Old Fashioned puts away Silver City in the Southwest

16 02 2009

 

Old Fashioned, the impressive Larry Jones trained three-year-old son of Unbridled’s Song, faced his toughest challenge yet in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Monday and came out of the race a worthy front runner on the 2009 Kentucky Derby trail. Breaking from post 5, jockey Ramon Dominguez was away sharply before tucking Old Fashioned in behind Silver City in the early going.  As the field turned for home, however, it had already turned into a two horse race between these two as they thundered through the stretch.  Old Fashioned put away Silver City rather handily, while Buzzin and Dreamin just barely avoided being nipped at the wire for show by a late charging Flat Out.

Results Chart

That’s a classy winner right there.  As easy as he made the win look, I think it’s important to remember that many, myself included, thought he would be significantly tested today.  To that end, it  looked like Silver City was indeed going to make him earn every step through the turn and the stretch.  In the end Old Fashioned was simply too much for Silver City to contend with.

The win sets up Old Fashioned as the dominant contender on the Oaklawn circuit.  I mentioned earlier in the weekend during the handicapping selections for the Southwest that he was a nearly unanimous stable selection in the Road to the Roses challenge.  It certainly looks like we’ve all hit gold with this one as he’s likely to be a solid favorite in both the upcoming Rebel (3/14) amd Arkansas Derby (4/11). 

Silver City ran a big race, but ultimately wasn’t able to hang on late in the stretch.  I really liked the way Flat Out was moving late.  Buzzin and Dreamin busted my superfecta ticket by hanging on for third.  Another jump and Flat Out would’ve had Buzzin and Dreamin for show.  Oh well.

In other action across the country, the John Sadler trained filly Evita Argentina came through against the boys in the Grade 2 San Vicente at Santa Anita, under  a beautiful ride by jockey Garrett Gomez.  Gotta tip your hat whenever a filly shows she can take on the boys and win.  I was also happy that she made me look smarter than I am as she appeared to tower over the field in the pre-race handicapping despite being 5/1 on the morning line.  I also managed to hit the super in that one, although the value was nothing like what I had hoped for, even with the morning line favorite finishing 4th.

Things quiet down for a moment on the Derby trail with only the Turf Paradise Derby looming on 2/21.  After that, we’re right back in action with the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and the Grade 3 Sham on 2/28.   All in all this was a good day for us in our Road to the Roses stables as we picked up points for Old Fashioned, trainer Larry Jones, and Garret Gomez aboard Evita Argentina.  Personally, I think Amy’s stable (which I of course helped her set up) is in FANTASTIC shape.  Just look at what she’s got lined up and tell me s he doesn’t have a big chance to score some major points.  My own stables are similar,  but as she did not enter until early this weekend, overall she is in better shape.  After winning with Old Fashioned and Larry Jones today, the rest of her stable sets up like this:

-Notonthesamepage  (Beyer freak appears primed for the G2 Fountain of Youth 2/28 )

-Captain Candyman Can (Probable favorite for the G2 Fountain of Youth 2/28 )

-The Pamplemousse (looms the top selection for the G3 Sham 2/28 )

-Haynesfield (current leader of the NY path to the Derby – next up in the G3 Gotham 3/7)

-Danger to Society (dangerous challenger to Haynesfield in the G3 Gotham 3/7)

-Mr. Fantasy (another who figures to test Haynes field in the G3 Gotham 3/7)

-Friesan Fire (likely favorite for the G2 LA Derby 3/14)

-Patena (IEAH/Dutrow “A-horse” for the Derby?  G2 LA Derby 3/14)

-Pioneer of the Nile (G2 San Felipe 3/14)

Go baby, go!  :)


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Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Old Fashioned, Santa Anita

Evita Argentina takes on the boys in the San Vicente

15 02 2009

Monday’s running of the 7 furlong $150,000 Grade 2 San Vicente at Santa Anita pits the John Sadler trained filly Evita Argentina against 9 colts, including morning line favorite Ventana.  The first grade 2 race eligible for scoring in the Road to the Roses challenge, the San Vicente actually sets up more as a sprint than a true Kentucky Derby prep.  Still, beyond The Pamplemousse, Stardom Bound, and Pioneer of the Nile, there’s  many questions as to how the “best of the rest” stack up.  The San Vicente figures to answer some of those questions.

