Snowmageddon picks for the Robert B. Lewis and Donn Handicap

5 02 2010

By the time you read this, yours truly will be proverbially buried in what could wind up being between 2 to 3 feet of snow!  Yes, the storm we’ve dubbed “Snowmageddon” is absolutely hammering the mid-atlantic, and living on the Maryland/Pennsylvania line, we seem to be right smack dab in the cross-hairs.   What better to do at a time like this than sit back and fire up the ole betting account and take part in the action at some locations enjoying just a bit more friendly weather?  This Saturday affords us several chances for major stakes action across the country.  We’ll be focusing on the Grade 1 Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park and the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita in this post.

Grade 1 Donn Handicap – Gulfstream Park (Race 10) – 5:31 ET

The 52nd running of the $500k Donn will be contested by 10 horses going 1 1/8 miles over the main track at Gulfstream Park.  QUALITY ROAD is the horse everyone will be watching here.  The son of Elusive Quality was a trendy pick for the 2009 Kentucky Derby before being sideline by injury (truth be told, he was my top choice…before that honor went to I Want Revenge…before being forced to switch yet again, ultimately winding up with Friesan Fire.  I think we all know how that ended).  Many will recall his infamous gate antics moments before the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita that caused Zenyatta and others to have to wait what seemed an eternity before he was ultimately scratched.  The colt rebounded from that non-performance by winning the Grade 3 Hal’s Hope here at Gulfstream last out on January 3.  If you’re looking for a big score here, you’ll need to beat him to cash – which may be a tall order.

The interesting thing about this race presents itself when trying to determine who is likely to finish underneath the favorite.  I like the looks of KISS THE KID here quite a bit at 6/1.  I’m usually fond of the Lemon Drops, although it must be noted this one was defeated by DUKE OF MISCHIEF last out by a neck.  PAST THE POINT could also be interesting depending on what happens up front early on.  DELIGHTFUL KISS should be flying late as the field heads for the wire, and I’m expecting him to rally for a share of the money.

Selections:

  • #4 Quality Road (7/5*)
  • #1 Kiss the Kid (6/1)
  • #10 Delightful Kiss (8/1)

Dime Superfecta:  4/ 1, 3, 10/ 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10/ 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 = ($10.80)

The Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis  - Santa Anita (Race 8 ) – 4:07 PT

The 72nd running of the Robert B. Lewis is being billed as a two horse race between offspring of one of my all-time favorite horses and sires; Tiznow.  AMERICAN LION roars into town as a Kentucky Derby hopeful searching for graded stakes earnings.  He’s got a favorable post position towards the outside in this rather light six horse field.  His maiden victory at Keeneland generated quite a bit of buzz, and hopefully we’ll be able to answer some questions about how serious of a horse he’ll be today stretching out to 8.5 furlongs.TIZ CHROME is the “other Tiznow” in the field that everyone is buzzing about.  Trainer Bob Baffert has seen his colt thrash the 17 horses he’s faced in two lifetime starts, including a blitz of the Stuka (get it?) last out at Hollywood.  The question between these two is obviously who will get the best of the added distance.  Considering each colt has shown they don’t need the lead early on to score, we appear to be setup for a promising stretch duel here.  Whoever gets first jump just might pull away with the race.

Underneath, I thought CARACORTADO looked playable, largely because of his 4 for 4 record (albeit against lesser competition).  I could also make a case for the aptly named DOMONATION for trainer John Sadler with jockey smokin’ Joe Talamo aboard.  Either way, it doesn’t look like this will be a bank breaking race, unless something unexpected materializes.

I’ll keep this one fairly simple.

Selections:

  • #6 American Lion
  • #3 Tiz Chrome
  • #7 Domonation

Dime Superfecta:  6/ 3, 4, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 7/ ALL = $3.60

Of course, there’s one other big event coming up this weekend that we’ll be squeezing in time for in between epic snow shoveling sagas:  The Super Bowl.  I’m taking the Colts over the Saints in a close one.

As for the other news that the horse racing news coming out of Oaklawn Park, I’ll simply say I’m reserving serious thought about the potential of a showdown between Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra until something becomes official.  I just don’t have a good feeling it’s going to happen in the Apple Blossom.  We’ll see though – it certainly would be an exciting start to the racing season for 2010.

Best of luck to everyone!



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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Quality Road, Rachel Alexandra, Santa Anita, Zenyatta

Derby workout vids for Quality Road, Friesan Fire, and Chocolate Candy

23 04 2009

Gearing up for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, here’s a quick spin through some of the workout videos available on youtube.  In this round of clips we see Quality Road making his first workout since having his quarter crack patched, Friesan Fire turning in a nice AM drill, and Chocolate Candy getting a nice work with jockey Mike Smith in the saddle.

Quality Road 4/10/09 @ Belmont

 

Friesan Fire 4/14/09 @ Keeneland:

 

Chocolate Candy 4/12/09 @ Santa Anita


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Categories : Belmont Park, Friesan Fire, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Keeneland, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Quality Road, Santa Anita

Quality Road, I Want Revenge top Derby rankings

5 04 2009

 

While the past week didn’t produce any shocking upsets or long prices in the major Derby preps, it was arguably the most important of the entire campaign.  It now appears that The Pamplemousse will be off the Kentucky Derby trail.  The impact of this blow was softened somewhat by a dominating performance from I Want Revenge in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, proving that he is a legitimate Derby threat (and possibly more).   Everyone is furiously adjusting their rankings taking into account the recent changes as all of the roads to the Derby begin to converge.  

