Quality Road, I Want Revenge top Derby rankings

5 04 2009

 

While the past week didn’t produce any shocking upsets or long prices in the major Derby preps, it was arguably the most important of the entire campaign.  It now appears that The Pamplemousse will be off the Kentucky Derby trail.  The impact of this blow was softened somewhat by a dominating performance from I Want Revenge in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, proving that he is a legitimate Derby threat (and possibly more).   Everyone is furiously adjusting their rankings taking into account the recent changes as all of the roads to the Derby begin to converge.  

We’re getting down to H-hour, folks.  You can feel it in the air.  I even cut my lawn this weekend for the first time this Spring.  I’m a bit upset that we’ve lost The Pamplemousse, as he was one of my favorites, but I’m hopeful that  a horse like Dunkirk will now find a way to squeeze into the field.  He’ll make it a more interesting race if he does.   With a month to go, here’s how I rank ‘em.  

 

  • #1 Quality Road  - Hard not to give him the slight edge by virtue of his brilliant wins in the Florida Derby (G1) and the Fountain of Youth (G2), but it was not an easy decision.   His sire, Elusive Quality, also gave us Smarty Jones a few years back, and  we all know how that turned out.  The biggest question he will face is whether the track at Gulfstream Park was favoring his speedy style.  With the defection of The Pamplemousse the likely pace outlook has changed.  I think it will take  a horse who is somewhat forwardly placed to win it now, and Quality Road should be right there.  A sensational colt who could be our best Triple Crown threat.

 

  • #2 I Want Revenge-  Feel you could rank the top three runners as 1, 1A, and 1B.   I Want Revenge was just absolutely dominating in winning the Wood.  He had no business winning that race, and he didn’t even have to win it.  The fact that he did so makes it a mind blowing performance – off the Richter scale impressive.  It’s exciting to see jockey Joe Talamo have his chance on a big named 3-year-old.  Looks like a force to be reckoned with.

 

  • #3 Friesan Fire – Drops a bit, though not by anything he has done.  It’s just that as impressive as he looked winning the Louisiana Derby (G2), Quality Road and I Want Revenge have looked even better. Larry Jones is giving the colt a long break before the Triple Crown campaign begins, and he’ll go into the Derby on 6 weeks rest.  I know some folks are questioning that, but I would not question anything Jones does with 3-year-olds as for my money he’s the best in the business with them.   I would not forget about this guy come the first Saturday in May.  He threw a sharp bullet work just before his performance in the Louisiana Derby (G2).  Pay attention to how he works leading up to the big day.

 

  • #4 Pioneer of the Nile - Moves to the front of the California division by virtue of his victory in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) as much as the defection of The Pamplemousse from the Derby trail.   Many think he’s bred for turf/synthetics, but he’s a fighter that finds a way to win.  The obvious challenge in predicting his Derby potential is that we’ve yet to see him run on true dirt and won’t until the first Saturday in May.  For what it’s worth, the colt is currently on top of our 3-year-old colt standings over at the TBA.

 

  • #5 Dunkirk – Still has to draw into the field, but if he does he has to be given a chance.  The only horse to have bested him thus far is Quality Road, so if that one is a serious contender than Dunkirk must be as well.   I’d prefer to see him pack on a little muscle before the Derby, but this guy still has a world of upside potential.   Didn’t look like he enjoyed his hard effort in the Florida Derby (G1), but is bred to go the distance.  I suspect he’ll be the “wiseguy” horse going into the Derby.  With the loss of The Pamplemousse and the wins by Musket Man and I Want Revenge last weekend, he just might make it into the field.  It’ll be close. 

 

  • #6 Old Fashioned – Has a chance to redeem himself in the Arkansas Derby next week.  At one point this guy was the favorite for the Derby.   He let one horse get passed him in the stretch of the Rebel  (G2) and then came crashing to earth.  Clearly he is option  B now behind Friesan Fire for Larry Jones, but this colt could still make some noise before all is said and done.

 

  • #7 Desert Party – I felt that this was the right spot for one of the two Godolphin runners from Dubai (Regal Ransom, winner of the G2 UAE Derby, being the other).  You could rank whichever one you like the most here.  My feeling was that Desert Party would get a chance to prove the UAE Derby effort a fluke and turn the tables on Regal Ransom.  There doesn’t seem to be much separating these two.  This guy’s stock will rise or fall depending on how he looks once arriving in Kentucky. 

 

  • #8 Win Willy – I’ve been on this guy’s bandwagon since his run in the Rebel (G2), and will likely remain on board for the ride as far as he takes us.   I was blown away by his powerful move in the Rebel.  If he defeats Old Fashioned again in the Arkansas Derby, than he’ll prove he’s a  legit contender.   His chances in the Derby will likely come down to the pace setup and what gate he draws as he seems to be a closer. 

