Old Fashioned favored in Arkansas Derby rematch with Win Willy

10 04 2009

When last we saw them, Win Willy was surging past Old Fashioned in the stretch to win by 2 1/2 lengths in the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park.  This Saturday the two will square off again along with 8 other contenders in the 73rd running of the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, which will be televised nationally on ESPN2 at 5:41 CT.  The field sets up like this:

Past Performances available here

  1. Captain Cherokee (A. Gryder/ S. Asmussen) 20/1
  2. Papa Clem (R. Bejarano/ G. Stute) 6/1
  3. Flat Out (J. Garcia/ C. Dickey) 10/1
  4. Poltergeist (Q. Hamilton/ D. Van Hemel) 20/1
  5. Ziegfeld (J. Court/ D. Romans) 12/1
  6. Flying Private (I. Ocampo/ D. Wayne Lukas) 6/1
  7. Summer Bird (C. Rosier/ T. Ice) 30/1
  8. Old Fashioned (T. Thompson/ L. Jones) 9/5*
  9. Win Willy (M. Berry/ M. Robertson) 7/2
  10.  Danger to Society (C. Velasquez/ R. Dutrow) 6/1

The Rebel was characterized by a speedy pace set by Silver City, which likely cost the Larry Jones trainee Old Fashioned in the stretch as Win Willy was able to overcome him and pull the upset.  The pace of the Arkansas Derby should be a bit slower.  Coupled with the added half furlong of ground, this one should set up nicely for Old Fashioned.  After all, not long ago he was a popular favorite on many power rankings for the 2009 Kentucky Derby. 

 

Jones will almost certainly have Old Fashioned attempt to relax more this weekend.  He’s removed highly acclaimed jockey Ramon Dominguez in favor of jockey T.J. Thompson.   The two have combined for a 23% success rate over the last year in 176 races, so clearly they know how to get the job done.  While the speedy Silver City is obviously not here this weekend, we do get another likely pace setter in the form of Papa Clem, an eye appealing son of Smart Strike out of the Gary Stute barn. 

Silver City went the opening half mile of the Rebel in :46 flat.  The likely pace for the Arkansas Derby should be considerably slower.  I don’t think it’ll be as slow as Papa Clem got away with in the slop during the Louisiana Derby, but I doubt he pushes it hard enough to go sub :47 over the opening half mile.  Old Fashioned will likely tuck in behind Papa Clem and look to get the jump on him turning for home.  

Win Willy’s victories have all been against quick opening fractions, so if he’s to catch Old Fashioned and Papa Clem he’ll likely need them to be going at it a bit early on.   I will say this about ‘Willy – I thought his late move in the Rebel was one of the more powerful I’ve seen all year.   As a son of 2001 Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos, the colt sold for just $25,000 at the September, 2007 Keeneland auction sale, and finds himself now competing (and in the case of the Rebel, winning) against horses who cost over ten times that much when originally purchased.   I like this horse quite a bit and have been aggressively ranking him in my own Derby power rankings, but it doesn’t look like this race sets up his way on paper.  I expect him to be flying late, but this one really looks like Old Fashioned’s to lose. 

An interesting x-factor for this race is the Danger to Society, who makes his inaugural start for much maligned trainer Rick Dutrow.  We’ve been waiting to see this guy all Spring, and admittedly he’s a horse I took a flyer on in the Road to the Roses challenge.  He seems to have been working fairly well leading up to this, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him cranked and ready to roll for Dutrow on first asking.  He definitely offers value to those who refuse to eat chalk in this one. 

I’ll likely let odds determine the final play in this one, as I’m hesitant to swallow too much chalk myself here on Old Fashioned, especially considering how fond I am of Win Willy.   Looking over the past performances here the night before the race,  I am inclined to make Old Fashioned the top pick.   I’ll play Papa Clem, Danger to Society, and Win Willy in place.   Add in Poltergeist and Flying Private for show, with Captain Cherokee and Flat Out on the bottom of the Superfecta.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #8 Old Fashioned
  • $.10 Superfecta:  8/2,9,10/2,4,6,9,10/1,2,3,4,6,9,10 ($6.00)

Best of luck to all!


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Old Fashioned, Oaklawn Park

Fountain of Youth a race of intrigue

27 02 2009

In the 16th century, Spanish explorer and conquistador Ponce de Leon is rumored to have searched high and wide for the mythical Fountain of Youth in order to cure his natural aging.  He never did find it.  Trying to decipher Saturday’s 63rd running of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park might be just as difficult a proposition.  We’ve got an incredibly deep field of talented and up-and-coming 3-year-old colts all trying to stamp there name on the Kentucky Derby Trail.  Twelve horses are entered (although one is likely shipping west for the day’s other feature, the Sham at Santa Anita).  The field sets up like this:

Past Performances for the G2 Fountain of Youth are available here

  1. Be Cee Cee (C. Velasquez/E. Plesa Jr.) 30/1
  2. Theregoesjojo (K. Desormeaux/ K. McPeek) 15/1
  3. Notonthesamepage (E. Trujillo/W. Ward) 4/1
  4. Take the Points (C. Decarlo/T. Pletcher) 10/1
  5. Jack Spratt (R. Douglas/M. Maker) 20/1
  6. Rocketing Returns (J. Lezcano/N. Zito) 15/1
  7. Beethoven (C. Borel/J. Ward Jr.) 12/1
  8. Break Water Edison (E. Coa/J. Kimmel) 15/1
  9. Capt. Candyman Can (J. Leparoux/I. Wilkes) 5/1
  10.  Taqarub (A. Garcia/K. McLaughlin) 6/1
  11.  Quality Road (J. Velazquez Jr./ J. Jerkens) 8/1
  12.  This Ones for Phil (E. Prado/R. Dutrow) 3/1*

Most of the attention in this race will likely be focused on what I refer to as the “Beyer freaks.”  That probably doesn’t need an explanation from most horseplayers.  Obviously this means “Phil” and “Not”.  If they run anything like those speed figures here, this race won’t be much of a mystery at all. 

The trouble with just blindly taking “Not” , who has the better post position (in theory) of the two is that he is likely to be involved in what appears to be a fairly hotly contested early pace in this race.   You get the feeling he is the speed, but Quality Road and Taqarub would appear to have something to say about that.  He also has the look of a sprinter when going over his running lines.  Sure he can burn ‘em at 6 furlongs and shorter, but can he do it going 8?  I’d say at 4/1 you make him prove it first.

“Phil” presents an altogether different problem in that he’s hung wide in the 12 hole.  Of course, we are talking trainer Rick Dutrow here – the man who got Big Brown to the winner’s circle in post 12 of the Florida Derby last year, and then from post 20 in the Kentucky Derby. I actually think the outside provides “Phil” with a clean break, which is something he’ll need trying to save some ground early and then stalking the hot pace.  The danger for him is getting cooked if the fractions are too hot up front.   That being said, he seems the proverbial bounce candidate, and at 3/1 in a field with as many options as this, he does warrant taking a chance against.   Respect him for sure, but don’t be paralyzed with fear over his Beyers. 

Ultimately this race does set up for a horse coming from off the pace.  The question for me is “how far off the pace?”  Let’s say Phil were to get burned up front early on.  Then what?   Well, 3 horses who could benefit are Capt. Candyman Can (5/1), Beethoven (12/1), and Break Water Edison (15/1).  Those are some decent prices, especially when you consider that two races back Beethoven beat Capt. Candyman Can.  Assuming we do get the expected pace scenario up front, and that we’re playing on the idea that to beat the favorite (“Phil”), we’d have to hope he gets a little tired  trying to keep up with the early pace, that really sets things up for Beethoven and Break Water Edison.

I know Beethoven is a popular upset pick form many handicappers, so I’m obviously not the only one seeing him with a huge chance here.  The race has to fall into his lap though as I don’t think that with all things being equal he can quite outrun the main rivals today.  

Breakwater Edison is my longshot bomber for the race.  Two months ago this guy might have been favored here.  Now he’s 15/1.  All he’s done in between is had one horrible trip.  We’ve all seen this before.  Is that last trip the “real” Break Water Edison, or were his runs in the end of his 2-year-old campaign more formful?  He was definitely facing (at least at that stage in their development) better when he faced off against Vineyard Haven, Cribnote, and Munnings on back to back occasions.  He’s Lemon Drop, so you know he likes all the extra ground (and experience) he can get.   There’s a lot to like about this guy at 15/1 is all I’m saying.  You can’t always come up with ways why a 15/1 can win a race like this, so being able to foresee him closing late into a hot early pace makes me think this guy could be a player here.

Quality Road and Taqarub look like very good horses, but they’d be a lot more appealing to me if they were the only speed in this race.  It seems to me that to win they are going to have to show they can relax a bit stretching out, which might be asking just a tad too much against this rather salty competition.

Honestly there’s a million ways you could go with this one.  I’m going bombing with my picks.  I’m playing Beethoven to win for $20, and putting him on top of my 10 cent Superfecta.  I’ll probably use “Phil”, Break Water Edison, and Capt. Candyman Can in second.   I like Theregoesjojo enough to add him in third, and Bee Cee Cee seems to have a tendency to wind up hitting the board as well.  I’ll add in Quality Road and “Not” for the bottom of the ticket.

Selections:

  • $20 Win:  #7 Beethoven
  • $.10 Superfecta: 7/8,9,12/1,2,8,9,12/1,2,3,8,9,11,12 ($6.00)

Best of luck to all. You wont’ get any argument out of me if you play “Phil” or the Capt. as the scenarios where they could win are just as likely (if not more).   Whatever you do, make sure you watch this one if you can as it looks like the best Derby prep that we’ve had thus far…at least on paper.


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail

Saturday Gulfstream picks

30 01 2009

Hot off an exciting Friday that saw Captain Candyman Can prevail in the Hutcheson (where highly touted Break Water Edison finished a disappointing 6th), Guflstream Park comes right back with an even more thrilling Saturday card that features the Grade 1 Donn Handicap, the Grade 3 Holy Bull, and the much anticipated debut of Barbaro’s little brother, Nicanor.  As if all of that were not enough, Gulfstream beckons horseplayers from all over the land with 10 cent superfectas and a much needed 50 cent Pick 4 sequence. 