We’re getting down to H-hour, folks.  You can feel it in the air.  I even cut my lawn this weekend for the first time this Spring.  I’m a bit upset that we’ve lost The Pamplemousse, as he was one of my favorites, but I’m hopeful that  a horse like Dunkirk will now find a way to squeeze into the field.  He’ll make it a more interesting race if he does.   With a month to go, here’s how I rank ‘em.  

 

  • #1 Quality Road  - Hard not to give him the slight edge by virtue of his brilliant wins in the Florida Derby (G1) and the Fountain of Youth (G2), but it was not an easy decision.   His sire, Elusive Quality, also gave us Smarty Jones a few years back, and  we all know how that turned out.  The biggest question he will face is whether the track at Gulfstream Park was favoring his speedy style.  With the defection of The Pamplemousse the likely pace outlook has changed.  I think it will take  a horse who is somewhat forwardly placed to win it now, and Quality Road should be right there.  A sensational colt who could be our best Triple Crown threat.

 

  • #2 I Want Revenge-  Feel you could rank the top three runners as 1, 1A, and 1B.   I Want Revenge was just absolutely dominating in winning the Wood.  He had no business winning that race, and he didn’t even have to win it.  The fact that he did so makes it a mind blowing performance – off the Richter scale impressive.  It’s exciting to see jockey Joe Talamo have his chance on a big named 3-year-old.  Looks like a force to be reckoned with.

 

  • #3 Friesan Fire – Drops a bit, though not by anything he has done.  It’s just that as impressive as he looked winning the Louisiana Derby (G2), Quality Road and I Want Revenge have looked even better. Larry Jones is giving the colt a long break before the Triple Crown campaign begins, and he’ll go into the Derby on 6 weeks rest.  I know some folks are questioning that, but I would not question anything Jones does with 3-year-olds as for my money he’s the best in the business with them.   I would not forget about this guy come the first Saturday in May.  He threw a sharp bullet work just before his performance in the Louisiana Derby (G2).  Pay attention to how he works leading up to the big day.

 

  • #4 Pioneer of the Nile - Moves to the front of the California division by virtue of his victory in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) as much as the defection of The Pamplemousse from the Derby trail.   Many think he’s bred for turf/synthetics, but he’s a fighter that finds a way to win.  The obvious challenge in predicting his Derby potential is that we’ve yet to see him run on true dirt and won’t until the first Saturday in May.  For what it’s worth, the colt is currently on top of our 3-year-old colt standings over at the TBA.

 

  • #5 Dunkirk – Still has to draw into the field, but if he does he has to be given a chance.  The only horse to have bested him thus far is Quality Road, so if that one is a serious contender than Dunkirk must be as well.   I’d prefer to see him pack on a little muscle before the Derby, but this guy still has a world of upside potential.   Didn’t look like he enjoyed his hard effort in the Florida Derby (G1), but is bred to go the distance.  I suspect he’ll be the “wiseguy” horse going into the Derby.  With the loss of The Pamplemousse and the wins by Musket Man and I Want Revenge last weekend, he just might make it into the field.  It’ll be close. 

 

  • #6 Old Fashioned – Has a chance to redeem himself in the Arkansas Derby next week.  At one point this guy was the favorite for the Derby.   He let one horse get passed him in the stretch of the Rebel  (G2) and then came crashing to earth.  Clearly he is option  B now behind Friesan Fire for Larry Jones, but this colt could still make some noise before all is said and done.

 

  • #7 Desert Party – I felt that this was the right spot for one of the two Godolphin runners from Dubai (Regal Ransom, winner of the G2 UAE Derby, being the other).  You could rank whichever one you like the most here.  My feeling was that Desert Party would get a chance to prove the UAE Derby effort a fluke and turn the tables on Regal Ransom.  There doesn’t seem to be much separating these two.  This guy’s stock will rise or fall depending on how he looks once arriving in Kentucky. 

 

  • #8 Win Willy – I’ve been on this guy’s bandwagon since his run in the Rebel (G2), and will likely remain on board for the ride as far as he takes us.   I was blown away by his powerful move in the Rebel.  If he defeats Old Fashioned again in the Arkansas Derby, than he’ll prove he’s a  legit contender.   His chances in the Derby will likely come down to the pace setup and what gate he draws as he seems to be a closer. 

 

  • #9 Chocolate Candy - Ran well in the Santa Anita Derby but could not get past Pioneer of the Nile.   He’s another who it will be hard to gauge on true dirt until we see some strong workouts. 

 

  • #10 Musket Man – Not sure how this guy will stack up against the big boys as he’s been facing weaker competition, but he is a horse who knows how to find the winner’s circle.  A $15,000 purchase at the September 2007 Keeneland sale, he continues to move forward with each performance.  Illinois Derby win gives him victories at 4 tracks now in just 6 lifetime starts.  That’s got to count for something and suggests he’ll ship well to Kentucky. 

 

Other horses to keep an eye on include:  Papa Clem, Theregoesjojo, Regal Ransom, and Mafaaz.  Up next this weekend are the Arkansas Derby (G2) and the Blue Grass (G1).


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Categories : Churchill Downs, Friesan Fire, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pioneer of the Nile, Quality Road, The Pamplemousse

Quality Road deserves top ranking

29 03 2009

A horse, a horse, my kingdom for a horse!

Now that Quality Road has dispatched the heavily hyped Dunkirk, just where does the son of Elusive Quality belong in the rankings for the 2009 Kentucky Derby?  All the way at the top, if you ask me.  His gutsy performance to hold off the late charging Dunkirk in the stretch at Gulfstream Park has convinced me that this lightly raced colt will be a force to be reckoned with come the first Saturday in May. 