 

  • #9 Chocolate Candy - Ran well in the Santa Anita Derby but could not get past Pioneer of the Nile.   He’s another who it will be hard to gauge on true dirt until we see some strong workouts. 

 

  • #10 Musket Man – Not sure how this guy will stack up against the big boys as he’s been facing weaker competition, but he is a horse who knows how to find the winner’s circle.  A $15,000 purchase at the September 2007 Keeneland sale, he continues to move forward with each performance.  Illinois Derby win gives him victories at 4 tracks now in just 6 lifetime starts.  That’s got to count for something and suggests he’ll ship well to Kentucky. 

 

Other horses to keep an eye on include:  Papa Clem, Theregoesjojo, Regal Ransom, and Mafaaz.  Up next this weekend are the Arkansas Derby (G2) and the Blue Grass (G1).


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Friesan Fire, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pioneer of the Nile, Quality Road, The Pamplemousse

Quality Road deserves top ranking

29 03 2009

A horse, a horse, my kingdom for a horse!

Now that Quality Road has dispatched the heavily hyped Dunkirk, just where does the son of Elusive Quality belong in the rankings for the 2009 Kentucky Derby?  All the way at the top, if you ask me.  His gutsy performance to hold off the late charging Dunkirk in the stretch at Gulfstream Park has convinced me that this lightly raced colt will be a force to be reckoned with come the first Saturday in May. 

Quality Road finds another gear to hold off Dunkirk in the Florida Derby

Ranking the Derby contenders gets incredibly complex, if you allow it to be so, due to the different paths being taken by the various runners.  Without an opportunity to size them up in face-to-face competition, one is left using the non-scientific approach of interjecting much speculation into their analysis.   Even taking things as straightforward as final time comparisons cannot be considered truly “apples to apples” due to the differences in surface at each of the race tracks in question. 

So what are we to make of Quality Road?  How does he match up with the other big guns?   At some point you have to draw the line between hype and actual production.  It’s a blurred line and one that is constantly changing as the situation unfolds.  For example, I believe that right now you have to rank Friesan Fire and Quality Road above the other contenders.  They’ve finished their preps, and they’ve both done so in impressive style.  Just around the corner, however, we’ll get our best read on the contenders coming from California (in the Santa Anita Derby), and New York (In the Wood Memorial), so things are not set in stone at the top of the list.  

Let’s start by looking at the top 5:

  • #1 Quality Road
  • #2 Friesan Fire
  • #3 The Pamplemousse
  • #4 Pioneer of the Nile
  • #5  I Want Revenge

I don’t think there’s much variety out there in terms of who belongs in the top 5.  The argument seems to be  where these top 5 should be ranked in relation to one another.  Disregard the #1 and #2 rankings for a moment on Friesan Fire and Quality Road.  Truth be told I consider them to be dual #1 contenders.  Both colts used similar stalk and pounce approaches to cash in on their recent victories.  Friesan Fire had to run down the speedy Papa Clem early on, and then hold off late charges from Terrain and Giant Oak.   Many of the bigger named horses who gave the Louisiana Derby such a deep feel prior to the race (Flying Pegasus, Patena, etc.) simply did not fire for whatever reason, leaving Friesan Fire with a relatively easy victory once he reeled in Papa Clem.   Quality Road didn’t face a field quite as deep on paper, but the big names in the Florida Derby did show up to run, as he had to hold off the late charging Dunkirk in the stretch (as well as Theregoesjojo who ran well enough for show) after dispensing with longshot pacesetter Casey’s on Call.  The end result?  I think you’ve got to have these guys one, two.  Where you rank them amongst each other is open for debate, but for now I”ll give the slight edge to Quality Road, and continue to be disappointed that I could not select the horse in the Road to the Roses challenge.

Moving down the list, the next great debate is what to do with the California runners and I Want Revenge.  Obviously if I Want Revenge had remained in California, this would be easier to do from a direct comparison standpoint.  However, that would have left us completely unable to determine how these colts might run once they tried the dirt for the first time.  With the defections of Papa Clem and I Want Revenge and the subsequent success they’ve enjoyed, their would seem to be much promise for the colts currently leading the California Division;  The Pamplemousse and Pioneer of the Nile.  Until Pioneer of the Nile shows he can rundown The Grapefruit (which he very well might do in the upcoming Santa Anita Derby), I”ll continue to rank The Pamplemousse ahead of him.  With The Pamplemousse firmly entrenched at 3rd, that makes things simple for me as I can look at the next two and say “well, Pioneer of the Nile defeated I Want Revenge head to head, so he stays on top for now.”  Of course, it’s never quite that easy, and the 113 Beyer figure that I Want Revenge earned on dirt in the Gotham suggests he’s just as capable as Quality Road.  Here’s one last factor in stacking them as I have above.  Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse will square off face to face next weekend at Santa Anita, so we’ll get a much clearer read on how they match up.  I Want Revenge will face a challenge from some of the lower ranked contenders, and could be vulnerable if a runner like Imperial Council rises to the occasion. 