For anyone in need, you can access a free copy of the Gulfstream past performances over at the home page for the TBA.

Race 7: The Grade 3 Holy Bull  (1 1/8 Miles)

  • #1 Bruce N Autumn (12/1)
  • #2 Danger to Society (5/1)
  • #3 Bear’s Rocket (20/1)
  • #4 Saratoga Sinner (12/1)
  • #5 El Crespo (12/1)
  • #6 Rockland (8/1)
  • #7 Stately Character (20/1)
  • #8 Idol Maker (6/1)
  • #9 Nowhere to Hide (8/1)
  • #10 West Side Bernie (3/1*)
  • #11 Beethoven (4/1)

Several horses who hope to figure prominently on the Kentucky Derby trail highlight the 20th running of the Holy Bull.  Beethoven and West Side Bernie, the likely favorites, have each drawn outside post positions for the two-turn route, and could be compromised by this development.  Might that set things up for a thief from the inside? 

From looking over the selections of the handicappers in the Saturday edition of the DRF, I see I’m not alone in boosting the chances of the promising Danger to Society.  He’s an intriguing son of Harlan’s Holiday who is undefeated in two starts.  While it’s tough to figure out just what quality of opponents he’s been facing, he could get a great trip here today stalking from off the pace.  I especially like that he’s got a victory under his belt at the demanding 9 furlong distance, something neither Beethoven or West Side Bernie can say. 

I consider myself enough of a Beethoven fan at the moment to anticipate that he’ll run well on Saturday.  He’s been flattered now with Captain Candyman Can’s win in the Hutcheson on Friday, as he defeated him last time out along with Giant Oak.  I think this makes Beethoven the class of the field and the obvious win candidate on paper.  My only problem with West Side Bernie is that he exits the Delta Jackpot, and we all know historically that race tends to be inflated in terms of class and worth. 

Another interesting runner to consider here on the bottom of exotic tickets is the Smarty Jones colt Rockland.  He’d have to step up big time to win here, and I don’t predict that happening, but it’s hard to knock his recent form.  True, he only stepped up to the lower allowance level last time out, but it’s still nice to see a Beyer improvement from 77 to 82 his first time against winners. 

Stately Character is another that warrants some consideration.  He offers great value at 20/1 and should be charging late if he gets something to run at.  Speaking of which, from a pace standpoint, this one does look a little curious.  I’m guessing Idol Maker and Bear’s Rocket should be a part of whatever is going on early on.   Danger to Society could be involved as well, or he could stalk.  Either way I think the pace setup is very favorable to him.  El Crespo is the x-factor here to me as it’s any-one’s guess how his recent turf form will translate to dirt in his first try over that surface. 

For my superfecta ticket, I’ll play Danger to Society for the win over Beethoven, West Side Bernie, and Stately Character.  I’ll add in Rockland and El Crespo underneath for show.  Rounding out the ticket I’ll add in Idol Maker and Bruce N’ Autumn for 4th.

2/7,10,11/5,6,7,10,11/1,5,6,7,8,10,11 ($6.00)

 

Race 9:  The Grade 1 Donn Handicap (1 1/8 Miles)

  • #1 Finallymadeit (12/1)
  • #2 Albertus Maximus (4/1)
  • #3 Anak Nakal (10/1)
  • #4 Bullsbay (8/1)
  • #5 A.P. Arrow (10/1)
  • #6 On Board Again (20/1)
  • #7 Arson Squad (3/1)
  • #8 Sir Whimsy (12/1)
  • #9 Great Hunter (15/1)
  • #10 Einstein (5/2*)

The Donn stacks up as a formidable feature race on the Gulfstream card. This is the kind of feature that would be the centerpiece of that crazy “Take Back Saturday” idea I’m always on about.  We’ve got Albertus Maximus, Einstein, and a very sharp looking Arson Squad all lined up to do battle.  Every runner in the race with the exception of Bullsbay has posted a 100 Beyer at some point in their career.  Want to know the crazy thing though?  I actually really like Bullsbay here as a value play.  I’ll explain more in a bit.

First, let’s look at the obvious.  The top two win candidates on paper have to be considered Einstein and Arson Squad.  Einstein gets the outside draw here, but he’s classy enough to overcome that.  I usually think of Einstein as more of a turf runner (as many do), but he’s showed that he can run competitively on the dirt, as evidenced by his win in the Clark Handicap and his 2nd place finish to eventual Horse of the Year winner Curlin in the Stephen Foster.   Even better for Einstein, 9 furlongs seems to be his sweet spot.  I think he’s got a big chance here, but the value likely won’t be much.  He’s a definite horse to cover in the exotics.