Quality Road finds another gear to hold off Dunkirk in the Florida Derby

Ranking the Derby contenders gets incredibly complex, if you allow it to be so, due to the different paths being taken by the various runners.  Without an opportunity to size them up in face-to-face competition, one is left using the non-scientific approach of interjecting much speculation into their analysis.   Even taking things as straightforward as final time comparisons cannot be considered truly “apples to apples” due to the differences in surface at each of the race tracks in question. 

So what are we to make of Quality Road?  How does he match up with the other big guns?   At some point you have to draw the line between hype and actual production.  It’s a blurred line and one that is constantly changing as the situation unfolds.  For example, I believe that right now you have to rank Friesan Fire and Quality Road above the other contenders.  They’ve finished their preps, and they’ve both done so in impressive style.  Just around the corner, however, we’ll get our best read on the contenders coming from California (in the Santa Anita Derby), and New York (In the Wood Memorial), so things are not set in stone at the top of the list.  

Let’s start by looking at the top 5:

  • #1 Quality Road
  • #2 Friesan Fire
  • #3 The Pamplemousse
  • #4 Pioneer of the Nile
  • #5  I Want Revenge

I don’t think there’s much variety out there in terms of who belongs in the top 5.  The argument seems to be  where these top 5 should be ranked in relation to one another.  Disregard the #1 and #2 rankings for a moment on Friesan Fire and Quality Road.  Truth be told I consider them to be dual #1 contenders.  Both colts used similar stalk and pounce approaches to cash in on their recent victories.  Friesan Fire had to run down the speedy Papa Clem early on, and then hold off late charges from Terrain and Giant Oak.   Many of the bigger named horses who gave the Louisiana Derby such a deep feel prior to the race (Flying Pegasus, Patena, etc.) simply did not fire for whatever reason, leaving Friesan Fire with a relatively easy victory once he reeled in Papa Clem.   Quality Road didn’t face a field quite as deep on paper, but the big names in the Florida Derby did show up to run, as he had to hold off the late charging Dunkirk in the stretch (as well as Theregoesjojo who ran well enough for show) after dispensing with longshot pacesetter Casey’s on Call.  The end result?  I think you’ve got to have these guys one, two.  Where you rank them amongst each other is open for debate, but for now I”ll give the slight edge to Quality Road, and continue to be disappointed that I could not select the horse in the Road to the Roses challenge.

Moving down the list, the next great debate is what to do with the California runners and I Want Revenge.  Obviously if I Want Revenge had remained in California, this would be easier to do from a direct comparison standpoint.  However, that would have left us completely unable to determine how these colts might run once they tried the dirt for the first time.  With the defections of Papa Clem and I Want Revenge and the subsequent success they’ve enjoyed, their would seem to be much promise for the colts currently leading the California Division;  The Pamplemousse and Pioneer of the Nile.  Until Pioneer of the Nile shows he can rundown The Grapefruit (which he very well might do in the upcoming Santa Anita Derby), I”ll continue to rank The Pamplemousse ahead of him.  With The Pamplemousse firmly entrenched at 3rd, that makes things simple for me as I can look at the next two and say “well, Pioneer of the Nile defeated I Want Revenge head to head, so he stays on top for now.”  Of course, it’s never quite that easy, and the 113 Beyer figure that I Want Revenge earned on dirt in the Gotham suggests he’s just as capable as Quality Road.  Here’s one last factor in stacking them as I have above.  Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse will square off face to face next weekend at Santa Anita, so we’ll get a much clearer read on how they match up.  I Want Revenge will face a challenge from some of the lower ranked contenders, and could be vulnerable if a runner like Imperial Council rises to the occasion. 

  • #6 Old Fashioned
  • #7 Imperial Council
  • #8 Dunkirk
  • #9  Chocolate Candy
  • #10 Win Willy

Things get a bit fuzzier once you’re outside of the top 5.   The first challenge is what to do with the falling stock of both Dunkirk and Old Fashioned.   Dunkirk in particular might not have enough earnings to even qualify for the Kentucky Derby, which basically makes his position on a Derby rankings list rather moot.  Let’s say he does find a way to draw into the field though.  Then what would we make of him?   Is he not good enough to merit consideration among the bigger guns?   We  must remember that the Florida Derby was this horse’s third race of his career.  There’s still a tremendous amount of room for improvement, and judging from the way this guy is bred and the fact that he’s only allowed one horse to finish in front of him so far (and did not go down without a fight), I think you’ve got to keep him around.  Ditto for Old Fashioned.  Larry Jones is simply too good a horseman for this guy to fall too far.  I’m convinced Friesan Fire is his best shot, but Old Fashioned has enough class in him to get past many in this year’s crop.  

Then you’ve got some room for “buzz” horses and longshots.  Imperial Council fits into that former category and now becomes the hype horse in the rankings.  He’ll get a shot to turn the tables on I Want Revenge in the Wood, and if he were to do so he’d have to be considered a top 5 contender in the Derby at least.  I’m still holding out hope that this guy could be the best of the Empire Maker colts this year (with all due respect to Pioneer of the Nile). 

Chocolate Candy is now the “Rodney Dangerfield” of this list.  Each week it’s someone different who gets no respect.  In CC’s case, I believe it’s because folks simply haven’t had many good looks at him..  All that will change next weekend with the Santa Anita Derby.   He needs to finish in the top 3 to warrant this ranking, but stop for a moment and consider what a shakeup it would be if he found a way to prevail?   I’m not saying that will happen, but what would the fallout be if it did?  The only thing I can find that he hasn’t done is to win a race recently. 

