Shackleford Not Rusty in Preakness Victory

22 05 2011

“There he is – go up and see him!”

These were the words of encouragement I spoke to my wife on Thursday morning at Pimlico when we arrived to see the final Preakness workouts.  ”He”, of course, referred to her favorite 3-year-old in training, Shackleford, who had turned for home in the Derby in what seemed to be excellent shape after setting amazingly slow early fractions.  However, as we all know, it simply was not meant to be  for Shackleford and his supporters on the first Saturday in May.  Instead the final few hundred yards of Churchill stretch were to be all about Animal Kingdom.  As attention shifted to Baltimore, hardly anyone gave the front-running colt as much as a puncher’s chance.

Yet there he was this week looking regal as ever coming back from his gallop.  The son of Forestry strikes quite the figure on the track with his gorgeous chestnut coat.  As they brought him passed the stands, I blurted out somewhat awkwardly “Hey Shack – here’s your biggest fan!” while gesturing emphatically to my wife.  We snapped what photos we could while she commented on what a beautiful horse he was.   He had looked amazing in the Churchill paddock as well – at least as far as we could tell from the NBC broadcast in the comfort of our living room – but seeing him up close took things to a whole new level and left her somewhat breathless.

Shackleford working out on Thursday morning at Pimlico prior to his victory in the 2011 Preakness.

Later that morning she was able to speak with trainer Dale Romans and recount her Kentucky Derby experience.  When Shackleford cut that corner and came into the stretch, she had lept to her feet and began screaming her rear-end off.  Then she was forced to watch in dignified humility as the horse her husband was cheering for sailed passed her longshot in deep stretch.  ”My husband’s horse beat me in the Derby – I need you guys to get him this time around!” she joked to Dale as he signed a track program.  Upon returning from her encounter she promptly declared that Shack was going to be her Preakness pick and the only horse she would bet on to win.

Autograph of Dale Romans - trainer of 2011 Preakness champion Shackleford

“No way!” I scoffed.  “Why throw your money away like that?”

After all, If the horse couldn’t win after those Derby fractions, what chance would he have against a hotter pace in the Preakness?  Such considerations were trivial in her eyes.  Forget all the handicapping, the fractional times, and the supposed knowledge of the sport.  Sometimes it pays to have blind faith.  All that mattered to her was that she had found a horse to cheer for and believed in her heart of hearts actually had a chance.  In truth she did have a minor handicapping angle – repetitively insisting that the shorter distance of the Preakness would be more to Shackleford’s liking than it would Animal Kingdom’s – but it was the heart she was speaking with more than the mind (she had originally liked the horse because it reminded her of the alter ego of the character Dale Gribble, aka Rusty Shackleford, in the cartoon King of the Hill).

And it was the heart she was cheering with as her boy once again cut the corner and turned for home in the Preakness on Saturday.  At first glance I thought he was going to be swept passed by several horses yet again, but then he found more; picking ‘em up and putting ‘em down with determined effort.  My eyesight isn’t what it used to be when watching the track monitors, and it took me sometime in the confusion of the infield to figure out that the horse racing after him in the center of the track was my boy, Animal Kingdom.  Suddenly our voices rose as the excitement reached fever pitch.  Me screaming for my horse, and she for hers.  Down the stretch and into history.

If there’s one thing I have learned over the years following this game, it’s that things are cyclical – even if the connection is obfuscated at first glance.  It had been 4 years ago that we confidently strode into the Grandstands to see my beloved Curlin upset the Kentucky Derby winner.   Two years prior we had danced with joy near the winner’s circle as her beloved Rachel Alexandra held off another Derby winner (Mine That Bird) at the wire.  The in between years had been rather “meh” for us, as we were not fans of Big Brown or his trainer, Rick Dutrow (thanks to the absurd “paper rivalry” between he and Curlin), and hadn’t really felt an affinity with any of the 3-year-olds in last year’s crop once my boy Odysseus went down.

Had I been paying closer attention to that form cycle of on-off-on Preakness emotions, I may have walked out of the track with a lot more money in my pockets.  Paying greater attention to Shackleford himself would’ve done even greater good.

All week long my wife was subjected to the musings of everyone with a voice (including me) about what the horse couldn’t do.  She took it all in stride with dignified grace and quiet confidence.  All she cared about was what he could do.  For my part, I went into the race believing, as I always do, that the best 3-year-old wins the Preakness.   I believe strongly that recent history invites such a conclusion.  I just couldn’t see how Shackleford could be that horse?   Looking back at that Derby defeat, I think I do see it now.  The inside running lanes at Churchill may have simply been dead that weekend, and to the horse’s credit he did initially repel a very big move by Nehro before finally surrendering in deep stretch to the top 3 finishers.

Nobody was getting passed Shackleford today though.  In my heart I’ll always believe the Animal would’ve reeled him in with another few hundred yards, but such arguments are trivial.  The only thing that matters now is that for the rest of our lives, whenever we raise our Preakness glasses at Pimlico for a sip of  tasty Black Eyed Susans – there he will be.  Shackleford – enshrined along with the names of some of the greatest race horses to have ever lived.

He did it, babe.  I’ll be damned, but he did it.


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Categories : Animal Kingdom, Handicapping Selections, Pimlico, Preakness, Shackleford, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Preakness Full Card Selections

20 05 2011

It just wouldn’t be Preakness without some picks here at the Aspiring Horseplayer, would it?   Much has happened between the last time I had the opportunity to post and now.  Most significantly, I managed to nail my first Kentucky Derby winner correctly since Barbaro in 2006 when Animal Kingdom soared home at 21/1.  Feels good to get that monkey off my back!  That was likely the loudest I’ve screamed since another certain chestnut who was the subject of many a post here race his last race.   The victory connected my hometown roots with my Derby selections once again – as Fair Hill (home of the late Barbaro and now Animal Kingdom) was the spot were my lifelong love affair with horse racing first began within walking distance of my boyhood home.  What remains to be seen is if my streak of correct Preakness selections stretching back to Curlin in 2007 is now about to change as well?

