Shackleford Not Rusty in Preakness Victory

22 05 2011

“There he is – go up and see him!”

These were the words of encouragement I spoke to my wife on Thursday morning at Pimlico when we arrived to see the final Preakness workouts.  ”He”, of course, referred to her favorite 3-year-old in training, Shackleford, who had turned for home in the Derby in what seemed to be excellent shape after setting amazingly slow early fractions.  However, as we all know, it simply was not meant to be  for Shackleford and his supporters on the first Saturday in May.  Instead the final few hundred yards of Churchill stretch were to be all about Animal Kingdom.  As attention shifted to Baltimore, hardly anyone gave the front-running colt as much as a puncher’s chance.

Yet there he was this week looking regal as ever coming back from his gallop.  The son of Forestry strikes quite the figure on the track with his gorgeous chestnut coat.  As they brought him passed the stands, I blurted out somewhat awkwardly “Hey Shack – here’s your biggest fan!” while gesturing emphatically to my wife.  We snapped what photos we could while she commented on what a beautiful horse he was.   He had looked amazing in the Churchill paddock as well – at least as far as we could tell from the NBC broadcast in the comfort of our living room – but seeing him up close took things to a whole new level and left her somewhat breathless.

Shackleford working out on Thursday morning at Pimlico prior to his victory in the 2011 Preakness.

Later that morning she was able to speak with trainer Dale Romans and recount her Kentucky Derby experience.  When Shackleford cut that corner and came into the stretch, she had lept to her feet and began screaming her rear-end off.  Then she was forced to watch in dignified humility as the horse her husband was cheering for sailed passed her longshot in deep stretch.  ”My husband’s horse beat me in the Derby – I need you guys to get him this time around!” she joked to Dale as he signed a track program.  Upon returning from her encounter she promptly declared that Shack was going to be her Preakness pick and the only horse she would bet on to win.

Autograph of Dale Romans - trainer of 2011 Preakness champion Shackleford

“No way!” I scoffed.  “Why throw your money away like that?”

After all, If the horse couldn’t win after those Derby fractions, what chance would he have against a hotter pace in the Preakness?  Such considerations were trivial in her eyes.  Forget all the handicapping, the fractional times, and the supposed knowledge of the sport.  Sometimes it pays to have blind faith.  All that mattered to her was that she had found a horse to cheer for and believed in her heart of hearts actually had a chance.  In truth she did have a minor handicapping angle – repetitively insisting that the shorter distance of the Preakness would be more to Shackleford’s liking than it would Animal Kingdom’s – but it was the heart she was speaking with more than the mind (she had originally liked the horse because it reminded her of the alter ego of the character Dale Gribble, aka Rusty Shackleford, in the cartoon King of the Hill).

And it was the heart she was cheering with as her boy once again cut the corner and turned for home in the Preakness on Saturday.  At first glance I thought he was going to be swept passed by several horses yet again, but then he found more; picking ‘em up and putting ‘em down with determined effort.  My eyesight isn’t what it used to be when watching the track monitors, and it took me sometime in the confusion of the infield to figure out that the horse racing after him in the center of the track was my boy, Animal Kingdom.  Suddenly our voices rose as the excitement reached fever pitch.  Me screaming for my horse, and she for hers.  Down the stretch and into history.

If there’s one thing I have learned over the years following this game, it’s that things are cyclical – even if the connection is obfuscated at first glance.  It had been 4 years ago that we confidently strode into the Grandstands to see my beloved Curlin upset the Kentucky Derby winner.   Two years prior we had danced with joy near the winner’s circle as her beloved Rachel Alexandra held off another Derby winner (Mine That Bird) at the wire.  The in between years had been rather “meh” for us, as we were not fans of Big Brown or his trainer, Rick Dutrow (thanks to the absurd “paper rivalry” between he and Curlin), and hadn’t really felt an affinity with any of the 3-year-olds in last year’s crop once my boy Odysseus went down.

Had I been paying closer attention to that form cycle of on-off-on Preakness emotions, I may have walked out of the track with a lot more money in my pockets.  Paying greater attention to Shackleford himself would’ve done even greater good.

All week long my wife was subjected to the musings of everyone with a voice (including me) about what the horse couldn’t do.  She took it all in stride with dignified grace and quiet confidence.  All she cared about was what he could do.  For my part, I went into the race believing, as I always do, that the best 3-year-old wins the Preakness.   I believe strongly that recent history invites such a conclusion.  I just couldn’t see how Shackleford could be that horse?   Looking back at that Derby defeat, I think I do see it now.  The inside running lanes at Churchill may have simply been dead that weekend, and to the horse’s credit he did initially repel a very big move by Nehro before finally surrendering in deep stretch to the top 3 finishers.

Nobody was getting passed Shackleford today though.  In my heart I’ll always believe the Animal would’ve reeled him in with another few hundred yards, but such arguments are trivial.  The only thing that matters now is that for the rest of our lives, whenever we raise our Preakness glasses at Pimlico for a sip of  tasty Black Eyed Susans – there he will be.  Shackleford – enshrined along with the names of some of the greatest race horses to have ever lived.

He did it, babe.  I’ll be damned, but he did it.


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Categories : Animal Kingdom, Handicapping Selections, Pimlico, Preakness, Shackleford, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

How One Moment Can Captivate a Nation

25 06 2010

The story line runs near and dear to any racing fan’s heart.  A sport that has been long cherished and held in high regard around the world struggling to find relevance on the national stage here in the U.S.  Fans of the sport long feeling somewhat shunned and mocked by the general populace.  Only once every few years does even the prospect of having a chance to claim a sliver of the spotlight present itself – and only then when something truly remarkable is deemed imminent.

Earlier this week in South Africa, just such a moment occurred when Landon Donovan nailed the game winner against Algeria, propelling the U.S. World Cup team to the knockout portion of the tournament in the  round of 16.

I’ll spare the obvious Miracle on ice comparisons – if only because Algerian soccer is not quite the enemy that Soviet hockey was.  Certainly the moment invokes memories of the passion and excitement coursing through the land each time the U.S. drove a puck into the Russian net.

The sudden surge of interest and enthusiasm in the happenings of a sport long dismissed by Americans as “boring”, and (in so many words) “unmanly” has caught some of guard.  Not me.

We’ve been saying this for years.  The reason people love sport –  all sport – is because deep down in our hearts we are fascinated by watching the human spirit (or in our case the equine spirit) overcome adversity.  Every sport – given the right venue – is capable of captivating the people’s attention.  It just takes the right combination of accessibility, relevance, and of course heart-stopping dramatic moments.

When the U.S. began their World Cup campaign, they faced off against mighty England on a Saturday afternoon.  The internet was ablaze with excitement.  Twitter even went to so far as to add nifty little icons if you typed in a country’s name or the phrase  ”#worldcup”  into a message.  The match earned a 7.6 rating, whereas the longer broadcast that included pre-game coverage earned a 6.1 rating (making it the 5th highest rated FIFA broadcast since 1994).