The field for the San Vicente sets up like this:

  • #1 Wall Street Wodner (Joel Rosario/ Bob Baffert) 10/1
  • #2 Cut The Check (Jose Valdivia Jr./ Walter Solis) 15/1
  • #3 Gato Go Win (Michael Baze/ Jeff Mullins) 6/1
  • #4 Evita Argentina (Garrett Gomez/ John Sadler) 5/1
  • #5 Gallant Son (Leslie Mawing/ Frank Lucarelli) 15/1
  • #6 Smokey Lonesome (Isaias Enriquez/ Art Sherman) 8/1
  • #7 Congor Bay (Patrick Husbands/ Mark Casse) 6/1
  • #8 Point Attended (Cory Nakatani/ Eric Guillot) 6/1
  • #9 Ventana (Rafael Bejarano/ Bob Baffert) 7/2*
  • #10 Leedstheway (Tyler Baze/ Jeff Mullins) 12/1

Ventana is tagged as the morning line favorite, but it’s worth noting that at 7/2 it’s a shaky favoritism at best.  The son of Toccet has been ambitiously placed in graded stakes 3 times in his career, and they happen to be some of his worst performances.  He did have a game effort at 7 furlongs in the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue finishing behind Azul Leon and Jack O’ Lantern.  He was blown away by Pioneer of the Nile and Chocolate Candy next out in the CashCall Futurity (Grade 1), finishing 10th.  He dropped out of the graded stakes level to the listed stakes level in the $70,000 San Pedro, but finished 5th (beaten 2 lengths) by many of today’s rivals, including Congor Bay, Point Attended, and Cut the Check.  All of this taken along with the outside post position in the 9 hole lead me to believe Ventana is a play against on Monday.

Looking at the pace setup for the race, Gato Go Win is a likely candidate to be out in front early and often.  The Jeff Mullins trainee has progressed in his last two starts from maiden special weight up through the N1X Allowance runners.  He’s also shown an ability to hold off close looming challengers in mid race, which he’ll have to do to prevail on Monday.  One thing that might play against Gato Go Win is the presence of some other front running types such as Cut the Check  and potentially Wall Street Wonder. 

If the pace shapes up the way I expect, the race could come down to how well Evita Argentina is moving through the stretch late.  As the lone filly in the race, she’s somewhat disrespected at 5/1 on the morning line, yet still looms as the 2nd favorite.  I expect she’ll take some serious play at the windows though, so 5/1 is likely much better than what we’ll actually get.  I’m thinking closer to 5/2 or 3/1 when all is said and done.  Evita Argentina is a classy filly who has triumphed in the Grade 3 Sorrento, placed in the Grade 2 Santa Ynez, and chased some filly named Stardom Bound around the track in a couple of Grade 1 efforts.  Put plainly, I think she towers over this field.  Add in the Garrett Gomez/John Sadler angle from a jockey/trainer perspective and I’m sold.  I also like that she’s proven at the tricky 7 furlong distance that gives some horses fits.

Looking over the rest of the field, I see a few runners who could over decent value underneath in the single race exotics.  Gallant Son is an interesting runner for Frank Lucarelli who has seemingly been dismissed on the morning line at 15/1.  Like nearly everyone who was defeated in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall at Santa Anita, he “just missed”  finishing 7th and beaten 3 1/2 lengths.  After a layoff, he returned by dropping down into the $100,000 California Derby, where he ran into a horse named Chocolate Candy who would be heavily favored in this field.  He probably needed that race, so don’t be surprised if he is able to find some of that mid 90 Beyer form he displayed last fall.  I give this guy a big chance to hit the board.

Leedstheway is another runner who warrants strong consideration. Not only did he progress straight from maiden breaker to $80,000 optional claimer winner in his first two races, but he also managed to slightly improve upon his speed figures.  That’s usually a good indication of talent when a horse can step up in class and run with the same amount of class.   He’ll be compromised by the outside post, which probably wipes out his win chances, but he should be given a very good chance to wind up on the board as well.

The last  horse I think might get overlooked on the board that should be strongly considered is Wall Street Wonder.  Bob Baffert’s got a sneaky duo in here with the favorite Ventana and Wall Street Wonder.  Don’t be surprised if it’s Wall Street Wonder who winds up best of the two.

I see this one as a race worth taking a stab at with the 10 cent superfecta.  It’s an especially juicy race as there is a strong chance of having the morning line favorite finish out of the first two positions on the results chart.  Usually that’s a key to lighting up the tote board and inflating the odds of other runners, so that’s what we’ll try to do here.  I’ll play Evita Argentina for the win, with Gato Go Win, Gallant Son, and Leedstheway in place.  I’ll add in Wall Street Wonder, Point Attended, and Ventana for show, and will add Congor Bay to them for the bottom of the ticket.

Selections:

(Edit: Upon further reflection, I’m adding #6 Smokey Lonesome to the equation in the  3rd and 4th positions on the ticket, which will boost the total cost of the 10 cent superfecta to $10.80. )

  • $.10 Superfecta: 4/3,5,10/1,3,5,6,8,9,10/1,3,5,6,7,8,9,10 ($10.80)
  • $20 Win #4 Evita Argentina

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Categories : Fantasy Horse Racing, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita

G3 Southwest Selections

15 02 2009

Moving right along with the Road to the Roses, up next we’ve got a showdown between two highly touted rivals at Oaklawn park in the Southwest (G3).  Larry Jones trainee Old Fashioned is the morning line favorite having blown away the last two fields he’s faced by a combined total of 22 3/4 lengths.  He has yet to be truly tested, which figures to change on Monday when he runs into another son of Unbridled’s Song in the impressive Dixieland winner Silver City.