Will there be enough magic in the Maryland air to bring us yet again within sight of the elusive Triple Crown that has remained just out of reach since the first month of my life in 1978?  In 24 hours we’ll know for sure.  Before we get to the big event, let’s spend some time going over the undercard races to see if we can pick a few winners.

Race 1:  Alw 31000 N1X (6 Furlongs)

We start things off with a 6 furlong conditional allowance event on the main track.  This one is for the early birds as post time is slated for 10:45AM.  Speed seemed to be holding up fairly well from what I could tell on Friday, so I wouldn’t have any concern going with a front runner if you land on one – but definitely pay attention to how that plays all day.  I went with #2 Boreal Forest as the horse most likely to shake loose in the opener and look to wire the field.  #8 Forest King has served as his main rival in the last two starts, and they appear destined to renew that matchup today.  If you’re looking for a price horse, #3 Devilish Gait makes some sense rolling from farther back in the pack at 12/1.  I might be tempted to use #1 Issues And Answers and #9 Technique (homer Graham Motion pick) on the bottom of the exotics.

  • #2 Boreal Forest (9/5*)
  • #8 Forest King (7/2)
  • #3 Devilish Gait (12/1)

Race 2:  Hcp 75002 (1 1/16 Miles)

A field of nine Maryland-breds awaits in the 2nd race of the day.  #2 Joel’s Touch may be able to get loose on the lead in a race that looks fairly paceless on paper, which would boost his chances significantly, but it’s hard to back a horse that is 0 for 5 at the distance and appears to want shorter.  #5 Heavenstmurgatroid took a huge move forward last out, and will probably have every bounce player in the country betting against him.  He should get a nice trip once again and anything close to that last effort would be good enough. #9 No Brakes may be the best horse of the field, but he didn’t get a lot of pace to close into and the post position Gods were less than kind.  Another horse I thought rated a shot is #1 Say Now at 12/1.  This horse has won 3 of his last 4 starts and drew a favorable rail position, although he has been off since February.  Lastly, there’s West Virginia invader #6 Across The Wind at 10/1.  Winner of 4 straight starts last fall who, judging by the last 3 efforts, may have found his way again.

  • #5 Heavenstmurgatroid (8/5*)
  • #9 No Brakes (9/5)
  • #1 Say Now (12/1)

Race 3:  Alw 29000 N1X (1 1/16 Miles – Turf)

The presence of #6 Battleground and #8 Gotta Believe Me should ensure a decent pace in the 3rd race of the day on the turf track.  I thought this might set things up very well for the man of the hour, trainer Graham Motion, and his #5 Golden Causeway making his first career turf start.  He should be able to sit stalk behind the leaders and if he takes to the Pimlico grass will have a big chance.  Likewise, there are positives about Graham’s other entry #11 Rampaige coming out of flat effort on the Keeneland plastic. #9 Double Eagle has the gaudy speed figures that many will focus on, but is clearly beatable having not won since last June.  Similarly, #12 Live The Dash has some impressive figures, but on paper is a one-turn sprinter.  Perhaps Julien Leparoux can get Majestictroubadour figured out and turned back in the right direction?

  • #5 Golden Causeway (3/1)
  • #9 Double Eagle (5/2)
  • #11 Rampaige (10/1)

Race 4: Grade 3 Allaire Dupont Distaff (1 1/16 Miles)

This race is all about #4 Life At Ten.  If the horse that many felt was a lock for the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic last fall before a post time debacle of epic proportions show up in her 2nd start of the year, this one could be over before it’s run.  The main threat may come from the former Black Eyed Susan champion #2 Payton D’oro, who has the strong tandem of trainer Larry Jones and jockey Gabriel Saez in her corner.  #6 Check Point is a fairly consistent daughter of Posse who should be able to give a good account of herself as well.  Then you have #3 Decelerator, who should be on the gas trying to gun for the lead. If she gets there, an upset could be in the making.  Still think that even not on her best that Life At Ten is simply too much for this field.

  • #4 Life At Ten (4/5*)
  • #2 Payton D’oro (4/1)
  • #3 Decelerator (5/1)

Race 5: OC 25000 N2X (5 Furlongs – Turf)

Turf sprints – my arch nemesis.  I’ll try to keep things simple here.  #4 Princess Malka exists back to back scores against similar, the last victory came despite being steadied.   With Sheldon Russell in the irons, I think this is the horse to beat.  #11 Toni’s The Won also exits consecutive victories, but drew a bit more unfavorably for a 5 furlong sprint.  Then there’s #8 Easy Ashley who like the others mentioned has a mini winning streak going – but will return to the grass this time out. #1 Belarus should be moving well late and may have a chance to spring the upset.

  • #4 Princess Malka (9/2)
  • #11 Toni’s The Won (5/1)
  • #8 Easy Ashley (7/2*)

Race 6: Chick Lang Sprint (6 Furlongs)

This is one tough race.  You could make a case for each of the 9 entries to win this thing as they aren’t separated by much.  I gave the checkmark to Todd Pletcher’s #4 Escort, who defeated 12 and posted a huge speed figure at Gulfstream 3 races back.  I”m willing to forgive the Keeneland debacle last out.   Since it’s such a contentious field, I’m also going to take a swing with #2 Chipshot at 10/1 on my deepest exotics.  If you’ve been burned by this guy before, today may be the day to catch him at a decent price.  #6 Road Ready looks ready to roll as well, but you can’t overlook the class of the field in #5 Vengeful Wildcat at 3/1.

  • #3 Vengeful Wildcat (3/1*)
  • #4 Escort (7/2)
  • #2 Chipshot (10/1)

Race 7: JW Murphy Sprint (1 Mile – Turf)

We move back to the grass for the 7th race.  This field was somewhat difficult for me to separate.  Starting from the inside, you have the always dangerous Ramon Dominguez aboard #1 Master Dunker.  Ultimately I liked the two outside runners best, #9 Humble And Hungry - who’s van I think I passed on the road shipping in from Sagamore, and the classy #10 Joe’s Blazing Aaron for trainer Michael Maker.  #4 Lil Bit O Fun and #1 Master Dunker have me on the fence about using, and the longshot I’d like to play on the bottom of my tickets is #7 Broad Rule.