Arson Squad is another to keep an eye on.  If you’ve been following the mini-feud between Andy Beyer and trainer Rick Dutrow in the Daily Racing Form over Dutrow’s dramatically improved colt This Ones for Phil, you’re no doubt wondering “if Dutrow could do that with a career best 80 Beyer runner, what might he do with Arson Squad here?”  The answer is simple.  Don’t look for any dramatic 20 point increase, but this is clearly a horse in sharp form that is to be respected in this contest.  The one thing that worries me with him is that he’s seemingly gotten better with a few races under his belt following a layoff, and he’s been off since late November.  That being said, he certainly improved once entering Dutrow’s barn, and has been working pretty well in the mornings.  He’s another player with a big shot, but I’ll once again probably look elsewhere for value in the superfecta.

Albertus Maximus is probably going to wind up the 3rd choice on the tote board at post time, but there are questions with him as well.  He’s not exactly known for his true dirt form and is seemingly a better synthetic runner, although do note that he has a win and a place in two starts over the conventional surface.  He’s probably the hardest horse to get a read on in the entire field and could show up huge or be a huge bust. 

My upset special?  I’m going with the dark horse, the only guy not yet in the 100 Beyer club.  That’s right: Bullsbay.   I know, it may look like madness at first glance, but here me out on this.  First, he’s from trainer Graham Motion’s barn, who has always been one of my favorites.   Two races back he defeated a field that included Belmont Stakes winner Da’ Tara.  He got a good primer under his belt going 8 furlongs last out and raylling for 2nd place over the Gulfstream main track.  Lastly, he’s a Tiznow…and one that figures to offer some value on the board.  Make no mistake, I”m not necessarily predicting he’ll win here, as I’d expect either Einstein or Arson Squad do wind up in the winner’s circle.  I just think he’s got enough of a chance here to be a decent value play.  Especially in the superfecta. 

4/2,7,10/1,2,3,7,10/1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10 ($8.40)

 

As for Nicanor’s debut?  I’m going to sit and watch this one.  Don’t get me wrong, I’ll have a pick 4 ticket in play that will likely have him covered, but I’m not going to heap any expectations on the colt until we see what we have in him.  It’s enough for now that he’s in racing and that at least some of the same genes that went into Barbaro are back on the track.  Anything on top of that is gravy.   We’ve also got the Santa Monia at Santa Anita, but with Indian Blessing’s scratch that race got a lot less exciting.  Ventura all the way for what it’s worth. 

As always, be sure to check for late scratches and or changes.  Best of luck to everyone.


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Categories : Barbaro, Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail

Lock and load with Big Brown today

3 08 2008
Big Brown looks to avenge his Belmont debacle in the Haskell today at Monmouth Park
Big Brown looks to avenge his Belmont debacle in the Haskell today at Monmouth Park

Horse racing fans all over the world will be focused this afternoon on the 41st running of the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park and the return of former Triple Crown hopeful Big Brown.  The Haskell will be the final leg of an “all stakes Pick 4″ sequence, and offers handicappers a chance to escape with what appears to be a “free square”, effectively reducing the sequence to a glorified pick 3. 

The 3-year-old son of Boundary has been on the shelf since that nightmare in the Belmont back in early June.  Trainer Rick Dutrow and owner Michael Iavarone of IEAH Stables have been searching for answers trying to figure out what went wrong that fateful day.  In the process, there relationship has become, in Iavarone’s words: “strained.” Photographs showing what appears to be a loose shoe and a nail penetrating his hoof (not to mention the insufferable heat/humidity that day) provided all the excuses I needed to draw a line through that last effort.

Now the super-colt returns of a series of stunning workouts, most notably a highly acclaimed 6 furlong move on July 26 at Aqueduct.  Curiously, Big Brown also had a 3 furlong workout on the turf at Aqueduct on Friday, August 1st.  Most likely this was just an attempt to stretch him out a bit and the move to the turf was a final precaution to ensure his feet didn’t take a pounding heading into the Haskell.

All systems would appear to be “go” for Sunday as a field of 7 vies for the Haskell.  The rest of the field only has 2 graded stakes victories amongst them; a grade 2 victory in the Fountain of Youth for Cool Coal Man, and a grade 3 victory in the Barbaro Stakes last out for Magical Forest.

The field with jockeys and odds for the Haskell sets up like this:

  1. Magical Forest (J.F. Chavez) – 10/1
  2. Cool Coal Man (E. Castro) – 4/1
  3. Alaazo (J. Lezcano) – 30/1
  4. Big Brown (K. Desormeaux) – 1/2*
  5. Nistle’s Crunch (E. Trujillo) – 15/1
  6. Coal Play (J. Bravo) – 8/1
  7. Atoned (E. Prado) – 6/1

Right off the bat you’ll notice that there’s not a lot of pure front running speed in the Haskell.  Trying to figure out the early pace is a bit of a head scratcher.  I’m going to guess that Magical Forest down on the rail will be most inclined to go for the lead, andthe rest of the field will probably gladly spot him a length or so up front.  One thing is for certain though, Big Brown won’t be far behind and I’m sure he’ll be breathing down his neck rather than allowing anything like the trip Da’ Tara received in the Belmont to repeat itself.

Most of the field prefer to stalk around 3rd position, andI expect a fairly bunched up group close in behind the early pace.  Cool Coal Man, Big Brown, Nistle’s Crunch, and Coal Play will likely make up this group.  I could see Alaazo and Atoned content to track at the back of the pack early on.

