Florida Derby & Swale Stakes Selections

20 03 2010

As the unstoppable procession towards the “greatest 2 minutes in sports” in the 2010 Kentucky Derby continues, we find ourselves at an important crossroads with significant Grade 1 earnings on the line in the Florida Derby.

Several horses have used the Florida Derby as an important step along the way to eventual victory on the first Saturday in May, including Big Brown (2008),  Barbaro (2006), and Monarchos (2001).  Additionally, the Grade 2 Swale Stakes will also offer an opportunity for horses in need of graded stakes earnings as they attempt to secure a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby.

Our top 10 lists have been fluctuating from week to week.  The question that remains to be answered now is who will step forward this weekend and demand that we take notice?  We’ll attempt to answer that question by looking first at the Swale Stakes.

Grade 2 Swale Stakes – Gulfstream Park Race 10  (5:45 PM ET)

The Swale Stakes isn’t one of the more glamorous Kentucky Derby prep races, as it is only contested over a distance of 7 furlongs.  Still, nine horses have entered in the $150,000 race, headlined by the Rick Dutrow trained D’funnybone; winner of the Grade 2 Hutcheson last out.  The field sets up like this:

  • #1 Here Ye Hear Ye (15/1)
  • #2 Silver Craft (15/1)
  • #3 Ibboyee (4/1)
  • #4 City Trooper (6/1)
  • #5 Fearless Cowboy (10/1)
  • #6 Dixie Band (6/1)
  • #7 D’Funnybone (6/5*)
  • #8 Gary D (12/1)
  • #9 Privilaged (20/1)

D’FUNNYBONE is deserving of the morning line favoritism.  The only time we’ve ever seen this horse turn in a sub-par race was when he was stretched out over the Santa Anita Pro Ride in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last Autumn.  At the 7 furlong distance, the son of D’wildcat (winner of the 2001 Swale Stakes) is absolutely lethal.   His typical race is to sit just off the early speed in around the 3rd position through the opening calls, and then motor out in front as the field turns for home, often pulling away in deep stretch.  This is a classy horse, and one that typically makes a fairly strong post parade impression.

From a pace standpoint, it looks like GARY D could be the horse setting the early fractions. Longshots FEARLESS COWBOY and HEAR YE HEAR YE also have shown a bit of speed in previous races, although more recently they’ve attempted to relax just a bit in the early going.  Regardless of who sets the pace, this race will be all about D’FUNNYBONE.

If you can’t stomach the 6/5 favoritism on D’FUNNYBONE, there are a couple of horses worth considering for the upset here.  Todd Pletcher sends out IBBOYEE following a 3rd place finish to D’FUNNYBONE in the Hutcheson that saw him bumped at the start of the race.  IBBOYEE fought back to finish 3rd, only beaten by 2 lengths.  This is a horse who has won 3 stakes races, but had the misfortune of running into today’s rival in the Hutcheson and the highly regarded Medaglia d’Oro colt Laus Deo in the Count Fleet (January 10).  If the son of Medalist can put it all together today, IBBOYEE rates a chance at pulling off the upset.

Another horse that looks somewhat interesting here is DIXIE BAND.  The son of Dixie Union opened his career with 3 consecutive victories, including the Grade 3 in the Arlington-Washington Futurity Stakes last September in which he beat a decent horse in Piscitelli.  The down side, of course, is that he’s been on the shelf since an extremely disappointing 10th place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (Grade 1) at Keeneland.

Obviously something went wrong that race, and while he’s been training well for this race, I think we all learned last weekend just how rusty a horse can be coming off a 5-month layoff, as we watched in disbelief as the 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra didn’t quite seem her usual lethal self in the New Orleans Ladies.  Even so, my suspicion is that this is a classy horse and that he’ll run a decent race today.

As for the rest of the field, I think HEAR YE HEAR YE and SILVER CRAFT are worth considering when filling out your trifecta and superfecta tickets. Either of them could wind up hitting the board at 15/1 and bring some much needed value to your tickets.  I’m also going to add in GARY D to my plays, just in case he does get loose on the lead.

Selections:

  • #7 D’Funnybone (6/5*)
  • #3 Ibboyee (4/1)
  • #6 Dixie Band (6/1)


Grade 1 Florida Derby – Gulfstream Park Race 11 (6:20 PM ET)

Eleven horses have entered for the featured prep race of the day, including Todd Pletcher trainee Rule, who currently sits at #5 in our most recent Kentucky Derby rankings. Due to the entry of “Barbaro’s little brother”, Lentenor, the odds on the tote board might get tilted a bit out of whack for this race, which could make it either more appealing or less appealing from a betting standpoint, depending on which way those winds end up blowing.

The field sets up like this:

  • #1 Soaring Empire (20/1)
  • #2 Lentenor (6/1)
  • #3 Pulsion (12/1)
  • #4 Pleasant Prince (15/1)
  • #5 Game On Dude (12/1)
  • #6 First Dude (8/1)
  • #7 Rule (5/2*)
  • #8 Ice Box (15/1)
  • #9 Miner’s Reserve (6/1)
  • #10  Best Actor (20/1)
  • #11  Radiohead (3/1)

RULE is the obvious horse to focus on here.  Todd Pletcher’s runaway winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes blew away a seemingly talented horse in Schoolyard Dreams last out while wiring the field going 8.5 furlongs.  Will an extra half furlong today make any difference?  Those looking to defeat the son of Roman Ruler will have to hope so.  What I’m more interested in is seeing whether Pletcher and jockey Johnny Velazquez can get the colt to relax a bit early on?  So far the Kentucky Derby contenders have no shortage of speed and pace-pressing types, so a continued front running style might put him at a disadvantage come the first Saturday in May.