  • #9 Humble And Hungry (5/1)
  • #10 Joes Blazing Aaron (5/2*)
  • #7 Broad Rule (12/1)

Race 8:  Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap (6 Furlongs)

Ready for another sprint? #3 Nathan’s H Q should be be the speed in this race, and  that should set him up nicely for a big run.  I”m not a big fan of the 8/5 favorite, #5 Ventana as I feel I’ve burned too many tickets over my life on that horse when he runs for minor awards.  #8 Safety Check looks interesting with a strong debut effort for the 2011 campaign last out.  I feel obligated to use #7 China because I’ll never hear the end of it from my wife, who happens to be Chinese, if/when the horse runs big.  Lucky for me he actually turned up in my handicapping as a possibility.

  • #3 Nathan’s H Q (4/1)
  • #8 Safety Check (9/2)
  • #7 China (6/1)

Race 9: Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap (1 1/16 Miles – Turf)

I’m still kicking myself for not having used my boy Graham Motion’s big winner on Breeders’ Cup weekend last fall in #6 Shared Account.  Gone are the prospects for anything like the 46/1 odds her supporters reaped that day. Instead I’ll have to settle on 4/5 chalk.   There are a few other horses I think are worth covering in the late Pick 4 that begins on this race.  #7 Desert Sage makes some sense exiting back-to-back victories for trainer Chad Brown.  #2 No Explaining is a consistent Irish-bred filly who can make some noise in this race.  Lastly, you have to pay attention to the outside runner, #8 Dyna Waltz.  She may want more ground in an ideal setup, but I think you play against classy Dynaformers on the turf (especially with Dominguez aboard) at your own risk.

  • #6 Shared Account (4/5*)
  • #7 Desert Sage (5/1)
  • #2 No Explaining  (4/1)

Race 10: Grade 3 William Donald Schaefer Memorial (1 1/16 Miles)

There’s a bit of intrigue in the WD Schaefer this year as #3 Eighttofasttocatch is also entered in the Dixie Stakes – but this race would appear to make much more sense for the son of Not For Love as he’s won back-to-back starts over the Laurel main track.  He’ll need to bring his A-game wherever he winds up, as some classy horses await, including the 3rd place finisher from the 2008 Preakness, #5 Icabad Crane.  ”Icky”, as some of us refer to him, has always thrived at Pimlico and should have a good shot here if he can get a target to run at.  He’s been on the shelf since February, so he may need a race, which is why you have to spread things around a bit and also cover #2 Apart and the speedy #8 Colizeo on the multi-race exotics.

  • #5 Icabad Crane (4/1)
  • #3 Eighttofasttocatch (6/1)
  • #8 Colizeo (7/2)

Race 11:  Grade 2 Dixie Stakes (1 1/8 Miles – Turf)

The Dixie has long been my nemesis.  Ever since Shakis failed in the 2008 running of the marquee turf race of the weekend, I’ve been unable to cash a single ticket on this race.  I even covered the entire field last year save for one horse, and I’m sure I don’t need to tell you what wound up happening to me.  Thankfully, the racing Gods have given me a small field to work with this year, but I can almost see Admiral Akbar warning me from the start; “It’s a trap!”

What makes this race difficult to decipher is that the attention on the tote board will be focused on last year’s 3rd place finisher in the Kentucky Derby, #4 Paddy O’Prado.  The son of El Prado is obviously more at home on grass than on dirt, but he’s also making his first start since last November.  That’s a heckuva time to be on the shelf.  If he shows up even with his B-game he likely beats this field, but he’s also the most vulnerable single folks will be standing on in the Pick 3′s, 4′s, and 6′s all weekend.  So who has a chance to pull the upset?  I think you start with #5 Baryshnikov at 10/1 with Leparoux in the saddle.  This Empire Maker colt has won 5 of his last 6 starts and offers double digit value on the morning line.  How often do you see that?  The ubiquitous Graham Motion barn also has an interesting shooter in #6 Slews Answer – a Ghostzapper gelding who has progressed nicely in 3 lifetime races.

  • #4 Paddy O’ Prado (4/5*)
  • #5 Baryshnikov (10/1)
  • #6 Slews Answer (6/1)

Race 12: Grade 1 Preakness Stakes (1 3/16 Miles)

Is this the year we finally get to bust out of the Triple Crown nightmare we’ve been stuck in for 33 years?  Everything now depends on the wild man himself, KY Derby champion #11 Animal Kingdom.  Folks, I think we’re looking at a special race horse here.  I don’t think this year’s crop is particularly deep or challenging, and certainly he hasn’t scared off the competition – as we are constantly reminded of the full field here in Baltimore for the Preakness Stakes – but just look at that form cycle.  If not for some traffic in the debut and an awkward start at Gulfstream Park, we’d be looking at an undefeated Derby winner.  Ironically, he’s oft-mentioned as a turf horse, or at least that was the knock against him going into the Derby, but so far the grass remains the lone surface he’s not won over.  So much for the smart guys, eh?

The Animal will not arrive until Saturday morning, but if he steps off that van in anything like the form he showed in Kentucky, well, good luck to the rest of ‘em.  The other contenders are not without hope though – as the pace setup for this race should be completely different.  Gone will be the slow 48-and-change fractions set by #5 Shackleford, as new shooters #4 Flashpoint and #8 Dance City will ensure a faster pace this time around.

Ultimately I see this race as being very formful.  I expect #11 Animal Kingdom to be flying down the stretch, coming from a bit closer than he was in the Derby.  I think #9 Mucho Macho Man will actually get first jump on the pace setters and that both Animal and #10 Dialed In will be gunning for that one in the stretch.  Of the new faces in the crowd, I’d anticipate the best run coming from #1 Astrology, who has really made an impression on me this week.   My wife will be rooting for #5 Shackleford like she was in the Derby, but beyond her steadfast support I can’t see that horse improving off the Derby setup.   You might be able to twist my arm and get me to do something with #6 Sway Away as well.