The most viewed moment in American soccer history continues to be the shirtless romp of Brandi Chastain and Team USA beating China in the 1997 Women’s WC Final.  A whopping 18 million viewers tuned in for that epic moment – proving what horse racing fans have known ever since our leading ladies Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra burst onto the scene:  we may think of sports as being “manly” – but there might be something to this whole “girl power” thing after all.

What about that goal-heard-round-the-world by Landon Donovan that propelled the U.S. to the next round and elicited the response across the nation captured above?  While being dubbed the “most viewed soccer telecast in U.S. history” (despite the obvious math problems when compared to the Brandi Chastain moment above), the match drew just a 4.6  rating – reaching perhaps 6 million viewers overall.

Contrast that with what was generally considered a rather down year for the Triple Crown season in thoroughbred racing.  The Preakness stakes – won by Lookin at Lucky over Kentucky Derby champion Super Saver - earned 8.4 million viewers.  If the sources I’ve linked to are to be trusted, that means that a rather nondescript 2010 rendition of the Preakness still earned over 2 million more viewers than the greatest and “most watched” soccer moment in a generation within the U.S.  I find that fascinating given the general “racing is dead” talk and the ubiquitous, inescapable references to the World Cup everywhere one turns.

Now, it must be said – the U.S. match against Algeria came on a weekday morning – not exactly prime time television – which makes their ratings all the more astounding.  Most of racings largest moments happen on a Saturday – which tends to draw increased viewership (there’s a reason the NFL targeted Sunday for their main “game day”).  No doubt we’ll be looking at another huge draw for soccer when the U.S. takes on Ghana on Saturday.

What about when times are good for racing?   When Rachel Alexandra won the Preakness in 2009 – a race in which the favorite was not the Kentucky Derby champion (Mine That Bird), but rather a filly attempting to become the first of her kind in decades to prevail in the middle jewel of the Triple Crown - it earned a 7.9 rating (and reportedly 10.9 million viewers) – the second highest rating for the Preakness broadcast in almost 20 years.  Smarty Jones set the bar even higher back in 1994, earning a 9.4 rating.

Perhaps we should not be so fast to throw in the towel and trumpet the demise of racing?  I’m sure folks affiliated with FIFA are euphoric and will look to capitalize on their success.  While the popularity of thoroughbred racing is indeed declining as the decades march on, we must remember that there is indeed a “base” or “core” from which to build upon for the future.  Pessimism will get us nowhere.

As a sport, soccer has progressed with a definitive goal in mind over the last two decades – to aggressively carve out a slice of relevance and to earn a shot at capturing the attention of the nation.  They’ve dedicated themselves to securing a new generation of fans through efforts like youth soccer, and have embraced popular mediums like video gaming to drum up interest, familiarity, and enthusiasm (as anyone who has played the outstanding FIFA franchise games can attest).

And note – while it takes quite a bit of effort to nurture a growing following, you don’t even need ALL the stars to align themselves – as our matches in the World Cup have been marred by 90 minute scoring droughts, controversial decisions from officials, and those blasted, damnable vuvuzelas.

We’ve been over all of this before, of course – as each time the Olympics come around I find myself shouting at the television screen about competitions I know next to nothing about (I’m not a pretty sight in ice skates – nor in track and field uniforms).  The other evening my wife and I watched with amusement as our 1-year-old bellowed unintelligible yells of defiance directed towards the ineptness and futility of the Baltimore Orioles.  Obviously it’s a part of who we are from very early on in our development.  It’s as if our brains are firing up to declare: “something is happening – something exciting – I want to have a vested interest in this!”

Make no mistake – soccer is experiencing a surge in popularity the likes of which it has never seen in this nation.  Everyone I spoke with at work this week tended to have wishes for the team in their hearts, on their lips, and in their minds. Only time will tell if the attention is fleeting or if it has real  staying power.  We in thoroughbred racing no all too well about fleeting glory.  One factor that will no doubt play a key role is how the U.S. performs against Ghana on Saturday, and then, God-willing, against any future opponents they may face.  A strong run could propel the sport to a sustained (or semi-sustained) golden age of popularity.

Likewise – with some improved foresight, a bit of luck, and the courage to aggressively carve out our own niche audience and build for the future – we might find ourselves thrust back into the national spotlight one day-  and hopefully for all the RIGHT reasons.


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Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta

Lookin at Lucky Gets His Preak On

16 05 2010

As the field turned for home in Preakness 135 on Saturday afternoon at Pimlico, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert got exactly what he was looking for – a little luck.  On Thursday morning at the annual Alibi breakfast, Baffert had declared that his only desire was to see Lookin at Lucky “have a chance” turning for home.  As if sending us all an omen of what was to come, Baffert also joked around while being interviewed during an awkward moment when he noticed that the cameras were focused on the back of his white-haired head.  Little did we know that just a short while later the competition would be staring at the back of his Eclipse Award winning colt as the field hit the wire.

Full Results Chart for the 2010 Preakness from Equibase.

Whether it was the highly publicized jockey switch from Garrett Gomez to Martin Garcia, a better post position, or perhaps just a tad of mercy from the racing gods up above on high is anyone’s guess.  No matter which way you slice it, ‘Lucky has firmly entrenched himself atop the 3-year-old division, knocking off Kentucky Derby champion Super Saver in convincing style.  Despite jockey Calvin Borel’s boasts that Super Saver would win the Triple Crown, the Derby champion could fare no better than 8th – which winds up as the worst finish of a Derby winner in the Preakness since 1970 when Dust Commander was dusted and finished 9th.  Of course, Barbaro’s breakdown still stands as the worst nightmare suffered by a Derby champion in the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown, but thankfully we appear to have avoided the injury bug during this renewal.

It’s amazing how fast the pendulum of opinion in racing can swing in an extremely short amount of time.  Two weeks before the 2010 Kentucky Derby, Lookin’ at Lucky was thought of as a “stand out” amongst the 3-year-old division by many racing fans. The colt had encountered trouble in the Santa Anita Derby and fought back for 3rd when many horses would’ve quit, and conventional wisdom held that with a better trip in the Derby, he’d find a way to prove he was the most talented 3-year-old in racing. Then came the debacle of his horrific Derby trip, in which he was essentially knocked out of contention before the 1st turn.

Headed into the Preakness, the racing world was divided into two camps.  One thought Super Saver was so far superior that he could not be caught, even on Lucky’s best day.  The other thought the colt still deserved a shot and that if he ever got into the stretch without encountering trouble would show the world who he was.  I noted in several discussions that this felt quite a bit like 2007 with Curlin and Street Sense, and that though I did feel Super Saver deserved to be favored and given a slightly better chance that I couldn’t help but feel for that underdog role of Lucky, as many of the same angles seemed present this year.