As the field enters the final turn, I expect Big Brown to be inching his nose in front.  Once on the lead there should be no looking for back him.  Either he returns as the Big Brown we all know from his Triple Crown run and smashes this field by 5+ lengths, or something horrible occurs and he finishes out of the money.  It just seems impossible to imagine any of these running past a healthy Big Brown in the stretch.

Trying to figure out place and show runners is the real challenge for handicappers.  Cool Coal Man should be sent at just about the same time as Big Brown.  I could see him getting past Magical Forest and being the only horse with a real shot to upset Big Brown.  I’m still not seeing him being quick enough in the stretch though as he’s never posted a triple digit Beyer speed figure. 

I think you have to respect speed at Monmouth, andas such I’ll leave Magical Forest around in place on my trifecta ticket as well.   Magical Forest was flattered a bit yesterday when Ready Set (third place in Magical Forest’s victory in the G3 Barbaro Stakes on 7/13) came back to win the West Virginia Derby. 

Nistle’s Crunch and Atoned are the x-factors of the race for me.  Nistle’s Crunch is exiting 3 consecutive turf tries that saw him place and show at the G3 level.  He has been effective at today’s 1 1/8 mile distance owning a 2 for3 lifetime record.  Atoned ads blinkers for trainer Todd Pletcher and is a notorious 2nd place finisher (3 slices in 5 starts this year). 

Alaazo and Coal Play appear to be a bit outmatched to me on paper, but Coal Play was able to generate the fields only 100+ Beyer speed figure outside of Big Brown, so I’ll leave him around for show honors. Alaazo is the one I think you can safely toss.  He just hasn’t shown me he can run with these types.

4/1,2,7/1,2,5,6,7 ($12)

For those looking to build a pick 4 ticket around Big Brown, here’s how I see the preceding races – with the obvious single on Big Brown to wind things up:

Race 10: The 42nd Running of the Grade 3 Taylor Made Matchmaker (1 1/8 Miles – Turf)

  • #6 Dyna’s Lassie (8/1)
  • #3 J’ray (7/2*)
  • #8 Social Queen (5/1)
  • #5 Paris Winds (6/1)
  • #4 Waquoit’s Love (9/2)

I’m going to go fairly deep in Race 10 and cover #3 J’ray (7/2), #4 Waquoit’s Love (9/2), #5 Paris Winds (6/1), #6 Dyna’s Lassie (8/1), and #8 Social Queen (5/1).  Being honest with myself I know I’m not anywhere near as good a turf handicapper as I am on dirt, so I’ll spread deep and give myself enough coverage to feel confident that I’ll be alive after the first leg.  I really think any of these guys can win and to be honest I’m a little worried about leaving off #7 Eclisse, but you’ve got to take a stand somewhere(if you can call going 5 deep “taking a stand” on anything).  Hopefully we’ll catch some value here as a reward for going deep. I actually prefer #6 Dyna’s Lassie here at 8/1, for what it’s worth.

Race 11: The Lady’s Secret (1 1/16 Miles – Dirt)

  • #5 Talkin About Love (9/2)
  • #6 Rolling Sea (4/1)
  • #8 Peach Flambe (7/2*)

There looks to be a good amount of front running and speed types in the Lady’s Secret.  I thought this would set up beautifully for #5 Talkin About Love (9/2).  #6 Rolling Sea (4/1) also figures to get a favorable trip and is a multiple Grade 2 winner that I don’t think can be left off the ticket.  Of the speed types, #8 Peach Flambe looks most useful.  She’s been defeated by Hysterical Lady and Buy the Barrel in recent efforts, but was also 2nd to Ginger Punch back in January.  I feel she matches up class wise with this field, but I think the 7/2 luke warm favoritism is an indication of how vulnerable she is coming off a 2 month layoff.

Race 12: The 62nd Running of the Grade 3 Oceanport (1 1/16 Miles – Turf)

  • #7 Presious Passion (5/2*)
  • #4 SIlver Tree (7/2)
  • #3 Ruff and Ready (6/1)

The Oceanport may be the lynch pin to the entire pick 4.  Assuming we’ve made it this far, I felt you could probably rely on the classy Presious Passion up front in an attempt to take them from gate to wire.  He’s been a winner at the Grade 1, 2, and 3 levels and looks to be the one to catch. #4 Silver Tree has won at the Grade 2 and 3 levels and has had a very productive 2008 campaign (4-2-3-0).  Kent Desormeaux’s been aboard for 2 of his last 3 victories and they are reunited today.  He should get a great stalking trip and would have a good chance to gun down Presious Passion in the stretch if that one were to falter.  Ruff and Ready may be the upset specialist here.  You have to go back to January and Februaryto find his last wins, but note that he defeated both Presious Passion and Silver Tree on 2/14.  Hmmmmmmm.  Also note that he’s been matched up against Kip Deville and Einstein before.  I think this guy may be ready to roll and he may have needed that last race at Delaware Park where Silver Tree got him by a length.