If he does want the lead, RULE might find he has some company today, due primarily to the entry of MINER’S RESERVE.  Technically, RADIOHEAD is another who could be running right out of the gate, but I suspect they’ll try to relax the son of Johannesburg on the stretchout today.

Whichever way he goes, RULE is the obvious horse to beat, although evidently “the Dude abides” if you are going to take a shot and try to beat him.

Seriously, man, what’s with all the Dude named horses in here?  If you’re as big a fan of The Big Lebowski as I am, you might have to take a shot on one of them based on who makes the stronger post parade impression.  Both FIRST DUDE and GAME ON DUDE only recently graduated from the maiden ranks, although GAME ON DUDE does have experience against winners last out at the allowance level.

So what do we make of Barbaro’s brother, LENTENOR?  Barbaro did use the Florida Derby as a stage to announce his Kentucky Derby candidacy, and obviously it would be the feel-good story of the week if LENTENOR were somehow able to pull off the upset.  My sense of things is that the outpouring of affection for anything Barbaro related will cause LENTENOR’s odds to be lower than they should be.  He’s a fine horse, and I think has every right to improve in this race in his first start on dirt.  Still, he might be a horse worth rooting for, while allowing your wallet to go in a different direction.  I give him a shot to the board, personally, but I’ll be mildly (and pleasantly, mind you) surprised if he does something more.

The longshot I’m really focused on is SOARING EMPIRE at 20/1.   First of all, he’s an Empire Maker colt, and those tend to improve with each start and as the distances get longer.  Secondly, this will be the 2nd start in his form cycle since his layoff at the end of 2009.  That’s usually a time when horses can be expected to make significant improvements on the track.  I also like that he comes from off-the-pace, and thus might stand to benefit if something crazy happens at the front of the pack.  He tossed a bullet workout on March 14 in preparation for this race.  Look for a big run today from a horse offering plenty of value on the tote board.

Another off-the-pace type to keep an eye on is ICE BOX.  If you toss that last race where he ran into a monster (Esekendereya) and never really had a chance after blowing the start, this was an improving son of Pulpit for trainer Nick Zito.  As we’ve mentioned before, this Kentucky Derby crop is in need of some closers stepping forward and securing starting spots in an effort to break up the potential speed fest we have approaching.  ICE BOX has also been tossing bullet workouts in the mornings, and will be entering the equally as crucial 3rd start off of his 2009 ending layoff.  I feel this horse is better than most people may think, and he was headed in the right direction prior to the Fountain of Youth.  If he runs back to his prior form, he could be a player in here.

The chances of MINER’s REWARD might depend on what RULE does early on.  If the two engage in a speed battle early on, look for SOARING EMPIRE and ICE BOX (among others) to be the primary beneficiaries.  If, however, one or the other gets loose on the lead, well then I think we all know how dangerous they could be.  This son of Mineshaft appears to be a talented colt, having put up impressive speed figure totals in his maiden breaker last out, but he also finds himself in the disadvantageous 9 hole today, and thus might be forced to push it more than his connections would prefer from early on.

BEST ACTOR is another who put up noteworthy speed figures last out, but note that he ran into a horse in Drosselmeyer in that race who ran rather flat in his next start.  I’m not sure what to make of that performance?  He’s been on the shelf since January, although the workout tab does look enticing since then. My hunch is that he’s a notch below the top horses in here, although I did love his father, Rock Hard Ten, and would love to see him move forward.

Finally we come to RADIOHEAD.  He’s a creep.  He’s a weirdo.  What the hey is he doing here?  He don’t belong here.  Although, he does have a perfect body, and has a perfect soul.  He wants us to notice when he’s not around.  He’s so very special.  I wish I was special.

Yes, the horse with the awesome name from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile returns following an impressive allowance level victory last out here at Gulfstream, where he defeated a well thought of colt in Homeboykris.  The question for Radiohead is whether he really is a creep that doesn’t belong here?  In other words, will that “perfect body and perfect soul” allow him to get 9 furlongs on his best stuff?  We’ll have to wait and see.  The post position may not have helped the situation though, so I’m going to consider him a play against for the win honors at odds of 3/1.  If those odds trend upwards, he could be worth considering, as I do think he’s a talented colt that has a shot here – I just don’t think 3/1 matches what I’m willing to accept from a risk/reward standpoint.

Selections:

  • #7 Rule (5/2*)
  • #1 Soaring Empire (20/1)
  • #8 Ice  Box (15/1)

Best of luck to everyone – Up next will be a new edition of our Kentucky Derby rankings following this weekend’s races.


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Kentucky Derby Trail

Kentucky Derby Rankings – Third Times a Charm

14 03 2010

Odysseus (#7) and the field for the Tampa Bay Derby pass the stands on Saturday 3/13. Photo by Natalie Keller Reinert: http://retiredracehorseblog.wordpress.com/

Our third edition of the Derby watch list and the first time I think we may have definitively found our horse for the first Saturday in May.  The past weekend saw the validation of two runners on our previous Kentucky Derby watch list that were absent from many others.  My personal favorite and then #2 ranked horse Odysseus turned in an against-all-odds photo finish victory against Schoolyard Dreams in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby.

Would you believe that even the DRF Derby Watch List that came with the Saturday (3/13) edition of the Form didn’t have Odysseus listed in their top 20 horses?  Big mistake.  Granted, he had no graded stakes earnings at the time, but they had to know he was a player for the Tampa Bay Derby.  Hopefully he gets some more respect this time around.

