Toyota Blue Grass a solid betting race

10 04 2009

Saturday’s 85th running of the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland may not have the star appeal of the other Grade 1 preps along the Derby trail, but it might be one of the more appealing betting races of the season.   Value, particularly underneath in the exotics, will likely abound as the race has drawn 10 relatively evenely matched competitors. 

  1. Patena (R. Albarado Jr./ R. Dutrow Jr.) 10/1
  2. Join in the Dance (J. Velazquez / T. Pletcher) 10/1
  3. Theregoesjojo (C. Borel/ K. McPeek) 7/2
  4. Cliffy’s Future (J. L. Castanon/ D. Miller) 20/1
  5. Mafaaz (R. Hills/ J. Gosden) 12/1
  6. Terrain (J. Leparoux/ A. Stall Jr.) 6/1
  7. Loch Dubh (H. J. Thierot II/ J. Talley) 50/1
  8. General Quarters (E. Coa/ T. McCarthy) 15/1
  9. Charitable Man (A. Garcia/ K. McLaughlin) 4/1
  10.  Hold Me Back (K. Desormeaux/ W. Mott) 3/1*
  11.  Massone (G. Gomez/ R. McAnally) 12/1

Morning line favoritism has been awarded to Hold Me Back, largely based on his most recent victory in the Grade 2 Lane’s End on March 21 at Turfway Park.   The son of Giant’s Causeway perked up that day and displayed an apparent affinity for a synthetic surface.  Importantly, he also has shown he can win here at Keeneland, having done so against conditional allowance runners last October (including today’s rival Cliffy’s Future).   He also prevailed in a move I seldom play;  dirt to synthetic.  If you toss his 5th place finish on the dirt against Old Fashioned in the Remsen, he’s 3 for his remaining 3.   It’s interesting to note in his workout lines that he gest credit for a bullet over the dirt at Payson Park going 5 furlongs in 1:02.2, yet only ranks 15th out of 35 for his workout going the same two full seconds faster at Keeneland on Sunday.  He’s got the looks of a worthy favorite, but he doesn’t tower over the field.

Theregoesjojo is the second choice on the morning line at 7/2.  This guy looks like one of the best horses in this race, but once again I’m hesitant to support a dirt runner trying the artificial footing for the first time.    To his credit, he has defeated Quality Road, and ran respectably against both he and Dunkirk in the Florida Derby.  HIs trainer, Ken McPeek, is hitting at an even 20% clip over synthetic surfaces.  I’ve got mixed feelings about this guy in this spot.  I suspect he’ll run a good race, but I don’t think I can support him for the win.

Charitable Man is the horse that offers the most intrigue.  For starters, he’s a Lemon Drop, which I always enjoy playing.   You know he’ll be able to handle the distance, and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has been giving this guy some solid works in preparation for his 2009 debut.   While he is going from dirt to synthetics like Theregoesjojo, I like his turf pedigree a bit more and would expect him to handle the surfact switch more confidently.  While he has yet to race this year, somebody in his camp has decided this colt hast the goods for the Kentucky Derby, as he’s among those who paid the early nomination fee for the first Saturday in May.   It’s worth noting that he beat two talented horses in the Futurity last year, both Friesan Fire and Flying Pegasus.  As Handride pointed out to me on Facebook earlier today, he evidently has his own blog.  You get the feeling this is the class of the field right here, and if he’s cranked up and ready to go – watch out!

European invader Mafaaz has already earned a birth in the Kentucky Derby.   In that way, much like Street Sense in 2007, he’s really here as a final tune up while his connections make the final determination about their chances  next month.  He looks to be in great form, and the only loss of his career was to Donativum, who went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall at Santa Anita.   He’s accomplished on both turf and synthetics, and will likely offer solid value on the board since many players will shy away from him due to unfamiliarity.   My advice?  Don’t ignore this guy.  I don’t think they would have shipped here if they didn’t truly believe they might have something.   Of course, as with most of the horses here, you really need to get a look at them in the post parade before you can make a final assessment.   That goes doubly true for Mafaaz since he doesn’t have a posted workout over the local service to give us any other indication on how he’s shipped. 

Terrain is a runner who looks capable of moving forward by virtue of essentially dropping in class.   He ran into Friesan Fire and Papa Clem in the Louisiana Derby, and prior to that was favored against Big Drama and West Side Bernie in the Delta Jackpot.  That was really his worst effort after rather uncharectersitically flashing early speed.   He’s actually finished ahead of Pioneer of the Nile, who is currently 4th in the public voting on our Kentucky Derby poll, in both the Breeder’s Futurity and the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.  That’s really one of the most powerful angles you can find from a handicapping perspective in this entire race. 