Lastly, there’s my longshot Win Willy, who I’m going to hold onto in this rankings until someone else forces me to remove him.   I’ll clue you in on another thought going through my mind right now that relates to this guy.  The Pamplemousse is a speedy type.  Friesan Fire, Quality Road, and even Old Fashioned like to be just off the pace anywhere from 2nd to 4th in the early running.  We just might have enough early zip up front that things could open up for a closer like this.  It might take some additional lights out speed signed up on the front end, but I’m just saying that a horse that isn’t on most people’s lists despite running a very visually impressive race to defeat the then top ranked Old Fashioned still warrants some consideration.  

So there you have it, for the moment at least.  In the spirit of the increasingly annoying Capital One credit card commercials:  “Who’s on your list? “


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Categories : Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, horse racing, Horse Racing News, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pioneer of the Nile, Quality Road, The Pamplemousse

Derby time, Florida style

26 03 2009

Another weekend, another step forward down the ole Derby trail.  On Saturday nine horses will compete for lucrative graded stakes earnings and a potential starting spot in the 2009 Kentucky Derby in the 58th running of the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.  In recent years the Florida Derby has become arguably the key prep race in the road to the roses, having produced future Derby winners in Big Brown (2008) , Barbaro (2006), and Monarchos (2001).   On paper this has the feeling of a two horse race, but there are a few runners who could make things interesting for the favorites.  The field sets up like this:

Past Performances available here

  1. Toby the Coal Man (J. Leparoux/ N. Zito) 10/1
  2. Quality Road (J. Velazquez/ J. Jerkens) 2/1
  3. Casey’s On Call (E. Baird/ A. Fehr) 15/1
  4. Dunkirk (G. Gomez/ T. Pletcher) 9/5*
  5. Sincero (E. Trujillo/ M. Azpurus) 20/1
  6. Theregoesjojo (K. McPeek/ K. Desormeaux) 5/1
  7. Danger to Society (M. Madrid/ R. Dutrow) 6/1
  8. Europe (C. Decarlo/ T. Pletcher) 20/1
  9. Stately Character (R. Douglas/ G. Procino) 20/1

There’s simply no getting around it.  The question everyone will be wanting to see answered is whether Dunkirk is worthy of the hype we’ve bestowed upon him in recent weeks.   To prove that he’ll have to find a way to get past a very talented Quality Road for trainer James Jerkens.  Quality Road has the obvious raw speed figure advantage, but Dunkirk is proven at the longer distance of the Florida Derby ( 1 1/8 miles), having defeated conditional allowance winners (including #5 Sincero) last out in what could only be described as a disastrous early trip.  It’s worth taking a look again at that race replay to try and form a final opinion of the son of Unbridled’s Song who sold for $3.7 million in September of 2007.

Dunkirk overcomes an extremely wide trip to crush Allowance runners at Gulfstream Park on 2/19/09

 

I’m not sure what else can be said to describe that effort short of “amazing.”   Had he not been carried so far wide, no doubt his final time and speed figures would have been boosted further.  It’s not hard to figure out why so many fans, including myself, have jumped aboard this guy’s bandwagon.   I mentioned in the last post though that he’s still got a ways to go.   This appears to be a deep crop of three-year-olds he’s in competition with (from an overall standpoint, if not necessarily in this particular field), so he”ll have to continue to improve.   As an unraced 2-year-old with such a light foundation so far coming into the Florida Derby, he’s still a bit of an unknown wild card.   In the end you’ve got to love how he finished that last race.  You get the feeling he wants more and will be ready for the step up in class.

Quality Road should not be taken lightly though.  Dismissed by yours truly in the Fountain of Youth (although I did  mention he would have a bright future in front of him), he romped over what was considered at the time to be an extremely deep group of horses, including Capt. Candyman Can, Beethoven, This One’s for Phil, Notonthesamepage, and Theregoesjojo (who he faces again today).  The son of Elusive Quality has shown he can put up big speed figures at the shorter distances and will now have to prove that he can run just as well going an extra furlong.   Judging from the way he drew off from the Fountain of Youth field,  it doesn’t look like the distance will be a huge concern.  Much like Dunkirk, it’s wise to take at least one last look at Quality Road’s performance in the Fountain of Youth.

Quality Road romps in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on 2/28/09

 

Watching that  performance, it appears Quality Road got an almost perfect trip stalking This One’s for Phil.  I say “almost”  because there was some trouble at the start.  His running line for the race denotes “jostled start.”  In fact, it was the second such performance in a row where he’s run well after encountering some trouble at the start.   Theregoesjojo appeared to be running well for place, and it’s important to note that Quality Road showed his class by keeping a healthy lead on him through the home stretch.  This definitely looks like a serious horse.  One could easily this race boiling down to a similar denouement, where Quality Road has to hold off the charge of Dunkirk late in the stretch.

As for the rest of the field, Theregoesjojo is an improving runner for trainer Ken McPeek that will likely take some heavy play in the exacta pools.  Like Quality Road, he’ll have to prove he can run to those big speed figures stretching out an extra furlong.  In yet another similarity with Quality Road, he also encountered some trouble at the break in the Fountain of Youth by “stepping slow.”  The way he was moving late I think this one gets the added distance with no problems. 

Danger to Society is the x-factor (beyond Dunkirk) who could make his presence felt.  You can never count Rick Dutrow out of a horse race (as much as it pains me to say it), and he could get lucky with this son of Harlan’s Holiday who appeared to be progressing nicely before hitting a bump in the road in the Holy Bull in late January.  They’ve had him on the shelf for a long time since transferring  to Dutrow after the Holy Bull, and his workout tab for March suggests the light may have turned back on.  He could still be any kind of horse, and I’ll be expecting an improved performance in his first effort for his new barn.

