was extremely challenging for the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro.  She found herself on the lead being forced to set punishing fractions of :22 and :46 through the opening splits.  As the field turned for home, it appeared that the great filly might have bitten off more than she could chew.  Macho Again and Bullsbay had taken aim and were unwinding as the field raced to the wire.

Flash back to the moment immediately after her victory in the Haskell.  Jockey Calvin Borel indicated that he “didn’t know how great Rachel was” because we had yet to see how she would respond when another horse looked her in the eye in the stretch.  Well friends, we got about as close to that on Saturday as we’re likely ever going to see.

As Macho Again looked poised to surge past her for the score, Borel suddenly found more. Like the courageous champion she is, her ears perked and her eyes ablaze, horse and rider determined that history would not be plucked from their grasp within sight of the wire.  Somehow, someway, she dug down and found more.

What followed was a moment for all time.  The 3-year-old filly crossing the wire in a Grade 1 “distance” race against older boys.  Clearly, she must’ve read my “win one for the Vintner” post before heading to the paddock.  I tried to warn the boys what they were in for, even going Shakespeare on them get their attention, but they must not have listened.

She has now blazed a trail through history not once, not twice, but THRICE in momentous races.  The Preakness, the Haskell, and now the Woodward.  I said this over twitter immediately following the race and I think it bears repeating.  “Any discussion of another horse deserving Horse of the Year honors is now patently absurd.”

Not to take anything away from other runners, but the accolades for Rachel are simply off the charts now.  It’s beyond my comprehension how anyone could even make a case for another horse as Horse of the Year?  I suspect such sentiments would be fueled by disdain for her connections, or blind love for another horse.  I understand those feelings quite well – it’s just that they’re flat out wrong in my opinion.

True, the Breeders’ Cup “championship” awaits, but I can’t imagine any single race being able to stack up to what this horse has done on the track throughout the year. 

What we’ve just witnessed was a unique moment in history that we might not be lucky enough to live to see again. Yes – it was that special. Just like her victories in the Preakness and the Haskell.  There’s a reason these types of races don’t happen every year.  Rachel is an absolute one-of-a-kind freakazoid of nature. 

So what lies next for her majesty? Owner Jess Jackson has hinted at shutting her down for the rest of the year, presumably so he can bring her back fresh for her 4-year-old campaign.  My guess is that after a grueling victory like this, where she had to lay it all on the line to prove her greatness, she’s likely had enough – at least for now. 

I keep thinking they’ll send her to Dubai next year to race in the World Cup, once again following the path that Curlin blazed for the Jackson/Asmussen camp in ’07 and ’08. It’s important to keep in mind though that Dubai is switching to a synthetic surface.  We all know how Jess Jackson feels about them.

The victory makes her a perfect 8 or 8 in 2009, including 5 consecutive Grade 1 victories stretching back to the Kentucky Oaks, which ironically was the race that first brought her to the forefront of the sport’s consciousness.  Additionally, she’s now boosted her lifetime earnings to just under $3 million ($2,948,354).

Of course, the possibility of a matchup with Zenyatta in the Beldame courtesy of TVG-Betfair is still out there.  I just don’t see it happening as it doesn’t seem like either camp is particularly interested.  The Breeders’ Cup is still out there as well, but Jackson has been adamant that he wants no part of the “plastic Classic.”

Ironically, Rachel wasn’t the only horse stringing together her 5th amazing victory against top level competition.  European sensation Sea the Stars was equally impressive taking the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown.  The victory left racing fans from across the pond speechless searching for races to compare with the performance.  The Arc most likely awaits Sea the Stars next, but his connections also have designs on the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

 

 

Not a bad Saturday, eh?  We just saw the two most magnificent specimens in all of horse racing the world over turn in monster performances.  Up next we’ve got Colonel John on Sunday at Del Mar.


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Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra, Saratoga, sea the stars

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