With just a few minutes to post, the odds on the tote board reflected this close division amongst fans, with both colts showing 2/1 odds in the win pool. Super Saver was slightly favored and wound up going off as such at 9/5, but the Lucky faithful seemed to be growing by the minute.  When asked, I advised all listening that I was playing them both, as I envisioned them hitting the wire essentially together with perhaps the bob of a head being the difference of separation.

I can only imagine that for his diehard fans the moment Lucky turned for home was eerily reminiscent of my own experience in 2007 when I was there to cheer home Curlin.  You KNEW he had what Baffert wanted – a chance – and you knew it was going to take everything he had.  Could he summon the will power necessary to chase down the horse in front of him, or would another opportunity to cement his greatness slip passed him?  Despite having no personal affinity either way (my favorite 3-year-olds Odysseus, Eskendereya, and Endorsement all having been sidelined with injuries), I found myself subconsciously willing the horse on.  I guess there’s that little part of all of us that wants to see grit, hard work, and sheer determination justly rewarded.

When Lucky crossed the wire in 1:55.47, he did so by the slimmest margin since Curlin had nosed Street Sense and Calvin Borel in 2007.  The victory also tied Bob Baffert with D. Wayne Lukas for active trainers with the most Preakness victories (5). For Baffert, it was the first since 2002 with War Emblem.  Meanwhile, trainer Todd Pletcher, who had only two weeks ago finally got the 0-for-24 Kentucky Derby monkey off his back, is now 0-for-6 in the Preakness.

Of course, some will view the result of the race with a bit of remorse, as Lucky’s victory ensures the continued Triple Crown drought that has plagued the sport since Affirmed took home the coveted honor in 1978.  If there’s a big loser from the day’s events – it’s probably the folks at NYRA at Belmont Race Track.  By Sunday morning news was confirmed that neither the Kentucky Derby or Preakness winners would be heading to the Belmont on June 5th – assuring an anti-climatic aura of deflated excitement from what might have been had either Super Saver prevailed or one (or both) of the champions this year decided to make the trip.

For both horses though, the decision makes sense.  Super Saver just didn’t seem his usual self.  Pletcher and Borel commented that they thought the 2 weeks between the Derby and Preakness were too short for him. Of course, it would’ve been nice to have heard the information earlier in the week that NBC relayed as the field was being loaded into the gate that Super Saver had lost weight in between the two races, but I digress.  For Lucky the move is equally sensible, as he’s shipped all over the nation and battled ferociously everywhere he’s been.  A rest has been earned, and there’s no reason to push the colt further now that he’s validated his 2-year-old champion status.

Arguably the most awkward moment of the entire Preakness was the scene near the winner’s circle as the Baffert clan attempted to storm the old clubhouse for the requisite photo opportunity.  Security officials and Bob Baffert could be seen shouting and even using some physical force to push or pull people, sometimes in opposite directions at the same time, as split-second decisions were made as to who was allowed entrance and who had to remain outside.

Oddly enough, Baffert went into the fray several times whilst carrying his son Bode.  Former Vikings coach Mike Tice was amongst those allowed in.  I guess nobody wanted to squabble with a former NFL player.  Personally I should’ve seen the omens as Tice, upon arriving at Pimlico, passed by me with a crowd of Lookin at Lucky’s connections from which several loud “Roll Tide!!!’ cheers erupted at the sight of my “lucky” Bama hat.

Shoulda known, huh?

The surprise of the Preakness has to be considered First Dude.  Congratulations if you successfully identified him as a likely pace candidate.  For some reason I thought he’d be in more of a stalking position in the early going, and looking back I can already see the error of my ways.  The son of Stephen Got Even was widely dismissed at 24/1 (though I’m sure we’ll now be swamped by the Monday Morning quarterbacks all insisting they had him, despite the fact that only a few brave souls touted the horse publicly – including ESPN’s AWESOME Claire Novak - to whom I give much credit and respect for fantastic coverage of the Derby and Preakness), but fought on gamely for a determined second place finish.  When the opening half mile clicked off in :46.47, I assumed he’d be fading badly at the wire, but this was not the case at all.  ’Dude nearly stole the entire race if not for ‘Lucky’s heart and determination.

With the major players out of the Belmont, the possibility would seem to exist for a rather interesting race being setup behind a front running First Dude, looking to once again steal the race on the lead ala Da’ Tara in 2008, and Ice Box, the dead-late closer that was flying at Super Saver late in the Kentucky Derby.  It’s just a shame that most of America won’t be watching due to the lack of a Triple Crown hopeful.  That’s okay though – they never seem to know what they’re missing…and maybe there’s something special about the spectacle of horse racing being our own little secret wonder of a sport.  Still, I hope that at least some of the fans who beheld their first horse race during the Derby or the Preakness will stick around and become larger fans of the sport.  What they saw was just the tip of the iceberg.

On a personal note, I wish to thank the folks from CBS Radio and the Leffler Agency for having me on-site for handicapping assistance.  Ironically, I was positioned just across from our good friend Gary Quill – who was providing similar assistance to another group of distinguished guests.  We had a blast – and hopefully helped create a few new fans of the game.  My top 3 picks that “couldn’t lose” all came home on top, even if they were heavy chalk (Comedero, Blame, and Rainbow View), and technically I can add NorthPoint Costas to that mix as well.  The two horses we didn’t have that would’ve made for a day of EPIC proportions were Taqarub in the Maryland Sprint (pace handicapping having killed me again), and of course Strike A Deal in the Dixie – which continues to be my nemesis since that infamous photo of Amy and I being knocked from the 2008 Pick Six by Pays to Dream first surfaced.

The memory that will stay with me forever actually came during Rainbow View’s victory in the Gallorette.  Some of our hosts were “lucky” enough to witness a classic “Kevin moment” as she turned for home.  You may recall that I had the honor of covering the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic last fall for the NTRA?  Rainbow View was my pick in that race and, despite losing, the filly who most dearly stole my heart.  In deep stretch she appeared to be in trouble, but true to her class and style, she thundered home in that final furlong to beat Quiet Meadow by a half-length – all the while with me running amok along the turf rail shouting at the top of my lungs “C’mon Rainbow!!! C’mon baby girl!!!! Show ‘em who you are!!!”


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Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Lookin at Lucky, Pimlico, Preakness, Super Saver, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Preakness Selections

14 05 2010

The Woodland Vase - trophy of the Preakness Stakes

Preakness 135 – the day is FINALLY upon us.  After a fairly brutal afternoon at Pimlico on Friday (due to the heat, my lousy selections, and of course the spill in the Black Eyed Susan) – it’s time to make amends and “get our Preak on” with the selections.  As a much more learned man than I once opined (the great Master of Ceremonies himself – Hammer): It’s time to turn this mutha out!

We’ll focus on the major stakes races on the day, starting with the 6th (The Chick Lang Stakes).  You’re on your own for the early races – which I generally don’t do that well on anyway.  Overall, I’ll say that I though Friday was a much better day to play “beat the favorite” and that several of the favorites on Saturday’s card look more formidable – which of course means the exact opposite will probably happen, so wager accordingly!