If you’re looking for some longshots to round out your exotic wagers, consider the inside runner, Toby the Coal Man for trainer Nick Zito.  Yes, it took him 6 attempts to finally break his maiden last out, but his last two efforts have been tremendous improvements.  He had to fight to bust out of the maiden ranks last out as he was set down for an all out drive in the stretch to reach the promised land of the winner’s circle.  This is an ambitious placement on paper, but he has attracted jockey Julien Leparoux.  I’m guessing the worm has turned with this one.  Look for another step forward and a real shot of hitting the board.

Sincero is another who keeps coming up in my handicapping as a play underneath.  I doubt he can finish higher than 3rd, but he has gone up against some classy colts compared to some of the other long shots on the board.  Note that he has matched up against Big Drama, Free Country, Take the Points, and Dunkirk.  He’s another runner with a penchant for trouble in his running lines.  If he ever puts it all together he’s eligible to move forward. 

Ultimately, if you’re playing the superfecta, I think you’ve got to cover the field for the bottom of the ticket.  Even the longest shot on the board, Europe, looks a little worrisome to leave off completely.  True, he showed absolutely nothing in his debut, but he’s as well bred as his stablemate Dunkirk and his morning workouts suggest he’s more talented than we saw in that effort.  It’s probably asking a bit much for him to step up to the Grade 1 level, but it’s conceivable he could pick up a small share of the earnings. 

I’ll go with Dunkirk for the win, but you won’t hear and argument from me for those who choose to stand against him and take a possibly more prudent “wait and see” approach.  I’m banking on the fact that the distance will be more to his liking than it will be for Quality Road.  That beings said,  I expect Quality Road will make him earn it if he’s to pass him in the stretch.  I’ll use Quality Road, Danger to Society, and Theregoesjojo for place.   Add in Toby the Coal Man and Sincero for show, and then cover the field for the bottom and hope for a bomber.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #4 Dunkirk
  • $.10 Superfecta:  4/2,6,7/1,2,5,6,7/ ALL  ($8.40)

 


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Categories : Dunkirk, Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Quality Road

How deep?

22 03 2009

“There were these two fellars standin’ on a bridge, a-goin’ to the bathroom. One fellar said, “The water’s cold” and the other fellar said, “The water’s deep”. I believe one fella come from Arkansas. Get it?” 

Billy Bob Thornton’s memorable character Carl from the film Sling Blade  may as well have been talking about the depth in this year’s crop of 3-year-old thoroughbreds when he uttered the memorable phrase quoted above.  While everyone, including myself, plods away at the ubiquitous “top 10″  lists for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, there’s an interesting story line running right beneath the surface that is only beginning to be touched upon.  If we are willing to accept, as many are, that 2007 was a uniquely deep year for 3-year-old thoroughbreds,  and that the emergence of Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday, and the filly Rags to Riches represented one of the  most talented overall crops our eyes have been blessed to see – than the prospects for 2009 look extremely bright.  While this past weekend at Turfway Park was hardly the type of high-profile marquee racing action needed to return the sport to it’s glory days, some happenings throughout the week provided clues as to just how deep this field may be.

So, with gratuitous top 10 lists on the brain, Let’s start by taking a look at our current rankings here at The Aspiring Horseplayer.

(Note: until they are definitively pointed to the Derby, I’m assuming Stardom Bound and Rachel Alexandra are headed to the Oaks…for the record I’d probably be inclined to rank Rachel Alexandra #1 overall at the moment if she did point to the Derby, and if she weren’t #1,  she’d be darn close.  Stardom Bound is more difficult to rank.  My heart says to rank her high, but my gut tells me no higher than 4th behind Pioneer and The Pamplemousse…for the moment that is).  

  • #1 Friesan Fire – deserves to be ranked #1 off his impressive victory in the Louisiana Derby.  Appears to be getting a rest before the Triple Crown, something that will cause some to downgrade his chances slightly.  Trainer Larry Jones is as good as they get, so if he’s training smartly once he sets foot at Churchill, he’ll be hard to dethrone as the likely favorite.

 

 

  • #3 Pioneer of the Nile -  I started out the year determined to not become over-infatuated with the California runners, and look what’s become of me!   “Look what they done to my Santino!  Look what they done to my boy!!! “  He can leapfrog The Grapefruit if he can beat him in the Santa Anita Derby in two weeks.  It’s showdown time in the wild, wild, west.

 

  • #4 Dunkirk -  It’s almost inexplicable.  A colt with $0 in graded stakes earnings just over a month before the Kentucky Derby, who did not run as a 2-year-old, is taking the future wagers action by storm!  Clearly we all saw something in that allowance victory that hints at greatness.  My thought after watching the race was that it reminded me of seeing Curlin or Big Brown in their 3-year-old allowance victories.  I think that’s exactly why this guy is so popular.  People see his potential and they associate the recent success of Curlin and Big Brown off of similarly lightly raced resumes.  It’s just that we must temper that expectation a bit by the realization that he’s certainly running in a deeper crop of 3-year olds than Big Brown did, and he might be running in a deeper crop than even Curlin did…and he’s even more lightly raced than those two were.  He’s hyper-lightly raced.   We’ll find out if he’s the real deal in the Florida Derby next weekend.  A loss will send him plummeting.  A win might make him the Derby favorite. 

 

  • #5  I Want Revenge -  it’s not improper to actually have this guy ranked ahead of the other California colts (and Dunkirk) all the way up at #2 by virtue of his impressive 113 Beyer performance in the G3 Gotham.  He’ll get tested again in the Wood in April and bounce candidates will likely be looking to feast, but now there’s rumor that IEAH is attempting to purchase the colt after their “A-horse” (Patena) did not run particularly well in the Louisiana Derby last weekend.  Is Joe Talamo going to win a Derby before he’s old enough to legally consume a Mint Julep in the winner’s circle? 