  • Click here for free Brisnet PP’s
  • Also note the new “Road to the Roses” page here on The Aspiring Horseplayer, where we’ll be keeping track of the results and replays for each Derby prep

The field for the Grade 3 $250,000 Southwest (OP, Race 9, 1 Mile) sets up like this:

  • #1 Retap (L. Quinonez/S. Asmussen) 10/1
  • #2 Lock Dubh (J. Court/ J. Talley) 20/1
  • #3 Silver City (M. Mena/W. B. Calhoun) 7/2
  • #4 Gersham (C. Borel/J. Baker) 10/1
  • #5 Old Fashioned (R. Dominguez/L. Jones) 8/5*
  • #6 Buzzin and Dreamin (I. Ocampo/D. Wayne Lukas) 20/1
  • #7 Flat Out (J. A. Garcia/C. Dickey) 6/1
  • #8 Professor Z (C. Emigh/S. Asmussen) 12/1
  • #9 Poltergeist (Q. Hamilton/D. Von Hemel) 8/1
  • #10 Silver Bayer (T. Thompson/D. Vance) 20/1
  • #11 Kick On (K. Tohill/ J. Petalino) 12/1

We’ll tackle the obvious here right off the bat.  The race most likely boils down to what kind of trip Old Fashioned gets.  If jockey Ramon Dominguez can get him to rate a bit and then make his run, I think it will serve the colt well for potential future engagements down the trail.  If , however, he makes an attempt to wire the field, I think he becomes a bit more vulnerable.  So far we haven’t seen Old Fashioned challenged for a lead, but that could be what happens if  Professor Z and Silver Bayer make an effort for the front.   All of that considered, he’s also coming off a 79 day vacation and could be expected to have a minor amount of rust.  The colt’s been working sharply in the mornings though, firing bullets, and looking the part of a nearly unanimous fantasy stable selection.

 

Old Fashioned wins the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct by over 7 lengths (11/29/08)

 

Silver City presents an interesting choice for handicappers.  The knock will be that he’s a  sprinter stretching out for the first time, but like Old Fashioned there are signs that this one could thrive at longer distances as well.  His impressive speed ratings have risen as he’s added ground, going 6 1/2 furlongs for a career long thus far.  He’ll need to get another furlong and a half to be in the mix on Monday.   The upside is that he’s already shown proficiency on the main track here at Oaklawn having won the $50,000 Dixieland on January 16.  He’s another who has been working impressively in the mornings building up to Monday’s showdown.   If there’s a runner in this race that looks capable of taking down the undefeated Old Fashioned, it’s Silver City.

Another runner who may be overlooked is Flat Out for trainer Charles Dickey.  Flat Out powered home to win the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn on January 19.  That race returned  many of today’s rivals as well (Gersham, Professor Z, Silver Bayer).  Like the Southwest, the Smarty Jones just happened to be run at the 1 mile distance.  He’s also extremely lightly raced, having only 3 prior races coming into the Southwest.  Of particular interest is the fact that he was able to improve off of his Beyer figure in his 2nd race while moving forward from maiden special weight to listed stakes company.  That tells me this horse has the talent to compete in a spot like this.

Many players will also be focusing on Poltergeist, who romped home in an Allowance mile last time out at Oaklawn Park. I can’t find any reason to fault backing this colt if you’re looking for an upset, apart from the fact that he has yet to prove he can achieve as high a speed figure when stepping up in class.  To me, that’s what separates him from a runner like Flat Out from a handicapping perspective.

I’ll look for Old Fashioned to show his class and stay in front of Silver City in the stretch. I do think Silver City will make Old Fashioned earn every step of it though.   Flat Out will be coming late and will present the final challenge to Old Fashioned, who should get to the wire with a neck in front.  I’m calling it a win for Larry Jones, but much closer than the experts think (there’s my gratuitous Lee Corso moment). 

Oaklawn features some attractive vertical wagering possibilities, including a 50 cent trifecta and 10 cent superfecta.  When looking for runners to fill out the ticket that might offer some value, consider that Poltergeist looks useful, but I think he ranks a tad lower than Flat Out and Silver City due to his outside post position.  Ditto for Silver Bayer, who ran a big race for 2nd place behind Flat Out in the Smarty Jones.   I also like the look of some of the inside runners to threaten to hit the board for the bottom of the trifectas and superfectas including Retap, Loch Dubh, and Gresham.  Each should offer fairly large value if they manage to get through.  I also can’t totally count out Professor Z or Silver Beyer.  I mean let’s be honest, just about anybody can run 4th, right?

I’ll play Old Fashioned on top with Silver City and Flat Out in place.  Toss in Retap, Loch Dubh, Gresham, and Poltergeist for show.  Add in the rest apart from Kick On for the bottom of the superfecta.