Race 6 – Grade 3 Chick Lang Stakes – 6 Furlongs

The race named for the legendary “Mr. Preakness” himself, the late, great Chick Lang kicks off the major racing action for the day.  It’s not a very big field, so expect this to be a rather bland wagering opportunity.

  • #3 Comedero (7/5) – Worthy favorite is 6 for 6 sprinting.  His only loss came trying to go 1 Mile back in December. Respect.
  • #4 Quiet Invader (5/2) – Top challenger defeated Hurricane Ike last out.  If not for a freak injury earlier this week, Hurricane Ike would’ve been a popular betting interest in the Preakness.
  • #5 Latigo Shore (5/1) – Son of Malibu Moon has been steadied twice in 3 lifetime races.  His only clean trip he won for fun against Maidens.  Expect improvement.

 

Race 7 – The James W. Murphy Stakes – 1 Mile (Turf)
The JW Murphy came up a fairly tough race to decipher. Several contenders are making their first turf start – so quite literally anything can (and likely will) happen. I focused on those with turf experience, though the “dirt” horses are bound to offer better value on the tote board.

  • #11 Thunder Brew (5/1) – Exits back to back scores against softer competition.  Is also 2 for 2 at the mile distance.
  • #1 Cat Park (4/1) – Part of coupled entry for trainer Graham Motion that also includes #1A Vamos a Ver.  Was dusted by Paddy O’Prado and Dean’s Kitten 2 races back.  On his best stuff he makes sense here.
  • #2 Beau Choix (5/1) – No excuse for getting “caught” in last race.  Working like he wants to make amends.

 

Race 8 – Grade 3 William Donald Schaefer Stakes – 1 1/16 Miles
I joke that this race was almost changed to the Sheila Dixon stakes.  It’s a Baltimore thing.

  • #7 Blame (8/5) – Makes first start of 2010 campaign, but could be sitting on a big race.
  • #3 Understatement (2/1) – The most accomplished of the early-speed types in this race.  Seems to excel at this distance – though those wins all came at Aqueduct.
  • #1 Bullsbay (10/1) – May have lost a step, but he should get a solid pace to run at.  Never count a son of Tiznow out of any fight.

 

Race 9 – Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
I counted 5 runners here that I thought had a decent shot to win.  In addition to the selections listed below, #5 Quiet Meadow (10/1) and #2 Love’s Blush (20/1) warrant some attention as well in my opinion.  That being said, I’m a fairly big Rainbow View fan.  I’m fond of the filly – and hope she shows up with her best stuff.  I don’t think she’s a lock though by any stretch of the imagination.

  • #4 Rainbow View (1/1) – Classy filly has run respectably against the likes of Goldikova and Sariska.  Should improve on 2nd start of most recent form cycle.
  • #8 Shared Account (6/1) – Cuts back in distance where her early speed running style could set her up nicely.
  • #7 Denomination (10/1) – Smart Strike filly may finally be figuring out U.S. turf racing.

 

Race 10 – Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap – 6 Furlongs
Looks like another tough renewal of the MD Sprint.  The race seems wide open as just about the entire field is capable on their best stuff.  Beyond the listed selections,#11 Half Metal Jacket is another I’d give serious consideration despite the outside post draw.  The 11 hole seemed to do quite well on Friday.  That probably had more to do with the horses than the post, but suffice to say you might not want to automatically toss the outside runners.

  • #1 Snapshot (3/1) Thought the son of Awesome Again rated the best shot in this field.  The horses who have beaten him lately (Warrior’s Reward and Custom for Carlos) are pretty tough customers.
  • #3 Roaring Lion (6/1) – I don’t know that he absolutely needs the lead, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt.
  • #7 Ravalo (5/1) – Should appreciate return to dirt surface after pedestrian effort on synthetics.

 

Race 11 – The Grade 2 Dixie – 1 1/8 Miles – Turf
Over the years, this race has been my nemesis.  I’m captured in a Cindy Pierson Dulay photo of the 2008 renewal as longshot Pays to Dream crossed the line and knocked me out of a Pick 6 wager that was singled on Big Brown in the Preakness.  Thus, it comes as no surprise that I think 6 of the 13 horses in this field (nearly 50%) are threats to win the race and will be spreading DEEP here on the exotics.  Outside of the picks listed below, I’ll also be thinking about #9 Rahystrada (6/1), #6 Picou (10/1), and #5 Forgotten Dynasty (10/1).

  • #4 Just As Well (3/1) – I went “Captain Obvious” with the top selection as I thought this son of A.P. Indy might be the best horse in the field.   He hasn’t won since last July, but he’s faced the likes of Vodka, Champs Elysees, and Gio Ponti in that stretch.  He should find this field easier – with “should” being the operative term.
  • #2 Grassy (5/1) – A very well regarded son of El Prado (same sire as Paddy O’Prado) that just missed last out.  Could be ready to improve in 2nd start this year.
  • #13 Nicanor (8/1) – Forget those Preakness connections with Grassy I just mentioned…this here is Barbaro’s little brother!  He’s got some speed too, which he’ll likely have to flash from the 13 hole.  Even so he may need some angels on his withers when they enter deep stretch – but what a story it would be if pulled it off?

 

Race 12 – The 135th Preakness Stakes – 1 3/16 Miles
Here we go folks, the reason we are all here.  Will Super Saver march on to the Belmont with a pair of Triple Crown jewels in his pocket or will a rival jump up and snatch victory from Calvin Borel at the wire the way Curlin did in 2007?  We’ve already posted an initial “get to know the Preakness contenders” bit, so I’ll spare you the full field rundown.

Ultimately, I think 4 horses make logical win contenders here.  Obviously there’s Super Saver – that’s a no brainer.   Lookin at Lucky “should” get a better trip and has a chance to be right there at the wire.  Paddy O’Prado would be no surprise either – and by all accounts he’s looked well since arriving (just as he did at Churchill Downs 2 weeks ago).  Lastly, there’s Caracortado – who is becoming the “wiseguy’ horse of this Preakness.

As for the rest of the field, while conventional wisdom maintains that you focus only on horses that have run in the Kentucky Derby when searching for a Preakness winner (the only exceptions in recent memory being Rachel Alexandra in 2009, Bernardini in 2006, and Red Bullet in 2000), you might be interested to know how many times in the 13 renewals of the Preakness since 1997 in which a horse that did NOT run in the Kentucky Derby has finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd.  Check out page 7 of Derek Simon’s Preakness Betting Guide for what I feel is a telling illustration. If you’re looking for value horses to fill out the Exacta and Trifecta – be not afraid – recent history is on your side!

Caracortado would seem to be the logical “non-Derby starter” of this bunch to hit the board – but I’ll be honest and admit that I’m also keeping an eye on the odds for Yawanna Twist as well. Just a hunch – nothing more.  If anyone’s going to play the role of Macho Again from 2008 (the longshot who lit up the tote board under obvious favorite Big Brown), my gut says Yawanna Twist might be the one.