All Stakes Pick 4 Ticket: ($45)

  • Race 10: 3,4,5,6,8
  • Race 11: 5,6,8
  • Race 12: 3,4,7
  • Race 13: 4

As always, best of luck to all of you.  Be sure to check for late changes/scratches and make sure you get a look at the field during the post parade for race 10 so you can factor their appearances into the equation.


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Categories : Big Brown, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News

Benny the Bull takes the True North Handicap

8 06 2008

Benny the Bull rallies to take the G2 True North Handicap at Belmont Park on 6/7/08

In one of the happier moments of Belmont Day 2008, Benny the Bull won with a resounding late run down the center of the track in the Grade 2 True North Handicap.  A multiple Grade 1 winner, Benny the Bull ran his lifetime record to 8 wins in 16 starts, including a perfect 3 or 3 in 2008 including previous victories in the Sunshine Millions Sprint at Gulfstream Park and the Golden Shaheen at Nad Al Sheba in Dubai.

Man of Danger, a 10-1 longshot on the morning line, set the early pace.  The second choice at post time was Thor’s Echo, another runner returning from attempts in Dubai, albeit for Thor’s Echo they were unsuccessful attempts. 

As the field turned for home it looked like Benny the Bull was in trouble. He swung wide and for a moment did not appear to be making up any ground on Man of Danger.  In fact, for a distinct moment I thought #4 Abraaj was going to steal the race by getting first jump. However, in a situation that was to repeat itself several hours later, a horse getting out to a  comfortable lead such as Man of Danger was going to make anyone with designs on passing them earn it if they were to prevail. 

Man of Danger dug down and was ultimately nosed at the wire by trainer Rick Dutrow’s accomplished sprinter.  Many had been banking on a Pick 6 that featured logical Dutrow singles on the bookends – and Benny the Bull made many breathe easy for a moment with a seemingly obvious victory in the opening race.

What we should have noticed, however – and what no doubt anyone paying a bit more attention probably picked up on – was the opportunity for lone speed – widely considered one of the safest bets in horse racing – was proving a tough challenge if allowed to get away with a lead. 

Take a look at the form if you still have one.  Man of Danger really doesn’t appear to me to have any business hanging on that well against Benny the Bull.  True, Benny wasn’t quite as explosive as we’ve seen him before – probably a remnant of going halfway across the world and back since March of 2008.  Benny is usually shot out of a cannon when he explodes – and eventually he did indeed find that stride as evidenced by the end of the race – but for much of the stretch he seemed to be laboring more than usual.

Man of Danger had failed to hang on against lesser competition in his last 3 races since prevailing against conditional allowance runners.  Many handicappers probably felt that the inclusion of #1 Saint Damon at the rail would provide enough speed to allow the off-the-pace runners such as Benny the Bull, Abraaj, and Thor’s Echo to close. I was guilty of this myself. Instead once Man of Danger got the clear lead from Saint Damon we had a good ole fashioned fight to the finish – with the better horse prevailing by a nose at the wire.

Benny the Bull’s winning ride was officially clocked at 1:09.06  in the 6 furlong contest.  Edgar Prado was the winning jockey.


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Categories : Belmont Park, Benny the Bull, Horse Racing News

Triple Crown hopes trashed

8 06 2008

Hopes and dreams for a Triple Crown trashed like so much garbage

 

Another year, another chance at a Triple Crown, and the results are the same.  Trash.  Nothing but trash.  Millions are howling today as small fortunes were lost betting on what appeared to be a “sure thing” in the Belmont.  What happened?  What went wrong?  How could the unthinkable have happened?

We should’ve been smarter, is the short answer.  NOTHING in sports is a sure thing, and that goes ten-fold for thoroughbred racing. We’ve been here before.  It’s not like this is the first time we thought we had a “lock” for the Triple Crown, and yet once again we all drank the kool-aid and singled on a horse that appeared to be heads and shoulders above the rest.

I used to tell people every year to “bet the longshot” in the Belmont.  The Derby, I used to say, was a crap-shoot where one of the best horses would win depending on who got the best trip.  The Preakness was the real “fair” test where the best colt usually prevailed.  The Belmont had always been a freak-show of shattered dreams and ridiculous longshots.  On Saturday that trend continued with Da’ Tara – who we last saw losing in the stretch to Roman Emperor – wiring the field as lone speed to return $72 to win in the upset of the year over as-yet undefeated Big Brown.  He was the lone speed in the race.  He had Nick Zito as a trainer.  Why didn’t we give him a better chance? 

To be fair, minutes before the race I loaded up an additional round of tri’s including him in 2nd and 3rd thinking ” he’s a Tiznow colt and he will  be out in front,”  but I never imagined he’d actually win – not with Big Brown’s patented cruising speed.  And yet that’s exactly what happened.

To say this was a disappointment doesn’t do justice to the mood that followed for many on site.  For fans of the sport this was the golden moment we had been waiting for.  The moment where our friends and family, who think we’re half-crazed nuts for being horseplayers, would finally see what it is that captivates us – sheer greatness.  Instead all was lost and now one gets the feeling that the sport may well slip back into obscurity again until another colt (or filly) rises to the occasion and gets our hearts pounding at the prospect of making a run at history. 