 

  • #6 Quality Road -  he’s often my forgotten horse.  My head-scratcher.  Like I Want Revenge, he also owns a 113 Beyer figure that seemingly towers over the competition.   He’ll have to prove he can do that going longer than the abbreviated Fountain of Youth.  He’s capable of beating the runners ranked above him.

 

  • #7  Old Fashioned -  Hard to drop him too far off one lifetime defeat, but things don’t seem to be going the right way here.   Was the near-consensus #1 just a few weeks ago.

 

  • #8 Win Willy -  I’m hoping to be out in front of the bandwagon on this guy.   Looking over his effort against Old Fashioned, I can’t help but sing:  “…then I saw his face.  Now I’m a believer!”  Or in keeping with my Sling Blade theme, I could always fall back upon the following defense if this guy fails:  “They turned me loose from the nervous hospital!”  It is interesting to keep in mind that someone  (IEAH?) tried to purchase him after his upset of Old Fashioned, so at least someone else out there liked what they saw as well. 

 

  • #9 Imperial Council -  Does anyone really think this guy can’t jump up and win the Wood?  If he does take the Wood, he’ll  be “Rocket man, burning out his fuse up here alone!” and probably have the fastest rising stock of the group.  If he turns in a sub-par performance and I Want Revenge waltzes away with it, it’ll be back to square one. 

 

  • #10 Chocolate Candy – We haven’t heard from this guy in a while, but he’ll get a crack at Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse in the Santa Anita Derby this April.  He appears to be the third best of that group, but I’m not ready to count him out of this fight just yet.  It’ll likely be a small but talented field in the SA Derby, including Mr. Hot Stuff. 

 

Most fans have some combination of the same runners in their top selections: Friesan Fire, The Pamplemousse, Pioneer of the Nile,  Dunkirk, and I Want Revenge.

Depending upon how one feels the “filly saga” will play out, Rachel Alexandra and Stardom Bound certainly deserve mention among those competitors.  Rachel Alexandra in particular could be the best of the entire crop, as she’s been running faster than the boys on dirt, but for now appears bound for the Oaks.   Stardom Bound is a gutsy competitor who reminds me  in many ways of Zenyatta with her sheer determination to win.  Many are holding out hope that IEAH decides to point her to the Derby instead of the Oaks.

Now here’s where it gets interesting.  The logical win candidates for the Derby do not end with those horses.  You’ve got to at least mention Quality Road and his gaudy 113 Beyer.   After all, that’s the same figure I Want Revenge earned.  It’s just that Quality Road only went a mile, but he looks like he’ll go longer with no problems. 

Then there’s Dunkirk.  He’s the x-factor of the crop as he’s been heavily played in future wager pools despite having a whopping total of $0 in graded stakes earnings.  It’ll be all or nothing for Dunkirk in the Florida Derby next week.   If he’s harassed by the Wehrmacht and the Luftwaffe entering the far turn…no wait, scratch that…wrong Dunkirk.  Although he does need a clean trip.

How about Old Fashioned?  Remember that guy?  Just a few weeks ago he was the consensus #1 among most of us pundits, now here he is towards the bottom of the list.   He’s only been beaten by 1 horse in his career, but there are storm clouds on the horizon.  Larry Jones has stated Friesan Fire is the best colt in his barn, and there was a comment made during the ESPN broadcast yesterday that it’s “now or never” for Old Fashioned.   He’s got the talent and class to reach down and run a big one, but as of right now I think you have to rate others higher. 

So who was that one horse who managed defeat Old Fashioned?  Oh yeah, Win Willy!  Honestly he’s the guy I”ll probably take the most flak (there’s my 2nd gratuitous World War 2 reference of the post) for continuing to rank in my top contenders.  I’m trusting my eyes on this one, and my eyes told me that this was a fine colt with big races still ahead of him.

That’s 10 horses already that have legitimate shots to win the Derby.  And guess what, we can still go deeper.   Imperial Council will go into the Wood as either the 2nd or 3rd choice on the morning line behind I Want Revenge and (possibly) Quality Road.   He may not have the same foundation as Pioneer of the Nile, but he could still wind up being the best of the Empire Maker offspring in this crop.   It wouldn’t take much to imagine him finding a way to prevail in the Wood, and if he did than he’d obviously leapfrog I Want Revenge. 

And the list goes on and on.  I’m going to bypass Dubai for the time being.  Suffice to say there are a couple of runners who could still ship to the U.S. and make some noise this spring, but until they do I’ll view them as outsiders.  Add to this list the likes of Chocolate Candy, Musket Man, Theregoesjojo,  and Papa Clem and you get the picture. 

 So how deep is this year’s field?   it’s Arkansas -fellar pissin’ on a bridge deep!   That’s how deep we’re talking about here.


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Categories : Friesan Fire, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail, Old Fashioned, Pioneer of the Nile, Stardom Bound

The Pamplemousse and Quality Road get the job done.

1 03 2009

Track announcer Trevor Denman’s call was spot on as The Pamplemousse prepared to cross the finish line in Saturday’s running of the Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita Park;

“…they would need to sprout wings to catch him…”

 

Indeed. The impressive son of Kafwain with the funny name (pronounced “pample-moose” in case, like me, your first inclination was to make it more of a “pimple mouse” enunciation) has now pulled off 3 straight victories in a row, with each one being an improvement on the last.   Julio Canani’s grapefruit has only one test left to pass out west on the road to the Kentucky Derby when he faces off against Pioneer of the Nile and (perhaps) Stardom Bound in the Santa Anita Derby in April. 