For all those who still don’t believe that Odysseus got there in the photo finish for the Tampa Bay Derby, check out this picture for definitive proof.

Our previous #10 horse, Sidney’s Candy also triumphed over such contenders as Interactif, American Lion, Dave in Dixie and Caracortado in the Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita.  Nice going Sidney! Way to reward my faith in you as one of the 3-year-olds to keep an eye on.

Everybody had Lookin at Lucky in the Grade 3 Rebel at Oaklawn, so that one comes as no surprise.  Although the performance itself was as impressive as they come.  This horse looks like the real deal to me.

So, in case you missed the action (what were you, living under a rock???), there’s a quick recap.  Without further adieu, here’s our updated top 10 Kentucky Derby rankings as of 3/14/2010.

  • #1 Odysseus

It’s time to make the bold move and place my boy squarely in the top spot.  Has he proved himself better than Lookin at Lucky or Eskendereya?  Absolutely not.  But this colt has heart and tremendous upside, and he reaffirmed everything I thought about him with that gutsy victory in the Tampa Bay Derby this weekend.  Everyone knows I’m a sucker for a good chestnut, and I’ve made no attempt to hide my affection for this colt ever since I first laid eyes on him back in mid-February. He’s my Derby horse. I know he’s green as can be in the stretch and looked like he lost interest at times in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I remember another chestnut named Curlin who looked green in the stretch at this point in his career as well.  I’m not saying he’s Curlin by any stretch of the imagination, but then again I don’t think I’ve seen the likes of Street Sense or Hard Spun in this crop either, so he doesn’t have to be Curlin.  Being Odysseus will suit him just fine.  Up next might be the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3.  Go get ‘em, Big Red horse!

  • #2 Lookin at Lucky

Baffert trained colt didn’t just come east and pass the dirt test, he overcame a trip from hell in the process to win a thrilling edition of the Grade 3 Rebel at Oaklawn Park.  Oaklawn has been the launching point of numerous 3-year-olds in recent seasons, including Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2008.  Baffert’s decision to ship the colt east to get a true dirt prep race under him before the Kentucky Derby was a sure sign of confidence, and Lucky delivered on that good faith gamble.  This colt seems to have all the tools to be a Derby winner and more.  Let’s just hope we haven’t seen the best of him yet.

  • #3 Eskendereya

Gets the Rodney Dangerfield treatment on this update, dropping two spots from the top of the list in our last update.  It’s through no fault of his own and certainly should not be interpreted as a sign of decreased confidence in the colt’s ability.  It’s just that I’ve hitched my wagons to Odysseus and thought Lucky may have won the most improbable prep race of the season. There’s no shame in being #3.  I’d still cover this guy as a win threat if the Kentucky Derby were tomorrow.  The son of Giant’s Causeway justly rests on the top of many such watch lists, and you’ll hear no complaint from me with that ranking.  Likely pointing to the Florida Derby.

  • #4 Awesome Act

Another horse that, like Odysseus last week, you won’t see ranked as aggressively on most Derby watch lists.  He looked dominating in the Gotham, even if that wasn’t the toughest prep race we’ve ever seen.  I won’t forgive myself all Triple Crown season for having publicly doubted this horse prior to that Gotham performance, and the impression he made on me was strong enough that I’ll continue to mention him as being my 2nd favorite horse on this list.  I think he’s seriously underrated by folks that are discounting that Gotham victory. If he shows up in the Wood Memorial, it could pit my 2 favorite 3-year-olds against one another.

  • #5 Rule

The horse that has bounced up and down the list all season, looking for some place to fit in.  I guess that’s kid of like a euphemism for his place in Todd Pletcher’s barn.  Eskendereya has got to be the top dog that rules the roost, but it was quoted that Pletcher was looking for a Grade 1 immediately following his commanding victory in the Sam F. Davis.  With Eskendereya possibly headed to the Florida Derby, that could mean Rule comes north and helps fill out a Wood Memorial field that could wind up extremely contentious.

  • #6 Discreetly Mine

Risen star winner might be a forgotten horse by some.  He knocked off Tempted to Tapit, Drosselmeyer, and Ron the Greek in that Risen Star victory, 3 horses I consider to be decent opponents.  I continue to question whether this horse will actually want to go 10 furlongs come the first Saturday in May, but if he can, he could offer some value on the tote board.  I’d also prefer to see him relax a bit early on.

  • #7 Conveyance

With the defeat of Caracortado in the San Felipe this weekend, Conveyance is the last of my infamous Cris Carter types that I’m so fond of.  All he does is win horse races, and he came east and won a race on the dirt, so we can’t hold that against him.  He may not be taking as glamorous a road to the Kentucky Derby as anyone else, and there are questions surrounding whether the son of Indian Charlie will get the distance of the Kentucky Derby, but he gives Baffert some options as the major Grade 1 preps start to appear on the horizon.

  • #8 Sidney’s Candy

I’ve said all along that this could be “any kind of horse.”  The son of Candy Ride got away with some soft fractions in the San Felipe and made a field of big named contenders pay for that mistake this past weekend.  We’ll hear distance questions with this horse as well until they are definitively answered (Candy Rides not being known to be classic distance horses), but keep in mind that there’s an exception to every rule.  Certainly can’t knock the horse for winning.