I’m going to play the Lemon Drop like I usually do and go with Charitable Man for the win.   I’ll use Mafaaz, Terrain, and Hold Me Back underneath in place.  Add in General Quarters  and Theregoesjojo for show,  with Patena and Join in the Dance on the bottom of the Superfecta.  

Selections:

  • $20 Win #9 Charitable Man
  • $.10 Superfecta:  9/5,6,10/ 3,5,6,8,10/ 1,2,3,5,6,8,10 ($6.00)

The Toyota Blue Grass will be featured on TVG and again on tape delay on ESPN2 on Saturday.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Keeneland, Kentucky Derby Trail

Louisiana Derby the key to many questions

13 03 2009

Saturday’s 96th running of the Louisiana Derby (Grade 2) at Fair Grounds is arguably the strongest betting race of the 4 major Kentucky Derby prep races of the day (including the San Felipe, the Tampa Bay Derby, and the Rebel).  That’s due to the fact that several highly touted horses have entered in what appears to be an extremely competitive race.  When all is said and done we should be able to answer several burning questions, including whether Friesan Fire, Patena, and Flying Pegasus are the real deal(s), and whether Papa Clem can follow in the footsteps of I Want Revenge, who came east from California last week to win the Gotham at Aqueduct. 

Past performances available here

  1. Free Country (K. Desormeaux/ K. McPeek) 12/1
  2. Soul Warrior (S. Bridgmohan/ S. Asmussen) 20/1
  3. Patena (R. Albarado/ R. Dutrow) 7/2
  4. Terrain (J. Leparoux/ A. Stall Jr.) 10/1
  5. Flying Pegasus (J. Velazquez/ R. Nicks) 8/1
  6. Giant Oak (J. Graham/ C. Block) 4/1
  7. Uno Mas (B.J. Hernandez Jr./ S. Asmussen) 12/1
  8. Papa Clem (R. Bejarano/ G. Stute) 8/1
  9. Friesan Fire (G. Saez/ L. Jones) 5/2*
  10. Nowhere to Hide (C. Lanerie/ N. Zito) 15/1

Friesan Fire is your morning line favorite at 5/2.  He’s a guy who doesn’t get a lot of respect, yet quietly sits within most Derby lists in one of the top 5 slots.  Larry Jones is as solid a trainer as there is when it comes to getting 3-year-olds ready for the big time.  When teamed with jockey Gabriel Saez they create a human connection battery that is extremely formidable.  The son of A.P. Indy really turned it up a notch in his most recent workout, a bullet of 5 furlongs in :58 and change on March 9.   He’s exiting back to back wins in Grade 3 races; the LeComte and the Risen Star.  Jones seems to be bringing him along splendidly, and it’s encouraging to note how he took the added 1/16 of a mile in the Risen Star last out.   He’s obviously the one you’ve got to beat.

Patena is a horse that has to live up to his hype.  It’s now or never for this guy.  Quietly, despite the presence of Stardom Bound, this colt has been IEAH Stables prime Kentucky Derby contender in the minds of many.  We’ll see if he’s worth it on Saturday.  An encouraging note for handicappers to play on is that his last victory was over Hooh Why, who went on to run well against Stardom Bound in the Santa Anita Oaks.   Yes, that was a filly, but evidently a decent one (especially on synthetics).   He ran well chasing Friesan Fire in the LeComte last out, and that was at a weight disadvantage that he won’t have to face today.  Hopefully we’ll be able to tell a lot about this guy in the post parade.  Dutrow has been training him up for this and if he lives up to the hype he might rocket up the Derby rankings.

Flying Pegasus overcame a wide post in the Risen Star to run well behind Friesan Fire for 2nd.  I get the feeling this son of Fusaichi Pegasus is starting to put it all together and I would not be surprised to see him both improve and threaten for the victory.   Trouble is, he’s running into a deeper field than last time out, so he’ll have to improve.  I could go either way with this guy. 