  • #11 Animal Kingdom (2/1*)
  • #10 Dialed In (9/2)
  • #9 Mucho Macho Man (6/1)

Happy Preakness!


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Pimlico

Preakness Selections

14 05 2010

The Woodland Vase - trophy of the Preakness Stakes

Preakness 135 – the day is FINALLY upon us.  After a fairly brutal afternoon at Pimlico on Friday (due to the heat, my lousy selections, and of course the spill in the Black Eyed Susan) – it’s time to make amends and “get our Preak on” with the selections.  As a much more learned man than I once opined (the great Master of Ceremonies himself – Hammer): It’s time to turn this mutha out!

We’ll focus on the major stakes races on the day, starting with the 6th (The Chick Lang Stakes).  You’re on your own for the early races – which I generally don’t do that well on anyway.  Overall, I’ll say that I though Friday was a much better day to play “beat the favorite” and that several of the favorites on Saturday’s card look more formidable – which of course means the exact opposite will probably happen, so wager accordingly!

Race 6 – Grade 3 Chick Lang Stakes – 6 Furlongs

The race named for the legendary “Mr. Preakness” himself, the late, great Chick Lang kicks off the major racing action for the day.  It’s not a very big field, so expect this to be a rather bland wagering opportunity.

  • #3 Comedero (7/5) – Worthy favorite is 6 for 6 sprinting.  His only loss came trying to go 1 Mile back in December. Respect.
  • #4 Quiet Invader (5/2) – Top challenger defeated Hurricane Ike last out.  If not for a freak injury earlier this week, Hurricane Ike would’ve been a popular betting interest in the Preakness.
  • #5 Latigo Shore (5/1) – Son of Malibu Moon has been steadied twice in 3 lifetime races.  His only clean trip he won for fun against Maidens.  Expect improvement.

 

Race 7 – The James W. Murphy Stakes – 1 Mile (Turf)
The JW Murphy came up a fairly tough race to decipher. Several contenders are making their first turf start – so quite literally anything can (and likely will) happen. I focused on those with turf experience, though the “dirt” horses are bound to offer better value on the tote board.

  • #11 Thunder Brew (5/1) – Exits back to back scores against softer competition.  Is also 2 for 2 at the mile distance.
  • #1 Cat Park (4/1) – Part of coupled entry for trainer Graham Motion that also includes #1A Vamos a Ver.  Was dusted by Paddy O’Prado and Dean’s Kitten 2 races back.  On his best stuff he makes sense here.
  • #2 Beau Choix (5/1) – No excuse for getting “caught” in last race.  Working like he wants to make amends.

 

Race 8 – Grade 3 William Donald Schaefer Stakes – 1 1/16 Miles
I joke that this race was almost changed to the Sheila Dixon stakes.  It’s a Baltimore thing.

  • #7 Blame (8/5) – Makes first start of 2010 campaign, but could be sitting on a big race.
  • #3 Understatement (2/1) – The most accomplished of the early-speed types in this race.  Seems to excel at this distance – though those wins all came at Aqueduct.
  • #1 Bullsbay (10/1) – May have lost a step, but he should get a solid pace to run at.  Never count a son of Tiznow out of any fight.

 

Race 9 – Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
I counted 5 runners here that I thought had a decent shot to win.  In addition to the selections listed below, #5 Quiet Meadow (10/1) and #2 Love’s Blush (20/1) warrant some attention as well in my opinion.  That being said, I’m a fairly big Rainbow View fan.  I’m fond of the filly – and hope she shows up with her best stuff.  I don’t think she’s a lock though by any stretch of the imagination.

  • #4 Rainbow View (1/1) – Classy filly has run respectably against the likes of Goldikova and Sariska.  Should improve on 2nd start of most recent form cycle.
  • #8 Shared Account (6/1) – Cuts back in distance where her early speed running style could set her up nicely.
  • #7 Denomination (10/1) – Smart Strike filly may finally be figuring out U.S. turf racing.

 

Race 10 – Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap – 6 Furlongs
Looks like another tough renewal of the MD Sprint.  The race seems wide open as just about the entire field is capable on their best stuff.  Beyond the listed selections,#11 Half Metal Jacket is another I’d give serious consideration despite the outside post draw.  The 11 hole seemed to do quite well on Friday.  That probably had more to do with the horses than the post, but suffice to say you might not want to automatically toss the outside runners.

  • #1 Snapshot (3/1) Thought the son of Awesome Again rated the best shot in this field.  The horses who have beaten him lately (Warrior’s Reward and Custom for Carlos) are pretty tough customers.
  • #3 Roaring Lion (6/1) – I don’t know that he absolutely needs the lead, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt.
  • #7 Ravalo (5/1) – Should appreciate return to dirt surface after pedestrian effort on synthetics.

 

Race 11 – The Grade 2 Dixie – 1 1/8 Miles – Turf
Over the years, this race has been my nemesis.  I’m captured in a Cindy Pierson Dulay photo of the 2008 renewal as longshot Pays to Dream crossed the line and knocked me out of a Pick 6 wager that was singled on Big Brown in the Preakness.  Thus, it comes as no surprise that I think 6 of the 13 horses in this field (nearly 50%) are threats to win the race and will be spreading DEEP here on the exotics.  Outside of the picks listed below, I’ll also be thinking about #9 Rahystrada (6/1), #6 Picou (10/1), and #5 Forgotten Dynasty (10/1).

  • #4 Just As Well (3/1) – I went “Captain Obvious” with the top selection as I thought this son of A.P. Indy might be the best horse in the field.   He hasn’t won since last July, but he’s faced the likes of Vodka, Champs Elysees, and Gio Ponti in that stretch.  He should find this field easier – with “should” being the operative term.
  • #2 Grassy (5/1) – A very well regarded son of El Prado (same sire as Paddy O’Prado) that just missed last out.  Could be ready to improve in 2nd start this year.
  • #13 Nicanor (8/1) – Forget those Preakness connections with Grassy I just mentioned…this here is Barbaro’s little brother!  He’s got some speed too, which he’ll likely have to flash from the 13 hole.  Even so he may need some angels on his withers when they enter deep stretch – but what a story it would be if pulled it off?