  • #8 Super Saver (5/2) – The Derby winner’s race to lose.   Has the tactical speed to prevail from either the lead or just off the early pace.
  • #7 Lookin at Lucky (3/1) – The time is now if he’s ever going to have his day.
  • #10 Paddy O’Prado (9/2) – Should be right next to Super Saver every step of the way. If the Derby winner gets beat, this horse will likely have a great deal to do with it.
  • #9 Caracortado (10/1) – “Scarface” has plenty of buzz around him.  Apparently he figures “another furlong, they’ll love me again.”
  • #5 Yawanna Twist (30/1) – My longshot bomber.  Light it up, baby.  Light up that tote board.  Evacuate the grandstand – we’re twisting on the dance floor!

Well folks – by the time this one goes official, the whole weekend will be a historical footnote.  Another memory quickly stuffed away and brought back only as a reference point for a particular story, or to illustrate a particular point.  Hopefully you’ve enjoyed yourself and spent some time living in the moment – and hopefully you’ve cashed a healthy amount of wagers along the way.

Now, readers, march away: and how thou pleasest, Preakness Gods, dispose the day!


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Categories : Caracortado, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Lookin at Lucky, Paddy O'Prado, Pimlico, Preakness, Super Saver, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Getting to Know the Preakness Contenders

10 05 2010

It’s time, folks.  Preak-week is officially here in Baltimore, meaning that  if you haven’t already done so, it’s time to officially get your Preak on.  With so much to do in so little time, let’s run down the list of contenders for Preakness 135.

  • Super Saver

As George C. Scott once opined in the approximate likeness of General George S. Patton: “America loves a winner!” Indeed we do, and here he is – your Derby winner, chicken dinner.  The talented son of Maria’s Mon galloped off into history under the confident guide of jockey Calvin Borel.  With the slightly shorter distance of the Preakness up next, his tactical speed should give him a clear advantage and make him the worthy favorite.  All signs point to a successful invasion of Baltimore.

  • Lookin at Lucky

Stop me when this sounds familiar.  A highly regarded son of Smart Strike contests for favoritism on the tote board on Derby morning, and then suffers a horrific trip that essentially eliminates him from contention.  He returns to the Preakness where he’s promptly given no chance to stage the upset against a seemingly dominant Derby champion, whose initials happen to be S.S., and his equally dominant jockey Calvin Borel.  Shades of 2007, anyone?  The only thing amiss is that Lucky happens to be the defending 2-year-old champion.  Perhaps the most unlucky horse in all of racing.  Anyone who watched his “trip from hell” in the Santa Anita Derby probably thought that was as bad as things could possibly get for Lucky.  Not so, unofortuately, as he was smashed by Stately Victor in the early going of the Derby.  The colt fought on for a 6th place ribbon that, all things considered, was better than he should’ve finished.  He’s shipped all over the nation so far in this campaign.  If he ever gets his day where the racing gods decide to show some mercy – he’s good enough to be right there at the wire.  Martin Garcia will be aboard for the Preakness.

  • Paddy O’Prado

In a Kentucky Derby FILLED with “wise guy” horses, this was perhaps the wisest of them all. The son of El Prado had been reportedly working very sharp for that effort on the first Saturday in May, and despite some wild weaving throughout the race, showed that he was clearly one of the top contenders.  On paper he didn’t look like that intimidating a dirt horse, but if he takes to the Pimlico surface at all like he did at Churchill Downs,  he’d be one to watch again.

  • Caracortado

I picture good ole “Scarface” in his stall two weekends ago watching the chaos of the Derby and remarking: “Do you know what a haza is, Mike (Machowsky)?  It’s a horse – who don’t run straight!” All he has in this world are his guts and his heart.  He began with 5 consecutive victories, entrenching himself as a weekly “Cris Carter” reference on our Derby watch lists.  However, the world was not his, and his empire collapsed around him with back to back losses (including the Santa Anita Derby).  He’s back now, and he’s ready to eat the competition for breakfast.  He also thinks girls like ice cream, but I digress.

  • Pleasant Prince

His connections were dreaming when they wrote this, so sue them if this goes astray.  When he woke up this morning coulda swore it was Derby day. Anyone with Eastern European ancestory already knows this, but as Pleasant Prince and Ice Box learned so well earlier in the year: “what a difference a nose can make!” The prince was nosed by Ice Box in the Florida Derby, who went on to explode for 2nd in the Kentucky Derby. Last out he was 3rd in the Derby Trial behind Hurricane Ike and Aikenite.  A nose, a nose, his kingdom for a nose!

  • Dublin

Big, beautiful chestnut will once again go to post for legendary Preakness trainer D. Wayne Lukas.  You know me – I’m a sucker for chestnuts, but I’m on the fence with this guy.  Each race he seems to unleash a fairly solid move – and then suddenly runs flat the rest of the way.  Then again, he is a son of Afleet Alex, and all one need do is remember the magic of the 2005 Preakness.  I’m expecting improvement this weekend.

  • Hurricane Ike

I like Ike.  The winner of the Derby Trial is trainer John Sadler’s first Preakness runner.  Took six tries to break his maiden but has shown marked improvement since, including a 2nd place finish two races back to Eightyfiveinafifty in the G3 Bayshore.  If he can handle the distance, he’s got a shot to make some noise this weekend.

  • Yawanna Twist

Earned some praise by finishing 2nd in the G3 Gotham to Awesome Act and the Grade 3 Illinois Derby to American Lion, but the performances of those two in the Kentucky Derby did little to flatter his chances.  He does have tricky Rick Dutrow in his corner though.  Stranger things have happened.

  • Jackson Bend

Routinely lampooned during the Derby prep season despite running his heart out for 2nd place finishes to Eskendereya on separate occassions.  So distance and class finally caught up with him in the Derby, where he finished 12th.  If you go back and watch that trip, considering how wide he was, that actually isn’t as bad as it seems.

  • First Dude

Became the dude that benefitted from the scratch of A Little Warm.  Hasn’t won since the end of January (1/30 at Gulfstream), but has finished 5th in the G1 Florida Derby and 3rd in the G1 Toyota Bluegrass.  Got a feeling he’s improving at the right time, but it would still be a surprise to see him in the winner’s circle.

  • Schoolyard Dreams

A victory by he or Super Saver and the legend of Odysseus will live on forever.  Tough to remember that this horse had that Tampa Bay Derby won, only to lose in the final stride.  The son of Stephen Got Even drilled 5 furlongs in :59.60 on 5/7.   Would need to improve to threaten.

  • Aikenite

We’ve seen this story before, haven’t we?  Stablemate to the Derby winner and perhaps another contender in Mission Impazible.  A forgotten horse totally written off and thought to have no chance?  He’s a one-run closing type that will need some help in front, but his coworkers ought to help with that.  His 2nd in the Derby Trial and 3rd in the Bluegrass suggests he’s moving forward.  I’m considering adding him into my exotic plays on Preakness day as I suspect he’ll be dismissed by most.