Selections:

  • $.50 Trifecta 5/3,7/1,2,3,4,7,9 ($5.00)
  • $.10 Superfecta 5/3,7/1,2,3,4,7,9/1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9,10 ($7.00)

If you’re playing for the win, value will be there to warrant taking a stab with either Flat Out or Silver City.  They may be worth a spur of the moment play if they look the part in the post parade.  Ultimately, roughly 24 hours in advance here, I’m going to say Old Fashioned is the horse to beat, so come and beat him if you can. 


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Categories : Fantasy Horse Racing, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Old Fashioned

Sam F. Davis kicks off the Road to the Roses

13 02 2009

The Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs this Saturday kicks off the Road to the Roses challenge, and it looks like we’ve got a good one.  Contentions run deep as trainer Ken McPeek sends out Free Country to do battle with Atomic Rain, A.P. Cardinal, Musket Man, and a field of 7 other contenders all attempting to garner much needed graded stakes earning en route to the 2009 Kentucky Derby.   The field sets up like this:

  •  #1 Medaglia d’Onore (D. Centeno/Jamie Sanders) 20/1
  • #2 General Quarters (J. Lopez/Mark Miller) 8/1
  • #3 Player’s List (A. Cox/Wayne Rice) 50/1
  • #4 Mitchell Park (L. Gonzalez/Roy Lerman) 20/1
  • #5 Atomic Rain (J. Velazquez/Kelly Breen) 7/2
  • #6 Cliffy’s Future (P. Lopez/Darrin Miller) 10/1
  • #7 Free Country (K. Desormeaux/ Kenneth McPeek) 3/1*
  • #8 A.P. Cardinal (J. Bravo/Kiaran McLaughlin) 8/1
  • #9 Musket Man (J. Lezcano/Derek Ryan) 9/2
  • #10 Sumo (R. Douglas/Graham Motion) 12/1
  • #11 Top Seed (R. Allen Jr./ Michael Trombeta) 6/1

Free Country and Atomic Rain are familiar foes, having locked horns in the stretch last out in a Gulfstream Park allowance race going 1 1/8 miles.  Atomic Rain was involved up front in a pace duel that day and was able to dig in and hold on for a close second, beaten only by a neck by Free Country.  I’m not sure if Free Country will get the same pace setup today, as it looks like Atomic Rain could have things a bit easier on the front end if he’s able to get away.  Might this set things up for a reversal of fortunes?  Only time will tell.

A. P. Cardinal is an improving son of A.P. Indy that has progressed upwards on the Beyer scale in his last three races.  On paper he’s a shade below the top contenders, but it’s tough to count an improving runner for the Kiaran Mclaughlin barn out of a contest like this.  Taking a look at the competition he’s been facing in each of his last three races, you notice the names Vineyard Haven, Old Fashioned, and Danger to Society.  I expect an improved performance out of A.P. Cardinal on Saturday, but I’ll take a wait and see approach before predicting a victory. 

Musket Man is an interesting and undefeated runner for trainer Derek Ryan.  Clearly he fits with this field as a legitimate contender based on his recent Beyer figure of 92 in the Pasco.  He seems to like the track at Tampa, but today he’ll be asked to go significantly farther than his career long of 7 furlongs.  He’s been training well and figures to be right there turning for home if he can stalk effectively and stay within striking distance of Atomic Rain.

Two  other horses worth considering in this field are General Quarters and Top Seed.   Genearal Quarters ran second to Musket Man last out and also has a close second to Top Seed two races back.  He’s a Sky Mesa colt, so he ought to be able to stretch out for the distance of the Sam F. Davis.  Top Seed would be a much stronger contender if he hadn’t drawn the extreme outside, but do note that he prevailed from the 12 hole last out on this track, meaning he can’t be left out of the equation.

I’m going to go with the Ken McPeek runner, Free Country for the win.  McPeek has had some down luck lately, losing potential Derby threat Danger to Society to Rick Dutrow after finishing 7th in the Holy Bull earlier this month. Remember that this is the guy credited with finding Curlin.  McPeek has had a smashing season so far in his return to training, and part of me would simply like to see him get a legitimate Derby hopeful on the right path by prevailing here in the Sam F. Davis.   You won’t hear me argue, however, with anyone who decides to take Atomic Rain for the win, for as I mentioned earlier the pace may be more favorable to him today.

Underneath I’ll cover Atomic Rain, Top Seed, and A. P. Cardinal.  I’ll add in General Quarters and Musket Man for show.

$1 Trifecta:  7/5,8,11/2,5,8,9,11 ($12)

In the other major prep of the day covered in the Road to the Roses, I like Chocolate Candy to continue his march on the Derby trail by prevailing in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Tampa Bay Downs

Road to the Roses stable

11 02 2009

The past few nights have been rather hectic as I’ve raced home from work and immersed myself in the yearly right of passage that is making my stable selections for the Road to the Roses fantasy challenge.  Ten horses, 2 trainers, and 2 jockeys – that’s what you pick.  You amass points by finishing in the money in major prep races over the better part of 3 months.  I can’t say I’ve had a lot of success with it, but I’m learning from my past and trying out new things in an effort to win the top glory that comes with having a winning stable.