 

Race 12 – The 135th Preakness Stakes – 1 3/16 Miles
Here we go folks, the reason we are all here.  Will Super Saver march on to the Belmont with a pair of Triple Crown jewels in his pocket or will a rival jump up and snatch victory from Calvin Borel at the wire the way Curlin did in 2007?  We’ve already posted an initial “get to know the Preakness contenders” bit, so I’ll spare you the full field rundown.

Ultimately, I think 4 horses make logical win contenders here.  Obviously there’s Super Saver – that’s a no brainer.   Lookin at Lucky “should” get a better trip and has a chance to be right there at the wire.  Paddy O’Prado would be no surprise either – and by all accounts he’s looked well since arriving (just as he did at Churchill Downs 2 weeks ago).  Lastly, there’s Caracortado – who is becoming the “wiseguy’ horse of this Preakness.

As for the rest of the field, while conventional wisdom maintains that you focus only on horses that have run in the Kentucky Derby when searching for a Preakness winner (the only exceptions in recent memory being Rachel Alexandra in 2009, Bernardini in 2006, and Red Bullet in 2000), you might be interested to know how many times in the 13 renewals of the Preakness since 1997 in which a horse that did NOT run in the Kentucky Derby has finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd.  Check out page 7 of Derek Simon’s Preakness Betting Guide for what I feel is a telling illustration. If you’re looking for value horses to fill out the Exacta and Trifecta – be not afraid – recent history is on your side!

Caracortado would seem to be the logical “non-Derby starter” of this bunch to hit the board – but I’ll be honest and admit that I’m also keeping an eye on the odds for Yawanna Twist as well. Just a hunch – nothing more.  If anyone’s going to play the role of Macho Again from 2008 (the longshot who lit up the tote board under obvious favorite Big Brown), my gut says Yawanna Twist might be the one.

  • #8 Super Saver (5/2) – The Derby winner’s race to lose.   Has the tactical speed to prevail from either the lead or just off the early pace.
  • #7 Lookin at Lucky (3/1) – The time is now if he’s ever going to have his day.
  • #10 Paddy O’Prado (9/2) – Should be right next to Super Saver every step of the way. If the Derby winner gets beat, this horse will likely have a great deal to do with it.
  • #9 Caracortado (10/1) – “Scarface” has plenty of buzz around him.  Apparently he figures “another furlong, they’ll love me again.”
  • #5 Yawanna Twist (30/1) – My longshot bomber.  Light it up, baby.  Light up that tote board.  Evacuate the grandstand – we’re twisting on the dance floor!

Well folks – by the time this one goes official, the whole weekend will be a historical footnote.  Another memory quickly stuffed away and brought back only as a reference point for a particular story, or to illustrate a particular point.  Hopefully you’ve enjoyed yourself and spent some time living in the moment – and hopefully you’ve cashed a healthy amount of wagers along the way.

Now, readers, march away: and how thou pleasest, Preakness Gods, dispose the day!


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Triple Crown Coverage, Pimlico, Preakness, Triple Crown, horse racing, Lookin at Lucky, Super Saver, Paddy O'Prado, Caracortado

Curlixandra? Or perhaps Curlixander the Great?

6 05 2009

In a move that could potentially change the entire racing season if not the sport for years to come, owner Jess Jackson has purchased the super filly Rachel Alexandra, who won the Kentucky Oaks last Friday by an astounding 20 1/4 lengths.  And guess what? Not only might she run in the Preakness, but it sounds like Curlin and her might have some matters to attend to in the near future.  

Source: Bloodhorse:  Rachel Alexandra Sold

I’ll start with the tantalizing prospect that it’s still technically possible that Rachel Alexandra might race in the Preakness.   That’s probably a bit of a longshot, and Jackson will no doubt receive plenty of advice against such a decision, but I’ll go on record as saying I am hoping and praying for the opportunity to see her run against the boys two Saturday’s from now.  I don’t think any of them can touch her.  She might be vulnerable to some colts unwilling to let her loose on the lead, but you get the feeling this is the type of filly who can adjust her tactics and overcome just about any adversity that is thrown at her. 

Coming off her amazing victory in the Kentucky Oaks, I was left thinking that no horse had impressed me that much since Curlin.   I feel confident in assuming that all of you understand how serious such a statement is for me.   Never in a thousand years did I think that she might be acquired by the same connections as Curlin and given a chance for the Preakness!  Now that this has happened, it could be the highlight of the entire season.   I’m going to go on record saying another thing….and it’s something I haven’t said since ’07 with Curlin.  

Not only would I predict a victory from Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness, but I’ll go one step farther and say she’d win the Belmont as well, and we’d all be left wondering “what if” they had run her in the Derby?   On that matter, I’d like to be on the record as saying that considering the condition of the track on Derby day, I think the Oaks was the right call.   Plus, the way she drew off in that race has to have had a positive effect on her psychologically.   I’m sure she already knew, but if there was any self doubt in her at all she knows that she’s the real deal know. 

It would seem we are quite lucky to have a horsemen like Jackson in control of Rachel’s destiny at the moment.   He was unafraid of putting Curlin into challenges, be they the Triple Crown races,  the Classic (on any track condition), or overseas racing in Dubai.  He ran him on dirt, in the mud, on synthetics, and on the grass.   Across the world they travelled, winning major races at tracks like Pimlico, Belmont, Saratoga, Nad Al Sheba, Churchill Downs, and Oaklawn Park.   He gave us back the defending Horse of the Year for a 4-year-old campaign because he wanted to give the sport back it’s stars.   He seems dead serious about this, and I think he’s absolutely right. 

One of the main challenges we face is the fact that our most popular thoroughbreds become flashes in the pan as they are gone as quickly as they arrive, in most cases to early high priced retirement.   You just KNOW Jackson is game to send her against the boys in either the Preakness or the Belmont, and being the kind of guy he is, I’m willing to bet he’d like  her to win ‘em both.  Provided she’s ready, of course, and came out of the Oaks in sound condition.   I can’t imagine she didn’t, considering Calvin Borel never asked for anything as she won for fun by a million lengths (well, not quite a million, but about as close as horse can come that figure).