  • Northern Giant

On the plus side, he was 2nd to Dean’s Kitten in the G2 Lane’s End, and 3rd in the G2 Risen Star.  On the down side he was 9th in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.  No rider has been named yet, but the horse helps mark the 11th time D. Wayne Lukas has sent multiple entries to post in the Preakness.

So there you have ‘em, folks – you’re 2010 Preakness contenders. The obvious question for all is: Who do you like in the Preakness?

We’ll be back later in the week for a recap of the Alibi Breakfast at Pimlico on Thursday morning.  Selections for the Black Eyed Susan card on Friday will follow, and then our picks for all of the races on Preakness Day will be up Friday night and into Saturday.


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Categories : Caracortado, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Lookin at Lucky, Mission Impazible, Paddy O'Prado, Pimlico, Preakness, Super Saver, Triple Crown, Triple Crown Coverage

Super Saver Wins Kentucky Derby 136

2 05 2010

Another Derby is in the books and a new champion has been crowned.  Under the confident guide of jockey Calvin Borel, Super Saver, a 3-year-old son of Maria’s Mon out of the A.P. Indy mare Supercharger, has entered the history books as the winner of Kentucky Derby 136.

Yes – that Super Saver.  The same one who contended with Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy for tote board favoritism all throughout Derby weekend.  The same one who had been previously defeated by contenders Line of David, Homeboykris, and Discreetly Mine (twice) – not to mention a certain chestnut named Odysseus that we were fond of here.  The same Super Saver that lucky fan Glenn Fullerton supported with a $100,000 win wager he had earned in a contest from Churchill Downs (that’s him you see celebrating in the replay up above).

The win, of course, also broke the so-called “Derby curse” for trainer Todd Pletcher, who had been a seeming 0-for-infinity in recent years, despite saddling numerous horses each year.  Additionally, the folks over at Winstar got their first taste of Derby victory.  This once again should prove to racing fans that rules (no pun intended) were made to be broken.

As the field strode past in the post parade, I thought Super Saver looked feisty, but actually felt that Mission Impazible, Lookin at Lucky, and Awesome Act looked the best.  Stately Victor and the filly Devil May Care made decent impressions as well.  The odds on the tote board had been insane all weekend, with the public seemingly unsure of which direction to go.  People wondered whether the favorites should be tossed because of their post positions or included because of the “value” they were offering?  One horse remained constant on everyone’s lips though – Super Saver.

Earlier in the day, it had appeared that the rail was not the place a horse wanted to be in the stretch.  The rains at Churchill had seemingly made the center of the track prime real estate – but as the rain ceased and the crews worked tirelessly to improve conditions, that began to change.  Jockey Calvin Borel actually served notice two races before that the rail was open for business when he guided longshot Atta Boy Roy home to victory following a rail-riding trip in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs.  Anyone watching had to feel that it boded well for Super Saver’s chances.

When the gates swung open for the Kentucky Derby a few hours later, Conveyance and Sidney’s Candy shot out to the lead.  Going into the first turn, Mission Impazible and Lookin at Lucky both seemed to stop running.  Mission Impazible may have clipped heels early on, which no doubt had a negative impact on his trip.  Of course, he also bumped a bit with Devil May Care at the top of the stretch, so despite making a strong impression visually, the racing gods had clearly decided this would not be Mission Impazible’s day.

Lucky, the morning line favorite, once again found out that if it weren’t for bad luck, he’d have no luck at all.  According to jockey Garrett Gomez, he stopped running as they went into the turn after getting bounced around a bit.  There appeared to be some bumper-car action going on at this point in time.  It’s hard to tell for certain, but it looks like Paddy O’Prado came over a bit and forced Stately Victor into contact with Lucky.  Lucky would eventually improve his position, but he was not full of the kind of run many expected to see -  which makes me hope that the colt came out of this race healthy from a physical standpoint as he’s been through some awfully tough races this year.

The other morning line favorite, Sidney’s Candy, seemingly got used up from the 20 hole and the hot pace battle between he and Conveyance that resulted in a swift :46.16 opening half mile.  The son of Candy Ride simply had nothing in the tank when the stretch arrived and the real running began, eventually fading to 17th.

Calvin Borel and Super Saver used the well-patented “Bo-Rail” trip to stalk the hot pace until the field went into the turn, and then out finished the swerving Paddy O’Prado and the late flying Ice Box to the wire in 2:04.45.  Ice Box was 2 1/2 lengths back for place, while Paddy O’Prado needed all of the luck of the Irish he could muster to hang on for show.

Full results chart from Equibase.

Someone tell me why they shouldn’t have a lifesize statue of Borel at Churchill Downs?  Dude has now won 3 of the last 4 Kentucky Derbies with essentially the same move;  aboard Street Sense in 2007, Mine That Bird in 2009, and now Super Saver in 2010.

Looking ahead, I’m not sure anyone else was really running well late besides Super Saver, Ice Box, and Make Music For Me.  Paddy was tough enough to hang on for show – but as mentioned earlier, he may have been involved in some contact that helped knock other horses out of the race.  Obviously for Ice Box and Make Music For Me, they were aided by the swift early pace and were able to close into a tiring field – but where does this leave us for the Preakness two Saturdays from now?

My hunch is that if Ice Box’s connections decide to give him a 5 week rest for the Belmont (which seems logical given that he had 6 weeks off prior to the Derby), that Super Saver may be extremely difficult to beat.  If Borel’s past Derby winners are any indication, we know he’s a mortal lock for the Exacta (Street Sense and Mine That Bird having both finished 2nd in the Preakness in their respective tries).

It’ll be interesting to see who comes out of the Derby field and points to the Preakness.  If Lucky turns out healthy, Baffert might be inclined to ship.  Paddy O’ Prado would be interesting as well.  Another horse I’d like to see make his way to Baltimore, given the hearty performance he gave on the track, is the little fella Noble’s Promise.  For a moment there I thought he was making a powerful move as the field neared the top of the stretch – which was very surprising given the fact I had completely tossed him and thought he looked physically outmatched during the post parade.  I’d also like to see Mission Impazible and Stately Victor again.  Speaking of victors, can I add to that wishlist the Kentucky Oaks champion Blind Luck?

As for my own picks – we should probably just tuck them away in some far off dusty corner of the blogosphere and refer to them as “the picks we shall not speak of.” Awesome Act, my checkmark, finished 19th of 20 – marking the second consecutive year that my top choice has finished 19th out of 20 (Friesan Fire having earned similar distinction in 2009).

The monkey may be off Todd Pletcher’s back, but it is now firmly on mine.  I’m starting to feel a bit like D. Wayne Lukas.  Oh sure, I’ve cashed Derby wagers before – even did so this weekend on Super Saver – but I haven’t seen my top pick win the thing in years (going back to Barbaro in 2006).  Thankfully, my Preakness form is a mirror opposite, as we’ve had success every year since 2006 (go figure).  Who knows, with a little “luck”, hopefully that trend can continue.