  • #9 Interactif

The biggest mover on the list who did not run a winning race last out.  The son of Broken View gave Todd Pletcher and company another serious Derby contender with a very impressive finish in the San Felipe behind Sidney’s Candy.  Versatile runner is effective on all dirt, turf, and synthetics.  He  made up at least two lengths on Sidney’s Candy in the stretch and lept of the screen for those viewing the race as one to keep an eye on.

  • #10 Noble’s Promise

Another non-winner who joins the list for the first time today.  Finish just a head behind Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel at Oaklawn.  This is a classy horse who has probably been under appreciated throughout the prep season thus far.  As a 2-year-old he won the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, and finished just a 1/2 length behind Vale of York and Lookin at Lucky in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita.  Trainer Ken McPeek and jockey Robby Albarado teamed with the son of Cuvee for the Rebel, but everyone from Martinez to Bejarano to Mena to Desormeaux has been aboard before.  I thought he ran a great race, and if not for an extremely valiant effort by Lookin at Lucky, we’d be looking at the Rebel winner here. For that alone he deserves consideration for a top 10 list.

Others to watch:

We continue to track a number of colts who did not make the top 10 list.  Some notable horses include Connemara, Caracortado, Super Saver (ye’s, he’s on my honorable mention list now as I thought he looked good despite needing a race), Schoolyard Dreams, Jackson Bend, Dave in Dixie, Buddy’s Saint, Drosselmeyer, and Ron the Greek.  Of course there are others, and the list changes with each passing moment.

Hard to believe it, but next weekend is already Florida Derby time.  We’ve also got the Swale lined up at well. Check back later in the week for updates on the major racing action ahead.


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Categories : Awesome Act, Eskendereya, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Lookin at Lucky

Derby Rankings: Hot Shots! Part Deux

9 03 2010

With less than 2 months to go before the famed “run for the roses” in the 2010 Kentucky Derby, it’s time to once again put pen to paper in what figures to be another futile attempt to make some sense of the contenders we’ve seen thus far.  The weekend past was a tale of two emotions: “Twas the best of times, twas the worst of times.”  We watched the emergence of a star-in-the-making in Awesome Act’s powerful Gotham performance.  Then we watched in disbelief as Blind Luck failed to catch Crisp at the wire in the Santa Anita Oaks, despite running her heart out in the stretch.

The defeat of Blind Luck means that I had to drop her off my Derby rankings list, especially since I only go 10 deep in the actual rankings.  I still think she’s as good as the top 10 colts around, and would expect a rebound next time out.  Real estate, however, becomes precious with so little time ahead.  The loss all but assures that if she travels to Churchill Downs, it will be to run in the Oaks rather than the Derby.  Personally, I’ll be holding out hope that she throttles the Oaks field and then points for the Preakness or Belmont.  A guy can wish, can’t he?

As for Awesome Act’s performance, let’s just say that heading into post he looked like a million bucks. I had advised playing against him in our selections for the Gotham that morning, but once anyone got a look at him in the post parade, it’s hard to imagine they didn’t have a fairly good idea of what was about to happen.  I wound up posting on Twitter that “if he runs as good as he looks, the Gotham might be over already.”

Sure enough, it was.

The weekend ahead figures to be equally as compelling.  The San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby, and the Rebel await.  Of course, the most important “prep” races happening this weekend aren’t likely to involve 3-year-olds.  The return of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra in the New Orleans Ladies and that of 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic champion Zenyatta in the Santa Margarita will be the biggest shows in town, and rightly so.  And just in time to start breaking out the grills and go exploring this vast expanse we’ve not seen for many months, formerly buried in snow, that locals refer to as “outside.”

Yes, there’s much to be excited about this time of year.  With that in mind, let’s take a look at the updated rankings of the contenders for the 2010 Kentucky Derby.

1. Eskendereya

No change at the top spot.  Todd Pletcher’s  son of Giant’s Causeway catapulted to the top of many Derby watch lists after his dominating performance in the Fountain of Youth.  Up next will be the Florida Derby.  At first I didn’t think I’d keep him on top for long, but now it’s starting to seem like it will take a pretty big performance in one of the Grade 1 preps to knock him from this position.  I’ve warmed to him.  He’s a legitimate #1 on such lists based on what we’ve seen from the crop overall.

2. Odysseus

A wise man once told me to always remember the horse you rode in on.  All kidding aside, I’m typically loyal to a fault, and this may well be another fait accompli for yours truly.  There was something Curlin-esque about this colt when I first saw him in a replay against allowance runners at Tampa Bay.  On the surface, he’s done nothing that warrants this aggressive a ranking, having not earned a single dollar of the all-important graded stakes money he’ll need to secure a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby on May 1st.  That being said, he’s slated to take on Super Saver and others in the Tampa Bay Derby.  If he’s anywhere near the horse I think he is, we’ll see it this weekend.  I’m trusting my gut on this one.  I think this is a race horse here, and a pretty darn good one at that.

3.  Lookin at Lucky

If he had stayed in California and not tried the dirt in any of his prep races, I was ready to keep ‘Lucky out of my top 3 positions all season long.  Now that Bob Baffert seems committed to having Lucky try the dirt in the Rebel, I’m interpreting the decision as a confident, bold move by a trainer who thinks he may have something special.  I applaud the decision by Baffert.  The synthetic-to-dirt angle was huge for several runners prepping for the Derby last season, and if not for the freak injury to I Want Revenge, may have been one of the primary story lines about last year’s Derby winner.  Ironically, in a round about way and due to his initial races at Woodbine, the synthetic-to-dirt angle did ultimately factor into the victory of 50/1 longshot Mine That Bird.  Many people that I trust insist this is a special horse.  If he wins big on the dirt in the Rebel against what figures to be a salty field, Eskendereya could have some company at the top of the list.  Also note that ‘Lucky will be wearing a hood for the first time as Baffert tries the blinkers-on approach.