On the subject of the, shall we say, “private” matter…Last week we tossed around the notion half-jokingly that Curlin ought to be bred to Zenyatta’s mother, Vertigineux, and that the offspring might be named  “Verticurl.”  At some point after that posting, I decided that since I’m prone to making Vercingetorix references whenever the name Vertigineux comes up, that perhaps a better name might be “Curlingetorix”.   With the suggestion that Jackson is interested in one day breeding Curlin with Rachel Alexandra, might I suggest the names “Curlixander the Great” for a colt, or “Curlixandra” for a  filly?  Sound like champions to me.

While we’re on the subject of theoretical possibilities such as the offspring of Curlin and Rachel Alexandra, ponder upon this for a moment.  What if (and this is a big what if, but based on what we’ve seen thus far certainly not an impossibility) she went on to become both a Preakness and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner in her own right?   Could you imagine the pedigree of their offspring?   Classic winners on both sides?  Preakness winners on both sides?  It’s mind blowing.  Admittedly I know far too little about breeding thoroughbreds to be able to talk informatively about the pros and cons of such a pairing, so for now I’ll confine myself to dreaming about the possibilities that exist. 

I say send her to Baltimore, Jess.  Let her show the boys who the top 3-year-old in the nation is.   For me their is no question.  It’s Rachel all the way.


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Categories : Curlin, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Pimlico, Rachel Alexandra

Opening weekend at Old Hilltop

17 04 2009

It may not have the luster that it did at it’s zenith, but this weekend I’ll once again be venturing down to my familiar stomping grounds of Pimlico in Baltimore to welcome in the brief racing meet where it all began  (for m at least).   Actually that’s not entirely true, as my love of horse racing was first begun watching steeplechasers at the yearly Fair Hill races in my hometown of Elkton, MD.   “Old Hilltop”, however, is definitely where my love of thoroughbred racing was first born.

The meet couldn’t possibly be opening under less auspicious conditions.  The well documented bankruptcy filing of Magna Entertainment Corporation and the threat of  Maryland exercising eminent domain over the rights to the Preakness  leave much uncertainty in the air.  Who knows?  This may well be the final opening day at Pimlico I’ll have the chance to experience, so despite suffering through an exhausting bought of flu/cold symptoms this week, I’ve decided to soldier on through and show up in person to play along. 

On the national scene, things have quieted down somewhat just before they begin to heat up again in the final push for the Kentucky Derby.   There’s still a great deal of question about who will actually comprise the final field of 20 in the run for the roses.   Square Eddie is tossing his hat back into the ring with an attempt in the Coolmore Lexington at Keeneland.  Obviously I’d love to see the so called “baby Curlin” make a giant move forward, but I’m inclined to be more cautiously optimistic at this point.  He’s been on the shelf for quite some time and it might be asking too much for him to show up in “Derby ready” form this late in the campaign.  Considering my recent inability to pick a winner at Keeneland, the fact that I’m not going to predict a victory for him might be the best thing he has going for him.  I’ll be watching, but I’ll probably pass on the race. 

Speaking of the Derby, it seems that virtually everyone considers the top contenders to be some combination of Quality Road,  I Want Revenge, Friesan Fire, Pioneer of the Nile,  Dunkirk, and perhaps Papa Clem.   “Papa” is really the cut-off point, as he’s seldom mentioned with the top 5, but can’t be that far behind.   I’m getting a feeling that if you want to crack the Derby code and make a huge score come the first Saturday in May, your best bet might be in how you rank the next flight of contenders.   Here were talking about some combination of Musket Man, General Quarters, Hold Me Back,  the potential Dubai invaders (Desert Party and Regal Ransom), and the likes of Chocolate Candy.   I haven’t settled definitively on how to rank these closely matched contenders, but if I had to bet today I’d probably pass for the moment on the invaders and take a hard look at how the General, Musket Man, and Hold Me Back look once they start churning out workouts at Churchill. 

For now though, I”ll be feasting on a steady diet of $5000 conditional claimers, lightly raced maidens, and other lesser celebrated runners as I venture back to the hallowed halls of Pimlico.   There’s this weird feeling I get whenever I’m there lately, like the echo of Curlin’s victory in the ’07 Preakness are still cascading off the walls and around the track.   Hard to believe it’s already been years (plural) since that moment in time.  Where does the time go? 

So, with all this in mind, it’ll be a bit of a departure here at The Aspiring Horseplayer this weekend.  No massive posts containing public picks.  Maybe a whisper here or there  about any Derby gossip popping up.  It’s time to take account of the bankroll and freshen up on the handicapping as we get set for what has the makings of a very exciting Triple Crown season.   You’ve got to love that there is no “sure thing” at this point like we had with Big Brown last year.   This crop looks pretty evenly matched.  Just a few more weeks and all our questions will be answered.


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Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Pimlico, Square Eddie

Sunday handicapping selections – Pimlico

1 06 2008

Race 1: Md 12500 3↑ (6 Furlongs)

  • #4 Zero Coupon (8/5*)
  • #2 Final Authority (9/5)
  • #1 Silver Bay (6/1)

Looks like a two horse race on paper to me – and a rematch at that.  #2 Final Authority got the lead and the rail last out when facing today’s favorite, #4 Zero Coupon.  Final Authority was able to hang on for 3rd that day while Zero Coupon ran a disappointing 4th.  I look for a very similar race today, although I expect Zero Coupon to take a step forward today and perhaps turn the tables on Final Authority.  Zero Coupon could be stalking nicely as they turn for home.  A perfect trip might be just what the doctor ordered to wind up in the winner’s circle.  Whoever wins the battle between these two is your race winner.  I thought #1 SIlver Bay was eligible to move forward and might find himself up near the lead early on, but he’s a notch below the top two.