For the now though, the million dollar question is whether Super Saver will triumph in the Preakness and complete the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown?  What say you?


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Categories : Awesome Act, Churchill Downs, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Lookin at Lucky, Odysseus, Paddy O'Prado, Sidney's Candy, Super Saver

The Great Debate for 2009 Horse of the Year

9 11 2009

No sooner had the synthetic dust settled in the wake of Zenyatta’s dominating performance in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita then the flame igniting the “Horse of the Year” debate was rekindled anew.  At question is how to properly award the top honor in U.S. racing when considering the miraculous campaigns of both Zenyatta and the 3-year-old filly sensation Rachel Alexandra. 

At this point in time, It’s become a question I’d really rather not address at all if it were not on the lips of nearly all I’ve spoken with these past few days.  My personal feeling being that this is still Zenyatta’s moment and that at least one full week should pass before we begin doing what horseplayers do – arguing incessantly with one another over our respective levels of insanity.  One can barely get so much as a word in about the Classic right now though without the issue coming up rather directly.  Emotions seem to be running high on both sides of the isle as the immediacy of a supreme moment still actively courses through the furiously beating hearts of racing fans the world over. 

In many ways, the pendulum seems to have swung almost completely.  Where once Rachel was considered (including by yours truly) a mortal lock to have already captured the honor as Horse of the Year by virtue of (most notably) her Preakness, Haskell, and Woodward victories, a new wind has begun to blow.  The much whispered “backlash” against team Rachel for having not attended the Breeders’ Cup had been one element of this change.  The true spark, however, is a bit more noble in nature and seems to stem from a desire to ensure that Zenyatta is properly awarded for the undefeated career she has blessed us with. 

As early as Saturday night, the battle lines were already being drawn.  Attending a post-Classic dinner with folks from the TVG Community (the organizers for which I owe a great deal of thanks to for a wonderful weekend, along with those at both the NTRA and the Breeders’ Cup), I was asked for my opinion, and admittedly I balked a bit – attempting to play the classical Switzerland “neutrality defense.”  Like many a smaller European nation state in the opening half the 20th century, I ultimately found myself being drawn, however unwittingly, into the great conflagration.

switzerland_flag_wave2

Not to be confused with the famous "French defense" in chess, the "Switzerland neutrality posture" in the great 2009 Horse of the Year debate is ultimately indefensible.

At the end of the day, I suppose someone does have to win the award, right?  

So whom do we chose?

As much as I’ve tried to play the Switzerland defense, it’s probably rightly noted that I’m an ever-so-slightly bigger fan of Rachel Alexandra than I am of Zenyatta.  I think that’s a fair assessment of my own emotional makeup.  That’s not to say I don’t love Zenyatta with all my heart – always have and always will – but my record of pro-Rachel Alexandra coverage is something I cannot deny being consciously aware of.  

That being said, I’ve loved Zenyatta since I spotted her profile prior to her maiden debut, noting “hey, that’s the same connections as Giacomo – I might take a shot with this girl!”  In time she became my “slow cheetah” – a name and a song that will forever have a special meaning to me.

 

I care about these two fillies so deeply that I consider it the honor of a lifetime to have been there for the finer moments of each one’s 2009 campaign;  Rachel in the Preakness and the Haskell, and Zenyatta in the Classic. 

Much like I had been calling for a dead heat had the two ever locked horns on the track, I find myself utterly divided over who I would select as Horse of the Year.  I suppose to extract a full answer from me, one might have to subject me to brutal interrogation, straight out of the famed Russian Roulette scene in The Deer Hunter.  Tying me to a chair, constantly slapping my face whilst shouting “Mao!” and demanding that I make a selection.  I believe what follows is what my ultimate decision would be under such duress (apart from arising from said chair and declaring “3 bullets!!! We play with 3 bullets!” in classical De Niro fashion):

  • Rachel Alexandra for 3-year-old filly champion
  • Zenyatta for Horse of the Year
Mao!

Mao! Robert De Niro in the famous Russian Roulette scene from The Deer Hunter

Truth be told, I actually do believe that Rachel Alexandra had the superior overall year (with “overall” being the operative term), however Zenyatta clearly won the superior race. 

Rachel’s year had more than one signature moment.  She was the first filly in 85 years to win the Preakness.  She was the 2nd filly in 42 years to win the Haskell.  She nearly broke the track record in the Mother Goose, coming close to the exploits of Secretariat at the same distance.  Then, of course, she became the first 3-year-old filly to defeat older males in a stakes race of more than a mile on dirt since the inception of graded stakes in the U.S.

 

Zenyatta’s overall campaign for 2009 was a bit less heralded – until her triumph in the Classic that is.  I doubt strongly that anyone will think back to her earlier races in the year and point to them as having been signature – but she did remain undefeated, even when carrying  ridiculous amounts of weight and when it seemed to all observing that her undefeated record was in it’s greatest peril at the hands of Anaaba’s Creation.  Somehow, someway, she ALWAYS found a way to win.

So if Rachel’s campaign is the one I believe to be more accomplished, why make Zenyatta Horse of the Year?

Because at some level, even if it has not historically been the case, the Breeders’ Cup Classic should be the deciding moment.  The quintessential test of an overall champion.  Moreover, the career that Zenyatta rewarded us with is one that is deserving of top honors.  And it’s not like she didn’t race in 2009.  She just didn’t race a whole heckuva a lot of times, nor did she put herself in tremendously challenging positions where victory was assumed to be anything other than a foregone conclusion until her date with destiny in the Classic.

I know that technically it isn’t right to attach emotional sentiment to that which she accomplished in 2008 and then factor that into the equation, but how can one not help but do so?  In all likelihood she left us with her career defining performance on the sports biggest stage (at least the biggest stage for true fans of racing, as opposed to the Warhol-esque 2 minutes of national attention associated with the annual running of the Kentucky Derby) – a perfect story book ending to a career that will from henceforth be the measuring stick for all older fillies and mares that attempt to follow in her hoofsteps.

Likewise, Rachel Alexandra will go down as the new barometer by which all subsequent 3-year-old fillies will be compared.  Make no mistake about it, we’ll still invoke memories of Ruffian as well, who will continue to be the greatest of the great fillies, but my sense of things is that Rachel’s ability to both win a 3-year-old Classic (the Preakness) and then follow that up with repeat performances over 3-year-old males in the Haskell and then older males in the Woodward will cement her legacy for years (if not decades) to come.

The mere fact that Rachel is sometimes mentioned in the same breath as Ruffian speaks volumes for how lofty her star has risen.  Just a year ago you probably would’ve been diagnosed as certifiably mad if you dared to publicly compare any filly to Ruffian.  Now people do so without batting an eye.   I’ve refrained from making any direct comparisons myself, as I think it wise to the let the historical greats stand alone, and if nothing else become larger than the legends they were in their own time rather than replaced by newcomers and diminished in legend, but certainly folks reading this have at least heard those comparisons elsewhere and know what I’m referring to.  The point being not whether they are warranted or not, but merely an acknowledgement that such comparisons do exist.