  • #6 Old Fashioned
  • #7 Imperial Council
  • #8 Dunkirk
  • #9  Chocolate Candy
  • #10 Win Willy

Things get a bit fuzzier once you’re outside of the top 5.   The first challenge is what to do with the falling stock of both Dunkirk and Old Fashioned.   Dunkirk in particular might not have enough earnings to even qualify for the Kentucky Derby, which basically makes his position on a Derby rankings list rather moot.  Let’s say he does find a way to draw into the field though.  Then what would we make of him?   Is he not good enough to merit consideration among the bigger guns?   We  must remember that the Florida Derby was this horse’s third race of his career.  There’s still a tremendous amount of room for improvement, and judging from the way this guy is bred and the fact that he’s only allowed one horse to finish in front of him so far (and did not go down without a fight), I think you’ve got to keep him around.  Ditto for Old Fashioned.  Larry Jones is simply too good a horseman for this guy to fall too far.  I’m convinced Friesan Fire is his best shot, but Old Fashioned has enough class in him to get past many in this year’s crop.  

Then you’ve got some room for “buzz” horses and longshots.  Imperial Council fits into that former category and now becomes the hype horse in the rankings.  He’ll get a shot to turn the tables on I Want Revenge in the Wood, and if he were to do so he’d have to be considered a top 5 contender in the Derby at least.  I’m still holding out hope that this guy could be the best of the Empire Maker colts this year (with all due respect to Pioneer of the Nile). 

Chocolate Candy is now the “Rodney Dangerfield” of this list.  Each week it’s someone different who gets no respect.  In CC’s case, I believe it’s because folks simply haven’t had many good looks at him..  All that will change next weekend with the Santa Anita Derby.   He needs to finish in the top 3 to warrant this ranking, but stop for a moment and consider what a shakeup it would be if he found a way to prevail?   I’m not saying that will happen, but what would the fallout be if it did?  The only thing I can find that he hasn’t done is to win a race recently. 

Lastly, there’s my longshot Win Willy, who I’m going to hold onto in this rankings until someone else forces me to remove him.   I’ll clue you in on another thought going through my mind right now that relates to this guy.  The Pamplemousse is a speedy type.  Friesan Fire, Quality Road, and even Old Fashioned like to be just off the pace anywhere from 2nd to 4th in the early running.  We just might have enough early zip up front that things could open up for a closer like this.  It might take some additional lights out speed signed up on the front end, but I’m just saying that a horse that isn’t on most people’s lists despite running a very visually impressive race to defeat the then top ranked Old Fashioned still warrants some consideration.  

So there you have it, for the moment at least.  In the spirit of the increasingly annoying Capital One credit card commercials:  “Who’s on your list? “


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Categories : Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pioneer of the Nile, Quality Road, The Pamplemousse

How deep?

22 03 2009

“There were these two fellars standin’ on a bridge, a-goin’ to the bathroom. One fellar said, “The water’s cold” and the other fellar said, “The water’s deep”. I believe one fella come from Arkansas. Get it?” 

Billy Bob Thornton’s memorable character Carl from the film Sling Blade  may as well have been talking about the depth in this year’s crop of 3-year-old thoroughbreds when he uttered the memorable phrase quoted above.  While everyone, including myself, plods away at the ubiquitous “top 10″  lists for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, there’s an interesting story line running right beneath the surface that is only beginning to be touched upon.  If we are willing to accept, as many are, that 2007 was a uniquely deep year for 3-year-old thoroughbreds,  and that the emergence of Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday, and the filly Rags to Riches represented one of the  most talented overall crops our eyes have been blessed to see – than the prospects for 2009 look extremely bright.  While this past weekend at Turfway Park was hardly the type of high-profile marquee racing action needed to return the sport to it’s glory days, some happenings throughout the week provided clues as to just how deep this field may be.

So, with gratuitous top 10 lists on the brain, Let’s start by taking a look at our current rankings here at The Aspiring Horseplayer.