Race 2: Clm 10000  F+M 3↑  (1 1/16 Miles)

  • #4 Hello Easy Street (4/1)
  • #5 Really Nice (1/1*)
  • #1 Swear To It (7/2)

Hard to take a stand against the favorite #5 Really Nice here. The 9 time winner was beaten chalk at the $20k claiming level last time out. She’s easily capable of handling today’s distance and challengers are likely going to have to deal with her on the lead.  On the downside, she is a 7-year-old so there’s not really any room for improvement.  Be careful of taking at too low of odds.  1/1 just isn’t very attractive at all here, but she is capable.  #1 Swear to It exits a pretty good race last out where she faced some of the tougher State-breds on the track, including Four Karats, Vicar’s Vixen, and Pick Up The Tempo.  Like the favorite, Swear to It seems to prefer today’s route distance. Only concern is that she may not be tough enough in the stretch.  #3 Hello Easy Street warrants consideration here as well.  She should be coming late and if Really Nice starts to tire in the stretch, it could be this 4-year-old who takes a step forward today and steals the victory.

Race 3: Md 25000 F+M 3↑ (1 Mile – Turf)

  • #9 Najdiah (2/1*)
  • #2 Count Backwards (3/1)
  • #11 Holy Akadya (6/1)

Another chalky looking race on paper.  #9 Najdiah makes two moves that warrant expecting improvement; she takes the hood off and moves back to the grass where she does her best running.  I think she looks tough to beat here in today’s 3rd race.  #2 Count Backwards drops in from the Maiden Special Weight level and her usual race looks good enough to contend here.  #11 Holy Akadya is an interesting looking first timer who must first clear the Also Eligible list to draw into today’s field. 

Race 4: Md Sp Wt 28k 3YO (6 Furlongs)

  • #4 Short Dancer (1/1*)
  • #1 Plane Image (3/1)
  • #6 Loveme Lovemenot (6/1)

Another race, another formidable favorite to contend with. #4 Short Dancer adds blinkers to the J. Arce/S. Lake jockey-trainer combo tandem and enjoys a 14 point advantage in terms of best last Beyer speed figure.  #1 Plane Image is eligible to improve after breaking slowly and getting hung wide as the beaten chalk last out in his debut  I liked #5 Hesagoldmine and #6 Loveme Lovemenot about equal for the bottom of the exotic wagers. 

Race 5: Clm 25000 N2L F+M 3↑ (5 Furlongs – Turf)

  • #7 Grazezing (5/2)
  • #8 Little Topper (6/1)
  • #6 Kelly’s calling ( 9/2)

A very competitive 4th race could be a spot for players to look to make money. #7 Grazezing should get a great trip stalking the early speed and at 5 furlongs will need to be near the front to ensure a good finish.  #8 Little Topper really perked up on the grass two races back. #6 Kelly’s Calling should also be respected here. If she takes to the turf a bit better in her 2nd try, she could be a major factor in the stretch.  #3 Lady Grandeur should be coming late to threaten for the exotics. 

Race 6 Clm 7500 N2L F+M 3↑ (1 1/16 Miles)

  • #5 Miss Elloree (5/1)
  • #3 Greener Pastures (7/2)
  • #4 No Exposure (3/1*)

A very competitive conditional claimer in today’s 6th at Pimlico.  I tend to prefer recent form in such races, and #5 Miss Elloree fits the bill exiting a 6 length score to break her maiden last out.  #3 Greener Pastures drops in from open $12k claiming ranks after a turf try last out.  Trainer Hamilton Smith is an ace taking them from turf to the main track. #4 No Exposure was beaten chalk last out and retains the services of J. Arce.

Race 7: OC 32k/N3X 3↑ (5 Furlongs – Turf)

  • #5 What a Monster (7/2)
  • #3 Lycurgus (3/1)
  • #7 Skeleton Crew (9/2)

Depending on how this one sets up, #7 Skeleton Crew could either be on the lead or in a duel for the front. If it’s the former he could wind up hanging on to the end here.  Regardless, #5 What a Monster should be perfectly placed in striking distance turning for home.  #3 Lycurgus could be coming late, but if there’s not a lot of pace to run at he’ll need to be much the best in the stretch to prevail.

Race 8: Alw 30000 N1X F+M 3↑ (6 Furlongs)

  • #4 Camp Spirit (9/5*)
  • #3 Gus’s Axios (3/1)
  • #11 Abbicadabra (5/1)

You get the feeling #4 Camp Spirit is going to be singled on a number of pick 4 and pick tickets. The real challenger I could see is #3 Gus’s Axios, who could return as something to close to what she was in 2007 – although the workout tabs aren’t exactly heart stopping.  #11 Abbicadabra is better than that last race shows.  Drawing the outside will likely ruin her chances, but I feel like this gal can run with the other contenders.

Race 9: Md 2500 F+M 3↑ (1 1/8 Miles Turf)

  • #1 Tiffany’s Charm (6/1)
  • #7 Little Red Bullet (5/2*)
  • #2 Found Daylight (8/1)

#1 Tiffany’s Charm had a nice little turf debut on 4/24 finishing a close 3rd after having a bid in the stretch.  #7 Little Red Bullet is a must use in the exotics due to the drop from the Maiden Special Weight $27k level and the addition of blinkers.  #2 Found Daylight just ran back on 5/26, and it wasn’t a bad debut at all.  If she doesn’t scratch this one might be an interesting play.

As always, check for scratches/changes.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Pimlico

Saturday Pimlico Picks

24 05 2008

I’m headed down to old hilltop today with the family, as it’s already an absolutely gorgeous day outside in the Baltimore area.  We’ve got 10 races on the card, mostly of the maiden claiming and lower claiming variety.  We do have one featured race on the card, the $50,000 Shine Again Stakes, going 1 1/16 miles  for Maryland bred fillies and mares who have yet to win a stakes race.

Here’s my thoughts on the card in case anyone is playing along.  As of right now I plan on covering the Met Mile and some other races tomorrow (Sunday). 