4. Awesome Act

I struggled with where to properly rank the overnight sensation that has invaded our shores from across the pond.  Looked sensational prior to the Gotham and then ran like a horse that meant serious business.  Was the Gotham the toughest race we’ve ever seen?  Absolutely not, and there’s no question he’ll get tested by better horses in his next starts, but the point I’m focusing on his how “much the best” he was.  This guy is a legitimate Derby contender, and he’s got a jockey in Julien Leparoux that you just knew was going to wind up on a big time contender sooner or later.  Full disclosure?  Though I advocated playing against him in the Gotham, he’s probably my 2nd favorite on this list behind Odysseus.

5. Caracortado

I keep thinking of former Eagles and Vikings wide receiver Cris Carter whenever I think of this horse.  “All he does is win horse races.” Now that Lookin at Lucky has shipped east to Arkansas for the Rebel, “Scarface” finds himself the top dog in California at the moment.  I expected him to challenge Lucky if he had remained in California, and it looks like he should have a much easier time now if they chose to keep him local.  It’ll be hard to rank a horse higher until we see them on dirt, but this guy is a proven winner and figures to remain so for the foreseeable future.

If Cris Carter had been a thoroughbred, all he'd do is win horse races.

6. Rule

Probably the horse who suffers the most from the “what have you done for me lately?” syndrome that bloggers like me are self-described masters at.  Todd Pletcher’s run away winner of the Sam F. Davis will likely point to the Wood or the Florida Derby.  Considering Eskendereya is likely Florida Derby bound, my money would be on the Wood as his final destination.

7. Discreetly Mine

The most difficult of the ubiquitous Pletcher clan to put a finger on.  Folks either love him or hate him.  I think he beat 3 quality horses in Ron the Greek, Tempted to Tapit, and Drosselmeyer in the Risen Star.  Up next is likely the Louisiana Derby.  I’m still not sure if he’ll want 10 furlongs, or if he’ll be able to rate effectively, but if he answers positively to both of those questions he’s certainly talented enough to be a factor in the Derby.  In keeping with the theme of discretion in this horse’s name, I’ll confide that I sneakily swapped positions with Rule and Discreetly Mine since our initial rankings were published.

8. Dublin

Sort of an odd addition to the list considering he didn’t race this past weekend and was defeated in his most recent start.  Why the vertical move up my list then?  I toyed with ranking the 1st and 2nd place finishers of the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park in this spot.  The winner, Conveyance, does not appear to be pointing to any local races though, while the place horse, Dublin, will now get to run into yet another Bob Baffert monster in Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel.  I thought Dublin might’ve been the best horse in the Southwest, both before and after the race was run.  Could give Lucky some fits in the Rebel.

9. Conveyance

Another of the Cris Carter type runners that simply goes out and wins races.  The undefeated son Indian Charlie opened his career out west with victories that included the Grade 3 San Rafael on January 16.  The victory in the Southwest at Oaklawn proved he could handle the conventional dirt.  Isn’t that the knock we horseplayers always use on west coast horses until they come east?  Okay, so now that he’s bested that challenge, what next?  Well, thanks to Baffert sending Lookin at Lucky to Oaklawn for the Rebel, Conveyance has seemingly been officially relegated to “plan B” status.  He’ll be headed to the Sunland Park Derby for his next start if current indications prove true.

10.  Sidney’s Candy

I maintain that this could be any kind of horse.  The sensational winner of the San Vicente was at one point rumored to be considering the Gotham at Aqueduct.  Obviously that didn’t happen, and it appears the son of Candy Ride may be the best remaining challenger for Caracortado out of the California crop for the moment while Lucky visits the south.

Others to watch:

I’m keeping my eyes on several horses, including those we mentioned in our initial rankings like Dave in Dixie, Jackson Bend, Buddy’s Saint, Drosselmeyer, and Ron the Greek.  I guess you could add Alphie’s Bet to that list following his performance in the Sham.

One horse you may notice I haven’t mentioned yet is Super Saver.  I know many are extremely high on him and one might think that fresh off of the experience of publicly doubting Awesome Act I might be inclined to be accepting of such highly touted horses, but my thoughts remain that I need to see something for 2010 from this horse before I add him to the list.

Guess what?  He gets a chance to prove that to you and me this weekend, so the wait won’t be long.  It just so happens it’s my boy Odysseus he’s running against, and it goes without saying where my heart will be in that race.  Hopefully my wallet doesn’t follow with reckless abandon.


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Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail

Derby Rankings – An Exercise in Futility

22 02 2010

If the previous week has taught us anything, it’s that attempting to rank the prospects for the 2010 Kentucky Derby is a largely futile act that is rife with subjection, beset by imperfections, and of course a lightning rod for controversy.  Headed into the weekend, most folks (including yours truly) had Buddy’s Saint ranked in the top 3 on their Derby watch lists.  All that changed on Saturday following a hellacious trip in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park.

So where do we stand now?  Well, there is no definitively correct answer.  What follows is most certainly not an attempt to predict who may eventually outmaneuver each other in jockeying for a starting spot in the Derby, nor a reflection on the actual overall talent of the horses in question.  Doubtless, this list will continue to move wildly all over the place from week to week, with venerable favorites dropping like 10,000 pound rocks, and virtual unknowns rising to the top like some UFO shaped balloon purportedly piloted by young Falcon Heene.

