Go ahead. Beat her if you can. California’s top three-year-old filly takes her next step today in the 70th running of the Santa Anita Oaks (Grade 1). Eight other fillies have lined up to challenge the daughter of Tapit who continues to flirt with Kentucky Derby dreams. On a day that feature arguably the most competitive race of the year in the $1,000,000 Santa Anita Handicap, the return of Stardom Bound in the Santa Anita Oaks figures to be the most compelling story of the day. The field sets up like this:
- Stardom Bound (M. Smith/R. Frankel) 2/5*
- Burg Berg (T. Baze/P. Gonzalez) 10/1
- Miss Silver Brook (A. Solis/J. Canani) 12/1
- Hooh Why (R. Albarado/ C. Gaines) 15/1
- Stormy Slew (J. Velazquez/D. O’Neill) 30/1
- Nan (C. Nakatani/ C. Dollase) 15/1
- Will O Way (R. Baze/ V. Cerin) 8/1
- Beltene (J. Rosario/ J. Carava) 15/1
- Third Dawn (J. Sadler/R. Bejarano) 30/1
A victory here could propel Stardom Bound to the Santa Anita Derby and beyond. A defeat and her connections may have to regroup. While on paper she may look entirely like a 2/5 favorite, we’ve all seen her visually and know she has at least a fraction of the same special qualities we see in Zenyatta. She’s the class of her field, and nobody is going to touch her today.
A horse that I think can really get up into the money at some long odds is Beltene. All this horse has done is rattle off 3 lifetime victories in as many starts. She’s beaten 22 horses thus far. I’m not saying she’ll beat Stardom Bound, but beyond the obvious favorite there aren’t any that look like monsters in here. At 15/1 I’ll bite that this one can wind up in the money. The distance will be the obvious question.
Hooh Why is another horse at longer odds that I think could make some noise here. The angle that leaps out at you is the fine finish behind the highly regarded Patena in the Display at Woodbine on 12/6/08. She doesn’t seem to run bad races either. Love seeing a filly who has battled with colts (and good ones at that) and run a big race. My money says she’ll be a player here for a minor award.
Burg Berg is an obvious contender for the exacta as she will likely control the early pace. Stardom Bound will be looking to run her down to stretch to score. I’m not sure if she wants to go the distance today. If she can hang on she’s a logical choice for place. If she fades she’ll likely be off the board. Ultimately I think you’ve got to use her.
Miss Silver Brook is another who could take some play. Trainer Julio Canani is already having a brilliant 2009 campaign thanks to the top dog in his stable, The Pamplemousse. This filly seems to have been training lights out recently and could be picking off horses late.
Lastly you have to consider the other horses with graded stakes experience; Nan and Will O Way. Of those two I prefer Will O Way at the 1 1/16 mile distance.
I’ll play Stardom Bound on top and look to catch some value underneath with Miss Silver Brook, Burg Berg, and Beltene in place. I’ll add in Hooh Why and Will O Way for show. We’ll round it out with Nan and Third Dawn on the bottom.
Selections:
- $20 Win #1 Stardom Bound
- $.10 Superfecta: 1/2,3,8/2,3,4,7,8/2,3,4,6,7,8,9 ($6.00)
Looking over the rest of the Santa Anita card. The Big Cap looks like a tremendous betting race, especially with the defection of lukewarm favorite Colonel John. I like Einstein to run a big figure over the Pro Ride. You could make a case for virtually the entire field though. Just an excellent race from top to bottom. In the Fank Kilroe I like the filly, Ventura.
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