Race 1:

  • #1 Love Tour (1/1*)
  • #4 Warwick Moon (2/1)
  • #2 Court Band (7/2)

Race 2:

  • #7 Cape Codder (9/2)
  • #3 Cee My Tizzy Run (7/5*)
  • #4 Barb’s Talking (15/1)
  • Note: also kind of interested in #1 Glyndon Park at 5/1

Race 3:

  • #3 Tripped Over (4/1)
  • #6 Dr Ec (12/1)
  • #4 Leroy Chop Chop (7/2*)

Race 4:

  • #4 Campfire Burning (2/1)
  • #1 Diffraction (8/5*)
  • #7 Calvin K (10/1)
  • Note: two others intrigue me as well: #1A Yacht Man (co favorite at 8/5*) , and #6 Hola C. Bright (12/1)

Race 5:

  • #6 Wilderness Terrace (5/2*)
  • #2 Social Register (8/1)
  • #8 No Flashlight (20/1)
  • Note: tough race if the Also Eligibles draw in – #9 Julia Tuttle (7/2) and #12 Scenery Change (3/1) also look plenty tough in here

Race 6:

  • #1 Wire Whip / #1A The Student  (1/1*)
  • #7 Bearstein (6/1)
  • #3 Jimmy’s Pride 4/1)
  • Note: #2 Fortunate Code looms a potential longshot upset at 10/1.

Race 7:

  • #4 Queen of Laughs (7/2)
  • #8 Only Me (4/1)
  • #3 Disco’s Daughter (8/1)
  • Note: playing against the favorite here, #7 Pure Fantasy (3/1*).  Also think that #2 Tejano Sea could be useful underneath, especially at 20/1.

Race 8 – the $50,000 Shine Again Stakes (feature race):

  • #5 Come Fly Away (2/1*)
  • #3 Take a Check (4/1)
  • #2 Real Property (3/1)
  • #6 All Smiles (8/1)

Race 9:

  • #4 Military Courage (7/2)
  • #2 On the Prowl (4/1)
  • #7 Polar Front (5/1)

Race 10:

  • #1 Ben the Beast (4/1)
  • #2 Legal Trouble (3/1*)
  • #4  Tigger Too (8/1)

As always, be sure to check for changes and scratches before wagering.  Good luck to everyone and enjoy the beautiful day.


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Big Brown Rolls in the Preakness!

17 05 2008

Big Brown, the undefeated son of Boundary, rolled to a scintillating 5 1/4 length victory in Saturday’s 133rd Preakness Stakes to take home the second jewel of the prestigiousTriple Crown of thoroughbred horse racing.  All that stands in his way from a date with destiny (one that has been 30 years in the making for horse racing fans) is the Belmont Stakes 3 weeks from now.   I know where I’ll be – and if you want to be a part of history you’ll be there as well. 

I haven’t even watched the replay below yet.  Let me just say that from where I was watching, I didn’t even see jockey Kent Desormeaux use the whip.  I think he may have tapped him a couple of times at the top of the stretch very lightly, but that’s it.  The bulk of the stretch run was a coasting handride. 

Desormeaux had a tight hold of Big Brown early in the race as he chased Gayego along the backstretch.  When asked for his run, all it took was a few tugs on the reins and he left the rest of the field in his wake.  Folks, this horse could’ve won by a dozen lengths if he wanted to.  It was that impressive.  

The final time for the Preakness was 1:54.80, which is about 1.4 seconds off the track record.  I think this colt could’ve threatened that track record if they had wanted to.  The fact that Kent Desormeaux barely had to ask him for anything can only have saved some horse for the Belmont.  

The only hurdle  left would appear to be Casino Drive and a daunting stretch in the 1 1/2 mile Belmont, a stretch where we’ve seen other impressive colts like Smarty Jones and Curlin go down to close defeats.  I know that the next round of doubts about Big Brown will likely be regarding the distance of the Belmont.  Can he get 1 1/2 miles?  I think jockey Alex Solis said it best when he stated “He already has!” followed by a reference to Big Brown coming from the 20 hole in the Derby.  Well said, Alex.  I have a tough time envisioning any hurdle this colt can’t overcome.  It would indeed appear we have ourselves a tremendous shot at a Triple Crown winner this year.

As for the rest of the day, the wife and I were tremendously pleased.  We were hitting trifectas left and right.  We started off with a tough loss in the 1st race, which after the shellacking I took yesterday almost destroyed my confidence, but luckily we were able to take home the early Pick 4 (thanks to a saver by Amy in race 4 that I begrudgingly included in our ticket).  I got to cash my first Preakness Pick 6 ticket!  It was a meager $19 (consolation for having 5 of 6 correct), but I was still pleased considring it was only a $12 ticket to begin with.  The same 19-1 longshot that knocked us out of the late pick 4 also burned our hopes in the pick 6.  Oh well…I didn’t see that guy coming from a mile away. 

We had a fantastic view of the horses as they saddled for the Preakness.  I’m not sure what the hold up was but the other runners were on the track for a good 10 minutes before Gayego and Riley Tucker came out to be saddled.  I’ve heard that Gayego can be a handful, although I”m not sure if that had anything to do with it.

Kentucky Bear looked very impressive to me in the post parade, but unfortunately didn’t quite show up as expected during the race.  I think he’s still got room to improve though being so lightly raced.  Icabad Crane proved he was the “horse for the course” by rallying from 12th in the early going to get up for 3rd at the wire. 

Beyond that, I got to have some drinks with a part owner of Big Brown, and got to shake Kent Desormeaux’s hand after the race.  He actually walked right up to where I was standing as he was exiting the winner’s circle.  Pretty cool, huh?  Also got to meet a number of fascinating fans.  I’m telling you, the Turfside Terrace is one of the coolest places I’ve ever been.  The grandstand was posh and a good experience last year, but in my opinion the TT (Turfside Terrace) is where it’s at. 

Here’s some photos we took of the big day.  It was next to impossible to photograph the Preakness post parade from where we were due to the wall of people in front of us on the track.  In looking at these, I think we’d be disgracing the art of photography if we even called these “amateur-ish”, but nonetheless, here are a few of the sights we were able to save for posterity (click on the thumbnails to view full-size images): Read the rest of this entry »


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Categories : Big Brown, Horse Racing News, Pimlico, Preakness, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

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