(Note: until they are definitively pointed to the Derby, I’m assuming Stardom Bound and Rachel Alexandra are headed to the Oaks…for the record I’d probably be inclined to rank Rachel Alexandra #1 overall at the moment if she did point to the Derby, and if she weren’t #1,  she’d be darn close.  Stardom Bound is more difficult to rank.  My heart says to rank her high, but my gut tells me no higher than 4th behind Pioneer and The Pamplemousse…for the moment that is).  

  • #1 Friesan Fire – deserves to be ranked #1 off his impressive victory in the Louisiana Derby.  Appears to be getting a rest before the Triple Crown, something that will cause some to downgrade his chances slightly.  Trainer Larry Jones is as good as they get, so if he’s training smartly once he sets foot at Churchill, he’ll be hard to dethrone as the likely favorite.

 

 

  • #3 Pioneer of the Nile -  I started out the year determined to not become over-infatuated with the California runners, and look what’s become of me!   “Look what they done to my Santino!  Look what they done to my boy!!! “  He can leapfrog The Grapefruit if he can beat him in the Santa Anita Derby in two weeks.  It’s showdown time in the wild, wild, west.

 

  • #4 Dunkirk -  It’s almost inexplicable.  A colt with $0 in graded stakes earnings just over a month before the Kentucky Derby, who did not run as a 2-year-old, is taking the future wagers action by storm!  Clearly we all saw something in that allowance victory that hints at greatness.  My thought after watching the race was that it reminded me of seeing Curlin or Big Brown in their 3-year-old allowance victories.  I think that’s exactly why this guy is so popular.  People see his potential and they associate the recent success of Curlin and Big Brown off of similarly lightly raced resumes.  It’s just that we must temper that expectation a bit by the realization that he’s certainly running in a deeper crop of 3-year olds than Big Brown did, and he might be running in a deeper crop than even Curlin did…and he’s even more lightly raced than those two were.  He’s hyper-lightly raced.   We’ll find out if he’s the real deal in the Florida Derby next weekend.  A loss will send him plummeting.  A win might make him the Derby favorite. 

 

  • #5  I Want Revenge -  it’s not improper to actually have this guy ranked ahead of the other California colts (and Dunkirk) all the way up at #2 by virtue of his impressive 113 Beyer performance in the G3 Gotham.  He’ll get tested again in the Wood in April and bounce candidates will likely be looking to feast, but now there’s rumor that IEAH is attempting to purchase the colt after their “A-horse” (Patena) did not run particularly well in the Louisiana Derby last weekend.  Is Joe Talamo going to win a Derby before he’s old enough to legally consume a Mint Julep in the winner’s circle? 

 

  • #6 Quality Road -  he’s often my forgotten horse.  My head-scratcher.  Like I Want Revenge, he also owns a 113 Beyer figure that seemingly towers over the competition.   He’ll have to prove he can do that going longer than the abbreviated Fountain of Youth.  He’s capable of beating the runners ranked above him.

 

  • #7  Old Fashioned -  Hard to drop him too far off one lifetime defeat, but things don’t seem to be going the right way here.   Was the near-consensus #1 just a few weeks ago.

 

  • #8 Win Willy -  I’m hoping to be out in front of the bandwagon on this guy.   Looking over his effort against Old Fashioned, I can’t help but sing:  “…then I saw his face.  Now I’m a believer!”  Or in keeping with my Sling Blade theme, I could always fall back upon the following defense if this guy fails:  “They turned me loose from the nervous hospital!”  It is interesting to keep in mind that someone  (IEAH?) tried to purchase him after his upset of Old Fashioned, so at least someone else out there liked what they saw as well. 

 

  • #9 Imperial Council -  Does anyone really think this guy can’t jump up and win the Wood?  If he does take the Wood, he’ll  be “Rocket man, burning out his fuse up here alone!” and probably have the fastest rising stock of the group.  If he turns in a sub-par performance and I Want Revenge waltzes away with it, it’ll be back to square one. 

 

  • #10 Chocolate Candy – We haven’t heard from this guy in a while, but he’ll get a crack at Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse in the Santa Anita Derby this April.  He appears to be the third best of that group, but I’m not ready to count him out of this fight just yet.  It’ll likely be a small but talented field in the SA Derby, including Mr. Hot Stuff. 

 

Most fans have some combination of the same runners in their top selections: Friesan Fire, The Pamplemousse, Pioneer of the Nile,  Dunkirk, and I Want Revenge.

Depending upon how one feels the “filly saga” will play out, Rachel Alexandra and Stardom Bound certainly deserve mention among those competitors.  Rachel Alexandra in particular could be the best of the entire crop, as she’s been running faster than the boys on dirt, but for now appears bound for the Oaks.   Stardom Bound is a gutsy competitor who reminds me  in many ways of Zenyatta with her sheer determination to win.  Many are holding out hope that IEAH decides to point her to the Derby instead of the Oaks.