On the plus side,  Rick Dutrow’s words finally came back to  haunt him.   Regular readers know I had called on folks to support Big Brown because A) I thought he was unbeatable against these 3 year-olds,  and B) A Triple Crown win was EXACTLY what our sport needed.  Then, Dutrow opened his mouth and started bashing everyone else, including a few uncalled for salvos against my beloved Curlin.   I have to be honest here. Even though I lost a small fortune myself (including pick 4 tickets, trifectas, and a 5-of-6 rebate on a pick 6), it was all worth it to see that guy eat crow after what he had said.  Of course, I feel for the horse and hope he is okay. Everything I’ve read thus far indicates he is, thank god.  Big Brown never did anything himself to warrant hatred just because his trainer had no idea of how to handle with class his moment in the spotlight. 

I also want to be honest here and say that something strikes me about this whole situation as being rather fishy.  I have no proof of this and almost don’t want to suggest it, but does the following situation bother anyone else?  Consider first that Pete Rose is not in the MLB Hall of Fame because he gambled on sports – including games involving his own team – despite the fact that no evidence exists that he ever bet against his own club.  If you’re betting your team to win, where’s the conflict of interest?    Yesterday at Belmont, the potential for something at tad more insidious reared it’s ugly head.  Again, this could be totally wrong, but it’s worth considering if nothing else.   We knew Big Brown had a quarter crack.  We knew he might not be 100%, yet all connected with the horse assured us he was in fine form.   What if the fix was in?   Forgive me for being so negative, but I think you have to be a tad sceptical when tens of millions of dollars are changing hands.  Add to the fact that we’re dealing with Dutrow here – not exactly an ambassador of integrity.

In fairness, the track veterinarian has indicated that the horse was not lame before the race, and that he appeared fine afterwards. Also, for what it’s worth – he looked like a champion to me in the post parade.  I was watching his hoof – he showed no obvious signs of discomfort, and he didn’t really seem to be favoring one leg or the other from what I could see after the race.  Those watching on TV probably got a better look though. I was in a sea of college aged idiots who had pissed me off all day long by taking forever at the betting windows. More on that in a moment.  He (Big Brown) wasn’t sweating at all, and his coat looked fantastic.  Denis of Cork looked like the other standout – with his ears pointed sharply up in an almost jack-rabbit fashion.  I even pointed them out to the folks I was with saying “look at his ears!” 

Oh well.  So goes life I suppose.  As horseplayers you rip up your tickets and move on.  There will be another day, and we’ll have better ones as handicappers.  Some races just leave you scratching your head saying “WTF????” 

For Big Brown, I’m hoping his camp decides to retire him rather than risking a more serious injury.  If it was the hoof that bothered him, then I don’t think he should be pressed on.  They’ve got a $50 million stud deal lined up after all.  Of course, that bothers me on a whole different level, as now I fear we’ll see highly priced offspring that carry on his brittle tendencies.  Not exactly what a sport in dire need of a stamina infusion to the bloodlines needs.

As for the rest of the day – I had a blast, even if we didn’t see history unfold before our eyes.  At the end of the day Curlin is still #1 in the world, and if he goes on to win his remaining races could be looking at a repeat Horse of the Year title – something that would have been next to impossible to accomplish in the shadows of a Big Brown Triple Crown.  I also got to hang out with an old friend, and some very entertaining horseplayers.  I’m hoping to meet up with those guys again at Saratoga later in the summer.  I also got to meet many of my fellow TBA bloggers in person for the first time!  I should have a picture of that which I’ll add below here to this post any moment now.  Perhaps best of all, I had a severely ego-boosting moment when I spied someone reviewing a printout of my Belmont selections in the betting line.  I didn’t say anything to him, but whoever you were mystery man – you made my day. I just hope you were betting one of the winners I gave out and not one of the losers.  I think I was around 50% overall, but I had a few check-marks get across.  Like most of you, I did lose all the big bets thanks to Big Brown. 

The situation at the track couldn’t have been less conducive to having a good time though, so I really want to thank the folks I was with.  The bathrooms stopped working with over 100,000 people on site?  How does that happen?  On the hottest day of the year there’s no running water?  That’s almost criminal.  Someone’s head should roll for that.   I nearly burst a kidney waiting in line for a single port-o-pot before someone spotted me in agony and pointed out an area out-of-sight (and totally unmarked) were several dozen were grouped together.  As if that weren’t bad enough, one of our guys spent all day smoking pulled pork for sandwiches, and had packed lunch and sodas for the entire gang.  Would you believe we couldn’t even bring the cooler in?  That wouldn’t have been so bad if we hadn’t seen NYRA staff consciously turning a blind eye to underage kids dumping out gatorade and replacing it with vodka right in front of their eyes!  Which is worse in your opinion?  Letting a group of serious gamblers who are going to lay down a hefty chunk of change come in with sandwiches, or letting a bunch of 19 year-old college kids get wasted in the sun on pure-grain and vodka?  Apparently the NYRA staff decided on the former.  Unbelievable.   Oh, and these same kids – probably responsible for us getting shut out of race after race.  We’d go to the windows with as many as 15 minutes to post – and you’d literally stand still in line for over 10 minutes.  What the hell could possibly take so long?  Honestly, folks, if you’re reading this – and I know I like to reach out to newcomers here – make sure you know what the hell you’re doing before you get in line.   NOTHING, and I mean NOTHING should take more than 60 seconds at a betting window.  Of course, it doesn’t help when the tellers have never heard of a “wheel” bet and have no clue how to key in anything but a “box” bet.  I know it must be mind blowing to those tellers that not all of us want to burn money on wasted box combination and would prefer to single on top of our tickets.   How unthinkable! 