In other words, it’s just my humble opinion – and only serves as a snapshot of this moment in time.  Indeed, my opinion on some of these runners changes from moment to moment. I’m willing to bet a good number of these horses don’t even get to so much as sniff the Kentucky air the first Saturday in May.  Probably the only authors out there who can pull off the “Derby watch list trick” with any real acumen are Steve Haskin and his “Derby Dozen” over on Bloodhorse, and Ron Correll over at TrackSideView.  With that said, let’s get on with the show, shall we?

1. ESKENDEREYA

Todd Pletcher’s runner moves into poll position for the moment based off his strong effort in the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes on 2/20.  Personally, I still have plenty of concerns about his more forwardly placed running style, as well as the way the Fountain of Youth essentially fell into his lap with the way Buddy’s Saint was handled, but there’s no denying that was a very good effort over the likes of such highly touted competitors as the aforementioned favorite (Buddy’s Saint), Aikenite, Pulsion, and Jackson Bend.  I’m not sure if any of the other runners in that field have legitimate shots at becoming Derby contenders, but this son of Giant’s Causeway did what he needed to do to move forward off of his Allowance level victory last out.   Whenever a horse shows improvement like that at a lower level, and then comes back and proves they can run to that same level against better – it tells me he’s a serious race horse.  I cannot see myself keeping this guy on top of this list for long as there’s now way I’d bet him if the Derby were tomorrow, but for now I’ll give him a tepid nod for the top spot.  Admittedly, I’m probably drinking the “what have you done for me lately” kool-aid here.

2. ODYSSEUS

You may have missed him if you blinked this past week.  That’s largely because he wasn’t running in the more highly heralded major prep races on Saturday.  Nope, instead, pulling his own Boise St. routine, Odysseus romped on a Wednesday afternoon over Allowance runners at Tampa Bay.  I know – that’s not exactly a hotbed for sudden Derby sensations to come stomping out of, but there’s something special about this guy.  He’s bred magnificently, and I love the way he dispatched winners the first time out so confidently.  If you remember what Curlin first looked like to you watching the replay of the Rebel in 2007, or the way Big Brown looked in his 2008 debut, I think there may be a little bit of that going on here.  We’ll obviously learn a lot more about this colt next out as he’s going to have to pick up some graded stakes earnings.  Is he a contender or a pretender?  For now, I’m sticking with contender and jumping squarely on the bandwagon.  I’ll say this for certain:  The entire 2010 Triple Crown season will be infinitely more “epic” if a horse named Odysseus is around.

3. DISCREETLY MINE

Another prep race, another Todd Pletcher trained winner.  The son of Mineshaft had never been over a mile before, but proved on Saturday in the G2 Risen Star that he could handle 8.5 furlongs with relative ease.  He’s another in Pletcher’s barn that has found himself setting the pace recently, and the world waits with bated breath to ensure these horses can eventually show signs of being able to win from coming off the pace.  I think of this horse as an x-factor, as folks seem to either be enormously high on him, or enormously critical.  I’m ranking him this high because I thought he was up against it taking on Drosselmeyer, Tempted to Tapit, and Ron the Greek – 3 horses that were being highly touted by folks whispering about possible Derby contenders.  None of them had anything for Discreetly Mine, who was never in doubt for a single step of the way.  Now, does he want to go 10 furlongs?  I’m not sure.  Pletcher probably considers Eskendereya and Rule his 1, 2 punches at the moment, but Discreetly Mine isn’t a bad plan-C to have around.

4.  RULE

Man, are we ever going to get away from Todd Pletcher’s runner?   This is absolute insanity.  Three of the top Four spots?  I think the most obvious observation is that these can’t possibly remain the way they are for long.  Rule  ran away with the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay earlier in the month.  Pletcher immediately commented that a Grade 1 race would be next (take your guess at which though).  Either way, he’s likely to run into tougher competition, including perhaps a stablemate or two.  I’m still not entirely sold that this is a top notch Derby horse, but based on his performance in the Sam F. Davis, he deserves to be ranked highly for now.

5.  LOOKIN AT LUCKY

I’d rank him a lot higher if I had any idea how he’d perform on dirt.  I know he’s impressive, and I know he’s very highly regarded, especially by our friends on the west coast that have had a chance to see him in person, but I can’t help but remember that  he lost in his own backyard to Vale of York in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  Baffert has mentioned he thinks Lucky will do well on dirt, and we must remember that several horses (I Want Revenge, Papa Clem, etc.) showed marked improvement coming east and taking the synthetic-to-dirt approach last year.   Another thing working in Lucky’s favor – this could be the year that the California 3-year-old crop is markedly better than its east coast rival.  In years past I’ve been a bit too high on the CA crop – maybe this year is the one not to be too critical?  I still want to see one dirt performance before making a final decision.

6.  VALE OF YORK

Arguably the hardest horse to keep on this list, despite the fact that he’s the reigning 2-year-old champion of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  He’s been in Dubai and is now headed to Europe and may not even make it to the Derby, but his exploits as a 2-year-old suggest he deserves to at least be a part of the discussion at the Derby table.  You’re going to have to keep your eye on him if you are following along, as you aren’t likely to hear a whole lot about him.  In fact, I’m almost certain that within a month it will be impossible to continue to rank him here, but until someone else impresses me equally, he’s here.  Being totally transparent, I will say that cashing a win bet at greater than 30/1 on Breeders’ Cup weekend on Vale of York definitely earned a soft spot in my heart for this son of Invincible Spirit.