Now here’s where it gets interesting.  The logical win candidates for the Derby do not end with those horses.  You’ve got to at least mention Quality Road and his gaudy 113 Beyer.   After all, that’s the same figure I Want Revenge earned.  It’s just that Quality Road only went a mile, but he looks like he’ll go longer with no problems. 

Then there’s Dunkirk.  He’s the x-factor of the crop as he’s been heavily played in future wager pools despite having a whopping total of $0 in graded stakes earnings.  It’ll be all or nothing for Dunkirk in the Florida Derby next week.   If he’s harassed by the Wehrmacht and the Luftwaffe entering the far turn…no wait, scratch that…wrong Dunkirk.  Although he does need a clean trip.

How about Old Fashioned?  Remember that guy?  Just a few weeks ago he was the consensus #1 among most of us pundits, now here he is towards the bottom of the list.   He’s only been beaten by 1 horse in his career, but there are storm clouds on the horizon.  Larry Jones has stated Friesan Fire is the best colt in his barn, and there was a comment made during the ESPN broadcast yesterday that it’s “now or never” for Old Fashioned.   He’s got the talent and class to reach down and run a big one, but as of right now I think you have to rate others higher. 

So who was that one horse who managed defeat Old Fashioned?  Oh yeah, Win Willy!  Honestly he’s the guy I”ll probably take the most flak (there’s my 2nd gratuitous World War 2 reference of the post) for continuing to rank in my top contenders.  I’m trusting my eyes on this one, and my eyes told me that this was a fine colt with big races still ahead of him.

That’s 10 horses already that have legitimate shots to win the Derby.  And guess what, we can still go deeper.   Imperial Council will go into the Wood as either the 2nd or 3rd choice on the morning line behind I Want Revenge and (possibly) Quality Road.   He may not have the same foundation as Pioneer of the Nile, but he could still wind up being the best of the Empire Maker offspring in this crop.   It wouldn’t take much to imagine him finding a way to prevail in the Wood, and if he did than he’d obviously leapfrog I Want Revenge. 

And the list goes on and on.  I’m going to bypass Dubai for the time being.  Suffice to say there are a couple of runners who could still ship to the U.S. and make some noise this spring, but until they do I’ll view them as outsiders.  Add to this list the likes of Chocolate Candy, Musket Man, Theregoesjojo,  and Papa Clem and you get the picture. 

 So how deep is this year’s field?   it’s Arkansas -fellar pissin’ on a bridge deep!   That’s how deep we’re talking about here.


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Categories : Friesan Fire, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Old Fashioned, Pioneer of the Nile, Stardom Bound

Pioneer of the Nile guts it out to win the (G2) San Felipe

14 03 2009

 

Bob Baffert trained Pioneer of the Nile was all out in the stretch, but was able to maintain his drive and hold off the late charging Feisty Suances and Jeranimo to prevail in Saturday’s 72nd running of the $200,000 San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita.  The victory was the third in a row at the graded stakes level and boosted the lifetime earnings of Pioneer of the Nile to $784,200 in 7 lifetime starts.  Even more importantly, he’s now earned $240,000 so far this year having prevailed in the Robert B. Lewis (G2) last February. 

Results Chart

At the beginning of the race, jockey Joe Talamo sent speedy outside runner New Bay to the front, where he was able to set opening fractions of :23.96 and :48.60.   Pioneer of the Nile tracked about 4-5 lengths off of New Bay in the early going and began to move forward near the half-mile pole.   Once in the turn, jockey Garrett Gomez asked Pioneer for his run, and he made his bid with about 2 furlongs remaining.  He was able to pass New Bay entering the stretch, and then had to hold off the late charges of Feisty Suances and Jeranimo, who were running well late.

Pioneer of the Nile crossed the wire in the 1 1/16 mile San Felipe in  1:43. 35.  Sent off as the 1/5  favorite, he returned $2.60 for the win.  The $2 Trifecta with Feisty Suances in place and Jeranimo in show returned $72.20. 

The win was a sweet one for yours truly as I have both Pioneer of the Nile and jockey Garrett Gomez in the Road to the Roses challenge. 

Up next for the son of Empire Maker will be a showdown with The Pamplemousse  in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 4th.  Judging from what we’ve seen, he’ll likely have his hands full with The Grapefruit.   All of ‘Pioneer’s recent wins have been close though, so he is definitely a horse with some guts when it counts.   It is worth keeping in mind though that The Pamplemousse set early splits of :23 flat and :46 and change in his romp in the Sham on the last day in February. 