Honestly, the cumulative result of this is that apart from forays to the nicer tracks such as Saratoga, Del Mar, and Santa Anita, I know I’m largely of the opinion that it’s easier these days to stay at home.   I hate that being the case, but it’s true.  Pimlico I must say did a fantastic job on Preakness day from where I was sitting in the Turfside Terrace, but I suppose that’s to be expected considering the cost of those tickets.  I’m sure the General Admission area was a zoo on Preakness day as well.

So, I’ll sum this up by saying that today is a day for recharging our batteries.  Time to get away from the game for a few days andtake stock of the other things that matter in our life. Friends, family, barbecue and pc wargaming (LOL).

I’ll be back on Friday night for some Hollywood Park action.  You know the saying I’m fond of….hair of the dog that bit me and all, but for now I need to take a breather.  It’s been a long, exhausting Triple Crown season.  The good news is that the summer action is about to start heating up.  In just a few months we’ll get our first look at some of the two year olds whose names we could be talking about this time year.  That’s the beauty of horse racing.  The pain of losing is enormous, but it doesn’t last long.  Thanks for the memories this year, Big Brown – you were magnificent to make me like you despite your trainer’s classlessness.  Here’s wishing you a happy retirement if they chose to hang it up.  For a moment, you had the nation watching with baited breath – and not many colts in history can say that. Read the rest of this entry »


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Categories : Belmont Park, Big Brown, Horse Racing News, Triple Crown Coverage

The ghosts of Belmonts past

22 05 2008

My good friend George sent me an email today that started the old hamster wheels churning in my cobweb filled brain.  Not sure if anyone saw this or not, but Rick Dutrow is apparently a bit upset with Edgar Prado, who rode longshot Riley Tucker in the Preakness, for what he feels was an attempt to box his colt in during the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown.

Source:http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown08/news/story?id=3406888

The story gets a bit dramatic when you consider that Prado is Dutrow’s regular go-to guy for his best mounts.  In fact, Prado was supposed to be Big Brown’s jockey, but due to an injury appears to have missed his date with destiny aboard the super-colt. 

All this got me thinking.  We’ve got the Belmont coming up.  Big Brown’s biggest challenger is likely going to be the lightly raced Casino Drive.  Casino Drive needs a jockey.  Could it be? Nah, you don’t think…could Edgar wind up on him?  We’ll have to wait and see, I guess. In the meantime…

Flashback for a moment to our last bid for a Triple Crown with Smarty Jones in 2004.  Many racing fans still feel that Alex Solis and Jerry Bailey aboard Rock Hard Ten and Eddington ran the race in a fashion that sought to ensure that Smarty Jones would be defeated.  In their defense, these guys aren’t paid to simply let Smarty roll on to history.  Sometimes I think folks forget that rather conveniently.  Regardless, Smarty was never able to settle, and in the end was caught by the longshot Birdstone in the final 100 yards. 

Birdstone was of course ridden by none other than Edgar Prado!  Can you see where this is going? 

How ironic would it be if Prado were able to play the roll of spoiler in yet another Triple Crown quest – a quest he was seemingly destined at one point to be on himself?

Need more irony? Don’t forget that it was Kent Desormeaux who rode Real Quiet in 1998. Real Quiet had of course won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, the second year in a row that trainer Bob Baffert had placed himself in striking distance of a Triple Crown.  Real Quiet was sent by Desormeaux perhaps a bit too early, and was in front by as many as 7 lengths before Victory Gallop started swallowing up ground behind him.  At the wire, Desormeaux’s Real Quiet had been bested by a nose.

That’s the kind of defeat that you just know has to haunt a guy. Will Kent Desormeaux overcome the ghosts of 1998 and unify the Triple Crown for the first time in 30 years?  Or will Edgar Prado get a shot to play spoiler again as he did in 2004?  One thing’s certain, things could get a bit more interesting here as Belmont week approaches. 

I’ve no idea if Prado has a good shot or not to get the call on Casino Drive. I suppose he’s just as likely as anyone else. 

For all the Casino Drive fans out there, don’t forget that Birdstone entered the 2004 Preakness as the “horse for the course” angle, having won the Champagne Stakes as a 2 year old.  History would seem to be on the side of Casino Drive following his run in the Peter Pan Stakes and considering his bloodlines (being a half to Jazil and Rags to Riches – Belmont winners both).


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Categories : Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes, Big Brown, Big Truck, Horse Racing News


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