I’ve named mine “The Aspiring Horseplayer” so that it’s connected with this blog.   Last year I believe I was “Stafford Stables”, but those responsible for the nightmare that turned into late in the challenge have been sacked (and those responsible for sacking those who have been sacked have also been sacked, and so on).  I started out well, but in the end was way too California heavy in ’08, with Colonel John, Georgie Boy, El Gato Malo, and Gayego.  No way I’m making that mistake this year.

Let’s start with the difficult part.  I’m not taking the horse that I believe would win the Derby if it were run today:  Vineyard Haven.   I know that seems counter intuitive, but there’s a solid strategic reason for this.  He’s prepping in Dubai at the moment, and probably won’t get his first opportunity to earn points for my stable until the UAE Derby on 3/28.  That is a Grade 2 (worth 12 points for a win), but there should be a “supplemental draft” after the first month of the contest, granting me a chance to swipe him after 3/14 as one of up to 3 additional runners I can add to my stable.   I’ll take the wait and see approach for now as I’ll need the potential for points from those limited stable positions.

I’m also not taking Stardom Bound, despite being a fairly big “Stardom Bound guy.”  I think the world of her, but the fact that she’ll be taking on the likes of Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse, and only IF she stays on the Derby trail (which is by no means a foregone conclusion) means that I”ll have to pass on her for now as well.

The top 5 picks for the stable are essentially a player’s “Simon Peter” – the rock, the foundation upon which the rest of the franchise is built.  For my top five, I’m taking Old Fashioned, Pioneer of the Nile, Friesan Fire,  Patena, and Captain Candyman Can.  I did not arrive at this grouping without much debate, however.   The first three were “no brainers” in my opinion, especially with Old Fashioned pointed towards a very reachable win right out of the gate in the Southwest Stakes on Saturday.  Likewise Pioneer of the Nile seems pointed now towards the San Felipe on 3/14 (just before the supplemental draft period) and the Santa Anita Derby after that.   Friesan Fire has simply done nothing wrong and everything right.  Patena and  Captain Candyman Can are risks though.  Patena might be Rick Dutrow and IEAH’s “A horse” judging from recent comments.  That said, he’s still a largely unknown and unproven colt.  Captain Candyman Can could be a one turn horse, but then again the Fountain of Youth has been shortened in distance, so keep that in mind. 

  • Old Fashioned (G3 S.West Stakes 2/14)
  • Pioneer of the Nile (G2 San Felipe 3/14)
  • Friesan Fire (G2 LA Derby 3/14)
  • Captain Candyman Can (G2 FOY 2/28)
  • Patena (G2 LA Derby 3/14)

The name of this game is about racking up points and keeping as many runners with real chances of finding the winners circle each week as you can.  I mentioned that I wasn’t covering as many California runners, and that I wasn’t going to play Stardom Bound (at least not yet).  You may notice from below that another name is missing.  The Pamplemousse.  Why?  Well , for starters he’s probably really only a safe play as of right now for the G3 Sham on 2/28.  While that would be some nice early points to rack up, I’m not sure how much of a threat he’d be against Pioneer and Stardom Bound if he tried the SA Derby.  Besides, like I said, I’m going CA light this year.

The bottom of my stable is a place to take some shots.  You don’t want to get too cray here as you’ll need to depend on most (if not all) of the horses you select, but things get interesting when you get to this level of the rankings.  Haynesfield sticks out as an obvious play for the NY preps (G3 Gotham, G1 Wood Memorial), but he’s probably not the lock folks think he is.  I think you have to cover him, as he’s been very impressive beating suspect quality, but I don’t think you can stand on him alone for those preps, and the Wood is a G1 you definitely want to hit.  For that reason, I’m taking Mr. Fantasy as well.  He’s got two impressive Beyers and looks like a horse that could give Haynesfield fits as the distances continue to challenge the talented Speightstown colt.   As if that weren’t enough, I’m also going to cover the new edition to Rick Dutrow’s barn, Danger to Society.  Originally I was not high on this guy, but I’m taking the advice of author and journalist Richard Eng, who won this contest a few years ago.  If he’s good enough for him to take a stand on, he’s good enough for me.  Coincidentally, another friend of this site, Cindy Pierson-Dulay, is also listed as one of the pros.  I’ve got to admit, it feels pretty cool when folks listed as pros are people you’ve actually met and talked about horse racing with.  Hats off to each of them.

I’ll round out my stable with the impressive runner up finisher Flying Pegasus, who looks like a horse that will improve greatly next out with a more favorable post position.  I may be overrating this guy, but if so it would appear to be a mistake that many are making.  He’s probably(along with Patena) the biggest “buzz” horse at the moment I’m seeing whispered in Facebook discussions and horse racing boards.  We’ll see.  I’ll take a stab with my 9th slot on him since he is pointing to either the Fountain of Youth or Louisiana Derby (or perhaps the Rebel).  My last slot will go to Hello Broadway, who but for what in my opinion was a far from perfect ride from Edgar Prado, might have defeated Captain Candyman Can in the Hutcheson.  I’m willing to give him another try as he seemed a worth favorite before fading late in the stretch.