For Rachel, there will be a 2010, and a chance to show she is capable of winning a Breeders’ Cup Classic of her own.  For Zenyatta, the Classic was in all likelihood her swan song. 

What better way to send off a legend than to allow their final chapter to be an ultimate achievement?  It just feels like the right thing to do.

As much as I love them both and am torn asunder in attempting to make a definitive statement one way or the other – I think the right thing to do is to send Zenyatta off to retirement as the 2009 Horse of the Year.  After all, she started the year as the top older female in racing, and nobody was able to defeat her.  Looking at things that way, and reducing the equation to it’s most simplistic component, it’s a bit hard to justify knocking her from her lofty perch – doubly so in the immediate aftermath of her finest hour. 

And you know what?  At the end of the day it’s really just a silly award.  What these two ladies accomplished on the track will be remembered for years regardless of whether an additional trophy is added to their respective cases.

Respect for each of them has been EARNED on the track, not GIVEN at some awards ceremony.

That’s how I see things at least.  What say you?  Who do you think ought to receive the Eclipse Award for 2009 Horse of the Year?


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Categories : Breeders' Cup, Eclipse Awards, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Preakness, Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta

Horse of the Year; the case for Rachel Alexandra

6 09 2009

 

Rachel Alexandra - Photo by Jim McCue of the Maryland Jockey Club

Rachel Alexandra - Photo by Jim McCue of the Maryland Jockey Club

I’ve posted this on Twitter, placed it in recent articles, and feel very strongly about the matter.  Following Rachel Alexandra’s victory against older males in the Woodward on Saturday at Saratoga, the race for Horse of the Year would appear to be over.  I realize that might be a bold statement considering there are several huge races left to be run this year.  I can’t see how anyone else’s campaign could possibly top what we’ve seen unfold before our eyes.  The filly who was once rejected by her mother (Lotta Kim) has reached the top of the mountain as the finest horse in racing in all of North America.

This isn’t just a Horse of the Year campaign, it’s a campaign for all times.  Arguably the start to a Hall of Fame career.  Every time she runs, decades worth of history come crashing down like so many dominoes.  She lays waste to the competition, conquers every track she encounters, and can lay claim to achieving truly unprecedented results.

“…any talk of another horse being worthy of Horse of the Year honors is patently absurd.”

Interestingly, I actually believe that if the Zenyatta camp had travelled east to face Rachel in the Woodward, they would’ve had a very big shot to prevail.  Especially considering how the pace setup ultimately played out.  The closers (Bullsbay and Macho Again) were rolling late with every chance to catch Rachel.  You’d have to think Zenyatta would’ve been coming gamely in the stretch.  We must also factor in that Zenyatta would’ve been returning to dirt in a relatively fresh condition.

I just don’t see what Zenyatta can do now to surpass what Rachel has done this year?  There would’ve been an opportunity to keep pace by moving up the class ladder and taking on older males in the Pacific Classic, but that didn’t happen.  We KNOW that Rachel is the dominant horse of the U.S. east of the Mississippi.  Zenyatta?  Well, the picture’s a little cloudy for her.  She’s a champion and undefeated mare who deserves a great deal of respect, that much is certain.  

Don’t you have to feel though that the older male division in California has been somewhat ripe for the taking?  I thought Zenyatta would’ve made a lot of sense as a logical contender in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.  Sadly, we’ve never had the chance to find out.  Hopefully that changes in the future, but even so it might be a case of too little too late.

Even if Zenyatta manages to win the Classic, and let’s assume for a moment that she does win in electrifying fashion against top flight competition, would that be enough to leapfrog everything Rachel has accomplished already?  Not in my mind.  Of course, this doesn’t even factor in that Zenyatta might run into a horse like Sea the Stars in the Classic.  As much respect as I have for her, the 2009 campaign so far does not stack up favorably against the accomplishments of Rachel.

Too strong an opinion?  Perhaps, but let’s review that list of accomplishments for Rachel:

Historical notes:
-First filly in 8 decades to win the Preakness
-2nd filly in 42 years to win the Haskell
-first filly EVER to defeat older males in the Woodward

Runners who have flattered Rachel with NEXT OUT Stakes wins:
-Just Jenda ( G3 Monmouth Oaks)
-Sarah Louise (G3 Victory Ride)
-Gabby’s Golden Gal (G1 Acorn)
-Take the Points (G2 Secretariat)
-Flashing (G1 Test)
-Summer Bird (G1 Travers)

Misc:
-5 CONSECUTIVE Grade 1 wins (Ky Oaks, Preakness, Mother Goose, Haskell, Woodward).

-Joins elite company becoming one of the few 3-year-old fillies in history to defeat Grade 1 older males over a mile or more.

-Faced males in 3 of those 5 Grade 1 races, won ‘em all.

-Perfect 8 for 8 record in 2009, all stakes races.

-Has defeated the winners of the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, Travers Stakes, Whitney Handicap, Stephen Foster – all while winning the Kentucky Oaks, Preakness, Mother Goose, Haskell, and Woodward for herself…and that’s just the last 5 races going back to May.

(read that point above one more time)

-For any other horse (colt or filly) defeating the Kentucky Derby winner would’ve been the centerpiece of their 3-year-old campaign.  For Rachel it’s just one of many such moments, and arguably not the biggest or the most memorable.  Think about that.  That’s really saying something.  Just to help you remember how special that moment and the buildup to that historic ride was, take a little walk down memory lane once again:

 

 

-Has won Grade 1 races this year at 5 different tracks: Churchill Downs (KY Oaks), Pimlico (Preakness), Belmont Park (Mother Goose), Monmouth Park (Haskell), and Saratoga (Woodward). 

-There were 3 more stakes victories starting the campaign in early 2009.  Take note of this as it’s the first point in the discussion that Zenyatta’s ’09 campaign draws even by comparison.  It’s the basement of Rachel’s accomplishments but currently the ceiling of those Zenyatta has earned thus far in 2009.  I think that last sentence bears some reflection.

The thought that all of the above happened in the 3-year-old campaign of a single filly is so unbelievably spectacular that I’m not sure even Horse of the Year renders it full justice.  Remember that after all this, she’s still not even a mare yet!  It boggles the mind to think of how she might develop if given proper rest to prepare for a 4-year-old campaign.

“…any talk of another horse being worthy of Horse of the Year honors is patently absurd.”

Well, maybe that is a little harsh, but it’s hard to argue with the list of accolades listed above. 

Any argument favoring someone else for Horse of the Year is bound to contain speculation about what might happen in the future, or is based on memories from the previous year.  In contrast, Rachel’s case is built on events that have actually happened this year.  There’s no might or if about them.  She’s earned it all on the track.

What say you?


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Categories : Belmont Park, Churchill Downs, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Monmouth Park, Pimlico, Rachel Alexandra, Saratoga, Z Humor, Zenyatta

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