7.  CARACORTADO

How can you not love a horse that is named for Al Pacino’s infamous Tony Montana character in the film Scarface?  ”Say hello to my lil’ friend!”  I’ve yet to see this guy race live, but many feel he’s going to give Lucky more than a handful if they both stay in California and take the Santa Anita Derby path to Churchill Downs.  A son of Cat Dreams, all he does is win over the synthetics.  He made short work of two highly touted Derby hopefuls in American Lion and Tiz Chrome (neither of whom looked particularly impressive) in the Robert Lewis.

8. JACKSON BEND

Stays on this list despite being dropped from many such lists across the country.  I just couldn’t knock the guy following 2 game efforts for place in the G3 Holy Bull (behind the now-injured Winslow Homer) and the G2 Fountain of Youth (behind current top dog Eskendereya).  So much for the knock that he was just a slightly above average Calder horse, or so it would appear.  The son of Hear no Evil rides for the Nick Zito barn, and has been either first or second in all 8 lifetime races.  We can say one thing with certainty: he has a knack for factoring into the exacta.

9. SIDNEY’S CANDY

Most folks remember 2009 as a solid season for the offspring of Candy Ride, most notably with Kentucky Derby hopeful Chocolate Candy.  Sidney’s Candy is yet another of the impressive looking Candy Ride line, and this one comes with a ton more speed than Chocolate Candy ever had.  I’ll be honest – this is an aggressive ranking – and a spot I seriously considered sticking instead with either Buddy’s Saint or Ron the Greek.   What has me sold on Sidney is potential.  He dropped jaws with his win in the San Vicente, and according to Ron Correll at Tracksideview, may be headed to the Gotham stakes next.  Could be any kind of horse.

10. BLIND LUCK

Just a few years ago, people would’ve scoffed at the notion of including a filly in a top 10 list for the Kentucky Derby.  Thanks to the recent exploits of fillies like Eight Belles, Rags to Riches, and of course Rachel Alexandra, such critics have been largely silenced.  Let’s be frank here (“stop calling me Shirley!!!”), in all likelihood she’s going to stay against 3-year-old fillies and will not face a colt the entire season.  At this point in time there’s absolutely no reason to suspect that her connections will even contemplate a run against 19 colts in the Kentucky Derby, and I can’t say I blame them for those sentiments.  I’ll admit that I’m holding out hope that she “pulls a Rachel” and winds up in Baltimore for the Preakness, but even that is probably wishful thinking at best.  I will say this – the colts rank higher than her on this list do not scare me enough to think she doesn’t still belong in the discussion.  Based on talent alone, if news were to drop tomorrow that her connections were thinking of the Derby, she’d move up several places on this list and become a serious contender.   Before you laugh, just remember that I said the same thing at this point in time last year about Rachel Alexandra, and the same thing in 2008 about Eight Belles and Pure Clan.

OTHER NOTABLES

Obviously you can’t rank everyone on your list.  I still think RON THE GREEK is a horse to keep an eye on.  He didn’t get much pace to run at  in the Risen Star and that probably cost him.  I’m also pretty high on DUBLIN (who gave a solid account of himself in the Southwest) and DAVE IN DIXIE, who is another that appears could be any kind of horse and is one to keep an eye on.  I’m going to make BUDDY”S SAINT and horses like SUPER SAVER show me something before they are brought back into the discussion.

Supremely disappointing this week?  DROSSELMEYER – where the heck was he in the Risen Star?  He seemed to be a consensus top 10 horse wherever you looked.  Huge disappointment.  I’m giving BUDDY”S SAINT some mercy here but not delving deeper into his debacle, but suffice to say that the whole trip was a nightmare.

So that’s where I stand for the moment.  What about you guys?


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail

Road to the Roses 2010

15 02 2010
It’s that time of year again, racing fans.  Next weekend, the first scoring races for the 2010 Road to the Roses fantasy challenge are set to kick off – which means you’d better get those stables filled out and registered now if you want to take part.  For racing fans, this is usually the most highly anticipated of fantasy contests on the year, generating quite a bit of buzz (including a Facebook group that boasts over 2900 “fans” – quite a feat considering only 380 folks on all of Facebook show up under a search for “horse racing” – meaning it must not be a popular interest that people have listed).
……………………..
Two leagues that I’m a part of would welcome your participation, if you haven’t registered already.  One is for the TBA group I proudly blog with.  The other is from our good friend Tencentcielo over on the TVG Community.  To get started, here’s the Brisnet PPs for Kentucky Derby Future Wagers Pool.

To access one of the leagues, just fill out your stable horses, jockeys, and trainers and then once you confirm your stable you’ll be asked if you wish to join an existing league.  Just type in the League ID and the Activation Code for the league as noted below.

Any user can create up to 3 free stables to participate in the contest.  The top overall prizes are always fairly sweet, including a trip to the Derby and a future wager.

  • TBA 2010
    • League ID: 3173203388
    • Activation Code: 2247553444
  • A Dime on the Ten
    • League ID: 2071312789
    • Activation Code: 1205335816

We’d certainly love to have more folks in those leagues to make things interesting, so give it a whirl and pass that information along to anyone you think may be interested.

For now, I think it’s safe to assume that volatility will be the order of the day.  To be sure, just a few day ago horses such as American Lion, Tiz Chrome, Lookin at Lucky, and UpTownCharlyBrown were receiving strong inclusion consideration.  I still think any of those can go on to be fine horses, but I sided against Lucky due to the synthetics question, and then passed on the Tiznows (which I KNOW will come back to haunt me) based on their most recent efforts.