  • Haynesfield (G3 Gotham 3/7)
  • Mr. Fantasy (G3 Gotham 3/7)
  • Danger to Society (G3 Gotham 3/7)
  • Flying Pegasus (?)
  • Hello Broadway (?)

I’m taking Rick Dutrow and Larry Jones as my trainers.  Strange, I know, for someone who isn’t the biggest Dutrow fan in the world, but the man seems loaded with talent this year.  Ditto for Larry Jones, who figures to go out on top with his first Derby win.  If there’s a sense of justice in the universe for what befell the man last year, he’ll be the champion this year. 

Jockey wise I’m going with Gabriel Saez and Garrett Gomez.  Saez because I feel when teamed up with Larry Jones makes the most formidable tandem in the country with 3-year-olds, and Go-Go  because, well, he’s Garrett Gomez.  Need I really say more?

Hopefully you are all playing along as well.  If you’re interested in joining the TBA League, contact Handride and he’ll send you the activation code.  Or you could join our small, but growing Facebook group.  Yes, we have a presence on Facebook.  Just head to our homepage and follow the links to the Facebook group.  I can picture myself dancing like Dr. Evil when I say that.  “What?  I’m hip. I’m cool.”    :)


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Baby Curlin – When You Were Young

9 02 2009

Anyone familiar with the Guitar Hero and Rock Band video game series has no doubt rocked out, at least once, to the anthem “When You Were Young” by The Killers.  Go ahead and right click on that to open it in another window to listen along if you like.  I always enjoy finding music that makes me think of my favorite race horses, and for quite some time I’ve associated this song with seeing Curlin as a magnificent early 3-year old with a world of potential and the sky as his ceiling.

“…You sit there in your heartache
Waiting on some beautiful boy to
save you from your old ways
You play forgiveness
Watch it now … here he comes! “

From the moment he first entered our lives, our worlds changed.  Curlin became a horse of great importance.  A dashing colt who went from maiden to World Champion in little more than a year.   An almost fairy tale like hero who dominated the dirt division on his way to a record  $10 million+  in lifetime earnings.

“…He doesn’t look a thing like Jesus
But he talks like a gentleman
Like you imagined when you were young .” 

We’ve  cheered  him as a Preakness winner.  We’ve watched in awe as he won the Classic.  Through eternal glory in the  Dubai World Cup and courageous defeat in the Belmont.  All the while, we have watched.  Then, just when we thought we’d seen it all (“just like Bogart and Bacall”), something comes around to remind you that there’s much left to discover.   There are hidden gems that are worth seeking out, as they only add to the legacy of a colt for all times. 

 “…We’re burning down the highway skyline
On the back of a hurricane that started turning
When you were young
When you were young .”

I don’t have authorization to post the photo, so you’ll have to follow the link below for now.  Just know that in two years of searching, this is the first image of “baby Curlin” that I’ve ever encountered.  Here he is as a weanling at Fares Farms in Lexington, KY:

http://www.faresfarms.com

Two things stand out to me.  Firstly, the muscles in his hind section look powerful for that age. Not that I’m an expert on young horses though. Far from it.  I defer to anyone with experience on the subject.   They just look massive.  Secondly, his front shoulder/chest area seems to hint at the jaw dropping physique he will one day possess.

“…And sometimes you close your eyes
and see the place where you used to live
When you were young .”

So there’s our boy as a young lad.  The world would be his oyster, and at that moment in time nobody on earth could have foreseen the honor that would be his.  There are times in life when greatness enters your presence.   I’ll always remember the early spring of 2007 as the age when I first became aware of Curlin.  

As the Derby trail continues to heat up, here’s hoping somebody else steps forth to grab our attention in “that away”, which reminds us why we came to love this game and what it means to be a fan.

I’ll be back Wednesday with some thoughts on constructing my “Road to the Roses”  stable.  If you haven’t signed up yet - what are you waiting for?  “Do it!!!”  Do it now!!!”  


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Categories : Curlin, Horse Racing News

Saturday Derby Prep Selections

6 02 2009

Another Saturday – another weekend of exciting prep races building up to the 2009 Kentucky Derby.  This weekend we’ve got several key preps including the Grade 3 Risen Star, the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis, and, due to the fact that Stardom Bound makes her 3-year-old debut, The Grade 1 Las Virgenes.   There’s also the Whirlaway at Aqueduct, but that one looks like a one horse show for Haynesfield.  At least the others appears to be less of a “sure thing” – even with the two-year-old champion filly Stardom Bound in the mix.