There’s still a chance that runners like Chocolate Candy and Stardom Bound could draw into the Santa Anita Derby, making it infinitely more interesting than the current 2-horse-race.  I expect Bob Baffert will have Pioneer of the Nile ready for a big effort in April.  It’s just that he’ll need his absolute best to get past The Pamplemousse.  However, you know what they say.  They all put their horseshoes on one hoof at a time.  A lesson we would be subjected to  in Arkansas before the day was through. 

 


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pioneer of the Nile, Santa Anita

Pioneer of the Nile towers over San Felipe field.

13 03 2009

Pioneer of the Nile, the improving son of Empire Maker who has already prevailed in the CashCall Futurity (Grade 1) and Robert B. Lewis (Grade 2) looks quite the imposing figure when glancing through the past performances of Saturday’s Santa Anita card.  Only six challengers have answered the call.  The field for the 72nd running of the 1 1/16 mile San Felipe (Grade 2) sets up like this:

Past Performances available here

  1. He’s Really Big (A. Gryder/ R. Becerra) 30/1
  2. Pioneer of the Nile (G. Gomez/B. Baffert) 2/5*
  3. Feisty Suances (D. Flores/ D. Vienna) 10/1
  4. Shafted (J. Rosario/M. Casse) 8/1
  5. Jeranimo (B. Blanc/M. Ponder) 20/1
  6. Kelly Leak (V. Espinoza/ M. Machowsky)  6/1
  7. New Bay (J. Talamo/ R. Mandella) 8/1

Towering.  Imposing.  Daunting.  How else can one describe how this one looks on paper?  But wait!  What’s this?  We must keep in mind that Pioneer of the Nile has likely already stamped his Kentucky Derby ticket, and now has his eyes cast firmly towards April as dreams of a victory in the Santa Anita Derby fill his connection’s heads.  Might there be an opportunity for an upset?   Not likely, in my opinion.  Trainer Bob Baffert is a shrewd horsemen.  He knows how to have his horses primed for peak performances when it counts.  While this Saturday is not one of those days, it won’t take his best effort to defeat this field. 

We last saw ‘Pioneer prevailing over two extremely good looking colts;  Papa Clem and the recently crowned Gotham champion I Want Revenge.   I’d give either of those two a tremendous shot at turning the tables here today, but alas ‘Revenge has gone eastward, and so hath Papa Clem.  Instead, we get a few recent allowance winners who would appear capable of hitting the board on the bottom of exotic wagers.

Kelly Leak is a horse I have a lot of respect for.  He stands as the obvious second choice at 6/1 and will likely take a healthy dose of exacta play.  He’s gutsy enough to force his way into the picture and has been quite game in all of his 7 lifetime races, with the exception of his lone attempt as early speed in the Del Mar Futurity last September.  I think he’s got a class advantage over many of his rivals for place and show, having run well in the Sunshine Million Dash and the Eddie Logan before winning against N1X runners at the allowance level  last time out.  The question I have for Kelly is what kind of a pace he’ll get to run at today?

Feisty Sauces would appear to be the controlling speed of the race, and as lone speed warrants a big shot to hit the board.  The morning line odds of 10/1 offer ample value for such a play, and this is another who has far from humiliated himself against the likes of Chocolate Candy and Axel Foley.  The questions he’ll have to face relate to the distance (having faded in the Cal Derby) and whether he will be a bit rusty having been off for two months.   Trainer Darrell Vienna has hit off such layoffs fairly well before, and now you get D-Flo in the saddle again.  I could see this one running big for 2nd.  He might be gasping for the wire though. 

New Bay is a very interesting and improving runner for the Richard Mandella barn.  Trouble is, he’s rumored to be a potential scratch, which would make this race even less appealing to play.  Assuming he does run, the sprinter looks like he might handle the stretch out just fine, and if he does he’s a threat here.  That will be the obvious question though.  He also could be more forwardly placed in this route attempt, which could be trouble for Feisty Sauces if that one tries to get too cozy on the lead.

Jeranimo gets the award for the most bizarre name of the field, at least from a spelling standpoint.   I think he’s playable underneath, but do note that his last effort at today’s distance was a full 2 seconds and change slower than Pioneer of the Nile’s win in the ‘Lewis.   Just sayin’ .  