Papa Clem is the sneaky horse of this field.  If you’re feeling a bit of deja vu, it’s because we’ve seen this story before: a horse who ran big against Pioneer of the Nile comes east, brings their jockey with them, and tries to go synthetic-to-dirt.  Watch out.  This guy made an extremely sharp impression on many in the post parade of the Robert B. Lewis and then went on to run huge, finishing ahead of I Want Revenge, who went on to take the Gotham (Grade 3) last weekend.  He’s a Smart Strike colt, much like a certain someone we all know.  At odds of 8/1 he’s an intriguing play, although I’d prefer having a posted workout to give us an indication of how he takes to the surface.  We’ll have to wait for the post parade.  If he makes a similar impression as he did last month, he’s the value play here in the win pool. (NOTE: See Edit Note in Selections section – apparently Papa didn’t ship very well)

Free Country, Uno Mas, and Nowhere to Hide all look usable underneath.  I don’t know why, but I’m just not a Giant Oak guy. Especially not at 4/1.  If his odds trickle up a bit he’s worth including, but he’s just not one of my top choices.  Hopefully the Oak doesn’t make me choke on Saturday. 

I’ll play Papa Clem and Friesan Fire for the win, in a bit of a departure from the norm.  I know that’s a bit odd.  I just don’t want to put all my eggs in one basket.   Weather could also play a role on Saturday, so I’ll spread my chances out by going in two slightly different directions.  I’ll settle on Friesan Fire for the Superfecta play, and  I’ll add in Patena and Flying Pegasus for place, with Uno Mas and Free Country for show.  I guess I’ll add in Giant Oak for 4th.   If Nowhere to Hide runs here instead of the Tampa Bay Derby I might add him in as well. 

Selections:

  • $20 Win #8 Papa Clem (EDIT:  I’m hearing over on Facebook that Papa Clem did not ship very well and my have a scraped leg. If true it would be wise to downgrade a bit…I may not be placing this wager)
  • $20 Win #9 Friesan Fire
  • $.10 Superfecta: 9/3,5,8/3,5,6,7, 8/1,3,5,6,7,8 ($4.80)

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Categories : Fair Grounds, Friesan Fire, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Kentucky Derby Trail

Road to the Roses stable

11 02 2009

The past few nights have been rather hectic as I’ve raced home from work and immersed myself in the yearly right of passage that is making my stable selections for the Road to the Roses fantasy challenge.  Ten horses, 2 trainers, and 2 jockeys – that’s what you pick.  You amass points by finishing in the money in major prep races over the better part of 3 months.  I can’t say I’ve had a lot of success with it, but I’m learning from my past and trying out new things in an effort to win the top glory that comes with having a winning stable.

I’ve named mine “The Aspiring Horseplayer” so that it’s connected with this blog.   Last year I believe I was “Stafford Stables”, but those responsible for the nightmare that turned into late in the challenge have been sacked (and those responsible for sacking those who have been sacked have also been sacked, and so on).  I started out well, but in the end was way too California heavy in ’08, with Colonel John, Georgie Boy, El Gato Malo, and Gayego.  No way I’m making that mistake this year.

Let’s start with the difficult part.  I’m not taking the horse that I believe would win the Derby if it were run today:  Vineyard Haven.   I know that seems counter intuitive, but there’s a solid strategic reason for this.  He’s prepping in Dubai at the moment, and probably won’t get his first opportunity to earn points for my stable until the UAE Derby on 3/28.  That is a Grade 2 (worth 12 points for a win), but there should be a “supplemental draft” after the first month of the contest, granting me a chance to swipe him after 3/14 as one of up to 3 additional runners I can add to my stable.   I’ll take the wait and see approach for now as I’ll need the potential for points from those limited stable positions.

I’m also not taking Stardom Bound, despite being a fairly big “Stardom Bound guy.”  I think the world of her, but the fact that she’ll be taking on the likes of Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse, and only IF she stays on the Derby trail (which is by no means a foregone conclusion) means that I”ll have to pass on her for now as well.

The top 5 picks for the stable are essentially a player’s “Simon Peter” – the rock, the foundation upon which the rest of the franchise is built.  For my top five, I’m taking Old Fashioned, Pioneer of the Nile, Friesan Fire,  Patena, and Captain Candyman Can.  I did not arrive at this grouping without much debate, however.   The first three were “no brainers” in my opinion, especially with Old Fashioned pointed towards a very reachable win right out of the gate in the Southwest Stakes on Saturday.  Likewise Pioneer of the Nile seems pointed now towards the San Felipe on 3/14 (just before the supplemental draft period) and the Santa Anita Derby after that.   Friesan Fire has simply done nothing wrong and everything right.  Patena and  Captain Candyman Can are risks though.  Patena might be Rick Dutrow and IEAH’s “A horse” judging from recent comments.  That said, he’s still a largely unknown and unproven colt.  Captain Candyman Can could be a one turn horse, but then again the Fountain of Youth has been shortened in distance, so keep that in mind. 