We’ll start at Fair Grounds with the 36th running of the Grade 3 Risen Star

G3 Risen Star (1 1/16 Miles)

  • #1 Map of the World (Albert Stall Jr./ C.C. Bourque) 20/1
  • #2 Indygo Mountain (William B. Calhoun/ H.J. Theriot) 10/1
  • #3 Nowhere to Hide (Nick Zito/Corey Lanerie) 15/1
  • #4 It Happened Again (Larry Jones/T. Thompson) 10/1
  • #5 Uno Mas (Steve Asmussen/ B. J. Hernandez) 8/1
  • #6 Friesan Fire (Larry Jones/ Gabriel Saez) 7/2
  • #7 Giant Oak (Chris Block/ Edgar Prado) 3/1*
  • #8 Dumar (Steve Asmussen/ Sean Bridgmohan) 20/1
  • #9 Code of Honour (William Bennett/ R. Toups) 20/1
  • #10 Soul Warrior (Steve Asmussen/ P. Valenzuela) 6/1
  • #11 Summer’s Empire (Anthony Mitchell/J. Campbell) 8/1
  • #12 Flying Pegasus (Ralph Nicks/Robbie Albarado Jr) 6/1
  • #13 Au Moon (David Carroll/Jordan Leparoux) 8/1

 This sets up on paper as a clash between top 3-year-olds Friesan Fire and Giant Oak.  Somewhat surprisingly (at least to me), Giant Oak is listed as the slight favorite at 3/1 compared to Friesan Fire’s odds of 7/2.  I had expected it to be the other way around and was prepared to select Giant Oak for the mild upset.  Now I’m not so sure.  To be fair, 3/1 isn’t a bad price if you’ve got to eat chalk, and it is rather difficult to separate these two. 

I tend to be rather “sometimey” when it comes to Friesan Fire.  I’d love to see Larry Jones turn the tables on last year’s tragedy by capturing his first Derby title, and Friesan Fire would appear to be his top contender to do so.  The son of A.P. Indy took a bold move forward on the Beyer progression scale when defeating Patena and Au Moon in the Lecomte last month.  That being said, he’s also known defeat to both Uno Mas and Flying Pegasus.  You know Larry Jones will have him ready to run, as the man is simply one of the best trainers on the planet (especially with 3-year-olds), and he’s teamed up once again with his ace, jockey Gabriel Saez.  Perhaps even more importantly, while fresh, he’s got some recent races under his belt, something his main rival today cannot say.

Giant Oak is a horse that could be any type.  He also made a tremendous move forward last November when placing in  the Kentucky Jockey Cup.  He wound up sandwiched between Beethoven and Captain Candyman Can, two very useful runners  – the latter moving up Derby rankings as we speak.  He’s been working very sharply and came off of  a shorter layoff to post that 90 Beyer speed figure last out…but will he be ready to go 8.5 furlongs having been off over 2 months?  My guess is he will be, but he might need a race before he’s ready to produce a truly top effort. 

Larry Jones has another one worth checking out in this race in It Happened Again.  I’ve yet to see this one run, but he looks like a potential thief here.  Toss out his debut and his first try against winners and he looks playable here.  Although, his only effort on the main track here at Fair Grounds left much to be desired.   Uno Mas, Flying Pegasus, and Au Moon all look like contenders underneath that you’ve got to toss into the 10 cent superfecta equation, which I’ll play with Friesan Fire on top:

6/4,5,7/4,5,7,12,13/4,5,712,13  ($3.60)

 

Moving onto the Santa Anita features….

The Grade 1 Las Virgenes (1 Mile)

  • #1 Navigator (Ron Ellis/Victor Espinoza) 6/1
  • #2 African Skies (Patrick Biancone/ Joe Talamo) 30/1
  • #3 Century Park (Bob Baffert/ Tyler Baze) 20/1
  • #4 Nan (Craig Dollase/Cory Nakatani) 20/1
  • #5 Stardom Bound (Bobby Frankel/Michael E. Smith) 3/5*
  • #6 Haka (Christophe Clement/Rafael Bejarano) 10/1
  • #7 Saucey Evening (Graham Motion/Garrett Gomez) 8/1
  • #8 Toro Bonito (Bob Baffert/John Velazquez) 15/1
  • #9 Pinkarella (Doug O’Neill/ John Rosario) 8/1

All eyes will be on the 2-year-old champion filly, Stardom Bound, as she makes her 3-year-old debut at her “home track.”  The amazing daughter of Tapit  made believers out of her doubters by absolutely dominating in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last October.  Since then she’s been on the shelf, being carefully prepared for a possible run in this year’s Kentucky Derby – where she might attempt to make history by being the first filly since Winning Colors to win the nation’s most famous race.  First things first though, she’s going to have to shake off some rust and put away this field, which has a few runners capable of giving her a significant challenge.

Navigator will get a lot of attention, and rightly so as an apparent front running type in what might otherwise be a paceless race, but I see her biggest threat as being the Graham Motion runner Saucey Evening.  The Cal Cup Juvenile Fillies winner seems to enjoy the surroundings at Santa Anita as much as Stardom Bound, and should be looking to close into whatever pace materializes in front of them.   She appears to be on the improve and might wind up getting first jump on the champ as they attempt to close.  It’s going to be a tall order, but is it really that hard to support an 8/1 horse with an apparent big chance over an obvious 3/5 favorite like Stardom Bound?  I didn’t think so.  She’s got a chance, and a chance at 8/1 is usually good enough for me. 