Shafted should turn in an improved performance.  I like the way he’s outclassed lesser quality horses (although he’s been severely trounced by the likes of Pioneer of the Nile and Patena.  He is a Mineshaft (A.P.Indy) colt with good bloodlines.  It’s just a matter of which version of him shows up?  He’s hit or miss all the way.  Catch him on a hit day and he could bring some value to the tote board.  Catch him on a miss day and  he’s not even close.   It is interesting that he’s never had a clean trip.  There’s always been some sort of trouble, usually at the start of the race.  He’s one who could put it all together still.  Certainly he has a shot for a minor award against this field.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #2 Pioneer of the Nile
  • $.10 Superfecta: 2/3,6,7/3,4,6,7/1,3,4,5,6,7 ($3.60)

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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pioneer of the Nile, Santa Anita

Road to the Roses stable

11 02 2009

The past few nights have been rather hectic as I’ve raced home from work and immersed myself in the yearly right of passage that is making my stable selections for the Road to the Roses fantasy challenge.  Ten horses, 2 trainers, and 2 jockeys – that’s what you pick.  You amass points by finishing in the money in major prep races over the better part of 3 months.  I can’t say I’ve had a lot of success with it, but I’m learning from my past and trying out new things in an effort to win the top glory that comes with having a winning stable.

I’ve named mine “The Aspiring Horseplayer” so that it’s connected with this blog.   Last year I believe I was “Stafford Stables”, but those responsible for the nightmare that turned into late in the challenge have been sacked (and those responsible for sacking those who have been sacked have also been sacked, and so on).  I started out well, but in the end was way too California heavy in ’08, with Colonel John, Georgie Boy, El Gato Malo, and Gayego.  No way I’m making that mistake this year.

Let’s start with the difficult part.  I’m not taking the horse that I believe would win the Derby if it were run today:  Vineyard Haven.   I know that seems counter intuitive, but there’s a solid strategic reason for this.  He’s prepping in Dubai at the moment, and probably won’t get his first opportunity to earn points for my stable until the UAE Derby on 3/28.  That is a Grade 2 (worth 12 points for a win), but there should be a “supplemental draft” after the first month of the contest, granting me a chance to swipe him after 3/14 as one of up to 3 additional runners I can add to my stable.   I’ll take the wait and see approach for now as I’ll need the potential for points from those limited stable positions.

I’m also not taking Stardom Bound, despite being a fairly big “Stardom Bound guy.”  I think the world of her, but the fact that she’ll be taking on the likes of Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse, and only IF she stays on the Derby trail (which is by no means a foregone conclusion) means that I”ll have to pass on her for now as well.

The top 5 picks for the stable are essentially a player’s “Simon Peter” – the rock, the foundation upon which the rest of the franchise is built.  For my top five, I’m taking Old Fashioned, Pioneer of the Nile, Friesan Fire,  Patena, and Captain Candyman Can.  I did not arrive at this grouping without much debate, however.   The first three were “no brainers” in my opinion, especially with Old Fashioned pointed towards a very reachable win right out of the gate in the Southwest Stakes on Saturday.  Likewise Pioneer of the Nile seems pointed now towards the San Felipe on 3/14 (just before the supplemental draft period) and the Santa Anita Derby after that.   Friesan Fire has simply done nothing wrong and everything right.  Patena and  Captain Candyman Can are risks though.  Patena might be Rick Dutrow and IEAH’s “A horse” judging from recent comments.  That said, he’s still a largely unknown and unproven colt.  Captain Candyman Can could be a one turn horse, but then again the Fountain of Youth has been shortened in distance, so keep that in mind. 

  • Old Fashioned (G3 S.West Stakes 2/14)
  • Pioneer of the Nile (G2 San Felipe 3/14)
  • Friesan Fire (G2 LA Derby 3/14)
  • Captain Candyman Can (G2 FOY 2/28)
  • Patena (G2 LA Derby 3/14)

The name of this game is about racking up points and keeping as many runners with real chances of finding the winners circle each week as you can.  I mentioned that I wasn’t covering as many California runners, and that I wasn’t going to play Stardom Bound (at least not yet).  You may notice from below that another name is missing.  The Pamplemousse.  Why?  Well , for starters he’s probably really only a safe play as of right now for the G3 Sham on 2/28.  While that would be some nice early points to rack up, I’m not sure how much of a threat he’d be against Pioneer and Stardom Bound if he tried the SA Derby.  Besides, like I said, I’m going CA light this year.

The bottom of my stable is a place to take some shots.  You don’t want to get too cray here as you’ll need to depend on most (if not all) of the horses you select, but things get interesting when you get to this level of the rankings.  Haynesfield sticks out as an obvious play for the NY preps (G3 Gotham, G1 Wood Memorial), but he’s probably not the lock folks think he is.  I think you have to cover him, as he’s been very impressive beating suspect quality, but I don’t think you can stand on him alone for those preps, and the Wood is a G1 you definitely want to hit.  For that reason, I’m taking Mr. Fantasy as well.  He’s got two impressive Beyers and looks like a horse that could give Haynesfield fits as the distances continue to challenge the talented Speightstown colt.   As if that weren’t enough, I’m also going to cover the new edition to Rick Dutrow’s barn, Danger to Society.  Originally I was not high on this guy, but I’m taking the advice of author and journalist Richard Eng, who won this contest a few years ago.  If he’s good enough for him to take a stand on, he’s good enough for me.  Coincidentally, another friend of this site, Cindy Pierson-Dulay, is also listed as one of the pros.  I’ve got to admit, it feels pretty cool when folks listed as pros are people you’ve actually met and talked about horse racing with.  Hats off to each of them.