The Pamplemousse is a horse that has become quite popular with fans following the action out in California.  Visually, he’s an impressive colt that looks big and well put together to me.  If you haven’t had a chance to get up close and personal with him, you’re in luck; Mary Forney has been documenting him in the morning workouts and getting some always entertaining Julio Canani camera time and it’s all available on youtube.

 

Take the Points proved something to me by running fairly well for 2nd in the Sham.  Prior to the race I had mentioned that I’m not fond of horses shipping from east to west (especially not on such short notice), but he showed up and ran extremely well.  This might be a horse to keep an eye on as well.  Not many have the versatility to run big on both dirt and synthetics. I think this guy has a future in front of him.  Colonel John’s full brother Mr. Hot Stuff got up for third.

The challenge The Pamplemousse will likely have to overcome one of these days is to his front running, gate to wire style.  The only thing we need to see from this colt is that he can relax.  However, isn’t it somewhat more impressive that he’s doing this over the Santa Anita Pro Ride?  It’s not the most speed favoring track in recent memory and tends to play more like a turf course.   Plus, all he does is run the competition out of their shoes.  You’ve got to love that, but I’m still a bit cautious about his chances come the First Saturday in May. 

 

 

In the other major action of the day, Quality Road turned in a bit of a shocker in the Fountain of Youth.  Several of you had mentioned this horse as a runner you expected big things from, so I’m hoping there were a few cashed tickets out there amongst the faithful.  Me, I got burned by him as I expected him to be part of a hot pace.  That didn’t really develop right away, and by the time it did Quality Road was actually in good position to benefit from it stalking just behind This One’s for Phil.

My choice, Beethoven, ran on for third, but never really threatened.  Quality Road won in impressive fashion, absolutely blowing away This One’s for Phil in the stretch.  The win is the third quality performance that the aptly named Quality Road has turned out thus far in his career, and it looks like the son of Elusive Quality should be able to get some extra distance if trainer James Jerkens decides to point him towards either the Florida Derby or the Wood Memorial in early April.

I also thought Theregoesjojo was running very well late and it will be interesting to see where trainer Ken McPeek points this guy next.   For now though, Quality Road definitely looks like a colt to keep an eye on in the coming months.  Obviously the Pamplemousse was already on most everyone’s radar, but it’s always nice to welcome a relatively new colt to the discussion, so come on down Quality Road and pull up a chair. 

Next weekend should bring even more intrigue as we get to see Haynesfield, Imperial Council, Mr. Fantasy, and others in the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct.  Things are starting to get interesting, that’s for sure.  If you’re curious about my top 10 Derby contenders at the moment, I’d rank ‘em like this:

  1. Old Fashioned
  2. Dunkirk
  3. Pioneer of the Nile
  4. Friesan Fire
  5. The Pamplemousse
  6. Patena (must live up to the hype to prove this position though)
  7. Quality Road (rocketing up my list)
  8. Haynesfield (will get toughest test yet in the Gotham, but has earned this ranking thus far)
  9. Imperial Council (is he the real deal?)
  10. Stardom Bound (get the feeling she’ll head to the Oaks instead of the Derby)

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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Quality Road, Santa Anita, The Pamplemousse

Saturday Selections

9 01 2009

Nothing stops the procession of progress around here at The Aspiring Horseplayer, not even the arrival of a new son.  That’s right, in case you somehow missed it, my second little guy was born last Saturday at the hospital in Gettysburg.  He’s got good turf pedigree and should round out into one of the better juveniles in a couple of years.  Actually, I’m hoping he’s not affiliated with anything “juvenile” as that conjures up images of detention centers and correctional facilities.  Let’s hope that’s a path this boy can avoid.

Beyond that excitement, there’s obviously NFL playoff fever in the air.  I’ll just come right out and say that on Divisional Weekend I like the Panthers, Eagles, Ravens, and Chargers.  Now that football is out of the way, let’s dive into our sport of choice; thoroughbred horse racing, and see if we can’t pick some winners for the Lecomte, the San Pasqual, and a very interesting Allowance race at Gulfstream Park featuring two of the more highly regarded 3-year-olds in the land.

The Grade 3 Lecomte – Fair Grounds (Race 9) – 1 Mile (Dirt)

  • #1 Friesan FIre (5/1)
  • #2 Au Moon (8/1)
  • #3 Citizen (20/1)
  • #4 Patena (4/1)
  • #5 Big Push (8/1)
  • #6 Dynamic Force (10/1)
  • #7 Professor Z (6/1)
  • #8 Uno Mass (5/1)
  • #9 Indygo Mountain (3/1*)

Looking over the field of the Lecomte, we’ve got some speed signed on here with Patena breaking from the 4 hole, Big Push from post 5, and the Steve Asmussen runner Professor Z from post 7.  That should set things up nicely for one of the stalkers, namely either Indygo Mountain or Uno Mass.

Of those two, I prefer the other Asmussen entry, Uno Mass, by the slimmest of margins.  The son of Macho Uno has not only borken his maiden, but also defeated the next level allowance foes, something that Indygo Mountain has not achieved yet.  All things considered I think these two colts are very close in terms of talent, so it all comes down to whether or not you like 3/1 on the extreme outside, or 5/1 just to his inside.  I’ll probably play the odds here. 

There are a couple of others in here to keep your eye on if shooting for the $.10 superfecta (fast becoming one of my favorite bets in the game; to the point that I’m almost disgusted when it’s not offered on a betting program…every race should have a $.10 super!!!).  Au Moon won for fun last out against Special Weight competition and could be any kind of horse.  He accomplished that from the 10 hole last out and should appreciate being moved inside today.  Friesan Fire is also very intriguing with that combination of jockey Gabriel Saez and trainer Larry Jones (not to mention the horse, who appears to be in sharp form). 