Of the others, Pinkarella looks useable underneath, as does Haka.  I wouldn’t seel Toro Bonito too shourt either, as she has a tendency to end up in or near the money in every race (apart from her last where she finished 7th).   Lastly, the Bob Baffert entry Century Park is coming off a Grade 3 win, and offers fairly solid value underneath at 20/1.

Don’t get me wrong, this one almost certainly goes to Stardom Bound, but I’ll take a flyer in a rare departure from my “Captain Obvious” habits in the 10 cent superfecta here:

7/1,5/1,3,5,6,8,9/1,4,5,6,8,9  ($4.00)

 

The Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis  (1 1/16 Miles)

  • #1 Bittel Road (Todd Pletcher/ John Velazquez) 6/1
  • #2 Pioneer of the Nile (Bob Baffert/Garrett Gomez) 2/1*
  • #3 Papa Clem (Gary Stute/Rafael Bejarano) 8/1
  • #4 I Want Revenge (Jeff Mullins/Joe Talamo) 5/2
  • #5 Mark S the Cooler (Doug O’Neill/ Cory Nakatani) 12/1
  • #6 Oil Man (John Sadler/Michael E. Smith) 15/1
  • #7 Brother Keith (Bobby Frankel/Tyler Baze) 10/1
  • #8 Shafted (Marke Casse/ J. Rosario) 8/1
  • #9 Charlie’s Moment (Walther Solis/Jose Valdivia Jr) 20/1

We move to the boys for the 71st running of the Robert B. Lewis.   Pioneer of the Nile is the big gun here, coming off a victory in the Cash Call Futurity that depending on who you talk to was either visually impressive or nothing to write home about.  Based on the fact that the third place finisher, Chocolate Candy, went  on to win his next out at Golden Gate, I’ve been gradually growing fonder of that effort.   The son of Empire Maker can handle the distance, we know that, and has been working like a bat out of hell.  As of right now it’s between him and The Pamplemousse for the top 3-year-old colt on the left coast.  Only trouble is, as has been widely reported, he doesn’t really “need” this race.  He’s probably already a Derby lock.  How might that affect things in the race?  Probably not too much, but it might be worth taking a stand against him and looking for value elsewhere, even though as in the Las Virgenes that means playing into the teeth of a worthy favorite. 

So who might the main competition be?  Some folks will side with Brother Keith, for trainer Bobby Frankel – a man who has had success in this race in the past.   Brother Keith had a nice workout here on Monday and could be prepped for his best effort now that jockey Tyler Baze has hopped aboard.  I’m not sold though.  He’s probably going to be a major part of whatever happens up front pace wise, but I need to see more of a killer instinct from him (which is possible) before I can back him.

I Want Revenge is an obvious choice having finished well gainst Pioneer of the Nile in the CashCall.   Like his rival, he’s been freshened and has been working well in the mornings.  The son of Stephen Got Even is seemingly a lock to hit the board, having been in the money in all 5 lifetime starts. 

Bittel Road is another interesting possibility, and one I’d actually give a big chance on Saturday.  In his only two sub-par performances he’s been stuck outside in wide post positions.  He moves to the rail today and returns to the steady hand of jockey John Velazquez, who guided him to victory in the first two starts of his career.  He’s also out of the Todd Pletcher barn, and one thing you know for certain is that Pletcher likes to get a bunch of ‘em ready for the Derby.  This might be one of the sneakier components of his arsenal.  He’ll need to bring his best, but note that he made a sneaky ‘middle move’ from 6th to 4th before fading against Pioneer in the Cash Casll.  Right now he’s probably considered a better turf runner than main track runner, but his only main track effort was at Hollywood, which plays a bit closer to true dirt in my opinion than the often turf-impersonating Pro Ride of Santa Anita.  Don’t sell this guy short.  At 6/1 he could go off at double digit odds, in which case he’s an obvious play.

I’ll keep Pioneer of the Nile on top for now, but may go bombing with Bittel Road if the odds are right.   I Want Revenge, as previously mentioned, is an obvious player to use as well.   The others I’d give chances to round out the ticket include Papa Clem,  Brother Keith, Shafted, and Charlie’s Moment.  I’m not a Mark the Cooler fan and would much prefer the 20/1 odds of Charlie’s Moment underneath than the 12/1 offered on Mark the Cooler.

2/1,4/1,3,4,7,8,9/1,3,4,7,8,9 ($4.00)

In other quick pick action, I’ll take Grasshopper in the Mineshaft (Fair Grounds), Haynesfield in the Whirlaway (Aqueduct), and Cowboy Cal in the Strub.

Best of luck to everyone, and as the rains have been heavy at Santa Anita this week, be sure to check for late changes and scratches.


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Categories : Fair Grounds, Handicapping Selections, Pioneer of the Nile, Santa Anita, Stardom Bound

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