I’ll round out my stable with the impressive runner up finisher Flying Pegasus, who looks like a horse that will improve greatly next out with a more favorable post position.  I may be overrating this guy, but if so it would appear to be a mistake that many are making.  He’s probably(along with Patena) the biggest “buzz” horse at the moment I’m seeing whispered in Facebook discussions and horse racing boards.  We’ll see.  I’ll take a stab with my 9th slot on him since he is pointing to either the Fountain of Youth or Louisiana Derby (or perhaps the Rebel).  My last slot will go to Hello Broadway, who but for what in my opinion was a far from perfect ride from Edgar Prado, might have defeated Captain Candyman Can in the Hutcheson.  I’m willing to give him another try as he seemed a worth favorite before fading late in the stretch.

  • Haynesfield (G3 Gotham 3/7)
  • Mr. Fantasy (G3 Gotham 3/7)
  • Danger to Society (G3 Gotham 3/7)
  • Flying Pegasus (?)
  • Hello Broadway (?)

I’m taking Rick Dutrow and Larry Jones as my trainers.  Strange, I know, for someone who isn’t the biggest Dutrow fan in the world, but the man seems loaded with talent this year.  Ditto for Larry Jones, who figures to go out on top with his first Derby win.  If there’s a sense of justice in the universe for what befell the man last year, he’ll be the champion this year. 

Jockey wise I’m going with Gabriel Saez and Garrett Gomez.  Saez because I feel when teamed up with Larry Jones makes the most formidable tandem in the country with 3-year-olds, and Go-Go  because, well, he’s Garrett Gomez.  Need I really say more?

Hopefully you are all playing along as well.  If you’re interested in joining the TBA League, contact Handride and he’ll send you the activation code.  Or you could join our small, but growing Facebook group.  Yes, we have a presence on Facebook.  Just head to our homepage and follow the links to the Facebook group.  I can picture myself dancing like Dr. Evil when I say that.  “What?  I’m hip. I’m cool.”    :)


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Categories : Fantasy Horse Racing, Horse Racing News, TBA

Pioneer of the Nile wins a thriller in the CashCall Futurity

20 12 2008

Pioneer of the Nile, a promising 2-year-old son of Empire Maker, held off a game challenge from I Want Revenge in a thrilling stretch duel to win the 2008 CashCall Futurity Stakes at Hollywood Park. 

Sent off as the post time favorite, Pioneer of the Nile tracked quick early fractions set by Frumious and Ventana to strike the front in the stretch.  I Want Revenge weaved through horses to come on strong in the stretch, drawing eyeball to eyeball with Pioneer of the Nile as they raced to the wire.  In the end, Pioneer of the Nile was able to turn away I Want Revenge by the slimmest of margins, prevailing by a head.

The win was so close that trainer Bob Baffert seemed uncertain at first on the TVG feed.  When it became official, the win marked a return to the winner’s circle with owner Ahmed Zayat, who had previously removed his horses from Baffert’s care in February. 

Baffert has now trained 4 CashCall winners, with Pioneer of the Nile joining previous winners Point Given (2000), Captain Steve (1998), and Real Quiet (1997).  Only time will tell if  Pioneer of the Nile joins the ranks of early Derby contenders being whispered on the lips of horseplayers across the nation.  It’s always going to be tough to decipher how a strong performance on synthetics will translate onto dirt (and for this I suggest everyone pick up a copy of Bill Finley’s wonderful “Betting Synthetic Surfaces“).

One thing is certain, at least for the California circuit, it would seem to be wise to pay attention to where the top 3 finishers of this race return; Pioneer of the Nile, I Want Revenge, and Chocolate Candy – as they were all moving well late and had the look of future winners about them.

If you got a chance to see it, that was exactly the kind of race that horse racing fans love.  It had everything. Quick early start, a gutty stretch battle between to fierce competitors…there’s really nothing else we could ask for. 

Here’s to a wonderful ride by Garrett Gomez on Pioneer of the Nile and an equally gutsy performance by I Want Revenge and jockey Joe Talamo.


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Categories : Hollywood Park, Horse Racing News


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