I’ll play Uno Mass on top with Indygo Mountain (note: I keep wanting to type “hello, my name is Indygo Mountain, you killed my father, prepare to die!!!” whenever I write his name), Professor Z, and Friesan Fire in place.  I’ll add in Au Moon and Patena for show, and finally I’ll add Big Push for 4th:

8/1,7,9/1,2,4,7,9/1,2,4,5,7,9 = $4.80

 

Gulfstream Park  Alw 42000N$Y (7 Furlongs – Dirt)

  • #1 Summerton (12/1)
  • #2 Belo Sorte (20/1)
  • #3 Two Brash (12/1)
  • #4 Quality Road (5/2*)
  • #5 Obligingly (3/1)
  • #6 Theregoesjojo (6/1)
  • #7 B B’s Song (20/1)
  • #8 Meshuga (30/1)
  • #9 Monk’s Creek (8/1)
  • #10 Tar Beach (12/1)
  • #11 Awesome Rythm (12/1)
  • #12 Jet Set Vinny (8/1)

This very well could be the race of the day.  By far it’s the race I’m most excited about as Saturday draws near.  Two of the most highly touted 3-year-olds in the land, Quality Road and Obligingly, will knock heads in this deceptively strong conditional allowance race and we may get our first look at who is a Derby contender and who is a pretender when all is said and done.  Both colts have surpassed the 100 Beyer figure threshold as 2-year-olds.  Quality Road is the one thought to have the brighter future, but today may be Obligingly’s day to shine.

Quality Road posted a 101 figure breaking from the 10 hole in his debut at Aqueduct last November.  Since then he’s been throwing bullets at Palm Meadows and would appear to be primed and loaded for trainer James Jerkens.  Obligingly is an Officer colt that jumped from a 49 Beyer in his debut to an impressive 100 at Churchill in an 11 length win on December 7. 

Take your pick from these two, but I can’t see anyone else beating them.  I’ll probably play odds again here, if I even play (the $.10 Superfecta is calling me to).  This is one of those races I just want to see both colts come back well from after moving forward in the afternoon.  Hopefully we get that.  All things being equal, at the tricky 7 furlong distance, I’ll take Obligingly.  It won’t bother me at all if Quality Road is as good as advertised and he beats me.  We’ll keep the play cheap.

5/4,9,12/1,4,9,12/1,3,4,9,11,12 = $3.60

 

The Grade 2 San Pasqual Handicap – Santa Anita (Race 8) – 1 1/16 Miles (Pro Ride)

  • #1 Mostacolli Mort
  • #2 Marchfield
  • #3 Informed
  • #4 Cowboy Cal
  • #5 Noble Court
  • #6 Past the Point
  • #7 Well Armed
  • #8 Magnum
  • #9 Blue Exit
  • #10 Ball Four
  • #11 Racketeer
  • #12 Slew’s Tizzy

We end up the day in the feature at Santa Anita, the 72nd running of the Grade 2 San Pasqual Handicap.   Hopefully any of you playing the Santa Anita card are still alive in the enormous Pick 6 carryover pool available on Saturday.  I don’t quite have the cash flow to take an honest stab into that at the moment.  The carryover itself illustrates one small problem for handicappers; when to have the courage to stand on favorites.  They haven’t been winning as often as usual as the Pro Ride has adapted to it’s first full winter of use. 

Still, I think it’s going to take a top notch effort from someone to take down the favorite, Well Armed, here.   We’ve seen Well Armed bang heads with Curlin and Go Between in the past.  To me he’s clearly the best horse on paper once you draw a line through the effort last out in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (aka “Synthetic Mile”).

That being said, there are some attractive options if you feel like taking a stab.  For starters, one of my favorite horses to play in such angles is Cowboy Cal.  Some of you may remember I picked him in the Hollywood Derby and he finished less than a length behind Court Vision (I still feel like he could’ve won that one).  I really like his recent form, and if he were to put it all together today, he’d certainly have a chance. 

Another to keep an eye on is the often disrespected Past the Point.  I say “often disrespected” because he isn’t known for being a “winner” and was at one point, along with the late Wanderin Boy, one of the horses those who were not fans of Curlin would use to point out the weakness of races like the Woodward.  What Past the Point has shown me since then is that he isn’t a fluke.  He belongs in this kind of race.  I’m not sure he can ever beat the likes of Well Armed, but he can certainly hit the board consistently.  I’d expect him to give a pretty good account of himself when all is said an done.

Another horse to consider here is Slew’s Tizzy breaking from the extreme outside.  For those that don’t know, I have a confirmed fetish for playing the offspring of Tiznow.  It’s just something I’ve noticed over the years.  They do pretty well for me when I play them, and when I don’t play them (cough, Da’ Tara, cough), they absolutely burn me alive.  He’s another that if you draw a line through is effort on Breeders’ Cup weekend makes a lot of sense here, although that outside post could be an issue.  At least, if nothing else, it should assure a clean break.

I’ll play the chalk on top, with Past the  Point, Cowboy Cal, and Slew’s Tizzy in place.  I’ll add in Ball Four for show, and then toss in Mostacolli Mort and the other Tiznow colt (Informed) and Noble Court for the bottom of the superfecta:

7/4,6,12/4,6,10,12/1,3,4,5,6,10,12 = $4.50

As always, best of luck to all and be sure to check for late changes/scratches – not to mention weather this time of year.


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Categories : Fair Grounds, Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita


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