  • Old Fashioned (G3 S.West Stakes 2/14)
  • Pioneer of the Nile (G2 San Felipe 3/14)
  • Friesan Fire (G2 LA Derby 3/14)
  • Captain Candyman Can (G2 FOY 2/28)
  • Patena (G2 LA Derby 3/14)

The name of this game is about racking up points and keeping as many runners with real chances of finding the winners circle each week as you can.  I mentioned that I wasn’t covering as many California runners, and that I wasn’t going to play Stardom Bound (at least not yet).  You may notice from below that another name is missing.  The Pamplemousse.  Why?  Well , for starters he’s probably really only a safe play as of right now for the G3 Sham on 2/28.  While that would be some nice early points to rack up, I’m not sure how much of a threat he’d be against Pioneer and Stardom Bound if he tried the SA Derby.  Besides, like I said, I’m going CA light this year.

The bottom of my stable is a place to take some shots.  You don’t want to get too cray here as you’ll need to depend on most (if not all) of the horses you select, but things get interesting when you get to this level of the rankings.  Haynesfield sticks out as an obvious play for the NY preps (G3 Gotham, G1 Wood Memorial), but he’s probably not the lock folks think he is.  I think you have to cover him, as he’s been very impressive beating suspect quality, but I don’t think you can stand on him alone for those preps, and the Wood is a G1 you definitely want to hit.  For that reason, I’m taking Mr. Fantasy as well.  He’s got two impressive Beyers and looks like a horse that could give Haynesfield fits as the distances continue to challenge the talented Speightstown colt.   As if that weren’t enough, I’m also going to cover the new edition to Rick Dutrow’s barn, Danger to Society.  Originally I was not high on this guy, but I’m taking the advice of author and journalist Richard Eng, who won this contest a few years ago.  If he’s good enough for him to take a stand on, he’s good enough for me.  Coincidentally, another friend of this site, Cindy Pierson-Dulay, is also listed as one of the pros.  I’ve got to admit, it feels pretty cool when folks listed as pros are people you’ve actually met and talked about horse racing with.  Hats off to each of them.

I’ll round out my stable with the impressive runner up finisher Flying Pegasus, who looks like a horse that will improve greatly next out with a more favorable post position.  I may be overrating this guy, but if so it would appear to be a mistake that many are making.  He’s probably(along with Patena) the biggest “buzz” horse at the moment I’m seeing whispered in Facebook discussions and horse racing boards.  We’ll see.  I’ll take a stab with my 9th slot on him since he is pointing to either the Fountain of Youth or Louisiana Derby (or perhaps the Rebel).  My last slot will go to Hello Broadway, who but for what in my opinion was a far from perfect ride from Edgar Prado, might have defeated Captain Candyman Can in the Hutcheson.  I’m willing to give him another try as he seemed a worth favorite before fading late in the stretch.

  • Haynesfield (G3 Gotham 3/7)
  • Mr. Fantasy (G3 Gotham 3/7)
  • Danger to Society (G3 Gotham 3/7)
  • Flying Pegasus (?)
  • Hello Broadway (?)

I’m taking Rick Dutrow and Larry Jones as my trainers.  Strange, I know, for someone who isn’t the biggest Dutrow fan in the world, but the man seems loaded with talent this year.  Ditto for Larry Jones, who figures to go out on top with his first Derby win.  If there’s a sense of justice in the universe for what befell the man last year, he’ll be the champion this year. 

Jockey wise I’m going with Gabriel Saez and Garrett Gomez.  Saez because I feel when teamed up with Larry Jones makes the most formidable tandem in the country with 3-year-olds, and Go-Go  because, well, he’s Garrett Gomez.  Need I really say more?

Hopefully you are all playing along as well.  If you’re interested in joining the TBA League, contact Handride and he’ll send you the activation code.  Or you could join our small, but growing Facebook group.  Yes, we have a presence on Facebook.  Just head to our homepage and follow the links to the Facebook group.  I can picture myself dancing like Dr. Evil when I say that.  “What?  I’m hip. I’m cool.”    :)


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Categories : Fantasy Horse Racing, Horse Racing News, TBA


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