Every year it seems like there’s more and more folks coming along who are first time players with some interest in getting involved in the challenge.  For them, I’ve included a breakdown of who I chose and why below.  Of course, it’s also for you more seasoned players, so that I can be reminded of my follies all season long.  A little humility is always good – especially for horseplayers.  Admittedly, I went with my heart on a few of these, but without further adieu, let’s get to the list, shall we?

Horses:

  • Buddy’s Saint – consensus top three Derby candidate, but questions about over who he’s faced are starting to be raised.  Has won going 9 furlongs on the dirt in the Grade 2 Remsen.  That counts for something.
  • Vale of York - my current #1 3-year-old colt in training.  Even though he’ll train overseas and may not run in any races that qualify for the challenge, I couldn’t leave him off the list.  He made an impression on me in the paddock for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and when I cashed on him at better than 30/1 a few moments later, suffice to say a soft spot grew in my heart for this son of Invincible Spirit.
  • Blind Luck - seems every year around this time I fall for a filly.  In 2008 it was Eight Belles and Pure Clan.  In 2009 it was Rachel Alexandra.  In all likelihood she will continue to point for the Kentucky Oaks rather than the Derby, but based on what we’ve seen so far, I think she deserves a place at the table based on potential alone.  She may be closer to Stardom Bound in terms of ceiling than Rachel Alexandra, but have we really seen any colts that would scare you away at this point?
  • Ron the Greek – I have to admit, I don’t think I gave this son of Full Mandate enough credit when he first won the Lecomte (G3) over Maximus Ruler.  He’d seem to need a pace in front of him for his prep and Derby chances, but so far that doesn’t seem to be something this crop is lacking.  In fact, so far Ron’s one of the few that looks authoritative coming from off the pace.  I would caution that Giacomo style dead closers don’t usually win the Derby, but in recent memory we do have Mine that Bird and Street Sense doing exactly that.  I’ll roll the dice.
  • William’s Kitten – Some folks may be deceived by the buzz surrounding this horse.  He’s speed figures don’t leap off the page, but if you appreciate a slow, steady, progression of races to build a foundation – the way trainers did in the not-so-long-ago, he begins to make a lot of sense.  Think on this, he’s run very well against Super Saver, Winslow Homer, Jackson Bend, and that 8th place finish in the BC Juvenile to Vale of York, Lookin at Lucky, and Noble’s Promise was better than you might think.  I think he’s a serious race horse.
  • Rule - probably the trendiest of my inclusions.  Pletcher has himself a horse with some speed in this son of Roman Ruler, and word is he’s headed for a Grade 1 next.  Considering how few opportunities one gets to score points in a Grade 1 during the contest, it’s nice to have a runner pointing for such a race.
  • Tempted to Tapit – Impressive 11 length winner last out took 4 starts to break his maiden and was beaten by another under consideration for this spot, Laus Deo.  Took the kind of explosive move forward last out that you want to see this time of year.  Still has many questions to answer though (distance, can he avoid a bounce, etc.).
  • Drosselmeyer – Another who took a significant step forward last out, and this time it was against winners for the first time, an accomplishment that suggests he’s got what it takes.  The son of Distorted Humor went 9 furlongs in 1:49 and 2 at the Allowance level on January 31st at Gulfstream Park; and he did it rating off the pace.  Looks like a very live contender to me.
  • Jackson Bend –   Took 4 consecutive ungraded stakes at Calder before finishing 2nd to Winslow Homer in the Holy Bull.  Could just be  a nondescript Calder horse, but there is something about him that I like, and that’s been amplified by the switch to the Nick Zito barn.
  • Setsuko - I’ll be honest, this horse was nowhere on my radar until TVG’s Matt Carothers mentioned him the other day.  Additionally Brad Free of the Daily Racing Form has mentioned this horse as one to keep an eye on.  He basically wasn’t anything until Richard Mandella put blinkers on him, and now he’s sort of a dark horse for the CA circuit.  Definitely a reach, but this was my final spot.

To fill out my stable, I selected Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher as my trainers, as each seems loaded this year with possibilities, and settled on Julien Leparoux and Garrett Gomez for my jockeys.  I know Go-Go burned me a bit last year by not accruing a ton of points, but he’s too consistently good a rider to avoid in my opinion.

So who scares me?   Well, it’s always dangerous to leave Lookin at Lucky off the list.  Same goes for runners like Eskendereya and Super Saver.  You know it pains me to leave the Tiznows off the list (American Lion and Tiz Chrome), but none of these horses has me worried that much.

The runners I’ll be losing sleep over not including are Laus Deo (nice looking Medaglia d’Oro colt), D’funnybone (who has really only turned in one bad race in the “synthetic Juvenile” last fall, and even then was a very good looking colt until about mid stretch), and any of the Afleet Alex offspring out there who look potentially promising.

The good news?  The first “supplemental draft” is slated for March 15 (with another coming on 4/12), so if I’ve whiffed on a Derby runner there will be two chances to make amends.

Speaking of which – I’ll go on record as saying I still don’t think we’ve seen a Derby winning caliber performance from any of these horses.  The whole thing is still wide open if someone wants to jump up and grab victory.

So what are you waiting for – download those past performances and get to handicapping!  It’s time to get serious about the 2010 Kentucky Derby prep races!

We’ll be back this weekend with previews of the Hutcheson, Risen Star, and Fountain of Youth.


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Categories : Fantasy Horse Racing, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail


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